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You're listening to Carrie Letts's Financial Survival
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Financial Survival Network now more than ever.

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Welcome you are listening to watching the
Financial Survival Network. I'm your host,

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Carrie Letts. CPI number comes out
today. Oh it looks so good if

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you could only believe it just five
point one percent or year over year.

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But what aren't they telling you?
What do you need to know? Eddie

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Gifford is with us now frequent guest
to the show. Eddie, welcome back.

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So you must be encouraged by the
CPI report today. Very thanks for

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having me. Yeah, I think
that I don't know if I'm encouraged from

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the standpoint that you know, we're
basically just staying right in alignment with expectations.

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The good thing is is that like
we're not off on the wrong side

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of things. So I think what
it does is it gives us more clarification

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that the Fed's going to come with
one more great hike unless something weird happens

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over the next two weeks, of
course, and that's going to be kind

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of you know, the slow and
steady race that they're trying to fight.

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Of Course, there's a lot of
stuff that can happen. There's some signs

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that a couple of things might have
broken. We look at last month as

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a proxy, so I'm interested to
see how everything goes. But I'm still

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not convinced that we're out of the
woods yet. Not out of the woods

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yet. I'm not convinced either.
These inflationary friends tend to take ten to

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twenty years. They don't just go
away after a year. And what everything

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the FED told us has been wrong? Transitory inflation? It's transitory. Well,

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everything in life is transitory when you
get down to it. Why should

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you believe them over this, Well, I think it's one of those things

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where you kind of can't. Right, if we go all the way back

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to the seventies, the way that
they calculated CPI compared today is completely different,

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and in fact, like some experts
have said that if they used the

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same methods they used back then,
our inflation numbers would be double what they

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are today. And I think that, you know, when I talk to

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clients on a daily basis, I
feel like that's where they're at. And

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the other thing that people don't remember
or don't realize is that, you know,

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even if you know we are five
today, and even if a year

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from now inflations three or even two
for that matter, all this stuff just

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stacks on top of each other.
Right, So it was ten percent,

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and then it was another five percent
on top of that, and it's another

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three percent on top of that,
and there's another two percent on top of

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that. Well, you look like
ty three to four year time period,

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and we're talking about the monthly outlay
being thirty or forty percent higher because of

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that stack in effect, and there's
only so much we can take as consumers

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before we start to break down.
And you know, the increase in interstrates

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doesn't help. It doesn't help at
all. And in fact, the reason

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that they're trying to increase rates is
because they are trying to break something.

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The easiest way to take demand out
of the market is to break something so

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that everybody just fleas and doesn't buy
anything anymore. And so it's it's definitely

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hard to be like, oh,
yeah, they have it right this time.

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I don't think the FED has ever
actually had anything right. I think

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there's a good chance that they've already
overtightened, and so you know, the

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question is is just when is that
thing going to break and what is it

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going to be. I don't know, but I think that a lot of

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people have like this uneasy feeling,
and I don't think they're wrong, right,

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I mean, yeah, obviously,
look at the regional banks. They

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broke them, right, Yes,
definitely, the regional banks are kind of

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like the first and the thing that
that whole situation is over, I think

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is very naive. The reality is
is that every single bank, big or

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small, does have a lot of
these long dated treasuries on the books.

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Their balance sheets are going to look
very very bad this year. And you

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know, the reality is is that
but before a couple of weeks ago where

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they got backstopped, there was a
lot more risk, of course, but

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the things are kind of breaking down, and I don't know if it's going

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to be a big bank that goes
under. I don't know if they're what's

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going to happen, but it feels
like there's another credit event looming. It

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could be the fact that everybody refuses
the slowdown unspending, and so they're do

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the whole buy now, pay later
thing for everything. So the stating effect

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continues. It's just at what point
does it hit that hit and just like

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burst. And unfortunately, the thing
that always happens with these things is that

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it's the one thing we weren't thinking
about or weren't talking about. And I

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don't know what it is, but
it's it's hard to be like, oh,

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yeah, we should just go one
hundred percent stock market right now.

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That this doesn't feel right to me
at this moment. So where need to

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The information you need to drop now
more than ever. Well, when

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we're looking at portfolios in general,
portfolio construction is huge, and so you

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know that the whole like diversification thing, but actually be truly diversified. You

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own own stuff like bonds, own
stuff like gold, own the precious metals.

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There are probably some cryptocurrency like bitcoin
in there too, and then have

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an exit strategy for everything that you're
actually buying, right, it doesn't just

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just buying it itself and then forgetting
about it. I mean, technically that's

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a strategy. Technically that's a plan, but you should have an exit strategy.

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You should have like I'm going to
buy this because of this reason,

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but I'm gonna say it when it
hits this because I'm going to cut my

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losses, or I'm going to take
money off the table when it hits this

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because I'm going to take some profits. So I think having an actual investment

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plan with several different types of investments
in it is important. I think that

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there's you know, there's there's merit, but there's also danger to the idea

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of, well, I'm just gonna
put all my money in treasuries because I

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can earn four and a half five
percent. The problem is is that when

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does the money go back in?
Right? What if what if this melt

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up that we've seen so far since
October of last year, go spend another

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one hundred percent before it pops,
because that could definitely happen. And you

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know, and and I mean,
if we're sitting on the sideline earning five

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like, maybe we're comfortable there.
I mean at the day, it just

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comes down to whether or not the
client is comfortable or the person is comfortable.

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But at the same time, if
you're missing out on a thirty forty

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fifty percent increase on the other side, that can really beat you up emotionally

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and psychologically as well. Right,
So I think the versification having an exit

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strategy. But any money that you
need in the next six, twelve,

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eighteen months, don't take risk with
it. There's just really too many unknown

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factors out there. I couldn't agree
with you more. And so caution is

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the buy word. Don't buy and
hold, but don't buy and fold either,

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right exactly. I mean you have
to have you either need to work

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in with an advisor that has a
rule set of this is what we buy,

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this is when we buy it,
this is when we get out,

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And so we're taking the emotion out
of things. The may invaritate, the

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more evolved how that things get,
The more emotional people get, and the

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more they're likely to act on something
that maybe they wouldn't have acted on if

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they were just like looking at it
or zooming out before making that move.

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So I think that you know,
definitely having a plan of not only like,

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oh, what's my long term financial
plan? How do I hit my

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retirement? What do I do for
my savings goals and that type of stuff,

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but actually have like, hey,
when I buy this, if it

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goes down ten percent, I'm going
to get out, right, if it

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goes up fifteen percent, I'm going
to take some money off the table.

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I mean, I'm a Vegas boy. I'm from Las Vegas. So I

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know that any successful gambler out there
has their set of rules and they follow

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them right and I think that the
same thing holds true an investment land right

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now. We got to have rules, we got to follow them, and

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we got to stay away from all
the emotional distress that can happen because we

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could be up fifteen percent next month
and we could also be down thirty percent

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next month. That's just the kind
of market that we're in. Exactly.

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Couldn't agree more. Well, we
appreciate you're coming on as always, Eddie,

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tell us where we find you on
the web, how we connect with

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you. So obviously one of the
easiest ways to go to that thing called

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Google and type in Eddie Gifford.
That's Eddie with a Y Gifford GI f

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O r D. But the website
is cactivewealth dot com backslash Eddie Gifford.

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That's the easiest way to kind of
like get out there and kind of do

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like your own research on me and
then see where I've been and learn a

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little bit more about my story.
But I'm excited to talk to anyone who

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while wants to just get a different
perspective or maybe a different opinion on things,

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since everyone really seems to be the
same. Well, you know what

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they say about opinions. But in
any event, if you've got a question

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for Eddie, shoot us an email
or myself for that matter, k l

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at Kerry Lutz dot com. Make
sure you go over to the site Financial

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Survival Network dot com and you'll find
a link to Eddie's site in the show

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notes. Just click it and you'll
get there and sign up for your free

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newsletter while you're at it. Eddie
a pleasure, Thanks for stopping by.

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Thank you for having me Kerry,
as I always have a great day.

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Thanks for listening to carry Lutz's Financial
Survival Network, your solution to today's trying

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00:11:01,120 --> 00:11:05,039
times. For the latest, go
to Financial Survival Network dot com. Financial

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00:11:05,159 --> 00:11:09,320
Survival Network now more than ever,