Welcome to Fantasy Hockey Life, presented by fan Tracks, your source of information
and analysis to help you win your fantasy hockey league. Fuck off, that's
a step hit on stay lot fod gosh. Here's your hosts, Jesse Suverre
and Victor Nuno. Jessy Hockey Live back once again. This is Jesse Sephor
from fan Tracks, and joining me is Victor Nuno of daver Prospects. Victor,
how you doing. I'm doing awesome, Jesse. We are getting closer
and closer to the start of seeing training camps and actual NHL games. That
makes me excited. That makes me excited. How about you? How are
you doing now? I'm doing all right. I'm doing all right. It
is indeed the dog days when you're hearing this. We are recording a few
episodes in advance, so we are probably Victor and myself are probably vacationing somewhere
on a beach or no, there's no beaches involved. I'm in the Midwest,
but maybe Victor found a beach somewhere. But regardless, we're all getting
ourselves ready, doing our draft, geting ourselves ready for the regular season.
Oh boy, Victor, there is a lot that people could do to get
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They could also join the Patreon. I just referenced patrons. What would
they find if they opened that magical door. The magical door. That sounds
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stuff. You can check all those things out. Victor. We've got a
great first time guest. I don't want to stand in her way much longer.
We're gonna be right back to talk Colorado Avalanche. We'd like to welcome
to the show Megan Angley of the d n VR to talk a little bit
of Colorado Avalanche. Megan, how are you doing today? I'm doing really
well. How are you doing today? I'm doing great. I'm doing great.
I'm ready to talk some Colorado Avalanche because these guys always are doing some
exciting stuff. It's tough to follow up. As Stanley Cup and the team
made a lot of changes and had to it's the winner's curse. They replaced
their cup winning goalie with the first time starter. They lost top six staples
Nasa Kadyri and Andre Berkovski a free agency capturing Gabriel Landskog had a full season
injury. So they won five fuer games in the regular season. That's still
pretty darn good because they had a heckup of regular season the year before.
They still finished first in the Central Divi Vision and then they lost in round
one to the upstart Seattle Crack in seven games. This past season, the
past the offseason currently passing, they retained a little more continuity, but top
ten scores get confer Alex Nuuk, Evan Rodriguez all out the door. We'll
talk a little bit in a minute about a couple of the players that came
in to fill that vacuum. But two years after the Cup, do the
core remaining superstars in this team Megan have enough support left to make a deep
run. It's a complicated question because I do believe yes, because the ABS
navigating roster construction in this current cap era before the cap is set to go
up just a little bit is a challenge that all teams are navigating to different
degrees now. It is really hard for a team after that twenty twenty two
year because of how well constructed it was to keep that level of compete perfectly
intact. But they have replenished even some what was lost in this off season
in a way that I think is pretty competent. And the other thing is
I don't believe that they're finished. The roster as it looks today is still
very competitive because pieces of the core remain intact. Getting Bobiram to extend in
this off season was a huge component in keeping the core competitive and maximizing this
one now that the ADS are in presently. And then the other part of
that is some of the last pieces that they're going to add around the fringes
around the start of camp, similar to the way in which Evan Rodriguez joined
the Avalanche so close to the start of training camp last year, I anticipate
that the Ads are going to look to add a player like that who maybe
it'd hoped to get more in free agency, has a lot of upside and
is still somehow hanging around come the start of camp. And so with that
in mind, I think that they're going to add a couple more PTOs to
start the season. Then there's hopefully someone like in Evan Rodriguez to round out
the bottom of that forward group in particular. Even more so with all of
that put together, then some of the new additions that were about to unpack,
I think to add really important qualities back to the Apps group. And
then the likes of Kamakar, Nathan McKinnon, Miko Ranton in after terrific seasons,
especially from rant and McKinnon, are not to be understated players that still
remain in Colorado and will keep them competitive going into this next year for sure.
And let's start talking about them and start with Nathan McKinnon. Listeners are
is everybody aware that McKinnon set a personal scoring high last year forty two goals,
sixty nine assists, one hundred and eleven points. That was in only
seventy one games. His points per sixty was fifth in the NHL. McKinnon
is a bit less durable than earlier in his career. He's missed eight seventeen
and eleven games respectively in the past three years, but he stars when it
counts, maintaining a point per game pace. Throughout the playoffs, he averages
more than five shots a game, which is just ridiculous, nearly fourteen per
sixty minutes. Only David Pasternak in the NHL shoots more often than Nathan McKinnon
does. I ran Corey Schneider data is of the old, the good old
four quadrants of the NHL, and Nathan McKinnon is off the chart in terms
of the whole NHL in shots per sixty, primary, shots, assist per
sixty, bottom line, one of the best players in hockey. Do you
see him scoring at the rate he did last year? And had these injuries
just been anomalies or should we all play for seventy games a year from mister
McKinnon. I think that the injuries have been a tough one generally for McKinnon
because they've varied in nature, So we're not looking at this extremely recurring injury
that continues to bother him season by season. It is just a wear in
tear of the season catching up with a player who is utilized in every situation
imaginable because of how valuable he is to his team. So it's hard for
me to say that eighty two games is possible for McKinnon just because of the
natural wear and tear to the body for a player that's utilized so much.
This is true of kil mccarr as well and his usage. But as far
as the points production, it's funny to talk about the evolution of Nathan McKinnon's
game because this isn't a player that really stands to evolve by very much because
he has so much skill and has from the moment he entered the league.
But in looking ahead, a little bit of consistency benefits everyone with Nathan McKinnon,
though in the way that he likes to play the game. Finally breaking
the hundred point threshold was so important for him personally, and the way in
which the Abs lost to Seattle is something that I believe personally motivates him as
well, especially after one hundred eleven point season, even in spite of missing
eleven games. Those are the types of things I look to jump start McKinnon
in this next season that I'm not sure I'm penciling him in for another one
hundred eleven point season, though I am hoping for him to across the hundred
point mark again just because of how personally motivating that was for him to finally
cross And it's because of the way he likes to score that I'm not necessarily,
even with consistency and health on his side, having him take off running
with that points total, and it's the way he likes to score. He
likes to generate in transition and then off the rush is a way in which
he likes to score and that doesn't necessarily require the right skill set alongside him
each of those times. And so the hope though, and we not to
jump the gun, but in looking at Jonathan Dremann, a player that has
been added to this team that is potentially going to be playing in the top
six along McKinnon, is a new look for McKinnon in this next year that
I think will also help to the offense created in the top six on the
whole. As far as scoring though individually for McKinnon, I think it will
be comparable to last year. That is keeping in mind the record year that
McKinnon finally had being incredibly important. Oh yeah, we're gonna hold off on
the Jonathan Drew and talk, but that is coming. That's exciting to look
forward to that. But we've got to talk about the other superstar basically,
and the forward ranks here with McKinnon being so amazing, Miko Ronton and sometimes
gets a little bit forgotten, I would say at times. And he is
incredible in different ways. Definitely a different type of player, but really amazing.
Fantasy asset three straight seasons over one hundred point pace for the first time
in his career, played all eighty two, fifty five goals, fifty assists
for that one hundred and five point pace was really amazing. The three hundred
shots is great, thirty seven power play points is incredible. He's someone that
he had career highs and goals, shots, hits, and power play points.
Really nice distribution there, and he's someone that in the past I have
maybe it faded a little bit in fantasy draft because he didn't do the hits,
shots and you know, the bash as well. But he ended up
seventeenth at his position for right wing, and with his high scoring, it's
pretty great. Pretty hard to argue with that two years left at nine point
two five million. You look at his Rampom charts and you realize that defense
is not why he's out there. It's actually pretty poor. His course,
he against expected goals against, but the offensive metrics are just so high.
The shooting percentage was a little bit high for Ronten in but the rest of
his quote unquote luck metrics are pretty much right in line. So, Megan,
I don't see why Ronton and can't continue to be a hundred point pace
player. Do you think that he continues in this century club? Yes,
he's easier to answer that question for and it's just because of the way in
which mc garantonen has grown up as a player. Season by season. He
has consolidated a lot of the things that he does well, to include the
physicality component. He obviously has had the size as a player from the beginning,
but he has begun to use it a lot more efficiently and that has
helped it with some of those five on five possession numbers, especially depending on
how that line shakes out, because I don't know exactly how Ranson is going
to be utilized, but I imagine it is going to be to boost between
the first and second lines as needed, because he demonstrated such an aptitude in
doing this last season when he was relied on more than anyone else on the
team. Because he was able to play in all games in the regular season,
stay healthy take on even more of a leadership role. These are bigger
things than just the scoring that he's contributing, and he was able to balance
this while being incredibly productive. Because the other thing is you talked about luck
metrics when you look at the whole of the Avalanche, scoring and finishing touch
were things that were down on the whole for the forward group last year,
and this was something that didn't seem to play make a ranson into terribly and
so when the lights shone a little bit brighter and there was greater expectation and
pressure on him, he met that moment so well that in the same Vein
after a season like last year, exit specifically to Seattle, I think Ransonin
is also going to be particularly motivated to pick up where he laughed off last
year, in the incredible year that he had Valor Nisushkin. Last year he
was the fifty ninth ranked fantasy player at an eighty two game pace, and
Victory and I are both optimistic for him this year. I'll just get it
out of the way. It ended really poorly. He was taken out of
the playoffs with an incident that somehow involved a Seattle hotel room. Police alcohol
and a very upset young woman. I have no idea what happened, and
I don't think I dare speculate too far, but regardless, he seems to
be back this year. An ankle surgery last year, among other issues,
wrecked the first half of the season, limited him to fifty three games.
He's actually missed double digit games for the past five years. He had three
shots a hit in forty seven points. Yeah, three shots a game,
a hit a game in forty seven points overall in those fifty three games he
was a very frequent running mate of McKinnon. Went in who is Nis skating
with this year? And could he again be a point per game type guy?
In looking at how things are tracking in terms of pace last year,
even though ankle was still giving him a little bit of trouble, it was
something that he was still rehabilitating even while he was returned to gameplay through points
last season, and the pace seemed to hover right around the point per game
pace even then, in knowing that he is battling this injury a little bit
of discomfort maybe it's the better word for it. And so in seeing that,
I do expect the pace to remain similar and I don't want to completely
unaddress the absence from the team during the Seattle series last year. There is
a component here for Nichushkin to address with his teammates next year that is going
to be something that I don't think is outside of his reach in being able
to reconnect with the group and just repair some of maybe the disappointment or trust
that was broken, and having had this happen now and knowing what Nutushikan has
meant to this group previously, this is the player that after games, even
when Bednar is leaving after breaking down film, Natushkin is still in the weight
room working hard. This is a quality in him that his teammates have come
to know and respect and appreciate. And so I think there is a path
forward for Nitushkan to reconnect with this group next year and have that support around
him too, because with what he means to the top six, it is
absolutely necessary. I imagine him playing alongside a second line that could be made
up of Ryan Johansson him, and this is potentially where Artery Lechanin is slotted
in there. If Lechanin is up and drew And is down, maybe that
is the winger on that line. But either way, he is going to
play an important role in the top six with potential four top line minutes,
and an important role in special teams, particularly on their first power play unit.
They're going to need a lot from Nachushkin in these areas, and I
think the biggest thing is he's capable of it. But he is going to
need to lean on his support next year and make sure that he's checking in
with people around him and using them for what they're there for, and that
is a support. Yoh, you mentioned leaking in. He's the next guy
we're going to talk about. I've been a huge fan of his since his
Montreal days as a strong defensive foward, and I was really excited when they
acquired him. I thought he was one of the biggest, one of the
best kits at the trade deadline, and they certainly panned out with the Cup
run. This past season, he took an even better step personally forward,
I would say in terms of his point production. He ended up with a
sixty five point pace, which was the highest of his career and the most
amount of total points he was also achieved this year, though he did only
play sixty four games because it broke his finger in March returning the playoffs and
had six points in seven games, so that was nice. The sixty five
point pace came from twenty one goals thirty assists, which was pretty nice,
and he also had some pretty decent hitting block numbers. Twenty power play points
was way more than he ever had. In fact, that was pretty much
more than he'd had in his entire career combined up until that point. So
that was a big step forward on the power play four years left at four
point five million, and a huge jump in time on ice for him.
He was third on the AVS for forwards and five more minutes than his previous
career high and tripled the amount of power play time. So I think the
question here is does that top deployment continue for leakin In, Because if it
does, I think he can continue to put up sixty five plus point pace
numbers. So what do you think about leakin In's role in twenty twenty three,
twenty four Megan, Oh, yeah, it's definitely like you said,
top deployment. I imagine we'll continue just in looking at the cast of characters
that are currently slotted in there. The only one that is a little bit
of a question is Joanne, but Leachanin is a mainstay there at this point,
and especially in looking at his contract, that is the hope that the
Apps have for Lechnin two is to continue on this course. He is someone
too similar to Valetukin. That heavy four checking physical role that he plays is
also sometimes exactly what a line needs, and not every player can bring that
right, especially in a top six. You're looking at a lot of players
with a lot of skill upside. Now Lechnin is obviously producing, so that's
not to demerit that quality of his game, but the physical component that he
brings about, the reliable defensively component that he brings to a line are going
to be things that the top six will always need, whether that be from
Valetu, Lechnin and both. And so that is absolutely going to continue having
him seen him miss some time last year too. The expectation from my perspective
is even just slightly higher, and I'll probably reference Lechnin and talking about some
of these other new additions because there is something of a boost in production that
can be awarded two players when they come through Colorado, even someone like JT.
Kahfer in a contract year when given top six opportunity, depending on how
players utilize it. They do see those career high numbers like you're describing with
Lackanen, and I expect it to continue because stylistically, this is exactly the
role that he was meant to play, and I think that's why it complements
him so well. Is Colorado is able to grant him that opportunity that he
especially shines in the top six. Ryan Johansson is a guy who you didn't
get to watch on Colorado, but he was in the division in Nashville for
the last few years and he had a rough year. But really his year
was a lot like a lot of the years of his career, except the
year before last, where he absolutely played out of his mind fifty five games.
This past year though, twenty eight points, eighty six shots, forty
nine it wasn't It wasn't particularly a great year. His season ended in February
with legs injury and jury and a buyout. He's off the Predators now presumably
lined up to be the two CE. Pretty good for Nasim Kadri's career in
the past, so two s in Colorado is and not a bad gigs recently
that career year. But are the ads expecting him to get back to that
type of form, maybe a sixty five point form, or what are the
ads exactly expecting out of Brian Johansson. I think the sixty point mark is
a little ambitious just because of the context of that season for Nashville as well,
just the shooting percentage and a benefit of some IPDIO numbers, but also
taking into account the injury that he's rehabilitated, could affect speed, something that
is already a little bit in question with the way Colorado likes to play,
which is very fast. Ken Ryan Johansson hang with the speed of Colorado's top
six, and I think there absolutely is potential for this. But what I'm
really looking for and what I imagine Colorado targeted in wanting Ryan Johansson is one
more simply someone who could hang in the face off dot and help them down
the middle in that regard, and that is something that I think Ryan Johansson
is going to bring and situationally that is going to be so helpful for the
Cardo Avalanche and something that they needed and lost in JT. Comfort and the
other part of it that has also been lost in the absence of Gabriel Landskog
has been something of the physical and NetFront presence that Landiscog brought about. Ryan
Johansson can help to replay that because he is a really difficult player to play
opposite of, and he is going to make it a very punishing decision if
that is somebody that you take on in the offensive set. As far as
the production, though, like I alluded to with Lecknan, I do imagine
there is something of a boost in production and coming through Colorado, but I'm
not ready to say that it is going to rival that sixty three point season
that he's just one removed from having, though I do think that something in
the forty five to fifty point mark is what I'm hoping for Gryan Johnson.
I just hope he can hang with the speed of the top six drive play,
be a physical presence. Those two things are going to be really important,
and that's where my expectation is right now. You've mentioned Jonathan drew on
a few times, and that really intrigues me because this is a guy who's
tantalizing talent has never seemingly come to full fruition. He's twenty eight now,
clearly it was time to move on from Montreal. He had twenty nine points
and fifty eight games last year, twenty nine hits, sixty nine shots,
very few shots for a guy who played fifty eight games, skated under fifteen
minutes a night for the first time in six seasons in Montreal. Over his
career, he's been a mild positive and expected goals on even strength offense,
a mild negative on defense. According to the evolving hockey data, Still in
his late prime, expectations are likely to be a little more realistic than they
were for a Quebec native who has hyped up a lot and played in Montreal
these years. Do you see a fifty point season for Drouet sounds like maybe
with McKinnon. What do you expect out of drun this year in Colorado?
It's interesting because of the value contract that they got him for. If things
were not working out in the top six, I could see him being utilized
very effectively in the third line role where there is a little bit of an
opportunity also to be filled for the ABS, And if that were to be
the case, I wouldn't have maybe the fifty point season expectation, but that
would also mean that something went wrong and he didn't work in the top six,
and I'm not counting on that until I see it in reality. And
so with drewn Won, the context of last season for him in Montreal was
another team more so than the Avalanche plagued by injury, and so to see
something close to a thirty point season in the context of what Montreal was dealing
with last year is actually a little bit encouraging because of the things I've alluded
to in players being able to observe a boost in production and coming through Colorado,
and then of course the stylistic fit then of what Colorado will allow Drouette
to do with the runway to play alongside players like McKinnon, It is hard
not to see an inevitable boost of production in that way as well. But
the other part of it is Colorado is going to make demands of their players
to buy into the way that they like to play, and of course the
speed and the high acting offense that they look to up top are part of
that. But the other part of that is becoming more reliable defensively. This
is an area of Juranne's game that he could stand to improve, and I
believe is going to be asked of him in Colorado. And I think that
this is where players like Vanituchkin, who through three seasons in Colorado, you
really began to see the potential that was there that was not being realized in
Dallas. And so sometimes players like that are described as something as a rehabilitation
project, and I can see something like that for Juranne in Colorado. Parts
of his games that maybe weren't touted as the best parts before could become improved
upon. And so all of that put together is an exciting potential for the
top six. I think that the production is there inevitably in playing alongside Ranton
and McKinnon, even if it's going to end up being something like a Nachuchkan
or Johansson. I'm still seeing the points upside to rival some of his early
seasons in the league when he was closer to fifty points. I won't get
carried away and suggest that he's there out the gate, but I'm targeting forty
point season for Jonathan Duran if things go according to plan, and the thing
is McKinnon vouch for him. He's wanted here in Colorado, and so those
things put together also are why I'm excited, and there's so little risk here
in Colorado taking this chance on him, because he can be buried in the
depth if if things really didn't go according to plan, and it's at very
little expense to the Avs. Let's put a couple more forwards. We'll talk
about a couple more here and just put him up against each other and say
which one you think we'll have the better season? Ross Colton Miles Wood.
Colton came in a trade with Tampa Bay. He's about to be twenty seven,
but he put up thirty two points, close to two shots a game,
more than two hits a game in only twelve minutes. Miles Wood is
a long term, low dollar signing away from New Jersey, providing some roster
stability maybe a little bit of salary control for Colorado. He was really squeezed
for minutes because New Jersey's lineup has just gotten so deep. But he put
him about the same numbers in about the same minutes, though with half the
hit rate one year older. He's got a much longer track record in future
term. But which of Ross Colton or Miles Wood would you take for next
year? Making Ross Colton, I think this is not to demerit Miles Wood.
They definitely sought him out for a specific reason as well. But even
in evaluating how Colorado got Russ Colton in essentially losing Alex new Hook to make
this happen, Ross Colton is highly coveted by the Avalanche. The contract that
he signs, the term that came with it also supports the belief that they
have not only a high expectation for Colton going into next year, but a
future plan for him in the AVS Forward Group too that I think has promotion
at the end of it. But in looking at these things, I think
Ross Colton can have a greater impact and offensive contribution. I think that he's
going to be looked to on both special teams. The AVS Power Play has
lost some personnel that are going to be important to replace, and I'm not
going to get ahead of myself and say that he is going to be a
PK specialist, but I think there's potential for that with Colton as well.
And so all of these things put together are going to be of tremendous value
and utility to Colorado. That's why I'm looking to Colton as being really important
between the two of those, and just got to ask you, Gabriel Landi
Scott long term, it's going to be back for the playoffs? Is he
going to retire? What's the deal. I'm not talking about retirement with Landi
Scott just yet, and I'm also not talking about any sort of return to
the playoffs. And the reason being I watched last year as information changed so
quickly surrounding his status and his return, and it was, as I came
to know, as honest as they could give us, like the situation was
so fluid and changing at that time, he was genuinely trying to evaluate moment
by moment if he could return to play, and ultimately, of course,
it ended with the decision to have the cartilage transplant surgery to his knee.
But in knowing just how fluid the situation was before the surgery decision got made,
and also recognizing the nature of this surgery specifically being a bit unknown,
especially as it relates to professional sports, we are learning in real time what
recovery for this injury or and then surgery. Sorry, looks like it's just
too uncertain. I don't even think Lando Scogg is entertaining the idea of retirement.
Yet this is something that I think after a few months of rehabbing this
specific surgery, will also begin asking those same questions. And he is the
type of player who obviously has such a passion for the game that is going
to be the hope, that is going to be really incentive lies. But
he's also very honest about what his body is capable of and isn't going to
push it unnecessarily unless he feels properly ready to return to play. I know
that's such a middle of the road answer, but I do believe it to
be true of land discog that it's just going to be a few months before
we can know what comes next for him. And it's just because we're in
very unknown territory with the recovery of this surgery. But I'm not thinking in
terms of retirement, and I don't think Landi Scoggy is either. All right,
great stuff on the full words, we're going to move over to the
d and of course we're going to start with kil mccarr. It's such an
incredible player and we had him, of course rated as one of the top
players. He actually in our format finished as the second fantasy defenseman. But
he definitely when that top conversation. He only played sixty games, so lower
body injuries in March and April limited him slightly, but seventeen goals forty nine
assists for sixty six points in those sixty games for a ninety point pace thirty
power play points is pretty incredible, and the hits, blocks, and shots
are actually pretty decent, leaving him twenty eighth ranked at his positions for BASH
and pretty similar to last season. He's been in the ninety point pace neighborhood
the last couple four years. Left at nine million, I think that's obviously
one of the best contracts for such a high point producer. You look around
the league some of the other high contract d and he definitely would rather have
him a car, just for lots of reasons, but also for that.
And you look at some of the underlyings, like his defensive metrics are actually
really good, so so his offense as you would expect. Although one of
the interesting things is that his expected goals for per sixty is like league average,
which shocked me. I think he's way better than that, at least
the eye test tells you that, So that's a little bit interesting. But
Megan I guess I have a few questions about macar that are all conto related.
One is he healthy to start camp, which seems like he probably is.
Can he finally play a full eighty two game season, and then can
he continue this ninety plus point pace? What do you think about those?
Yeah? So, as first the health, Fortunately, this sort of longer
off season has allowed him to be healthy to start next year. That was
something that started to compound by the end of last year, and a lot
of that is in part because of usage, and so in talking about what
he's capable of for next season and the possible points production, it's going to
seem like a weird start, but it really relies on the health of the
rest of the decorps, and that is Josh Manson being at the top of
that. And then of course can bo Byron play a more complete season as
well? And the reason being, kil mccar's usage is quite unbelievable. He
leads the league in ice time year by year, and last year it was
so heightened that he was being worn down and deployed just so much in every
situation game by game. I think that is what sort of led to his
body wearing down on him by the end of the season then, because it
did begin to compound. And the other part of that too is it affects
his points production because he is being used on the ice in all situations and
relied on more defensively. It doesn't allow him to do the kil mccarr things
that he's capable of, and that is the offensive side of the game that
we know to be so excellent for him. And it is because he is
being counted on for so many different things that if he can, if that
workload can be more balanced among the decor, then I think you can see
him play a more complete, close to eighty two game season. Though I
still think that his usage is going to be quite high just because of how
valuable he is on both ends of the ice. You see him return to
form when there's a little bit more balanced to the decor. And that's my
hope for him next season then, and that is in the hands then in
the health of bo Biram and Josh Manson. In particular, Devon tays he
didn't keep pace with his extraordinary twenty one slash twenty two, he was still
the number eighteenth score among NHL defenseman last year. Two hits just short of
two blocks all I'm sorry. Two shots just short of two blocks and a
hit per game is glorious for us fantasy folks too. It doesn't hurt that
his number one defensive partner was Kale mccarr. No way he was going to
get the top power playtime on ice on this team. But one hundred and
sixty three minutes is not quite buried either. He had plenty of opportunity even
if the results only comprised seven of the fifty points he put up. Unlike
a couple of other guys on this blue line, this contract is brenning short,
and there's an awful lot of guys coming up behind Tays only one year
left on this contract. Is he going to stick the car again this year
and produced similarly? And is he a part of a long term plan for
Colorado or at risk of being a cap casualty. He's certainly at risk of
being a cap casualty. But I know the hope is for him to stay
in Colorado. It's just the value that he brings as a bona fide top
payer defenseman anywhere in the league, but especially in getting to play alongside a
player like macarr. Is going to be hard to make a competing offer for.
But the Colorado Avalanche we're building something right now. They're in this window
of wanting to compete for more, and I think Devonteves is going to want
to be a part of that past this season, so in it being a
contract year for him, there's a lot to play for just generally speaking,
even if the next steps aren't with the Colorado Avalanche, He's looking to have
a big year. And I also am linking him to Macar for the upcoming
season just because of what those two do so well together, and Byron pretty
versatile. He's the other the third there in mind for who would play then
on the top pair in Colorado, and because he's versatile and we are also
still looking for him to have a full season. I'm still having the car
and Taves as a locked in pairing for next year, and the hope is
that Colorado will be able to make it. It happened for him to stay
in Colorado past this year, but how things go for him on a personal
level is going to influence that a lot. I'm sure they would have liked
to keep jt Comfort after the year he had last year as well, and
it just wasn't possible, and so it's hard though, like with defenseman,
it is positionally so coveted, especially to have a player like Taves who can
be so reliable defensively, and I'm expecting a little bit of a boost in
production from him as well, especially on special teams, because so much of
their second power play unit was in flux last year with all of the injuries,
and they were really trying to experiment with something and three defenseman on PP
two with Taves, Gerard and Byrom, and they weren't able to fully realize
that dream because of all of these injuries, just then shaking up both the
power play units. And with that in mind, if there's a little bit
of health on Colorado's side, I think this is an area where Devon Taves
could really contribute offensively on the power play and so there's more to give there
in that sense. But he's certainly a really important part of Colorado's de corps
and really important to kill mccarr absolutely. The next guy we are going to
talk about is Beau Byrom, one of my absolute favorite players, and when
he was a prospect, he was one of my favorite prospects and he has
been pretty incredible for the Avalanche. He only played forty two games, though
he had a lower body injury November than miss time for undisclosed reasons in December
January. We know that he has had concussion issues and so that's often the
speculation whenever he has missed some time here and there. But durability continues to
be an issue for Byrom for sure. Ten goals in fourteen assists for twenty
five points in the forty two games he played for forty seven point pace definitely
has left all of us fantasy polies wanting more consistency and in the lineup time
for Byrom the six power play points, and we know he's not going to
necessarily get the biggest role there with the other with mccarr and some of the
other defensemen on the team. His bash has been a little bit weak,
hundred and tenth paced out for his position. He did the Bridge deal two
years at three point eight five, so in cap leagues, really pretty nice
if he actually plays, but definitely going to get need to be paid after
that couple of years, it would seem. And he has been someone that
when you look at the underlyings, he's been pretty good defensively on the power
play, he excels offensively. His even strength expected goals for sixty though,
hasn't been quite as good. So it's been a little bit interesting to look
at those analytics versus the eye test because I know when I watch him,
I just see how great he is at to move in the play and transition.
Megan Byron, He's been so fantastic when he plays, but he has
really struggled. Do you think he can stay healthy? And if he can
stay healthy, can he get over that fifty point pace hump. He's so
hard to talk about with respect to injury because it's been such a heartbreaking road
through Colorado so far. But the thing that gives me a little bit of
optimism is last year's injury and the time mist was related to lower body in
its entirety, and so there wasn't any concern of anything relating to the head
last year with respect to his absences, and so in knowing that, I
feel a little bit more comfortable that I won't say that we're past the concussion
part of the conversation, but last year was just a little bit of a
fluke in terms of the injury that was bothering him. The hope then is
that it's just a clean slate going into next year, because you're not the
only one left want with Byram, especially in what he teased in the twenty
twenty two Cup run, even though there were so many opportunities that he was
on the doorstep of that he wasn't able to fully complete or finish that the
potential was teased so much there that something like a fifty point season I wouldn't
even bad eye at that as it when it comes to Byram, it's just
been a matter of unfortunate circumstance and injury that has brought us here, and
it's reflected in the contract too that he's going to play for now. I
think the av is valuing Byram appropriately, but the term is so short that
it is a contract where he has a lot of runway to prove himself if
he wants to continue in Colorado or even get the nod to be a top
paired demon elsewhere. These next two years, his health and his performance are
going to be incredibly important for him because I think no one believes in himself
more than Bill Byron believes in himself. He has tremendous confidence and has just
been held back then by some of these injuries that everybody is hoping for more
from him and he's capable of it. His body has just betrayed him a
little bit in the seasons before. But still everyone around who watches this player
is hoping for big things for Byram and it's not misplaced. It's because we
see those moments on ice where he teases a potential that is so much more
than we've been able to see so far. Sam Girard I was told there
could only be so many relevant defenseman a team for production, and Colorado just
keeps going because Sam Girard, way under the radar, is still skates twenty
one and a half minutes a night, puts up half a point one and
a half shots, one and a half half blocks, and it hit even
though he feels more established to me somehow, maybe because he's more anonymous.
He's only six months older than kil mccarr, so hein't exactly old, and
he's the second highest paid demon on the team. To me, he's the
picture of a very good second par defenseman. I don't know will he continue
to play this role that he has played, and is there any path the
more production, or are the Byrons of the world going to end up squeezing
him out of the top opportunities. It's funny to hear how you opened it
because within the APPS fan base there are a lot of complicated feelings about Girard.
I personally find his contract to be of great value to the Apps.
To get a second pair of Demon for the money that they have for as
long as they've been able to has been hard for other teams to replicate,
and I think people under value having a bonafied second pair Demon in Girard for
that value, often because he is pretty well rounded all things considered. There
are some moments that I think he's a lightning rod for being a scapegoat.
If there is a mistake that gets made defensively and he is on the ice
when it happens, people remember that a little bit more readily than they might
for other players. But we're going with this is he is still a second
pair defenseman. I don't know if the production can rival that of Byron's just
because of the natural instinct that Byram has demonstrated for that side of the game,
but where I think Gerard has value in that role as a second pair
of team man is the well rounded parts of his game, and that is
then going to ask him to step it up to be more sound defensively.
I don't think this is the worst part of his game, but a lot
of people look to his size they see, okay, you should be a
small, puck moving defenseman. So we really want to see that offensive side
of the game flourish. All of that is still true, but with like
you mentioned, the likes of mccartaves and Byram around him, that's where I'd
really like to see Gerard button things up and just lock things down defensively because
that is going to be a need for the Avs next year or two.
Without knowing the health of Josh Manson, if he can play a full season,
then that sort of third pairing in that seventh man Jack Johnson is going
to return. That's great veteran presence, but there's still a little bit of
mystery, especially now with Eric Johnson gone for the bottom of the DCOR that
there's room for Gerard to make some really memorable moments in this next season with
Colorado as a really important player. Even with the likes of mccarr and Tave's
environment alongside him. All right, great stuff on the d We're gonna switch
over to the goalies now. And the Avalanche gave up the sixth ranked expected
goals per sixty two point four according to Evolving Hockey, but conceded the tenth
actual goals according to NHL dot Com. And of course we got to talk
about Georgiev. It was his first season in Colorado, his first season with
a starters workload, so that was a bit of a difference for him,
playing nearly double the number of games he's ever played. He's played in the
thirties low thirties a couple of times, and playing sixty two was a big
jump for him. Overall pretty well forty wins, two point five one GA
n nineteen save percentage. He also saved almost sixteen goals save above expected,
and had a delta Fenwick of point seven eight. All of that really good
and not being paid a whole ton, which is nice for those of us
in Cap League. Three point four for a starter on a really good team
is pretty darn nice. And he overall outperformed most of his expected metrics,
which is really hard to do when the Avalanche plays such good d in front
of you. It was a little bit worse on the penalty kill, but
overall he was still really good there. What do you expect from Georgiev next
season? Can he maybe improve a little bit? Is the defense is going
to be similar? What kind of I imagine he's still going to be the
volume guy because Franco's behind me. I'm not sure how much he's going to
be pushed in terms of being the volume starter in Colorado. What can we
expect from Georgiev? Megan? It's interesting because I don't think that was the
initiation for Georgiev that the Apps are expecting, especially in having Francos. I
think they were going to balance that workload between both goaltenders a bit more evenly
than it actually played out, and that was in part because of Francos experiencing
an injury, and so they became very lion on Georgiev and it put him
in that starting role pretty solidly, though his play at the start of the
year also earned him that right. So Georgiev was just such a great gamble
for the Avalanche, and it is why in looking at some of the new
additions in this offseason, though there is some mystery and a lot of hope
that players will exceed expectation, and looking at what the Avs were able to
do in their tandem with Georgiev and Franco's, I have a lot of high
expectation then on some of the risks that they take, because Georgy of adapted
so well with the way that Colorado likes to play, because there is some
adjusting, not only in him newly being a starting goaltender that's a lot more
work than he's used to taking on, but also with the way Colorado likes
to play in front of him, and part of the context for last year
and I forget what it was, it ended up being something close to four
hundred main games lost for Colorado Avalanche because of injury. That was not Colorado's
defense at its finest. The team defense too, specifically not at its finest,
and so Georgy IV was tested a lot and there were some low points
for Colorado before they won the Central There were some panic, there was panic,
and Georgy was one of the most consistent parts though in all of that.
There were a couple of rough games in December and then thinks stayed pretty
consistent and so you knew what to expect then with Georgia. So where I'm
going with this is he had such a solid first year with a healthier lineup
in front of him, I think it only goes up from here. Yeah,
for sure, and I would agree with that. I'm also curious about
the backup role. And we have Friendso's he's been there for a long time,
he's been very experienced, he's been with the team. All of those
things are really nice. They also have Justice Nann, who I would love
to get your take on because he's someone that for a long time we were
thinking slash hoping that he could be the next wave, that he could be
the next potential starter of a really good color or Avalanche team. So of
course that's always going to generate interest. And he had a bit of a
tough time adjusting initially to the North American game, but he definitely did a
lot better in the HL last season and was really good with the Eagles.
So I'm wondering if you think that or what the organization seems to think of
an and in do you think he could compete a little bit for starts with
Friendsos and maybe earned the backup role and potentially challenge for a starter spot.
Someday. It's an interesting question, and I'm glad to hear you talk about
last season and the improvement for Estas because in the American League last year the
Cardo Eagles also struggled quite a bit, but his individual game I think took
a step forward, and some of that was in his first year, making
the adjustment to North American ice and also having a new goaltending coach in the
middle of the season around January on he started working with Peter Boudai, and
I remember he talked about how valuable it was working with Budda because Budda is
not so far removed which from his playing days that there was a very modern
approach in what Buddha I was able to do. And Buddha also made a
transition as a goaltender to North americanized as a player himself. This was all
really beneficial for Usis on it in so in year two, even with a
lot of the injuries that the trickle down effect also affected things at the American
League level. Used this stay in the top goaltender conversation within the American League,
especially because you would compare the volume of shots that Usis would face compared
to other teams. A lot more was being allowed, but he was stopping
more comfortable, confident and assumes something of a starter role. I'm still not
prepared, though, because at age twenty three, I think the organization recognizes
the trajectory for goalies can be a longer route. I look at someone like
Logan Thompson who had to rise to a level of success at the American League
level first before making that leap to the National League and getting that consideration,
and that's where I'm at with Eustacean and in As. I still think he
has to demonstrate a high aptitude at the American League level before we're in that
conversation of graduating him. And part of that is because of Pablo Friendsos,
the experience that he has. He's so well liked and well loved in this
organization that I think they'd like for him to continue on here as long as
they can keep him, unless someone gets silly and would like to have him
as a starter. But I do think because of how they sought goaltending for
Loveland and bringing on a young goaltender and Arvid Holme to work alongside Eustace,
that we're going to see Ustace get more games with the Avalanche this upcoming season
to see how he performs on that stage. But I don't think it's with
the idea that he's ready to graduate to back up someone like her yet.
I think he's going to settle in that third string role for now, and
he's still auditioning even for that in my eyes, and it's just because he
is still so young for a goaltender. Megan, this has been some great
insight on the Colorado Avalanche. Why don't you let people know how they can
follow all of your work out there? Absolutely all my writing gets posted on
the DNBR dot com and a lot of my updates come about on x I
am at meg angle on there, and yeah, just follow along on any
of those two platforms for the upcoming season. Tremendous people should definitely go out
and do that. Thank you so much for being on Megan. Thank you
guys. Wilson. That's good fired. Oh my goodness, Wan go without
quick grab. Now is your weekly goalie talk with Cats Silverman Cat's Instincts.
Here we are again with Cat Silverman in Goal mag to talk Colorado Avalanche prospect
goalies and the first one we're going to talk about is Justice Nann, and
he's a six four, twenty nine pound goalie. Taken back in twenty eighteen,
he's been in North America for the last couple of seasons for NHL games
in that time all went pretty poorly. Unfortunately. His hockey prospecting has him
covering in that mid twenty to thirty five range of NHL or probability. He's
got some decent comps, mostly replacement level guys. There's a Vesta Toscola in
there, which I know makes you happy, Cat, and yeah, in
the HL the last couple of seasons, he's been a little bit better this
past season compared to his first. He played a similar number of games forty
eight in twenty one twenty two and then twenty and then forty one in twenty
two twenty three, and looking at the stats on sport contract, he actually
had one of the best save percent above expected in the night in the AHL
this season. So that's good, Kat. What do your instincts tell us
about Nann? Do you think he's eventually going to be a starter one day
in Colorado? I think that's at the very least I think that's their expectation.
It was mine too. When he got drafted. He's a bigger kid.
He's six four two ten. I remember when he got drafted. I
was actually speaking with his goalie coach over in Finland, and he said that
the number one thing that they really wanted to work on with him that year
was his conditioning, just because from a longevity standpoint, it seemed like he
had the technique down, but he had the instincts. He really did a
good job with tracking and reading, even at the higher level, because he
was playing up until the year he got drafted, he was playing one,
sometimes two essentially levels above where his age group was, and so he ended
up playing his first league a game in Finland his draft year, played most
of the next year at the essentially finished HL level, and then moved up
to the high level Liga the following year, and they really just wanted to
work on his condition and getting him through longer hauls, through essentially larger bodies
of work. And unfortunately the COVID season through things a little a kimbo for
him, and then he also got injured, so he had a pretty pretty
lengthy injury. I believe it was lower body, but don't definitively quote me
on that. Finland's a little more reserved with sharing info about player injuries sometimes.
And when he came back, he'd been out for like half the season.
He missed I believe most of his off season because of it, and
then it was just a long adjustment to getting back to the level that he
had been at. And by the time he got back there, he then
moved over to North America, so he had that learning curve of then after
spending a season kind of recuperating and getting his game back where it had been,
moved over to North America. And it seems like once he got his
feet under him in North America, his stats have looked better. Like you
said, he from the underlying numbers looked much better last year than he had
the year prior. He's fun to watch. He's a weird one because a
lot of the finished goaltenders we think of as being really exciting to watch and
having that super fast paced game. We think about the Kari letton AND's and
the anti Miamis and the anti Rontas and when it comes to and then he
plays a really controlled game a lot of the time where he gets himself positionally
set and he can move quickly if he needs to. He's got good skating
power, he just doesn't always use it too much, which can work in
his favor, especially when it comes to that conditioning area. I just think
they were trying to make it so that he didn't have to rely on his
techniques so much. He was he felt confident in playing a game that did
need to move a little faster paced without timing himself out throughout it. So
if he hits that level where it seems like he is able to play that
controlled technical game at a faster pace over forty games fifty games this season,
I think he could easily be a starter. I just haven't gotten to see
him do that yet. I think he had some ebbs and flows last year,
so I don't want to throw all my cards in his basket right now.
But he has a lot of fun to watch, and he's one that
I've been hoping will make it to the NHL within the next year or two.
Here, i'd say, yeah, definitely. He's someone we've been tracking
for a while, so that would be fun to see. Hopefully he'll get
a couple more opportunities, but this next guy might eat into his chances because
Arvid Holme is the next guy we're going to talk about. He was a
Winnipeg draft pick, sixth rounder, and yeah, yeah that it could have
used him. He was drafted way back in twenty seventeen. He's six seven,
two hundred five pounds and they let him go. He's signed in Colorado
on the off season. It was a great pickup for them. I think
I was getting excited about him in Winnipeg, but I think his path might
be even clearer in Colorado. We just talked about and an end a whole
other major roadblocks. I guess Georgiev he seems like not the setting stone starter
forever and home has some really good equivalencis if you look at it. He
started off in the twenty thirties and the model, and he ended in the
sixty seventy or five percent range of being an NHL, which is really high.
He's got some really good comps, guys like Jose Theodore or martem Burn.
I think he looks a lot like anders Nielsen in this model, who
was more of a backup but could take the reins and play if needed.
And Holmes underlyings were near the top of the league and saved percent above expected,
which is really nice, So, Kat, what can your instincts tell
us about Arvid Holme. They still think it's hilarious that Whinnipeg Spritley needs young,
good goaltenders with the Connor Hellabook era coming to an end and they're letting
these guys go. But he's an interesting when I always get a little nervous
when a guy's that big because of guys like Andrew's Nielsen and Jacob mark Strummond
Andres Lenbach, who once you reach a certain size level there's that injury risk.
Obviously, Connor Hello books not small and he's done just fine with that.
But I like some of the essentially watching some of the film on him,
I thought he looked good. I wasn't really sure why he was allowed
to walk. May have been that he just didn't want to stick around.
And I believe Colin dalia is headed to Winnipeg as well, so they were
They already had that kind of tweener. That guy who could essentially split time
between the HL and NHL for them and home figured that he didn't really have
a spot there and got crowded out. Yeah, I don't really understand Colorado
has been doing because they keep picking up guys that other teams let walk instead
of trading for goaltending prospects. I think hoping that they'll find a diamond in
the rough there somewhere. That always makes me a little nervous when it's a
guy that they can pick up for free versus someone that's coveted. But I
don't think he can be worse than some of the other prospects that they've had
Over the last couple of years. I've been a little, almost a little
hypercritical of some of the goaltenders that Colorado has chosen to essentially enter their seasons
with as their number threes and fours. They very notably had Hunter Miska,
who couldn't break a starting role in the HL for the Arizona Coyotes, and
they picked him up and ended up having to play him for a chunk in
the NHL during the year, and that really didn't work out in their favor.
And then they had a one of the Buffalo Sabers guys who couldn't really
hold his own there and hoped that might work out in their favor. They
spent to Martin who really struggled for them, And I'm hoping that this is
a sign that maybe they're taking things in a different direction, because Home did
look good during his games with the Moose, so we'll see. He's one
that I think he hasn't done anything to stand out over Italy for me,
And when a Peg needs goaltenders so badly that I'm a little nervous when they
let someone go. But yeah, I don't think that. I think the
good news is that Colorado doesn't meet him immediately, so they can pick up
a couple of guys like him and just kind of see what happens, see
if they can make magic with someone that really is getting overlooked elsewhere. Yeah,
that sounds good. Do you think it's still an nan in the projected
potential start of the future or do you think that Holme has some say in
that. I think Home could surprise us, And do you surp Anon?
And I think that the overall plan, and that might be why they haven't
traded for someone who's essentially a Tier one prospect of some kind, is that
they are trying to make sure that they don't block In and then from getting
his opportunity. So they're bringing in guys like Holme who are going to be
solid for them. But aren't necessarily going to make it hard for their true
prospect to get a shot. But I think if he outperforms and in this
year, I think it's time to take a hard look at whether or not
and then really is what he initially was advertised as being, which is the
starter of their future. So I think he founded his last year to prove
to us that he is really able to establish himself confidently in North America.
Sounds good. Thanks for giving us your instincts on the color Avalanche goalies will
be back right after this. Dig the dynasty. Dig Colorado Avalanche dynasty talk.
This is such a good team, one would expect that they probably don't
have the best farm system in the world, and they don't. It's rank
twenty six according to Victor's ranks. Nonetheless, as usual, there are some
players you should be interested in for your dynasty purposes that all starts out with
your no brainer, Victor, who is that for the Avs. The no
brainer for the Avalanche is Sean Barons, twenty twenty one second round pick by
Colorado. He's a five ten, one hundred and seventy six pound left handed
d so maybe slightly undersized, I guess you could say in terms of the
height and the weight. He was drafted out of the usn TDP was Barons
and he spent the last two seasons at the University of Denver. His point
pace went from sixty four as a freshman to fifty five as a sophomore,
but he did have a larger defensive burden to carry and so his role shifted
a little bit. And this season he had three goals, eighteen assists and
thirty one games. That's how he got there, and he represented the US
at the U twenty World Junior Championships, where he had three points in seven
games. Definitely not the offensive centerpiece of that team. From the back end.
With Luke Hughes, it's unclear whether he's returning for his junior season.
He certainly could, that seems like a pretty viable option. He also could
turn pro and playing the HL. It seems like more likely he'll go back
to college is it probably needs a little bit more seasoning there and get those
point totals up, but that's remained to be seen. He's unsigned at the
moment. He didn't get any HL games at the end of last season,
which was a possibility for him, so that's another reason to make me think
he'll do one more year of college. Looking at Brown's tracking data, well,
the defense is really good, which is good, he's a defenseman.
He has a ninety eight overall scores and really excellent at entries prevented defensive play
corsi against retrieval success. Also really top notch for some of the offensive metrics
like expected primary assist per sixty super high on one of the best in the
NC DOUBLEA, so that's pretty cool. Some of the things too, like
slop pass is good. Expected goals per sixty also pretty good and really not
a lot of negatives. His transition game rated and at seventy eight, and
really the only negative thing was cross lane plays per sixty, So some specific
types of transition, but overall the transition game is good and his overall scores
in ninety five, so looking really good in college based on seven games tracked
by Mitch Brown. Both offense and defense I think definitely in this chart even
shows he leans more towards the defensive side, but I think the offense is
maybe a little underrated. So let's hear a little bit more about Sean Barrens
from our FHL Scout Yeah, absolutely, University of Denver pretty good team to
be a part of. Last year our FHL scout Jeremy says this of mister
Baron's skating is above average, very strong into skates and good edgework, fast
enough to keep up with most players. Passing and handling elite, very strong
entry and exit skills, shooting above average. He's got a good release from
the point, but not a sniper IQ elite. Great vision, knows when
to jump into play, good at reading plays Defensively. As far as defense
is concerned, Jeremy says above average, very good rush defender average in zone.
Best aspect asset is his anticipation of where the forward wants to go with
the puck, often stepping into them or cutting off passing lanes before they happen,
and the best asset is vision and lack of panic with the puck.
The biggest concern He's got to get a little stronger. He's willing to be
physical, but still is easy to out muscle. The top tier outcome for
this guy. Second pairing power Play two sixty points says Jeremy probably needs a
trade to out of Colorado to hit this though, as he probably won't surpass
mccarr or by in Jeremy's estimation, may get some chance as soon if Tays
goes to unrestricted free agency and the middling outcome the fiftieth percentile, a bottom
pairing, puck mover with powerplay to opportunities, stylistic comparable, but he's not
going to go on even another roster. He's gonna say sam Gerard Swift,
skating zone exit machines, cool under pressure, not elite scores. So Sean
Barrens, let's go to the NHL rank King Mason Black, who has provided
some p NHL E similarity scores some pretty sparkling names for this guy, mister
Sewan Barrens Owen power is the number one as it comes out, and Jamie
Drysdale and Shay Theodore right behind. So very nice. It's between a first
and second line potential as far as first second pairing for his equivalency. And
he compared Sean Barns in the poll to Jackson Lecombe, the twenty nineteen second
round pick of the Anaheim Ducks, because Anaheim has all the defenseman. Mason
Black's poll Barons versus Lacombe comes out Barns fifty three percent to Lacombe forty seven
percent. Victor, is that what you would do Barons over Lacombe. I
would I like Barons a little bit more. I think he's, as we
mentioned, a little maybe underrated Offensively. Both these guys are several steps back
or seven paces back on the pecking order. I would say they're not the
top prospects, but both really good and I think probably both a little underrated.
Jackson Lecombe is probably one of the most underrated prospect defenseman. The thing
though, is he probably is going to be better in real life than for
your fantasy team, and so that's one reason why maybe people a little less
excited about him or just not as not thinking about him as much. And
I'm not banging the table for him because even though he is great, he's
probably not going to be super exciting in terms of fantasy, but you are
going to like having him on your team in terms of playing a NHL games,
and he's going to get a little bit of a runway there. So
don't forget about Lacombe. I think he's he's someone to notice and to mention,
but I think I'm taking Barons. He has more offense, depending Yeah,
we don't know what the blue len is going to be by the time
he gets there in Denver. It's probably going to be another couple of years.
And yeah, maybe Taves moves on, so he's not going to take
over m carr. But and there's byronim too, obviously, but he could
get some nice secondary scoring. So I like Barons. If you just look
at the hockey prospecting between the two, it's much higher for Barons in terms
of the star potential. He's at nineteen percent and Lacombe was basically in the
five to eight to five to three percent of being a star, So Barons
is much higher. And both were in an NC double A a similar time
Jackson lacomb one year older and NHLO probability is actually higher for Barons. Just
looking at the comps for Barons individually, he's got some guys like Adam Clyndenning,
Joe Morrow, Michael Benning that aren't that exciting. Cal Foot is someone
he looks a little bit alike, who's the defenseman drafted by Tampa didn't quite
work out too offensively but became an NHLer, So you know, maybe there's
some similarities there and the Jay fresh card just two percent chance of being a
star for Barons forty two percent chance of being an n Chiller. A lot
more pessimistic as usual, Jessey, Yes, sir, talk about two systems
where guys are getting buried in the systems as far as defenseman, Anaheim and
Colorado would be pretty high on that list. Picker up next. I believe
we're ready to talk about the need to know prospect. Who is it need
to know? Is Calum Ritchie the first round pick from this past year twenty
seventh overall? They actually had a couple of first but he was the twenty
seventh overall six two hundred and eighty seven pound point per game and fifty nine
games for the Oshawa Generals. Was Kellum Richie of the OHL, and he
had slightly more assistant goals twenty four goals thirty five assists in fifty nine games.
Nice step forward from his D minus one season. He's a January birthday,
so two more days, two more years of the OHL. And I
don't know if people remember, but you got to listen back to the draft
content we did, and when I talked with Tony Ferrari of the Hockey News
He discussed how Richie had a shoulder injury all season and he debated shutting it
down, but he wanted to show a little bit of what he could do
to help his draft stock, so he played through it and it really affected
his shot, his ability to puck handle, his ability to do everything,
so he was really limited. And we talked about Richie as someone who could
absolutely pop off next year because he should be healthy offseason surgery, and he
couldn't actually shoot the puck without pain. He can puck handle without pain,
so that'll be fun to see and maybe he'll be someone that'll really take a
step. I've been drafting Richie and a lot of drafts and with my second
round pick, and I'm really hoping that he does big things next year and
then maybe I can trade him for a closer asset. But I'm expecting big
things from Callum Richie. Looking at his tracting data from Mitch Brown's data set,
he overall ranks at a ninety three. Offense is really good. In
particular his expected goals for sixty. The slot passes are good, the expected
primary assists aren't as good. He's definitely more a goal scorer that had trouble
scoring because he had an injury with his shoulder, so that should improve next
year. The defense is okay, sixty three percentile, not amazing, but
some of his transition game is really good and also some of the hottikel Cash
likes to say, if you look at the bottom box, it's what's called
the translatability factors, and so things like advantages created off puck assists, which
is a big one that we always talk about aspects what do they do away
from the puck? That's huge, and he does really well on that department.
And expected primary point involvement percent was also off the charts, So Colin
Richie really good and some of these tracking track data areas. But let's hear
a little bit more about what makes him special from our FHL scout. Yes,
indeed our scout is Punitte on this one. And what did Punite have
to say about our guy, mister Ritchie. He says average skating isn't the
most dynamic, but that offsets based on his size being a positive factor.
Passing and handling. His passing and stick handling is elite. He's very well
known and adept to maintaining puck possession when the puck is on his stick.
He was dealing with a shoulder injury the season, which resulted in surgery this
off season. Nonetheless, still possesses the skills for shooting. It's something that
would be a skill he needs to work on, says Punit. Typically focuses
on driving the play, making plays for teammates, passing. His solid does
have a strong and heavy wrist shot that is deceptive, but because he does
not shoot as much as a center typically shoots, he's able to throw off
the opposition goalie IQ very low panic meter demonstrated top tier hockey. IQ good
at breaking down the play, assessing his options when moving up the ice or
checking. This is one where Putting says something's up here because he's not using
his large frame to knock players off the puck. Maybe something to do with
that injured shoulder that played into part of his game last year. So difficult
to assess what his for checking game will look like. However, when the
offensive zone, he is certainly not afraid of going into the corners to get
puck or maintain puck possession. Defense, very good defensive game, strong on
the face offs, very well aware of his surroundings in the defensive zone.
Best asset, the large frame allows for him to keep the puck away from
opponents. He plays very strong fundamental hockey. The biggest concern at times he
can be too unselfish. He's a great teammate to play with as he helps
dishof passes to his fellow wingers, but he does need to at times just
pull the trigger and take more shots himself. He can also at times be
inconsistent from game to game that needs to be worked on top tier outcome potential
to hit her a top tier top two ceiling. With this style of playing
with the talent that is on Colorado, his creativity would certainly flourish. Taking
Colorado out of the equation, he'd still be able to drive a first or
second line with tier three as the floor, presumably if he got the role
in Colorado we're talking about here fiftieth percentile of the median outcome. The skill,
talent and driver definitely there. He has the potential to be a top
or second line center on most teams. For this Colorado Avalanche team, it
may be a little hard to get there, but he could certainly still be
a second or third liner. Stylistic comparatable on the very high end on j
Kopatar, but that's shooting for the moon on the lower end, more realistically,
closer to a Boon Genner type of profile is what Poon needs, says,
And now onto the NHL ranking. Our guy Mason Black, who gives
us the p NHL E equivalences and for call him Richie Patrick Sharp is the
number one equivalence. He followed by Michael Latta and Vincent Trocheck. So that's
interesting, kind of a just above second line potential outcome as far as the
translation. And for a comparison for a vote for the people, for the
public, for democracy, we have Kelham Richie versus Gavin Brindley who was taking
seven picks after Richie in this year's draft, and when the results were received
off the internet, Gavin Brindley had defeated Kelham Richie fifty five to forty five
percent. Is that how you see this one? Victor? Definitely not.
I love it. I like Kevin Brindley. He's fun, he's a big
ball of energy. He's really difficult to play against. He's someone who is
the coach's dream. When we talked about him in the draft episodes, we
talked about how he was used a ton at Michigan, one of the top
used forwards, and they had a bunch of really high skilled, high scoring
forwards, and Brindley was one of the guys who commanded more ice time than
maybe some people would have expected, and he did do a little bit better
in terms of the equivalency, scoring a pretty good clip. I think the
big issue is that Kevin Brindley is five foot nine and I'm not sure how
much more he's going to grow. He's really small, and he is someone
who is going to have a lot of barriers to playing and he skates all
the defense things that she talked about. He's got offense, so he has
a lot of other things that you like. There's really not a whole lot
of downside other than his size, but that is going to be a big
limitation, and especially the style he plays is more of a bottom six energy
type forward, so I'm not sure that's going to command power play time.
Richie. I feel like we didn't really see everything that Callum Richie can do,
and so I think that I'm more excited about him. I think he
has a higher ceiling. I think he's going to be a goal scorer.
I could see him. I could see Calum Richie really taking things to the
next level this season. Talked about the injury and how much he scored,
and the fact that he had more assistant goals in his draft season and clearly
had trouble shooting the puck. I really expect him to do a lot more.
He had twenty four goals this season after only after nineteen and his D
minus one season. He could potentially double his goal total in the OHL,
and I think that wouldn't be too incredibly surprising. With his shot, he
just needs a little bit more support around him, but that would help.
But yeah, I would definitely take Colum Richie. He doesn't have the size
issues, he doesn't have the other limitations that Brindley has, but definitely a
decent prospect in Brindley. Of course, it also helps that Calum Ricci is
like the only good forward basically left in the Colorado Valanced system, So you
gotta like that when you look at the hockey prospect in between these two,
Calum Richie has a twenty percent chance of being a star, Brinley twenty five.
They both have a similar NHL or probabilities, so they look pretty similar
in this model. If you look at just Ritchie by himself, there's some
not super exciting comps. A lot of them are replacement level producers, guys
like Austin Watson, which wouldn't be terribly exciting. The Top Town Hockey model
from Jay Fresh has Colin Ritchie at seven percent chance of being a star,
thirty five percent chance of being in an each other. It's pretty skeptical,
but again I would say he was injured and we have to wait and see
what he's gonna do next year because all those things could really come up very
good. And finally, to keep your eye on prospect picture, who is
keep your eye on is the other first round pick for the Avalanche. Mikhail
Guayev twenty twenty three, first round, thirty first overall, five, ten
hundred and seventy two pound, left handed d late April birthday. So he
played this whole season as a seventeen year old. Basically, he was in
Russia and primarily played in the MHL, where he was way too good for
that league. Then he split time basically between the VHL and KHL, where
obviously things didn't go quite as well. It's not as easy, but two
goals twenty three assists in twenty five games in the MHL for over point per
game is actually twenty two games is way good for the MHL for a defenseman,
and he's in the avant garde OMSK system there. He's currently unstein who
he's staying in Russia, who knows for how long, but he definitely needs
a little bit more work to do. You want to see him in the
KHL for at least a year or two before expecting to come over. But
let's hear a little bit more about what makes mckel gy of so interesting from
our FHL scout. Our FHL scout for this guy is Brandon, and Brandon
has this to say about McKiel gould gayev he's as far as skating light on
its feet, takes advantage of his smallest frame by having a quick, crisp
acceleration. Rarely has to show off his edge work in tight as he is
so spatially aware that he tends to avoid being in close quarters when carrying the
pucket at top speeds, easily can shift into the lanes that open up as
he encroaches the opposition coverage, passing confident and heads up puck mover that makes
receiving his passes look easy. When breaking the puck out, he tends to
skate the puck from behind the net to near the top of the circles before
moving the puck. This allows him to set the tempo and dynamically change the
look of passing lanes. Long stretch passes across two zones are a rather rare
occurrence, although they are executed with accuracy and gusto when they are made.
He can make quick rangy passes in the ozone to set up one timers that
forced the goaltender to dramatically move laterally. Shooting shot of all varieties are not
necessarily hard or fast. They seem to be made as a strategic puck movement
choice that puts the puck in a more dangerous and dynamic position near the net
via rebounce. His shots also seem to be set up to be easily tipped
by a NetFront presence. IQ attentively poised in a semi laid back manner at
a distance, often reads plays well spatial and is often in the right position
relative to the puck and puck carrier, and he rose to the occasion and
elevated his game intensity traumatically across the board in the viewing during the playoff series
versus Scott. For checking, he primarily contributes by moving the puck up the
ice to the forward group after taking a couple of moments to alter the pace
of the game. Shows the ability to keep control of the puck and to
skate with it into gain zone entry before passing it. Often he makes it
look easy at times, and Brandon would actually like to see him attempt more
often to carry the puck deeper into the zone and allow teammates to get in
more dangerous pass option positions. For defense, he stays very square to the
puck carrier entering the zone, uses excellent gap control, quietly active stick to
disrupt the time and time again. After Guyaya frees up the puck, he
is quick to make a short pass to when open its supportive teammate to initiate
the transition game, and if it is a first attempt to thwart the puck
carrier fails, he ends up causing a wake of spatial disruption that can result
in the puck carrier stopping short and mishandling the puck. The best asset for
Guliayev positioning and play disruption facilitated by subtle edgework and patients. The biggest concern
the shot is not that threatening. The top tier outcome for Guliayev middle pairing,
few goals, many secondary assists to flirt with forty points low peripherals aside
from takeaways and the middle outcome fiftieth percentile depth. Defenseman that could catch lightning
in a bottle for a stretch of games or a season and be seen as
a hidden gem or underrated. The stylistic comparable shades of an offensively passive Liligrin
mixed with the skating and posture of Spurgeon. So Gliayev in the NHL Rank
King courtesy of Mason Black, Where does he come out? His number one
comp in terms of p NHL E equivalency is Hampas Lindholm, followed by Jeff
Petrie and nick Yannick rathgib And it is actually low. It's actually below second
line potential, pretty low, which is just surprising given some of the names
that I just said. But in terms of a comparison, Mikael Guyayev was
selected in the second to the last pick of the first round this year,
is being compared to ty Nelson Seattle Crack and Pick from the third round of
the twenty twenty two draft, and in that comparison, that competition out on
the internet one hundred and fifty seven votes, Mikael Guyaye decisively winning that poll
seventy three to twenty seven percent. Is this one as much as slam dunk
for you, Victor as the Internet makes it look? Yeah, I think
so. I think that's maybe a little disrespectful to ty Nelson. I think
he's better than getting almost three times as many votes, more than three times.
I do think that Nelson is a decent prospect, and he's got a
lot of truculence to his game, and he seems pretty likely to be an
NHLer, even though he's slightly undersized. We've talked about him a bunch actually
on this show and the DPR Show. He's come up a couple of times.
I really do like him. I'm not sure that the offense is going
to be the biggest thing. I think ty Nelson is much more likely a
little pairing, tough defenseman to play against kind with some offense, not too
much. Michael Giliayev, on the other hand, you're not really going to
have out there unless he's pushing play getting some offensive chances. In some ways,
he actually reminds me a little bit of Byrom, just how he's so
offensive, so creative, so good in transition, pushes the pace. But
he definitely needs to round out the rest of his game. He was a
little adventurous at times in the MHL and needs to learn how to play that
more structured game, and you don't know how to defend better. But I
think the upside with Glia is definitely higher. Definitely a secondary offensive piece that
Colorado could be pretty good there. Maybe they end up moving him too and
he goes to another team and is their top power play quarterback. So there's
a lot to like with Gliayev. He definitely I think it is a little
less secure in terms of his projectability, but he is looking really strong in
terms of the upside. If you look at Hockey prospecting, he has an
eighty three percent star potential, which is crazy high. But I think that's
entirely based on his MHL data, which is a relatively small sample size but
looks really elite for high point producer in the MHL. Nelson, on the
other hand thirteen percent chance of being a star seventy percent chance of being NHLer,
so a little bit lower, but actually pretty decent. That Nelson was
able to raise his star potential from his draft season, which is really hard
to do. Looking at some other comps, GUI I have has three I
think we mentioned this in the Draft episode three hilarious comps, which are Michael
Dale's Otto, Scott Niedermeyer, and Ryan Merkley. Those three almost couldn't be
more different, right like NHL bus like pretty average NHLer and then all time
legend. So yeah, probably somewhere in between all those, right, Like,
I don't know where a GLI I have is Gonna Land. I don't
think he's Scott Nieddmyer, but I also I think he can defend better than
Merkeley, which is not a high bar to pass. So we'll have to
see if he can improve that well enough and translate that game to the professional
ranks, because he really didn't do that too much. Most of that high
end production was in the MHL, so we need to see it in the
VHL and the KHL. The Jay Fresh Car has mckail guy have at eight
percent chance of being a star, sixty seven percent chance of being in NHL
or so not bad for just draft a guy. But yeah, Jesse,
there's more guys we could talk about, but there's no time. If you're
a patron, you can listen to my top ten prospect rank recap per team.
We'll break down all thought prospects on the Avalanche, and if you're interested
in doing any scouting, you can shoot me a DM on Twitter, discord,
or email us. There always are more, Victor, there always are
more. We're gonna come back after just a minute, and cools out.
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