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With inflation being sticky, I think
that the rate hikes that the Feds have

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instituted for the past you know,
fourteen months or so aren't really being reflected

3
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yet in what you know, people
are feeling. I think that things are

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going to get much worse when we
get to the summertime, when we start

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looking at small businesses and renegotiating their
loans, etc. I think that the

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market's going to have, you know, some challenges ahead. Even though these

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numbers are coming down with the CPI, I think that there's gonna have to

8
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be some more pain in the economy
before we feel, you know, that

9
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things are under control and we can
have a robust recovery. You're listening to

10
00:00:41,079 --> 00:00:46,600
Carrie Let's Financial Survival Network, where
you get valuable information you just can't find

11
00:00:46,640 --> 00:00:52,719
anywhere else to thrive in today's trying
times. You need the Financial Survival Network

12
00:00:53,039 --> 00:00:57,759
now more than ever. Go to
Financial Survival and Network dot com and get

13
00:00:57,759 --> 00:01:07,359
your free newsletter in gift Financial Survival
Network now more than ever, And welcome

14
00:01:07,599 --> 00:01:11,840
you are listening to watching the Financial
Survival Network. I'm your host, Jerry

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Luttz. Well, we got a
CPI number out today that it has led

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to markets going higher, but also
gold and silver taking off a bit.

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Bitcoin kind of shrugging it all off, what does it mean? Well,

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we have got for you eight thirty
five years veteran of the financial wars here

19
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it's been advising, helping you retire
or quite some time. And his name

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is David m Right. David,
it's great to have you on the show.

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And so we got a CPI number
out point two percent, So is

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that worthy of celebration? Actually,
Carry, thank you for having me on

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the show. It's a pleasure to
be here with you. Actually, the

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CPI number came out today at three
percent. That was the headline CPI number.

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The core CPI which is excluding a
food and energy, was still at

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a sticky kind of a four point
eight percent. The Fed mandate they want

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to get core PCI and CPI actually
down to about two percent, So we're

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a little bit away from that right
now. We're at four point eight percent

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on that core CPI number, But
frankly, I think they're waiting for Feds

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are waiting for the end of the
month when the personal consumption expenditure the PC

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index comes out. That's a little
bit better reading. Carry, that's what

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they look at a little more carefully
to see what those numbers are going to

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show. So I'm going to be
one of those people that's a little more

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cautious and bearish than maybe some of
your other guests. Right so, point

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two percent month over month, but
an annualized rate of three percent, as

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long as you don't eat and as
long as you don't put gas in your

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car, right absolutely, I'll tell
you what. Living on the boots down

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here and in Ohio, we certainly
see a lot of people walking out of

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the stores with a lot less groceries
under their under their arms just because of

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that. And in what I'm seeing
here is that with inflation being sticky,

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I think that the rate hikes that
the Feds have instituted for the past you

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know, fourteen months or so aren't
really being reflected yet in in what you

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know, people are feeling. I
think that things are going to get much

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worse when we get to the summertime, when we start looking at small businesses

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and renegotiating their loans, etc.
I think that the market's going to have,

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you know, some challenges ahead.
Even though these numbers are coming down

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with the CPI, I think that
there's gonna have to be some more pain

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in the economy before we feel,
you know, that things are under control

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and we can have a robust recovery
more so than just fueled by AI,

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which is kind of leading the charge
right now with a lot of different stocks

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in the SNPN, the NASTAC.
Well, it's probably AI stocks that are

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being recommended by AI. There's probably
no human intervention in it, all right.

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I love it absolutely absolutely, and
why not. It's in about every

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sector, about every area of the
economy you can find it, So why

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wouldn't it recommend itself with AI?
You and I won't even need need to

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be here and probably twelve to twenty
four months, right right, Well,

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it'll just buy itself too, It'll
put out the recommendation and then it'll just

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trade it and talk about trading your
own book here. Huh yeah, no

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kidding. I mean that that's a
concern all of us. Ad where does

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this lean to? It certainly can
be used for good, It's certainly an

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intuitive thing. But at what point
does it create more harm than good.

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It's been estimated that AI could end
up replacing far more jobs than robotics could

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have ever replaced. Back when you
know the auto industry instituted all that stuff.

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Well, I can think of what
is it five hundred and thirty five

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jobs that I would like to see
it replace, because it's sure can't be

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worse than the people we send up
to the capitol. Ken it, amen,

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I tell you what this, this
spend spend spend has got to end

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ai at Ai government. What a
what a wonderful thought that would be.

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Let's work our way through that one. If we have an election. Yeah,

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if AI was running things, we
probably wouldn't be spending all this money

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in the first place. There'd be
a lot more people alive and taxes would

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be a fraction of what they are
now. Who knows, Maybe a I

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would have gotten rid of the Central
Reserve too while they were at it,

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but b you never know. But
in the meantime, we've got a PPI

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number coming up to what's the whisper
number there? The whisper number is that

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it's going to be a little bit
under the est of it, that the

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producer price index is probably going to
be running a little bit lower than it

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was the previous month. Things are, you know, prices are coming down.

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A shelter, obviously, is a
major component of the Producer Price Index

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and of the CPI, and those
numbers are coming down. But I know

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that in our area a lot of
people are just kind of staying put in

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their homes. They're not a lot
of new house activity other than these young

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bucks that are building these houses at
six and seven percent mortgage rates, or

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if you've got somebody older that's trading
their homen for all cash deal on something

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else. But the PPI probably a
whisper number is it's going to be a

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little bit lower estimate than what they
expected. Okay, So there's two indexes

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that I pay attention to when it
comes to what stuff really costs. Two

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numbers. Number one is the cost
of a Thanksgiving dinner because that's always the

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same year and year out. The
grand sauce goes up, the mushrooms or

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the stuffing goes down, but it's
always the same basket. There's no hoodonic

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adjustment, there's no nothing. And
then Fourth of July barbecue, which this

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year said the bill was down three
percent from twenty twenty two, but it's

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still fourteen percent higher than prices two
years ago. I don't know where they

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had this barbecue at. They must
have been given away free hamburgers wherever it

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was, because mine went up absolutely
same here. Maybe they went to the

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Nathan's Hotdog competition and got some free
ones there. Who knows. Oh,

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I don't want to think about that. That's a bad visual. Seriously,

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Yeah, that's true. These numbers
are just off the wall that seemed to

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have no relationship to reality. They
just don't, you know. Carry you

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look at what our country produces in
gross domestic product actually at one point three

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percent finalized number for the first quarter. But you compare that to our debt

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national deficit, which is currently at
thirty two nearly thirty two trillion dollars.

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We're out of whack, you know, in that front. And you can't

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possibly measure what the effect of a
zero at a five hundred basis point hike

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means to the rest of this year. I've seen estimates that AI could take

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us up another year fifty percent before
the end of the year, or could

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00:09:01,919 --> 00:09:05,679
reduce us down negative ten or twenty
percent before the end of the year.

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There's just too much of a disparity
here. I think that the Feds could

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very possibly hike again at the end
of this month. If they do,

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they may hike again in September.
Those things are going to create more pain.

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I think that the whole mandate was
that they were supposed to get unemployment

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I thought up to about five percent. But unemployment in our country is still

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around three point six, right,
three point six three point seven percent.

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So to me, I don't see
that the Feds have created enough demand destruction

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yet. Although inflation is coming somewhat
lower, it seems to me that we're

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gonna you know, there's some work
to do yet. So what's an investor

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supposed to do when you got this
silent, stealthy tax that effectively devalues the

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value of your by killing your purchasing
power. What are you telling your people

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after all your experience? I think
what's good is you and I both remember

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the inflationary sixties and seventies and early
eighties. You would, I know,

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these things go in cycles. They
don't just go away because the FED decided

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to raise rates one day and they've
happened to follow through on their threat.

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Right, These things can go on
for a decade or more. They really

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can carry they. I think that
the reality of the situation is people have

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to come back to basics and understand
what their money is for. If if

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if I'm working with someone, I'm
just just this warning. Had somebody come

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in who you know, has a
couple of million dollars part of the money

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they want to buy a lay cone
with it. So if that's the case,

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then we ride the wave of AI
We ride the wave of growth stocks.

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We watch it diligently and make sure
that we don't get caught in a

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whipsaw effect. But by a large
the majority of our my clientele, they

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rely on their four o one ks, their IRA accounts for income. So

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I know that a lot of growth
advisors promote growth as an inflation hedge,

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right, but to me, getting
caught in a down draft unexpectedly is the

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worst inflation hedge that you could have. So the reality of the situation that

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I see is creating income streams from
the investments that you have. Having both

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you know, high dividend paying stocks
that create some growth in years where growth

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can be made, and at the
same time finding those companies that can be

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sustained beyond that with income dividends of
five to seven percent. Knowing what your

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money's for and making sure that your
pensions and so also security have that additional

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00:12:01,039 --> 00:12:07,559
amount of cash flow that's reliable and
repeatable from your investments is I think the

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way to go for the future.
Okay, so, oh, can you

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give us some examples, not necessarily
recommendations, because everybody's situations different, but

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what are some good dividend payers out
there? Now, we've got quite a

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few. I'm not going to get
in any names and stock picking here.

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They can go to write Financial Group
dot com and get some of those names

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and recommendations, but you know,
buy and large most of the AI stocks

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that are out there aren't paying much
in the way of dividends, and we

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certainly want to stick with those companies
that are, you know, consumer staples.

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We know that so far this year, consumer discretionaries still leading the way,

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but to me, that's going to
be short lived. I know there's

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a lot of people at the airports, still a lot of people that are

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going on cruises and staying in hotels. But I think at some point we

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look at the debt consumer debt,
what's going on there, people are are

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going to realize that they got to
slow down the spending. So those companies

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that favor you know, repeat steady
staples. Yeah, so you got your

157
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P and G type. You know, right, you got to have your

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razor blade. Women got to have
their cosmetics. No matter what the economy

159
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is doing, they're going to be
buying him. Right. Yeah, there

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you go. Exactly defensive names,
basically absolutely, I know. So the

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defensive name is still the same.
I mean, at one time Coca Cola

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was really a defensive stock, and
now like less people with the sugar and

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all that. Cigarettes used to be
defensive because you were addicted to the stuff.

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But less and less people smoking cigarettes, and so what are some defensive

165
00:14:00,840 --> 00:14:05,039
sectors let's put it that way.
Well, I think the like you had

166
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mentioned already, consumer staples like like
toiletries, like some of the comfort stocks

167
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like like Coca cola, like things
that are you know, normal day to

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day items that people enjoy. People
are still going to spend on themselves in

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that manner, and I think long
term that's what people are going to have

170
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to get back to. What about
healthcare that the administration, the current occupant

171
00:14:35,279 --> 00:14:39,240
in the White House is making all
sorts of extravagant claims going to bring the

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00:14:39,279 --> 00:14:43,240
price of healthcare down. If he
can manage that, that would be the

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first time in my life and probably
your life that that ever occurred, that

174
00:14:48,600 --> 00:14:54,360
place to be. Certainly one of
the area is to be healthcare with with

175
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the itonomics plan, looking into negotiating
drug prices with Medicare, I think is

176
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an excellent thing. I mean,
just the cost of prescription drugs has just

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gone out, way out of control. So definitely if that can happen,

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that's certainly a good thing for the
health sector. Hey, when when I

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come back in my next life,
I am going to be a prescription drug

180
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benefit management company because they could just
pick numbers out of the air and that's

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00:15:26,799 --> 00:15:31,159
what you pay. You have no
possibility to less. You go to Canada

182
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or Mexico, and that's got problems
there too. I mean, a person

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purchased drugs, prescription drugs in Canada
that were a third price of what they

184
00:15:41,759 --> 00:15:48,519
were in the US. In Mexico, I have my reservations about it.

185
00:15:48,519 --> 00:15:50,840
We'll just leave it at that.
But other countries, like in Western Europe,

186
00:15:50,840 --> 00:15:56,639
you can do it. So obviously
we're getting shafted here big time.

187
00:15:56,120 --> 00:16:00,600
But the taxpayer pays for everything in
the end, regardless what they get back.

188
00:16:02,200 --> 00:16:04,200
Very very true. And while we're
on that topic, Kerry, why

189
00:16:04,200 --> 00:16:08,440
don't we make a list of all
your prescription meds for the month and then

190
00:16:08,720 --> 00:16:11,440
we can go out there and see
if we can get get that lowered for

191
00:16:11,519 --> 00:16:15,960
you. I'll do it like I'll
let them bid on me, like they

192
00:16:15,960 --> 00:16:19,559
do for like home improvement sites.
I'll put I'll put it out there.

193
00:16:19,600 --> 00:16:22,840
I say, if you want my
business, how cheap, you're gonna make

194
00:16:22,840 --> 00:16:29,320
it for me? Right right,
exactly exactly. So how much do you

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00:16:29,399 --> 00:16:33,960
think the twenty twenty four election cycle
is gonna play in on the markets and

196
00:16:34,519 --> 00:16:37,919
all this crazy stuff that we're going
on. I mean, you've been around

197
00:16:37,919 --> 00:16:42,480
the block is many years as me, maybe maybe a couple more, maybe

198
00:16:42,480 --> 00:16:49,000
a couple less. But you know
there's always one big loser in every election

199
00:16:49,039 --> 00:16:55,399
in my lifetime, and that's the
American people. So we're gonna have volatility

200
00:16:55,639 --> 00:17:00,039
because hey, people love traders love
volatility. You want olatle markets if you're

201
00:17:00,039 --> 00:17:04,680
a trader, that's how you make
money. Yeah, and nobody knows what's

202
00:17:04,680 --> 00:17:11,279
going on anyway, so volatility rules, and then afterwards we'll still have volatility,

203
00:17:11,519 --> 00:17:17,000
right, Yeah, that's it's an
ever ending stream. And I guess

204
00:17:17,000 --> 00:17:22,319
there's a sucker born every minute too, to catch im, don't forgive absolutely

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all right, Well, hey,
David, really appreciate you coming on sharing

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for decades of wisdom with us,
because you got to put this stuff in

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perspective. Election cycles. We've both
been through an inordinate number and hopefully we've

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got a bunch more ahead of us. And how much really changes after an

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election not very many of them,
that's very, very true. And the

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Feds have more work to do.
They've got quantitative tightening. They stopped that,

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by the way, during COVID,
right they were they were reducing their

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allan sheet with all the money that
was lent to the economy, but they

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stopped doing that. You know,
you even if they pause on rdikes this

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year and start qt start quantity fighting, you know, there's more pain that's

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going to be inflicted on the economy. I think in the in the next

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year. We may not see this
drop until till next year. But you

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know, just as sure as you're
born, I think it's going to happen

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at some point. Yeah, it's
got to play itself out. And we

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don't even talk about the banking crisis
and the fact that they've basically it's QE.

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They're just calling it a different name. It's the Emergency Discount Window Bank

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Fund to bail out banks, right, and it's all their own fault.

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But next time we have you on, assuming that not much has changed,

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probably a couple more banks will have
failed by the next time you come on,

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I would imagine, or will be
merged in quotes. Yeah, which

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isn't a great thing. Yeah,
you've got four now it's up to forty

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regional banks. Every time they rate
ike or even leave things the way they

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are. Yeah, you're decreasing the
net interest margin that these banks can make.

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They're they're they're squeezed, they're pinched
with three percent loans on the books,

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and they got to pay out their
customers four and five percent, so

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they're robbing Peter to pay Paul.
That's just not going to be good long

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term for regional banks. And I
think that the FEDS, I think,

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before they do anything else, and
it remains to be seen what they'll do

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this month later, I think they're
gonna have to really, really really look

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at the banking situation because if they
if they if they're saying the FDIC is

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going to cover everybody's deposit, I
think they're smoking dope on that. I

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mean, I really believe that they've
got to shore up the banking industry because

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of people whose faith in that,
I think we're all screwed. Hey,

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well, you know, fractional reserve
banks is all about confidence, and the

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root word of confidence is con.
You know that's true. So eventually the

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con game comes to an end,
as all Ponzi's must. But they've been

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pretty good at keeping it to running
here for one hundred, one hundred ten

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years now, David, You know, yeah, ten years, so obviously

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it's deteriorated over time, but at
some point you get to the end of

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the road where they can can't be
kicked down any further. Anyway, Hey,

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tell us again where we find you. Best way to connect with you

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00:20:36,640 --> 00:20:41,079
on the internet, David, got
a right financial group that's w r IGHD

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Financial Group dot com. You can
log in there and see all about us,

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who we are, some of our
my other appearances, what our philosophies

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are, what we think is going
to happen, because you know, we

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have this big crystal ball there.
But no, not really. But if

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you come to our website you'll see
a little bit more about us and what

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makes us tick. Well, experience
many times is better than a crystal ball

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00:21:07,200 --> 00:21:11,359
or as good as you know,
especially when you have decades of it and

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you're not tied up in the emotions
of the time. Hey, don't forget.

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There's a link in the show notes
to this interview right to David's site

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on Financial Survival Network dot com and
just click it. While you're there,

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sign up for your free newsletter David. Always a pleasure. Thank you so

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much for joining us. Thank you
Carrie for having me, Thanks for listening

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to Carrie Let's Financial Survival Network,
your solution to today's trying times. For

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00:21:38,160 --> 00:21:45,200
the latest, go to Financial Survival
Network dot com. Financial Survival Network now

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00:21:45,519 --> 00:21:45,359
more than ever,