Basically back in here in January of twenty twenty two, we've broken below this
bullish trend here, not the entire bullish tread, just this upper leg of
it. We entered into this full bear structure here, and then we have
been in a new bullish structure since then. I think this has one more
leg to go to take out these highs up here at forty six, thirty
three fifty and then we all have to look at different exhaustion levels up above.
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And welcome you are listening to and watching the Financial Survival Network. I'm
here hoes Carrie Lotz since the last day of November. Figured we touch with
Michael Moore More Analytics. You find them at moreo R Analytics dot com.
Questions, comments, whatever, send me an email kl at carrielots dot com
and Mike, it's great to have you back. On the show, so
we've had quite a run up in the S and P and in the indexes.
Avan. Wait, yes, thank you very much for having me on
Kerry. I appreciate so. Sure, So what's doing in the market here?
We got some charts to look at, a sure, So I'm a
technical analyst, so my analysis of the markets is strictly from price action or
any of your followers that normally look at fundamentals. So my charts may look
like hieroglyphics with all of these lines all over them, but these charts are
not really designed for presentations to audiences. There really my charts that I use
for determining price movement. But right here in the SP's this this insert right
here. This is the the SMP analysis that I send to my clients every
morning. So I send this out in the mornings, and then in the
afternoons I send a video podcast everybody. So we'll just take into what I
actually sent to traders this morning. This seems like a lot of writing,
but most of the upside is on hold because these are higher time frame calls.
I warn't holding possible macro exhaustion at thirty five thirty one, which we
had the potential to trigger at bullish correction to training with the minimum target of
thirty seven ninety three and a higher time frame target of forty one ninety We
held that with thirty five h two though, and bounced eleven thirty two,
taking out both targets. So this says a bunch of other the higher timeframe
calls in here. Then we had a lower time frame call. We held
exhaustion above at forty six eighteen fifty, but the forty six thirty five I
rolled over five hundred and twelve point twenty five. Now that's I hold now
on a lower time frame. This is the This is the part of the
paragraph that traders would look at in the morning, and so each of these
sentences has been updated every day since they've been written. The first one being
that we held exhaustion below at forty one fifteen with the forty one twenty two
and a quarter low at abouts four hundred and seventy four point seventy five.
That was holding this exhaustion level right here with this red rectangle, So we'd
bounced. Then the next fullish call was the break above this formation right in
here. Actually, no, that was left. The next call the next
call was we left this. This is a daily chart. We left the
bullsh reversal right here. That was on eleven one, and we rallied three
seventy five from that forty two to twenty one fifty over. Then we traded
above the forty two seventy seven seventy five line that's brought in three hundred and
nineteen point five. That was the break above this line. I'm not going
to go through all of them, but a more significant one here. As
I said, solid penetration above forty three sixteen ninety three to twenty eight seventy
four put this back above a substantial formation that warned of higher trade for days
slash weeks. We've seen two hundred and sixty eight point twenty five of that
so far. That was the break above these two lines right here, and
you can see we've broke above those are on November three, so we've been
up above there almost a month fulfilling what we said here about weeks, and
then we broke above another significant formation at forty four seventeen fifty that projects us
upward two hundred and ninety five points. We've only seen one hundred and seventy
nine point five of that so far, so that still has more to go.
And then on a very short term, we broke above a minor formation
to forty five sixty three seventy five, which brought in thirty three point twenty
five of strength. And I'll show you that right here. That is this
little little formation right here. We broke above. It came all the way
down here within point twenty five seventy five of the stop, and then rallied
up to here. If we break below here decently, that's going to warn
a renewed pressure down line's going to command that at forty five fifty four seventy
one minus light team per hour starting at two o'clock PM. Let me just
talk about a little bit of a higher time frame outlook, because we haven't
been on for a little while. But this is a daily chart again,
forgive all the hieroglyphics on here, but not a problem basically back in here.
In January of twenty twenty two, we've broken below this bullish trend here,
not the entire bullish trend, just this upper leg of it. We
entered into this full barrow structure here, and then we have been in a
new bullish structure since then I think this has one more leg to go to
take out these highs up here at forty six thirty three fifty, and then
we all have to look at different exhaustion levels up above. We hold one
of those exhaustional levels, we could see a bear's correction larger than one of
these correctionals. But currently right now, we're still bullish in general to the
upside. Okay, they're still bullets to the upsides. And how much further
can it go? Well, I think we'll probably take out forty six thirty
three fifty give me a second here, and then, well, I said
that that what projection right here, right, this is the trade above forty
four to seventeen to fifty project you upward two hundred and ninety five plus.
You've only seen one hundred and seventy nine of that so far, so we
could see another one hundred and fifteen above that. You know. Short term
we can still see you know, we can see some consolidative pullbacks in here
or whatever, but in general, it's just we're still above those lines.
This is still projected higher. Okay, all right, So higher we go,
We've got to see a crash once it hits its peak. What's you're
feeling, I do. I think we're going to We're going to see a
correction from up there. I wouldn't say a full crash necessarily, but we
have exhaustion levels up above to be aware of, at forty seven to seventy
one and a half to forty eight twenty one and a half, and then
higher levels above that. Also, if we were to break above forty six
thirty three point fifty and then settle below it for a couple of days,
that could also trigger in early termination of that move up and roll over.
And you can see yes year on the charts of ser these are pretty major
areas right here. Forty six thirty one the forty six thirty three p.
Fifty is a major area. So if we broke above that and really settled
below it, then this thing can really start to come off, all right.
So I realized, you're a technical guy. You don't really go into
the fundamentals, But do you have any explanations or theories about the market's behavior,
why it's gone up, why it's climbed on a wall over worry?
What a great question for a technician. So this is really more of an
answer on a technical level. The straight answer to that is no, because
I don't really look into the fundamentals that much. The reason why I look
at things from a price actual perspective is the theory behind technical analysis and looking
at those prices is the current market pricing is a reflection of the sum total
of all the people treating that market at that time. And what I have
found over the years is that a technical analysis will get you into rooms earlier
than the fundamental picture paints that picture eighty five to nine, eighty five to
ninety percent of the time, and we'll get you out of at eighty five
to ninety five percent of the time earlier than the fundamentals will show you when
you get out of it. So the fundamentals are what drives the market.
Okay, that's the underpinning of the market, but the technicals reveal which way
that those are going to turn much earlier than to fundamentals present themselves like that,
If that makes any sense, Okay, I don't know if that was
very clear of an answer. If that was clear, it clear as we're
going to get and we're grateful for it. Really well, I'll give you
a quick example in the in the crude oil. You know, I was
getting barrassed at different exhaustion levels up above here. Then we broke above a
major top and patter right here on the sixth and no ever, you know,
who would call who would call that? Who would call the crude oil
to be bearish when there's a war break, when there's a war going on
in Israel? And right? Counterintuitive for certain right right exactly? So?
Uh. And the other thing is is I started this analysis at the request
of a natural gas futures trader on the floor of the New York Mercantile Exchange,
and a natural gas and crude oil options trigger and the options pit down
there into this analysis. You know, traders and the pits on the trading
floors are looking for something that's immediate and very tangible and ciffik. And that's
what the technicals provide. Right, Okay, I like it. I like
it onto other markets. Why don't we first look at what Let's look at
energy crude oil and get it as long as you've as long as you're the
one who raised it after all. Right, all right, okay, let's
see what we got there. Well, we can look at crude oil.
Crude oil is a sale right here. As a matter of fact, we
had just broken above. Let me pull this over here, crude all down
below. We had held exhaustion down below at seventy two even with the seventy
two to thirty seven low, and bounced up to seventy eight twenty six or
seventy nine to sixty. And we had broken above two different bullish formations.
One right here we saw a nice run up from. Another one right here
we saw a run up from. But then we held exhaustion right up here
at seventy seventy nine seventy two with the seven nine sixty high, and we
rolled over and we failed below this formation right here. And that's really key
because now that projects us lower and another three dollars and fifty cents to the
downside. That line right now comes in at seventy six seventeen and increases one
point seven ticks per hour. To those of you that don't know that ticks
nomenclature, a tick is an exchange term for the lowest increment that a commodity
moves or trades it. So for crude oil, a tick would be a
cent on a on a barrow, and your stock would currently be one hundred
and one ticks or a dollar one above seventy six seventeen. We still do
the tren in the tron too, or is that like totally antiquated? The
trend in the tron. The trend in the tron, right, the trend
I mean we used to term trend analogy tren, t R I n trin.
No, And I don't really used that. Did they use that on
the in the you know, I'm old. There used to be the trin
right, and there used to be the tron right. Oh, I haven't
heard that. I've always been down on commodities excuse that may have been more
of a stocked Is that more of a stock exchance? Then? Yeah?
Uh, you know it's a they were like measurements and directions of the heading.
Trin is a short term treating tool that measures volatility in the stock market.
Trend represents the relationship between advancing and declining issues by measuring their volume flow.
Right, really interesting pron you know, nobody uses it anymore. I
think the computers figure all that stuff out, so they don't really care anymore.
Right, but you know, uh, the tron, God, I
gotta find it now. But there's the trend in the tron stock term.
Yeah, tron. I don't know that. It's like we're getting old here,
but you know, tron meant something else. If anybody else out there
knows or remembers what the heck tron was, please tell me, uh email
address kl at Kerrie LUTs dot com. I will send you a pre nineteen
sixty five dime for the first five people who can figure out de fine a
tron okay. And I don't stocktron, I mean what is tron okay?
So anyways, and I'm not talking about the cryptocurrency tron either. Yeah.
I think some of the nomenclature I still have is probably antiqueted too. You
know, if I say that, you know this is going to come off
five dollars before coming off the board and rolling into the next contract. I
guess coming off the board is when they used to actually write it on more.
Yeah, and things like the ticker right yeah, nah, we date
ourselves now, right, but you know we still use that terminology even on
the trading flow board. We didn't even have a boarder. It's just a
terminology that just kept the flow over. So and you don't really have a
trading floor either. So another thing, you know, the Wall Street,
the New York Stock Exchange is just a gigantic backdrop where that really happens.
I think the I don't even think that people work on the floor anymore.
I think they're hired actors. They just have virtual back Yeah, it doesn't
exist. It's just a backdrop. It's just a big zoom call. You
don't know this, but the stock market has been replaced by one giant zoom
call and a little magician behind it. All right, and at the big
board there'll be selling condos at the end of the month. They're going to
come hurk. I always predicted that, Mike always Hey, I'll tell you,
well, Street doesn't really exist anymore. It's a it's a mean,
it's a it's a state of mind. It's not really a place anymore.
I mean, yeah, Broaden Wall exists, but nothing's happening there. People
lived there. I think the only thing happening there is the brass bullet's still
down there, pically data next to this bull's hindquarters. For certain reason,
that'll get it and the streets are blocked off, but for what purpose I
don't quite know. The residual effect of nine to eleven. Yeah, I
remember on nine to eleven. After that, I was our building. We
were the only people allowed below Chamber Street and west of Broadway for three months
after nine to eleven. Yeah. Spent a lot of my life down there,
Matt. Oh yeah, well down there at Pace University had a number
of offices down there, and it was really happy when I didn't have to
go there anymore. Yeah. I remember the first day going after nine eleven.
It was like all you did, all you smelled, was all this
acred smoke, and you couldn't got it further into subway because horrible Gobody's further
gone, absolutely horrible. All right. We had to march to work our
first day and in three single files with people with machine guns martshoots to work.
That's reassuring. Yeah, all right, so what do we got here?
Okay, so the crude on the very short term, this is basically
made a bullish a classic bearish structure, right, classic bullish correction against getting
higher lows. Now we see that and higher highs. Right, but now
we're breaking down. So we held this exhaustion level right here, we've taken
out this bearish formation. Now this is projected lower at least three and a
half dollars. We're probably going to come down and take out these lows down
here at seventy two thirty six, and then we're going to have to look
at a higher time frame exhaustion from this higher time frame move up here at
ninety twenty seven, and those exhaustion levels will come in around seventy forty two
to sixty nine to ninety one, and then lower levels down here at sixty
eight fifty four or sixty seven ninety Okay, all right, and just one
other thing. Just you can see here this whole formation up here is a
significant topping formation. So we broke below that, we sawnce move down here.
We've corrected a bit, so this could be way more than the three
and a half. Also, this could be a whole bearra structure that could
dig even deep, so we'll have to see. One last thing to say
is if we were to come back up and take this line out here,
this higher line which is going to move up, and just say we show
it stay where it is right now, that higher line comes in at eighty
one ninety tomorrow, will come in around eighty one ninety six. It moves
up about six cents a day. If we were to break back above that
line decently, then that would want a run for the Highes again, all
little bit back up at ninety twenty seven. So that is definitely the level
I would be paying attention to when I use the term decent. That's not
some kind of weird phrase. Decent is my terminology for a very specific volatility
adjusted stop. Today it just happens to be one hundred and one ticks or
a dollar in one set, but that changes from day to day. Okay,
all right, you want to look at that, you asked, do
you have any questions on that? No? I think we're good on that.
So we can look for lower prices there, and you know you think
at some point it's going higher here or what you out? Well, there's
glue all that line. I'll just give you the short term line right here.
Let me just h that's one more point I should make the short term
line that I talked about right here. Yeah, well, let me pull
it back up here. This line comes in at seventy six seventeen from two
o'clock to three o'clock Eastern Standard time today, it increases by one point seven
ticks per hour, or you could just say two ticks or two cents or
whatever you want. If we were to break back above that decently, that
would warned a run right back up to seventy nine sixty right. If we
take out this upper level up there, that warns much more substantial back up
to the ninety two to sixty nine level. That would be about twelve dollars.
But right now we're bearish right here. You could be short with the
very tight risk of about a dollar fifty and you'd be looking for at least
three dollars to the down side and a good deal more probably. Okay,
all right onwards an up words here. That's good. So natural gas,
the winter building being down to a lower timeframe again, you have you been
doing too good lately? Huh? We've been waiting for a breakout and nada.
Well, I've been barishing the natural gas for quite a bit. Let
me pull that up here real quick. So in the natural I said the
trade below eighty eight twenty eighty, I've bembarised since eight twenty eighty, and
we're trading two eighty right now, so I've be embarrassed from eight twenty eighty.
I wanted pressure we've seen six dollars and twenty six cents to the downside,
and there and then the tree below seven eighteen eighty also brought in five
dollars and twenty four cents. We left the bearish formation above again and here
and then the tree below five thirteen to four ninety nine to thirty projected this
downward two dollars and twenty seven minimum three seven plus maximum. We've seen three
dollars of that so far, so some major projections to the downside. More
recently, the break below three forty six ninety is brought in seven hundred and
nine ticks pressure. And as we came down here we broken below a major
formation up here. We've really been coming off from there. We held exhaustion
levels here, bounced a bit, another one here bounced a bit, but
couldn't generate a bullish correction, and we're still heading lower. The next exhaustion
level below is two fifty seventy. If we were to break above this formation
coming in right at above, which comes in at two eighty five fifty minus
two per hour starting at two o'clock PM, a decent break above there would
project this upward just you know, one hundred and fifty ticks minimum. It's
not a very major formation, but it could generate into a higher timeframe bullish
correction which could be substantial. We have to see if we were to get
back above these levels up in here around the three forty five to three fifty
area, then that would probably bring in straight up to the three eighty six
levels. And let me just zoom out for a second here on a daily
chart. This is the sixty minute try. I'm going to go to daily
chart right here and just zoom out with you for a minute. Here.
This is Each one of these bars represents the day's trading activity. So you
can see here we came up and we started this whole new bear trend in
here. So we've been in the sparas slide for quite a while. We
had a long sideways period and here that it looked like this might be a
base, but then we just cracked down below it and really came down in
here. So it's not the best thing for natural gas because for a trader's
perspective anyway, because usually when you get down on these levels, your volatility
becomes a lot lower. Unless we were to see some big new spike to
the upside. We'd have to see do you have any questions? Done that
before I move? Yeah? Keep going. Okay, you want to take
a look at the s and P five hundred next? Okay, no,
good, Okay, wait, we did the SMB first. I'm sorry,
excuse me? Yeah, yeah, let's do Gold all right? Gold?
All right, So Gold, I'm gonna really come out at a really high
time frame for everybody watching. This is a weekly time frome. Sorry,
that's not the right chart. Bear with me a moment. Okay, So
this is a more significant chart. I want to give you some perspective.
You're in a much higher level because there are you know where, really at
some critical levels in the ear you some of this stuff here, right,
So Gold, I caught you at eight sixteen eighteen at the break above eleven
seventy nine, warned of renewed strength. We've seen nine hundred and five and
outs through that, and then the break above thirteen forty seven projected this separate
eighty minimum three hundred and twenty plus maximum. We saw seven hundred and forty
four of that. Now, this sentence has literally been updated every day since
August sixteenth, twenty eighteen. Why am I bringing it up because that's when
I first kept bullush right in here, and then the brook of this basing
formation, which basically substantiated that this part of it was the beginning of a
bull trend. Right So we've seen one, two, three, four,
and now five the likely last stretch in this bull trend up into here.
So up in here we have to look at the possibilities of exhaustion levels.
I don't have them drawn on here right now. If we'll hold an exhaustion
level up there and really fail back down through all these areas, we could
see a much larger bearish projection of correction than these currently right now, though
we have broken back above this major to line. Sorry I'm moving this around
a little bit, and that comes in at two O five seventy three to
two O five excuse me, twenty fifty seven thirty to twenty fifty seven to
ten. So that warns a higher trade right now. If we fail back
down through that solidly, that will negate the bullishness above it. Solid today
happens to be eight dollars and ten cents, I mean lower time. I
just wanted to show you that all because that's just a higher tire frame perspective
where we are structurally in OK. Now, you know, two things could
happen. We can since this is con realidated here for quite a while after
a big road up right, we could see another significant run up into the
last stretch. That's a possibility. But if we break above all this stuff,
it really make some damage back down into it. We could see a
drop right back down to these lower levels here. And so I'm not trying
to talk duplicitly out of my mouth, but either sides, I'm just trying
to say the datst level, these general levels right here are very important to
understand and watch what the market does around them, because that will dictate what
the market does for the next you know, significant amount. This is the
longest gold has stayed over two thousand, isn't it Yep? For quite a
while yep. So that in itself is potential bullish indicator. Yeah, but
like I said, I think we're in the last stretch. If this moved
up so that that can mean do a couple of quick calculations right here,
and that would leave the first exhaustion level would be up two and twenty two
to two thousand and two hundred and sixty three it ounce, and then the
next level up above that will be around two thousand and three hundred and eighty
seven ounce. And then to go down to some lower time frame. Little
the lower timeframe picture, excuse me, okay, So in a lower time
frame, I warned down ten six of strainths and we left a moderate polish
reversal below. I update these, like I said every day from inception that
was holding these lows back down. And here we have the major exhaustion level
right here. We've got the bullish reversal. Then we broke above. A
macro formation right here, which I'll talk about in a minute, came up
and here I got bearish here, bearish here, bearish here. That all
turned around in here, and then bullish above this and pullish above here,
and now we're running to the upside. I'm just fitting recapped that a little
bit. So I said, a ten to sixty water strain, we've seen
two hundred twenty seven higher from the eighteen forty five to twenty ten six close.
Then I said, the trade above nineteen forty ninety projects us up for
twenty two minimum one hundred and four plus maximum. We've attained one hundred and
thirty one point eight of that so far attaining that. By the way,
when I say one hundred and four plus maximum, people say, well,
what does that mean? One hundred and four plus maxim some formations of a
minimum projection and a quote maximum projection. But if the market is trending in
that direction, obviously you can see far more than the maxiwem the market is
currently trending in this direction. That is why we've seen more than the maximum,
and that's why I say one hundred and four plus maximum if that makes
sense. Yeah, total total, I get it. So, yeah,
we're right up near these really ikey levels. If we fell back down through
that level I was talking about earlier solidly, that'll warrant a pressure again.
Let me just take another look at this and then very short term, we
got some tech little formations right here here. This formation right above comes in
at two six fifty two gives me twenty Look me, I'm sorry, We'll
were around too many more. Gets here. The problem I gotta get by
ready dobcat twenty sixty five even minus two per hour starting at one thirty PM,
So now two thirty so that's going to come down two points, but
decent break above there, I'll just project this up. We're you know,
ten dollars fifteen dollars. If we break below this formation down below, that's
a more substantial formation, and this could really have some uh some down not
very substantial, but to the tune of stee here got it. So you
can see forty two dollars to the down side below there that comes in at
well, this redrow this at two thirty, that's going to come in at
twenty forty to forty plus two point seven per hour. A decent break below
there, decent break is going to be around seven dollars. You get a
risk seven dollars back above it. A decent break below they're probably project this
doat what about forty two dollars minimum. If we were to break below that
decently and back up through it decently, that would be an excellent opportunity to
get long, and then I would look for the market to run right back
up, take these highs out and keep on going. All right, all
right, all right, I like it. All right On to bitcoin.
That was good. The moment you've all been waiting for. You get a
lot of bitcoin years. It just oh yeah, oh really that's interesting okay,
so we bitcoins. Well then all right, so then I'm just going
to go to a higher time train for well your bitcoin advocates out there.
This is my This is a chart that basically has all the calls, a
lot of the lines that made calls on over the past couple of years.
I started analyzing the big quarterback, I guess back in December of two thousand
and twenty. But we've made a lot. Forget, don't worry about all
these lines. I know they look ridiculous. This is just biol analysis,
so that these are just saved. We just had this long bear structure now
in here, we started a new bull structure up. We had a bearish
correction against it, and we're in the midst of the new bull structure to
the outside. So let me get rid of this so it doesn't give you
any headaches, and we'll drill down to the lower time frame. This is
now a sixty minute chart. Again, all these lines are from pass calls
that I've laid right, let me give you a little bit of higher timeframe.
So again, this looks like a lot of writing, right, but
you'll notice that this part of the paragraph is all on hold. You'll notice
that this part of this paragraph is all on hold, and only this part
of the paragraph is live. Why are the hold That's because I do.
Each of the markets that I analyze, I analyzed from a hedge a hedge
fund perspective, so I analyze from higher time frame down to medium time frame,
down to lower time frame. So, for example, I said here
the rollover on eleven ten twenty one put this in a bearish trend. I
warned the sell off should see thirteen thousand dollars per corning from the high of
sixty nine to three fifty five. We saw fifty four thousand, and four
hundred and thirty of this, So that means that this sentence has been updated
every day since November tenth of twenty twenty one. And then they had various
other bearish projections to the donata side. Then those were all put on hold,
and I said, the break back above sixteen thousand, two hundred and
seventy five was bullish. That brought in twenty three thousand and eighty five a
strength. Then we rolled into a lower time frame bearish correction, which i'd
no lower talk about in here because it was all accomplished in whatever And then
I said that the trade back above twenty five thousand, three undred thirty five
to five eighty five signaled we put in put in a low and are in
a bullish trend. So we've seen thirteen thousand, seven, one hundred and
seventy five of that so far. And you'll notice I had a couple other
a number of other bullsh projections in here, and I said that these are
off hold. Okay, So these lines all represented different formations that we've broken
above and had different projections upward here and here and here right now, we're
in this consolidation phase right now. So down to the very nitty gritty as
of two o'clock from two o'clock to four o'clock or two o'clock to three o'clock,
we have a couple of different formations. This formation right above comes in
at thirty eight nine thirty four ve spot per hour starting at two o'clock PM
Eastern Standard time. Decent break above there will warn of decent strength, not
very significant to kind of a small formation decent today with six hundred and twenty
five. This formation above is a more significant formation that comes in at twenty
nine to two thirty three thirty nine two thirty three plus two per hour starting
at two o'clock PM Eastern state of time. And if we fail back below
this lower formation that's going to commit at thirty eight one eighty five plus fourteen
per hour, that's going to want a pressure for maybe one thousand dollars According
twelve hundred dollars A Corp. These aren't like big formations right there. I'm
just talking very short term. If we break down below this formation right here,
though, that is a little bit more substantial, that's going to commit
at thirty six six nine plus five hour starting at two o'clock PM, that
would project this downward thirty two hundred coring plus. If we were to break
below there decently and back up through it decently, that would be an excellent
opportunity to get long because at that point you will have broken below at Barris
formation, failed to break down and broke the back above it. That should
propel us right back up towards these highs and beyond. That could also be
an opportunity to broke below there and came back above. You can get in
there. Then when we broke back above these other lines, you can move
your stop up where he stops up and then this thing can really take off.
And just backing up, sorry me, we get a cleaner chart here
for you to look at for a second. Just a reminder. This was
a full structure right here, followed by a bear structure that was completed,
and this I believe is a we're in the midst of the new bowl structure.
So I still think in general this has a lot of potential to the
upside, regardless of whether we pull back and consolidate or do what that do
whatever. Also, just you know, I said when we came down through
all this stuff back in May at twenty twenty two, especially when we failed
back back below all these levels, that was pretty bearish. We came down,
we dribbled all the way down into here, and then I said,
if we got back above these levels, that was a sign of strength.
And we've held above there and then these next levels right up in here,
we've taken all this stuff out. So these are structural things that show strength
in the market, a good potential in general to the upside. You got
any questions on that? So if we go high or how high do you
think it can go? Well, I don't have a specific projection right here.
Usually I go off of what are quote projections, which are also different
measured formations in general. Since a second here, let's just say that this
formation right here, this structure right was eighty six two hundred from there see
that to the upside minimum up in here to forty one nine fifty. But
I don't really have any specific projections. We could talk about that on the
next show and whatever come back on if I see other things I can tell
you about. But one things I would just lead with maybe some of your
viewers is probably one of the most classic mistakes that I see of quote investors
is let's say they have a run up here and then it starts going against
them. They'll hold on to it. They'll hold on to it, They'll
hold that it's going to turn back to the upside, and it keeps on
going down. And the worst thing that can happen to then is that actually
does go in their faith, because essentially what they're doing is they're averaging down
against themselves. Because you have no idea how low a market can go,
which if better or off getting out of the market when it breaks below a
formation that an analyst can give you at least a competent analyst and then take
shots on getting along again and paying for the trades, and taking a number
of shots all the way down trying to catch your bounce. That will cost
you far less on the way down. And you can even make money on
the way down. That'll cost you far less than just holding a position and
hoping as it goes all the way against you. And I just want to
give you one classic example of what I'm talking about, so this can be
seared into everybody's heads, is if you remember this example that I'm about to
give you and remember it, it can save you catastrophic losses in the future.
One of the things about being an analyst for thirty years is I've seen
pretty much anything in the mark you could throw you that that's been throw to
you over these fast years. And this is the crude oil. And when
I was analyzing this, this is the adjusted daily continuation truck. Let me
let me take it off of that for a second, just to make a
quick point. So when I was analyzing this, I have big embarrassed projections
in here and calling the market for about forty dollars to the damn side.
Now I want to tell you that when it got down into here, it
got really ugly, okay. And never at any point did I say this
market is quote over sold. The reason why I'd never say that something is
over sold or overbought, Okay, I mean, I know that we need
to use that terminology in certain situations, in a certain perspective. But never
at one time on the way down here, did I say this is just
too cheap, you got to buy it. Okay. Now, what I
mean by that is, nobody ever thought that crude oil see this warzonal line
I have here, that's zero. Nobody ever thought the crude oil could go
to negative per barro, of course, but the valuation of this in one
day went from zero dollars a barrow down to negative forty dollars a borrow.
That's forty thousand dollars per contract. Let alone, if you bought it at
ten dollars above there and thought it was a great deal, that'd be fifty
grand a contract. Anybody, unless you had a very small position that could
have gotten blown out of their entire portfolio on a situation like this, Okay.
And I could show you other examples in natural gas in the past where
we've had insane moves, and nobody ever thought was a was quote possible,
right, these kind of moves that you've seen here where I came in and
the market was double limit up overnight. For those of you that don't know
what live it up means in natural gas, at the time, it was
seven hundred ticks or seven thousand dollars of contract. They for the people running
the overnight forgot to trip the trigger that stops the market. So the exchange's
decided to double the limit up, and it opened double limit up overnight fourteen
hundred ticks. That's fourteen thousand dollars per contract, and a number of traders
just blew out that day, and one guy knew lost four and a half
million dollars that day and by afternoon if you just held, if you would
have been able to hang on to his position, would have made half of
it back. But that's just the point. Wasn't able to get out of
it and didn't have any protection against it. So I'll make this point to
say that in big moves, if we're going back to the bitcoin, let
me just pull that beck Ou real quick. Get back to her what we
were talking about. So I hope I didn't in bitcoin on the way down
here, if you were a long bitcoin you could have called a nice ride.
And then if you have somebody, whether it's me or somebody else,
whatever, somebody who's competing in the market, understands what they're doing it having
bearished calls. You don't have to just hold the bitcoin and wait till it
goes up. You can make money on the way down and then get long
at it, get long at different levels on you know, down lower to
ride it back up. Sure, What job job want to do is just
buy something and hold on to it so it goes way against you, and
then be telling all your friends when it goes back into your favor how smart
you will. Okay, because that is a recipe for disaster, because just
like I showed you in the crude, you never know how far this market
is going to go against you. You know, though, there's a lot
of market sayings out there that I think are nonsense. One market saying that
I think is true is the markets can stay irrational. The markets can stay
irrational far longer, right, all right? I think that. Just tell
us again where we find your work, how we connect with you on the
web, your Mike, Okay, just put it right up there. More
Analytics go to more analytics dot com. If you are interested in getting a
free trial of any of the markets that I treat, just give me a
call on my phone right there and I'll set you up with a free trial.
It's not listed on the website because of issues. Were website all right?
Excellent? You'll find the link in the show notes to this interview on
Financial Survival Network dot com. Got a question for Mike or myself, shoot
me an email kl atcarrielots dot com. And while you're at the site to
just go sign up for your free newsletter. Mike. We'll talk to you
again real soon. Thanks for stopping by, Harry. It was a great
honor. Thank you very much, sir, I appreciate it. Thanks for
listening to Carrie Letz's Financial Survival Network, your solution to today's trying times.
For the latest, go to Financial Survivalnetwork dot com. Financial Survival Network now
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