What is kraklacin fellow thermonuclear a efforts. I am a Dan Valley coming at
you as always with my certified fantabulous co host, mister Grant Hughes. We
are on to our Eastern Conference Optimism Index, where Grant and I will talk
about one thing, development player, whatever reason, why we have liked watching
this team, why we're higher on their future for some reason, even if
they're not playing too well. Just trying to shine some bright bright light on
some brighter spots so far this season. Go check out the Western Conference edition.
Grant spearheaded that one. It was fantastic as as I expected it to
be, and all the usual reminders. Please remember to sub YouTube, spot,
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love us back, follow us on the socials. The links to those are
in the podcast and YouTube descriptions as well as on your screen if you're watching
join our discord. The link to that is in the podcast and YouTube description
description. Great discussions always happening over there. That's also how you can get
in mail bag questions or sometimes talk with Grant and myself. I believe that's
it, so Grant, how the heck are you doing. I'm doing very
well. I'm excited to take a back seat to you as you lead most
of the discussion on the East. And I'm also glad your voice is back
so that you're up for that task, because you know, everybody wants to
hear those golden pipes. Apparently some of the people liked the first podcast we
did, was it Piece or Panic for the West? I think, or
was it the East. My voice was apparently struggling to the point where people
liked it though. But then that second podcast we recorded back to back and
went off the rails and we got a little lucky where we didn't do our
normal two podcast session this week because of our schedules. So we're recording this
these stats any numbers I know will be accurate heading into games on Wednesday.
There's no games on Thursday. This will go up on Friday, so it'll
all still be germane. But it probably helped me a little bit that we
weren't talking for four hours this time, so my voice is a little bit
a little bit fressure as we get into the Eastern conference. Also, I
didn't have to talk as much because you had the West that's true. So
do we want to start things off? I think so. And I'm in
charge of the alphabet this time, so I'm feeling the pressure. So but
this is always easy because you know, when we start the alphabet, it
is a letter A. That's the that's what you come here to learn on
hardwood, Knox. So let's tell me Dan about the Atlanta Hawks. What's
got your attention there? In a positive way? The Jalen Johnson breakout still
has my attention. We've talked about him sufficiently enough that it's kind of like,
oh, are we really going to talk about this dude again? So
I tried to approach it from a different way and just I'm looking at his
entire package and I don't expect him to nail more than forty percent of his
threes all season, but defenses are starting to treat him as more of a
threat. They're closing out harder when he's catching it, and that will erase
some of his wide open triples. But he counters that with just like a
tough to plan for speed attacking those closeouts, and he's keeping defenders off balance.
He has some real on ball acceleration. He's busted out a nifty mix
of floaters and fades, and he's a pretty reliable finisher around the hoop when
he gets all the way to the basket. And I think a big element
of why the Hawks offense is I mean, they were efficient last year,
they're fast as hell this year. Their second and average possession time right now,
and they're first off opponent misshots. And that's in part because you have
so many different guys aside from a Tree Young or Dejontey Murray who can just
push off a rebound, and Jalen Johnson has been one of them. I've
really also enjoyed his defense. He does he makes mistakes, but like Atlanta
can tether him to a big forward and say just stay on him, and
they're asking him to fight through these screens, but he also just has the
chops to hang in space. He had some really good moments against shake Yil
just Alexander, against Tyrese Maxi. I think he's been a really good help
side rim protector this year. No other Hawks rotation players actually surrendering a lower
clip at the basket, which is pretty gnarly when you consider they have cappella
and a kungu right there and the big one. I don't know if I
expect this to sustain, but the Hawks' is half court defense improves by twenty
points per one hundred plays with him on the court. That's the best mark
among anyone who has logged at least two hundred and twenty five minutes. And
I'll frame it this way. If you have any other thoughts on Jalen Johnson,
please share them. But like he's creating this interesting dilemma where the Hawks
just got off one expensive forward. He's extension eligible after this year, and
the way he's playing right now is gonna be worth quite a bit of money.
So that's where I was gonna go. Actually, as I agree,
I think he's been one of the most you know, I don't know if
it's a surprise, but like pleasant players, you know, young among young
guys, certainly for this season. And I echo everything you said about,
like I think, you know, the the athleticism, the defensive impact,
the help stuff. That's all I think if you look at the numbers,
what makes him you know, different or better than guys like Collins who was
there before, and even DeAndre Hunter now and to a lesser extent, aj
Griffin not quite the same player types exactly, but if we're talking about Hawk's
big wings and forwards, yeah, you have to draw some comparisons. Like
he I think he makes quicker decisions with the ball just generally speaking, he's
not tasked with a bunch of playmaking. But you know, hunter Is has
never been a good passer, has always been a guy that if he puts
it on the floor, like the expected outcome of the possession just gets way
worse. He's not going to set a lot of guys up. Johnson moves
the ball more quickly and intuitively, and I think that also ties to his
instincts are just good defensively, Like he's disruptive. Like his block rates have
always been high. He's above the eightieth percentile. This year, he's his
steel rate looks not as impressive. He's you know, one point four percent
is in the fifty first percentile, but last year he was at one point
five percent at the same position, that's the eighty first percentile. So,
like, he's a disruptive defender because he kind of processes pretty quickly and has
the athleticism to get there and make stuff happen. And then you see that
on the offensive end too. And that's why I think, like when it
comes time to pay up, you have to treat him. You know,
the Hawks were, you know, in the right I think at the time
to pay John Collins what they did. But you've got to maybe pay this
guy more just because of he's more versatile already, he's he can shoot it
like he's he's kind of like a lot of the calling stuff, except maybe
a little more on ball skill potentially, And so you've got to pay him.
And then it's suddenly like, well, we've already earmarked a kong Wu,
We've paid him to succeed Capella. And now it's like, well do
we talk about DeAndre Hunter moving? What? What? Because the Hawks do
not pay the tax. We know that, like all their moves are based
on avoiding that. So there may be a forced decision kind of in a
good way, I guess, because you're happy that Johnson has developed like this,
but you wonder what the fallout will be through the rest of the rotation
with guys like Hunter that I think, in hindsight, probably wasn't the right
decision to treat him like someone that is a cornerstone, and Johnson looks more
like that type of player. I think just because of positional scarcity, Capella
will be the one that would fall by the wayside. I will just to
the money point because of all he does defensively, if the three point and
the fact that he's John Calls had trouble contributing offensively within this roster context.
So Jalen Johnson does different things and just clearly fits as more of a play
like in the play finisher reps that are available to him, he's doing more
with them. If he continues to hit threes at anywhere near this clip,
you're probably looking at a twenty five million dollars a year player. I would
think. So, I mean, like, you know, he he's averaging
a block and a steal, he's two and a half assists these more assistant
turnovers, which is like, you know, not necessarily the highest bar,
but given his usage, it's impressive. I just I just think, yeah,
I I so. Then you've also we didn't even talk about Sidik Bay
yet, and the reason he was you know, not let go but the
Pistons moved on is I think that the thought was that they didn't want to
pay him his next contract, and so Sidik Bay is gonna be up for
I guess he'll be restricted. But that's another one, like, would you
just be better off with Bay and Johnson and move on from basically every other
winging forward on this roster. That's that's a totally realistic possibility. But you're
gonna have to cut some salary someplace if you pay those guys' market rates.
The bright spot that's causing a dilemma that they were gonna enter anyway, frankly,
because they don't want to pay the tax and you're paying Murray and Trey
as it is. Yeah, all right, that'll cover the Atlanta Hawks,
Boston Celtics. Nothing great going on there. I can't imagine you were able
to find a positive to focus on forever Charlotte Horneton overtime. So it's doom
and gloom, and this is the most overrated team in an NBA history.
No, So look, you know, I was a Celtic skeptic, more
so before the Drew Holiday trade. I thought they just conceded too much defensive
versatility and playmaking. Even after Drew Holiday, I questioned whether they would have
the same versatility on defense. You worry about the health stuff with Christops,
and then there's still there's probably still a playmaking deficit, but the amount of
space they're able to generate, and like they're driving kicks, spacey driving kicks
is what I called them. I still would to argue they underutilize them.
Their drives per game are down from last year. I think a lot of
that probably just has to do with some absurd shot making from the perimeter and
leaning on it perhaps too much. But when you get going downhill as Boston
this year, like there's real ball movement and there's real great opportunities, and
just having Chris stops has broken defenses a lot of the times because whether he's
camped out on the wing, above the break in the corner, so many
teams don't really understand like, oh, is he gonna duck in baseline?
How do we account for that? Or how do you just defend a pick
and pop or someone who's camped out on the three point line and can get
a shot off over anyone and is hitting his looks so efficiently. And then
you add the element of oh, he's still able to punish mismatches. That's
huge. But like the driving kick game over the past, like a little
bit over a week, the Celtics have an eleven point three assists rate on
their drives that's the fifth highest. It's about the fifth highest in the league,
and they have a top five pass rate on drives during this span.
When you watch it, it just works. And so my point here is
there's a lot to just appreciate about Boston, which right now Milwaukee is is
perking up. But Boston has clearly been and by and large always had the
ceiling of they could be the best team on offense and defense in the league.
And probably we're the only team we could say that. About the fact
that they can attack in this way in the half court, I think will
give them a variance that serves them well once you get to the playoffs.
I just feel like it gives them an It was something they could always do,
but like this spacing is next level from them, and I think it
gives them another way to go about winning, and in some to some degree,
you should offset what I still feel like is a team that is at
a play making deficit. Yeah, yeah, no, I did you give
the Porzingis post up numbers specifically? I was looking him up while you're talking.
Sorry if I so. No, he's been killing it. But it's
like, so that's like the if you were skeptical about Boston, I guess
other than the depth and like some of the health stuff, one of the
things you might have cited was well, like can't you just get away with
switching and then leaving small guys on porzingis because forever you know, Rick Carlisle,
I think famously an oppressor, was confronted with why don't you post up
porzingis more in Dallas and he said he cited the points per play on post
ups and basically it was like, because we don't score or when we do
that, and it's a dumb thing to do. Uh, And now the
numbers are unbelievable. So one point five to six points per play when porzingis
posts up, which is the in the one hundredths percentile, And it's not
a small sign. Yeah, it's pretty high. It would be hard to
be higher. I don't know how you would do that. And he's doing
that on you know, fifteen ish percent of his touches or post up touches.
The crazy like he's getting fat. He's drawing shooting fouls on a quarter
of his post ups, which is just like that's free money and he's a
good free throw shooter. And so if you're worried about the playmaking in Boston
and the offense stagnating, to have this as a okay, nothing worked,
let's throw it in there and based on the numbers so far, we're gonna
score a point and a half just by throwing it into the post. To
Porzingis, like that, you know, that doesn't necessary directly address the fact
that, you know, there's not a lot of great passers on this team
and things can get stagnant. But that's a pretty sweet, you know,
button that you get to push if an offensive possession is not working well.
So, yeah, I think and unexpected that's the main thing, is like
you can't have foreseen Porzingis's post up game being like the key to a potentially
you know, certainly top five, but maybe number one offense in the league.
That's kind of wild. Yeah, And it's like he was as I
realized that my video is off. Now this is an apology to listeners on
YouTube. We've been having issues with that and I don't know why. Yeah,
he he did a lot of this stuff last year. Was just could
this sustain in where he is in a system where he's not the primary option
necessarily on a better team, And it was just he had a career year,
and so you're always going to be inherently skeptical, but totally all right,
that was quick because basically everything about Boston's been good. Howbout the Brooklyn
net stand they're next in the alphabet, They're not on Boston's level, but
some positives to pick out here. Yeah, So my thing is an emergent
supporting cast for them, specifically looking at like what that's done for their offense,
because we know that and part of this just might be health related.
Their defense is not as good as we've expected. They're eleventh in points score
per possession on offense, which is a really big deal because like McHale Bridges,
Spencer Dinwidie, Cam Johnson, they've not been off to the best starts
this like most efficient starts anyway this year. So you have a guy like
Cam Thomas, and I actually saw he's been out dealing with that ankle spray,
and I think and I saw some conversations start and float around that giving
him such agency over the offense has actually hurt mckal bridges. I could see
that a little bit. But like mcal Bridge is shooting percentages are Elon's worse
with cam Thomas off the floor, and so when you have Cam Thomas,
yes, he's still a little too mid range dependent. But like among the
sixty five players who have finished at least one hundred drives this year, only
Joell Ebiid is scoring more, is yielding more points per drive, Like that's
a big deal. He's exploring different levels of the middle, is how I
would phrase it. Then Lonnie Walker the fourth might have been the best minimum
signing of the summer. He's a sixth Man of the Year candidate. He's
hitting his shots. Specifically, his fifty four point seven effective field goal percentage
on pull up pull up jumpers ranks eighth among anyone who is attempted as many
of those those attempts. And so the only players in front of a Dianner
Fox, Luca, Tim Hardaway, Junior Tyres Halibert and Shake Gilges, Alexander
Now Chris Middleton shout out to him and de Jonte Murray and then look Jorny
Finney Smith. Forty five plus percent from three is big. After shooting sub
thirty percent on drives last year, he's up to over fifty percent. Now,
it's not a huge part of his game, but the fact that he
can now do that and a lot of it has to do Oh there's there
is open space in Brooklyn when they have either none of Simmons or Claxton on
the floor or just one of them. And Simmons has been out and Claxon's
back, so that's been Stuff's been pretty open for him. Those guys are
not the driving force necessarily behind what Brooklyn is doing on offense, though I
think you could argue Cam Thomas and Lonnie Walker might be. They're helping the
Nets sustain what's been a less than optimal start from from their most their three
most important players or a few of their most important players. Yeah, you
know what's interesting. The defense side has just been kind of confounding to me,
just based on the personnel, and you went through some of the reasons
why maybe it's underperformed this and I didn't know this. I was just looking
through some stats here. So last year, granted, like the Nets were
kind of two different teams last season, but they were number two in terms
of suppressing opponent three point at ten frequency, which we care more about than
accuracy. Obviously, because phantom defense can make the accuracy numbers go one way
or the other. Opponents took thirty three percent of their shots from deep last
year. They're up to forty percent of those shots now and that ranks twenty
seventh. And basically what looks like has happened is the nets have kind of
flipped in terms of they don't allow a lot of attempts at the rim.
Their top ten there and last year they were twenty fifth. So they've basically
exchanged a bunch, you know, walling off the rim for giving up a
lot of threes, and I think maybe that just means you're going to have
more variants generally speaking. So I still think the defense can get better,
and I think, you know, offensively, I'm not sure how great it
is to have Cam Thomas matter this much, because he feels to me like,
you know, don't do it, don't say you know, I'm gonna
say six, man, I know, I thought you were gonna say microwave
score, which I feel like is an insult. How deep his his armory
is. I think he might be like one of the most talented scores in
the NBA full stop. I just don't know if he's going to do enough
else to justify like, I don't think the bridges, like detracting from bridges
is a real issue, and you give a stat that you know kind of
corroborates that. But I just wonder how great it is if if Thomas is
in your starting unit and is doing you know, if he matters that much.
I'm not I'm not sure if there's a precedent for that being optimal,
but certainly a positive so far because he's been one of the before he got
hurt. He was one of the most fun players to watch in the league
and will be again once he's back. Thank you to everyone who bore with
us through I guess was it part of the Celtics. I was off screen
and most of the nets. I'm back on screen using my FaceTime camera because
my webcam, my four K webcam barely just is not working. Don't you
just love it? So thanks everyone who bore with us through my blank screen.
That's all right. I just ignored it because I believe it throw you
off a little bit, or you're not looking at the screen enough. Because
sometimes when people disappear on me, it throws me off while I'm trying to
talk it is weird. I was concerned if I was going to pick up
on when you were ready to stop talking about the Nets, but powering through.
The Charlotte Hornets are next. They're four and nine and they are minus
eight point one net rating. Dan, tell me what's good about the Charlotte
Hornets. We can just move on. No, uh, there's actually I
think we can frame it this way. People were too quick to judge the
Brandon Miller pick as a basketball like value proposition, and I did that.
Yeah, I mean we both did it. But by the people i'd be
the Hardwood Knox jackasses, Scoot and him are going to be tied together.
Maybe for the rest of their career. We're going to debate who's better,
who's more valuable, who should have been drafted by the Hornets Specifically, I
think Miller right now is proving why we play the games, and part of
that is Goot Henderson is not playing the game at the moment. But even
when you look at Brandon Miller the counting stats, you don't fall in love
with them. The shooting splits aren't great, but I appreciate the process and
the he looks very plug and play off the ball. He's already, he's
already cutting. He will run the floor in transition, which makes sense because
LaMelo ball exists. He's also but he's hitting like forty eight plus percent of
his pull up twos right now, and so the jumper looks good. I
would expect that to come around. Can he ever create consistent separation and get
to the basket in these frum scratch situations, I do not know, But
he also doesn't need to do that to be an All star level player,
if not better than that. I think I've been most impressed though, with
his defense. They are putting him on a bunch of tough assignments and the
results aren't always good because Charlotte's defense is really bad this year. But the
fact that you could put him on point of attack guards with his size,
it has worked like it's John Hollinger wrote about this at the Athletic. It
has forced the ball out of their hands unless you're name Jordan Poole, who
just took shots anyway against him. And he's also just like as a helper,
just as someone who's sticking with bodies. He's contested about as many looks
at the rim as PJ. Washington like, that's a big deal. And
I know the Hornets are leading a lot on Mark Williams right now, who
doesn't look as good in your two. I think in part because of how
much responsibility he's bearing on the defensive end. It feels like he's really impacted
his offense to have a prospect like this at Miller to where it's three an
elite D and more and his three hasn't even come along yet. Yeah,
is a big freaking deal. That's the thing. Like I think he's a
little, I mean, maybe a lot too mid range heavy still, but
he's he's an accurate mid range shooter, so the damage there is kind of
mitigated. I wish you would shoot more threes, but the defense is legit.
And especially on a team where maybe you don't want LaMelo Ball having to
handle you know, much, since his offensive playmaking loads so big, you
know, a guy like Miller really matters. I kind of think, you
know, it is going to be hard to avoid the Scoot Miller comparison basically
forever. I think people that thought that believed in Miller are kind of looking
you know, right to some extent now. But also people that were skeptical
of him can point to a lot of stuff, which is just to say,
do you feel like the rap on him was he's going to be a
good NBA player and like probably a good starter, but nobody was seeing,
you know, true superstar upside, which is kind of the problem if you're
picking a guy second. But like again, Scoot hasn't played, and when
he did play, he didn't look very good at all. So you know,
upsides all great, But if Miller is a useful contributor now and just
projects to be nothing less than that going forward, you know, there's worse
things than having a rookie that you can put on the other team's best offensive
player and you can trust to make shots Like that's you know, even if
the ceiling may be still is not as high as you'd want it to be.
I don't understand why the default comparison for players of this body type and
who people decide can't be superstars as always. I guess, I guess,
did you say the name yet? What is it? Middleton? No?
I was gonna say Paul George. Paul George is better. That's my point
is, like, if the number two pick turns out to be Paul George
or Chris Middleton. I thought that as an absolute victory. That's a home
run. Yeah, that's great. Like, how many players over the last
fifteen years are better than Paul George Like year to year, I mean,
he's always the top twenty guy and has been what he finished third in the
MVP, you know when he was with OKC, Like, yeah, and
you take Paul Georgia too, right, I just don't understand why it feels
just like it's not everybody, but when the comp is, oh, it's
this, it's this kind of elite wing who's not actually elite, and we're
so we're just gonna say they can't be a superstar. His best case scenario
is Paul George. I'm like, his best case scenario is Paul George's head
to the Hall of Fame. Right, He's definitely in Like he's been one
of the best all around basketball players of our lifetime. Basically, really quickly,
you did mention Scoot I saw I caught the Blazers a good chunk of
the Blazers Suns game on Tuesday night, having Malcolm Brogden back because we dumped
all over the Blazers offense during the optim A stick portion of their podcast.
Just not having an organizer, it just it looked so much better, oh,
just having him there. And so I'm just curious if this team gets
a little friskier. Now, that was not related to the Hornets, No,
Brandon Miller kind of sort of but not really kind of. So what
you got there was like two degrees of separation. Let's separate from the Charlotte
Hornets and moved to the Chicago Bulls. Five and ten, minus four point
eight in net rating. Let's get positive. This team was surprisingly easy to
come up with something positive because it feels like there's really only one thing to
go with, and that's the defense. Still knows how to force turnovers.
They are second in opponent turnover rate right now, only the Magic are in
front of them, which, holy hell Magic. They have the best defense
in the league. By the way, did you know that had updated after
I saw they were top five a couple days ago and I did a double
take then, so it's a triple take now there. The Bulls lead the
league in turnovers forced when defending and transition, and they are second behind only
the Oklahoma City Thunder, which just makes so much sense when you like read
who the team is inforcing turnovers on pick and rolls. It starts on the
perimeter, it ends on the perimeter. For them, they get incredible,
incredible ball and passing lane pressure from both Javon Carter and Alex Caruso, and
they just have a smattering of peskiness. I called it with Tory craig Io
de Summu and even doubt here Patrick Williams has had his his defensive highs.
I do get a little annoyed that they don't parlavies turnovers into transition opportunities.
They're just so I know they don't necessarily have the personnel when it's Vuch and
Derozen, but it's you're forcing turnovers be better than twenty fifth and pace.
However, they're still playing faster, a lot faster in those situations than their
overall offense, and they are eighth in offensive efficiency after forcing a turnover.
And so this is why the forcing the turnovers is important from a defensive perspective.
It's driving what is a very weak offense overall. For the third year
running with zach Levine, Demarta Rosenen, nicole I Vucevic as you'r as your
headliners there, I don't think we could overstate how important this is. It
really just I don't It doesn't matter in the context of should they keep this
team together? But forcing turnovers are mazifake with Chicago. That's part of the
reason why you could stomach watching them. But I look, I think it's
a bright spot. These are the players who are always selling out. Specifically,
when you look at Carter and Caruso, two of sort of the driving
forces from their their top down defense, and even Patrick Williams, that's like
a good baseline to where if you could kind of if they had more assets
or just were more creative, you could see the bones of well, maybe
we're a trade or two away from being a sensible, sensibly built team.
Yeah, And I think to me, one of the other positives is going
the other way, which I think probably you'd bet on a tear down.
Obviously with the Levigne stuff kind of you know, boiling right now, someone
like carus I think they're gonna get a pretty good return for like, you
know, up to four guys that they might think about trading, like Lavin
will bring back plenty. Caruso is playing some of the best basketball of his
career. He's making half of his threes. I think I saw Stati's on
the longest streak of double digit scoring nights of his career, which isn't long,
but like, if you're getting any offense from him two games, I
think it was like eight or something. But you'll get something for him,
you might. I think you should get a first for Alex Caruso, like
a decent one. Javon Carter's shooting over forty percent from three, You'll get
something for him. I don't know what you get for DeRozan, but he's
expiring, and you know, assuming he's gonna make mid Rangers at some point
again this year, someone will want him. Like the positive to me in
addition to like, the turnovers are crazy, and that's a huge plus.
But when you trade a couple of the guys that are causing those turnovers,
you're still going to get a good return, and this rebuild can kind of
you know, we're not that far away from talking about how the Bulls have
like a pretty sweet collection of assets to start over with. I think that's
pretty flattering. Yeah, right, you know, you should get a couple.
I think they should meet like four or five first pretty easily if they
trade me. I don't know the zach Colvine stuff. I feel like this
happens a lot where what's being reported in the speculation matches up with what they
actually get. But if you had to take the over under on two point
five first round picks or prospect equivalents on a Zachlavine trade right now, would
you bet the over the under on that? I think it'd probably go over
if you're letting me use a like a you know, a rookie scale contract
prospect type guy as one of those, because I could see it being two
first like decent ones, and then a young player plus the salary match,
or you could even get three if one of those is you know, have
some decent protections on it or might not convey or whatever. And then and
then whatever you get for Carter Caruso DeRozan, I don't know what you get
for Vucevic. He may just not be someone that the Caruso between them is
at least two first round picks, I think. I think so. Yeah,
even even though ones are rental and the others like, you know,
not going to play more than twenty five minutes for you. It's just what
they both bring is valuable Uh, Cleveland Cavaliers are next up. They've we've
moved on from the sub five hundred East teams for a little bit, eight
and six plus zero point nine net rating, kind of rounding into form after
a rough start and still not fully healthy. Donovan Mitchell's been missing time,
and they were able to beat the hold off the Sixers on Tuesday night.
I bet you thought I was gonna focus on Evan Mobley's offensive growth, which
I think is way more pronounced than people are giving credit for. I decided
to focus on the entire team though. They are playing faster and it's it's
important, slower, methodical over dribbling stuff kind of punctuated what they did last
year. They were twenty ninth in average possession time. They're all the way
up to twenty first right now, which again is not lightning speed, but
it's faster. And the bigger thing is they're getting out in transition more,
especially after snaring live rebounds. They're getting out in transition on those plays thirty
one point two percent of the time. That's a top nine rate compared to
the ranked seventeenth in that same category last year. And I think the bigger
thing is so when you're playing with some of your bench guys. There is
that inherent inclination to play fast. They also rolled out I haven't been seen
a lot of even when Jared Allen was out with George Nang and Dean Wade
as your front court, they rolled that out against the Sixers. I didn't
look at the data on it, like that lineup is just built to play
fast. That can happen. We're not built to play fast, but like
Georgia x oct particularly fast, but he will push the ball or he'll get
rebounds and get the quick outlet so that the guards can start running things.
Also, by the way, maybe one thing I should have focused on this
more, but I started prepping before he was really going off. The Craig
Porter Junior minutes have been an absolute delight for what's going on. He's had
two unbelievable games in a row and just like talk about found money, like
how in the world has he been so impactful out of nowhere and just really
helping him navigate absences from both Garland and Mitchell who speaking of Mitchell, he's
looking to push more. Evan Mobley is just making quicker decisions and there is
a when you're looking not even just at the transition, but the half court
stuff running faster. Max Struce just provides. It's not just he fires up
so quickly, he's moving quickly. He'll pass quickly, He'll decide to drive
and then pass quickly. He'll get off his two's quickly. The fact that
he is such a quick decision maker has really benefited their base offense. That
I think, combined with Domin Mitchell looking to push even if he can hold
the ball, still a lot when you get to the half court. And
then just Evan Mobley, I know there's been moments where it feels like there's
a stall or it's buffering internet and he's trying to figure things out. The
decisions he can make from the center of the floor with his live dribble,
like they're just faster, and I think you could argue is Cleveland fast enough,
but like this is just another as you're sort of dealing with some of
the space and concerns that you still have when you're playing dual biggs, dealing
with some of the defensive concerns that have returned when you're playing both those bigs.
Just being able to play faster, not just in transition, but in
your half court base. I do think it makes them more viable in the
playoffs. And that's not something I think a lot of people would say about
the Cavaliers and the Macro because of how topsy turvy their start has been.
I'm just a full on believer that it's owed to injuries literally more than anything
else. Yeah, and they've been a little unlucky in terms of three point
opponent three point accuracy. I just like you're at, what are they ranked
right now? On defense? They were number one last year and they're twelve
right now, Like they're going to be a top five defense, Like,
there's just no I don't care if it's two small guards. We've seen it.
We've seen proof that that doesn't matter when you've got the bigs behind them.
So yeah, there's I mean to say that, I think there were
four and six at one point, and they were just such an easy pick
for teams that you just could sell their slow start because of the injuries and
because of all like just the proof of concept from last year. So yeah,
of the teams that are I don't know whose record still isn't what you
maybe thought it was. Cleveland's just like there's no doubt that there's going to
be, you know, significant improvement even from even from Hero when they played
well lately. That takes me happy about Isaaco Korro's three point shooting when healthy
over forty percent on the air is he he is right at forty percent?
Man and Strus is at thirty seven point three on almost eight attempts a game,
like that's exactly what do you have his per thirty six? Like,
what is he doing per thirty six? That is a ten? Well,
he's averaging thirty five point eight minutes, so it's all right, so I
would actually like that number to be hot. That's lower than what he was
averaging last year. My have he's doing more stuff inside the art though for
them, which is important. He's averaging just under four assists. I don't
know what he averaged last year. Jil Bald movement has been just great for
them. They look really good, all right. That takes us to the
Detroit Pistons. Oh man, we are pivoting hard here. They're two and
thirteen minus seven point nine net rating. They are on what is the losing
streak at eleven something like that. It's not good, is what it is.
They are not winning games and not staying particularly close in a lot of
them. So what do you got here? One? I have three notes
like one, thank you for going through the vitals because it gives me time
to time stamp these things before I begin talking too. If anyone seen me
just watching it, I'm just looking all around. One of my dogs was
laying right by my chair wheels, and it felt like he was still there,
and I just looked around, and he's now in one of his beds.
If anyone see behind me all over the thing right there, so I'm
not running over my dog. I was very concerned that that's what I was
about to do. But now I can fidget like I normally do. That's
exciting, and I think maybe so maybe it was only two notes. My
pistons, we've already talked about Joleen Duran, we did a little thing on
them, or Sarr Thompson. I don't know if we've talked about him at
length. Let's do that. Holy holy fuck, is all I have to
say there is let's get the cliche out of the way, which is a
very real thing. The jumper is an issue, but like he can still
do stuff on offense. I do if he doesn't have a jumper, you
do need to plan your roster and lineups to where if you want him to
cut more, you want him to run off screens more downhill, you know,
you need to either have a floor spacing big or just better floor spacing
in general, which the Pistons don't have right now. Still, you can
see the outlines of what he can do away from the ball and the fact
that he's just already a good passer without running the offense. He's a top
eight assist rate among everyone who has finished as many drives as him, and
that number is like over sixty players, I believe. And then we just
get to the defense, like, okay, look, the counting stats are
sexy. He's grabbing over ten boards a game, a lot of those coming
on the defensive end. He's in the top five of stocks, steals,
and blocks right now. Super cool. Love it. Opponents are shooting forty
six point four percent against him at the rim. That's a top three mark
among eighty players who have contested at least forty looks near the basket, and
Osar Thompson has by the way, I brought the number down as low as
possible because the star. Thompson has contested like sixty looks at the basket,
so only Walker Kessler is in front of him, and you're not gonna guess
the other name. It's Christian Wood. We really do players in front of
him. Yeah, so playing with Anthony Davis looks pretty good on him at
point. I mean, he's looked, He's actually looked really good with the
Lakers and basically all his minutes. The other thing is just the assignment.
So I dug into the data and I pulled his top seven defensive assignments.
These stats aren't perfect, but I'm not gonna cite what opponent shot against him.
Instead, I'm gonna tell you what the teams have averaged per possession when
he's guarding these players. Chicago average is averaging point nine eight points per possession
when when I saw Thompson guards the marta Rozen Milwaukee has scored one point zero
four points per possession when he guards Damian Lillard. Portland has scored one point
zero two points per possession when he guards Shandon Sharp. Again, just because
you're wondering why Shandon Sharp's there, I'm just looking at the top seven assignments
from him so far. Atlanta has scored point eight points per possession when he
guards to Jante Murray Okase has scored point nine to seven points per possession when
he guards Shake Gilges Alexander Golden State has scored point nine eight points per possession
when he guards Klay Thompson, and the Sixers have scored zero point seven to
nine points per possession when he guards Tyrese Maxi. The breadth of these assignments
and the results are just both absurd and even if his jumper never comes along,
this is going to be a really useful NBA player, Not in Detroit's
current environment, but if he can even become I don't know what would be
the comp where it's if he can become this player. If he could become
RJ. Barrett off the catch right now, and even even a lesser version
of what RJ. Barretts done off the catch this season, this might be
an all NBA player. He's almost certainly gonna make it All defense team.
I mean, he's like the Barrett comparisons interesting. That's he kind of is
a tricky guy to figure out. Like if you ask the question, well,
if he could do X like catch and drive like Barrett or hit open
like when he's left wide open in the corners or whatever, be Gary Payton
in the second and just you know, shoot thirty six percent or whatever it
is. He's been higher, he's been lower. He's tricky to like he's
tricky to imagine if you add a skill or two. I think he's ahead
of where Barrett was in terms of like if he has the ball with a
line dribble, can he get to where he wants to go? Like he
first of all, he's a he's ahead of r J. Barrett there now,
probably even with r J. Barrett's problems. I was more so e
citing like what's a an if he shooter that can be bankable and certainly if
he gets RJ. Barrett's catch and shoot stroke right now or something like who
is the player where it's they're kind of fringe even if if he's Marcus Smart
off the catch from three in most seasons and there's no reason, so like
I don't know where to go with like what he could be what's fascinating to
me? And the stats are amazing, but just watching him play and he's
one of the most fun like non shooters to watch play that has been in
the league for a really long time, usually a rookie, and considering the
assignments he's gotten, it's like doubly true. A rookie will get tested a
lot, like guys will kind of go at him, especially if he has
some reputation like this, But generally speaking, guys are gonna get shots up
against him. You can already see just anecdotally the amount of times every game
where he's in a you know, not necessarily an isolation situation, but maybe
he's chasing a guy over a screen and gets back in front, or like
guys just don't attempt shots that they would otherwise attempt. So, like the
block rate's great and all the like, all the suppression of field goal percentages
is great, but like his defense is like there's a third level, which
is you don't even let the other guy shoot because he realizes I don't have
the space to do it. I got to get off the ball. He
already does that all the time as a as an individual defender. So like,
I don't know, I mean, I can't remember the last defensive prospect
that I was like more excited by as a wing than him. I And
I don't know where I like I literally can't think of someone. I'm sure
listeners will throw out some names, but like you know, I don't know
what to I don't know who to compare him to. That that's I guess
that's the takeaway. He's that this might be a good baseline. Is so
when you look at I mean, the dude is is six seven or six
six, like he's around that size and block rate is just absurd. So
I went back and looked, h, this is every player to like until
this season who is six foot seven or shorter and had a block rate of
at least two, defensive rebounding rate of at least twenty, steel percentage of
at least one point five. So it's like it's cherry picked, but those
are just common base lines. Yeah, and then I sorted them by,
okay, who matched Asar Thompson's rookie assist percentage. So there are three other
players to date that have turned in the season like that, and two of
them all three of them have multiple seasons of it. Draymond Green is first
with seven, Paul Millsap is second with three of those seasons, and then
there's Charles Barkley with two. And that's just it. And then Scotty Barnes
is doing it right now. That's like, well, and those guys are
all that's the crazy thing. So he's categorized on cleaning the glasses of forward,
which he sort of is and isn't right because he has like you know,
like you just say, like some point guard instincts, like as a
prospect him win, I'm Thompson was off the floor or off the ball like
Lasar was running the offense. And granted that's like, you know, we're
talking about a totally different level of competition, but like he's not. He's
not Paul Millsap. That's like a totally different type of player. So you're
getting and so circling back like being categorized as a forward, he still has
a ninety seven percent percentile block grate and he's still in the hundredth percentile as
an offensive rebounder among forwards and like you can put him on Damian Lillard defensively
and feel great about it. They're like the disconnect between those two things is
kind of wild, and it again it speaks to like who is what is
this guy? Like he's definitely not something you see more than once every what
ten years fifteen years. I'm really hoping when the Pistons are fully healthy that
we get to and it's just tough because they're never gonna roll out a big
unless it's Stew at the five, that you could get to four out around
him. But can we get to three out like consistent where it's you're looking
at. Probably a good lineup would be a healthy Monte Morris with Boye Bogdanovich.
You could whatever big you want. If he's not gonna be. If
it's not gonna be Stew at the five, get me dirt at the five
then and that it's do you trust Kate enough? Is it? Alec Burk's
there, You're too small? But give him three dependable shooters get to those
lineups more often, which is not something Detroit has had the capacity to do
at the moment. And I would really like to see, Okay, even
if he's not the one taking jumpers, like what does this look like on
off? Yeah? No, he's he's one to watch for sure. Will
this will not be the last time we discuss him. I think will be
the last time in this pot we talked about the Pistons because we're on to
the Indiana Pacers. Who are eight and five plus point zero zero point six
net rating, but the best offense in the National Basketball Association, and that
got a pretty solid boost when they scored six hundred trillion points last night.
As we record this on Wednesday, that game I only caught bits of.
It was absurd. I have no I like, that's a game I should
probably go back and watch, and I just don't think it might exhaust me.
Tyres Albert threw this one pass. He was trapped at the back court.
He slung it one handed across the court to a to the corner on
the other end obi top and then got the actual assist to Uh. I
think it was was Aaronie Smith, like was just cutting the back. It
was. It was chaos. So I heard a stat and it like kind
of warped my brain. So I think the over and I'll get it not
exactly right, but the point will convey. I think the over under for
that game was something like Indiana Atlanta was what we're talking about from Tuesday night
was in the like two fifty range, so like you know, one twenty
four twenty six or one twenty five apiece or whatever, which is the highest
spread that we've seen in a really long time. They scored. They beat
that number by like fifty plus points. Like they were over the highest over
under we've seen in a really long time. They could buy for three hundred
and twenty something was real five right, It's like, I just so so
we haven't even got to what you'r thing is. But like, holy god,
Terry Saliburtn is the best offensive orchestrator that we've seen in a very long
time. But what do you like about the Pacers? Is it the defense?
No, I'm not gonna focus on the defensive bride surprise. Last year
there was a much ado made over their offensive progress. However, despite being
a flashy offense, they ranked twenty fourth in half court efficiency. I hope
you haven't looked at these numbers. Do you know where they rank this season
in half court not overall offensive rating, but half court offensive rating. Unfortunately
I do know that because when they were not even as high as they are
now, I cited it as something I wrote as like a holy shit,
this is getting serious for the Pacers. But please tell us they are now.
Jackie my notes first in half court efficiency. That mark, I mean
it includes the Atlanta game. But they also got shellacked against the Magic on
Sunday Night, the league best defense, Orlando Magics. So that's what the
that's what Orlando's defense apparently looked like against the best offense in the NBA.
By the way, we haven't gotten to the Magic yet, so I digress
that stability is important because yes, this team is still the fastest team in
the league off opponent makes, but to have the half court stability was sort
of the missing element. And I think they've done some stuff with Tyre's haliburt
and off the ball. Caitlin Cooper had pointed that out. I think really
the bigger thing for me is well over top and flying around helps Bruce Brown
is his steadiness intelligence like rolled into one, and so they've been able to
get to units without Tyre's Haliburton. We're no, the results on defense still
aren't always great, but you're able to survive without Tyre's haliburt, and I
think that's really helped inflate their their offensive rating. And look, we caught
a lot of shit because neither of us are as high on bennedc. Mathern
as most pacers fans. I do wonder if bringing Buddy healed off the bench
has also kind of helped stabilize that because now you just have this lights out
shooter playing around. Yeah, he could spend some time with like the main
guys, but when you're getting to these units that have to three reserves and
Buddy Heeld and Jalen Smith around the court at the same time, it doesn't
matter how slow things are operating, how much you don't trust your creation.
Defenses are just being bent to the point of breaking. And this is like,
this offense is for real. The show is real, and if they
can get any sort of just stops or at least I know you're playing small,
but could we grab a defensive rebound? Could we stop pailing that's such
an excessive clip this team could or even if they make a trade, like
who is the worst player they could acquire? And you're just ready to say,
oh, this is a top four team in the East that I don't
think it needs to be og Ananobi. No, I think you wouldn't.
You wouldn't quite need that. But but that is where the help. Can
we can we just somehow get them a star Thompson and just just enjoy the
peer care. He would look like on offense on this team, he would
just be dunking NonStop, just over and over and over again. A couple
of things. Uh, guess who started for the first time last night,
Buddy healed, And guess who was a plus twenty Buddy. So I think
maybe that's changing, and I'm not going to back off my Benedict Matheren does
not make as much sense as a starter as Buddy Heel does, and so
I think I think we're gonna be We're gonna be vindicated on that. I
want to talk about Haliburton real quick, because I know time and time again
when trying to convey just like how little attention he was getting last year relative
to how historic he was as an offensive like initiator, because he averaged twenty
and ten and he shot forty percent from three that had never happened before.
He's at twenty four and twelve and he's shooting forty five percent from three this
year, and I just like don't see other than like suddenly he's a really
improved in terms of volume, especially like off the dribble three point shooter,
Like nothing feels unsustainable. I think we keep We've been a little hyperbolic these
last couple teams talking about Thompson, as you know, defies comparison and Haliburton
is this great. But like the list of guys I think that you can
rely on to have so total control over an offense and believe and know that
they are going to generate awesome looks for themselves and everybody else, like Haliburton's
in. You know, you can't just go around the league and say like,
well, I mean it's you know, Curry and Luca territory. It's
like you gotta do some like back dating stuff and start mentioning guys like Nash
and like young Chris Paul and stuff like that, because just as an offensive
engine, like good luck finding someone that you can rely on to ensure elite
offense more than you can rely on him. He's been I mean I don't
We can't say he's been the MVP because that's just it's stupid to say anybody
has this early. But if he's not in the top like what six or
seven in terms of MVP right now, I like, I don't know what
we're doing because he's been unbelievable coming off a year that no one had ever
had last year. Yeah, I and how does he do what he does
with with apparently out ever turning the ball. Oh right, he has a
forty did you mention his assis presentage at forty eight point three and he's a
twelve point four turnover rate just like I haven't looked, but I would hazard
that a like first of all, that it's this rate is just absolutely mind
meldingly high. I don't know how many players throughout NBA history, and maybe
Chris Paul crops up there once. This is just like it's that the the
scoring package is the passing package of the everything. If he wasn't such a
weak point on defense though like he does, that's just you could still build
a contender around him. It's just they they're still they need the wing thing,
like it can't just be like the Aaronny Smith or Bruce Brown like they
need that. They need that player. And I'm one, I'm curious how
they like this. JAREDS Walker's not a wing. Could he develop into him?
He's not playing a ton you mentioned. It's not gonna be better than
Bathord, who I did not know came off the bench on Tuesday night,
and I do wonder if that could hurt it might help him. Looking at
the level of competition he goes at. But that doesn't hurt what I was
mentioning about Buddy Heals where it's okay, well, you just have him coming
off the bench to stabilize some of the non Halibert minutes. Yeah, I
think a lot of it, you know, right, It's it's interesting.
I think matheren is just his game makes a lot of sense as the go
get us buckets while we don't have our best guys out there type of guy
because he'll get to the foul line or you know, he's shown in long
stretches the ability to do that really well. I mean, it's a good
problem because both those guys can really score it, and Halbert is just going
to make it easier for whoever he's out there with. So that's it for
the Pacers. We're on to the Miami Heat, who sit at nine and
five, which is a pretty darn good record considering they're just barely overbreak even
in net rating plus zero point three. Have been mostly defined by their defense
so far this year. But I'm curious where you're going to go here for
the Heat? Do you go in any number of directions? Jimmy Butler flip
the switch taken to making more threes. How may Hawk is filling all the
gaps. He's starting to hit his threes as well. Tayla Martin has not
looked great, but he's at least back. I'd be thankful for that.
Dougan Robinson, the inside the arc know how that he showed during the playoffs
is carried over the regular season. Yeah, Hayward hog Smith, what's that
still here? I did not think we'd be talking about the that Duncan Robinson
sustained off the dribble and non three point shooting game after the playoffs, But
here we are, and then you haven't Hay what Highsmith? Just defending up
and down the positional spectrum, among other things. I think the big one
for me is just Bammannebayo continues to grow on the offensive end. He's scoring
more despite playing slightly fewer minutes. Big part of that is he's just getting
to the foul line more often per thirty six minutes. What's interesting about that,
though, is his rim frequency has declined by ten percent for a second
consecutive year like that double digit, so he's not getting there as much.
But a lot of that's just in service of the agency he's having over the
offense from the in between or as a lead playmaker. He just looks so
much more of that part. And it's like the patience he is showing when
he gets the ball to let plays develop. He's taking more isolations this year,
he's been knocking down shots in those situations, added unreal clip. More
of his buckets that ever have now gone unassisted. He's upped his efficiency on
fataway jumpers compare last year. And when he is getting paint touches, he's
shooting above sixty percent on them right now, and then he's generating fouls at
a good clip. There's only two other players who have made as many field
goals and free throws at the same clips as bam Adebayo this season. That's
Anthony Davis and chet Holmgrid who just pops up into all these things. It's
it's absolutely unreal. I think there can be concerned because Miami still loses the
minutes that Jimmy Butler doesn't play when you look when you start to dig into
the lineup data on that, though, bam is asked, being asked to
carry these combinations that just have no secondary creation. Maybe that changes a little
bit when Tyler Hero comes back. I do think ultimately this development from BAM,
when you're looking at Miami's best lineups, is going to end up being
huge for the team, what to not just survive the regular season, but
once you get to the playoffs, especially if you're not going to wind up
making a trade for someone who cracks your closing lineup. Yeah, I mean,
you're talking about lineups like their starting unit is just one of the best
ones in the league full stop right now. So we're talking about Lowry,
Duncan, Robinson, high Smith, Butler, and out of Bio. They're
in one hundred and fifty one possessions, which is a decent number for as
early as we are. They're plus nineteen point one, and the most surprising
thing is that unit is really scoring. I guess maybe that's not surprising because
Butler, Robinson, and Lowry are all comfortably over forty percent from three,
but high Smith is like thirty percent. Ish is not a threatening shooter.
Auto Bio is a great offensive player. But like I thought that if you're
gonna play Heismith a lot, and you're gonna play him with BAM, you'r
spacing might get a little crunchy, especially with Jimmy out there, but that
unit is scoring totally. Like if if they're at one twenty four point five
points per one hundred offensively, like if that comes down by twenty percent,
you're still like in pretty good shape for a Miami offense. I did want
to pull up the because you alluded to it. The minutes with uh auto
bio on the corp and Butler off are real rough specifically on offense. They're
like a seventh percentile scoring efficiency offense. In those situations they're getting out scored
by eight point two points per hundred. So, bam, how many you
know if you have the most used lineup though, that's like in that the
most used yes, bam, No, Jimmy lineup yeah is minus nine point
three right now is but who's in it? Is my point? It's yeah,
Josh Richardson, Jimahawk as Duncan Robinson, Caleb Martin and bam. So
that sounds like a lineup that should be working will work better over the long
terriblely it should, I think. Well, yet, see I don't know
if it's sorted for like what the opponents are shooting, but they're not scoring
actually they're scoring fine, they're giving up one twenty five point three on defense,
so maybe that's that's the issue. Maybe that's I don't have it sorted
to tell me how opponents are shooting from three. That could just be kind
of noisy. But yeah, no, the heat. Just to fin I
thought the heat were like based on, you know, being basically a five
hundred team last year, until they've made the finals all of a sudden and
losing talent. We're just going to really struggle this year. And was wrong
about that. We're both officially because we don't think we were fair when we
killed them for their offseason, but we're both default they do. We don't
need to explain it. You just have to believe that my A is going
to be a threat. What about it? Like they've just earned that benefit
of the doubt. Now. I know they'll figure it out, and then
once we fully embrace that, then they'll suck and we'll just not know which
way is up after that. Speaking of up, the Milwaukee Bucks, things
are looking up after a start I stupidly panicked over. So they're ten and
four. They are plus two point two, which still seems you know,
that's not in step with the ten and four record, but we're not super
worried about that. And I'm also just gonna stop panicking about Milwaukee, especially
after like six games, which I did, So tell me about the Bucks.
What's good that's going on there. I think the big optimism, aside
from you know, Dame just has really has changed their offense even when he's
not hitting threes, is that Adrian Griffin apparently listens to his players. So
through the first four games of the season, they didn't have Brook Lopez,
the Defensive Player of the Year runner up who thrives working at drop coverage.
He was not working at drop coverage nearly as often. The results were bad.
Milwaukee ranked first in opponent rim frequency, but they were dead last in
shooting accuracy, surrendered surrendered at the hoop. They were allowing about an eighty
one percent clip through those first four games. That contributed to their defensive struggles.
They were twenty ninth overall on defense, twenty fourth and a half court
defense. Then they started playing Brook and dropped more. It was on November
third against the Knicks. During that game, Griffin went on ESPN and said
the players acts to put Brook back and drop and so he just obliged,
and the Bucks defense has been night and day since then. They're allowing more
looks at the rim, but that's what happens if you're going to drop that
deep. But they're now fourth in shooting accuracy allowed at the rim. Their
half court defense has recovered from twenty fourth to a good, not great,
but better fourteenth. And they still have their issues, I think, specifically
when you're looking at the point of attack, even more specifically when you're looking
at their guards, how easy it is to get behind them off your missus
in the offense. That's something they need to figure out a way to address,
maybe at the trade deadline or can you know, some of these guards
just play better in those situations. But if you're the Bucks and your offense
is just going to be thermonuclear af and is only going to get better as
Damian Lillard gets better, you just need to have an average or better defense.
They have a better than average defense right now, and so that case
that we were building for them to actually be the favorites in the Eastern Conference,
even though the Celtics exist, especially with you know, Chris Middleton minutes
gradually coming up his pull up jumpers starting to fall like this team is right
there, it's not Boston and everyone else. To me, it's still Boston
and Milwaukee and everyone else. Yeah, I think that's right. And I
think too, like I wonder what the sort of statute of limitations is going
to be on this Discussing the logic of taking brook Lopez out of a drop
getting off of it after four games is great, but I just wonder almost
like, hey, let's try to force turnover. So right, that was
the stated goal. But it's like this team was, you know, has
been top whatever defensively. There's like one blip in there when they were fourteenth
a couple of years ago. But their top ten routine league with like terrible
opponent, Like they don't force turnovers. It's just like not part of it
and it still works great. It's almost like like, you know, how
whenever we've been through this, as Bleacher Report has been like acquired and reacquired
and had bigger and bigger companies in charge of it. Sometimes like things people
will come in and say, like I gotta change something, So we're going
to use a new email server for some reason, just because that's that's what
we do. When when a company gets taken over and it's like, yeah,
but the old one was fine, do we need and it's gonna,
we're gonna. I am here to effect change and guess what now it's outlook,
deal with it. Now we're gonna So it's almost like Griffin came in
and was like, how do I put my stamp on this team? I
know, I know we're gonna change the defense, We're gonna we're gonna force
turnovers. It's a new day. And then you quickly realize, like,
no, the old one was totally fine. We don't need to we don't
need to do anything. They also were not forcing overs during that stretch.
Anyway, I understand the logic of, Okay, we're significantly weaker at the
point of attack. Is this a way to cover up for it? Yeah,
but it was nice. I wouldn't have tried it either. But you're
right about the leaving their mark, because we talk about this when there's a
front office change or an ownership change of NBA teams, they want to leave
their mark. Is it firing the head coach, isn't making a trades,
is tripping down the roster. I'm assuming that's the logic. I think it's
good that he listened to his players. And I also think it's like these
players were so quickly to ask for that. They didn't even give it five
years like no, this is this is cooked. I knew that they they
got like a half decade of information that says like no, no, it
works when we do this, Like but like you couldn't you, like,
especially see a new head coach, we have to do personnel that oh will
give it more more than four games. Right, the fact they asked for
it so quickly, I love and appreciate. Yeah, I think he ultimately,
You're right, he deserves credit because it would have been so easy to
say, like maybe not even in as polite as terms as let's just see
as like no, no, no, this is my I'm I'm going down
with it. I'm sticking to this for better or worse for half the year.
We'll see where we are. Like, no, he moved off it
quickly, So that's that's definitely a credit, especially like you're coming in to
coach a potential championship roster and you'd want to make it feel like you're doing
something to affect to like get this team where it wants to be, to
get off that quickly is good. Let's get off of the Milwaukee Bucks and
move to the New York Knicks, who are eight and six plus four point
seven net rating. The offense is tenth, the defense is seventh. Should
have a better record than they have, but here we are. What do
you like about the Knicks so far? I don't know who needs to hear
this, but Mitchelle Robinson has been their best player, and I think we
really need to appreciate them. Jalen Brunson is coming for that crown. He's
more important. The RJ. Barrett decision making turn is real, but he
has been dominant, arguably at both ends of the floor. The on off
splits on defense are very wonky. Opponents are shooting more often and better at
the room when he's on the court. But those offenses are really planning around
Mitchell Robinson this season, where they're trying to have bigs where they can stretch
him out. They're gonna put them in the corner or they're gonna go out
of their way, which it makes sense to put Julius Randall and Jalen Brunson
in pick and roll together, and they either know that the Knicks aren't gonna
switch or they know that the Knicks aren't gonna change up their coverage. The
ground that Robinson has had to cover, and I the hesitance that I feel
like he inflicts upon opponent offensive plays. It's Anthony Davis esque. It's not
nearly the same as Anthony Davis. I'm just talking about the ground that he
needs to cover as a big who's not allowed to play this traditional big man
role on the defensive end. But he's arguably been even more valuable on offense
because the Knicks still desperately need his offensive rebounding. He currently has the highest
offensive rebounding rate on record, and so that's just massive unto itself, because
you look at a Knicks team, their first chance offense in the half court
is bad. They're twenty third right now. Mitchell Robinson. This is all.
This is according to PBP stats, and it's entering Wednesday's games. Mitchell
Robinson's grabbing about twenty five percent of New York's missed twos, including twenty nine
percent of their missed attempts at the rim and twenty five percent exactly of their
missed twos between four and fourteen feet. This matters because the Knicks are dead
last in efficiency at the rim and twenty fifth inefficiency from that foreign fourteen foot
range, So him generating those second chance opportunities is just critical to their offensive
livelihood for anyone who cares. He's also grabbing about eleven percent of New York's
miss threes. Now, Robinson is woefully inefficient when it comes to trying to
go back up with the ball and score when he does this, but he
knows how to get the ball out to someone who's on the three point line
or just around the basket, and the numbers actually bear that out that his
offensive rebounds are more valuable than other people's offensive rebounds because the Knicks' second chance
offensive rating with Mitchell Robinson on the floor, they're averaging one point one to
two points per possession versus point eight nine without him. And a big part
of that is, yes, Mitchell Robinson kind of knows where to look.
But when you have so many bodies trying to prevent Mitchell Robinson from getting said
offensive rebound, someone's going to be open, gonna be able to duck in
going ahead and open three. And until we've seen Jalen Brunson get a little
bit hotter. But until this Knicks team performs its first chance half court offense
more consistently, because that's an issue dating back to last season, Mitchell Robinson
is probably no worse than the second most important player in that building right now.
Argue third, because it's like, well of r J. John brunt
in two and Julius Randall, two of those guys hit more more of their
perimeter looks that stabilizes the offense. But right now, Mitchell Robinson is probably
the Knicks's second most important player, and he's been their best player this season.
We should just appreciate it. I don't know if this is the ideal
situation for them to be in, but you absolutely have to appreciate the body
of work. I agree, I think it's And it's just always kind of
fun when we don't have this happen very much, where a big guy doing
big guy stuff like matters in the modern NBA, because you know, all
we focus on is like, well, Kinny Garden a switch and he's not
gonna provide any spacing and all this, like that's all we've talked about for
like ten years about big guys like Mitchell Robinson, and now I just it's
like a refreshing thing that he is, and you're like, you're not overstating
it at all, especially for this team specifically that just couldn't make a two
for you know, the first three weeks of the season at all, to
have just the most like ideal fit for that deficiency to just mitigate it and
then you know, make the Knicks semi functional on offense despite just at one
point, maybe like not that long ago, because they're up the fifty six
point eight percent at the room, which is still lasting the league, but
it's not the worst in like franchise history, which was but you know,
up until maybe a week ago, he's just like, you couldn't you could
not come up with a player more purpose built to keep the Knicks like at
a break even level or better with the specific flaws they have than him.
So he's been yeah, like, no no argument here, he's been unbelievable.
From the New York Knicks, we moved to the Orlando Magic and they're
number one in the NBA defense, allowing one hundred and six point seven points
per hundred possessions. As we record this, they are nine to five,
their net rating, seventh best in the league. Plus four point seven despite
an offense that has not been good. What what I've we got to talk
about the defense? I guess, But what do you like about the Magic
so far? Well, it is just their their top right defense feels for
real, even if they're not going to say in first place, it feels
top five, top seven at worst. Would you dig into when you watch
them? I think you just get it. They don't start. There's like
no deficient defensive players on this roster that are logging heavy minutes. Cole Anthony's
not great because he's small, but he's a really good defensive rebounder for his
size. Anthony Black navigates the floor in the half court as a defender like
in all defense, vet Jalen Sugs is this unique meld of strength and eclipsing
hands. The Jonathan Isaac Minnetes. Yeah, they're always gonna be limited until
the end of time, but his dominant interchangeability is really able to inflict havoc
on the half court. This is all happening. By the way, Markel
Foltz has missed a bunch of time with his left knee injury, and then
Wendell Carter Junior, who was holding opponents to sub forty percent shooting at the
rim, has not been playing. Oh that's okay, because Gogo Batadz is
just gonna come in and be a really good rim protector and move well on
defense. I would not I did not see enough of him last season.
I guess. I don't know if he saw Saw flashed or gave us flickers
of this. I've been absolutely mind blown by that. I do think a
lot of it helps where your role becomes simplified when you're this good on the
perimeter. I think even Franz Wagner's more of a nuisance on the wing that
he gets credit for. Palla Bankaro's a little bit switchier and just physical that
he more physical than he gets credit for. So this defense is the best
in the league, might get better. And when you dig into the numbers,
so watching it, you just get it forcing turnovers like whoa. But
then you dig into the numbers and it's well, where is the regression going
to come from? I don't know. Opponents are shooting thirty three and a
half percent on wide open threes, that number will come up. Yeah,
that is That's like the only thing I found where I'm like, well,
you know like this is gonna change because are markkel Foltz and or when no
Carter Junior're gonna make them worse on defense. They've they've catered to defense in
a way to where it has impacted their offense when you start to get into
the half court stuff how it looks. But by building this defense, it
is also giving them a we're one off the dribble shot maker away feel from
being this materializing giant in the Eastern Conference. Yeah, and I will,
like I it's kind of a bit at this point where I just I dump
on Jalen Suggs because he's such a good defensive player and he can't pass and
can't make threes thirty five point one percent from deep this year still turns it
over way too much, doesn't have He's just I don't know what you're gonna
do with him as like a facilitator. But if he could be a league
average three point shooter with the level of defense that he plays, then like
I'm not I think I might be done bagging on how the Magic just don't
have good enough guards. At least they're gonna have one. I think if
he's gonna shoot like this, the other thing. I just looked this up
because I had to do. I couldn't believe when I saw this. So
Jonathan Isaac, right thirteen point seven minutes, you mentioned like he's just always
gonna be a pitch count guy and just is not gonna, you know,
play tons of games in a row uninterrupted based on his history. In thirteen
point seven minutes per game, he's averaging over a block and a steal and
he's played a dozen games. No one in NBA history has played that many
games in a season. It's a low bar and averaged a block and a
steal with as few minutes as he has. I could have just pulled up
his block and steal rates on cleaning the glass to emphasize how ridiculous he's been.
But like, man, you're getting a lot in a short amount of
time from him in terms of defensive impact. I think, and this is
what this is kind of who we thought he would be if he could have
stayed healthy. And you're never going to get this over thirty five minutes a
game. But man, like just as as someone to throw in there and
just ruin an offense for you know, the equivalent of like a quarter per
game that's like he's you know, he's not the reason that they have the
number one defense, but he is for sure a reason. All right,
we've got Orlando, here we go. Philadelphia seventy six Ers are next.
They are ten and four plus nine net rating that's second best in the league,
number three offense, number ten defense, a whole bunch to like and
maybe some knits to pick, but not that we're going to do that here
because this is a positive edition of the podcast. What's going on with the
Sixers that has your attention? Tyres Maxley going kaboom And it's just like you
could look at other stuff Tobias Harris, Jaden Springer and I'm just no like
it. It has to be Tyres Maxi going kaboom. This is not your
run of the mill star arrival. It's more like an all NBA turn.
He's averaging twenty seven points and seven assists, hitting over forty two percent of
his triples. Luca, Steph Hallie and Tatum are the only players who've made
more pull up triples, and Maxi so far as shooting fifteen of twenty seven
on step back threes, and that includes the weirdo airball step back three he
took against the loss to the Calves on Tuesday Night. Mid Range efficiency not
there yet. Tough to kind of harp on it though, when he's polished
his change of pace when he goes downhill, he's shooting fifty percent on floaters,
which is lower than last year. But it's just coming amid more attention
and like more more traffic and tighter spaces. So his growing unpredictability is huge
for the Sixers all defense. And it's also you know, it's translated to
his playmaking. You don't know what type of passes he's gonna make. Now
he's doubled his He's nearly doubled his assists for thirty six minutes. He was
averaging six point nine potential assists last year. That's up to ten point eight.
Now. Defenses are harder pressed to get him to pick up his dribble,
which I think has helped him a bunch. And yeah, there's a
chemistry with Joel Embiid that is telepathic, but he doesn't need Joel Embid,
like this rise is independent of Joel Embiid, And to that end, the
Sixers have are winning the minutes without Embid. When Maxi plays by ten points
per one hundred possessions with an offensive rating that rates not only the eighty fifth
percentile, but in a half court offensive rating that rates in the seventieth percentile.
This is like what we're witnessing now is huge. It changes the entire
calculus of not just the Sixers future, but what they need to do with
the trade assets they got from the James Harden deal. Where we weren't the
first once introduced this, we have talked about it. You don't necessarily need
a capslock star. You're not desperate to get involved on the zach Lavine discussions,
or Pascal Siakam becomes available, you might be able to just kind of
fuz and fiddle, not on the margins, but I'm like the top,
middle, middle, top of your rotation, rather than looking, oh,
we need a second best player or a third best player. So the fact
that Maxi has one of the most dangerous step back threes, like just if
you were just a good off the dribble, like pull up three point shooter,
which he's been even last year. He's in the thirty eight percent range
last year on those shots. But the fact that like maybe the fastest guy
Downhill has a step back and you have to guard him like on your heels
anyway is just cruel, Like there's no there's no like easy solid for a
guy that you have to give a cushion to or he's gonna go right by
you. But who also can go back, like go away from you the
opposite direction and get a shot off and you're getting yelled at by your coach
either way, like you, oh, you can't let him get to that.
It's like, well if I, if I don't let him get to
that, he's gonna be three steps by me and you know, be touching
the paint with no one's even had a chance to blink yet I wanted to.
So I don't know where we talk, and we may have talked about
him as a most improved guy. Certainly he's gonna get a lot of votes
for that, but that's like even that award is kind of beneath him at
this point, like what potentially, but it's not. I just want to
emphasize, like it's not just always playing a little bit more. You know,
he's leading the league in minutes right now. He's up to thirty eight
point seven from just thirty three and a half last year. So like,
yeah, he's playing more, but all his per one hundred possession stats are
up, all his per thirty six stats are up like substantially. And the
thing is, it's not like he's just playing more minutes in the same role
like his the difficulty of his role and the negative impact that should have on
his scoring efficiency is just totally reversed because he's just doing way more with more
defensive attention and is more efficient than ever. It's just the volume and efficiency
are usually like you're trading off has not happened. So this is not a
case of if he wins most improved, it's because the guy went from ahways
a bit player too. Now he's on the ball and the counting stats are
up. It's like the counting stats are up because he's playing more and he's
doing more with those minutes in a harder role. It's just like, this
doesn't this isn't how it works. Typically speaking, he's he's just exceeded expectations
in like every possible way, I guess he'd say, or really quickly,
our bur colleague and friend, Brian Depoory pointed this out to me. Maxually
may have actually benefited from the Sixers not extending him because he would not probably
have had the leverage to include the all NBA language in his contract or maybe
even get a player option, because like we're seeing all these hiring guys not
get player option, and I was just like, we might make it all
NBA team this year, or now we know that he has Oh, he
can get the five year player option special. Yeah, right, No,
he could ask for anything at this point, and you can't. I don't
think you can tell. Well, I mean there is a max salary.
I'd like it. I'd like the seven year deal please, and I'd like
one hundred million a year. Make it, make it happen. Darryl moorey
Tamper, figure it out. All right. So that's the that's Philly.
We are on too. We've only got two more here in the East.
Unless my skipped some alphabetical teams, I don't think I have. No.
This is similar quick one because like the Sixers is kind of just you can't
pick any any one or anything else. Yeah, So we have the Toronto
Raptors coming up next. Six and eight minus one point five net rating,
twenty fifth in offense, eighth in defense. You know, kind of a
weird year. Scottie Barnes is up, seat comes down. What do you
think so far are the raptors The Scottie Barnes megal leap is for real,
and we've covered in detail on this podcast. You could still sort of harp
on his flaws. There's that hesitance in drawing contract contact, not getting all
the way to the basket. Has some Yankee fadaways, but like the book
on, his scoring and playmaking transformations are like they're extensive. He's now a
multi level threat as a scorer. Defenses aren't gonna guard him on threes,
but he's making them pay for that, and his decision making from the in
between. It's still not perfect, but he's definitely more comfortable splitting traffic,
angling his body to maintain separation after he leaves his feet, and he's consistently
hurting opponents who just dropped too far on him inside the arc. This number,
it's not he's not taking a ton of them, but this number is
now held up for weeks. He's shooting sixty percent on more than two pull
up two attempts per game, so he's hitting sixty percent of his pull up
twos. Uh, that's probably not unsustainable, but it is a harbinger of
how much more expansive his offensive package has become. The same goes for as
passing. It's I would say it's visibly more measurably more dynamic. The live
dribble vision feels more comprehensive, especially when he's in the open floor. He's
certainly calmer, more collected when facing doubles and threading the needle over length.
There are some lineups where it still just gets a little bit clumpy. That's
not really on him so much as on the Raptors, And I think even
what's what's just as crucial is that this offensive growth has come with defensive growth.
So it's not like doing more on offense has made him received on the
defensive end. The Raptors under dark old Royakovich do have him guarding like more
likely sized players. Uh, And he's racked up these counting stats that are
like, oh, why wasn't this happening all along? He's seventh in stocks,
But he's also just he closes out, and I when I was writing
about this, he closes out with his speed and control dials both turned to
eleven. I don't like it just doesn't make sense. He's he's as my
dogs go off in the background. For everybody with a Kniett Barnes fans,
those guys, yeah, they're pretty happy. Let me shut this this door
and see if that helps. So I don't even know what I was saying.
Oh, I was talking about his closeouts. So those are a great
thing from him. And he's also just like when he gets behind the play,
he's he's recovering well. And he's also been a regular help presence around
the basket. I think this his leap hasn't been lost in Toronto. There's
a question of, well, how meaningful is it when they're not great.
It's not that Toronto doesn't have access to a direction. Scotty Barnes is the
access. He's good enough to be that direction. Whether they're optimizing that access
is what's at play, and I think the answer is still no. But
the fact that they know they have access to a direction in Scottie Barnes is
a pretty big deal. Yeah, no, I'd echo everything you said there.
If we're gonna I was gonna pick knits about like still too many mid
range shots going up. But he's just better at though he's more accurate on
all those now, so it's less of an issue, and the three point
frequency being like, you know, significantly spiking, and he's making them,
Like I'm I'm not concerned that, like he's a little more jumper dependent than
he's been in the past, just because he's making them. And if you're
gonna knock like that was the knock, is that, well, he doesn't
make him Well, he's making his jumpers, so I don't care if his
rim frequency is down. That takes us to our last team alphabetically, and
I'm just actually, I haven't looked, but I feel like I can guess
where you're going here. For the Washington Wizards, who are two and eleven,
they are not dead last in that rating, so that's cool. There's
two West teams below them, Portland and San Antonio, still minus ten point
nine twenty first on offense. They are dead last in defense and pretty comfortably
so, one twenty three point three per one hundred allowed and the highest opponent
effective field goal percentage. They are also allowing the most opponent offensive rebounds,
so if you don't get him the first time, you're getting them the second
time. This is the Washington Wizards. What's the best thing about the Washington
Wizards so far. Jordan Poole sound bites. Look, it's Denni Avdi has
gotten a lot better. But anyone who listens this podcast knows how much I
have been enamored with Denny Avdi and talked about Dennyavia but a lot of cool
Bali was supposed to be a project, and just like I know, the
Wizards aren't having him running a bunch of picking rolls and running sets for him.
He's a nineteen year old who is shooting forty six plus percent on threes.
They're all unguarded and I don't care like he's taken them. They're going
in. The efficiency will slip potentially even plummet put the willingness to just un
cork those trays at all. That's the win right now, Like, that's
the win for this team. And he can do other stuff on offense which
will mitigate whatever regression might hit his jumper. His drives are chaotic, but
he's a willing kicker and he doesn't let the ball stick his half court off
ball floor navigation. It does keep defenses on tilt, and he's just a
lightning rod. In transition. He's averaging one point three three points per possession
in transition, shooting thirteen of eighteen overall, that rates in the eighty six
percentile. I think I've been I think what he's doing on offense is just
more shocking because he's contributing and he's clearly ready, and I'm curious to see
what they could do if they what he can do if they put the ball
in his hands more. The defense, though, is just we can't lose
sight of it. Even though Washington is just not a good defensive team,
they're baptizing him by fire. He has defended everyone from guards like Jalen Brunson
and Damian Lillard for extensive reps, to guys like on the wing in Jalen
Brown and Brandon Miller, to then like these combo forward big types like both
Scottie Barnes and Pascal Siakam. Again, the results aren't always going to be
pretty, and you can toss Kolabali around on screens. He also doesn't look
overmatched in pretty much any situation. He slides his feet really well. Like
the east west agility that he has is incredibly impressive. He closes out hard
and at intelligible angles. It's like he's kind of operating even faster than Scotty
Barnes on closeout speed. I'd like to compare those two if there's any data
on their closeout speed. But like, he's not fouling a ton in those
situations. He rebounds well for someone of his size and build. I know
he has the length. I know a lot of those rebounds are uncontested,
but he hasn't knows for finding the ball off those misses. And then he's
just really good at using his length to disrupt shots and handles at every level,
both on and away from the ball. This is just it's the perfect
type of emergence for him because I don't know, you look at him and
say, oh, that will be the guy who directs our rebuild. But
he's talented enough to where you wonder, oh, is this gonna be one
of our two or three most important players on a great team. And he's
not driving too much winning at the moment, like you're still gonna be bad
for the next two years. And so it's sort of a perfect storm of
optimism with him. And I'll close with this the caveat that it's still early.
Here is every other rookie Grant who is shorter than six' seven to
post a steal rate of at least one point five and block rate of two
while maintaining Klabally's defensive rebounding percentage and playing at least twenty five minutes per game.
So it's matching cool Bally's defensive rebounding rate being shorter, then six to
seven block and steel rates of one point five for steals, two for blocks,
and then you have to be playing at least twenty five minutes per game.
There's Charles Barkley and Lonzo Ball, so it's a cherry pickstat, but
it's just interesting company to look at with what he's doing. I think those
are really because what I was gonna say is is he's he's still a mystery
box, but like the good kind now because in the draft it was almost
like, you know, there's all these tools here. Defensively, we think
he'll be good, but we don't really know like how what form that'll take.
And then offensively, no idea. So mystery box but not the right
kind. Like now it's well, he's shooting sixty one percent on corner threes
and eighty percent at the rim, and as an awesome defender. And is
in this weird combo or this weird status where his comps are in one regard
anyway, Lonzo Ball like the Ultimate Connector and Charles Barkley like the Option one
superstar. So he's somewhere between those guys, and they're both good. We
don't know what kind of player he'll ultimately be, but the options like are
just you know, they're broader even than they were in the draft, but
they're just all the options look better now, you know, in terms of
his possible outcomes, just because again I don't know, like even if all
of these numbers regress significantly, I'm still gonna leave his rookie seat thinking he
just had so much more than I was led to believe going into the draft.
So yeah, that's that is the absolute like gott to pick him for
the Wizard's positive positive vibes. What's interesting is I'm not sure if I feel
any more confident in my prediction that he would make first team All NBA because
you have a star Thompson, Wemby's gonna make it. You have Chet Holmgren,
and so that's just two spots, and they're just like Marcus sasser Case
and Wallace Derek Lively, de George Hibay Hawk as Brandon Miller, Jordan Hawkins,
Like the names are just like, I mean, the fact that Scoot
Henderson and Amen Thomson got injured probably help his case. So I don't know
if I feel better, I don't feel worse, but like it doesn't even
if he doesn't make it. That prediction I think some people thought was ridiculous
when I made it. It definitely does not, at least look ridiculous now.
No, I think it wasn't because you know, you're banking on the
Wizards is gonna be so bad that like, why wouldn't you play him,
you know, thirty plus minutes every night? And then that wasn't happening early
in the year, but he's played over thirty in three of his last five
games, So like, as the volume ticks up, maybe those counting stats,
you know, get to where you know, I don't know what you'd
call a casual all rookie team voter would say, like, well, I
mean, he's got this many twenty point games now and in addition to all
the stuff you see on film, which was a big part of my basis,
and the fact he's driving his case by I just thought that we're going
to give him absurd volume on offense to explore what he is. That's not
really what they're doing. And yet he's driving his case anyway, which is
a big deal. Yeah, and that could change and then maybe maybe then
the numbers really spike. I think your bet on that front is only going
to look better as time goes on, unless he just, like you know,
shoots twenty percent from three for the rest of the year. But I
don't think that's going to happen. Are you ready to take us out?
No stat heading today? I am fading. You have a schedule crunch,
Yes, you want to take us out of here. All that means is
there'll be more. I have some stat hadding. I'm excited about that.
I will keep in my back pocket for next time. I have the most
random STAF padding question for you yet. Oh that's saying something. Yeah,
I don't know what I'm gonna lose sleep over that one. I don't know
what to think about that. Everybody, Thank you for listening, thank you
for watching, Thank you for contributing. Even though we didn't use any of
your stat padding stuff this time, we probably will in the future, you
know. The drill. If you want to support us, you can do
that by following us on our socials. You can join our discord. You
can buy our merch figure out how to do that through the links in the
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write good things about us where you can do that, Say good things to
your friends and enemies. We close, as always with an apology oooh,
I almost got the closing wrong. Geez, I'm Russian too much, with
a shout out to the one and only Frank Milakina and an apology to Jared Allen