WEBVTT

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It is time though, to go
out to the KA commis pay of the

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hot line, to bring on our
favorite guy and go inside the numbers.

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No, inside the number is with
Ryan Michael. Always love having Ryan on

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the show. Ryan the contributor columnist
at the Pro Football Hall of Fame and

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the unofficial official utofficial statistician here at
Broncos Country. Tonight, Ryan, how

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you doing tonight? Well, then, Nick, how are you guys?

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Yeah? Doing pretty well. These
guys are both wearing glasses now, and

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I didn't get the memo, so
I feel a lot less intelligent. But

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after we get a chance to talk
to you, I will be completely caught

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up on all things intellectual. I
will walk around quoting statistics with my pinky

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raised as I as I take drinks
out of a mug. I will do

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my best, but I myself am
not wearing glasses, so I might fall

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short tonight. Well. You know
what, I don't even know if we

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could trust this data anymore. I'm
just saying, if you put out some

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good stuff out there on Twitter.
I saw even Will Lut's got a chance

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to repost some of it. We're
looking for some positive statistics. You know,

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we've been talking a lot of a
lot of negative things to said the

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other what's the positives to testing will
that's highest field goal percentage in Broncos history

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at eight eight point two percent,
surpassing Jason Elamino three at oh seven and

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one? What else do you have
for us? Not a bad year?

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So yeah, and that's really been
the idea, right. I always find

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that the period between the beginning of
free agency and the start of the draft,

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it's I get a little impatient,
like, what is there really to

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talk about? Because if I have
to read another mock draft, if I'm

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going to pull the hair out of
my head. I don't think you need.

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I don't think you need any more
than one mock draft. Yes,

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So what I did was I did
a dig inside the numbers to really give

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a little bit of spotlight and love
to guys who are already in the building,

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already in our rosters. So in
no particular order, some of this

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is trivia, some of this is
really efficiency on the field. But wanted

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to acknowledge our guys for what they've
been able to do. So I'll start

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with Portland Sutton and right now he's
sitting at four thy two hundred and fifty

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nine receiving yards as a Bronco.
That means he's oney one hundred three yards

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away from moving from certain place into
surpassing Emmanuel Sanders in tenth place. Top

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ten all time in receiving, especially
for a franchise as historic as the Broncos,

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is no small feat. So I'll
be rooting for him to get as

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many yards as humanly possible. From
an efficiency standpoint, Quarterbacks mostly Rust last

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year produced a one hundred and twenty
point two passer rating when targeting sudden.

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So that included two perfect passer rating
games, right, because one hundred and

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fifty eight point three is the highest
the formula will permit. So there was

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a one to fifty eight point three
game in October against Green Bay, another

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one fifty eight point three in November
against Minnesota, and a one to fifty

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six point two in December against LA
So with that being said, obviously we

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look at call the sudden and he's
a wide receiver, but he can't throw

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the balls himself. We don't know
what the Bronco is going to do at

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the quarterback position, but the idea
is that they're going to bring someone in.

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But the guy who is QB one
at the moment is Jared Stidham.

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As things are currently constructed, What
did we as Broncos fans expect for from

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Jarred Stidham if he does emerge the
starting quarterback this season? What kind of

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stats can we are we looking at? Well? I think the first question

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we have to ask ourselves is how
are we going to replace Russell Wilson?

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And I understand that the perception of
how well he played last year there's a

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bit of a spectrum to that where
there are some people I would consider myself

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on this end of the spectrum.
I was impressed with what he was able

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to do given the situation, and
there are the people who felt that he

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fell short, didn't live up to
his contract. What I can tell you

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is this, he threw twenty six
touchdown passes in fifteen games and his five

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point eight percent touchdown percentage was number
one in the AFC Patrick Mahomes through twenty

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seven and sixteen games, he had
a four point five percent touchdown pass percentage

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that was good for fifteenth in the
NFL. So you're looking at a guy

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who produced Mahomes level touchdown passes,
a guy who led the NFL in fourth

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quarter comebacks, a guy who finished
eighth and passer ratings. So ask yourself,

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who is going to be putting up
Patrick Mahomes level touchdown passes, leaving

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the league in fourth quarter comebacks and
finishing top ten inefficiency as a passer.

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Whether it's Jared Stidham, whether it's
anybody we draft, those are going to

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be some pretty big shoes to fill. So looking at Jared, we have

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a one hundred and ninety seven attempt
sample size, not a very big sample

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size, it's also not nothing.
So what we've seen so far in his

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career a fifty nine point four percent
completion percentage that's low, a four point

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one percent touchdown pass percentage unremarkable,
an equal four point one percent interception percentage

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that's pretty bad, and a seven
point two yard per attempt average that's around

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league average. So if we're going
to channel the optimism that you bring to

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the table, nick On, what
I did was I adjusted his numbers and

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say he moves his completion percentage up
to sixty three and a half percent,

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Say his touchdown pass percentage moves up
to four point three. Say he cuts

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down on the pick significantly two point
five percent interception percentage maintains that seven point

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two yards per attempt average. What
you'd be looking at is about thirty six

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hundred yards through the year, twenty
two touchdowns, thirteen picks, and eighty

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eight point eight passer rating, which
would have been good for twenty first in

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the league last year. Essentially,
you'd be looking at Derek Carr from twenty

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twenty two right he had thirty five
twenty two in terms of yards, twenty

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four touchdowns, fourteen picks, and
an eighty six point three passer rating.

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I think that's about the ceiling of
a leak what we can expect from Jared

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Sstadam Misson starts all seventeen games.
But is it I mean, is there

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something to be said for continuity?
You're having continuity on both sides of the

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football, isn't Isn't there as an
expected I don't know, production boost from

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both sides the ball, and that
could theoretically lead to more wins even if

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those aren't eye popping numbers. I
think it could be, and I think

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that we're going to see that hopefully
as far as the team as a whole,

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because we're going to be entering in
year two of the Sean Payton regime.

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So I expect on offense, we're
going to see a little bit more

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of a Sean Payton system. Right, So we're talking short to intermediate pass

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game, timing, rhythm, quick
relief, sack avoidance, which is truly

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a skill. It's something that Drew
Brees was incredibly proficient at. It's not

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something that Jared Sidham has done well
in his brief limited time. I'm a

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little bit more excited to see what
Vance Joseph is able to do on the

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defensive side of the ball with that
continuity, because I look at coach Joseph

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as a guy who high football IQ. He's a player's coach. He's a

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guy who I think has had the
misfortune in his career, whether as a

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DC or a positional coach, He's
been paired with some pretty tough rosters,

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but when he's had support around him, when he's had good players to work

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with, the twenty eleven Houston Texans
finished fourth in points surrendered, the twenty

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twelve Texans finished ninety. When he
was coaching the DB's in Cincinnati in twenty

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fifteen, they finished second in the
league in scoring. So I think with

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Vance Joseph getting the opportunity to implement
his system and kind of build upon that

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continuity. I think that we're going
to see a significant jump on the defensive

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side of the ball. Last year, the Denver Broncos d didn't do too

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well against the run. And obviously
we can go back to the game against

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Miami and say, well, those
those particular numbers from that game skewed everything

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after. But the Broncos historically have
had issues slowing down the raiders. Now

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they made somewhat of a roster adjustment
the season, bringing over Foreman, saying

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to Malcolm Roach, how does his
presence on the D line changes how the

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Broncos play against the run this season? For me personally, the signing of

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Malcolm is my favorite free agent signing
move to Denver may during the offseason.

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And per Pro Football Focus, we're
talking about a guy who finished last year

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ranked number one in the NFL amongst
interior defensive linemen and runs operate at seventeen

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point four percent. And if you
look at the Saints defense as a whole

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last year, one of the things
that they were good was slowing down the

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run. They finished tie for fourth
in the league and rushing touchdowns allowed.

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They only gave up ten and eighth
in the league in rushing exp which is

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an efficiency metric per Pro Football Reference. So I look to Denver. We

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finished deadlinet giving up five yards per
carry on the ground, so we were

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thirty second, but thirty second by
a considerable margin. I think plugging Malcolm

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into the d line is going to
do tremendous benefits to the Broncos run defense

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this year. Yeah, and they
need that. I mean a lot of

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that rushing was from the disaster against
Miami last year, but still even even

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factoring out that game, the numbers
were still not good at all across the

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board. You know, one of
the things that I think we haven't really

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talked about is the impact that Josh
Reynolds is going to have on this offense.

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You know, with what he brings
to the table, the experience in

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a successful offense up there in Detroit
and what he was able to do,

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how big an impact do you think
he can have in his first year in

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Denver. He's a fantastic signing for
the Broncos. I mean, we're talking

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about a guy who last year part
of an explosive offense, finished second on

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the Lions. In terms of receptions, he had forty receiving yards six to

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eight when he led Detroit with fifteen
point two yards per reception. So if

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you look at the league in totality, factoring in the postseason, he actually

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finished with fifteen point four yards perception
for eleventh in the NFL and months wide

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receivers. So when you consider how
competitive that position is, he's definitely a

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deep game passing threat that's going to
open up and expand things for whoever the

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Broncos plug into the QB one spot. Now I have a thing as crossed

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for brock Bauers, but I know
statistically speaking, tight ends don't really go

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that high as twelve in the draft. But if the Broncos don't go in

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that direction and they don't pick up
a tight end, what wi guy on

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the roster currently on the roster right
now could step up and we can see

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maybe not just his impact but his
overall receptions change for the team. I

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think that Adam Trautman has the potential
to return to the form that he had

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between twenty twenty to twenty twenty two. So during that particular window, his

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CAT percentage was seventy four point one
percent. That was six in the NFL

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amongst tight ends. It gets considerably
in Denver last year, down to sixty

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two point ninety percent. But I
think as Sean Payton has the opportunity to

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implement his system with his guy,
be it Jared Still and be at Bonix,

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be anybody else from the draft.
If we're not able to pick up

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rock Powers and then I know,
the odds of him being there at twelve,

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even if we would take him at
twelve, is no certain thing.

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I do think that Adam Drubman has
the potential to return, perform and make

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them plays on the offense. Yeah, I'm not sure Brock will be there,

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but that would be that would be
an interesting weapon when you look at

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this somebody, It is interesting because
the other day I was I was talking

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with somebody online and they were talking
about the need for you know, for

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receivers. I'm like, actually,
that that room is pretty stocked. Now,

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there's a difference between stacked and stocked. That that that vow that one

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vowel makes all the difference in the
world. But it doesn't feel like that

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that pass catchers, at least not
at the receiver position. Or said,

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but the tight end position. It
does feel like that they could definitely use

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some body there, whether that's a
Bowers or maybe you know the can out

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of Kansas State Bens or not that
helped make this offense go. Yeah,

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it's going to be interesting to see
what they do. I don't think that

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we're going to get Bowers at twelve
more do I think that we would take

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them at twelve if he fell that
far. But it really your guess is

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as good as anybody else's. I
think that if we if we're really focusing

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on the guys that we have on
the roster right now, it's worth giving

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Adam troupni show because he played some
good football at that position for a good

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three year stretch, so I'd like
to see him get back to it.

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I think the biggest question, or
the second biggest question, outside of who's

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going to be starting on the center, not just in twenty twenty four but

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just long term, is what can
fans expect from with Sean Payton's offense in

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the second year. The reason I
asked that question because Russ was in his

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first year of his understanding of this
offense, and you just right it off

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his stats. But Stidham is coming
back and he would be in his second

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year. So what can we expect
from Sean Payton's over offense in year two.

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I think that it's going to depend
a lot upon how dominant the defense

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is, because if you have a
defense that's shutting offenses down the way we

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did in twenty sixteen, right,
there was a reason why we could afford

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to have Trevor Simions start as many
games as he didn't still end the season

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with a winning record. So if
we're having greater success on defense, I

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think we can take a little bit
more chances on offense. If the defense

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struggles similar to what we went through
last year, I think we're going to

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see a little bit more of a
conservative passing game out of Sean Payton.

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He's a guy who likes to have
full control over the offense that he runs,

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and there's a reason why he let
Russell Wilson go despite some of the

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impressive numbers I shared at the beginning
of the segment. Yeah, I'm looking

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forward to this coming season. I
feel like that this is going to be,

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you know what, Sean Payton his
vision. I guess it's going to

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be his vision, and I mean
I'm interested to see, you know,

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what that looks like, because all
the all the coordinators that ran that offense

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are here in Denver now, you
know, I mean Labarti got fired with

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the Chargers, that with Kellen mor
Now they get a hold of staff over

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there. Pete Carmichael obviously let go
in New Orleans so that they can run

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the Shanahan offense. So it's interesting
to see that this brain trust come back

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together and what it is that they're
going to be able to put together.

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Do we expect to see something different
than what we saw over the course of

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those years in New Orleans? You
know, I don't think that it's reasonable

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to assume that we're going to see
success on the offensive side of the ball

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comparable to what we had in New
Orleans because you had a first ballot future

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Hall of Famer and Drew Greens.
You also had some talented players, especially

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towards the end of Drew's run right
in the form of Michael Thomas and Alvin

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Kamaras. So right now, we're
doing the best we can with the roster

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that we have, and I'm impressed
with what some of our guys have been

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able to do during various splits,
But it's not reasonable to assume, whether

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we're talking Jarrets did him in year
two or drafting anybody. Even if somehow

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we trade it up and took a
JJ McCarthy, you're going to be looking

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at a completely different style of ross. And so if we are a poor

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man's version of what Drew Brees was
able to produce a New Orleans, I

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would consider us very fortunate, But
I wouldn't set the bar that high.

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We really have to take it one
year at a time, Right, what's

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a realistic scoring percentage for the Broncos
this season? With everything being as it

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is now and just kind of the
optimism and the hope that maybe year two

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would be much better. What are
we looking at as far as an average

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total per game offensively for this Broncos
team. That's really a tough thing to

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say because last year we finished the
league nineteenth in scoring, despite the fact

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that Russell Wilson led the AFC in
touchdown pass percent So if we're able to

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get a little bit more production on
the ground, obviously that's going to bring

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balance to the offense and open things
up for the passing game. But I

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would say that our goal should be
to finish somewhere around league average. We'd

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love to lead the league and scoring. We'd love to be the twenty thirteen

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Broncos again. But I think that
if we can get somewhere close to league

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average or spark the right towards the
gate of being a top ten offense,

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that would be the optimistic side of
what we could hope to expect in twenty

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twenty four. Well, Ran,
we we always appreciate it. Look forward

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to just seeing what you cook out
for us next time. All right,

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sounds good. Appreciate you guys having
done absolutely, take care. Ryan Michael

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at the Ryan Michael on Twitter,
columnist and contributor for the Pro Football Hall

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of Fame. And you know,
we always always get an excited and surprised

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to see what it is that he
you know that he brings here to the show.

