I mean our computer not only is a forecast you know pretty much every election
correctly, but long term trends and things of this nature. And we have
published back at even nineteen eighty seven that the twenty sixteen election would be the
first time a third party could possibly win, but that ended up being trunk.
You were listening to Carrie Leutz's Financial Survival Network, where you get valuable
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ever. And welcome you are listening to and watching the Financial Survival Network.
I'm your host, Harry Lutz and markin Armstrong is back with us again.
We've got some election forecast to provide you with as well as what the markets
are doing, what they'll continue to do. Marty, it's great to have
you back on the show. So oh and by the way, if you
want to find his work and sign up to his email list, it's Armstrong
Economics dot com. And if you want to send us an email, it's
kl at Carrie luds dot com right when we last spoke. We don't usually
get into politics on this show. It's a family show, after all,
and we don't want the little kiddies to be offended. But hey, it's
obvious Trump is now the nominee unless the courts say otherwise. My personal opinion,
I don't think the courts will whether they think he should be there or
not. At this point, They're just going to go with the flow.
What is Socrates saying about this next election twenty twenty four, Well, it's
very interesting because the computer's never been wrong on his political forecast, and since
nineteen eighty five. The only time I mean it even you know, correctly
forecasts Brigton. The only time there was maybe something interesting was the Bush Gore
election. It did show that Gore should have won, and of course the
Supreme Court David the Bush after the fact, when the votes were actually counted,
it did show that Gore would have won. I mean very you know,
it was a very tight race, but it would have won. So
it makes me wonder about rigging elections things of that nature. And what I've
seen with its forecast for twenty twenty four, and I put it on our
site. I have never seen the computer project something like this, Like I
said, since nineteen eighty five. Usually the elections are fairly you know,
you're looking at like fifty three. I mean, no president has won sixty
percent other than Fdr. Richard Nixon did, and you had John Johnson after
the Kennedy assassination, which was more or less I think a sympathy vote.
Other than those three elections, everybody in modern times it's been like fifty three
fifty four. I think Obama got fifty one, you know, like that.
So this year's model is showing like sixty one percent for Trump versus thirty
seven percent, so that you know, out of six models, four are
all basically showing a Republican victory. The other ones are showing okay, democratic
victory. But again it's like fifty one percent, so I've thought, I
mean, when you look at the confidence in government, there was a study
just that came out in Europe which has got a lot of the politicians a
little upset, you know, that was on phone with some of them over
there. It showed the confidence in the European government is thirty that hot,
huh. I mean it's even in Germany now, they're they're very concerned about
the AfD is going to win everything. I mean just five years ago over
they were far right Nazis, you know, and people are just getting fed
up with the oldest, you know, craziness climate change. I mean,
you've seen major protests over there from Netherlands and German farmers bars or up in
arms, and you can't blame them. I mean, but you know,
even Ursula's our own party is starting to back away from her because they're realizing
this is is this whole climate change is a disaster and the whole idea of
net zero doesn't you know, isn't even practical to begin with. So uh,
I think these policies, Uh, if if you look at Trump objectively,
what does he stand for. He stands for against uh CBDCs, he's
against climate change, and he's against war. So it's kind of you know,
sounds like a winning blackhorn to me. Yeah, I mean, it's
forget who it is. I mean, if that's the issue really for the
election, I can see what the computers, you know, are beginning to
project. But I mean you have you know, ol Chorros putting out this
this thing. You know, we're showing a painted glass or the bull and
forty seven dollars next to it, you know, which is clearly a an
implication basically that you know, to assassinate Trump because a couple of weeks before
he put out, oh, the only way to stop Trump is to put
him in prison. I guess he find them maybe read our block and I
put on Eugene Debs, who they put in prison. Uh, and he
was still able to run for president and uh for the election, and that
Wilson didn't like him and he took you know, you look at the facts
back then. He just stood up and said to resist, you know,
a war. And Wilson, one of them is thrown in prison. Uh,
and they did on their sedition, you know. I mean so free
speeches depends upon you know, it's the eye of the beholder, you know.
You know, we've been dealing with these you know issues for a long
time, so you know, there's just too much it's state. Honestly,
I can't personally see what you know, how can they allow Trump to even
win? Yeah, those three agendas, you know, and I think Soros
is little veiled threat is probably very real because they have no other shot.
And looking at our computer. I'm like, oh my god, I've never
seen it like this, so you're not. You know, it's not my
personal opinion here, I've just never seen it, you know, project anything
that drastic. It's like they can't even fix it, right. It sounds
like a margin that's too high to fix. Yeah, I mean, look,
there's scheme about letting all the people in through the border. I encountered
that before. You know, I've told you in the past. I had
the mandate from Hong Kong to negotiate with the Australian government when it was going
to be handed back to China. They knew I knew the Australian government.
So I met with the former Prime Minister Paul Kitty, and I wanted to
buy an island. No, I said, look, let this, you
know, let them come in and we'll take the upper left hand corner of
Australia. There's really nobody there. No, uh. And it just got
very frustrating. And I said, I've got a blank check here, I
can pay off your national debt. What's the problem. And I assumed I
couldn't think him anything. I said, is this racist? And I said
no. He said, they're fleeing communism and if they come here, they
will vote conservative. And he was a labor government. Really, that's what
they were. They would not allow them to come in because they were afraid
it would change the politics of the country. And that's what this is all
about. They're letting all these people that they think is just simply from South
America. And I suggest watching Cage in the Nightmare at the Border, the
Chinese are coming coming hands of thousands. They're not going to people are concerned.
They're not going to liberal right, who knows what they're going to vote
for. But I mean the point is that these people think they're all from
South America and they're not. If you look at rfk's documentary Nightmare at the
Border, ninety five percent of the people were from Middle East and Africa and
they weren't from South Americas. That he met one couple from Peru. That
was it. But you know, so, you know, look, intelligence
is not required to be in government discouraged, you know, yeah, pretty
much, I mean it. I mean, I've I've met probably more heads
of stated over the years than anybody, but something really changed. I mean
I was good friends with Margaret Thatcher and uh, you know it was called
in by Reagan, you know, back in the g five days and stuff.
I mean there were people that actually you could have an intelligent conversation with.
I mean today I don't know anybody that I could. I mean that's
I mean, not Trudeau, not Urshela, you know, not Biden.
You know, I mean with Biden, I have to bring a napkin to
wipe to drool from his mouth, you know. But I mean it's something
seriously is has gone wrong. And uh, they're just people behind all these
puppets that pull the strings and and that's really what's our major problem. They're
all compromised. I mean, Klaus Schwab is Look, Ursula was on the
board of Schwabs Trudeau, who is basically one of his pet you know,
projects of young leaders. You have Soros involved, who's basically funding a lot
of the Democratic elections. They put up money for the Colorado thing to get
Trump off the off the ballot. I mean, this is an agenda of
a group of people that are clearly have something other than our best interest at
heart. Well that's for sure, that's for sure. All right. So
let's talk about markets. So we talked about gold last time. You said,
if gold goes down in January, it'll go up for the year.
If it goes up, then it'll go down for the year. What's your
forecast saying now, pretty much the same thing. I mean, January I've
said it was a major, major turning point for this year. You got
the stock market going up. It looks like we make a January high backlall
for you at least a couple of months, maybe into May. Our major
model turns May seventh. If that is a low, then you're looking at
it turning back up after that. But I think it was confidence collapsing,
and you have all these people running around saying, oh, the stock market
is in a crash, blah blah blah. All these people would look at
is the old charts from nineteen twenty nine, and they have no idea what
the fundamentals were behind all these issues. You know, you had World War
One took place, I mean, and then World War Two all the capital
concentrated in the United States. That's what made nineteen twenty nine. You've had
all this money that came here basically to hide from World War One, and
then we had you know, kind of like a dot com bubble. It
was automobiles and boom, you know, and so it's the same thing happens
in like in Tokyo in eighty nine, the m was coming up, all
the capital was concentrating there, and so then you get you get these you
know, sort of bubbles at that point. And if you look at the
three stock market indexes, the NASDACK, the S and P five hundred in
the Dow, and the natsdack's more detail U S and P is tends to
be more domestic institutional type stuff, and the Dow is more of the showcase
for international. Like we said before, you know, when the Japanese came
do they did buy they bought Rock Fellas Center. They don't go down and
buying mom and pop houses for two hundred grand. Uh, they buy the
trophies. And so when the Dow is leading, that's showing you that big
foreign money is still coming in. And we've got these neocons creating war on
every front possible. So yeah, uh, you know, from Asia to
the Middle Eightiest to to to Europe, and I mean I've read clients in
in Tokyo that have woken up, and you know, when you got North
Korea shooting missiles off over you know testing you know, uh, they've come
to the conclusion and they better have some money in the United States. And
and so you're seeing you know, real estate still rising, uh in selected
areas, the stock market making new highs. I think you're going to see
a high here in January. The then have back offs at least for a
couple of months. But this is is basically showing what we're dealing with.
It's as things get chaotic around the world, the capital runs over here.
It's hard to evade the United States with you know, you need a you
know, a flotilla to get here or or an illegal immigrant invasion, right
pretty much, Yeah, but you have you know, there's just a lot
going on that way. And honestly, I don't our computer keeps projecting war.
But you know, as I've said on your show before, I mean
I mean our computer not only as a forecast you know, pretty much every
election correctly, but long term trends and things of this nature. And we
published back at even nineteen eighty seven that the twenty sixteen election would be the
first time a third party could possibly win, but that ended up being Trump
is neither a Republicans or the Democrats. He really was. Then for twenty
twenty it's a you know, extremely tight. But twenty four it said,
you know, that could be the last election in the United States and that
nobody's going to accept it from either side. Twenty eight might not even take
place. Now these are forecast the computer has put out back in nineteen eighty
five. So having to live through this and see how it actually unfolds,
it's like, you know, wow, you know, I it's not my
personal opinion. It's about being pro Trump against Trump or ending out. It's
just this is the way it is. And I mean even Nigro Farage came
and spoke at our twenty tie nineteen convention in Rome. He says, of
course, I'm here. Is there anyone forecast that Brexit would win. I
mean, all the polls that breaks was on how to lose. I mean
they did the same thing with Hillary. So I mean, these things are
there's I think, driven mostly by the combination of what's happening in the world
economy and the real issue here is they know they're going to default. I've
been warning and meetings here honestly for fifty years. This is not going to
work out. And end well, and they've always argued, well where the
government were different, how governments collapse, and this has been the standard model
for throughout centuries, all right, and you can see it unfolding now.
You have the neocons running off lasting China all the time, you generals coming
out saying we're going to be in war with China within two to three or
five years whatever. Why would China then buy our debt? You know?
And too smart? They are the largest holder of you as dat now if
they stop buying, all right, how governments collapse is that you issue new
debt and nobody buys it, so you can't pay off the old. That's
when it all comes crashing down. And we're coming to that area, how
cuick and that I would say, we're honestly it could be less than two
years really, So what they're really looking at here, that's what this CBDC
stuff is about. And people have to understand, all right, China and
the bricks they're going to do with direct CBDC so the government will actually control
it directly. The US government cannot do that, the FED can't do it.
It would be an unconstitutional all a Fourth Amendment, legal search and seizure
and stuff like that. So what they're doing is they're using the test model
that they ran on COVID, and people don't understand. I mean, if
you look at a case, it's McGray versus Harris, the Supreme Court case,
and I suggest reading a woman you know, said that, oh,
well, I have a right to an abortion, so the government should pay
for it. And then and the Supreme Court said, no, the Constitution's
negative. It's not positive. So it's a restraint upon government. It's not
a right that you actually have. So if you look at the First Amendment
says the government shall not ask any law. So what did they do?
They turned into big tech. You can do whatever you want, so Facebook
can con censor you on YouTube. Can you have no constitutional rights to free
speech? That's a misnomer. The government cannot take it away from you,
but everybody else can. So that's what they're doing with the CBDCs. The
top banks you're already queuing up to create these digital dollars, they will be
the ones that actually issue the coins. The FED will then cancel the currency,
and they will be the monitors, all right, because the FED can't
do it legally, So if they see something in your account. Oh,
this looks strange. They're already required to file a suspicious activity report, so
then they'll go to them. So oh, hey, carry, let's just
did this all right, and then that's fine. Then the government can go
in. You know, it's a tip. But the government would have to
do issue with search warrant to go after you for the same thing. That's
the difference. So the banks, you're doing the same thing, is like
Facebook and everything else when they did with their First Amendment issues. Now the
banks, you're going to do it for the CBDCs, and so the Fed
will not be issuing ACBDC And you have to understand this, it will be
indirect not direct. Now once they do that. Uh, Like I said,
I've been in meetings for years and and or nothing but the same nonsense
all the time. And they never assume that the government is ever a problem.
It's always us. So they think that eliminating paper money and then we
go to these you know, digital dours and whatever, then what happens is
that will eliminate the underground economy. They really think they're going to get thirty
five percent more in taxes. This is the number I've been told they believe
this. This is Look, this is what There are no mirrors in Washington
or Brussels. They never look at themselves and this is what is really behind
this all right. Now, what I would think, I mean, I've
seen these people know they're great taking. I mean, it's a complete nonsense.
Really, if they took everybody's assets. Okay, then you're talking about
the military, all right, Why would the military then defend the government.
Yeah, you know, you can't do that and it would be unconstitutional.
Anyhow, when a confiscated gold went up to the Supreme Court and you read
those cases, you still have the same number of dollars. You didn't lose
anything, all right, that was their interpretation. It could have been clamshells
or gold or whatever, but you still got the same amount of dollars in
your account, so you didn't lose anything. So what they're going to do,
in my opinion, is that they're going to be selectively defaulting. So
by starting these wars, they were just default on China. They're not going
to pay that debt, and anybody that opposes us as it will just default
on it. And that you know, part of what they'll do. China
has their debt that they defaulted on. That England settled it when they negotiated
the handover Hong Kong, but we never settled it with the US. So
we'll just tender our debt to we'll just cancel it out right. Yeah,
I mean, this is the nonsense that you know they're not going to pay
it. I mean, that's simple as that. China is a fool for
even buying anything at this point. Like I said, it would be like
you know, me pointing an empty gun at you and said, would you
lend me one hundred dollars so I can buy some bots to shoot you?
So then the dollar, So the dollar then loses its reserve status, currency
status? Is that what's going to happen? Well, you have the reason
that dollar is the reserve is because of nothing that the government does. It
has to do really with the economy, all right. Uh, the US
economy is a consumer based economy, and that's what you know China is trying
to copy the United States. The other type of economy is like what Germany
did. It's the old mercantile model from like the eighteenth century. We build
stuff and we sell to everybody else. But if you look at at the
statue, you'll see a German. The average German has less net worth than
an italianate. They keep their taxes high, et cetera. So you know,
they're more interested in building BMW's and Mercedes and selling them to the world.
You know, that's it. So the US is what is made the
US the major economy is that it's everybody needs to sell something here, you
know, if if the Japanese need to sell the toyotas, et cetera.
All right, so what you're you're looking at here is once they put in
the sanctions against Russia that undermined the world economy. That was the first blow
because you started, you know, dividing it. So China starts setting up
its chip system and then it started getting more countries to to go on that
line. So the dollar will not be the most the exclusive settling currency.
But from an economic standpoint, look, you know, uh, trying to
add really nothing. After communism, you know, finally fell, Japan was
wiped out after World War Two. Germany was it's the people that may get
you know, an economy, all right, So Japan and Germany rose to
the top. Why because the people were very hard producing that. You know,
you get these people that just talk about oh, precious metals, that's
it. No, I'm sorry. You look at at Russia. They're the
richest nation in the world from a natural resource perspective. In nineteen seventeen,
they had the largest gold reserves of any country on the on the face of
the earth. But if they don't have an economic system that allows people freely
to develop things, it doesn't matter. So, I mean, that's the
real thing about the United States. And I think you know, listen to
the speech of the head of Argentina at Davos. It was absolutely correct,
and he was trying to warn you know, the West, you're following the
path that brought us down right, all right, Archentina was one of the
richest countries in the world at the time and they fell from the top ten
to number one forty. Yeah, his speech is very, very good,
and a lot of people at Davos didn't like it. But all right,
so we had a little bit of a power failure there. My generator has
tipped on. So going back to Europe and you know, we're going to
have these regional I guess currencies. There won't be a master reserve currency like
the dollar. Now, is that how it's going to shape out? Well,
I think you'll end up with with two. I mean, the IMF
is creating their own coin and they're trying to you know, replace the dollar.
But again, I don't think they understand what makes a reserve currency to
begin with. You know, they you know that they think they can just
decreate and and that's just not going to be the case. So I would
say that I'm not really a hundred percent sure that that that's going to work
out very well for them. But what I would look at is you're definitely
creating, uh, you you bifurcated the world the economy because of the sanctions
against Russia, and so China is is going to be going toe to toe
with the US as far as uh, you know, creating it its network
and redeveloping it's it's soak road, et cetera. So as time goes out,
the US is uh, it is definitely declining. Once they, like
I said, once they did the sanctions against the Russia and took them out
of the swift, that was that was it, you know. And I
should point out when Nurushia went into crimea back in twenty fourteen, Obama went
to Swift and wanted to have a removed, and Swift refused and said,
you're not going to turn the world monetary system into a weapon. So what
did they do? They replaced the head of Swift in twenty nineteen and Biden
goes in says remove Oh, okay, fine, whatever you want to do.
So now the Swift system is no longer the world system. Simple as
that. You know, they committed their own suicide, right all right,
So looking ahead here, so because of the loss of faith in the government,
we'll see higher stock prices. You're thinking there's more money flows into it
from all of all. Yeah, I mean I know a lot of people
like look at twenty nine and keep saying the stock market's going to craft.
Actually look at this, Oh right, fine, that's what I mean.
They don't understand the fundamentals behind any of this. And just ask yourself,
are you willing to sell all your stocks today and all your private assets and
go buy bonds from Biden? I mean, that's the real solution. What
these people were saying that there would be some giant crash, it's the opposite.
The crash is coming in the government in which case the amount of money
in government debt globally is at least ten times that in the private sector.
Yeah, so the smart money has been moving out. I mean it's I'm
still getting at least three calls a week. You want to sell your house?
No, thank you? You know where am I going to go to?
Chicago? You know? I mean, so the market is not died
down over here. Then you also have the internal migration within the country,
and you get people fleeing all the Blue states moving to the Red States.
And as that happens, then and the Blue states are sure and revenue do
and instead of reforming, theyjors raised taxes. Uh, you just had bezos
from you know, Amazon moved to Miami. I mean, I can tell
you myke you know, I moved here seven years ago. And back then,
my lawyer said that if I died when I lived in New Jersey,
tell your family to drag your body across the river before they tell anybody,
you know, because you know you're They take half of what you earn while
you're living, and then when you die to one the other half. It's
ridiculous, you know, And so so many people have just been leaving.
I mean, we held conferences in Hong Kong. I had to give them
the jersey ten percent. Why you know, what'd you do for me?
You the only thing you ever give me is parking tickets and stuff, you
know, in private parking lots so less. So you know, it's I
think that's where we're really going here. It's it's, uh, the confidence
in government is collapsing, and as I said, their own study in Europe
showed it's down to thirty percent. When you're looking at confidence collapsing like this,
you're not going to buy the debt. Yeah, and that's the sovereign
debt crisis. When China no longer continues to buy the debt and is a
net seller, how do you then raise money to pay off the list tranche
of debt that's expiring. That's when governments collapse. That's how it happens.
Hey, So inflation, we're looking to get more inflation in the coming year
or is it going to back off or re emerge. No, We're we're
looking at an economic recession after May into twenty eight. But that's going to
be met with still rising inflation because we're looking at you know, this type
of inflation is more like the seventies when OPEC raised the price of oil,
it was a cost push inflation, so we ended up with stagflation. This
is the same thing once they did that. COVID nonsense locking us down.
I mean I got email us from farmers they had to kill thirty some thousand
chickens because one they couldn't buy the food to get it in, and two
they couldn't get anybody to pick up the chicken. This issach on the market.
It's ridiculous. Yeah, what do you do? And so I mean
these people are honestly, those in government are just there's nobody there with half
of brains or maybe even ten percent of one if they if they had it,
they left long ago, right. Look, I mean I know a
lot of people. I mean I had a one who I became friends with
was the chief of staff for the House Spanking Committee, and I he was
going to retire, and I said, why are you doing that? Retiring
early? He said, I can't take it here anymore. I got to
get out. I said, we really could use people like you're still here
in the next few years. He's not sorry, not interested. I know
six other politicians leaving, all saying the same thing. You know, I
just want to get out of here before the roof caves in. They'd get
there like multi million dollar pension, lifetime health insurance. Hey, one final
question, Martin. So when everything blows up, how are they going to
keep paying all these benefits, all these pensions, all the promises, social
security, medicare. Because, like Margaret Thatcher said, your good friend,
eventually the problem with socialism is eventually run out of other people's mind. That's
what we're That's what's happening. If you look at the data from the IRS,
you know, and the top taxpayers are all moving to the Red states.
Here at Florida, we have no no income tax, state income tax.
You go to California thirteen and a half. Oh, you know,
it's it's you know, it's just economically not feasible. And so at this
stage in the game, what happened I think is that they're going to they
need war as a diversion. So what I have heard on war is that
they may started even this summer. Really and look, these people just they're
they're insane. But the scuttle but is that, well, no present has
ever lost an election during war. So we start the warship Biden gets re
elected. Others are saying, well, they're afraid that Trump gonna win,
so if they start a war before he gets in, then he can't get
out of it. So I would be very concerned. You're you're going to
see these people, uh, connive some sort of a war, you know,
in the summer, probably maybe July. Uh. I mean, it's
this is what they're doing all and they need this diversion because government is collapsing.
They're not going to be able to fund all these social programs, as
you find it out, and then they blame everything, like when inflation started,
they were calling, oh, it's Putin's inflation, you know. And
they need a diversion because they are not willing to admit that since World War
Two, all they've ever been doing is borrowing every year with no intention of
ever paying it off. As we've said, right now, we got interest
payments at a trillion dollars. When Ronald Reagan came to power, the national
debt hit a trillion and everybody freaked out. Then well now we've got an
inru out payment annually at a trillion dollars. So these people little things like
police and fire protection and ambulances. Those are social programs to them, just
like any other social program, and they're there to be cut and to be
done with as they see fit it. It'll be interesting to see if you
can't pay the cops how things turn out. In any event, been a
pleasure as always, Martin. Make sure you go to Martin's site, sign
up for his newsletter Armstrong Economics dot com. Link at the show to notes
right here, and Martin, we'll talk to you again in another couple of
months and see how this thing has unwound. Well. Nice to see Gary,
and stay warm on your side of the state. Thanks for listening to
carry Letz's Financial Survival Network your solution to today's trying times. For the latest,
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