1 00:00:05,280 --> 00:00:10,640 We are back with our friend Zach Abraham, chief investment officer at Bulwark Capital 2 00:00:10,720 --> 00:00:14,240 Management, and Zach is always great at kind of giving us the rundown of 3 00:00:14,279 --> 00:00:18,640 what's going on in the markets in the world of finance and helping us kind 4 00:00:18,679 --> 00:00:24,280 of prepare and plan best for our future retirements and just kind of knowing what's 5 00:00:24,280 --> 00:00:28,399 going on. So, Zach, what is up right now? You know? 6 00:00:28,800 --> 00:00:32,119 It's it's uh. We were kind of talking about this off air, 7 00:00:32,159 --> 00:00:39,520 and it's probably more interesting to me than it is to most people what I 8 00:00:39,560 --> 00:00:45,920 do for a living, right but what you're seeing right now is really to 9 00:00:46,000 --> 00:00:48,640 me it's fascinating. Meaning, you know, I think there's a lot of 10 00:00:48,640 --> 00:00:52,039 people out there that realize the market's gone up. When stock markets up sixteen 11 00:00:52,039 --> 00:00:56,399 a half percent or something like that. This year, we've done we've done 12 00:00:56,399 --> 00:01:02,079 some homework on it, and what you're seeing right now legitimately has never occurred 13 00:01:02,119 --> 00:01:06,120 before. Okay, So when I say that, what am I talking about? 14 00:01:06,840 --> 00:01:08,799 In over a six month period of time, you have never seen a 15 00:01:08,879 --> 00:01:15,840 stock market rally of double digits like this in an environment where earnings and profits 16 00:01:15,920 --> 00:01:19,840 or earnings and revenues are going down. So profit and revenue is going down 17 00:01:19,319 --> 00:01:23,400 across the SMP five hundred at the same time interest rates are going up. 18 00:01:23,959 --> 00:01:27,719 So and people are like, well, you know, they're not as fascinated 19 00:01:27,760 --> 00:01:30,480 by that as I. What do you mean, why does that such? 20 00:01:30,560 --> 00:01:36,719 We deal? Well, the interest rate issue particularly is fascinating because when interest 21 00:01:36,840 --> 00:01:41,040 rates go up, it's not that I think stocks shouldn't be going up with 22 00:01:41,079 --> 00:01:45,480 them, But when interest rates go up, stocks are worthless. Right, 23 00:01:45,519 --> 00:01:49,920 So it's called discounting, right, So it's how we value assets. So, 24 00:01:49,000 --> 00:01:53,280 for instance, let's say I can make one and a half percent owning 25 00:01:53,280 --> 00:01:57,319 a ten year US government bond, right, one and a half percent. 26 00:01:57,640 --> 00:02:02,200 It doesn't tell you what's stocks should be worth, but bottom line is at 27 00:02:02,239 --> 00:02:07,920 one and a half percent the ten year US treasury means that stocks should probably 28 00:02:07,959 --> 00:02:12,240 be higher than normal. Okay, because we've got to discount an asset, 29 00:02:12,360 --> 00:02:15,719 right. No asset lives in a vacuum. We're trying to value an asset. 30 00:02:15,800 --> 00:02:19,680 It's always compared to what right we gotta give. We gotta have context, 31 00:02:20,000 --> 00:02:23,360 and discounting is something that we use in the world of finance to try 32 00:02:23,360 --> 00:02:29,280 to give us relative value or to value an asset. Right, And the 33 00:02:29,319 --> 00:02:32,159 most widely used instrument in the world to discount is the ten year US treasury. 34 00:02:34,000 --> 00:02:37,039 Well, when the ten year US Treasury goes from one and a half 35 00:02:37,080 --> 00:02:40,319 to four, I'm not telling you how much stock should go down, but 36 00:02:40,360 --> 00:02:46,080 they shouldn't go up, right, right, because it literally I just think 37 00:02:46,120 --> 00:02:50,080 about it, like, if I'm willing to take x amount of risk when 38 00:02:50,080 --> 00:02:53,840 the ten year treasury is paying one and a half, the bottom line is 39 00:02:53,840 --> 00:02:57,080 is that I should be I should be willing to take substantially less risk when 40 00:02:57,080 --> 00:03:00,639 it's paying four. That makes sense, right, think. So in other 41 00:03:00,719 --> 00:03:04,479 words, let's think of it like this. So let's say we're going to 42 00:03:04,560 --> 00:03:07,719 buy a company. Okay, let's not think about stock, but let's say 43 00:03:07,719 --> 00:03:10,919 we're gonna buy a company, and we as investors get paid by profits. 44 00:03:12,000 --> 00:03:15,800 Right, Revenue doesn't pay us. We've gotta have profit. So let's say 45 00:03:15,840 --> 00:03:20,080 that company, whatever we pay, Let's say we buy it for a billion 46 00:03:20,120 --> 00:03:23,199 dollars and it turns out eighty million dollars a profit a year. That's an 47 00:03:23,199 --> 00:03:28,280 eight percent net return. Right now, owning a company, there's a lot 48 00:03:28,280 --> 00:03:30,080 of risks that come with owning a company, right, So we're sitting there 49 00:03:30,080 --> 00:03:34,960 trying to determine whether this is a good deal or not. So what do 50 00:03:35,080 --> 00:03:37,520 we know. We know that there's all these different risks involved and own a 51 00:03:37,560 --> 00:03:40,280 company. We've got to deal with employees's got to deal with wages and taxes 52 00:03:40,319 --> 00:03:44,360 and the economy and all that other kind of stuff. So we're gonna get 53 00:03:44,360 --> 00:03:47,800 an eight percent net return on our capitol. If I can take zero risk 54 00:03:49,599 --> 00:03:53,039 and get five percent, that may make that eight percent not worth it? 55 00:03:53,719 --> 00:03:57,280 Right? Like it? Because you're like, there's a risk premium in there. 56 00:03:57,319 --> 00:04:00,080 I'm taking zero risk making five. Now I'm sking a lot more capital 57 00:04:00,080 --> 00:04:04,159 to make eight, right me? Where's that break even? And and it's 58 00:04:04,199 --> 00:04:09,120 always a little bit fungible. My point is this, when the ten year 59 00:04:09,159 --> 00:04:13,759 treasury is paying one point five that eight percents a lot more attractive. When 60 00:04:13,759 --> 00:04:16,879 it's paying four, that eight percent is a lot less attractive. Okay, 61 00:04:17,120 --> 00:04:23,600 Now, what's insane is that we've seen the largest and fastest interest rate hike 62 00:04:23,639 --> 00:04:26,680 in history, and what are stocks doing. They're going right up with it, 63 00:04:27,279 --> 00:04:30,279 right, So it's not a thing where we're sitting there going, hey, 64 00:04:30,439 --> 00:04:31,439 we think something bad is going to happen. We think you should be 65 00:04:31,519 --> 00:04:36,720 cut, we think you should be careful lookout for stocks. It's that on 66 00:04:36,800 --> 00:04:42,439 a financial analysis basis, stocks are worth less than they were at the beginning 67 00:04:42,480 --> 00:04:45,600 of the year. Why because interest rates are higher? Period Now, we 68 00:04:45,600 --> 00:04:47,920 don't even need to bring in the economic weakness we're singing in the slowdown and 69 00:04:48,000 --> 00:04:51,279 what it looks like just rolling right into a recession. I'm not I'm not 70 00:04:51,439 --> 00:04:56,439 really having to go there. I'm just saying interest rates and stocks should not 71 00:04:56,480 --> 00:05:01,519 be going up at the same time, specifically when the earnings and profit on 72 00:05:01,600 --> 00:05:05,160 those stocks are dropping too. So why, why, why, why why 73 00:05:05,279 --> 00:05:12,839 is this happening? Why? Okay, so that's a great question. He's 74 00:05:12,879 --> 00:05:15,879 like, let me happen here, right right, This is a this is 75 00:05:15,920 --> 00:05:23,560 a vodka, gatorade? Right, So why do people why why why do 76 00:05:23,560 --> 00:05:27,639 people think men can have babies? You know what? So everything is just 77 00:05:27,680 --> 00:05:31,199 fake, like there's nothing real in our world anymore, everything including the world 78 00:05:31,240 --> 00:05:34,000 of find Yeah, I mean sort of in the market. The one thing 79 00:05:34,040 --> 00:05:39,519 I will say is that I do think that there are some reasons why this 80 00:05:39,600 --> 00:05:43,360 is happening. A I think we have to remember that, first of all, 81 00:05:43,519 --> 00:05:47,560 in every stock market crash or in every recessionary market fall, you have 82 00:05:47,600 --> 00:05:54,000 what we call bear market rallies, so meaning everybody thinks there's always moments where 83 00:05:54,000 --> 00:05:56,480 you have false stalls and everybody's like, oh, the worst is over. 84 00:05:56,519 --> 00:06:00,279 You gotta get back in. Market rallies retraces a big piece of what it 85 00:06:00,360 --> 00:06:03,439 lost. It builds false hope, right, it sucks everybody back in and 86 00:06:03,480 --> 00:06:08,199 then rolls over again. That's a feature of every single recessionary market of all 87 00:06:08,240 --> 00:06:12,439 time. Okay, this one is especially poignant though, or this one's especial. 88 00:06:12,639 --> 00:06:15,839 I think one of the reasons this one's bigger is due to the fact 89 00:06:15,839 --> 00:06:18,839 that this has been the longest bull market cycle in US history. Right, 90 00:06:18,879 --> 00:06:24,839 We've gone fifteen years without a recession. Effectively, we've gone fifteen years without 91 00:06:24,839 --> 00:06:29,600 the market not having we had one down year, right in the last fifteen 92 00:06:29,639 --> 00:06:31,360 years, and the market was down six percent in that one year. It 93 00:06:31,399 --> 00:06:36,160 was twenty eighteen. Okay, so you've got entire you've got you've got pur 94 00:06:36,279 --> 00:06:42,439 portfolio managers who are seasoned veterans now who have never seen a down market. 95 00:06:42,920 --> 00:06:46,120 And whatever they've seen for fifteen years, they saw by the dip right by 96 00:06:46,160 --> 00:06:49,759 the dippentech, especially by the by the dipping tech at any cost, don't 97 00:06:49,759 --> 00:06:54,000 pay attention to fundamentals, don't pay attention to earnings. Is by the dippingentech. 98 00:06:54,360 --> 00:06:56,959 And when you build that muscle up for fifteen years, you know, 99 00:06:57,000 --> 00:07:00,399 I think it's a lot longer time. We just say it flippingly fifty years. 100 00:07:00,759 --> 00:07:04,160 Yeah, that's twenty percent of the average lifespan, right, So I 101 00:07:04,199 --> 00:07:09,399 think that that's one of the biggest reasons, just the muscle memory that's been 102 00:07:09,399 --> 00:07:12,439 built up over the last fifteen years, it's a big part to play in 103 00:07:12,480 --> 00:07:15,040 it. The other part is this, we live in a different economy, 104 00:07:15,040 --> 00:07:18,959 in a different society now post eight o nine. Meaning if you look at 105 00:07:19,000 --> 00:07:23,120 the economy, and I'm not trying to be hyperbolic, I'm just if you 106 00:07:23,160 --> 00:07:27,000 look at the economic backdrop, and if you told me that there was going 107 00:07:27,040 --> 00:07:30,439 to be no FED intervention, right, so the central banks FED could no 108 00:07:30,519 --> 00:07:34,519 longer intervene, you could be looking at a depression, you could, right, 109 00:07:34,759 --> 00:07:40,959 the debt levels have gotten that lot. There's so many things so out 110 00:07:40,959 --> 00:07:45,560 of whack in the economy that you could potentially Now it's not going to happen 111 00:07:46,040 --> 00:07:47,959 because the FED will just print money and paper over it like they've been doing 112 00:07:48,120 --> 00:07:51,720 fifteen years. Right, So that's another thing, and that's kind of one 113 00:07:51,759 --> 00:07:57,079 of the things we're looking at. Maybe this isn't the stock market rallying with 114 00:07:57,240 --> 00:08:01,040 higher interest rates. I mean, that's what's happening. Maybe it's the stock 115 00:08:01,120 --> 00:08:05,199 market looking through the recession going we know the Fed's going to have to print 116 00:08:05,199 --> 00:08:07,959 again. So I don't think that's the case. I think this is just 117 00:08:07,000 --> 00:08:11,040 a classic bear market rally fueled by a lot of people thinking the Fed's going 118 00:08:11,079 --> 00:08:13,839 to bail them out, and so we should. So we should be looking 119 00:08:13,879 --> 00:08:16,199 at a depression, but we're not because the Feds are going to be bailing 120 00:08:16,199 --> 00:08:20,120 everybody out. Yeah. Well, I'm just saying if you look at the 121 00:08:20,120 --> 00:08:22,800 dead loads and factor in the interest rates, and you look at that, 122 00:08:24,120 --> 00:08:26,959 if you let this economy run and it had it had to deal with itself, 123 00:08:28,639 --> 00:08:31,279 you could be looking at depression in it scenarios. Okay, well, 124 00:08:31,840 --> 00:08:35,679 and you can do a certain So so here's a quick little, a quick 125 00:08:35,679 --> 00:08:41,200 little way to look at this. A colleague of mine is very well respected, 126 00:08:41,799 --> 00:08:46,360 did a study and went through and broke it down, and you if 127 00:08:46,440 --> 00:08:50,480 you had if interest rates stayed where they were right now, there's not a 128 00:08:50,519 --> 00:08:54,679 lot of refinancing a corporate death this year. But if interest rates stayed where 129 00:08:54,679 --> 00:08:58,159 they were last now right now, and you just let things go forward, 130 00:08:58,200 --> 00:09:03,320 and the FED didn't intervene and didn't buy down rates, and these guys had 131 00:09:03,360 --> 00:09:07,720 to go to market with the debt that they have and refinance at today's rates. 132 00:09:07,840 --> 00:09:13,720 Right now, someone like more than eighty five percent of American companies would 133 00:09:13,720 --> 00:09:18,159 be insolvent. That's bad. Wow, all of the banks would be insolvent. 134 00:09:20,200 --> 00:09:24,960 Oh my gosh. So and so I don't think people really understand like 135 00:09:24,720 --> 00:09:28,200 how far off track we are, right, That's why I say we don't 136 00:09:28,240 --> 00:09:31,879 live in a free economy anymore. Right, this is it. This is 137 00:09:31,879 --> 00:09:37,759 a planned, organized communist style economy. And whether whether or not that's what 138 00:09:37,799 --> 00:09:43,759 it is. Zach, Well, I've got good news, right, I'm 139 00:09:43,799 --> 00:09:50,080 the bers No, No, here is the upside. Okay, yes, 140 00:09:50,440 --> 00:09:54,799 we're not gonna see depression. It's not gonna happen. Why because if they 141 00:09:54,799 --> 00:09:56,759 have to either send ten thousand old checks to everybody like we've already seen them 142 00:09:56,759 --> 00:10:01,840 do it, right, that we have to pay that's coming now? You 143 00:10:01,960 --> 00:10:05,759 sound like an adult, right, We don't. We don't pay for Shame 144 00:10:05,799 --> 00:10:09,039 on me. Yeah, shame on, you come on, we live in 145 00:10:09,080 --> 00:10:11,919 the imaginary time. So what what has to happen to write the ship? 146 00:10:11,960 --> 00:10:16,960 And is it even possible? No, it's not possible or not at this 147 00:10:16,000 --> 00:10:18,679 point. The numbers have gotten Yeah, the numbers have gotten too large. 148 00:10:18,679 --> 00:10:24,519 So yeah, because John Carey's talking in quadrillions that the numbers have gotten away 149 00:10:24,559 --> 00:10:28,879 too Yeah, I know. And I can't even like around that number. 150 00:10:30,200 --> 00:10:33,120 Nobody I don't even understand. And that's one of the problems, right, 151 00:10:33,200 --> 00:10:35,840 that's one of the problems when we start talking even about billions, right, 152 00:10:35,919 --> 00:10:39,879 let alone you get two trillions. No, nobody hasn't we say the word 153 00:10:39,919 --> 00:10:43,519 but if you stack a true what is it? I want to say, 154 00:10:43,559 --> 00:10:48,080 if you stack a trillion dollars on top of themselves? Again, do not 155 00:10:48,240 --> 00:10:50,480 quote me, but I want to say, it's like thirty two thousand miles. 156 00:10:50,519 --> 00:10:54,879 Yeah, it's insane, right, Just stack the dollar bills like they 157 00:10:54,120 --> 00:10:58,360 thirty two thousand miles and maybe it's sixty I don't know. It's some insane 158 00:10:58,440 --> 00:11:03,720 number, right, or some insane distance. And you're looking at a country. 159 00:11:03,759 --> 00:11:07,639 Now there's what are we thirty three thirty four trillion dollars in debt then 160 00:11:07,879 --> 00:11:11,080 yeah, and then that debt is a little bit different than regular debt. 161 00:11:11,159 --> 00:11:16,919 And and I sound like I'm splitting hairs here, but it's also the corporate 162 00:11:16,960 --> 00:11:18,840 debt when you look at the amount of money, not this government zone, 163 00:11:18,879 --> 00:11:22,919 but the corporation zone and individual zone. If you had to, if everybody 164 00:11:24,120 --> 00:11:26,039 like you see yet, are you guys suplited with what's happening in corporate office 165 00:11:26,080 --> 00:11:31,360 space right now? Because they can't they can't rent it out because everybody's working 166 00:11:31,360 --> 00:11:33,919 at home, and then they have to refy it. Remember, corporate office 167 00:11:33,919 --> 00:11:41,200 space is financed typically on five year terms, right, So basically every year, 168 00:11:41,360 --> 00:11:45,240 twenty percent of the inventory is coming up for refine. Right, So 169 00:11:45,600 --> 00:11:50,440 when they refly, after they refi at these rates at all of it's insolvent 170 00:11:50,440 --> 00:11:52,480 when they factor in the lower rent rates and all that other kind of stuff. 171 00:11:52,559 --> 00:11:56,600 Right. So, literally there are buildings coming up for refinance that are 172 00:11:56,679 --> 00:12:01,879 literally getting sold for fifty sixty seventy percent discounts to what they were previously connanced. 173 00:12:01,879 --> 00:12:05,639 Ow. Wow, it's insane why there's still office buildings going up, 174 00:12:05,840 --> 00:12:09,840 at least in my town. I continue to see the construction and they're building 175 00:12:09,840 --> 00:12:13,919 them. We have enough. What are you doing? Well, it's what 176 00:12:15,039 --> 00:12:18,200 you think sun costs, right, Like, so now a lot of them 177 00:12:18,240 --> 00:12:22,000 have shut down, a lot of building operations have shut down. I've got 178 00:12:22,000 --> 00:12:24,840 a buddy that is like the superintendent for a large home builder, and he's 179 00:12:24,840 --> 00:12:30,159 telling me the biggest thing that's happening right now in home building is other builders 180 00:12:30,559 --> 00:12:35,600 trying to purchase partially finished deals off of other builders. And the reason they've 181 00:12:35,600 --> 00:12:37,480 got to buy them off the other builders is the other builders can't get them 182 00:12:37,519 --> 00:12:41,879 financed, right, So the financing is just locked up. And that's why 183 00:12:41,960 --> 00:12:45,840 when we have this, are we going into recession debate? I'm just like, 184 00:12:46,840 --> 00:12:50,679 come on, like yes, And I can't tell you when it will 185 00:12:50,679 --> 00:12:54,600 officially start. My guess is third or fourth quarter of this year. Like 186 00:12:54,639 --> 00:12:58,480 I think it's happening right now. But it's just a matter of credit contraction, 187 00:12:58,559 --> 00:13:00,759 right when you get a step, when you get into economy that's this 188 00:13:00,919 --> 00:13:05,559 levered debt has to continue to grow for the economy to grow, right if 189 00:13:05,639 --> 00:13:09,399 debt growth stops, right because it's so big, Right when did debt gets 190 00:13:09,440 --> 00:13:13,320 so big that you have to continue to grow the stack in order to keep 191 00:13:13,320 --> 00:13:18,720 forward progress and the debt right now is contracting and we see that, you 192 00:13:18,759 --> 00:13:22,559 know, across the all different walks of life. I mean, you know, 193 00:13:22,840 --> 00:13:24,840 you go talk to anybody trying to buy a house right now, it's 194 00:13:24,840 --> 00:13:28,799 see differently harder to get alone, go talk to you know, people that 195 00:13:28,840 --> 00:13:31,600 own corporate office space. So it's pretty wild. In the sensor, you're 196 00:13:31,639 --> 00:13:33,799 looking at a backdrop. You're like, you know, if we were left 197 00:13:33,799 --> 00:13:37,639 on our own here, this would be flat out a depression and we'll just 198 00:13:37,679 --> 00:13:41,279 print our way through it, you know, because we don't believe in recessions 199 00:13:41,279 --> 00:13:45,200 anymore. So is it possible that next week there might be something like lighter, 200 00:13:45,399 --> 00:13:50,960 like better news. Is it possible that we could have a discussion or 201 00:13:50,000 --> 00:13:54,399 in two weeks rather about I mean, is there anything that we can look 202 00:13:54,440 --> 00:13:56,600 at that's like a light at the end of the tunnel, or just some 203 00:13:56,720 --> 00:14:03,120 kind of hope anything hopeful? I mean, I think artificial intelligence is going 204 00:14:03,159 --> 00:14:05,360 to be a big deal. It's going to make a big difference. But 205 00:14:05,440 --> 00:14:11,200 economically speaking, no, I think unfortunately, you know, as a society, 206 00:14:11,200 --> 00:14:13,799 and I think you guys will see this politically like, as a society, 207 00:14:13,840 --> 00:14:16,759 I feel like we're a bunch of strung out on sugar kids that are 208 00:14:16,799 --> 00:14:18,879 just like, we want more, you know, just keep it going. 209 00:14:20,240 --> 00:14:24,120 I just think now is the time to pay the piper. And I don't 210 00:14:24,120 --> 00:14:26,200 think anybody wants to. I think the Fed wants to push it off. 211 00:14:26,240 --> 00:14:28,200 I think the government wants to push it off. But you're just kind of 212 00:14:28,200 --> 00:14:31,720 looking around. And that's the crazy thing about watching the stock market rally, 213 00:14:33,200 --> 00:14:37,279 Like the stuff that is rallying the hardest are the companies who are losing the 214 00:14:37,320 --> 00:14:41,720 most money. It's unbelievable. It's unbelievable. And you look at some of 215 00:14:41,720 --> 00:14:46,000 these companies like Apple set a new all time high this year on the back 216 00:14:46,080 --> 00:14:50,840 of two consecutive quarters of declining revenues, profits, and margins, and they 217 00:14:50,879 --> 00:14:54,679 set a new all time high compared to when interest rates were at zero eighteen 218 00:14:54,720 --> 00:15:00,360 months ago. So you're sitting there going, I don't their stock isn't more 219 00:15:00,480 --> 00:15:03,200 interest rates have gone up. You have to discount that into the price. 220 00:15:03,559 --> 00:15:09,000 Market disagrees. So yeah, no, it doesn't look good. I mean 221 00:15:09,039 --> 00:15:11,000 nothing looks good, not at these levels. And again I will still say 222 00:15:11,000 --> 00:15:18,120 that, you know, I'm not predicting impending economic doom. Unfortunately, I 223 00:15:18,159 --> 00:15:20,159 don't think we're going to have that, And you go, Unfortunately, why 224 00:15:20,159 --> 00:15:24,440 would you say that, Because the longer we're off of reality, the worst 225 00:15:24,440 --> 00:15:28,960 it gets, right, and we'll just content, Yeah, which is we're 226 00:15:28,000 --> 00:15:35,480 relying on this communist economy, which is like, and so where it ends 227 00:15:35,679 --> 00:15:39,480 is inflation, Like, that's where it will end up, right, This 228 00:15:39,519 --> 00:15:43,759 will not end with a people like think of we in America think of worst 229 00:15:43,799 --> 00:15:46,960 case economic outcomes as things dropping in price. Right. Well, we've gotten 230 00:15:46,960 --> 00:15:50,559 to taste of a little bit in the last eighteen months. Is there's something 231 00:15:50,559 --> 00:15:54,480 worse than that. Right. There's a benefit to deflation and depression, and 232 00:15:54,519 --> 00:15:56,639 that is things drop in price. Right. There's a lot of bad things 233 00:15:56,639 --> 00:16:00,200 that come with it too, right, And so we're all you to, 234 00:16:00,240 --> 00:16:03,600 oh, well, prices up are good. No, the end of every 235 00:16:03,600 --> 00:16:07,519 economy is inflationary, not deflationary. Right, So the way every economy fails 236 00:16:07,679 --> 00:16:11,840 is through currency devaluation, not the other way around. And I think we 237 00:16:11,919 --> 00:16:18,039 have started that long path again. I don't think anything there's a lot of 238 00:16:18,799 --> 00:16:21,320 Virtually every other country in the world isn't a worse place than we are. 239 00:16:21,639 --> 00:16:23,200 But the reality is what it is. When you get one hundred and fifty 240 00:16:23,200 --> 00:16:26,159 percent debt to GDP. You don't come back from that, no country ever 241 00:16:26,240 --> 00:16:33,200 has, so you're, by definition, you're starting the terminal decline. Okay, 242 00:16:33,360 --> 00:16:37,559 So other than that, Missus Lincoln, how was the play right? 243 00:16:40,799 --> 00:16:45,279 Everybody? Well, you know what we can say about you, Zach is 244 00:16:45,320 --> 00:16:48,840 that we always learn a lot, and so at least we know we appreciate 245 00:16:48,840 --> 00:16:51,320 that, even when the news isn't great, we do appreciate it. Zach. 246 00:16:51,360 --> 00:16:53,360 Of course, you are the chief investment officer at Capital Management. Where 247 00:16:53,440 --> 00:16:57,200 else can people find more information about you and how you might be able to 248 00:16:57,200 --> 00:17:03,000 help them through all of this crap? Could you give it to people straight? 249 00:17:03,160 --> 00:17:07,160 You give it to people straight, that's for sure. Nothing else will 250 00:17:07,160 --> 00:17:10,160 give it to you. A stradio, that's right. The best way to 251 00:17:10,200 --> 00:17:14,599 get us is Know your Risk Radio dot com Bullward Capital Management dot com. 252 00:17:14,839 --> 00:17:17,640 We also do a radio show that there's once a week and you can find 253 00:17:17,680 --> 00:17:22,599 that just google Know your Risk Radio podcast or just type it into you know 254 00:17:22,839 --> 00:17:26,240 iTunes or whatever podcasts you have. You'll find us. Know your Risk Radio 255 00:17:26,279 --> 00:17:29,559 will pop right up and yeah, not too hard to find. That's the 256 00:17:29,640 --> 00:17:37,640 US. Thank you so much, appreciate it. Awesome investment advisory services offered 257 00:17:37,640 --> 00:17:41,920 through Trek Financial LLC, n SEC registered Investment Advisor. Information presentatives for educational 258 00:17:41,960 --> 00:17:45,960 purposes only. It should not be considered specific investment advice, does not taken 259 00:17:45,960 --> 00:17:48,000 to consideration your specific situation, and does not intend to make an offer or 260 00:17:48,039 --> 00:17:52,880 solicitation for the sail or purchase of any securities or investment strategies. Investments involve 261 00:17:52,960 --> 00:17:56,039 risk and are not guaranteed, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. 262 00:17:56,039 --> 00:17:59,400 For specific tax advice on strategy, consoled with the qualified tax professional before 263 00:17:59,400 --> 00:18:00,079 implementing any strategy discussed herein