Hello, and welcome to the Dynasty Do Podcast. I'm your host, Corey
Evans. This week the show is titled Overrated or Reliable. Basically, I
have assessed five players based on ADP rankings and just simple chatter I've seen online
who I think at this point in time are either overrated expectations are far too
high, or they are going to be reliable, perhaps a BILO candidate,
or in a more general sense, fair value, as is in the current
market infrastructure. Before I get to that, if you want a one on
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first is don Tavion Wicks. He turned twenty three in June sixty one,
two oh six. Not the best straightaway speed a straight line four point six
two forty mix up for it though with ball skills rout running physicality. You
had a thirty nine ers vertical and a ten foot ten inch broad jump,
so overall in appealing athletic profile that we saw on full display with Green Bay
last season. Former fifth round pickout of Virginia twenty twenty three, he had
one standout campaign, which came in twenty twenty one fifty seven twelve O three
nine. He managed to average eighteen point eight yards per catch across ninety three
receptions in school, and as a rookie with Green Bay thirty nine, five,
eighty one and four averaged fourteen point nine yards per catch across fifty eight
targets. As the PPR whys here with the eight to not win anybody leagues
yet Wicks end up being a really nice value or sleeper that if he took
him in a fourth fifth round rookie draft or a nice ad off, the
wave wire is now suddenly on the fantasy radar. Is he overrated or reliable?
Let's get to it. Matt Lafleur has compared Wicks to Devonte Adams,
which understandably has caught the attention of us in fans football circles. It's a
lofty comparison to me. That seems more traits or skill set than role based.
Adams was an alpha for the Packers year in, year out, connected
to Aaron Rodgers. A long way to go for Jordan Love to reach those
heights as a franchise Calbert quarterback, and the issue is the reason for costume.
I think Wicks might be a bit overrated right now. Is Green Bay's
loaded wide out depth chart? You have? Christian Watson sounds like he might
have pinpointed his soft tissue hampshire injuries with the offseason stud he did where he
found out that one of them was actually larger than the other and that was
causing the inefficiency or unbalanced muscle use. Let's see if it actually pans out
and Watson remains healthy some bounced back appeal. There you have Jade Reid,
Romeo, Dobbs, not to mention Josh Jacobs, Marshall Lloyd at running back,
possibly Ben aj Dillon along with Luke Musgrave took a craft a tight end.
Therefore, I think the talent of Wicks is legitimate. He's a reliable
asset in fantasy leagues as a flex in that territory, the target and snap
shares are where his outlook become cloudy. For example, his twenty twenty three
season high in snap break was seventy eight percent, so almost a full time
player. Season low, though, was twenty two percent, and that corresponded
with Christian Watson being in or out of the lineup, Jayden Reed emerging,
Dobbs towards the end of the season also really gaining steam. So I think
that Jordan Love is the facilitator. Obviously, Lafor is going to utilize all
weapons. I'm not sure that one Green Bay wide receiver is going to be
all consistent week over week. I think Wicks is perhaps cheapest of them all
Watson, Reed, Dobbs, but I'm not going to overspend. So a
one quarterback league, I'd say a mid to late second, super flex early
to mid third, and while he's not really overrated, I can see where
wicks His value is nearing a peak or sealing range of outcomes, and that's
when I usually pump the brakes in dynasty formats. So in summary, for
me, Wicks is a hold unless someone is coming to you offering a first
or second or a player you can't refuse. Otherwise, if you want to
acquire him, don't spend more than that threshold in value. To Mario Douglas
twenty four in December, he's five eight one ninety two four point four to
four speed six round selection on a liberty. Last year, he showed real
promise during his final year of school, output a seventy nine nine, ninety
three and six that translated well to the NFL in year one and was actually
one of the few consistent or reliable assets for the Patriots in twenty twenty three.
Forty nine grabs five sixty one four yards, no touchdowns, eleven point
four yards per reception, seventy nine targets as the PPR wide receivers sixty four
not all that far off in value from Dontavion Wicks. The cool part about
Douglas is that he was a focal point. He actually led the Patriots in
receiving with those five hundred and sixty one scoreless yards, and that could be
more of a negative reflection to how bad Mac Jones, Bailey Zapp beat the
entire New England offense was last year. There were not many offensive catalysts,
Douglas being one of them. He saw at least five targets from Week seven
to eighteen in each of those games and proved to be a solid weapon out
of the slot as a possession receiver sixty five percent slot rate in twenty twenty
three. What to Mario's software role ends up being, that's up in the
air. After the Patriots brought in kJ Allsbourn's a free agents, re signed
Hendrick Bourne, and then proceeded to draft Jill and Polk in the second round
Javon Baker in the fourth. Douglas has been a bright spot already, it
sounds like, based on most reports during spring workouts, picking up where he
left offs a rookie, albeit now with a new offensive coordinator as well as
a new regime. Let's see what Alex Van Pelt can bring. As doc
from Cleveland, it could be more of a committee approach to wide receiver.
I tend to think that Douglas is more overrated than down Tavion Wicks, just
in terms of pure sealing the potential in a one quarterback league early mid third
for de Mario super flex mid to late third. He is more valuable in
full PPR than half PPR. That's a factor to keep in mind depending on
your team context or league structure. Another buzzworthy name is Elate is Julia McLaughlin
twenty four September a bit undersized, as we know, at five to seven
a buck eighty seven. Nonetheless, he showed plenty of juice and agility as
a UDFA out of Youngstown State last season seventy six four to ten, one
touchdown as a rusher. That's good for five point four guards per clip and
thirty one for a buck sixty and two scores on thirty six targets. All
in all, PPR RB forty six was on the Fantasy Radar, but not
a week two week contributor Sean Payton has spoken positively about Julio for pretty much
his entire tenure with the team. At the same time, the Broncos have
a very crowded running back room. Javonte williams Audrick estimate Blake Watson, who
Sean Paydon has recently compared to Alva Kamaras. So if Blake Watson's a free
agent in your league right now, pick him up immediately. And if your
draft has not occurred, I'd say fourth fifth round only a target of mine,
and then'sma J p Ryan. I doubt all those running backs make the
final roster. Jaliel is being viewed by some though as a fixture in the
Denver offense, win his role as far from guaranteed. I do think Jaliel
looked more explosive with better vision than Javonte for most of last season. The
issue is Jalil's body frame is not necessarily equipped for ample volume despite his college
production, which I'll touch on here soon, making in more of a change
of pace weapon than true three down option. His season high for perspective in
twenty twenty three for snapbreak was forty percent, so not even a RBBC fifty
to fifty split season low three percent. So Jaliel has a wide array of
avenues as a sophomore, could be an RBBC member in tandem with Javonte or
a third down specialist who sees a field at a forty percent of blow clip
once again, special teams contributor the new kickoff rules, or this could be
Jalil's backfield. Eventually, the craziest outcome would be him not making a team,
which that seems a bit far fetched. Let's reflect back on that college
production. The resume was impressive from Youngstown State. It makes it easy to
forecast a larger role. For twenty twenty four. Jalil's rushing logs per year
in school were one thirty four, six ninety seven and five five point two
yards per carrie, one seventy five, eleven, thirty nine, and twelve
scores six and a half yards per totes and then a round it all off
two twenty seven, fifteen, eighty eight and thirteen for seven yards per carrey
in addition to securing forty four total career receptions. Bottom line is we need
to wait this backfield out. Let's see if Smashrack p Ryan is cut or
I'll quickly under estimate Blake Watson are brought along to understand if Denver's running back
rotation is going to be more or actually Javante and Jalil. It's an advisable
backfield or running back room to avoid in fantasy from my perspective, unless we're
able to roster Estimate or Watson for much cheaper in a one quarterback league.
I think acquiring Jalil for an early mid third makes sense. Super flex mid
to eight third even more incentive to do so if you have Javonte Williams.
That way, you can sort of heg your bet to see who Sean Payton
favors in training camp and the pre season. Time for a quick break,
I'll be back with two more overrated, reliable assets to discuss in Dynasty before
I get to that. If you want a bonus episode per week on limited
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for you, it's time for that quick break. I'll be right back Deontay
Johnson. Is he overrated or reliable? Twenty eight and July five, ten
one eighty three makes it more of a slot receiver than true franchise cornerstone former
third round pick out of Toledo to Pittsburgh in twenty nineteen with annual receiving logs
to dates of fifty nine six eighty and five touchdowns eighty eight nine, twenty
three and seven scores one oh seven, eleven, sixty one and eight.
That was a standout best season today eighty six for eighty two no touchdowns that
year, and then last season fifty one seven to seventeen and five, so
there's been a lot of ebbs and flows, ups and downs. Deanthy Johnson
was traded to Carolina, but as yearly target totals indicate that the best might
be behind him, yet could still be reliable. Those target totals per year
are ninety two, one forty four, one sixty nine, one forty seven
and eighty seven. I don't think he's going to see the one forty to
one almost seventy target total in Carolina PPR wide receiver forty one, twenty one,
eight thirty and forty five. Over that span of time, drops lack
of durability at times have limited Deonte to this point of Zenvil career went healthy.
However, his performs consistent wide out bringing fantasy with glimpses of value on
the wide receiver one or two borderline. Under Carolina's revamped offense, volume is
up for grabs and redistribution. The question is how much well head coach Dave
Canalis figures to write the ship for bres Young, who can now facilitate to
receivers in an approved scheme tea with Deontay Johnson, Adam Thielen, exavierl Get
at wide receiver, Jonathan Brooks, Jebu Hubbard, Miles Sanders at running back,
even Ian Thomas J. Tavion Standers at tight end. That's a lot
of mouths to feed. I would suggest or project Deontay performing as a wide
receiver three with flex upside, probably rounding out around one hundred and twenty or
so target mark based on what Bryce Young could see in terms of passing volume.
In twenty twenty four, Deontay's stock has plummeted since that twenty twenty one
season with over one hundred catches one thousand years receiving, which means he's no
longer expensive or overvalued in the dynasty trade market. In fact, Johnson is
now obtainable as a wide receiver three or four for that action of flex candidates,
which would be no more than a future or immediate second round K draft
pick. It is worth noting that Deontaey is entering a contract year has a
lot to prove or incentivize for all the wide receivers getting paid in today's NFL
at UFA in twenty twenty five, Bryce Young needs a security blanket. I
think Deanthony Johnson could be just that for him, underneath comeback routes, middle
of the field, better in PPR than half PPR. Deontay, I think,
is suddenly going to be more reliable than he was in Pittsburgh when there
was simply better receivers around him, and this is now an improved scheme.
I am a true believer in Dave Canalis, how he really turned around the
careers of Gino Smith and Seattle and Baker Mayfield in Tampa Bay. I hope
and expect that to be the case of Bryce Young, and that's going to
benefit a lot of pass catchers like Deontay Johnson. And then, last but
not least, Kamani vaidell Is twenty three in August five, eight, two
fifteen, a four point four to six forty that creates an enticing size speed
combination. He also posted solid jump scores thirty seven and a half as vertical
and a ten foot broad sixth rounder out of Troy this year. If you
ever on Patreon, you know that I was a fan of Kamani as a
sleeper in this year's class on my pre draft content. However, we've now
reached the point where he's a well known commodity with an inflated ADP, and
that's going to make it difficult to return value with Gus Edwards as the presume
starter. JK. Dobbins reportedly healthy in the Chargers running back mix. Kamani's
college stats are outrighting press if. His final two rushing logs at Troy checked
in at two thirty one, eleven thirty two and ten touchdowns as a twenty
twenty two and then two ninety seven, sixteen sixty one and fourteen touchdowns twenty
twenty three, averaging five point one yards per carrier across seven hundred and eighty
one career rushing attempts. That is efficient to a tee, not to mention
chipped in ninety two total receptions. Those numbers reflect a true workhorse at leads
to the college level at Troy. The concern for Kamani's NFL roll is twofold.
The case four is you have Jim Harbaugh Greg Rohman in what should be
a run focused offense. I tend to think that Gus Evers is the best
bet on volume man overall production. Just Reinnalu with Greg Roman from their Baltimore
days together. The case against Kamani is cost He's entered what I've seen the
second round of rookie adp and to me, that is a major red flag.
Pump the brakes. The train has left the station of just being way
overrated. There's also the increase in level competition Kamani being used to dissem Belt
conference in school at Troy compared to the NFL, and what NFL defensive coordinators
can do when they know that Ball and Roman going to be pounding the football
on the ground. In terms of actual buzz at a Chargers camp. So
far, there hasn't been a lot of chatter outside of the coaches that praising
Final's ability to pass block and that could go a long way, and seeing
the feel as a rookie, we all know he's talented. Kamani could do
it all as a rushroom receiver. There's always going to be holes or opportunities
to improve on as a college prospect, and there aren't a ton of standout
talents besides Jonathan Brooks and Trey Benson in this year's running back crop. Therefore,
it's okay to target Kamman in the third round rookie drafts. Otherwise,
if you reach for him the second, you're potentially drafting him what could become
his ceiling. So I think that Kamani is really overrated right now. If
he has a strong training camp in preseason and pushers Gus Edwards different story,
but investing at this point in time for a sixth rounder out of Troy seems
more like a cell high or cash shot opportunity than banking on what could be
the odds that he's the next isap Bacchecko are slim just based on previous hit
or miss rates with draft capital and all the data editor disposal for running backs,
so tread carefully. Receive a caution if you're valuing Kamani at what may
or may not be a role Year one for the Chargers. Hope you all
enjoyed my overrated or reliable episode. A quick recap I talked about Tavion Wicks
to Mario Douglas, Julia McLaughlin, Deontay Johnson, and Kamanie by daw Any
questions feel free to comment on my social media posts about this episode. Best
way to reach me though, is certainly on Patreon for only at five dollars
per month answerance cost and you're guaranteed a response on that platform. Thank you
all again for listening. Until next time, this is the Dynasty you're checking
out. I hope you all a great rest of the week. See you