1 00:00:00,680 --> 00:00:05,000 It's important to know these things. I guess or so I keep telling myself, 2 00:00:05,360 --> 00:00:11,080 not what your country can do for you, what you can do for 3 00:00:11,160 --> 00:00:23,920 your country. Mister gerbatchaf tear down this wall, read my lifts. Either 4 00:00:24,199 --> 00:00:29,480 you were with us or you were with the terrorists, even if they've never 5 00:00:29,519 --> 00:00:34,560 been on TikTok. Your trackers are embedded in sights across the wind. TikTok 6 00:00:34,640 --> 00:00:39,439 surveils us all and the Chinese Communist Party is able to use this as a 7 00:00:39,479 --> 00:00:44,960 tool to manipulate America as a whole. It's the Ricochet Podcast with Rob Long 8 00:00:45,119 --> 00:00:48,079 and Peter Robinson. I'm James Lilas and the day we talked to Nick Ever 9 00:00:48,119 --> 00:00:52,479 said about demographics, Russia, China, what's next? Let sabrisels a podcast. 10 00:00:52,640 --> 00:00:56,560 We never get bored. Welcome everybody, It's the Ricoche Podcast Nuver six 11 00:00:56,640 --> 00:01:00,320 hundred and thirty five. Why don't you join us at ricochet dot com. 12 00:01:00,359 --> 00:01:03,039 Go there now, take a look, and you're going to find the site 13 00:01:03,039 --> 00:01:06,879 you've been waiting for all your life. It's been there for decades, two 14 00:01:06,959 --> 00:01:11,599 decades, stretching into the mists of history and hopefully going on into the years 15 00:01:11,599 --> 00:01:15,560 to come. Because people like you will join and also joining me now me 16 00:01:15,719 --> 00:01:19,400 being James Lelex here in Minneapolis or Rob Long in New York, I presume 17 00:01:19,439 --> 00:01:25,879 in Peter Robinson in California. Gentlemen, Welcome, welcome, welcome there. 18 00:01:25,879 --> 00:01:29,560 We are coming to the end of the month, close to it, April 19 00:01:29,680 --> 00:01:38,959 Spring Beckons and the glorious site of a bipartisanship agreement on TikTok TikTok of all 20 00:01:40,000 --> 00:01:44,879 things. The CEO appeared on Thursday before the House Energy, Well Energy, 21 00:01:44,879 --> 00:01:51,840 and Commerce Committee to perhaps fend off a regulatory crackdown. However that may take 22 00:01:51,879 --> 00:01:55,480 form shape. They may have to spin it off into the Texas Project it's 23 00:01:55,519 --> 00:01:57,200 called. They may have to be more transparent about whether or not they're actually 24 00:01:57,439 --> 00:02:00,400 in coo hosts with the people who are putting we years in camps. If 25 00:02:00,400 --> 00:02:02,959 you saw any of that, gentleman, what did you think of it? 26 00:02:04,000 --> 00:02:07,519 And are you heartened or dismayed? I know Rob doesn't think that TikTok should 27 00:02:07,519 --> 00:02:13,759 be banned at all. He thinks that's a bridge too far. So well, 28 00:02:13,560 --> 00:02:15,879 well, I guess what I what I feel like is that it's um, 29 00:02:15,800 --> 00:02:20,919 it's a lot of theater. I'm not sure I know what it's supposed 30 00:02:20,960 --> 00:02:25,360 to do. I'm not sure that TikTok collects any information about Americans that Amazon 31 00:02:25,479 --> 00:02:30,879 and Google and Facebook and all those things don't. I mean, before you 32 00:02:30,919 --> 00:02:32,919 go any fire, can you tell me one critical difference between TikTok and those 33 00:02:32,919 --> 00:02:38,520 companies you just mentioned. Well, yeah, I mean TikTok is you know, 34 00:02:38,840 --> 00:02:44,159 TikTok reports to the Communist Party of China, Right, It's also a 35 00:02:44,199 --> 00:02:46,680 huge American hedge funds one giant pieces of it. Depending on how you look 36 00:02:46,719 --> 00:02:50,280 at it, the data is the data, where the data is kept is 37 00:02:50,759 --> 00:02:53,960 look. Look. I think that being more careful about where our data is 38 00:02:53,280 --> 00:02:58,479 it is probably a good idea. But the idea that, amongst all the 39 00:02:58,560 --> 00:03:04,000 threats that are reat in America an American sovereignty today, that we should be 40 00:03:05,080 --> 00:03:10,479 I think wasting our time with the trivial triviality of TikTok is kind of silly. 41 00:03:10,680 --> 00:03:16,039 TikTok is dangerous to American children because social media is dangerous to American children. 42 00:03:16,080 --> 00:03:20,599 American I cus are going down, not up for the first time ever. 43 00:03:21,000 --> 00:03:25,520 And so but I wouldn't I wouldn't say TikTok is uniquely more dangerous than 44 00:03:25,599 --> 00:03:32,280 Instagram or Snapchat or Twitter for that matter. I mean as somebody who I 45 00:03:32,280 --> 00:03:36,039 mean, I'm familiar with all of them. I'm not a big fan of 46 00:03:36,759 --> 00:03:42,639 them. I guess Instagram I like as I'm old, but the actual I 47 00:03:42,639 --> 00:03:49,879 mean, to be quite honest, the the supervision on TikTok is better than 48 00:03:49,919 --> 00:03:55,080 the supervision on Twitter. Twitter is a pornography delivery device. That's what it 49 00:03:55,280 --> 00:04:00,439 does. Now, it's porn. You don't see porn on TikTok. There 50 00:04:00,439 --> 00:04:08,919 are words you can't say on TikTok um, so we have to be careful 51 00:04:08,960 --> 00:04:11,319 about. I mean, look, I hate to try answer to but my 52 00:04:11,639 --> 00:04:15,319 answer to brother Rob, my answer to Brother Rob is this nice try. 53 00:04:16,000 --> 00:04:23,800 The distinction is that TikTok reports by means that we that are not necessarily that 54 00:04:23,879 --> 00:04:28,079 are that are difficult to outline because the Chinese want them to be difficult. 55 00:04:28,959 --> 00:04:32,199 It reports to China. It's owned in one way or another. The ultimate 56 00:04:32,240 --> 00:04:38,000 authority is China, and the ultimate authority in China is the Chinese Communist Party, 57 00:04:38,399 --> 00:04:43,759 and fools that they are. They proved it by announcing just before the 58 00:04:43,839 --> 00:04:46,800 hearings were to begin, I believe the day before the hearings were to begin 59 00:04:46,079 --> 00:04:51,879 that they the Chinese Communist Party would oppose a forced sale of TikTok, meaning 60 00:04:53,199 --> 00:05:00,560 they feel it's theirs Okay I found yesterday heartening. You can say, and 61 00:05:00,800 --> 00:05:06,079 you are right, that there are worst problems addressing the country facing the country. 62 00:05:06,600 --> 00:05:12,000 But it's a sloppy democracy. Democracy is always sloppy. One of the 63 00:05:12,240 --> 00:05:17,920 rare areas of agreement, one of the real bipartisan places of agreement is that 64 00:05:18,079 --> 00:05:25,560 everybody now recognizes that China is a threat. Cold War two has now begun 65 00:05:25,720 --> 00:05:30,879 in Ukraine. It's an old fashioned proxy war in one way, Ukraine is 66 00:05:30,879 --> 00:05:35,040 our proxy. Russia is now China's proxy. This has gotten serious. Nancy 67 00:05:35,079 --> 00:05:41,759 Pelosi. I will give you a long list of charges against Nancy Pelosi, 68 00:05:42,560 --> 00:05:46,839 but she is opposed to China. She visited Taiwan to put a thumb in 69 00:05:46,839 --> 00:05:55,199 the eye of the Chinese and Nancy Pelosi's Democratic Party rex sis TikTok as a 70 00:05:55,279 --> 00:05:59,879 danger. And because there's a lot of theater. Of course it's half eggnor 71 00:06:00,000 --> 00:06:04,160 and so forth. But because there is a bipartisan consensus on this, Dan 72 00:06:04,240 --> 00:06:11,560 Crenshaw thanked the CEO of TikTok for bringing Congress together legislation of some kind is 73 00:06:11,639 --> 00:06:15,720 very likely to come out of this. I think, so China is bad, 74 00:06:15,879 --> 00:06:18,720 It's really dangerous. And if the way of standing up to China involves 75 00:06:18,720 --> 00:06:23,519 a great deal of silliness, so be it. Okay, I agree with 76 00:06:23,600 --> 00:06:29,160 most of that, except that my concern is that it doesn't it doesn't go 77 00:06:29,279 --> 00:06:33,240 beyond the silly and the window dressing. Our entanglements with China are so deep 78 00:06:33,279 --> 00:06:38,240 and so complicated and so dangerous. And I agree with you about the danger 79 00:06:38,720 --> 00:06:43,319 that to focus on a social media application, which by the way, doesn't 80 00:06:43,360 --> 00:06:48,360 have that much data that's useful to the Chinese, isn't right now a purchasing 81 00:06:48,399 --> 00:06:56,439 platform, unlike Instagram. Seems like we're going to exhaust ourselves the way people 82 00:06:56,439 --> 00:07:00,680 in Congress often do with a trivial matter, and not get into the deeper 83 00:07:00,680 --> 00:07:04,920 stuff like the continuing number of American businesses that do business in China, the 84 00:07:05,079 --> 00:07:13,360 continuing dependence on Chinese capital, the continuing dependence on Chinese electronics and component manufacturer, 85 00:07:14,639 --> 00:07:16,279 or the hearing that was taking place at almost the same time in a 86 00:07:16,319 --> 00:07:21,199 different hearing room on the defense budget, which is clearly inadequate. The defense 87 00:07:21,240 --> 00:07:25,680 budget is the usual little increment over this overwell, you spent last year's of 88 00:07:25,759 --> 00:07:30,000 vast sums and they're sat the Secretary of Defense and the Chairman of the Joys 89 00:07:30,079 --> 00:07:32,319 Chiefs saying no, no, no, no, this is plenty for China 90 00:07:32,399 --> 00:07:36,480 for standing up to China. No problem, that's serious. I agree that's 91 00:07:36,519 --> 00:07:41,720 serious, and it wasn't being taken seriously. And that's just defense. What 92 00:07:41,839 --> 00:07:46,199 I mean the commercial entanglements that American business, in American commerce has right now, 93 00:07:46,879 --> 00:07:49,160 and it seems to me that you know, there's a certain amount of 94 00:07:49,160 --> 00:07:53,519 that. That's that's why I don't I'm not arguing that TikTok is not a 95 00:07:53,600 --> 00:07:56,360 threat in any way. I actually feel like TikTok is more of a threat 96 00:07:57,040 --> 00:08:03,399 as it's because it's part of a social media tendency which has been dangerous and 97 00:08:03,519 --> 00:08:09,079 has been you know, kind of cretinizing a lot of Americans. But I'm 98 00:08:09,079 --> 00:08:16,800 more concerned with what with how we get financial the large financial institutions including insurance 99 00:08:16,800 --> 00:08:28,519 companies, electronics, component manufacturing, virus and medical research facilities, and how 100 00:08:28,560 --> 00:08:33,960 we disentangle commercially from China. I don't see a path to standing up to 101 00:08:35,080 --> 00:08:41,559 China, to holding it back from its ambition to be the regional hegemon. 102 00:08:41,639 --> 00:08:43,960 As they say, I don't see a path to do that as long as 103 00:08:43,960 --> 00:08:48,080 we are this and meshed with them economically. That is the difference between Cold 104 00:08:48,120 --> 00:08:52,120 War One and Cold War two. You have hearings like this in order to 105 00:08:52,159 --> 00:08:56,840 sort of set the stage for introducing more people to the idea of unmeshing. 106 00:08:56,360 --> 00:09:01,080 There's already a lot of people who post pandemic thinking about wait a minute, 107 00:09:01,120 --> 00:09:05,720 Okay, I've been coasting along on this nice, gauzy, warm, humid 108 00:09:05,759 --> 00:09:09,600 breeze for all of these years, thinking that we get and we get involved 109 00:09:09,600 --> 00:09:11,759 with China. They liberalized, they get rich. They're not comedies anymore. 110 00:09:11,840 --> 00:09:15,320 I mean, they're really not comedies anymore. They call themselves comedies. But 111 00:09:15,360 --> 00:09:16,600 come on, with all that commerce and all that money and all those skyscrapers, 112 00:09:16,639 --> 00:09:20,279 it can't be comedies. And eventually everybody's going to get along because they 113 00:09:20,320 --> 00:09:24,120 need us and we need them, and we got some cheap goods and that's 114 00:09:24,200 --> 00:09:26,039 great, and they're getting richer and all. Well, it doesn't work anymore 115 00:09:26,080 --> 00:09:28,919 for a variety of reasons. Is I think we're going to hear in the 116 00:09:28,000 --> 00:09:31,879 rest of this show, so a lot of people post pandemic, all of 117 00:09:31,919 --> 00:09:35,080 a sudden had a twig snap in their brains say, wait a minute, 118 00:09:35,159 --> 00:09:37,720 this is not working out for us. All of a sudden, they were 119 00:09:37,759 --> 00:09:39,679 the guys who sent this thing here, whether inadvertently or not. I think 120 00:09:39,720 --> 00:09:43,440 it was inadvertently. They're the guys who lied about it. They're the guys 121 00:09:43,480 --> 00:09:46,399 who made it, probably with funding from our inmeshment here. They're the guys 122 00:09:46,399 --> 00:09:48,960 who bought up all the cop They're the guy, wait a minute, can 123 00:09:50,039 --> 00:09:54,240 we maybe not can we maybe start making some stuff ourselves? And that's no 124 00:09:54,399 --> 00:10:01,360 longer a small little crazy adam floating around in the body politic. I think 125 00:10:01,399 --> 00:10:05,799 a lot of people are looking to re shore or to reposition. People are 126 00:10:05,879 --> 00:10:09,360 happy when we find that, oh they're building in India, they're building in 127 00:10:09,879 --> 00:10:13,600 Vietnam. That's good. Let's have some more of that, because China is 128 00:10:13,679 --> 00:10:18,360 not our friend. So what do you do then to amplify that idea amongst 129 00:10:18,360 --> 00:10:20,879 the people who pay a lot of attention. Maybe you show them exactly what 130 00:10:22,080 --> 00:10:24,240 this little thing in their hands is doing. And I agree with Rob. 131 00:10:24,320 --> 00:10:28,600 The problem is not TikTok as much as it is the criticization. Great word 132 00:10:28,639 --> 00:10:31,279 of what social media has done. Every time that you see a mob of 133 00:10:31,399 --> 00:10:35,879 youth in a McDonald's or a target or a shopping mah god, start to 134 00:10:35,960 --> 00:10:39,120 attack somebody. Half the people are landing the blows on the other half of 135 00:10:39,200 --> 00:10:41,720 their cameras up black mirror style, holding it to get it, to put 136 00:10:41,759 --> 00:10:46,240 it on world, start to put it on TikTok, to immortalize this great 137 00:10:46,320 --> 00:10:52,600 moment of mob violence in order to get themselves clicks and light. These people 138 00:10:52,679 --> 00:10:58,399 are lost, that generation, that part, that element of society is lost. 139 00:11:00,320 --> 00:11:03,919 So I don't think you can train them to think that this is all 140 00:11:03,039 --> 00:11:05,159 until they grow up and realize it. Maybe that is in a way that 141 00:11:05,200 --> 00:11:11,120 you behave. But something that says, this device in your hand is doing 142 00:11:11,279 --> 00:11:13,759 something to you. Snapshot, Yeah, I don't know you snapchet Twitter the 143 00:11:13,840 --> 00:11:16,919 porn deliberty device. You know, it depends how you follow it to pop 144 00:11:18,000 --> 00:11:20,240 up in my feet. I get mostly news and the rest of it. 145 00:11:20,320 --> 00:11:24,919 But just talking about the actual I'm talking about the the the aggregate, okay, 146 00:11:26,039 --> 00:11:31,080 media delivery on Twitter. But TikTok is different in the sense of that 147 00:11:31,000 --> 00:11:35,519 is there a TikTok in China? No? There isn't They have a completely 148 00:11:35,559 --> 00:11:37,159 different, separate app for that, and it has different algorithms, and it 149 00:11:37,240 --> 00:11:41,679 has different instructional purposes. It glorifies people who go to school and learn their 150 00:11:41,759 --> 00:11:45,159 lessons and learn math and the rest of it, and instills into them, 151 00:11:46,080 --> 00:11:48,159 you know, Middle kingdom superiority, the one that they god for us, 152 00:11:48,240 --> 00:11:52,519 seems to have an algorithm in it that services the craziest stuff. And so 153 00:11:52,080 --> 00:11:56,360 we keep having this, this feedback loop of insanity that keeps amplifying until the 154 00:11:56,440 --> 00:12:00,399 more and more you get jaded, more and more and more and more with 155 00:12:00,559 --> 00:12:05,919 this little destructive device that preaches nothing essentially but pranking and anti social behavior. 156 00:12:05,039 --> 00:12:09,559 And I mean, yes, there's all the other things that people use TikTok 157 00:12:09,639 --> 00:12:15,720 for, but is it a societal destabilization device at its worst? Yeah? 158 00:12:16,440 --> 00:12:18,759 And if you'd gone back forty years and said, I predict the future in 159 00:12:18,879 --> 00:12:22,519 which a communist nation will put into the hands of our uses a glowing grass 160 00:12:22,559 --> 00:12:26,440 glass rectangle that will break down their social ability and we'll be powerless to stop 161 00:12:26,480 --> 00:12:30,919 it, it would have been paranoid, coldware nonsense. But now we kind 162 00:12:30,960 --> 00:12:33,279 of shrug and say, what are you going to do? And besides, 163 00:12:33,279 --> 00:12:35,759 we have bigger problems. We can walk and chew gum. We can separate 164 00:12:35,840 --> 00:12:41,200 TikTok from its Chinese elements, do something about what it amplifies in the you 165 00:12:41,240 --> 00:12:45,120 know, in the name of providing an alternative to people. That isn't this 166 00:12:46,120 --> 00:12:48,720 bread and circuses in the palm of their hand nonsense? That is correct, 167 00:12:48,840 --> 00:12:50,759 none, that's not going to happen if we get rid of TikTok, right, 168 00:12:50,799 --> 00:12:54,279 I mean bread and circuses? Is Snapchat? I mean Snapchat's in an 169 00:12:54,279 --> 00:12:58,159 American company, and it's just as just as addictive and just as weird, 170 00:12:58,320 --> 00:13:01,960 and just as all those things they're They're a little bit friendlier. They don't 171 00:13:03,039 --> 00:13:05,799 have an entanglement with the Chi coms, And I understand that is an issue, 172 00:13:07,240 --> 00:13:11,559 But I'm not even arguing that we shouldn't be concerned about it. I'm 173 00:13:11,559 --> 00:13:15,960 just we should arguing that there are other the other the device that you're looking 174 00:13:16,039 --> 00:13:22,120 at this software on is the to me, let me finish is a bigger 175 00:13:22,279 --> 00:13:30,120 problem than the software that you're using. The device is manufactured in China with 176 00:13:30,720 --> 00:13:35,879 uh in Chinese factories. That that is to me a higher priority. How 177 00:13:35,919 --> 00:13:43,799 do we get phones in our hands that don't rely on economic dealings with the 178 00:13:43,960 --> 00:13:46,759 Chinese. That's a very difficult problem. Cook is working on that problem. 179 00:13:48,000 --> 00:13:52,720 Yes, he's working on that problem because he said he knows that sentiment in 180 00:13:52,799 --> 00:13:54,360 this country. I beg your pardon. Yeah, Tim Cook is working on 181 00:13:54,440 --> 00:13:58,879 that problem because he knows that sentiment in this country has shifted. And he 182 00:13:58,960 --> 00:14:03,240 will have had the televison in his office in the background yesterday and thinking, 183 00:14:03,360 --> 00:14:05,840 and he'll be thinking to himself, Ooh, maybe we'd better move out of 184 00:14:05,919 --> 00:14:09,919 China a little faster. By the way, my favorite summary statement on all 185 00:14:09,000 --> 00:14:16,279 this, professor Jennifer Lynde at Dartmouth tweeted, proving that a brilliant professor can 186 00:14:16,600 --> 00:14:22,360 use Twitter. It's on TikTok. Jennifer lynd of Dartmouth. It's a tough 187 00:14:22,440 --> 00:14:26,759 issue to be sure. On the one hand, TikTok shares user data with 188 00:14:26,840 --> 00:14:31,600 an a How's ai superpower rival, and on the other hand, it recks 189 00:14:31,679 --> 00:14:37,799 kids brains. It's both. I wanted to agree with Rob when he was 190 00:14:37,879 --> 00:14:39,879 going off. I wasn't trying to cut into disagree. I was cutting into 191 00:14:39,919 --> 00:14:43,919 agree because yes, the problem is the device in our hands. But actually 192 00:14:43,200 --> 00:14:46,720 I wasn't thinking of it as being where it's from, and where the materials 193 00:14:46,799 --> 00:14:50,039 come from, and who builds it. I'm thinking about the actual existential nature 194 00:14:50,279 --> 00:14:54,759 the device itself. I love my phone. I love being connected to every 195 00:14:54,840 --> 00:14:58,759 single piece of information in human history. I love getting all of my music. 196 00:14:58,840 --> 00:15:01,159 I love my movies. I love the way it tells me how I 197 00:15:01,159 --> 00:15:03,559 can get home and with another's traffic. Everything about it I love. But 198 00:15:03,720 --> 00:15:07,279 the fact is is that it is a portal also to madness and sociopathy, 199 00:15:07,399 --> 00:15:11,639 and disconnected from all of the traditional elements of society that have bound us together 200 00:15:11,879 --> 00:15:16,279 low these many millennium. The problem is that people want what is coming through 201 00:15:16,320 --> 00:15:20,360 it. If there is a channel, if there's an app that shows nothing 202 00:15:20,440 --> 00:15:26,080 but disembowelings and in decapitations, I don't want to watch that. I'm not 203 00:15:26,120 --> 00:15:28,480 going to watch that. I'm just not in the same sense that if you 204 00:15:28,519 --> 00:15:31,200 put a pile of guns and drugs in the middle of an Amish community, 205 00:15:31,200 --> 00:15:35,480 they're not going to start killing each other and getting high. The culture that 206 00:15:35,559 --> 00:15:39,080 people bring to the thing is the problem. And we have a culture that 207 00:15:39,279 --> 00:15:43,879 has the guardrails peeled off, that have the stop sticks removed, the speed 208 00:15:43,960 --> 00:15:50,159 bumps shaved down, and now there is a absolute complete race to the bottom 209 00:15:50,600 --> 00:15:54,720 that everybody's enjoying for likes and lulls and clicks. And that's the problem. 210 00:15:56,080 --> 00:15:58,759 The problem is the culture of the people who come to this device in the 211 00:15:58,799 --> 00:16:02,080 first place, not the device, not where it's made, not the app. 212 00:16:02,399 --> 00:16:04,519 The problem is the culture in the people who are making things worse. 213 00:16:06,279 --> 00:16:08,559 Oh man, do I feel old? But I don't. Actually, I 214 00:16:08,600 --> 00:16:11,000 don't feel you know. And the thing is, I've been working out, 215 00:16:11,360 --> 00:16:15,080 I've been watching my diet. I feel pretty good. But the question is, 216 00:16:15,240 --> 00:16:18,840 you know, you do all these things to extend your lifespan. What's 217 00:16:18,919 --> 00:16:22,679 the point if you feel old? Well, the point is is that it 218 00:16:22,879 --> 00:16:26,879 is possible, you might say, to extend the lifespan and feel youngers. 219 00:16:26,000 --> 00:16:30,240 That is that can you do that? Well? According to a Harvard scientist 220 00:16:30,279 --> 00:16:34,320 and Nobel Prize winning breakthrough, absolutely it's possible. Oh well, by lengthening 221 00:16:34,759 --> 00:16:40,440 your telomeres. Your telomeres they protect your DNA and they play a critical role 222 00:16:40,480 --> 00:16:44,440 in the aging process. But many of us struggle with a shortening telomeres thanks 223 00:16:44,480 --> 00:16:48,720 to stress and unhealthy food and obesity and more. 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Go 231 00:17:21,960 --> 00:17:25,960 to Youthswitch MD dot com slash ricochet to claim your supply of youth Switch and 232 00:17:26,039 --> 00:17:30,880 all five bonus gifts. That's youth Switch MD dot com slash ricochet to order 233 00:17:30,960 --> 00:17:34,640 youth Switch today, and we thank youth Switch for sponsoring this the Ricochet Podcast 234 00:17:36,000 --> 00:17:38,519 and now we're welcome to the podcast. Nicholas Eberstadt he holds the Henry Went 235 00:17:38,680 --> 00:17:42,799 Chair in Political Economy at the American Enterprise Institute. He's the author of Russia's 236 00:17:42,880 --> 00:17:48,319 Peacetime Demographic Crisis and the book Men Without Work, America's Invisible Crisis, and 237 00:17:48,440 --> 00:17:56,119 he's written extensively on demographics and economic development throughout the world. Welcome Nick Well, 238 00:17:56,160 --> 00:18:00,119 we had g and putin meet today. Each country faces their own demographics 239 00:18:00,359 --> 00:18:03,759 for different reasons. China's suffering in war, will suffer some say, the 240 00:18:03,839 --> 00:18:08,000 catastrophic fall out of the one child policy. All Russia. It's got a 241 00:18:08,039 --> 00:18:11,400 lot of men who get drunk and don't reproduce, and they're slaughtering huge numbers 242 00:18:11,440 --> 00:18:15,799 of their future generation in a pointless war. So pick one of those, 243 00:18:15,880 --> 00:18:18,839 whichever you wish to discuss first, and tell us what the situation really is 244 00:18:18,920 --> 00:18:26,160 demographically for the other countries we seem to be facing and squaring off against Bielder's 245 00:18:26,319 --> 00:18:30,799 choice. It's a no limits alliance with a lot of demographic limits. Right. 246 00:18:30,319 --> 00:18:41,599 So in Russia, the biggest problem is is the paradox of high education 247 00:18:41,839 --> 00:18:47,680 low human capital. They've got a europe style education profile, lots of time 248 00:18:47,880 --> 00:18:52,279 trapped in classrooms, but they've got a health profile for young men that looks 249 00:18:52,359 --> 00:18:56,039 kind of like the country of Haiti. It's not even third world. It 250 00:18:56,079 --> 00:19:00,480 would be unfair to say it's a third world profile because a third world would 251 00:19:00,480 --> 00:19:04,599 object. That's apart from that's apart from the casualties they're suffering in Ukly. 252 00:19:04,599 --> 00:19:11,920 Apart from the casualties, they they casties not improve it. They've they've figured 253 00:19:11,960 --> 00:19:18,960 out that you don't need to have starvation and communicable disease to die prematurely. 254 00:19:18,079 --> 00:19:27,480 They do it through injury and through vodkacascular disease. So they're they're punching way 255 00:19:27,640 --> 00:19:37,160 below their weight economically because they've got this kleptocracy which smothers the value of human 256 00:19:37,240 --> 00:19:40,880 resources. And part of I think what's been going on for the last two 257 00:19:41,000 --> 00:19:48,039 decades with the Kremlin, with Putin's Kremlin, is trying to engage in increasingly 258 00:19:48,680 --> 00:19:53,000 risky behavior, getting away with it to compensate for this down glide path. 259 00:19:53,200 --> 00:19:56,920 And you know, it works. It works until it doesn't. And now 260 00:19:56,960 --> 00:20:00,519 we're kind of seeing what happens when when it may not work anymore. And 261 00:20:00,759 --> 00:20:04,200 China, Nick, your piece in the Wall Street Journal I've lost track now 262 00:20:04,480 --> 00:20:10,559 about ten days or so ago, in which you argued that, of course 263 00:20:10,720 --> 00:20:15,319 you repeated the figures on China, the demographic collapse in China, not collapse, 264 00:20:15,400 --> 00:20:18,440 but the shrinking of the Chinese population. But you argued in a way 265 00:20:18,480 --> 00:20:25,039 I had never seen before that it poses a particular problem for China because of 266 00:20:25,079 --> 00:20:27,720 the traditional Chinese family. Could you draw that out, Star Well, I 267 00:20:27,759 --> 00:20:34,799 mean the current circumstance with the birth drop and you could call it a collapse 268 00:20:36,279 --> 00:20:40,839 over the last six years, because I think that tells us that there's something 269 00:20:41,079 --> 00:20:45,920 really snaky going on there. But that's for a moment or two from now. 270 00:20:47,359 --> 00:20:52,079 I've done some homework with a friend and colleague of mine at Penn State, 271 00:20:52,160 --> 00:20:57,720 a really good demographer named Ashton Verderi, and we've kind of we've projected 272 00:20:57,799 --> 00:21:04,279 out, we've modeled out what happens to the Chinese family in the decades immediately 273 00:21:04,319 --> 00:21:10,440 ahead. And the reason that you haven't seen anything on this before, Peter, 274 00:21:10,680 --> 00:21:14,599 is because you know, demographers, like economists or like dogs with a 275 00:21:14,680 --> 00:21:17,640 dog dish, right, if there aren't any data, they don't play with 276 00:21:17,720 --> 00:21:25,359 the data. And no government in the world collects information on family structure, 277 00:21:25,480 --> 00:21:30,119 you know. They censuses were started in you know, the Mediterranean and in 278 00:21:30,359 --> 00:21:37,279 East Asia to mobilize military manpower and attacks people. So it's all headcounts and 279 00:21:37,359 --> 00:21:42,480 households. We went through and simulated what was at what had actually happened with 280 00:21:42,680 --> 00:21:48,480 families in China over the past century and where things look like you're going, 281 00:21:48,000 --> 00:21:55,359 and it's a it makes all of the headcount stuff look a lot more acute 282 00:21:55,640 --> 00:22:00,519 and makes it look a lot more pessimistic. So there's there's a a collapse 283 00:22:00,799 --> 00:22:04,920 of extended family, and you can say collapse. It's a really it's like 284 00:22:06,000 --> 00:22:11,920 a roller coaster ride down and there's no way to stop at And it's also 285 00:22:11,000 --> 00:22:18,240 a tilt towards taking care of old people. There'll be more more parents to 286 00:22:18,559 --> 00:22:22,200 look after for middle aged people than children. And China, if I understand 287 00:22:22,240 --> 00:22:27,400 the argument, I'm going to bring my ignorance to bear on your genius neck 288 00:22:27,480 --> 00:22:33,920 here. I'm going to try to layer my own questioning your peace with my 289 00:22:33,480 --> 00:22:40,599 attempt to understand it. In Chinese society historically, it's a little bit it's 290 00:22:40,920 --> 00:22:44,960 a little bit like it Italy in the senses you have centuries in which the 291 00:22:45,039 --> 00:22:49,279 government has never really to have been trusted, and so the family networks of 292 00:22:49,359 --> 00:22:56,640 family, extended families, this has been the network of trust that has permitted 293 00:22:56,400 --> 00:23:03,200 economic activity to take place. Your great uncle knows somebody's grandfather. You're in 294 00:23:03,319 --> 00:23:08,160 Shanghai, but the grand great uncles in Singapore. Therefore we can do business 295 00:23:08,240 --> 00:23:15,039 together, and China is particularly dependent as compared with Northern Europe and the United 296 00:23:15,079 --> 00:23:19,799 States, where we have a different structure, different more trustworthy government. Historically, 297 00:23:21,920 --> 00:23:27,640 China is particularly dependent on for its economic vitality on the extended family. 298 00:23:27,880 --> 00:23:32,359 Have I got that roughly correct? You? Not roughly? You put it 299 00:23:32,480 --> 00:23:38,160 perfectly? I mean that's absolutely perfect. Are perfect. It's social. It's 300 00:23:38,200 --> 00:23:44,000 been the social safety nap since before the time of Confucius. It's also been 301 00:23:44,079 --> 00:23:48,519 the economic springboard during good times because you can borrow money or get help from 302 00:23:48,599 --> 00:23:53,799 your extended family. And if you don't have an extended family, who you're 303 00:23:53,799 --> 00:23:57,440 going to call? And I'm sorry, one more question if I may, 304 00:23:57,440 --> 00:24:02,720 and over to Rob and James. I'm feeling greedy with you here, Nick, 305 00:24:03,200 --> 00:24:10,160 But the dramatic economic growth in China of the last three three and a 306 00:24:10,200 --> 00:24:15,640 half decades in which we've seen figures vary, but some hundreds of millions of 307 00:24:15,720 --> 00:24:19,440 people lifted out of really die or poverty. And that took place. This 308 00:24:19,599 --> 00:24:23,400 is a multiple choice question with only two choices. That took place. A 309 00:24:25,960 --> 00:24:33,440 because the Communist Party of China discovered a new form of government that would prompt 310 00:24:33,480 --> 00:24:41,079 and encourage and foster economic growth and the Communists did it or b because the 311 00:24:41,160 --> 00:24:47,279 Communist Party of China had the wits to get out of the way and permit 312 00:24:47,359 --> 00:24:53,480 the traditional Chinese extended families to get to work making use of the twentieth and 313 00:24:53,559 --> 00:24:57,680 early twenty first century technology. The government did it, or the government got 314 00:24:57,680 --> 00:25:00,480 out of the way. That's a tough one. How long do we ah 315 00:25:04,119 --> 00:25:07,839 can't stand it? Wants to jump in. There's a there's a trick. 316 00:25:07,119 --> 00:25:11,480 There's a that was a trick question because there they got the benefit of something 317 00:25:11,640 --> 00:25:18,079 that they had no right to profit from, which was an explosion in Kim 318 00:25:18,759 --> 00:25:26,680 that happened um kind of unbeknownst to anybody. Thanks to improvements and health before 319 00:25:26,839 --> 00:25:32,640 the one child policy kicked in, and you know, generations got smaller. 320 00:25:33,559 --> 00:25:40,039 China had a kin explosion after the death of Mao. Between like basically the 321 00:25:40,160 --> 00:25:45,079 death of Mao and about twenty ten, there was a proliferation of cousins, 322 00:25:45,279 --> 00:25:51,400 uncles, aunts, sibs. And this is because mortality stopped, because it's 323 00:25:51,400 --> 00:25:56,720 because mortality survival improved. So I mean so so they'd always had been born 324 00:25:56,799 --> 00:26:00,559 in the past, but now they got to live to a youth, middle 325 00:26:00,599 --> 00:26:07,200 age, old age, and one of the I think hugely we hadn't seen 326 00:26:07,279 --> 00:26:11,279 this. We stumbled on this ourselves doing this homework, But in retrospect it 327 00:26:11,359 --> 00:26:14,640 looks like one of the really important things, not just in China but in 328 00:26:14,720 --> 00:26:18,839 the rest of East Asia in the so called economic miracles, was the explosion 329 00:26:18,960 --> 00:26:22,359 of family ties. You know, there's just a lot more family to rely 330 00:26:22,559 --> 00:26:29,200 on, and that's been overlooked by almost all economists and sociologists who've looked at, 331 00:26:29,359 --> 00:26:33,319 you know, this fantastic economic rise. Hey, Nick, thanks for 332 00:26:33,440 --> 00:26:36,759 joining us. So if I could just talk about America for me, because 333 00:26:36,799 --> 00:26:44,240 it seems to me as how old I am that I remember certain optimism despite 334 00:26:44,240 --> 00:26:48,519 the fact that you know, a billion, bajillion years China has been a 335 00:26:48,599 --> 00:26:52,559 place where people buy things and not sell things. In fact, that's been 336 00:26:52,599 --> 00:26:57,640 the conflict with China since the beginning, Right, they wouldn't buy anything we 337 00:26:57,720 --> 00:27:03,720 had, so we made them buy um. And then with Russia, we 338 00:27:03,839 --> 00:27:07,400 thought when so unique collapse, you thought, well, they've tried everything else, 339 00:27:08,119 --> 00:27:11,400 so maybe they'll actually have a democracy. You don't be wobbly one with 340 00:27:11,440 --> 00:27:18,400 they'll have one. Well we learned the lesson there and the two kind of 341 00:27:18,480 --> 00:27:25,519 optimistic American maybe now naive seeming naive theories were one, trade engagement, economic 342 00:27:25,599 --> 00:27:30,680 engagement is gonna solve China's problems. Like China's They're gonna figure there. They 343 00:27:30,720 --> 00:27:33,359 want to make money, They're gonna they're going to figure it out. They're 344 00:27:33,359 --> 00:27:37,079 not going to be a trouble in our They're friendly. This is the friendly 345 00:27:37,319 --> 00:27:41,880 despot, right, I mean, you know, we even created Panda, 346 00:27:41,960 --> 00:27:45,599 you know, the whole panda. We people thought of China as an interesting 347 00:27:45,680 --> 00:27:48,759 place the way they would never have thought, they would never have said going 348 00:27:48,880 --> 00:27:52,400 to you know, some kind of despotic dictatorship was just had the same kind 349 00:27:52,400 --> 00:27:57,440 of benign benefit. And people sort of expected that Russia, having tried everything 350 00:27:57,480 --> 00:28:02,720 else, it's kind of like into a European groove of some kind of you 351 00:28:02,799 --> 00:28:07,480 know, messy parliamentary whatever with the you know, but it'd be all great. 352 00:28:07,640 --> 00:28:11,799 You know, this is an incredibly crude character. But the end of 353 00:28:11,920 --> 00:28:15,400 history, right that we could see the future, and the future was going 354 00:28:15,440 --> 00:28:18,440 to be pretty good. So now we have at this cross roads. We 355 00:28:18,519 --> 00:28:22,799 have we have the very strange thing where the China and Russia of agreeing not 356 00:28:22,880 --> 00:28:26,200 a Greek so much was the president, she goes to Moscow. He kind 357 00:28:26,200 --> 00:28:30,160 of fleeces Putin, who needs him desperately. Putin gives away the store, 358 00:28:30,240 --> 00:28:37,319 including an enormous amount of of of Chinese autonomy in a region that the Chinese 359 00:28:37,319 --> 00:28:40,240 and Russian has been fighting about for a thousand years, which is, you 360 00:28:40,319 --> 00:28:45,519 know, the far eastern part of Russia. But it looks like they're making, 361 00:28:45,200 --> 00:28:52,759 um, they're making separate deals, and they kind of think the two 362 00:28:52,839 --> 00:28:57,079 of us can make a go of this. So what are we left with? 363 00:28:57,279 --> 00:29:02,519 As Americans are to say, well, you know what, turns out 364 00:29:03,279 --> 00:29:11,599 capitalism isn't such a great solution, after all, free trade isn't such a 365 00:29:11,680 --> 00:29:17,359 great solution. After all, Maybe a little economic isolationism would be useful. 366 00:29:17,400 --> 00:29:22,519 I mean, is that what's what do we do now that the old Chivalists 367 00:29:22,799 --> 00:29:26,240 are I think disproved? Well, well, Rob, First of all, 368 00:29:26,319 --> 00:29:30,079 what we're left with is we're left with all of the good parts of the 369 00:29:30,160 --> 00:29:33,640 world. I mean, this is like point, This is like Losers Club, 370 00:29:33,920 --> 00:29:37,799 And you know, I know which team I want to be on. 371 00:29:37,960 --> 00:29:40,599 Boy, if I take a look at the if I take a look at 372 00:29:40,640 --> 00:29:44,799 the human resources there, I mean, the idea that this is going to 373 00:29:44,960 --> 00:29:48,640 displace the US or the West is kind of it's kind of a laugh riot. 374 00:29:48,839 --> 00:29:55,799 I mean, my my friend and colleague at American Enterprise Institute, the 375 00:29:56,000 --> 00:30:02,279 always prescient Derek Scissors China Economy X, about fifteen years ago, did a 376 00:30:02,480 --> 00:30:08,279 very detailed calculation to figure out the exact date when China surpasses the United States 377 00:30:08,400 --> 00:30:15,799 economy, and the date is never right. So we're now seeing the We're 378 00:30:15,839 --> 00:30:21,359 now seeing kind of what peak China and declining Russia look like. They can 379 00:30:21,400 --> 00:30:26,519 be very very, very unpleasant and dangerous even though they're not going to surpass 380 00:30:26,640 --> 00:30:33,319 US. I have a sick fascination with North Korea, whose GNP is zero. 381 00:30:33,039 --> 00:30:37,759 But North Korea can cause a lot of trouble with the zero GMP. 382 00:30:37,039 --> 00:30:41,960 So countries with real gmps, if their revision estates, can be a lot 383 00:30:41,039 --> 00:30:51,559 of trouble. What we what we ought to have learned during the in retrospect 384 00:30:51,880 --> 00:30:56,920 embarrassing post Cold War era, this you know, kind of sleepwalker, you 385 00:30:57,000 --> 00:31:04,559 know, dreamland three lost decades of strategic thinking. Is that our our bet 386 00:31:06,039 --> 00:31:11,920 on China, which was not unreasonable in the seventies and early eighties, didn't 387 00:31:11,960 --> 00:31:15,759 pan out. You know, we didn't we thought that really we could not 388 00:31:15,920 --> 00:31:22,559 just enrich China but liberalize the CCP and get a friend, you know. 389 00:31:22,000 --> 00:31:27,400 And we've been way too slow to wake up to this, in part because 390 00:31:27,519 --> 00:31:32,759 we've got a new threat that we didn't have from the Soviet Union, which 391 00:31:32,920 --> 00:31:37,480 is all of the vulnerabilities that have been created by economic integration into our economy 392 00:31:38,079 --> 00:31:44,559 with a power run by the economy run by the CCP, so the CCP 393 00:31:44,759 --> 00:31:49,279 can attempt to manipulate the United States from inside in a way that the Soaves 394 00:31:49,440 --> 00:31:53,920 never could have done because they were a nothing burger an international trade So what 395 00:31:55,039 --> 00:32:00,680 you mean is TikTok, TikTok's look at the NBA, ye, look at 396 00:32:00,720 --> 00:32:06,000 Disney. This is just in the cultural can be part of the you know, 397 00:32:06,079 --> 00:32:10,039 part of the discussion. You're groveling to the CCP about this stuff and 398 00:32:10,279 --> 00:32:15,799 complaining about scientists, but at the same time doing it ever President she tells 399 00:32:15,839 --> 00:32:22,039 them to do. That isn't exactly the preemptively negotiating against themselves to try to 400 00:32:22,680 --> 00:32:27,359 pretty favored. I mean, I think it's called cow talent. Yeah, 401 00:32:27,799 --> 00:32:31,039 okay, So speaking of cow talent, which I believe is is it a 402 00:32:31,240 --> 00:32:35,799 I think it's a Hindu word or maybe that brings me to another. So 403 00:32:35,880 --> 00:32:38,960 put on our Kissinger hat. You know, big strategy, big things right. 404 00:32:39,720 --> 00:32:44,799 UM's often wrong, but it's I am given to it. But never 405 00:32:44,920 --> 00:32:49,279 less than interesting, never less than interesting. It feels to me like there 406 00:32:49,400 --> 00:32:57,960 is one big, giant country that's an economic engine, a total mess, 407 00:32:58,319 --> 00:33:02,880 the world's most populous quase democracy, India, and it is once again a 408 00:33:04,000 --> 00:33:10,200 race to see who what side they're going to be on, because if they 409 00:33:10,359 --> 00:33:15,319 decide, you know what, actually, you know our traditional allegiance, you 410 00:33:15,400 --> 00:33:21,440 know, the traditional certainly since independence to their neighbor to the north in Russia. 411 00:33:22,359 --> 00:33:25,279 Um, how important is it now for us to say, all right, 412 00:33:25,400 --> 00:33:34,880 it's the West and the democracies plus India? Are they should we we 413 00:33:35,000 --> 00:33:36,960 be looking at that? I guess is what trying to say? Is that 414 00:33:37,119 --> 00:33:40,480 would that be the Kissinger strategy? Oh? I think absolutely. We want 415 00:33:40,559 --> 00:33:47,000 to find as much as much friendship with India as we can get away with. 416 00:33:47,599 --> 00:33:50,920 Hey, nick, I'm the one who asked the good questions. Well, 417 00:33:51,079 --> 00:33:53,119 don't don't give him, don't give him a cold star. You know 418 00:33:53,839 --> 00:33:58,440 what, what do they say? There's something about silvereign gold, you know, 419 00:33:58,599 --> 00:34:00,400 find the new ones keep the old, Yeah, exactly. And our 420 00:34:00,480 --> 00:34:05,759 oies really are old. I mean they're kind of like declining and you know, 421 00:34:05,880 --> 00:34:10,280 declining in uh in terms of headcount and getting very old. They need 422 00:34:10,400 --> 00:34:14,960 more from us than they did in the past. Because of that, we 423 00:34:15,079 --> 00:34:19,880 should be on the I mean, America's got talent should also be in international 424 00:34:20,000 --> 00:34:23,760 relations, right, we should be looking for new friends Vietnam, India. 425 00:34:24,760 --> 00:34:30,840 I have the crazy idea that after the current unpleasantness in Tehran, we may 426 00:34:30,960 --> 00:34:36,280 have an alliance with the Iran and the future. What say that again? 427 00:34:36,639 --> 00:34:40,320 Just repeat those very same words. What I have this? I have this 428 00:34:40,440 --> 00:34:46,079 funny idea that after we get over the temporary unpleasantness with Tehran that we've had 429 00:34:46,159 --> 00:34:52,199 since seventy nine, that we may have a we may have a beautiful friendship 430 00:34:52,280 --> 00:34:55,079 in the future with Iran when they get a new government. Yeah right, 431 00:34:55,360 --> 00:35:01,320 oh, until change money, a tiny change in management. First about brick 432 00:35:01,400 --> 00:35:06,880 wise, we're casting about for others. What about Brazil? Often, as 433 00:35:07,400 --> 00:35:09,559 the saying goes, the greatest country that never was, always on the edge 434 00:35:09,599 --> 00:35:15,239 of its potential, never reaching it. But there's hope, isn't there? 435 00:35:15,840 --> 00:35:22,679 Brazil? Brazil could be a helpful friend I even within Brazil. I've got 436 00:35:22,760 --> 00:35:27,880 a kind of a fixation with Mexico. And I know this is unfashionable, 437 00:35:28,320 --> 00:35:32,239 but I do the arithmetic. If you have never been held back by fashion, 438 00:35:32,400 --> 00:35:36,880 nick, never in your law of glorious career, well go ahead, 439 00:35:36,960 --> 00:35:39,960 let's hear it. Okay, if you do the numbers on Canada, Mexico, 440 00:35:40,400 --> 00:35:45,880 and the US of A. In terms of talent, you know, 441 00:35:46,360 --> 00:35:51,320 Mexico's got a lot of political master to clean up. Maybe it never will, 442 00:35:51,800 --> 00:35:58,960 but in terms of the royal talent, there's more educated, skilled workforce 443 00:35:59,360 --> 00:36:02,760 in let's call it naftaland and then there is in Europe than there is in 444 00:36:02,960 --> 00:36:07,880 China than there is in India any other part of the world. And our 445 00:36:10,280 --> 00:36:15,320 let's not call it Fortress America, but our North American thing could turn out 446 00:36:15,440 --> 00:36:22,000 to be the best thing that we've ever had. Wow, this is great, 447 00:36:22,119 --> 00:36:27,480 so fantastically counterintuitive, which I like. But I guess what I'm more. 448 00:36:27,599 --> 00:36:31,199 I mean, here's my concern. Yeah, that all sounds kind of 449 00:36:31,239 --> 00:36:36,079 fine, It all sounds going to work out. And I can remember going 450 00:36:36,159 --> 00:36:37,639 to conference. I can remember I think I gave a speech once. I 451 00:36:37,960 --> 00:36:46,079 wrote something once about how everybody's right, the brick countries Brazil, Russia, 452 00:36:46,280 --> 00:36:54,440 India, China are going to drive innovation and prosperity and productivity in the early 453 00:36:54,480 --> 00:36:59,239 twenty first century, and all those those four countries are going to have this 454 00:36:59,320 --> 00:37:04,320 wonderful flooring. And none of that happened. I mean, even in India, 455 00:37:04,400 --> 00:37:07,000 which is you know, a lot more the most stable of those countries, 456 00:37:07,039 --> 00:37:09,280 it's still kind of a yeah, it's it's it's it's got something. 457 00:37:10,960 --> 00:37:15,079 Yeah. Right, So I'm make a note of that everybody. By the 458 00:37:15,159 --> 00:37:22,039 way, the moment rob formally announces a worldwide trend, it evaporates. Oh 459 00:37:22,159 --> 00:37:30,360 my god, it's I'm the worst concern is that, um is that here's 460 00:37:30,360 --> 00:37:31,920 my concern. My concern is that there's an American attitude, I should say 461 00:37:31,920 --> 00:37:37,000 my attitude, which is that there's a natural law that states that things will 462 00:37:37,159 --> 00:37:43,679 kind of get better and that they'll get better with you know, economic exchange 463 00:37:43,760 --> 00:37:46,880 and slow incremental movements to democracy. Not perfect, but it's going to get 464 00:37:46,920 --> 00:37:52,639 better. It happens automatically. But I am now, I'm old enough to 465 00:37:52,719 --> 00:37:58,280 realize that nothing happens automatically. Uh, things happened because and so if we're 466 00:37:58,280 --> 00:38:01,199 going to create the North American economic fortress, which I like. Well, 467 00:38:01,239 --> 00:38:07,800 we're going to create a kind of a global idea to fight the newly emerging 468 00:38:07,000 --> 00:38:13,320 unity between Russia and China, which is like China's the big brother, clearly 469 00:38:13,400 --> 00:38:16,519 the big brother, clearly pulling the strings. What do we have to do? 470 00:38:17,920 --> 00:38:21,079 Like, what do we get at? What do we do? That's 471 00:38:21,159 --> 00:38:23,440 not going to be automatic, that's not going to be reading an essay in 472 00:38:23,480 --> 00:38:28,159 Foreign policy telling us it's going to happen automatically. Well, we have to 473 00:38:28,360 --> 00:38:32,400 start by waking up from our post Cold War era dream world. We would 474 00:38:32,400 --> 00:38:37,440 have thought that the invasion of Ukraine would have been enough for that, but 475 00:38:37,639 --> 00:38:43,280 it apparently it's only you know, we want to stay asleep. We've had 476 00:38:43,320 --> 00:38:50,920 a we had this extraordinary and completely aberrant generation when there was such a surfeit 477 00:38:51,079 --> 00:38:57,039 of American power that we could be feckless at home and feckless internationally, and 478 00:38:57,159 --> 00:39:00,760 it didn't seem to we have so much wealth and so much power away and 479 00:39:01,440 --> 00:39:06,400 think, well, you know that isn't going to last forever, and uh, 480 00:39:07,119 --> 00:39:12,719 sooner or later, there's going to be a call for grown ups, 481 00:39:13,039 --> 00:39:15,360 and um, you know, it would be nice to have a couple of 482 00:39:15,440 --> 00:39:20,280 them around. You know, you take a look at people like the late 483 00:39:20,360 --> 00:39:24,519 great George schultzm you had out at Hoover. I mean, where where's the 484 00:39:24,599 --> 00:39:28,679 next one of those guys going to come from? We need them, we 485 00:39:28,800 --> 00:39:32,360 need grown ups. Hey, Nick May, I here's my closing question for 486 00:39:34,119 --> 00:39:37,039 now. You have such a fascinating mind, however, that I intend to 487 00:39:37,119 --> 00:39:40,599 go after you again and again and again. Nick and I did a show 488 00:39:40,679 --> 00:39:46,760 an uncommon knowledge on what to anybody other than Nick the opening your opening position, 489 00:39:47,159 --> 00:39:51,880 naturally enough, would be the demographics is the biggest bore you could possibly 490 00:39:51,920 --> 00:39:55,239 imagine. I did a show with Nick on demographics which has been viewed something 491 00:39:55,360 --> 00:40:00,760 like four and a half million times because Nick makes Nick may things interesting. 492 00:40:00,880 --> 00:40:06,639 Okay, here's what I am responding to your tone, and I want to 493 00:40:06,719 --> 00:40:12,960 make sure that I'm hearing it right. Here's the case for pessimism. The 494 00:40:13,079 --> 00:40:16,639 two leading candidates for president of the United States, one is demented and the 495 00:40:16,719 --> 00:40:24,880 other is nuts, and they're both old. The banking system, the FED 496 00:40:25,400 --> 00:40:30,840 has injected so much liquidity into the economy since two thousand and eight. Let's 497 00:40:30,880 --> 00:40:35,800 be honest, they have no idea how to wind this down without risking bank 498 00:40:35,920 --> 00:40:40,320 failures, widespread systemic failures out here. When SVB went down last week, 499 00:40:40,519 --> 00:40:45,920 I guess it was two weeks ago. Now you'd think Silicon Valley would be 500 00:40:45,119 --> 00:40:49,000 there's so much wealth. Do you think they'd be insulated from that old fashioned 501 00:40:49,039 --> 00:40:55,719 word. Panic? People were really scared, really scared. Okay, polarization 502 00:40:55,840 --> 00:41:02,639 in Congress, decay of the American family, test scores going down. And 503 00:41:02,880 --> 00:41:08,199 now we look at Ukraine and World Cold War two has begun. Ukraine is 504 00:41:08,239 --> 00:41:14,360 our proxy. China is using Russia as its proxy. The Chinese are tough, 505 00:41:14,480 --> 00:41:17,960 they're smart, They're willing to use artificial intelligence to monitor their people in 506 00:41:19,039 --> 00:41:22,840 a way that the KGB could never even have dreamt of. Things are really 507 00:41:22,960 --> 00:41:27,039 looking bad. You mentioned Mexico. Oh, for goodness sake, you've got 508 00:41:27,440 --> 00:41:32,559 Amlo Lopez Obrado, the current president, who is dismantling the one non corrupt 509 00:41:32,639 --> 00:41:38,079 institution in Mexico, which was the election Bureau. I've heard arguments that the 510 00:41:38,239 --> 00:41:42,280 Mexican Navy is also non corrupt, but because it spends most of its time 511 00:41:42,559 --> 00:41:46,760 at sea. But there he is dismantling the one non corrupt piece of Mexico. 512 00:41:47,800 --> 00:41:53,360 Things are terrible and we're losing, And then Nick Eberstadt comes on and 513 00:41:53,440 --> 00:41:57,960 says, well, you know, I can't have a soft spot from Mexico. 514 00:41:58,519 --> 00:42:01,280 Well, you know China ship the idea that they could take us. 515 00:42:01,519 --> 00:42:07,199 Are you serious? Do you You really are pretty cheerful about the prospects. 516 00:42:07,320 --> 00:42:14,559 Is that correct? We can always screw it up. I mean sometimes we're 517 00:42:14,599 --> 00:42:17,480 good at that. But we have so many cards in our hands. We 518 00:42:17,599 --> 00:42:23,719 don't understand how much advantage we have some of our adversaries do I mean we 519 00:42:23,840 --> 00:42:30,159 have. We are living through a very curious time. We've had three decades, 520 00:42:30,639 --> 00:42:36,159 a long spate of I think what in retrospect will be seen as sub 521 00:42:36,480 --> 00:42:42,239 par political leadership, both red and blue. I don't know why it's been 522 00:42:42,400 --> 00:42:46,920 so poor at the last three decades. Somebody will explain it. Sometime. 523 00:42:47,760 --> 00:42:54,000 With a little bit of leadership in the United States, things would look real 524 00:42:54,119 --> 00:42:59,480 different, just the way they look real different when we went from nineteen seventy 525 00:42:59,559 --> 00:43:06,880 nine nineteen eighty three. This is just I could kiss you. This is 526 00:43:07,039 --> 00:43:12,119 such a lovely way to go into the weekend. Nick. It's what I 527 00:43:12,199 --> 00:43:14,840 said, It is to easy, right. We just need you know. 528 00:43:15,480 --> 00:43:19,360 It's like it's like being just stop being Assume good leadership, right, right, 529 00:43:19,639 --> 00:43:23,440 right, assume a ladder. Yeah, you're right, You're absolutely right. 530 00:43:23,440 --> 00:43:25,719 A couple of weeks ago, I was sitting in a Mexican bar talking 531 00:43:25,760 --> 00:43:30,519 to a bunch of Canadians, and I could, within within my range of 532 00:43:30,599 --> 00:43:34,159 vision, we're four hundred people from India. Indian immigrants had come to America, 533 00:43:34,239 --> 00:43:37,920 and everybody was marinating in the same identical cultural broth, with its own 534 00:43:37,960 --> 00:43:40,480 differences and having a great time. So if it's possible in that Mexican resort, 535 00:43:40,679 --> 00:43:45,920 by God, we can make it happen on the international global stage or 536 00:43:45,960 --> 00:43:47,599 so. I'd like to think so much more to talk to you about, 537 00:43:47,599 --> 00:43:52,880 including the domestic ramifications of what our Labor Force Participation Act is, but that'll 538 00:43:52,920 --> 00:43:54,280 be the next time we talk to you, which we hope is soon. 539 00:43:57,119 --> 00:44:00,760 Thank Nick for force you. Well, then we're going to We're going to 540 00:44:00,840 --> 00:44:04,519 get you on the calendar right now, because it's great to talk to you. 541 00:44:04,599 --> 00:44:07,960 And also, as Peter notes heading into the weekend, the idea of 542 00:44:07,079 --> 00:44:12,440 carrying a kernel of optimism in one's breast as you flounced, is in a 543 00:44:12,559 --> 00:44:16,360 long time madness. We love it. Nicholas Eberstat thank you for joining us. 544 00:44:16,559 --> 00:44:21,920 The book Men Without Work and Russia's peacetime demographic crisis. Buy them, 545 00:44:22,119 --> 00:44:27,000 read them, learn doctor again, and say a load of the other genius 546 00:44:27,079 --> 00:44:30,599 under your roof missus Mary Everstet, I think to have lunch with her today. 547 00:44:30,639 --> 00:44:34,559 I'll pass. Please please, please do, please do all the best. 548 00:44:34,880 --> 00:44:36,800 Thank you, guys. Have a good weekend. Thank you, have 549 00:44:36,840 --> 00:44:42,320 a good weekend. And now it's rob long to tell you why Ricochet is 550 00:44:42,360 --> 00:44:45,400 not just some cyber thing, as they used to say. I love this. 551 00:44:45,119 --> 00:44:50,480 I bought a shirt on Amazon the other day and the color was cyber 552 00:44:50,639 --> 00:44:55,800 lime, which was really bright. I had seen cyber as an exciting intensifier 553 00:44:55,960 --> 00:44:59,360 used since the nineties, when it was one of those words that they just 554 00:44:59,400 --> 00:45:06,119 sprinkled up cyber cafe George Foreman's cyber grill, you know, because it had 555 00:45:06,119 --> 00:45:10,039 a little bondy blue plastic thing on it. But cybernetically, that is not 556 00:45:10,119 --> 00:45:14,400 the extent to which Ricochet is confined. No, yes, it operates in 557 00:45:14,440 --> 00:45:16,719 the real world. Right. Yeah, we are telling you to get out 558 00:45:16,760 --> 00:45:22,480 of the matrix and uh come and visit for real m The best. One 559 00:45:22,519 --> 00:45:24,719 of the best parts about being a member of brickichet is that you could come 560 00:45:24,760 --> 00:45:28,599 to meetups and they are fun, and we have some coming up, so 561 00:45:29,559 --> 00:45:31,519 just let you know. I think less than a month from now, three 562 00:45:31,559 --> 00:45:36,079 weeks from now, maybe three and a half weeks, New Orleans, New 563 00:45:36,239 --> 00:45:40,280 Orleans, it'll be the French Quarterfest. It's April fourteenth through the seventeenth. 564 00:45:42,239 --> 00:45:45,320 Um, come, I'm come and say hi. Well, there's a schedule 565 00:45:45,639 --> 00:45:49,360 on the site. Go find it. If you're not a member, please 566 00:45:49,440 --> 00:45:52,320 join and then come to New Orleans. French Quarterfests is really lots of fun 567 00:45:52,639 --> 00:45:55,119 New Orleans. This is a perfect, perfect time to come to visit New 568 00:45:55,239 --> 00:45:59,880 Orleans. It's warm, it's tropical. You feel like it's a summer all. 569 00:46:00,639 --> 00:46:02,199 Um, and I'll be there. I'm gonna be there, and I 570 00:46:02,559 --> 00:46:08,079 think I think others will be there. I think Charlie Cook's going to be 571 00:46:08,119 --> 00:46:10,360 there. I don't know. I can't if I can't commit to that, 572 00:46:10,400 --> 00:46:13,840 but I think he's gonna be there. He and I were like, uh, 573 00:46:13,920 --> 00:46:15,880 defecting back and forth. Try to figure out what it can be there. 574 00:46:15,920 --> 00:46:20,400 I'm fourteenth to the seventeenth. Sign up, get yourself there. Uh. 575 00:46:20,599 --> 00:46:22,760 Flicker is doing a meet up in on April twenty seconds. So a 576 00:46:22,840 --> 00:46:29,639 few days later in Stillwater, Minnesota, which is um, I don't know, 577 00:46:29,719 --> 00:46:34,400 up there somewhere or um, yeah, it's and then to the left 578 00:46:34,440 --> 00:46:36,719 of me at the moment, to the left of you, whateverything to the 579 00:46:36,800 --> 00:46:38,559 left of you, James um. And then of course uh in Winston, 580 00:46:38,599 --> 00:46:44,000 Salem that we're talking about one in Mitchell Lot so um come to those. 581 00:46:44,519 --> 00:46:47,639 But it's also possible they do not work for you in terms of location or 582 00:46:47,679 --> 00:46:54,119 timing. Here's the solution. Join Ricochet and have one. Just announced that 583 00:46:54,280 --> 00:47:00,199 you're going to have one, and you will find Ricochet members will be right 584 00:47:00,239 --> 00:47:05,920 there, ready to ready to meet up. So one of the best things 585 00:47:05,960 --> 00:47:09,239 about the Internet is that you get to meet people in real life, and 586 00:47:09,480 --> 00:47:15,360 that is one of the greatest parts of Ricochet as well. Winston always reminds 587 00:47:15,400 --> 00:47:20,199 me of the jingle you know, Winston tastes good like a cigarette should. 588 00:47:20,599 --> 00:47:22,400 And there was actually a debate, a national debate about the bad grammar. 589 00:47:22,440 --> 00:47:25,360 I'm trying to think of the last time we had a grammatical you know, 590 00:47:25,840 --> 00:47:30,840 a grammar related debate in this country about such things. That goes back to 591 00:47:30,880 --> 00:47:32,119 what I was saying before about how low we fallow. But you know, 592 00:47:32,599 --> 00:47:37,119 I always hope always green shoots all the rest. Even you have to look 593 00:47:37,159 --> 00:47:39,599 to other countries. The Dutch, of course, the Dutch Farmer Party, 594 00:47:39,599 --> 00:47:43,480 which does not want to have all their farms shut down for global warming, 595 00:47:44,840 --> 00:47:50,480 staged remarkable electoral victory. That's good many of France, and we're not sure 596 00:47:50,840 --> 00:47:53,480 how exactly are we supposed to think about France, gentlemen, because as little 597 00:47:53,480 --> 00:47:57,440 as possible as possible, a lot of people are saying, well, Macron 598 00:47:57,519 --> 00:48:00,639 has no choice. He's going to raise the retirement age. And I you 599 00:48:00,679 --> 00:48:02,119 know, those Frenchs who don't want to work in the first place are all 600 00:48:02,159 --> 00:48:06,880 getting upset about this. Envisioning just repeat what's going on. He's he's raising 601 00:48:06,920 --> 00:48:12,760 the retirement age from sixty two to sixty four, right and then and there 602 00:48:12,840 --> 00:48:16,239 in a country where it's already illegal to work more than forty hours. And 603 00:48:16,360 --> 00:48:23,360 the result of this rob riots, riots, garbage strikes, um, all 604 00:48:23,440 --> 00:48:29,840 what they called many festa up and down. It's like a national grev. 605 00:48:30,280 --> 00:48:31,920 Yeah, that's the great, that's what a strike is. A greb and 606 00:48:32,000 --> 00:48:36,840 greb because you have a grief. Um, I was in a shop once. 607 00:48:37,559 --> 00:48:38,679 This is a long time ago. Uh, this is kind of why 608 00:48:38,679 --> 00:48:43,559 I love the French Um, the sup dramatic. And there was a suddenly 609 00:48:43,599 --> 00:48:45,960 there was a many Festeschia students down the street, down the boulevard, and 610 00:48:46,119 --> 00:48:49,280 there was like loud and noisy, and so we kind of went into the 611 00:48:49,280 --> 00:48:52,559 shop and kind of like just like what them passed, and they passed their 612 00:48:52,599 --> 00:48:53,800 shouting things and everything, and I couldn't really see the signs. So I 613 00:48:53,840 --> 00:48:59,000 asked the lady, like, what is it, you know, pukua greb, 614 00:48:59,079 --> 00:49:01,679 you know, what's the reason. And she kind of shrugged that great 615 00:49:01,719 --> 00:49:04,920 GALLICX shrug and she's like, you know, the students, and she said, 616 00:49:04,960 --> 00:49:09,719 the French students are protesting because, of course, the for the uncertainty 617 00:49:09,760 --> 00:49:15,280 of the future. Like yeah, well that's the literally definition of the future. 618 00:49:16,559 --> 00:49:22,079 What how could you possibly satisfy an angry mob when their argument is we 619 00:49:22,679 --> 00:49:28,559 make the future more certain? Um. The interesting thing about France is and 620 00:49:28,760 --> 00:49:32,880 and French politics is that Um and Macrol may be wrong. I mean, 621 00:49:32,920 --> 00:49:37,800 he has passed this, this is already the this is French law. He 622 00:49:37,840 --> 00:49:39,920 can do that, he did it, Um, but his calculation is that 623 00:49:40,039 --> 00:49:46,360 France is still France and people liked to um. They like the screaming to 624 00:49:46,480 --> 00:49:52,199 happen after the change has occurred. The screaming and the yelling is very important 625 00:49:52,239 --> 00:49:59,119 part of French politics. So there was a study of a pole I read 626 00:49:59,199 --> 00:50:00,719 as a while ago, so may have changed, but well it was basically, 627 00:50:01,079 --> 00:50:05,079 you know, ninety five percent of all French people think, you know, 628 00:50:05,199 --> 00:50:07,679 obviously we're gonna have to raise the retirement age. There's like math, 629 00:50:07,760 --> 00:50:12,639 you know, they're good at math, there they they they're they're the high 630 00:50:12,679 --> 00:50:17,239 school baccalaureate is actually very very good at math. But not now, that 631 00:50:17,440 --> 00:50:22,239 was their argument. But not now. So percent of people think they're gonna 632 00:50:22,239 --> 00:50:25,039 have to raise the retirement age. Nine percent people like but not now. 633 00:50:25,760 --> 00:50:31,079 Um, and that cross figuring that you'll do it. They'll protest, they'll 634 00:50:31,079 --> 00:50:34,400 be garbage in the streets of Paris for the next you know, a week 635 00:50:34,519 --> 00:50:38,480 or two, and then you know everybody will just say yeah, GaX, 636 00:50:38,519 --> 00:50:43,760 shrug, and that's it's done now. Um. It's a very Unamerican attitude, 637 00:50:43,840 --> 00:50:46,199 right. The Americans like to argue and fuss and fight and complain and 638 00:50:46,599 --> 00:50:52,800 bitterly debate before they actually enact legislation. In France, they do it, 639 00:50:52,920 --> 00:50:55,159 you know what, because when they know something's inevitable, that doesn't mean they're 640 00:50:55,159 --> 00:50:59,519 going to be happy about it. So that's against the curious thing too that 641 00:51:00,039 --> 00:51:01,800 we hear all the time about the Arab street. We have to worry about 642 00:51:01,800 --> 00:51:07,000 the Arab street when in fact, the only country in which politics really truly 643 00:51:07,079 --> 00:51:12,599 do take place in the street it's friends. Yeah, right, since seventeen 644 00:51:12,679 --> 00:51:16,280 eighty nine the street has actually mattered. But also remember I think that you 645 00:51:16,360 --> 00:51:20,360 know, the Dutch farmer thing is true about the French farmer thing too, 646 00:51:20,719 --> 00:51:25,719 that these are countries that have a very, very emotionally you know, I'm 647 00:51:25,840 --> 00:51:36,199 a hugely emotionally deep identification with farms and farming and even if it you kind 648 00:51:36,199 --> 00:51:38,159 of roll your eyes at it a little bit, it's certially part of the 649 00:51:38,239 --> 00:51:42,679 national identity. And they don't want these farms to go. And it's yeah, 650 00:51:42,719 --> 00:51:45,559 the fronsport founder in the Holland and they don't, they don't. All 651 00:51:45,639 --> 00:51:49,000 of that reclaimed land is where they grow the tulips, in the potatoes and 652 00:51:49,079 --> 00:51:55,079 the stuff. Right, it's really important. And when you I think what 653 00:51:55,199 --> 00:52:00,559 happens is when you sort of start to especially for agricultural rule. When you 654 00:52:00,679 --> 00:52:06,440 start to outsource that to Brussels, to the EU, they're gonna be there's 655 00:52:06,440 --> 00:52:07,519 gonna be trouble. There really is going to be trouble. I mean, 656 00:52:07,599 --> 00:52:12,079 all of the global warming, all the climate change stuff is coming from Brussels, 657 00:52:12,679 --> 00:52:16,760 and there's you know, I mean, they may meekly acquiesced, but 658 00:52:17,760 --> 00:52:24,719 there is. Whatever happens in Ukraine, it will be. We're hearing a 659 00:52:24,760 --> 00:52:28,480 lot about well, the thing to do about Ukraine is making a member of 660 00:52:28,519 --> 00:52:32,920 the EU. It will take years and years of negotiations before Ukraine is ever 661 00:52:34,000 --> 00:52:39,440 permitted to join the EU for precisely that reason. Ukraine is an enormous agricultural 662 00:52:39,559 --> 00:52:45,400 country. If they let it inside the EU, it places pressure on French 663 00:52:45,480 --> 00:52:50,719 farmers and on farmers, and the farmers are one of the most powerful interest 664 00:52:50,800 --> 00:52:54,639 groups in the European Union political structure. Anyway, just a little observation there, 665 00:52:58,960 --> 00:53:04,239 we've numbed Jane. It's interesting though, how this appears domestically. I've 666 00:53:04,280 --> 00:53:06,800 seen a lot of people who are looking at what's going on in France on 667 00:53:06,840 --> 00:53:10,840 the right and saying, finally the people are standing up to their wef masters. 668 00:53:12,159 --> 00:53:14,679 I hear that a lot, and they're cheering them on as though they 669 00:53:14,760 --> 00:53:19,119 think that the end result of this is somehow Macron slumps out in shame and 670 00:53:19,519 --> 00:53:22,199 a new government of the people is installed, which worked out there to the 671 00:53:22,440 --> 00:53:27,599 left of oh well, for France in seventeen eighty nine. And then you 672 00:53:27,719 --> 00:53:30,320 have the people on the left who are cheering this on because anything that sort 673 00:53:30,360 --> 00:53:32,559 of results in street fires and people protesting and the rest of it is automatically 674 00:53:32,599 --> 00:53:37,280 good if it happens in Europe by the right people. Now, if they 675 00:53:37,320 --> 00:53:44,320 were agitating for lesser government or for some social or cultural or ethnic thing that 676 00:53:44,400 --> 00:53:45,599 the left did not approve, this would be fascism, of course, and 677 00:53:45,639 --> 00:53:49,719 we'd be very worried about it. But they're not. So what's funny is 678 00:53:49,760 --> 00:53:52,679 the idea somehow that the youth in France at the age of twenty twenty two, 679 00:53:52,760 --> 00:53:55,760 the ones that Rob was referring to, will go and burn things on 680 00:53:55,840 --> 00:53:59,400 behalf of six two year olds who might have to work a little bit more. 681 00:54:00,559 --> 00:54:06,679 I find that a remarkable piece of cross generational solidarity. Or they just 682 00:54:06,880 --> 00:54:09,199 like the fun of destroying things, and I think it's probably the latter of 683 00:54:09,320 --> 00:54:15,039 just getting out and starting the fires and and and participating in a long standing 684 00:54:15,119 --> 00:54:17,440 French tradition. Why as Rob I'm sure knows, and Peter too. It's 685 00:54:17,440 --> 00:54:22,000 interesting to walk in some old areas of Paris and there's a bullet hole right 686 00:54:22,079 --> 00:54:25,679 there from eighteen forty eight you can put your finger through because you know the 687 00:54:25,719 --> 00:54:30,800 commune got here and had a beef about this et et. So yeah, 688 00:54:30,039 --> 00:54:34,840 it's Rob's right. It'll burn over and the change will be made and people 689 00:54:34,880 --> 00:54:39,880 will continue to It's a remarkable I will end with this. If I were 690 00:54:39,880 --> 00:54:44,519 a French, i'd be retired by now. I can't possibly imagine what I 691 00:54:44,559 --> 00:54:45,800 would do with my well, I mean I know what i'd do. I 692 00:54:45,840 --> 00:54:50,400 would continue to write. I would continue to do what I do now. 693 00:54:50,480 --> 00:54:53,159 I just wouldn't be paid for it. I wouldn't have a place to go. 694 00:54:53,440 --> 00:54:59,280 I would It's bad to identify as your job because then you end up 695 00:54:59,280 --> 00:55:00,679 at the end of your life stripped of your identity and you become a bit 696 00:55:00,800 --> 00:55:04,719 useless. My father lived at the age of ninety three because he was still 697 00:55:04,760 --> 00:55:07,199 involved in the business that he built. And for some people it's good to 698 00:55:07,320 --> 00:55:09,800 hang it up and do the things that you want to do. But the 699 00:55:09,960 --> 00:55:15,199 idea somehow that I would be lesser in my life, would be less happy 700 00:55:15,320 --> 00:55:22,679 if I were retired boggles the mind. And the people who in France who 701 00:55:22,079 --> 00:55:24,320 want, you know, what are they doing? Are these people in the 702 00:55:24,360 --> 00:55:28,239 civil service who want to shuffle this off as quickly as possible so they can 703 00:55:28,280 --> 00:55:30,920 just sit in the cafe and smoke the goalas and the rest of it. 704 00:55:30,000 --> 00:55:36,960 I don't know, but I'm happy that I'm permitted to do what I do 705 00:55:37,119 --> 00:55:40,719 for as long as I do. Right now, I think in our office 706 00:55:40,920 --> 00:55:45,480 is a monument to a columnist who died at about the age of one hundred, 707 00:55:47,039 --> 00:55:51,639 and he was putting it out until the day now, right towards the 708 00:55:51,800 --> 00:55:53,360 end, when he had to do a radio interview, they would walk him 709 00:55:53,360 --> 00:55:58,039 downstairs, they'd take him around the corner, they'd turn him around, and 710 00:55:58,079 --> 00:56:00,480 they'd give him a little push in the direction of the radio station, and 711 00:56:00,559 --> 00:56:02,840 there would be somebody the other end of the block who would lead him, 712 00:56:04,360 --> 00:56:07,800 receive him, to receive him right, and there'd be somebody there to take 713 00:56:07,880 --> 00:56:13,800 him up and do the rest of it up right. Herb Kane, Herb 714 00:56:13,880 --> 00:56:16,599 Kane is that guy. Yes, Herberkane is that guy. I remember, 715 00:56:19,000 --> 00:56:22,400 Yes, he used to write about having his regular deliveries of vitamin V vitamin 716 00:56:22,519 --> 00:56:27,559 V for vodka deep into his nineties. And I remember Mark Stein once told 717 00:56:27,599 --> 00:56:30,880 me about an editorial meeting at the Telegraph in which they were talking about Princess 718 00:56:30,960 --> 00:56:36,159 Diana and the and the scandal, and at the far end of the table 719 00:56:36,280 --> 00:56:38,480 Bill Deeds, then in his nineties, spoke up and said, Wow, 720 00:56:39,000 --> 00:56:45,239 that's not quite the way the approach we took during the abdication crisis, right, 721 00:56:45,599 --> 00:56:49,239 So, James, when you get to retire, never, I never. 722 00:56:49,360 --> 00:56:52,360 I have absolutely no intention of retiring. I'm already one of the longest 723 00:56:52,440 --> 00:56:54,599 running By the way, I don't want to start a long conversation because we've 724 00:56:54,639 --> 00:56:59,119 been on for an hour. But don't you, guys, ancient as we 725 00:56:59,280 --> 00:57:02,800 are, don't you have the feeling that there are things that you're only just 726 00:57:04,000 --> 00:57:09,639 now figuring out, That there are aspects of your bit ways of approaching certain 727 00:57:09,719 --> 00:57:14,599 writing. I know Rob is taking on a new project, podcasting project. 728 00:57:15,400 --> 00:57:20,880 I feel as though there's still more to learn, and that I'm I'm only 729 00:57:20,960 --> 00:57:23,840 just now figuring certain things out. No, there's always more to learn. 730 00:57:24,000 --> 00:57:27,400 There's always there's never a day where you can't find out it's something new that 731 00:57:27,440 --> 00:57:30,360 you didn't know before. There's never a day that isn't benefited by taking one 732 00:57:30,519 --> 00:57:32,760 random factor or one picture from a newspaper or one little clip that you got 733 00:57:32,800 --> 00:57:37,679 from a nineteen fifty new magazine and exploring it and looking at it and going 734 00:57:37,719 --> 00:57:40,159 on Wikipedia and linking and linking until you're spiraling down that rabbit hole and you 735 00:57:40,280 --> 00:57:44,239 dump out at the other end of it and you realize, oh my gosh, 736 00:57:44,320 --> 00:57:47,400 the reason that the Burbank, the Burbank City Hall was designed by this 737 00:57:47,480 --> 00:57:51,400 guy who also did a series of other beautiful schools in California. And look 738 00:57:51,440 --> 00:57:53,360 at that one there, it's the Lou Hoover Elementary School. Who is Lou 739 00:57:53,480 --> 00:57:59,159 Hoover. Lou Hoover happened to be the wife of Herbert and Lou Hoover was 740 00:57:59,239 --> 00:58:01,320 the one who made it possible for the wife of the first black congressman to 741 00:58:01,400 --> 00:58:05,480 come to a t at the White House. And that was a big scandal. 742 00:58:05,559 --> 00:58:07,039 And look at this article here that was written about it in nineteen twenty 743 00:58:07,119 --> 00:58:13,480 nine by who, by James Kilgallan kill. James Kilgallen is wait a minute, 744 00:58:13,559 --> 00:58:15,880 is his daughter Dorothy his daughter is Dorothy. Let's type this on YouTube. 745 00:58:15,920 --> 00:58:20,039 Oh my gosh, there's a what's by line where they're all blindfolded and 746 00:58:20,119 --> 00:58:22,159 Dorothy kill Gallan is actually trying to figure out the identity of her father. 747 00:58:22,280 --> 00:58:25,920 It's tremendous. And there's Bennett Surf and my gosh, he says something too, 748 00:58:25,960 --> 00:58:29,400 And what a wonderful thing I just learned. I didn't know any of 749 00:58:29,480 --> 00:58:34,159 this before. The architect the meaning of the reliefs in the Burbank City Hall, 750 00:58:34,559 --> 00:58:37,719 the fact that the priest t scandal actually happened, how newspapers responded to 751 00:58:37,800 --> 00:58:42,480 it in nineteen twenty nine, which is fascinating because the sort of institutional racism 752 00:58:42,559 --> 00:58:45,360 you might expect is not evident in a lot of Southern papers. All of 753 00:58:45,440 --> 00:58:49,719 these things took about an hour and enhanced my day. Now when I write 754 00:58:49,760 --> 00:58:52,639 about them, I'll learned something new about the craft of writing, because I'm 755 00:58:52,679 --> 00:58:58,920 a big deal this year about getting rid rid of Semi Colon's period. Actor. 756 00:58:59,400 --> 00:59:02,360 As Victor Organ would say, this podcast was brought to you by youth 757 00:59:02,400 --> 00:59:06,320 Switch. Please support them for supporting us, and that's great. If you 758 00:59:06,360 --> 00:59:08,360 could leave a five star review on Apple podcast, that would be great. 759 00:59:09,519 --> 00:59:14,480 Which is the exclamation point. I think that Victor Borgan did's right reviews. 760 00:59:14,519 --> 00:59:17,000 I'll allow new listeners to discover us, and that helps keep this show going. 761 00:59:17,039 --> 00:59:20,440 If you're interested more in the t scandal, that the priests scandal, 762 00:59:20,559 --> 00:59:22,840 James Kilgallen and all that stuff, you will be able to find that next 763 00:59:22,880 --> 00:59:28,239 week at lilacs dot com on Thursday. But of course we'll see everybody in 764 00:59:28,280 --> 00:59:32,280 the comments at Ricochet four point and I say four point zero while I can 765 00:59:32,599 --> 00:59:43,239 next week, boys, next week, next week Ricochet, Join the conversation,