What is track lacking Hardwodox listeners, I am damp belly coming out. You
would out my fantabulous co host, Adam Bommel. I am, however,
super pleased to be joined by a longtime friend and colleague and frequent best Grant
Hughes from Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter at GT Underscore Hughes. We
actually have him coming on for two pods this week, the first of which
is going to be our Conference finals previews. We get into Maps Warriors and
Heat Celtics. Of course, usual housekeeping knows before we get started. Please
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single one of you for listening. Without further delay, let's get into our
Conference Finals preview with Bleacher Reports Grant Hughes, Grant, welcome back to the
Hardward Outs Podcast. It's been a minute, by the standards to which you
normally come on, the frequency to which you normally come on. We're gonna
dive into lots of talk, but first and foremost, how the heck are
you? I'm doing great. I'm sure that the extended hiatus is my fault.
I probably had to tell you I couldn't do it a couple of times.
But it's a it's a it's a good stretch right now for Grants because
and it doesn't happen often. Because Grant Williams went off, We're going to
talk about that eventually, but uh, you know, it's always nice when
one of the few really does the name proud. So shout out to Grant
Williams. First thing on this one. I thought you were gonna say,
it's a good day for Grant two because the Warriors are in the conference finals
and favorites to make it out of the conference finals. Well that's all.
That's Uh, that's a giving, that's but we're not talking about me.
We're going to talk about the other Grants and the other players that are actually
playing in these series and instead of me, that's just watching them happily in
the case of the Warriors. Yeah, so let's dig into We'll start with
Warriors MAVs. That is. I wouldn't call it the more compelling one.
They're both. These series are compelling, and they just are a reminder how
much I was wrong about this season. I missed on the MAVs, like
on multiple occasions because I just didn't buy into anything. And here they are
sitting in the Conference finals, where I spent all this time like thinking about
their roster construction, how they can get better, and there's a real chance
that they're just going to be in the NBA Finals. So starting just off
with this series, like, what are your like, what is the like
the biggest overarching thing you're thinking about heading into the Western Conference Finals. I
mean, I think, just taking it from the Warriors perspective, it's what
do you do with Luca? And and I think I guess it's a it's
a it's definitely a benefit even though this is a different Warriors team than years
past. But like they've seen you know, peak James Harden in series and
beating them. They've seen peak Lebron, Like, they're not this this idea
of there's a transcendent offensive player that kind of just carries this whole team and
seems unstoppable. That's not a new experience for a lot of the principles on
the Warriors. But the scary thing I think for them is that Luca just
a sort of an evolved version of Harden, because he's just I mean,
Harden wasn't, you know, threatening triple doubles all the time. He was
sort of a guy that you you know, you learn the basics of,
you know, keep your hands up, don't foul him, make him try
to score. Luca, I think just it's crazy to say, but Luca
seems like a more complete offensive player than Harden was, and maybe that's doing,
you know, Key Harden a disservice, Yeah, an elimination, give
it just the guy just doesn't have bad games. It seems like when it
matters that, if you're trying to draw distinctions between Luca and Harden, that's
the big one. But how they defend him, you know they can't.
You can't trap him, you can't double him. He's gonna hunt switches and
try to just cook Curry or pool or almost you know, or get a
big out, try to get come on Looney when he's in the game,
which probably won't be that much, But that's the big What do you do?
What do you do with him? And how do you slow him down?
Or do you just let him get fifty and stay home on everybody else?
I don't know. I think that's going to be the real kind of
the pivot point of the series. That would be among my biggest questions for
the Warriors entering this. And I think it hurts that I don't think Gary
Payton the Second is expected to play because I imagine that he would end up
being a pretty b part of even if not going after Luca primarily because of
the size difference, just having someone else there if you were going to run
traps or just to make sure that like you're you're stamping out the other actions
other players on the MAVs offense. And then even just I guess Otto Porter
Junior is supposed to be fine, Like I have to imagine, he looms
pretty large in this series. And I think my actual biggest question for them
was based off what the Mavericks are doing. And I think what we know
the Mavericks are going to do and the way that they play. Is this
a series where it's like Golden State needs to play big where we're gonna see
a lot of Looney and dre or is it when where they need to play
small? Because Dallas's most successful lineups have just ostensibly been the five out ones
where they're not you know, MAXI Cleeveland is not really a small but he's
he's a seventh point, He's not really a small ball five. But have
that five outiness and to go up against that, I guess, like Cavan,
like Looney and Draymond, that's fine to do, but if you did
want to downsize, that would probably increase the importance of Otto Porter Junior even
more. And my final thing there would be, is this even a you
know what do they called the liquid death lineup? Is that a series for
this one? Because they you know, they those five you know, pomp
and circumstance in the first round, and then we go in the second round,
they play thirty two minutes. They win those minutes by a total of
three points, shoot like twenty one percent from three during that stretch, And
so I'm just has the novelty of it worn off? And then also how
does it sort of match up against a Mavericks team where if Lucas on the
floor, like he'll hunt, like he'll go hon ding against that lineup?
Yeah, for sure, I think I think one one benefit. So I
think Looney will play, but he's only gonna play if Dwight Powell's in the
game. Probably, I think that's how it's going to start. I think
if you have him, look like Looney is a better perimeter defender than most
like quote unquote conventional bigs, even though he's even really kind of undersized in
that role. So him getting switched out onto don Chich I think is like
actually less of a five alarm fire. It's like a two alarm fire,
whereas Pool is a full like send all the engines. That's a huge problem.
He has no chance. So Luny might play a little bit. But
I think you know, you're talking about how the Pool party lineup thing like,
you know, fluctuates an effectiveness over these couple of series. I do
think it's a benefit that the Warriors can play a little bigger which they had
to down in those last couple of games against Memphis. You know, they
can play Luney and Green together. That's an option they can sort of.
It would be great. We didn't mention andre Iguodala. I think it's it's
kind of like you've got a smirk when you say it, because he just
just doesn't play anymore. But if you could get ten minutes of him in
the game, I don't think Don Chitch is gonna just run over him.
So that' that'd be another guy along with Porter or Peyton. Peyton, I
don't think it's gonna play Porter will so they can get real switchy and long.
With Curry out there still, Wiggins will take the bulk of the minutes
on Don Chitch. I think Clay can hold up a little bit. But
yeah, they're gonna have to mix and match, and this might be a
series. As I start to kind of talk it out in my head where
which seems to happen with the Warriors, they don't quite figure out what the
best way to do things are until like Game four or five. And fortunately
they have kind of the pieces too, you know, once they figure out
what that best thing to do is, they can do it that they have
enough line of versatility. I think Cominga might even get some individual time on
don Chich. They keep giving them chances and he keeps not doing much with
him, but just his athleticism is another thing. They might even play his
own. I don't know, but yeah, like I think we did see
with Yokich for example against the Nuggets, the Warriors kind of let Yoki score
and I think they're comfortable with that. And that is how they've tended to
deal with superstar offensive engines is just try to limit the other guys and don't
make him, you know, don't give him the easy passes for wide open
shots for the rest of the guys to get them gone. So it's gonna
take a committee approach. It's going to take all hands on deck. It's
going to take every possible defensive permutation because the other thing is if you show
don Chi one coverage for an extended period of time, I'll just figure it
out. So it's gonna take. It's gonna take everything I think to slow
him down. What have you thought of just the MAVs defense overall? They
were again missed on the MAVs completely this season. Their defense has been fantastic.
It's been suffocating. They did great picking the sposh, but I needed
to blitz Phoenix. And I know a lot of people were talking about Devin
Booker's lack of effectiveness there, but they also just like playing these possessions straight
up at points, Like they did a fantastic job there against Phoenix as well.
And it's just Reggie Bullock has been huge. We know what Dorian Finnie
Smith does, Maxi Kleiba, I don't want to say he found the fountain
of youth, but like he went from being like one of the most underrated
like mobile defenders. Then there was a year and a half where felt like,
oh is he cooked or is he slower? And now he's just juiced
up yet again they are I did not. I could not have seen this
coming. And so how do you think like day match up defensively looking at
the Warriors offense, Yeah, it's pretty wild. I didn't see this coming
defensively at all for them. And part of that was because I mean all
all you know, stand up and say, like I thought that Jason Kidd
hire a huge mistake for every possible reason character wise and just what he did
with the Bucks. But what he did do, what he does tend to
do is bring a defensive mentality like he that is like the thing you point
to when you're hiring him, I think, or one of the main things.
And it just like, yeah, we knew Finny Smith was a great
defender. He's a one through four guy, and now, as small as
the series might get, he may just be a one through five defender.
Bullock is great, but I just it seems like there should be places to
attack because Brunson's small, Like there's you know, if I think Andrew Wiggins
potentially could get some some of his you know, bailout low percentage step back
twos against Brunson if it comes to that, and Daunchett should be someone you
should be able to tire out, but all those guys have held up defensively,
So I just I don't know what you do. I think if Powell
is in the game, that's probably someone you can coax out into a switch.
But yeah, Dallas has just really impressed defensively, and like you know,
there were there were stretches during the year. I forget what they finished
on defense. I want to say seventh or fourth or something, or maybe
the seventh overall and fourth over those second half, but they were the best
defensive team in the league for like, you know, three or four weeks
at a time during the year, so it's not like they're running hot and
they just I do think the challenge will be different because Phoenix was a historically
accurate mid range shooting offense until it wasn't, and so the challenge of defending
an offense like that, that's just a weird set up to play against.
The Warriors, oddly are going to be a little more conventional. They want
threes and layups, So I don't know which way that cuts, but I
do think at least if you're looking for ways for Dallas to kind of come
back to Earth, if that's even the right way to phrase it, on
defense. Maybe it's just because Phoenix kind of beats itself if it's not making
two point jump shots. I don't know. I think that Dallas's defense is
for real. Warriors are gonna run into a challenge right right on par with
what Memphis did. If not, maybe it is like disruptive and turnover forcing,
but Dallas is not gonna just roll over and get scored on. Yeah,
And I go back and forth on it too, because the numbers will
say that the Sun's got to the rim at a higher clip during the playoffs
so far than the Warriors. The Warriors seem like they are built to put
more pressure on the rim, just where it's like if you're throwing CP three
was donezo at this point in the series, if you're throwing a kitchen sink
at Devin Booker asking mcal Bridges or Cam Johnson or Jay Crowder, be like,
it's a lot different if that's Jordan Pool, or even if it's Klay
Thompson who not putting pressure on the rim but someone who could still pull up.
And then even Draymond's decision making going downhill. But then I'm juxtaposing that
against the fact that Draymond has not really been good on offense, and like
the I looked earlier before we recorded this, I was looking at the numbers
when Drey and Looney were playing together, Like the Warriors have a one seventeen
offensive rating per cleaning the last of those two on the courts, like they've
been generating offense anyway. I feel like their armory is deeper of players who
are going to be able to create when things bogged down for Stephen Curry than
it was for in Phoenix when you look what happened to Chris Paul with the
MAVs were able to do to Devin Booker, particularly over those final two games.
But then I'm also just like the Warriors have gotten off to slow starts.
I was gonna ask you what you make of just you know, like
Steph, Like if you I was talking to message, like you break down
his usage rate by quarter, and it's almost like they ease him into the
game, or he eased himself into the game before like really taking over in
the fourth. That doesn't feel like it's gonna fly against Dallas. Yeah,
I think you brought up a great point about about how Dallas might attack.
So there was a game this year I forget which of the four meetings it
was where the Mavericks trapped Curry put two on the ball every time he touched
it for the whole fourth quarter, and Curry didn't attempt a field goal in
the fourth quarter. It was a game the Warriors won by a ton because
Curry got off the ball and a lot of it was green on the short
roll and then it's four on three. The Warriors have loved to play that
style over the years. I would be really interested to see Dallas goes to
that because that might be a way that Pool gets going. And I think
Dallas Dallas will be very happy if the Grizzly series Pool, by and large
is the one they get versus the Denver one. And I don't think you
want to give him space to operate. Same with Draymond, same with Clay.
So they but but they did it for a whole quarter. It might
have been like adjacent kidd. I'm I know I'm going to meet these guys
in the conference finals. I want to, you know, not tip my
hand on what I'm gonna do. I doubt it, but that was a
really interesting approach. And I think too like Warriors do play a style offensively
when they get played conventionally, where there's just relentless running around and if if
you want to wear out, don chitch or if you want to start maybe
trying to chip away at guys like Bullock and Finney Smith that played a ton
of minutes have played so many minutes in these playoffs. I think that's a
pretty taxing style to defend, even if you're switching, because there's just mentally
there's you know, screw ups just wait to happen at every turn trying to
chase the Warrior shooters around. So it's going to be a challenge. Obviously
you should go out saying it's going to be a challenge for Dallas. But
how they hold up sort of stamina wise, and how much they throw a
curry I think are a couple of things I'll be keeping an eye on.
Do you think there's and part of me feels like this is an oversimplification when
people talk about the Warrior's offense needing more like STEPH centralism, because if you
actually look at the data, I was surprised at actually how many pick and
rules they ran with Steph last series. At the same time, they're not
like you're mentioning like trying to wear other guys out if there are mismatches to
exploit. The Warriors aren't necessarily a team that feels like they go after them,
and so there is that level of me and it like, can't we
like if you need to for stretches like STEPH should be more heliocentric. And
it comes back to the fact where the Warrior's peak might actually be the scariest
still in the NBA. It's just how sustainable is it? Because when they're
running rough shot and everything's working, it feels like it's happening in minutes long
spurts, and featuring more of STEPH feels like a way to kind of get
you through the I don't even want to call it the valleys, but like
more of the median minutes that you're playing, and especially just against this team,
if you're looking to maybe wear out one particular matchup, is it important
to try and get after to get into more of that. And then the
final thing I was saying is I think about this, I'm like, it
really just doesn't matter because I don't think the Warriors are going to change how
they've always played, Like that's just been a criticism for how long. Yeah,
that's exactly going to say that that that has been when things have run
bad for the Warriors. The number one criticism is just, well, just
play high pick and roll with Steph and Draymond and like that'll fix everything.
And it does work. But I think Steve Kurr just doesn't. It's very
clear, assuming Steve Kurr will be the head coach and not Mike Brown,
kur hates that. He just doesn't like the type of setup where all the
action originates one way and it's basically Curry is going to get off the ball
to Draymond, he's gonna drive, he's gonna pull up, or he's gonna
kick to a corner, like that's our offense. He doesn't want to play
that way. He never has. I do think there are situations and the
Warriors know this, where like if Powell is in the game, for example,
that's someone you probably just play high pick and roll against a little more
if it's Cleve. But I don't know if there's a huge advantage into generating
a switch or or you know, trying to play that way. I do
think this is talk about oversimplification. I do think you just have to involve
Don Chi in as many actions as you possibly can, because now it seems
very clear that the only way that he can be stopped is if he just
gets tired. And even even that narrative was a little sort of, I
don't know, not reflective of what really happened in his prior playoff series in
years past, because his numbers would always be awesome still, but I do
think just you know, if you're if you're going to get a superstar,
it's just it's like rule one of the book. You just have to try
to wear him down defensively and make him work. Everyone tries to do that
to Curry. I just think that that that's when the high pick and roll
and the just the basic he centric stuff I think has to come into play
a little bit. But they don't want to do it. That's really clear,
just like they probably don't even want to double him either, And if
you want to tell out, you would think that they need to do one
of preferably both, but one of those two things, although two don is
credit on the playoffs. The MAVs are scoring when he's double team does a
team one point three seven points per possession When he is double team. That
is absurdly good for anyone wondering what that means. I know it it's so
tempting to just right because just stepping back, you would you would think,
like, well, don't is this great? I mean, how bad could
it really be to just make it so he's not the guy with the ball
in his hands, just put two on him, and like, you know,
that's just logically shouldn't that work? But as you say, the numbers
do not suggest that that works. I I'm really interested to see if the
Warriors try it. But don't it is so big and so adept at just
like you know, manipulating the defense and finding the easiest past there is for
the cleanest look they're going to get that. You know, that might be
the type of thing the Warriors try to or three times and they give up,
you know, two threes and a dunk and they scrap it, because
like you know, you would think you'd try that against yok Yokichen Donchis are
weirdly kind of similar. You know, they require you to think kind of
similarly in terms of how you're going to scheme against them defensively, because just
getting the ball out of their hands doesn't seem to work because they want to
pass anyway. So I don't know. I'm also curious to see how Golden
State approaches this year is because Dallas isn't the and part of that might be
the way that they're playing right now and the personnel. They're also like,
they're not the best rebounding team on the defensive boards right now. So if
you're the Warriors, that might be sort of the if you're trying to maybe
dictate the style of play, like maybe leaning on Looney and Draymond that way.
But then I'm like, I'm just trying to go through the stream of
conscious like the punch for punch, where Dallas has been really good at forcing
turnovers. There's been no team that's been worse than protecting the ball on the
playoffs then Golden State right now, And how is that if you're giving you
know, the Man's are not a team that's looking to run, like it's
just not. But if you're getting into a point where Golden Think doesn't even
have a chance like fully set its defense, that's like that's sort of difficult
to imagine what happens there. So I'm I'm in This feels like it's gonna
be more of a chess match series than I really think that people have talked
about. I know everyone's you know, and we'll get into this in a
second, but like the Heat and the Celtics, how that's going to play
out, I just feel like they're gonna be so many like granular calls that
are made throughout this series because I want to see the first like one,
two or three games to see like what's actually happening, because there's like a
lack of field there for me right now for how these two are gonna go
out one another. It's gonna be. It takes me. It makes me
think back to like years ago some of the Warriors, the Warrior series against
the Grizzlies, the famous like the Tony Allen series where you know, the
Warriors didn't quite know what to do with him and well, we can just
take him out of the game by leaving him open and putting Andrew Bogan on
him in the corner, like that didn't happen until later in the series.
I think this is going to be one of those where whoever sort of figures
it out in game three or four or maybe even later, you know,
you never know is gonna have the advantage it just obviously, But I just
think it's gonna say this series will take twist and turns, and like the
way that it looks in the first quarter of Game one, it will look
nothing like that in you know, the fourth quarter of Game five. It'll
be a completely different sort of set up. By then. Who's your let's
wrap up with these who's your biggest X factor for the start of the Warriors.
Yes, I think it's that's tough. I mean, if it's got
to be like not a superstar, it's probably Wiggins, which is like terrifying
if you're a Warrior all of a sudden. Well, it's nice, it's
something one every once in a while. He really just gets after it.
But he's gonna have the primary assignment on don Chich. He's gonna have to
make some threes, he's gonna have to rebound, especially if the Warriors end
up going small and taking Looney off the floor. But I think I think
he's a real swing guy. And and like saying that, there will be
two games in this series where he is a zero, Like it's just you
just price that and you hope you get four or five where he's, you
know, the best defensive player on the floor and he scores you know,
eighteen points on ten shots or something. I have Pool for them just because
I think that. I assume we're gonna get to a point where Dallas really
tries to go after Steph and he's going to be just based off how Draymond
has played, and I play has been a little bit better, but you're
gonna need someone to make plays like putting the ball on the floor and make
scoring plays that way. I think Pool is going to be the most important
player off that, but that could completely flip depending on how Dallas wants to
approach this series defensively as well. Yeah, I think I think one thing
to watch real quick, just with the Pool stuff, he could have a
monster series if this does become a five out kind of thing on both ends,
because he couldn't get much going against the Grizzlies because Steven Adams and Jaren
Jackson were in there and it's just like, congratulations, you beat Anthony Melton.
There's two seven footers waiting, and Pool, as skilled as he is
as a finisher, he's just doesn't have the size or the vert to like
finish over two huge content. So if the Mavericks space it out, which
is their best offensive configuration, maybe that does get cool going. Who's your
actual actor for the Mavericks. Oh, that's a good question. It might
be it might just be Kleiba. I think I'm gonna say Kleiba because if
he's able to really keep the Warriors from staying big and just takes that option
off the table and makes you know, four or five threes a game and
still doesn't give away a ton defensively, that limits some of the Warriors options.
It tilts the rebounding battle towards Dallas if you take Looney off the floor.
I mean, so, I think he has the He's got a chance
to really kind of like we were talking about a minute ago, change sort
of the format of this series, and I think that would swing it in
Dallas's favor. If he's just making shots, that's a good one. I
have Bullock just I think he's going to be the one that sees the most
time against Staff. The whole regular season just blurs together the teams like teams
not being healthy against one another. We had that two months stretch where they
were all these nonames games playing for teams I assume he's gonna be I'm sure
we'll see Dorian Finney Smith. I'm sure we'll see others, but he's gonna
be like the primary first guy I feel like on Steph and just based off
the minute they've had, he average more minutes per game last series than any
other player on the Mavericks, that includes Don Chitch. I know the blowouts
ascue that a little bit, but they've reloted him a ton defensively. So
if he's able to just maybe you're not going after Steph hardcore every single possession
because Bullock's really making him work. That frees you up to do a lot
of other stuff on the defensive end. And if he's making his threes,
it feel like there's a lot of variants caked into Dallas's non Luca players last
series, and so he's just I think you could say this about anybody like
Kliba, or if it's Dorrian Finny Smith hitting his threes, are we getting
a good Spencer denuity game? John Brunson has been up and down since the
Jazz series as well. Yeah, it really does come down to how many
threes Dallas as role players make. I mean that might be the simple like,
if you had to pick a statistic to determine the series, that might
be it just because it's gonna be Luca passing to those guys, and if
they make him, Dallas is hard to beat. If they don't, then
else doesn't have enough. With all that said, what's your pick, I'm
gonna say Warriors in seven. I think home court matters, and I do.
I just have faith that the Warriors have seen enough of like this type
of superstar at this stage of the playoffs that they're kind of uniquely, at
least experience wise equipped to handle Danchich. But I think I just Lucas.
Lucas so unden highly great that it's it's really scared. I couldn't. I
couldn't pick less than seven, just in deference to how good Luca has been.
I'm the same with Warriors and seven and part of the reason why I've
been burned by the Mavericks too many times to doubt them now. And also
the Warriors haven't exactly incited confidence after that Game five victory over Memphis where everyone
was like, oh, it feels like they find the Warrior bards. The
game four whatever the victory was where Memphis didn't have like job wasn't a full
strike the Warriors that have come from behind to win. I was like,
I guess it's fine that they can do that. This feels like it will
eventually kept catch up with them against a healthier team, a better team that
could be Dallas. I feel like the series will just wind him going long
or based off that. The Warriors just slow starts. So yeah, and
then Luca just the greatness of Luca. And then the support. Look,
the supporting cast has been fantastic defensively, and it feels like they have enough
I don't want to call them stabs in the dark, but options where it's
Spencer, Danwhody, brunts In or Bullock, Finney Smith and Kleiba like all
raining threes, Like there's just enough. There's enough options to where like maybe
one or two of those guys at least will go off every single game that
would bring us to heat. Celtics, what are your what's your just biggest
overarching thought leading into this series? I think the well, I mean,
it feels like we just saw these two teams, but it was a couple
of years ago in the Conference finals. I think the main thing is stylistically
This is gonna just become an isolation one on one series because both of these
teams can put lineups on the floor that want to switch everything. So you're
gonna see a ton of you know, bam out of Bio gets switched out
onto Tatum. See, let's watch them try to beat him. Like that's
that's what's gonna happen. And then you know, Jimmy Butler gets Jalen Brown
picked off of him and he's got to try to beat out Horford Like that's
just I can see both teams switching a bunch and like there will be other
ways to go. Miami will play some zone, you know, and and
Boston might go double big and that could change some things. But I think
at the core, it's just gonna be con Tatum score in isolation consistently against
a bunch of different defenders, some of whom are just phenomenal Autobio Butler,
PJ Tucker. And on the other side, can the Heat do the same
because I think like Barring, you know, taking guys out like say Peyton
Pritchard on the Celtic side, or Tyler Hero or even if Kyle Lowry plays,
I think he might be someone you'd try to go at just to test
the hamstring, but otherwise there's not gonna be a lot of guys to pick
on, really, so I think it's gonna look kind of similar on both
ends until again, like the other series we talked about, one or the
other of these two teams kind of figures out will where where's the weak point,
because there's gonna be a lot of probing, I think early on to
just kind of see if there's anything they can get to offensively beyond let's have
our best guy go at whoever gets switched onto him. And they were to
your point, these teams were the two heaviest switching teams in the league from
the regular season, and so there's definitely gonna be a ton of that.
I am wondering how much it feels like it's going to be a very deferent
defense first series, but it then it's sort of could it be determined by
who's going to carve out the higher offensive ceiling? And I immediately gravitate towards
Boston there because it feels like, look, the Lowry injury hovering over all
this with the hamstring, I know Marcus Marks dealing with the midfoot Sprain as
well, But Boston just has a lot of like like a lot of ball
movers when their offense is really at it at its peak. And Jason Datan
has come a long way. I mean after the Game five collapse in the
fourth quarter, like he turned into masterpieces where it was even where didn't necessarily
have a going at points in Game seven, like he was able to move
the ball, and he's improved by leaps and bounds a sort of that orchestrator.
I do feel like, and I don't know if this is being correct
stands, I feel like I trust Boston's half court offense more than Miami.
If Miami's gonna be able to get out though, like enforced turnovers and run
and go after Boston before they set, I feel like they might have the
more dangerous shooting peak, whereas I think you could look at Boston's Hey,
we'll look at Grant Williams and Horford and what they've done and Jason Taton.
They have the better shooters, and Miami isn't playing Duncan Robinson right now,
but like part of the charm of like Max Strews can hit some of those
difficult threes and has a little bit more of the floor game than Duncan.
Robinson isn't gonna get maybe picked on as much defensively. I think we also
saw Jimmy Butler kind of you know, in the series against the Sixers,
Like, no, Butler isn't a great jump shooter now, like if you're
gonna leave him open and he can just dribble into like a MIDI like he's
improved his percentage on jumpers in the past whatever postseasons, and this season is
no different. And so I'm just I'm I think I still mean though,
like like getting if your defense is set, I don't think Miami's off is
going to like just have the necessary counters there, I guess, or won't
have enough of them, especially if Lowry is injured. I feel like his
absence, I know he hasn't necessarily had his best year, It's like his
absence might actually hurt the Heat more than Smarts or even you know you.
I think they expect Robert Williams are third to be ready, but I think
his absence, Lowry's absence hurts Miami more than either of those two for Boston,
and so it feels like the Heat are really going to have to get
to a point where they're forcing a lot of turnovers or slowing down Boston's offense
to the point that there are going to be more miss shots and then you're
able to get out and run, in which case Lowry is even more important
to that as the guy who sort of gets those going. Yeah, I
think I think that brings that elevates Heroes importance in this series because he is
someone that in a half court set for Miami can make stuff happen. I
mean, that's that's his entire role on the team is create, you know,
whether it's pick and roll, whether it's whether it's just trying to score
in isolation, scoring off movements, trying to trying to find gaps here was
I mean, I don't. I mean, Butler is a great offensive player.
I think hero is in a weird way, like the Heat's kind of
offensive barometer. But that might play right into Boston's hands because we just talked
about like, well, these teams are going to be looking for weak points,
and relatively speaking on defense, Hero is one of those. So like
the question made come down to how much defensive integrity or the Heat willing to
sacrifice in order to have someone out there or another person out there, assuming
Lowry is not healthy or can or maybe with Lowry to keep your offense running.
Because this Boston defense is just like it's just so good. It's so
good. They they're able, and this was I mean, they looked incredible
against the Bucks without Robert Williams for like, you know, I don't know
how many games he missed in this series. It's just like he was an
afterthought, which is insane because like he was a defensive Player of the Year,
like legit, you know, in the conversation guy, and even without
him, it's just they're impenetrable. They're just they're so good. So hero
is really important because like I just don't know what else you're gonna do.
I mean, Auto Bio is a great passer, is cool, like the
heater. I mean, the Celtics are just gonna be there on the guys
that used to be open against other worst defenses. So I think the more
I think about it, how the Heat find enough offense without giving up their
defense is kind of the thing I'm looking at now. I just I just
don't know where where the points come from against that defense. And it may
not matter that defense. Maybe so good. It just it doesn't matter who's
on the flour from Miami. And it's almost like they just had to do
in. Jannis had a good series, but you just had to go up
against Yannis, and Butler's been spectacular, but he's not Yannis. And so
like Jannis had problems against al Horford for like the first part of series,
even there's like issues in game seven. The Celtics are like built a ruffle,
like this exact type of offense that might need to funnel all of its
downhill pressure to one guy. And so I would agree with you that Tyler
hero then becomes all that more important because you need like that additional tough shot
maker. It's just I don't know, Boston's defense is special, and it's
it doesn't even matter what type of lineup they're gonna throw out. If Robert
Williams is coming off the bench, are you playing two bigs? Is this
a Derek White type of series? They feel like they have an answer for
However, Miami's gonna want to stylistically lean. I guess just what you could
say though, is Miami's defense is so good, do you trust Boston's offense
to actually get through that in the half court, and I do the Celtics
have had a more interesting offensive peak to me where their ball is sort of
the balls pinging around. You have Jaylon Brown making super quick decisions. You've
Tatum like really just skewering teams with his decision making out of double teams,
you're Grant Williams shooting a trillion percent from three or before that was Al Horford
really just cooking. I guess they should have enough ancillary weapons. But at
the same time, it also is like Miami is the deeper overall team because
of the contributions they've gotten from a Max Dru's, a Gay Vincent, a
Victor Oladipo. And maybe that comes down to is the lineup composition you're going
to determine more of this series than anything? Is you sort of just outlined
because what are the heat like if if Lowry's like can play, is he
even helping you on defense at this point more than a Victor Oladipo. What
that's a serious that's a serious question at this Yeah, no, I agree,
I think too. You just made me think of something else that in
both In the case of both of these teams, there's kind of some important
stuff we don't know on the heat side, and I feel like I'm we're
both kind of talking the heat down a little too much. They have a
real chance in this series that they're the number one seed in the East,
like of course, but on the heat side, you know, their route
to this point feature like any serious tests, because you know, the Sixers
team was kind of just coming undone, and you know, if it beats
healthy and Harden is twenty seventeen hard and that's a different conversation. They're a
lot harder to guard neither neither. That wasn't the case for either of them.
So we're not super sure if Miami's as good as its look. On
the other side, it's more of a granular sort of uncertainty, I guess
because speaking to Boston's offense, as you just mentioned, the Bucks will happily
give you all the threes you want, and Boston obliged. And you know,
brook Lopez is a very different interior defender than Autobio is and Grant Williams.
Monster three game in Game seven was a product of Brook Lopez and just
the Bucks in general, just they're not going to come out, They're just
going to guard the rim and give you fifty three point attempts in the game,
and good luck to you. And the Celtics, at least on the
right nights, are very much equipped to exploit that. Now the Heat are
going to test them differently. I don't think Boston's going to get away with
getting off that many threes, and certainly not that many clean threes. So
while I do agree that Boss offense, I think I like a little better
just because Tatum can just get you what you need a lot of the time.
I think there are some questions still because I do think that the Heat
are not gonna just kind of give just sort of let the variance gods decide
if they win or lose by allowing a bunch of threes. And the Celtics
made a lot of hey against Milwaukee that way, and even if I think
Milwaukee was a better team than the Heat are and that went seven. So
even with the Celtics kind of getting some things handed to them as far as
their shots, I think, you know, there are some questions still for
how they how the Heat are gonna pose different challenges for Boston's offense. I've
also wondered, though, if they might not the same level of volume,
but they still like do sort of invite threes with the amount of time we've
seen them go into zone or just the looks that they're giving up. Opponents
are shooting thirty two point seven percent and wide open threes against them in the
playoffs. I know some people from believe that the heat sort of pick and
shoes who are taking those shots. They've done a good job of guarding into
the shot clock at points too, and I feel like if you go after
Tatum at the beginning, that might be a way to put Boston into sort
of it's late shot clock offense, and that could be a problem if they
were able to get the ball out of his hands. I think even Brian
Scalabrini mentioned on the low post that they might just force him like left or
force the poor out of his hands entirely. And so that's something that might
be an anecdote to really slowing Boston's offense. This is just a tough series
for me to fathom. It does feel like it's going to be a glorious
rock fight and that every game might flirt with the under who do you have
as your X factor? For Let's start with let's start Boston. Oh,
that's a great let's see. I want to I don't want to pick an
obvious one. I think I'm gonna okay, I think I'm gonna go Grant
Williams, and not just because he's another Grant, because he was clearly the
X factor against Milwaukee, like he decided the series more or less, I
think, but just zooming out. I think if he's able to be the
four point five, assuming Horford's in there too, and you can get away
with that and you can space and so the Celtics can space five out,
I think that's going to be huge for allowing them to score enough in what
I agree will be a rock fight. But if it's got to be Robert
Williams and it's got to be Horford at the same time, things get a
little cramped and maybe a little tougher. So I think if Williams can stay
on the floor, the sort of schematic stuff shake out in such a way
that he's a benefit on both ends, and he can make you know,
a few threes a game and switch across its heavy switch series, switch across
a bunch of positions, I think he can make a big difference. I
think I'm with you too. And also if you're able to go with play,
maintain your five out integrity on offense, and then also have a lineup
out there that is going to be more of a deterrent for like Jimmy Butler's
physicality when he's going downhill, that would be the bigger question. Mark Horford
Williams better suited to go after that or can you get away with the Grant
Williams at Horford stuff there? I think as we saw against Milwaukee, a
lot of those minutes with Williams and Horford were fined. But yeah, I
actually was gonna pick Grant Williams for the Celtics as well. Who do you
have as your heat X factor? I think it's hero. It's kind of
cliche and just pick you know, the high scoring six man because usually it's
well, if he gets hot, great, if you know they can he
can make a difference. But like like I already talked about, I think
he kind of can determine, you know, what Miami looks like on both
ends to a greater extent than any non star or non superstar player in this
game. Because if he scores and he doesn't get eaten up on defense.
Then maybe the Heat's offense is fine and that really tilts things towards Miami.
But if he gets picked on, if he can't hold up, or if
he just has a couple of cold games, I don't think the Heat can
score enough. We have the same next factor here too. This is terrible
podcasting, but like I'm really thinking, as Tyler Hero going to see a
bunch of double teams in this series because that's how important he's going to be
to Miami's offense, especially if Jimmy Butler isn't playing, like they're gonna be
minish to meet bowlers and on the court. So that's what I've honestly go
about. I also, I think you could make a case it's probably two
star esque, but like bam Adebayo ends up being huge in this series,
especially if you're dealing with a hobbled Kyle Lowry or no Kyle Awry at all.
Yeah, he's the lynchpin of the defense like if he if he,
I mean, and you could argue he's as equipped to hang with Jason Tatum
in a one on one situation as like almost anyone in the league because he
can show length. He's not gonna get blown by and if he does,
he can contest from you rear view contests chase down, Like, I think
there will be a ton of time where Autobio is guarding Katum in the series,
and how that matchup plays out, it's going to be huge. What's
your pick for this series? I gotta go Boston in six. I just
I can't. I can't pick Boston winning Game seven on the road, so
sort of by definition, you have to have to do it that way.
It honestly, I think it's more likely to be fewer than six games in
Boston wins than this going seven. I have Boston in six as well.
I can't git over my concerns for Miami's half court offense enough. I think
the defense is you can make a case there They're feel like they're more weak
points in what Miami's fielding, but they might be just on par with one
another. I would say Boston's is better, but like they can match up
pretty well. I think Boston's offense is just gonna wind up having more layers
to it and that's going to make the difference. And if it's seven,
it is going to be in Miami go and that's where that would get super
interesting. Yeah right, Grant, this was great. Going deep onto the
series GABA Teo listeners where they can find you with all the great work that
you do. You can find me a GT Underscore Hughes on Twitter and just
check me out on Bleacher Report, putting up plenty of stuff every week,
all the time.