Hello everyone, and welcome to the latest episode of Hardwin Box. This is
out of from with here with my always fantastic co host Dan Valley. Dan
and Brian Taporak have already recorded playoff previews for six of the eight series in
the first round of the twenty twenty two postseason. Dan and I are here
to pick up with the last two. We're coming off the final day of
the play in Tournament, which featured two incredibly exciting basketball games. I think
my heart rate is still coming down a little bit from both games. How
about yours. Yeah. I didn't get into detail as much I wanted to
on Hawks Cavs because I was working on a big project. But I could
between the text message box with you and it and then just like obviously having
it on in the background, just very Sea sawy and high adrenaline and the
Clippers Pelicans on. I had to write something very quickly after that when it
was stressing me out because I thought I was going to be able to work
ahead at one point. But my God validates to play in though, as
Draymond Green tweeted on Saturday Night Friday night as well, excuse me. Midway
through the second quarter, I was going to AXT you be like, so
do you want to like record at halftime? And I'm glad we didn't do
that. Could you imagine it would have been such a time? Right?
At least? I do think it's not that I had interests. I rote
for Chaos, but I think it's good that we saw two nine seeds get
in. And I know it's a unique year, like would the but it's
been like you could argue the Hawks might have actually been a conventional nine seed.
Maybe last year was the anomaly for them. So I think it's good
that it wasn't just seven and eight. Again, I totally agree. I
think this one validated the idea, especially with the competitiveness of the games.
I mean, the nine tens weren't great, but the seven eights and the
final round, both of those were so compelling and so entertaining, and it
did what it's supposed to do, which is get the teams that should be
competing in these postseason series in there. I will say it sucks that the
league health and safety protocols once again places like a role in Paul George being
out, and I'm hoping I don't think that we don't think the Clippers would
have gone far anyway, unless you really believe that Klai was going to come
back up, which I don't. I don't buy that he would have.
Then again, in the last podcast, I said he was more likely to
come back than Ben's events, and look how that age pretty poorly. I
just hope it doesn't happen like throughout the playoffs. Yeah, there's because that
would just suck. It would suck for so many reasons other than basketball,
obviously, if that's but I'm just hoping that we don't see that. Where
did you want to start with these two series? Though? Let's start in
the East. We've got the one seed Miami Heat against the eight seed and
Lettahawks, and my initial thoughts here are that this is a pretty lopside of
the series. I think Trey Young is one of those players who can very
much completely carry a team to the point that he could feasibly win a series
single handedly against just about anyone. I'm not sure that there's a better player
in the NBA right now at figuring out what a defense is doing and I
making those in game adjustments on his own and completely torching that same scheme in
the second half in a way that can't be adjusted to as a counter adjustment
by that same defense. That said, if you're putting together a team that
can stop Trey Young, you want a great point of attack defender who can
also switch and body up against bigger players on those switches. You want a
great wing stopper who can switch on to Trey Young and stick with him.
And you want a great defensive big with mobility. Well, Kyle Lowry,
Jimmy Butler and Bam Onabaio. I don't think there's a single better team in
the NBA that is designed to stop Trey Young more than the Miami Heat are.
Yeah, maybe Toronto might come close. That would be the only other
team that I don't think they have the like super switchable, defensively overpowering big
I feel because Bam is mobile enough to play that drop coverage and guard both
the lab and trace floaters, and that's what Toronto doesn't have. So I
this feels like the nightmare out of I won't tolerate it fair. This feels
like the nightmare matchup for a last I do agree, And it doesn't help
that Atlanta has been trashed on defense for a lot of this year, especially
with the live ball issues that they've had. We also have to see John
Collins is dealing with a right foot injury. I actually don't know he would
certainly help as an offensive safety valve. I don't really know what he would
add to this series for them that much. Now. Clint Cappella is dealing
with the left knee issue as we're recording this. We know nothing about that
other than the Hawks are optimistic that it's not serious. That could mean it
feels like he'll miss at least a few games though, And ultimately I do
think I mean, you named it with the defensive because like the way that
Miami's defense matches up with Trey Young, and it's just the only like Zemblin
some hope you would have is that because the heat switched so much, like
can he punish them in any way forwarder? So he can't because BAM exists.
And that's just BAM might be even more important than the other two because
of what you can't do against him. And so I do think that increases
the important substantially of like a Kevin Hurder or Bogdan Bogdanovitch, guys who you
now need to probably make more plays offensively but the Heat just have so so
many other talented defenders on their team. You're just you're gonna get to a
point where they take away like not just the Hawks like primary weapon, but
like their first, second, and third options on any given play, and
that's terrifying. I guess if there is like a reason for optimism, I
don't know that Miami is their offensive numbers on the season, We're fine,
but we have so little data on the Bam, Jimmy Butler, Kyle Lowry
pairing and with Butler and Bam but not really taking threes or long range jumpers
at all, that he'd actually have a below average offense. When all three
of them are on the court together, their defense is so incredible that it
doesn't matter. They are very reliant though, or have been on some killer
bench units. And then I think this is where the importance of Tyler hero
comes into play for them. People can quibble, argue, hate his shot
selection, and he does take some pretty bad shots, but a lot of
the times it just feels like those are the shots he almost has to take
because when he's on the floor sometimes it shrinks like he might he probably has
more room to operate when he doesn't have both Bam and Jimmy on the court.
And so if if there's a saving grace for Atlanta, if you can
get your defense set, maybe that gives you a fighting chance. But just
like you've been so bad in that regard all year, and without Capella it
probably gets even harder. I really do like him Yeko kunglu though, and
he great instincts around the basket, and this is he's someone who could help
a lot in this series. It's just you start to run out of if
Clint Capella is not available in Collins isn't available, Oh we're out of Bigshi
Gorgi Jang Like no, that that's not the answer. That is definitely not
the answer. I think the offensive concerns get mollified a little bit. If
Atlanta has a consistent secondary shot creator, it doesn't I think Bogdanovich is the
natural pick here as the X factor for the Hawks simply because he can fill
that role. We saw him fill it in the second half against the Cavaliers,
and he has been pretty good well from what I've seen, and then
the numbers will back this up. He's been really good since the Collins,
Yes, and he's got the pull up jumpers, and he can create for
himself, but you don't want him doing that over the course of a full
game, much less a full series. And even when he does, it's
not really done in a way that involves everyone else. And if you're not
having everyone clicking on all cylinders, you need Trey. And if you're taking
Trey out of the game, what's the answer here? So I struggled to
come up with an offensive strategy for Atlanta that's going to yield enough points even
against a diminished Miami offense. They've I don't I don't even know if this
helps, because you're ultimately not going to win this series by winning the minutes
Trey Young doesn't play. But Bogey the offense has been great when he plays
without Trey, and the pairing between him and Delan Right just seems to work.
And so the Delan Right minutes against Cleveland twenty four, I think he
might as well have been a plus eighty because Nate McMillan should not have taken
him out of the game in the second half and allowed Cleveland to come back
in Yeah. So, and the pairing between him and Bogie has just worked
when those two are on the court without Trey Young. I actually think I
haven't checked the numbers a little bit. They've they've a nile aided opponents during
that playing time. So that helps in the sense that if you can tread
water without Trey Young, I still don't know how to figure out the tray
Young minutes, especially when the two most familiar threats for him at the five
position right now might not be playing. I know he him and on Yeko
Come will be fine, but like there's a difference with the connection with Kinn
Capella and then also John Collins. One of the things that only people have
talked about enough is when you had Capella, he couldn't be the primary screener
all the time, and he was build as this like just screen and dive
guy. He does so much more whether it's relocated, he's hitting threes,
like he has this little bit of a floor game there. So they will
miss that. That would have been another element at least that made their offense
more dynamic. Even if you don't love the fit with him and Capella on
the court at the same time, I just I wish I had an argument
that would make me say this is more than a heat sweep where he gentle
like a gentleman sweep. But let's I think like Tray is good enough that
he might just be impervious to any defensive efforts at this point in a seven
game series, because he is so good at making those in game adjustments.
So I think the case you can make is that he has a couple of
forty pieces in his back and steals a few games. And look, it
helps that they do take care of some of the low hanging fruit on offense
where it's you know, no one turns the ball over less frequently. They
do get to the foul line at a pretty good clip, although I don't
know how much losing their two primary bigs is gonna hurt that for them.
You did you hit it right on the head with the secondary creator stuff though,
And is this like a could this be like a Gallows series? Because
he likes to operate at such a slow pace and Miami wants to slow things
down for you when you're in the I mean, they want to be disruptive,
obviously, but there I feel like a Gallows series though, is like
a couple of twelve point halves, Like we're not going to see a thirty
five point Gallinari game. I feel like when I'm watching Gallinari, I'm seeing
like twenty five years into the future of Luca's career. They didn't have the
same trajectories, but like Gallo right now is with a forty year old Luke
over, I can kind of see that. But also like this, even
if the tempo suits Danilo Gallinari in the series, I don't think the matchups
do because he's usually at his best. Yeah, yeah, he's he's usually
at his best in offense. But he's like on a switch posting up a
smaller guy. Okay, Like, do you really want to run that against
Kyle Lowry or PJ Tucker? No? Probably not. I So is there
a chance? Well, let me ask you this question. Game, the
game is close, what is a man's closing you? It's probably it's probably
Trey Murder. Oh okay, I think Trey Hurder, Bogdanovich, Gallo,
and Capella if he's available, because you just you need the offensive options against
this Miami team. I'm so I'm so low on DeAndre Hunter right now.
Look he blew by Mantras Harrold in that first playing game. Okay, amazing,
truly astounding. Is there any scenario and if Capella is not available,
what are the obviously you'll congle with that if you want to play with big,
What are the chances that everything we talked about where it's the Hawksters like
we need to lean in the offense, so we're gonna go nuclear, and
like, this is Gallow at the five and it's not. This is not
something I'm basing off of anything that I've seen, because I think I've seen
Gallo play the five like once, if at all, And I actually feel
like I'm dreaming that up right now that that ever happened this season, we're
gonna see some Gallo PJ. Tucker five minutes. That would be something I
think that hinges on both Collins and Capella not being available well, And I
guess in which case that's really not nuclear. It's hey, we prefer this
too. I mean, they could break it. They could bust out Jalen
Johnson too, if they wanted to. I hope they do. Look,
I'm just saying this is clearly a large enough sample size. Four six possessions
with gallow at center this season, and the Hawks are a plus twelve point
six points per one hundred possessions with a one thirty two points answer, don
who is your Oh the other thing I wanted to ask you is who's Well,
let's let's go to the X factors first. So who's your X factor
for a Glanta? You have Bogy? Yeah, it's got to be Bog.
I think you can make a case for Delon right, but probably less
so in a series that you have to find offense. Mine's bogey too.
I did force some variability later on the podcast. I don't feel about doing
bad about doing that. However, I will say if you had to pick
someone else, DeAndre Hunter's kind of next factor here, because you need DeAndre
Hunter to be at the very least better defensively overall, even if you're not
worried about Miami's half court offense. Just like you just lost Clink Capella,
is on Yaka Conglu now your best defender on the team right now or in
your rotation or Delan right. Sorry, I feel like there's a lot of
five or Jail and Johnson at the five, with Gallo at the four and
bench Hunter. Put the fact my point is the fact that you just didn't
have Hunter in your closing lineup. That's a pretty big issue. Yeah,
it is. There are a lot of pretty big issues in this series.
Here. Let me give you my X factor from I already gave you my
EX factor from Miami, so let me give it to you. I think
it's Tyler Hero just because of the limitations I mentioned that we've seen on the
half court offense so far. What's really interesting and part of this has been
where major part of this has been health. We just don't have a ton
of data on what he looks like playing beside Miami's three stars. And is
that something when you get into close games in the playoffs? Are you going
to put Tyler Hero alongside three of them? Are you so worried about him
being exploited on defense that you don't play him? And are the Hawks a
team like can they even do that like having bogies? Is that on offense?
If we know they're not worried about Trey Young and Miami's to do things
like off ball switching, that's just going to make it so that you really
can't maybe go after Tylor Hero, but perhaps they can be like that's something
that they can go after if Miami goes to that unit where they've done for
sub two fifty possessions this season. I just looked it up, and it's
been a disaster. By the way, my pick is also a hero for
largely the same reasons. I'll add two big picture thoughts. One is that
the criticisms that he receives for taking so many difficult shots I think are just
a little off base in general, as they are for a lot of players
who take tough shots. No NBA offense generates easy looks. Every time down
the floor. Someone has to take those shots. If he's good at them,
he should be taking them. Ideally, he gets easier looks as his
career continues to develop, but the fact that he's already comfortable taking and making
those is an unmitigated positive to me. And the second point is he's up
for a max contract extension soon. We've talked about that before on previous episodes,
and so far we have a two year postseason sample. In twenty twenty
he went nuclear, that was in the bubble. In twenty twenty one,
he couldn't hit anything in that first round loss, thirty one point six percent
from the field, thirty one point six percent from three, and he did
make all his free throws, but that's not saying too much when he only
took I believe seven of them. So where is he going to fall on
that postseason spectrum as he continues to develop. So even beyond this individual series,
I think it. I think it's really important for Miami in general that
he gets off to a good start. What's your predition for this series?
Eaton four? So I don't even think. I don't even think Tray can
steal a game against this specific defense. The follow up questions to that is,
one, do you see Victor Ladipo making an impact here at all?
Or do you think that this money he's been like, oh, like his
some of the shooting splits have been really good over the past however long it's
been. I thought about him as an X factor. It just doesn't look
good though right now, Like I just I don't see that explosion. I
don't see him creating open looks. So I struggled to see that happening in
the playoffs in particular. Yeah, it was just a thought. He's like
I think over I can't remember what the filters where he was shooting like an
astronomical percentage from the floor, But the team stats are not great. The
Heat are their half caller. Offense is barely league average when he's on the
court this season, and he hasn't even played through and they're being outscored by
three point nine points per one hundred possessions over on the offense than the thirteenth
percent tile when he plays overall. The follow up the hero by the way,
really quickly. It's not like he's looking off of Jimmy Butler and Kyle
Lowry. For all these looks, either there are a lot of lineups where
neither of them are in there, or he's with one of them, and
that just changes the context of his offense. I was gonna ask you who
you thought was more likely to get sweat since you didn't do this the podcast
with me, the Bulls or the Hawks. But I'm guessing you think it's
the Hawks over the Bulls. I think it's the Hawks. I'm going to
say Heat and five and maybe the concert. Maybe everything we just talked about
with their offense won't matter. Bam was on fire to finish the season.
Miami just feels like they weren't last year. But this just feels like we
said this at the beginning of the season. Was almost one of our concerns
was I think he's just a postseason team. Are they going to be on
cruise control throughout the regular season? And their defense is just it's hell fire,
And so I do think Trey's good enough to get you a game,
and I like what I've seen from Bogie enough to where I just feel like,
okay, maybe, but even Miami's bench has been so good this year,
So perhaps that means I didn't predict a sweep for anyone. So I'll
change my bucks in four heat and five that those are my new adjusted pigs.
Am I allowed to wear a Hawks hat on another episode at this point
or did I lose that privilege. I don't know why you're not wearing one
during this episode for anyone who's watching on YouTube. I thought it would be
weird to be wearing it when I made that prediction. That's fair enough.
Well, they've win a game, we'll have a record immediately after on whatever
that game is. Secret wear your Hawks at fair enough. Pelicans and Sons,
I'm not sure anyone would have predicted the Pelicans would be here. No
Zion started the season three and sixteen. Kudos to them for they got a
little bit lucky in the sense that they did get to go up against his
Clippers team with al Paul George and then still almost blew their lead. What
do you make of this series? Though? It's almost I struggled to make
a case for Atlanta against Miami. I don't really have leads against me.
I have no case. I have no case at all. Like this New
Orleans team super fun. Kudos to them for making it through the playing tournament.
I'm really glad that that six seasons in brandon Ingroom gets to experience true
postseason basketball. Jose Alvarado is an absolute joy to watch, just the energy
with which he plays as an example to every young player out there who's trying
to make a roster trying to carve out a bigger role. Herb Jones like,
if you're not watching him when he plays defense, you're missing out on
opportunities to learn things. Trey Murphy the third, the gumption he's shown in
big moments. CJ McCollum so smooth when he's rolling on offense. This whole
team is really really fun to watch and is dangerous. But the Suns are
a perfect basketball team, or as close as you can come to being a
perfect basketball team with a salary cap in place. I don't know what their
weakness is, and I'll spoil everything right now by saying that they're like my
unquestioned title pick. It's gonna take big time injuries to shift them off.
That course, that's not spicy when I picked them in the preseason. I'm
not trying to be spicy. I'm gonna spoil my answer here. Oh they're
they're they're looking pretty good right now with no Lucas. That's what's gonna happen.
This is this is gonna be the true asterisk title. Utah is gonna
win because every star is gonna get hurt. I was actually thinking, what
the hell everyone's wondering, what's gonna happen in Utah. Regardless what happens in
Utah, Luca doesn't play, may still lose this. So the Pelicans with
Zion are going to be terrifying if they can get the next season. I
don't I don't like the way that they match up against Phoenix. It's it's
pretty clear too that he's not playing this postseason, right yeah. I mean
we know that he wants to and that the Pelicans don't want him to,
and I think it's a good thing that he wants to play. I also
don't think it's a bad thing that the Pelicans aren't letting him play. I
do think that they've probably given him more cart blonds than they should. Within
the organization. It sounds like or at least his family or his representatives,
whoever they are, but they're prioritizing the long term future. And there's you
know, when you look at Zion, he's just I don't want to boil
him down to just saying he's a specimen, but he's a human anomaly and
there could be a concern that his prime is going to be shorter than normal
anyway, So we're not going to risk any injury when he's actually like injured
if he's if we don't think he's a hundred percenter, we just don't want
him ramping it up in fucking mid April. And so I totally understand both
ways. He would obviously be a big help in any series. I just
don't look. I do think New Orleans can do some interesting things against the
Suns when they're on offense. She's looking at with c McCollum and branding or
can do. But Phoenix has like the defenders to really get after them and
doesn't have to go to the extremes that the Clippers did at going after Ingram
McCollum. But they also could because as we just saw, like you either
need Trey Murphy the third who came in and played some big minutes, or
you're gonna need Jose Alvarado to hit more of his threes, Like you need
more of your supporting cast to make these teams pay if they're gonna play brandon
Ingram and mccaum aggressively. But again, if you just look at the Suns
personnel, they can play straight up if they want to, or with simple
switching. The other thing that I thought about was, Okay, what if
New Orleans just went to the downsized look where they've gone from place. I
think that's a disaster. Okay, well, you're still worried out of my
mouth now? Is Jackson as Jonas Valentcutis. I don't like to look at
them together, even though the Pelicans have gotten like some minutes out of them.
It made sense against the Clippers because the Clippers forced the hand and Larry
nance Juior is playing so well, but Phoenix like has just like destroyed the
Clippers themselves when they downsized, and so you're playing into that. I do
think Larry NaNs junior at the five is different from having is it Robert Covington
or Marcus Morris Senior or Batune wherever you want to consider it. I do
think that's different. And if if things aren't going well, I could see
them trying that, Like DeAndre Ayton just doesn't move like a conventional big,
so I don't know that that even works well. Again, I could see
the Pelicans putting up actual points on the Suns, but I also don't know
how they're going to be built to defend Phoenix. Your best chance to defend
Phoenix might actually be going small because I don't know what the Jackson Hayes Valentutis
front court gives you on defense there. Maybe his athleticism, just him straight
up by him going up against Eton, that's something you want to see.
So I just struggled to see I would like to see, is what I'm
getting out. I want to see New Orleans get weird in this series.
We've already seen that, Like they prefer Josie Alvarado over DeVante Graham, and
I don't think that they should be afraid to try some of the person of
your stuff, like Loo Glaronishre's under contract for next season. Why don't you
see what happens if you're going to match him straight up against Eton so or
at least like, can we go to Jackson Hayes Larnt Jr. A little
something like that, just let's get a little bit weird. I agree about
getting weird. I'm terrified of downsizing in this series though, because there is
not a point guard in NBA history who has been better at getting the ball
to big men than Chris Paul and DeAndre Ayton. When he is the true
big man on the floor, he looks like David Robinson out there sometimes,
like he is so good at capitalizing on a size advantage, and that pair
together against a young Pelicans team foul trouble out the wazoo. I just I
don't see any solution to guarding without one big on the floor. So if
you want it to be Jackson Hayes and then you pair him with Larry Nance,
sure like go for that. Like as you said, let's get weird.
But I don't think going like truly small against this Phoenix team as a
recipe for anything other than obliteration. Yeah, I guess I just don't.
And look the numbers offensively with Jacksonays and your sound tunists have been great in
New Orleans. Is like plus five per hundred possessions with those two, I
just don't. I don't like you say, downsizing to Larry naz Gond be
a disaster. I like their chances defensively. If it's like Larry nance Tramer
for you, the third Herb Jones, McCallum and Ingram go without a point.
You still have a good bit of length there. But that's it.
That's a thirty fifteen game for eight Aiden waiting to happen. Okay, well,
what what is so different? So you just trust Jackson Hayes to defend
DeAndre and not much more than that. A yes, Yeah, I mean
I don't think that you're guarding him well regardless in this series. But I
do think that like the chaos that Hayes can bring means that there might be
more disruptive plays. And just the size Aiden Aiden does not capitalize against bigger
players like he does against smaller ones. I think that much is undeniable based
on what he's done throughout the season. I guess you might be just higher
on Jackson Hayes than I am, or else will hire. Oh, I'm
definitely not on defense than I am. I am higher on Jackson Hayes's size.
There's do we just get into X factors here? Like I don't even
what this is one of those like where the talent disparity is so wide.
New Orleans is fun and scrappy and has interesting pieces, but like, whoo,
who are the five best players in this series? Devin Booker, Chris
Paul. I think probably McCollum and Ingram are both in the top five.
You would have them both above Bridges and Aden. I would not both,
but Aden or Bridges would be the other one I'd probably lean towards. I
still think McAll Bridges is more valuable to the Suns than DeAndre and there if
you wanted to say that, I mean, Ingram has to be in there
when you're looking at what the choices are. And McCollum has been great for
New Orleans on offense. He gives you someone to attack on defense, clearly
the Clippers did a good job of that, So I mean, and then
we still haven't even mentioned Cameron Johnson and Jay Crowder, but like those are
not you know, they to me, I think it's argument with the Clippers
of the Pelicans have two of the top five players in this series. I
just know that that that's the proper argument for disparity. Now if you go
in, who's the pelicans third best player versus the Sun's third best, well,
that's where I was going with it. Yeah, that's the talent gap
there is is absurd And I'm just like, what happens to your Ingram and
McCollum or like all of a sudden, I mean, I guess the Clippers
they've run so much extreme stuff and they have a great like a bunch of
great defenders on there. But you now you're going up against the Sun's team
that has Jay Crowder and Michael Bridges and like if you get by people like
Deandret and is still just going to be right there. And look, by
the way, if you down size against the Suns and they decide maybe Etan's
taking a breather and the don't want to play Javan mcgeel, like, they
just have Tory Craig sitting there. And that's Tory Craig who hits threes when
he played whenever he puts on the Sun's jersey, like he's just gonna shoot
a trillion percent from three. So I think I stand by Phoenix basically being
a perfect team. Yeah, so my concerns with Phoenix would be we should
probably get into there. It might be more than able to get in their
overarching title stock. I do wonder if, like the absence of rim pressure
could hurt them a little bit. I think they're better set up to do
that based off what we've seen from Eton during that stretch without Chris Paul.
They do have Javal McGee is like sort of athletic rim runner. And you
will never get me just looking at like how offenses relied on a Kawai and
a Paul George when they were healthy and it was fine. I can't get
up in arms about, oh they don't get to the rim enough or I'd
like to see him get to the foul line more. I think what might
be the bigger conser might And this is just like spinning hairs. They were
fourteens in defensive rebounding rate this year. We did see last year against the
Bucks they gave up it was thirty plus points in transition and second chance points
opportunities per game during the finals, that's a lot. But they have Javal
McGhee. Now I'm gonna say he would have made the difference in that finals
thing, but it's like you, you know, Dario Sarich, even if
he was healthy for the I think they played like three minutes mysteries was something
ridiculous, like he wouldn't have done much there. So they are. They
are as close to basketball infallibility as we have right now in the league.
I don't. I do think a healthy Warriors team is built to disrupt their
offense a lot more than I think people have been talking about. But even
then, it's like Golden States sort of shock creation deficit outside of Stephen Jordan
Pool does make things a little touch and go there. So look, I
pick Phoenix when the title of the preseason, I would not walk that back.
I'm gonna pose this to you right now though, over under of I'm
gonna say three point five games that the Suns lose to get out of the
West. Are you taking me over the I think this is a sweep,
So wow, I'm gonna take the under. That's gutsy because if they but
then again, if so, if they're gonna win this series. I'm gonna
I look up and down the standings and I just I fail to see who
matches up well with this team, because with Steph hobbled, I don't think
Golden State gets past Denver. I wait to see Steph play before we just
assume that he's out, like how many he's come back from injuries before.
If we're specifically saying that he's not even going to play thirty minutes in game
one, then he's hobbled. That could just be more of like a conditioning
issue, or maybe it's gamesmanship. That could be it too. So I
look, I don't know if I would take the under that was my own
one, I don't have to make a pick. I'd probably take the under
still because you're gonna go up against either the Mavericks or the Jazz in round
two and like neither of them, that could be a sweep. Also,
so yeah, I'll take the under on that too. I'll take the under.
Let's just go with that. High on Phoenix, apparently, who's your
X factor for the Pelicans in this series, Adam Silver? Like maybe he
rigs it in their favor. Is Zion just coming back right, something like
that. No, I mean, it's it's hard to pick an X factor
for either of these because it feels like the most lopsided of the first series.
So like, who else the Pelicans could truly put them over the edge?
Are we gonna say, like if I go with Jose Alvarado here,
who probably has like the most variability, Like if he's knocking down threes,
if he's still playing with that energy and impact, if he's disrupting Chris Paul
for the full length of the cord and somehow throwing him off his rhythm,
is that enough? It's not enough, But I think that that makes the
series like exponentially more interesting to where oh maybe this goes. That's fair,
That's fair. Okay, So if if we're approaching it from an interest perspective,
not a Pelicans winning the series perspective, then I think Alvarado's the pic
I have. I'll just go with Tray Murvy the third for the sake of
variety here. And I also do think they need We mentioned this at the
top of the podcast, the Pelicans need like CJ. McCom was a perfect
fit. But if you're gonna go up against teams that can either disrupt or
commit so much attention to both he and brandon Ingram. You need players on
your team to make those decisions pay when they're going to be open. I
think by playing Traymer for the third, who at least should functionally help you
on defense relative to your other options that aren't Herb Jones for the most part,
if you have him out there, he was the best. He shot
forty three point eight percent from deep when he entered the Pelicans rotation for good
and it was like almost twenty games hit big shots in that playing game.
That's something that I think can keep the pressure on the defense, and it
might if I'd probably feel differently if it wasn't Phoenix that they were playing,
because I just feel like the Suns are built to navigate whatever at this point.
That would be my pick thought. And maybe he also having him and
Herb Jones, does that inspire you to try out different front court combinations or
no point guard more no point guard combinations where Davante Graham isn't playing, Jose
Alvarado wasn't playing, and you have McCullum and Anger him and then it's Herb
Jones and tray Murviy. The third then you felt you're five. I would
just go with Larry Nance Jr. For the sake of backing up my own
argument from before, but going with Jackson Hazer Bounty this day. So I
don't mean to disrespect the Pelicans here and just assume that they can't get a
game. This is more about how high I am on the Suns, and
I actually do think when you look at New Orleans personnel, if you can
look at a lot of their transition defense this season, they overachieved on that
end of the floor after their three and sixteen start obviously, so I would
view this as a very encouraging season from New Orleans given everything that happened no
Zi on their start and the fact that they just got I mean, we
don't know how the negotiations went down, but Larry Nance Junior in the CJ.
McCollum trade and then also by the way, Robert Covington in the Norman
Powell trade, like these have shades of Oh Danny Green went to Toronto with
the Kawhi Leonard trade. Just incredible that both those teams were able to get
two, like two Blazers for the modest prices that they ended up paying for
them. The other thing here that's great for New Orleans is just the experience,
because that should not be overlooked. Even if it's just a four games
weep and none of the games are particularly competitive, that's super valuable experience for
a young team that not all the primary pieces have been here before and is
expected to enjoy continuity. Plus the addition of someone like Zion Williamson next year.
I mean that is it is a monumental help two guys like Herb Jones
and Trey Murphy and Jose Alvarado and Brandon Ingram as well, because he hasn't
been on this stage. It would and I don't want to make it about
the discourse. That's where it comes in. And you miss Zion Williamson not
just because of what he does for your product, but this would have been
just to get the experience there. I will also say the New Orleans crowd
during that playing game one of the best New Orleans crowds that I've fantastic quite
sometimes, So that'll be fun. And the other thing about New Orleans,
I don't want to do the post mortum on their season right now, Like
if you just put and I know they have your ownest sound tunis. I
know they have Jackson Hayes and they have larn Nance Jr. If you just
put like an elite rim protector on this team, the West is incredibly deep,
but I would probably be ready to pick them as a top four team
in the West next season. Wow, I'm not talking about it. I'm
not saying it needs to be Miles, is it? Yeah? I think
so because Phoenix isn't going anywhere. The Grizzlies, the Mavericks are always going
to be good with Luca, the Warriors are still gonna out of their cores.
A lot of good teams in the West. Yeah, we've also seen
though that there's don't be a lot of hit. The Cliffers should have Georgia
and Kauai should have. We've been saying that since they signed George and Kwai
though, and I'm still saying should so. Look, I would, It
depends on the quality of ritten might be the Jazz this year. You sound
like Danny Ainge at his next if he ever has a press to part time
CEO wherever he is there. So yeah, it's suns and four for me.
Who's your ex factor for the Sons campaign? Because I want to see
if he and repeat the heroics that we saw during the run through the Western
Conference last year when he just seemingly couldn't miss, got to the rim at
will and all that. And if he can provide valuable minutes or if he's
on the floor often enough because these games aren't close, then you're buying rest
for Chris Paul and Devin Booker for what is going to be a long playoff
run. Mine's going to be JaVale McGee just because, if anything, it's
like looking back, they could have probably used him in last year's finals.
And if the Pelicans are going to play at least one big all the time,
you need someone reliable behind DeAndre and to take those minutes, and he
should against this team, help you on the defensive glass a lot. So
yeah, that's my that's my X factor there to eat a lot of Crow
and New Orleans wins. If I mean if New Rows wins, that's one
of the biggest upsets in playoff history, is it not. Yes, I'm
trying to think back to where like the Weebili Warriors beating the Mavericks, but
the Mavericks were not the juggernaut that these Suns are right, I mean,
the Sun's just had this good season. So who the Warriors faced in the
first round in twenty and sixteen? Was it? Was it Anthony Davis is
Pelicans? Was that the year that he made that like quarter three with his
eyes closed to force overtime in Game one and they won that one? It
was not because they beat the Rockets in the first round that year, but
off and yeah, so I don't And Houston was I mean, Houston was
the eight seed that year. I don't know if that would would that account
is the biggest upset in playoff history. They had James hard and Dwight Howard
and Bev's and a thirty three d probably probably not just because of the talent
on that roster. Yeah, I guess the Pelicans Pelicans don't have it would
whatever be one of the biggest upsets in playoff history. I don't think the
Pelicans are going anywhere. They're gonna get Zion back, And like I said,
I don't know if they would be as enthralled they just went out.
They have you on his mound Tues, they have Jackson Hayes. Maybe they
don't want to go like two, you know, full bore after another big
but I would be all over any not I know, not Rudy Gobert.
Let let me back clear, but like if Miles Turner is still available in
Indiana, I don't I'm not opposed to like, yeah, okay, you
have. That's no one on this roster is gonna preclude me. Is what
I'm getting at from chasing any other body that I think is the quintessential fit
for Zion c J Herb Jones and Brandon Ingram. You just you slot just
a really good rim protector on that team. Not Mason Plumly, Charlote Orde
Fins know what I'm talking about. So they're They're a top four team in
the West. That would be my recklessly optimistic stance on the Pelicans. You're
not going to back off. I respect it, so we have agree with
it, but I respect it. You have heat and you have two sweeps
here going to sleep. I'm giving the Hawks a game against the Heat.
I'm going to say that the Sun's sweep. Thank you everyone for listening to
this. We hope you enjoy these super deep playoff dives. We will be
back talking to you in a few days after we've digested some playoff action.
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out to one the only is still playoff bound, the mother of all fucking
X factors and during the twenty twenty two postseason Frank Thille team