1
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So I think from a timing perspective, we're getting into a time where the

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market is right for a top.
My extreme upside targets that I've been in

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has been focused for the last three
to six months, was that maybe crude

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could get back to the ninety six
dollar level, but I didn't expect to

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go any higher than that, and
that, like I said, is a

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real extreme. If the perfect combination
of factor, there's work to take hold.

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But my main upside objective right now
is right around the eighty to ninety

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00:00:44,000 --> 00:00:49,759
dollars level. You're listening to Carrie
Let's Financial Survival Network where you get valuable

9
00:00:49,759 --> 00:00:55,320
information you just can't find anywhere else
to thrive in today's trying times. You

10
00:00:55,359 --> 00:01:00,960
need the Financial Survival Network now more
than ever. Financial Survival and Network dot

11
00:01:00,960 --> 00:01:08,000
com and get your free newsletter in
Gift Financial Survival Network now more than ever.

12
00:01:11,480 --> 00:01:17,200
And welcome you are listening to the
Financial Survival Network. I'm your host,

13
00:01:17,319 --> 00:01:22,920
Kerry Lets. It's nine thirteen twenty
three and Well market's kind of been

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00:01:23,040 --> 00:01:26,359
zigzagging a little bit. What's going
to happen next? Let's talk with our

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00:01:26,400 --> 00:01:33,680
good friend Eric Adick. You find
him at Well Inside with two eyes I

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00:01:33,959 --> 00:01:38,959
N S I I D E track
dot com and Eric, it's great to

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00:01:38,959 --> 00:01:42,680
have you back on Hey, first, what's your main U r L For

18
00:01:42,719 --> 00:01:47,879
those of you out there who want
to check out Eric's workout, Well,

19
00:01:47,920 --> 00:01:51,519
thanks for having me back, Cherry, and the main U r L is

20
00:01:51,920 --> 00:01:56,560
Insights track Trading dot Com. So, like you said inside with that extra

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00:01:56,599 --> 00:02:01,000
I in the middle, I N
S I I D E Track Trading dot

22
00:02:01,040 --> 00:02:05,599
Com. All right, and the
link to that's in the show notes on

23
00:02:05,640 --> 00:02:09,800
this interview on Financial Survival Network dot
com. While you're there to sign up

24
00:02:09,800 --> 00:02:14,000
for your free newsletter. If you
got any questions for Eric or myself,

25
00:02:14,000 --> 00:02:16,479
we really want to hear from you, shoot me an email k L at

26
00:02:16,560 --> 00:02:21,800
Kerrelts dot com. So, Eric, when we last spoke, you weren't

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very optimistic about the stock indexes.
Anything changed, Well, it all depends

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on what perspective you're talking about.
I think that in general, stocks are

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still going through a multi year topping
process. So from that perspective, I'm

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not overly bullish. Coming into this
year. We had a host of on

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three to six months, six to
twelve month cycles that were bottoming out in

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the beginning of the year. And
completing what I thought would be the first

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significant sell off and equities. We
got that in in January and kind of

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reinforced it in the months that followed. Since then, we've seen a lot

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of two sided trading in many of
the indexities. I think one of the

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time frames that I was warning listeners
and readers about was from late July into

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mid to late August, you had
kind of a negative cycle when you could

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see all some selling. We got
that pretty much on schedule, and now

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you're in a period where some of
the indexes are poised to rally to newer

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highs on the year, whereas others
are showing continuing weakness for lack of a

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better term, and it's not weakness
as if it's about to fall apart,

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but on a relative basis. I
think one of the really interesting indexes,

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and if you look at the RUSS
two thousand over the last couple of years,

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and particularly all this rebound from June
and or September of the last year,

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when it's at a double bottom,
that index was able to recover enough

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to neutralize some of its negative trends, but not turn them up. And

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at the same time you have some
long term averages and other indicators rolling over

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and starting to turn negative on an
even broader perspective, And so that index

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gives a much different perspective than some
of you were stronger indexes like the NAZZAC

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one hundred. But I think that
early twenty twenty four is when we enter

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another period where there's a higher higher
probability for a new sell off in stock.

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So that's kind of my time horizon
and quantifying bullush or bearish on the

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stocks. It comes down to which
timeframe you're talking about. Within there.

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Right now, I think that stocks
could see a little more upside. I

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think you're going to see a couple
of the sell offs between now and year

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end, but equally so some intervening
rallies until we get to that early twenty

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twenty four time frames. So we
are two sided action than anything. Okay,

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And one thing we've seen is interest
rates the FED has continued to hike.

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Is that trend going to continue?
I think that be not only my

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work, but the general consensus is
showing that there it's time for a assault

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in that now. Whether they're going
to drop them as aggressively in twenty twenty

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four, as many of the traders
and economists for we're expecting and we're projecting

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that I think is starting to come
into question that Whereas you know, there

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was talk of I think four or
five rate cuts next year, now let's

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talk of maybe three, and so
you get that perception that drives the market

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and future perception. So whether they
raise rates again at any point in the

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near future, which I think is
becoming less and less likely, Traders are

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already looking ahead to what they expect
for the first part of twenty twenty four.

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And I think, once again I
probably sound like a broken record with

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this, but that four year cycle
in bonds and notes has been just uncanny

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in its accuracy, and it helped
pinpoint the July twenty twenty peak in bonds

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and notes, which was a corresponding
low in interest rates. Prior to that,

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it had set a previous peak in
July of twenty sixteen, and prior

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to that in July August of twenty
twelve. And I think that that same

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cycle, along with many corroborating cycles, is saying to look for a rebound

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peak in bonds and notes in around
July of twenty twenty four. That would

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mean a corresponding low after a dip
in interest rates at that same time.

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So from not only that cycle that's
just something that I use as a backdrop,

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but from a lot of other timing
into caters I have. My work

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still shows that we see the initial
upswinging interest rates into the current time frame.

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Then you see kind of a plateau
or a topping phase. Then you

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should get a brief dip in rates
in first quarter and second quarter next year.

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But after that I think things will
get even more interesting heading into late

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twenty twenty four, that into twenty
twenty five. Okay, so you know

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one thing that interest rates housing very
interest rates sensitive. And yet over the

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past couple of months we've seen the
home builders, the big publicly traded home

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builders like Lenard Poulty, Toll Brothers, h hit all time highs during that

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time. Now they're about five to
ten percent off their peak. Can we

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glean anything from that? I think
you can clean that they're doing things more

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efficiently and generating profits more. And
you go back to the beginning of COVID

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and the different things that have shifted
with with home building. For starting with

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the escalation in we're all resources prices, when lumber quadrupled and contempled in price

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and other resources, is just shot
through the roof and you had libor shortage

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if I A lot of these home
builders go about their their construction a lot

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more prudently, and even though there
was a burgeoning demand for homes, they're

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not building lear as quickly or as
haphazardly as we've done in past cycles.

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Yes, that's helping the bottom line, but it's also extending this overly elevated

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price in homes because the supply is
not there. And anyone who previously had

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thought about selling a home and either
upbreeding or downsizing, they can't stand the

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thought of trading in at three percent
mortgage and having to take out a six

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percent mortgage, so they're just not
so the supply that normally would be there

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in a normal real estate cycle is
not there. So it's artificially driving up

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the price of homes and you could
out in the foreseeable future, get one

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of these a little bit of a
domino effect where you get rate starts come

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down a little bit, you get
more people selling homes, you get the

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builders willing to you will commit a
little bit more, and then you get

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prices start to come down, and
that creates its own reality moving forward.

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So the stocks of those home builders
I think is a reflection of some things

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that have gone on the last year
or two, But I don't know if

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they have a lot of future prognosticating
effects in those in those elevated prices of

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our stock. All right, we
can see that there're definitely other things besides

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interest rates that dictate home demand and
supply. And the fact that nobody wants

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to get out of their low rate
mortgages to go downsize and wind up paying

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more per month than they were before
is definitely one of those trends. All

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right, So Oil, you were
calling for higher prices. We're now at

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the highs of twenty twenty three.
Do we go higher? Do we break

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a hundred? Well, I've been
all along looking at the time frame that

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we're now coming into. For the
last three months, I just kept repeatedly

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saying, pruned and the products should
head higher into middle of September, and

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that's when ill some of my initial
cycles would begin to peak. But from

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an even broader perspective, you've got
a fairly consistent five year cycle, and

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that's also the midpoint of the broader
ten year cycle. All of which are

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00:12:35,200 --> 00:12:41,600
I'll arguing for a peak here in
the September October time frame. So I

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think from a timing perspective, we're
getting into a time where the market is

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right for a top. My extreme
upside targets that I've been in has been

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focused for the last three to sex
months, was that maybe CREWDE could get

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00:13:03,720 --> 00:13:09,399
back to the ninety six dollars level, but I didn't expect to go any

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higher than that, and that,
like I said, is a real extreme.

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If the perfect combination of factor there's
works, you take hold. But

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my main upside objective right now is
right around the eight to ninety dollars level,

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where I think that crew should run
into a lot of resistance. Okay,

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00:13:31,720 --> 00:13:35,879
so when you talk about CREWDE,
we also often look at that gas

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which has been trading low lower since
since earlier in the year when it was

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you know, our last summer when
it was at ten dollars per mcf.

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Yeah, natural bs certainly crashed in
price as our supply continued to increase,

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00:13:56,000 --> 00:14:01,879
and it's been in what I believe
is the bottoming phase. In early June,

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it's set an initial bottom and has
held that ever since. That was

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00:14:09,480 --> 00:14:15,679
really when a lot of multi month
and one of the two year cycles were

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00:14:15,720 --> 00:14:24,200
anticipating a bottom. But there's been
a very fairly consistent three months well swing

140
00:14:24,679 --> 00:14:28,639
type of cycle in natural gas,
going from highs to highs, that highs

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00:14:28,639 --> 00:14:37,080
to lows, and that initially bottomed
in early June, but then it's all

142
00:14:37,080 --> 00:14:41,960
it showed that we should see a
secondary low and early September and we're just

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00:14:41,200 --> 00:14:46,600
coming through that. So I think
that natural gas is building a base,

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00:14:48,639 --> 00:14:54,240
but it's still there's still is some
time before key indicators who'd be able to

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00:14:56,200 --> 00:15:03,000
start to turn more positives and produce
act more of the sustained and substantial rally.

146
00:15:03,200 --> 00:15:09,159
So I think we're still in this
basing period and there's a couple of

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00:15:09,639 --> 00:15:15,840
key factors I need to see kick
in before I think that natural basket really

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00:15:15,919 --> 00:15:24,799
sustained an uplove. What about the
gold precious kennels and gold is still I

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00:15:24,919 --> 00:15:28,399
know when we talked last time,
I was well, first of all,

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00:15:28,480 --> 00:15:33,879
we were kind of reviewing the discussion
from the previous time that gold really had

151
00:15:35,240 --> 00:15:41,240
a very significant cycle top in early
May and I didn't expect it to see

152
00:15:41,279 --> 00:15:50,279
another comparable high until early November.
And in between when we talked back in

153
00:15:50,360 --> 00:15:56,080
journeistic it's gold still had some more
downside potential before its foot I'll begin a

154
00:15:58,519 --> 00:16:06,399
more significant rally. And for four
or five months I just kept my readers

155
00:16:06,519 --> 00:16:11,720
focused on the middle half of August
as the time when the next cycle low

156
00:16:11,919 --> 00:16:18,080
in gold should take hold, and
that is pretty much what we've seen.

157
00:16:19,720 --> 00:16:26,960
Both the medals and the mining shares
all headed steadily lower from the early May

158
00:16:26,360 --> 00:16:33,000
cycle highs into August seventeenth to the
twenty first, which was the ideal time

159
00:16:33,200 --> 00:16:38,480
for a bottom. Based on monthly, weekly daily cycles, there's a very

160
00:16:38,600 --> 00:16:47,360
consistent twenty three weeks cycle in gold
in the XU index, and once again

161
00:16:48,240 --> 00:16:55,399
those markets bottom lockstep with that cycle
in the latter part of August. So

162
00:16:55,559 --> 00:17:03,279
we're in the weeks following that cycle
low starting to build a little bit of

163
00:17:03,320 --> 00:17:10,079
a higher base, higher plateau.
And I have said all along that I

164
00:17:10,240 --> 00:17:18,440
thought the bullish phase, moderately bullish
phase for gold would not arrive until the

165
00:17:18,519 --> 00:17:22,359
second half of September, first half
of October, and that, like I

166
00:17:22,400 --> 00:17:29,359
said, it's just the beginning of
when some of these timing indicators I follow

167
00:17:30,079 --> 00:17:37,240
would start to turn to the upside. My focus or My warning has been

168
00:17:37,319 --> 00:17:44,839
all long that very often gold will
see the majority of its move in just

169
00:17:45,359 --> 00:17:51,039
the final weeks prior to a cycle
high. So if I'm looking for a

170
00:17:51,119 --> 00:17:57,559
cycle high in early November, that
means really the weeks leading into that through

171
00:17:57,680 --> 00:18:06,920
October are the time when you often
would see a stronger rally. So that

172
00:18:07,039 --> 00:18:11,720
kind of fits with these indicators starting
to turn positive or having the potential turn

173
00:18:11,799 --> 00:18:18,839
positive in second half of September,
more likely in the first half of October,

174
00:18:19,279 --> 00:18:25,039
and so I think we could get
a nice intermediate rally there. But

175
00:18:25,559 --> 00:18:30,599
gold is still going to have some
headwinds working against it until we get past

176
00:18:32,680 --> 00:18:37,880
early twenty twenty four. Okay,
and finally, what about the dollar.

177
00:18:37,519 --> 00:18:45,640
The dollar is one of those headwinds
that I think is on keeping gold intact.

178
00:18:47,160 --> 00:18:52,799
And I believe that the dollars set
an initial bottom this year, but

179
00:18:53,079 --> 00:18:59,079
that that was just the first sell
off that we will see in the dollar

180
00:19:00,319 --> 00:19:06,039
throughout this year. I've been devoting
a decent amount of my monthly newsletter and

181
00:19:06,400 --> 00:19:14,799
the opening comments and analysis to this
thinking that I have that we have entered

182
00:19:14,880 --> 00:19:21,519
a new forty year cycles of currency
wars, and I explained that in more

183
00:19:21,599 --> 00:19:29,960
detail in my publications, but that
one of the key things within that long

184
00:19:30,160 --> 00:19:36,640
term cycle is a transition for the
dollar, and I think that we are

185
00:19:36,839 --> 00:19:45,400
just in the very early stages of
that. And my intermediate work is showing

186
00:19:45,480 --> 00:19:52,799
that the dollar should rebound from mid
July when three to six month cycles bottomed

187
00:19:52,440 --> 00:19:59,400
into January of twenty twenty four.
But at that point, I'm looking for

188
00:19:59,640 --> 00:20:03,200
a secondary, a lower high in
the dollar, and then things start to

189
00:20:03,279 --> 00:20:11,839
get a little more negative for the
dollar in the one of the two years

190
00:20:11,960 --> 00:20:15,759
that follow that timeframe, and that's
when I think you'll also see more of

191
00:20:15,799 --> 00:20:23,440
an opportunity for gold and for other
anti dollar type of vehicles. So I

192
00:20:23,519 --> 00:20:30,799
think the dollar is in this phase
of tracing out a long time major top.

193
00:20:32,160 --> 00:20:40,240
But again that's we're talking multi year
type of cycles and trends, so

194
00:20:40,759 --> 00:20:45,920
it doesn't all happen at once.
It doesn't mean that the dollar suddenly collapses

195
00:20:47,000 --> 00:20:52,440
in six or twelve months. It
means that it's going through a longer term

196
00:20:52,559 --> 00:20:59,319
transition phase. And I've laid out
a lot of the reasons, fundamental and

197
00:20:59,400 --> 00:21:07,319
technical, but you certainly sought another
affirmation. Another duck lining up in a

198
00:21:07,480 --> 00:21:15,759
row in late August when the Bricks
Nations had their annual meeting and announced that

199
00:21:15,920 --> 00:21:22,680
they were inviting Saudi Arabia and actually
five other countries to join BRICKS. And

200
00:21:23,640 --> 00:21:34,200
these are all countries that want to
get out from under the US dollar supremacy

201
00:21:34,559 --> 00:21:41,960
and being forced to use US dollar
for a lot of their trade. And

202
00:21:41,839 --> 00:21:48,319
it's a it's a slow, steady
process, but it's it's looking to break

203
00:21:48,559 --> 00:21:53,519
that hegemony of the US dollar.
And over the coming years, I think

204
00:21:53,559 --> 00:22:00,039
you're going to see steady movement in
that direction, and there will be key

205
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times within that when when the dollar
suffers some reactive sell offs as this topping

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process continues to unfold. All right, So, if I remember correctly,

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you were kind of called the election
based on the strength of the dollar last

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time. The dollar usually goes higher
during democratic presidencies and lower during Republican presidencies.

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Do you think this is maybe predictive
here at this point? I don't

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see that. I don't see as
clear of an indication. Yeah, last

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time, in the six to eight
months heading into the election, it was

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looking very clear that the dollars should
bottom and begin a new unmulti year rally,

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which, yes, as I described, has been very consistent in democratic

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administrations. With the dollar going through
this topping process, it's going to have

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as much of a determining factor on
whether whether we see several years all of

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two sided type of action as that
whole transition unfolds, or whether we see

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a really sharp sell off. Looking
into your say, twenty twenty five,

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which would be the first year of
a new administration, it certainly could have

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that that precursor nuanced to it,
and I'll be looking at that more closely

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coming into next year, But right
now I don't see strong enough evidence to

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go one way or the other in
that. Okay, interesting, Interesting,

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and any other markets we should be
looking at where you're seeing trends shift or

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perhaps exacerbate, I don't know that
there's any that really stand out right now.

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You know. I've been looking at
one particular grain and the wheat market

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to set up bottom in here,
but that could take some time before it

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starts to build a base. I've
been looking at cryptos, bitcoin and etc.

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As having a negative cycle from the
nit July when intermediate cycles peaked,

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stretching out into November when I anticipate
the next significant bottom. But in both

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of those cases that means you've got
the potential for a lot of two sided

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trading one to two weeks trends in
each direction, so that needs to be

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kind of focused on in a more
microscopic perspective as post or broad perspectives.

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All right, so interesting times ahead. Sounds like there's going to be a

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lot of volatility and a lot of
uncertainty in the world. Yeah. I

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think there's definitely the potential for a
couple black swan events over the next year

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or so, especially based on how
some of the markets you're lining up,

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But you can't really plan for them
per se, other than just making sure

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you're sharing to get strong money management
principles and following the trends because usually those

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future events chests of shadows before.
All right, well, hey appreciate you

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00:25:59,440 --> 00:26:03,200
coming on and sharing your review of
the future with us. Can you just

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00:26:03,319 --> 00:26:07,640
tell us again your site where we
find you, how we subscribe. Yes,

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00:26:08,039 --> 00:26:14,119
you can go to your inside track
Trading dot com, inside me the

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00:26:14,200 --> 00:26:18,079
extra I in the middle, so
it's I N S I I D E

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00:26:18,720 --> 00:26:26,319
track Trading dot Com and Nick Fine
owns many archives, reports, newsletters,

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00:26:26,519 --> 00:26:32,799
samples, and also information on subscription
packages. All right, excellent, Hey,

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00:26:32,839 --> 00:26:37,640
if you got a question for Eric
or myself, please just send me

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00:26:37,720 --> 00:26:42,039
an email k l at krylts dot
com. We'll get you an answer as

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00:26:42,119 --> 00:26:47,480
quick as we can. And while
you're at it, you'll find the link

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00:26:47,799 --> 00:26:52,319
in the show notes to this interview
on Financial Survival Network dot com. Just

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00:26:52,839 --> 00:26:56,160
click it, take your right to
eric site, and while you're there,

250
00:26:56,200 --> 00:26:59,720
sign up for your free newsletter.
Eric. Always a pleasure. Great to

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00:26:59,799 --> 00:27:03,920
have you back on. We're going
to be watching your forecast closely and see

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00:27:03,960 --> 00:27:07,599
what happens next. Thanks for having
me back. Carry, thanks for listening

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00:27:07,720 --> 00:27:12,880
to Carry Lens's Financial Survival Network,
your solution to today's trying times. For

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00:27:14,000 --> 00:27:18,920
the latest, go to Financial Survival
Network dot com. Financial Survival Network now

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00:27:19,400 --> 00:27:21,160
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