What is crack lacing Fellow thermonuclear a Efforts. I am Dana Valley coming at
you with a quick intro to tell you that this is part two of our
early NBA season Overreactions podcast. We did the West that went up on Friday.
This is the East. It's going up on Monday. As a note,
it was recorded after the first two days of NBA Action. The predictions
were still big picture, so it's not like we're necessarily getting into a ton
of game stuff and none of the predictions have changed. We also cap it
off by getting to your hot or not submissions. That was a lot of
fun at the end of it, so be sure to check this all out
before we get started. The usual reminder, I'll blow through it. If
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not or mailbag questions. When we'll fire that back up again and that is
actually it, so Grant and I, we're gonna get right into it.
And just as a reminder, these are you know, these are meant to
be on the Boulder side, not unreasonable, totally implausible, but they're probably
We're making predictions that you think have maybe a fifty to fifty chance of happening
at most. So it's a lot of fun. Go check out the West
episode as well. Listen to this episode, and that's enough for me.
Let's talk with Grant which team player you want to take us too? First?
Well, my tickes on the East won't be as hot, probably,
but I have several predictions. How about somebody on the Brooklyn Nets is going
to make an all defensive team? And this is kind of cheating because there
are so many options to choose from here for me, but I just think
between Bridges between Claxton, Finny Smith, and Royce O'Neill are probably just not
going to be notable enough to get those honors. But Ben Simmons might be
a sneaky one because he's done it more than once before. So I just
think, I guess the overarching thing is like there's a scenario where Brooklyn's defense
is just nasty like all the time, and so some one's gonna get rewarded
for that. And I think Clackson and Bridges both kind of have the profile
and the broader recognition to sneak onto one of these all defensive teams if if
if Brooklyn's defense overall winds up being as good as I think potentially it could
be, Jo those are your only two that you're considering. No, Ben
Simmons in that discussion, Ben Simmons is like my sneaky one like it because
I just can't. It would be a hot take to say Ben Simmons is
definitely gonna do something really good because I can't. I don't believe that yet.
And also Jack Vaughn sort of telegraphing how he's gonna spread the minutes around.
I don't know if you saw that. He said, no, one's
probably gonna log thirty minutes consistently because of the way that they want to play.
I'm assuming he meant everyone. It's at McHale Bridges who played thirty five
plus in the first game. But I think that's I'm wondering if that's not
hot enough. You should have went to Brooklyn nets. McHale and Nick Claxon
could. But I guess because McHale's shoulders is such a heavy offensive load.
There's a bowl in this there because his defense did sort of drop off a
little bit after the trade. All right, yeah, I'll try to be
you know what, I will tweak all these to try to be more unhinged
if possible. Well, so I have a nets one too. We'll stick
with the nets here. Cam Thomas will average twenty five plus points per thirty
six minutes. Now, before you say that's an overreaction, consider that Cam
Thomas averaged twenty two point nine points per thirty six minutes last year. Now,
before you say this isn't spicy enough, consider that the small sample size
of fewer than a thousand minutes favored him. And consider that the only players
since two thousand who have averaged twenty five plus points per thirty six minutes before
their age twenty three season are Luka, Doncic, Trey Young, Devin Booker,
Kevin Durant, Carmelo, Anthony, John Morant, Jason Tatum, Zion
Williamson, Brandon Ingram, Donovan, Mitchell d Low, Christops Lebron, Amari
Stotdomeyer, and Kobe Bryant. So the list is fairly a extensive, but
consider the the type of names on that list. But he's just gonna come
in and get up shots. And I mean, you know, he's not
gonna shoot seven to twelve on twos outside of the restrict area forever, but
he's gonna get a shots. I think I think it's possible he would he
be the most random player on that list. For you, or is it
like, oh, I could kind of see d Lo or Amari being that
that guy. No, once you got to d Lo, I was kind
of like, well, then Cam Johns'll, cam Thomas will definitely do it.
Ami were hyped up right at that age in a way that Cam Thomas
is not. I think Cam Thomas is just like he's so clearly just built
to score, like mentally fit, Like all he wants to do is get
buckets, and I mean he like, yeah, he the efficiency might not
be there like it was in Brooklyn's first game, but like I mean,
if I'm going to be critical, I think I think if he got twenty
what do you say, twenty two nine per thirty six last year, I
don't see a reason he can't get to twenty five. I think that's a
good that's a sufficiently uh bold prediction slash overreaction. I don't I like that
one a lot. That was a nice little brisk pace for Yeah, look
at that. Are we trying to be alphabetical? I guess not, since
we didn't start with Atlanta, I promise I had this take before the Chicago
Bulls had a play, the earliest players only meeting in the history of professional
sports. Can we you don't get to downplay that? No, it was
game one, Buddy, tell people did you see the quote? Basically like
Billy So for people that don't know, the Bulls got blown out in their
season opener by the thunder and Billy Donovan, head coach, goes into the
locker room, and the way the reporting phrased it was like the guy the
players seem to say something like can you give us a minute? And he's
like, cool, I'm not just slowly does the home the homer Simpson backs
into the hedge meme basically, uh, And there was a player's only meeting
after a game one and there's I've seen different you know reports. Maybe you
can enlighten me on the subject of it, but it seemed to be like
there's not enough passing, we don't have a pure point guard, like guys
are you know? It's just whatever it is if you're having a player's only
meeting after your season opener, like what is anyway? So, my my
overreaction is that Demarta Rosenen and Zach Lavine and Nikolovucevich will be traded this season.
The whole thing. The Bulls are going to trade all three of their
you know, best slash most expensive veterans. Who so I who is?
Where are they trading? Vouch the the deals like who I owe Memphis?
Hey, maybe I don't hate it. Yeah, Now that you'd have to
wait on until what December fifteenth or is a January fifteenth on them or him?
It should be December? Okay, So you know, well, here's
that coincides with I'm just gonna throw this. We'll have the discussion. I
predicted they were gonna blow it up by Christmas. Yeah, because and that's
bold in the sense that the Bulls just don't do that. They think that
they're they're they're habitually addicted to the bottom of the middle, right Apparently,
Well it's sort of like, I guess since the Wizards finally did it,
the Bulls are now the team we've complained about the longest for not doing a
hard reset because this this core is just like a five hundred corps if everything
goes well, and that's about it. So it is. I know it
is bold to say they're going to finally do the thing that they should have
done but have not done for what seems like forever. So yeah, I
think that December fifteenth deadline looms as the you know they gotta once they get
past that. I mean, you can move Levin today or DeRozan today.
But which I think might be one of the modest, one of the modest,
one of the most underrated. I combine most and underrated assets in the
league. Right now, when you look at the cap going up in his
deal, I understand that he can't be the best player on a Champ team.
Who fuck cares? Like, first of all, how many players?
Is that? Right? That? Well, so that's a great question,
like is I mean, certainly zach Lavine is I think if you get zach
Lavine at his current salary, you're it's it's not it's a positive value,
right, Like I think he's You're not saying zach Lavine is the type of
guy that you, well, now, we need somebody at like, you
know, cut rate salary to sort of make our books make sense. I
think zach Lavine is like properly paid. Is that that's not a hot take?
Right? He's gonna be worth over the next well, he might decline
his player option, but this season, in the next two seasons on his
deal, about thirty twenty nine to thirty percent of the projected cap. That's
fine. Yeah, that's okay. I think so do you think. I
mean, we've probably talked about this, maybe this time last year or maybe
before he signed. Like you get in two firsts, three firsts for him,
you know, like I was over under if we set the over under
two have first round picks or the equivalent, and they got to be real
ones, right, none and none of these Like this is the Knicks pick
via Washington, that's top forty three protected and over under two and a half.
You're on over. Yeah, I think I probably go over too,
especially if it's just like you're you know, the other salaries aren't anything crazy.
Yeah, he like exactly me. He's just a good and also like
he's further removed from the knee surgery he had last offseason, and he was
way better down the stretch last year than he was overall. Like his numbers
are somewhat misleading from last season because he just improved over the course of the
year, which makes sense considering he had his knee cut open and operated on.
So yeah, we're both we're both, uh, we're both bullish on
the Bulls being broken up. I think I also saw a report and I
did this is who who had it? I don't want to get the reporting
wrong, but oh so this is sham Sharania from The Athletic on FanDuel TV's
Run at Back show said that the two sides are apart on multiple fronts.
De Rosan and the Bulls including salary and terms. Those are all the fronts.
Yeah, I mean that just he's the one where it's like, okay,
if you had to bet even the you're betting on all three. But
if you had to take the over under of one point five of these players
getting traded or even just like I would throw Caruso in there. That's someone
who you should probably get rid of too. I think this is the year
they do it because they're forced to, and like they could do pretty well
because Caruso has value if you want to just for him, right, I
think? So? I think, And like, here's the big one.
Do you move Patrick Williams? So it's not an extension, right? I
think? Well that's I mean, what's the cost you to keep him around?
You got his cap hold. I think you probably hold on to him
unless you can get I don't know what you get for Patrick Williams is the
other thing. I don't know if you're definitely getting a huge like a return
that you just got to take, right because who like who views themselves as
one Patrick Williams away right or or like well, I guess the counter to
that is, you know, it's in some ways there should be more suitors
for Patrick Williams than there should be for someone like DeRozan because DeRozan's got to
go to a veteran led team that's trying to win now and may or may
not give a shit about re signing him. You are Chicago bull. That's
how this ends, right. But Williams, it's like, I don't know
if the Wizards wanted Patrick Williams to just like throw him into the rebuild,
like maybe maybe he has appeal there even though he's you're not going to give
up the teams that I guess he might make the most sense for in theory,
you're not going to give up stuff for and then if contenders give up
stuff for him, that stuff isn't going to be too flashy. So yeah,
that's a good point. Yeah no, I yeah, bulls are bulls
are getting busted up. Let's see, do you have another one or you
want me to I have, Well, do you want to go reverse alphabetically?
So let's let's talk about the Hawks, who did not have a player's
only meeting after they lost their first game, So they're gonna win the title.
Clearly, Trey Young will make second team All NBA. He has a
third team selection under his belt. I know they got rid of positions,
but this is the equivalent of me saying then that Trey Young will be one
of the top ten most impactful players in the league who also appears in the
equivalent of sixty two plus games. It's this is coming. I'm saying this,
this will go out. I'm probably gonna hold it for a few days,
but I'm saying this after he shot four of nineteen in Game one.
Here's my thing with him. He's still got fifteen free throw attempts and made
fourteen of them. He's still one of the best passers, just the best
love dribble passers. At the game. You need a bucket at the rim,
you need to set up a corner three pointer. And despite the issues
that I think many haven't, we both ourselves have some issues with his ball
dominance. One of the most lethal just off the dribble creators. When it
comes to the shots he could take. You look at his floater, ability
to pull up from mid range, just a three pointer in general, Yes,
you don't want to see him. You'll shoot from about the timeline with
seventeen seconds left on the shot clock. But he's one of the few guys
in the league where if I said, hey, they're gonna shoot that at
a thirty four percent clip for the year, you're probably okay. Dame Steph
Trey like, he's on that short that short list, and I trust that
the Hawks will figure it out spread. And look when you looked at their
shot profile last year and they're still just had this wildly elite offense, especially
towards the second half of the season with Quinn Schnyder. There's like real room
for growth there. And we can get into will he be used differently wellves
efficiency climb. I just feel like because of the defensive issues, which I
do, I no longer believe they matter. They're conspicuous, they're just not
as pronounced. The past two years, like he has been harder to screen.
He has had more possessions where it looks like he's giving active exertion on
the ball. It feels like it's all sure, it's the defensive stuff,
but it feels like it's all this behind the scenes stuff where his relationship with
first what was his first coach? That was Lloyd Pierce, right, am
I getting that wrong? And then you're going and then Nate McMillan. So
there's that stuff. There's the if enis with the players were frustrated behind the
scenes with him, John Collins has thrown some shade towards Atlanta. That stuff
all matters. But Trey Young is a star, and so I'm just gonna
say I'm gonna take the optimistic route after a pessimistic performance and say he gets
second team All NBA. Yeah, I think I would echo all that.
I think now is a good time to sort of buy in on Trey Young
because because of all the things you said, like the you know, the
the you don't you don't want to shout it, but you could whisper like
the coach killer I don't know label and it's not totally unwarranted. So far,
my mine is less hot take he although, like I guess so I
don't think so. Trey Young has led the NBA and assistant turnovers two years
running, and he's not gonna do that. And I think it's because he
will be used differently, and I think that will be a net positive for
him because the efficiency should go up, the off ball reps should go up,
because Quinn Snyder just, you know, you want to even great coaches,
you coach, you know to your talent. So if Trey Young is
just a great pick and roll orchestrator, you're not gonna just excize that from
you know, what you do on offense. But I think when I think
of Quinn Snyder, I think of the advantage basketball that Utah played, where
guys are getting it on the move and running around, and Trey Young is
I think gonna do more of that. I hope do more of that,
and I think it'll unlock kind of the best version of him because he'll be
a threat whether he has the ball or not, and so far in his
career he's just not been a threatening player off the ball and he'll just stand
around. I think that changes, and I think that triggers you know that
all NBA second team ceiling you're talking about where we go next. Trying to
find my most ridiculous thing here. How about this. The Detroit Pistons are
gonna win fewer games than anybody else in the NBA this year. Is that
bold? Well, I mean they're over runder is not the lowest. And
the Washington Wizards exist and gave up one hundred and forty three points to the
Pacers on opening night and figure to lose a lot of games in which they
gave up one hundred and forty. I think the Pacers offense is good and
fun, but like I think that's more Washington than anything else. So for
the Pistons to finish with the worst record they got, I mean, you
know, what's the usual suspects Like san Antonio, even though they have Wemby
and we've said a trillion great things about him, should be bad. Portland
should be bad. The Wizards are definitely gonna be bad. Houston. We
don't know who else is in Utah? Could Utah is probably a slight cut
above that Charlotte, although they won on opening night. I just think that
we're just they're one to know they might be. I mean, at this
point, we're talking about the fewest wins in the league being one to oh
like actually matters, because that could be you know, like five percent of
your season total, the more I look at the Pistons and see that they
are basically gonna have an inexperienced slash like semi experience but unproductive guard in like
on the floor all the time, all the time, and they're they're gonna
they got all these bigs that are still really young and or like James Wiseman
did not play in their first game at all, like the number two pick
just d MP, Sorry you can't. Williams his job on the line.
Now he's gonna be the highest paid coach of all time that I got.
Well, if that's the thing is, he's not going anywhere with that contract.
I just think the recipe for being really bad depends a lot on playing
inexperienced guards and between like Ivy Killian Hayes, Asar Thompson, Cunningham is a
different breathe like Cunningham is good. He had thirty Like he's just gonna be
good. But you're always gonna have someone out there with him that is as
liable to you know, do damage as they are to be helpful. So
I think the Pistons have a floor that is like terrifyingly low, which is
bad because they're like, what two years into this rebuild now, like this
is the year three of it, and they're just they're looking rough. Uh
they're over under his twenty eight and a half. By the way, that's
bad. That is not the worst in the league. So I guess,
I guess, Uh, I'm overreacting to how bad they look by saying they'll
have the worst record. So I was thinking won along the lines of Jay
and Ivy won't be on this team next season. Tame deal. Tell me
more. They're bringing them off the this that's not even my prediction, but
just they're bringing them off the bench. He plays seventeen minutes on opening it's
so early. They telegraph this is how they're gonna use him during the preseason.
But my god, that's weird, right, I mean, what does
it say. I understand staggering, but and to not even it's not even
about him not starting, it's the seventeen minutes. Yeah, an I think
that like there were like there are fourth quarter minutes that mattered, you know,
you know what I mean my actual prediction for the Pistons though, when
I shouldn't say necessarily that. Uh So I went back and watched every k
Cunningham offensive possession from that game. So I'm at the point where I'm gonna
predict that Kaig Cunningham averages twenty five points eight assists at least while shooting thirty
five percent or better from three. Ooh. Now, I feel like if
I have to set up why this is bold or an overreaction, it's because
Kate Cunningham is still super young. His three point shot has been rickety and
there's only one player who has ever hit that line before their age twenty three
season. It's Luka Doncic. I am here's the we can get to the
concern. So the volume is gonna be there, and that's why I'm comfortable
with the points in the assists. It's clear based off how he was used,
that they're not gonna sub out you know, Kid Cunningham leading transition,
taking balls off handoffs, running with ball screens in the half court. They're
not subbing that out for more Jade and Ivy or Asar Thompson or more Tillian
Hayes. And I know Montey Morris was dealing with the quad strain right now.
That's encouraging the shot. With Caid, it's always looked esthetic enough to
where you believe, okay, like it could come around. And I'm not
saying he's an issue four of nine every single night from three thirty five plus
percent or lead gaverage however you want to frame it. So thirty six I
think he gets there. In part he still looks comfortable, just kind of
casually dribbling into those pull ups in the half court. It's just he seems
a lot quicker off the catch, and so I'm just this is someone who
is shooting sub thirty three percent on spot up threes for his career. That
number is going up, way up, and so I almost feel like twenty
five eight on thirty five percent or better shooting them three isn't bold enough.
But you go back to history, that just doesn't happen. And maybe the
Pistons are just so bad that getting eight assists becomes untenable. But that's where
I'm att with k count like he is. I didn't predict him to win
Most Improved Player. I had him in my top three. That is someone
who I watched in Game one where if I was gonna change anything about my
ballot other than six Men of the Year because the Celtics hate us. I'm
just I'm looking at that going oh whoops, Yeah, yeah, all right,
I'm gonna jump all the way to the end of the alphabet because we
don't care about it. We both have wizards takes. That's gonna be fantastic.
I do. I do have a wizard's sake, and I'm i The
thing I wrote for for br I don't know last week was not was not
ridiculous enough. So I think Jordan Poole is going to lead the NBA in
total points and total turnovers this season. So to do that, he's gonna
have to play a lot, which he does. He played all eighty two
last year, seventy sixth the year before, so he's gonna get the playing
time. He only took eighteen shots in Washington's first game. You'll only but
Dan, that was in twenty six minutes. That's a lot of shots in
twenty six minutes. And he had four turnovers in twenty six minutes. I'm
not gonna do the math to extrapolate that out, but I feel pretty good
about my prediction. So, I mean, he's gonna have to average like
close to close to thirty a game, probably because there'll be guys over thirty
that don't play, you know, seventy five games or whatever. I believe
he can do it. I believe he has it in him. I don't
know what his field goal percentage is gonna be. I should have gone a
trifecta of like, you know, most turnover, most missshots, most points,
most turnovers or something, but that would have gotten too complicated. Do
you maybe that's not ridiculous enough or maybe that's not enough of an overreaction.
But I saw eighteen shots in twenty six minutes. I just like, this
guy is gonna chuck all year and he's gonna turn it over all year and
it's gonna be amazing. That's I mean, total points is bold because you're
banking on a certain level of availability and the fact that he actively furthers what
is eventually going to be a more egregious tank job where it's like, like
it would almost be bolder to say that Kyle Kuzma is on this team past
the trade then pot I'm trying to look up right now, who's what the
total team? But I guess he has so yeah, he had four turnovers
in twenty six minutes, so they get the turnovers will be there. I
was just wondering, is he gonna pass? Try passing enough, but his
he's advent. He doesn't have to pass that much. The adventures after Dribble
could help. So I have a pop. Well, I guess yours was
both positive and negative. Nice way to strike a balance there. Here's I'm
gonna run through the list again. I did this on the West Pod,
but since this is a different pod. Of the top who finished in the
top ten of Most Improved Player voting last year Larry market In, Shay Jylen
Brunson, McHale, Bridges, Nick Claxton, Tyres Albert, and Trey Murphy.
Dearon Fox and kvon Looney were tied at eighth. If you Care,
Austin Reeves was a tenth. Denny Avdya is going to crack the top ten,
and I say this. I went back and was watching everything Denny Avdya
did in game one. It was not much, and he started out more
aggressive than he finished. We're gonna get this is the year, We're gonna
get there. This is someone who sees the floor in transition. He looked
a little bit more aggressive attacking the basket again very early on. I know
that this is coming on the heels of them giving up eight trillion points to
the Pacers, but his defensive assignments and performance have always been tougher and better
than you think. I do question whether enough people, and I'll throw myself
in this included we'll see enough of the Wizards like live games, rather than
going back and watching possessions and doing film work to say, oh, Denny
Avia belongs here. Will the three point volume come up? Will the volume
in general be there? Because he took under ten shots? Again, this
is someone who has never averaged ten shots a game, never had a usage
rate grant of seventeen or higher. That is so Infantismal pj T loves it.
He's putting it together, and I think because the opportunity is going to
be there, and the opportunity will grow as the season goes on and Kyle
Kuzma joins another team. I think that's the only the reason that's a good
overreaction is because it is so hard, if you're a bit like a perimeter
defender, to continue to care for the full life length of a season when
nobody else on your team is defending and you're just you're down by fifteen five
minutes into every game. So I like that. I I feel like there's
certain guys that we're sort of aligned on and just like, please let this
be the year. And Avidia is just at the top of that list,
I think for for certainly for me, because I know we've harped on like
what an underrated perimeter defender he is, how he sort of like does the
quote unquote plays the right way thing? So I would be This also explains
why in a in one of our stat padding things you put Denny obvious contract
as your favorite of a group of three. So so now it's all adding
up for me. Two Wizards. Thoughts. Do you have some where would
you like to go next? Can I do something that might date by the
time I put this podcast up, but I'm gonna I might even leave it
in. It got to be wrong because I'm trying to manifest this to existence.
Jane Pardon will be traded somewhere other than the Clippers. Oh, now,
I want to be clear, I'm not basing this all off of the
Clippers walking away from the negotiating table doing that. I want to make this
clear. In late October is the equivalent of acquiring James Harden. There's no
guarantee it sticks from but there is we've already kind of seen it. Whereas
there's going to be a team, and it feels like the Clippers. We
didn't talk about them on the Overreactions Pod. I mean, they beat up
on the Blazers and Kuhi and Paul George. Look, I don't know what
to I don't know what else to say. There's a there's a higher probability
even though I look at the Clippers this way. Either they get off to
a great start and it should technically still increase their urgency to win just because
the window remains finite, or they start off slow and that still increases the
urgency because the window is so finite. But there's also that outside possibility they
start out so good they decide, hey, you know what, like,
we don't want to give up a small ranch them for an over thirty,
a star in his mid thirties approaching free agency with a questionable postseason resume who's
transcendent playmaking comes at the cost of functional valuability. And maybe yeah, they'll
still make a trade, hopefully for someone or that cracks their preferred closing lineup.
But it might just be it doesn't need to be a James Harden,
So I'm catering to that possibility. And I'm also just saying there's going to
be a team somewhere that will start off poorly enough, extremely worse for wear
relative to their preseason projections, desperate for an infusion of something, anything,
anyone, and they will talk themselves into James Harden being an upgrade through over
what they have through at least mid April, late April whatever. I don't
know who that team is, shout out Timberwolves, maybe Bulls, maybe Nicks,
whoever they're gonna tal. I'm just I'm trying to will it into existence.
If you're asking me for a confidence meter on this, it's we're at
like we're single digits out of a hundred. I as you're as you're talking,
I'm trying to think, I love this, I love the take.
I'm trying to think, like who that team is going to be? Like
who you know? You you hear Miami, But that always just kind of
feels like half of a joke because of the conditioning side of it and hardened
being involved in that. What's Miami's penchant now for almost acquiring Stars. Well,
yeah, they're like the Danny They're the new Danny age Celtics of the
NBA of like we were in on it. We just, you know,
we just couldn't get there, man, Like where does Harden? I guess
if there were an easy answer, that suitor would have emerged. But yeah,
I think it'll take some level of desperation and some amount of passage of
time, and then you will get more because like, if the Clippers were
gonna do this, they would have done it, right, Like, by
this point, it's couldn't you see what's more? So? What's more,
it's I think we know what's more likely if they start to play poorly or
there's an injury, that's going to increase their urgency to get a hardened deal
done more than if they're playing well. Right. Yeah, I think that's
right because if they're playing well, the Clippers sort of have validation of oh
no, these two guys plus role players will work as long as we're healthy
and we're playing well, and then we don't need to introduce this massive variable
to the equation. I think that's right. And yeah, and it's also
just if you're the Clippers, what you're willing to offer probably diminishes a little
bit with each passing game, because now you just you're getting hardened for fewer
guaranteed games, Whereas if you your best offer in theory should have been on
the table when you knew you could have theoretically had him for all eighty two,
and now it's just okay, a share of this season is being eaten
into with each passing game. Is their offer going to get worse? And
so? Is there just another team who's more desperate that maybe they're still not
giving up a crap ton and maybe it has to be like a nineteen team
trade scenario, but they're gonna give you more than the Clippers are willing to
give up at this point. And that's just sort of I don't Again,
I don't know how much I believe this, but I of randomness. So
I'm gonna I'm gonna curry to that, all right. I have, like,
I don't know how much you know there is to chew on here,
but I have an Orlando Magic take. Are you prepared for it? Would
you? Please? I'm just I'm asking, don't get them angry, don't
get the fans angry. I have nothing to lose. Dan I got nothing
to lose with Orlando and like this will be another hybrid positive. So it's
that's what the that's what they uh. I think at the end of this
season, you will not find many people. I don't know how to frame
this, like I think it will be broadly accepted that Franz Wagner is the
better prospect than Paula Bancaro too hot, not hot enough. I don't think
it's I think it strikes the right balance, but I wouldn't call it a
hybrid positive. I feel like that would make some people angry because you're maybe
not no, let's let's let's go at it from this way. I don't
think it means like bank hero is gonna you know, shoot thirty eight percent
from the field and just not matter. I think he will get a lot
better. I think he'll you know, I think he's going to be a
very good player and his ceiling remains like stupid high. I think Wagner,
though, like just cut last year eighteen six three and a half assists,
four point one rebounds, shot thirty six point one percent from three forty eight
and a half percent from the field. Is age twenty one season and then
goes and plays in Foba. I know, like it's easy to you know,
all the Anthony Edwards stuff in Foba is like, oh, he's arrived,
and then it's like, well, you know, it's nice. But
I think that Foba stuff does matter sometimes, especially when it's a guy that,
like his role for Germany is different than it is for the Magic,
right, Like there's other in Germany has to do, just he has to
stretch and do more stuff, and as an international player, like he was
awesome, And I just think that suggests to me that Wagner is somebody that
well, like put one of his main strengths is his ability to make open
shots, to defend, to attack the basket, to pat like he's versatile.
That's like a big plus for him. I think there's just more of
everything that he can do. And I think what he did in Foba and
sort of like just the natural progression of his game, starting out as a
rookie already being able to do way more than he was billed as like he
was supposed to be. Like, well, i think he's going to make
open threes coming out of college, but I'm not sure what else. And
immediately that was debunked. I think he has such a complete game and is
so capable of being like just higher in the pecking order on all fronts as
a scorer, as a distributor, as a defender. That will end this
season and look at him as someone that is just like remember when Gordon Hayward
was like at his absolute peak, you know, with you like coming off
those Utah seasons, Whereas like, this guy's game just has no holes.
Like he he understands how to use his frame, he's quick, he's strong,
he scores at all three levels. I think that's I mean, that
might even undersell what I think Franz could do, but I see him surpassing
ban Cao in terms of like, oh this is our guy. Yeah,
that's it. That is pretty bold, just because even if bank Caro has
a like regresses this season for some reason and which I don't think will happen
to be clear, yeah, or Franz Wagner is like improves a bunch while
that happens, it's you look at I think bank Carroll's passing for me and
the ability to get to the foul line is the biggest thing. Uh.
And I don't know if there's gonna be enough of a differentiator for them on
defense. I think Palo's more switchable. I think Franz is definitely the better.
Gives you more positional malleability technically, and it's going to be better in
one on one situations. It's I I'll frame it this, I was probably
overreacting to your overreaction. If that comes to fruition, that's that's a good
problem to have, I think. So the other thing is this changes if
ban Caro because he only shot one three in Orlando's first game Bankaro did,
and he shot under thirty percent from deep last year, that matters a lot
less if he's just gonna be a center, you know, at some point
point, which won't happen now, because Wendell Carter is you know, a
pretty good starter and is on a good contract and is just going to be
the five there. But if if we start getting signs that ben Caro is
just like, oh no, he's he's a five that can handle the ball
and pass and score and attack the basket, like, then the prospect uh
calculus changes a little bit because that player type is like, that's rare and
that's incredibly valuable. So but I don't know that that's going to happen this
year. Maybe the maybe the really crazy overaction would be it'll be abundantly clear
that benk Caro is going to play center full time by some point during this
year. That would be I think I would. I'm trying to figure out
what would surprise me more. I just think Carter is good enough to just
they're not going to mess around with that too much yet. Probably. Okay,
you're ready for a Milwaukee overreaction. And we haven't even seen Milwaukee play
yet. And that's not because we didn't watch their game. It's because we're
recording this before they make their season debut. The Bucks will have have a
top three offense and defense this season. The offense is sort of self explanatory
because Damian Lillard turns what was once their greatest weakness into probably one of their
biggest strength now, which is just half court creation, shot making versatility overall.
Now, the defense gets it gets iffy because you go, I mean,
after your top four players, then one of them, your top four
players, Damian Lillard, who's not a good defender, and so by getting
rid of Drew Holliday, it's not just that you lost your best perimeter defender,
it's that you now have added one in Damian Lillard, who a lot
of the times is going to be actively damaging, right, And so you
are deciding that, hey, you know, Brook Lopez and ghanaz can just
handle all like everything we need from them. And I think that's the reason
we're had to make I just I look at this team and yeah, I'm
kind of okay, we need Pat Connaton and Malik Beasley and Jay Crowder to
have really good seasons probably for them to crack the top three of defense.
But I just when you can stagger Brook Lopez and Jiannis and just still kind
of have the same base defensive approach, like it can work. And last
year specifically, like their defense when Brooke and Giannis were on the floor without
Drew Holiday still rated in the ninety seven percentile. And so we're talking about
a sub seven hundred possession sample size, but that's not nothing. And when
you can separate those two, now what happens when you're adding Dame rather than
Javon Carter into the mix, Like, yeah, okay, it's a lot
different, But we're supposed to be overreacting here. We haven't seen them play
yet, So it's all roses for me, And I think the bigger thing
is, what are you more worried about the talent being able to float a
top three defense or getting enough availability from let's say Middleton, Lopez and Yannis
for that top three defense to exist. Yeah, I think it's the latter
because my main my first thought was like, Middleton's got to do some heavy
lifting, like as a wing defender on this team, and that makes me
a little uncomfortable. I just but I still when they made the trade,
I had we probably talked about this. I had defensive questions. But if
if it does, if it comes right down to it and Lopez and Janis
are on the back line, like how bad is it really going to be?
You know, like that there's it can only be so bad. My
my take was probably not as uh well, I don't know. It was
also offense related that Jannis is going to have his highest field goal percentage of
his career this year, which like his career highs fifty seven point eight percent,
which was in seventeen eighteen, and that's high. Like, if you're
up close to sixty percent, that's pretty good. I just I just think
having Dame there, in my mind, should just eliminate like Giannie's four worst
shots per game, just he doesn't have to take those anymore. And you're
from there, You're just you know, he's gonna bump up whatever five percent
and that's gonna get right to it. But I like that. I like
your take. I think I'm trying to think what I'm more concerned about the
top three offense or defense because the late game stuff is solved with Dame.
But I wonder, over the course of forty eight minutes, like how I
that's a good thing, because there are ways for it to go very wrong
on both sides. For right, I just their half court offense when Middleton
came back the second time last year, was borderline statistically elite, Yeah,
and socially. Now you're just thrown Dame in there. And maybe or could
I be overestimating the upgrade of going from regular season Drew Holliday to regular season
Damian Lillard. I don't think I am offensively, but it's probably like Drew
Howdy makes jumpers in the regular season, that's what he does. No,
I think I kind of like that one. I'm trying to see if I
have any other ones. I must get out into the world. If you
have one, hit me. But I have a couple, and I think
I think they're mostly quick. We both predicted Evan Mobley to win Defensive Player
of the Year. I think I'm gonna stick with this, even though I
said Kate Cunningham made me rethink everything most improved or defensive player. Theyre Kate
Cunningham is not winning Defensive Player of the Year. No, no, I'm
it's a preamble. Okay, all right, all right, sorry, apologies,
Kate Cunningham, Devin miss Out, Franz Wagner, all players that made
me kind of wonder if I should go this route. Evan Mobley's gonna win
Defensive Player of the Year and most improved Player. I love it. It
comes down, I think to two things. We know what he is on
defense, but can he be that on defense while also playing minutes at center
when Jared Allen is one injured like he is right now or just off the
court. I think he's there. There's a lot of stuff going on with
that first calvs. Game, which is the only game we've seen in the
Cavs sample size. We have to work off for this. That's gonna be
the caveat as we wrap up this podcast, but it's gonna come down to
can he be the center? And I think he can. I think that
there is a little bit more of a physicality to his game. The bigger
thing he might be more foul troubled during those minutes. He's gotta figure that
out. The other thing is just is he branched out enough on offense,
because no one's gonna look at his defense say, oh, hey, he
did so good as the center, like he's defensively he's the most improved player.
I think he'll get there. On offense, we saw in the first
game sort of flickers of it. His decision making and confidence level levels feel
like they have increased, and it also seems like he's just quicker working from
a face up, working in the post. What he's doing looks less like
an anomaly and looks more fluid, like he's been doing it and it's second
nature and is at home doing it. It wasn't in high enough volume,
it didn't look great in the third quarter, but I think he can and
will get The bigger question for me is is there the runway for it to
happen on an iteration of the Calves team, of a Calves team that has
Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland to shoulder so much of the offensive burden. Is
Evan Mobley our number one guy on the list. I was talking about of
let god, let this be just do it, get there, get there,
Let this be the year because Ojiannaobi had it for me for a long
time, and Dearn Fox was that guy and then wasn't and then now is
again and has already arrived, and he's gonna be like top you know seven
in MVP voting. I think we're not talking about the West, but Mobiley,
I think is the one we just want to we just please get there,
right, He's got to be our number one. We need to come
up with a name, for a label for this category of player. Is
that a rush to urgency though he's in year three, That's the thing's all.
It's more ridiculous for us to feel that way about him than even like
Avdia, because for Mobiley to become what we keep hoping for him to be,
it's gonna take till he's like twenty five or twenty six, and like
what we hope he is is so high it's so much more than we expect
from like all these other guys we're rooting for. Yeah, well, Discord,
somebody on Discord figure out what we call that category player. I don't
have a Cavs one because I was just gonna say Mobile's gonna win Defensive Player
of the Year, which feels like an overreaction out because when Bin Yama exists,
but I have a heat one, you want to hear my heat one
please? All right? So historically, just they figure out how to defend
because they have a militaristic approach to training and they always try hard, and
Eric Spolstra just deploys the heat in ways that make defense good. They were
seventh on defense last year. They were twenty fifth on offense. I think
those numbers could flip this season, which is wild because they still have bam
Adebayo, they still have Jimmy Butler. This is based on the theory of
you're gonna play a lot of minutes with Duncan Robinson and Tyler Hero on the
floor together, and that's gonna make your offense a lot better than twenty fifth,
which is like, just looking at that from last year, it's so
hard to fathom how this offense was so terrible, it's also gonna make your
defense a lot worse than seventh. So I think there's a really good chance
Miami Field's a top ten offense this year and is in is close to the
bottom ten defensively, because I'm also pricing in. I think Butler's gonna miss
some time. That just is a given. And I think Lowry is now
just someone that like, I'm not what do we do with Kyle Lowry at
this point? Like it happened, like it's the aging curve is what it
is. But I just I don't think he's someone that he used to be
such a disruptive defensive weapon for a guy his size, and I just don't
really see that anymore. Uh So, mostly though, you're gonna play a
lot of Hero, a lot of Robinson, a lot of Hero Robinson together,
and I think that's just gonna make it too there's too many holes to
plug if that's if that's how you're going for it, so the numbers will
flip. I did like you were saying hero Ball with Robinson, like the
Hero hero Ball with other Robinson. But yeah, that's interesting. They're a
team that I just have no great feel for and part of that is they
just made the finals. They did lose key players like Tyler Herro wasn't playing
during that post. It's just I'm down on what they did over the off
season because of not getting Dame Lollard and laying those guys. But it's also
just like everything you lay out, I could also see them having an elite
defense still though, just like that's there, Yeah, I have I have
two more quick ones. My margin for error here is not very wide because
I already predicted two of my top three MVP finishers, which one of them
already went against what I said in the preseason. I had Devin Booker in
the top five. I put him third, said in the top three.
Oh no, I said it in the top five, and he won't be
fourth or fifth. So and I have Jokic winning it, as do you.
Yeah, Jason Tatum will be in the top three of MVP voting.
Is that not spicy enough? Well, I think it's. I think it
might run up against although like since since you're giving such a narrow like band,
I think that makes it spicy enough. But like, he's gonna be
on a team that wins a ton of games, and he'll be the best
player on that team. So I'm not sure it's just really good players tend
to cannibalize importance that he's playing with Drew Holliday, Chris Tops, who's apparently
Pek Rudy Gobert, and the best version of Karl Anthony Towns possible all at
once. And look, we know he had a good season in Washington.
I did not think the fit was gonna be as squeaky clean in Boston,
kind of knocking him down a peg or two in the offensive hierarchy. He
looked super comfortable. And I know it was the Knicks, and I don't
think their bigs are set up well to defend him, but he was.
They were the Knicks for Craven. They were terrified of christ Top. They
didn't know what to do with him in that game. And this is before
I thirty. This is all the say. So you have him, you
have Jalen Brown still, Andrew Holliday, so to kind of separate yourself enough,
which I think will happen. But he is one of the most complete
scores in the game. Now, that is the Jason Tatum stuff. Concerns
about that that ship is sailed years ago. At this point, maybe some
of the turnovers you get worried about. It comes down to the playmaking.
I think he's shown that he can get there and make more complicated reads.
I think he needs to get better at getting rid of the ball when he's
kind of working slower on some of the angles and the half court, or
just he can get a little bit tunnel visiony on his drives, separating yourself
just from that group to say, hey, you deserve to win MVP,
but best player on the best team is certainly okay. That's that's a case
that might write itself for him. Except here's the problem, and this is
why he's bold. Nicole jokicch and the Nuggets exist. So best player on
the best team already sewn up that, you know, that is a strong
point. I don't disagree with that. I'm trying to think, like,
I mean, we could just talk abouts if we're going to overreact to stuff,
because like he just looked unbelievable. I wonder if if part of what
could make your Tatum MVP prediction, you know, more like kind of out
on a limb than it might seem, is that Boston's still really thin,
and you know it's not necessarily a team like that. Level of or lack
of depth, I think means that, like you know, an injury or
two means the regular season record might not be that great. We all agree
that, like that top six is going to just crush in the playoffs.
That's what it's built to do. But maybe if they are not at the
top of the conference, which I think they will be, but you know
that's not a given, then Tatum's Tatum has to be really great statistically,
which which is possible. Was definitely like on the table for sure. But
but the risk of Boston's depth being an issue I think kind of helps your
case as a as an overreaction or a bold prediction. And they're clearly just
trying stuff. I know some of this had to do with what the Knicks
do on the offensive glass, but they were playing Chris Tops and Blue Cornette
together at one point, so like, you're clearly fun. They're searching my
final one on the East before we get to the listeners. So unless you
have you have any others, no, no, no, go ahead.
This is it's not necessarily because I believe in this team, but I'm just
convinced that this is the route it's gonna go. The Toronto Raptors are going
to make another win now trade everyone's waiting for the Raptors to trade some of
their good players to their favorite team. The Raptors are gonna go the other
way, and they've almost boxed themselves into a corner. One. First of
all, they don't subscribe to group think. If they did, they wouldn't
have let Fred van Vleet lock for nothing. They would have resigned Hm or
trade him at the deadline. But like, you're at a point now where
it's you can't you almost can't roll this back. You have Siakam, Trent,
and Oji Annoby are all headed to free agency, so you've passed the
peak of their trade values. For sure, you're gonna settle for less.
And you've re signed Yaka Pertl, who, by the way, you gave
up a top six predicted first round pick for that conveys to San Antonio this
year, you are by extension and like it's it's either it can go both
ways too. Maybe Scottie Barnes can like looks great and that's okay, like
we can do something now, or it doesn't look that great, and you
gotta account for that somehow. So maybe they still end up moving one of
the guys that everybody wants. But it'll be part of a win now trade.
And this is all you know, depending on whether you ask Messi Eu
Jerry, they loosely flirted with Dame. If you ask Bobby Webster, they
basically had Dame like there's there was no party line there. It seems like
I'm just convinced everyone's expecting Toronto to do one thing. And I'm not saying
they're the new Bulls, but it's they're kind of the opposite. They they're
just doing the unexpected and so I I don't know if they're gonna be good
enough to do this. And this is something that will probably play out closer
to February. They will make a win now trade. I'm not saying it'll
be a big win now trade, but they will make a win now trade.
They almost have to. That's that's you boil down my one minute ramble
to it. They you know, they they just they almost have to.
And it's not like they won't be doing it from a position of strength.
I don't think that's the I think I think that's right My my take on
them was that they will pick a direction, which is the boldest thing you
could possibly say about Toronto because they just won't or have not for a couple
of years, and we've harped on them for it. But yeah, like,
if you got these three guys hitting free agency and you've got this,
your tanking isn't really a great strategy for you this year and you just watch
van Fleet walk away and you did not move Gary, Trent or van Fleet
last year when this exact situation was looming, like you gotta like, you
gotta you might have. I mean you might as well. I don't know
what that looks like though, you know, if you if you make a
win now trade, like what are the pieces? I guess I maybe if
you trade Barnes that's pretty win now. But that's that's I mean, imagine
the stake, the situation they'd be in if they move Barnes and they got
all these free agents and you took on like veteran money or something. I
try to think what player would need to come avail, But they didn't trade
him for Kevin Durant. So I'm just kind of like and Ognanobi is uh,
you know, you need six first round picks to get in anobe,
So that's that's a tough one too. Are you ready to get into hot
or not? Yes, but I always do so I always do this wrong.
So if my answer is that is a hot take, I'm saying I
disagree with that, that's too ridiculous. And if it's not a hot take,
I just want to be clear because I feel like whenever I answer these,
I'm like doing the opposite. So the idea is basically, you would
bet if you're saying hot, because these are first of all, they're they're
submitted by our listeners, our Discord members. Again, get in Discord.
We try and run some stuff where you guys are everyone's involved, and also
we just appreciate when people ensure that we're not the only ones like coming up
with it. We want to do what people who are listening to this podcast
actually want to hear about. And it seems like our Discord members enjoy this.
So they're giving us hot or not hot takes that they believe are hot.
And if we say hot, we're bet against We're betting against it happening.
And if we're saying no, we're not sake it's a formality, but
it's just it's more likely than not, or more plausible than implot got it.
Okay, So I've been approaching this correctly. I've just been in my
own head about it. So if I say that's a hot take, like,
oh man, I don't know about that one. Okay, I'm ready.
So this one comes. It was a YouTube submission from Snoozer. Both
the Pelicans and Wolves will finish in the top three of the conference conference and
no team from Texas will make the playoffs. Oh that's a hot one.
That's a hot take. I was. I was like ready to call it
hot, just on the first part of the Pelicans and Wolves in the top
top three. Although I do have I think Minnesota has a chance to be
a really good regular season team. The Pelicans, I think. I don't
know about that. I like the Texas bit though, very hot. I
didn't watch the Timberwolves first game. They had their fans very concerned. They
did, We were both we did it again after maybe we were so relistant.
We were just high on the Timberwolves again and uh, double down,
double down, great, great hot take. Okay, So I would say
that a well Trey real Stroker Murphy from Discord. This is only a hot
take because everyone is way too high on them. But the Oklahoma City Thunder
will miss the postseason. Ooh, I mean that's on the board. I'm
gonna say that's not a hot take because I think what I said. Okay,
see when forty four and you had them at forty two. The West
is a total quagmire. There's like fifteen I shouldn't say fifteen. There's twenty
seven teams in the West that could all finish between you know, three and
twelve or whatever. So that's that's not that hot. I think the Thunder
could both be very good and interesting and exciting and also miss the playoffs.
I think here's here I would say not if you frame it this way,
the Thunder will not be in the top ten of the West. Is that
still hot? Because who are the teams and this isn't just about the Thunder
that you would be willing to bet are going to be in the bottom five.
I still think it'll be the Spurs. Yeah, if Oneby's not in
foul trouble every game, Portland, Houston is there. I'm out on Houston.
That's over. Though Utah is in the bottom five, right, Yeah,
and then it's yeah, I don't know, I think that's hot though
to say they wouldn't be a top ten team in the conference. Maybe,
So I like they're gonna win sixty one games just because of him, So
unless all the other teams win more than that, that's tough. Yeah,
that's a good one. That's that. That's a thinker. We have two
from cosmic raccoon. This one kind of steps on the toes of uh,
why she No, it doesn't. It goes the opposite route. Oh no,
it went the same route as you did. Hot or not. With
Morant out, Tias gone, Adams and Clark out will finally reach a breaking
point for what Taylor Jenkins can overcome, and the grizz will get off to
a very slow start. Yeah, I don't think that's I think that's not
hot. Just you know, I think it's going to be an offensive issue
because Adams really matters and Morant obviously matters offensively. I mean, yeah,
I could see a slow start. I could, but but really, like,
I think the defense is gonna be fine, but but I think the
lack of scoring is going to be put a slow start in, you know,
very much in the realm of possibility, and then it's like, suddenly,
I don't know what would you view that as? Like a referendum on
Taylor Jenkins though I guess that's not really what the question is saying. But
I'm just saying that he won't be able to kind of magic his way out
of this. I think that's I think that's I think that's not a hot
take. I think that's right. I would say not hot. This one
is is a little bit more interesting, hot or not with how Kid is
dealing with the lineups. The MAVs are going to get off to a slow
start, and Kid is going to be fired before Christmas. Oh well,
uh that we're just that girl reacting to the drink meme. Well, I
gotta do the Alonzo morning one next. I don't think that's no, that's
not hot, because if you asked me to pick like five coaches, and
you know, the top five most likely to be fired, kids just always
gonna be on that list. So I don't think that's quite hot enough for
me. That's what I agree. I'm gonna say hot, it's not to
me. It's not incomprehensible that they'll get off to a slow start. But
what makes it hot for me is two things. What were you expecting from
this team as the front office? If they're gonna be a deal, what
is kid? Would the offense? To me would have to be a train
wreck for them to not meet expectations. Everyone thought the defense was gonna be
bad. Everyone kind of recognizes that, No, they're not in the upper
echelon of the West and so unless they're like they have a worse record than
the Rockets or something, what are what are they missing there? And so
the other thing that I think would bode well for Kid is the fact that
he tried Derek Lively, so immediately, yeah, that's got to count in
his favor. I don't think he's a great coach by any stretch, but
like some of the stuff he's trying. Maybe, hey, look we already
talked about play four bigs with Luca. He'll try it. Let's do it.
Do you think though that I know we're trying to be quick here,
but don't you think that like a coach gets fired because he fails to meet
like the organization's expectations, which aren't always rational, and the Mavericks are by
definition not rational because they traded for Kyrie Irving, so as opposed to like,
yeah, we all agree the MAVs are, you know, in that
mess of the West, they're not a serious contender. I think what matters
more is that Dallas probably internally thinks this team, we have Luca, we
have Kyrie, were great, we got Grant Williams, we made all these
great moves, we got Derek Lively. And then if they do get off
to that slow start, then Kid just is going to be the guy to
get blamed because you can't turn around and trade Kyrie so easily that that's kind
of where I go with it, and I just Kid gets worse every year
he's with the team. That's just like the demonstrated pattern. So you might
I could see him getting fired before Christmas, though, I guess if you're
gonna do it, you might as well do it soon. Yeah, I
would have a more respect for that rather than well though, there's something to
be said about what the Hawks kind of did later in the season, but
it was because they wanted to go out and get who they believed was the
guy. Yeah, oh cars, as does this count? The West will
have four fifty plus win teams. That absolutely does count absolutely does count.
Yeah, that's hot because I think we both predicted only two or three.
So like, who's the So if we if we agree Denver Phoenix are the
two most likely, well, well who knows. But if that's the consensus
based on the over unders, so you got to get two of the what
Warriors, Lakers, Wolves, and then you're dipping into like the Pelicans,
MAVs, Grizzlies tier. Do you know what the problem is? And I
know you would. I'll throw the Warriors in here for your benefit. Is
that there are so many teams that if things break right, I could envision
winning fifty plus games. Because if you don't me, the Pelicans and the
Timberwolves did it because their guys stayed healthy. Sure, yeah, Denver,
we already mentioned Phoenix for sure. The Clippers, they're in that conversation.
Is that a little too early on the thunder. The Kings are certainly in
that conversation. I throw the Grizzlies out of there now that's over, but
the Warriors as well. So it's because there are so many teams with fifty
plus win ceilings, it works against there being that many fifty plus win teams
and therefore, oh, Oh, I see what you're saying. Well,
so is that a hot take or not? What did you say? I
think it's a hot take just because I don't think the wins will be available.
I see they're gonna They're gonna all spread them out too much. Yeah,
I think I think I agree with that. And part of the reason
that this is a hot take is because of this one from Kill hoss kdi
hot or not Kdie. Beal and Booker play fewer than thirty five games together
during the regular season. That is, well, let's see this is gonna
I'm gonna say that's not a hot take because that should just be the expectation
based on how few games Durant has played over the last several years and Beal
has not been an iron man. But I did I forget what the context
was. You asked me if I picked duran as the most likely guy to
play over sixty five games in podcast time like twenty minutes ago among a bunch
of injury prone guys. So I am arguing with myself, but I don't
think that's a hot take. I think that's pretty close to the expectation.
Yes, and as Kill has followed up, they sent the tweet of like
we've already seen beal missed Son's first two games. That's one one down.
Maximum is eighty one now now now it's two, no eighty. Yeah,
this one from from Rubik scal hot or not. Brandon Perzemski is gonna steal
Clay spot in the starting lineup. If I if I made you privy to
some Santa Clara text threads, I'm on, that's not a hot take.
Uh, that is way too hot. Pods did not play in the opener
because Corey Joseph is a game manager and Steve kerles veterans, so I'm not
seeing a huge role for Pods this year. Yeah, that's hot. Lanas
underscore t the Memphis Grizzlies will finish top four the West, so they're going
in the opposite direction of what that's a hot one. That's a scorcher.
Yeah, that is a scorcher. Probably submitted before the Adams injury. I
suspect Ruby Scout. No, No, it was I sent this out the
day before we recorded, so this is you know, regular season already started,
so hot. Uh. Ruby scu also submitted Russell Westbrook will injure his
knee before January and set out the rest of this season. I don't want
to weigh in on that. I don't want to root for for an injury.
That's that's hot because his availability has never really been in question. I
know he's dealt with n stuff and is getting older. I would say that's
hot though and morbid, even though Ruby Scout disagrees. So I said that
in discord. Uh. And finally, well, this is ruby Scal's last
last submission. Uh. Cad Cunningham will win Most Improved Player? Hot or
not? Oh? Well, I know that's a hot take for you since
you've already and it's a hot take for me. Jalen Williams is gonna win
it. Sorry, well, it's not a hot take because we picked someone
else. It's I would say, if they're going to finish not with the
the top five or something makes it a hot I would say that's not hot.
Well, is he does he fit the profile of a most improved guy?
You don't get You don't get to say that when you picked this second
year player. I know he's technically an at I picked a generational second year
player, to be clear. Yeah, No, that's a good point.
That's a good point. I think, yeah if he if Kid Cunningham won
Most Improved, nobody would be like stunned, right, not at all?
So I guess that's I guess that has to be a not hot Austin.
The Pacers will be a top five offense this year, hot or not five,
even though they scored so much. It's hot. That's hot because let's
let's see, Well, what do you think before we list the teams that
should finish top five? The Nuggets are there, yep, I guess we
I have to put the Bucks there just because I predicted them to finish in
the top three. But that was a hot hot one. I think,
so the candidates, I would say, certainly the Bucks, the Nuggets,
I think, I mean the Kings. The Kings are not going to forget
how to score. Yeah, And I'm wondering, like, does a full
strength Clippers team get there? Or Dallas? I mean Boston too, I
mean they weren't super. That was like they ugly, like the Knicks,
ugly up games from time to time. That's what they do. I mean,
Cleveland was seventh last year and they added Max Struce like that. I
mean Golden State was what eighth, ninth, something like that. And I
mean they added a point guard that won't throw the ball into the stands.
The Pacers are one of the teams similar to the vein of the Mavericks.
And I don't mean this is they are so in on the offensive end right
now when you look at their personnel in the lineups they run. Yes,
yeah, they were twenty first last year though. The Pacers, I guess
full season of Haliburton's. That's too hot. I can't get them up there.
I mean maybe trans top five transition frequency. Can we compromise. I
think I think that's where they'll be. That's not at all. Yeah,
that's a given. Uh hb Bergie. So he had They gave U three,
but there's one we already covered with. Well, let's do it this
way. The MAVs are a playing team, hot or not. Actually I
can't tell if they're looping all three of these together, but so let's loop
all three of these together. Hot or not. MAVs are a playing team.
Lakers are a five seed at best, Warriors are a six seed at
best. The MAVs bit is not a hot take. You know, they
could be tenth, they could be twelfth, they could be eight. They
could be sixth. I think both the Lakers, the Lakers and Warriors ones
are hot takes because either of those teams could be like second in the conference.
I think I don't think they have a fifth and sixth seed ceiling.
Austin has the Wizards will have the highest average points per game scored in NBA
history. I'm assuming they meant He meant allowed, Well, they're off to
a great start. I mean, well, I'd have to look up what
the worst defense of all time time is, So by definition, I have
to call that hot just because we're talking about historically bad defense. I think,
though, I think it's definitely not a hot take to say they'll have
the worst defense in the league this year, but all time is I don't
know. I can't quite get there. I mean, especially if you're looking
at just opponent points per game. I'm sorting this as I'm talking to you.
So Washington currently is number one, then they give up one three.
Nobody's ever, do you know? So there are two teams in NBA history
the nineteen Wow, Oh no, that was also too all right? So
so many are twenty twenty three, twenty twenty four. There's one team in
NBA history, the ninety ninety one Nuggets that allowed over one hundred and thirty
points per game. Yeah, okay, you think the Wizards could be after
that. I had to filter out this season because the Spurs and Utah are
also on this list. Eighty one, eighty two, Nuggets, one hundred
and twenty six. The SuperSonics in nineteen sixty eight were over one hundred.
So there's only been three teams in NBA history that allowed over one hundred twenty
five points per game. And I know we're not dealing with pace adjusted right
now, but this was the That's pretty hot, right, Yeah, that's
pretty hot. I like that. That was a little bit of a thinker.
Oh man, Peto hot or not? Trey Murphy is going to surpass
Brandon Ingram is the most important player on the Pelicans outside of him, assuming
outside of Zion. I mean, if granted Ingram gets traded, then I
think you're in good shape there. Otherwise, that's a little hot, especially
since Murphy's starting. You know, he's gonna be playing ketchup coming off the
injury in the offseason. Jt Alexander hot or not? I promise this isn't
reactionary and reflected in my over under predictions. But the Hawks will not even
make it to the plant this year. That's way too hot. I think
maybe I forget who was higher on them than between you and I. But
I think the Hawks can win, you know, in the high forties.
I don't see him missing the plan. As Mike Age added, I have
him finishing ahead of the sixers at Northern Knicks. I think he said he's
not real. JT said that they're not overreacting, so I thought this would
have been a reflection of okay, the Hornets. They losing to the Hornets
does that? But ooh, Austin, this is a big one. Zion,
PG and KD all play in sixty five plus games this year. Hot
or not, that's way too hot, way too hot. I would bet
against all of them playing sixty five games, let alone. Would you really?
Yeah? It wasn't It was Paul George, not Kauai. I stand
by it. I it's I'm gonna say it's not hot because I believe it
and I respect it. Kudos to you, Austin. That was That was
a good one. Uh Okay, Christopher Hot or not? Despite a bad
opening night showing, I think ad wins Defensive Player of the Year, which
also doubles as me predicting he'll play in sixty five games or more this season.
Hot or not, I can't. I gotta go, not just because
we've seen him play like the best defensive player in the world and all you
need him to do is stay healthy, which is a massive if. But
yeah, like it again going back to the theory of would you be shocked
if this happened? No, you know no, I would not be shocked
if he wonted Defensive Player of the Year. So not a hot take.
I think it's hot because of the sixty five game threshold. I'm sorry,
I don't mean to dilute it down to that. Uh wow, Oh no,
Okay, So Austin has despite taking it this is the last couple,
despite taking a swing on him and having basically nobody to build around yet the
Wizards will want out of the Jordan Poole era by this summer. You're really
trying to get me to say something reckless. I I I'd say that's not
hot. Uh, because can't you just envision like him just going a little
too far with the hijacking of the offense and they realize that this is not
a good environment to develop anybody. If that's how he's gonna play, it's
close, but I'm gonna say not hot. I'm gonna say that's not hot
either. And this is the let me just double check. This is the
last one comes from usher. Devin Booker is gonna prove to the league this
season that he is undoubtedly a top three guard, not just shooting guard.
I think by season's and the only guards may be ranked above him will be
Steph and Luca, assuming you consider him as a guard. He mentioned his
playmaking has become underrated, which we talked about of the last pod. So
hot or not not hot? I think Fox and Haliburton I'm really high on
kind of making a similar surge potentially, But yeah, that's not hot.
I mean he might just be that right now. It's a testament to have
a Booker that is not hot because there's Luca and Steph for sure, but
like we're also you mentioned Haliburton, Fox, There's Damian Lillard exists. We
don't know how great. I mean, Trey Young exists, Donovan Mitchell,
Darius Garland, Jamal Murray is a name we threw out there. I do
think it's very clear though, to be a top three guard. We're kind
of talking about VP level guards and to me, there's four of those right
now, and you'll have to let me know if you'd add anybody, Steph,
Luca, Devin Booker, and Shay. Yeah. I think that's right.
I think that's right. I mean it's yeah, and then Fox and
Halibert and I think we probably both have just like could get there but aren't
there yet, right, I think that. I think that's right. Yeah,
Booker, It's could be the season of Devin Booker for sure. Grant,
this was fun. Do you want to take us out of here?
Though? I agree? This was fun? Yeah. So especially thank you
everybody that offered up, everything from guests of that player that we've done in
the past to all of these hotter nots. Thank you for listening, Thank
you for participating. If you would like to participate in you are not and
you have been listening or watching, you can do that by joining our discord.
That is one of the best ways to get involved, to kind of
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as we do all of the others, with a shout out to Frank Nilachina
and an apology to Jared Allen and rip to Frank Nilachina is twenty twenty three
four season We're all both gone too soon.