Howdy, Welcome to the Three two Outcomes podcasts, presented by Baseball Perspectives.
I'm your host, Ian Lefkowitz, and I am joined as always by Ben
Murphy and Jared Wise, who need no introduction despite the fact that I've given
them one for about one hundred episodes in a row. But we are pleased
as punched to have a special guest with us joining us this week. Tom
Cunningham pros mcmavin. Is it fair to say, I don't know, but
I'm a longtime listener, first first time caller, so we have no callers.
Yeah, but we are delighted to have you on. We met you
throughout a number of leagues and probably most notably I think in the mock draft
that we are participated in each off season. So I guess the first off
putting question I like to ask all of our guests are, uh is who
are you and why are you here? Well? So, UM, I
like playing score sheet. UM. I actually started in a league that UM
that I think both Ben and Jared were in. UM it was it was
a league I think Keith Woolner has started or something, and I got into
it through UM. I got it into it through people at work, and
it had a very weird keeper system where, um where it was based off
of years of service. So I just started That's how I started getting prospects,
is that it was the keeper system was all based off of years of
service. So if you if you you know, started a pipeline of prospects,
and you could keep more players and you could have you know, better
or better young players than everyone else in the league. What was that league
called, tom I think it was like oh o o l out of our
league or something. Yeah, yeah, oh my gosh, I remember that.
I remember that if only because of like every experience I've ever had with
Keith Wilner was memorable. But I think it's important clarify that wasn't a score
sheet league, right, It was like um points league that had like a
complicated points formula, I think, Yeah, but I had like a complicated
keeper structure, which sort of, like you were saying, laid the foundation
for that. Yeah. And it was the only draft that's longer than Murphy
that you know. It was like a twelve hour draft. But uh yeah,
but I started with that, and then then I started to get into
score sheet I think around the same time that you guys did and m and
I started drafting prospects, and I started drafting them earlier than everyone else in
my leagues. Um and uh yeah, and that's just how I've been building
my teams. So, I mean, I find it's easy if you get
prospects, um, they don't they don't cross over a lot. Um.
You know, you get their prime years. Um, you can keep the
ones that you want. You can usually they usually retain some trade value so
you can trade off the ones that you don't want. Um. So I
kind of find it's a great strategy to build from. Yeah. And just
to unpack that a little bit, I would say every year, uh,
well, we get questions from listeners, and certainly in the mock draft,
we kind of get this question pretty consistently, like, um, how many
prospects are too many? And are you drafting prospects too early? And I
think you are the perfect person to answer this question. So so I guess
you're tolerance, Like people's tolerance is going to be different. But I've in
in it. I've kept about ten prospects, um in my standard score sheet
leaks where um, where you know, they start at thirty five and they
go down to thirty you know, thirty four each prospect, so, um,
you know, I usually try to keep it around ten because like I
can usually have four of them, you know, coming in to the you
know, coming in in that year, and then maybe three of them the
next year, and then three being kind of um, you know, lottery
ticket type lower miners, miners guys, but that would be high upside.
Yeah. Yeah, so and like, you know, I guess we've seen
each other's teams for now, and like my sense from the outside is that
your teams win like thirty games a year, except when they're winning one hundred
ten games a year. Is that a stair assessment? Yeah, well,
so I started, Yeah, I started in a league that you guys are
in, and um, it was it was like I didn't have the benefit
of of one of the drafts coming into the league, you know, one
of the just dispersal drafts. Um, and I got. I got.
The team makeup was like absolutely the opposite of what I would have done.
You know. It was really good pitchers, but really old hitters, and
and and like Adam Jones was like the best player, you know, best
hitting player on the team. I think I can't imagine what it's like to
follow team. Yeah, so let's be awful. Yeah so I tore the
whole thing down and and I think probably in the second part of this year
it'll start to get get a lot better. But uh but I don't have
a bullpen, so it's not going to get a lot better till next year.
But uh yeah, yeah, it pretty much works out that way.
I don't like being in the middle. I find that, like eighty games,
winning eighty games a year is kind of the wrong place to be.
Um, I don't know. Yeah, And like I mean, you know,
I think that's the standard question we get, is like should we go
for it or should we bail? And I think what you're saying is like
if you're especially if you're in a league where you know it's not the dominant
strategy, like you kind of give yourself permission to rebuild, even if you
have a good team. Yeah, I I you know, it's some some
leagues have, you know. I think it's you have to feel out the
league too, Like, you know, the league that we're in has like
a higher tolerance for rebuilders than you know, a lot of leagues might.
But um, yeah, I don't I kind of kind of don't think.
Yeah, I definitely think you should choose a lane either you know, rebuild,
you know, and and and get out of that year, or you
know you're competing hard. Tom, you're talking about Dwayne Murphy, right,
Bil Dwayne Murphy. Oh I just talk on NorCal but yeah, yeah,
yeah, sorry, I just wanted to clarify. Yeah, go ahead,
because because Murphy is um so different than nor Cal and other standard leagues.
But yeah, cool, that's what happens when you're in like seven leagues.
You don't remember all the leagues that you're in with everybody, because if I
had, I'd been like, are you talking about or or? But okay,
I just know Murphy's the one. No, I just know that Murphy's
the one where you own Dragson profile. That's why that's the one. That's
so this was the word. We we wanted to keep two middle infielders and
a catcher, and um my co owner and I we decided, oh yeah,
we're gonna go for We're gonna see, you know, we'll find a
young you know, a young middle infield and a young catcher. And we
chose Danny Jansen, Um curious and uh and Jerks and pro far and it's
this has been a bad decision, so that is ah, yeah, I
mean I liked all of those. Well I liked two of those, and
that has come up snake guys for sure. Yeah. Um yeah. So
you may have heard been on this very podcast once or twice proclaiming his favorite
baseball opinion. Um, Jerks and Profile is bad at baseball, which is
looking unfortunately a little likely at this point. So unfortunately let me have a
win. I mean, unfortunate for his family and whatever. Okay, yes,
but great for you. I mean you deserve it. My mind record
on predicting player performance is worse than Jerks and Profile is batting average. I'll
see myself out. Um, but top So yeah, I mean Jerkson Profile
aside. And you know there is something to this right where I think you
are, let's say, not necessarily claiming that, um, the prospect strategy
is the only one or that prospects never bust. Right. Well, yeah,
no, there's there's totally you know, there's a there's a ton of
ways you could go. But um, I just you know, for me
this I see this as a good strategy that I can employ. So yeah,
um, like something that I think I have said in the past is
um to quote myself. Uh No, that I think when people talk about
how risky prospects are, sometimes they fail to evaluate how risky baseball players are.
Yeah, and so that a lot of the concern about like having this
prospect laden strategy. You know, you can also drive to Jose Ramirez in
the first round and right all of a sudden your mid career superstar is U
preferesque. Yeah. Um, so related to that, um, another phrase
you hear a lot about, especially amateur or people who are interested in prospects
but may not have a scouting background, is not to scout the stat line.
Um. I don't love the phrase don't scout the scout stat line.
How do you feel about not scouting the style? I like to stout scout
the statine. But like, I think there's certain things that you should look
at. Like I think, you know the three things that I like to
look at our you know, age, um power. Um, Well,
I guess there's four things age power, um, walk rate, and k
rate. So I mean those are the you know, whenever I look at
a prospect, those are the four things you know that I'm pretty much looking
at. You know exclusively. Um, but I actually came up with I
came up with a program that goes through and kind of ranks them for me.
Um, there's there's a there's a couple of good ones out there.
There's one on Roster Resource that does a pretty good job of, um kind
of ranking players you know, on an age basis, but also you know
from you know performance, They have like a power rankings thing. Um.
But uh, but yeah, I came up with with with something, you
know, because I couldn't find anything out there at the time. UM,
So I just did one for myself. And and that's kind of what I
what I go off of. UM. One of the things that like in
score Sheet, we have these supplemental drafts, and usually the first two or
three you get before you know, a mid season update for prospects is out,
so you kind of have to go off of chats and you know,
the you know, the stat line. UM. So so like having having
something you know, like going off the stats and like you know, trying
to figure out for yourself what, uh you know, who's going to be
in that that update. You know that I feel I feel like that's helpful
because then you can kind of kind of beat the rush. So right,
if you see that Tyler Freeman is breaking out in May, right, then
all of a sudden, or Wander Franco, who you were on I think
from birth as far as I recall, I think you guys. You guys
drafted Wander Javier and and and I got really panicked because I knew I wanted
Wander Franco. And when I saw Wander, I was I was really I
got. I got all freaked out until I saw the Javier, and I
said, I gotta get gotta get Franco in the next picks. Uh,
well, you know it's that sixty feet from stardom right there for us.
Um So, Yeah, Like when I think of you and some of our
like fellow travelers in the prospect world, I feel like there are a certain
there's a certain breed of prospect that UM is maybe rated higher on prospect boards
then uh then tend to be rated in our drafts and our rankings. And
a certain type of player who is rated UM much higher in our drafts.
Uh. Related to that, UM, tell me about all hundred kerk so
so um so Ahndre Kirk he's in. I think he's in. UM advanced
a ball now yeah, and he's he's so so I think he's like he
might be like a two hundred and thirty pound five foot eight catcher, but
the guy never strikes out. He like he he he hits for power,
he has a great walk rate and he never strikes out. So it's kind
of a guess on you know, whether he stays as a catcher. But
but I feel like there's no good scouting report out out there yet on him.
Um, I think fan grafts they comped him to like Chris Farley or
something. But uh, but like I went on his I went to I
went to search for him on Instagram to see like what a picture of him
look like, and he does not look like Chris Farley, you know he
he he looks like a baseball player now so uh yeah, yeah, he
got moved up to Dunedin before I could watch him, and the Florida State
League is like a black hole on m I LB TV. But yeah,
I cannot wait until he escapes. Um. But yeah, like I feel
like two hundred and thirty pound eight ball catcher who never strikes out as like
uh catnip, and then there are players like um, not to pick on
anyone, but like I have like Bubba Thompson in mind as like, um,
you know these like tools goofy outfielders. Yeah, they just don't have
really performance behind it yet, right yeah. Um and I feel like those
players tend to drop precipitously. Not that they never break out either, but
UM, my sense is that you feel like that is a profile that kind
of gets overrated, would that be right? I yeah, I don't know
Bubba Thompson in particular, but like I'm I'm I'm looking more at like the
the youngest player at the level, you know, because that's usually the one
that you know, you know, has the has the upside to become a
star. Um and and that's usually all so the player that's not getting get
you know, not getting recognized fully until until they hit you know, double
A or triple A right like, um, you know, I feel like
the patron saints of this were like Mookie Bets and before that, Dustin Pedraya
or not even like Juan Soto or you know, yeah, or or like
Ronald Ucuna like when he was he was in I think he was nineteen in
Triple A and you know, everyone a lot of people like. I feel
like I feel like most of the people drafting knew that this guy was gonna
be like one of the you know, like top ten in the next year,
but none of the analysts would kind of bite on that, you know,
until you know, until the next the next winner. So right,
And with Wonder Franco, for instance, I think, uh, they're a
little more eager to jump on the train. But I feel like people are
still sleeping in Wonder Franco that he has the lowest k rate of any prospect
in above a ball except for Ni Magical. According to who is Nick Magical
is like three you know, standard deviations off. But um no, and
Froco is actually hitting for power, right he's in five six Yeah, so
um yeah. I feel like that is like your ideal player in some level,
right yeah yeah, someone with a good good walk rate, like no
k rate um and can hit for power. I feel like that's and is
the youngest player at the league. I feel like that's like a that's a
really good case for someone who's going to be a star. So all right,
well we're gonna have to uh not to our Kings League team for a
very long time. A good note to us. Um so um related to
that, Just to be a little more specific, I suppose, um,
you know, are there players who you have been adding to your teams so
far this year? Um, anyone who has been jumping out to you that
you feel you've gotten on all your teams and therefore you don't need to burn
them or you could burn them to the public. Kirk is the guy that
I've got, I've got on most of my teams now. But uh,
but I mean I feel like Dylan Carlston on in the NL is the one
that you know, that's the guy that's kind of jumping out, you know.
Yeah, and yeah, um, I feel like almost in the last
two to three weeks he has started picking up some big prospect heat. Yeah,
and so like Helio Ramos and Nan l too, like he's I think
he's you know, and all these guys are pretty much young for a level,
you know, and and hitting um, Brennan Davis, he's he's really
low. But uh, I think he's probably out there and like, you
know, almost to all those scoresheet leagues right now. Yeah. Yeah,
I fess he has been even under my radar because he is a cup and
therefore er but um, yeah, so I guess you are often looking in
like a ball and even rookie league and yeah, yeah, well because because
I'm looking for the guys that are kind of like, you know, the
the outliers, and once they get to A plus or double A, you
know, those guys are probably drafted already. So yeah, um, so
one thing I noticed is that you haven't mentioned pictures a ton. Yeah.
I hardly ever draft pitchers, well pitching prospects that is. I mean,
I I'm just kind of playing the percentages there. Um. You know,
I feel like you can the hitters. You know, you're gonna get some
value out of there out of them, But pictures, it's like, you
know, you don't know what you're gonna get. So yeah, that are
so. You know, obviously your team has pictures on it as much as
around. Ben Murphy might hate the strategy of ever having a picture we can
win games eighteen sixteen. Um, but I feel like you're mischaracterizing my strategy.
It's not that it's not that I don't want to have pictures, It's
just that I don't want to draft pictures before I've drafted all the hitters.
I agree with that, Yeah, so I guess, right, when do
you agree with that? Is that? Um, where do you find your
pictures? Um? So I for pitching, I kind of go for um.
You know, you're looking for a low walk, high k rate kind
of guys. You know maybe maybe like twenty five, twenty six. I
you know, the twenty two twenty three year old pitchers. You know they're
not past that injury nexus yet. So you know, if if you can
find someone that's got like three hundred innings already, then that's that's a great
Like like Matt Boyd this year was I kind of felt like he was a
good bet. But uh, but yeah, I feel like also if if
you can get a staff together that like is going to put up, you
don't have to have all aces to get into the playoffs. You can find
put together a staff that's like between three to five and like four to two
just for the starters. You know, you can kind of I don't know
if it's the lem a plan of score sheet, but like if you have
a really good offense, then you can you can get into the playoffs on
on offense and you know, shorthooks. So Tom, I appreciate that now
as a result of you invocating this perspective, and we'll give my arguments a
little bit more credibility. We always did. Uh huh yeah, Um no,
I mean our strategy has usually just draft all the catchers, which we're
I think we're coming off a draft where Tom executed that to the letter.
Um. It feels like there's a lot of good prospect catchers that are just
you know, popping up like Kirk and this, uh, Sam Huff and
uh and uh and and Ruchman. So yeah, so right, so you
drafted Adlie Rushman because you had the number one pick. Another, I mean
another thing that you know is an ansolary benefit of this of your strategy is
that you are very likely to get number one picks a lot when you were
ducating. Yeah, and having the number one pick when you're not competing is
just vastly better than having the number three pick when you're not I almost I
almost feel like having the supplemental one picks is better than having the you know,
the fourteen one. Yeah, I don't know. Um, I mean
at least this year it was. Yeah, I agree in our Kings League
where we tanked last year, Um, we got Joey Bart and um uh
wander Fronco in July and August, and this year we're gonna get Adelie Rushman.
Sorry, Joey Bart and uh, you know, stay tuned for I'm
not ready to Bart my August number one pick, but I have somebody in
mind already. Um. And yeah, I mean I think being able to
get the drop on those kinds of players are really what the engine, like
you said, that generates championships down the line. Yeah. Um, So
yeah, I guess, um, maybe maybe this is a good time to
pivot to the draft a little bit, because, as we've been saying,
you've been uh we were talking about offline that you were watching the draft and
you managed to make it one player deep into the draft time around, Um,
which, so, yeah, is this a one player draft? I
guess would be an interesting place to start. I don't know what you guys
think, but I think I kind of think, you know, this draft
was like I think there's you know, for for scoresheet supplementals. I think
there's like maybe six or seven guys that that would should be drafted. Um,
but past that, I don't know, Like I don't I don't see
any I didn't see any pictures that I would draft on my teams, um,
coming out of the draft this year. But uh, but adle Adlee
and Vaughan and Wit and um and maybe the center fielder the Corbyn Carroll was
his name, yeah, from the Diamondbacks. Yeah, and and then um
then the guy that Tigers took too, Riley Green. Yeah. Yeah,
those are those are the guys that you know, I kind of thought it
might be interesting for score sheet teams, right. So it's so it's interesting
that you say that because you know, I've seen the less and less in
our leagues. But I still feel like you go to public leagues, especially
public continuing leagues, and you see this where there are owners who will just
take like the next name down the drafted players list in order, right,
And I feel like a lot of especially like the back half of the first
round, gets severely overdrafted year after year. Yeah. Um, I mean,
unless you like, maybe someone's seen something. I don't watch anything.
I don't watch any any college baseball. Um. I watch some minor league
baseball. Um. But um, but I feel like, you know,
in the supplementals, if you can kind of if you can kind of grab
onto guys and you know a plus or a that are moving up, and
you know, those are the guys maybe in the supplementals that you want to
you want to look at, you know, because you're also getting a you
know, a closer ETA as well. Right, sometimes it's like the perfect
time to take a prospect, right who is already in a system, I
mean, not like a drafted player. And then just um, you know,
because with July you've gotten half the date already and maybe some UH boards
are refreshing their first round. One thing that I've found, um, you
know, useful just as a like anchoring exercise. UH. You know,
Fangrass has updated its board this year, and it has done something that I've
wanted to see for a very long time, which is kind of rank amateurs
and UH drafted prospects side or affiliated prospects side by side, so that you
know, you can say, like, wait a second, this is a
forty five player and there are fifties on the board who haven't been drafted in
our league? Like what am I doing here? Right? Like? The
great the great thing about that is like you can kind of guess where where
Rushman fits in, you know, based on they gave him. Did they
give him a sixty? I thought it was a fifty five high, but
I apologize to them if it's not true. Yeah, because you know,
it seems like he's kind of like being slotted into their top ten like right
away, which you know that it makes it so much easier to value him
if you know that, you know, you know, pre draft, and
you can kind of if you're in a league where you could get that pick,
you know that you can kind of guess what you would what you would
give, you know, and that would be a lot, you know.
So yeah, and I mean, Jared, I guess you can talk about
the Orioles development process and how rock solid that has been to date. You
guys are getting very close to Jink's territories. I'm glad he pulled it back.
Av Lee Rushman, best oriole Ever or best player ever. Yes,
yeah, so you know, I think you've talked a little bit about you
know, I think pictures that you wouldn't draft any from this year, you
know. I like, for me, I've kind of like Alcmanoa just because
I can imagine a world where he is a number one starter, but only
in certain leagues, I think, right, you know, and somebody like
Nicolo dlo I would say appeals to me less even though he's a more complete
prospect. Let's say, um, just because you know, I think like
you, I think we look for upside and volatility is kind of a plus
for us some degree. Um, are there any other uh players later in
the draft. So I guess you mentioned Corbyn Carroll as a player drafted later
who kind of did make your board. Yeah, I don't know much like
I'm just going off of rankings basically basically, Um, but like from from
the profiles I read, it sounded like that's kind of like a profile that
would would work in scoresheet, Like a center fielder you know, who can
hit low strikeouts, you know, gets on base, um, good speed,
you know that. That seems like that's something that could work in scoresheet.
Um, sorry, I agree, it felt like about yeah, um
yeah, yeah, Vaughn Is I can't really figure out Fawn. Um I
would take him second and an Al I think, um, you know,
just based off you know, kind of gambling that like the bat, would
you know really really play Um? You know yeah, because with I think
you're waiting, you're waiting probably a year or two more, and you know,
you don't know what you're going to get, you know, in terms
of batting average. You know, you're gonna get some power. And it
sounds like he's gonna stick at short stop. But you know, maybe in
that time you could find another like that's you could probably find that profile,
I think, you know, somewhere in the minors. But right, you
know, especially with I feel like Latin American short stops are kind of your
specialty. Uh. And you know, I think a lot of them have
profiles that appeal to you and are probably much less coveted. Yeah, I
think they're under rank because I feel like, you know, someone coming out
of Latin America, you know, they get some DSL stats, but you
know, I don't think anyone really knows how to translate that into into like
miners or or or or what that would look like in the majors. So
you're kind of going off of maybe one or two analysts that maybe have seen
them, right. Yeah. And and also the bonus, which is kind
of like, right, yeah, it's a very strange way of like evaluating
a player based on how much money it took to get him on board.
But you know, and and and even that's kind of like, you know,
like Adrian Ron, don't you know, I think he was paid a
lot, you know, in a bonus, but he hasn't done anything,
and um, yeah, we sure had him on a team. But Andrew
Vron is really interesting to me because you know, they're is this like dichotomy
between real life value and scoresheet value, which is probably different than real life
value and fantasy value, which can be like extremely skewed, but you know,
in scoresheet, I feel like non elite right right, First baseman is
just not a profile that I love having on our team. And you know,
if that is at all a downside of Andrew Vaughn, then that's almost
I don't want to say unplayable, but like I kind of feel like,
you know, we're the last couple of years. So first baseman who can
hit is actually like an under under appreciated asset. Like hum, I guess
there was the year where everyone hit and then that, but like I mean,
coming into this year, there was a list where like Evan White was
above your Don Alvarez, and like I just that was one that kind of
I couldn't understand, Like I don't understand, like like you're Don Alvarez coming
through the miners, he was probably one of the best fifth five or six
hitters, you know in the miners, you know, coming into this year,
and you know Evan White's, you know, his profile was like he's
a really good fielder at first base, right, and we don't know if
he'll hit. So I kind of feel like the first baseman that can hit
and is going to hit a lot is something that gets undervalued by those lists.
So so your feeling is that, like the difference between a first base
prospect and Andrew Von might be enough to make him the second best prospect on
the board. Yeah, I think, like, yeah, I could the
way that Andrew Von if he if he does turn out, the way that
he's going to hit is going to be. It seems like it's gonna be
a lot of walks, not a lot of strikeouts, and a lot of
power. Yeah, and that's gonna work great in score sheet. So it
reminds me of like the way I missed personally on like Chris Bryant because I
thought, like, you know, okay, good college hitter, and I
think the position was kind of a question at that point, right, like
maybe he's a little overrated, but good college hitter and like amazing college hitter
is a pretty past gap. Yeah. Um, and so I'm curious about
you know, so I feel like the draft is also you mentioned Bobby with
there CJ Abrahms M. Certainly there were a number of other high school shortstops.
Uh that this seems to be a font of like high school shortstops.
Um do you do you kind of wait and see on those guys? Yeah?
I any like outside of that, like top five, I feel like
you can wait and see, um, you know, and you can get
a little better feel of what you're what you're getting. You know, if
you kind wait until the last draft, you know, to pick those guys
up, because you'll get you can get some rookie league stats. Maybe even
like if someone gets placed in you know, low a ball, you can
get some stats there. Um. But it kind of gives you a feel
of you know, where they are and maybe maybe even their ETA because like
if the if if they get up to low a ball, you know that
they're they're moving a little bit faster than normal, right, And I guess
that's where you can see a player, you know again, like let's say
Tyler Freeman who is starting to like hit the ball at a level that above
his draft status, let's say, right at a young age. And you
know, so I think you might be earlier on some of the second rounders.
Yeah, I used, Yeah, I kind of would wait until when
I I have that sheet that ranks players based on minor league minor league results.
So that's kind of what I'm going off of for the last last draft.
You know, who pops out and by then it's usually like who is
whoever in the rookie league or in an you know, short season ball is
really hitting, you know, ahead of their age, right, I'm imagining
um like Jaron Duran, who actually I think he's not hitting particularly basically ahead
of his age, but like these kind of pop up guys who are coming
out of the draft and like you see some scales right away. Yeah,
well Jared Duran, I I didn't really know what to think until today,
when I think Baseball America put out an updated top one hundred and they had
him as like a seventy hit, a sixty power and a seventy run like
it just like insane stats, you know, insane scouting grades. So yeah,
I was kind of someone drafted, uh Jared Duran to have me in
the draft that we just did. Yes, yeah, I was. I
was not happy about that one. Yeah, but like, okay, so
if you put a couple seventies like that'll play. Yeah, and even the
like, you know, the seventy field is a really good sign for score
Sheet as well, right, even if in center. I feel like center
field in particular takes a little while to adjust to the majors just because of
some of the vicissitudes of the way score Sheet measures defense. I don't know,
I'm not even sure that he will get to Like that's a that's a
hard outfield to get to center field in you know. Yeah, well that's
a hard outfield not to end up on the Royals to be true. Yeah,
but yeah, I definitely see what you mean. Like, if he
does play, it'll probably be as a fourth outfield or moving around spotting in
and those kind of players end up with two point one two two point one
three defense no matter how good they are. Yeah, And so I mean
that's the thing with center field prospects is that you're not going to get the
high center field rating right away. So like like Christian Pace, you know,
you know, he's going to get a great center field rating eventually,
so right, I think that's a situation where you just kind of have to
sit and wait a little bit for the for the rating to come right where
you eat it for a year and then then you get like a two point
twenty or something like that that you know is going to blow everyone away.
So right, unless they keep like a Kuonians like you know, sometimes they
it takes a couple of years to both the center field or to center field
based on political reasons too, So you know, I feel like sometimes that
is a little tricky with the prospect. But yeah, like like you said,
if it's if the fielding is there, it'll play at a certain point,
right. Um So, I have monopolized time. Any any questions from
our team based on what you heard everyone, Uh, nothing to do with
any sort of real life example that I can think of, But how do
you stay engaged with one of your teams that it's in the taking phase and
they're on pace for forty wins or something? Heady stay engaged or that great
question? Special team? Um So, I mean, the only way you're
going to get better is through the supplementals. So you know, usually I
pay more attention to the supplementals in that league than any other league, you
know, if I'm if I'm rebuilding, those are the those are the ones
I'm kind of focused, you know, more on, you know, who
am I going to get in the supplemental where they where are they going to
fit it in? And you know, am I going to be able to
keep these players? You know next year? So I actually, you know,
for nor Cal, I think I spent a lot more time trying to
figure out, you know what I'm what I'm going to do there than than
any of my other leagues. Yeah, and just to feel this one as
well, Like I have to say, like we have we're in five leagues
this year, and the one team of ours that is uh, I wouldn't
say tanking. Obviously the players are performing their harness about their generals commitment to
winning. Uh, tanking, You're such a loaded word. Um, but
that team is the one that I check immediately too. Like so much of
it is, like like you said, just kind of the anticipation of you
know, okay, we have eight really volatile potential top end prospects, like
do we keep all of them? You know, how are they going to
do? Isn't that also because you want to figure out whether you can give
me grief about having the team win games that we don't want them to win.
Is that just Jared? Because I know that's what Jared does. I
don't even have to check the email for that King's team. Jared just gives
it away to me. Yeah. Well, and guilty has charged. I
mean, it's funny. I think it's do you do you guys find that,
Like you go into the to the score sheet for that team and like,
how did this team win a game? You know? Yeah? Yeah,
I mean and there's been games that picture Triple A one that we were
like this, yeah, there's all kinds of absurdies. That team hasn't won
very many games, and they were all interesting. Yeah, and then all
of a sudden, like there are moments where like, uh, for one
of our teams, like we drafted a starting pitcher, and then all of
a sudden, like the team started winning games. Because once every five days,
it's like, oh, yeah, because we have a starting pitcher that
helps um, But no, I feel like uh, like like you,
I would say, um, being able to hit on the supplementals is just
a real a real joy, Like I felt like a you know, the
first supplemental we had. Our first pick was Trent Thornton, which was good
at the time, and with the last pick, forty eight pick of the
first round, I took Nikki Lopez, which was like a Tom Cunningham sort
special. Um doesn't have enough power. Wasn't great, but you know,
is playing right at the major league level may have trade value if a team
has nobody in the short stop. Um. So you know, I think
being able to, like I guess, position your team for the future and
perhaps trade away players who are only somewhat valuable is part of the fun.
I suppose YEA, So no, go ahead. I was gonna say that's
sayways nicely with the question that I wanted to ask Tom, is you know,
we've talked a lot about, you know, if you decide that you're
going to rebuild, how do you approach that for this season? But I'd
be curious to hear you talk a little bit about how that process evolves into
actually contending at some point. You know, Ian made a joke earlier that
your teams are sort of either winning thirty games or winning one hundred and ten
games, And we've mostly talked about, you know, which prospects you're looking
for and all that kind of stuff, And I think that's helpful to people.
But I think the trick that the differentiator really between the people that party
that strategy and actual contenders is being able to make that transition and figuring out
the right or at least all of the possible feasible ways to do that.
So I'd be here. It curious to hear you talk about that a little
bit. So I feel like managing the ETAs on the prospects, you know,
you got it, that's something you really actably have to do. Like
one of the trades I made this this this soft season, Like I traded
Bobichette for Raphael divers Um and that was like purposefully to get another bat so
that in twenty twenty I would have someone with a lot of you know,
with with experience and who might have made the jump in twenty nineteen, um,
rather than Bobishett who like maybe you know he's gonna debut sometime this year,
but you know, I don't know, you know whether he'll be held
down again next year, you know, before the deadline. So um,
I feel I feel like you gotta kind of you want everyone to arrive at
kind of around the same time. So so if you have some players you
know that are kind of lagging behind, you might want to maybe think about
trading them for for an asset that's gonna help you, you know now,
um yeah, and like relays that, like when do you say, Okay,
maybe it's time to cut bait on this player who is still young for
level, but you know the performance might not be there yet. I guess
during the protection phase is kind of when you have to feel that out.
Um yeah. And and by the time that, you know, by the
time protection rolls around, you kind of have a better idea of, um,
you know where the prospect right prospect ranks because you've seen all the top
one hundreds. You know, usually we have the you know for the mock
draft, we we haven't seen the top hundreds. You know, we're kind
of guessing there. But um but by the time protection rolls around, you
know, um where the prospect ranks, and you kind of also know sometimes
you know where they're gonna be slotted in the minor league system. So um,
you know, you would know that they're going to double A or maybe
triple A. You know, based on sprint training results. You know,
you could probably guess that. Um so I kind of think cutting bait is
you know, is around the protection phase, and that that's when I would
try to kind of sell someone, you know, I would try to sell
my you know, the extras around then yeah, yeah, and then try
and I like try not to keep anybody who you could draft with that same
pick that you get up to, yes, which is always tricky because you
know, I feel like if you're of this bent, which I certainly am,
you know there is sometimes you follow up with the prospect or you've been
nursing Sin's eighteen, right, and you also on the converse of that,
like make sure you protect the guy that you you know, and don't spend
a higher pick than you know you would have if you like, if you're
in a standard score sheet league and you can protect a guy at twenty six,
don't you know, don't let him go and then you know two weeks
later, Um, you know, the depth charts change and you know he's
he's you know, moving up, you know, and you have to draft
him with a twenty two. That's not that's not a movie you want to
make either, A right. I have done that, and I feel too
horrified whatever that happens. Yeah, like oops, um or any other any
other questions I do you want to that was the main one I want to
ask. Thanks Tom, I think that's helpful. Um yeah, yeah,
darn anything from you. No, okay, I'm good, thank you all
right. UM So we don't ordinarily ask this of guests, but since you
are an act actual listener, which again God bless, I'm surprised thatst thing
I saw this week best thing I saw this week? Yes, I have
one. Okay, so, um my son and I we uh my nine
year old um his cub scout pack um slept over in the outfield of McCoy
Stadium this this uh, this Saturday night. Um So it just happened that
Williams Sasadio got sent down to the miners on Friday. Um so I got
to see williams Astadio um um on Saturday night, and and everything off of
his bat was a rocket. He. I don't know why he's in the
miners right now. So maybe because everybody on the Twins is slugging six fifty.
Yeah, but that's amazing. Uh. McCoy Stadium one of the few
not a ton of minor egues names that we haven't been to at this point,
and obviously it is going away at the end of this year. I
think, yeah, that's another reason that we wanted to do the sleep over
this year because it's they're moving. So yeah, and we've been to Wester
and I'll sleep in the docket. Take my chance, is there? Sorry
Wester h but no, that sounds amazing and I hope, I hope Williams
Sado was everything you hoped for physically, visually and more. He actually,
um they do. Do you remember when when Randall Simon punched the I think
it was like a president that was running around the track. I believe it
would be one of the racing sausages. Yes, so they had they had
racing eyeballs that was like sponsored by like some local optometrist. So there was
like a green eyeball, like a green eyeball, blue eyeball, and a
brown eyeball that were running around the track and it was a race and Williams
Astadio came out and punched one of the one of the eyeballs. All right.
With that story, we become the number one Williams Asadio podcast on the
Internet. That is amazing. I just looked up raising eyeballs. Holy count
this is frightening. I have a thousand questions right now. Um oh my
god. Uh yeah, no, this is what my nightmare looks like every
night. It's really really disconcerting and good on. Williams asked, I guess
did he connect. I don't think he did, like a full Randall simon
to the eyeball, but like he did like the eyeball that he got into
it with definitely lost. Do you think it is because a giant ball was
coming at him and he couldn't not swing. So so the one other thing
I want to like. I was telling my son that, like, here's
this guy. This we want to I want to see this guy. Williams
asked the deal because this guy he swings at everything and he never strikes out
and he never walks. So I'm in the middle of telling him this and
Williams asked, A deal takes two pitches and at his way, Dad,
You're you're raw the moment your son larns about the fallibility of adults. All
right, Uh from the home crowd. Any best things you saw this week?
Man? Yeah? Do you want me to go next? Sorry?
Yeah, am I the home crowd. I don't even Yeah. So the
Women's World Cup started recently, and um, I know Jared's the residents soccer
buff, but I guess I'm the local women's sports advocate or whatever I know.
Um So, there was an interesting game where the US team scored a
bunch of goals against Thailand. I believe it was uh and was face some
yeah, face face some criticism for the way that they handled the decision to
score those goals, I guess, and also the way that they celebrated when
they scored those goals. And so I guess I'm just sort of here to
make sure that people that like sports, are especially soccer fans, are tuning
into the Women's World Cup, and also I guess to advocate for letting them
play and making sure that you sort of check your assumptions about how you evaluate,
you know, celebrations in general, but obviously across different types of people
in terms of their gender or race or anything like that. And there's one
thing that I read that really resonated with me about I think as Alex Morgan
said that, you know, I think a lot of the criticism that they
got was that it was a little bit rude or you know, disrespectful to
run the score up, And she was saying basically like it would have been
rude to let up on them and not play the best that they could.
That would have been like, you know, underestimating or sort of disrespecting the
opponent in a more fundamental way. And I think, at least in terms
of like the athletic endeavors that I engage anymore, I think that's exactly how
I feel too, And so it was I think compelling to see Alex Morgan
present that perspective, and I think that's something that carries over into baseball,
obviously with all the unwritten rules hogwash. Probably number two of my best things
would have been the recent Stanley Cup final win for the Not Boston team,
But number three would have been the Max Muncy line about Madison Bumgardner going to
get the ball out of the bay. And and I think, like you
know, that Max Muncy masson Bumgarner thing is a good example of something that
a lot of people have said, where, you know, the picture shouldn't
be getting quite so upset about hitters being excited that they hit a home run.
First of all, because the picture you know, suffering the you know,
having given up the home run in the first place. But it's also
a sign of respect from the hitter that they'd be excited that they hit the
home run off of the guy, So you know, take it as sort
of a compliment that it's worth getting excited that he hit a home run off
of you, and you know, do your best to win next time.
Um. You know, I think it's like the baseball carry over there,
tinn it back a little bit. Um, yeah, right, I did.
I did appreciate mastert Bumgarner though, taking a stand for like crotchety everywhere.
This is who I am. Let me play by like whining about kids
today. Um yeah, I think the women's team makes sports more fun and
Max Munsey makes baseball more fun. So pro fun Yeah, yeah fun.
Um, Jared, I suspect we may have a similar best thing we saw
this week, So do you want to go first? Um? Yeah,
because I don't have much of a story, so maybe you have a story
from it. So the best thing I saw this week was you and also
Austin, Texas, where we were together. So the two of us went
to a television festival, which is a thing that cannot be explained. No
matter how hard we try, I have failed many times. So I'll just
say it is a festival in Austin where a bunch of television is screened.
There are a number of panels. I thought it was really interesting and entertaining.
I would recommend it to anyone who does not feel weird and out by
that. And I don't know if you have a good story, so I'll
let you end because I don't have a story. I will say the highlight
or the premier show of the festival was Veronica Mars, which is a show
that is returning to Hulu, and as mentioned a couple times, it is
something that is it was tremendously important and formative to me in terms of the
way it made me feel culturally. Um, I think the way in which
it kind of also, I would say opened up space for uh, the
way female ly characters, the way women can behave on television, and um,
it was a line that you shared in from the interview. Oh I
don't yeah that. Um, you know. The the PG version, which
is the one I will I will use, is that she didn't have superpowers
the way like Buffy did. That she couldn't um, you know, kill
vampires or she wasn't like a spy and her superpower was that she could have
the confidence to tell men to flip off. So yeah, I think that
was a real Uh. It was a real wonder and it was great to
see a bunch of people who were inspired by that kind of behavior and who
like a good mystery story once in a while. So I was delied by
that. Jared, do you have any takeaways? I? Yeah, I
have a story. I don't know if you're gonna like it, though,
so are you sure you can? I would like to add the podcast here.
Um, but first I'll say if if Williams asked to punch an eyeball,
he probably just cured of a stigmatism. Um. In response to Ben,
Uh, you guys will not be surprised to learn that I am not
winning in my Women's World cup pool at work. And Ben, if you
I'm sure you have already, but if you haven't read about it, like
the labor issue stuff surrounding the women's team and what they're doing, it's kind
of fascinating, so you should beat up on that. Um. But specifically
yeah, okay, and like what they did to get their like licensing rights
back and what they're doing with is it's cool. Yeah, I'll check it
out. Um. So the best thing that I saw in texts well,
along with the panels that we went to a lot of there are a lot
of funny people. Those are probably actually the best thing, but um was
the destruction of one of Ian's closest friendships over this podcast. What and so
getting me in stopped me at any time? If you're comfortable with this,
I mean I wasn't before the story started. I just let it ride.
Well I think, I mean, there's no details now, so we can
we can stop, but we we UM. We went to Austin with one
of Ian's friends, Um, who in her mind was a close friend of
Ian. UM, and we were waiting in line before one of the panels
UM and she remarked on the fact that it seemed like everyone at this festival
had their own podcast except for the three of us US, at which point
she turned to me because I just met her a few days ago, and
she's like, well, well, Jared, you do you don't have a
podcast to you? And so I was like, well, maybe maybe you
talk with you about this. That's great, and so yeah, I watched
what it seemed to be a deep and meaningful friendship and plode right in front
of me. And yes, the horrid shame of others is harnessed myself,
which is not very far, you know it is. I kind of like
a church and state relationship with this, you know, I like having a
baseball world in a real world. And the more they cross over, the
uh, you know, it was strange. I don't want to talk about
my real life on here. So either you're saying it's your fault that your
friends don't know you have a podcast because you don't tell them. Yeah,
yeah, that would be the big takeaway. And as already fortified, So
do you think she's listening to this episode and Jared telling this story right now?
I hope no way. She made it an hour into the podcast?
Do I have to tell my family now? All right, Well, we'll
talk about this later. Until then, Tom, I want to thank you
for especially staying for this part, which God knows why. I know who
your next guest has to be. Now, okay, that's a fair button.
I appreciate that. Um. The thing is that would probably end up
being an all musical podcast, and I have learned we can't do this well
yeah, um but Tom, thank you so much. It was a delight
having you. Hopefully our listeners found the same. Um, and I guess
the best way to follow you is to follow your decision making and then the
mock draft in the off season. Is that fair? Sounds good? Yeah?
Okay, so I'll be happy and I'm behalfy Ben Murphy and Jared Wise,
I'm in Leftwitz. Thanks again and have a great day.