What he's up, fellow thermonuclear A Eppers. I am Dampa Valley coming at
you with a break from our off season Grades podcast series. We have the
final two divisions out later this week. Grant and I needed a break.
I needed more time to put my transaction list together, so I figured we'd
take a beat on this Monday if you're watching it, and then we'll finish
those up. We'll have them out for Tuesday and Wednesday, I believe of
this week. Check out our division by division offseason report card grades. We
have Southeast, Southwest, Northwest, and Central division outs. We have the
Atlantic and the Pacific ones that will be coming out shortly. As always,
we're here to talk, well not as always. We're gonna talk about Lebron
James and the way that his extension was framed and what it means if the
Lakers want to get another star sort of one question podcast very quickly though.
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or it's a family member or just a random person that you see on the
street. Need to air drop our podcast feed too. With that out of
the way, we can safely I think cannonball into this Lebron James extension.
We didn't hit it again. We were going through the I did a reaction
video on YouTube for shorts, but we didn't hit it initially because we were
doing the We really want to do the off season grades, even though those
could become dated pretty quickly given out the trade market is structured right now.
But so Lebron James signed a two year ninety seven point one million dollars extension
with the Lakers, the second years of player option, so he's essentially under
contract guaranteed for the next two seasons, has a player option in twenty four
twenty five, which not coincidentally, that's when Bronnie could enter enter the league,
and he said he wanted to play with his son. There are two
things takeaways here that I found interesting. One was pointed out by Nate Duncan
that the date that Lebron James signed it makes it so he's untradeable this season,
which is important if the Lakers wanted to blow it up. There.
There's been the school of thought that, oh, just trade Lebron, who
cares what he wants the yadi yadiyada. So the timing was interesting. Maybe
you're just surprised he didn't wait longer to leverage a Russell Westbrook trade. I
do think though, and sort of. The other interesting takeaway here is that
this doesn't force the Lakers to trade Russell Westbrook, but maybe it incentivizes them
to at least be more open at trading the twenty twenty seven pick, because
you know, you get two more years of Lebron at least rather than one
potentially. And I guess the third thing here is, like Lebron is said
he wants to play with Bronnie before he retires. If Lebron is still one
of the five best players alive in twenty four twenty five as of me,
has to go where Bronnie was drafted the first season. I'm sure team might
consider taking Brownie just so that they could have access to Lebron if he is
playing that well. But like the timeline here isn't his contract is set up
this way, but Anthony Davis has a player option that year. The Lakers
have basically blank books if they want to depending on other contracts they might sign.
So I think this was just sort of a win for the Lakers to
know that you have the Lebron and adcore for another two years and you can
at least project forward to that rather than just the one season. With all
of that said, this was framed by Woj as the Lakers will now have
room to add another MAX player in twenty twenty four free agency, and so
the big question is can the Lakers add a third star to this Lebron and
adcorps. The answer is sort of, but not through the methods that you
think, And so looking at free agency, there might be players that are
available, and it's certainly better to sign a star free agent if they're they're
hitting free agency, rather than trading for them, because that's costing you,
in the Lakers case, a twenty seven and twenty nine first round pick at
at minimum in addition to other stuff, and they don't really have much other
stuff. Signing them outright it doesn't cost you those assets unless you need to
dump money. So the Lakers, as of right now, I think the
best way to look at this is leading into the summer of two thousand and
twenty three, excuse me, That's what I was talking about the summer of
two and twenty three. Just pencil and Lebron and a D salaries. Everything
else is fungible on this team. Austin Reeves's cap hold so low they could
get rid of Max Christie if they want talent, Horton Tucker and Damian Jones.
Having a player option is kind of a big deal. You can jenison
those contracts and maybe Taylent Horton Tucker, represented by Clutch, I believe is
willing to opt out and do the Lakers of solid since frankly they did him
a stile by giving him such a two plus one deal. If you just
tear this roster down to the studs where it's Lebron and a D, and
then you just pencil in all the minimum cap holds, you're not even They're
getting rid of their first round pick. New Orleans has swapped rights on it.
The most cap space they can get is thirty four point seven million dollars.
That may change if the salary cap increases by more than expected, but
Lebron's salary will increase in that that scenario, so they will have thirty four
point seven million dollars in cap space at most, if they tore the roster
down to this dudes where it's Lebron, a d and then a bunch of
empty slots, that is enough to foot the bill of a twenty five percent
max contract. A player who's been in the league up to six years fewer
than seven years, however you want to frame it. Those max contracts,
they never switch teams. It is very rare that a player who's been in
the league, like we're talking, most of them aren't even free agents at
that point because they signed these extensions previously, never even getting to restrictive fregency,
so they could put in a twenty five percent max bid. But the
sweet spot is having the ability to offer a thirty percent or thirty five percent
max. The Lakers, it's about forty million dollars for a thirty percent max
in twenty the summer of twenty three is about forty six point six for the
thirty five percent max, and there's no wiggle room on these salaries, like
what ad and Lebron make is what they're gonna make, so they do not
actually have room for a max player in free agency of twenty and twenty three.
I also saw it framed as they will be able to add a third
max player in two and twenty four. Well, duh, because Lebron and
a D both have player options. If let's just assume they both exercise those
player options and you're again willing to tear the roster down to the studs,
you can get up to thirty six point four million dollars in cap space because
you're gonna have ninety point six million dollars committed to Lebron and a D.
Plus I'm penciling in some roster charges at about one point two million per not
to convolute to discussion with the numbers, but basically, in the summer of
twenty twenty four, if Lebron and a D both do you a solid and
they might not, they might decide to opt out and try to get more
money. But if they were willing to opt in, you're looking at thirty
six point four million in cap space at most roughly that is again enough to
get a twenty five percent max. It doesn't get you a thirty percent max
or thirty five percent max, and so you would need them the reason you
would be able to add a third all like max player, so to speak,
is because Lebron and a d took pay cuts in twenty twenty four and
twenty five, or at least one of them did, and I would guess
people would expect it to be Lebron. I don't know if either of them
are willing to do that. I certainly the way Lebron is operated since his
days in Miami, it hasn't suggested that he wants to operate that way.
Maybe if the Lakers do sort of make a trade and impact trade that extends
his title window, he'd be more willing to take a pay cut. But
that also adds long term money, which is the other there's the fragility here
in that is the Lakers can't add any long term money to their book just
because they don't have the equity to get off these contracts like they're probably trading.
If they're making any big trade, maybe they could trade Russ for someone
with longer salary and not give up picks. But if you want them to
be able to sign a third star and have a reasonable chance at it,
it's not going to be in the summer of two and twenty three at this
point unless that star is taking a pay cut. And I think it's unrealistic
and also unfair to expect these players, these max players, if they're no
brainer maxes, to take that pay cut. And just like with Lebron,
like if the market for him is a max contract, he might just decide
that, you know, I'm I'm not going to take a discount. Someone's
gonna pay me a max. The Lakers would pay him max when he opts
out, probably if he's still playing up to snuff. And there's also just
the matter of, Okay, we'll look at the free agency class next year,
and you wouldn't even look at next year, you look at the summer
of like, because if you're looking at two and twenty three, are you
bowling over yourself to like try and get Chris Middleton really good or Andrew Wiggins
certainly not D'Angelo Russell, Like those are players where they're actually you might be
able to get a third star. Like if Chris Middleton opts out and you
do have thirty million dollars to offer, is that enough to get him?
Is he a submax player at that point, even though he's eligible to sign
a deal that starts at forty six point six million. Is he viewed that
way around the league. I would imagine his number be higher than Lakers could
offer. So I do not think the Lakers are going to be able to
add a third star to Lebron an ad through free agency. With that said,
their best path to getting a third star is still making him the Kyrie
Irving trade. Like that's really the answer to all this is you trade the
twenty seven and twenty nine picks and Russ's salary, and there's you could put
in another money to make it work, and you acquire Kyrie Irving, who
is your third max player, and then you re signed him. When he
hits free agency next summer, you still have And like that, I think
some people might be turned off by the idea because it's costing you two first
round picks and Kyrie's been mercurial, is probably the kindest way to put it.
And what's the rest of his prime? Look like he's d during his
age thirty season, He's not. He's not like ancient. And so if
the Nets are willing to do that deal, and you pull it off because
now you know that since Lebron and you are both going to be there,
maybe Kyrie is less of a risk to leave in free agency then you're golden.
Like there's your third star right there. You try and flesh out the
roster around them with your you know, mid level exception and then hope you
hit on some of your minimums in that scenario. Like you definitely would stillft
Hewn Horton Tucker's contract to trade if you get Kyrie for one pick, of
course, like if the Nets are willing to do that at this point,
I would be shocked if they were. But yeah, you go that route.
The Lakers being able to get a third Max player, a third All
Star player, their only chance to me, realistically is making a trade,
and I don't know who else would be. You know, Lakers fans have
been pretty adamant that Miles turn doesn't qualifies that third star, and that's fine
if you don't want to frame it that way. I don't know, Russ
plus two picks if that's getting you anything else, and you're also not going
to be make I think you could argue a trade beyond this season because you
have none of this long term money on the books to match with. Yeah,
if you're using cap space as you're prerogative and you're just like absorbing a
Max guy who comes on to the trade market. So you could offer,
in theory next summer talent Horton Tucker expiring, and two first round picks and
then just take take a star back into your cap space. You could do
that. What star is becoming available where that's going to be possible. So
now almost feels like the time because as much of a I don't want to
call it a detriment, as much as an albatross is the forty seven point
one million dollars Russ Is making this year has turned out to be. It's
a salary anchor for a star trade that the Lakers are not going to have
after this season to make something midstream until at least the twenty twenty four deadline.
At that point, because if you go through use your cap space,
you need to wait for those players to become trade eligible. And so the
only way to acquire a star would be while are they making under thirty four
million dollars, let's say, and just taking them into that cap space while
giving up two first round picks again just feels unrealistic. We don't see those
stars never just traded for two first round picks and nothing else. Sure,
you could do a sign and trade but now we're again getting into the realm
of the numbers are squeezing the max money just doesn't compute. Still, it
remains very hard to add a third star when both of you, when you're
two, if you already have two incumbent stars, it's a lot harder to
do so outside of a trade, just because of the way, even with
the cap going up these three max deals, if you already have you know,
two guys who are on a thirty percent max, then a thirty five
percent max, it just gets incredibly difficult to work that way. Like the
math just doesn't add up. That is like, I'm not even gonna do
that math. But it's just it's too hard to sign one out right.
And so the framing that the Lakers will have enough cap space to add a
third All Star in twenty twenty three is inaccurate, and in twenty twenty four
it's just a matter of Okay, Well, that's because Anthony Davis and Lebron
have player options, and right now Lebron and Anthony Davis are even the only
players on the Lakers roster that have options for twenty twenty four, two twenty
five. You know, maybe technically the deal that Max Christie signed. He's
a two year deal, so he could be a restricted free agent in two
thousand and twenty four. But the only there's no guaranteed money on the Lakers
books in twenty twenty four right now, and the only like actual options they
have on the roster is Lebron n ad And so if you're thinking they're going
to add a free agent, I would look to that summer and you would
have to bank on, Okay, well, someone's gonna take a pay cut
to come here, or Lebron and a d are going to take a pay
cut. Is that going to be to get who Klay Thompson, Pascal Siakam
is right now is slated for free agency? Then is it Paul George or
Kawhi Leonard? Like why would they leave each other? Drew Holiday could be
available. I believe that year to see him McCollum even qualify. At this
point, a lot of people think he's gonna extend. Jalen Brown is slated
from restricted free agency. That would be mega interesting then, as is Draymond
Green. He's a player option for next year though, And to that point,
that's the level of star you be looking at. If you think you
can sign one with Lebron and a d is if Draymond is not going to
take his max salary and he's taking thirty four million dollars a year or whatever,
and it's technically a submax deal for him, but you get what you
consider a star. Is Draymond going to be worth that when he's at that
point going to be heading into his age thirty three season. I believe debate.
I would. I would probably argue no, he might be worth it,
specifically the Warriors, but for a Lakers team where they wouldn't have a
ton of depth or youth on it. So it has to I won't say
it has to, but it's going to probably need to happen where you're I'm
not saying overpaying, but you're going to have to sign someone in twenty and
twenty three who's a star but taking submax money and substantially below probably their submax
or you're I don't even say it's gonna be Draymond Green. There was a
report from I think it was heavy dot Com the other day said that John
Green is expected to opt out of his contract next summer, and so like
uh that came from Heavy aggregated Brian Windhorst on the Hoop Collective. So,
but that's the point is the Lakers want to start in free agency. You're
probably looking at either someone's taking a pay cut to come to the Lakers,
which again not just we don't see these drastic pay cuts, like to say,
like someone's gonna take ten million dollars less to come to the Lakers.
We just don't. You can't bank on that. I would say, it's
not impossible, but you can't bank on it. Or you're expecting Lebron in
a d to take pay cuts in their next deal, or at least one
of them. I would say that's probably more possible than expecting a newcomer to
take a pay cut. Or you're doing it via trade, and your best
chance to do it right now, just given the circumstances is the rusts and
picks for Kyrie and however else you want to structure that. And so that's
where I'm at. I don't think it was a mistake to give Lebron the
extension. I think it was smart for both parties. Lebron keeps his flexibility,
the Lakers can at least build out two years into the future rather than
just one, and if all doesn't go according to plan for the Lakers,
there are worse spots to be than having a ship ton of cap space moving
forward and being the Lakers. And also like Anthony Davis is still there,
Like this isn't someone who you know career just over he's painted his injury prone,
which I guet he always seems to be dealing with something, but he's
going into his age twenty nine season, then he'll he'll play out his age
thirty season, and then he's a free agent heading into his age thirty one
season. So just like there were worst spots to be in. Yeah,
you'd want to have some draft picks to like restock the well at that point,
but there are things the Lakers could do here. I would say that
now is their best chance to get that third star because of what's happening with
Kyrie. Just maybe that doesn't work out. Maybe I'm misreading the market or
the willingness of Lebron ray D to rework their next deals. But I would
also argue it's the best chance because people think Lebron is a flight risk.
As soon as Browny enters the league, I would be I don't want to
say, floored, but it just wouldn't. I'd be fairly to moderately to
very surprised if Lebron James decides that he's going to play with Bronnie in year
one, because it almost like suggests is he going I guess it depends on
the team, but is he going there for the longer haul? If he
can still play? Like just you know, selfishly, I want to see
it'll be his age thirty nine season that he's entering when he can be a
free agent. I want to see Lebron continue playing into his forties if he's
playing anywhere near this level. I'm not ready for this ride to end,
just as a pure basketball fan, and so if he goes anywhere else,
I just want to see keep playing. But that's where I'm at with the
Lakers. I don't think this Lebron James extension changes anything about how their their
ability to add another star. There was always this Kyrie scenario sitting on the
table if it worked out in their favor, or you're looking at sort of
a submax level player that they could go after, and look, this is
the final I'll wrap this up here. It doesn't have to be a third
star. Or bust here like they're if they're slated to have cap space with
Lebron and Ad, like you could if you really just tore down to the
studs and had your your cap space and your room exception like and then kept
your twenty three twenty twenty three draft pick, maybe the Pelican swap depending on
how you finished the season, like, you can just build out depth around
these two, which is still a like quality way to cobble together a contender
in the Western Conference. And so I would argue that this extension to me
makes the lakers immediate future bit brighter. Maybe not so much next season,
but perhaps next season, because if you believe this makes it more likely that
they'll trade pick since they have Lebron for two years. But I just think,
knowing that you have Lebron in AD plus cap space in twenty twenty three,
I wouldn't expect you to get a third star. That would not be
my prediction. Unless this is Kyrie Irving right now, or Draymond Green really
wants to play in LA and the Warriors disrespect him and extension talks and only
want to pay him like twenty five million. Unless it's a situation like that,
you could just instead assemble a bunch of depth. I hope you enjoyed
this one question. We'll be back to the offseason Gray Grind very soon.
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only the legendary will be available for Max contract, maybe if the Lakers have
enough room. Frank Neil A, Keena