More Americans living in poverty level means that more people on unemployment. More jobless
claims means more debt on credit cards. So in that case, it's going
to be good for the FEDS down the road to be able to ease up
on interest rates because so much of Middle America is just living on fumes.
You know the job report, I Feds wanted to get unemployment. Uh that
down. You're listening to Carrie Letz's Financial Survival Network, where you get valuable
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ever, and welcome. You are listening to watching the Financial Survival Network.
I'm your host, Carrie Lutz. Is Friday, November tenth, and yes,
we do work on Friday. Sometimes some of the world does, but
it seems like less and less less than the lesson the world working on Monday
through Friday as well. And speaking of that, we got some jobless claim
numbers. David Wright is with us. Now. You find David at Right
Financialgroup dot com is book is Bonfires of the Saturdays. No, not Vanities,
not the Tom Wolf book. It's Bonfires of the Saturdays dot com.
David, it's great to have you on again. So, hey, what
about the jobless report? We should be happy? Well, I guess so
we're good and bad reasons. The Jobless Report came out at about two hundred
and seventeen thousand actual. They had forecasts two hundred and fifteen thousand. It's
significant because more Americans living in poverty level means that more people on unemployment.
More jobless blames means more debt on credit cards. So in that case,
it's going to be good for the Feds down the road to be able to
ease up on interest rates because so much of Middle America is just living on
fumes. You know. The job report, Feds wanted to get unemployment,
uh that down. It's been in the three percent range, three point you
know, two to three point three, three point eight, heading now closer
to four percent, so that closer to five percent. Then I think the
FEDS may seriously start considering, you know, pivoting, but that's going to
be a while yet. I think there needs to be more negative reports before
that happens, okay, So it's not going as quick as they want it
to go. In other words, they're unhappy. Too many people are working
right now. There's just too much demand for skilled and positions that are not
being killed right now. There is just more people that are there's there's too
many jobs available still not people to fill them. They're still fairly robust economy
out there. We've got a GDP that's still in the three to four percent
range because basically inventories and supplies a bettery refilled. But the bottom line here
is we know long term that inflation it was long as it. It's hanging
around there at the three point seven to four percent range. The Feds aren't
going to budge. I don't really think Carrie, they're going to do much
in December besides just kind of pausing and and check the data. I know,
I know jer Own Powell, if he were a poker player, it'd
be hard to read, you know what he's doing. But his talk is
stoped. He's certainly coming through like a hawk. But is that really going
to happen? They got to really, you know, do anything with the
short rate. I don't know, you know, my guests would be now
that they're probably not. So he just gave a little talk with the IMF
and he's talking real, real, you know, hawkish as they say,
dutsh and hawkish. Yeah, like maybe certain leaders of terrorist organizations we've seen
on the one hand they're saying all nice things in English, but on the
other hand, in their own language, they're saying death to everybody. Right,
yeah, I mean it's really a mixed up world that we're living in
right now, and God only knows where it's gonna had. We see,
you know, unemployment in our country still pretty low, but yet the deficits
in our country keep rising. Our GDP I checked out the other day,
Actually our GDP at about twenty six trillion, but our debt at thirty three
trillion. We've got a debt to GDP rate show now that's oh about one
hundred and twenty, which is as high as it's been since World War Two.
So till Congress figures things out, you know, I heard a good
one. If pro is the opposite of Khan, then progress must be the
opposite of Congress. And I yeah, they just can't get a damn thing
done. They can't figure anything out. So until that all gets rehauled.
I think that the modern monetary theory just kicked the can down the road further
manned up being the way well. I always say, the basis of any
monetary system is confidence. Without confidence, you can't have a fiat system.
And you know what the root of confidence is, con right, Yeah,
yeah, yeah, yeah, certainly so the stock market, you're basically seeing
that it's foreseeing that it's going to be range bound. It's going to be
range bound. I think that we're looking at the S and P five hundred
probably hanging in the forty five hundred to thirty eight hundred ballpark for the rest
of the year, probably ending the year around forty two forty three hundred points.
But next year I do see that things are going to be more pressure
for the Feds to do some pivoting because a lot of these corporations are going
to have to renegotiate their leases, et cetera. That's going to hurt earnings.
I think the banks can't really handle much more with the higher interest rates
for longer scenario. Already bank presses are there, you know we how much
more? Well? I mean the question I always want to ask somebody I
can't get an answer, is how much debt is too much debt? You
know, we we we're the largest economy in the world, and we also
have the most debt of anybody in the world. So when does that correlation
could get out of whack. When does too much debt, too much debt,
and that colapses the whole system. I mean, what are your thoughts
on that. Well, if you're the Federal Reserve, I don't think they've
ever seen too much debt. They've been manufacturing more and more debt since nineteen
thirteen. That's kind of been their mandate, right, Yeah, I think
crisis and appointment. If you're a regional bank, you're in a world of
pain right now, right You're in a world to hurt. Well, you
got all these loans held on the book, real estate lost during loans three
percent, and then you've got to pay out these short term depositors six fives
and six percent. The margins don't really work too well, so they're under
a lot of stress. I mean, I walked into my local bank here
as that shall remain nameless, and they're just like gutting the inside facilities.
These banks are are becoming like bomb shoulders. You walk in and it's like
you feel like you're at a pawn shop. They're they're stripping them down.
I don't know whether they're just trying to save money or what, but it's
pretty sad around here in the Midwest. O. Hey, you know,
they're all under pressure and there's really nothing that can save them short of going
back to quantitative easing and really consolidation. You know, Jamie Diamond said,
we don't want any more of them. They took over I don't remember who
they took over, Silkonda Valley Bank. Did they take over, yeah,
Public, He said, we don't want anymore. But you know that when
these banks start falling, basically, it's going to be like do you remember
during the Great Financial Crisis when Merrill Lynch fell, and then they called up
the Bank of America Ken Lewis and mister Lewis, congratulations, you are now
the proud owner of Merrill Lynch. They said, I don't want Merrill Lynch,
so I don't want them. Then they said you're not hearing us.
Congratulations, you're now the proud owner. And then like three weeks later,
he was gone. He was no longer. As it turned out, it
worked out. It was a great deal for them, but they were all
in solvent. Then do you think bikes are insolvent? I think they are
already heading there. I mean when you look bit the Feds, the Feds
can afford to not raise rates right now because they're tightening. They're still doingtat
quantitative tightening, So they're they're just letting the bonds roll off the system that
they purchased during COVID, so that the monetary supply is shrinking while at the
same time, uh people savings accounts are drying, drying up, and uh
so the monetary supply is shrinking. More debt, more foreclosures, and I
think that's just all gonna I hate to be a doom and gloom guy,
but it's hard to see a very glamorous, uh elegant way out of this
problem moving forward. This soft landing that they all talk about, there's going
to be a lot of people that are left ing, uh, that that
are devastated by this. M All right, Well, they enough enough good
news, So tell us about Bonfires of the Sanities. Well, first I
need to correct you. It's bonfire Bonfire Angular. Bonfire of the Sanities a
book, a labor of love of about four years of mind. It's written
in a very casual manner. Abraham Maslow, the famous psychologist, wrote that
there were three things that basic needs for humans, for food and shelter,
you know, for safety and self actualization. And I played the lead role
in a musical in high school, tell you Fiddler on the Route. Oh
we're a rich man if I would an itch man, And if you look
at it, people were a rich During that monologue, he's fantasizing Carrie about
having you know, if you were the wealthiest man in town, he'd fill
his yard with ducks and chicks and geese and you know, mate servants throwing
you around. He'd have one staircase going up, one coming down, and
one extra one just for show. But then the as the song goes on
and he really realizes what it's important. Money's important to him for is to
go to the synagogue and pray to be a more learned man, to be
a person that helps society. Right, Soli Americans, it's not about having
tons of money in the bank. It's about having enough income from the money
to be able to do those things that you want to do. Travel to
Thailand, go place you know, live your life and be able to have
food on the table, be able to have safety for your future, and
that you're not going to run out of money. So this book, Bonfire
the Sanities takes us through, chapter by chapter where my star was, where
the markets got to where they are today, and some common sense whips about
how we can help you fix your problems and get you reshifted into a more
Maslow self fulfilling prophecy for your retirement, comfort, safety of income. Oh,
it makes complete sense. I'm I like the little play on words,
and you should have dedicated the book to Zero Mostelle, right, I love
Leerra Mostelle. Yeah, he's my favorite. You know he was the best.
For sure. We're dating ourselves a bit, but I think we are.
We are. I think I saw it with him. I remember correctly.
Zero Mostelle did the Broadway version. You probably saw, yes, in
New York? Do it? Ah? The movie He is a little movie
the look he was told. I don't know I ever saw the play,
but I definitely saw the movie. Yeah. Topol played the movie version of
it, and you know he absolutely nailed the role. Yeah, great,
amazing, And you know what the musical Fiddler on the roof so tinly for
what we're going through now in the Middle East, and uh, you know
the persecutions true, so true, and you know, it's just pretty amazing
what's happening? Hey, that absolutely so place to find you. Right Financialgroup
dot com. Right Right Financial with a w Right Financial Group dot com.
And if you log in there, you'll see a lot of things that we
do for our clients, ways that we help you get focused, some good
complimentary giveaway stuff, some things that you can learn about how we select funds,
how we select strategies for prem poster diaries, and how to get a
copy of this book. Okay on Fire Sanities dot com. All right,
well, we love it and the links are in the show notes of this
interview on Financial Survival Network dot com. Hey got a question comment for David
myself? Shoot us an email k L at Carrie Luods dot com. Hey,
David, best of luck and we'll talk to you again soon if I
would, itch Man, I haven't lost it yet, all right, I
see a remake. I see a remake in your future a remark. All
right, great to talk to you. Thanks, Heerny, thanks for listening
to carry Letz's Financial Survival Network your solution to today's trying times. For the
latest, go to Financial Survivalnetwork dot com. Financial Survival Network now more than ever,