WEBVTT 1 00:00:00.360 --> 00:00:07.519 Not five miles an hour riding to his head. You hop it down first 2 00:00:07.679 --> 00:00:13.640 with the lump bonius face, and on the very next pitch he up and 3 00:00:13.800 --> 00:00:27.879 stole second face with gretest be he wasn't born he had? Yes, all 4 00:00:28.000 --> 00:00:32.679 right. Welcome to episode twenty two of the Prospect B Sides podcast. I 5 00:00:32.719 --> 00:00:38.000 am Nate Handy joining me again the rook Matt, how are you. How's 6 00:00:38.039 --> 00:00:41.320 it going, Nate? I'm happy, man. We're like, we're still 7 00:00:41.359 --> 00:00:44.000 in the bigs for another week at least, you know, they say, 8 00:00:44.399 --> 00:00:48.479 getting to the bigs is one thing, but sticking around are a few weeks 9 00:00:48.520 --> 00:00:50.759 in a row. I know, right, I kind of have a feeling 10 00:00:51.280 --> 00:00:54.359 it'll be short lived, though. I think we'll be getting sent back down 11 00:00:54.439 --> 00:00:58.880 even maybe before the end of this episode. I least. If it was 12 00:00:58.960 --> 00:01:03.319 weird being in the majors and not talking about guys with an infinitesimal chance to 13 00:01:03.560 --> 00:01:07.879 make it out of the minor leagues, I know, right, like how 14 00:01:07.920 --> 00:01:11.719 to pronounce everyone's name really well and everything like it. It was odd. 15 00:01:11.799 --> 00:01:17.560 But last week, if you didn't listen, we we did some MLB B 16 00:01:17.719 --> 00:01:22.640 siding, talked about some dats that don't seem quite popular but might have some 17 00:01:23.280 --> 00:01:27.159 fantasy utility for us in different formats and what have you. And we're going 18 00:01:27.200 --> 00:01:30.439 to do a little bit of the same tonight, but with some pictures. 19 00:01:30.760 --> 00:01:36.280 We plan on talking about a new toy that a friend of ours made for 20 00:01:36.359 --> 00:01:38.680 us, and some interesting things that we took away from that. I wanted 21 00:01:38.719 --> 00:01:42.920 to mention last week we had talked about Miranda, right and then of course 22 00:01:44.000 --> 00:01:48.599 the twins signed Santana like the day that I think I finally got this thing 23 00:01:48.719 --> 00:01:53.799 edited in out, So like we had discussed discussed getting played, appearances might 24 00:01:53.840 --> 00:01:59.799 have gotten just as an infielder left the situation, they added another. So 25 00:01:59.840 --> 00:02:04.879 that adds another little wrinkle to the Miranda discussion. But I still have hope 26 00:02:05.159 --> 00:02:08.000 also too. When we were talking about Jacob Myers Jake Myers, I had 27 00:02:08.080 --> 00:02:12.599 mentioned how I thought Quincy Hamilton might be the next guy up. I had 28 00:02:12.639 --> 00:02:16.879 totally forgotten Matt about our twenty twenty one Astros B side selection. Kind of 29 00:02:16.919 --> 00:02:21.520 the Corona is on, he's on the forty man, so I would put 30 00:02:21.719 --> 00:02:25.039 him as the next young outfielder that might get a look there if Myers can't 31 00:02:25.039 --> 00:02:28.879 take it. We know Corona plays a really good center field. So I 32 00:02:28.919 --> 00:02:32.479 just wanted to mention those couple of things and correct myself there. But yeah, 33 00:02:32.520 --> 00:02:38.879 there was a trade this week between one of your favorite clubs and your 34 00:02:38.960 --> 00:02:42.000 favorite club. Well, I think we're kind of in there. We're kind 35 00:02:42.039 --> 00:02:46.560 of in the middle of like a separation, probably leading towards divorce sort of 36 00:02:46.599 --> 00:02:50.319 thing. Well, I was curious what your thoughts were on that one. 37 00:02:50.599 --> 00:02:57.159 I had a lot of thoughts about the Santos Burroa and Delo trade. It's 38 00:02:57.199 --> 00:03:01.240 the pick sixty nine trade, But that is a nice in that way. 39 00:03:01.719 --> 00:03:07.919 I do think that Jerry and Justin for the Mariners to put on and Hollider, 40 00:03:07.919 --> 00:03:14.800 they've done a pretty good job putting a roster together with the ownership limitations 41 00:03:14.840 --> 00:03:20.360 that were seemingly surprised imposed on them after the season this year. And while 42 00:03:20.400 --> 00:03:23.919 that is a huge bummer in and of itself, like having this incredible core 43 00:03:24.039 --> 00:03:31.599 of pictures Julio plus some other star quality major leaguers and an obviously flawed roster 44 00:03:31.879 --> 00:03:36.479 that you could throw some money at and turn into a perennial, you know, 45 00:03:36.599 --> 00:03:39.599 five year window kind of contender, it's a bummer that ownership didn't want 46 00:03:39.599 --> 00:03:44.199 to do that, and wanted to kind of cheap it out, but Jerry's 47 00:03:44.360 --> 00:03:47.960 mostly done a pretty good job around the edges. And I do like this 48 00:03:49.080 --> 00:03:53.960 trade in the if they think that Santos is going to help them this year 49 00:03:53.000 --> 00:03:57.520 and next, they sold a little bit of future value to do that, 50 00:03:57.639 --> 00:04:00.840 right, Like the White Sox are gonna win this trade on net present war, 51 00:04:01.120 --> 00:04:03.759 right, Like, even though it's a five year contract, he's a 52 00:04:03.800 --> 00:04:08.479 reliever. Maybe he's good for a year or two, But this is like 53 00:04:08.719 --> 00:04:13.800 if Santos earns the Mariners five war over the next five years, Like, 54 00:04:13.879 --> 00:04:17.319 that's probably pretty good. And I think that Barrowa has a chance to be 55 00:04:17.519 --> 00:04:23.720 exactly the same as Santos, Like that's a non zero chance. Deluxe is 56 00:04:23.759 --> 00:04:29.639 probably like a fringe fourth replacement platoon outfielder. It'll accrue some more. And 57 00:04:29.680 --> 00:04:31.959 then Pick sixty nine is like a pretty good pick, not just the pick 58 00:04:32.000 --> 00:04:35.720 itself, but the like million plus that it adds to their bonus pool. 59 00:04:35.959 --> 00:04:41.160 So all that said, for that to be a good pick, that implies 60 00:04:41.199 --> 00:04:44.879 that the White Sox do something worthwhile with it. Though, well, setting 61 00:04:44.920 --> 00:04:47.079 that aside, you know they've got a new regime, right, maybe they'll 62 00:04:47.480 --> 00:04:50.680 the guy from the office in the Hall is going to do a better job. 63 00:04:50.959 --> 00:04:56.399 They do not have a new regime. I think that it's I like 64 00:04:56.480 --> 00:05:00.600 what it says about the Mariners actually do realize that they I've got a really 65 00:05:00.600 --> 00:05:05.000 good team and they are trying as best they can to put the best product 66 00:05:05.079 --> 00:05:09.800 on the field. And Santos is an interesting case in and of himself. 67 00:05:10.000 --> 00:05:14.399 Is like a guy that was a fireballer reliever, a guy that, like 68 00:05:14.560 --> 00:05:17.240 I think I never would have liked as a prospect coming up, just because 69 00:05:17.240 --> 00:05:23.279 he had control issues and was a reliever, and those guys are so volatile. 70 00:05:23.680 --> 00:05:29.279 But it's interesting that his last year was so solid, you know, 71 00:05:29.639 --> 00:05:32.079 didn't give up any homers, and I think that that appears to be a 72 00:05:32.120 --> 00:05:35.519 skill of his. Kept the ball in the ground a lot, struck guys 73 00:05:35.600 --> 00:05:39.800 out quite well, and then, of course for him most importantly, kept 74 00:05:39.839 --> 00:05:43.120 the walks down. And I don't know if you saw this or in any 75 00:05:43.120 --> 00:05:46.399 of the reporting about the trade, but Santos now projects as like one of 76 00:05:46.399 --> 00:05:51.600 the top three relievers in all of baseball, just he did so much in 77 00:05:51.639 --> 00:05:56.319 that one year and the computers seemed to be buying it. It's not like 78 00:05:56.399 --> 00:06:00.720 this was an overperformance sort of year that the computers aren't buying. The projection 79 00:06:00.839 --> 00:06:06.720 systems are saying zips especially, but all of them are buying him as a 80 00:06:06.759 --> 00:06:13.040 mid threes er guy. And you know, striking out nine to ten batters 81 00:06:13.079 --> 00:06:15.199 an inning, limiting the locks, keeping the ball on the ground, that's 82 00:06:15.319 --> 00:06:19.000 impressive. That's a useful reliever if they're right. So I don't know. 83 00:06:19.399 --> 00:06:25.079 I think it was an interesting sort of trade. My initial reaction was skepticism, 84 00:06:25.160 --> 00:06:27.920 but the more I thought about it, I think it signals something good 85 00:06:27.920 --> 00:06:30.680 for the Mariners. And I do think that the White Sox got decent value 86 00:06:30.879 --> 00:06:35.240 too, Like I think they're going to win the surplus war calculations in this 87 00:06:35.360 --> 00:06:40.639 trade. Yeah, I will admit it was a gets trade that I didn't 88 00:06:40.720 --> 00:06:45.360 think was really just super lame. I think the sentiment from the majority of 89 00:06:45.439 --> 00:06:48.199 Mariners fans that at least I have seen chat about it. I think you 90 00:06:48.319 --> 00:06:51.519 might have been putting a little bit of lipstick on a pig there, but 91 00:06:51.680 --> 00:06:56.040 I thought you made some really good points. We'll see, man, We're 92 00:06:56.240 --> 00:07:00.000 I finished. I completed my first first year player draft of the year in 93 00:07:00.000 --> 00:07:02.839 the medical one. I think it went. I think, oh, I 94 00:07:02.839 --> 00:07:06.759 mean, we'll find out I got some guys that I had wanted, but 95 00:07:08.000 --> 00:07:11.680 my competitive juices this time of the year started started getting going. Man, 96 00:07:11.680 --> 00:07:14.759 we're a week into February. You know, I used to be a guy 97 00:07:14.759 --> 00:07:17.319 before basketball games listening to Rage against the Machine, and like, I start 98 00:07:17.360 --> 00:07:21.439 to feel that sort of like that angst this time of year. So that's 99 00:07:21.480 --> 00:07:26.560 going on. And then our good friend mister Clegg, I don't know if 100 00:07:26.560 --> 00:07:30.639 you saw, put out a little tweet comparing or contrasting the Dodgers triple A 101 00:07:30.879 --> 00:07:34.839 rotation to the Rockies major league rotation, and man, I gotta tell you 102 00:07:35.000 --> 00:07:39.680 that to use a poke the bear analogy that felt like a little bit of 103 00:07:39.720 --> 00:07:43.759 a flaming bag of poop thrown into the den. There it got me going. 104 00:07:43.879 --> 00:07:47.360 I've issued a challenge to our friend. I'd like to podcast to fight 105 00:07:47.439 --> 00:07:50.120 him on this debate you. I don't know if you've seen this or aware 106 00:07:50.120 --> 00:07:53.519 of this, but I need to look it up. I don't even remember 107 00:07:53.519 --> 00:07:57.600 who it was, but someone was trying to start up like this podcast where 108 00:07:57.639 --> 00:08:01.480 like some fantasy people call each other out have a little fun debate session. 109 00:08:01.519 --> 00:08:05.040 And I threw that out there the crisp I don't know if he wants to 110 00:08:05.079 --> 00:08:11.879 smoke Matt, well, well bring the smoke. What are you thinking here? 111 00:08:11.079 --> 00:08:16.600 It sounds like you're landing on the side of your Colorado Rockies starting five, 112 00:08:16.720 --> 00:08:20.759 you're going to take them over the Dodgers triple A rotation there, Yes, 113 00:08:20.800 --> 00:08:22.879 I mean I don't I want to save I want to save my my 114 00:08:22.959 --> 00:08:26.920 fight for the ring. But yes, I do not agree with mister Clegg 115 00:08:28.120 --> 00:08:35.039 that the Doadger's triple triple A rotation is better than the Rockies Major league rotation, 116 00:08:35.320 --> 00:08:41.200 the point being that it's debatable, like that's says something about all right, 117 00:08:41.440 --> 00:08:45.840 I don't know, I don't know. There are some guys in the 118 00:08:45.919 --> 00:08:50.639 Rockies rotation that are that are good for sure and have showed decent skills in 119 00:08:50.679 --> 00:08:54.679 the past. And of course pitching in Colorado is miserable. It's so hard 120 00:08:54.720 --> 00:08:58.799 to do that. One just hit, just just poked a lout of my 121 00:08:58.879 --> 00:09:03.559 bears, Matt, your prospect thing me feeling the need to defend the Rockies 122 00:09:03.559 --> 00:09:07.840 and all the bad narratives surrounding them. Like. I didn't mean to get 123 00:09:07.879 --> 00:09:11.919 into this too much. I just wanted to put out here for eight listeners 124 00:09:11.960 --> 00:09:18.360 that I have issued a formal challenge to mister Gotlin has been thrown, so 125 00:09:18.399 --> 00:09:22.240 we shall see if he responds. Let's talk some pictures. Let's talk some 126 00:09:22.559 --> 00:09:26.759 MLB B side pitching. Matt and I'll I'll let you go first. What 127 00:09:26.840 --> 00:09:31.080 do you go for? Right? Again, I wasn't quite sure how deep 128 00:09:31.159 --> 00:09:37.200 we wanted to go, and I kind of selected my guys that I wanted 129 00:09:37.240 --> 00:09:41.840 to talk about across the spectrum of fantasy of relevant pictures. There are a 130 00:09:41.840 --> 00:09:45.240 couple of guys that I wanted to touch on that are probably like twelve team 131 00:09:45.360 --> 00:09:48.279 mixed relevant, like really shallow leagues, and then a couple of them that 132 00:09:48.399 --> 00:09:52.279 are, you know, your deeper leagues you should consider someone as a streamer 133 00:09:52.360 --> 00:09:56.080 or maybe something a little more. And then a couple for our super deep 134 00:09:56.120 --> 00:10:01.320 thirty team, like anybody with a pulse you should roster. I wanted to 135 00:10:01.440 --> 00:10:05.720 start a guy that I actually just took in an FYPD. When I was 136 00:10:05.799 --> 00:10:09.120 talking about this a little bit in the Dynasty Dugout discord, I mentioned that 137 00:10:09.200 --> 00:10:13.600 I was considering taking Steven Mattz with my first round pick, my only first 138 00:10:13.679 --> 00:10:18.519 round pick in my thirty team first year player draft. And again, it's 139 00:10:18.559 --> 00:10:22.799 not a true FYPD. As we talked about, it's more of a supplemental 140 00:10:22.879 --> 00:10:26.559 draft. So this is where the first international project prospects, the free agents 141 00:10:26.600 --> 00:10:31.039 that come over from Japan and Korea, the first year players from last year's 142 00:10:31.120 --> 00:10:35.720 draft, and whoever's left in the waiver wire. They're all available. You 143 00:10:35.720 --> 00:10:39.120 can't pick them up and touch anybody in the off season, but this draft 144 00:10:39.159 --> 00:10:41.759 you're allowed to swoop them. And I had a kind of back after the 145 00:10:41.759 --> 00:10:46.080 first round pick that I had just traded for and sort of as a throw 146 00:10:46.080 --> 00:10:48.279 in to another deal. And as I was looking at the draft board, 147 00:10:48.320 --> 00:10:52.360 you know, we'd done a lot of prospecting. We'd lined up a bunch 148 00:10:52.360 --> 00:10:54.960 of guys, have a huge, long queue, mostly of first year player 149 00:10:56.039 --> 00:10:58.519 draft guys, and the name that stuck out to me at the top of 150 00:10:58.519 --> 00:11:03.320 my board was Stephen Mattz. Like, if I'd picked fourth, I think 151 00:11:03.360 --> 00:11:07.759 I would have also taken Steven Mattz behind the big three Asian imports. And 152 00:11:07.039 --> 00:11:09.720 when I said this in the dog A discord, someone was like, you 153 00:11:09.759 --> 00:11:13.159 play in a league where Steven Mattz is relevant and I was like, yeah, 154 00:11:13.200 --> 00:11:18.039 I mean a this is a thirty teen points league, so any pitcher 155 00:11:18.080 --> 00:11:22.440 that has a job, they're relevant and worth rostering for somebody. But b 156 00:11:22.799 --> 00:11:26.120 as the more I thought about it, like Stephen Mattz is better than that. 157 00:11:26.279 --> 00:11:31.080 He's actually in that tier of quite good pictures that are underrated, partly 158 00:11:31.120 --> 00:11:37.159 because of injury concerns. And he started the year pretty poorly last year as 159 00:11:37.200 --> 00:11:41.720 well, and I think that has depressed his stock generally. But I wanted 160 00:11:41.759 --> 00:11:46.120 to talk just a touch about why Stephen Mattz is actually quite good. He's 161 00:11:46.279 --> 00:11:52.240 spent most of the last three years running a FIP of an almost identical three 162 00:11:52.240 --> 00:11:56.000 point seventy nine in twenty twenty one, three point seven eight in twenty twenty 163 00:11:56.039 --> 00:12:01.879 two, and three point seven five in twenty twenty three. The bugaboo is 164 00:12:01.919 --> 00:12:05.440 that over the last two years he's barely thrown one hundred and fifty innings, 165 00:12:05.679 --> 00:12:11.360 so like that's about half of a normal workload for a starter. And last 166 00:12:11.440 --> 00:12:16.120 year in particular, his first half was terrible, and then he turned it 167 00:12:16.159 --> 00:12:20.480 around after being demoted to the bullpen and pitched quite a bit better in the 168 00:12:20.639 --> 00:12:26.039 UH in the second half for six' five era in the first half and 169 00:12:26.200 --> 00:12:28.480 in the second half it was two point one six, and then he ended 170 00:12:28.480 --> 00:12:33.399 the season with a lat injury, so maybe that's another component to him being 171 00:12:33.679 --> 00:12:39.360 sort of underrated going into this year. But he's got a solid pitch mix 172 00:12:39.840 --> 00:12:45.919 that I think he's got answers for lefties and righty's. He doesn't have appreciable 173 00:12:45.960 --> 00:12:50.759 splits assuming he comes into the spring showing some health. I think he's got 174 00:12:50.799 --> 00:12:54.840 a rotation spot on lock for the Cardinals, and they've got a good defense 175 00:12:54.919 --> 00:12:58.720 that's a pitcher's park, so both of those things helped him play up. 176 00:13:00.080 --> 00:13:03.480 I just kind of buy the skills here. He limits walks, He gets 177 00:13:03.519 --> 00:13:07.399 a decent number of strikeouts in a small sample at the end of last year, 178 00:13:07.440 --> 00:13:11.000 and then in his full year in twenty twenty two, which again was 179 00:13:11.000 --> 00:13:15.080 also a bit of a partial season, he showed kind of a higher strikeout 180 00:13:15.159 --> 00:13:18.440 upside that he's approached before. But he was up to ten strikeouts per nine 181 00:13:18.759 --> 00:13:24.840 in those two stretches, and I think that that reflects that his curveball and 182 00:13:24.879 --> 00:13:28.720 his change up are good pitches that he can get swinging strikes with that change 183 00:13:28.799 --> 00:13:35.039 up. He gets called strikes with the curveball, and his sinker plays really 184 00:13:35.200 --> 00:13:37.840 well like he can get card strikes on either side. Of the plate and 185 00:13:37.919 --> 00:13:41.200 those things are a little bit less sticky than the swinging strikes, but it's 186 00:13:41.360 --> 00:13:46.639 these are plus pitches. And I think he's also upped his velocity a little 187 00:13:46.639 --> 00:13:50.399 bit in recent years. You know, he was a bit of a fireballer 188 00:13:50.639 --> 00:13:54.159 early on in his career and then the velocity has trended down. But I 189 00:13:54.159 --> 00:14:00.320 think his velocity on his two seamer was back up in the ninety five I've 190 00:14:00.559 --> 00:14:05.600 ranged this year and that is pretty good. So Steven Mattz, I think, 191 00:14:05.679 --> 00:14:09.960 is someone that if you've got ail slots to burn, if you've got 192 00:14:09.480 --> 00:14:15.600 a kind of roster that can take a flyer on somebody who might spend some 193 00:14:15.679 --> 00:14:20.279 time in the injured list, I think Stephen Mattz is absolutely worth rostering again 194 00:14:20.440 --> 00:14:24.399 a late draft pick in your mixed leagues. Certainly, I'm considering him in 195 00:14:24.440 --> 00:14:30.799 some NFBC formats in the later rounds because I just think the skills seem to 196 00:14:30.879 --> 00:14:35.240 still be there and health permitting, this could be a guy who runs you 197 00:14:35.639 --> 00:14:39.240 a three to seven er, potentially better in front of the defense. If 198 00:14:39.279 --> 00:14:43.679 the defense takes a step forward for the Cardinals like it has in previous years, 199 00:14:43.840 --> 00:14:48.960 then this is just a ton of value in a guy that people are 200 00:14:48.960 --> 00:14:54.759 writing off that sixteen people pass seventeen people passed on in my thirty team mix 201 00:14:54.879 --> 00:14:58.279 league points, and I just think that is crazy when a guy has this 202 00:14:58.360 --> 00:15:03.799 kind of skills and the opportunity that's that's upside for somebody that is I think 203 00:15:05.360 --> 00:15:07.799 under owned. Yeah, that's interesting. I don't think a Mats would have 204 00:15:07.919 --> 00:15:13.320 lasted that long in my thirty teen points similar drafts. I was surprised that 205 00:15:13.399 --> 00:15:16.480 he was still on the board. I mean, like I said, after 206 00:15:16.720 --> 00:15:20.759 Yamamoto, Imanaga and Lee, I think that's would have been fourth on my 207 00:15:20.840 --> 00:15:24.879 board, and especially in the way this format is set up, I just 208 00:15:24.919 --> 00:15:28.600 think he's thrilled to get him at pick eighteen or whatever it was before we 209 00:15:28.679 --> 00:15:31.440 came on. I think it had just come out a couple of hours ago. 210 00:15:31.519 --> 00:15:37.080 But I was had Nick Pollock's top four hundred starting pitchers for this season. 211 00:15:37.639 --> 00:15:41.480 He's slid in Matt's one fifty seven, with the first line being I 212 00:15:41.519 --> 00:15:45.559 don't buy it. So interesting he is. He is also one of the 213 00:15:45.600 --> 00:15:48.200 folks out there that are not not in the Mats camp. But yeah, 214 00:15:48.200 --> 00:15:54.879 and in NFBCS he's going average draft position of three to seventy one or average 215 00:15:54.960 --> 00:16:00.600 draft rank of three seventy one. I think his average draft position around four 216 00:16:00.720 --> 00:16:06.559 eighty. So I mean again, this is like more tailored towards some upside 217 00:16:06.559 --> 00:16:10.639 with a really late round pick for you or a deeper league. But I 218 00:16:11.080 --> 00:16:15.919 just think the skills are still there and Matt's is worth targeting. Yeah, 219 00:16:15.039 --> 00:16:18.960 No, I don't hate it. You know, Like we have talked about 220 00:16:18.279 --> 00:16:22.759 several times before, doing this sort of pitching B siding, there's a very 221 00:16:22.799 --> 00:16:26.679 different component to it than hitting. Right, I think it's it's much more 222 00:16:26.960 --> 00:16:34.720 we can see a very unpopular in fantasy arm go from obscurity to cy young 223 00:16:36.080 --> 00:16:41.200 consideration. We don't necessarily see these types of bats jump from yeah or that 224 00:16:41.279 --> 00:16:45.279 sort of lack of popularity to almost winning MVPs. Right, Pitching is much 225 00:16:45.320 --> 00:16:48.679 more wild west. I mean, this is part of why pitching is so 226 00:16:48.759 --> 00:16:52.840 much better than hitting, because in a lot of ways, anything can happen, 227 00:16:53.039 --> 00:16:56.759 and a lot of things like we'll probably highlight with a few guys and 228 00:16:56.799 --> 00:17:03.879 I'm going to talk about like things change relatively quick. We're gonna stick with 229 00:17:03.919 --> 00:17:07.039 the Cardinals. With my first guy here, I want to talk about Zach 230 00:17:07.079 --> 00:17:10.640 Thompson. Who got twenty six years old. He's got one hundred and one 231 00:17:10.720 --> 00:17:15.720 career major league innings. He's rostered in twenty two percent of fan tracks leagues, 232 00:17:15.720 --> 00:17:21.160 which is less than Maddix Bruns, McCary who we know you Love, 233 00:17:22.759 --> 00:17:29.000 Cole Wilcox, Sam Bachman, Jose bo In Woods, Simeon Woods, Richardson 234 00:17:29.279 --> 00:17:34.880 six seventy four, ADP and NFBC currently labeled the Swingman's six starter ish by 235 00:17:34.920 --> 00:17:41.480 Fangrafts. He has forty seven major league appearances with ten starts. Nine of 236 00:17:41.480 --> 00:17:45.119 those came last year. Zach Thompson is not without some pedigree. I believe 237 00:17:45.160 --> 00:17:48.440 he was a first round pick if I remember correctly, several years ago, 238 00:17:48.640 --> 00:17:52.960 and in kind of Cardinals fashion, maybe looked at by dynasty and fantasy owners. 239 00:17:53.079 --> 00:17:57.240 Is kind of a boring guy, lacking that electricity and that big K 240 00:17:57.559 --> 00:18:03.920 upside That was so But I'm excited to see the rest of Zach Thompson's career 241 00:18:03.960 --> 00:18:07.559 here if you just look at er from the last couple of years his first 242 00:18:07.599 --> 00:18:12.880 two MLB seasons two point zero eight in his first thirty four innings twenty twenty 243 00:18:12.880 --> 00:18:17.559 two, four point four to eight. His next sixty six innings in twenty 244 00:18:17.640 --> 00:18:19.519 twenty three. If you're just looking at that surface sort of stuff, you 245 00:18:19.599 --> 00:18:25.200 might not be getting the whole story here his whip too. His whip jumped 246 00:18:25.200 --> 00:18:27.160 from under one to one point four to two. But I think there were 247 00:18:27.200 --> 00:18:33.440 far more meaningful improvements or maintenance in areas in twenty twenty three than those drastic 248 00:18:33.480 --> 00:18:37.440 looking surface level changes. And I watched a decent amount of Thompson as a 249 00:18:37.440 --> 00:18:41.599 prospect, and he was always a little bit tricky for me because he didn't 250 00:18:41.640 --> 00:18:45.880 quite have the arsenal that got me too excited, and he never really had 251 00:18:45.920 --> 00:18:49.599 the execution that got me too excited. Neither were really bad, but nothing 252 00:18:49.680 --> 00:18:53.440 really in either direction made me like really want to kind of get excited, 253 00:18:53.519 --> 00:18:57.680 right, But he simplified things in twenty twenty three, not using the sinker. 254 00:18:59.000 --> 00:19:03.079 Now it is good to little bit tricky because he throws a slider that's 255 00:19:03.160 --> 00:19:06.559 labeled a cutter. But I think that's like there's some play in there. 256 00:19:06.640 --> 00:19:11.799 Sometimes it's more like a slutter. Sometimes he's throwing it more like a manipulates 257 00:19:11.799 --> 00:19:14.480 it a bit, I think so, I think so, But it gets 258 00:19:14.519 --> 00:19:18.200 kind of lumped up in stack cast as a cutter. I think he kind 259 00:19:18.240 --> 00:19:22.960 of ditched whatever side of that that stat cast was was calling more of a 260 00:19:23.000 --> 00:19:27.960 slider last year. By nature, He's really a four seam fastball curveball guy. 261 00:19:29.079 --> 00:19:32.799 Curveball was always kind of the more lauded. I think it got like 262 00:19:32.920 --> 00:19:37.160 sixties right as a prospect, but just from a production standpoint, now, 263 00:19:37.200 --> 00:19:42.839 granted the usage was only seventeen percent. This manipulated slider slutter cutter probably his 264 00:19:42.880 --> 00:19:48.480 most productive pitch, definitely getting Chase, getting swinging strikes. His four seamer 265 00:19:48.799 --> 00:19:55.200 averaged ninety three point six, which is just a smidge velocity wise below MLB 266 00:19:55.359 --> 00:20:00.000 average used that about fifty four percent of the time. Curveball was twenty seven 267 00:20:00.039 --> 00:20:03.480 percent of time, And like I mentioned the cutter slutter thing, there's not 268 00:20:03.559 --> 00:20:06.000 really a change up in the arsenal. But you know a lot of times 269 00:20:06.160 --> 00:20:10.119 you talk about like stuff plus models and those types of things. The big 270 00:20:10.200 --> 00:20:14.400 missing point, right is the relationship that the pitches have with one another, 271 00:20:14.440 --> 00:20:18.240 with which in my opinion, is a giant part of the puzzle of what 272 00:20:18.359 --> 00:20:22.599 makes a successful pitcher. But I think with Thompson there is I think good 273 00:20:22.720 --> 00:20:27.400 usage and pitch selection and sequencing with him, and there's several instances in pitching 274 00:20:27.519 --> 00:20:33.559 history where a guy is simply changing the sequencing totally changed the production of a 275 00:20:33.640 --> 00:20:36.880 pitch. You know, I think we talked about Zach Graanke when prior, 276 00:20:36.920 --> 00:20:41.440 but the three offerings and the sort of stuff plus models are all around MLB 277 00:20:41.559 --> 00:20:45.119 average. He ran a twenty five point one k percentage, which is nicely 278 00:20:45.119 --> 00:20:51.359 above MLB average, which is twenty one point six percent for starters and above 279 00:20:51.440 --> 00:20:56.680 the reliever's average of twenty three point seven percent. His eight point seven percent 280 00:20:56.799 --> 00:21:00.000 walk rate is lower than the average relievers and just a had higher than the 281 00:21:00.039 --> 00:21:06.000 average MLB starters. He runs a nice ground ball rate forty seven point one 282 00:21:06.079 --> 00:21:10.720 percent, and then like as a starter over his last ten appearances last last 283 00:21:10.799 --> 00:21:12.880 year, which is really his first go at getting to start in the bigs, 284 00:21:12.880 --> 00:21:15.880 you know, he ran like a four to three eight era over forty 285 00:21:15.920 --> 00:21:22.200 nine innings. He's struck out fifty one the only fourteen walks. Guy hit 286 00:21:22.279 --> 00:21:25.880 a little bit, but nothing, nothing too crazy. He might feel kind 287 00:21:25.920 --> 00:21:29.599 of really vanilla at this juncture, but it might be like a vanilla with 288 00:21:29.680 --> 00:21:34.519 some chocolate syrup on top, Like we like the sum of all parts kind 289 00:21:34.519 --> 00:21:38.400 of guys, right, and he's got I think the weaponry weaponry here is 290 00:21:38.839 --> 00:21:44.400 fine. I think if there's just a little bit of elite in his execution 291 00:21:44.559 --> 00:21:47.640 in command, which you know, maybe that's just wishful thinking, but I 292 00:21:47.680 --> 00:21:49.359 think he could he could be really good. You know, we talk about 293 00:21:49.440 --> 00:21:56.599 DL Hall types and Joe Boyles who have these astronomical walk rates and you know, 294 00:21:56.720 --> 00:22:02.119 execution questions, and we're always hoping on on better stuff there, improvements 295 00:22:02.160 --> 00:22:03.799 there, but we don't really talk about these types too much. And what 296 00:22:03.960 --> 00:22:07.240 just a little bit of improvement can do, I don't know, just kind 297 00:22:07.240 --> 00:22:10.599 of in my opinion, if that happened here, I think you could be 298 00:22:10.599 --> 00:22:15.279 looking at an extremely valuable fantasy piece with a nice trunk of that counting stat 299 00:22:15.359 --> 00:22:18.279 k love. The biggest bugaboo with him is going to be limiting the hard 300 00:22:18.359 --> 00:22:22.640 contact, you know, which shocking. It's a huge issue for every pitcher 301 00:22:22.680 --> 00:22:25.960 in the majors. But you know, I think that could come with a 302 00:22:25.960 --> 00:22:27.960 little bit more tightening of the screws. Wouldn't be the first guy to do 303 00:22:29.039 --> 00:22:30.759 such a thing on the back half of his twenties. I mean, we 304 00:22:30.799 --> 00:22:34.599 see guys. To me, the pitching prime is like thirty thirty one. 305 00:22:34.720 --> 00:22:38.400 I mean, we see Merril Kelly types get real tight and a lot more 306 00:22:38.519 --> 00:22:44.039 fantasy exciting, much older age than Thompson here. And I don't think I'm 307 00:22:44.079 --> 00:22:48.839 the only one out there who thinks Zach Thompson could get a little bit more 308 00:22:48.880 --> 00:22:52.240 exciting. I think there's something to that. And one of the things I 309 00:22:52.319 --> 00:22:56.279 was thinking about as it related to Matt's as well, is that I expect 310 00:22:56.279 --> 00:23:00.680 the Cardinals defense is going to be better. It was rated pretty poorly last 311 00:23:00.759 --> 00:23:07.240 year. And whether it's a combination of Victor Scott coming up and playing center 312 00:23:07.319 --> 00:23:11.319 field, Jordan Walker getting better, a little bit less time of our buddy 313 00:23:11.440 --> 00:23:15.559 Alec Burlson out there. Even in Arnatto bounce back, I think Edmund plays 314 00:23:15.680 --> 00:23:21.920 really good defense. There's room just to see the batted Balllock swing back. 315 00:23:21.960 --> 00:23:26.200 Our guys way here and Thompson and Matt's both might benefit from just that natural 316 00:23:26.480 --> 00:23:32.039 regression to the mean in a positive direction. His three pitches like all Hubber, 317 00:23:32.240 --> 00:23:36.200 They're all like thirty thirty one percent CSW, which is nice. He 318 00:23:36.279 --> 00:23:41.839 gets average to above average chase on all three offerings. Like I don't know, 319 00:23:41.000 --> 00:23:45.200 he just lacks that super you know, maybe he's like a fifty command 320 00:23:45.240 --> 00:23:48.519 guy or fifty five guy, like if you could be like a sixty, 321 00:23:48.599 --> 00:23:52.359 to put it in scouting terms, I think he could be really good. 322 00:23:52.440 --> 00:23:56.000 I mean it wouldn't be the most radical change we've ever seen a picture make 323 00:23:56.279 --> 00:23:59.400 over one year, but at this price. I put out some I put 324 00:23:59.440 --> 00:24:02.720 out some Trey offers, some of my thirties and stuff. We know the 325 00:24:02.799 --> 00:24:06.200 role is maybe questionable. I don't know if he's maybe he earns the fifth 326 00:24:06.240 --> 00:24:10.039 starter spot there. More likely he's probably going to be the next man up 327 00:24:10.039 --> 00:24:12.559 when someone gets hurt, and we know that that's gonna happen, mm hmm. 328 00:24:14.039 --> 00:24:17.440 And that what else you got for us? I wanted to give a 329 00:24:17.480 --> 00:24:22.480 shout to an old favorite of mine, under the radar guy who's coming back 330 00:24:22.480 --> 00:24:26.000 from injury. JT. Brewbaker, Brew Baker. I have dated brew Baker 331 00:24:26.160 --> 00:24:32.880 several times, all sorts of leads. Is he bad? Is he hurt? 332 00:24:32.960 --> 00:24:37.079 I don't remember he's hurt. He had TJ in spring of last year 333 00:24:37.160 --> 00:24:41.160 during spring training, missed all of twenty twenty three. Okay, but I 334 00:24:41.279 --> 00:24:48.240 was kind of on him as maybe a semi sneaky breakout guy going into twenty 335 00:24:48.279 --> 00:24:51.039 twenty three, so I was really bummed. I had him in an N 336 00:24:51.279 --> 00:24:56.359 only league and in a deeper dynasty league as somebody that I got essentially for 337 00:24:56.440 --> 00:25:00.359 free. In both spots, he's a sinker slider guy primarily, but his 338 00:25:00.480 --> 00:25:04.880 curveball is sneaky pretty good, and he'll mix in a four seam and a 339 00:25:04.960 --> 00:25:10.599 change up, neither of which I think is particularly effective, but both show 340 00:25:10.680 --> 00:25:15.559 flashes, both just being a different look than his sinker slider primary approach, 341 00:25:15.799 --> 00:25:19.960 but also I think when he locates them well, they can play up fine 342 00:25:21.039 --> 00:25:23.559 enough. His four seam fastball is actually sort of interesting, and then it 343 00:25:23.599 --> 00:25:29.519 gets a lot more horizontal run the average four seam. I have seen a 344 00:25:29.519 --> 00:25:33.559 bit of weak contact come off of that. Now, could they tweak it 345 00:25:33.640 --> 00:25:37.480 so that it maybe it was even more effective? Probably? But I like 346 00:25:37.680 --> 00:25:44.480 Rubaker overall. He's pretty good at maximizing that his portfolio, and he's been 347 00:25:45.119 --> 00:25:48.839 in the course over three hundred and fifteen and two thirds innings in his major 348 00:25:48.920 --> 00:25:55.279 league career, has run a twenty three percent strikeout rate and a sub eight 349 00:25:55.319 --> 00:26:00.519 percent walk rate, so both better than average. I guess the rate's kind 350 00:26:00.559 --> 00:26:03.880 of like right about average, maybe just a Hairover for starters, but the 351 00:26:03.880 --> 00:26:10.799 walk rate is better than big league average and a solid fifteen point five percent 352 00:26:10.880 --> 00:26:14.880 K minus BB over his career. He also gets a decent number of grounders. 353 00:26:15.000 --> 00:26:18.640 You might like to see him get a few more. He's been right 354 00:26:18.640 --> 00:26:21.240 at forty four percent, and that's what he was in twenty twenty two. 355 00:26:21.519 --> 00:26:26.480 But he looked pretty good in that spring training before he got hurt. And 356 00:26:26.880 --> 00:26:32.079 he's I think almost twelve months removed TJ, So he's ten months removed right 357 00:26:32.119 --> 00:26:36.000 now from TJ. Likely to be back in the middle like May I think 358 00:26:36.119 --> 00:26:41.759 is his estimated recovery timeline, and he's going nine to seventy five is his 359 00:26:41.880 --> 00:26:47.720 average draft rank in NFBCS. I'm sure you can get him for a song 360 00:26:47.880 --> 00:26:52.839 in your dynasty leagues. His average draft is seven hundred and forty nine, 361 00:26:52.079 --> 00:26:59.240 so very near the last picks in those drafts, and I like that in 362 00:26:59.759 --> 00:27:03.680 a in that kind of format. He still the projections are a little bit 363 00:27:03.839 --> 00:27:07.279 soft on him. The bat hates him for some reason. Steamer's the high 364 00:27:07.480 --> 00:27:14.039 projection at a four or five three ARRA projection projections are projecting him to be 365 00:27:14.119 --> 00:27:18.079 worse than he's been over three hundred innings in his career, more walks, 366 00:27:18.519 --> 00:27:22.599 fewer strikeouts, and I just didn't see that coming out of him in the 367 00:27:22.680 --> 00:27:27.920 times when I had him and watched him. I just like it as an 368 00:27:29.400 --> 00:27:33.680 injury bounce back that people have forgotten about. I don't think he's going to 369 00:27:33.680 --> 00:27:38.079 be crowded out of that Pittsburgh rotation. Pittsburgh does have some really nice minor 370 00:27:38.160 --> 00:27:42.559 league arms coming up, but I really don't see the need for them to 371 00:27:42.640 --> 00:27:45.799 push any of them. So, like I would be sort of surprised if 372 00:27:45.799 --> 00:27:48.559 we saw a lot of Paul Skins this year, I'd be surprised if we 373 00:27:48.599 --> 00:27:52.119 saw a lot of Jared Jones or some of the other upper Miners guys. 374 00:27:52.440 --> 00:27:56.920 So I think Brubaker is going to come back in May and get slotted right 375 00:27:56.960 --> 00:28:00.880 back into that rotation. It's sort of a boring profile, but I think 376 00:28:00.880 --> 00:28:04.720 it plays. So brew Baker is one like, don't forget about him in 377 00:28:04.759 --> 00:28:10.279 your drafts. If you need a solid back end start throw, I think 378 00:28:10.319 --> 00:28:14.079 you could do worse. And as an injured throw in a trade, I 379 00:28:14.119 --> 00:28:17.839 definitely would be asking after burw Baker nice. I think brew Baker is very 380 00:28:17.880 --> 00:28:22.440 solid MLB B side arms selection. Yeah, I know that he's definitely helped 381 00:28:22.440 --> 00:28:26.720 some of my team's different formats too when he was healthy and he had some 382 00:28:26.839 --> 00:28:30.200 decent little runs. My next guy. To be clear here, I had 383 00:28:30.519 --> 00:28:36.920 Ryan Feldner cueued up to talk about here well before this morning's events with mister 384 00:28:37.240 --> 00:28:40.640 Cleig. But I want to talk about Ryan Feltner. And I know Colorado 385 00:28:40.920 --> 00:28:47.119 Pitcher could eliminate him from your consideration in different formats, and I understand all 386 00:28:47.200 --> 00:28:52.160 that. But we talked pitch for Oklahoma City. Yeah, yeah, yeah, 387 00:28:52.160 --> 00:28:56.720 I don't agree with that, but we talk We talked about making some 388 00:28:56.839 --> 00:29:00.680 changes. Right here's one that I think we got a little glimpse of. 389 00:29:00.839 --> 00:29:03.599 Feldner had a very scary injury. I don't know if you saw that, 390 00:29:03.759 --> 00:29:08.039 Matt, but he got a line drive back Adam and fractured his skull and 391 00:29:08.160 --> 00:29:14.119 put him out from what May middle of May to end of September. He 392 00:29:14.200 --> 00:29:17.400 came back for two starts, which was nice to see him come back. 393 00:29:17.440 --> 00:29:22.599 I mean, it was a potentially life threatening situation. But Feldner's twenty seven 394 00:29:22.720 --> 00:29:26.799 years old. He's logged one hundred and forty seven career MLB innings over the 395 00:29:26.880 --> 00:29:30.200 last three seasons. He's currently rostered in five percent of leagues. I mean 396 00:29:30.440 --> 00:29:33.519 that, you know, that's that's less than some of our B sides, 397 00:29:33.880 --> 00:29:41.240 less than Rockies pitching prospect Jordi Vargas. He's currently going to nfbc's ADP is 398 00:29:41.279 --> 00:29:45.480 seven to fifty one, currently labeled the fourth starter in the Rockies rotation by 399 00:29:45.519 --> 00:29:51.119 Fangrafts. I've seen you little blurbs and stuff that he'll be competing for a 400 00:29:51.200 --> 00:29:56.519 rotation job. I think Feldner's pretty solid rotation piece heading into the season for 401 00:29:56.559 --> 00:30:00.559 the Rockies. His thirty two MLB appearances, thirty one one of them have 402 00:30:00.640 --> 00:30:04.759 been starts. Twenty twenty two nineteen starts, twenty appearances, five eighty three 403 00:30:04.880 --> 00:30:08.680 ERA one point four to one whip. You know, stuff that isn't going 404 00:30:08.720 --> 00:30:12.440 to help a lot of our fantasy leads. Here twenty twenty three started, 405 00:30:12.480 --> 00:30:18.400 he got eight starts in before the injury. Again big era, an even 406 00:30:18.480 --> 00:30:22.480 larger whip. Right. But and I heard Feldner talk about this too. 407 00:30:22.680 --> 00:30:26.920 It did seem to me and to him that there were some really positive changes 408 00:30:26.960 --> 00:30:30.559 starting before the injury. He felt like he was on his way to a 409 00:30:30.599 --> 00:30:34.599 breakout season, and looking at some metrics you might see why he may have 410 00:30:34.680 --> 00:30:41.039 felt that he went from a thirty point four percent hard contact rate to nineteen 411 00:30:41.079 --> 00:30:45.079 point five percent, which that's that's top of the scale, that's ninety eight 412 00:30:45.160 --> 00:30:48.759 percentile. Home runs were an issue for him in twenty twenty two one point 413 00:30:48.839 --> 00:30:52.799 four to eight per nine, fifteen point four percent home run. The fly 414 00:30:52.880 --> 00:30:56.759 ball rate. Well, the home run per nine dropped two point four to 415 00:30:56.759 --> 00:31:00.880 two, which is ninety eight percentile. The home run per fly ball dropped 416 00:31:00.880 --> 00:31:06.880 to five point one percent ninety ninth percentile. His weak contact went from four 417 00:31:06.920 --> 00:31:10.880 point three percent to seven point six. Hitters pulled the ball thirty six point 418 00:31:10.880 --> 00:31:14.680 one percent of the time against him. That's ninth percentile. Like in the 419 00:31:14.759 --> 00:31:18.559 good way right, home run the flyball right, that's an astronomy. It's 420 00:31:18.599 --> 00:31:22.759 a fantastic five point one percent is ninety nine percentile. Ground ball rate ticked 421 00:31:22.839 --> 00:31:25.400 up a little bit, but I think it was more than like him coming 422 00:31:25.440 --> 00:31:30.440 up like sixty fourth percentile. Now his arsenal, he's heavy slider guy. 423 00:31:30.559 --> 00:31:33.880 Right, thirty one point four percent. Pitch that he used the most most 424 00:31:33.039 --> 00:31:37.440 performance wise, it's not that great. Gets some chase on it, but 425 00:31:37.480 --> 00:31:40.680 he doesn't get he doesn't get whiffs on it. Part of the reason why 426 00:31:40.680 --> 00:31:44.680 he threw it a lot is the for seamer, both by stuff plus metrics 427 00:31:44.839 --> 00:31:48.640 and performance just wasn't very good. It was hard, it was firm. 428 00:31:48.960 --> 00:31:52.359 On the season, it averaged ninety four point eight miles per hour, but 429 00:31:52.480 --> 00:31:56.039 it's just not a very good shape. He coming into the season he felt 430 00:31:56.119 --> 00:32:00.799 like his sinker was his best pitch. The sinker is not his best pitch. 431 00:32:00.880 --> 00:32:04.640 He has since said that sort of moved on from that. And here's 432 00:32:04.799 --> 00:32:07.400 the exciting part, Matt and the change that happens. When he was hurt, 433 00:32:07.599 --> 00:32:13.279 he went worked out at the new Rockies pitching lab. Yes that's true, 434 00:32:13.400 --> 00:32:15.920 the Rockies have a pitching lab now. And that fastball he came back 435 00:32:15.960 --> 00:32:20.440 with a couple more ticks on it. He hit ninety nine a few times, 436 00:32:20.480 --> 00:32:23.119 which he had never done before. It averaged let's see, so before 437 00:32:23.160 --> 00:32:27.480 the injury was looking at the game logs here, ninety four point one, 438 00:32:27.599 --> 00:32:30.799 ninety four, ninety four point four. He came back, it averaged ninety 439 00:32:30.880 --> 00:32:34.559 six ninety five and a half. Of course you got later in those those 440 00:32:34.640 --> 00:32:37.880 last few outings and he would dip back down to his previous velocity. I've 441 00:32:37.920 --> 00:32:43.000 heard him talk about how he believes that those changes are real. He believes 442 00:32:43.000 --> 00:32:45.880 that they're going to hold. So long story short here, the biggest thing 443 00:32:45.960 --> 00:32:51.480 that was missing, I think from Feldner's arsenal was an effective fastball. And 444 00:32:51.519 --> 00:32:54.920 if you're a velocity purist, he already went from a hard fastball to now 445 00:32:55.160 --> 00:33:00.440 more top of the scale. He's been talking about changing his plan of attack 446 00:33:00.519 --> 00:33:02.640 to becoming more of a power pitcher. Now well, he put up great 447 00:33:02.720 --> 00:33:07.359 numbers for fantasy purposes. I don't know. I doubt it. I had 448 00:33:07.359 --> 00:33:09.400 been stacked against him. Every bat at ball, whether it be on the 449 00:33:09.400 --> 00:33:13.400 ground, a line drive, or a fly ball in that park is in 450 00:33:13.440 --> 00:33:15.799 the bat at ball's favor. But we have a guy who's gonna be different, 451 00:33:16.000 --> 00:33:20.480 and I don't know, Let's see what it looks like and if it 452 00:33:20.519 --> 00:33:23.160 goes well, this is you know, an example of a pitcher making the 453 00:33:23.279 --> 00:33:29.319 change relatively soon that could change a lot of outcomes production wise. Well, 454 00:33:29.359 --> 00:33:32.200 and again, not to harp on the defense, but I think the Rockies 455 00:33:32.559 --> 00:33:37.799 have the potential to have one of the better defenses in the game. Running 456 00:33:37.799 --> 00:33:39.799 out there, you know, Doyle is one of the best center fielders and 457 00:33:40.000 --> 00:33:45.720 best pure defenders just period out there. I think if you're looking at Tovar 458 00:33:45.000 --> 00:33:51.359 and McMahon and Rogers, like that's pretty good skill positions in the infield. 459 00:33:51.559 --> 00:33:54.640 And they've got some other good athletes to run out there in the outfield with 460 00:33:55.119 --> 00:34:00.000 Nolan Jones too. So I like that defense. And of course it's still 461 00:34:00.039 --> 00:34:06.200 impossible to play great defense in Colorado. It's the park is just way too 462 00:34:06.279 --> 00:34:09.239 big and the ball just flies way too far. But I think those sorts 463 00:34:09.280 --> 00:34:15.000 of things help incrementally, and you might be surprised at the skills, especially 464 00:34:15.000 --> 00:34:17.519 on the road for some of those guys, some of these pictures, like 465 00:34:17.599 --> 00:34:22.000 you're saying, I could definitely see them playing up even more on the road. 466 00:34:22.159 --> 00:34:23.840 Yeah. I mean, well, for one, it can't get much 467 00:34:23.840 --> 00:34:29.079 worse than it did last year pitching wise, starting pitching wise for the Rockies. 468 00:34:29.199 --> 00:34:31.840 I mean, if you can limit hard contact like that, not leat 469 00:34:31.960 --> 00:34:35.880 hitters, get out in front, and not give up home runs, I 470 00:34:35.880 --> 00:34:37.960 mean, you're going to give yourself the best chances that you can in chorus 471 00:34:38.000 --> 00:34:40.639 Field. So I don't know, I know, I'm a Rockies fan, 472 00:34:40.679 --> 00:34:45.480 but I'm kind of excited to see what this new look Feldner looks like and 473 00:34:45.559 --> 00:34:49.159 if one of these guys can put up some decent numbers, maybe decent enough 474 00:34:49.199 --> 00:34:52.159 to help our fantasy leagues, you know, Feldner will be playable. Every 475 00:34:52.320 --> 00:34:55.480 starting pitcher is going to be, you know, potentially on the table in 476 00:34:55.519 --> 00:35:00.119 a thirty teamer thirtyeen points especially, so I don't know, we'll see, 477 00:35:00.400 --> 00:35:06.880 let's go to another kind of deeper league option. And especially I would say, 478 00:35:06.920 --> 00:35:13.039 probably not that interesting for your roto formats. But Wade Miley man, 479 00:35:13.239 --> 00:35:16.199 he just keeps sticking around. Oh. I love that you brought up with 480 00:35:16.320 --> 00:35:21.760 Miley. I thought you might because he shares some things in common with your 481 00:35:22.079 --> 00:35:28.639 your boy Mark Burley. He's got a six pitch mix that he mixes pretty 482 00:35:28.679 --> 00:35:32.679 well. Three of those are his go to in his four seen fastball, 483 00:35:32.960 --> 00:35:37.239 his cutter, his most used pitch, and his change up. But he 484 00:35:37.320 --> 00:35:44.800 also mixes in a curveball occasionally, and a sinker and a slider, and 485 00:35:45.199 --> 00:35:47.639 his bread and butter for the last few years has been the cutter. It's 486 00:35:47.719 --> 00:35:52.320 the pitch he throws the most. He has incredible command of It will come 487 00:35:52.480 --> 00:35:58.199 into righty's we'll backdoor it to lefties, front hip it to lefties like He's 488 00:35:58.519 --> 00:36:04.280 moved that pitch around and it is his primary weapon in getting hard content or 489 00:36:04.320 --> 00:36:08.000 getting inducing soft contact rather because he doesn't miss many bats. He never did 490 00:36:08.119 --> 00:36:15.000 even in his peak. Now he's solidly in the six strikeouts per nine, 491 00:36:15.320 --> 00:36:20.840 but he still can induce scround balls only six percent last year, but fifty 492 00:36:20.880 --> 00:36:25.320 two percent the year before, which is plus plus. His velocity rebounded after 493 00:36:25.800 --> 00:36:30.719 an ugly stint with the Cubs in twenty twenty two, and you know it's 494 00:36:30.920 --> 00:36:36.159 ninety, but it's plays because he gets good movement and again has really good 495 00:36:36.199 --> 00:36:42.679 command. And I wonder if he underperformed in some of his strikeout metrics last 496 00:36:42.719 --> 00:36:45.480 year. He ran one of the lowest strikeout rates of his career last year 497 00:36:45.559 --> 00:36:49.719 over one hundred and twenty innings with the Brewers. But I wonder if we're 498 00:36:49.719 --> 00:36:52.960 going to see that rebound positively a little bit next year, because I think 499 00:36:53.000 --> 00:37:00.519 his slider shape is slightly different than it has been in previous year and might 500 00:37:00.760 --> 00:37:06.880 actually be a pitch we're throwing more. So he still is going to lead 501 00:37:06.960 --> 00:37:09.960 with his cutter and change up and then mix that four seam fastball at the 502 00:37:09.960 --> 00:37:15.119 top of the zone and inside to both lefties. And righties to get soft 503 00:37:15.159 --> 00:37:19.159 contact. But I think mixing in a few more sliders. I think currently 504 00:37:19.199 --> 00:37:23.119 he tends to throw that about seven or so percent of the time, and 505 00:37:23.159 --> 00:37:28.679 I wonder if he bumped that up to something like twelve or twelve to fifteen 506 00:37:28.719 --> 00:37:32.039 percent of the time, whether we might see an uptick in his swinging swinging 507 00:37:32.039 --> 00:37:37.239 strike rates and therefore strikeouts because it's a pitch that has more horizontal movement than 508 00:37:37.320 --> 00:37:44.960 average, and especially compared to his cutter, which doesn't move side to side. 509 00:37:44.960 --> 00:37:47.559 It's much more of a downward shaped cutter. That's how he gets ground 510 00:37:47.639 --> 00:37:52.119 balls and soft contact. But mixing in something that sweeps a little bit more 511 00:37:52.320 --> 00:37:57.000 across the zone and out of the zone as hitters are thinking, oh, 512 00:37:57.039 --> 00:38:00.599 this is the cutter, and then it's the slider that is down in a 513 00:38:00.639 --> 00:38:01.880 way to a lefty, I wonder if he might be able to get a 514 00:38:01.880 --> 00:38:06.320 few more strikeouts with that. He saw quite a bit of success in limited 515 00:38:06.559 --> 00:38:09.400 show of that slider. It was actually his best pitch I think by run 516 00:38:09.519 --> 00:38:15.719 value per one hundred in a yeah, it was almost a little more than 517 00:38:15.760 --> 00:38:19.920 fifty percent more valuable than his cutter. Now, obviously the cutter he threw 518 00:38:20.000 --> 00:38:22.000 way more and so you might put a little more trust in that. But 519 00:38:22.119 --> 00:38:25.679 I think it's sort of a hidden fourth pitch that he might lean on a 520 00:38:25.679 --> 00:38:30.079 bit more next year. And add that to the fact that he's definitely going 521 00:38:30.119 --> 00:38:35.199 to get a lot of run in that Milwaukee rotation, especially after Burns got 522 00:38:35.320 --> 00:38:39.199 unceremoniously shipped out, and in your deeper leagues, that volume plays, and 523 00:38:39.280 --> 00:38:43.280 I think I'm just here to say that while I don't expect him to be 524 00:38:43.360 --> 00:38:46.079 a three one six, three one four er guy like he's been the last 525 00:38:46.119 --> 00:38:51.639 couple of years, I think it's worth noting the performance even though the strikeouts 526 00:38:51.679 --> 00:38:54.679 aren't really going to be there. So you might get some quality volume here. 527 00:38:54.920 --> 00:39:00.960 Think for for one er over something like a hundred in thirty one hundred 528 00:39:00.960 --> 00:39:05.960 and fifty innings, and that's super useful. So don't write off Wade Miley 529 00:39:06.079 --> 00:39:08.960 just yet. I think there still is some pitch tweaking that he can do, 530 00:39:09.159 --> 00:39:13.679 and maybe that he's already started doing, and that that might lead to 531 00:39:14.159 --> 00:39:17.840 continued performance as he continues to get older, aging like a fine wine or 532 00:39:17.960 --> 00:39:22.000 cheese. I guess that's better from Milwaukee. I'm always down for some Wade 533 00:39:22.039 --> 00:39:27.000 Miley love and what makes me love him even more is, I think probably 534 00:39:27.079 --> 00:39:30.599 his worst stretch of his career, he decided to use on the Cubs. 535 00:39:31.320 --> 00:39:35.599 He would love that. And this is how crazy thirty teen points leagues might 536 00:39:35.639 --> 00:39:38.079 be. In that but like Miley was, like, legit my ace in 537 00:39:38.119 --> 00:39:42.679 the thirty teen points League team for a good stretch last year and that team 538 00:39:42.719 --> 00:39:46.159 made the playoffs. Nice. You can't do it with such types in those 539 00:39:46.360 --> 00:39:49.360 Is that the show? Is that the one that I'm in? No, 540 00:39:49.559 --> 00:39:52.679 because that that league's tough, like the pitching in that league. Man, 541 00:39:52.760 --> 00:39:55.519 I was running out there ready to start the year with Dean Kramer as my 542 00:39:55.719 --> 00:39:59.559 ace, and a lot of people love Dean Kramer. I like him, 543 00:39:59.599 --> 00:40:02.280 but I I was not really excited for him to be my ace. Right 544 00:40:05.039 --> 00:40:07.159 all right? I want to talk about a guy who I admit, after 545 00:40:07.280 --> 00:40:12.920 I have dug in on him here more, I traded him to mister Quagg 546 00:40:13.239 --> 00:40:15.920 in RAS thirty and I regret it now, well maybe I'll regret it. 547 00:40:15.960 --> 00:40:22.199 But I want to talk about Johnny Burrito, who, as a prospect back 548 00:40:22.239 --> 00:40:25.599 in twenty twenty one, was very much kind of like a B side ass 549 00:40:25.639 --> 00:40:30.480 guy, right, someone I knew nothing about turned on and I legit was 550 00:40:30.559 --> 00:40:35.559 kind of blown away and became very much a fan. But I was just 551 00:40:35.639 --> 00:40:38.800 too naive at the time. I just thought, Hey, I don't think 552 00:40:38.800 --> 00:40:43.440 this guy's stuff is good enough. But of course I love the execution in 553 00:40:43.480 --> 00:40:45.800 the command, right, Matt. So I'm like going, I don't think 554 00:40:45.840 --> 00:40:47.559 this. I don't know if this guy has the stuff for you know, 555 00:40:47.599 --> 00:40:51.440 no one's really talking about him. You know, I'm not going to put 556 00:40:51.519 --> 00:40:55.519 him out there, right, which I no longer subscribed to such ideas. 557 00:40:55.800 --> 00:41:00.400 But Johnny Brito, it turns out, gets to the Major League and we 558 00:41:00.480 --> 00:41:05.760 get to know more about it, has like really good weapons, really good 559 00:41:05.840 --> 00:41:07.519 weapons. I knew he could kind of spin it. I knew he could 560 00:41:07.559 --> 00:41:14.679 spin it. I know East West game looked really good. He's really interested 561 00:41:14.760 --> 00:41:16.480 me in a lot of ways. So he's he's twenty five years old. 562 00:41:17.039 --> 00:41:21.320 Last year was his first year in the bigs. We got in ninety in 563 00:41:21.360 --> 00:41:24.280 the third innings. He's rastered in thirty percent of leagues, which is less 564 00:41:24.320 --> 00:41:30.599 than Grisepho throwing Susannah barrierra, which is kind of wild to me. He's 565 00:41:30.679 --> 00:41:36.199 going like seven point fifty in NFBC Vangrass has him down in the Triple A 566 00:41:36.400 --> 00:41:40.239 currently labeled like the seventh sp but he's behind several names I don't think are 567 00:41:40.320 --> 00:41:45.920 a lot to make the rotation there they happen behind. They have him behind 568 00:41:45.400 --> 00:41:51.840 right now, it's Musgrove, Darvish, King, Pedro Avila, Randy Vasquez, 569 00:41:52.360 --> 00:41:55.840 and then down in Triple A they got Adrian Morejean and then Brito. 570 00:41:57.639 --> 00:42:00.320 I know, yeah, he's gonna get some run. I think, yeah, 571 00:42:00.400 --> 00:42:02.760 yeah. I think they initially had him as like their long reliever on 572 00:42:02.800 --> 00:42:06.480 their point being, I think he's in the mix. I think he can 573 00:42:06.519 --> 00:42:08.840 win a job in the rotation. If not, maybe he's you know, 574 00:42:08.960 --> 00:42:13.360 sitting as their long reliever. But there's gonna be some major league starts this 575 00:42:13.440 --> 00:42:17.159 season. Now the stuff like the stuff. Plus he's got a two seam 576 00:42:17.199 --> 00:42:20.159 well, I don't know if they call it a sinker. I think they 577 00:42:20.159 --> 00:42:22.800 call it a sinker, sinker, two seamer whatever. Now you could see 578 00:42:22.920 --> 00:42:27.639 that it's guy. They had some wicked life to it. But looking at 579 00:42:27.800 --> 00:42:34.440 PLV pictureless stuff plus model, they gave it a five point two, which 580 00:42:34.480 --> 00:42:37.559 is pretty off the charts for a two seane fastball. For a sinker that's 581 00:42:37.599 --> 00:42:43.280 really high. I'm not the biggest stuff plus guy, it's measuring some tools 582 00:42:43.280 --> 00:42:45.039 in the vacuum, you know. Like we mentioned, there's there's a lot, 583 00:42:45.320 --> 00:42:49.599 a lot of other things I think in play that are more so or 584 00:42:49.719 --> 00:42:52.400 just as important, and I think Brito's a great, a great example of 585 00:42:52.440 --> 00:42:57.360 this. Like his curveball got a five point four to one his change up 586 00:42:57.440 --> 00:43:01.440 above average, which as a press his change was labeled a sixty. It 587 00:43:01.480 --> 00:43:05.800 was supposed to be his best pitch. The other pitches weren't graded out so 588 00:43:05.960 --> 00:43:09.360 hot fifties and forty fives and things. He did get the sixty control and 589 00:43:09.400 --> 00:43:14.280 command grades. There's also a four seemer, but I think the four seamer 590 00:43:14.360 --> 00:43:17.960 is far and away, I think his worst pitch. But last year he 591 00:43:19.039 --> 00:43:22.960 used the two seemer thirty two percent of the time, change up twenty nine 592 00:43:22.000 --> 00:43:27.199 percent of the time, curveball twenty percent of the time, the four seemer 593 00:43:27.320 --> 00:43:30.360 seventeen percent of the time. He has some phlocity. His sinker averaged ninety 594 00:43:30.400 --> 00:43:36.639 six miles per hour. What I think Brita's biggest issue is so he's got 595 00:43:36.639 --> 00:43:39.679 these these nice looking tools or whatever, but it's kind of like I got 596 00:43:39.679 --> 00:43:45.159 a hammer and a chainsaw. They're not really like tools that go together all 597 00:43:45.199 --> 00:43:50.360 that well, Right, he's a two seam change up guy with velocities at 598 00:43:50.679 --> 00:43:53.239 ninety six and eighty eight. Like I don't know, there's there's some sort 599 00:43:53.280 --> 00:43:57.280 of like missing ingredient, I think, And I think that explains why his 600 00:43:58.039 --> 00:44:01.239 very nice weapons. Folks they trace the change up, they don't really trace 601 00:44:01.320 --> 00:44:06.440 the other pictures. The swinging strike rate's pretty pedestrian. Other than the change 602 00:44:06.519 --> 00:44:09.719 up. His K percentage was nineteen point four. So I don't know what 603 00:44:09.760 --> 00:44:15.400 the Padres are gonna do with him. I don't really view the Padres as 604 00:44:15.480 --> 00:44:20.280 a team that maybe I don't think they have all the same sorts of resources 605 00:44:20.639 --> 00:44:25.079 or pitching philosophies beliefs in some of the quote newer school stuff. I feel 606 00:44:25.119 --> 00:44:28.920 like they kind of just let pictures go and do their thing more so, 607 00:44:29.280 --> 00:44:31.840 but I don't know what do I know? But there's a sixty command guy 608 00:44:31.920 --> 00:44:37.599 here with really good weapons, and you know Matt that that is like that 609 00:44:37.360 --> 00:44:40.679 that's the two things that I don't want to see married. But they're just 610 00:44:40.800 --> 00:44:46.760 not driving together yet in his young career. But Johnny Brito is extremely interesting 611 00:44:46.760 --> 00:44:50.360 to me, and I think there's plenty of stuff here to work with and 612 00:44:50.400 --> 00:44:55.159 be a successful major league pitcher and a successful fantasy pitcher. I like it. 613 00:44:55.239 --> 00:45:00.440 He's a guy I rostered in a thirty teamer I want to say last 614 00:45:00.480 --> 00:45:02.639 year, early last year, he was someone that I liked what he was 615 00:45:02.679 --> 00:45:07.360 showing in terms of inducing ground balls, limiting walks, and thought he had 616 00:45:07.360 --> 00:45:12.079 a chance to be a depth starter. So I think he still is on 617 00:45:12.119 --> 00:45:16.119 that path with the padres and Brito's sinker with that sort of movement, that 618 00:45:16.239 --> 00:45:22.559 sort of teeth twenty eight point six CSW just doesn't really add up the change 619 00:45:22.599 --> 00:45:27.960 up twenty six percent CSW. So Meryl Kelly, I think, is who 620 00:45:28.000 --> 00:45:30.000 I was thinking of off the top of my head. Okay, he's a 621 00:45:30.039 --> 00:45:34.880 sinker change guy and has some success with it. So you know, maybe 622 00:45:34.960 --> 00:45:37.880 if you want to dream on adding another pitch and the command tightening up just 623 00:45:37.920 --> 00:45:42.320 a bit, you could see Brito becoming a version of Meryl Kelly, and 624 00:45:42.360 --> 00:45:45.559 that's a big leaguer for a long time. It's more electricity with Brito, 625 00:45:45.880 --> 00:45:53.000 though, next guy we're going this is more like potential breakout into a top 626 00:45:53.039 --> 00:46:00.320 tier arm. This is a guy who is getting drafted reasonably hot. You 627 00:46:00.360 --> 00:46:05.639 know this is I think his average position in NFBCS is two eighty three, 628 00:46:05.960 --> 00:46:10.000 so, you know, not up there, but pretty significantly better than anybody 629 00:46:10.039 --> 00:46:14.400 that we've talked about up to this point. But it's cutter Crawford. I 630 00:46:14.599 --> 00:46:21.559 generally think in my approach to fantasy baseball is that we individual analysts are dumber 631 00:46:21.599 --> 00:46:25.880 than the projections. Like the projections already know all the information that we know 632 00:46:27.280 --> 00:46:30.360 and contextualize it better than we do, and the numbers that they spit out 633 00:46:30.599 --> 00:46:37.159 I tend to trust, especially in the projections that are an amalgamation of a 634 00:46:37.159 --> 00:46:42.280 bunch of different inputs, and so your ATC's or your fangraphs depth charts, 635 00:46:42.559 --> 00:46:45.920 I think that those remove a lot of risk from the equation, remove a 636 00:46:45.920 --> 00:46:51.519 lot of biases, and help place everything on a single scale that you can 637 00:46:51.800 --> 00:46:55.679 you can use to help overcome your own biases and make better decisions going forward. 638 00:46:55.840 --> 00:47:00.840 But there are always guys, especially younger guys, that I think you 639 00:47:00.880 --> 00:47:08.400 can see glimpses into the kinds of significant leaps in performance that projections really struggle 640 00:47:08.519 --> 00:47:12.639 to deal with. This happens all the time. As we've talked about with 641 00:47:12.719 --> 00:47:17.840 pitchers, but I think it's interesting that the projection systems are so down relatively 642 00:47:17.880 --> 00:47:22.960 speaking. On Cutter Crawford, after having a really good kind of first full 643 00:47:23.039 --> 00:47:28.400 year in the majors, he obviously debuted in twenty twenty two and got you 644 00:47:28.440 --> 00:47:30.400 know, quite a lot of run seventy seven and a third in twenty twenty 645 00:47:30.440 --> 00:47:36.960 two over twelve starts twenty one appearances, just a hair under nine strikeouts per 646 00:47:37.039 --> 00:47:42.440 nine and three point three eight walks per nine. But he had some bad 647 00:47:42.519 --> 00:47:46.639 luck and pitched to the tune of a five four to seven er and lost 648 00:47:46.719 --> 00:47:52.000 his starting job early in the year. In twenty twenty three, ended up 649 00:47:52.000 --> 00:47:55.320 getting it back, obviously, injuries in that rotation and there were lots of 650 00:47:55.360 --> 00:47:59.800 opportunities for Boston in twenty twenty three, so he ended up starting twenty three 651 00:47:59.800 --> 00:48:02.840 games and got another eight out of the pen. Built up one hundred and 652 00:48:02.880 --> 00:48:08.199 twenty nine and a third innings last year and was very good. He had 653 00:48:08.199 --> 00:48:14.280 a three to three expected ERA according to stat Cast, a three eight FIP 654 00:48:14.599 --> 00:48:19.199 very good. That's a plus starter, especially over almost one hundred and thirty 655 00:48:19.199 --> 00:48:25.880 innings, and ran a strong strikeout rate twenty five point six significantly above almost 656 00:48:25.920 --> 00:48:31.679 the standard deviation above average, and only six point eight walks six point eight 657 00:48:31.679 --> 00:48:37.440 per walk percentage good for an eighteen point eight K minus BB very good overall. 658 00:48:37.599 --> 00:48:42.519 He also induced a few more ground balls than he had in his previous 659 00:48:42.599 --> 00:48:46.239 year, limited homers a bit, and got a little bit of babbit luck 660 00:48:46.320 --> 00:48:51.679 and maybe a touch of left on base sort of neutral left on base luck. 661 00:48:51.760 --> 00:48:54.480 So his luck factors were kind of some were positive, some more negative, 662 00:48:54.559 --> 00:48:58.760 somewhere in the middle, and he ran a four to zero four RA 663 00:48:59.239 --> 00:49:02.840 I watched bunch of his starts, though, and I think there's more here. 664 00:49:04.119 --> 00:49:07.039 It might be that I caught some of his better starts. But watching 665 00:49:07.199 --> 00:49:10.880 the pitch mix, it seems to me that he has answers for lefties, 666 00:49:10.920 --> 00:49:15.920 he's got answers for righty's. His command seems good to me, and not 667 00:49:15.119 --> 00:49:21.840 just in the limiting walks kind of way. Using what is a pretty diverse 668 00:49:22.519 --> 00:49:25.320 pitch mix. He's got a four seam fastball that I think gets good spin. 669 00:49:27.039 --> 00:49:29.480 He throws it at the top of his own a decent amount and gets 670 00:49:29.480 --> 00:49:32.719 pop ups and fly balls, gets out that way. I think it has 671 00:49:34.119 --> 00:49:38.440 good ride on it. He has a cutter as you might expect from someone 672 00:49:38.519 --> 00:49:44.000 named cutter Crawford, and that is a good pitch as well. I think 673 00:49:44.000 --> 00:49:49.800 it has more vertical drop and more horizontal drop than you would expect sort of 674 00:49:49.840 --> 00:49:52.559 an average cutter to have. According to statcast, he has a split finger 675 00:49:52.559 --> 00:49:57.000 that he throws a decent amount. I think the command of this one was 676 00:49:57.039 --> 00:50:00.440 the worst. He would throw this one and it would be way out of 677 00:50:00.440 --> 00:50:05.280 the zone some seriously non competitive pitches for his split finger, but it still 678 00:50:05.400 --> 00:50:08.880 had some potential. It showed flashes. And then the pitch that I was 679 00:50:09.039 --> 00:50:15.199 most excited about was his sweeper. He threw didn't throw it very often, 680 00:50:15.239 --> 00:50:20.559 only six point seven percent of the time, but it was his single best 681 00:50:20.559 --> 00:50:25.400 pitch I think significantly. So he has a real feel for spotting this pitch. 682 00:50:25.760 --> 00:50:30.440 Some combination of the way that he threw it and the way he located 683 00:50:30.440 --> 00:50:34.840 it, he got really good results. I want to see him lean into 684 00:50:34.840 --> 00:50:37.679 that a bit more, maybe at the expense of his curveball, which I 685 00:50:37.679 --> 00:50:43.079 think it's hit a bit more. I like the depth of his arsenal. 686 00:50:43.320 --> 00:50:46.679 I like that he has solid command of a lot of it. And I'm 687 00:50:46.920 --> 00:50:53.000 also maybe betting a little bit on the New Boston regime. Craig Breslo is 688 00:50:53.039 --> 00:50:59.559 a really smart pitching guru, and hiring Kyle Body is also usually a good 689 00:50:59.599 --> 00:51:05.159 idea. I think that having all of these different tools in the capable hands 690 00:51:05.440 --> 00:51:13.079 of those kinds of craftsmen, I am just solidly hammering the under on all 691 00:51:13.079 --> 00:51:16.679 of these are projections from the pitch models. So Cutter Crawford, for me, 692 00:51:16.760 --> 00:51:21.440 as someone is like he's debuted, he showed some success, he showed 693 00:51:21.480 --> 00:51:25.719 some wartz. I'm seriously buying what he's selling and think that maybe the price 694 00:51:27.159 --> 00:51:30.960 it's underpriced. I'd say for what I think the potential could be here. 695 00:51:30.199 --> 00:51:35.599 So Cutter Crawford for me is a huge buy. I again, he's going 696 00:51:35.599 --> 00:51:40.679 two eighty three in NFBCS around guys like Michael Waka, Injured, Mac Scherzer, 697 00:51:42.119 --> 00:51:46.599 lance Lynn Mackenzie, Gore, Edward Cabrera, and for my money, 698 00:51:46.920 --> 00:51:51.360 I'm taking him over all of those guys, and then some of the guys 699 00:51:51.440 --> 00:51:54.800 that are going just ahead of him, Seth Lugo, John Means, Rhys 700 00:51:54.960 --> 00:52:00.079 Olsen, todg Bradley, Emmitt Shean. I don't know. I think I'm 701 00:52:00.119 --> 00:52:07.360 taking Cutter over all those guys with the possible exception of rhese Olsen, just 702 00:52:07.400 --> 00:52:08.840 because the park I think is quite a bit better and he has a lot 703 00:52:08.840 --> 00:52:13.159 of similar things to like about him too. All that to say, I 704 00:52:13.239 --> 00:52:17.039 just think that it's worth sometimes betting on a breakout for these guys that are 705 00:52:17.119 --> 00:52:21.960 like two and three years into their career, and for me, Cutter Crawford 706 00:52:22.000 --> 00:52:23.920 is one of those guys that I'm most excited about this year. Man. 707 00:52:23.960 --> 00:52:29.639 I admittedly have not paid much attention to Crawford either coming up or in the 708 00:52:29.679 --> 00:52:32.599 majors. But you are not the only one who likes Cutter Crawford. Mister 709 00:52:32.679 --> 00:52:37.559 Pollock HadAM fifty five on his list. I gotta read that list. It 710 00:52:37.559 --> 00:52:40.079 sounds like he and I agree on a few guys. Yeah, there's a 711 00:52:40.079 --> 00:52:45.239 lot to read. I wanted to bring up Cody Bradford, who is like, 712 00:52:45.440 --> 00:52:52.079 so not my kind of profile in that I don't really love lefties who 713 00:52:52.079 --> 00:52:57.239 can't spin it, and I think that's probably going to be Bradford's maybe biggest 714 00:52:57.320 --> 00:53:00.800 question mark or the inclusion of a third offering. But Cody Bradford, who 715 00:53:00.840 --> 00:53:07.079 had a fantastic, fantastic year last year in Triple A and the PCL which 716 00:53:07.400 --> 00:53:09.239 has nothing to shake a stick at. But last year with the Rangers, 717 00:53:09.239 --> 00:53:14.039 he got in twenty games, eight starts. He's twenty six years old, 718 00:53:14.519 --> 00:53:17.440 he logged fifty six innings last year, and he's rostered in ten percent of 719 00:53:17.480 --> 00:53:22.920 fan tracks leagues Matt. That's less than Freddie Tarnick, Noah Cameron, fellow 720 00:53:23.000 --> 00:53:29.199 Ranger Mitch Bratt seven hundred and forty ADP in NFBC. Yeah, Fangrafts currently 721 00:53:29.280 --> 00:53:31.920 has him labeled as their fifth starter. Probably true with all the injuries that 722 00:53:31.960 --> 00:53:37.400 they've gotten that rotation. So some MLB opportunity I think is in front of 723 00:53:37.400 --> 00:53:39.719 Bradford here. But you know, he's kind of your kind of classic soft 724 00:53:39.760 --> 00:53:45.159 toss and lefty, and that his four seamer average ninety point four miles brower 725 00:53:45.239 --> 00:53:50.480 last year. I don't think the fastball on the stuff plus models gets any 726 00:53:50.480 --> 00:53:53.079 great scores or anything like that. I don't think I've heard on a few 727 00:53:53.079 --> 00:53:59.679 occasions some much smarter pitching folk than I talked about some of its unique attributes. 728 00:54:00.119 --> 00:54:04.360 Sometimes I think extension stuff gets way overblown, but I think he does 729 00:54:04.440 --> 00:54:07.519 have pretty good extensions, so maybe that helps the ninety miles per hour play 730 00:54:07.599 --> 00:54:12.880 up a little bit, but by far his most used pitch used pitch last 731 00:54:12.960 --> 00:54:15.800 year, fifty four and a half percent usage, you know, not too 732 00:54:15.840 --> 00:54:22.440 shabby. A ninety mile per hour fastball getting thirty thirty two percent CSW. 733 00:54:22.639 --> 00:54:25.599 I mean he's got execution on his side. It's probably his biggest weapon. 734 00:54:25.800 --> 00:54:30.119 Throws strikes at a high percentage. You know. It's kind of interesting a 735 00:54:30.199 --> 00:54:36.199 two pitch guy like this without a lot of velocity getting a twenty two percent 736 00:54:36.400 --> 00:54:40.079 k raid in the bigs. You know, his walk percentage is historically low. 737 00:54:40.199 --> 00:54:44.880 He was five percent last year. That's that's the top of the charts. 738 00:54:45.159 --> 00:54:46.960 Granted the fifty six innings. You know, as you might imagine, 739 00:54:46.960 --> 00:54:52.079 there is some hard contact there. Thirty one point two percent hard contact last 740 00:54:52.159 --> 00:54:54.119 year, which is not great, you know, scouting grade wise, this 741 00:54:54.199 --> 00:54:59.039 is like a fifty five fastball low VLO. I mean, we've we've seen 742 00:54:59.280 --> 00:55:01.840 I don't know, maybe Tommy Romero a little bit. I don't think it's 743 00:55:01.880 --> 00:55:05.639 the you know what, he was right handed, right, I mean it's 744 00:55:05.639 --> 00:55:08.440 not the same, but like that, a low v low maybe tough to 745 00:55:08.440 --> 00:55:12.760 square up. Maybe you getting enough whiffs, but I don't know. Kind 746 00:55:12.800 --> 00:55:15.440 of just an interesting guy to me, not really my style. But I 747 00:55:15.440 --> 00:55:20.119 don't think I'm the only one who who thinks Cody Bradford might be kind of 748 00:55:20.159 --> 00:55:24.079 a unique situation maybe somewhat unique success in the bigs. I love this shout 749 00:55:24.199 --> 00:55:29.280 this kind of guy, I think is so fascinating a low velocity. But 750 00:55:29.679 --> 00:55:31.239 I was kind of wondering that. And I'm no expert on this. I'm 751 00:55:31.239 --> 00:55:35.960 no pitch shape a pro changle expert and all that stuff, But I was 752 00:55:36.039 --> 00:55:40.199 kind of wondering if Bradford's fastball was one in which those models just don't really 753 00:55:40.239 --> 00:55:45.400 measure well, Like, are there some characteristics with it that are so different 754 00:55:45.639 --> 00:55:47.719 that it doesn't pick up all that well. I mean, I've heard people 755 00:55:47.760 --> 00:55:52.440 talk about certain pitches like that before. Well, I do think there's something 756 00:55:52.519 --> 00:55:55.840 too. The farther out on the tail you are of the Bell curve, 757 00:55:57.199 --> 00:56:00.760 it's not linear, right, Like, if you're really far out on one 758 00:56:00.920 --> 00:56:05.800 edge, it's not a linear progression that it's that much x percent better. 759 00:56:06.000 --> 00:56:08.360 So I think there's something to that that, like it can look, it 760 00:56:08.400 --> 00:56:15.760 can play up even if if there's something particularly unique about the shape or the 761 00:56:15.800 --> 00:56:21.320 trait, And for Bradford, it's certainly the extension is part of it. 762 00:56:21.559 --> 00:56:25.760 You know, his seven feet seven point three feet extension is in the ninety 763 00:56:25.800 --> 00:56:32.719 eighth percentile according to stat cast, and despite having way below average velocity even 764 00:56:32.880 --> 00:56:37.599 for a lefty, looking at that heat chart on stack cast, like he's 765 00:56:37.679 --> 00:56:40.199 just pumping this thing down the middle. It's not it's not good command, 766 00:56:40.239 --> 00:56:44.320 it's control. It's like I'm throwing it in the middle of the plate and 767 00:56:44.519 --> 00:56:49.920 letting its spin and its extension play up. And so I think I like 768 00:56:50.400 --> 00:56:52.679 watching him last year. I was I thought he was kind of paint in 769 00:56:52.760 --> 00:56:58.880 some I mean maybe, but looking at the chart on stat cast, like 770 00:56:59.079 --> 00:57:01.880 by far, the high percentage is right in the heart, like not even 771 00:57:01.960 --> 00:57:07.480 in the shadows. Maybe it has a slight tilt towards up in the zone 772 00:57:07.599 --> 00:57:09.760 a little bit, like there's some some of the heat markers up in the 773 00:57:09.840 --> 00:57:14.760 zone. But that's a lot of fastballs in the middle of the plate and 774 00:57:14.800 --> 00:57:17.480 he's still got good results on that. And I think that that speaks to 775 00:57:19.039 --> 00:57:23.039 the way his spin plays. I think he's an almost perfect active spin guy. 776 00:57:23.199 --> 00:57:27.280 So all of the spin that he gets on that pitch is imparted in 777 00:57:27.360 --> 00:57:30.960 the magnus force getting that backspin to make it seem like it drops less on 778 00:57:31.000 --> 00:57:35.559 its way to the plate. Plus his extension, I think help it play 779 00:57:35.840 --> 00:57:38.800 up. So his fastballs are getting more pop ups, more fly balls, 780 00:57:38.960 --> 00:57:43.519 more soft contact. I was looking for this before, and it was right 781 00:57:43.519 --> 00:57:45.039 in front of me. But what do you think is strike percentage on the 782 00:57:45.039 --> 00:57:50.440 four seamer was last year? It looked pretty high. Seventy two percent, 783 00:57:51.199 --> 00:57:55.000 seventy five and a half percent. That's that was really hot though, Like, 784 00:57:55.280 --> 00:57:59.360 yes, throwing this thing down the middle, Like I wonder if a 785 00:57:59.480 --> 00:58:04.320 little bit more command of that pitch, like up so that's not quite down 786 00:58:04.360 --> 00:58:07.639 the middle, whether that might just talking about, you know, be a 787 00:58:07.719 --> 00:58:13.679 starter. I do that fastball, that change up combo probably would do quite 788 00:58:13.760 --> 00:58:17.039 well against the righties, but I think I think the lefties he might need 789 00:58:17.119 --> 00:58:21.559 something else throw as a slider. It was fifteen and a half percent of 790 00:58:21.599 --> 00:58:23.679 the time, I mean through twenty one curveballs too. But it doesn't seem 791 00:58:23.719 --> 00:58:28.039 like he likes throwing that pitch either. His curveball. This is actually one 792 00:58:28.079 --> 00:58:32.760 of the worst I've ever seen. His run value per one hundred pitches pretty 793 00:58:32.760 --> 00:58:37.360 good, is positive one, Like if you have one per one hundred, 794 00:58:37.400 --> 00:58:43.880 that's pretty good. His curveball minus twelve point two. So this thing just 795 00:58:43.920 --> 00:58:49.840 got annihilated eight seventy five slug. That is so bad. That's interesting because 796 00:58:49.920 --> 00:58:52.360 I mean, if I'm reading these things right, his curveball got the best 797 00:58:52.480 --> 00:58:58.039 PLV grade out of any of his offerings. But I don't think that's really 798 00:58:58.320 --> 00:59:01.519 dude, what's that It got tattooed? So yeah LV or no. Yeah, 799 00:59:01.760 --> 00:59:05.800 that's a small sample. I mean it was only it was only twenty 800 00:59:05.800 --> 00:59:07.280 one of them on the air. And you're right, he had a really 801 00:59:07.360 --> 00:59:12.920 good year in h A. I do wonder if that's a guy that might 802 00:59:13.000 --> 00:59:17.119 because that's a really really good line in Triple A around Rock. So I 803 00:59:17.159 --> 00:59:22.519 do wonder if he's an additional pitch away from being good. A guy who's 804 00:59:22.559 --> 00:59:28.159 pretty good like that true active spin and a good change up. Though that 805 00:59:28.239 --> 00:59:31.960 means he's like a pronator, right, Like he's better at his wrist pronating 806 00:59:32.039 --> 00:59:36.480 over and so I think the breaking balls can be a little bit tougher to 807 00:59:36.559 --> 00:59:38.760 teach for those guys, you know, like think Bryce Miller or somebody or 808 00:59:38.800 --> 00:59:45.039 even Brian Wlu like those guys with really good pronation, good active spin on 809 00:59:45.119 --> 00:59:49.719 their fastballs. I wonder what pitch might work for him to get him to 810 00:59:50.119 --> 00:59:52.719 have something maybe a little more east west, or a weapon against same handed 811 00:59:52.760 --> 00:59:55.840 batters. Well, when guys can't spin it real, well, what's the 812 00:59:57.039 --> 01:00:00.079 what's the pitch? It's a cutter, right, Yeah, and maybe that 813 01:00:00.480 --> 01:00:02.320 maybe that's the thing for him. I'm fascinated. This is a great shout, 814 01:00:02.519 --> 01:00:06.360 Nate. I'm really interested. I might see if I can get a 815 01:00:06.400 --> 01:00:10.199 share on the cheap. Bradford's super interesting and like, hey, you velocity 816 01:00:10.400 --> 01:00:15.679 purest guys, how come this eighty nine mile per hour fastball right down the 817 01:00:15.719 --> 01:00:20.000 middle? People can't hit it? Yeah? Man, And I'm on that. 818 01:00:20.079 --> 01:00:24.119 I've started working on a study and an article that I'm going to write 819 01:00:24.199 --> 01:00:28.239 up. But we talked a little bit about it, and Bradford might be 820 01:00:28.239 --> 01:00:32.599 a great example to throw in there where I think velocity just gets so overrated 821 01:00:32.760 --> 01:00:37.480 as a measure of is a pitch effective or is a repertoire effective? And 822 01:00:37.960 --> 01:00:42.679 I think we see this in prospect reports all the time. We see this 823 01:00:42.880 --> 01:00:47.480 in talking about big league performance of particular pitches like Hunter Green is so great 824 01:00:47.480 --> 01:00:51.760 because he can throw a fastball over one hundred miles an hour and isn't that 825 01:00:51.840 --> 01:00:54.119 so incredible? I remember I think it was the opening day start he had 826 01:00:54.280 --> 01:00:58.239 had against the Braves two years ago. I think it was it. Maybe 827 01:00:58.280 --> 01:01:00.079 it wasn't open to get It was early in the year Green versus my Braves, 828 01:01:00.119 --> 01:01:05.280 and Green just chopped the Braves. But it was because he threw a 829 01:01:05.320 --> 01:01:08.000 ton of sliders, and his slider is really good. His fastball was still 830 01:01:08.000 --> 01:01:13.719 getting hit and it was outs and foul balls and stuff, but he wasn't 831 01:01:13.760 --> 01:01:17.360 getting whiffs with his fastball, even though it's over one hundred miles an hour, 832 01:01:17.440 --> 01:01:22.079 Like you think, he threw like twenty fastballs over one hundred. And 833 01:01:22.599 --> 01:01:27.079 I felt this as a player too, that there were guys who could throw 834 01:01:27.119 --> 01:01:31.039 it ninety five ninety six that we were salivating over there fastball, like, 835 01:01:31.159 --> 01:01:36.199 yeah, throw that fastball, We're gonna crush it. Remember I can't remember 836 01:01:36.199 --> 01:01:38.639 the guy's name there was. He was the Friday night starter for Arizona State 837 01:01:39.039 --> 01:01:43.119 one of the years that I was there, and we got a great scouting 838 01:01:43.119 --> 01:01:46.360 report on him that he loved to throw his fastball up and in to righties. 839 01:01:46.400 --> 01:01:50.199 He was a righty, and you know, it was like ninety five 840 01:01:50.280 --> 01:01:54.639 ninety six, but the thing was flat like it wasn't to us. It 841 01:01:54.800 --> 01:01:59.719 was not a special pitch. His offspeed pitches were really good and it's come 842 01:01:59.760 --> 01:02:02.599 in with solid But I hit a home run off of him and he because 843 01:02:02.760 --> 01:02:06.320 I knew what pitch he was gonna throw, and when he threw it, 844 01:02:06.320 --> 01:02:10.639 it just looked so fat, like it didn't move in an odd way. 845 01:02:12.000 --> 01:02:17.039 Versus a guy like Preston Gimmet again old shout from the University of Arizona, 846 01:02:17.079 --> 01:02:22.960 who he threw from such a weird arm angle and had such weird spin even 847 01:02:22.960 --> 01:02:25.920 though he was like a ninety to ninety two guy in the fastball, that 848 01:02:25.960 --> 01:02:30.719 pitch was freaking impossible to hit, just the way that it moved. He 849 01:02:30.960 --> 01:02:35.599 had really good backspin and a super weird arm angle that was right over the 850 01:02:35.639 --> 01:02:39.360 top. He had great commands too, but those things were more important than 851 01:02:39.480 --> 01:02:45.000 the six miles an hour in velocity separation between the two guys. And I 852 01:02:45.079 --> 01:02:49.199 think that that's like been sitting in my head for a long time and hearing 853 01:02:49.360 --> 01:02:52.039 guys talk about, like we talked about this a while back with Logan Henderson, 854 01:02:52.119 --> 01:02:55.559 how I'm so excited about the way his fastball plays, even though it 855 01:02:55.599 --> 01:03:00.000 averages ninety two, and we're talking about in the Dynasty that I got Discord, 856 01:03:00.119 --> 01:03:02.440 and somebody is poo pooing Henderson like I'd be way more interested if he 857 01:03:02.519 --> 01:03:06.880 was throwing ninety five, but ninety two, like whatever. And then you 858 01:03:06.920 --> 01:03:10.079 look at a guy like Tristan McKenzie, who also averages about ninety two and 859 01:03:10.199 --> 01:03:15.079 has one of the best fastballs by run value in the major leagues, and 860 01:03:15.159 --> 01:03:20.400 it's like, Okay, we're missing something in this constant reflection or constant return 861 01:03:20.480 --> 01:03:24.760 to just talking about fastball velocity. And I think even Chris Clegg shared a 862 01:03:24.880 --> 01:03:30.280 chart about the expected whobar maybe the results of the whobba against fastballs of a 863 01:03:30.320 --> 01:03:35.880 certain velocity. And it is true that the faster you throw, the lower 864 01:03:36.079 --> 01:03:40.000 weighted on base of the balls in play. However, I think that is 865 01:03:40.400 --> 01:03:45.079 more of a correlation, not a causation thing, because it is also true 866 01:03:45.079 --> 01:03:49.800 that as fastball velocity goes up, so too does induce vertical break and spin. 867 01:03:50.000 --> 01:03:52.079 So the more like the faster you're throwing all of the things equal, 868 01:03:52.239 --> 01:03:57.639 the more spin you're getting on the fastball, so the more it seems to 869 01:03:57.800 --> 01:04:01.360 rise and fight gravity. And I think that that's the thing that's actually important 870 01:04:01.400 --> 01:04:04.840 about it. It's not that the pitch itself is faster, it's that the 871 01:04:05.039 --> 01:04:10.360 induced vertical break that you get is actually the thing that's important over a certain 872 01:04:10.400 --> 01:04:12.880 speed. I mean, I think these things break down both on the high 873 01:04:12.880 --> 01:04:16.000 and the very low ends. And I've been working on a study er aut 874 01:04:16.039 --> 01:04:19.280 this and i think that there's some truth to this, and I'm going to 875 01:04:19.320 --> 01:04:25.960 write it up. But I think guys like Bradford and like Tristan McKenzie and 876 01:04:26.079 --> 01:04:29.159 like Logan Henderson, like some of the other b siders that we've talked about 877 01:04:29.159 --> 01:04:33.199 that maybe aren't velocity kings, their fastballs can still be plus to double plus 878 01:04:33.400 --> 01:04:39.639 and can be like great bets to be successful going forward. So I'm super 879 01:04:39.639 --> 01:04:42.519 interested. This is another one to I'm excited to follow. Like you can 880 01:04:42.559 --> 01:04:46.000 see in some of Bradford's underlying stuff is when you throw ninety, it can 881 01:04:46.039 --> 01:04:48.840 be a good fastball and it can be hard to hit, but when it 882 01:04:48.920 --> 01:04:54.400 is hit, it's kind of hit harder than higher velocity fastballs. And maybe 883 01:04:54.400 --> 01:04:57.840 but maybe that's the location piece of it, right, Like he's thrown a 884 01:04:57.840 --> 01:05:00.199 bunch of fastballs right down the middle, Like if those are better located because 885 01:05:00.239 --> 01:05:03.840 he didn't really have a homer problem in the miners, like double a eleven 886 01:05:03.880 --> 01:05:08.559 point eight percent homer for flyball, that's like a touch above average, and 887 01:05:08.599 --> 01:05:13.559 then in the PCL five point nine percent homer for flyball. So again like 888 01:05:13.599 --> 01:05:16.320 probably some luck there, Like he's probably not a true talent five to nine 889 01:05:16.679 --> 01:05:20.159 homer or flyball ratio guy, especially with the number of fly balls he gets. 890 01:05:20.239 --> 01:05:24.320 It's a noisy stat. And so like, yeah, his basketball did 891 01:05:24.320 --> 01:05:28.760 get hit a bit in the majors, but I don't know it's there's enough 892 01:05:28.840 --> 01:05:34.599 year for it to be pretty interesting. I'd say JP Frantz is another guy 893 01:05:34.639 --> 01:05:40.480 that I had rostered in a super deep league when he was in the upper 894 01:05:40.519 --> 01:05:43.639 miners. I think he was in like Triple A in twenty twenty one for 895 01:05:43.679 --> 01:05:46.559 the Astros, was having a lot of success. Nobody was really talking about 896 01:05:46.639 --> 01:05:50.199 him. He's I don't think it was on any prospect lists of note. 897 01:05:50.320 --> 01:05:55.840 And he had a really great twenty twenty one, striking out a lot of 898 01:05:55.880 --> 01:06:00.880 batters in the miners, limiting the walks decently well and getting ground balls too 899 01:06:01.400 --> 01:06:04.119 at a decent rate. I guess it was kind of up and down he's 900 01:06:04.199 --> 01:06:09.360 more of a flyball pitcher. But France had a pretty great, I mean, 901 01:06:09.440 --> 01:06:13.280 debut year. Got called into action quite a lot for the Astros last 902 01:06:13.360 --> 01:06:16.480 year through one hundred and thirty six and a third innings and ran a three 903 01:06:16.800 --> 01:06:24.719 eight three ERA. It's another guy who writy with a below average velocity fastball 904 01:06:24.880 --> 01:06:29.440 in the ninety three miles an hour range, but and he throws it a 905 01:06:29.480 --> 01:06:31.840 fair amount, like that's his forcing fastball. He throws quite a bit. 906 01:06:31.960 --> 01:06:36.679 But I think he's another guy that has like decent spin on his fastball and 907 01:06:38.239 --> 01:06:43.440 has gotten solid results even given that it doesn't look like a It's certainly not 908 01:06:43.559 --> 01:06:45.719 a fastball that you watch and you're like, oh my god, I gotta 909 01:06:45.760 --> 01:06:48.559 see more of those. But I think he spins it pretty well and commands 910 01:06:48.559 --> 01:06:53.599 it pretty well. He didn't get many strikeouts last year in his first big 911 01:06:53.679 --> 01:06:57.559 league season, excuse me, only seventeen point four percent K's last year, 912 01:06:57.719 --> 01:07:01.360 But I actually think there's more in the tank here, and I think he's 913 01:07:01.400 --> 01:07:06.480 gonna get more strikeouts, both on the back of the high spin fastball that 914 01:07:06.559 --> 01:07:12.280 he has, but he also has a solid five pitch mix, throws cutter, 915 01:07:12.440 --> 01:07:15.039 a change up, a curveball, and a slider. I don't think 916 01:07:15.199 --> 01:07:19.719 any of them are bad, and that's like his curveball might be his worst 917 01:07:19.840 --> 01:07:27.320 pitch, but all the others to me are plus to maybe to average, 918 01:07:27.519 --> 01:07:32.320 And when you've got four average to plus pitches, that to me signals that 919 01:07:32.360 --> 01:07:36.800 there's a lot of upside there and there are gonna be outings and years where 920 01:07:36.800 --> 01:07:41.599 he can put it all together. So I'm not gonna say too much more 921 01:07:41.840 --> 01:07:45.519 than that, just that, Yeah, he didn't earn his three eight three 922 01:07:45.639 --> 01:07:48.760 ERA last year. His FIP was almost a full run higher at four sixty 923 01:07:48.800 --> 01:07:51.880 six. His ex FIP was a full run higher at four eight. But 924 01:07:53.559 --> 01:07:58.880 I like the skills, and I think there's significantly more strikeout upside in here 925 01:07:59.079 --> 01:08:03.639 than most rankers or projection systems are giving him credit for. Given the strikeout 926 01:08:03.719 --> 01:08:08.159 rates that he ran in the miners and the quality of the arsenal, he's 927 01:08:08.199 --> 01:08:12.280 another guy that the arsenal you might look at the velocity readings and look at 928 01:08:12.280 --> 01:08:15.679 the results and say like, eh, I don't know this is a depth 929 01:08:15.760 --> 01:08:18.279 starter, but I think there's a chance for more. This might be a 930 01:08:18.359 --> 01:08:23.439 solid kind of number three. And I used him as a depth piece and 931 01:08:23.479 --> 01:08:26.319 a trade, and I gotta say I kind of regret it. I wish 932 01:08:26.399 --> 01:08:30.840 he was one of the back of the rotation arms in my thirty team or 933 01:08:30.880 --> 01:08:34.520 where I had him. Yeah, four forty six average draft position or average 934 01:08:34.600 --> 01:08:39.960 draft rank, right around Alex Cobb, Wade Miley, and Joe Boyle. 935 01:08:40.439 --> 01:08:45.239 So an interesting group there, and I think JP France to me, has 936 01:08:45.399 --> 01:08:47.439 the maybe the most upside of all of them. Although I guess if Joe 937 01:08:47.479 --> 01:08:51.680 Boyle actually figures out how to not walk fifteen percent of batter, maybe he 938 01:08:51.720 --> 01:08:57.399 has more upside. But JP France is one worth filing away as a late 939 01:08:57.479 --> 01:09:00.920 dart throw. I'm curious. Did you trade for it's away when he was 940 01:09:00.119 --> 01:09:04.119 still a prospect or had he? Yeah, So let me ask you this. 941 01:09:04.399 --> 01:09:13.039 Have you regretted trading away some prospect bats or prospect arms? More bats? 942 01:09:13.640 --> 01:09:18.000 That's I'm opposite. I have I have traded away some arms that I 943 01:09:18.079 --> 01:09:23.880 wish now that I had, not way more so than bats. Yeah, 944 01:09:24.279 --> 01:09:27.800 best one for me here. This might be a little too wild for some 945 01:09:27.880 --> 01:09:30.399 folks. Maybe not though, but I want to talk about Ben Lively. 946 01:09:30.800 --> 01:09:35.800 Oh, I like it nice, So then talk about Journeyman here, right? 947 01:09:35.960 --> 01:09:43.039 I mean pull up his fangraft page and he's thirty one. He's thirty 948 01:09:43.039 --> 01:09:45.800 one. He signed as older. He signed away. Yeah, I know 949 01:09:45.000 --> 01:09:49.039 right. He signed a one year contract with the Guardians for seven hundred and 950 01:09:49.079 --> 01:09:54.720 fifty k after he got in what twelve starts with the Reds last year, 951 01:09:55.159 --> 01:09:59.960 Peer at nineteen games talking an ascension to the bigs and a trip to Korea 952 01:10:00.520 --> 01:10:03.760 coming back. You can look at all there's so many. There's so many, 953 01:10:03.880 --> 01:10:09.680 like just just surface. Yeah, yeah, there's different like sometimes you 954 01:10:09.760 --> 01:10:12.720 walked a lot of guys. Sometimes he did and sometimes he struck. Like 955 01:10:12.800 --> 01:10:15.479 all that stuff. It's all over the place. Right, Let's I just 956 01:10:15.560 --> 01:10:17.920 kind of want to make it simple here. I watched Lively last year for 957 01:10:18.000 --> 01:10:23.119 his His first handful of starts were really really good, and most of his 958 01:10:23.159 --> 01:10:26.159 starts were pretty good. He had a blow up outing where he gave up 959 01:10:26.279 --> 01:10:29.960 thirteen runs they must have just hung him out to dry and then seven runs. 960 01:10:29.960 --> 01:10:31.680 But other than that, every other outing, I mean it was very 961 01:10:31.680 --> 01:10:38.520 competitive. Did not put Zero's up put decent on the scoreboard. Fastball slider. 962 01:10:38.880 --> 01:10:42.680 The slider is his best pitch. I think he up the usage of 963 01:10:42.720 --> 01:10:46.039 it as the season progressed. He used it twenty three and a half percent 964 01:10:46.079 --> 01:10:49.439 of the time. His four seamer he used thirty two percent of the time. 965 01:10:49.600 --> 01:10:54.680 There was a sinker as well, so those were his three main offerings. 966 01:10:54.680 --> 01:10:57.159 He used the sinker twenty two percent of the time, change up, 967 01:10:57.199 --> 01:11:00.800 curveball, cutter thrown in, but whatever sliderduced well for seamer did not. 968 01:11:01.119 --> 01:11:04.920 But what drew me to him, Matt was I just happened to throw on 969 01:11:04.920 --> 01:11:08.840 my case. I think his first start last year, maybe he was the 970 01:11:08.880 --> 01:11:13.119 second one, but my man was just painting the edges. Just everything was 971 01:11:13.159 --> 01:11:15.800 on the edge. Man. He left nothing over the middle of the plate. 972 01:11:15.000 --> 01:11:18.159 So that got me really interested. I was desperate in that league that 973 01:11:18.199 --> 01:11:23.039 I had mentioned, and I'm way overpaid for what I should pay for lively 974 01:11:23.079 --> 01:11:26.079 to help me out at the time. But I find it also interesting. 975 01:11:26.159 --> 01:11:30.479 At least the plvs pictureless stuff plus stuff like his fastball got a pretty high 976 01:11:30.520 --> 01:11:36.000 mark. So take that fo Yeah, even though don't think Nick cares for 977 01:11:36.039 --> 01:11:40.760 it very much at all, but my interest here. He's currently listed as 978 01:11:40.800 --> 01:11:45.359 a swingman for Cleveland. He's rostered in four percent of leagues. You know, 979 01:11:45.439 --> 01:11:47.399 that's less than some of our b sides. He's not getting drafted. 980 01:11:47.800 --> 01:11:51.039 I'm one of those leagues. I'm a proud Ben Lively owner. I mean 981 01:11:51.079 --> 01:11:55.760 those thirty teen leagues where you just need to get some arms. Yeah, 982 01:11:55.840 --> 01:12:00.399 but we have seen Cleveland take guys with less than out more fastballs or you 983 01:12:00.479 --> 01:12:03.840 might think are less than optimal, and help them. So I'm curious what 984 01:12:04.159 --> 01:12:10.079 will happen with Cleveland here? And is this a good fastball that isn't that 985 01:12:10.199 --> 01:12:13.840 hard? He throws it like ninety one, But is this a good shape? 986 01:12:14.000 --> 01:12:16.399 Is this a good fastball? And Cleveland's going to help him a little 987 01:12:16.399 --> 01:12:19.880 bit? I don't know, but with the command that I saw on stretches, 988 01:12:19.920 --> 01:12:25.000 and I think maybe that might be just Lively's things. He can be 989 01:12:25.039 --> 01:12:28.039 really good for a little while and then he just kind of loses it. 990 01:12:28.039 --> 01:12:30.279 But the execution that I saw for him in that little stretch, I thought 991 01:12:30.359 --> 01:12:34.600 was could definitely play, and he had some good major league success. Nobody 992 01:12:34.640 --> 01:12:38.680 wants him just kind of to keep an eye. Just kind of an interesting 993 01:12:38.720 --> 01:12:43.239 guy in my opinion. Yeah, interesting. I was drawn in by the 994 01:12:43.319 --> 01:12:48.079 strikeout and walk ratios like that. He'd been fairly successful at getting whiffs and 995 01:12:48.199 --> 01:12:53.199 limiting walks, but just was giving up all the home runs. I'd run 996 01:12:53.239 --> 01:12:56.520 a study on this a while back that generally speaking, you still want to 997 01:12:56.560 --> 01:13:00.319 trust the strikeout and walk ratios rather than the home run rates, because he 998 01:13:00.439 --> 01:13:05.239 ran a two point h three homer per nine rate last year, and like 999 01:13:05.359 --> 01:13:10.720 basically nobody ever has had success with that kind of home run rate. But 1000 01:13:10.760 --> 01:13:14.960 it's also not very sticky, like it's not he wasn't He was in small 1001 01:13:15.000 --> 01:13:17.279 park and had a fastball that I think was getting lit up. So, 1002 01:13:17.640 --> 01:13:20.760 like I said, maybe some improvements with the fastball. We got a bit 1003 01:13:20.760 --> 01:13:25.479 of a different Ben Lively this year. I'm excited to see it. Nate, 1004 01:13:25.680 --> 01:13:28.760 great, great picks. There are some fun ones in there. Yeah 1005 01:13:28.840 --> 01:13:32.199 you too, Man. I love that you brought up Miley so R MLB 1006 01:13:32.920 --> 01:13:38.880 B side arms, Steven Matt Zach Thompson, JT. Brubaker, Ryan Feltner, 1007 01:13:38.920 --> 01:13:43.560 Wade Miley, Johnny Brito cutter Croft for Cody Bradford, JP Franz, 1008 01:13:44.000 --> 01:13:46.319 Ben Lively right on, Matt. Some winners in there. Now, Matt, 1009 01:13:46.439 --> 01:13:51.319 let's talk about Reevon Scooter. You want to talk about can we can? 1010 01:13:51.399 --> 01:13:56.399 We? Yes? Oh my god, I love him. So let 1011 01:13:56.399 --> 01:13:59.880 me set this up a little bit here. So my guy Justin, who 1012 01:14:00.079 --> 01:14:03.479 hooks me up with some fantastic tools to help me watch baseball through the season, 1013 01:14:03.800 --> 01:14:08.079 made us something that I love. On fangrafts, you can't look at 1014 01:14:08.119 --> 01:14:12.960 a prospect pitcher right and get stuff broken down like first time through the order, 1015 01:14:13.039 --> 01:14:15.000 second time through the order, et cetera. Right, So what Justin 1016 01:14:15.039 --> 01:14:19.319 did is he pulled from MiLB dot com. You can go to splits and 1017 01:14:19.359 --> 01:14:25.479 it will it will break down prospect stats by inning right, first literal inning 1018 01:14:25.520 --> 01:14:28.079 of the game, first inning, second inning, third inning, et cetera. 1019 01:14:28.279 --> 01:14:30.560 But the problem is part of the problem is they don't update that. 1020 01:14:30.680 --> 01:14:33.159 You can look at a guy who threw one hundred innings and they'll have like, 1021 01:14:33.199 --> 01:14:35.560 oh, he pitched four innings in the second inning, Like, no, 1022 01:14:35.720 --> 01:14:41.159 that's not correct. But Justin's wizard and they have all that stats behind 1023 01:14:41.199 --> 01:14:44.279 the scenes. So he pulled all that for me. So just in a 1024 01:14:44.399 --> 01:14:47.159 literal sense, well, were all of the minor league picture stats in the 1025 01:14:47.159 --> 01:14:50.439 first inn in the second inning, third inning, et cetera. Right, 1026 01:14:50.720 --> 01:14:54.359 So then I got to playing with that, and what I did is I 1027 01:14:54.479 --> 01:14:57.600 just split it first, second, third inning, fourth, fifth, sixth 1028 01:14:57.600 --> 01:15:00.479 inning. What were all of the pitcher's stats and those two groups, and 1029 01:15:00.520 --> 01:15:03.239 then I had to, like, I really spent a lot of time just 1030 01:15:03.319 --> 01:15:06.319 kind of like weeding up guys. Right, you've got piggybackers. You've got 1031 01:15:06.319 --> 01:15:10.600 guys who don't come in until the fourth inning, so that's not going to 1032 01:15:10.680 --> 01:15:15.840 be a great representation of their stats the first or second, third time through 1033 01:15:15.880 --> 01:15:18.560 the order. There were guys that didn't go deep enough to really make any 1034 01:15:18.640 --> 01:15:24.159 sort of difference to So after weeding all those guys out, I got my 1035 01:15:24.239 --> 01:15:29.760 spreadsheet. Here there were roughly three hundred guys. I thought we could maybe 1036 01:15:30.159 --> 01:15:33.359 glean a little idea, a little look at how their their stats may may 1037 01:15:33.359 --> 01:15:38.199 have gone as they got deeper into the games. Right, looked at nothing 1038 01:15:38.319 --> 01:15:43.079 super fancy. Here, looked at er whip, strike percentage, wall percentage, 1039 01:15:43.159 --> 01:15:46.359 K percentage, home run percentage, batting average against, ops against. 1040 01:15:46.479 --> 01:15:49.039 Right, just stuff like that. So what is that? That's one, 1041 01:15:49.079 --> 01:15:53.399 two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight categories? 1042 01:15:53.479 --> 01:15:59.680 Right, eight different stats, And Matt, your man Reedvon Scooter was far 1043 01:15:59.800 --> 01:16:03.279 and way the best looking dude here, Like, i' man, this is 1044 01:16:03.439 --> 01:16:09.279 this is insane to me. Okay, So those like eight categories or whatever, 1045 01:16:09.760 --> 01:16:16.119 there were fourteen pitchers who improved in all eight of those in the third, 1046 01:16:16.159 --> 01:16:20.239 fourth, and sixth innings of their starts, right, Reedvon Scooter Jackson, 1047 01:16:20.279 --> 01:16:26.159 Wolf, Trent Baker, Dustin Say Signs, Jacob Miller, your Man, 1048 01:16:26.439 --> 01:16:30.520 Kaiwa Tang, Josh Stephen, Tyson, Guerrero, Cooper Jerpe. But 1049 01:16:30.600 --> 01:16:34.880 mind you, there's a pretty small sample size there. Surprisingly to me, 1050 01:16:35.439 --> 01:16:43.039 rouber sealinis my B side. Also surprising to me, my Blue Jays B 1051 01:16:43.199 --> 01:16:47.680 side, Ryan Jennings, Luis Devers, John Klein, and another B side 1052 01:16:47.720 --> 01:16:55.319 Matt Gilbert Diez RVs. Was bar and way the most improved statistically, like 1053 01:16:55.399 --> 01:17:00.359 this guy in the fourth, fifth, and sixth innings, which he went 1054 01:17:00.960 --> 01:17:03.000 that deep in a lot of his games, right, Yeah, he was 1055 01:17:03.039 --> 01:17:06.279 one of the top innings pitch this year, one hundred and ft three, 1056 01:17:08.119 --> 01:17:11.600 right exactly. And so I broke it down like this too. So in 1057 01:17:11.880 --> 01:17:16.159 innings one through six, like forty five point three percent of his innings were 1058 01:17:16.359 --> 01:17:19.640 the third, fourth or sixth inning. That's a very high percent, way 1059 01:17:19.720 --> 01:17:23.880 higher than a lot of a lot of dudes here, right, His era 1060 01:17:24.399 --> 01:17:29.399 from the front half to the back half three point six zero to two point 1061 01:17:29.439 --> 01:17:32.279 three four. His whip went from one four to eight to point nine. 1062 01:17:32.479 --> 01:17:38.560 His strike percentage increased from sixty four point nine percent to sixty six point seven 1063 01:17:38.560 --> 01:17:42.640 percent. His walk rate went from seven percent to five percent. His k 1064 01:17:42.760 --> 01:17:46.720 rate went from twenty five percent to twenty seven percent. The home run percentage, 1065 01:17:46.960 --> 01:17:51.399 I guess stayed the same. It went up by very marginal, marginal 1066 01:17:51.439 --> 01:17:56.680 amount. I just rounded it to whole percentage points. And then his batting 1067 01:17:56.760 --> 01:18:01.000 average against dropped almost one hundred points from two nine one ninety seven. That 1068 01:18:01.479 --> 01:18:08.199 was the most substantial difference out of any picture across the board that we looked 1069 01:18:08.239 --> 01:18:12.760 at, And I found that kind of fascinating that from your looks of our 1070 01:18:12.880 --> 01:18:15.880 vs. Why do you think he was able to do that? I think 1071 01:18:15.920 --> 01:18:19.720 it gets to the depth and quality of the repertoire. You know some of 1072 01:18:19.760 --> 01:18:23.159 this when we were talking about this, as we were diving into some of 1073 01:18:23.159 --> 01:18:27.079 these results over the past couple of weeks. I hypothesize that some of this 1074 01:18:27.239 --> 01:18:30.840 is noise. Like some of these guys, it's going to be it's it's 1075 01:18:30.960 --> 01:18:36.760 luck in some capacity. But I also think one of the commonalities of some 1076 01:18:36.840 --> 01:18:42.920 of the guys that were listed was that they do have deeper repertoires that they 1077 01:18:42.960 --> 01:18:48.840 can make it more times through the order and still surprise batters consistently. And 1078 01:18:49.159 --> 01:18:54.279 I feel that that's the way that Van Scooter approaches a lineup, like he 1079 01:18:54.720 --> 01:18:59.560 has stuff that I think plays really well, irrespective of the hate that it's 1080 01:18:59.600 --> 01:19:04.159 gotten from some quarters on the evaluation of the particulars of his pitch mix. 1081 01:19:04.479 --> 01:19:09.359 But I think that the combination of the way he locates it, and that 1082 01:19:09.640 --> 01:19:15.079 the release points, the shapes, and the way that he locates all of 1083 01:19:15.439 --> 01:19:20.319 his pitches play together to make each app bad against him look pretty different even 1084 01:19:20.359 --> 01:19:25.199 if it's your third or fourth time seeing him. So this is one of 1085 01:19:25.199 --> 01:19:30.159 the reasons why he was so exciting to me as I was watching him and 1086 01:19:30.600 --> 01:19:35.199 watching him this past year and evaluating his tools and tang. It's interesting that 1087 01:19:35.239 --> 01:19:39.239 he's another one that popped on this list because he's another one that I was 1088 01:19:39.319 --> 01:19:44.359 like, this arsenal has depth, it has quality, and it just seems 1089 01:19:44.399 --> 01:19:47.279 really difficult to hit against him, doesn't matter if you've seen him a bunch 1090 01:19:47.279 --> 01:19:51.239 of times. And I like that and the fact that both of them pitch 1091 01:19:51.319 --> 01:19:56.000 deep into games and have the innings built up. I think they're both really 1092 01:19:56.399 --> 01:20:00.239 exciting pitchers. You know, like you said, a lot of this this 1093 01:20:00.319 --> 01:20:03.239 is harry and noisy. I don't know what you want to take away from 1094 01:20:03.239 --> 01:20:06.079 it, right, but you know we talk about and we like guys who 1095 01:20:06.119 --> 01:20:11.319 can actually go deep into games, right, be a starter. So maybe 1096 01:20:11.319 --> 01:20:15.479 this gives us some insight into into that with some of these arms like Tang 1097 01:20:15.600 --> 01:20:18.520 right, only thirty three percent of his innings we're in the fourth, fifth 1098 01:20:18.520 --> 01:20:23.079 and six, right, Yeah, because he has lots of challenge getting that 1099 01:20:23.119 --> 01:20:26.720 deep in games because of his walk issues. Right, and you talk about 1100 01:20:26.800 --> 01:20:29.840 how there's attacks when you get deeper in his games, Right, you should 1101 01:20:29.840 --> 01:20:32.399 be easier to hit as pitchers see you more often, right, But also 1102 01:20:32.520 --> 01:20:36.520 too, like you have to account for there are games where you don't get 1103 01:20:36.640 --> 01:20:43.119 to the fourth, fifth and six innings because you got blue up early. 1104 01:20:43.279 --> 01:20:46.680 Right, So that's going to affect things like your era and whip and whatever. 1105 01:20:46.840 --> 01:20:53.159 Maybe the most interesting thing on all of this was whose percentage of innings 1106 01:20:53.319 --> 01:20:56.399 was we're in the fourth, fifth and six. That might be just the 1107 01:20:56.399 --> 01:20:59.439 most interesting part of it. I don't know. I do want to highlight 1108 01:20:59.800 --> 01:21:02.640 a few guys here and a few things that they did. Wilmer Flores is 1109 01:21:02.680 --> 01:21:08.640 a guy who I found really interesting. I know he didn't have a really 1110 01:21:08.640 --> 01:21:13.760 great year, but I thought a combination of stuff and execution in twenty twenty 1111 01:21:13.760 --> 01:21:15.880 two was really good. He kind of fell off a little bit, but 1112 01:21:16.439 --> 01:21:20.840 there were some nice signs here, and I think he had some outings where 1113 01:21:20.880 --> 01:21:25.319 he just got gave up a lot of runs early. But he was a 1114 01:21:25.359 --> 01:21:29.319 guy that when he did go deeper into the games was was pretty good and 1115 01:21:29.640 --> 01:21:34.000 arguably better my guy CJ. Culpepper nat thirty six percent of his innings were 1116 01:21:34.039 --> 01:21:38.239 in the fourth, fifth, and six. It accounted for thirty and two 1117 01:21:38.239 --> 01:21:41.760 thirds innings on the season. Guess howbody earned runs he gave up then? 1118 01:21:42.159 --> 01:21:45.680 Zero? Nada. I know you shared this with me already, and that's 1119 01:21:45.720 --> 01:21:48.319 impressive. Nada. I mean, that might just be a good stretcher or 1120 01:21:48.359 --> 01:21:54.880 whatever, but nobody does that. Nobody did that. Some pictures who seemed 1121 01:21:54.920 --> 01:21:59.960 to lose some substantial cagews deeper into starts, like my guy Dylan Ray dropped 1122 01:22:00.079 --> 01:22:04.880 ten percent over a pretty decent sample size. Your guy Isaac Coffee dropped ten 1123 01:22:04.920 --> 01:22:11.560 percent, Jack Lighter dropped nine percent, Juan Corilla dropped nine percent. Yarro 1124 01:22:11.800 --> 01:22:16.159 Eriarte dropped nine percent. But like interesting, yeah, only I mean only 1125 01:22:16.239 --> 01:22:21.279 thirty two percent of his innings were were there. But Trace McDermott dropped seven 1126 01:22:21.319 --> 01:22:28.079 percent, Frank Mazokato dropped seven percent, Kyder Montero dropped six percent, Luis 1127 01:22:28.119 --> 01:22:31.920 Perrellis dropped six percent. To Ko Roby dropped six percent, Jordan Wick dropped 1128 01:22:31.960 --> 01:22:36.039 six percent. Zebie Matthews dropped six percent. That was a little interesting. 1129 01:22:36.319 --> 01:22:42.880 That is interesting. Cole Wilcox walk percentage dumped quite a bit eight percent. 1130 01:22:43.119 --> 01:22:48.720 Ike Buxton walk percentage went up six percent later and starts tink Hence walk percentage 1131 01:22:48.720 --> 01:22:54.720 went up four percent. Well were his strikeout rates down four percent already? 1132 01:22:54.760 --> 01:22:59.199 Not high rate? Right? Yeah, that was kind of interesting. Higher 1133 01:22:59.199 --> 01:23:04.039 ops allowed to Mitch Bratt's batting average guns swim up over what one hundred and 1134 01:23:04.079 --> 01:23:09.520 seventeen points. Joe Rock gave up a lot more hits Dylan Rey as well, 1135 01:23:09.720 --> 01:23:13.119 which makes a lot of sense to me. Can Dana, So I 1136 01:23:13.159 --> 01:23:15.680 don't know, kind of some fun. So can your boy get us these 1137 01:23:15.760 --> 01:23:20.439 data for previous years, because I think we could have some fun using ubility 1138 01:23:20.520 --> 01:23:27.159 if it is directionally projection affected, you know, probably because my proxy for 1139 01:23:27.239 --> 01:23:31.920 This is just like do they throw innings. If you're throwing innings, you're 1140 01:23:32.039 --> 01:23:36.439 having some success. This is interesting although they are small samples, but I 1141 01:23:36.439 --> 01:23:41.439 think the things that you're calling out mat in are their case going up or 1142 01:23:41.479 --> 01:23:43.840 down? Are their walks going up er down? Like? Those are the 1143 01:23:43.840 --> 01:23:48.720 things that are stickiest in smaller samples and are also more predictive of just overall 1144 01:23:48.760 --> 01:23:54.000 skill. So I wonder if we can break this out a little bit more 1145 01:23:54.039 --> 01:23:57.840 granularly for some of the guys over the past, like say three or four 1146 01:23:57.920 --> 01:24:01.640 years before, and see where they land in the major leagues if it helps 1147 01:24:01.720 --> 01:24:05.239 us with breakouts. Like you know, a guy that I'm curious about is 1148 01:24:05.439 --> 01:24:12.479 someone like Reed debt Meers, who really ran some pristine lines in the minors, 1149 01:24:12.920 --> 01:24:15.680 and it's taken his lumps a bit in pro ball up to this point. 1150 01:24:15.720 --> 01:24:19.359 He's had some success, but also had some growing pains too, And 1151 01:24:19.399 --> 01:24:27.000 I wonder whether it's it tells us anything more about his like underlying depth of 1152 01:24:27.039 --> 01:24:32.119 repertoire. This is a log of the history of twenty twenty three minor leagues. 1153 01:24:32.399 --> 01:24:34.720 I'm not going to take it as too much more than that, but 1154 01:24:34.800 --> 01:24:40.319 you know, maybe maybe there's some signs here. Maybe there's some breadcrumbs of 1155 01:24:40.399 --> 01:24:42.920 some things we might want to pay more attention to. I don't know, 1156 01:24:43.159 --> 01:24:46.079 Hey, and anything that confirms my bias that tin kNs is actually stink. 1157 01:24:46.119 --> 01:24:51.840 Hence, I think good Leod Matt Jackson job first, second, and third 1158 01:24:51.880 --> 01:24:58.159 innings forty three in a third innings total there he walked three percent of batters, 1159 01:24:58.239 --> 01:25:01.359 right, and then four when he went four or five six, which 1160 01:25:01.520 --> 01:25:06.039 was twenty and two thirds, his walk percentage was zero. Yeah, he's 1161 01:25:06.079 --> 01:25:11.000 fun. That's pretty good. That's pretty good. Strike guys out and don't 1162 01:25:11.039 --> 01:25:15.159 walk them. Yeah, good starting point. Strike them out at like thirty 1163 01:25:15.159 --> 01:25:18.920 three percent or whatever it was and walk them at like two and a half 1164 01:25:18.960 --> 01:25:23.880 percent. That'll probably play. Yeah, I think I think it should. 1165 01:25:24.119 --> 01:25:27.640 I hope he stays healthy. I hope that back thing isn't isn't a concern, 1166 01:25:27.720 --> 01:25:30.239 because I'm quite excited about watching him and the bigs. So, I 1167 01:25:30.239 --> 01:25:33.479 don't know, Matt, you got anything else he wanted to talk about or 1168 01:25:33.600 --> 01:25:36.000 should we rather? I don't think so. I mean, that was quite 1169 01:25:36.039 --> 01:25:41.920 the wide ranging conversation. You know. We talked about minor leaguers, fringe 1170 01:25:42.000 --> 01:25:45.479 major leaguers, some potential stars. I mean, we were all over the 1171 01:25:45.520 --> 01:25:47.680 place today right out. Well, there's some muddy arm stuff. I think 1172 01:25:47.720 --> 01:25:53.520 we're well, we got sent back down to the minors. That so shure. 1173 01:25:54.239 --> 01:25:56.800 We'll have to work along anyway, Nate, we'll have to work on 1174 01:25:56.840 --> 01:25:59.680 some things. Maybe we can get back up to the biggs later. But 1175 01:25:59.800 --> 01:26:00.800 yeah, I don't know. I don't know what we're gonna talk about next 1176 01:26:00.800 --> 01:26:03.960 week. We'll figure it out. But hopefully there's there's some deep arms that 1177 01:26:04.079 --> 01:26:08.960 might help you in some leagues at least short term or what have you. 1178 01:26:09.239 --> 01:26:13.119 Spot start stream. I don't know, but I think we'll let Chicago Farmer 1179 01:26:13.199 --> 01:26:16.039 take us out. Matt be well, talk to you next time. See 1180 01:26:16.079 --> 01:26:23.960 Yu ritten to his head. He hop him down the first with the lump 1181 01:26:24.039 --> 01:26:29.159 bone in his face, and on the very next pitch he up in stove 1182 01:26:29.560 --> 01:26:40.880 second face with greatest speed. He wasn't born. He had the dirdy. 1183 01:26:40.960 --> 01:26:43.079 Yes, Ni Borne