Thank you for listening to Pictures Media Radio. Welcome to Policy and Rights,
the show about the government, policy and human rights. All right, welcome
back to Policy and Right here in Depictions Media Radio, I'm your host,
Michael Cloggs. Let's start off in right here at home in British Columbia,
increased family Benefit payments are arriving in bank accounts this summer and will help families
with rising expenses due to inflation. With global inflation and high interest rates driving
up dealing costs, we know families are being hit hard right now. The
premiere David Eve, we're increasing support to low and middle income families British Columbia
throughout an expanded BC Family Benefit. Getting a little extra money to families for
the basics is one of the ways we are helping people who are feeling the
squeeze right now. The benefit is expected to actually help about thirty sorry three
hundred and forty thousand families and which is about sixty six thousand more than last
year. Will receive the benefit through monthly deposits in their bank accounts or mail
checks starting in mid July. The twenty five percent increase through the bonus means
families of four could potentially receive as much as three thousand, five hundred and
sixty three dollars annually, while a single parent with one child could receive as
much as two thousand, six hundred eighty eight dollars. So oh, let's
move forward. A BBC update on a government that launched an attack in the
Russian Republic It Attacks on the police and churches and the synagogue in the Russian
Republic of Dakistan have left nineteen police officers and several civilians dead. A social
media footage captured a government firing on the street, while and while a clip
from Durban, home to a ancient Jewish community, showed buildings on fire.
Sunday. The attacks coincided with the Orthodox festival of pentecost A long a long
serving priest is said to be among the dead. The police detained the head
of one district near Malakala following the reports that his two Jewish sons were among
the attackers, and said six gunmen had been killed. Dagistan, one of
the Russians porce provinces, is predominantly Muslim and has in the past been the
scene of Islamic attacks. The Krimlin has dismissed the possibility of the other wave
of violence, and Dagastan head Sergei Malalov implied Ukraine had been involved in the
attack. So moving forward, we're gonna hear from the United Nations and we're
also gonna hear from the the leadership of NATO as he gives a speech from
from Canada about security in Canada. The Secretary General is going to give it
has given a press conference on cybersecurity and the importance of ensuring that the message
is delivered via social media and on the Internet are accurate and truthful. That
misinformation h is harmful to to not only those who are listening to the information,
but to those who may be distant from the information because it has such
effects on the messages they are delivered. And when we hear from NATO,
there are courts going to be commending the efforts of what the Canada has been
doing in Ukraine in training troops so that they can defend their country. So
once we push forward and we're going to hear from the United Nations, Good
afternoon, distinguished members of the media. The spread of a truth and lies
online is causing grave harm to our world. Misinformation these information and aid speech
are fueling prejudice and violence, exacerbating divisions and conflicts them and I minorities,
and compromising the integrity of elections. Today, I'm pleased to present a starting
point for solutions the United Nations Global Principles for Information Integrity. These five principles
Social trust and resilience, independent, free and plooralistic media, elsy incentives,
transparency and research, and public empowerment are based on an overriding vision of a
more humane information system. They call for an information environment that champions human rights
and the sustainable future, and they provide a solid foundation for sustainable, inclusive
development, climate action, democracy and peace. So the members of the media,
threats to information integrity are not new, but they are probably inferating and
expanding with n precedented speed on digital platforms and supercharge by AI technologies. Science,
facts, human rights, public health, climate action are under attack,
and when information integrity is targeted, so is democracy, which depends on a
shared fact based perception of reality. False narratives, distortions and lies breed cynicism,
disbelief and disengagement. They undermines social coision, putting the sustainable development goals
further out of reach or pack algorithms push people into information bubbles and reinforce prejudices,
including racism, misorgery, and discrimination of all kinds. Women, refugees,
vigrants, and minorities are common targets. Activists, advocates, researchers,
scientists, and leaders are arrassed and humiliated, and the damage goes far beyond
the digital realm, affecting billions of people who are not connected to the Internet.
Lives are at stake when lives are spread about vaccines and other medical issues.
The United nations own operations and missions are compromised as our staff deal with
the tsunami, falsehoods and absurd conspiracy theories so distinguish members of the media and
their friends. The United Nation's Global Principles for Information Integrity are the results of
broad consultations with member states, with use leaders, academia, civil society,
the private sector, including tech companies and the media. Those consultations showed that
much of the world shares our deep concern and is searching for solutions, and
the Global Principles lay out a clear plan forward, firmly rooted in human rights,
including the rights to freedom of expression and opinion, and I urge governments,
the tech sector and other stakeholders to listen to your people and your customers
and to respond. Some stakeholders carry out carry an outsized responsibility, and for
them, I have a clear message with demand action. First to the big
tech companies, take responsibility. Acknowledge the damage your products are inflicting on people
and communities, and you have the power to mitigate harm to people and societies
around the world. You have the power to change business models that profit from
these information and hate. Second to advertisers and the PR industry, stop monetizing
harmful content, strengths and information in tegrity, protect your brand, boost your
bottom line. The climate crisis is a cause of particular concern. Coordinated these
information campaigns are seeking to undermine climate action. Creatives, don't use your talents
to greenwash pur agencies, look for clients. Warn't misleading people and destroying our
planets sert. My message to mendy outlets is raise and reinforce editorial standards.
Do your part to safeguard our future by providing quality journalism based on facts and
reality. Find advertisers are part of the solution, not the problem. And
finally, I say to governments, commit to creating and maintaining a free,
viable, independent, and plural medial landscape. Guarantee strong protections for journalists.
Ensure regulations old human rights, and refrain from drastic measures, including blanket internet
shutdowns. Respect the right to freedom of opinion and expression and need Let me
be very clear, everyone should be able to express themselves freely without fear of
attack. Everyone should be able to access a range of views and information sources.
No one should be at the mercy of an algorithm they don't control,
which was not designed to safeguard their interests, and which tracks their behavior to
collect personal data and keep them hooped. So the members of the media,
these principles aim to empower people to demand their rights. They support parents anxious
for their children, young people whose future relies on information, integrity, civil
society, and academia. We are pushing for change and public interest media striving
to convey, reliable and create information. Un here's your calls for guidance and
support. So don't lose heart, raise your voices, demand accountability, demand
choice, demand control. You are the majority and this is a fight we
can win together. Same. Thank you very much for Okay, So we
heard from the Secretary General on cybersecurity and securing that messages are helpful to the
people overall. We heard the Secretary General mentioned about bottom lines and simply broadcasting
just to increase your bottom line. I want to want to make a comment
about that and that we the public need to ensure that there is more information
being sent out by sources that are independent of corporations, that we hear from,
more independent media outlets and those who are not taking money from the big
corporations like the Sun Oil's, the pfighters that are out there that they are
broadcasting information because they want people to know and not just trying to sell more
product. So let's move ahead to the next segment. This question to Valeria
Rebecca. Thank you, Secretary General alm bealso of the United Nations Correspondent Association
for this press conference. Valeria Rebecca from Anson News Buyers. So my question
is how do you think you will get countries on board and those principle being
implemented and looking specifically toward zones. I'll offer you to see an implementation of
these principles not only to ensure safety for the press, but also for the
public to have access to reliable and timely information and if I may on Lebanona,
is there any developments, any good developments, And in terms of did
you have contacts with the parties in trying to de escalate the situation? Thank
you so much answering the second, since my stakeout on Friday, nothing relevant
has happened that I no. Now we have a clear message to governments,
and that message is based fundamentally on the respect of human rights. And obviously
governments have the capacity to regulate, and those regulations must be organized in a
way that human rights are respected, that freedom of expression is respected, that
freedom of media is respected, that journalists are protected, and at the same
time that those platforms that have the capacity to spread information put the integrity of
information first and not a business model that makes more money when hate speech or
misinformation is spread. All the research that was done proves that with most of
the present business models, false things, especially if they are scandalous, appeals
to intolerance and to hate speech tend to have a much stronger engagement, and
that algorithms are based on that. So what we ask is the platforms to
assume responsibilities in this regards and we ask governments to be attentive to these and
to have the regulations that respect the principles that I mentioned, but at the
same time that create the conditions for the business models to be based on a
do no harm perspective. Edie, you I much miss the Secretary General.
First of follow up on the principles, you said that big tech companies and
especially advertising and PR people really have control over this in a major way.
What is the U and going to do to try and ensure that big tech
and advertising and PR companies actually take these principles to heart and do what you
said, which is to stop disinformation, hate speech, etc. And secondly,
on Gaza there's been an escalation of fighting. And also what is your
reaction to Israeli Prime Ministered Benjamin Natanyahu's statement this morning that Israel will not agree
to any deal that calls for a permanency's fire. Thank you, first of
all, in addition to the first question, all those companies have people working
there, their parents, their citizens. They are interested in do no harm,
and this appeal we have seen in many areas all the stuff of companies
has been a very important factor in making sure that companies do the right thing.
On the other hand, whenever our objective is to mobilize public opinion,
for public opinion to put pressure, put pressure on companies and put pressure on
governments in this regard. But I have to say that the problem is that
those companies even lose control with the present systems in place, because when you
have an algorithm, the algorithm works automatically and you don't even control what the
algorithm will produce. So people need to be much more rigorous in the algorithms
that developed, and most of the advertising companies, I must say, I
doubt that they have control of their own products in many of the social media
platforms. So I think it's in the interests of the advertising industry to know
exactly how their products are being used, how do they appear, how is
that selected within the way algorithms work and within the way the tech companies work.
So in my opinion, it's fundamental to mobilize everybody, including those that
operate in these industries, to accept the principle of do no harm and to
adapt their business models to the right thing to do. The second question,
Our position has been the same since the beginning. We strongly advocate for an
immediate humanitarian CEA is fire and for any immediate release and then conditional release of
all hostages as the basis to create the conditions for one day, the two
say solution to be possible. Thank you that that means that it's a different
position than the one that you have expressed sexual general strauduct with Chines and your
television. I promise you. I only have one question. It's about information
integrity. Let me give you an example. If I search Athrise, if
I search on Google now, if I search on Google now, the second
the second result is a sponsored advertisement called on war neutuality compromised. So in
this information integrity, how can you ensure that governments they don't they don't because
of maybe their national interests to push for misinformation or disinformation. Do you have
confidence that member states would do that? I think that member states have a
vested interests in not promoting misinformation because sooner or later the truth is discovered.
I'll give you one example of misinformation about myself. I've heard the same source
many times saying that I never attacked AMAS, that I never condemned AMAS,
that I am a supporter of AMAS. I asked for a statistic to be
made by our colleagues. I have condemned AMAS one under than two times fifty
one of them informal speeches, the others in different social platforms. So I
mean the truth in the end always wins. Team and Joe Abderrami Siam from
the Arabic daily Al kotzel Rabi, Mister Secretary General, the Palestinian people are
being obliterated. The killing machine did not stop. For the last nine months,
over one hundred thirty thousand Palaestinian either killed maimed, and there's over twenty
thousand Palestinian children had been became orphans. Israel is defying every international agency for
Security Council resolution, two General Assembly Resolutions i CEJ three times, the Provisional
majority. Where take you please? A question? What else can the international
community do to protect the Palestinian Would they just keep watching while thousands and thousand
Polsine being killed both in Gaza and the West Bank. Thank you well.
First of all, the international community must put all pressure in order for international
law to be respected, for international Meditaian law to be respected. The number
of Palacinian killed in Gaza is unprecedented in any conflict that I have witnessed since
I am Secretary General, which means that the protection of civilians has not been
a key instrument in the conduction of this operations. And on the other hand,
I mean international law applies, and there are courts that deal with international
law, and the decisions of those courts must be respected in all circumstances.
Joe and I will need to let the ESCHI goo Joseph Klein, Canada,
Free Press. I want to return to your topic today and the global principles
for information integrity. You've talked often and CLU today about the danger of misinformation
and hate speech on social media and appropriately so, but I would like specifically
to know how you would apply your message to the tech industry and advertisers to
the growing concern that teenagers and children on social media are being sexually solicited,
harassed, bullied, body shamed and addicted. That's something that hasn't received as
much attention as far as I can tell in your remarks, but I'm sure
you are very concerned about it, So could you comment on Thank you.
We mentioned it in my remarks and it is central in the document that we
have published. Indeed, the question of children is probably the most worrying question
for me in relation to what we are witnessing in using information and this information
and in addiction, because one of the problems is addiction to some series of
activities related to social media, to platforms, and to other aspects. I
strongly encourage, strongly encourage the companies involved to adopt very rigorous mechanisms based on
the do No Arm principle in relation to children, and I strongly encourage governments
to be particularly effective in regulation in this regard. Thank you. We have
to let the Secretary General go, but Milissa will state answer. Thanks.
We're going to hear from Jen Strathenberg as he gives a speech in Ottawa.
He is speaking to the NATO Association of Canada after accepting the Lewis Saint Laurent
Award for outstanding service and peace insecurity. And let's hear what his remarks are
to Canada as we in Canada are actually struggling to keep up with the NATO
standards, and how he made a promise to ensure that Canada will continue to
be a strong member of NATO. Good afternoon, it's great to see you
all, and David, thank you so much for your kind words, your
public service in politics as a minister's minister, has really made a difference,
not only for Canal but also for NATO. So it's great to see you
and I'm great to meet all of you many times. Also to the NATO
Association of Canada and the Canadian and NATO Parlimento Association for inviting me to be
here today. It is good to be back in Canada. I feel at
home in this country. And last time I was here, I went to
Cambridge Bay with Prime Minister to door and the Defense and the Foreign Minister and
we visited neural that this early warning radar and it was actually extremely useful for
me to see this myself and also extremely interesting. And I'm great to be
in the High North of Canada. The vs today may be a bit less,
as I say, exciting in a way that it's not a high North,
but at least the climate is actually much and it was a very different
actually in a way that it's extremely warm hair now that was not the case
opened the High North. But anyway, thank you so much. It's great
to see you all, and I appreciate this opportunity to say some few words.
But let me start by express my gratitude and to tell you that it
is really a great honor to receive the Louis Sanlauran Award, named after prime
minister who oversaw Canada joining NATO back in nineteen forty nine. And Santura was
one of the earliest proponents of NATO as a transatlantic alliance. He understood that
the only way to stand up to aggression was for free nations to stand together.
He was right then and he is right now. For today, we
face the most challenging, complex and dangerous security environment for generations. In three
weeks, leaders the NATO Hudson State of Heads of State and Government will meet
in Washington for the NATO Summit. There we will celebrate the seventy fifth anniversary
of our alliance. But this summit will not only be about celebrations, but
it will also be an opportunity to make important precisions for the future. There
are three main issues on our agenda. First, the terrans and the fence.
We live in a more dangerous world with a greater global competition, a
new war in the Middle East and a full fledged war in Europe. Canada
contributes to NATO's the terrans and events in many different ways. We are very
grateful for those contributions. Not least on Europe's east and flank, where Canadian
troops lead NATO's National Battle Group in Latvia. And I have had the privilege
of meeting the Canadian soldiers in Latvia several times, and every time I met
them, I've been impressed by the commitment, by the skill, by the
professionalism, and I would like to express my gratitude to them, but also
to Canada for everything you do to strengthen NATO's military persons on our eastern flank
and pay tribute to all those who serve and have served in that bat group.
In twenty fourteen, Russia illegally annexed the Crimea and at that time all
NATO allies at the NATO Submitting Wales in the United Kingdom decided that we should
spend two percent of GDP on defense. At that time, only three allies
out of all NATO members met the guideline met the target of spending two percent
of GDP on defence. That was the United States, The Kingdom and Greece.
This year, in twenty twenty four, twenty three allies will spend at
least two percent of GDP on defence. Canada is also increasing its defence spending
and will add billions over the coming years, including by purchasing high end new
capabilities, modernizing neurald and by investing in fifth generation F thirty five aircraft.
This is important for our collective security. This will have to further strengthen NATE
to us a defensive military alliance. At the same time, I continue to
expect that all allies should meet the guideline of spending two percent. I know
that the is not always easy because I've been a politician, parliamentarium and a
Prime minister for many years, and I know that it's always easier to spend
money on health, education, infrastructure and many other important tasks than to invest
more in defense. And that's also the reason why when the Cold War ended,
European allies Canada reduced the fence spending because tensions went down. But when
we reduce the fence spending when tensions are going down, we have also to
be must also be able to increase spending investments and security when tensions are increasing
and are high as they are today. So therefore the reality is that now
we need to prioritize defence investments in our security because we need that to respond
to more dangerous and challenging environment. And as I said, the reality is
that that's what NATO allies are doing. Twenty three allies on two percent or
more, and more and more allies are approaching two percent out of those who
are not yet at that target. The second topic for the summit, and
the most urgent one, will be Ukraine. Since Russia's full scale invasion,
NATO allies have provided unpresented levels of support to Ukraine. Again, Canada is
really among those allies who are provided significant and substantial support to Ukraine, and
not only since the full scale invasion in twenty twenty two. But I was
in Ukraine back in twenty fifteen, and I remember I visited a training site
in the western part of Ukraine where actually Canadian soldiers officers inning the Ukrainians already
back then. So not only have Canada provided es central support after the full
scale invasion in February twenty two, but you are among those allies who have
been there for the longest time and helped them also prior to the full scale
invasion, and the support the training you provided before the invasion proved extremely important
when Russia launched a full scale invasion A couple of years ago. Since the
invasion, Canada has provided billions of dollars in a to Ukraine, including air
defense systems, battle tanks, and F sixteen pilot training, on top of
a lot of ammunition, another military equipment and support which has made a difference
on the battlefield for Ukraine. This has been indispensable for Ukrainians to fight back
and to survive as a sovereign nation. But this winter and spring we saw
serious lays and gaps in delivering support, with consequences on the front line.
We cannot let this happen again, and that is why I expect ally leaders
to agree for NATO to lead the coordination and provision of security systems and training
for Ukraine. I also I also have proposed a long term financial pledge with
fresh funding every year for Ukraine. The more credible our long term support,
the quick in Moscow will realize it cannot wait us out, the sooner this
war will end. It may seem like a paradox, but the path to
peace is more weapons to Ukraine to convince person and Putin that he cannot win
on the battlefield. We must ensure that putins aggression doesn't pay off today or
in the future. That is why we at the NATO summit in Washington next
month, will continue to bring Ukraine ever closer to NATO membership so that when
the time is right, Ukraine can join without any delay. The third major
topic at the NATO summit is our global partnerships, especially in the Indo Pacific,
and of course Canada, being both an Atlantic and a Pacific nation,
you are aware of both the challenges in Europe but also the Indo Pacific.
The war in Ukraine demonstrates that our security is not regional. Our security is
global, not least because of the support we know Russia is getting from China
and others. Beijing is sharing high end technologies like semiconductors and other dually use
items. Last year, Russia imported ninety percent of its microelectronics from China used
to produce missiles, tanks, and aircraft. China is also working to provide
Russia with improved satellite capability and imagery. All of this enables Moscow to inflict
more death and destruction on Ukraine, bolster Russia's defense industrial base, and evade
the impact of sanctions and exports controls. Publicly, President she has tried to
create the impression that he is taking a back seat in the conflict in Ukraine
toward sanctions and to keep trade flowing. But the reality is that China is
fueling the largest armed conflict in Europe since World War Two, and at the
same time it wants to maintain good relations with the West. Well, Beijing
cannot have it both ways at some point, and unless China changes course,
allies need to impose a cost. Russia is receiving support from others. Two
North Korea has delivered over one million rounds of artillery shells, and Iran has
delivered thousands of deadly Shahaed drones. We are deeply concerned that in exchange,
Pungyang and Tehran could receive Russian technology and supplies to help them advance their missile
and nuclear programs. The growing alignment between Russia and its authoritarian friends in Asia
makes it even more important that we work closely with our friends in the Indo
Pacific. I have therefore invited the leaders, the heads of state and government
of Australia, Japan, New Zealand and the Republic of Korea to the summit
in Washington next month. Together, we can uphold the international rules based order
and protect our shared values. So, ladies and gentlemen, for seventy five
years, NATO Allies has kept us safe, just as Prime Minister Stora knew
it would it that it saw us through the Cold War and their breakup of
the Soviet Union, and the ethnic wars in the Balkans, and help us
fight Harrison in the after month of the nine eleven attacks and the rise of
ISIS, and NATO keeps us safe today as we prepare for a more dangerous
world. Thanks to the collective strength of NATO, we can stand up to
authoritarian powers like Russia and China and make sure that freedom and democracy prevail in
Ukraine. And it's to NATO that we will continue to protect our values,
our nations and our one billion people. Thank you so much. Okay,
we're gonna hear from Tiff Machlin about the Bank Canada and a little bit about
how he goes about completing his chest, adjusting the interest rates and what it
is that he looks at as well, from not just simply what the banks
are doing, but to labor markets, to different markets across Canada, how
they are going to be affected by the change in fluctuations in interest versus the
pricing in how it'll will will affect the people of Canada. Okay, well,
look good afternoon. It is a great pleasure to be here today,
is of course Saint Jean Baptiste Bon fed at douak manitobia in Bon Saint Jean
atut aatus. When I started as Governor of the Bank of Canada on June
third, twenty twenty, the economy was in crisis. It was early in
the pandemic, and Canada's unemployment rate was fourteen percent, the highest on record.
Inflation was well below the two percent target. It was actually slightly negative.
The immediate priority was to avoid deflation and get the economy back on its
feet. But since twenty twenty twenty, since twenty twenty two, we are
fighting a new battle high inflation. When the economy reopened, the combination of
gum up global supply chains, a strong surgeon demand, and Russia's unprovoked invasion
of Ukraine sent inflation sharply higher. It peaked at just over eight percent in
June twenty twenty two. For more than two years now, our focus has
been getting inflation back down. We've come a long way. Monetary policy has
worked and it's continuing to work. Since January, inflation has been below three
percent and our measures of underlying inflation have eased steadily. This has increased our
confidence that inflation will continue to move closer to the two percent target this year,
and as Jeannette underlined a couple of times earlier, this month, we
lowered our policy interest rate for the first time in four years. Low,
stable and predictable inflation allows Canadians to spend and invest with confidence. It lowers
uncertainty and encourages long term investment, and it contributes to sustained job creation and
greater productivity. This in turn leads to improvements in our standard of living.
That's why price stability is our number one priority. A key ingredient for price
stability is a healthy labor market, one in which Canadians have the jobs they
want, employers have the workers they need, and wages are growing in line
real wages are growing in line with productivity. Economists call this maximum sustainable employment,
the highest level of employment the economy can sustain without triggering inflationary pressures.
The health of the Canadian labor market is what I'm going to talk about today.
In the twenty twenty one renewal of our monetary policy framework, the Federal
government and the Bank of Canada agreed price stability is our primary objective. We
also agreed monetary policy should continue to support maximum sustainable employment. Since then,
we've done extensive work to bolster our analysis labor markets. We publish new a
new dashboard of labor market indicators, and we've updated those benchmarks each year.
So where are we now and what's ahead? With higher interest rates, spending
is cooled and businesses have scaled back their hiring plans. Strong immigration has also
helped the supply of workers catch up with demand, bringing the labor market into
better balance. But it's now getting harder to find a new job, and
that's particularly affecting younger workers and newcomers to Canada. And it suggests the economy
now has room to grow without building new inflationary pressures. If we look at
the labor market over the longer term, what we see is that Canada's growing,
inclusive and well educated labor force has been a key advantage for our economy.
It's been our primary source of growth for the past twenty five years,
and sustaining this advantage is critical to achieving strong non inflationary growth going forward.
Well that's my speech in a nutshell. So if that's all you need,
you can start checking your smartphone. But if you're willing to stick with me
for another fifteen minutes or cell, I'm going to take a closer look at
Canadian Canada's labor market, both in the short run and the longer term.
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Poundmi. In November twenty twenty two, when we were raising our poll interest
rate rapidly, I gave a speech about how we expected the labor market to
adjust to higher interest rates and slower growth. I said that while the adjustment
wouldn't be without some pain, it need not involve a sharp rise in the
unemployment rate. With vacancies so high, much of the adjustment could come from
businesses taking down job postings rather than laying off workers. This was based on
what economists call the beverage curve, which shows that typically inverse relationship between job
vacancies and the unemployment rate. The evolution of beverage curve, as you can
see in this chart, is a bit complicated, but it provides some insight
into why the overall labor market has adjusted relatively smoothly to slower growth. So
let me walk you through it. Before the pandemic, the economy was near
full employment. Vacancies as a percentage of the labor force and the unemployment rate
were both fairly low. That's the blue diamonds near the middle of the black
curve. The pandemic severely disrupted the labor market. The unemployment rate rose rapidly
to just about fourteen percent in May twenty twenty. That's the purple dot on
the far right. With this disruption in the labor market, the entire beverage
curve shifted up into the right. We moved from the black curve to the
orange curve. As the economy gradually reopened, job vacancies rose slightly and the
unemployment rate came down quickly. This is reflected in movement from right to left
along the orange beverage curve that's the orange triangles. As the economy reopened fully,
the beverage curve shifted back down with less disruption. We began to see
better matching between job seekers and job vacancies, and we moved from the orange
curve back down to the black curve. The unemployment rate fell to a fifty
year low of four point eight percent. That's the dot at the top left
on the black beverage curve. And as they said, we moved from the
orange back to the old black curve. As we raised interest rates in the
economy, cool businesses started to scale back job postings, and higher immigration helped
fill job vacancies. The combined effect saw vacancies decline considerably, moving down the
steep part of the beverage curve. That's the green dots on the black curve.
We're now approaching the same part of the curve that we were in before
the pandemic. The red dot is our most recent data point May twenty twenty
four. Okay, so what does all this dynamic mean. Well, when
the unemployment rate is very low and job vacancies are very high, as they
were when the economy was overheated. The curve is steep, so when you
see the green dots moving down without moving much to the right, that means
vacancies can come down a lot with only a relatively small increase in unemployment.
This is a soft landing scenario. It's always been a narrow path and we
have yet to fully stick the landing. Looking forward, the unemployment rate could
rise further, particularly as the beverage curve is getting flatter, but we continue
to think that we don't need a large rise in the unemployment rate to get
inflation back to the two percent target. Inflation is not yet two percent,
but it is a lot closer, and with further and sustained easing and underlying
inflation in recent months, we are more confident that inflation will continue to move
closer to the target. So now turning to wage dynamics. When the labor
market was tight and inflation was high, wage growth increased, and depending on
the measure you look at, wage growth peaked between four and a half and
six percent. This was roughly twice the pre pandemic average of two to three
percent. With inflation now much lower and the labor market coming into better balance,
we are starting to see evidence the wage growth is moderating. The latest
numbers on a six month basis suggest wage growth has eased to about four percent.
This is clearly down from the peak, but still above the pre pandemic
average. Now, the fact that wages are moderating more slowly and inflation is
not sorry. The fact that wages are moderating more slowly than inflation is not
itself surprising. Wages tend to lag adjustment in employment. Going forward, we
will be looking for wage growth to moderate further. In assessing the implications of
wage growth for labor costs and inflation, it is important to separate out wage
gains that reflect productivity improvements. Wage gains that are backed by productivity gains do
not increase labor costs or inflationary pressures. In recent years, the number of
higher paying jobs in the economy has grown more than the number of lower paying
jobs, and what that means is that overall wage growth has been higher.
To the extent that this reflects workers gaining valuable news skills or finding jobs that
better match their skills, it shouldn't add to you to labor costs and inflation.
So when we're assessing the inflationary implications of wage growth. We place more
weight on wage measures that try to control for occupational shifts or labor cost measures,
and these are running a little lower than other wage measures, particularly if
you use the more timely six months rates of change. So that's the broad
adjustment in the labor market. It's been relatively it's been a relatively smooth cooling,
but the aggregate masks some important differences. Some workers are feeling to slow
down more than other. Employers may not be laying off workers in large numbers,
but less hiring over the last year means it's harder to find that first
job. That hurts new graduates and younger workers, as well as newcomers to
Canada. So let me take a moment to dig into some detail here.
The unemployment rate for newcomers is rising much faster than the overall unemployment rate.
Newcomers are taking longer to find a job. Look that's hard on them.
It's making it more difficult to integrate into the Canadian economy. It also suggests
that the government has some room to slow the growth of non permanent residents without
tightening the labor market too much and causing significant labor shortages. If you look
at younger workers, youth employment has also been softening again. The evidence suggests
that people establishing their jobs are not experiencing much of an increase in unemployment,
but with fewer new job vacancies, it's taking longer for young people entering the
labor market to find a job, so their unemployment rate has risen. It's
now about two percentage points above its pre pandemic average. Now it's worth stressing
that labor market adjustments are never evenly distributed and monetary policy can't target specific parts
of the labor market. But as we set monetary policy, the bank needs
to look beyond the aggregate to understand what this cooling in the labor market means
for different people. The overall unemployment rate is close to its pre pandemic level,
and it's still relatively low, but the slowdown in hiring has led to
increases in the unemployment for younger workers and newcomers to Canada. These workers are
feeling the effects of slower growth more than others, and we need to recognize
this. This matters for monetary policy because it indicates there is some slack in
the labor market that suggests the economy has room to grow and add more jobs
without creating new inflationary pressures. It also matters for household financial stress. People
who find it hard to get a job often find it harder to keep up
with their credit card and other debt payments. Many indicators of financial stress declined
during the pandemic, but they're now back to around where they were before the
pandemic, and late payments for credit cards and auto loans are actually above pre
pandemic levels. We see this stress particularly among renters, and these are often
these younger workers and newcomers to Canada. So let me now shift gears.
That was a short run I'm going to pivot to looking at the labor market
from a longer run perspective. For years, Canada's biggest economic advantage has been
its labor force, and that includes people with jobs and people who are looking
for jobs. Growth and employment in Canada has been much stronger than in the
United Kingdom, the Euer Area, and even the United States and has been.
This was true before the pandemic, and it was true through the pandemic
recovery. Our labor force advantage reflects three key strengths. High labor market participation,
strong immigration, and a good education system. So let me take each
of these in turn. First, Canada's labor force participation is stronger than in
these other countries. Our participate participation rate for women is at the top of
the G seven, and that's been helped by affordable childcare and flexible work arrangements.
Second, Canada tracts some of the world's best and brightest students and workers,
and we actually integrate them relatively quickly into the Canadian economy compared to many
other countries. On Our education system does a good job overall of developing the
workers the economy needs and businesses want to hire. Our post secondary attainment level
in Canada is the highest among advanced economies, although we do trail the United
States in the attainment of advanced degrees. Our Achilles heel is productivity. We
have been very good at growing our economy by adding workers. We've been much
less successful at increasing output per worker, and this is catching up to us.
While we manage to make up for our productivity under performance from twenty to
twenty nineteen with strong labor force growth. Since the pandemic, GDP growth in
Canada has been weaker than in the United States. As my colleague, Senior
Deputy Governor Carolyn Rodgers highlighted in March week, productivity growth in Canada is a
long standing issue and it's reaching emergency levels. As good as we've been a
growing our economy by adding workers, we need more than one engine moving forward.
As any great hockey coach would tell you, we need to play to
our strengths, and that's growing our labor force. While we tackle our weaknesses
investment and productivity. We should not take our labor market strengths those advantages.
We should not take them for granted. We need to maintain and build on
them. That means continuing to improve the accessibility of childcare. It means considered
efforts to improve labor force participation of groups that have traditionally been left out,
and here I'm thinking especially of Canada's Indigenous peoples, a growing pool of young
talent who have been excluded from economic opportunities for too long. It means aligning
immigration to long standing labor shortages in key areas like skilled trades. It means
properly recognizing credentials and qualifications and experience of imigrants. And it means sustaining and
enhancing our education system and ensuring it is developing students for the jobs of the
future. Tackling our productivity problem will be harder, but it is vital.
Productivity growth ensures our businesses are competitive in international markets, It pays for higher
wages, and it underpins rising standards of living. And with an aging population
and limits to how many immigrants we can absorb each year, improving our productivity
growth will become more important to sustained trend growth in Canada. Now, on
the surface, the cause of low productivity growth in Canada is clear enough.
On averages. On average, businesses in Canada invest much less per worker than
they do in the United States, and with less investment in mach machinery and
equipment, particularly information and communication technology, workers in Canada have less and less
and older machines and computers to work with, and weaker investment in intellectual property
means they have fewer innovations to help them work smarter, faster and more efficiently.
So it's not surprising they're less productive. But the deeper question is why
have we had systematically less investment in Canada than in the United States, Or
to put the question in the positive, how do we make Canada more investable.
Finding answer these questions is going to be critical to if we want to
increase non inflationary growth and raise the standard of living of Canadians. It's time
for me to conclude price stability is our primary mandate and a healthy labor market
and price stability go hand in hand. If employment is well below its maximum
sustainable level, the economy is missing jobs and incomes, and this puts downward
pressure on inflation, pushing it below or two percent target. That's what happened
early in the pandemic. When the economy is operating above maximum sustainable employment,
businesses aren't able to find the workers they need to keep up with demand.
That puts upward pressure on prices and pushes inflation above our target. That's where
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Even as inflation continues to move closer to the target, We're not yet
back to two percent, and we can't rule out that there will be some
new bumps along the way, but increasingly we look to be on our way.
Assessing the health of the labor market from various angles is an important input
into our monetary policy decisions beyond the near term. A healthy labor market is
critical to strong non inflationary growth in Canada. We've been successful at expanding our
economy by growing our labor force. To sustain this advantage, we need to
keep investing in an inclusive labor market, smart immigration, and a strong and
accessible education system. Let's not take these for granted as we tackle our productivity
problem. Thank you. Okay, final thoughts security. There was a president
I believe there was a president in the past that said, if you want
security, that there are prisons across the country to help keep you secure.
Okay. The bottom line message to that is that the more we increase security,
the more freedoms we are actually going to lose. We have to find
ways to police ourselves before something comes along and forms of regulation. The more
that we have government involved in our daily lives, the less freedoms we actually
do have. The more laws that are created, the less wiggle room we
have to be ourselves. I'm not putting this out there as a revolt against
government, but I'm asking for people to do is to start voting for smaller
government to limit the roles that government actually has in our lives. And the
way to do that not only by voting, but also by settlling disputes with
those that are around us among ourselves without violence, by talking things out and
setlling things by coming to agreements and standing by those agreements with our own neighbors.
Some of what we're asking our government to actually do can be done by
ourselves. Some of what we're asking our governments to do on a much greater
scale, global scale, actually starts with us doing it with our neighbors around
us. By coming to agreements among ourselves, we can actually project that in
ways so that we see fewer armed conflicts settling global agreements. We hear terminology
being used the illegal evasion of Ukraine by the Russian Federation and Vladimir Putin.
But when we look at the rhetoric that around this, why are we not
hearing how illegal the invasion of Gaza is. No one wrote down on a
piece of paper saying here, here's express written permission for Israel to attack Gaza.
At the same time, no one gave express written permission for the Hamas
to go take hostages and invade the Israeli territories. Why is it so important
that we point out how illegal the invasion was. With Vladimir Putin, we
have to be careful with what we see in rhetoric and how it is things
are projected, how we place sanction, we watch our government place sanctions against
other governments, our agreements to these things. We have to make sure that
our government is acting in fair and equal ways. And one of the ways
to ensure that our government is won by shrinking how our government can can affect
our lives. By putting more government officials in charge of the Internet, what
we are essentially doing is we are handing over the keys of control of the
information that we are allowed to see to the corporations who are already governing the
Internet, by those corporations that are creating the algorithms to begin with, the
Secretary of General of the United Nations says that we should should start to see
these algorithms be freer so that the majority, more of the majority of people
can be heard. But by placing more and more government regulations to the Internet,
we will actually see more and more corporate messages appear, because they are
the corporations who created the message the algorithms. To begin with. We need
to be careful about how we see security and what we're asking for insecurity.
And that's the bottom line is if we want to maintain our freedom, we
have to be careful of the regulations and the laws that we're asking from our
government. Thank you for listening to Bolt and writes her own Depictions Media Radio,
I've been your host, Michael Cloggs. This show has been produced by
Depictions Media. Please contact us at depictions dot media for more information