1 00:00:18,039 --> 00:00:21,640 We're back with another edition of The Federalist Radio Hour. I'm Emily Jashinski, 2 00:00:21,679 --> 00:00:24,559 culture editor here at the Federalist. As always, you can email the show 3 00:00:24,600 --> 00:00:29,000 at radio at the Federalist dot com, follow us on x at fdr LST. 4 00:00:29,239 --> 00:00:32,320 Make sure to subscribe wherever you download your podcasts, and of course to 5 00:00:32,399 --> 00:00:36,159 the premium version of our website, The Federalist dot Com as well. Today 6 00:00:36,200 --> 00:00:40,000 we are joined by Michael Sobolek. He is the author of the new book 7 00:00:40,200 --> 00:00:45,240 Countering China's Great Game. He also wrote an article recently for Foreign Policy that 8 00:00:45,280 --> 00:00:50,200 I've found fascinating. It's called She's Imperial Ambitions are rooted in China's history. 9 00:00:50,280 --> 00:00:55,320 Michael is a Senior Fellow at the American Foreign Policy Council. Thanks so much 10 00:00:55,320 --> 00:00:58,479 for joining us. Michael, Hey, Emily, thanks so much for having 11 00:00:58,520 --> 00:01:02,079 me. This is a real pleasure. Yeah. Of course. One question 12 00:01:02,359 --> 00:01:04,200 it's occurring to me right now that I've never asked you, in particular, 13 00:01:04,400 --> 00:01:10,439 is how on earth did you end up specializing in China? Michael by accident, 14 00:01:10,680 --> 00:01:12,959 So tell us the story. Yeah, okay, So this takes us 15 00:01:14,000 --> 00:01:19,640 back to twenty ten, and I was an undergrad in my penultimate semester at 16 00:01:19,719 --> 00:01:23,599 Texas A and M University, and I got into this internship, this fully 17 00:01:23,599 --> 00:01:30,719 funded internship abroad program through A and M. And I was originally angling to 18 00:01:30,760 --> 00:01:34,280 go to London because it was my first time to ever leave America and I 19 00:01:34,359 --> 00:01:38,159 thought, you know, like Britain feels like a really safe foray into foreign 20 00:01:38,200 --> 00:01:42,719 travel for me. But like long story short, London didn't work out and 21 00:01:42,760 --> 00:01:45,959 I had to pick a new country, and on the advice of my dad, 22 00:01:46,400 --> 00:01:49,599 I knowing nothing about foreign policy at the time, just checked the box 23 00:01:49,680 --> 00:01:53,439 next to China, and just on a whim, went to China the first 24 00:01:53,439 --> 00:02:00,680 time I traveled internationally, and it was absolutely incredible. We we live with 25 00:02:00,719 --> 00:02:04,319 some host families. We stay there for about five weeks, did a whole 26 00:02:04,359 --> 00:02:08,560 bunch of traveling, had really great conversations with young students, young folks there 27 00:02:08,560 --> 00:02:14,360 as well, and I left even before I really had a deep appreciation for 28 00:02:14,400 --> 00:02:19,840 the national security dynamics between Washington and Beijing. I got to see China for 29 00:02:19,919 --> 00:02:23,319 what it was culturally, civilizationally, and just to kind of see the people 30 00:02:23,439 --> 00:02:25,319 up close at a time when China was a bit more open than it is 31 00:02:25,400 --> 00:02:31,319 today. In twenty twenty four, and I left with this deep fascination of 32 00:02:31,639 --> 00:02:38,840 this country that I haven't really been able to shake since then. So the 33 00:02:38,879 --> 00:02:42,919 time period there is particularly interesting. This is, you know, ten years 34 00:02:42,919 --> 00:02:46,199 into wto the Obama. I don't know what we would call it. Would 35 00:02:46,199 --> 00:02:49,759 you call it a thaw? Michael, tell us about what you saw when 36 00:02:49,800 --> 00:02:52,759 you were there? Oh, my word? Okay. So when I was 37 00:02:52,840 --> 00:02:58,319 there, there was this one overnight train that we were on. So we 38 00:02:58,400 --> 00:03:02,199 spend most of our time in Chian, which is an old one of the 39 00:03:02,240 --> 00:03:07,759 former capitals and past dynasties in China's history, and we were traveling a lot 40 00:03:07,759 --> 00:03:10,639 inside of the province and there was this one night, and it must have 41 00:03:10,680 --> 00:03:15,400 been around midnight or one o'clock in the morning or something. On this overnight 42 00:03:15,439 --> 00:03:20,120 train in the middle of China, I brought my Bible with me from America 43 00:03:20,759 --> 00:03:23,960 and I opened it and just started reading. And a lot of the students 44 00:03:24,000 --> 00:03:28,439 that were traveling with us, there were Chinese university students, and they were 45 00:03:28,479 --> 00:03:32,759 also aspiring members of the Chinese Communist Party. And as many of your listeners 46 00:03:32,800 --> 00:03:39,560 will know, the CCP is a decidedly atheistic organization. So when they noticed 47 00:03:39,560 --> 00:03:44,080 me reading a Bible openly, and of course they saw I was an American. 48 00:03:44,639 --> 00:03:47,479 They had a lot of questions, and we had this really frank, 49 00:03:47,680 --> 00:03:54,759 open conversation about religion and Christianity in the middle of China and this overnight train. 50 00:03:54,879 --> 00:04:00,159 And I don't really know that those kind of interactions would happen today. 51 00:04:00,879 --> 00:04:06,360 I think the risk the risks involved are certainly higher today than they were back 52 00:04:06,400 --> 00:04:11,520 then. And in some ways you're right, like the relationship between Washington and 53 00:04:11,560 --> 00:04:15,680 Beijing was a lot friendlier at that time. Part of that was because of 54 00:04:15,720 --> 00:04:20,000 the policies that the Obama administration was implementing and pursuing. I think I agree 55 00:04:20,000 --> 00:04:26,480 with you on that they certainly tried to embrace and engage Beijing whenever and wherever 56 00:04:26,600 --> 00:04:30,600 they could. I think that was a strategic mistake. But as we've seen 57 00:04:30,639 --> 00:04:36,000 over time, the relationship has grown quite a bit more confrontational, particularly after 58 00:04:36,199 --> 00:04:41,800 COVID, and here we are today with more and more people talking about us 59 00:04:41,800 --> 00:04:47,720 being in a cold war. Yeah. Absolutely, And what I thought was 60 00:04:47,959 --> 00:04:53,959 especially helpful about the Foreign Policy article, which I know is much discussed, 61 00:04:53,959 --> 00:04:58,519 a topic much discussed in the book, again, countering China's Great Game is 62 00:04:59,040 --> 00:05:03,360 the history and obviously people know about how trying to looks at its own history 63 00:05:03,399 --> 00:05:08,800 and ways that are often different from the West's perspective on its own history. 64 00:05:09,199 --> 00:05:15,079 But can you talk to us about the legacy of imperialism that Shei Jinping is 65 00:05:15,160 --> 00:05:17,959 drawing on, and then maybe we can talk a little bit about how she 66 00:05:18,120 --> 00:05:21,399 Jinping is drawing on the legacy. But just if you could tell us a 67 00:05:21,399 --> 00:05:25,879 little bit of the history itself, that would be super helpful. Yeah. 68 00:05:25,920 --> 00:05:32,000 So, this book that you've graciously mentioned a few times, Counter in China's 69 00:05:32,040 --> 00:05:38,560 Great Game, is the first book I've ever written, and part of the 70 00:05:38,800 --> 00:05:43,920 book release process I discovered along the way was strategically trying to get the most 71 00:05:44,079 --> 00:05:49,639 either interesting or the most controversial portions of your book published as excerpts. And 72 00:05:49,959 --> 00:05:55,879 I thought to myself, what what are some of the more controversial claims I 73 00:05:56,040 --> 00:06:01,480 make in the book and at least in the China sphere. So for those 74 00:06:01,839 --> 00:06:05,959 for your listeners who are following the China debate very closely, I think this 75 00:06:06,000 --> 00:06:10,519 will make intuitive sense to them. For those who are not, just to 76 00:06:10,600 --> 00:06:15,399 just bear with me for a second. So the article in Foreign Policy that 77 00:06:15,439 --> 00:06:20,639 you just mentioned about Shijiping's imperial ambitions in the history of China's foreign policy. 78 00:06:21,439 --> 00:06:27,959 In that article, I make a really simple argument. A lot of American 79 00:06:28,000 --> 00:06:34,160 policy makers and China experts in Washington kind of assume that China's history started in 80 00:06:34,240 --> 00:06:42,160 nineteen forty nine when Mao Zeidong established the People's Republic of China. Now, 81 00:06:42,360 --> 00:06:46,199 something that I think is widely agreed upon bipartisan lely, and I think it's 82 00:06:46,240 --> 00:06:50,279 a good thing, is that American policy makers need to focus on the Chinese 83 00:06:50,279 --> 00:06:56,680 Communist Party and not lump the Chinese people into this cold war that we're in. 84 00:06:57,560 --> 00:07:00,720 The Chinese people suffer under the CCP every single day, and it doesn't 85 00:07:00,720 --> 00:07:08,120 make strategic or even moral sense for America to target the Chinese people as the 86 00:07:08,199 --> 00:07:13,879 object of our competition. But I think that we are at risk of missing 87 00:07:13,959 --> 00:07:20,279 a really important strategic reality if we just focus on the CCP. When you 88 00:07:20,319 --> 00:07:25,399 are locked in a cold war with an adversary, one of the biggest things 89 00:07:25,480 --> 00:07:30,120 you need is data about your competitor. You need to understand not only what 90 00:07:30,199 --> 00:07:32,920 they're doing in the world, but why they're doing it, what makes them 91 00:07:32,920 --> 00:07:38,879 tick, how they view themselves, how they view themselves cosmically like what's their 92 00:07:38,920 --> 00:07:43,759 strategic culture? And we grappled with all these questions with the Soviets during the 93 00:07:43,800 --> 00:07:47,240 First Cold War. And one of the biggest benefits that the United States has 94 00:07:47,360 --> 00:07:53,040 right now is that we have more data on China than they have on us. 95 00:07:53,240 --> 00:07:56,519 And the reason for that is so simple. The United States is a 96 00:07:56,639 --> 00:08:05,600 very young nation historically speaking, but China is this ancient civilization and culture that 97 00:08:05,839 --> 00:08:11,720 predates by millennia the establishment of modern China today, the People's Republic of China. 98 00:08:13,240 --> 00:08:16,480 So in this book and in that article from Foreign Policy, I basically 99 00:08:16,560 --> 00:08:22,879 ask, if you study the dynastic era of China's history, what can you 100 00:08:22,959 --> 00:08:26,800 learn about China's foreign policy and what can you learn about how that relates to 101 00:08:26,839 --> 00:08:31,399 what Hijinping and the Chinese Communist Party is doing today. And the answer that 102 00:08:31,439 --> 00:08:35,519 I came to is really simple, and it's China has been an imperialist power 103 00:08:35,559 --> 00:08:39,960 for a very long time. We talk about Russia as an imperialist power a 104 00:08:39,000 --> 00:08:43,639 lot in the United States, and I think that's well earned on Vladimir Putin's 105 00:08:43,679 --> 00:08:48,600 part, but I also think that Xijingping and the CCP is an imperialist power 106 00:08:48,600 --> 00:08:52,200 as well, and I think that we tend to downplay China's colonial foreign policy. 107 00:08:52,840 --> 00:08:56,840 But if you look historically, like from the first Chinese dynasty to the 108 00:08:56,919 --> 00:09:01,679 last one, China expanded by like a factor of four, which is crazy, 109 00:09:01,360 --> 00:09:05,559 and a lot of that expansion was due to wars of offense. So 110 00:09:05,919 --> 00:09:09,559 when we look at what China is doing today, and it's foreign policy with 111 00:09:09,639 --> 00:09:16,039 the Belton Road Initiative and other key projects, it's the outworking of this long 112 00:09:16,039 --> 00:09:22,120 urge and ambition that China has had for millennia to expand its cultural, civilizational, 113 00:09:22,200 --> 00:09:28,200 and political influence in an ever more increasing measure. So when we look 114 00:09:28,240 --> 00:09:33,759 at the bri the Belton Road Initiative, I think it's a mistake to look 115 00:09:33,759 --> 00:09:37,399 at it primarily as an economic venture. It's really a strategic gambit, and 116 00:09:37,480 --> 00:09:46,519 you cannot understand it apart from imperialism and colonialism. Yeah, as you were 117 00:09:46,559 --> 00:09:50,240 talking, I was thinking about either the early stages of the Cold War and 118 00:09:50,519 --> 00:09:54,799 how some people will go back one of my biggest scripes with the left right 119 00:09:54,840 --> 00:09:58,519 now, we can maybe agree myself and someone on the left can maybe agree 120 00:09:58,519 --> 00:10:03,039 on the folly of let's say Alan Dallas or whatever else and different coups. 121 00:10:03,120 --> 00:10:09,480 And again the threat though was very real because Soviets repeatedly said that they had 122 00:10:09,559 --> 00:10:16,519 international ambitions and that they did want to spread global communism around the world. 123 00:10:16,559 --> 00:10:20,279 And they also happened to have nuclear capabilities or we're in the process of developing 124 00:10:20,559 --> 00:10:26,600 nuclear capabilities that were greater than ours or rivaled ours. And some people will 125 00:10:26,600 --> 00:10:31,200 look at this and say Steed and Pang is just trying to do socialism with 126 00:10:31,320 --> 00:10:37,360 Chinese characteristics. As he says it, this is just about making the world 127 00:10:37,399 --> 00:10:41,000 a better place, and the Chinese just have a different philosophy on how to 128 00:10:41,080 --> 00:10:48,080 do it. Why is that sort of dubbish argument wrong? Michael, Yeah, 129 00:10:48,120 --> 00:10:54,399 so, I mean at a really abstract level, like sure, of 130 00:10:54,519 --> 00:11:01,919 course the CCP views the world differently than the United States does. That doesn't 131 00:11:01,960 --> 00:11:07,200 make it inherently okay or inherently good. If you look at number one, 132 00:11:07,240 --> 00:11:16,159 like the rhetoric of the CCP and of Xijingping, they tend to be I 133 00:11:16,159 --> 00:11:20,159 think, a bit more clever than the Soviets were, because Sijingping does know 134 00:11:20,200 --> 00:11:26,799 how to mask the China's ambition to make it more palatable to Western audiences, 135 00:11:26,960 --> 00:11:31,679 like for instance, the Belton Road initiative was originally called the One Belt, 136 00:11:31,679 --> 00:11:39,840 One Road initiative, which is a very declarative, declaritative moniker for a project, 137 00:11:39,879 --> 00:11:43,039 like saying there is one road and there was one path that the whole 138 00:11:43,039 --> 00:11:50,399 world is going to take under China's leadership. Once eventually the powers that be 139 00:11:50,519 --> 00:11:54,240 in Beijing realized that this wasn't going over too well in Washington and in parts 140 00:11:54,279 --> 00:12:00,960 of Europe. They rebranded to the more boring sounding Belton Road Initiative. So 141 00:12:01,480 --> 00:12:07,279 I do think that the CCP is aware of how they are perceived by the 142 00:12:07,360 --> 00:12:13,120 United States, and they've they've they tend to be pretty good at rebranding whenever 143 00:12:13,159 --> 00:12:16,519 they need to. But if you look at the Belton Road Initiative initially, 144 00:12:16,879 --> 00:12:20,200 when a lot of Western analysts are trying to understand, like what is this 145 00:12:20,320 --> 00:12:24,879 thing, there were a lot of comparisons to the Marshall Plan. So that 146 00:12:24,960 --> 00:12:31,799 was America's efforts after World War two to rebuild Western Europe from the rubble, 147 00:12:31,919 --> 00:12:39,279 from the ruins of warfare with the Nazis and the Soviets, and there was 148 00:12:39,360 --> 00:12:41,960 kind of this grasp of trying to understand like Iseshijing Ping trying to do something 149 00:12:43,039 --> 00:12:46,879 like that is this his effort to try to bring the global South like more 150 00:12:46,960 --> 00:12:52,799 directly and fully into the developing world infrastructure projects, development, That's all part 151 00:12:52,840 --> 00:12:56,840 of what China is doing, and it's I think it's easy for a lot 152 00:12:56,879 --> 00:12:58,919 of folks who tend to be sympathetic of China or just kind of dubvish and 153 00:13:00,080 --> 00:13:03,320 general, it's easy for them to look at and look at that and say, 154 00:13:03,399 --> 00:13:05,759 well, how can you criticize that? I mean, China is doing 155 00:13:05,799 --> 00:13:09,120 what the United States and a lot of Western countries has failed to do up 156 00:13:09,200 --> 00:13:15,759 until now, which is really bring the spoils of globalization to the global South 157 00:13:15,799 --> 00:13:18,679 and like bring wealth and prosperity there. I think that's that's a shallow critique. 158 00:13:18,679 --> 00:13:24,679 But like if for for most of all reasons, that is not China's 159 00:13:24,720 --> 00:13:31,919 primary aim at all, Like they are not funding projects that are sustainable in 160 00:13:31,960 --> 00:13:35,240 any way, shape or form. Like the goal of sustainable sustainable development is 161 00:13:35,279 --> 00:13:43,360 for local peoples and local economies to continue the development after the host party withdraws 162 00:13:43,440 --> 00:13:46,320 and leaves, like that is the goal of US foreign aid on our best 163 00:13:46,440 --> 00:13:52,720 days. But the CCP isn't even trying to do that, Like Chinese workers 164 00:13:52,759 --> 00:13:56,159 are the ones who are building out these BRI projects, and that economic benefit 165 00:13:56,240 --> 00:14:01,279 gets shipped back to China, and the locally, to mees often don't rebound 166 00:14:01,320 --> 00:14:05,559 the benefits as they should. The reason for that is the BRIS primarily a 167 00:14:05,639 --> 00:14:13,159 strategic and an increasingly militaristic gambit for Shijing, being to expand China's political and 168 00:14:13,240 --> 00:14:20,200 military presence and influence around the world. They're doing this in cooperation with local 169 00:14:20,200 --> 00:14:24,559 elites at the expense of the local peoples. That to me is pretty colonial, 170 00:14:26,440 --> 00:14:30,759 not in the sense of they're trying to like actually have sovereign control, 171 00:14:31,000 --> 00:14:33,720 not in that sense, but in a political sense. I do think it 172 00:14:33,759 --> 00:14:37,159 is quite colonial, and it is quite exploitative as well. And if you 173 00:14:37,159 --> 00:14:41,919 look at the Pacific Islands, in Southeast Asia, in Africa and the Middle 174 00:14:41,960 --> 00:14:46,840 East, and in our own hemisphere in Latin America, this is a global 175 00:14:46,919 --> 00:14:50,600 reality. Like China is using the Belton Road to expand its military influence and 176 00:14:50,679 --> 00:14:54,559 presence. And I think that we've been sleeping on this issue for way too 177 00:14:54,600 --> 00:15:01,240 long. Debt keeps you ta and turning at night. You just can't get 178 00:15:01,240 --> 00:15:05,919 away from it. But the truth is the system is designed to trap you 179 00:15:05,000 --> 00:15:09,600 in that debt. Insanely high interest credit cards and loans make it nearly impossible 180 00:15:09,720 --> 00:15:13,480 to pay off your debt. 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And now sort of borrowing from Marx and Hegel, 196 00:16:26,879 --> 00:16:32,600 how deep is shejen Ping from your perspective and with all your expertise here, 197 00:16:32,639 --> 00:16:37,279 Michael, and that kind of idea of material dialectical materialism, meaning that he 198 00:16:37,480 --> 00:16:42,600 sees the world as this sort of struggle towards an end, but that sort 199 00:16:42,639 --> 00:16:48,120 of the means even from his perspective, and this was how Stalin and Trotsky 200 00:16:48,159 --> 00:16:51,080 and Lenin saw the world. The means to that end, we're going to 201 00:16:51,200 --> 00:16:53,879 necessarily be violent and painful and difficult. Is Sijin Ping in that camp? 202 00:16:55,559 --> 00:17:00,919 So I cannot recommend enough a book by one of my friends named Ian Easton. 203 00:17:00,960 --> 00:17:06,599 In the book is called The Final Struggle, and Ian makes the case, 204 00:17:06,680 --> 00:17:11,400 I think, quite convincingly and quite chillingly that Shijingping is kind of a 205 00:17:11,480 --> 00:17:18,880 true believer ideologically on this stuff. Hijingping thought is the touchstone of ideological legitimacy 206 00:17:18,960 --> 00:17:23,200 inside of the People's Republic of China today. It's highly informed by Marxism, 207 00:17:23,319 --> 00:17:30,440 Leninism, it's highly informed by Mao Zedong, and it is the official ideological 208 00:17:30,559 --> 00:17:37,039 line of the Chinese Communist Party. And I think a lot of policy eggheads 209 00:17:37,359 --> 00:17:42,920 in Washington have downplayed ideological concerns about our adversaries for a really long time. 210 00:17:44,319 --> 00:17:48,400 I think eventually, you've got to start listening to your competitors on their own 211 00:17:48,480 --> 00:17:53,200 terms. And when you listen to Shijingping, he has his worldview and it 212 00:17:53,359 --> 00:17:59,319 is quite unlike ours. And I think if we are to ignore that, 213 00:17:59,480 --> 00:18:03,680 we are to make ourselves vulnerable, and we're going to we are to make 214 00:18:03,960 --> 00:18:10,279 his own the likelihood of him achieving his ambitions higher. Like when you do 215 00:18:10,440 --> 00:18:15,480 not respect your adversary enough to take them seriously, that's not a sign of 216 00:18:15,559 --> 00:18:21,440 strategic maturity, that's a sign of strategic hubris. And I think America has 217 00:18:21,519 --> 00:18:25,039 been tempting those fates for a really long time. And I think this is 218 00:18:25,079 --> 00:18:30,519 the one of the really interesting things that I encountered writing this book. The 219 00:18:30,759 --> 00:18:37,480 ideological layer is real in the CCP today, is real under the leadership of 220 00:18:37,559 --> 00:18:45,839 Shijingping, Like the economic tech competition between Washington and Beijing is very real today. 221 00:18:45,720 --> 00:18:51,720 And writing this book, I became more and more convinced that even if 222 00:18:51,759 --> 00:18:55,759 you understand the ideological threats coming from the CCP, even if you get like 223 00:18:55,839 --> 00:19:02,200 the techno authoritarian threats coming from the CCP, the the imperialist angle is really 224 00:19:02,359 --> 00:19:07,359 useful, I think for policy makers, mainly because imperialism is historically a really 225 00:19:07,480 --> 00:19:11,240 bad foreign policy for big nations to pursue because it tends to be self defeating 226 00:19:11,359 --> 00:19:17,160 over time. And I think that Xi Jinping and the Chinese Communist Party today 227 00:19:17,160 --> 00:19:22,240 are engaged in some strategically self defeating behavior and if we, if we are 228 00:19:22,279 --> 00:19:26,720 able to identify what that behavior is, we can begin to exploit it and 229 00:19:26,920 --> 00:19:30,799 force them to compete on strategically weak terrain. And that's one of the biggest 230 00:19:30,839 --> 00:19:36,200 goals of the book. So do you think that's what student paying When we 231 00:19:36,519 --> 00:19:41,960 see these harrowing images, for example, of lithium being mined in the Congo, 232 00:19:44,200 --> 00:19:48,680 or various minerals being mined in just awful conditions in different parts of the 233 00:19:48,759 --> 00:19:56,200 world, for you know, by Chinese contractors or wherever the however the business 234 00:19:56,279 --> 00:20:02,720 arrangements are sometimes just Chinese companies, and whatever the business arrangements are, does 235 00:20:02,839 --> 00:20:07,039 that fit into that sort of Marxist idea of the march of history. And 236 00:20:08,039 --> 00:20:15,960 is that what Tjimping is envisioning when he's sort of plundering the resources of Africa 237 00:20:15,079 --> 00:20:21,279 or China of Africa or South America. Yeah. Sure. So with that 238 00:20:21,680 --> 00:20:27,759 big focus on resources like China and the CCP in particular, I think that 239 00:20:27,960 --> 00:20:37,519 they have identified something that I believe they would characterize as the excesses of capitalism 240 00:20:37,559 --> 00:20:42,680 and the excesses of the West. So their gambit from day one when the 241 00:20:42,799 --> 00:20:51,599 United States started economically and diplomatically engaging the People's Republic of China was these people 242 00:20:51,720 --> 00:20:55,720 talk a big game about freedom. They talk a big game about liberty. 243 00:20:56,599 --> 00:21:00,400 We think it's all a facade. We think we can buy these guys off, 244 00:21:02,039 --> 00:21:06,480 and as long as we pay, they're going to pay lip service to 245 00:21:06,640 --> 00:21:11,119 their ideals about liberty, and they are going to be more than happy to 246 00:21:11,240 --> 00:21:18,240 make a buck off of tyranny. That was the gambit that Dunkshall Ping and 247 00:21:18,359 --> 00:21:22,759 all of his predecessors from Jungsmen, Hujintao and now Shi Jinping have made and 248 00:21:22,839 --> 00:21:29,079 they've been largely correct. Like one of the biggest reasons China has been able 249 00:21:29,160 --> 00:21:33,599 to corner these strategic supply chains, whether it's critical like rare earth minerals like 250 00:21:33,680 --> 00:21:38,119 you just mentioned, Emily, or the supply chains for personal protective equipment, 251 00:21:38,319 --> 00:21:42,440 or for solar panels, or for electric car batteries or for like pick your 252 00:21:42,559 --> 00:21:52,759 category. Essentially, they are doing this out in the open, and everybody 253 00:21:52,880 --> 00:21:56,119 has known that they've been doing it for a very long time. Western companies 254 00:21:56,160 --> 00:22:02,359 and American companies have enabled them to to do this, and they've profited from 255 00:22:02,480 --> 00:22:11,599 China cornering these strategic supply chains. It has made consumer prices insanely low for 256 00:22:11,880 --> 00:22:15,000 decades, like the American people and just you know, everyone in the developing 257 00:22:15,079 --> 00:22:21,400 world benefits from the cheap prices that we pay at Amazon, Walmart in all 258 00:22:21,480 --> 00:22:26,480 these places. Like the level of global prosperity in the context of like human 259 00:22:26,680 --> 00:22:32,599 history today is staggering. That is staggering, and a lot of that, 260 00:22:32,799 --> 00:22:34,839 not all of it, but a whole bunch of it has happened because of 261 00:22:34,960 --> 00:22:41,359 our willingness to allow a Marxist Leninist regime to control global supply chains and a 262 00:22:41,400 --> 00:22:47,720 lot of key industries. And I do think that Shijinping sees that as an 263 00:22:47,799 --> 00:22:53,720 indictment on Western political thought and as a validation of his ideological perspective. And 264 00:22:53,960 --> 00:23:00,039 as long as we don't take serious steps to counter this reality into chaint it's 265 00:23:00,160 --> 00:23:03,799 going to continue to be a huge problem. And one day we're going to 266 00:23:03,839 --> 00:23:06,359 wake up and realize that it's not just a problem, it's a crisis. 267 00:23:07,359 --> 00:23:11,440 What are the I mean? Obviously we've talked on this podcast many times about 268 00:23:11,960 --> 00:23:17,599 the Taiwan situation and how that can evolve into a very immediate threat. We've 269 00:23:17,599 --> 00:23:21,359 talked about that in the context of TikTok, But Michael, what are the 270 00:23:21,440 --> 00:23:25,279 kind of long term threats here? To the average American who says, you 271 00:23:25,359 --> 00:23:29,160 know, maybe just let China live and let live with China, and you 272 00:23:29,240 --> 00:23:32,599 know, let's focus on the problems within our own borders at this point. 273 00:23:33,880 --> 00:23:38,839 What can what could happen, you know, down the road. So maybe 274 00:23:38,960 --> 00:23:47,960 a good starting point is that that sensibility of I hear a lot of people 275 00:23:48,039 --> 00:23:51,559 talking about how dangerous the Chinese Communist Party is, but like, look at 276 00:23:51,599 --> 00:23:56,039 the southern border, Look how dangerous our own homeland security situation is. Like 277 00:23:56,720 --> 00:24:03,200 I really understand that perspective, and I think it's easy if you look at 278 00:24:03,559 --> 00:24:07,720 just cable news or even just social media at some of the mistakes that American 279 00:24:07,799 --> 00:24:14,000 policy makers have made here at home. I think that that maybe like gut 280 00:24:14,119 --> 00:24:19,960 check of distrust of American elites talking about problems abroad like when we do certainly 281 00:24:21,039 --> 00:24:25,880 have our own problems at home, that makes sense. And I think that 282 00:24:26,119 --> 00:24:33,119 the best way to answer that question is to basically say, the Chinese Communist 283 00:24:33,160 --> 00:24:37,519 Party is talked about a lot as a global threat, and it is, 284 00:24:37,960 --> 00:24:41,839 I certainly believe it is. But maybe the best starting point is to recognize 285 00:24:42,480 --> 00:24:48,519 all of the ways that the CCP is a threat inside of America, and 286 00:24:48,640 --> 00:24:56,160 the ways that the Chinese Communist Party have infiltrated our own homeland are inexorably connected 287 00:24:56,279 --> 00:25:00,160 to their global conditions. So what do I mean by that mentioned TikTok Emily 288 00:25:00,519 --> 00:25:04,599 a couple seconds ago? And this is I think the best and also the 289 00:25:04,720 --> 00:25:11,519 most pernicious example of what Beijing is doing. TikTok is a threat today. 290 00:25:12,200 --> 00:25:17,880 It is not a hypothetical threat. It is a real threat to the United 291 00:25:17,920 --> 00:25:22,960 States of America today. About one hundred and seventy million Americans are on this 292 00:25:23,160 --> 00:25:29,960 app monthly. That's like about half of our country. And more and more 293 00:25:30,079 --> 00:25:36,799 young Americans are turning to TikTok as a source of news. Now, forget 294 00:25:36,920 --> 00:25:41,079 what TikTok is saying right now in all of its pr and its litigation in 295 00:25:41,160 --> 00:25:45,640 the courts. They are wrong when they say that the concerns about their app 296 00:25:45,960 --> 00:25:52,400 are about speech. That is absolutely incorrect. The United States Congress recently legislated 297 00:25:52,480 --> 00:25:57,839 on TikTok, not because we're worried about the content on the app. Policymakers 298 00:25:57,880 --> 00:26:04,160 in Washington are earned about TikTok's parent company that is controlled by the Chinese Communist 299 00:26:04,240 --> 00:26:10,039 Party, and TikTok can obfuscate that reality all they want, but it is 300 00:26:10,119 --> 00:26:15,400 impossible to disprove Bite Dance TikTok's parent companies domiciled in China. There have been 301 00:26:15,519 --> 00:26:23,240 instances documented instances of TikTok employees being forced to go outside of the official chain 302 00:26:23,319 --> 00:26:29,160 of command and report not just their activities to Bite Dance executives in Beijing, 303 00:26:29,319 --> 00:26:33,039 but to turn over US user data to executives and Bite Dance in Beijing. 304 00:26:33,759 --> 00:26:41,079 In China, there have been instances of TikTok surveiling US journalists to figure out 305 00:26:41,119 --> 00:26:45,480 who inside of the company was leaking there have been instances documented instances of pro 306 00:26:45,599 --> 00:26:52,119 Hamas content being boosted on TikTok in a way that is disproportionate to the demographics 307 00:26:52,160 --> 00:26:59,640 of users on TikTok. The same goes for content being suppressed about wigers to 308 00:26:59,720 --> 00:27:04,920 bet Ins, Taiwan, tinam and Square massacre, and so many other topics 309 00:27:04,920 --> 00:27:10,359 that are deemed sensitive to Beijing. TikTok has been leveraged by the Chinese Communist 310 00:27:10,400 --> 00:27:15,839 Party and the threat to your question of emily about what could happen one day 311 00:27:17,039 --> 00:27:21,799 if the CCP gives the go order to the People's Liberation Army to go after 312 00:27:21,920 --> 00:27:29,160 Taiwan and if TikTok is still operational in America when that happens, you better 313 00:27:29,279 --> 00:27:33,799 believe that Shijinping is going to do everything he possibly can to leverage TikTok, 314 00:27:33,960 --> 00:27:40,400 not only to sway public opinion against intervening to help Taiwan, or to do 315 00:27:40,559 --> 00:27:44,839 anything to isolate or punish China. He is going to leverage it to so 316 00:27:45,200 --> 00:27:49,400 lies and disinformation about what is actually happening or not happening in the Taiwan straight 317 00:27:51,119 --> 00:27:53,400 He's going to do exactly what he did a couple months ago, which is 318 00:27:53,519 --> 00:28:00,720 leverage TikTok users to call Congress and to tell them that half of America opposes 319 00:28:00,799 --> 00:28:04,640 intervening to help Taiwan. This is the threat of TikTok. It is meant 320 00:28:04,680 --> 00:28:11,680 to divide Americans and be the CCP's voice cloaked in American voices. That is 321 00:28:11,720 --> 00:28:15,519 one of the biggest threats that faces that faces our country today. And I 322 00:28:17,759 --> 00:28:22,119 Congress was right to do something about it. Yeah, and you know, 323 00:28:22,160 --> 00:28:25,759 we've we've hosted full debates, full, you know, podcast length debates on 324 00:28:25,880 --> 00:28:30,640 this. But I completely agree with the other Taiwan question that people will people 325 00:28:30,680 --> 00:28:36,920 will die. Probably American lives will be lost because of TikTok if this, 326 00:28:37,240 --> 00:28:40,880 if this happens just because of different confusion, if there's an invasion of Taiwan, 327 00:28:41,000 --> 00:28:45,200 just because of confusion of all those different things, Like if you're war 328 00:28:45,319 --> 00:28:48,400 gaming it, and Michael, maybe you've actually literally done this, maybe you've 329 00:28:48,400 --> 00:28:52,519 actually literally wore gamed this out. But like the reality of minute one of 330 00:28:52,640 --> 00:28:59,880 a Taiwan invasion in a world with CCP control over TikTok, it seems to 331 00:29:00,119 --> 00:29:06,400 me like the hard reality, the hard possibilities are terrifying. Absolutely, they're 332 00:29:06,759 --> 00:29:11,480 chilling they're absolutely chilling, and like, maybe it's helpful to be a little 333 00:29:11,599 --> 00:29:19,279 more direct and explicit about what we're talking about. We're talking about America's greatest 334 00:29:19,839 --> 00:29:26,480 geopolitical and ideological adversary. Maybe we can go a step further and say enemy 335 00:29:29,200 --> 00:29:33,960 having control over one of the most popular social media platforms in the United States. 336 00:29:33,160 --> 00:29:37,720 Like, I'm a parent, My son is only three years old, 337 00:29:37,319 --> 00:29:44,079 but if in the days when he will inevitably become a teenager and eventually gets 338 00:29:44,160 --> 00:29:51,680 on social media, I, as a parent today am really concerned about the 339 00:29:51,839 --> 00:29:56,880 prospect of having my child on an app that is controlled by an adversary of 340 00:29:56,960 --> 00:30:03,960 America. That really can earns me at a guttural level. And I think 341 00:30:03,319 --> 00:30:10,000 it also concerns me because I value our democracy. I value our republican form 342 00:30:10,039 --> 00:30:15,119 of government that is for Americans only, that is not for the Chinese Communist 343 00:30:15,160 --> 00:30:18,680 Party, like ByteDance has no First Amendment rights, the Chinese Communist Party doesn't 344 00:30:18,680 --> 00:30:22,480 have a First Amendment writer for the protection of the US Constitution that is for 345 00:30:22,640 --> 00:30:29,720 Americans. And I want to preserve the integrity of our system. And I 346 00:30:29,839 --> 00:30:36,599 think every every patriotic American wants that, and that is the threat that China 347 00:30:36,640 --> 00:30:38,720 poses, Like if you look at TikTok, if you look at Confucius institutes 348 00:30:40,640 --> 00:30:45,640 and a whole host of other forms of CCP infiltration. Their goal is to 349 00:30:45,839 --> 00:30:51,920 use American voices to advance their own interests in their own propaganda inside of our 350 00:30:52,000 --> 00:30:56,640 homeland. That to me, not only is that a really sophisticated form of 351 00:30:56,880 --> 00:31:03,200 competition, it's really scary and I think that we really need to take that 352 00:31:03,319 --> 00:31:08,880 seriously. And how you know, when we look at literal images of people 353 00:31:08,920 --> 00:31:11,119 from China crossing the border, some of them, by the way, I 354 00:31:11,119 --> 00:31:15,359 think, probably have much more legitimate asylum claims than a lot of the people 355 00:31:15,440 --> 00:31:19,920 coming from Central America, because if they're right that they're Christians or persecuted Chinese 356 00:31:19,960 --> 00:31:25,200 minorities, that fits into the asylum definition more neatly than a lot of economic 357 00:31:25,319 --> 00:31:30,960 migrants claims do. But Michael, it seems so obvious, whether it's you 358 00:31:30,000 --> 00:31:34,400 know, from people that could have connections to literal terrorist groups in the Middle 359 00:31:34,400 --> 00:31:38,519 East or to the CCP as many people from China do that when you have 360 00:31:38,599 --> 00:31:41,519 people pouring over the border, when you have an app like TikTok, there's 361 00:31:41,559 --> 00:31:45,960 something intentional happening. That is akin to what the United States and the Soviet 362 00:31:47,039 --> 00:31:49,799 Union did to each other during the Cold War. But it seems like in 363 00:31:49,880 --> 00:31:53,759 this case we're literally just like, hey, take the reins of NBC News 364 00:31:55,039 --> 00:31:59,640 in nineteen seventy, like whatever it is is in this case, we're so 365 00:32:00,000 --> 00:32:06,480 well completely our guard has been let down. Yeah, there is no excuse 366 00:32:07,759 --> 00:32:13,079 at all for how the Bidenen administration is handling the border. I mean, 367 00:32:13,200 --> 00:32:17,759 it is a dereliction of their duty to protect Americans. And if you look 368 00:32:17,799 --> 00:32:24,440 at how the CCP is leveraging it, there are videos on TikTok about how 369 00:32:24,519 --> 00:32:30,720 to get into this, how to get through the southern border illegally. And 370 00:32:30,839 --> 00:32:35,960 then you layer on top of this China's connection to the cartels in Mexico, 371 00:32:36,039 --> 00:32:39,559 and then you you know the fentanyl inflow, which is just such a deadly 372 00:32:39,720 --> 00:32:45,279 epidemic inside of the United States. And I do think that is also a 373 00:32:45,359 --> 00:32:51,000 strategic gambit on the Party's part, Like there's this multi front effort to weaken 374 00:32:51,079 --> 00:32:57,640 Americans, to weaken us inside of our own borders, And I just find 375 00:32:57,720 --> 00:33:01,839 it so mind boggling that we have political leaders that don't see that for what 376 00:33:02,000 --> 00:33:08,440 it is like the fact that the Biden administration is pursuing a working group with 377 00:33:09,160 --> 00:33:17,200 their senior level CCP counterparts about fentanyl. Forget it. Why in the world 378 00:33:17,240 --> 00:33:22,519 are we pursuing high level dialogues with the very regime that is responsible for this 379 00:33:22,799 --> 00:33:29,440 dangerous drug that has killed so many Americans. We shouldn't be cooperating with them 380 00:33:29,480 --> 00:33:34,440 on this. We should be penalizing and punishing Beijing for their complicity and the 381 00:33:34,680 --> 00:33:37,759 deaths of Americans. It is. It is so backwards to me in so 382 00:33:37,920 --> 00:33:44,279 many ways. One of the things I really loved about the chapter in your 383 00:33:44,279 --> 00:33:50,000 book that's the Foreign policy article is the focus on Kissinger, because there's something 384 00:33:50,160 --> 00:33:52,119 and Kissing you write about. You know how Kissing your studied the history of 385 00:33:52,200 --> 00:33:54,440 China and came to a different conclusion from the one that you came to. 386 00:33:54,559 --> 00:34:00,200 And Kissinger obviously had very deep ties financially to by the time that he passed 387 00:34:00,240 --> 00:34:05,319 away. And it seems to me like some of those realists, and you 388 00:34:05,400 --> 00:34:07,679 talk about how Nixon ended up looking back on all this, on all of 389 00:34:07,719 --> 00:34:15,400 those decisions from his administration, some of those realists were rightfully scarred and terrified 390 00:34:15,679 --> 00:34:20,320 by the Cuban missile crisis, by the day of Pigs, and by some 391 00:34:20,440 --> 00:34:24,239 of these extremely fragile moments. Those are just the more high profile ones, 392 00:34:24,280 --> 00:34:29,159 but the extremely extremely fragile moments in the history of the Cold War. And 393 00:34:30,000 --> 00:34:35,920 see that kind of mutual understanding, or the relationship of mutual understanding, which 394 00:34:35,960 --> 00:34:39,320 by the way, is often very beneficial for wealthy elites who get richer and 395 00:34:39,440 --> 00:34:44,360 rich are off these relationships. And there's some cronyism involved in it, but 396 00:34:45,239 --> 00:34:47,840 it seems to me maybe that's a charitable or maybe that's the best case scenario 397 00:34:49,000 --> 00:34:53,440 to explain why people like kissing your others. Others now that are more dumpish 398 00:34:53,519 --> 00:34:58,280 on this issue. They believe that if we can just foster these economic ties, 399 00:34:58,719 --> 00:35:02,679 if we can have you know, more back and forth with Hollywood and 400 00:35:02,760 --> 00:35:08,480 the Chinese box office, this soft power exchange, these economic exchanges, will 401 00:35:08,559 --> 00:35:12,840 only be a good thing. This will only basically I'm saying, Michael, 402 00:35:12,960 --> 00:35:16,639 or I'm asking, how do we prevent war? It's the typical Cold War 403 00:35:16,719 --> 00:35:22,760 dilemma, but now with China, how do we prevent war without provoking war? 404 00:35:22,440 --> 00:35:29,000 Oh my goodness, So I Emily, I love this question, not 405 00:35:29,119 --> 00:35:32,199 only because it's important, but because you touched on something that I think bears 406 00:35:32,280 --> 00:35:37,400 just a little bit of extra focus. Great power competition and foreign policy is 407 00:35:37,599 --> 00:35:45,639 often discussed in such abstract terms, and I think it's easy to carrene into 408 00:35:45,840 --> 00:35:53,480 cavalier excuse me, and too cavalier rhetoric about national security. But the way 409 00:35:53,559 --> 00:35:59,079 that you just described those, as you put it, those fragile moments during 410 00:35:59,159 --> 00:36:06,760 the Cold War, when we were so perilously close to armageddon, that needs 411 00:36:06,920 --> 00:36:14,039 to pierce the hearts of our policy makers in our generation today, like foreign 412 00:36:14,119 --> 00:36:17,199 policy is not a parlor game. It's real life with real lives on the 413 00:36:17,320 --> 00:36:22,639 line, and I think that can be so easily overlooked and forgotten in a 414 00:36:22,840 --> 00:36:29,880 hyper politicized environment. So I mean, when we talk about how do we 415 00:36:30,000 --> 00:36:35,840 prevail in a cold war without it becoming a hot war, that's more than 416 00:36:35,960 --> 00:36:39,320 just a question of how do you practice foreign policy shrewdly? Like that is 417 00:36:39,400 --> 00:36:45,639 how do you how does the US government live up to its constitutional duties to 418 00:36:45,760 --> 00:36:51,119 protect the American people? And I think reframed in those terms, it becomes 419 00:36:51,599 --> 00:36:57,000 a lot clearer and just the weight of responsibility kind of comes into focus more. 420 00:36:57,800 --> 00:37:01,760 So I get into this question and countering China's great game of how do 421 00:37:02,239 --> 00:37:09,360 how do we do this? And I think I turn more than anything else 422 00:37:09,440 --> 00:37:15,480 to some words that Matt Pottinger wrote in the forward of my book. Matt 423 00:37:15,679 --> 00:37:21,079 is the was the Deputy National Security Advisor for President Trump, and Matt was 424 00:37:21,760 --> 00:37:27,119 is today like the most the foremost expert on the Chinese Communist Party in the 425 00:37:27,280 --> 00:37:34,159 United States today. And Matt got into this point in my books forward that 426 00:37:34,320 --> 00:37:37,239 I just have not been able to get out of my head, which is 427 00:37:38,079 --> 00:37:45,039 when you are going up against a Marxist Leninist authoritarian regime, it is actually 428 00:37:45,280 --> 00:37:49,840 destabilizing to go out of your way to reassure them and to back down and 429 00:37:49,920 --> 00:37:55,360 to give them strategic space, because these types of regimes do not view international 430 00:37:55,480 --> 00:38:00,440 security the same way that we do. I think it is a very Western 431 00:38:00,599 --> 00:38:06,079 belief and desire that we can live in a positive some world and that rational 432 00:38:06,199 --> 00:38:10,800 minds can come to this grand bargain agreement. That is not the strategic culture 433 00:38:10,840 --> 00:38:14,960 of Marxist Leninism, and I do not think that is the mindset of the 434 00:38:15,039 --> 00:38:20,199 Chinese Communist Party today either. And if you look at the moments during the 435 00:38:20,280 --> 00:38:24,440 Cold War when we most successfully had diplomatic negotiations. I'm thinking in particular during 436 00:38:24,480 --> 00:38:30,440 the Reagan administration. It was when we approached those engagements with preponderance of power 437 00:38:30,880 --> 00:38:36,199 and with the upper hand strategically, and we were able to negotiate and conduct 438 00:38:36,280 --> 00:38:40,800 diplomacy on America's terms. So when we talk today, I think we're losing 439 00:38:40,880 --> 00:38:44,840 the Cold War with the CCP right now, and I think to gain the 440 00:38:44,920 --> 00:38:52,079 upper hand we need to play some very deft, measured brinksmanship with the party. 441 00:38:53,239 --> 00:38:55,559 I'm not saying it's going to be risk free, but I'm saying we 442 00:38:55,639 --> 00:39:00,599 can manage the risk and the process. We need to identify we're the party 443 00:39:00,639 --> 00:39:05,639 where the Chinese Communist Party is weak and where we are strong and force them 444 00:39:05,719 --> 00:39:09,679 to compete on that terrain. I'm thinking in particular the CCP's fear of free 445 00:39:09,760 --> 00:39:17,199 speech and information, the CCP's proclivity to commit awful human rights abuses, the 446 00:39:17,280 --> 00:39:24,119 proclivity of Chinese companies globally to engage in corrupt practices. We tend to be 447 00:39:24,280 --> 00:39:30,000 really strong in those areas, and the CCP cannot help but behave abhorrently in 448 00:39:30,159 --> 00:39:36,920 those areas. If we start to shift our competition with the Chinese Communist Party 449 00:39:37,119 --> 00:39:43,000 in that direction. I think over time, we're going to find ourselves gaining 450 00:39:43,760 --> 00:39:46,360 control of the tempo and pace of the competition, and we're going to find 451 00:39:46,400 --> 00:39:52,239 them instead of us trying to react to the problems Beijing has created for us, 452 00:39:52,920 --> 00:39:55,559 they are going to be on their back feet reacting to problems we have 453 00:39:55,760 --> 00:40:00,920 created for them, And I think that's where we need to go. Michael, 454 00:40:01,000 --> 00:40:07,159 is there anything else you think Americans or maybe even particularly conservatives don't understand 455 00:40:08,000 --> 00:40:12,440 about the China issue that we haven't mentioned yet, or maybe we've mentioned it 456 00:40:12,480 --> 00:40:15,320 and you just want to underscore it. Is there anything else do you think 457 00:40:15,360 --> 00:40:21,079 people are just missing or need to think more about. Yeah, So with 458 00:40:21,239 --> 00:40:24,800 that invitation, why don't I open a can of worms and talk about like 459 00:40:25,079 --> 00:40:30,440 one of the biggest debates on the right with foreign policy right now, So 460 00:40:31,039 --> 00:40:37,440 one of the biggest debates on China in particular, is this considering the trade 461 00:40:37,480 --> 00:40:43,000 off between like can we help Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan at the same time 462 00:40:43,199 --> 00:40:49,039 or do we need to prioritize and focus more on the China threat by redirecting 463 00:40:49,119 --> 00:40:54,280 some of those resources to Taiwan. I find this to be such a fascinating 464 00:40:54,400 --> 00:41:00,119 debate and honestly a really important one. I also find it to be a 465 00:41:00,239 --> 00:41:05,800 very difficult one because I see things on both sides that I agree with and 466 00:41:05,880 --> 00:41:10,599 I think are factually true. The Conservatives who are arguing for maybe like a 467 00:41:10,719 --> 00:41:16,639 quote unquote Asia first approach to grand strategy today, the biggest point they make 468 00:41:16,719 --> 00:41:22,960 that I think is correct is that the United States is not the hyper power 469 00:41:22,079 --> 00:41:27,920 today that it was in nineteen ninety one when the Berlin Wall fell. We 470 00:41:28,000 --> 00:41:30,079 are not the hyper power today that we were in the wake of World War 471 00:41:30,159 --> 00:41:35,639 Two. I think that is correct, and especially if you look at the 472 00:41:35,679 --> 00:41:40,519 balance of power between the People's Liberation Army in the US Navy and Air Force 473 00:41:40,800 --> 00:41:45,760 in the First Island chain like in East Asia, is that balance of power 474 00:41:45,840 --> 00:41:52,800 is not tilting in our favor. So the capabilities argument behind the Asia first 475 00:41:52,880 --> 00:41:59,639 perspective of we don't have the resources to fully help Ukraine and Israel and Taiwan 476 00:42:00,039 --> 00:42:05,480 need to prioritize at least at a historical level. That makes sense to me, 477 00:42:05,559 --> 00:42:07,440 and I get it. On the other side of the argument, I 478 00:42:07,480 --> 00:42:13,119 think the most compelling case that I also agree with is it's also true that 479 00:42:13,159 --> 00:42:16,920 if we do walk away from Ukraine, and as maybe some on the left 480 00:42:17,119 --> 00:42:22,880 would want us to do, redirect aid away from Israel, that is going 481 00:42:22,960 --> 00:42:29,679 to have a strategic impact on the stability of Taiwan. The government of Taiwan 482 00:42:29,719 --> 00:42:34,840 has been screaming about the connection between Taipei and Kiev for a very long time. 483 00:42:35,519 --> 00:42:37,719 I think it's foolish for us to ignore that. And I think it's 484 00:42:37,800 --> 00:42:44,079 also notable that Vladimir Putin and Shijingping are passing a lot of notes to each 485 00:42:44,119 --> 00:42:46,880 other these days and having a lot of high level summits today, like there's 486 00:42:46,960 --> 00:42:53,800 clearly coordination and they're clearly watching how America is interacting with both powers. So 487 00:42:54,519 --> 00:42:59,400 I think on both sides of this debate, you have two realities that are 488 00:42:59,559 --> 00:43:04,760 equally real. We aren't as strong and overwhelmingly powerful as we used to be 489 00:43:04,880 --> 00:43:08,559 on the one hand, But then on the other hand, walking away from 490 00:43:08,920 --> 00:43:15,599 partners in one region does have a deterrence and credibility impact on partners in another 491 00:43:15,719 --> 00:43:20,079 region. So what do you do in a catch twenty two like that? 492 00:43:21,119 --> 00:43:25,360 And it really comes down to the type of problems you want to deal with. 493 00:43:27,039 --> 00:43:35,000 Do you want to deal with the risk of having putin roll into Ukraine 494 00:43:35,079 --> 00:43:39,400 and then maybe go further and test the NATO alliance, which could happen, 495 00:43:39,559 --> 00:43:44,639 but maybe we'd be in a better position with Taiwan. Or do you try 496 00:43:45,960 --> 00:43:52,679 to maintain deterrence everywhere and hope that we don't get over extended. I think 497 00:43:52,840 --> 00:43:57,960 that the best, most honest, And again, if anyone who follows me 498 00:43:58,039 --> 00:44:00,920 on Twitter, like, it's really clear that I I tend to follow in 499 00:44:00,000 --> 00:44:04,400 though we don't have a choice, we have to like help Ukraine and Israel 500 00:44:04,440 --> 00:44:07,159 Antaiwan, like that is where I fall. But I also want to acknowledge 501 00:44:07,199 --> 00:44:10,119 that this is not like a slam dunk debate, and there are people on 502 00:44:10,280 --> 00:44:14,519 really good faith on all sides of this. The reason I think we can 503 00:44:14,639 --> 00:44:21,119 do all three and still be okay is because of the importance of asymmetric competition, 504 00:44:21,320 --> 00:44:23,800 which we are not doing enough right now. If we begin to exploit 505 00:44:24,119 --> 00:44:30,440 the CCP's asymmetric vulnerabilities, which is all chapter five and chapter six in my 506 00:44:30,599 --> 00:44:36,000 book, I think we begin to whittle away at their strategic focus and their 507 00:44:36,159 --> 00:44:42,400 margin of power. And I think that like these regimes are brittle, Phuton 508 00:44:42,480 --> 00:44:45,000 is brittle, She is brittle, They're governments and their like their regimes, 509 00:44:45,079 --> 00:44:50,719 these are not stable, legitimate forms of government. I think we need to 510 00:44:50,760 --> 00:44:54,519 start exploiting that, and we have a better system of government in our favor. 511 00:44:55,199 --> 00:44:59,840 So what I'm not saying, Emily, is that this is going to 512 00:44:59,880 --> 00:45:02,559 be easy and that this is going to be like a cake walk to peace. 513 00:45:05,599 --> 00:45:07,679 Far from it. But I do think there is a path that we 514 00:45:07,920 --> 00:45:14,599 can pursue to be the leader in all the regions of the world we need 515 00:45:14,719 --> 00:45:21,599 to be while also avoiding war. I certainly hope that's the case. All 516 00:45:21,679 --> 00:45:27,199 right, everon cross your fingers that we don't get annihilated in a nuclear CONFLX. 517 00:45:30,599 --> 00:45:34,159 Oh goodness, well, Michael sabel Like this has just been fascinating. 518 00:45:34,280 --> 00:45:38,199 Congratulations on the book. Thank you so much for sharing your perspective and sharing 519 00:45:38,280 --> 00:45:42,679 some of your work here today. I really appreciate it. Hey, this 520 00:45:42,760 --> 00:45:45,679 has been a pleasure, Emily, thank you so much. Of course. 521 00:45:45,760 --> 00:45:49,880 Now again, the book is called Countering China's Great Game. You can go 522 00:45:49,960 --> 00:45:53,639 ahead and get that now, Michael, much appreciated. I'm am a leadership 523 00:45:53,679 --> 00:45:57,559 ski culture editor at The Federalist. We'll be back soon with more. Until 524 00:45:57,559 --> 00:46:04,400 then, the lovers of freedom and anxious for the friend. Don't you got 525 00:46:04,519 --> 00:46:10,199 me right, but you won't scratra