It is time though, to go out to the KA commis pay of the
hot line, to bring on our favorite guy and go inside the numbers.
No, inside the number is with Ryan Michael. Always love having Ryan on
the show. Ryan the contributor columnist at the Pro Football Hall of Fame and
the unofficial official utofficial statistician here at Broncos Country. Tonight, Ryan, how
you doing tonight? Well, then, Nick, how are you guys?
Yeah? Doing pretty well. These guys are both wearing glasses now, and
I didn't get the memo, so I feel a lot less intelligent. But
after we get a chance to talk to you, I will be completely caught
up on all things intellectual. I will walk around quoting statistics with my pinky
raised as I as I take drinks out of a mug. I will do
my best, but I myself am not wearing glasses, so I might fall
short tonight. Well. You know what, I don't even know if we
could trust this data anymore. I'm just saying, if you put out some
good stuff out there on Twitter. I saw even Will Lut's got a chance
to repost some of it. We're looking for some positive statistics. You know,
we've been talking a lot of a lot of negative things to said the
other what's the positives to testing will that's highest field goal percentage in Broncos history
at eight eight point two percent, surpassing Jason Elamino three at oh seven and
one? What else do you have for us? Not a bad year?
So yeah, and that's really been the idea, right. I always find
that the period between the beginning of free agency and the start of the draft,
it's I get a little impatient, like, what is there really to
talk about? Because if I have to read another mock draft, if I'm
going to pull the hair out of my head. I don't think you need.
I don't think you need any more than one mock draft. Yes,
So what I did was I did a dig inside the numbers to really give
a little bit of spotlight and love to guys who are already in the building,
already in our rosters. So in no particular order, some of this
is trivia, some of this is really efficiency on the field. But wanted
to acknowledge our guys for what they've been able to do. So I'll start
with Portland Sutton and right now he's sitting at four thy two hundred and fifty
nine receiving yards as a Bronco. That means he's oney one hundred three yards
away from moving from certain place into surpassing Emmanuel Sanders in tenth place. Top
ten all time in receiving, especially for a franchise as historic as the Broncos,
is no small feat. So I'll be rooting for him to get as
many yards as humanly possible. From an efficiency standpoint, Quarterbacks mostly Rust last
year produced a one hundred and twenty point two passer rating when targeting sudden.
So that included two perfect passer rating games, right, because one hundred and
fifty eight point three is the highest the formula will permit. So there was
a one to fifty eight point three game in October against Green Bay, another
one fifty eight point three in November against Minnesota, and a one to fifty
six point two in December against LA So with that being said, obviously we
look at call the sudden and he's a wide receiver, but he can't throw
the balls himself. We don't know what the Bronco is going to do at
the quarterback position, but the idea is that they're going to bring someone in.
But the guy who is QB one at the moment is Jared Stidham.
As things are currently constructed, What did we as Broncos fans expect for from
Jarred Stidham if he does emerge the starting quarterback this season? What kind of
stats can we are we looking at? Well? I think the first question
we have to ask ourselves is how are we going to replace Russell Wilson?
And I understand that the perception of how well he played last year there's a
bit of a spectrum to that where there are some people I would consider myself
on this end of the spectrum. I was impressed with what he was able
to do given the situation, and there are the people who felt that he
fell short, didn't live up to his contract. What I can tell you
is this, he threw twenty six touchdown passes in fifteen games and his five
point eight percent touchdown percentage was number one in the AFC Patrick Mahomes through twenty
seven and sixteen games, he had a four point five percent touchdown pass percentage
that was good for fifteenth in the NFL. So you're looking at a guy
who produced Mahomes level touchdown passes, a guy who led the NFL in fourth
quarter comebacks, a guy who finished eighth and passer ratings. So ask yourself,
who is going to be putting up Patrick Mahomes level touchdown passes, leaving
the league in fourth quarter comebacks and finishing top ten inefficiency as a passer.
Whether it's Jared Stidham, whether it's anybody we draft, those are going to
be some pretty big shoes to fill. So looking at Jared, we have
a one hundred and ninety seven attempt sample size, not a very big sample
size, it's also not nothing. So what we've seen so far in his
career a fifty nine point four percent completion percentage that's low, a four point
one percent touchdown pass percentage unremarkable, an equal four point one percent interception percentage
that's pretty bad, and a seven point two yard per attempt average that's around
league average. So if we're going to channel the optimism that you bring to
the table, nick On, what I did was I adjusted his numbers and
say he moves his completion percentage up to sixty three and a half percent,
Say his touchdown pass percentage moves up to four point three. Say he cuts
down on the pick significantly two point five percent interception percentage maintains that seven point
two yards per attempt average. What you'd be looking at is about thirty six
hundred yards through the year, twenty two touchdowns, thirteen picks, and eighty
eight point eight passer rating, which would have been good for twenty first in
the league last year. Essentially, you'd be looking at Derek Carr from twenty
twenty two right he had thirty five twenty two in terms of yards, twenty
four touchdowns, fourteen picks, and an eighty six point three passer rating.
I think that's about the ceiling of a leak what we can expect from Jared
Sstadam Misson starts all seventeen games. But is it I mean, is there
something to be said for continuity? You're having continuity on both sides of the
football, isn't Isn't there as an expected I don't know, production boost from
both sides the ball, and that could theoretically lead to more wins even if
those aren't eye popping numbers. I think it could be, and I think
that we're going to see that hopefully as far as the team as a whole,
because we're going to be entering in year two of the Sean Payton regime.
So I expect on offense, we're going to see a little bit more
of a Sean Payton system. Right, So we're talking short to intermediate pass
game, timing, rhythm, quick relief, sack avoidance, which is truly
a skill. It's something that Drew Brees was incredibly proficient at. It's not
something that Jared Sidham has done well in his brief limited time. I'm a
little bit more excited to see what Vance Joseph is able to do on the
defensive side of the ball with that continuity, because I look at coach Joseph
as a guy who high football IQ. He's a player's coach. He's a
guy who I think has had the misfortune in his career, whether as a
DC or a positional coach, He's been paired with some pretty tough rosters,
but when he's had support around him, when he's had good players to work
with, the twenty eleven Houston Texans finished fourth in points surrendered, the twenty
twelve Texans finished ninety. When he was coaching the DB's in Cincinnati in twenty
fifteen, they finished second in the league in scoring. So I think with
Vance Joseph getting the opportunity to implement his system and kind of build upon that
continuity. I think that we're going to see a significant jump on the defensive
side of the ball. Last year, the Denver Broncos d didn't do too
well against the run. And obviously we can go back to the game against
Miami and say, well, those those particular numbers from that game skewed everything
after. But the Broncos historically have had issues slowing down the raiders. Now
they made somewhat of a roster adjustment the season, bringing over Foreman, saying
to Malcolm Roach, how does his presence on the D line changes how the
Broncos play against the run this season? For me personally, the signing of
Malcolm is my favorite free agent signing move to Denver may during the offseason.
And per Pro Football Focus, we're talking about a guy who finished last year
ranked number one in the NFL amongst interior defensive linemen and runs operate at seventeen
point four percent. And if you look at the Saints defense as a whole
last year, one of the things that they were good was slowing down the
run. They finished tie for fourth in the league and rushing touchdowns allowed.
They only gave up ten and eighth in the league in rushing exp which is
an efficiency metric per Pro Football Reference. So I look to Denver. We
finished deadlinet giving up five yards per carry on the ground, so we were
thirty second, but thirty second by a considerable margin. I think plugging Malcolm
into the d line is going to do tremendous benefits to the Broncos run defense
this year. Yeah, and they need that. I mean a lot of
that rushing was from the disaster against Miami last year, but still even even
factoring out that game, the numbers were still not good at all across the
board. You know, one of the things that I think we haven't really
talked about is the impact that Josh Reynolds is going to have on this offense.
You know, with what he brings to the table, the experience in
a successful offense up there in Detroit and what he was able to do,
how big an impact do you think he can have in his first year in
Denver. He's a fantastic signing for the Broncos. I mean, we're talking
about a guy who last year part of an explosive offense, finished second on
the Lions. In terms of receptions, he had forty receiving yards six to
eight when he led Detroit with fifteen point two yards per reception. So if
you look at the league in totality, factoring in the postseason, he actually
finished with fifteen point four yards perception for eleventh in the NFL and months wide
receivers. So when you consider how competitive that position is, he's definitely a
deep game passing threat that's going to open up and expand things for whoever the
Broncos plug into the QB one spot. Now I have a thing as crossed
for brock Bauers, but I know statistically speaking, tight ends don't really go
that high as twelve in the draft. But if the Broncos don't go in
that direction and they don't pick up a tight end, what wi guy on
the roster currently on the roster right now could step up and we can see
maybe not just his impact but his overall receptions change for the team. I
think that Adam Trautman has the potential to return to the form that he had
between twenty twenty to twenty twenty two. So during that particular window, his
CAT percentage was seventy four point one percent. That was six in the NFL
amongst tight ends. It gets considerably in Denver last year, down to sixty
two point ninety percent. But I think as Sean Payton has the opportunity to
implement his system with his guy, be it Jared Still and be at Bonix,
be anybody else from the draft. If we're not able to pick up
rock Powers and then I know, the odds of him being there at twelve,
even if we would take him at twelve, is no certain thing.
I do think that Adam Drubman has the potential to return, perform and make
them plays on the offense. Yeah, I'm not sure Brock will be there,
but that would be that would be an interesting weapon when you look at
this somebody, It is interesting because the other day I was I was talking
with somebody online and they were talking about the need for you know, for
receivers. I'm like, actually, that that room is pretty stocked. Now,
there's a difference between stacked and stocked. That that that vow that one
vowel makes all the difference in the world. But it doesn't feel like that
that pass catchers, at least not at the receiver position. Or said,
but the tight end position. It does feel like that they could definitely use
some body there, whether that's a Bowers or maybe you know the can out
of Kansas State Bens or not that helped make this offense go. Yeah,
it's going to be interesting to see what they do. I don't think that
we're going to get Bowers at twelve more do I think that we would take
them at twelve if he fell that far. But it really your guess is
as good as anybody else's. I think that if we if we're really focusing
on the guys that we have on the roster right now, it's worth giving
Adam troupni show because he played some good football at that position for a good
three year stretch, so I'd like to see him get back to it.
I think the biggest question, or the second biggest question, outside of who's
going to be starting on the center, not just in twenty twenty four but
just long term, is what can fans expect from with Sean Payton's offense in
the second year. The reason I asked that question because Russ was in his
first year of his understanding of this offense, and you just right it off
his stats. But Stidham is coming back and he would be in his second
year. So what can we expect from Sean Payton's over offense in year two.
I think that it's going to depend a lot upon how dominant the defense
is, because if you have a defense that's shutting offenses down the way we
did in twenty sixteen, right, there was a reason why we could afford
to have Trevor Simions start as many games as he didn't still end the season
with a winning record. So if we're having greater success on defense, I
think we can take a little bit more chances on offense. If the defense
struggles similar to what we went through last year, I think we're going to
see a little bit more of a conservative passing game out of Sean Payton.
He's a guy who likes to have full control over the offense that he runs,
and there's a reason why he let Russell Wilson go despite some of the
impressive numbers I shared at the beginning of the segment. Yeah, I'm looking
forward to this coming season. I feel like that this is going to be,
you know what, Sean Payton his vision. I guess it's going to
be his vision, and I mean I'm interested to see, you know,
what that looks like, because all the all the coordinators that ran that offense
are here in Denver now, you know, I mean Labarti got fired with
the Chargers, that with Kellen mor Now they get a hold of staff over
there. Pete Carmichael obviously let go in New Orleans so that they can run
the Shanahan offense. So it's interesting to see that this brain trust come back
together and what it is that they're going to be able to put together.
Do we expect to see something different than what we saw over the course of
those years in New Orleans? You know, I don't think that it's reasonable
to assume that we're going to see success on the offensive side of the ball
comparable to what we had in New Orleans because you had a first ballot future
Hall of Famer and Drew Greens. You also had some talented players, especially
towards the end of Drew's run right in the form of Michael Thomas and Alvin
Kamaras. So right now, we're doing the best we can with the roster
that we have, and I'm impressed with what some of our guys have been
able to do during various splits, But it's not reasonable to assume, whether
we're talking Jarrets did him in year two or drafting anybody. Even if somehow
we trade it up and took a JJ McCarthy, you're going to be looking
at a completely different style of ross. And so if we are a poor
man's version of what Drew Brees was able to produce a New Orleans, I
would consider us very fortunate, But I wouldn't set the bar that high.
We really have to take it one year at a time, Right, what's
a realistic scoring percentage for the Broncos this season? With everything being as it
is now and just kind of the optimism and the hope that maybe year two
would be much better. What are we looking at as far as an average
total per game offensively for this Broncos team. That's really a tough thing to
say because last year we finished the league nineteenth in scoring, despite the fact
that Russell Wilson led the AFC in touchdown pass percent So if we're able to
get a little bit more production on the ground, obviously that's going to bring
balance to the offense and open things up for the passing game. But I
would say that our goal should be to finish somewhere around league average. We'd
love to lead the league and scoring. We'd love to be the twenty thirteen
Broncos again. But I think that if we can get somewhere close to league
average or spark the right towards the gate of being a top ten offense,
that would be the optimistic side of what we could hope to expect in twenty
twenty four. Well, Ran, we we always appreciate it. Look forward
to just seeing what you cook out for us next time. All right,
sounds good. Appreciate you guys having done absolutely, take care. Ryan Michael
at the Ryan Michael on Twitter, columnist and contributor for the Pro Football Hall
of Fame. And you know, we always always get an excited and surprised
to see what it is that he you know that he brings here to the show.