What is a fellow thermonuclear a efforts. I am Dan Vavalley coming at you
with my certified fantabulous co host Grant Who's we are joined by the also certified
fantabulous, the one, the only legendary, one of the people's favorites,
Caitlyn Cooper of I'm just gonna call it the galactic like famous basketball. She
wrote, I don't know what the is it a newsletter? I'm gonna cause
a newsletter. Okay, it's a blog about the basketball played by the Indiana
Pacers. That is the sub official subtitle basketball. She wrote a blog about
basketball being played by the Indiana Pacers. Please go subscribe to that. The
links are in the podcast and YouTube descriptions. You can follow Caitlin on the
Twitter machine as well at C two Underscore. Cooper spelled egg zactly as it
sounds. We were going to talk about if you didn't guess already, the
twenty twenty three twenty four Indiana Pacers one of the most fascinating teams in the
NBA. Think, and as people have already started to catch on, there'll
be a league past favorite, I think for a lot of basketball fans.
The first and most important question though, before we begin, Caitlin, how
the heck are you doing? Doing well? I'm always excited to get the
return invite back to this particular podcast. I've told you this before, but
I think you asked tremendous questions that are very insightful about all thirty teams,
and that's not easy to do. So thank you for inviting me to come
back. Thank you for coming back. I'm waiting for the year and I've
said it's to Grant where You're just gonna be like I'm too famous for the
podcast, like we just I can't do it. And I also said to
Grant yesterday while we were recording, doing the outline for the Pacers is among
the hardest because one, I want to ask questions that are on your level,
but you've influenced mine, and I'm sure Grant's opinions so much on the
Pacers that it's hard to just not regurgitate, like what we've just consumed from
Caitlin, Grant, how are you doing? Nobody cares, Dan, But
thanks for not thanking me for coming back, because we did one yesterday and
I'm back contractually obligated on that piece of paper you have not signed to return.
Okay, well, I guess that's true, but I'm here so contractually
obligated or otherwise. Yeah, I would echo what Dan said to Caitlyn.
If I say something that you wrote and pretend as if it's my opinion,
just move past it. So we'll just try to move past it. We
are all happy to see, though, Grant, that you're set up is
back to normal. As a peeple in the court to editing, some of
the shorts clips got a little difficult because of your angle, and I was
the idiot that kept these little descriptors on that we needed, so if anyone
cares about that, But Grant is fully restored to his typical frame, So
we're excited. Let's start here. Caitlyn. Looking at last season, first,
what was the driving force behind the pre Haliburton injury success Where they were
I think they were twenty three and nineteen when he went out for that extended
period of time, right, So I don't know that I would necessarily term
it as the driving force, but I think it's important to say that a
big contributing factor is that they were catching some injury look early on at the
season when they kind of stormed into being the surprise team and the one five
game stretch that I always kind of like to look at and explaining that segment
of the season. They won five games in a row. So the first
win, they played the Raptors. No Siak, I'm no Fred van Vleet.
And during the first half they're under size, they're giving up there.
The Raptors are going to the free throw line over and over again, making
a parade there. So after halftime they start doubling all the bully drives.
The Raptors go like three of twenty one from three in the second half,
which is a fair gamble given what their roster limitations are as far as shooting,
and the Pacers win that game. So then they play the Hornets.
It gets to be the fourth quarter, very close game. LaMelo Ball and
Benedic Mathern are kind of exchanging scoring barbs, going back and forth. The
Pacers decide we're going to half court trap LaMelo. The Hornets shoot like one
of nine fourth quarter from three. Then they play Houston. Eric Gordon is
ethering them. They have to make the adjustment to go switch to blitz No
Kevin Porter Jr. Then they get two wins over the Orlando Magic and Palo
ban Caro and Wendell Carter Junior don't play in either game, and they also
went switched to blitz against Brons Wagner. So the story I'm kind of trying
to paint here is the Pacers deserved to get all those wins. They made
smart adjustments that they were having to go to very extreme defensive tactics in order
to give themselves a chance to outscore what was five opponents who didn't end up
being in the playoff picture. So that was kind of leading to some of
the early season's success. And I was a little bit of a Debbie downer
because I was like, I think that they're overachieving at this point in time.
And then when they got into being in December and they made the lineup
change where they switched from Jalen Smith at the starting power forward and went to
Aaron E. Smith and we're playing even smaller. They went eight in two
right before Tyrese got hurt, and I believed in that a little bit more
because they were finally finding like other ways to win. Tyrese was really finding
his way and clutched time and in closing time, he hit the game winner
against the Miami Heat dealing with the heat switches. They also beat Portland,
where they held Portland to like two points over the last six minutes. They
played Charlotte again, and when in the prior game Charlotte had stayed and dropped,
this game, they showed the Pacers a lot of different types of coverages
and the Pacers adjusted, and I was like, Hey, this is actually
meaningful because they're showing that they can win in more than one way. They
played the Raptors again, they absolutely crushed their bench, and then Tyrese obviously
got hurt. So I think my short answer here and kind of like summarizing
their season is I don't think they were quite as good as what they looked
like during the very early portion of the season. I think that Tyrese halibert
and made meaningful strides, and then by the end of the year when they
shifted development mode, I also don't think they were as bad as what they
showed at the end of the year. So I think they're somewhere right in
the middle, just based on comparing themselves to last year. I'm going to
blow up the outline already because something you said really piqued my interest about the
various different, you know, kitchen sink type of tactics that the Pacers used
during the stretcher you're talking about earlier in the year where let's try X,
Y and Z to get some defensive success here, and you know, certain
things worked and maybe those aren't sustainable. How do you see them being equipped
going into the season, assume everybody's healthy. I know it's hard to know
certainly, like what some of the front court rotation is going to look like.
Do you see them having more of like a base set up with the
personnel they have to defend consistently? You know, this is not going to
be a top ten maybe not even top half of the league defense, But
what would you look at and point too, as you know, ways that
defensively, this could be sort of a more solid, sustainable, consistent kind
of outfit. Yeah, that's a great question, and I think the top
thing that you can kind of look at to see where there might be changes
to look at how they were using Miles Turner, so like, just to
give a matchup example, if they're playing a team like Cleveland with last year's
starting lineup Andrew Nemhard and aaron Nie Smith would get a signed to the top
two options, so one of them would be assigned at Darius Garland, the
other would go on Donovan Mitchell. Then Tyrese Haliburton would typically most games be
assigned to someone like Isaaca Coro, where he's not having to defend on ball,
he can conserve energy, and also he's he still has a light ways
to go with a screen navigation and getting overpowered in those types of situations.
So then you're also starting Buddy held, So that means the Buddy Heeld is
going to be defending Jared Allen and Miles Turner's defending Evan Mobley. So Buddy
would then be switching on all the ball screens. They would switch all the
other screens, keep Miles Turner low to try to prevent their being lobs.
And because you have to have this backstop, you have to have him his
passive size around the basket all the time because you're giving up so much size
everywhere else. Now, like if you're playing a lineup with Jarress Walker,
for example, you have an extra secondary rim protector. So now maybe you
can put Miles Turner back at the five spot where he's just swallowing up pick
and rolls. Again, you can play Jarress Walker as the lowman, use
his off ball instincts. And I think that you'll probably see from the Pacers,
not in every matchup, because I'm sure they'll adjust based on who their
personnel is, because that's what this coaching staff tends to do, but just
an overall maybe a relaxation and what they were able to do, especially just
having more size at the fourth spot where you're not having to constantly double the
post and double other spots on the floor where they're putting themselves into rotation and
making it harder to box out into rebound as well. So I think that's
the main shift that you'll see. Does Bruce Brown well, I mean he
will, Like what type of impact does Bruce Brown have on that defensive approach
because he spends? And then is there a trickle net like are they going
to use him at the point of attack as much as Denver did? And
if they do, what kind of a trickle down does that have on some
of the other players on this roster are gonna be playing alongside him? I
would imagine to start games that you're going to have to play Bruce Brown at
the point of attack, because like look at that Cleveland matchup again, I
would anticipate that Andrew Nemhard and aaron Nie Smith are not going to be starting,
So you're looking at Tyree's, Benedict Matherin, Bruce Brown, either Obie
or Jars Walker, and Miles Turner. So in that arrangement, you're probably
putting Tyres Haliburton on Max Struss, which is going to be different than guarding
Isaac Accorro. You're obviously gonna have to track Max is a more threatening shooter,
but Bruce is going to have to defend either Darius or Donovan Mitchell,
which means you don't have both Nemhard and Nie Smith out there. Ben's gonna
have to take one of those top options, which they were doing a little
bit more of that over the final ten games of the year last year,
and having him test that, We're like, okay, Ben, we're putting
you on Fred van Fleet from the start of this game, and we're going
to challenge you to do that, or okay, Ben, or putting you
on Jade and Ivy in the final home game of the season and to see
what you can do. And I think that that was a pretty mixed bag.
There's times where he can be a stopper, like, oh, Shay,
Gil just just hunted me in space and I really held up and I
gotta stop in a key moment of a game. And there's other times where
we're up in Toronto and you put me on Fred Van Fleet. My screen
navigation isn't good and I can't lay switch and veer into the rollers. So
now we've had to make the adjustment where Aaron Nie Smith's guarding Purdle so we
can start switching these ball screens. And I'm being assigned to somebody else by
the second half. So I think that Bruce Brown's trickle down effect is He's
going to be valuable because you need to have a point of attack defender out
there if Tyres and Ben are both in the starting lineup. But it's gonna
put more pressure on Benedict Matherin to take on top assignments as well, because
you don't have two people being neim Hard and Nie Smith anymore out there.
As as I look at this this, well what the roster for this coming
season. There's a couple of unknowns, and you know Obi Toppin being one,
but Matherin to me, and I'm so curious about your opinion on this.
Seems like such a swing player because you know, he said and I've
heard you say that the expectation is that he's going to start. And just
looking back at last season, you know, nim Hard and Haliburton were if
you're just looking at like who played the most minutes together in the back court,
those guys shared the court a lot. It sounds like if Matherin is
out there, you're not. You're certainly gonna hope that he can defend,
and I guess we'll see and hope that he can do a lot of the
other things that don't involve, you know, getting fouled and you know,
being a shot creator for himself essentially. How do you I just I'm so
fascinated by the Matherin Haliburton and then Brown, I guess, and heeled comes
off the bench. Maybe that's just the push and pull that that's going to
create on offense and defense is fascinating to me. How do you see Matherin,
you know, taking up some of these new tasks that he's just gonna
have to you know, the defensive responsibility will be bigger, right, I
assume, and he's going to be asked to do just more than score.
I would imagine if he's going to be a starter and not what I thought
last year was a really effective, you know, prototypical six man spark plug
type of scorer. Yeah, when you consider swapping Buddy out for Ben,
it's like if the question was in the short term that the Pacers just want
to win games, I think the clear answer would be you would be starting
Buddy healed because if you look at the numbers, like they did narrowly outscore
opponents with Buddy and Tyree's both on the floor, When either just one of
them was on the floor without the other, they got wrecked. Like both
cases. If Tyrese was out there without Buddy, I think they got outscored
by like seven point ninety nine. If Buddy was out there without Tyrese,
I think they got outscored by like six point three. So the reasons for
that, Like tyres is the engine of what they do in transition, but
Buddy is very much an extension of it. He led the league and made
transition threes last year per game. He led the league in attempts between twenty
two and eighteen seconds on the shot clock. His willingness to run off of
makes and missus and be able to stop and pop is obviously very valuable.
And then also in the half court, the tension that he provides as a
ghost screener, like one of the main tactics if Tyrese gets a switch,
as they will use Buddy to go ghost that switch. He provides tension as
a stack screener. He just knows where to move in tandem with Halibert and
they have a real wavelength. That was the number one assist combo in the
NBA on made threes. So I think that you would still lean Buddy there
if you were just solely trying to win games. But in the long term,
the pacers need to know by the end of next year. I like
that you said how critical of a year this is going to be, because
they need to know it's a critical piece of this core. Is he a
foundational piece or does he top out as more of a six man? And
like it's gonna be interesting to watch because his usage swung pretty wildly, Like
it was like nineteen percent when he played with Tyrese versus like twenty six percent
when he didn't. So the arrangement made sense last year, I felt to
bring him off the bench, and also just the accountability of it, like
they weren't. They made him earn those minutes and earned that by the end
of the season, and like really held him accountable defensively that if he made
mistakes on that end of the floor, like it just playing time wasn't unconditional.
There was an earned element to it, and I think that there was
value to that. But they need to know by the end of last year.
Next year how he fits with Tyrese and I think that that means starting
him, So it will be interesting to watch, like if because of what
some of the limitations are in his game, if they're also starting Bruce Brown
and they're also starting Obie Topp, and that's going to be a difference than
when your middle three starters were Buddy Nemharden Yi Smith. As far as like
half court spacing, and they already weren't a great half court offensive team last
year. I think they were like twenty second according to Clean the Glass.
So if Ben sees more defenders loading up on his drives because of that,
and he also struggles he already struggles with passing out of drives. How much
patients are they going to have rather than being like, Okay, this isn't
working, We're gonna go to buddy heeled like I think you're gonna have to
exercise patients. Yeah, what what Matherin? So with Matherin you say,
and I think this is right that the Pacers need to know what they have.
Sort of up and paraphrasing, but what singular skill do you think the
Pacers would be most encouraged were they to see him show it in season two
because they're you know, he's just watching him play. He's he's a a
quirky catch and shoot player, Like he doesn't seem to like it, but
he has such other innate skills with you know, drawing contact and and there's
there's so much there. What what do you think the Pacers are you know,
maybe behind closed doors or is it obvious like they really need him to
show this to feel good about going forward. I actually think it's like three
main things. If I had to pick one. I liked that you said
that he's a quirky catch and shoot player because he's very wired to catch and
drive and spot up situations. And I think he still needs to grow in
his reed of closeouts because he started last year shooting the ball at a pretty
good level and then after you know, about midway through, that really tapered
off. I think he finished it around like thirty between thirty one and thirty
three percent on jump shots. So he started seeing shorter closeouts. And when
he sees the shorter closeouts, he has a tendency he wants to play out
a triple threat, so his go to is to jab right and to put
the ball on the floor of his left He drives left on like sixty percent
of his drives, and he'll do that even when he doesn't see a close
out. And this is why I think that he's gonna see change and how
he gets guarded next year, because if he's not hitting the three at a
decent level and then he's automatically driving to his left. I wrote a piece
on Patreon where I tracked all of his passes, skip passes, and passes
to the right side of the floor from the left side of the floor.
He never made one with his left hand, so at Summer League you can
see times where they were really loading up on the drives because he loves to
rip the ball baseline and go to his left. If you bring the second
help defender to him, he ranked like in the bottom five percent of past
percentage among players who average at least five drives per game, So there's already
reason to do that, and then if the spacings less, there's going to
be even more added reason to do that. So I think just shooting the
inflow shots that come to him without double clutching or kind of playing with his
food would be really big for him because that all allow him to beat the
first level of the defense while you're still waiting for his passing to develop,
because I think that's going to take time because I think some of its skill
based and some of its processing based in terms of him recognizing where kickout avenues
are. So I think the shooting is number one. But if you were
to ask the Pacers, and I think Jad Buchanan even touched on this on
the broadcast at Summer League, they need to see him his shot go back
where it was at the beginning of last season. They want him to pass
the ball when he gets to the rim and recognize winning needs to pass the
ball, and then defensively, they need him to make stride in most areas.
There's just not a lot of things you can list right now where he's
like really strong defensively, but he's so special at drawing contact. I do
want people like, if you didn't watch the Pacers a lot last year.
Over the last five seasons, there's only been five rookies who have averaged over
five free throw times per game, and these are high level players. It's
Zion Palin, Bert, Caro Mathern, Luca and Trey Young. So that's
the list. So he's very good, He's very flexible in the air.
He definitely bends into contact. It's a it's a gift, and it's not
one that the Pacers have had an abundant supply for a very long time.
So you sort of alluded to this are earlier. But if the continued investment
in Mathren's development is going to be so stark, You've now added Bruce Brown,
you have Tyrese Haliburton, Buddy Healed, and Andrew Nemhard. It seems
like one of them is gonna, you know, kind of suffer from this.
And I think it's easy to say, well, Buddy Heals about to
be a free agent. He might not be happy coming off the bench anyway
will be him that's marginalized. But also because of his shooting and the way
this team is built, you wonder if he might be a little bit more
important than Nemhard. You see either one of them seeing their roles be put
in jeopardy or be diminished significantly because of how invested the Pacers are, again
not just in mathin but they did just pay Bruce Brown a lot of money.
The one that concerns me the most is the potential for Andrew Nemhard's role
to get crunched, because I think with Buddy it's most logical for him to
be the first player off the bench and come into the game because of what
his wavelength with Haliburton is. I suspect that he will come in early and
that Ben might be the first player out just so that he can have more
room to stretch his legs, and because defensively there's going to be more insulation
for both of them potentially in bench lineups if you're talking about you know,
nem or t J. McConnell, Jariss, and then whoever the five person
ends up being. But with Andrew, it's interesting because if like obviously two
game sample sizes of Summer League are immensely you know, meaningful, and tell
you everything about how a player is going to play the next year. But
Andrew was very impressed in those two games, And the way you can tell
how impressive he was is by what the offense looked like when he was no
longer playing. It was very rough them getting into their sets, and I
just thought he was very comfortable moseying to his spots. He plays slow and
like the best possible way when he's manipulating the pick and roll, and defensively
he was quite good. And you could tell this by how often you could
hear their bench saying good Drew, good Drew. When he was er switching
and really navigating out at the point of attack, I think he adds a
lot. But then, like what you just said, at the starting lineup,
like Andrew's reward for that play at Summer League might be going from being
a second round pick who became a key starter largely because of his defense.
Too. Now I've shown really good reads offensively, to the point where I
felt after one quarter at Summer League he had shown enough. He played the
entire first quarter and he didn't need to play anymore. He did but he
didn't need to play anymore to potentially, you know, depending upon what they
do with t J McConnell, you go from being a starter to maybe an
off ball guard in the second unit. And Buddy heelds the sixth man,
so I think he's probably the most likely can to get crunched. And if
I were in charge, I would be finding a way for him to play
out of ball screens and run the second unit. That's what I would be
doing. But we'll see how the Pacers see that. We've talked a lot
about the guards, and I think because some of the give and take of
the various options, they're so interesting. I don't know that we would be
having to make so many well what if this guy or that guy decisions if
Obie Toppin weren't on the roster. And that's the other big offseason acquisition,
and he's part of the reason I think the Pacers may not be as small
as they were as often as they were last year. He's a really interesting
player topping I think probably the consensus is he was not set up to succeed
with the Knicks, just with the way their roster was and the things he
was asked to do. I think, what do you think about his fit
specifically next to Miles Turner and what he you know, if this works,
what our X, Y and Z that will that will happen? And if
it doesn't work, where did the hiccups come from? You think with that
pairing? Yeah, I mean, I think the biggest shift for Obie will
obviously be that he's going into playing in a scheme that ranked you know,
second in time to shoot after a made shot. He loves the league out
He's going to be going to a team that plays and wants to play in
transition frequency. He and Tyres have an existing relationship off the court. I
think that Tyres is very excited to play with him. And also just from
the Knicks standpoint, he's never played with a big who can step out to
the perimeter. He's played with Mitchell Robinson, he's played with Netherlands, He's
played with Taj Gibson. I looked up and for his entire career he's attempted
twenty seven shots as the role man moving to the basket. So I said
that on whatever I can't remember which I think he might have been the dunked
on podcast you did, and I was like it was believable, but I
was just like appalled, Yeah, because I mean there were times where he
did roll, but it would be like you'd be watching he and Mitchell Robinson
both rolling off a double and like yeah, and like that might cause some
confusion, but like he wasn't often the person touching the ball in those situations.
So I do think there's definitely a tyrese halibert in effect. You can
see the swing and Turner's two point percentage when he plays with tyrese versus when
he doesn't. I think that that will be really good for Obie. Like
I said, the spacing with Miles, the transition frequency, like I think
the environment is all set up. Like last year, Obi set fewer screens
than ever, he attempted more threes than ever, and had fewer paint touches
than ever. That's not going to be the case with the Pacers. What
I wonder is is if Obi has like a quote unquote breakout year, whatever
that means for him in this context, I'm not saying he's going to be
like an All Star or something for the Pacers. I do think he could
have a very nice season for them, and that we'll be talking about him
in a different context than we are right now. Is what will that mean
for Miles Turner and what will it mean for Jaris Walker because and Miles's case,
like, yes, he can space out to three, but I think
what he showed last year is that he's better as a five being defended by
fives. Over the last two years, when he's defended by centers, he
shoots forty percent from three. When he's defended by forwards, he shoots like
thirty two percent from three. This is at a marginalizing effect on him throughout
his career, going back to win even before Sabonus when it was Thad,
they'd play games against Philadelphia and Ben Simmons would guard Miles and Joel Embid would
guard thatd because Dad was around the basket, and then that would mean,
oh, we don't want Ben Simmons to switch on to the ball. So
Miles is standing in the corner and he's kind of made it clear that he
isn't super happy with that type of a role in the past tense. You
know the article about I'm just a glorified role player here, so you know,
if Obi Toppin isn't just attempting twenty seven shots is the role man and
he's the person rolling to the basket. That means Miles is going to be
doing more of the stuff that he was doing in the past. So what
sort of effect that will have? Like if you're going after somebody at the
four spot and it's like Pascal Siakam, I think you accept, Okay,
Miles Turner might take a step back here, but we're getting an All NBA
caliber player if it's you know, because Obie or Jarris's shot isn't falling as
well, and there's cross matching like what happened with Jalen Smith last year to
the point where they ended up needing to change the starting lineup because it was
disrupting their offense. Then I think it's a little bit different calculus. And
also if Obie breaks out, like you just drafted Jarress Walker at spot number
eight, so you know, how does he ascend and move up the food
chain so to speak? But I think the environment set up for Obie Topping
to have a good season. What I've been told by people who are much
martyr than I that I'm too low on Jarress Walker. I don't understand the
theory of him on offense, and I've heard you talk about how maybe he
could play and you've been very clear not comparing him to Draymond Green, but
he could play some of that like facilitator role. What do you envision for
him, what does he want do well on offense? And to what do
you envision for him offensively on this patience team, whether it's lineups or specific
functions that they're going to try and apply to him. I will say this,
I don't think that what he was doing in summer League was a good
reflection of what he does well on offense. He was taking he did not
shoot the ball well. He had to have a loose body removed from his
elbow. They announced that a week after, so I don't know how much
that was affecting his jump shot. He shot like eight to forty on jump
shots. And then when Andrew and Ben were no longer playing, they didn't
really have anybody else to run the offense. So it was a lot of
point jariss and ways that I just do not think you're going to see during
the regular season next year when you have Tyrese and Andrew and t J McConnell.
And then like you could also hear during the Dallas game when Jared Dudley
was coaching, he was yelling like shrink anytime Jars had it on the perimeter,
and they were sinking in off of everybody except for Ben Sheppard. So
that was just making his overall shop profile a lot more difficult. So his
efficiency looked pretty poor from those four games. I do think that he has
more to show there. I don't know that I necessarily think he's going to
be like a high volume, you know, floor spacer, and that was
kind of what I wrote in my piece about him. During the pre draft
processes, I watched how teams guarded him because that's the true measure of spacing,
is how you get guarded when you're not shooting, and that was showing
up a lot against Virginia's pack line. But I think how you envision him
is like what you mentioned there when I made the comparisons to Draymond, like
he did get to do on occasion at Summer League. The sets were like
you're setting us dagger. Maybe Ben Shepherd's the person who's going to fly off
the stagger. He curls the first pick with Jared's setting it, and then
Jared's would turn around and fly off the second, get the ball, fake
a handoff back to that guy, and then turn the ball downhill. He
has a very sneaky keeper. He's good at the fake handoffs that Draymond likes
to use against switches, which I think could pair really well with Tyrese Halibert
and as a pull up threat. And then he also has some short role
chops in his bag and making reads there. Of course, it helps when
you're playing with somebody like Tyrese who can shoot off the dribble. That's not
going to be super available to him with TJ McConnell as the point guard when
people are ducking under, but that's something that he can do. I think
that he processes the game at a high level. And what I said before
on our other podcast about liking guys who can keep playing when plays break down,
that's something that Jared's can do. I think you can use him as
a DHO operator and then I'd just like to see him more as a screener,
like we basically didn't get to see that at Summer League. I think
he finished one shot as the role man because Andrew wasn't playing anymore and he
was having to be the pick and roll ball handler, Like there were times
he was dribbling off a double drag and assisting Isaiah Thomas at Isaiah Thomas Isaiah
Jackson at the rim. So like it was just a lot different role that
I don't really think is what's going to be seen from him a lot during
the regular season. On the other end, for Walker, you know,
we started out talking about kind of the different levers the Pacers may need to
pull to kind of figure out what the defensive matchups need to be with sort
of suboptimal and smallish, you know, guarden wing personnel. Is it unfair
it's a sort of hope that Jared's is just someone that can kind of come
in and put out the fire, like because his defensive versatility is a huge,
you know, part of his makeup. And is it unfair to think,
like, well, if we've got a like a shooting guard that's getting
loose and we just can't do anything, can you throw him at someone like
that? Or is that not quite you know, realistic. The Pacers,
when they talked about its pre draft workout, talked about how impressed they were
when he was guarding their assistant coach Pargo space and in isolations. I think
that I land on the side that he's better at switching out to like two
threes and fours. So when they played Oklahoma City, he played some minutes
at the five. He was defending Chet home Grin and they were having him
switch out, and I didn't think that went very well on either side of
the pick and roll. Chet had a massive advanced size advantage over their guards
and was basically just dropping the ball in over the top and on the perimeter.
Jaris was giving up some step back threes. He wasn't playing as close
to the ball I think as you would like. But I think in general
it's always tough to expect a lot from rookies on the defensive end right away.
But I just think it's his instincts are just really good as a help
defender, and his hands are so quick, Like he gets away with gambles
that other people just like it would be so damaging to your defense, but
for him it works like he can go block shots from the wing and it's
fine an emergency rotation, or he can shoot passing lanes and it works out
for him. So the Pacers bar is so low at the fourth spot from
last year that I find it hard to think that he isn't going to provide
some level of improvement right away. I'm fascinated by this team's frontline rotation because
you've talked about it, and it seems like the assumption is Obi Toppin will
start next to Turner. They're clearly invested in Jars Walker. But when you
mentioned the concern about we saw a bunch of different stuff for Miles Turner last
year. Like he was able to set more screens, we saw him get
more interior touches. We saw him have more slips and cuts to the basket
when you're describing like what his offensive role was, if you're worried about limiting
it, it doesn't feel like it's a great fit for Jarss Walker. We
don't know if it's a good fit for Obi Toppin. Does that increase the
importance of Jawn Smith? If you're still invested in Turner, do we read
into well, maybe they won't use Obie topping as the screener so often because
he did get up. I think it was like eight and a half three
point attempts per thirty six minutes last year. How do you sort of just
see that frontline hodgepods after Turner sort of shaking out. I mean, Obi
Toppin did say that in conversation with Rick Carlisle that he's been told he's gonna
play around the basket more, which I mean relative to what he was in
doing in New York. Even if it split as even he is going to
be playing around the basket more. And ideally, like you would have two
bigs on the floor who could roll or who could pop. So if Obie
shot can carry over to a degree, then it's maybe it is that Fors
will continue guarding Obie Topping and then they can both do a little bit of
everything and it's less predictable about who's gonna roll or who's gonna pop on a
double drag. With regards to Jalen, I just kind of think about the
backup five spot, and it's curious because a different guy kind of pairs well
with a different person off the bench. So like in Jalen's case, he
did not shoot the ball well. Like I think of the people there was
like one hundred and sixty nine players who attempted a one hundred and fifty catch
and shoot threes last year, and Jalen's conversion rate was the worst out of
all of them, but at least he does shoot, like the positioning of
it does matter. You don't have to tether him to the dunker spot.
So I think that might let Jars do more things that we weren't getting to
see at Summer League when he's playing with Isaiah Jackson and he's playing with Oscar
Tacibway and those guys are occupying that space in the middle of the floor,
So there might be some more versatility to see what jareds can do offensively.
But Andrew Nemhard plays pairs really well with Isaiah Jackson as a rollman. Andrew
assisted him more at the rim than anybody on the roster. The numbers pair
this out when you look at them as a pick and roll combination. They
produce more points per direct pick between Andrew and Isaiah than Andrew and Jalen.
So it kind of depends on what your priorities are there. If you want
to base the second unit's offense around the Andrew Nemhard Isaiah Jackson pick and roll
combination, that I guess JAREDS is going to have to figure it out.
You're going to be seeing what he is is more of a stretch. For
if you're more concerned with developing jars, then I think you would lean toward
Jalen or maybe you know, even Daniel Tis. I do think Tys is
better right now as a player than Isaiah and Jalen. But can he play
in a fast paced scheme? Really know? Because he only played like seven
games last year, I didn't see enough to know if he can hold up
trying to do that. So fever World Cup champion, Yeah, gold medalist,
Daniel Tyson. You need that version of Daniel Tyson next year. We've
gone a long time without really talking about Tyrese Halibert, and I don't know
that we even really make for you, by the way, Grant, I
mean, just because I think we're all in agreement, and anyone that has
watched much of him agrees it just offensively, he's you know, special.
But for me, having watched probably more Warriors games than any other team over
the last you know, fifteen, well of my whole life, if we're
being honest, the one thing that's really interesting to me is the way that
his rise is sort of paralleling Steph Curry's in one specific respect, which is
he gets kind of picked on by defense by opposing offenses and a huge you
know, you're never going to take him off the floor obviously, because that's
just a non starter. So the Warriors, you know, years ago,
it's quaint to think about it now, but like, oh, pre switching,
we can pre switch, like that's a thing, and you know the
things they've done to hide Curry evolved from there. What can the Pacers do?
Do they need to do? They need to quote unquote hide Tyrese?
Do they you know this isn't new to them. I mean you saw it
last year where he was, you know, attacked quite a bit. How
do you expect that to shake out this year when you know, maybe they
still don't have great options to just like stick him on someone non threatening and
hope nobody notices. It was curious early on in the season because I mentioned
that game against the Raptors when Fred and Siakam were available, and everything from
the Raptors was like bully drive after bully drive, just getting a mismatch in
the post, which is kind of how their offense is a lot of the
time when you think about it. But it was surprising how little they were
going at Tyrese in that particular game, and I was like, I'm surprised
at how infrequently teams are doing this. Then when he came back from injury,
it was like a feeding frenzy. Like they played Dallas in particular,
Luca was going after Tyres frequently and even it did so much about his defense,
which is certainly a part of it, but like wearing him down as
the transition engine, there's an added incentive to be doing this, so like
Utah, like Colin Sexton was calling him up into picks, Lori Markenen was
hunting him in the post. It was like every possession, it felt like
in the crunch time of that game. And you talk about pre switching,
like this is where we're at. Buddy healed, gets pre switched into picks
so that Tyrese doesn't have to guard them, and again, like that's a
part to preserve how important Tyres is. But when you feel more comfortable with
Buddy doing that than you do with Tyrese, like that kind of says a
lot. That's a bit of a nine one one call. So the Pacers
were already doing like a lot of things last year. I feel they would
pre switch him out of actions. You would see them do scram switches to
get him off of post mismatches. They did switch to blitz type stuff that
was typically more with bigs, but there were occasions where like, Okay,
we're just gonna get the ball out of that guy's hands. Maybe we can
dictate who's going to beat us from there. And then the main thing I
mentioned Luca is that if there was a favorable switch with Tyrese, it was
almost like the paciers went into a two three zone because the other person at
the top would immediately be at the nail providing passive help. And if their
guy cut, they didn't follow the cutter, So that was another aspect of
it. I think it's just gonna be like switch and shrink, honestly,
like and just having guys who are better getting in and out from those types
of situations, having more lateral size and links to be rotating out of those
situations. And then also like an area that he could improve that I think
is headgen recover, like just don't give up that switch. I could just
be more active to prevent it from even happening in the first place. But
I mean, it's definitely a thing like there's a reason why it's gotten brought
up, and it's something he's acknowledged, like he's like to be honest,
like I think guys need to get stronger. Guys overpower me a lot,
and if I'm going to hold people on this team accountable, like it starts
with me. So Tyres is always very self reflective and he's probably about as
hard on himself as anybody is. So we'll see when the season starts if
he's made more strides there. I didn't see a lot of significant ones on
ball at the World Cup. Obviously we all saw the play where Oaps got
the corner three when he was trying to trail through the off ball picks.
So some of the screen navigation is still gonna have to get better. But
I do anticipate that, you know, for a team that was icing a
lot of pick and rolls that was you know, doing a lot more peel
switching, next thing, kind of more complex defensive tactics, that there's going
to be more funneling to Miles Turner. So we'll see how that if that
helps out Tyres at all. More viewer switching, those types of tactics,
I think there will be a switch in what they do. Have you noticed,
as someone that's watched, you know, every possession, does he also
just talking about Haliburton, get the you know, the second he gets off
the ball, the Curry treatment, which is we're gonna grab, we're gonna
hold because we're trying to wear you down because you're so valuable to off the
offense. Does he get some of that same treatment or I guess it's different
because nobody's off the ball running around as much as Curry as well. Right,
And that's actually an area where I wrote when I did a thing about
Team USA and like things that I had noticed about him during the friendlieses,
I still think that's an area where he could actually improve. Is that in
certain circumstances because he has young growth against switches offensively, But like one thing
that I like that didn't happen a lot last year. And the reason I
bring this up is because like, if you play the heat, it's much
better for the pacers not to be having you know, and most teams not
to be trying to attack a switch head on. It gets bam out of
bio. Right, So like if Tyrese gets that switch and then gives it
the ball to like Andrew Nemart, and then Nemard intentionally drives at baym.
The natural inclination for most bigs is to help off and on the drive,
and then Andrew gives the ball back to Tyrese, and Tyrese can attack that
switch through a close out then and get into the defense and make a play
there. So for Tyrese's sake, I feel like he could still be better
at sliding into passing windows at times. And that's why I was watching those
minutes with him and Jalen Brunson fairly closely when they were happening in the World
Cup because I feel sometimes like even just like on a basic like baseline drive,
baseline drift, he'll kind stand behind his defender. So to answer your
question, I don't think there's quite as much grabbing because Tyrese is willing to
playoff ball. He doesn't completely deactivate like Trey Young, but he isn't as
active moving as what Steph Curry is to be getting grabbed in that type of
way. I know you've focused on this, but in the macro doesn't seem
like there's been a big focus because their transition attack with such a bear on
offense last year on just how bad the half court offense was was. They
were consistently in the bottom ten, like even before the Tyree's injury. Now
you look at this roster and it's okay, they add Bruce Brown's craftiness,
but it still feels like they have a lot of you know, their starting
lineup's gonna have three wild card shooters essentially if you have Obi mathin and Bruce
Brown in. There are there any aside from shooting or what about the shooting?
Like, what are the swing factors into this team improving their half court
offense from last season? I think that some of it from a half court
standpoint last year was that they were not running super intricate sets like they with
a young roster. They were running more simplistic things, and they wanted to
teach those guys to play in flow game and play random and I think that
that naturally comes with some clunk, and it comes with some clunk when like
Ben isn't the highest field player, like that's still something he's learning how to
do. So if you're not running more complicated actions and then you're teaching young
guys how to play, for lack of better term, I think that that
led to some of the inefficiency on that end of the floor, and then
also like they just didn't have a lot of secondary playmakers. If the first
action didn't work, it would end up with Tyrese having to pound the ball
and pick and roll, which isn't the worst gamble. He's a very good
pick and roll creator, as we all know. But I think that Bruce
Brown will help in that regard, and that an underrated aspect of his game
is that he can be a connective passer. He can play out of pick
and roll s, and Andrew Nemarkin as well. But like, just having
more guys on the floor who are able to continue advance images and get you
to the next action, I think will help them in the half court though,
I, as you said, I do have some concerns about the spacing
and what happens if teams are shrinking in off of that. On the central
aspect of Tyrese and the initial primary pick and real action, this gets away
from some of the tactical stuff we've been talking about. But you know,
and we've already mentioned his name, so Pascal Siakam was someone that was kind
of loosely connected as a let's call him a person interest. I guess at
various points. You know, certainly we speculated about it last year, and
then there was some talk around the draft. I want to say, I'm
terrible remembering that kind of thing, But do you think the Pacers are because
that would be sort of run a little counter to what you envision this team
being is sort of gradually built and we're looking for organic growth and that type
of thing. But to go swing a move for an all NBA type of
player, you know, who fits, in my opinion like phenomenally well just
as a hypothetical, but from a team building perspective, it's kind of incongruous
with what and he's doing. Like, do you think a move like that
is what the Pacers you know, intend to do at some point, whether
it's Siakam or not. Like are they keeping the powder dry, as we
like to say it, to go, you know, make a move like
that or is that just a little too like quick fixie and you know,
risky obviously with free agency being you know, right around the corner too.
I think the way that I summarize what they did this offseason is that they're
trying to make a push for the playoffs while also maintaining flexibility to build around
Haliber in long term. And the Bruce Brown contract is as malleable as he
is as a player, So the fact that they have that team option means
that he you know, he might be included in a trade as early as
this year. That would be counter to how the Pacers typically operate When they
sign someone to a contract, they like to keep them through the first year.
They say, like, we don't sign guys to be trade assets necessarily.
But you know, I do think between Og and and Obi and paths
scal Siakam, I would think that Og would be your top priority there because
he is younger and because I truly think he might be the most positionalist defender
in the NBA, and I think he would solve a lot of things for
them that he would be the top priority. But Pascal also, like what
I said before, like I don't have as many concerns about Miles Turner taking
a step back if you're adding an all NBA caliber power forward who you know
you could make those arguments with Sabonis too, Like there wasn't a lot of
reason to take possessions out of Sabonis's hands to give them to Miles Turner.
But the difference being is so Bonus was not going to be able to help
Miles Turner defensively the same way that Pascal Siakam will and just overall on their
defense. So to have somebody who can create their own shot and create for
others at the four spot, I think would be big for the patients.
But I think it's almost more telling that there was a quote around the draft
where Chad Buchanan and I'm paraphrasing here effectively said that, like, you know,
they looked at potential opportunities to move the number seven pick for guys who
were on expiring detail the contracts. We can connect the dots there, and
that you know, without knowing if those guys were going to want to sign
an extension that's too risky for them as a small market team, which I
agree it would be very risky. And I'm not saying that they need to
do that before the first year of Tyres Haliburton's contract has even come into play.
But if you're not willing right now to bet on Tyrese Haliburton and bet
on your ability to win games by getting Pascal Siakam, I think that's somewhat
telling of where you think you are on your timeline, Like clearly, if
you thought you were closer to contention, I think you might be willing just
to take that risk and bet on those guys. And I think that a
certain point in time, that is what they're going to have to do,
Like that's the way they're going to get the second guy to play with Tyrese,
is they're going to have to take some type of risk like that.
I just don't think that they necessarily think we're that close, that we're just
like one Pascal Siakam away where they'd be willing to take a risk on like
only the second signal digit pick that they've had in like three years. The
Pacers are, I feel like, are really effective at delivering and selling their
ethos to their fan based relative to other teams, because when Grant and I
talked about this Yakam Pacers fit like a couple months ago when it first came
out, we were both fitting smitten excuse me by like the functional benefits Pacers
fans were aggressively pushing back against everything we said about just why they wouldn't do
that, and so I have to give like a tip of the cap to
the organization for really to make a good job of clearly selling their ethos and
the value of it to the fan base. I think part of it,
too, is that people like really beat against you know, like the whole
car mellowing it then he getting traded to the Knicks, things like why would
we get give up assets if we could just sign that guy? Like why
would we give up assets for o Giana Noby if we could just sign him
next summer? And I'm like, well, because you get a year of
trying to persuade him to stay here, like and maybe he's not really interested
in going to a small market team. Again, it's very risky, but
like, I do think there's some value in that and getting the experience of
playing with Tyrese and knowing, you know, I think Tyrese gets guys paid.
I truthfully do believe that. I think if you come play with tyres
Aalibert and you're gonna you're gonna play better than where you did at your last
stop. But I think that that's some of it is. I think a
lot of fans are like, why would we give something up if we could
just pitch him in free agency next year. Yeah, I would just say
when's the last time the Pacers signed? And O g n obre past David
West. I wanted to ask you about Ben Shepherd because I'm basically a child
and all it takes is one play, especially for a player I know minimally
about, since I don't cover the draft, for me to become enamored with
them, And I wasn't a Ben Shepherd guy before the draft, even coming
out of the draft. Then there was a play in summer League where he's
battling I know, Chet Hogan's not the strongest dude, but he's he's freaking
huge, and you have Ben Sheppard just battling with him and then comes and
jumps the pass and takes it away from him. So I'm officially a Ben
Shepherd believer. Do you have any initial impressions on on Ben Shepherd? Is
there even like a modicom of a chance that he does anything for a team
that's like kind of set on guards right now? I like Ben Shepherd.
I mean, I think it's interesting. Chappy Canon said the first thing that
Rick asks whenever they are evaluating draft prospects is can't he shoot? And I
do believe that Ben Shephard can shoot and in a variety of context, whether
it's you know, backpedaling out to the corner, shooting off a screen,
shooting in transition. I think that that matters to the way that the Pacers
want to play. That being said, I don't really see a clear path
to him cracking the rotation unless you're moving both of TJ McConnell and Buddy Healed,
like because I just don't really know where the spot's going to automatically come
from. And then that does kind of create an interesting question from like a
draft strategy standpoint that Ben kind of projects. I do think he needs to
get stronger to help his finishing and to help he had good moments defensively in
Summer League, but it's like his contest wouldn't really do that much because he's
getting pushed under the rim Like he did what you're saying, like he swammed
the post, like he battled, but like just his overall on ball defense,
he would kind of get pushed under the rim s. So like there
is a strength element to him, but like he kind of projects as this
plug and play type player. But if there isn't an opportunity for him to
play, then does it make more sense for you to have drafted somebody who
maybe needs more development and therefore, if they do need to stay with the
Maddie's for the year, there could be more like potentially untapped upside from that
pick. Like that's kind of interesting with the way that the Pacers have been
making draft picks, especially with what just happened with Christy Arte. There's a
lot of reasons why Chris isn't playing for the Pacers anymore, but like he
looked like, you know, promising as a rookie and now they just traded
him for two seconds, similar to what the Knicks did with Obie Toppin.
So I'm not saying that that's what's necessarily going to happen with Ben. I
like Ben, I just don't see a clear path at least as a rookie
for him getting into the rotation unless there's injuries or like a couple of trades.
Is cookie cutter question time, as Dan likes to say, But this
is not a cookie cutter question. This is a great question that Dan has
prepared here. And you've been as as is the case at this time of
year, you know, doing the circuit of you know various interviews and podcasts
and that kind of thing, and have had the time talk about the Pacers
at great length and have written about them at great length for a long time.
What is there anything that we didn't ask you or that you have not
been asked at all or have rarely been asked that you think is a really
whether it's like a pivot point for the season, or something really interesting to
you that just maybe the normal fan doesn't know about the Pacers or what should
we be watching for this year that we have not covered today and that maybe
you haven't gotten to talk about as much as you'd like to. And I
think maybe today the only player that we didn't really touch on is maybe aaron
N Smith. And he really did establish himself. I mean, he plays
really freaking hard, like that's the one thing that you can always count on
from him. And I commend him for the fact that he was kind of
the unsung hero that kind of turned their season when he did step into being
a starting four. That's not what I would have projected from him last summer.
If you had asked me what role will aaron Nie Smith have? That's
not what I would have said. But now it's like you kind of look
at the depth chart and it's again like the whole TJ McConnell thing, Like,
it feels like the spot in that second unit is either going to be
TJ's or Aaron's. Going from being a starter to potentially, you know,
either not being on the rotation or being on the fringe is kind of an
underdiscussed thing because you know, they need, I think critically, to be
at least a top twenty defense if they want to get into the playoffs or
be competitive in the play and tournament. And they can build lineups where it's
like, oh wow, like that's an intriguing lineup. What if they play
Nemhard and Nie Smith and Bruce Brown and Jaris Walker and Miles Turner all at
the same time. But it's like, how are they getting to that lineup
with how many rotation players they have? So yeah, I mean, I
think that maybe people didn't necessarily notice Aaron's kind of a foul machine. He
struggles to finish some of his defensive possessions without fouling. But I do think
he had a nice season with the Pacers, and it feels like he isn't
necessarily going to get worse. It's just that there's not necessarily going to be
the same opportunity for him as there was a year ago. I still get
nervous every time he takes more than like two dribbles, especially if he's been
doing it with his left hand generally a little bit dicey. So we've talked
a lot about who's going to play, and it feels like there's probably eight
or nine locks for the ten man rotation. How do you sort of see
just and it could be shorter than a ten rotation, maybe they branch out
beyond ten men dury a normal night, but like, what would the ten
man rotation and your estimation be for this team? Yeah, I mean my
best guest for the starters Tyres and Miles or locks. Ben kind of indicated
that on a secondary broadcast with Stephen A. Smith that he expects to be
the starting three, which he was already starting the last ten games the last
year. So I don't think that would exactly be a shock. I think
it'll be a camp battle between Obie Toppen and Jarress Walker, and then because
of how they handled Ben last year, it wouldn't surprise me if they bring
Jariss off the bench as a rookie and the nod goes to Obi Toppin and
then I don't think you're paying Bruce Brown twenty two and a half million dollars
to come off the bench, So I think he'll be the last starter there,
and then the reserves. I think you can probably look at Buddy as
sixth man Andrew and then a choice between TJ and Aaron N. Smith and
then Jarress Walker backup four he needs to be playing, and then you know
rotation Carol still at the five. I would probably lean toward Jalen right now,
but I don't know where the Pacers will land on that after training camp.
We'll have to wait and see. Yeah, that's interest. We haven't
really mentioned Isaiah Jackson like at all. It's just he's just a victim of
the squeeze. It seems like upfront or are there going to be matchups where
maybe he does make more sense than you know, whoever it is Smith or
Walker or whoever. Yeah, I mean, I think he pairs well with
Andrew Nemoard, Like I said, like, I think they were one of
the better lab combinations in the NBA last year and they didn't even play that
many minutes together. But my enduring question with Isaiah continues to be is he
a small ball five or is he a five who is small because he doesn't
do that many small ball five things. He's just kind of like an undersized
traditional five. And I am in year two and I still don't know what
his ideal pick and roll coverage is. Like Theoretically, he moves really well
and can cover a ton of ground, so you think it's going to be
switching, but he tends to want to stand up, he doesn't always take
the best angles. Is dry coverage still has a long way to go.
Like part of me thinks it's Blitz because he can be more proactive and force
negative dribbles and then give himself time to get back, and he does cover
ground so well, but they don't necessarily have the roster to accommodate Pa playing
Blitz because they don't have a lot of length, or at least they didn't
last year. So like, defensively, their numbers are not good with him
out there as solo five and rebounding wise, I do think he made a
few strides there during Summer League, especially on the offensive glass, but like,
he's just still a question mark for me, and I'm not sure he
should be as much of a question mark entering into his third season. So
that's kind of where I land, given that the seems like the starters are
fairly well established. Do you envision the closing lineup obviously accounting for like sometimes
matchups, just are you going to call for different things? Do you envision
the closing lineup on most nights differing from the starting lineup, and if so,
you know who's in and who's out. I think it do. I
think it will, And I think that could be telling because last year I
think their most used closing lineup was the same as the starters, the starting
lineup with Aaron at the four, and then their other most used one was
Tyrese, Buddy Miles, with both rookies being Ben and Andrew. So I
think it might depend like are you in crunch time and you're up by six
or you're down by six, But I would anticipate that both of them will
include Tyrese, Buddy and Miles and then Bruce Brown, and I won't be
surprised if Bruce Brown is out there at the four and they're playing smaller,
just because I don't know what to project from Obi toppin defensively quite yet and
expecting to throw Jaris out there as a rookie feels like a lot. So
like, if you're up by six and you're trying to maintain a lead,
I could see them playing a lineup of like Tyrese, Ben, Buddy,
Bruce Miles. If you're down by six and you need to get stops,
I could see it being you know, Tyrese, Andrew, maybe aaron N
Smith, Bruce Miles if you really need to get stops. Otherwise, I
bet that Buddy will be in the starting lineup or in the closing lineup,
which means you're probably playing smaller to accomplish doing that. Is there a weirdo,
quirky wonky lineup that you would like to see them try? Yeah,
give me all the defense, give me the best defense at every position,
or if Tyrese is still going to be out there, then give me some
combination of Tyres and Miles, and then pick between Bruce and Jariss and Andrew
and aaron Nie Smith and just put as many defenders out there so that we
can see a better product than what we've seen in the last two years for
this team. I mean, I I just put Tyrese out there with four
defenders because I figure he can if somebody's going to generate shots for guys that
can't do it themselves, I would just trust him to do it, and
then you cover up for him on the on defense. What you always have
the weirdest ones? Dan, what's yours? How small is your lineup?
It's small? So I tried to find a lineup where Jarress Walker was at
the five super charge the defense. So I settled on because TJ mcconnells just
can't play off the ball, so I couldn't really put him in this lineup.
I have Bruce Brown, Aaronie Smith, Jarress Walker, Tyrese Halibert is
just gonna be out there because Tyrres Halibert and then Andrew nem Hard. I
feel like that's pretty tame by my lineup standards. Yeah, But the thing
is is, I don't think it's outside of the realm of possibility that Jaris
will play minutes at the five, because I think offensively, like a lot
of his skill set tracks to being a five, and they played him at
the five minutes in Summer League, So like, I don't think it's that
outlandish. The real supercharge defense on either be like just subout Haliburton for McConnell.
I don't know what that torpedoes. You're spacing an offense, but that
was Supercharger defense. It's like a seventy five offensive rating team. Right there
we go. You want to do the over under This is a great over
underline. It made me feel really smart because when I did my preseason predictions,
I was close to this. Caitlyn, it's thirty eight and a half.
That is the Pacers. I guess the Vegas line, Dan, this
is where I'm not sure where it came from exactly. We're not sponsored by
them, so I don't Yeah, we're not gonna shout out anything anything.
How do you feel about that number? And uh, well, if you
want to make an exact record prediction, feel free. But I always hate
doing that, so I'm not going to ask you to do that unless you
want to. Yeah. So, I mean I underestimated them last year badly,
Like I assumed that they would move Buddy and Miles before the trade deadline,
so I kind of baked that into how much I underestimated them, But
I was still wrong regardless. Machine Yeah, I know, and now I
feel like I might be overestimating them a little bit. But in the games
of Miles Turner and Tyres were both available, they played at a forty four
win rate, and they had a slightly negative net rating, which was almost
identical to the Miami Heats last year. So I think the Pacers are going
to the NBA Finals next year. But yeah, I'm just kidding, but
I would take the over. I think that last year, when those guys
were available, they had already shown that they were a little bit better than
what their record ended up being by the time they had pivoted to development mode.
And I do think that Bruce Brown's going to help them. I do
think that Jared's Walker will help them to a degree based on how poor their
defense was last year. So I'll take the over. This feels and I
haven't settled on hours yet because we haven't done the conference pods, but this
feels very last year Kingsey to me. And I've said this about the Orlando
Magic line in too, where I see thirty eight and a half, I'm
kind of like, I don't know, that feels too low, and if
it was like the Magic feels even lower to me. But I'm looking at
it right now and I'm just like, that feels that feels low. That's
my initial, just like impressions of the thirty eight and where did you land
with it? Grant? I, this is just you know, preliminary.
Haven't done any deep dives. I think like thirty nine felt about right to
me because I think, what did they I think they played, Oh this
is again the full season, and it's just based on their differential. Last
year they were like a thirty one ish win team, you know, based
on their net rating, and I think they won thirty five. Is that
right? That could be off by a couple but so I'm kind of pricing
that and like, I think they'll get a lot better, but I'm assuming
they're starting from a lower baseline just based on the differential as opposed to the
record last year. So that's how I'm That's how I'm sort of of a
justifying going just slightly over see. I look at it as like, oh,
thirty five wins, they just need four more. That's just that's whatever
one in ten or one in nine and when Haliburton missed that stretch, So
there you go, Caitlin, do you think the wide openness of the East
benefits or hurts them in that regard, because I think if you really go
through it, because of what's going on with Damian Lillard and James Harden right
now, maybe you want to price in and say, Okay, we know
that Dame is going to go to Miami, So then there's like maybe four
teams that I'm prepared to say if Dame's in Miami are better than like every
other team with Boston, Miami, Cleveland, and Milwaukee. And then after
that, I'm like, if you told me, I wouldn't predict it,
But if you told me the Pacers were better than the Knicks and the Nets
and the Hawks, like that wouldn't surprise me. But it could also go
the other way where it's like, oh, did the Hornets just like sort
of jump the pay did the magic jump the Pacers? So do you think
the wide openness benefits them in like sort of that regard or could it potentially
hurt them more? I mean I think it. I think it if it's
them, And just like health in general is a very boring topic to talk
about, but like when you just compare them to the bowls, like the
Bowls have a very sustainable defense. But their top guys all were very healthy
last year. I think the fewest games any of their top three, including
if you include Patrick in there too, like they all played seventy five or
more games, and they still are only like one game over five hundred versus
the Pacers. Tyree's played like fifty six, Miles missed a number. Like
I said, when they were both available, they were playing at a forty
four win rate. So obviously the East changes, but I don't think that
I would put them in and solidly a playoff spot right now. But I
think that they could make it into the play in tournament. And I think
that they're also a hard team to play with, Like Jannis touched on this
when they played the Pacers, and we're like, when you have to go
play at that pace for an entire game, like that's something that's hard to
do to get up to do, especially with the way that they run off
of make. So I think that can be hard to deal with in the
regular season. We'll see how how it translates in a in tournament situation or
if they were to get into the playoffs out of the play and tournament.
But I'm I'm pegging them in the seven to ten range is where I see
it playing out a meaning we missed about this team of these thinks that leads
to be discussed like strong Jordan Wara takes naming one more lines. I mean,
Jordan Wara wasn't bad for them last year. I did watch like one
specific play that they ran with them was almost money all the time because I
don't understand why defenders defended it the way that they did. But apparently he's
trying to drop weight so that you can play more positions, So we'll see,
Kaylor, are you just able to tell our listeners once more where they
can find you and all the fantastic work that you're putting out right? So
my Twitter handles at C two Underscore Cooper. If you go there, there's
a link to the Patreon that's patreon dot com slash basketball. So she wrote
where you can find all my work. A fair amount of it is unlocked.
So if you just want to do like get to know me and see
what type of work I get to do, I courage you go over there,
read it, check it out, and then if you want to become
a patren, I of course would be happy to have you whoops my computer
and the links to those will also be in the pod and YouTube descriptions,
and just just pay for it. Enough with the freeze or just go pay
for it Grant. Do you want to take us? Do you want to
take us out? I would love to thank you Caitlyn so much, really
appreciate you. Coming on. Everybody, please, as Dan said, follow
Caitlin, subscribe, join Patreon, just consume everything she does, especially if
you're interesting, if you're interested in the Pacers at all, and you're not
all over what Caitlin is producing. I I'd like to understand how that's possible.
But as an as guys that cover the NBA from a national perspective,
still invaluable work. Speaking of you can follow us at GT Underscore, Hughes
at Dan's Valley, at Hardwood Knox, rate Review, subscribe, tell your
friends and enemies do all that stuff so we can grow and have more great
guests like Caitlyn. And we will close, as always with a shout out
to the one and only Frank Milatina and an apology to caret out