WEBVTT 1 00:00:00.080 --> 00:00:03.120 Hey guys, it's Jack. I just wanted to talk to you today about 2 00:00:03.160 --> 00:00:06.639 a way that you can help support the podcast. If you're not already, 3 00:00:06.960 --> 00:00:10.679 we would really appreciate it if you guys went and reviewed us on Apple or 4 00:00:10.720 --> 00:00:15.800 Spotify. Those reviews really help people find the podcast and help it get recognized, 5 00:00:16.160 --> 00:00:19.079 and you know, if you've been enjoying the show, we really appreciate 6 00:00:19.120 --> 00:00:23.800 your support. Another thing that you can do to support the channel is to 7 00:00:24.000 --> 00:00:28.960 become a Patreon member. So we have Patreon memberships that started just five dollars 8 00:00:29.000 --> 00:00:32.640 a month, and when you sign up, you get access to all of 9 00:00:32.640 --> 00:00:36.280 our episodes add free. That's the big bonus for that. I mean, 10 00:00:36.280 --> 00:00:41.479 we also do some Patreon bonus episodes for our subscribers, but this is the 11 00:00:41.840 --> 00:00:47.560 biggest and best way that you can support the Teamhouse channel and podcast if you'd 12 00:00:47.759 --> 00:00:51.200 like to, and we really appreciate that. So go and check us out 13 00:00:51.200 --> 00:00:56.799 at patreon dot com Slash the Teamhouse. Hello everyone, Welcome to another episode 14 00:00:56.880 --> 00:01:04.040 of Izon. I'm Andy Miilba recentlyons Dimitri Tacos, Hello, Heydeed. So 15 00:01:04.120 --> 00:01:10.120 today I think we've got unfortunately lots of action in the in the Middle East 16 00:01:10.159 --> 00:01:15.319 to talk about you want to kick off about the strike in Damascus yesterday. 17 00:01:15.719 --> 00:01:19.959 Yeah, I mean everyone pretty much saw what happened already. Now, I 18 00:01:19.959 --> 00:01:26.239 mean Israel's kind of kind of brazen airstrike on the Iranian consulate that's our right 19 00:01:26.280 --> 00:01:29.400 next door of the Iranian embassy, which is also right next door to the 20 00:01:29.400 --> 00:01:37.159 Canadian embassy, killing seven you know IRGC. Yeah, yeah, it was 21 00:01:38.439 --> 00:01:41.680 Look, this was the you know, I'll jump to the chase. This 22 00:01:41.879 --> 00:01:52.319 was the most significant strike that the Israelis have conducted on Coods Force like ever. 23 00:01:53.239 --> 00:01:57.879 The top three field commanders within Kodes Force were killed. I'll say that 24 00:01:57.920 --> 00:02:05.560 again, the top three field commanders. Hussein Amanulla who was who was he 25 00:02:05.680 --> 00:02:10.919 was chief of staff for Syria and Lebanon, and then uh Rahimi hajj Rahimi, 26 00:02:10.919 --> 00:02:15.879 who's a you know, to say, a Koutsforce guy is controversial. 27 00:02:15.919 --> 00:02:21.960 Well, Rahimi's particularly controversial because his mandate is Palestine, right, and so 28 00:02:23.439 --> 00:02:27.039 a lot of discussion about whether he knew about these attacks, whether he was 29 00:02:27.080 --> 00:02:31.800 involved in them or not. The Israelis were convinced that that that Harmas did 30 00:02:31.840 --> 00:02:37.560 at least inform him inform that attacks were coming. They may not his Boa 31 00:02:37.680 --> 00:02:42.599 and Iran may have not realized this scale, but nevertheless soon became aware of 32 00:02:42.599 --> 00:02:46.319 them and reinforced them one hundred percent. So this is kind of revenge for 33 00:02:46.400 --> 00:02:53.960 that. And the third guy, third guy killed General Zahiti, all right, 34 00:02:54.000 --> 00:03:00.319 The Israelis called him Madabi. He's actually he's a former head of or 35 00:03:00.479 --> 00:03:07.840 Kuod's force in Syria and Lebanon, and he is he's actually rumored to be 36 00:03:07.960 --> 00:03:13.280 Cannee's successor. Cornee is a Cala, the head of Kotz force, so 37 00:03:13.879 --> 00:03:16.560 very very significant. I'll pause there, guys to see if you have any 38 00:03:16.599 --> 00:03:21.360 questions. Yeah, I was gonna sorry to drag you back to the beginning, 39 00:03:21.400 --> 00:03:23.159 but for those who don't know, can you give a little background on 40 00:03:23.159 --> 00:03:28.960 what Kud's force is? Yeah? Absolutely, And you know this term gets 41 00:03:29.120 --> 00:03:34.800 used a lot, so look just by way of creds. Okay, this 42 00:03:34.879 --> 00:03:38.280 doesn't make me an expert, but I'm one of probably one of the few 43 00:03:38.080 --> 00:03:46.319 US military guys I would venture perhaps the only one since aside from the hostages, 44 00:03:46.599 --> 00:03:49.759 who spent time in an Iranian jail. Okay, and now we've got 45 00:03:49.759 --> 00:03:55.000 to qualify that very brief period of time being questioned by the Revolutionary Guard as 46 00:03:55.039 --> 00:04:00.960 they were called then back soon after when the eleven years after the revolution, 47 00:04:01.080 --> 00:04:05.639 the beginning of the war with Iran, I was in Tehran, taken off 48 00:04:05.639 --> 00:04:11.520 a bus and questioned by them. Again, that doesn't make me an expert, 49 00:04:11.560 --> 00:04:17.639 but it does it removes any any reservations that may have about watching the 50 00:04:17.879 --> 00:04:23.759 organization they are, uh, because many other people at the time were disappearing. 51 00:04:23.959 --> 00:04:29.480 Anyway, cut to the chase, the the Revolutionary Guards, uh, 52 00:04:29.639 --> 00:04:33.079 the Iranian Revolutory Guards Court to give it its full title. You hear it 53 00:04:33.160 --> 00:04:38.399 referred to as the IRGC. I think of them as kind of, you 54 00:04:38.399 --> 00:04:44.959 know, the uh, the Islamic Revolutions version of the Republican Guard. UH. 55 00:04:45.319 --> 00:04:49.480 You know, the every revolution has a small group of the Jacobins, 56 00:04:49.480 --> 00:04:54.360 and the French revolution a small group of activists, and the Revolutionary Guard with 57 00:04:54.519 --> 00:05:00.079 that, and they then became the de facto administration regime of Iran, backing 58 00:05:00.160 --> 00:05:05.120 up Supreme Leader Ali Komeni, who became the Supreme Leader in nineteen eighty nine. 59 00:05:05.160 --> 00:05:08.959 So you see now, you know a lot of these guys are kind 60 00:05:09.000 --> 00:05:13.040 of the same age as me and Jason, you know, old enough to 61 00:05:13.079 --> 00:05:17.279 be D's grandfather. They but they were students, you know in the seventies, 62 00:05:17.319 --> 00:05:20.879 back in late seventies, you know, you name it. Utman imagad 63 00:05:21.519 --> 00:05:28.360 Hussein in ceremony starts trying to remember his name, all of these guys, 64 00:05:28.360 --> 00:05:31.319 and now they're at the top of the Iranian ranks structure. Now, kots 65 00:05:31.399 --> 00:05:36.519 Force is kind of a subdivision of the ILGC, and they are focused, 66 00:05:36.600 --> 00:05:42.959 they are you know, they well, they've been classified as a terrorist organization 67 00:05:43.959 --> 00:05:47.560 by the US State Department with good reason. But kots Force is responsible for 68 00:05:47.600 --> 00:05:55.240 the Iranian regimes operations overseas, which they conduct primarily through the use of proxies 69 00:05:55.959 --> 00:06:00.480 such as his Bala, such as quite improbably Hamas and probably because her Masses 70 00:06:00.600 --> 00:06:04.759 of course a Sunni organization. But the Ranians who are happy to hold their 71 00:06:04.839 --> 00:06:10.000 nose in this case and support her Maas and then subsequently leave them out to 72 00:06:10.079 --> 00:06:13.839 drive because he Mars is doing their bidding and as long as it is Sunni 73 00:06:13.920 --> 00:06:18.079 Arabs and Israeli's being killed, this all plays very well to the Iranians. 74 00:06:18.120 --> 00:06:24.199 But now they've lost three of the top guys, they have to take action, 75 00:06:24.879 --> 00:06:30.759 and you know, and this is this is what is caused incantscern obviously 76 00:06:30.800 --> 00:06:39.439 within Israel. Now this comes amidst massive demonstrations against Netan Nyahu. It is 77 00:06:40.720 --> 00:06:46.279 many fail a A well they I mean, it's hard to deny it's an 78 00:06:46.399 --> 00:06:51.519 escalation. Many feel that there are political motives for this escalation that it is 79 00:06:53.120 --> 00:07:01.959 you know that that Netanyahu, if you can really really solidify or continue down 80 00:07:02.000 --> 00:07:10.120 this polarization path and and continue this campaign, rally the right behind him, 81 00:07:10.560 --> 00:07:15.000 get the patriotic and and and and kind of the Jewish vote, he will 82 00:07:15.000 --> 00:07:17.800 take this, you know, to the hilt. And that is what's worrying 83 00:07:18.160 --> 00:07:24.120 the vast majority of Israelis right now who don't feel that this is the ticket 84 00:07:24.160 --> 00:07:29.519 that they bought when they when they subscribe to the war on Hamas over to 85 00:07:29.519 --> 00:07:34.560 you back over to you guys anything. Yeah. So, like my understanding 86 00:07:34.600 --> 00:07:40.160 is like Koot's force is basically like an hiergy sees how Iran can kind of 87 00:07:40.199 --> 00:07:43.959 project every power because like they don't really have a military that's strong enough. 88 00:07:44.000 --> 00:07:47.240 That's right, that's right, and and it's masterful because they are you know, 89 00:07:47.279 --> 00:07:53.120 think of all the bumbling efforts we make to to build advisor type units, 90 00:07:53.560 --> 00:07:57.279 right both in the Army and the US Marine Corps A very ad hoc 91 00:07:58.519 --> 00:08:01.319 group of people, and it's not considered a very you know, one of 92 00:08:01.360 --> 00:08:05.759 the things we've always struggled with conventional forces is they want to operate as battalions 93 00:08:05.759 --> 00:08:11.839 and brigades and divisions, but not training foreign indigenous troops. That is so 94 00:08:13.120 --> 00:08:18.800 unsexy, right, But that that is the core of gray zone operations. 95 00:08:18.040 --> 00:08:22.240 I'm using that term, I know, but that is the that's conflict. 96 00:08:22.560 --> 00:08:26.000 Everyone uses proxy. Everyone's doing it, you know, and we should get 97 00:08:26.040 --> 00:08:28.120 on board. The Mozart group was a perfect opportunity, guys, you all 98 00:08:28.120 --> 00:08:37.919 missed it. But so COODS Force are very adept at getting at working with 99 00:08:37.039 --> 00:08:41.960 prozis. You know, they live they live in the country, or they 100 00:08:43.080 --> 00:08:46.919 work with they work closely with them. They I'm not saying for a moment 101 00:08:46.000 --> 00:08:50.240 that they identify with them. They use them here there are tools, but 102 00:08:50.279 --> 00:08:54.200 they do it very well, very well indeed. And so with just a 103 00:08:54.399 --> 00:08:58.039 small, relatively small group of people, you know, Coods Force, just 104 00:08:58.080 --> 00:09:03.399 a few thousand guys can conduct operations that are having a catastrophic not a catstrophic, 105 00:09:03.440 --> 00:09:07.320 but a global effect. Think about what the hoho this are doing that 106 00:09:07.320 --> 00:09:16.440 we've talked about here Mars is the least capable of all of kusforce's proxies. 107 00:09:16.960 --> 00:09:20.759 His Bolla is the most capable. And that is what everyone is worried about 108 00:09:20.799 --> 00:09:24.919 now, because Iran won't declare or in Israel, Iran's not going to strike 109 00:09:24.000 --> 00:09:31.720 back in the same way. But using his bolla, Iran certainly has the 110 00:09:31.759 --> 00:09:37.480 ability to inflict serious damage on Israel. And it's a question of math. 111 00:09:37.840 --> 00:09:43.759 It's a question of math, precision fires. His bolla has an arsenal now 112 00:09:43.759 --> 00:09:46.679 many times the size of the one that it had in two thousand and six, 113 00:09:46.759 --> 00:09:54.039 and even then was able to overwhelm Iron Dome. Paul's there to see 114 00:09:54.080 --> 00:09:58.440 if you guys have any questions. It's a really, it's a really. 115 00:09:58.960 --> 00:10:05.360 This is a very interesting, important and quite scary flectioning point. And so 116 00:10:05.519 --> 00:10:11.360 kods is uh and this is my own ignorance. Has always been a hands 117 00:10:11.360 --> 00:10:16.480 off force, or have they ever have been indirect? Well? They combat, 118 00:10:16.759 --> 00:10:22.120 well, they they are occasionally involved in in I mean they are involved, 119 00:10:22.159 --> 00:10:26.759 you know, I mean they absolutely they you know, they don't have 120 00:10:26.960 --> 00:10:33.919 this, they don't have this artificial division between advice and assist and a company, 121 00:10:33.000 --> 00:10:35.600 right, No, of course, I mean they but but the point 122 00:10:35.679 --> 00:10:39.159 is they don't need to. They do what they need to do to set 123 00:10:39.159 --> 00:10:46.759 the example, to rally support. I'll give you an example, you know, 124 00:10:46.919 --> 00:10:54.399 for for instance, in Gaza. In Gaza, Israeli intelligence, not 125 00:10:54.440 --> 00:10:58.840 officially, but Israeli intelligence claims that they're picking up Farci in Gaza, a 126 00:10:58.960 --> 00:11:05.039 Kud's Force guy helping direct Hamas operations, all right, and that is the 127 00:11:05.120 --> 00:11:07.840 sort of help that they will give, you know, right up to yeah, 128 00:11:09.200 --> 00:11:15.000 right up to the X. But but the point is they they there's 129 00:11:15.039 --> 00:11:18.080 always and you know this of course, Jason, there's always kind of a 130 00:11:18.399 --> 00:11:24.879 it always they always give Iran deplausible deniability, right, and that is their 131 00:11:24.919 --> 00:11:30.759 strength, you know. I mean it's a Koo's Force is a masterful organization 132 00:11:30.960 --> 00:11:33.840 in that sense. It is a it's very competent, very efficient. They 133 00:11:33.879 --> 00:11:39.080 have their fuck up, some quite hilarious fuck ups at times, but for 134 00:11:39.120 --> 00:11:41.480 the most part they they mean business and they do business, you know. 135 00:11:41.559 --> 00:11:48.279 And this is a very rare successful strike because they are very good at field 136 00:11:48.320 --> 00:11:52.279 craft. By the way, just getting used from the Israelis, and I 137 00:11:52.320 --> 00:11:58.600 think this was reported on US media. Hassein Yusuf, who's a senior has 138 00:11:58.639 --> 00:12:03.039 Boa official, also on the strike. So you've got guys and and an 139 00:12:03.039 --> 00:12:09.279 official from p I J and SoJ Palestinian Islamic TEA hot who are involved in 140 00:12:09.360 --> 00:12:16.679 the fighting in Gaza in support of Hamas. So that problem that strike. 141 00:12:18.759 --> 00:12:22.320 I'm going to go out on a limon say that those names were known before 142 00:12:22.399 --> 00:12:28.840 that, uh that was carried out or maybe like uh, you know, 143 00:12:28.919 --> 00:12:33.559 I'm sure some of them at least, but I'm going to eventually say given 144 00:12:33.600 --> 00:12:37.360 the names and the stature that it was known, all the names on that 145 00:12:37.440 --> 00:12:43.960 target were known. Yeah. Absolutely, the I mean these guys, these 146 00:12:43.960 --> 00:12:48.440 guys would have been top of the target list. I mean they I'm sure. 147 00:12:48.559 --> 00:12:54.559 I'm sure they're on their own target list too, and and so and 148 00:12:54.559 --> 00:12:58.200 And that's a really good point, Jason, because you know how it is 149 00:12:58.240 --> 00:13:03.080 when something happens and assumes that the approximate cause is something that happened right before 150 00:13:03.120 --> 00:13:07.279 that. I'll give you the case in point. All right, So the 151 00:13:07.279 --> 00:13:11.480 the destruction there was a drone attack on a lap you know, two days 152 00:13:11.480 --> 00:13:16.879 ago, and then right after this the strike on Damascus. Well, you 153 00:13:16.879 --> 00:13:20.519 don't throw together strikes that easily, you know, I mean, this had 154 00:13:20.559 --> 00:13:24.799 been planned and they were just waiting for for a for a reason, and 155 00:13:24.840 --> 00:13:30.519 the reason was probably as you know, the time, location, the trigger, 156 00:13:30.879 --> 00:13:33.480 which had nothing to do with retaliation for any other event. How often 157 00:13:33.519 --> 00:13:37.759 do you get these seven individuals in a room. It would have been a 158 00:13:37.840 --> 00:13:43.240 high level decision obviously, but it just seemed probably like too juicy a target 159 00:13:43.279 --> 00:13:48.080 to pass up. Because now you know, as we've all seen these targeted 160 00:13:48.159 --> 00:13:52.000 killings, they they rarely have a good effect. It's a long time, 161 00:13:52.159 --> 00:13:56.200 like we all we all feel good, Oh great, but you name it, 162 00:13:56.279 --> 00:13:58.000 you know, yeah, Like why is it followed by someone worse? 163 00:13:58.200 --> 00:14:01.919 What is the blow at look like? Now? Like after these guys have 164 00:14:03.000 --> 00:14:05.799 been taken out and stuff like that, Like what's a response from Iran? 165 00:14:05.840 --> 00:14:11.080 Look like? Is it just through Azbola? Like, yeah, I would 166 00:14:11.120 --> 00:14:13.519 guess the res I mean, first of all, there has to be a 167 00:14:13.559 --> 00:14:20.200 response. Two, yes, his bolla because but it won't just be his 168 00:14:20.279 --> 00:14:26.000 Bala. They will probably be renewed drone attacks on southern Israel from the hohofies. 169 00:14:26.519 --> 00:14:31.080 But certainly, Yeah, this is what would be interesting is to know 170 00:14:31.879 --> 00:14:37.720 what the discussion is that is taking place now between ISRAELA and Kromani. You 171 00:14:37.759 --> 00:14:41.600 know, Inzraela. By the way, in Israela Hassan Israela is the head 172 00:14:41.600 --> 00:14:46.559 of Lebanese Hezbala. And you know this, this warrants a whole show by 173 00:14:46.600 --> 00:14:54.759 itself. But he bottom line is Nisralla is he's not a Lebanese patriot, 174 00:14:54.960 --> 00:14:58.840 but he's not certainly not an Iranian stooge either. He is about himself and 175 00:15:00.159 --> 00:15:07.120 about Lebanese has Boller. And the problem within cycling a war with Israel is 176 00:15:07.159 --> 00:15:13.080 that it sets him back in time, right. He's he's got a plan, 177 00:15:13.159 --> 00:15:16.320 and his plan is that, you know, the state of Lebanon becomes 178 00:15:16.399 --> 00:15:20.200 essentially his Boller state, and he's he's a long way along that path. 179 00:15:20.279 --> 00:15:22.840 We've talked about this when you look at members of the you know, the 180 00:15:22.919 --> 00:15:28.039 cabinet there, you look at the problems the militaries having with his Boller infiltration, 181 00:15:28.080 --> 00:15:31.000 all of these things. So he's almost there. He has built up 182 00:15:31.000 --> 00:15:35.440 his arsenal, which was devastated in the two thousand and six award. He's 183 00:15:35.519 --> 00:15:39.879 he's built it up to a point where yeah, it you know, when 184 00:15:41.679 --> 00:15:46.679 we talk existential threat and very nearly existential threat, I mean not existential, 185 00:15:46.759 --> 00:15:54.240 but can can certainly has has the capability to inflict tens of thousands of casualties 186 00:15:54.399 --> 00:15:58.720 on the Israeli population. But to do so, yes, he will become 187 00:15:58.720 --> 00:16:06.679 Abal hero, but his bolla will take a schwacking. The Israelis were stumbling 188 00:16:07.559 --> 00:16:11.240 sometimes, who have been stumbling when it comes to targeting and gaza, but 189 00:16:11.320 --> 00:16:18.240 they have everything in Lebanon dialed in. They've had forty years literally to do 190 00:16:18.279 --> 00:16:22.000 this all right. They cannot hit all the time, they don't have enough 191 00:16:22.080 --> 00:16:25.639 ammunition to hit all the targets, but they all try, and that is 192 00:16:25.720 --> 00:16:32.320 what That'zrola knows. And the backlash will probably go against his bolla, and 193 00:16:32.399 --> 00:16:36.799 so he's walking a fine line. He wants, you know, he senses 194 00:16:36.960 --> 00:16:38.720 that the you know, the Arab streets, but you know, on the 195 00:16:38.720 --> 00:16:45.360 Shea side, everyone is really outraged. This this level of anger in the 196 00:16:45.440 --> 00:16:48.679 Arab world. I don't we haven't seen it in our lifetimes, and it's 197 00:16:48.720 --> 00:16:55.240 easy to overlook it from where we are, but it is, it is. 198 00:16:55.879 --> 00:17:00.240 It has gathered a momentum that is quite frightening, and Azraela realizes that. 199 00:17:00.360 --> 00:17:03.720 So now he's caught and the Israelis have just pushed the Iranians right into 200 00:17:03.839 --> 00:17:11.359 kind of openly having to to demand retribution. So everything seems set for his 201 00:17:11.480 --> 00:17:15.519 balla strike into Israel. I'll pause that from him. Given everything you just 202 00:17:15.559 --> 00:17:21.759 said, do you think there's a it's plausible that Esrala would say no that 203 00:17:21.839 --> 00:17:25.240 you know he's told, hey, we need you know. That's that's the 204 00:17:25.359 --> 00:17:27.400 ten million dollar question, Jason. And the answer is no. One knows, 205 00:17:27.440 --> 00:17:32.480 not even you know. If you talk to Israeli intelligence guys who have 206 00:17:32.720 --> 00:17:37.759 kind of who have lived in israela for the entire careers, and there are 207 00:17:37.880 --> 00:17:41.759 guys like that and women, and they will tell you they don't know. 208 00:17:41.079 --> 00:17:48.039 You know he is and Osralla is. He's a very very smart guy. 209 00:17:48.599 --> 00:17:52.960 But he also plays his cards quite close to his chest. That's why he's 210 00:17:52.960 --> 00:17:57.240 still alive. We don't know, we don't know. And everyone since this 211 00:17:57.480 --> 00:18:00.119 kicked off, I say everyone, but you know, all the pundits have 212 00:18:00.160 --> 00:18:06.359 been asking will he say no to Iran? Does he have enough laster power 213 00:18:06.599 --> 00:18:15.440 confidence by himself to do so? And we will see and so you know, 214 00:18:15.559 --> 00:18:18.279 things go ahead. A number of other things are taking place too. 215 00:18:18.559 --> 00:18:22.559 This morning there was an attack on well, first of all, you know, 216 00:18:22.599 --> 00:18:26.440 relations between Israel and the United States are the worst that they have ever 217 00:18:26.519 --> 00:18:30.240 been. Again, you know, I stick to facts on this show that 218 00:18:30.519 --> 00:18:37.839 for the first time ever, Guy's polls are showing the US population public disagree 219 00:18:37.920 --> 00:18:44.400 with with what's something that Israelis are doing foreign policy, how they're headling Gaza 220 00:18:44.880 --> 00:18:52.480 all right, and you know there's Netna who's snubs to the president are Netna 221 00:18:52.599 --> 00:18:56.960 who is banking on Trump victory. But then Trump the other day said, 222 00:18:57.039 --> 00:19:00.799 hey, Israel just needs to finish this. You know, he seemed impatient. 223 00:19:00.799 --> 00:19:03.319 Of course he is. The Republicans don't understand. I mean, the 224 00:19:03.799 --> 00:19:08.599 Republicans don't want this probably going on either. My point is that everyone realized 225 00:19:08.640 --> 00:19:15.440 that this is severely damaging to the US prestige or view in the world. 226 00:19:15.440 --> 00:19:18.759 And we don't have a lot of waks to depend on right now, and 227 00:19:18.799 --> 00:19:22.640 we're being dragged into the toilet. That's one argument, but it's hard to 228 00:19:22.759 --> 00:19:26.519 argue against, to be honest with you. So what I wanted to do, 229 00:19:26.559 --> 00:19:30.000 you know, and then the well, but at the same time, 230 00:19:30.039 --> 00:19:32.599 at the same time, we're giving them, you know, eighteen billion dollars 231 00:19:32.599 --> 00:19:36.680 in military aid. Yeah, what's it, three point six billion dollars a 232 00:19:36.799 --> 00:19:37.920 year? You know, and no, but they're given like the new Aid 233 00:19:37.920 --> 00:19:41.160 package, right of ag Yeah, absolutely, yeah, And you know the 234 00:19:41.200 --> 00:19:45.400 point is, but we have been giving them three point you know, billions 235 00:19:45.400 --> 00:19:49.920 of dollars every year. And there was a very funny Saturday Night Live sketch 236 00:19:51.160 --> 00:19:56.200 in Israel. They've got that version of Saturday Night Live where you know, 237 00:19:56.200 --> 00:19:59.839 they've got this guy playing Net and Yahoo and he's like, no, tell 238 00:19:59.880 --> 00:20:03.000 the goings to fuck off, you know, tell them, you know, 239 00:20:03.079 --> 00:20:07.200 tell them to take that three you know, three point six billion dollars and 240 00:20:07.240 --> 00:20:10.440 shove it up their ass. You know. So this was kind of a 241 00:20:10.480 --> 00:20:15.079 realization among the segment of the Israeli population who have close ties with the United 242 00:20:15.079 --> 00:20:19.279 States, who we don't want to alienate the United States. We feel more 243 00:20:19.319 --> 00:20:23.599 in ni kin with the United States and with Israel. And then you get 244 00:20:23.599 --> 00:20:30.839 this world food kitchen striker case seven killed US, Canada, Australia, Poland, 245 00:20:30.839 --> 00:20:34.920 and the United Kingdom aside from the usual Palestinians. All right, whichever 246 00:20:34.960 --> 00:20:40.359 way you look at it, his, you know, his his. What 247 00:20:40.480 --> 00:20:45.359 the news is reporting that the convoy, uh, give me a second, 248 00:20:47.240 --> 00:20:53.119 that it was that it was coordinated, that the yep, the coordinates were 249 00:20:53.160 --> 00:20:57.000 set in blah blah blah blah, but it was still struck. He is 250 00:20:57.079 --> 00:21:02.920 really said that they were investigating. Initial they said that it was operating outside 251 00:21:02.960 --> 00:21:07.680 curfew in an area, not coordinated. But now they apparently are calling to 252 00:21:07.240 --> 00:21:11.440 the ladiest yeah, admitting that yes, it was coordinated. So so here's 253 00:21:11.480 --> 00:21:18.599 another a potential rift between the US and Israel. You know, I mean, 254 00:21:18.160 --> 00:21:22.079 none of us like the thought that Israel or any country can kill our 255 00:21:22.160 --> 00:21:26.480 citizens without without even asking. You know, I know that sounds ridiculous, 256 00:21:26.480 --> 00:21:30.200 but I mean because they'd ask me. They said, no, you fucking 257 00:21:30.240 --> 00:21:34.119 cannot kill He's working for the World Food Kitchen. By the way, you 258 00:21:34.200 --> 00:21:42.599 know, another inside I have here is having having driven you know, food 259 00:21:44.200 --> 00:21:51.160 humanitarian assistance under bombardiment for the World Food Kitchen. Obviously, I'm not completely 260 00:21:51.920 --> 00:21:56.160 unbiased in this in this story. Any any questions on that, I mean, 261 00:21:56.200 --> 00:22:00.799 like, I think it's okay to not be be a little biased because 262 00:22:00.839 --> 00:22:06.920 they killed fucking aid workers. They didn't kill like you know, hamask guys 263 00:22:07.039 --> 00:22:10.000 hiding in in a hospital that like, you know, whether it's what they 264 00:22:10.039 --> 00:22:12.000 do nor it was aid workers. It was clearly marked, its coordinated. 265 00:22:12.799 --> 00:22:15.559 What do we don't. I mean, you know, it's supposed to be 266 00:22:15.599 --> 00:22:17.759 the best military in the world. I get it's war and it's a fucking 267 00:22:17.799 --> 00:22:21.799 disaster and it's mayhem and it's chaos, but like, do they even give 268 00:22:21.839 --> 00:22:27.119 a shit about how like the world honestly the United States perceives them or they're 269 00:22:27.119 --> 00:22:32.359 just gonna keep doing like what they're gonna do and that's that. Yeah, 270 00:22:32.440 --> 00:22:34.720 I'm gonna ask you your question. D just very quick. Just's some more 271 00:22:34.759 --> 00:22:41.440 stuff coming in sure, So the uh, despite despite this is coming from 272 00:22:41.440 --> 00:22:45.039 the World Food Kitchen Aaron gole Ceo, despite coordinating movements for the IDEF, 273 00:22:45.119 --> 00:22:49.119 the convoy was hit at as it was leaving Daro Bala Warehouse, where the 274 00:22:49.160 --> 00:22:53.759 team had unloaded more than one hundred tons of humanitarian food eight Borti Gaza on 275 00:22:53.839 --> 00:22:59.960 maritime route. Reports saw that it was hit actually three times from aeron Gol. 276 00:23:00.079 --> 00:23:03.359 This is not only attack against World Food Kitchen, attack on manager and 277 00:23:03.480 --> 00:23:07.480 organizations. Yeah, blah blah, Hey three times. What happened? They 278 00:23:07.519 --> 00:23:10.200 didn't get it right the first two. I don't know who knows where Anyway, 279 00:23:10.200 --> 00:23:11.839 they you know, we'll see. I'm not I'm not dismissing I'm saying, 280 00:23:11.839 --> 00:23:15.759 this is yeah, this is this is serious. It seems almost as 281 00:23:15.799 --> 00:23:22.000 though net Yahoo is not net Yahoo is doing but Bridge burning things right, 282 00:23:22.200 --> 00:23:26.960 And if you've seen the movie Wag the Dog, you might be thinking along 283 00:23:26.000 --> 00:23:30.640 those lines. It's quite concerning, Well, what's that, what's what's the 284 00:23:30.759 --> 00:23:34.240 play, like, what's the strategy in doing that? To not have any 285 00:23:34.279 --> 00:23:38.319 allies left? Oh no, no, no to to net Yahoo. This 286 00:23:38.519 --> 00:23:44.920 all makes this, this all makes perfect sense. By the way, it's 287 00:23:44.960 --> 00:23:48.160 really has is right in if you mentioned they haven't accept their responsibility for the 288 00:23:48.240 --> 00:23:52.039 Damascus sign, but it you know, it does, it does make sense. 289 00:23:52.079 --> 00:23:59.319 So you think about it. You push Iran into war, you recover 290 00:23:59.480 --> 00:24:04.000 Gaza right for the state of Israel, which is what which is what Netnia 291 00:24:04.039 --> 00:24:08.000 who's base, is pushing for, to colonize Gaza and make it part of 292 00:24:08.079 --> 00:24:12.000 Israel. You know, that's that's the dog whistle piece you know in the 293 00:24:12.039 --> 00:24:18.079 background here, but it's it's quite openly discussed among the members of our of 294 00:24:18.160 --> 00:24:23.960 the right wing in Israel. So he's going to satisfy the Israeli extremists, 295 00:24:25.880 --> 00:24:30.640 the ultra Orthodox, who are also by the way, you know, calling 296 00:24:30.680 --> 00:24:33.160 on him to destroy our AXA and rebuild the temple. You know, I 297 00:24:33.160 --> 00:24:37.039 mean, I'm wondering whether this is gonna the Al Jorthodox who don't fight either 298 00:24:37.599 --> 00:24:42.119 exactly, and that is also causing internal problems in Israel. They call you 299 00:24:42.160 --> 00:24:47.480 know, they they are they're good at beating up or shooting, you know. 300 00:24:47.559 --> 00:24:52.920 Reportedly, this is the argument, okay, from from many in Israel. 301 00:24:52.319 --> 00:24:56.640 Hey, these guys push us to the brink of war. They cause 302 00:24:56.720 --> 00:25:00.640 problems with the Palestinians, and yet they don't have to deal with the consequences 303 00:25:00.640 --> 00:25:07.240 because they don't have to serve. And Netna, who has fought against removing 304 00:25:07.279 --> 00:25:12.200 that exemption, the Supreme Court is you know, has said that the exemption 305 00:25:12.359 --> 00:25:17.279 is no longer valid. So Netnar, who is dragging his feet on how 306 00:25:17.319 --> 00:25:19.839 to implement this, saying it's going to take a decade to bring these guys 307 00:25:19.880 --> 00:25:26.000 into the military. So you can see how this resentment is building. But 308 00:25:26.079 --> 00:25:33.519 they are who's base and political survival was very very important to him, and 309 00:25:33.759 --> 00:25:37.960 and and so dividing the world in this way in a way that it hasn't 310 00:25:38.039 --> 00:25:42.000 been divided since the early eighties over Israel, and as far worse than it 311 00:25:42.039 --> 00:25:47.799 was in the early eighties. Is it makes perfect sense to him. He's 312 00:25:47.920 --> 00:25:52.799 driving away friendly you know, I mean moderate friendly Arab countries such as Jordan. 313 00:25:52.799 --> 00:25:56.759 He's driving, I mean he is. He has antagonized the Arab street 314 00:25:56.799 --> 00:26:00.240 beyond all measure. So I think, I think, you know, the 315 00:26:00.279 --> 00:26:06.079 real question here is what else could he have done? What else could he? 316 00:26:06.240 --> 00:26:10.720 And I you know, I've got some thoughts here, And bear in 317 00:26:10.759 --> 00:26:15.440 mind, my thoughts are not from an armchair, you know. I've I've 318 00:26:15.480 --> 00:26:18.920 had to deal with these problems for real. And you know, there's a 319 00:26:19.039 --> 00:26:23.240 number of reasons why so many civilians are going to be killed. Underlying it 320 00:26:23.359 --> 00:26:30.480 all, frankly, is is a I mean, in some cases it's explicit, 321 00:26:30.720 --> 00:26:36.359 you know, by you will protect your soldiers' lives at all costs, 322 00:26:37.480 --> 00:26:41.200 and implicit to that on then Neva stated in an order, is if that 323 00:26:41.279 --> 00:26:48.839 means a choice between killing many Palasilian civilians or having your own soldiers killed, 324 00:26:48.079 --> 00:26:52.920 then that's not a choice, you know. And so a lot of the 325 00:26:52.039 --> 00:26:57.559 things that that we do in the in the US, to do with proportionality, 326 00:26:57.799 --> 00:27:06.279 or to do with identification, of discrimination, identification, all these things 327 00:27:06.279 --> 00:27:11.119 that we're familiar with are not the norm now they use these terms, and 328 00:27:11.160 --> 00:27:14.839 I'll give you an example. Have how it goes awry. They do collateral 329 00:27:14.920 --> 00:27:18.799 damage assessments. But here is how it's done. First of all, their 330 00:27:18.880 --> 00:27:23.480 intelligence within Gaza is not that it is not that good, and it's not 331 00:27:23.559 --> 00:27:27.400 a fault of Israeli's intelligence. It's just Tomas. It's got really fucking good 332 00:27:27.400 --> 00:27:33.400 at operating without giving their presence away. Okay, So a lot of the 333 00:27:33.400 --> 00:27:40.079 intel they're getting is based on drone observations and it's fleeting intelligence. So they 334 00:27:40.079 --> 00:27:45.079 feel like they have to make a decision very quickly, and so they do, 335 00:27:45.160 --> 00:27:48.839 and they always err on the side of caution for themselves or their forces. 336 00:27:49.160 --> 00:27:56.000 They will and so one of the problems here is that the Israeli spokesman 337 00:27:56.079 --> 00:28:00.559 can say, pro former, Hey, here's what we're doing, and it 338 00:28:00.680 --> 00:28:03.799 is true, and we have people, you know, and a guy like 339 00:28:03.839 --> 00:28:07.680 a guy I have great respect for. John Spencer, the Irregular Warfare Institute, 340 00:28:07.720 --> 00:28:11.039 goes to Israel, gets their brief, comes back, writes an article 341 00:28:11.039 --> 00:28:17.200 in Newsweek, saying there's no army in the world takes so many measures to 342 00:28:17.240 --> 00:28:21.960 prevent civilian casualties. Well, John is a great guy. The greatest respect 343 00:28:21.960 --> 00:28:25.359 for him, But that is simply not true. John didn't of course didn't 344 00:28:25.400 --> 00:28:29.920 lie, but he made a lot of statements without really looking behind. And 345 00:28:29.920 --> 00:28:33.839 I'll give you examples. Okay, Collateral damage assessments are based on their intel, 346 00:28:33.839 --> 00:28:38.319 but their intail is not good and they're under and again, you know, 347 00:28:38.359 --> 00:28:42.880 the arbiter is always if you don't make this strike or it Israeli forces 348 00:28:44.039 --> 00:28:51.279 risk raised. Okay, that is it's it's It doesn't get into detailed proportionality. 349 00:28:51.279 --> 00:28:55.240 This isn't me just shooting. And I'm getting this and from guys I've 350 00:28:55.279 --> 00:29:00.000 spoken to, and in fact it's in the papers in Israel too. So 351 00:29:00.039 --> 00:29:06.920 here's some quotes, all right from Israeli soldiers. In practice, the terrorist 352 00:29:07.039 --> 00:29:10.559 is anyone the IDF has killed in the areas in which its forces operate, 353 00:29:10.960 --> 00:29:14.799 says an officer who served in Gaza. The feeling we had was there wasn't 354 00:29:14.880 --> 00:29:18.160 there aren't aren't any rules of engagement there. Another soldier says, okay, 355 00:29:21.079 --> 00:29:22.880 so one of the battles, what's the fighting looking like in Gaza? I 356 00:29:22.920 --> 00:29:26.720 mentioned the other day they're taking lower casualties than we did in a Flujah. 357 00:29:26.880 --> 00:29:33.839 Good for them, except that they're causing many, many thousands times, and 358 00:29:33.240 --> 00:29:38.480 civilian counterpeace that we cause in Fallujah, because in Fallujah we took a little 359 00:29:38.519 --> 00:29:42.519 bit more risk because we're Americans. We may call it what you were try. 360 00:29:42.759 --> 00:29:45.960 Even if you disagree with it, I'm proud of the fact that we 361 00:29:47.119 --> 00:29:51.160 risked our own lives to save civilians. There is no such fault within the 362 00:29:51.200 --> 00:29:57.119 Israeli military, and it's very, very firmly rooted in their belief. You 363 00:29:57.160 --> 00:30:02.640 know that the constant belief that Israel under existential threat. Okay, those are 364 00:30:03.119 --> 00:30:06.960 those are kind of the facts. And you know, if anyone wants to 365 00:30:07.039 --> 00:30:10.039 challenge me, and there's okay, you know, by all means, please 366 00:30:10.160 --> 00:30:15.519 do, please do. But remember three Israeli hostages were killed. All right, 367 00:30:15.599 --> 00:30:18.839 they were shot. They were shot. They weren't killed in their strike. 368 00:30:18.039 --> 00:30:23.680 They were shot by Israelis. Even after here's what happened, and this 369 00:30:23.759 --> 00:30:27.559 kind of day. This isn't tearing open the people who did this. It's 370 00:30:27.599 --> 00:30:33.240 explaining why. The problem is a policy, it's not individual actions. So 371 00:30:33.279 --> 00:30:37.839 when these three terrats, these three hostages were killed, a drone was sent 372 00:30:37.119 --> 00:30:41.319 inside the building. But the Israelis having great success using drones inside buildings. 373 00:30:41.799 --> 00:30:45.920 The drone flew into the bill. Oh no shit, sorry, there was 374 00:30:45.960 --> 00:30:49.640 a dog. They sent in a dog, and the dogs all have GoPros, 375 00:30:49.640 --> 00:30:53.519 and the dog picks up these three Israeli hostages and they don't know the 376 00:30:53.519 --> 00:30:59.160 dog has go pro but they're yelling in Israeli and the terrorists. There's coupled 377 00:30:59.240 --> 00:31:04.759 Terrists in there, a couple of wounded. Once the Israelis blow destroyed their 378 00:31:04.759 --> 00:31:08.440 house, they say, and who I don't disbelieve them. You know, 379 00:31:08.480 --> 00:31:15.200 the soldiers involved said they didn't check the go pro camera the hostage. Ah, 380 00:31:15.599 --> 00:31:19.559 excuse me, is a go pro camera live feed or no? No, 381 00:31:19.559 --> 00:31:22.200 no, it's not live feeds? All right? But anyway, so 382 00:31:22.240 --> 00:31:26.000 the hostages, they're not killed in the house destruction, They get on the 383 00:31:26.000 --> 00:31:32.000 street. Two are subsequently shot by Israelis, and now it gets really bad. 384 00:31:32.279 --> 00:31:37.119 The third one runs back into our house. Israeli soldiers follow him in 385 00:31:37.200 --> 00:31:41.519 and shoot him there close range. So I'm like, okay, you know, 386 00:31:41.599 --> 00:31:47.519 think about all think about all the measures here that you know that we 387 00:31:47.680 --> 00:31:52.799 know rules of engagement that would have prevented that happening. So when the Israelis 388 00:31:52.839 --> 00:31:56.920 said, hey, these guys weren't following policy it's hard. It's hard to 389 00:31:56.000 --> 00:32:00.799 understand how so many guys didn't follow policy. And the soldiers involved us saying 390 00:32:00.839 --> 00:32:05.079 that they were told to shoot anything that came into the area, and when 391 00:32:05.079 --> 00:32:07.160 you look at what happened, it's hard to believe. It's hard not to 392 00:32:07.200 --> 00:32:12.599 believe them, Okay, and then you know other soldiers are saying, yeah, 393 00:32:12.599 --> 00:32:17.200 we had free fire zones. Whenever we set up a like a you 394 00:32:17.240 --> 00:32:22.920 know, biboac air, I mean not a like we went firm, but 395 00:32:22.039 --> 00:32:25.359 even moving during the day, we were told shoot anything that came into our 396 00:32:25.480 --> 00:32:30.960 zone. We gave civilians two weeks to move, and if they didn't move, 397 00:32:30.160 --> 00:32:36.759 you know, that's they're fair game. So now there's so many things 398 00:32:37.200 --> 00:32:42.119 that interfere with civilians being able to move in that environment. The messaging wasn't 399 00:32:42.160 --> 00:32:45.759 clear. The Israeli said they use roof knocking, which means firing a small 400 00:32:45.799 --> 00:32:51.480 caliber I mean a smaller carab caliber bomb into the roof or rocket into the 401 00:32:51.559 --> 00:32:54.039 roof before you bomb the building. But you know, there's a problem, 402 00:32:54.240 --> 00:32:59.519 there's a problem with communicaticating with lethal force, all right, It's not always 403 00:32:59.519 --> 00:33:01.839 clearly a parent. If you're in a building and the roof gets hit, 404 00:33:02.160 --> 00:33:05.640 you may probably just think, Wow, that was a close one. You 405 00:33:05.640 --> 00:33:07.799 don't think, hey, this was a very kind warning that I'm about to 406 00:33:07.839 --> 00:33:10.480 be incinerated. If I don't get out of this building, you have to, 407 00:33:10.759 --> 00:33:14.880 you know. I mean, it's it's almost as though they've got this, 408 00:33:15.039 --> 00:33:20.079 Okay, we're going to go through this. The because their intelligence is 409 00:33:20.119 --> 00:33:25.039 not good. They can't make good estimates of proportionality because they don't know the 410 00:33:25.119 --> 00:33:30.559 value of the units or organizations they're going after. So you know, there's 411 00:33:30.599 --> 00:33:37.920 a lot of things wrong with what is being said about about or about that 412 00:33:38.039 --> 00:33:45.039 procedures. And then and then as the shooting their own hostages is concerned, 413 00:33:45.079 --> 00:33:50.440 you would think that that would cause them to reframe everything, but it hasn't 414 00:33:50.480 --> 00:33:53.200 because again, there is this ethos. I mean, there's no doubt there's 415 00:33:53.240 --> 00:34:00.519 revenge underlying this, but that speculation I I the it has got to be 416 00:34:00.599 --> 00:34:02.480 revenge in the back of the human beings involved in this. And this is 417 00:34:02.480 --> 00:34:06.680 why leadership is so important. But if you had leaders I'm not saying this 418 00:34:06.799 --> 00:34:09.480 is happening, but it has happened the US military, if you have leaders 419 00:34:09.519 --> 00:34:15.039 who are reconciled just saying hey, whatever. Man, you know, if 420 00:34:15.079 --> 00:34:21.159 you feel at risk, then by all means. And so when you get 421 00:34:21.159 --> 00:34:27.639 a case like the humanitarian convoy that was fired on and a hundred killed, 422 00:34:27.800 --> 00:34:30.920 the Israeli say only percentage of the proportion of those were killed by the Israelis, 423 00:34:30.960 --> 00:34:36.039 but the hospitals saying that at large. But anyway, bottom line is 424 00:34:36.079 --> 00:34:43.039 definitely number of incidents of people lining up for food being shot by Israeli soldiers. 425 00:34:44.559 --> 00:34:47.320 In every case their answer has been I felt threatened, all right, 426 00:34:47.360 --> 00:34:52.079 and it seems once you uttered those magic words or bets are off and we 427 00:34:52.119 --> 00:34:57.079 went through the stage too, So we can't feel too you know, not 428 00:34:57.920 --> 00:35:00.800 as extremely as this obviously. I mean, can you imagine if we had 429 00:35:00.800 --> 00:35:07.480 caused thirty one thousand civilians death in any operation, we would be facing criminal 430 00:35:07.679 --> 00:35:13.639 charges. Frankly, but yeah, I represent you know, look, I 431 00:35:13.719 --> 00:35:17.719 understand this is a brutal dilemma. But I also, speaking as someone who 432 00:35:17.719 --> 00:35:22.639 has fought house to house and has planned urban operations, I oppose to that. 433 00:35:22.760 --> 00:35:25.960 Guys, if you guse you goun any questions, now, man, 434 00:35:27.039 --> 00:35:30.360 you're the of the three of us, you're the u, the one with 435 00:35:30.400 --> 00:35:35.320 the most expertise on this. So I'm I'm listening. I'm learning it as 436 00:35:35.360 --> 00:35:37.079 well too. I'm sure we're going to hear about it in the comments, 437 00:35:37.079 --> 00:35:40.920 but I don't worry about the comments. Were talking the truth exactly. So 438 00:35:42.519 --> 00:35:45.639 yeah, I'm learning we don't have we don't have a dog in this fight. 439 00:35:45.760 --> 00:35:47.480 Like I don't at least like to be completely honest. I mean, 440 00:35:47.880 --> 00:35:53.880 I understand that Israel needs to like smoke Commas. People like Commas leadership. 441 00:35:53.880 --> 00:35:57.159 I think they should have done it the wrong, the different way instead of 442 00:35:57.199 --> 00:36:00.960 sending like divisions. All right, I'll give you another example. Okay, 443 00:36:01.000 --> 00:36:07.480 so in there and and look, I I was a fast support coordinator by 444 00:36:07.920 --> 00:36:12.000 military occupational speciality. And you know, again that doesn't make me not bragging. 445 00:36:12.559 --> 00:36:16.800 No, I'm just saying because I want to preempt. You know, 446 00:36:16.840 --> 00:36:22.920 they're our favorite contributors who piland and call me an idiot again or I'm a 447 00:36:23.079 --> 00:36:27.039 Roan. But I do know what I'm talking about. And you know the 448 00:36:27.079 --> 00:36:34.360 point is that, for instance, when what the Israelis are doing, they're 449 00:36:34.400 --> 00:36:39.079 saying it is are legitimate targets because Hamas is operating out of you know, 450 00:36:39.159 --> 00:36:43.360 this building, But the building is an apartment block. The Hamas are operating 451 00:36:43.400 --> 00:36:45.599 out of one or two apartments. This is a this is a real case. 452 00:36:45.639 --> 00:36:51.159 By the way, this was oh crap, doesn't matter, I'll get 453 00:36:51.199 --> 00:36:55.039 back to it. It was a building that was destroyed in one so they'll 454 00:36:55.079 --> 00:36:59.800 destroy the whole building. And if they're warning the occupants of that building by 455 00:36:59.840 --> 00:37:02.119 faring into the roof, you can see the problem here. And if you've 456 00:37:02.119 --> 00:37:07.480 got an apartment blanc and people are worried about walking on the streets because they're 457 00:37:07.599 --> 00:37:10.119 free you know, free fire zones, it gets very difficult to be a 458 00:37:10.119 --> 00:37:13.800 civilian. Right, it can't come out in the streets. But if you 459 00:37:13.840 --> 00:37:17.239 say in the building, you're gonna get killed. So yeah, you know 460 00:37:17.440 --> 00:37:22.639 you can say, well netna Hu meanwhile saying Israel has the most moral army 461 00:37:22.639 --> 00:37:27.639 in the world. That may be no one's you know, not making comments 462 00:37:27.679 --> 00:37:30.760 about the morality of the individual soldier. I'm saying that they that that the 463 00:37:30.800 --> 00:37:37.280 way things are set up, the policy that procedures are that their customs are 464 00:37:37.360 --> 00:37:47.519 such that nothing other than massive civilian casualties could be anticipated. Yeah, so 465 00:37:47.559 --> 00:37:52.840 it's fucked, is what. That's the That's what we've realized. I mean, 466 00:37:52.159 --> 00:37:54.360 like, when does it end? Because they're going to go into office 467 00:37:54.440 --> 00:38:00.000 wreck and shape like there too. So where do all those civilians that move 468 00:38:00.000 --> 00:38:04.000 moved away from Gaza City? Where do they go? What's the move? 469 00:38:04.719 --> 00:38:07.960 Doesn't matter to them? Doesn't seem like it From an idiot like me, 470 00:38:07.360 --> 00:38:14.880 it doesn't seem like it. Yeah, well that's a it's just hard to 471 00:38:14.960 --> 00:38:21.079 see a good outcome or a peaceful outcome to this now, DM and the 472 00:38:21.079 --> 00:38:23.960 incidents of the last the attacks and Damascus. Look, I know, I 473 00:38:23.960 --> 00:38:29.679 mean, we went through this discussion, solmony. This somony was one of 474 00:38:29.679 --> 00:38:31.639 my bags, baby. You know when I was I wore uniform. I 475 00:38:31.719 --> 00:38:36.480 was delighted as a human being to see him dead. But I was concerned 476 00:38:36.480 --> 00:38:40.519 that it was not part of a synchronized campaign, all right, and I 477 00:38:40.880 --> 00:38:45.079 suspect that it may not have been. And the same thing here. Okay, 478 00:38:45.239 --> 00:38:52.400 If the Israelis have something lined up to mitigate the backlash, that's good. 479 00:38:52.920 --> 00:38:58.920 If they don't, then the jury's out whether this was a good move. 480 00:38:59.280 --> 00:39:02.119 Right. But there's no way to your point about to your point about 481 00:39:02.199 --> 00:39:07.239 Rafa, this is a This is as near a red line as I can 482 00:39:07.280 --> 00:39:13.239 see between the United States and Israel. All Right. There was a point 483 00:39:13.280 --> 00:39:15.320 where Israel might have got away with saying, hey, look we'll take care 484 00:39:15.360 --> 00:39:20.239 of the civilian population, will put them on the beach, blah blah blah. 485 00:39:20.280 --> 00:39:22.840 But after that, you know, now it seems as though with US 486 00:39:22.840 --> 00:39:29.920 pols swinging against Israel's actions, death of US citizens in the last twenty four 487 00:39:29.920 --> 00:39:34.840 hours is not likely to help that. I would say that the administration's really 488 00:39:35.159 --> 00:39:39.039 going to this today, draw a hard line on Rafa, on going into 489 00:39:39.119 --> 00:39:45.719 Rafa, because that Netnya who has promised promised the Israeli people that that's exactly 490 00:39:45.760 --> 00:39:52.760 what they are, that's what we're doing, you know. So you know, 491 00:39:52.039 --> 00:39:54.719 I guess to kind of summarize what, you know, what I've been 492 00:39:54.760 --> 00:40:05.960 talking about the problem is that frankly, the IDEAF is not taking the trouble 493 00:40:06.000 --> 00:40:09.239 to distinguish between civilians and militants in Gaza. You know, the IDF would 494 00:40:09.280 --> 00:40:12.840 argue, we just don't have time to take you know, we don't. 495 00:40:12.840 --> 00:40:15.679 We can't do any more than we're doing because it's going to put us in 496 00:40:15.840 --> 00:40:22.119 danger. You know, the same time Israel's expanding it's you know, during 497 00:40:22.159 --> 00:40:25.079 your Daza operation, because at the beginning it had very few real targets. 498 00:40:25.320 --> 00:40:29.679 They were all old as you can imagine, they hadn't been tracking commas. 499 00:40:30.360 --> 00:40:32.400 Well now they've got hundreds of targets. But you know how it is, 500 00:40:32.440 --> 00:40:37.320 and you know, people move all the time, and they're dropping dumb two 501 00:40:37.320 --> 00:40:40.320 thousand bombs capable you know, is every a nose or not even know people 502 00:40:40.760 --> 00:40:45.639 killing? That's capable of killing wounding people more than a thousand feet away from 503 00:40:45.639 --> 00:40:49.559 the impact, right CP is what one thousand feet for two thousand It doesn't 504 00:40:49.599 --> 00:40:53.599 matter, you know, I mean it's so how can you possibly say that 505 00:40:54.119 --> 00:41:00.800 when you're dropping dumb bombs in an environment like that, after taking precautions like 506 00:41:00.920 --> 00:41:05.719 roof knocking or dropping leaflets, and expecting people to move in that environment, 507 00:41:05.760 --> 00:41:10.519 how can you really expect civilian casualties to be lower? Also, what I 508 00:41:10.559 --> 00:41:15.840 worry about a little bit is like, you know, like we've discussed in 509 00:41:15.880 --> 00:41:20.800 other other episodes, you know, the Iranian the Cuds force proxies all over 510 00:41:20.840 --> 00:41:24.400 the Middle East, whether they're in Iraq or Syria or wherever are. You 511 00:41:24.400 --> 00:41:29.880 know, kind of we're operating relatively independently, and I don't really see them 512 00:41:29.960 --> 00:41:36.280 differentiating Israel and America for the most part, generally. So like I see 513 00:41:36.280 --> 00:41:39.599 that there is you know, risk to American personnel at bases, whether it's 514 00:41:40.039 --> 00:41:45.320 bag that airport or the embassy or whatever, or Tower twenty two or any 515 00:41:45.320 --> 00:41:47.960 of the other bases we have across the region. So what happens if we 516 00:41:47.960 --> 00:41:52.960 get hit again and we lose a couple of servicemen again, we're brought back 517 00:41:52.000 --> 00:41:55.360 into it, we like in a more kinetic way, like we need to 518 00:41:55.400 --> 00:41:59.599 step up and show like, hey, you don't do that. Here's a 519 00:41:59.599 --> 00:42:02.840 peep whack. Yeah, that's what I worry about. I know Iran doesn't 520 00:42:02.880 --> 00:42:08.599 want to drag Israel or the United States a full fledged war because like their 521 00:42:08.639 --> 00:42:12.760 military is not great. I mean, that's why they use the cuts for 522 00:42:12.960 --> 00:42:15.519 so much. It's because it's projecting. They don't want to go to to 523 00:42:16.000 --> 00:42:22.679 you know, state on state war. This strike against Coots Force officers in 524 00:42:22.719 --> 00:42:28.320 that sense was very deliberately, very deliberately designed to give them no choice. 525 00:42:29.199 --> 00:42:36.360 But you know, Sonahu, whatever you may say is after escalation and and 526 00:42:36.400 --> 00:42:43.239 there's something else you know this remember I talked about the Hannibal directive last episode 527 00:42:43.360 --> 00:42:46.199 or two episodes ago. You know, there's these these things going on, 528 00:42:46.679 --> 00:42:52.800 things going on within the military. That suggests that, you know, brigade 529 00:42:52.840 --> 00:42:58.599 and battalion commanders are making their own decisions on rules of engagement. In fact, 530 00:42:58.639 --> 00:43:04.360 that is the overwhelming feedback I'm getting. You know, I spoke to 531 00:43:04.480 --> 00:43:07.800 one battalion that moved in, you know, moved up north on the seventh 532 00:43:08.159 --> 00:43:13.480 October, and they were weapons tight, you know, usual rules of engagement. 533 00:43:13.519 --> 00:43:16.679 And another battalion moved in after them, and they they were reconnaissance by 534 00:43:16.719 --> 00:43:20.760 fire. They were you know, they were every morning and every evening. 535 00:43:20.760 --> 00:43:22.960 They would fire the morning and evening hate as it used to be called in 536 00:43:23.000 --> 00:43:27.239 the First World War, into the villages on the Lebanese side, and that 537 00:43:27.400 --> 00:43:30.400 was sanctioned by their commanders, you know. And this is within the same 538 00:43:30.480 --> 00:43:35.280 organization. There is no there doesn't appear to be any central rules of engagement. 539 00:43:35.400 --> 00:43:45.599 So the Hannibal doctrine was directive, was an official thing that authorized it's 540 00:43:45.679 --> 00:43:51.119 really soldiers to risk the lives of hostages in order to free them. In 541 00:43:51.159 --> 00:43:53.280 other words, you know, knowing what lay in store for them, you 542 00:43:53.320 --> 00:43:57.000 could accept a higher level of risk. Okay, common sense, right. 543 00:43:57.920 --> 00:44:02.119 It has been interpreted apparently as me, you can kill hostages. Audio own 544 00:44:02.199 --> 00:44:07.840 soldiers to prevent them being kept health captives. Okay, and that was the 545 00:44:07.880 --> 00:44:13.199 Hannibal doctrine. There are incidents where soldiers are claiming that the Hannibal doctrine has 546 00:44:13.320 --> 00:44:19.599 been called by battalion brigade commanders and then just you know, I guess there's 547 00:44:19.639 --> 00:44:22.280 a lot of these code red type things. There's another thing called the Dahia 548 00:44:22.440 --> 00:44:28.480 Doctrine, which was formulated in the two thousand and six eleven and more apologies 549 00:44:28.519 --> 00:44:34.719 that here, so so its main tendid it is that disproportioned attacks, including 550 00:44:34.760 --> 00:44:39.280 against civilian structures and infrastructure, are authorized, you know, for it for 551 00:44:39.320 --> 00:44:45.800 achieving the end, and that that is may well be what's that play here? 552 00:44:45.000 --> 00:44:51.159 Right? Yeah, I don't know, I don't know how like you 553 00:44:51.199 --> 00:44:55.199 could be you could justify this more and more as like even the United States 554 00:44:55.280 --> 00:44:59.159 government, like it's like, dude, we I mean, there's only so 555 00:44:59.280 --> 00:45:02.239 much we could do, right, And it's not even dividing the world. 556 00:45:02.519 --> 00:45:07.360 I mean, the world's pretty much on one side of this for the most 557 00:45:07.400 --> 00:45:09.280 part. You know, I think you know, in terms of states, 558 00:45:09.280 --> 00:45:14.199 you know, like countries, you know that everyone's pretty much saying, hey, 559 00:45:14.239 --> 00:45:16.719 guys, let's chill out a little bit and go back to what you're 560 00:45:16.760 --> 00:45:22.960 good at, which is assassinating top level people, the odd nuclear scientists, 561 00:45:22.960 --> 00:45:24.480 you know what I mean, Like, let's just do that. Yeah. 562 00:45:24.559 --> 00:45:30.480 You know Netna, who actually has not been a Hawk in the past. 563 00:45:30.559 --> 00:45:35.800 He's he's a little like he's gonna love this analogy in Israela in the sense 564 00:45:35.840 --> 00:45:38.920 he knows how to walk the line right, you know, get everyone fired 565 00:45:39.079 --> 00:45:45.079 up, but avoid because he knows he's a survivalist. He knows that in 566 00:45:45.239 --> 00:45:51.519 trench conflicts like Lebanon lead to the end of careers. And I mean his 567 00:45:51.599 --> 00:45:55.639 career is undoubtedly over. The question is when, and he wants his perhaps 568 00:45:55.960 --> 00:46:00.920 he wants his career to end the other side of a war a major wall, 569 00:46:00.079 --> 00:46:04.480 because that it will extend, you know, that's the argument against him. 570 00:46:04.960 --> 00:46:09.079 So it's no longer at that point longevity. It's legacy yeah yeah, 571 00:46:09.320 --> 00:46:15.079 or not even legacy prison, just preservation of power. Yeah. He's a 572 00:46:15.079 --> 00:46:21.400 political creature, you know, and he he cut his teeth in the talk 573 00:46:21.599 --> 00:46:28.719 in the uh reality not reality TV that you know, the talk show circuit 574 00:46:28.960 --> 00:46:34.760 here in the United States in the in the in the late seventies and eighties, 575 00:46:35.000 --> 00:46:38.000 that's what made him. Wow. Yeah, I mean legacy hunting or 576 00:46:38.039 --> 00:46:46.599 political preservation at the expense of tens of thousands civilians and uh even Israeli soldiers, 577 00:46:46.639 --> 00:46:51.960 and you know, just human death and destruction kind of makes you fucking 578 00:46:52.039 --> 00:46:55.400 evil in my opinion. That's completely my opinion. If you like bb Netanya 579 00:46:55.480 --> 00:47:02.360 who congratulations, I don't. I think he's a fucking rat. Yeah. 580 00:47:00.719 --> 00:47:06.840 I I I stay facts, you know, and I do express opinions, 581 00:47:06.880 --> 00:47:10.000 of course, otherwise I'd be very boring. But yeah, I am concerned. 582 00:47:10.159 --> 00:47:14.119 I'm concerned for is wrong, concerned for them, beliast, I'm concerned 583 00:47:14.159 --> 00:47:16.880 for the world. I'm very concerned for the United States most of all, 584 00:47:17.039 --> 00:47:23.000 obviously right now, and I think it's important for everyone everyone watching remember that 585 00:47:23.920 --> 00:47:29.920 never might I'm not even going to go down that village. So anyway, 586 00:47:30.000 --> 00:47:36.320 hey, hey, here's another thing on rules of engagement. Okay, that 587 00:47:36.320 --> 00:47:39.559 that wasn't you know, John Spencer didn't mention the Newsweek article. Do really 588 00:47:40.039 --> 00:47:45.039 go into every building shooting for the most part? All right, And that 589 00:47:45.199 --> 00:47:51.159 is you know, that's kind of the s op in Gaza. I'm not 590 00:47:51.239 --> 00:47:54.360 making a comment on right or wrong. I'm just saying you know that leads 591 00:47:54.559 --> 00:48:00.719 not just a huge enormous ammunition consumption, which they don't have a problem with 592 00:48:00.760 --> 00:48:04.840 when it comes to small arms, because you know, they obviously religioustics bylines. 593 00:48:05.320 --> 00:48:08.199 But but but two, you know that is something reconnaissance by fire, 594 00:48:08.239 --> 00:48:13.599 as it were, as something that we are never authorized to do in the 595 00:48:13.719 --> 00:48:17.639 US, or seldom authorized to do, certainly not in those environments. But 596 00:48:17.719 --> 00:48:23.639 that is that, you know. I look, frankly, most civilians, 597 00:48:24.159 --> 00:48:29.800 vast majority civilians are killed by artillery, you know, to kill fire sentence, 598 00:48:30.320 --> 00:48:35.679 relatively relatively few. Still, hundreds thousands probably killed by direct fire. 599 00:48:37.239 --> 00:48:39.679 But so so all of this, all of this is the problem. It's 600 00:48:39.719 --> 00:48:45.360 not particular prostigures. It's the kind of the underlying culture. I think. 601 00:48:45.400 --> 00:48:47.639 The best way to put this, I know I've brought us near and the 602 00:48:47.719 --> 00:48:52.039 end. No, that was perfect, No, I was I was great. 603 00:48:52.079 --> 00:48:54.440 I think I think it's tough. Man. I don't know, I 604 00:48:54.519 --> 00:49:01.480 don't know what we should say to ye. No, no, man, 605 00:49:01.679 --> 00:49:07.719 I'm you know me. I like to learn. So I had to sit 606 00:49:07.800 --> 00:49:10.119 back on this one and just listen and ask my little questions. And I 607 00:49:10.159 --> 00:49:15.000 appreciate it. That's what I do every episode, So, you know, 608 00:49:15.519 --> 00:49:19.480 just for those interested in how, you know, how the what the fighting 609 00:49:19.519 --> 00:49:23.039 looks like in Gaza, I mentioned the Israeli casualties being remarkably low. You 610 00:49:23.079 --> 00:49:28.480 know, it's in the two hundred and I think fifties in those sixties. 611 00:49:28.519 --> 00:49:32.760 And you know, six months of six months, I'm sorry, forty five 612 00:49:32.800 --> 00:49:38.679 months of fighting. That's extraordinarily low. And you know, one of the 613 00:49:39.000 --> 00:49:44.440 side we've talked about fires. But after they have plasted in an area, 614 00:49:44.519 --> 00:49:49.920 then they'll send in their special operations guys who will seize a foothold, kind 615 00:49:49.960 --> 00:49:55.679 of a bridgehead or you know, they're sending drones dogs first. Then they'll 616 00:49:55.719 --> 00:50:01.320 send us their special abrations forces to to hold a block, and only then 617 00:50:01.400 --> 00:50:07.119 will they send in their conventional forces. And then it's a very very slow 618 00:50:07.239 --> 00:50:12.960 movement. I've been told, you know, a couple hundred yards a day, 619 00:50:14.840 --> 00:50:19.320 So you see, it's a very cautious, very deliberate move that's probably 620 00:50:19.320 --> 00:50:22.639 how they're saving their own casualties. Ballpark, Andy, how many Hamas fighters 621 00:50:22.679 --> 00:50:27.239 are there, like actually fighting every day? Yeah, that's a good question, 622 00:50:27.360 --> 00:50:30.800 so as I haven't seen that anywhere. Yeah, so the Israeli say 623 00:50:30.840 --> 00:50:34.920 twenty to thirty thousand at the beginning. They say, Now, remember last 624 00:50:34.960 --> 00:50:38.119 week I said fourteen to fifteen thousand they're claiming killed. When you add out 625 00:50:38.159 --> 00:50:42.800 the battalions that they say they've killed, it's fourteen fifteen thousand guys. Looking 626 00:50:42.840 --> 00:50:47.559 at Hamas's order of battle. Now Israel's saying they've killed nine thousand Hermas operatives. 627 00:50:47.840 --> 00:50:53.039 Coincidentally, exactly the number of military age males killed reported dead. Right, 628 00:50:53.239 --> 00:50:59.639 so hard to tell, really hard to tell. No one can, 629 00:50:59.840 --> 00:51:02.159 No one can tell you how many battalions are left in Rafa. Anyone who 630 00:51:02.199 --> 00:51:06.840 says they can is full of shit. I mean, even if we had 631 00:51:06.840 --> 00:51:09.280 the best intel in the wall. You know, you're talking about small groups 632 00:51:09.320 --> 00:51:15.239 of guys and all the engagements. There are small groups, you know, 633 00:51:15.320 --> 00:51:22.239 running around through tunnels in a densely, densely populated area. How can you 634 00:51:22.559 --> 00:51:29.079 possibly make a coherent estimate of how many people are there? I mean, 635 00:51:29.119 --> 00:51:34.559 how many fighters are that all alone form them into battalions. It's it's ridiculously 636 00:51:35.119 --> 00:51:40.360 unrealistic. And as I've mentioned, even if you ignore the figures are Western 637 00:51:40.440 --> 00:51:45.199 intelligence reports, the UK in particular. I don't want to burn him, 638 00:51:45.199 --> 00:51:52.199 but he's he's particularly well positioned to know about this is saying that Israeli reports 639 00:51:52.199 --> 00:52:00.599 of Hamas casualties are very much over the mark. So there's very few silver 640 00:52:00.679 --> 00:52:05.679 linings. As we talked about, even if hermask was completely obliterated, there 641 00:52:05.679 --> 00:52:10.280 are thousands and thousands of kids who have seen their families right. There is 642 00:52:10.320 --> 00:52:14.760 no endgame here. Let's know, would you be happy the rest of your 643 00:52:14.800 --> 00:52:21.159 life in your family? I mean just fucking go up and smoke. Would 644 00:52:21.199 --> 00:52:23.239 you say, yeah, hey, oh I want to be secular and democratic? 645 00:52:23.400 --> 00:52:27.320 Oh yeah, that's what I want to do. If revenge is the 646 00:52:27.360 --> 00:52:30.760 one thing that life offered you, that's what you would do. And anyone 647 00:52:30.840 --> 00:52:35.559 you know out there who thinks they're different, I would love to hear from 648 00:52:35.599 --> 00:52:40.679 them. Yeah. It's like a zenous person in the fucking world. All 649 00:52:40.760 --> 00:52:45.280 right. That's on that happy note. On that happy note. Soon, 650 00:52:45.440 --> 00:52:49.320 probably not next week, because something exciting will show up soon. We're going 651 00:52:49.360 --> 00:52:53.559 to talk about Taiwan guys. And this is the opportunity for Dee to say 652 00:52:54.239 --> 00:53:02.079 what was the phrase, uh, non consensual unification, which is it's my 653 00:53:02.119 --> 00:53:07.480 favorite favorite movies weners. But I know it's gonna be a serious comment. 654 00:53:07.559 --> 00:53:09.920 I just wanted to get that out of the way. Yeah, all right, 655 00:53:10.400 --> 00:53:15.599 all right, don't forget to like and subscribe if you're listening to us 656 00:53:15.639 --> 00:53:19.679 on Audio rate and review at five stars. Check out Andy's book, check 657 00:53:19.679 --> 00:53:22.480 out Andy's Twitter. All the links will be in a description below. Patreon 658 00:53:22.679 --> 00:53:27.920 dot com slash the Teamhouse is the best way to support these shows. You 659 00:53:27.960 --> 00:53:30.960 get ad free audio, you could ask questions if you have any, even 660 00:53:31.000 --> 00:53:35.559 to eyes on. We will get to them, I promise you. And 661 00:53:35.719 --> 00:53:38.920 it's just the best way to support the show because YouTube is not awesome right 662 00:53:38.920 --> 00:53:42.519 now. Thank you, thanks guys. Yeah, totally