Welcome to another episode of the Hardwood Ox Podcasts. Everyone, I am Dana
Valley, coming at you solo because my co host Adam Bromwell is super selfish
and decided to take a vacation that infringed upon our schedule. He was supposed
to be back, but he's running into some transportation issues, so it's just
me. Luckily we do these mail bags have a ton of questions in store,
so we're not going to want for content. I will get right into
this. As a note for anyone listening to the podcast version of this,
this was recorded before Game three of Buck Suns. I'm not answering any specific
game questions with that. However, I'm going to begin with a question about
Drew Holiday from Kim, who asked what is wrong with Drew Holiday and also
asked why the Bucks are playing so poorly against Phoenix. Actually don't think they've
been playing poorly at my age after game three, so I'm not going to
go deep into that. They probably they need to figure out how to score
more points. I'm generating more fish an offense, I should say. And
game two, you look at their offensive rating, it was like a little
bit better than the average that should be fine, but this comes back to
due holiday overall, and in the playoffs they need more from him. He's
clearly an upgrade over Eric bletso he has been fantastic for them on defense during
the playoffs, including I think for the most part during this Phoenix series as
well. But you got him because he's supposed to be. And he is
a better shot creator, better shot maker, just more of a threat in
the half court than Eric Bletso someone who defenses need to respect, need to
cover, and defense is aren't necessarily abandoning him. But he's shooting for the
playoffs, and this isn't you know, this isn't a final specific thing.
I know he's had two rough games in the finals. He's been up and
down a lot these playoffs. He's shooting fifty of ninety at the rim,
which is fifty five point six percent. That's against the league average in the
playoffs of sixty four point seven percent. And that's where you know, a
pretty good amount of his shots are coming from within that area. I know
these aren't easy layups that he's taking, but when nearly thirty percent of your
shots are coming at the rim, when these are shots that you've made in
the playoffs. That is absolutely an issue. And it's not like he's hitting
his outside looks either. He is shooting under thirty two percent from three for
the playoffs, and he is you know, when you factor out heaves,
he is only thirty of ninety four and above the break threes during the postseason,
which is thirty one point nine percent, and that's where another thirty percent
of shots are coming from. He's actually done kind of sort of okay in
those in between spots. So he's shooting thirty of sixty eight on twos outside
the restricted area, but inside the paint forty four point one percent, again
not spectacular, but not terrible. And then he's at thirty eight point six
percent on long twos, which is just fourteen percent of his shots coming from
that area. Is a little weird. I think that's really a factor of
him having the ball in his hands. When you do generate your own shots,
you are going to get more of those looks. You would like that
number, I guess to be a little bit higher, but it's, you
know, thirty eight point six percent on twos outside the paint. Not great.
We've seen worse runs. I really think he needs his three point shooting
to normalize, and he's never been the most knockdown shooter, so I think
he more looked at it as they need more from him as a finisher at
the rim, and his attack mode is super valuable in that regard. I
would expect him to bounce back at some point. At the same time,
I do think it's discouraging, to say the least, that this has been
a postseason long thing with him on offense, where yes, he's had his
moments, He's hit some big shots, and I can't do anything to take
away from his defense. He is so good both as a I would argue
as a team defender, but really as someone who's who's on the ball can
handle all these different types of assignments. You just look at the breath of
guys that he has covered before this series. You need him to be better
than he is on offense, and I'd probably argue that just by virtue of
the respect he commands on offense with the ball in his hands, He's still
an upgrade there over Eric Bletsoe. But to come out of this final series,
specifically, if you're listening to this on Monday or Tuesday, just after
Game three, at any point if the Bucks won, I'm just going to
assume that because Drew Holiday had a good offensive game, and the final thing,
I'll stay here. I don't think it's been talked about enough is the
Bucks feel like they haven't had any of their three stars cooking at once in
the playoffs. They've had games, of course, where it's one of them,
like Game two of the Finals where Giannis goes off and no one else
really you know, Middleton struggles and Holiday struggles. They've been games where two
guys go off. They've had games where Chris Midleton is good for a half
or good for a quarter and then sort of fades. Never all three of
them. It feels like have just been going off at once. And that's
clearly when the Bucks are at their most dangerous, and so you need all
three of your stars to be on point. The biggest roadblock to that happening,
aside from if you want to talk about Chris Middleton, it's waxing and
waning act. And you won't find a bigger Chris Middleton propagandist than me in
the NBA media. I don't think bit up and down at points, and
that might be what separates him from the truly elite players. So the bigger
roadblock is just Drew Holiday has not been Drew Holiday on offense for most of
the playoffs. We have two notes in the chat Noah shout out to Noah
for coming back is always. The Bucks also have no depth, like it's
surprising they're in the finals while only going eight deep. I agree and disagree.
I'm pleasantly they have no depth. I one hundred percent agree right there.
Missing Dante deven Tenzo sucks. The fact you have to rely on Jeff
t get All in the NBA Finals, It is definitely problematic. Pat making
Pat Conatton happen. It's a tricky proposition. I think it's paid off more
often than not in the postseason, so that's good. I would argue that
Bud shortening his rotation during the postseason was actually impressive. But they do feel
like if you want to ideally shorten your postseason rotation, they still feel like
one every day matchup proof player short of being super elite or you know,
the surprise could lie in. And I don't disagree with Noah here is there
have been nights where I don't know that Pja Tucker has provided enough defense to
justify how much offense he's not giving you hasn't shot the corner three well for
most of the playoffs, and if he's just not a high volume got to
begin with, so he's not making the most of his low volume opportunities.
He has to be defending incredibly well to value just and have alternatives. Brent
Forbes such a defensive liability for them, And if he's not hitting shots,
it's tough to play him. And then, as I mentioned, Jeff t
just shouldn't be in this this rotation for them, but he kind of you
know, now it's the jeff Te dependence is a necessity, Brandon said,
simply inconsistency. I'm assuming he's talking about the Bucks at large or drew In
Chris Middleton. I would I totally agree with Chris Middleton. He I just
feel like he would be among one of the consistently, you know, the
top fifteen to twenty five guys in the league for season long spans if he
was more aggressive. And then I do think there's an element of a shot
making where it bails out before the rim, and I think that lends itself
to hire variants. And if you're not a Devin Booker. If you're not
a Chris Paul, that's just not going to fly. Steve says it seems
tough to counter campaign Cam Johnson and Tory Craig with Jeff T. Kim Brin
Forbes. Yeah, I this is Look, if the Bucks lose, the
story is going to be that this is because of the Suns. The lad
be at least they are so deep, and the fact that you have campaign
in game two, I think he logged under ten minutes. I'm doing this
stuff off the top of my head. Didn't really score. I think it
was one of three or something. Just stupid from the field. And he's
still getting doubled coming around picking rolls because he's been such a jitterbug for them
on offense, hit off the dribble, three's scooted to the rim. He's
really improved as a passer. To me, Cam Johnson is an all around
player, by the way, I think we need to talk about that more.
Just someone who's a good cutter will be opportunistic on the offensive glass We
know about his shooting, and he's held up more than I think anyone would
have predicted defensively over the course of his career, but especially this season.
Tory Craig, who, by the way, as we're recording this found out
is indeed planning to play Game three, so hopefully there was no structural damage
that knee injury he suffered, which was good news but still sort of ambiguous.
The fact that he's trying to play is huge, and he's been big
for them, the Bucks getting rid of I know he wasn't playing there,
but like they really could have used him in this series. Then giving him
away from three is a yeah, not so great now, but he is
Tory Craig one of the better rebounding especially in the offense and class wings in
the league. Also someone who with Phoenix has been hitting his threes and gives
you a lot defensively, and now because of as Steve mentioned, the Dario
Sharks injury, you need him more to kind of unlock your smaller lineups where
Jay Crowder is going to be your five, where it's committee with Jay Crowder
and Tory Craig. But I say you have to go to those lineups.
But when it's Frank Kimitzky that's gonna be getting reps, there's you know,
I don't know how long that really flies for so he's important. Hopefully he's
help you play, Hopefully they get good minutes. If he's too injured to
go or if he's just not great. I'm wondering if we see more of
abdel Nader, because I do think that you have to lean on those smaller
combinations after the DeAndre Ayton minutes. Just looking at your alternatives now, which
is Frank Kimitzky, and just the fact that Steve mentions this the Yannest the
five lineups at the Bucks are surely gonna counter with just given how much less
they've gone with Bobby Porters throughout this series. And I don't you know,
Johannest at the five lineups, what's interesting is I still will just a Game
two. Yes, I think everyone was in agreement that the Bucks defended well,
even think at Game one they figured stuff out without adjusting as much as
they should have. They did adjust a ton in Game two, so I
think Budd deserves credit for that as well. That might just be the bare
minimum credit, but he has done some tinkering with the way that they're defending,
how aggressive they've been with their picking row coverages, how high broke Lopez
is is coming up, and so changes like that matter. Jannis at the
five is not about the defense. The Suns haven't been scoring Milwaukee off the
floor, and if they are, it's because they're shot making absurd. It's
about the offense and can you unlock something there with you know, especially with
Janni's doing so much of his damage in a half court during Game two,
because I do think that knee is still an issue when it comes to him
getting out in transition. Can you do more for you as a screener or
it's just you know, by virtue of having Jannis at the five, you
are more versatile because you're probably gonna have you'll have Drew and Chris Middleton that
lineup. I think the problem with those combinations are they're a lot less attractive
when Dante DiVincenzo doesn't exist, Pat Connaughton and Brent Forbes. Is that due
it for you? I guess it should on offense, but there could be
really issues on defense. So a couple more No, it's from the chat
Noah says, but but also doesn't adjust, So there's that, but it's
still stubborn. But as I mentioned, I do think he's at least done
better job adjusting pretty much this year. That criticism is of course fair,
though. Steve says, I actually think they did adjust several different times with
CP three, and Book just had an answer for every adjustment. Also,
but is really living advice personnel. I agree with that too. And you
know CP three and Devin Book are you know, cooking like their shot making,
and look, he's not even them when they're getting rid of the ball.
You could very clearly see that the game plan was like, Hey,
we're gonna make some of the Sun's others beat us. Michael Bridges is gonna
beat you. This isn't just someone who shoots threes. And it's the same
story with Jake Crowder. They'll put the ball on the floor. When it
comes to Michael Bridges, he gets like a little mid range game. Now,
Noah says, I'm telling you Holiday Forbes, Middleton, Portis, Janis.
I haven't looked to see how much time this line up has gotten in
this series. I'm probably not a lot, just based off how much Portis
and Forbes have played in general. I would just be I'd be already defensively
with Forbes and Portis in the floor. At the same time. I know
portis played well on defense in the Hawks series in the Eastern Conference Finals.
Phoenix is just it's different. They're different. They're built to really just fuck
up everything, and that I think at this point it's not even yet Phoenix
is Steve notes they're built to hunt, but Phoenix is built to beat you
in all sorts of different ways. I feel like I'm painting this as the
Bucks have no hope, and I think they've shown that in Game two and
even in Game one, like that was a single digit game or fourth quarter.
Their offense it needs to get going and they will have a chance.
Like that's been the bigger struggle is even the guys who've been targeted on defense
have not been compromising the game for them. It's that you've either had one
of your only one of your three best players playing well on offense, where
there's the Drew Holiday struggle Chris Middleton playing well for like I feel like a
half of this series so far, So that's going to be the difference and
if you're going to avoid a three to zero hole. And again I'm dating
this incredibly, but this was a great conversation with you guys. It's because
too at least two of your stars had to go off if you're in Milwaukee,
and I'm assuming one of them is your honest because like he is,
he's a Bellweather in his own way. If he's going to shoot eleven of
eighteen from fallon, you probably feel decently about your chances of winning. But
he's also the guy Middleton is show and he's capable of this. Drew holiday
Lesto. He's the guy that will go out and clear forty plus and have
that absolute dominant game. Steve has a question about Drew to follow up Kim's
question. Has Drew always been the guy we're seeing in the playoffs and just
wasn't on a big stage or see underperforming to what he has historically been.
So I think in New Orleans at large, I don't want to they were
out of the playoffs so much with him there. I don't want to say
he was a contributing factor, but him being cast as basically a number one
because the offense had to run through him more than it did Anthony Davis,
it did show his limitations. That being said, yea, his longest stint.
I mean, he only made the playoffs twice in New Orleans, So
we're not working with a huge sample size there to begin with actual he played
more playoff games with the Sixers eighteen than he did with the Pelicans twelve.
But during the nine game playoff run for New Orleans in twenty seventeen twenty eighteen,
he really was a boss. He's got sixty percent on two's in that
campaign. Then get to the foul line a ton and that's never really been
his game. But you have that on top of the initiation that he does
provide with his defense, it becomes, you know, absolutely huge. So
I would say, I don't even know that we could say he's underperforming relative
to what we've seen. There was always the level of offensive seesawess from Drew
Holiday. I would say he's underperforming relative to the situation he's in right now,
where you have two other guys next to you, both of whom can
generate offense. Where Anthony gave us spectacular player. He grew as time went
on, but he's more of a play finisher than he's going to be a
playmaker. Noah asked if the Bucks lose, is this season a success.
I'm going to say yes, because you made the finals and you kept you
honest on that five year contract and you extended Drew Holiday, so the core
of your roster is intact. There is the element of would they have been
better off at Kevin Durant split been behind the line, they lose that series,
Boonholzer gets fired, you change up the coach, move on from there.
I'll listen to that argument, But what I want to point out is
that this could technically be their best chance at winning a championship, not just
by virtue of them being in the finals at all, but if you just
look at the landscape of the league, is Brooklyn always going to be that
unhealthy when it matters most Maybe, but you can't guarantee that. I mean,
they definitely have the personnel where it's James Harden been an ironman, but
because he's been an iron man for so long, he's almost overdue for these
hamstring type issues. Kevin Durant has the achilles issue. They were definitely cautious
in the regular season when he was dealing with lower loom injuries. And Kyrie
just always has stuff. It never seems like it's a chronic, reoccurring injury.
Necessarily, it's just stuff. Is Philly gonna have this version of the
team where yeah, you could probably count on Joel Embiid being banged up throughout
the course of the year, but he still magnificently during the playoffs. What's
the Ben Simmons situation. He can't be any worse even if they keep him
offensively in the playoffs. There are teams that are up and coming. The
Hawks. They're a team that I think there's the danger of, oh,
do you read too much into this season because you made the conference finals.
At the same time, they're flexible and they were missing their own guys.
They didn't really have Cam Reddish for most of the postseason, and then he
flashes something in that Game six loss with his shot making. DeAndre Hunter was
really good this year when he actually played. The problem was he barely played.
And they do. They have the means to make trades just because of
their picks their prospects. But if they're just healthier, they're a team that's
on the rise. I think you can almost guarantee that one of, if
not both of Boston and Miami are going to be better next season. Healthier,
hopefully especially for Boston, though they will Jaylen Brown coming back from that
injury. The East is going to be tougher, is all I'm saying.
And look, you don't know whether the Toronto Rafters are gonna land there.
They are a better team than their records showed if they keep it together,
whether or not they bring back Kyle Lowry, and if they bring Kyle Lowry,
you could throw them into the phone. Do the Knicks get better or
there's they just as good? They're are wild cards. But I think you
look at the East right now between Atlanta and Miami, Boston, Philly,
Brooklyn, and just knowing what happened in some of those teams this season,
this might be Milwaukee's best chance at winning a title. I don't know that
it makes it a failure if they don't, but it's something to look at
moving forward because they are so limited in what they can do. I don't
know what the move is for them, and I spend time trying to figure
it out. Talked about it on a previous podcast. Do you do you
know the framework of a deal that well, Steves? Is there any chance
the Bucks could go after Kyle Lowry? It would have to be via sign
and trade, and they don't really have the money to get there. And
even if they do, then they're hardcapped, which that would just be if
you have Drew on a max deal, Middleton on a max deal, Yannis
on a max deal, and Kyle Lowry at twenty million a year, that's
really tough. I think a move that's more doable for them is can they
do something where you're exchanging brook Lopez some salary filler is a number thirty one
or thirty two in the draft, whatever they are, Evencenzo's in an extension
year, like that's your package with money and assets. Harrison Barnes was like
the best player I came up with. And if you believe that you can
get a couple of centers on the cheap who are really good, I think
Harry Harrison Barnes help you a bunch come playoff time. Another guy who can
generate his own shot, helps you unlock some of the smaller ball combinations,
and then it's gonna give you a solid positional defender. And if you wind
up replacing PJ. Tucker's minutes with Harrison barnes minutes, it's a huge upgrade.
But then you're in a situation where you've traded Brook Lopez, you are
a lot smaller. Is it worth giving up both Brooke and Dante Devincenzo to
get Harrison Barnes. I think it might be a more iffy on Brook than
I am Donte Devincenzo, because one of how well Brook Lopez is defended during
a good portion of these playoffs and two and also scored inside the arc,
just positioning himself to get those passes from ju Holiday and scoring really easily.
But don't think Devencenzo the injury he's in a contract or your next year,
how much you're gonna pay him. I do think he's good, probably not
someone that everyone really knows of to my but a chaser on defense, he
can handle the ball a little bit and run point guard on offense. Three
point shooting has always been like so so, but that's you know, he's
better than Jeff T. Is a lot better than Jeff T. But when
you're thinking about his next deal, I think I would probably do the Harrison
Barnes route. But I don't you know, are they willing to pay that
much to their top four guys at that point They're gonna need to either mind
some gems on the trade market or really hit home runs in free agency with
will they even use their tax players mid level this year. I think you
have to. You're obligated to Ifiannas is there. But who can you get
for that? Like who's going to Milwaukee over at Brooklyn if they're offering the
same money, or even in one of the LA teams. So they're going
to be fascinating to watch. I do think what they probably need is another
shot creator who's not as much of a liability on defense. So and it
doesn't so I know when we say shot creator, we automatically assume they need
to be high end. I would say, like a Brin Forbes level offensive
player who's just isn't as targetable on defense. And they they need to still
diversify their front court rotation, probably another bigger wing who is higher volume on
offense than than PJ. Tucker. So like that, like that route,
but those are those are hard things to get when you have very few assets
and no cap space. Steve says, shows how much the Sun's kind of
struck old with campaign. They picked him out of nowhere and he turned into
a big rotation guy. Yeah, and now they're going to risk losing him
because they only have his early bird rights. And I assume that he'll have
opportunities to play more elsewhere, especially if Chris Paul returns to Phoenix. But
that those are if you're a really good team, those are the kinds of
moves that you need to make on the margins to really expand your rotation.
And the Suns did it with Torrey Craig picking up Tory Craig. That's someone
the Bucks had. Why weren't they applying him more? That's certainly up for
debate, but like that's the type of stuff that you need, or even
picking up an abduel Nador who gave him a good regular season minutes in the
trade for Chris Paul being a team that wooed Jay Crowder. Those I would
call them doubles. The Jay Crowder move might be closer to triple at this
point, giving on valuable he's becomes to them. But that's what the Bucks
need to do, is can they really find the perfect fit with their mid
level or is it going to be spent on bringing back Bobby Portis, who
they don't have his bird rights. Everyone assume he's going to decline his player
option, and now you've seen that there are matchups where he's just not gonna
play a ton as valuable as he was to you against Atlanta. So it's
the Bucks are going to have a pretty tough offseason. But I think,
look, yea, Tanasis is the Honest's brother. If you honest wants him
there, I get it, Like I'm not gonna fight that, but yeah,
it's Tory Greig is better than Tanasis. Attend to COOPO. He does
bring you. Tanasis gives you a ton of energy on defense, but I
just don't know what he provides you on offense. Let's try and move away
from the finals. Although I guess this is tan gently related from the finals.
This question was not a mail bad question. It was sent to me
directly via my DMS. Raoul Clement asked about a basically a twenty eighteen NBA
redraft. He said, it's sort of related to my suggestion for redraft pot
above. Where do you have eighton in a twenty eighteen redraft? I think
Luca Tray and SGA are the top three. Where does eight and fall in
comparison to MPJ, Jaren Jackson Junior and Michael Bridges The name that I might
be most interested in to see, like what happens in a twenty eighteen redraft
could be Michael Bridges. I am not gonna lie about that, just because
that dude's gonna get paid. And a good barometer for how much someone was
watching the NBA this year might be whether they how well they react to that.
But so yeah, so those names, I think it's Luca still goes
one. In that scenario, I'm taking Trey over Shakkil Just Alexander, though
still it's very close. Shakil Just Alexander is third for me, so rale
will laid that out perfectly. Luca, Tray and SGA would round out the
top three. It gets interesting here, I think, I think you.
I think it's eight at four. MPJ has a real case here, But
the back issues really worry me. But man, the efficiency on offense and
this dude you can't like actually defend him. He can shoot over the top
of anybody. If he ever gets to a point where he's putting the ball
on the floor more and even setting up his teammates, that's probably an next
frontier for him. The thing that's made it so difficult for me when I
was thinking about this to not take Michael Porter Junior is he really actually improved
on defense this year and did more stuff as a you know, a week
side helper being around the rim. I don't think he's ever gonna be a
lockdown one on one defender, but it's a it's a big deal if he's
just not a complete zero on defense. I still think we need to see
more of a facilitation role from him, and so since DeAndre and I think
him be a good back line defender and be the anchor of a really good
defense. Yeah, he's still trying to figure out how to vacillate between two
different types of modes. I would say, when you're in the half court,
it's there's the you know, leaving your spot, knowing when to do
that, but also knowing when not to leave your man. Those are things
that he still needs to figure out. I think it's him though. After
that, I'm going Michael Porter Junior at five. I Jaren Jackson Junior's tough.
As of right now, I'm taking Michael Bridges over him. You give
me a wing who is all defense caliber. I absolutely think Michael Bridges should
have made All MBA. I'm sorry, all defense this year. You give
me the opportunity to put that on a roster, it's more than a three
D wing because he can't put the ball on the floor. Like I said
before, he has that little bit of a mid range game after him.
That's when I'd throw Jaren Jackson Junior in there. There was no one else
that I thought of that would really compete for that. Once you get out,
I mean maybe a Colin Sexton might be And we have a question about
con Sexton, so that might be a good segue. I think he would
come next for me. By the way, Colin Sexton is after at this
point, what number are we tackling up to? Let me double check heres.
We have Luca, we have Trey, we have Shay, we have
eighton A's four MPGA five, Bridges six, Jaren Jackson Junior seven, Colin
Sexton eight. I might take Colin Sexton over Janeen Jackson Junior at this point
too. The dude is just he's a bucket, and I think he's become
underrated as a scorer somehow. People are probably gonna be concerned about what he
gets in an extension. And I get it if you view him as a
point guard, but he's not a point guard. He's a I think his
passing has improved, at least when he's on the move. It doesn't feel
like he is tunnel vision as much. But if you can get someone who
can score at the level that he can, that's a big freaking deal.
I'm trying. I just look at Jaron Jackson Junior's potential floor spacing at his
position, still moves really well on defense, it's just complete anarchy where he's
still gonna foulton and there's sometimes not a rhyme or reason to it. I'll
go Sexton at seven, Jaren Jackson Junior at eight. Hopefully I'm not reading
too much into this season where he missed pretty much all of it. We
have another draft question, though, and this is a fascinating one. I
mean I spend a lot of time thinking about this from Nick Orman. What
point in the draft teams start to draft for fit versus best player available?
Or should best player available always be a choice? This is just like,
this is a debate that happens every single year, talked about ad nauseum.
I think it gets there's there's a lot to this. But one of my
favorite writers, Yasmin Duale from Basketball News, wrote a big piece on this
exact question this past month, within the past month, I think, and
it is a Steve notes is a philosophy question, but she boiled it down
to and I think this was an important way to close it. Talent can
determine fit, and fit doesn't exclude talent is a lot to really consider there.
Where I sort of lean is I don't when we think about fit.
I do think it matters if you want to take an older rookie because he's
a wing and you need a wing and you think he could contribute right away,
and Michael Bridges might be a perfect example here. I think where fit
becomes a problem or where you're drafting for need, is you go into the
draft and you say, all right, we need we need a big and
we're going to draft a big at number eleven, or we need a point
guard. We're drafting a point guard at number seven. When you get tunnel
vision like that, I would say it's more problematic than any one guiding philosophy.
And I also think it your timeline matters. There's context involved here.
If you're a team that's trying to win, now, do you have time
to gamble on a high upside player just because he's the best talent versus someone
who might be a better fit, fills a need and can contribute right away.
I do think that sort of needs to factor in here too. I
think callous lee I could zoom out and say you always just go for the
best player or who's them the most talented player available, because that's the biggest
swing. You want to go after the best chance of having the highest impact
player for the longest time. That being said, like some of those guys
just don't pan out, and so you need to have really big confidence in
your developmental project and as a front office the job security to make that type
of the swing where you have a speaker request. I believe I'll get to
that in a second. But Joseph Briggs said, yeah, that's a philosophy
question. Steve said, it seems that it's somewhat comes down to how good
your team is. If you don't have to it, you don't have top
and talent, you need as many shots as possible. Yeah, I would
definitely agree with that. I think the team that could really one of the
teams I could define this is and maybe it's not. And the other thing
that goes into this here is what is considered the best player available. Let's
look at this draft class where it's Evan Mobile, Kig Cunningham, Jalen Suggs,
and Jalen Green. So if you're drafting one through four, and maybe
you're the Raptors at four, you're taking who's ever left over in that situation,
regardless of fit, because it's just deemed that they are the topest then
talent, unless again, you're thinking about trading that pick. It gets a
little bit difficult when you're moving on to subsequent picks and it's oh, does
Scotty Barnes belong at number six? So I think the note from Joseph is
the best one is that it is a philosophy question. I don't know that
there's one size fits all. When it comes through a team, it matters
about their situation, matters about their timeline, the jobs during the front office
where they are I think more importantly in their competitive timeline those I just mentioned
is more important than anything. But I just you know, even if you
draft who is ever deemed the best player at that time, and maybe it's
the best player by a landslide, you could you could screw that player up.
They could be a terrible fit for your roster. If they need to
have the ball in their hands and you don't have spacing around them and there's
a ton of other ball handlers on your roster, that's not the best situation
for them to be in. So you know, it might be like,
imagine if the Sixers of last year just drafted Ben Simmons onto their team.
Is like he would or like he would very clearly be the best player in
that available in theory in that twenty twenty draft, But how good is he
to that team because his fit is so wonky there. So that's a fact.
It's a fascinating question. I absolutely love it, and I just think
that it's always going to athlete. I don't know that you can just subscribe
to one of those theories. We do have a speaker request from bus boy
KP, so I'm going to throw you the mic. Let us know what's
on your mind, bus boy KP, bus boy KP, are you there
all right? If you come back, feel free to request speaking again.
Steve notes in the chat, development is never guaranteed. Yeah, I think
that's you know, it's perfect, And I think you could also look like
a Devin Booker doesn't fall in the lottery because people didn't think he was like
they passed on the best player available. Like there's where Tyler heroes and falling
the lottery, Like there are just teams that might not think they're the best
player available. We do have another speaker request. This one is from Joseph.
Joseph, I'm handing you the mic. How's it going, Joseph,
It's going great. I may have come in a little late for you talking
about Bucks and Sons, but I wanted to incorporate what you're talking about with
the finance a little bit, just talking about bledsoe versus Holiday. You know
the Holiday contract is I mean, you can see it as obscene. I
live in Wisconsin. I've been a Bucks fan for thirty years, had to
endure the nineties Bulls. But you know, Holiday is exponentially better than Plezzo
and so kind of weathering the storm here. The Bucks don't have a ball
handler, so they need a true ball handler. I mean, Jannis is
handling the ball. I guess my question is do you kind of, you
know, going into the draft, do the Bucks look to get a pure
ball handler, even if kind of off the radar. That's kind of where
I'm at right now with the Bucks Winn or Lewis. Yeah, and I
don't know if you're here for that, But I said, Drew Holiday,
still, even as poorly as he's been playing, he is you picked through
Holliday over at Bletso right now one hundred times out of one hundred, just
what he brings defensively and then defenses at least still care about through Holidays where
they just they didn't care at all all about Eric Bletso. I agree with
your point that they do need I guess you could argue it's a primary ball
handler. I don't know that you would necessarily go after someone in that mold
just because you are going to have the ball so much in a holiday Middleton
or Yannis's hands. I don't know that I would take a shot. I
mean, yeah, go ahead and take a shot in the draft, but
realistically, what is your second round pick, even though it's you call it
a fringe first rounder at that point, given where they're given, where they're
seated, how likely is he to contribute in year one? How likely see
to get a chance in year one? It would be something for them to
consider. I think what they're going to need to do is figure out a
way to hit it via free agency? Is there someone that falls through the
cracks there? And when you look at the names of like there are free
agent point guards, but all of them virtually just fall out of the Buck's
range. And like, let's not even forget about the stars like Kyle Lowry,
Chris Paul and Mike Conley. Spencer Dinwoody would be great for this team
out of their price range. I don't really know what Dennis Strueter would be
for this team. He's gonna be out of their price ranginge anyway, I
wouldn't want to be the team that pays him. Personally, DeVante Graham out
of your price range, probably because he's gonna get at least the full non
text players mid level, which you're probably not working with. You know,
if Gore and drogets his team option is declined, he's probably gonna get at
least ten million a year. Can you get yourself. I mean, I'm
just trying to look at names that you could get involved with for the mini
mid level, and the options are just not like great, I don't know,
you know, minimid levels not even gonna entice Reggie Jackson. At this
point, the Clippers would one hundred percent. They can and will pay him
more than that based on the early bird rights that they have. Is a
Patty Mills doing it for you? A campaign would be great, but they're
not going to be able to afford him either. They might have to look
at trades and it might be a scenario where you know, and you have
to be mindful of actually what type of players are available because you're not working
with Yeah, in theory and I'm not saying they should do this even if
they could, maybe you can go out and get Kemba Walker for free from
ok see, just because you're willing to send out the money. They just
don't have the money at this point in contracts to do something like that.
So you have to go after like a player who's mediumly priced and might even
be just lower priced or or below market. And those players can be they're
tough to find, and it's you know, you start getting into names like
Okay, well like a Thomas said Ransky if he's a free agent or if
the Bulls make him available, should they guarantee a salary? Is that someone
that you're considering. I do think if you're Milwaukee, you might have some
tools to pull off a sign and trade. But as I mentioned at the
top of this, I don't they're not a team that I can envision working
with within the hardcap. A team like them in Philadelphia, like, that's
really tough for them. You can maybe pick up like a Trey Burke from
Dallas, but that doesn't come back to Joseph's primary point, which I think
is a fair one. You probably need someone who's closer to a primary setup
man at this point. If there was, I don't know how much he's
gonna cost. I guess it's more the TJ McConnell could end up working for
this roster, Like that's someone who could really help them. I don't know
where they necessarily find that guy, though, because they aren't a tough situation,
I would definitely be in support of them taking a swing in the draft.
And as someone who has not begun his you know, neck deep draft
pre prep work yet, I just don't know who's going to be available to
you in the second round to make an impact. And so you know,
does Derek Rose called through the cracks on free agency, He probably helps you
a little bit. But the you know, they're not a ton of options
out there for Milwaukee, and I think they're more likely probably to address it
effectively on the trade market. Just when you look at the free agents available,
but most of them are going to command unless someone agrees to, you
know, I think a go on Drags would be an example of, oh,
I just want to the Heat. They decided to opt for cap space,
got rid of decline his team option, and he just decides, you
know what, I want to be on a team that's that will play me,
and that's really close to and on the verge of a title. There
just aren't a lot of guys out there like that. Even if it was
Patty Mills, I don't think Patty Mills is a primary ball handler. He's
like a you know, he's an upgrade over Brent Forbes, certainly, but
he's not gonna he's gonna be targeted on defense himself. So that was a
great question, Joseph, Did you have anything you wanted to add to that
before I remove your you're speaking privileges. That was a terrific answer. Thank
you for that. I just I just want to add, you know,
a sweep versus the Bucks going six or seven, maybe that sways someone.
You know, it's a players league. If they go six or seven,
maybe they can convince someone to come. That's all I have. Thank you,
thanks, thanks so much for stopping by. Joseph. Uh yeah,
and look a name that I'd be interested for them to try for or two
of them really, and I don't these players might be more expensive than the
bus can afford. I would love lou Will in Milwaukee. Someone's gonna get
targeted on defense, but he's he's not a true point guard, but he
can run, pick and roll to death and you can envision him. He
helped in Lanta out for stretches orn Alec Burks, where it's someone who's comfortable,
you know, being a secondary guy if you're orn Austin Rivers, even
if you're not. And I guess my point here is if you're not going
to get the primary guy, hit a homer on the secondary guy that you're
that you're really going to go after. So yeah, I'm going to be
fascinated. And a lot will depend on You're right, Joseph. How they
end this series. I'm assuming it's not going to be a sweep based off
of making his age is extremely poorly, but my guests would be it is
not a sweep just based off what I've seen in Games one and two.
So we'll have to We'll have to wait and see. There. Let's get
to a another question here that we have ruminating. Namboo asked what should we
expect from Celtics's new head coach m Udoka. Udoka has been involved in a
lot of head coaching hires. Well, excuse me, he's been a head
coaching candidate many times before. I think the thing that people are immediately gonna
gratate too is you spent a lot of time in the Spurst system. You
know, he's defensive focus and that's similar to Brad Stevens. And I think
that's good because Boston did fall off defensively this year, and you want a
coach who can maximize your defensive talent without necessarily getting a huge talent infusion.
And Boston is not really in a position to get a huge talent infusion.
They do have Al Horford, and you know, maybe they should bring back
up Infya, but he's not going to help you defensively. He might be
in someone who can install principles that allows them to overachieve on defense. Also,
based off what I've read, Rudy Guey said this as well. So
and he obviously spent time with Udoka in San Antonio. He holds players more
accountable than Brad Stevens. Is how people would frame it, because Brad Stevens
was sort of the silent type and that maybe was more of like a public
persona. But I think with the number of times we heard stuff emanating from
the locker room in Boston or the year before they kind of blew it up,
was that it seems like forever ago was that twenty nineteen eighteen two nineteen
season, how tough it was for them to navigate the season with so many
contract to your guys on on their roster. It might be fair to say
that he's not much of a disciplinarian. And I'm not saying you need this
rigid force in charge. It is a players league and you need to be
fungible, adaptable, malluable. But Ruge said, and this is per Stadium's
Jeff Goodman. He won't tell a player what he wants to hear him,
won't back down from anyone. He's got the perfect balance. He'll laugh and
joke, but knows how to be serious. And so if he's able to
strike that hedge like a like Greg Popovich has done a lot in San Antonio.
You've given him at least the top end talent when fully healthy. Anyway,
in Jason Tatum and Jalen Brown, if you keep Marcus smart, and
you know, maybe even Al Horford, that might be the quintessential guy where
it's wow, Al Horford? Do we consider him for all defense next season?
Just because of what he did in Boston? I'm exaggerating, but maybe
this is just a like, it's that type of coaching hi IT teams.
He's also for anyone who cares the first Nigerian NBA head coach, So that
is pretty cool. Let's find some other questions here, and if anyone has
ones, you can still feel free to throw them in the chat. I
will get to them. We have another question from Gilliard mirandum. He essentially
asked him rewording this because which teams beat upon who shot fifty percent on threes
while making at least fifteen threes in that game's only in the playoffs? Interesting
question obviously, it is, you know, somewhat topical, but it has
happened now four five times on record in the playoffs. The teams to make
at least fifteen threes while shooting fifty percent on them and losing. Were the
Dallas Mavericks this season May twenty eighth against the Clippers. Last year in the
playoffs, Utah did it against Denver and lost. They lost by quite a
bit too. Then in twenty eighteen, Denver did it against the Spurs and
lost by ten eighteen to one oh eight. Then in twenty sixteen, Detroit
did it against Cleveland. They lost by five, so it was close.
It feels like I don't know, can't believe Detroit was in the playoffs in
twenty and sixteen. It feels like it's been longer than that. And then
it hasn't happened since then. Prior to two thousand and two, Boston hit
fifteen three shot fifteen of thirty and then lost against Philadelphia in the That looks
like it was a first round series of the playoffs. So it's only happened
five times. You're gonna shoot fifty percent from three while making fifteen three pointers,
chances are you're you have a pretty good chance of not losing. So
interesting question. Thank you for it, Billiard. Kyle asked, let's go
to this one first, because it's fairly quick. Lewis Angel Santana asked,
who are the top ten leaders in finals? Pear, I'd rather look at
playoff PR and I'm also not the biggest PR fan, So I did PR
and VORP and I set it at a minimum of five hundred minutes playing throughout
you know their postseason resume history and in PR. Let's I'll read off the
top five, the top five in PR right now in NBA history in the
playoffs, but number five hundred total minutes postseason played. Michael Jordan is one
twenty eight point six, George mike In eight point five is two, Lebron
is three at twenty eight point two. Anthony Davis checking in at four.
Low volume of playoff appearances helps him there twenty seven point seven, and then
Yo Kich twenty seven five, Shaq is six, Hakim is seven, eight
is Jannis, nine is Durant, and ten is good old reliable Tim Duncan.
The top ten leaders in postseason VORP again minimum five hundred post seasons played.
Lebron leads that by a quite a large margin. He's at number one.
Michael Jordan's number two, again by quite a large margin over everybody else.
It starts to get closer where you look at Tim Duncan is three,
Magic is four, Kobe is five, Lowry Bird is six, Shack is
seven, Scottie Pippen is eight, Kadi is nine, ten is Kareem.
The reason I would just prefer vourp Pier, by the way, for anyone
that cares is prs just gonna reward volume a lot more. And just given
the pace of play in the NBA today, that's why you saw so many
modern day guys in the top ten of that first one. So just a
little fun fact there. Let's get back to the question from Kyle. Is
there any statistical way to justify paying Colin Sexton one hundred plus million dollars for
anyone who's curious. The initiation here is probably one because there's been rumors that
maybe the Cavaliers would consider trading Colin Sexton. And the impetus behind that is
two, he is extension eligible. And you get into this situation where you
have these guys and rookie scale deals. From a team perspective, it's easier
to build around them, enjoy them. You don't need as definitive results because
they're so cheap. They're on those scale deals for a minimum of four years,
or you have team control over them. I should say for a minimum
of four years. Colin Sexton, now you're in Cleveland, they're still not
good. You also up Darius Garland on the roster. He profiles more as
your lead ball handler. You have the number three pick in this year's draft,
or you're gonna wind up with a joln Green or a jail In Suggs
in that situation complicating you're pecking letter a little bit more there and how much
is con Sexton going to command? Fair question? So looking at and look,
this is whatever you think of Colin Sexton, the numbers are just they
jump off the page. He average over twenty points for games a sophomore this
past season, though his third year twenty four point three points, four point
four assists, thirty seven point one percent on threes, fifty point eight percent
on twos, and he's not just hitting all these easy looks. So that
you know that level of efficiency matters. And this is quite company to keep.
And this is here's the stat that's going to I guess justify you if
you wanted to paying Colin Sexton one hundred million dollars over I'm assuming you're saying
a five year deal you can make one hundred over four because that's below is
max. Still, but only eleven other players last season averaged over twenty points
while downing more than fifty percent of their twos, and excuse me, average
twenty four points while downing over fifty percent of their twos and thirty seven percent
of their threes. The company is eleven players. Sounds like a lot,
but then you read the players Joel Embiid, Kevin Durant, Dame Karl,
Anthony Town's contexts and of course Kawai, Nicoleoki, Steph Gurry, Zach Lvie
and Jayson Tatum, Jalen Brown, Kyriering. That's an absurd company to keep.
And also when you look at the frequency with which these guys get to
the line, con Sexton was fifth in free throw attempt rade, behind only
Kat Dame Kadi and Joel Embiid, So that's something to consider. And I
don't know what his actual extension number will be this summer. It would not
surprise me. I will one, if they don't reach an extension, they
prefer to kick the can down to restrict the free agency. But two,
I would think this is someone who I don't maybe twenty four points and four
assists on this efficiency isn't what it used to be. If he's getting less
than eighteen million dollars a year, and I actually think that might be on
the lower end, I would just be really surprised. And there are if
that's the offer the Cows present to him, Let's say it's something like four
eighty five one hundred. Maybe he signs it, but you might, if
you're him, want to roll the dice. On cap space teams in twenty
twenty two, there's always this implicit should agreement, implicit mandate that you're going
to overpay or come out with these huge bids for restricted free agents because that's
the single best way to poach them. These teams aren't just gonna let free
agents worth of damn leave it just it doesn't. It doesn't work like that.
So I think that's the justification. I think the right team can pay
him that much money and be okay, And I think coll Sex is a
really good player. I also do not think that the Cavaliers are that team
full stop. I just don't think they're there yet. Let's get to these
last two quick questions. Yet this one. I'm assuming Santria thought maybe I
wouldn't answer it, but he said sexiest NBA player. I mean, it's
got to be like Devin Booker or Kelly Bray Jr. I don't know,
like who else is the I don't know what the other candidates would be,
but the one of those would be my pick and former teammates at this point.
Final question, though, is I think it's a question that's on a
lot of people's minds. The Box End one fantastic website run by a friend
of the podcast, actually Adam Spinella. Where is Reggie Jackson going? Or
more importantly, who's going to back up the brigstruck for him? Now?
Reggie Jackson's case in free agency and I'm sorry, cap geekery really gets me
going. But Reggie Jackson's situation with the Clippers is a fragile I would say,
just because they do have early bird rights on him. But early birdwrights
have their limitations. So what they can do in essence is forget about the
raise. I think it's one hundred and ninety percent or whatever. The can't
remember this at this point, but they can give him a raise off last
year's salary or up to the league average salary before dipping into cap space.
The league average salary right now is projected to fall somewhere between ten and ten
point four million. There's a chance someone gives Reggie Jackson more than that,
and the Clippers don't have capspit like that's it's a little bit more than the
mid level exception, which is cocking it at nine point eight I believe to
start. So maybe he doesn't get that, and maybe he did say at
the end of the postseason, this team saved me, is what he told
them, and so maybe he wants to just come back. He did.
He had the bigger deal, five years, eighty million with Detroit and they
can You know, this is how I thought what Phoenix did, which was
a stroke of genius with Jay Crowder, and I can't believe another team wasn't
willing to do this and wasn't willing to go to four years. They have
him three guaranteed years at the middle level exception. So if you're a team
that wants Reggie Jackson might only want to invest in him for a year or
two. You can separate yourself as the Clippers by saying we'll give you three
years at the full mid level we'll give or rather the raise we can give
you because they're gonna have the minimid level, or we'll give you four years.
Maybe it's three years plus one, like there's a team option on there,
so that would be how they can distinguish themselves. I will be fascinated
though, to see which teams might consider actually going after him, and if
you're we're looking at if there are teams that we're going to say have the
the mid level full let's say the full mid level. If that's the range
he falls into, the Clippers keep him because I would assume that they're gonna
have no coallems about paying him the ten million dollars league average salary. So
you're almost looking for teams that can bid higher or would give him more guarantee
years. So I do think that if you have the non tax players mid
level exception, you're in Reggie Jackson range teams to consider there. Maybe Boston
needs like a secondary point. I mean they got rid of Kemba Walker too,
so there's that to consider. I'm not sure which first of the mid
level they're gonna be working with just yet, or how long they are to
pay a tax, even if they can stay below the apron. That's a
team where would be really interesting. Chicago because use a point guard and it
seems like they want to win. Now, a clarity on that when we
find out, like what's going on with the zach Lavine renegotiate and extend talks.
Dallas would be interesting. They'll have cap space, or if they choose
to operate as an over the cap team, which is possible because they do
have Hardway Junior's cap holed to work with if they want to keep him,
they'll have the mid level probably not. Reggie Jackson isn't the traditional shot creator
that you want alongside Lucadante, but he can run, pick and roll.
I mean, Detroit built a pretty good offense around a healthy Reggie Jackson pick
and roll with with Andre Drummond and whatever you think about Chris stops now,
he's a little bit more dynamic on offense than Andre Drummond. So having someone
to run picking pops with and just so look, just so we're clear,
Reggie Jackson this postseason average seventeen point eight points, three point four assists,
jeff forty point eight percent from three, and fifty eight point two percent from
two. I don't think you expect that to be as new normal, but
when they needed him, he really stepped up, and that's going to be
embedded into people's minds and the reluctance for the Clippers to pay it might just
be we still kind of need Patrick Beverley. Can we move Rondo seven point
five million into cap space and he only played twenty three minutes a game for
US last season? How much are we realistically going to increase that when Kawhi
Leonard is healthy. I would argue there's still plenty of him to increase.
Increase that if you want to play him closer to thirty minutes a game.
He was only at ten point seven points in the regular season, but he
showed now that he's a bet, like he's a good three point shooter.
That was the question for him. I don't know if anyone remembers like when
he was younger, first traded to Detroit while he was with OKAC, and
yeah, he's had some up and down seasons. He shot thirty five point
three thirty five point nine in his first two full seasons with Detroit. In
his final full season, he was at thirty point eight percent, but you
know, including two eighteen, twenty nineteen up till now. He shot thirty
nine point three percent from three and so we're looking at three seasons worth of
samples there, like, this is someone you could count to be catch and
shoot guy, maybe give you some pick and roll and off the drive responsibility.
So that's why I do think he's gonna have a wide market. Also,
if you're a team that really can't afford a star like a Lowry,
or if you don't think Lowry or Conley or CP three is gonna leave,
he's just he or campaign at this point, even though he's not, you
know, cooking necessarily in the finals, they've become interesting options. A team
that would be fascinating is Denver because of the Jamal Murray injury. They do
have Kundo Compazo and Monte Morris. Reggie Jackson offensively would be an upgrade over
either one of those guys. To me, I don't know if they were
going to have full taxa non taxpayermid level to work with, though that depends
on whether Robart knops out. Jamichael Green is a player option. What they
do with Paul millsaps free agent hold that would just be be fascinating there.
The Golden State Warriors could really use him, they can't afford him. Yeah,
the Lakers could actually use Reggie Jackson. They'll be hard pressed though,
to use the non taxpayers mid level. And if you're gonna stay in LA
for the non taxpayers mid level like that type of money, I would guess
you just go back to the Clippers. We already mentioned the Bucks. They
could certainly use them. I just don't project them to have the full MLI
to work with. The Pelicans could probably use him, but they're like weirdly
guard dense, but none of them are proven playmakers or floor spacers. Really,
if you get rid of Eric Bletsoe, you're not bringing a guard back
and that deal. Maybe that's a team that works its way into the discussion.
The Knicks would be a team I would legitimately worry about. They do
seem like a squad where I'm not saying they won't give out multi year contracts
this year, but it's not the year to have this space, and I
think they're gonna wind up prioritizing flexibility over the next you know, for twenty
twenty two free a or twenty twenty three free agency yet they have all this
cap space. Can you offer Reggie Jackson a one plus one that's inflated for
him to come their beer starting point guard, because that's the spot you could
give him like those, that's the Alpha Payton spot readily available. You know,
would they give him fifteen million just for the one season like they did
with Marcus Morris last year? It's possible. Would they even guarantee him two
years just that you know? Is this a three year, thirty nine million
dollars situation with two of those years guaranteed. That's something that I could see
them doing. Philly could really use him, They just don't have a pathway
to get to him. Phoenix would be interesting, but I don't know why
you want to move on from him for campaign. I do think paying provides
a little bit more off the dribble juice for Phoenix. Portland doesn't invest in
backup point guards, probably can't afford him anyway. That really might be it?
Maybe San Antonio if they are depending on how much they want to win
next year, they'll have cap space and Dejante Murray Derek White even if they
premut them. Rosen is proven it can be an engine they need like a
playmaker, a primary playman crew can also shoot threes, and they just don't
have that right now. Reggie Jackson can be that. I don't think Toronto
would get involved, maybe if Kyle Lowry leaves, but a Van Fleet Reggie
Jackson starting back court is I mean, it's tiny even so with Lowry Evan
Fleet, but the defense you're getting from Jackson is nowhere near what you're getting
from nowhere near what you're getting from Kyle Lowry. Of course, I would
also make a case for Washington if they do need sort of a you know,
someone to upgrade over like you know how how Will Netto gave him great
minutes, but not as offense first player is Smith? Is not? It?
So, Reggie Jackson, if you're gonna use your mid level on someone
and you're you're you're not trading Bradley Beale. I guess there's something to be
said though about using your best spending tool on another guard when you're already burning
like eighty million dollars or whatever it is on your backcourt. And Bradley Beal
and Russell Westbrook, if there are no other questions in the chat, I
will wrap us up. This was a lot of fun. I hope you
all enjoyed the solo talk for me until next time. Remember we're hardwoo Knox.
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