WEBVTT 1 00:00:03.240 --> 00:00:09.080 With Laurent Segeland from London and Gerard Reed from Berlin. This is redefining energy 2 00:00:09.480 --> 00:00:16.239 minutes minutes one point thirty and job is busy closing our deal in Germany. 3 00:00:16.399 --> 00:00:20.359 So we brought a friend, great friend of the show, James Carter, 4 00:00:20.640 --> 00:00:26.320 to talk about Tesla, and EV's thank you for having me. It's great 5 00:00:26.359 --> 00:00:29.280 to be here with you and having a chat. So I'm going to ask 6 00:00:29.280 --> 00:00:34.679 the first question because we've seen the quarterly reserve deliveries and so on as Tesla 7 00:00:34.759 --> 00:00:38.359 lost this module. That is a very good question when we took a look 8 00:00:38.359 --> 00:00:42.719 at Q one results, and frankly, I think Q one metrics for the 9 00:00:42.719 --> 00:00:47.359 company were not really that great. We did see revenue down, we did 10 00:00:47.399 --> 00:00:52.119 see quarterly profit down on those key metrics. I'm not sure that I would 11 00:00:52.119 --> 00:00:55.880 be be that excited, but you know, we are seeing similar things amongst 12 00:00:55.920 --> 00:01:00.240 other rowing ms, and that's one of the key reasons is simply because the 13 00:01:00.240 --> 00:01:03.400 economic conditions, because of high interest rates, people just don't have the money 14 00:01:03.439 --> 00:01:07.519 that they did even two years ago to spend on cars, especially with people 15 00:01:07.560 --> 00:01:11.799 in some countries paying eight ten percent on interest now. But of course, 16 00:01:11.959 --> 00:01:19.920 like a magicians now multiplier announcements of new models and Robotaxi of bright Future. 17 00:01:19.040 --> 00:01:23.799 So do you buy that or not. I'm usually always interested in what's happening 18 00:01:23.840 --> 00:01:29.000 with Tesla and usually fairly optimistic, but this one I wasn't. There are 19 00:01:29.040 --> 00:01:34.480 a couple of reasons why. The first one they announced was that there would 20 00:01:34.519 --> 00:01:38.840 be an update of that vehicles based on the current platform starting from Q one 21 00:01:38.879 --> 00:01:42.799 next year. But that one we kind of knew that's Model Why update. 22 00:01:42.000 --> 00:01:46.599 And you know, we've seen Model three go through their major update this year 23 00:01:46.719 --> 00:01:51.000 with their Highland spec and we've actually just seen the performance version just released. 24 00:01:51.480 --> 00:01:56.519 But that early release is without doubt Model Why. And while they didn't say 25 00:01:56.519 --> 00:01:59.239 that, of course it is. That's the only one that's coming up. 26 00:01:59.280 --> 00:02:02.519 But you know, once beyond that is what's interesting, And frankly I thought 27 00:02:02.560 --> 00:02:07.239 it was a bit of a lack of product. The first thing we noticed 28 00:02:07.400 --> 00:02:14.400 was that this long speculated model to or low cost vehicle has probably is probably 29 00:02:14.479 --> 00:02:16.960 out now. So you know, after spending a couple of years doing development, 30 00:02:17.439 --> 00:02:22.360 why has Tesla decided to ditch that? And there's a couple of reasons. 31 00:02:23.080 --> 00:02:25.919 One is China. Maybe they've just said this is just going to be 32 00:02:25.919 --> 00:02:30.280 too hard, peeps. Maybe we can't actually make any money on this, 33 00:02:30.400 --> 00:02:36.360 and perhaps their unboxing process that they were developing perhaps didn't yield the cost down 34 00:02:36.400 --> 00:02:40.960 that they were hoping for. So perhaps some of that development is now going 35 00:02:42.000 --> 00:02:46.560 towards their robotaxi type thing that they're talking about. The thing that I'm kind 36 00:02:46.560 --> 00:02:51.120 of worried about is that just not too early, Like have they really solved 37 00:02:51.159 --> 00:02:54.800 all the problems surrounding av design and development. You know, we have full 38 00:02:54.800 --> 00:03:00.560 self driving on our car this month and it's okay, but sixteen thousand dollars 39 00:03:00.560 --> 00:03:05.960 worth or i know now reduced price in Canada sixteen thousand or now reduced down 40 00:03:05.960 --> 00:03:08.759 to eleven. That seems like a lot of money for a sixteen year old 41 00:03:08.840 --> 00:03:14.159 driving around my cars. So basically you're saying the juice is not worth the 42 00:03:14.199 --> 00:03:20.080 squeeze. Absolutely not. Now. There was an interesting quote by you know 43 00:03:20.159 --> 00:03:23.599 on when he was not doing his antiques on you know, other stuff. 44 00:03:23.719 --> 00:03:29.879 He said, Chinese atomaker will demolish and I quote demolish most of the world's 45 00:03:29.879 --> 00:03:35.719 other car companies if there are no trade barriers. Our observation is generally that 46 00:03:35.800 --> 00:03:38.719 the Chinese car company are the most competitive cars company in the world. So 47 00:03:38.759 --> 00:03:44.159 that's a good segue to what's happening in China, because if we look at 48 00:03:44.159 --> 00:03:49.039 the EV sales in Q one twenty four, they were up twenty one percent 49 00:03:49.280 --> 00:03:53.159 quarter to quarter, so compared to Q one twenty three, But it was 50 00:03:53.199 --> 00:03:57.240 really a China story. Chinna had the thirty one percent growth, which now 51 00:03:57.439 --> 00:04:00.800 leads to a penetration of fifty percent, which is absolute crazy. Of course, 52 00:04:00.039 --> 00:04:05.319 you can be in the Chinese market is the all European and American market 53 00:04:05.360 --> 00:04:12.560 combined, whereas for evs the US and Canada were up thirteen percent and Europe 54 00:04:12.719 --> 00:04:16.920 only seven. The reason that said for Europe was probably the removal of Subsidi 55 00:04:17.000 --> 00:04:21.920 in Germany. So really is it the tale of China and versus the rest 56 00:04:21.959 --> 00:04:26.399 of the world. It kind of is. At the moment. I'm just 57 00:04:26.439 --> 00:04:30.879 going to talk about North America for a minute because it's kind of important that 58 00:04:30.920 --> 00:04:34.480 we understand what's happening here and then add a little bit of Europe to understand 59 00:04:34.519 --> 00:04:39.959 even give some more perspective on what's happening with China. When you have a 60 00:04:39.959 --> 00:04:44.199 look at North America. The Inflation Reduction Act, which throws a lot of 61 00:04:44.240 --> 00:04:48.399 money at evs and EV supply chain, particularly batteries is in a lot of 62 00:04:48.480 --> 00:04:54.959 ways a let's keep China out of this mix type policy that the US government 63 00:04:55.000 --> 00:04:59.399 has developed. So there's a couple of implications here that we need to talk 64 00:04:59.399 --> 00:05:04.319 about. One is cost. So there's a lot of protectionist policies for the 65 00:05:04.360 --> 00:05:09.600 OEMs that are already in the North American market to come up with something and 66 00:05:09.639 --> 00:05:14.199 have a big buffer and to keep the prices relatively high for evs. But 67 00:05:14.240 --> 00:05:17.439 the problem is is because it sort of artificially keeps EV prices high, the 68 00:05:17.480 --> 00:05:23.360 amount of the adoption rate for evs is kind of slow. That's one of 69 00:05:23.360 --> 00:05:27.959 the reasons in North America that adoption rates are slower than certainly China and certainly 70 00:05:28.000 --> 00:05:31.680 Europe. The other point that we should make is because the US doesn't or 71 00:05:31.720 --> 00:05:36.879 North America hasn't had the supply chain that China has. It's really starting still 72 00:05:36.920 --> 00:05:42.199 being set up, and some of the minerals and processing plants just aren't there, 73 00:05:42.439 --> 00:05:45.319 although they're starting to find them and put minds in, but as we 74 00:05:45.360 --> 00:05:48.839 all know, minds and processing plants take a long time to build. In 75 00:05:48.920 --> 00:05:53.680 some ways, the inflation Reduction Act. While it throws a lot of money 76 00:05:53.680 --> 00:05:59.279 at it is putting the role out of EVS in North America behind schedule compared 77 00:05:59.319 --> 00:06:02.680 to everyone else. Now we look at China, Europe is a bit less 78 00:06:02.720 --> 00:06:06.959 protectionist than the US. But at the same time, right now there's starting 79 00:06:08.000 --> 00:06:13.240 to be this concern that as you said that a Musk said that China will 80 00:06:13.240 --> 00:06:15.759 come in and take over and put OEM's at risk as well. So there's 81 00:06:15.800 --> 00:06:21.720 a fair chance that we'll see Europe start to add more protectionist method to prevent 82 00:06:21.839 --> 00:06:28.000 that happening. But you're absolutely right that China has the supply chain they have 83 00:06:28.079 --> 00:06:32.600 to know how they have whatever else to make fantastic cars to really wipe the 84 00:06:32.639 --> 00:06:36.160 floor. And if we have a look at a really open market now, 85 00:06:36.240 --> 00:06:41.800 and the one that's most open really globally is Australia. You know where I'm 86 00:06:41.800 --> 00:06:47.759 from. There are more models in Australia being sold, more brands in Australia 87 00:06:47.800 --> 00:06:51.160 being sold than anywhere else in the world. Everything from Europe, everything from 88 00:06:51.199 --> 00:06:57.199 Australia, everything from Asian lands in Australia. And because you've got these huge 89 00:06:57.240 --> 00:07:00.839 amounts of models, we have very fierce competition. You have a look at 90 00:07:00.879 --> 00:07:04.079 who's selling what in Australia, particularly on EV side, and you see one 91 00:07:04.079 --> 00:07:08.759 and two Tesla, so model Y, model Model three like Europe, like 92 00:07:08.959 --> 00:07:13.079 US. Okay, get that, but you have a look at four, 93 00:07:13.160 --> 00:07:16.720 five, six, seven, eight nine, all Chinese models. Ten is 94 00:07:16.920 --> 00:07:23.920 Hundaianamic five or Bobo XC forty. They started number ten best selling model and 95 00:07:23.959 --> 00:07:28.040 then go down from there. So frankly, when you have a look at 96 00:07:28.040 --> 00:07:30.839 that openness of the market, what Mask said is absolutely right, and you 97 00:07:30.879 --> 00:07:35.839 can understand why Europe is looking at putting more protectionist measures in place. Our 98 00:07:35.879 --> 00:07:41.319 friend of the show, Roger Atkins, is currently at the Shanghai ADO Show 99 00:07:41.480 --> 00:07:46.160 and he texted me on a regular basis he said, there are five hundred 100 00:07:46.959 --> 00:07:51.879 available IV models in China. Unbelievable. This is what I don't know. 101 00:07:53.279 --> 00:07:58.120 A few dozens in the US. Very different game. And you're talking about 102 00:07:58.160 --> 00:08:01.240 Europe. I can tell you even the German of tamakers, they're not that 103 00:08:01.360 --> 00:08:07.759 keen because some have developed some strong partnership BMW with cattle and others. So 104 00:08:09.439 --> 00:08:13.199 the fate of protectionism in Europe is still up to debate, which probably I 105 00:08:13.240 --> 00:08:16.720 think that that ship US sail in the US. Oh yeah, yeah, 106 00:08:18.160 --> 00:08:22.720 if you try to conclude the market is going to grow to seventeen million this 107 00:08:22.879 --> 00:08:28.600 year. So whenever you read and I call them the Oil Street Journal and 108 00:08:28.759 --> 00:08:35.240 other modert publication, we explain us that it's finished. The EV market has 109 00:08:35.360 --> 00:08:39.720 crushed. Those guys really are for propaganda le Flet. Yeah, yeah, 110 00:08:39.759 --> 00:08:43.399 absolutely. The thing is, no matter where you are, whether you're in 111 00:08:43.480 --> 00:08:46.159 China, whether you're in your whether you're in the US, you're still seeing 112 00:08:46.200 --> 00:08:50.960 EV growth. You're still seeing them, not perhaps at the rate that we 113 00:08:50.000 --> 00:08:54.200 saw a couple of years ago, but there is still market growth. And 114 00:08:54.240 --> 00:08:58.360 the other thing I think is really important to point out a lot of the 115 00:08:58.399 --> 00:09:03.519 OEM so refocus themselve I was kind of on hybrid and there's a problem with 116 00:09:03.600 --> 00:09:05.919 that, but there's kind of a long run benefit as well that we should 117 00:09:05.960 --> 00:09:11.679 think about. The first is the problem part is really that we're not necessarily 118 00:09:11.799 --> 00:09:16.720 solving the problem of getting ICs off the road. Are you getting pollution getting 119 00:09:16.759 --> 00:09:20.559 carbon off our roads? And I think that is a problem. So sure, 120 00:09:20.639 --> 00:09:24.080 it's sure it's reduced, and particularly when we look at some of the 121 00:09:24.120 --> 00:09:28.559 new Toyota models and these are kind of concerning for me. Is that Toyota 122 00:09:28.600 --> 00:09:35.080 and some other OEMs are releasing hybrid models that aren't really improving fuel economies substantially. 123 00:09:35.240 --> 00:09:39.720 Like the new Tacoma I Force Max hybrid version is still only getting twenty 124 00:09:39.879 --> 00:09:45.559 miles to gallon US, which is what twelve liters per hundred. It's pretty 125 00:09:45.559 --> 00:09:50.080 bad. So we're not making as much progress on that hybrid side to reduce 126 00:09:50.279 --> 00:09:54.360 carbon emissions as I would have hoped. That said, there is something really 127 00:09:54.360 --> 00:09:58.120 important about hybrids in the research that we've done. As soon as someone's owned 128 00:09:58.120 --> 00:10:03.039 a hybrid, and more particularly a plug in hybrid, their next vehicle is 129 00:10:03.080 --> 00:10:09.960 going to be EV. People get addicted to electrons, people get addicted to 130 00:10:09.120 --> 00:10:13.799 just running on electricity and making it low cost rather than using their fuel, 131 00:10:15.159 --> 00:10:16.759 and they don't just want a little bit, they want to go the whole 132 00:10:16.799 --> 00:10:22.639 hold, and their next vehicle often becomes EV. That is good news, 133 00:10:22.120 --> 00:10:26.759 but the progress is just not as fast as I would have hope. Okay, 134 00:10:26.879 --> 00:10:28.600 James, well, thank you so much for coming on the show. 135 00:10:30.000 --> 00:10:35.240 And last words before we got it today. I think the last words from 136 00:10:35.279 --> 00:10:39.240 me is when we look at this EV rollout, when we look at what's 137 00:10:39.279 --> 00:10:45.279 going to happen, in the long term, this is perhaps a bump or 138 00:10:45.320 --> 00:10:48.360 a bit of a dip in the road. Just like anything else that we 139 00:10:48.399 --> 00:10:52.399 see in life, whether it's solo, whether it's other green energy, or 140 00:10:52.399 --> 00:10:56.039 whatever it is, there's always bumps and dips, and maybe we're going through 141 00:10:56.080 --> 00:10:58.639 a little bump or dip through EV. But the long term is still the 142 00:10:58.679 --> 00:11:03.120 same. Zero missions is where it's at. These are mandated by government regulations. 143 00:11:03.720 --> 00:11:09.879 We will see EV become by far the dominant vehicle in the twenty thirties, 144 00:11:09.039 --> 00:11:13.399 and that's what's going to happen, regardless of the bumps and the dips 145 00:11:13.399 --> 00:11:16.720 that happen in the twenty twenties. Well, James, thank you very much 146 00:11:16.759 --> 00:11:22.240 for coming on Readyfining Energy Minutes. Thanks Lauren, thank you for listening to 147 00:11:22.320 --> 00:11:28.919 Redefining Energy. Don't forget to read the show and subscribe on Apple Podcast, 148 00:11:28.360 --> 00:11:31.200 Spotify, or the platform of your choice.