1 00:00:00,040 --> 00:00:03,720 We're trying to see if it is indeed possible to taper a Kanzi scheme, 2 00:00:03,759 --> 00:00:06,639 and we know it's not. You know, so this will blow up if 3 00:00:06,639 --> 00:00:10,919 they keep trying to shrink the money supply and there's nothing on the horizon that 4 00:00:11,039 --> 00:00:14,000 makes it look like they're going to do anything different than they have for the 5 00:00:14,039 --> 00:00:18,920 past year. You are listening to Carrie Letts's Financial Survival Network, where you 6 00:00:18,960 --> 00:00:24,320 get valuable information. You just can't find anywhere else to thrive in today's trying 7 00:00:24,359 --> 00:00:29,879 times. You need the Financial Survival Network now more than ever. Go to 8 00:00:30,039 --> 00:00:36,159 Financial Survival Network dot com and get your free newsletter in gift. Financial Survival 9 00:00:36,240 --> 00:00:45,600 Network now more than ever. Welcome you are listening to watching the Financial Survival 10 00:00:45,679 --> 00:00:49,200 Network. I'm your host, Carrie lets Well. John Robino is with us. 11 00:00:49,640 --> 00:00:54,880 We have a lot of great news. John. We've got the seems 12 00:00:54,920 --> 00:01:00,479 like it's the annual debt ceiling Kabuki dance. I sent you a thing about 13 00:01:00,520 --> 00:01:06,319 where kabuki, that term applying to politics came from, and it was actually 14 00:01:06,439 --> 00:01:11,200 started during JFK and he had all those eggheads. They called them the intellectuals 15 00:01:11,319 --> 00:01:15,640 running stuff, and they said that they were basically kabuki dance, a lot 16 00:01:15,640 --> 00:01:19,879 of noise, a lot of dancing, and nothing really happening. And that's 17 00:01:19,879 --> 00:01:23,640 what our debt dramas like, right every single time. Hey, Karen, 18 00:01:25,280 --> 00:01:26,599 Yeah, they've done this so many times. I think that the number is 19 00:01:26,640 --> 00:01:32,239 literally a hundred times that they've raised the debt sale eight seventy eight times. 20 00:01:32,799 --> 00:01:37,200 Okay, And you know there's always some drama beforehand, because that was the 21 00:01:37,359 --> 00:01:41,719 point of the law. It was to make it hard to increase the government's 22 00:01:41,760 --> 00:01:46,959 debt. But it's become impossible to cut government debt or even to stop the 23 00:01:47,640 --> 00:01:53,439 increase slowly increase. So now there's the law has just become this weird thing 24 00:01:53,560 --> 00:01:59,959 that it gives everybody a chance to posture over and then is basically just put 25 00:02:00,000 --> 00:02:04,159 shot the side and they do way with this year's limit or they raise this 26 00:02:04,239 --> 00:02:07,680 year's limit. And yeah, and just let me say, you know, 27 00:02:07,879 --> 00:02:13,360 the correct debt limit is zero or central governments. There should be no ten. 28 00:02:13,479 --> 00:02:16,960 There should be no such thing as government debt. But we're so far 29 00:02:16,960 --> 00:02:21,360 beyond that now that see, that's for the reset, that's that's for later 30 00:02:21,400 --> 00:02:25,000 when we've build something new out of the rubble of this system. Because there's 31 00:02:25,039 --> 00:02:30,840 no way in this system that government debt stops increasing or even slows down. 32 00:02:30,879 --> 00:02:36,479 It has to accelerate from here the various reasons. Yeah, not to mention 33 00:02:36,560 --> 00:02:42,680 that the our monetary system is our currency is a debt based currency. Every 34 00:02:42,719 --> 00:02:47,439 dollar in existence has been borrowed into existence, so you can't slow it down 35 00:02:47,479 --> 00:02:51,960 because once you have less dollars kicking around, nobody can afford to pay their 36 00:02:51,960 --> 00:02:54,719 debt like we're seeing now, and then bankruptcies come. But you can't have 37 00:02:54,800 --> 00:02:59,960 too much of the money creation, or then you have what we have now 38 00:02:59,639 --> 00:03:02,599 is huge inflation. In no way to put it back in the genie back 39 00:03:02,599 --> 00:03:06,520 in the bottle, right. In other words, it's a Ponzi scheme, 40 00:03:07,159 --> 00:03:13,680 and it needs new money to come in continuously and in an ever increasing stream 41 00:03:14,360 --> 00:03:17,000 in order to cover the bad things that have happened in the past, all 42 00:03:17,000 --> 00:03:22,680 the bad depths out there that will blow up unless there's new money to refinance 43 00:03:22,719 --> 00:03:25,759 that debt. And you know, at the same time that this is happening, 44 00:03:25,879 --> 00:03:30,599 we are decreasing the money supply. The M two money supply is now 45 00:03:31,000 --> 00:03:35,840 down over the past year, which it hasn't been for as far back as 46 00:03:35,840 --> 00:03:40,039 the chart goes. So we're trying to Ponzi or trying to taper a Ponzi 47 00:03:40,080 --> 00:03:44,479 scheme, which we can't do. So that's a you know, we're running 48 00:03:44,520 --> 00:03:47,439 experiments in every aspect of modern life right now, but this is a big 49 00:03:47,479 --> 00:03:52,280 one. We're trying to see if it is indeed possible to taper a Ponzi 50 00:03:52,319 --> 00:03:54,199 scheme, and we know it's not. You know, so this will blow 51 00:03:54,280 --> 00:03:58,960 up if they keep trying to shrink the money supply and there's nothing on the 52 00:03:59,039 --> 00:04:01,879 horizon. Look like they're going to do anything different than they have for the 53 00:04:01,879 --> 00:04:08,080 past year. Hey, And in a traditional Ponzi scheme, the people who 54 00:04:08,159 --> 00:04:13,599 cash in their chips earliest win because they get their profits and they get out. 55 00:04:14,240 --> 00:04:18,319 In this situation, I guess the people who who opted out of the 56 00:04:18,319 --> 00:04:23,360 Fiat based monetary system, they're going to be the winners. Well, that's 57 00:04:23,360 --> 00:04:25,560 what you want to do towards the end of a Ponzi scheme. You want 58 00:04:25,560 --> 00:04:28,199 to cash out and you want to put your money in a safe place. 59 00:04:28,240 --> 00:04:32,160 So the people who are well Bill Gates buying a million acres of farmland, 60 00:04:32,319 --> 00:04:35,839 that's one idea, you know, that's an idea, and all the stackers 61 00:04:35,879 --> 00:04:40,360 out there who are buying gold and silver coins. That's another idea. Those 62 00:04:40,399 --> 00:04:44,079 are ways of cashing out. Have a Ponzi scheme, and you know, 63 00:04:44,160 --> 00:04:46,439 you need to find your way whatever whatever it is that makes you comfortable. 64 00:04:47,680 --> 00:04:54,399 You need to move your dollars into those assets things that cannot be inflated away 65 00:04:55,199 --> 00:04:59,600 because the Ponzi scheme is going to collapse at some point because Dad has to 66 00:04:59,759 --> 00:05:04,920 in increase because the baby boomers are retiring yet for no other reason. You 67 00:05:04,959 --> 00:05:08,920 know, we've got this huge wave of people who are going to collect on 68 00:05:08,959 --> 00:05:15,399 Social Security and medicare new and basically John yeah, yeah, yeah, We're 69 00:05:15,399 --> 00:05:17,240 going to be incredibly expensive because you know, a lot of us didn't take 70 00:05:17,319 --> 00:05:20,639 very good care of ourselves. You did carry and I kind of between two, 71 00:05:21,120 --> 00:05:27,800 but the average boomer liver disease, heart disease, joy of replacements. 72 00:05:27,800 --> 00:05:32,959 It's going to be this litany of one hundred thousand dollars operations and treatments or 73 00:05:33,000 --> 00:05:35,639 as far as the eye can see, it's going to cost us a fortune 74 00:05:35,720 --> 00:05:41,839 which we are obligated to pay for, which means the government has to borrow 75 00:05:41,879 --> 00:05:44,920 more more money year after year. And that's in addition to all the other 76 00:05:44,959 --> 00:05:50,759 crazy stuff that the government's obligated to do. So government debt has to increase, 77 00:05:51,319 --> 00:05:57,519 which means the money supply has to increase at an equal or greater rate 78 00:05:58,160 --> 00:06:00,319 to keep the system from blowing out. And right now it's not. Right 79 00:06:00,319 --> 00:06:04,600 now, government debt is soaring while the money supply is shrinking. So um, 80 00:06:04,720 --> 00:06:08,560 we're headed for this brick wall, this financial brick wall out there, 81 00:06:08,800 --> 00:06:13,480 and it doesn't seem to be any way to avoid it because the FED cannot 82 00:06:13,480 --> 00:06:18,120 start cutting interest rates yet and the government can't slow down it's borrowing, So 83 00:06:18,319 --> 00:06:25,240 there's no real way to get the money supply growing again in any meaningful way. 84 00:06:25,839 --> 00:06:30,120 So you know, start looking for things to short. Well, that's 85 00:06:30,199 --> 00:06:33,120 of course, that's the other way to play a collapsing Ponzi scheme is you 86 00:06:33,160 --> 00:06:38,160 actively bet against it. You don't, you don't leave it um and take 87 00:06:38,199 --> 00:06:43,920 your take your assets and go somewhere else. You bet on the main ponsi 88 00:06:44,120 --> 00:06:47,079 assets going down. And that day is coming. I mean, I think 89 00:06:47,079 --> 00:06:50,360 it's actually a good time to be starting to short for sure. I've got 90 00:06:50,360 --> 00:06:57,600 some SMP five hundred and some um nastac shorts, which one of them is 91 00:06:57,639 --> 00:07:02,079 doing okay lately and the other one's not. And then I've got offers in 92 00:07:02,680 --> 00:07:10,040 to short the home builders, which ought to be one of the big casualties 93 00:07:10,120 --> 00:07:14,040 of a collapsing financial Ponzi scheme here, so we'll see you. But you 94 00:07:14,079 --> 00:07:19,040 would think that with house prices where they are right now, interest rates where 95 00:07:19,040 --> 00:07:23,639 they are right now, and the money supply shrinking, that the supply or 96 00:07:23,639 --> 00:07:28,720 the demand for new houses is going to shrink going forward, which will crush 97 00:07:28,759 --> 00:07:31,639 the home builders. We'll see. That's the thesis though, and and my 98 00:07:31,759 --> 00:07:36,000 offers haven't been taken yet, but that's what I'm trying to set up. 99 00:07:36,000 --> 00:07:40,600 That's the trade I'm going forward new Okay, do you know anything about leaps? 100 00:07:40,959 --> 00:07:47,839 Those are long term balls, so they're called like long term appreciations something 101 00:07:47,959 --> 00:07:50,800 or other. I can't remember what LEAP stands for. But you could go 102 00:07:50,959 --> 00:07:57,360 multi year, whereas your standard options are only good for you know, I 103 00:07:57,399 --> 00:08:01,160 mean, you could go years with options, but the far out options are 104 00:08:01,319 --> 00:08:05,720 very lightly trade yeah, not liquid. Yeah, that's what I normally do. 105 00:08:05,800 --> 00:08:09,079 But yeah, the illiquidity is an issue out there because sometimes the premiums 106 00:08:09,120 --> 00:08:11,600 get so crazy. I think when you've talked about this where I tried to 107 00:08:11,639 --> 00:08:18,279 short Tesla with long term options and Tesla did go down, but not enough 108 00:08:18,360 --> 00:08:22,959 to eat all the way through the gigantic premium on those options. So that's 109 00:08:22,959 --> 00:08:28,079 a thing to pay attention to. And I'm just trying to flat out short 110 00:08:28,160 --> 00:08:33,080 the housing the home builders just by selling the stocks without owning them. But 111 00:08:35,120 --> 00:08:37,440 that ties up a lot of cash, you know, you really you have 112 00:08:37,480 --> 00:08:43,919 to have enough in your account to cover you know, a wide range of 113 00:08:45,000 --> 00:08:50,000 resulting outcomes for something like that. With options, it's that's not an issue, 114 00:08:50,039 --> 00:08:52,000 but you got to pay a high premium, so the thing you're shorting 115 00:08:52,039 --> 00:08:56,200 has to drop quite a bit before the option really works for you. So 116 00:08:56,279 --> 00:09:01,240 nothing's perfect, but get it right and and you can make a ton of 117 00:09:01,279 --> 00:09:05,480 money, especially with options. You know, when when an option goes your 118 00:09:05,480 --> 00:09:09,000 way, a five bagger is a very easy outcome, and a ten bagger 119 00:09:09,039 --> 00:09:13,759 can happen easily. So um, you know, it just depends. You 120 00:09:13,799 --> 00:09:18,480 have to pay attention to what you're buying and the and the terms of the 121 00:09:18,559 --> 00:09:22,639 contract. But if you're right, you can make a lot of money shorting 122 00:09:22,679 --> 00:09:31,200 things. I think you could go do a inverse ETFs or for housing. 123 00:09:31,000 --> 00:09:37,480 Um, there's a bear real estate eat enough and but they are dangerous because 124 00:09:37,519 --> 00:09:41,840 they could be highly leveraged. The other thing you could do is sell options 125 00:09:43,279 --> 00:09:50,039 or buy puts on the on the Housing home Builders ETF which is h O 126 00:09:50,240 --> 00:09:54,840 MZ, so you could sell puts, you could buy puts on that. 127 00:09:54,240 --> 00:09:58,720 I should say yes, yeah. Now, the thing about those index etf 128 00:10:00,240 --> 00:10:03,200 is that there are options. Don't usually go out that for That's what I've 129 00:10:03,240 --> 00:10:05,679 noticed. I don't know if there's a rule, but you can get like 130 00:10:05,840 --> 00:10:09,039 one a one year option, one year put option on something like that, 131 00:10:09,080 --> 00:10:11,720 but you can't go out two and a half years. That's why leaps are 132 00:10:11,799 --> 00:10:16,879 so good. Yeah, because in two and a half years you better be 133 00:10:16,039 --> 00:10:22,120 right or else your thesis was completely a mistaken you know. And a leap 134 00:10:22,399 --> 00:10:28,519 is a leap is a long headed a second ago, a long term equity 135 00:10:28,639 --> 00:10:37,440 anticipation security as that for a or a name a leap. So you use 136 00:10:37,480 --> 00:10:43,120 the leaps and you could use less capital than purchasing the shares. Obviously that's 137 00:10:43,159 --> 00:10:48,879 the benefit of an option, and you get a lot more of the benefits 138 00:10:48,879 --> 00:10:52,639 of shorteness stock or owning it because they're long term. They could go out 139 00:10:52,679 --> 00:10:58,320 for years. Yeah. Yeah, so with an option, if you're right, 140 00:10:58,639 --> 00:11:01,000 you can be right very being. But if you're wrong, you lose 141 00:11:01,039 --> 00:11:05,039 everything you put into it. But you didn't put the full price of the 142 00:11:05,039 --> 00:11:07,600 stock into it, so your your total loss is limited in that way. 143 00:11:07,639 --> 00:11:11,360 But yeah, everything has their issues, you know, They've got their upsides 144 00:11:11,360 --> 00:11:16,600 and downsides, and you have to understand the instrument that you're using to short 145 00:11:18,519 --> 00:11:22,480 to know if it's a good deal. So there's a lot to think about. 146 00:11:24,440 --> 00:11:30,120 But you know, I had a formative experience doing this in the Great 147 00:11:30,159 --> 00:11:35,120 Recession when the housing bubble burst. I got that kind of adrenaline rush of 148 00:11:35,120 --> 00:11:41,120 a gambler who has a streak of luck happened, you know, and I 149 00:11:41,320 --> 00:11:45,320 want that back. I've been craving that feeling ever since. So I think, 150 00:11:45,519 --> 00:11:48,600 play, Yeah, I'm an addict. I'm maybe I need to take 151 00:11:48,639 --> 00:11:54,519 that drug you were talking about that his addictions. Yeah, let's let's talk 152 00:11:54,559 --> 00:12:00,559 about that. So this could be the antidote to consumerism because this drug, 153 00:12:00,639 --> 00:12:07,320 which you see it on TV a zempic weggathe, it's somaglatide, and what 154 00:12:07,840 --> 00:12:16,320 scientists doctors have been finding, well number one is that it basically makes you 155 00:12:16,360 --> 00:12:20,279 lose weight because it gets rid of your hunger on several different levels, but 156 00:12:20,440 --> 00:12:26,399 one of them is that it somehow rewires your pleasure center. So when you 157 00:12:26,000 --> 00:12:31,320 eat that chocolate or that ice cream, that dopamine hit is smaller, you 158 00:12:31,360 --> 00:12:33,200 don't get the dopamine, and then it's like, hey, if I can't 159 00:12:33,200 --> 00:12:37,960 get my dopamine, why bother. But what they found is it works with 160 00:12:37,000 --> 00:12:43,480 cigarettes with many people in addition to weight loss, drugs, alcohol, and 161 00:12:43,720 --> 00:12:52,200 shopoholicism. So this could be the death knell to Amazon, to luxury brands, 162 00:12:52,639 --> 00:12:58,120 to all of that. Right, and how much you want about that 163 00:12:58,399 --> 00:13:03,679 the people who edit it have an unfortunate plane crash or something pretty soon because 164 00:13:03,720 --> 00:13:05,759 the rest of big pharma is not going to be happy about this. Well, 165 00:13:05,759 --> 00:13:09,159 they'll come up with an antidote built us put to. They'll find a 166 00:13:09,519 --> 00:13:20,679 MR and a vaccine that stops stops these GLP one agonists from from cutting back 167 00:13:20,720 --> 00:13:24,879 on your urges for all the things that the society makes money off of your 168 00:13:24,879 --> 00:13:30,240 addictions from. Right, That's it's a great race, a weapons race. 169 00:13:30,639 --> 00:13:35,879 Oh, they're just manipulating us through every direction. Yeah, but you know 170 00:13:35,960 --> 00:13:39,879 that's that's the big fear of the pharmaceutical industry is a cure for things. 171 00:13:39,879 --> 00:13:45,600 You know, if somebody cured cancer today, um a trillion dollars of market 172 00:13:45,639 --> 00:13:52,519 cap would disappear from the a drug industry. Unemployment on the unemployment line, 173 00:13:54,320 --> 00:14:01,799 radiation technicians. I mean, the most profitable section of any hospital. I 174 00:14:01,879 --> 00:14:07,159 just read this recently is the oncology department. They make more money off a 175 00:14:07,240 --> 00:14:11,759 chemo than anything else in that hospital. This is what I read. If 176 00:14:11,799 --> 00:14:18,000 I'm wrong, I all stand corrected. Somebody corrected something and I mentioned it 177 00:14:18,039 --> 00:14:20,120 a few weeks ago. If I'm wrong, I want to know. But 178 00:14:20,240 --> 00:14:24,519 I believe this to be true. Well, and that's why they use chemo 179 00:14:24,759 --> 00:14:28,240 for every kind of cancer, even though it only works on a few kinds, 180 00:14:28,720 --> 00:14:33,720 because it's incredibly Yeah, it's expensive, it's high margin, and you 181 00:14:33,759 --> 00:14:37,960 can get away with throwing it at pretty much anything because there's no other treatment. 182 00:14:39,080 --> 00:14:43,919 So yeah, look, there's millions of people alive today because of chemotherapy. 183 00:14:45,360 --> 00:14:48,840 We don't want to poop poo it, but but just follow the money 184 00:14:50,200 --> 00:14:56,159 and understand that that has created incentives that we would prefer not be in place. 185 00:14:56,799 --> 00:15:03,559 Well, obesity might might be in that league monetarily because right now Big 186 00:15:03,639 --> 00:15:09,919 Food makes a fortune selling you know, pseudo foods to people that throws their 187 00:15:09,360 --> 00:15:13,440 metabolisms out of whack, that makes them incredibly fat. Then those people go 188 00:15:13,440 --> 00:15:16,799 to the doctor and instead of the doctor saying you need to lose one hundred 189 00:15:16,799 --> 00:15:22,000 pounds or don't even come back here, they just give them drug after drug 190 00:15:22,039 --> 00:15:26,440 after drug to manage the symptoms of obesity. Yeah. Yeah, So come 191 00:15:26,519 --> 00:15:31,759 up with a drug that cures obesity, and all of a sudden you've got 192 00:15:31,799 --> 00:15:37,480 big food, big pharma, and a big chunk of the rest of the 193 00:15:37,519 --> 00:15:41,840 healthcare profession in bad shape. Right now, you know, that would be 194 00:15:41,840 --> 00:15:46,919 a nice version of creative destruction, right you know, capitalism at work, 195 00:15:48,480 --> 00:15:52,200 at work in the best sense. It's putting a lot of bad actors out 196 00:15:52,279 --> 00:15:54,559 of out of business. You know, if you close down half the pharmaceutical 197 00:15:54,600 --> 00:15:58,639 industry and most of the food processors, you've done a really good thing for 198 00:15:58,639 --> 00:16:03,480 society besides saving mine. So yeah, but you can hope, yeah, 199 00:16:03,639 --> 00:16:10,600 John, if your food addiction comes from the same part of the brain as 200 00:16:10,759 --> 00:16:18,559 drugs, alcohol, cigarettes, and other things like shopoholism, whatever addictions. 201 00:16:18,600 --> 00:16:23,679 If all the addictions emanate from the same place, you know, and you 202 00:16:23,759 --> 00:16:29,879 have a drug that bum gets rid of. Just say it, Just say 203 00:16:29,919 --> 00:16:33,840 it makes your addictions manageable. Like you only spend two hundred dollars a month 204 00:16:33,879 --> 00:16:38,320 on Amazon instead of five hundred. This is like really bad. They can't 205 00:16:38,360 --> 00:16:45,080 allow this because look, addiction is a major profit center in modern capitalism. 206 00:16:45,480 --> 00:16:52,399 Like no one ever went broke, you know, from people who were too 207 00:16:52,480 --> 00:16:56,440 addicted. Right. Well, that that's why I said there was going to 208 00:16:56,480 --> 00:17:00,840 be an accident of some sort here, because this threatens you. If you 209 00:17:00,919 --> 00:17:06,440 threaten two trillion dollars of corporate prophets, you're dead. That's you. You're 210 00:17:06,519 --> 00:17:12,559 just going to die one way or another. You know, there's single single 211 00:17:12,599 --> 00:17:17,799 car accident you're driving by way. Yeah, they'll be they'll be flying a 212 00:17:17,880 --> 00:17:19,960 private jet to Domos or something like that, and they'll go down over the 213 00:17:21,039 --> 00:17:26,759 Rockies. But yeah, you know, you're so cynical, John, But 214 00:17:27,200 --> 00:17:30,880 I hate to say it. It's true. There's one that's even more effective 215 00:17:32,240 --> 00:17:37,799 than ozempic or somaglatide, and that is ter zepetide, which basically you lose 216 00:17:37,839 --> 00:17:42,640 as much weight from that drug as you do from bariatric surgery. All right, 217 00:17:42,799 --> 00:17:48,240 so that means you got all these guys who are putting in bands like 218 00:17:48,440 --> 00:17:53,400 the internal bands, external bands, they're like disconnecting your stomach all of this, 219 00:17:53,759 --> 00:17:57,720 they're going to be out of work too. This could throw we could 220 00:17:57,720 --> 00:18:03,640 have a global to press and all because there's a drug that effectively treats addiction. 221 00:18:03,839 --> 00:18:07,119 I think of all the drug and alcohol counselors, they're going to be 222 00:18:07,119 --> 00:18:11,519 on the breadlines. And this wasn't even done by AI. When you put 223 00:18:11,559 --> 00:18:15,240 all that, nobody's going to be working. If we can end addiction through 224 00:18:15,279 --> 00:18:22,559 a drug and thinking through chat gpt we don't need anybody to work anything to 225 00:18:22,640 --> 00:18:25,039 do anything, right, John, I think this is going to be the 226 00:18:25,079 --> 00:18:27,000 decade of automation. Yeah, you know that's that's going to be a front 227 00:18:27,000 --> 00:18:34,079 page story day after day after day because chat gpt is is eating into a 228 00:18:34,279 --> 00:18:40,359 really shockingly wide range of jobs. You know. The apparently part of the 229 00:18:40,359 --> 00:18:45,799 writer's strength in Hollywood is driven by fears about automation. In other words, 230 00:18:47,039 --> 00:18:52,240 a computer writing screenplays better than a human can do it. That's you know 231 00:18:52,279 --> 00:18:57,440 that that always seemed like right at the edge of creativity where no machine isn't 232 00:18:57,440 --> 00:19:02,480 going to be able to to do dialogue, for instance, as well as 233 00:19:02,519 --> 00:19:04,839 Woody Allen or something like that. But apparently that's a fear now, So 234 00:19:06,039 --> 00:19:08,599 Woody Allen as early days, not in his later days. I think the 235 00:19:08,640 --> 00:19:14,200 AI can beat them in his later movies. Yeah, but you know, 236 00:19:14,279 --> 00:19:18,640 that's a very big deal. That's that's the kind of transition that we aren't 237 00:19:18,680 --> 00:19:23,839 prepared for obviously, but we're going to have to creatively deal with avoid it 238 00:19:23,920 --> 00:19:30,319 turning into this just gigantic catastrophe because a lot of people now are talking about 239 00:19:30,319 --> 00:19:37,400 how that's going to be the thing that makes ubi universal basic income a feasible 240 00:19:37,640 --> 00:19:41,119 government policy because so many people are going to be put out of work. 241 00:19:41,920 --> 00:19:45,920 Meanwhile, the people who own the automating technologies are going to be raking in 242 00:19:45,960 --> 00:19:51,920 such an insane profits that will kind of have to tax the robots and then 243 00:19:51,960 --> 00:19:55,960 spread that money around to the people who are out of work with no prospect 244 00:19:56,039 --> 00:19:59,359 of getting back into their old careers because their old careers are gone. You 245 00:19:59,359 --> 00:20:03,839 know. That's the that's it's an intense decade or century or however long it 246 00:20:03,839 --> 00:20:08,839 takes. But it's good thing you and I are untouchable. Yeah, so 247 00:20:08,880 --> 00:20:11,799 far, it's so good. No, No AI can do what I can 248 00:20:11,839 --> 00:20:17,839 do or you can do. For now they're going, we'll be joining the 249 00:20:17,880 --> 00:20:21,839 rest on the sidelines. But think about this, jot. All the fent 250 00:20:21,960 --> 00:20:27,960 and all deaths, all the drug the deaths from food, from obesity, 251 00:20:29,680 --> 00:20:33,039 type two diabetes, all this, and then we have a drug that gets 252 00:20:33,160 --> 00:20:36,519 rid of all that. Not only will they have to give the UBI, 253 00:20:37,039 --> 00:20:41,400 but life expectancy is going to go up. And well, oh yeah, 254 00:20:41,440 --> 00:20:47,759 you know so, Social Security, medicare, Medicaid already bankrupt, but it's 255 00:20:47,759 --> 00:20:51,000 going to be even worse than that because all these people are like you and 256 00:20:51,119 --> 00:20:53,200 me. If they figure out a drug and we can stick around for an 257 00:20:53,200 --> 00:20:56,839 extra twenty or thirty years, they're going to have to figure out a way 258 00:20:56,880 --> 00:21:02,400 to get rid of us. So maybe the idea of that plane accident on 259 00:21:02,440 --> 00:21:06,880 the way to the Builderberg group meeting where all the uh, well, all 260 00:21:06,920 --> 00:21:11,000 the creators of all these drugs ending addictions, isn't isn't too far a stretch, 261 00:21:11,160 --> 00:21:17,440 is it? Yeah? But you know, wouldn't wouldn't that be just 262 00:21:17,960 --> 00:21:22,799 perfect? Boomers we've had We grew up in basically the best world that has 263 00:21:22,799 --> 00:21:27,160 ever been and we you know, we had it our way all this time, 264 00:21:27,240 --> 00:21:33,000 and we own all the appreciated stocks and all the appreciated houses, and 265 00:21:33,079 --> 00:21:37,200 then they come out with some drug that gives us an extra thirty years. 266 00:21:37,680 --> 00:21:44,960 I think. I think the the Zoomers and the millennials are not going to 267 00:21:45,000 --> 00:21:48,079 think that's fair. You know, well, how about civil war and they'll 268 00:21:48,119 --> 00:21:52,559 just decide to kill off all the people sixty and over because you're just soaking 269 00:21:52,640 --> 00:21:57,079 up the uh, you're just taking you're not contributing anything, You're just getting 270 00:21:57,119 --> 00:22:02,119 paid to not do anything. I think we own most of the guns though, 271 00:22:02,759 --> 00:22:06,880 so we're liable to win the civil war. Yeah, well and just 272 00:22:06,920 --> 00:22:11,839 live forever. Yeah. Yeah. The millennials like they never learned how to 273 00:22:11,839 --> 00:22:15,559 shoot. But speaking of the Builderborgs, So it's underway in Lisbon now. 274 00:22:15,680 --> 00:22:19,039 And if you don't know about the Builderberg group, all the movers and shakers, 275 00:22:19,759 --> 00:22:26,039 hundreds of billionaires from all over the place, and they set policy and 276 00:22:26,079 --> 00:22:32,279 then you know, supposedly like before the first Arab oil embargo, there was 277 00:22:32,279 --> 00:22:36,880 a Builderberg meeting and they decided that the guests would go up to a dollar 278 00:22:36,920 --> 00:22:40,359 a gallant. And in the year it was up in all of these things. 279 00:22:40,599 --> 00:22:45,839 So who's there but the guy who the head of Chat, of open 280 00:22:45,920 --> 00:22:52,480 Ai, the creator of Chat, GPT, the CEOs of Fizer, Microsoft, 281 00:22:52,519 --> 00:22:56,359 Goldman Sacks, and Stacy Abrams. I don't quite get the connection there, 282 00:22:56,440 --> 00:23:03,359 but all the world's move and shakers. I'm sure the heads of of 283 00:23:04,240 --> 00:23:11,680 Google are there, and Zuckerberg or somebody's there from Facebook. I don't know 284 00:23:11,759 --> 00:23:15,400 that they invited Elon Musk this year, probably not as my guess. You 285 00:23:15,440 --> 00:23:22,359 think Elon's there, I'm best he's there, um because they want to win 286 00:23:22,440 --> 00:23:26,519 him over. Hey, they either, let's face it, they have to 287 00:23:26,519 --> 00:23:33,480 assassinate Elon Musk or they have to co up right, so so one way 288 00:23:33,559 --> 00:23:37,519 or the other. Um, but or he's already co opted. You saw 289 00:23:37,559 --> 00:23:44,720 who he named the CEO of Twitter, who was an executive and what economics 290 00:23:44,720 --> 00:23:52,359 are on. I can't explain that unless he flipped her, unless he flipped 291 00:23:52,359 --> 00:23:56,920 her, well, unless he flipped her or they flipped him. Are they 292 00:23:56,759 --> 00:24:03,839 couldn't refuse? Yeah? Yeah, I mean maybe you know, with the 293 00:24:03,200 --> 00:24:07,799 bumper of a tesla in his bed. Well, because I mean think about 294 00:24:07,839 --> 00:24:11,079 it. They could go to him and they'd say they say, well, 295 00:24:11,079 --> 00:24:15,039 listen, we killed the Kennedys, we killed all these other people, you 296 00:24:15,079 --> 00:24:17,279 know, this guy and this guy and this guy that was us. We 297 00:24:17,359 --> 00:24:22,359 killed them all. We'll kill your kids and your wife and your parents unless 298 00:24:22,079 --> 00:24:25,799 you stop this. Then you stop this stuff right now. Yeah, you 299 00:24:25,880 --> 00:24:32,160 gotta sense ourselves here, John. Let's just say they wouldn't hesitate to extreme 300 00:24:32,279 --> 00:24:37,079 prejudice and leave it at that and before and they'll do it again. But 301 00:24:37,359 --> 00:24:40,720 man, that's like, yeah, I couldn't make out what that Twitter thing 302 00:24:40,880 --> 00:24:44,359 was unless it's like he had his new toy, he had his fill of 303 00:24:44,480 --> 00:24:47,880 it, and now he's got to get the Mars in a hurry, so 304 00:24:48,000 --> 00:24:52,599 forget it. Hey, So recession, we've been going over this leading indicators 305 00:24:53,119 --> 00:25:00,160 prerecession territory. Commercial real estate is in the pits and has no hope of 306 00:25:00,240 --> 00:25:04,640 ever recovering in our lifetimes. Home sales down twenty three percent year to year 307 00:25:04,680 --> 00:25:11,000 and home depot. But it's like, that's the really one of the companies 308 00:25:11,039 --> 00:25:18,240 that really excelled during the lockdowns during COVID, and that's reported some bad numbers. 309 00:25:18,279 --> 00:25:21,839 What's your take, Well, there are a lot of things that are 310 00:25:21,920 --> 00:25:23,880 rolling over and what they really knew, so you and you named a lot 311 00:25:23,880 --> 00:25:26,880 of them. And then there's the leading economic indicators which is a kind of 312 00:25:26,880 --> 00:25:33,119 a compilation of a bunch of indicators that tend to predict things going forward, 313 00:25:33,440 --> 00:25:40,240 like hours worked. For instance, if there are longer hours being worked this 314 00:25:40,279 --> 00:25:45,119 month, and that means paychecks are bigger next month and consumer spending is out, 315 00:25:45,240 --> 00:25:47,920 you know, so you can you can use hours worked to predict those 316 00:25:47,920 --> 00:25:53,720 other things. And that index is a very good predictor of coming recessions. 317 00:25:53,759 --> 00:25:59,640 And it's flashing red right now. It says major recession coming. And so 318 00:25:59,680 --> 00:26:07,160 it's no surprised that somebody like home Depot would be seeing less demand for things 319 00:26:07,200 --> 00:26:11,200 that are basically in a lot of cases optional, Right, if you're going 320 00:26:11,240 --> 00:26:15,599 to redo your kitchen, you can do it this year, or you can 321 00:26:15,640 --> 00:26:22,279 wait a year. And when you start being more and more nervous about your 322 00:26:22,279 --> 00:26:26,640 financial situation, it gets easier and easier to wait a year. So the 323 00:26:26,720 --> 00:26:33,440 home supply companies are sensitive in that way. So for Home Depot to see 324 00:26:33,440 --> 00:26:38,359 a big drop in earnings where there were their revenues down to I forget. 325 00:26:40,440 --> 00:26:45,039 So yeah, yeah, so anyhow for them to have a bad quarter is 326 00:26:45,079 --> 00:26:52,119 another leading indicator. It means that that spending from the sectors that would normally 327 00:26:52,519 --> 00:26:59,240 boyd home depot would be weak in the next quarter. Let's say, so 328 00:26:59,319 --> 00:27:03,160 I think by year end we're in a recession, and and then then we 329 00:27:03,240 --> 00:27:07,200 get back to that, Oh they're they're tapering a Ponzi's conping. You know, 330 00:27:07,480 --> 00:27:11,960 we would be basically shutting off the money's picket if the economy starts to 331 00:27:11,000 --> 00:27:15,079 turn over and you'd see a lot of debt go bad. That that commercial 332 00:27:15,119 --> 00:27:18,920 real estate thing is just you saw Sam Dell just or Zelle just died, 333 00:27:19,039 --> 00:27:25,559 right, Yeah, yeah, sad, Yeah. Yeah. He's really just 334 00:27:25,680 --> 00:27:29,559 this down to earth guy who was right over and over again about the real 335 00:27:29,680 --> 00:27:33,599 estate cycle. You know, he would build up this big portfolio of office 336 00:27:33,640 --> 00:27:37,640 buildings and warehouses and factories, and then he would sell them towards the peak, 337 00:27:38,119 --> 00:27:41,039 and then he would go on c NBC or whatever and and say, 338 00:27:41,119 --> 00:27:45,079 yeah, things are headed down. I'm out, I'm out of all my 339 00:27:45,119 --> 00:27:47,640 real estate now. And then it would work out, and then he would 340 00:27:47,680 --> 00:27:52,319 go back in at the bottom. And so he was doing interviews right up 341 00:27:52,359 --> 00:27:55,400 to the end when he was basically saying that same thing again, Yeah, 342 00:27:55,440 --> 00:27:59,920 I'm out, I'm a seller of real estate. He even he called today's 343 00:28:00,079 --> 00:28:07,359 society why am our republic. So he was as apocalyptic as he has ever 344 00:28:07,440 --> 00:28:11,000 been. And he's been right so many times in the past that I think 345 00:28:11,000 --> 00:28:15,759 we need to pay attention. And he says commercial real estate is a mess. 346 00:28:15,200 --> 00:28:21,000 So I got him. He's right, Yeah, you do. Based 347 00:28:21,000 --> 00:28:23,880 on the real stuff that's happening out there and the fact that he's been right 348 00:28:25,039 --> 00:28:29,039 so many times in the past commercial real estate is toast. It sounds like, 349 00:28:29,599 --> 00:28:33,799 yes, yeah, I think you are correct, man, I really 350 00:28:33,680 --> 00:28:37,200 I think he's right. I mean, that guy is one of the smartest 351 00:28:37,240 --> 00:28:42,079 guys and he wrote a book. I mean he was really, really talented 352 00:28:42,519 --> 00:28:48,720 and quite brilliant, so you know, hey, and you could never bet 353 00:28:48,720 --> 00:28:52,839 against him. He always had impeccable timing, that guy. Speaking of real 354 00:28:52,960 --> 00:28:57,920 estate. So New York City lost five point three percent of its population, 355 00:28:59,279 --> 00:29:03,839 almost half a million people since COVID, most of them heading south, all 356 00:29:03,839 --> 00:29:07,519 of them coming to Palm Beach County, Florida, where I am, which 357 00:29:07,559 --> 00:29:14,839 is why the place is so crowded now. And people still think that they're 358 00:29:14,839 --> 00:29:18,640 just coming here for the good weather, right, well, yeah, and 359 00:29:18,920 --> 00:29:21,920 it makes complete sense that people are leaving New York City now. It's very 360 00:29:21,920 --> 00:29:26,839 badly run and it has these monstrous winners. I've lived there for ten years, 361 00:29:26,839 --> 00:29:32,559 and I can remember some walks from one place to another in Manhattan in 362 00:29:32,559 --> 00:29:34,839 the middle of winter that were just you know, they're etched in my memory 363 00:29:36,039 --> 00:29:38,400 as the most painful things. You know. My skin is free anyhow. 364 00:29:38,920 --> 00:29:42,720 So it's no surprise that people are leaving New York City, and it's no 365 00:29:42,759 --> 00:29:48,359 surprise are going to Florida because that's the that's the normal kind of underground railroad 366 00:29:48,680 --> 00:29:52,880 thing they've got going where they ship their retirees down to Florida. So the 367 00:29:52,920 --> 00:29:57,799 big question is can Florida stay a free state if it imports ten million New 368 00:29:57,880 --> 00:30:03,680 Yorkers. I think the jury is still out. Yeah, what I think 369 00:30:03,000 --> 00:30:11,039 is that it will because people who come here are probably more conservative, I 370 00:30:11,079 --> 00:30:18,720 guess than those who are staying there, because Florida has become more red than 371 00:30:18,759 --> 00:30:25,920 ever. So my guess is probably it will stay that way. But I 372 00:30:25,960 --> 00:30:30,599 wouldn't put it past them. You never know. So it's just an interesting 373 00:30:30,440 --> 00:30:36,720 interesting phenomena there. Hey, so what about this. China springs their debt 374 00:30:36,759 --> 00:30:41,079 trap on a dozen countries. They're like coming out of our playbook. It's 375 00:30:41,119 --> 00:30:48,160 like Pakistan Kenya, Zombia, Laos, Mongolia. They're all in hock to 376 00:30:48,240 --> 00:30:53,519 the Chinese. They owe them billions and billions or often substandard infrastructure that was 377 00:30:53,640 --> 00:30:59,759 part of the Belton Road initiative. And China is not so friendly as the 378 00:31:00,079 --> 00:31:03,279 US, the Japanese and others. I just wonder if we're going to see 379 00:31:03,279 --> 00:31:07,839 a new round of Chinese gunboat diplomacy. Well, we weren't very friendly when 380 00:31:07,880 --> 00:31:11,519 we were doing that stuff. For remember that book, the Confessions of an 381 00:31:11,559 --> 00:31:15,039 Economic hit Man. Yeah, you know that. What the US used to 382 00:31:15,079 --> 00:31:18,559 do, according to him, was they would they would go in to you 383 00:31:18,599 --> 00:31:21,880 know, some Banana republic and talk to the dictator and say, hey, 384 00:31:22,039 --> 00:31:23,960 you know, we'll help you build this airport and we'll finance and everything, 385 00:31:23,960 --> 00:31:27,839 and you can you can pocket one third of what we give you and everything. 386 00:31:27,839 --> 00:31:32,200 And then so they go ahead and they do it, and then the 387 00:31:32,240 --> 00:31:36,440 airport doesn't generate enough cash to cover the resulting loans, and then the US 388 00:31:36,480 --> 00:31:38,960 gets to go in and just take those assets. Well, China's kind of 389 00:31:38,960 --> 00:31:41,480 doing the same thing now. They were, They were doing it with a 390 00:31:42,359 --> 00:31:45,920 happy face for a long time. Where was you know, we're never going 391 00:31:45,960 --> 00:31:49,079 to invade you or anything. We don't have anything like the CIA. Don't 392 00:31:49,079 --> 00:31:55,799 worry. But now they've made all these loans to all across Africa. Right, 393 00:31:55,880 --> 00:31:59,160 China is by far the biggest economic force in Africa, but now we're 394 00:31:59,160 --> 00:32:02,559 starting to call to loans. Yeah, and when when you call a loan 395 00:32:04,480 --> 00:32:08,440 that cannot be paid back, that means you get the collateral. So China 396 00:32:08,680 --> 00:32:13,759 is apparently going to be taking over a lot of infrastructure in the developing world, 397 00:32:14,960 --> 00:32:22,920 and you know with all the political influence that that implies. So yeah, 398 00:32:22,960 --> 00:32:24,279 I hate to say I told you so at anybody out there, but 399 00:32:25,759 --> 00:32:31,640 you cannot trust empires to to act in your best interest if you're in a 400 00:32:31,680 --> 00:32:36,519 small country. In fairness to China, I don't think they set out for 401 00:32:36,559 --> 00:32:42,559 this to happen. I think they really believe this Belton Road initiative was really 402 00:32:42,599 --> 00:32:45,119 going to be a major success. And you know, one of the reasons 403 00:32:45,160 --> 00:32:51,359 the United States became ascendant is because of trade routes, trade routes through the 404 00:32:51,359 --> 00:32:57,480 Panama Canal, trade routes from the US to Europe and to Asia, and 405 00:32:57,839 --> 00:33:01,880 it protected those trade routes were better than a hundred years. So the Chinese 406 00:33:02,039 --> 00:33:06,759 answer to that was Hey, we're going to do the built and Road initiative, 407 00:33:07,279 --> 00:33:12,039 and we'll pay off all these tinpot petty dictators. Will build airports, 408 00:33:12,119 --> 00:33:15,480 will build you know, ports and everything else. Well, as it turned 409 00:33:15,480 --> 00:33:20,599 out, the quality of that infrastructure not so good, not as good as 410 00:33:20,599 --> 00:33:28,039 ours, and then they became money losers because they weren't economically viable. And 411 00:33:28,240 --> 00:33:35,559 you know what bails out a economically unviable government investment over time? John? 412 00:33:36,000 --> 00:33:39,839 What inflation? All right? There's so many things that were built in the 413 00:33:39,920 --> 00:33:45,440 United States that were really worthless when they were built, but they were expensive, 414 00:33:45,720 --> 00:33:52,079 and as inflation proceeded ahead, it made those the economic case for those 415 00:33:52,119 --> 00:33:57,160 assets more viable. Problem with China is they haven't even finished half these projects. 416 00:33:57,759 --> 00:34:04,160 And the projects they have finished off and been substandard and just not capable 417 00:34:04,279 --> 00:34:07,760 of generating the return. And I give you the example. A lot of 418 00:34:07,760 --> 00:34:15,360 this was just means of getting capital out of China by private individuals because there 419 00:34:15,400 --> 00:34:17,800 was no legal way to do it. But when you have a money losing 420 00:34:17,880 --> 00:34:23,159 project that you have to keep subsidizing, then the money just flows pretty much 421 00:34:23,239 --> 00:34:30,960 unrestricted. And this is the upshot of it. Now, whether will you 422 00:34:30,039 --> 00:34:36,400 know the United States many times invaded countries because they weren't going to pay us, 423 00:34:36,960 --> 00:34:42,159 especially in South America Costa Rica. The term banana republic came from that. 424 00:34:42,880 --> 00:34:46,400 I wonder, you know, one day we just invaded Nicaragua because they 425 00:34:46,440 --> 00:34:54,440 wanted to expropriate to us fruits banana trees. Right, they just didn't like 426 00:34:54,599 --> 00:35:00,679 the idea of what's now jaquida. I believe us fruit is jaquida international. 427 00:35:00,440 --> 00:35:06,039 Uh so, I think we're we're in a new round of banana republics here. 428 00:35:06,559 --> 00:35:09,320 But they don't have any bananas to send right to China. Well, 429 00:35:09,320 --> 00:35:15,280 they've got a lot of other stuff like box site and what's what's the thing 430 00:35:15,360 --> 00:35:23,719 in oh in the Dominican another Congo? Yeah or dominic No, not Dominica, 431 00:35:23,880 --> 00:35:27,840 Yeah, okay, congos. But you can only send the you know, 432 00:35:27,960 --> 00:35:31,840 miners to mine it. But miners with an or not an R. 433 00:35:32,920 --> 00:35:37,840 Yeah. Well yeah, I mean those you know, those those videos of 434 00:35:37,920 --> 00:35:45,760 the child labor travel child slave laborers as far as the eye can see. 435 00:35:45,000 --> 00:35:52,079 So we can have cheap art for cars. Yeah, that's h's that's miners 436 00:35:52,159 --> 00:35:58,079 with When they say miners in cobalt mining, they mean M I, N 437 00:35:58,119 --> 00:36:05,079 O R, not er god Yeah, what a world? Really, what 438 00:36:05,159 --> 00:36:07,960 a world. You know, there's a long list of stuff we're gonna have 439 00:36:07,000 --> 00:36:09,840 to answer for him, and that's one of them. You know, the 440 00:36:09,880 --> 00:36:16,559 idea that our green technology requires something like that to be created, and we 441 00:36:16,599 --> 00:36:22,280 still think of it as green. It means we were never really cared about 442 00:36:22,280 --> 00:36:24,840 the environment, you know, we just wanted cool stuff at any price. 443 00:36:25,480 --> 00:36:30,199 Yep, that's it. Well, hey, the end justifies the means, 444 00:36:30,800 --> 00:36:35,320 and that's where we're at now. And you can't blame other countries for following 445 00:36:35,360 --> 00:36:39,599 that business model. It propelled the US to where it is today. But 446 00:36:39,800 --> 00:36:44,760 the past is not so rosy. A lot of people died, a lot 447 00:36:44,800 --> 00:36:49,400 of exploitation, a lot of suffering, and hey, I'm not like bashing 448 00:36:49,400 --> 00:36:54,599 the country, but you have to understand the history of the exploitation that carries 449 00:36:54,639 --> 00:36:58,679 on to this day. Right. Oh yeah, it's not the past. 450 00:36:58,760 --> 00:37:01,119 It's currently going on a lot of this stuff. You know, you look 451 00:37:01,159 --> 00:37:09,079 at factory farming or or most of the extractive industries that are springing up around 452 00:37:09,199 --> 00:37:15,599 clean tech, and it's as bad as anything we ever did. So yeah, 453 00:37:15,679 --> 00:37:19,079 yeah, that's too bad. The world couldn't have learned a lesson in 454 00:37:19,559 --> 00:37:23,239 They don't teach us this history, not in our schools, not in any 455 00:37:23,280 --> 00:37:28,920 schools, even in the countries we conquered in the Philippines, in Haiti, 456 00:37:29,440 --> 00:37:35,440 in Costa Rica, in Honduras, they don't teach this history. They don't, 457 00:37:36,039 --> 00:37:38,920 and therefore we keep keep repeating. Anyway, I don't want to get 458 00:37:38,920 --> 00:37:45,719 into the whole anti Americanism, but we have to acknowledge it worked, but 459 00:37:45,880 --> 00:37:50,800 at what cost? And to continue this model onward? This is not going 460 00:37:50,840 --> 00:37:52,960 to work in any event. That is it. We've run over. But 461 00:37:53,159 --> 00:37:59,440 make sure you go to John's substack. It's Robino substack dot com. The 462 00:37:59,480 --> 00:38:04,039 link is the show notes this interview. Hey, our sight Financial Survival Network. 463 00:38:04,119 --> 00:38:07,119 Make sure you sign up for your free newsletter that I'm sending out shortly 464 00:38:07,199 --> 00:38:12,320 and John, we will catch up with you next two weeks. Okay, 465 00:38:12,360 --> 00:38:17,400 Sehry, thanks for listening to carry Lets's Financial Survival Network, your solution to 466 00:38:17,400 --> 00:38:22,880 today's trying times. For the latest, go to Financial Survival Network dot com. 467 00:38:22,920 --> 00:38:27,719 Financial Survival Network now more than ever