For your seven billion dollars. You already called me twice that there are risks
of ninety percent. They are SMEs that generate 80%. Give me twenty
minutes of your time and I, in return, give you information on the
most relevant issues in foreign trade, tax and customs with a human touch and
let' s traik a podcast of TVs in Magas and Mexico Hello how good
afternoons are welcome. Let' s barter as it is at a telese event
Magas and Mexico. Well, then, I' m very pleased. See
you here, Alejandra, that you are making a rouquee with us, especially
with a subject that, in truth, I mean, I heard it and
I read it And the truth is that with so many changes that are happening
both in Mexico and internationally. I believe that the geopolitics and foreign trade that
you are going to accompany us to this day is very important. So good
also to welcome Dr Maximo Carvajal Doctor how you are welcome to barter to the
view Antonio Carballida as well and to all those who connected both on social networks
as today. I' m very happy to welcome you for a hello track.
Thank you very much. Thank you, Daniela, thank you, Doctor,
and good afternoon to all of you, and six months I was not
with you. It' s really been a little bit of a complex year.
Last year was complicated, but this one started leaving anyway. But it
' s always a privilege. He wants to be with you, sharing information
and also listening to experiences from others. Thank you so much, Alexy.
Good to give you the floor. I would like to read your face and,
above all, thank you because your experience, the truth, brings us
a lot and we are very happy that you connect with us to make an
an here. Alejandro Mayor is a graduate of the technical market of the Instituto
Tecnológico de Chihuahua, specializing in business English from the TEC of Monterrey and Financial
Law Studies from the Autonomous University of Chihuahua and High Management from the Es Banking
and Commercial School. Director of DK Compañas para la Región de Américas at Flex
Manufacture, responsible for managing business compliance program for Canada, Mexico Costa Rica,
Brazil and with special focus on where in the United States, including export control.
TRAK Oflscience' s ISA program has more than twenty years of experience in
international regulatory compliance, enforcement, customs and logistics. He has worked in manufacturing
companies such as Emerson Electric, Vision Automotive and Fort Motors, foreign trade services
and consultancy companies such as Jippy Morganches Pastera who now s Livingstone and logistics companies
Rider Systems and bax Global Shenker, mainly in Mexico, the United States and
Latin America. He has collaborated with some associations of maquiladoras and exporters as part
of the customs committees of Chihuahua, Nuevo León, Reinosa and Ciudad parez and
is currently a member of the Trader Compliance Committee of work cooplass Station Capítulo México
and is also a member of the Exports and Operation Committee as part of the
internal competition indes Pressosstation in the California Valley of u of Silicon Valley. Well,
Alejandro, thank you so much for joining us today and I' ll
leave you well and I' ll give you the Community to do a trick.
Thank you. Thank you, everyone, for I am going to you.
I prepared for you today an issue that, as it has lately been
very much in our minds for everything we have lived through perhaps since two thousand
and eighteen, may be when the trade war between the United States and China
began. And for some who were there, they have been more surprising,
because the whole issue of Pakistan and all the crises we have been dealing with.
But lately, more so with the issue of Ukraine' s war with
Russia and it term, which, in particular, I find very interesting and
very relevant, which is geopolitics. Let me share with you here the material
we prepare. Well, well, look at geopolitics, it' s not
the opposite. Whatever we might think. It' s not a new term.
Geopolitics is even a discipline and a school of a kind of doctrine that,
for some scholars of the subject, has its origins from one thousand eight
hundred to the end of one thousand eight hundred of the nineteenth century, when
this theme of the industrial revolution began to be given and mass or serial production
began to expand. For others it has to do with the doctrines of trusted
political scientists early in the 20th century, although since more detail and more popularized,
it was formalized following the great depression of one thousand nine hundred and thirty
and, obviously, it had its boiling or its highest point during the Second
World War. There are records that geopolitics as such, as it was used
both by the Nazis, the Nazi Party, and by the allied countries,
both to give perception and this sort of good against bad. I am right,
and the others are not And obviously, so, everything that flourished after
World War II, all that whole period of the famous Cold War that the
seventies where he left were made two branches of geopolitics than the school to the
critical geopolitics, this by an English who is called Cost Island and the French
School of Peter Taylor East, who basically established the following. No, no,
no, no, no, no, no, no, no,
no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no,
no, no, no, no, no, no, no,
no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no,
no, no, no, no, no, no, no,
no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no,
no, no, no, no, no, no, no,
no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no,
no, no, no, no, no, no, no,
no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no,
no, no, no, no, no, no, no,
no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no.
It dealt as data, as historical studies to know a country, a
region, to establish what its political situation is, what its temes are,
its demographic situations and for and to understand a little the international environment or how
countries and regions relate to each other. It' s about having historical data
on how populations are managed. The issue of geopolitics related to international conflicts,
not to wars, to crises, comes to our mind a great deal,
but it has also been achieved in peace rooms on political issues, because in
the midst of all this the General Council of the United Nations was born.
Then it is fortunate to agree on all and to manage the power to lead
the population or humanity to a good destiny. Logically, obviously, we are
going to see in this talk that there are different positions and they obey several
specific points. So, then, it has its core point in regional and
situational analysis for what geopolitics is important in international trade, because, as we
well mentioned, it is to understand them even among historical antecedents of a region,
of a region where, where we go to buy goods, where we
go to do business, where we go to sell products, It helps us
identify risks, risks in the sense that whether we want to buy inputs or
sell products in countries that understand a little more the regime that reigns, not
or that governs that country or that region, the limitations, uses and customs,
the different customs regulations, commercial taxes that have and will make trade easier
or more difficult for us. On the other hand, it also helps us
to know more potentials, benefits or incentives that exist with another region, namely
foreign direct promotion programs, free trade agreements, if they are allied or friendly
countries, or a region where we are left to offer a service, sell
a product, establish a business relationship or of any kind that we have benefits
from being nationals of any country. Namely the North American region, the European
region, the European Community and, last but not least, it helps us
to establish business controls, whether for sale or for purchase, controls on the
entry and exit of goods, checks on the payment of taxes, checks on
regulations. Basically in geopolitics it goes hand in hand with international trade and that
' s where I found myself on a very good page that I recommend you
to call the world order. Along with this sheet that will help us greatly
to explain and develop this conference or this talk today, And it is,
therefore, the whole world map and the routes of maritime trade, mainly marine,
because, therefore, the most last trade is the one that plays the
world. We have different references here, such as different regions. If you
look at it, there' s the map of the world and it'
s kind of cool, but here it is in the region of America,
which is Mexico, Panama Canal, North America, South America and, to
understand a little bit, it' s segmented in what are the areas that
produce raw materials, what are the areas where manufactures are produced and what are
the target or consumer areas and what are the main trade routes. If we
can see anything in the world. There are seven very strategic commodity control points,
which is where it basically crosses all world trade. We' re starting
with the Asia region. If you look at the Asia region, we have
manufacturing areas, all that is China, all that is Taiwan. Here the
goods are produced and we have the first port of departure through the Strait of
Malacca that to Singapore, one of the main financial points of the world with
the rest of Asia down, as comes this route that connects with the stress
of Hormus, which is precisely the door to the Middle East. Here'
s Dubai, and here' s Sakala and we get to the Marvec Strait
and where the Suez Canal is. We all remember the Suez Canal, because
a year and a half ago, because we were the East boat that ran
aground and totally collapsed the trade in that region of the world. Here it
is because it is precisely the entry into the lower part of Europe and the
exit through the estuary of Gibraltar to the northern part of Africa, and which
carries many of the supplies or components of the consumer areas that are basically in
Europe, continue through another port, to New York, which is where the
other large consumer region is. And so simply following on this side, because
it goes through all points, collecting in the different ports the components and traveling
all over the Pacific Ocean towards America, which has basically three main points.
An alternate point in Alaska, Vancouver, San Francisco, Los Angeles, Macerillo
de Lázaro Cárden. This is where the goods arrive, either for consumption or
for manufacturing. These in turn, because they leave following the route of the
ships, because to the Canal Cama Panama, In the Panama Canal, because
here they leave by boat. If they are fixed, it is cyclical and
if they are fixed, it is distributed by region and economic power is distributed
in regions. To this day, for everyone has known that the Panama Canal
is administered by the United States, which is up to two thousand twenty-
one and we will see that this will change. This is where the consumers
of the planet or Europe and these regions, which are producer economies, are
concentrated, because they are the ones that their economic map has been changing,
has been improving, their income, their middle class has been rising and eventually,
because they will have a share of consumption cases like India, for example,
they also tend to be producing areas of raw materials and manufactures, potentially
in consumer areas. So, if we see, we go to power or
political regimes. We can see, then, that we have very special regimes
with the United States and apart, we have Asia, we have the Middle
East, and that makes those that obviously, the nations compete with each other,
for having, therefore, a greater participation and a greater control of the
areas where the goods are produced. This could be said to be the heart
of geopolitics. Here are many of the answers to the questions and the topics
that we are going to go. Well, then you don' t lose
sight of this foil. Over the last one hundred and fifty years, we
will realize that in the relationship of economic conflicts, armed conflicts, industrial development
and around regulation, many things have happened, for example, on the side
of this global and regional economic crisis, Without if we can see compensating with
the first, which was the recession of the post- World War I in
nineteen hundred and seventeen, every ten years we have had a regional or global
crisis that has contracted the gross domestic product or the economy in several digits very
serious cases, like what happened after the great depression seventeen percent of the GDP
or after the Second World War there was fifteen percent of the GDP and then
in the Cold War, then almost one percent. But during the 1970s and
1990s we were right in my view that a political crisis, at least a
regional economic crisis, at the rate of every five years. Not the tequila
crisis or the tequila effect, the effict zamba in Brazil, the tango effect
in Argentina, where the countries occasionally went bankrupt, not in impossibility of making
their payments and their commitments to the fund, like the international state, to
the East countries that have to pital to lend. And the last, because
it is the one that we are still living, which is the pandemic of
covid and the recession that we come from that, although on a global level,
according to this OLSD and according to the whole international, the contraction was
five point, three percent later we will see what it is, because it
is a programming of all the countries in Latin America. It is estimated that
there are places like Venezuela, where it was a contraction of more than twenty
percent of the economy, and not only that is five percent of the volumes
of the economy today, which are very different from the volumes of billions that
were handled 150 years or 50 years ago. Then we have never stopped experiencing
a crisis in any region. On the other hand, armed conflicts have also
been a matter of heart and every ten twenty years we have had one.
If we take the same reference beginning of the twentieth century in, because we
started with the Mexican revolution in America, while in Europe, because there was
the Russian civil war, while in Africa there were still issues of slavery and
in Asia, because we still had issues there of the Asian and Oceania war
and the Chinese civil war. Every ten years there has been a conflict,
every ten years there have been adjustments. Every ten years, there have been
issues of political crises that ultimately result in economic crises. An encouraging fact is
that, after all these crises, there has been a series of reforms.
Organizations have been established and established, as they have laid the foundations for what
they call the new world order. Much is said to be the case that
after the first great depression the International Monetary Fund was born, the dollar was
introduced as a single currency of exchange and the World Bank was created for what,
to regulate the economy, to regulate prices, to regulate certain international economic
measures, according to what was needed at that time and has been operating until
a few years ago after the Second World War, because the UMC was created
or before GAT was created the OCTE or the SD the World Customs Organization in
one thousand nine hundred fifty- two, and this was instrumented the gross domestic
product as an index to measure the economy of this one in the decade of
the seventies and the eighties, since the International Augmentary Fund is still to be
forgiven. The World Economic Forum and the UCTED were developed and established and then
more and more, at the beginning of the year two thousand, with the
problems and with the crisis that we had of the twin towers and all the
security crises in carnal supply, as they gave the entrance towards, towards,
towards, towards, the business antism Gremqualition, which is the world coalition of
trade to the East, to the authorized economic operator first in Europe and Singapore,
and to the coalition of Abani and anti- terrorism trade in the United
States, or the City Pat, which created a whole supply meat security industry.
On the other hand, since the mid- 18th century, this has
been evolving and growing. The industry became very colliding. We are in the
Fifth Industrial Revolution, where we started from the mid- 1800s with mechanization generating
hydraulic energy, energy, steam, serial production, mass production. In the
19th century, the use of power. Then, in the 21st century,
computer automation, manufacturing made its bullion. And today, because we come from
the first ten fifteen years of the 21st century, to hybrid systems, to
hybrid systems, to the digital world. And now we are in big data,
we are in intelligence, artificial machine learning, that we are, as
I say to you, entering the fifth industrial revolution. All these things happened
in the last one hundred and five thirty years. So, everything, in
the middle of all this, because there is the political management, the geopolitical
environment, is called ppolódico, because, because it is happening all, all
countries and then gives us, gives us the pattern to a new term or
acronym that was coined during the Second and after the Second World War, the
decade of the seventies, And this was already used in a generalized way in
the business world in the nineties, which is the buca or bica environment in
Spanish, that speaks of planning and to this to implement strategies in a volatile
environment where things are changing, which today serves as a strategy, perhaps not
tomorrow or in the following months. Not because it changes the whole environment.
And this is uncertainty, because you can' t predict things with that attitude,
because we don' t know exactly what' s going to happen.
The environment is complex, because there are many, many dependencies, many forces.
The issue of cause and effect is complicated and ambiguous. We do not
live in an ambiguous environment, in that we do not know what the real
whole is and what it is and what the mouth or the bica is completely
reliable, as it is today part of our reality. There is not even
a world movement dedicated to studying futurism and studying bookup. There are some universities
that study this phenomenon or this acronym, because as matter and basically it is
handled in that how to predict, how to have the best strategy with everything
and against what it is that we live. We were not prepared for a
pandemic, No one was prepared to live what we lived, What left us,
for example, the pandemic of covid because it was contraction of more than
two digits or two little children in this one in Latin America, a silence
through the economy. Seven point next percent. It seems to me how Venezuela
fell the economy thirty percent, Peru twelve percent, Argentina ten percent to Mexico,
as it was of those that this less bad was And we almost reached
the two digits. There are a number of major efforts being made by the
World Bank to rebuild the economy. It passed on four pillars. First,
nothing saves lives, not putting as much funding as possible into the health issue,
and then, then, I try to protect the poor and vulnerable and
lay the foundation for sustained growth. On the basis that, then, on
the basis of this, we protect the environment, protect health, protect life
and, therefore, see how we are rebuilding and how we are doing short,
medium and long- term goals. The World Bank is estimated to have
invested about$ 750 billion. Or the analysis they have to sort out what
the pandemic left us in broad terms, numbers plus numbers less, no,
and as we started, as we started the year two thousand twenty- three,
because it was the following way, I think it was based on what
we have seen and what we have analyzed in the previous prints. Perhaps this
year is when we start with more crises and more adversities in all regions of
the planet. Why, because the United States was facing the abyss, is
facing the enormous risk of falling into recession that demand for products will fall.
There is a crisis of consumer confidence. There' s no money. And
so, originally, as a region like the United States, they consume and
stop consuming, because for all the uncertainty and the risk of recession, obviously,
they make all the markets laugh. Europe, on the other hand,
is also suffering the same. Europe has no money, but it has a
huge amount of social problems because of an uncontrolled migration that is taking place,
especially from people coming from Africa and other countries. There is a rather complex
situation on social issues, on administration issues, on government issues in Latin America,
because obviously we have a sort of very controversial political leaders, very populists,
who are called either, loaded into the center ideology of the left,
because they seek only immediacy. They don' t have a political program,
a strategy. And, obviously, because in situations like these it becomes complicated,
there is an atmosphere of tremendous polarization throughout the region and that, therefore,
creates a lot of uncertainty on the part of investors in countries that have
the capital to invest. As the Latin American region manufactures and produces inputs or
consumer products, as demand declines and as there is a crisis of reliability,
because it does not have an environment with legal certainty, because it is beginning
to complicate in Asia, in this, in the eastern part of Europe,
because also the main problem, because it is the invasion of Russia to Ukraine
and the whole food crisis and the humanitarian crisis that resulted from this, the
mass migration of all the peoples that are around, the humanitarian crisis that comes
together, therefore, with the health crisis of the covid that the covid has
not ended up leaving or that if the global aviation of health of each comes
at the end of the pandemic, we know that there have been variations of
concern. Chile, on the other hand, because it is coming out of
bar situations number one, because it is all that it has stopped selling since
it is a country that produces inputs and raw materials and has been standing for
two or three years, because it has stopped products. That lockup they took
as a strategy, because it affected them too much. On the other hand,
because they are immersed in one in a trade war with the United States
and facing all these trade sanctions imposed by the President trumpo in two thousand eighteen,
because they have been diminishing their economy and have terrible debt problems. Its
population grew in purchasing power economy, came into debt, came acquiring a certain
lifestyle because there was a flow of sales. And then all of a sudden
all this stopped and now they have other kinds of problems. So, I
think it' s been a long time since the world started it. A
year like the one we started and like the one we are going through lately
i obviously, the positions of power, the political positions, the positions of
competition, for the territory, for the inputs, for the supply, for
the control of goods is radicalized and this becomes more complex. Everything does not
make the appearance, good or at least in our vocabulary, this day to
day, global international sanctions. We, I think, were listening to rare
international sanctions. For back in the seventies, in whom we already are of
a middle age. Yes, that' s the 80' s to that
time when there was a boycotta to the Olympics in Moscow, Well, yes
to that as we saw that there was talk about the energy crisis in the
1970s and then in the 1980s because the whole issue of terrorism and sanctions to
countries. There are no diplomatic sanctions that occur when two countries focus on conflict
and expel diplomats from it so that they do not visit, not and so
that they do not have this communication. There are no economic sanctions, which
are the ones we are dealing with, which we are engaged in foreign trade
customs. Logistics, because we have had more to see for the sanctions that
have imposed, because this, the following trump to Chinese products what you call
it with the rates of section three hundred one of the Office of Trade Representation
or the Secretariat of Economy of the United States East and that in some way
has benefited us for being a manufacturing country and that many of the projects and
processes have been running from China to America and more specifically to Mexico, because
to use platforms like the USMC. And we are all the ones who are
a little closer to that the military songs, because they are the interventions.
What happened with Russia and Ukraine sports sanctions Russia is a clear example. It
is and later we will see a case as soon as the invasion of Russia
Ukraine took place, the International Automobile Federation sanctioned Russia the Formula One Grand Prix.
It' s canceled. There was a runner and no more cepin running
in a squire' s office. FIFA also took it out of there,
because it also sanctioned the International Football Federation of Russia and the gymnastics Federation and
because they are practically isolated from all competition and environmental sanctions, because they are
the ones that there are economic measures due to bad environmental practices. We haven
' t seen much of them, but they' re probably the ones that
will come when we have more complex effects on climate change issues. There is
a regulation that passed the previous year, which is the CYBOOM or the coal
relationship, which speaks of the green tax that the European Community is imposing on
its imports. It is beginning with the steel industry, with concrete for very
specific coditis, but it is what comes with this agenda that Europe has of
making emissions, of reducing pollution, because it is going to start issuing sanctions
to those countries that do not have a clean energy policy that they call it
then. That' s what we' re going to meet to see.
And so, the sanctions how they work, because they have several four items
and four sections that are who is the end user of the goods or the
products, who they are, what use these goods will be given to those
products and is to manufacture goods that are going to be used in which industry,
armament, government, recreation, medicine, etc, and what are the
final destination. Whether we have a case like that of us in Mexico,
we bring components or goods from other regions, well we invoice products and forward
them to other countries through the maquila program. The international regulations that exist.
These are the four quadrants on which international sanctions are established, mainly who is
exposed or what they are applying to us, mainly we, because they are
those of the United States Government, through the Department of State, the Department
of Commerce and the Bureau of Industry and Security. They have different categories,
different theories of controls, depending on the type of goods and destination that it
is, whether they are usable or used in systems or applications of software technologies
for military purposes or those that are called dual use, also that they can
be used at best in producing a simple drill, but they can also be
used to produce a chemical cannon, which can be used for use of detergents,
but they are drug procursors and all this subject that are of military control,
but which also has a commercial use and export licenses for mainly controlled items
right now. We' ll see a little bit more detail with what'
s going on with the theme of semiconductors, the theme of memories, the
theme of chips. All of these have sanctions on countries, specifically China,
and have movement or export and import controls. Well, let' s go
to the first case, to the case to understand a little more why it
' s important to understand geopolitics in international business. I brought this case because
it' s very good. It is very current and has to do with
player Luis Chávez. Luis Charvez, remember that kick that the Mexican team put
in the Arabian section of the World Cup. How about one of the prettiest
goals, that goal he scored from outside the area. And that' s
where this player is from, because they came up with their credentials. He
really played, he has played in the gongkaf in two World Cups and national
selection and his dream was to play in Europe after the World Cup tasting as
there were several clubs interested by him for his card. The Pachuca club,
which is where he was playing for, is not interested in making a meaningful
transaction for them. And that' s where the most money was proposed for
this player was the dynamo from Moscow, Moscow, that is, from Russia.
What was the problem here, well well, we know the card of
this player or the value of the Charter of Player Rights. According to Transfermarket,
it is the page where you can see all the information of the players
of the world. The Charter is assessed at EUR 6 5 million. The
transaction and sale between Club Pachuca and Dynamo Moscow was a transaction of eight million
euros to live in. In which FIFA suspended Russia, as we have said,
all clubs in Russia and everyone, the entire federation from playing and from
having any worldwide interaction of competitions. UEFA, which is the European Football Federation,
also did the same. Moreover, at the financial level, SWIFT,
which is the system that facilitates global transactions between banks, because it blocked all
banks with after and then we had a problem, that we had a player
who was intended by a Russian club to get his services. He made a
rather interesting economic proposal to the Pachuca club for eight million euros. He fulfilled
all the expectations and dreams of a 27- year- old player who wanted
to go out into the world to play Europe. But it could not be
done. It could not be done because today the Russian League, because it
is a league that is isolated and disconnected from the world, cannot play in
official competitions, cannot play with other countries financially. We were faced with the
dilemma that how those eight million euros were paid to the Mexican club. And
this is what happened. How they did it, how the capital flows took
place, Well we have three players here, we have a country that sells,
the United States, and a country that buys, Russia. We have
an intermediary who is Venezuela. So what happened, because first of all,
the player himself, my Chávez, paid his own contract termination clause, paid
five million pesos to Pachuca to be considered free people and then he could negotiate
his letter and his rights with any club. Then negotiations were established to reach
the sale agreement to the player. And what had to be done was that
Pachuca had to establish a commercial relationship with a bank in Venezuela. He opened
an account, making a good account so that after we already assumed that Russia
had no issues in making a transfer with a bank in Venezuelas, they made
all the arrangements, all the ct that they call him and in this way
he transferred the eight million euros to the Pachuca club in his Venezuela account.
Then, after the transaction has been confirmed, the Pachuca club withdrew the funds
to its bank account in Mexico. This tertiaryization. And all this made it
possible for Luis Charvez, because he finally fulfilled his dreams, to go out
and play European football. And to this day, the Pachuca club, as
it has walked this process, is also offering from its other club, which
is the luxury Pachuca, which is the lion, is already selling another player
to another Russian club. It is the first time in the history of football
that a Mexican player goes out to Russia and, obviously at the most appropriate
moment through a war, now what potential risks and regulatory commitments there are for
the two involved in this, mainly for Club Pachuca, because in the sale
of this player is considered an export. Pachuca, as an organization, as
a sports group, already has a registered export of a sale to Russia in
its records. If for any reason, Club Pachuca becomes a subsidiary, a
subsidiary, an association in another country that has Russia sanctioned, you call the
United States, England, Spain, can at any time be questioned or even
punished for having done business with a country that is blocked, that is seized,
that is sanctioned? This can get the club into a complication. Financial
transaction, of the exchange of capital between a bank of Mexico and a bank
of Venezuela seemed to start day, because it had no issue, because there
is no, there is no sanction, there is no embargo. There are
open trade relations between Mexico and Venezuela, but again we tend to do the
same to other countries or to FIFA itself. This can be considered a relationship,
a risk transaction. Why. Because the European Community, the international community,
the international banking system of the West, does not regulate transactions and the
exchange of capital between a country and the Bank of Venezuela. Moreover, the
Bank of Venezuela is well aware that banks have some degree of control by the
Government of Venezuela and is thus an example. The United States today does not
have a total embargo on Venezuela. They have partial barriers and precisely one of
the points of concern or audit points is that transactions that are made between individuals
or entities of Venezuela, since they are not linked to the government. This
could be an important issue for the Pachuca club and, as I told you,
it could be questioned by the geó for several things. It is making
it easier for a league to be active in a league that is sanctioned,
a league that is not disaffiliated, but is sanctioned and punished. Obviously,
we think that the Lu Pachuca or the Pachuca Group, because they have their
lawyers have so much foreign trade and they have people who advised them very well
to make this transaction for Luis Chávez, Para bliz Chávez, because, first
of all, he will lose, at the best of those sporting moments,
the opportunity, because to have a forum, he will go to a league
sanctioned by FIFA, by UEFA and that he will go to a local league
where there will be no records of his performance, of his goals, of
his assists, of what he does. He may well not be summoned to
play with the Mexican Football Team, although there are no rules, there are
no laws, there is nothing to prohibit him. Well, certainly, again
speaking of geopolitics and talking about lately the interaction between the LMS and the Mexican
Football Federation, we have just gone through an interleague tournament and we are facing
the doors of a forthcoming Naftan World Cup, where it will be played in
Canada, the United States and Mexico, because the fact that a selected player
of yours is playing in Russia, since the truth can affect the player what
other things they can see. It' s a great idea that it doesn
' t suit the game system To get back, it' s complicated its
return because now, Russia would have to sell it to Mexico and all this
and it doesn' t adapt the life system. So, we really live
in an environment of certain freedoms, in a certain way of living, here
in the West and then he went against his family there. So this is
not good for geopolitics. For this purpose it is useful to study the environments,
to analyze the risks and to make decisions based on them. I believe
that this is an example that makes it easy for all of us to understand
and to what extent considerations can come to a commercial transaction. I mean,
it' s not about using the player here as a commodity. It'
s about selling a service and it really caught my attention. I followed the
case a lot and when I was loving this talk, I think it made
it easy for me to illustrate it. Now we' re talking a little
bit about payment financial systems and we haven' t heard much about Briggs versus
SWIFT. Good him. The Briggs comes from the year of nineteen hundred and
nine where the acceding countries or the countries not one hundred percent aligned to those
to the seven. A declaration was made to be created as in one with
an environment of a new, more equitable world order, to remove it in
a few words, for protectionism, or to take away supremacy. And that
and that all power and all economic and all capitals are concentrated in just seven
countries, that there is a more felt, fairer distribution, that there is
a more humanistic approach and that there is a more social approach. And so,
in a way, what we know is the eternal struggle between left and
right, between camp lifeism and socialism. Not what they represent, because Briggs,
although in the number of countries and the number of nations they exceed the
United States, the European Unity and the Group of the G seven, because
in reality they represent just twenty- five two hundred of the pipe of the
world economy and this forty- two percent of the population. This has changed.
Obviously, and as I was telling you, economies like India, for
example, have been growing enormously. South Africa has been growing tremendously. This
one in Brazil, because it has quite a lot of problems, but it
is a strong country in Latin America and can potentially raise the income of its
middle class, purchasing power to grow its economy. And this, then,
can start to balance things a little bit. It' s going to replace
SWIFT to Briggs to SWIFT probably not. What I studied from these two positions
is that it can economically benefit the world, because there may be several interbank
payment systems and not just one, like what just happened with the example we
saw of the football player, if we had two open payment systems and were
working in some normality and in one of the polarized environments we live in.
For Mexico, which is a mediating country, is that we have always gone
to a country that we do not charge ourselves to one side, to the
other side of the balance, that we are an open country. It would
be easier to have access to the two payment systems and to transact this trade
with the two regions countries such as Switzerland as well and other countries that have
not decided to take a physical stance. It can be a real posture,
it can be a benefit. But today, as Briggs is a reality,
more countries will be able to join, perhaps it will be able to increase
this participation in the pit Definitely, taking into account two things, the world
' s great consumers are in crisis. Europe has been tremendously affected by Russia
' s war with Ukraine Russia. Ukraine was therefore the number one supplier of
minerals, grains and some other foods in Europe. Russia is therefore the number
one supplier of natural gas throughout Europe. And, as I was saying,
European countries are facing severe humanitarian and social crises. I was just reading that,
for example, Sweden has terrible crime problems, ulterior social problems all over
migration and by all gangs and every time Sweden, as it has been one
of the most open countries to migration. Spain has problems, France, also
in England and the United States, because let' s not say the United
States with the security problems that the drug crisis has lately, with the canile
of some potential recession. This can definitely balance or move completely. The map
that we, who had seen at the beginning, has no other important theme,
which is the war of the semiconductors and between the boys. Why shouldn
' t we worry. Well, look at a report that Mackenzie made in
two thousand twenty- two. He made projections that by the year two thousand
thirty the market of microchips or semiconductors will be evaluated in a billion dollars,
that is, billions of dollars, which potentially means this beyond all the electronics
that we can think bring a memory. Today, everything has memory, it
has a semiconductor chip. The car shortage crisis came precisely because today the autros
are very electrified. Our phones have chips, our computers. Our whole life
as we become smarter and more digital, because it has a chip, a
semiconductor, a memory and an integrated circuit that facilitates, since all this.
And there is a very but very important issue and I think it is the
central part of all of this. The development of artificial intelligent, military systems,
state- of- the- art satellite systems, aircraft, all have
to do with chips and obviously, who wins the chip production market, microchips,
semiconductors will own the world. For China, chip manufacturing is extremely complex,
because while they have cheap labor, although they do have them, many
of the raw materials developments depend on others, mainly Japan and mainly Holland,
the United States, from company to the United States, from capital to produce,
as all that technology. And there' s another important issue, which
is silicon, not silicon. Those countries that have silicon and that have lithium
and that have other components, because they are going to have capital there invested
for something. The President of López Obrador made the decree that nationalize lithium and
other components, because this is going to be the basis of the new wars
we have. This is going to be the basis of geopolitics and, obviously,
as we saw very much at the beginning of our discussion on this,
this map is the heart of geopolitics. Until a few months ago, routes
began in Asia and there they moved to certain regions such as Oceania, such
as the Middle East, such as Europe, North Africa, Central America,
South America. But what everyone is looking for is, obviously, more and
more territory, more and more power to dominate the other. That' s
geopolitics. And that is, therefore, the world that we have had to
live, especially to those who are on these issues of customs, of international
trade, of foreign trade, of three complayans of logistics. It is fascinating
to understand this, to understand what is happening outside, because, because it
is already coming to us in the immediate environment in Mexico, which happened two
weeks ago, on the 16th of August. The government of Mexico, because
it took out three decrees there well, made a change to the lige to
adjust the import rates the ones cups that are to zero the sweats Tomentis five
percent. He modified the decree process this. So why, precisely, to
ensure that all the entry of goods from a country with which we do not
have a trade treaty, because a trade barrier is placed on it? Interestingly,
two days later, the user or the iust Representative Office or the Secretariat
of Economy in the United States made a publication congratulating or welcoming or expressing its
satisfaction with the measures that the Government is doing to control mainly this, the
entry of plastic steel and some other key components of this country that do not
have free trade agreements, which is, therefore, a deglobalization and a regionalization,
I mean practically what it would like to do is to break this line
or turn it into a dotted line like this, so that these hoops or
these points of control of goods, because they become two or three, not
so that there is only one with the North American bloc, another with the
Americas and another with Europe and another with Asia. It is very interesting what
is happening and so far my intervention of this day. I hope you'
re interested in this conversation or this conversation. I say I' m passionate
about all these issues out there are here my Linkedin and x networks. Now,
if you want to talk to me, I' ll exchange information,
because you' ll have your orders. Here was a comment, I tell
the excellent truth extra nadia talk and here was a song comment. Why the
map is like that. It' s not like I wasn' t in
the way No, it' s because it' s kind of seen from
above. It' s not like we saw it from above and identified how
the world had been designed as a circle or a perfect cycle, where everyone
had their roles in this game very well defined. Who they were, Who
they were who produced the components, who manufactured them, who distributed them and
who consumed them. That had been the world a few years ago. Right
now, because all this is changing. Hey Alexia here tell me to have
a ball between the future and your experience and especially how these transnational corporations are
contemplating it, how they' re going to double, what' s going
to happen to the dola, and that' s right, America is yielding
this power how we' re looking at it as business from international companies.
Well, there are opinions of all kinds, studies of all kinds analysis and
all kinds. There are since the most catastrophic ones that say what the end
of capitalism is, which is the end of the dollar, that just as
after the Second World War the supremacy of the dollar and capitalism was established,
because now the world has changed and the dollar can potentially end and other means
of change are put in place. There was much talk of cryptocurrencies that if
the joan or if the Brigs are now going to implement a single coin and
my opinion, very personal and I can be wrong, is that rather this
is going to be opened, rather in places that we have only one coin,
maybe we have three or four and we are going to have to get
used to living together. It is not going to balance power and if it
would be, obviously, the happy world to get there, because it will
not be easy and it will have to get many complicated and complex situations,
because everyone will be defending their terrain and power, as it says also go
here and that they are mentioning it right now, it is what will happen
with these countries that are already negotiating in Chinese currency, because forgiveness with those
who are already negotiating with Chinese currency. I don' t have many examples
like that at the hands of companies that are negotiating. But to this day,
as we know it, because the dollar is still the international currency of
exchange, I do not have many examples. I' m telling you this
example of a footballer. It came to me very well because or because the
complexity and the obstacles that are going to begin are precise. Let' s
start seeing that we' re engaged in international trade. Hey this alexi also
see how you' re going the future with super weight and with the changes
we' re having in Mexico as well. What I' ve read about
super weight is that it' s one is a consequence of several factors.
Obviously, the issue of neal shorring has appreciated the currency because, within all
this geopolitical, geo- economic re- accommodation, mainly Western companies or companies
have wanted to take their production out of China and have passed it to other
markets. Yet, fortunately, for us our reference is the United States.
This, then, results in many companies coming and still appetizing to the US
market. In the United States, the United States has been doing a lot
of work inside. They have right now, the IRA called or the Teamflation
Reduction Active is basically a series of incentives that give everyone who invests in energy
and give money back to the companies, to the people they buy cars from.
You see that initially this law signed by the President of Baden, said
that those Americans who bought electric cars were going to be returned money in their
tax declarations. Fortunately, and that' s where the U S canal government
got alive, and they went on to wade disputes and modify this law to
be built cars in the North American region. And it was one of the
main reasons why Teslab decided to come and put his plant here, that effect
of bringing more chapter and that we are attractive, not because of the issue
of public administration, not because of the issue of security, for many issues
that, while they are painful, is what has been appreciating the weight of
China, as it has come down in its economy and the part that the
dollar has also been weakening. However, one of the points of risk that
I saw quite important, was the pressure points that the Mexican economy has,
because of so much legal uncertainty, for the electoral year and, above all,
for the indexes in relationaries. That could potentially play us the other way
around and in the next few months volatility, because we would happen what each
sexenia a time plan that runs out of the sexenium and the weight comes down.
I hope it doesn' t happen. But, because what I was
reading about this topic and to close with the questions says good. Obviously,
there are many congratulations and we are also asked here whether it is enough in
Mersharring to have international competitiveness, that is, that there is also a need
for more research and technological development and to become a manufacturing country. Yeah,
we definitely do, and, on the other hand, we need you as
a legal man. Today, there seems to be a fan of ending simex
companies and what we are seeing, for example, that the aeronautics law of
reducing the number of flights at Mexico City airport, the militarization of customs,
there are many things that, while not bad and are good ideas. I
mean, the NAM seems to be a copy paste of the Home plan Security.
Boa' s new security profile is a faithful copy of the CITPATI security
profile. They are necessary things, but execution has not been the best,
the best and the most accepted. So, if you need a lot of
things to take advantage of this moment, listen, I said at the last
but well, how do you see the next US elections for Latin America and
they' re going to be transcendent, just as much polarization. We'
re already seeing it. There is not a very strong candidate who is President
Trump. There is an adsverse social and economic scenario for those living in the
United States. There is a lot of discontent and then I was also reading
an article that became quite interesting to me that President Trump promised to end the
war in Russia Ukraine, and I was seeing that they are different points of
view. For the President of Biden, the enemy is Russia, for the
President of Trumpe the enemy China. And in the middle of all that,
because who we' re good for Trump to be, because maybe Mexico certainly
did very well with the President. We don' t know, but they
' re going to be transcendent and whatever happens in America. Thank you very
much, Alexy. Well, right now. Now the microphone for the panelists
if you want to make a comment Doctor. Thank you, Daniela. Congratulations
Alejandro, really very interesting your talk and very well decorated with your slides.
That map, although it looks strange, but gives us precisely the sense in
the maritime traffic where the ports are and how the maritime lines that are above
all moving, carrying out international trade, are moving. I believe that the
issue is a fundamental issue in order to understand international trade well, not more
in our trade, but in trade around the world. And you' ve
done it, because it' s really extraordinary. I was thinking about it.
When you spoke of Panama, I remembered the Torrijos Carter Treaty, which
gave Panama total absolute control over the canal from nine hundred and ninety- nine.
And the reference to what led me to think is that, because you
said something historically, geopolitics has served us, and what I reflected is that
the current government would have had, would have applied the historical experience we had
with that stretch of the isthmus of Teguantepec, of course, in which in
the time of Porfirio Díaz, of course that corridor opened and worked. It
worked well for a good number of years with profits for our country. But
when the Panama Canal arises, this because our traffics are falling apart. We
are trying to do that when, geopolitically, exclusive economic zones were more acceptable.
It' s a very personal opinion. Of course, exclusive economic zones
such as China, which gave it a great rise shen Chen, which was
a fishing village of five thousand inhabitants, now has several million people and has
the most important industrial and manufacturing companies. Why, because geopolitically it is very
close to Hong Kong has everything for precisely with that vision that the Chinese had
to be an exclusive economic zone, the most important and that it has the
best development. And that' s why I set it as an example in
China and the world. And those are precisely the geopolitical aspects that are necessary,
especially for our rulers, to analyze to take action on many things.
But speaking of international trade in this branch, if we had thought better about
continuing with those areas, I think we would have done better than with the
transoceanicism, which is being attempted, because historically we have seen that congratulations have
failed. Alejandro extraordinary so much I loved your talk very well really, uh,
thank you, thank you, very much listen gras comments, because here
there are many congratulations. The truth is that they say the masterful way you
expose it, not applauding your exhibition and take the opportunity to throw the entire
three- week team in Mexico and let' s barter to give you this
virtual recognition, Alex. The truth is, thank you very much for sharing
your knowledge, Alejandro al licenciado, Alejandro Alcalte, for doing a little in
the usual practice with the geopolitical issue and foreign trade, on September 6 of
the two thousand twenty- three, signed by Dr Fede la Torre and your
servant, Alex. Thank you so much. Really super practical. Thank you
always a pleasure to greet you, a privilege to be here thanks to everyone,
to my friends who gave me your greetings. Good afternoon we' ve
reached the end of today' s trout. Thank you so much for joining
us. This was let' s make a viazom barter an event of tels
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