So I think from a timing perspective, we're getting into a time where the
market is right for a top. My extreme upside targets that I've been in
has been focused for the last three to six months, was that maybe crude
could get back to the ninety six dollar level, but I didn't expect to
go any higher than that, and that, like I said, is a
real extreme. If the perfect combination of factor, there's work to take hold.
But my main upside objective right now is right around the eighty to ninety
dollars level. You're listening to Carrie Let's Financial Survival Network where you get valuable
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And welcome you are listening to the Financial Survival Network. I'm your host,
Kerry Lets. It's nine thirteen twenty three and Well market's kind of been
zigzagging a little bit. What's going to happen next? Let's talk with our
good friend Eric Adick. You find him at Well Inside with two eyes I
N S I I D E track dot com and Eric, it's great to
have you back on Hey, first, what's your main U r L For
those of you out there who want to check out Eric's workout, Well,
thanks for having me back, Cherry, and the main U r L is
Insights track Trading dot Com. So, like you said inside with that extra
I in the middle, I N S I I D E Track Trading dot
Com. All right, and the link to that's in the show notes on
this interview on Financial Survival Network dot com. While you're there to sign up
for your free newsletter. If you got any questions for Eric or myself,
we really want to hear from you, shoot me an email k L at
Kerrelts dot com. So, Eric, when we last spoke, you weren't
very optimistic about the stock indexes. Anything changed, Well, it all depends
on what perspective you're talking about. I think that in general, stocks are
still going through a multi year topping process. So from that perspective, I'm
not overly bullish. Coming into this year. We had a host of on
three to six months, six to twelve month cycles that were bottoming out in
the beginning of the year. And completing what I thought would be the first
significant sell off and equities. We got that in in January and kind of
reinforced it in the months that followed. Since then, we've seen a lot
of two sided trading in many of the indexities. I think one of the
time frames that I was warning listeners and readers about was from late July into
mid to late August, you had kind of a negative cycle when you could
see all some selling. We got that pretty much on schedule, and now
you're in a period where some of the indexes are poised to rally to newer
highs on the year, whereas others are showing continuing weakness for lack of a
better term, and it's not weakness as if it's about to fall apart,
but on a relative basis. I think one of the really interesting indexes,
and if you look at the RUSS two thousand over the last couple of years,
and particularly all this rebound from June and or September of the last year,
when it's at a double bottom, that index was able to recover enough
to neutralize some of its negative trends, but not turn them up. And
at the same time you have some long term averages and other indicators rolling over
and starting to turn negative on an even broader perspective, And so that index
gives a much different perspective than some of you were stronger indexes like the NAZZAC
one hundred. But I think that early twenty twenty four is when we enter
another period where there's a higher higher probability for a new sell off in stock.
So that's kind of my time horizon and quantifying bullush or bearish on the
stocks. It comes down to which timeframe you're talking about. Within there.
Right now, I think that stocks could see a little more upside. I
think you're going to see a couple of the sell offs between now and year
end, but equally so some intervening rallies until we get to that early twenty
twenty four time frames. So we are two sided action than anything. Okay,
And one thing we've seen is interest rates the FED has continued to hike.
Is that trend going to continue? I think that be not only my
work, but the general consensus is showing that there it's time for a assault
in that now. Whether they're going to drop them as aggressively in twenty twenty
four, as many of the traders and economists for we're expecting and we're projecting
that I think is starting to come into question that Whereas you know, there
was talk of I think four or five rate cuts next year, now let's
talk of maybe three, and so you get that perception that drives the market
and future perception. So whether they raise rates again at any point in the
near future, which I think is becoming less and less likely, Traders are
already looking ahead to what they expect for the first part of twenty twenty four.
And I think, once again I probably sound like a broken record with
this, but that four year cycle in bonds and notes has been just uncanny
in its accuracy, and it helped pinpoint the July twenty twenty peak in bonds
and notes, which was a corresponding low in interest rates. Prior to that,
it had set a previous peak in July of twenty sixteen, and prior
to that in July August of twenty twelve. And I think that that same
cycle, along with many corroborating cycles, is saying to look for a rebound
peak in bonds and notes in around July of twenty twenty four. That would
mean a corresponding low after a dip in interest rates at that same time.
So from not only that cycle that's just something that I use as a backdrop,
but from a lot of other timing into caters I have. My work
still shows that we see the initial upswinging interest rates into the current time frame.
Then you see kind of a plateau or a topping phase. Then you
should get a brief dip in rates in first quarter and second quarter next year.
But after that I think things will get even more interesting heading into late
twenty twenty four, that into twenty twenty five. Okay, so you know
one thing that interest rates housing very interest rates sensitive. And yet over the
past couple of months we've seen the home builders, the big publicly traded home
builders like Lenard Poulty, Toll Brothers, h hit all time highs during that
time. Now they're about five to ten percent off their peak. Can we
glean anything from that? I think you can clean that they're doing things more
efficiently and generating profits more. And you go back to the beginning of COVID
and the different things that have shifted with with home building. For starting with
the escalation in we're all resources prices, when lumber quadrupled and contempled in price
and other resources, is just shot through the roof and you had libor shortage
if I A lot of these home builders go about their their construction a lot
more prudently, and even though there was a burgeoning demand for homes, they're
not building lear as quickly or as haphazardly as we've done in past cycles.
Yes, that's helping the bottom line, but it's also extending this overly elevated
price in homes because the supply is not there. And anyone who previously had
thought about selling a home and either upbreeding or downsizing, they can't stand the
thought of trading in at three percent mortgage and having to take out a six
percent mortgage, so they're just not so the supply that normally would be there
in a normal real estate cycle is not there. So it's artificially driving up
the price of homes and you could out in the foreseeable future, get one
of these a little bit of a domino effect where you get rate starts come
down a little bit, you get more people selling homes, you get the
builders willing to you will commit a little bit more, and then you get
prices start to come down, and that creates its own reality moving forward.
So the stocks of those home builders I think is a reflection of some things
that have gone on the last year or two, But I don't know if
they have a lot of future prognosticating effects in those in those elevated prices of
our stock. All right, we can see that there're definitely other things besides
interest rates that dictate home demand and supply. And the fact that nobody wants
to get out of their low rate mortgages to go downsize and wind up paying
more per month than they were before is definitely one of those trends. All
right, So Oil, you were calling for higher prices. We're now at
the highs of twenty twenty three. Do we go higher? Do we break
a hundred? Well, I've been all along looking at the time frame that
we're now coming into. For the last three months, I just kept repeatedly
saying, pruned and the products should head higher into middle of September, and
that's when ill some of my initial cycles would begin to peak. But from
an even broader perspective, you've got a fairly consistent five year cycle, and
that's also the midpoint of the broader ten year cycle. All of which are
I'll arguing for a peak here in the September October time frame. So I
think from a timing perspective, we're getting into a time where the market is
right for a top. My extreme upside targets that I've been in has been
focused for the last three to sex months, was that maybe CREWDE could get
back to the ninety six dollars level, but I didn't expect to go any
higher than that, and that, like I said, is a real extreme.
If the perfect combination of factor there's works, you take hold. But
my main upside objective right now is right around the eight to ninety dollars level,
where I think that crew should run into a lot of resistance. Okay,
so when you talk about CREWDE, we also often look at that gas
which has been trading low lower since since earlier in the year when it was
you know, our last summer when it was at ten dollars per mcf.
Yeah, natural bs certainly crashed in price as our supply continued to increase,
and it's been in what I believe is the bottoming phase. In early June,
it's set an initial bottom and has held that ever since. That was
really when a lot of multi month and one of the two year cycles were
anticipating a bottom. But there's been a very fairly consistent three months well swing
type of cycle in natural gas, going from highs to highs, that highs
to lows, and that initially bottomed in early June, but then it's all
it showed that we should see a secondary low and early September and we're just
coming through that. So I think that natural gas is building a base,
but it's still there's still is some time before key indicators who'd be able to
start to turn more positives and produce act more of the sustained and substantial rally.
So I think we're still in this basing period and there's a couple of
key factors I need to see kick in before I think that natural basket really
sustained an uplove. What about the gold precious kennels and gold is still I
know when we talked last time, I was well, first of all,
we were kind of reviewing the discussion from the previous time that gold really had
a very significant cycle top in early May and I didn't expect it to see
another comparable high until early November. And in between when we talked back in
journeistic it's gold still had some more downside potential before its foot I'll begin a
more significant rally. And for four or five months I just kept my readers
focused on the middle half of August as the time when the next cycle low
in gold should take hold, and that is pretty much what we've seen.
Both the medals and the mining shares all headed steadily lower from the early May
cycle highs into August seventeenth to the twenty first, which was the ideal time
for a bottom. Based on monthly, weekly daily cycles, there's a very
consistent twenty three weeks cycle in gold in the XU index, and once again
those markets bottom lockstep with that cycle in the latter part of August. So
we're in the weeks following that cycle low starting to build a little bit of
a higher base, higher plateau. And I have said all along that I
thought the bullish phase, moderately bullish phase for gold would not arrive until the
second half of September, first half of October, and that, like I
said, it's just the beginning of when some of these timing indicators I follow
would start to turn to the upside. My focus or My warning has been
all long that very often gold will see the majority of its move in just
the final weeks prior to a cycle high. So if I'm looking for a
cycle high in early November, that means really the weeks leading into that through
October are the time when you often would see a stronger rally. So that
kind of fits with these indicators starting to turn positive or having the potential turn
positive in second half of September, more likely in the first half of October,
and so I think we could get a nice intermediate rally there. But
gold is still going to have some headwinds working against it until we get past
early twenty twenty four. Okay, and finally, what about the dollar.
The dollar is one of those headwinds that I think is on keeping gold intact.
And I believe that the dollars set an initial bottom this year, but
that that was just the first sell off that we will see in the dollar
throughout this year. I've been devoting a decent amount of my monthly newsletter and
the opening comments and analysis to this thinking that I have that we have entered
a new forty year cycles of currency wars, and I explained that in more
detail in my publications, but that one of the key things within that long
term cycle is a transition for the dollar, and I think that we are
just in the very early stages of that. And my intermediate work is showing
that the dollar should rebound from mid July when three to six month cycles bottomed
into January of twenty twenty four. But at that point, I'm looking for
a secondary, a lower high in the dollar, and then things start to
get a little more negative for the dollar in the one of the two years
that follow that timeframe, and that's when I think you'll also see more of
an opportunity for gold and for other anti dollar type of vehicles. So I
think the dollar is in this phase of tracing out a long time major top.
But again that's we're talking multi year type of cycles and trends, so
it doesn't all happen at once. It doesn't mean that the dollar suddenly collapses
in six or twelve months. It means that it's going through a longer term
transition phase. And I've laid out a lot of the reasons, fundamental and
technical, but you certainly sought another affirmation. Another duck lining up in a
row in late August when the Bricks Nations had their annual meeting and announced that
they were inviting Saudi Arabia and actually five other countries to join BRICKS. And
these are all countries that want to get out from under the US dollar supremacy
and being forced to use US dollar for a lot of their trade. And
it's a it's a slow, steady process, but it's it's looking to break
that hegemony of the US dollar. And over the coming years, I think
you're going to see steady movement in that direction, and there will be key
times within that when when the dollar suffers some reactive sell offs as this topping
process continues to unfold. All right, So, if I remember correctly,
you were kind of called the election based on the strength of the dollar last
time. The dollar usually goes higher during democratic presidencies and lower during Republican presidencies.
Do you think this is maybe predictive here at this point? I don't
see that. I don't see as clear of an indication. Yeah, last
time, in the six to eight months heading into the election, it was
looking very clear that the dollars should bottom and begin a new unmulti year rally,
which, yes, as I described, has been very consistent in democratic
administrations. With the dollar going through this topping process, it's going to have
as much of a determining factor on whether whether we see several years all of
two sided type of action as that whole transition unfolds, or whether we see
a really sharp sell off. Looking into your say, twenty twenty five,
which would be the first year of a new administration, it certainly could have
that that precursor nuanced to it, and I'll be looking at that more closely
coming into next year, But right now I don't see strong enough evidence to
go one way or the other in that. Okay, interesting, Interesting,
and any other markets we should be looking at where you're seeing trends shift or
perhaps exacerbate, I don't know that there's any that really stand out right now.
You know. I've been looking at one particular grain and the wheat market
to set up bottom in here, but that could take some time before it
starts to build a base. I've been looking at cryptos, bitcoin and etc.
As having a negative cycle from the nit July when intermediate cycles peaked,
stretching out into November when I anticipate the next significant bottom. But in both
of those cases that means you've got the potential for a lot of two sided
trading one to two weeks trends in each direction, so that needs to be
kind of focused on in a more microscopic perspective as post or broad perspectives.
All right, so interesting times ahead. Sounds like there's going to be a
lot of volatility and a lot of uncertainty in the world. Yeah. I
think there's definitely the potential for a couple black swan events over the next year
or so, especially based on how some of the markets you're lining up,
But you can't really plan for them per se, other than just making sure
you're sharing to get strong money management principles and following the trends because usually those
future events chests of shadows before. All right, well, hey appreciate you
coming on and sharing your review of the future with us. Can you just
tell us again your site where we find you, how we subscribe. Yes,
you can go to your inside track Trading dot com, inside me the
extra I in the middle, so it's I N S I I D E
track Trading dot Com and Nick Fine owns many archives, reports, newsletters,
samples, and also information on subscription packages. All right, excellent, Hey,
if you got a question for Eric or myself, please just send me
an email k l at krylts dot com. We'll get you an answer as
quick as we can. And while you're at it, you'll find the link
in the show notes to this interview on Financial Survival Network dot com. Just
click it, take your right to eric site, and while you're there,
sign up for your free newsletter. Eric. Always a pleasure. Great to
have you back on. We're going to be watching your forecast closely and see
what happens next. Thanks for having me back. Carry, thanks for listening
to Carry Lens's Financial Survival Network, your solution to today's trying times. For
the latest, go to Financial Survival Network dot com. Financial Survival Network now
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