Hello, and welcome to the Dynasty Dude Podcast. I'm your host, Corey
Evans. Thanks for listening. This week's show is called Buyer Beware Five over
valued players. Over Valued is a subjective term more or less. I am
defining it as being drafted or traded for above market value, which could be
ADP or consentus rankings, individual rankings. So I have five names that I
am avoiding at cost. I'm not avoiding them in general, just at their
certain price points. If you can buy them or draft them at a cheaper
cost, that's a different story. Before I get to that, we had
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over on the Patreon platform. So here we go. Buyer beware, I
have overvalued players up. First, I have remindre Stevenson, who was twenty
five years old, fourth round pick in twenty twenty one out of Oklahoma.
As a rookie in twenty twenty one, it was a one thirty three six
zh six five rushing line, four point six yark percarry and a fourteen for
one twenty three receiving effort. That was with eighteen targets. In twelve games
played. Not outstanding, not all that bad either. Twenty twenty two sophomore
he emerged a two ten, ten, forty and five rushing line for five
yards per clip, and then sixty nine four, twenty one and one with
eighty eight targets in seventeen games played. We didn't see this coming, this
leap for Remindre, yet he vaulted himself into the RB one RB two conversation.
For fanas football purposes, his ADP right now is a top twelve running
back. That's Redraft and Dynasty your consensus across the board. I'm comfortable with
that cost in Redraft, but not so much in Dynasty, since Stevenson was
older for a prospect and will already be twenty six next February, so short
shelf life in terms of longevity, and we don't know what New England has
in store for his running back room in twenty twenty three, let alone in
the future. Players that refer at cost instead, this is a dynasy conversation,
not redraft. Drake London, Nachie Harris, Kenneth Walker, jsn or
Jackon Smith and Jacbat and even an Asian veteran in Austin Ekeler. I'd rather
have that high ceiling in the short term than the incertency of Remandre year over
year. I'd rather treat Remondra as an RB two to hedge against Pierce Strong,
Tig Montgomery, Kevin Harris stealing volume, particularly receiving usage, since that's
what vaulted Remandra to a PPR RB ten overall finished at twenty twenty two.
Quick reminder, year one rookie fourteen receptions, year two sixty nine receptions.
That's a huge step forward that might not be repeatable or sustainable for Stevenson in
twenty twenty three if Pierre Strong, Montgomery or Harris eat into that workload.
So that's my concern for regression or Stevenson being a bit overvalued heading into next
season. It's also an assumption to forecast all the Patriots early on touches too
Stevenson, since he was held to fifteen or fewer Russian attempts in thirteen of
seventeen games played last year. I'll repeat that because it's important. Stevenson was
held to fifteen or fewer Russian attempts in thirteen of his seventeen games played last
year. His contests with more than that amount were rushes of twenty five in
Week five, nineteen in Week six, sixteen in Week eight, and nineteen
in Week fifteen. Sure without Damien Harris round, there's a clear path to
the lion's share of work for Stevenson in twenty twenty three, the overvalued label
comes to the picture, projecting remontree for a similar workload as top tier RB
ones, and that is where Stevenson's ADP is or isn't far off from for
that valuation. That's why I'm avoiding at cost. Stevenson is an RB two.
Sign me up. Stevenson is an RB one. I'm out. Next
up is Dalton Kincaide twenty four in October. A bit older for a prospect,
not as big of a deal for tight ends. Take time to acclimate
anyway, but still it's notable first round or this year out of Utah.
Spent five years in school towards San Diego free with Utah. At first,
the rhetoric out of Bill Camp was that Daltonincaide will be used more like a
wide receiver, a big slot mismatch. Since then, the team has temperate
expectations with offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, indicating that Kincaide's role is to be determined
not the best initial report. Time to turn that around. The issue is
his price is already very expensive in Dynasty formats. Kincaid is coming off of
a breakout twenty twenty two campaign. It was a seventy eight to ninety eight
receiving log in school for twelve point seving us per catch that resulted in him
being the first rookie tight end drafted in twenty twenty three to the Buffalo Bills.
That was over Michael Mayer, over Samuel Porta, etc. Terrific rout
runner, has reliable hands, a dept running catchability. Those are factors working
in Kincaid's favor. From a snapship perspective, I've considered that Dalton's lack of
run blocking, chops or experience will cost him valuable reps and plenty time to
more experienced tight end on the team already in Buffalo Dawson Knox and sure Knox
has his flaws as a receiver with inconsistent hands drops, but he's a terrific
blocker that is not Daltancaide, ADP Buys and Dynasty Kincaide already top five among
tight ends. Good chance that he's being drafted at his ceiling, and it
could take a few seasons for that even to be fulfilled potential wise on.
So that's why I'm fading him at a top five tight end price point.
Players that prefer at costs would be George Pitkins, Dallas Goddard, Pat Friar,
Mute, Jax Charbonnet or even James Cook who are very close to him
and start up ADP or existing rankings. I wouldn't trust kincaide as my tight
end one in Dynasty for twenty twenty three, even a tight up premium,
I think it's a bit of a stretch. A tight end two or tight
end three is ideal with the ability to then flex Kincaid if Buffalo's usage shows
us that he is indeed a focal point of the passing attack. But assuming
a that he usurps Dust and Knox right away and be that he is going
to have a consistent hard share when you have Josh Allen the passer and Rusher,
Stefan Diggs, Gabriel Davis, Clio Shakier, James Cook, Damian Harris
all in the mix for volume is a hard pill to swallow, which is
why I think that Kincaide is overvalued right now in Dynasty, even in redraft
to some extent. Anthony Richardson yet another overvalued player in my mind. He's
twenty one. He's a franchise building block in real life for the Colts and
in Dynasty, but more so for the future than immediate outlook. He's a
fourth overall pick this year. Aar spent three years with Florida. Twenty twenty
two is his only true season as a starter. Two thousand, five hundred
forty nine yards passing, seventeen touchdowns, nine interceptions completed fifth three point eight
percent of his passes compiled a one h three six orty four and nine Russian
line. The rushing output and athletic abilities, but has a so excited or
intreague from a fantacy line. It's not Richardson the pastor it's Richardson the rusher,
which is always a bit concerning with red flags in his profile allah other
rush first quarterbacks in the clay for the NFL. More on that to come
soon. ADP is the elephant in the room, though without even seeing his
first NFL snap, Richardson is being valued as a top ten quarterback in startup
drafts and in rankings that I've seen. I understand the case for him due
to what a ceiling could become. Think Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Cam
Newton, etc. I fear that drafting Richardson with those expectations, however,
leaves little room for error. Already top ten, if he does not reach
that threshold and perceived value, then you have a bust on your hands.
Therefore, players who prefer at cost this is a superflex conversation in a startup
draft, pretty much anyone quarterback, running back, by receiver, tight end
inside of the top twenty four not named AAR. I don't want to take
that risk as a core building piece in a startup draft because there is I
think more room for loss than profit. In a perfect world, rostering AAR
as a quarterback two is about to take. That's unfortunately not a reality in
startup drafts, yet possible in existing one quarterback and superflex leagues. In a
different sense, if you have a first anyone quarterback or a superflex league,
then drafting Rickertson makes a lot more sense than allocating your first overall or second
overall pick in a startup draft to make him one of your top selections.
That I think is a major question mark to assemble a new team around.
At this point, we know that Rickertson is going to start as a rookie
in twenty twenty three. At some point Colts GM has already publicly said,
so it's a matter of how long or if veteran quarterback Gardner Minshew holds him
off. The two have split reps so far in offseason practices, so training
camp and the preseason will reveal the Colts two plans for ar in twenty twenty
three. Without pads or offenders, We're seeing remarkable passes from Anthony on Twitter
or different highlight reels. We've witnessed that countless times be four with other rookie
quarterbacks who ended up being bust. Most recent example is Zach Wilson. Sure,
different skills set, but the same logic applies. We were enamored with
the skill set of Wilson him chucking balls down field with ease, strong arm.
Richardson has those tools, but he's a better rusher, yet he's more
incomplete as a prospect. The raw skills are there, there's a lot of
refining or development that's to take place. What is working in Richardson's favor is
that rare athletic profile six four two forty four four point four three forty fourty
and a half inch vertical and a ten foot nine inch broad drop, all
of which are off the charts records at the combine. For quarterbacks, what's
difficult to over come are the post snap decision baking skills that were displayed at
Florida, along with very inconsistent reading progressions, which is evident on tape.
That has me in the skeptic category. When assessing the short and long term
outlook for r in the NFL, let alone in dynasty fantasy football for all
clicks, then yes, Richardson is worth the price of admission. If he
fails to live up to adp however, then it could be a huge capital
loss to those who have spent a premium during this offseason in a startup or
existing dynasty league. Simply put, there are varying outcomes for richardson first entire
career, but I think he's one of the most polarizing players in redraft or
dynasty right now, and at this point I think he's a bit too expensive
for baking in far too much upside for a year one starter. The ceiling
is undeniable. We know the talent exists, There's a lot in between that
needs to go right for him in order to achieve or deliver at his current
ADP. Which is why I think that Anthony Riginson is overvalued. Right now,
it's time for a short break. Then I have two more overvalued players
to break down for this episode. How about Josh Jacobs, twenty five years
old, set to play in the franchise tag unless Las Vegs extends him.
Jacobs even could hold out into the regular season. Reports have indicated that he
has no issues doing so, at least into Week one. Time will tell.
Josh has been a steady and consistent running back for the Raiders since being
a first round pick in twenty nineteen. Prior to his standout twenty twenty two
put, Jacobs did not surpassed the following totals in any year rushing attempts two
seventy three yards rushing in a thousand, one hundred and fifty and yards per
carry four point eight. That makes his twenty twenty two production, which was
three forty sixteen three twelve for four point nine yards per carry, unbelievable,
simply unexpected. He was a league winner, in arguably the best value at
any position, certainly running back. In twenty twenty two, receiving production per
year has been twenty for one sixty six, thirty three for two thirty eight,
fifty four for three forty eight, and fifty three for four hundred.
That's one d sixty Cree receptions without catching a single touchdown. You'd think there'd
be some positive aggression for him in that arena. He's earned exactly sixty four
targets in back to back seasons. My concern is that his ADP, which
is understandable that there's such a dominant twenty twenty two campaign, is top five
to ten among running backs without the contract security. That's a risky bets to
invest in for Dynasty Redraft. Different story players that prefer at cost and Dynasty
over Josh Jacobs, Ore Travisy, tn Tee Higgins, Tony Pollard, DK
Metcalf, and Jordan Addison, to name a few. A general of FuMB
I have in Dynasty's a cashout on running back coming off of an outlier or
breakout campaign after a few years of NFL experience, Bat's Josh Jacobs and three
twenty twenty three. I already gave you the historical numbers his career highs prior
to last year, and then what he did in twenty twenty two. It's
an outlier. There's a definition of it in fantasy football. More likely than
not, the value of Jacobs has nowhere to go but down from a volume,
consistency and efficiency perspective. While Jacobs continues to restrain from signing the franchise
tag saw from running back Zamere Whites will continue to see expanded opportunities in practice.
He's ready being called out as demonstrating clear growth during his second manicamp by
Raiders coaches and beat reporters, and being a standout in general week after week.
That's encouraging. Since I was a fan of White as a prospect out
of Georgia reminded me a bit of a poor man's Nick Chubb stylistically as a
rusher. If White sees an expanded role in year two, that could be
a smash value who's available in the late rounds of a startup draft, or
could be acquired for as cheap as a third right now in existing dynasty league.
So We'll see how Jacob's treats situation coming into July and then August or
even September, pushing it towards Week one. But Zamir White could be the
takeaway from this conversation. Josh Jacobs is overvalued right now. He's not even
on an NFL team. He has not signed the franchise tech tender, so
Zameer White could be the presumed RB one if Jacobs legitimately holds out. If
not, it sounds like the Raiders are on board with incorporating Sameer White a
bit more into the game plan as a sophomore, which could hurt Jacobs ceiling
from matt Angle as well. Then, last, but not least, I
have Devanta Smith. He's twenty five in November. After being the tenth overall
pick out of Alabama in twenty twenty one and a Heisman Trophy winner at the
college level, Smith has carried over that pedigree and success to the NFL level.
As a rookie in twenty twenty one, it was a sixty four nine
sixteen five log with one hundred four targets for fourteen point three yards. Pertetch
sophomore year took a step forward ninety five eleven ninety six seven with one hundred
and thirty six targets for twelve point six yards pertetch his ADP, which is
why I think he's a bit over values entered the top ten wide receiver mix,
which could result in selecting him at his ceiling or close to it.
A. J. Brown remains the alpha or wide receiver one in Philadelphia.
He's under contract the Eagles until twenty twenty seven. Smith was incredible last season,
yet yet a few outlier performances that elevated his overall production. The box
score totals when you look at it season's end eight one sixty nine one at
Washington and then eight one thirteen two at Dallas, those are inflated numbers,
not to mex and Smith going on a hair from weeks thirteen to seventeen,
with four of those five games recording at least one hundred and two yards receiving.
That is not a sustainable pace. But I think that Smith is a
wide receiver two, of course, but at a wide receiver one price tag,
you're banking a lot of growth that might not exist from a tarret share
or overall static cumulation point of view. So players I prefer at cost and
dynasty would be Aman Ross, Saint Brown, Christo lav Jamir Gabs, Kyle
Pitts, or even Mark Andrews. To reiterate myself, I am in on
Smith as wide receiver two. It's the wide receiver one valuation that I have
a hard time agreeing with based on the presence of a j. Brown,
Dallas Goddard, Jefrey Swift or Shot Penny kind of game well, and of
course the volume Hurts will command as a rusher. So Smith is I think
perhaps overachieving right now, and his perceived value is a bit overvalued when I'm
assessing other players in rankings radp that are close to him. I don't want
to sell short on Smith or necessarily sell high. But if you can pivot
to a clear wide receiver one with a more visible path to being a top
target on their team and think it makes sense to at least consider trading him
after it could have been a career season in twenty twenty two, that will
do it. Quick recap of buyer beware five overvalued players vermondre Stevenson, Dalton
Kincaide, Anthony Rickertson, Josh Jacobs and Devanta Smith. Any questions. Hit
me up on Patreon. It is only five dollars per month at the minimum.
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We'll get it scheduled and locked in. Make you all again for listening until
next time. This is the Dyning Stude checking out. Talk to you all
soon, see you at a