Hello, and welcome to the Dynasty Do Podcast. I am your host,
Corey Evans. Thank you for checking out this week's episode. It is titled
five Sunk Costs in Dynasty Leagues. The idea here if you're not familiar with
the term or phrase sunk costs, it is essentially a player or draft pick
that you've held on to for too long and its market value is no longer
a where it used to be or B where you think it is supposed to
be, otherwise referred to as a sunk cost or what you are no longer
able to fetch any open market via trade. So I have five names if
you consider if any of them are on your Dynasty rosters, you don't want
to run to get rid of them for pays on a dollar, but consider
shipping them away before the twenty twenty four season begins. A few call outs
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five cent costs in Dynasty leagues up. First, I have Nick Chubb who's
twenty nine in December, so age is becoming an issue around his longevity and
Dynasty. Don't forget. He tours mcl and meniscus during Week two of last
season. It was a downright awful looking injury. It looked worse at the
time sure enough ended up needing ACL surgery as well to clean up at that
point basically his entire knee. Chubb is under contract with Cleveland until twenty twenty
five. However, a four million option in dead cap as a post June
first cut, it seems doubtful that Cleveland would exercise that move at this point
with Jerome Ford, now Heim Hines and most recently Daranis Johnson as other primary
running back depth options on the flip side, it cannot be ruled out because
Jerome Ford filled in admirably Fork Chubb in twenty twenty three. If Chubb is
released prior to post June first, or even traded, I don't think his
value outlook changes all that much with Cleveland or another NFL franchise at this stage
of his career. Now, Nick Chubb has been a model of consistency since
entering the pro level in twenty eighteen for production durability at the RB position.
That being said, he's approaching free agency and his age thirty campaign with one
thousand, two hundred and thirty eight career regular season rushes of mileage on his
body as well as on hundred twenty three receptions that takes his toll. In
addition to the heavy ample usage Chubb saw at the college level and his devastating
injury sustained during his Georgia days. Even if Trubb is able to return in
the early to mid stages next season, it's hard to imagine him returning elites
RB one value before because the Browns will more than likely ease him in action,
especially if a contract extension is on the table of conversation, even if
it's outside of Cleveland. Do you really think an NFL team post ACL surgery
and a torn MCL along with niscus are going to rush a soon to be
three yeard running back onto the gridiron when you could be at risk of a
setback or just wear and tear of set and even further, that's the concern
of Nick Chubb. That's why he's becoming a sunk cost before our eyes on
a more positive spin in terms of being able to sell or cash out of
Nick Chubb. His annual PPR finishes his twenty eighteen stand at RB seventeen,
RB eight, RB eleven, RB thirteen, RB six, and RB eighty
six with only one and a half games played last year. That equates to
mid range RB one stock or rock solid R two status prior to that last
season injury the shortened campaign. If people in your league or leagues are assuming
that Nick Chubb of old is going to resurface, then be sure to pounce
on the opportunity to pivot off of him as assumed to be if not already
sunk cost in dynasty formats, and I'm thinking for picks late first or early
second in super flex value amid to late first in one quarterback leagues. It
might sound nucrative. Then again, the running back landscape and dynasty is paper
thin in terms of workhorse, calber running backs. Nick Chubb fits that bill.
The question is we'll ever see that version of him again? There are
plenty of Nick Chubb enthusiasts out there who are going to put blinders on to
his age and injury history. And Matthews your capitalize off of because as tremendous
of a player that he's been over the stages of his NFL career. Unfortunately,
Chubb is on the back nine of it from a fantasy perspective in terms
of value. Up next is Miles Sanders, who will be twenty seven in
May. Sanders is a prime example that a hefty free agent contract doesn't translate
to guaranteed production in the NFL. Don't forget Miles signed a four year,
year, twenty five point four million dollar deal last offseason with Carolina with thirteen
million guaranteed, only to finish as the PPR RB fifty two with production of
one twenty nine, four point thirty two and one on the ground for only
three point three yards per carry ouch and then twenty seven for one fifty four
as a receiver, all in sixteen games played. Sure, Sanders dealt with
lingering or annoying injuries last season, but in sixteen games played he was the
RB fifty two and full PPR. That is about as bad as it gets
compared to the adper cost it took to acquire Sanders this time last year.
In the assumption, heyb be a borderline RB one worst case RB two with
the Panthers based on volume alone. That's after being a state line offense for
Philadelphia from twenty nineteen to twenty twenty two. Is a former second rounder out
of Penn States who produced as a PPR RB fourteen, twenty four, forty
four, and fifteen during his tenure with the Eagles. So this is upside
down value for Sanders. Year one of Carolina. Year two might offer a
clean slate with a new coach staff with the Panthers. I'm not banking on
that assumption. However, it proves that seame fit along the coaching staffs,
make a huge impact or have a major influence on running back usage in today's
committee approach at the position. Meanwhile, his teammate Chuba Hubbard was the PPRRB
twenty seven and twenty twenty three with stats of two thirty eight nine to two
pin five on the ground, three point eight yards per carry, and then
thirty nine for two thirty three's receiver. And he does not turn twenty five
until June. So Chewba Hubbard was far more effective in twenty twenty three.
He is younger and at this point should have the leg up on Miles Sanders
to be the one A in Carolina's projected RBBC. To make matters worse for
Miles Sanders, Carolina's new head coach, Dave Canalis has already been more vocal
about Chewba Hubbard than Sanders during offseason press conferences while discussing the Panthers running back
room. Not to dismiss Sanders at all, it's just if you listen to
what Canalys is preaching or stating he's more excited or incorporating Cuba skill set into
what he envisions for the Panthers in twenty twenty four, is it Rashad white
Roll. We will see Sanders is quickly becoming a sunk cost I would exit
for a late twenty twenty four second in superflex or a mid second and one
quarterback leagues. Is it possible that he flips the script and takes over as
the RB one Carolina over Cuba, Sure, but the more likely outcome is
that Sanders is now an RBBC member where he is no longer an alpha in
the backfield, and we saw that come to the forefront in twenty twenty three
despite the massive payday that he earned any open markets. So if Sanders is
RB two or RB three in a donasy league, this is the time to
try to bank on his name recognition and hope that your lead mates aren't necessarily
diving deep and seeing just how efficient Cuba Hubber was a year ago, and
that Dave Canal seems to be sold on Cuba over Miles, let alone Carolina,
adding a day two or day through running back to push either of them
for volume. Right now, it's not a great landscape situation for Miles Sanders
to be in the bi lo appeal will be a third or a fourth,
but nobody's going to sell that low with the name of his magnitude. How
about Chris Godwin. He turned twenty eight in February. He's aging before our
eyes a UFA in twenty twenty five, so on our contract for one more
year. Tampa Bay did indeed decide to run it back with Baker Mayfield and
Mike Evans thinking them to fresh contracts. Godwin could be next to nine for
an extension. Sure, However, a change of scenery could be in the
best interest for his dynasty value is the ages beyond the twenty twenty four season,
because Godwin is quietly fading into a relevancy compared to what he used to
be. Now, I'll provide that context soon. Last year alone, the
wide receiver twenty nine and PPR formats eighty three ten twenty four and two twel
point three years per catch, one hundred and thirty targets. The county stats
weren't all that bad. Over eighty catches, one thousand yards, only two
touchdowns a show for and that is where you really don't have the helium to
produce much better than a wide receiver three, which is the exact category that
Goblin fell into. That does make it three consecutive one thousand yard receiving campaigns
For Chris Godwin, the issue is his TV production. I just alluded to
it five three and two over that span of time, making him reliant upon
said counting stats to be fantasy relevant. And if there's ever a dip and
catches a yardage, Godwin is barely going to be in the flex radar Evans
he's locked in as the wide receiver one Bobert Shad White will maintain a receiving
role. Tampa Bay is also reported high on Trey Palmer, who show glimpses
of not stardom, but at least starter quality talent last season, and that
means Goblin could at some point become expendable or an afterthought to the offense without
OC. Dave Canalis at the Helm, which I guess mentioned, is now
the head coach in Carolina instead. Enter Liam Cohen. He's the new OC,
and he actually previously worked with Baker Mayfield in twenty twenty two as the
La RAMSOC when Baker lashed down there towards the end of the season. I've
long been a proponent and fan of Chris Gobwin, so him being a sunk
cost it pains men't even have this conversation former third rounder out of Penn State
ack to twenty seventeen. His college film was extraordinary. I simply fear that
he's nearing the end of his value life cycle for dimson purposes and is approaching,
if not already, in that sunk cost territory or a point of no
return. So look to pivot off of him or exit at a price.
I'd say most is early mid second and super flex or a late first and
one quarterback leagues, but based on all the hype in this year's class,
you might have to settle for that mid to late second, which doesn't sound
all that optimal. Basically, long story short, if you have Chris Gobin,
you're a contender. He could be viewed as a hold, but if
you're middle of the packer rebuilding, you need to strong consider exiting before it's
too late. At his best, Goblin finishes the PPR wide Receiver two in
twenty nineteen. Otherwise, he's performed as a wide receiver sixty seven, twenty
nine, thirty one, sixteen nineteen, and twenty nine last season as a
pro. That's borderline wide receiver two three value with a downward trend in stock,
so at peak, he was a top five wide out, but all
their campaigns again to the answer to the League of sixty seven, twenty nine,
thirty one, sixteen nineteen to twenty nine, he's not a wide receiver
one. He really hasn't been outside of twenty nineteen as wide receiver two and
even last year on the wide Receiver three map. So don't overvalue Goblin because
Baker's back with Tampa Bay. There's a lot of moving pieces in this offense.
Goblin is no longer the focal point of it. Time for a quick
break. I'll be back with two more sunk costs to describe in Dynasty break
down what to do with them Before that, don't forget if you want access
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bios be right back after that quick break. Christian Watson comes to mind as
the sunk cost twenty five in May. Still relatively young, he's under contract
with Green Bands Will twenty twenty six. A former second round pick out North
Kota, States in twenty twenty two, a lack of availability with soft tissue
injuries has cost while series playing time during his rookie and software NFL campaigns.
It is now legitimately up for debates who Green Bay's most valuable wide receiver is
to roster and dynasty, between Christian Watson, Jayden Reed Heck, even Romeo
Dobbs or d'antavion Wicks at cost, because cost is everything when you're comparing wideouts
in the same team. Sometimes the cheaper asset is better than overspending on someone
like Watson or Reed Anyway, twenty twenty two, Watson delivered a forty one
six' eleven and seven log fourteen point nine yus per ketch on sixty six targets
as a PPR wide receiver forty one lackluster. Twenty twenty three was worse twenty
eight four, twenty two and five for fifteen point one years per ketch on
fifty three targets as a PPR wide receiver sixty eight RAND three. Year three
is actually a make up break campaign for the often injured Christian Watson. Sure
Jordan Love and a sending talent, so we want exposure to his pass catchers,
as becoming a desire for most Dynasty enthusiasts. Dilemma is Watson more often
than not comes with a steeper price tag than his peers on Green Bay's wide
out depth charts, because this seems so much higher when in actuality he's managed
to deliver wide receiver four, wid receiver five, or even wide receiver six
numbers. So far as a rookie or sophomore from a fantasy perspective, value,
Christian Watson inside a top one hundred players overall, whether it be super
flex or one quarterback leagues, seems farfetched or risky. Entering his third NFL
season in terms of rookie draft capital, that places him on the early to
mid twenty twenty four second price range, where I simply prefer to hit the
reset button on a player, clean slate, clean bill of health, and
hopefully be able to provide more consistency alawment durability. That's so key. Availability,
I say it over and over again, is the best ability. From
a fantasy perspective. If you have someone playing sixteen seventeen games, it's better
than perhaps a better talent with a higher ceiling to play as five, six,
seven, eight games. You need consistency week in, week out for
your lineup. It's worth noting that Christian Watson plans to undergo offseason medical testing
to determine why he's battled reoccurring hamstering injuries in the NFL. To me,
that sounds like the definition of a red flag, and diet or training methods
are possible solutions. But a player seeking additional help or resources because of soft
tissue issues, to me, means that they're not going to go away,
and it was also an issue for him in college. So Christian Watson is
someone I'm easily fading in Dynasty unless the price is a steal. I'm talking
a late second or third. At that point, sure it's worth the theoretical
upside sunk costs territories approaching, especially with the emergence of Jayden Reed and all
of the movie pieces in the Packers offense. Even without Aaron Jones, you
know Josh Jacobs, who's a workhorse, the wide receivers, Reed, Dobbs,
Wicks, Melton tight Ends, Luke Muskrave, Tooker, Kraft. The
bottom line is that if Watson is his time, there are replacement options ready
willing to be as good or better. And that's what's so dangerous about investing
a premium into Watson in twenty twenty four, and then last, but not
least, perhaps the most controversial name. That's why I saved it perhaps best
for last. It's justin Herbert hear me out. He turned twenty six a
few weeks ago, so as a quarterback, that's a lot to look forward
to in terms of career. Arc underwent surgery in December of last season to
address a fracture of right index finger, which is a throwing hand. We
knew that the end of his twenty twenty three campaign was near after he suffered
that ailment. He was the quarterback seventeen last year, six point the pet
in touchdown leagues, three thousand, one hundred and thirty four yards passing,
twenty touchdown seven picks, sixty five point one completion percentage rate for six point
nine yard press attempt, and fifty two two twenty eight and three as a
rusher. His previous Fantasy finishes are quarterback nine twenty twenty, Quarterback two twenty
twenty one, and quarterback eleven twenty twenty two. So that was three straight
quarterback one finishes in a twelve team league, and then last year was a
quarterback two due to injury and missing some time. Herbert's talent isn't in question.
Instead, it's the departure of Keenan Allen to the Bears, Mike Williams
the Jets, Austin Eckler to Washington, and Gerald Everett to Chicago, not
to mention the most important factor that being new head coach Jim Harbaugh, who
is as run focused as it gets, along with O C. Greg Roman,
who is also an old school established a run offensive mind, expect Herbert's
passing volume to decrease cosiderably in twenty twenty four compared to his career norms or
totals to dates of five ninety five, six seventy two, six ninety nine
and four forty six per year. A lack of passing volume is going to
undoubtedly lower his floor and ceiling in fantasy. So unless Herbert sees an increase
conversely in rushing output, it's fair to question if he's even going to be
a quarterback one or top twelve option at his position Under Jim Harball and Greg
Rohman. His annual rushing logs since twenty twenty are fifty five, two thirty
four and five sixty three, three h two and three fifty four for one
forty seven and last year fifty two two twenty eight three. That's a baseline
or average of fifty six rushes for two hunred twenty seven yards and two touchdowns.
That's not going to get it done if the passing volume doesn't increase or
in this case, remains status quote. It as a matter of how much
decreases under Harbaugh. With that context, in mine quarterbacks I'd rather roster over
Justin Herbert in Dynasty now include Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts,
Laar Jackson, j Stroud, Joe Burrow, Kyler Murray, Trevor Lawrence,
Caleb Williams, Anthony Richardson, possibly even Dak Prescott, even with the Offield
allegations. That's a little risky. We don't know the details there. Jordan
Love, even Jaden Daniels. That's how fearful I am that Justin Herbert is
going to be basically put into a game manager role. If you're concerned about
JJ McCarthy as a prospect, that is what Jim Harball is going to do
to Justin Herbert. He's going to become more of a facilitator than outright game
changer. Especially with the current supporting cast of Gus Edwards. You have at
wide receiver Joshua Palmer, Quentin Johnston at tight end, a combination of Will
Disley and other veteran talents. It's not a great infrastructure or environment for Herbert
to thrive, let alone any other player rookie included, unless it's someone like
Thelik Neighbors Romaduonzay. Then potentially there'll be some appealing upside or a stack.
Right now, Herbert carries more name recognition than actual value. Take advantage of
his previous success in your league if members don't realize his stock is trading the
wrong direction. Again, it's not a talent issue, but sometimes understanding scheme
and coaching tendencies like Harbaugh and in this case Roman is more important than a
player's talent. And keep in mind that Herbert is under contract till twenty thirty,
so there's no clear escape outside of a trade, which seems unlikely for
a franchise cornerstone a quarterback, just based on the amount due or how much
you would alter the course of basically giving up the farm a future draft capital
to lock in a quarterback of his level. So basically we're in't the situation
of if you have Herbert in a supervis league, if he's your quarterback one,
I'd be concerned. If it's your quarterback two, it's not as bad.
At least you have an anchor at quarterback one. But in a one
quarterback league, rolling out justin Herbert in twenty twenty four is going to be
a roller coasters you going to be Peaks Valleys. The volume will decrease,
in part due to a new coaching staff along with a weaker supporting cast than
what we've been used to during his time with the Chargers. Two dates that
will do it. Hope you enjoyed my five sunk costs in Dinasha League's episode
once again. Those were Nick Chubb, Miles Sanders, Chris Godwin, Christian
Watson, and Justin Herbert. As a recap am, I saying, immediately
sell all these players at a discount. No, it's about finding the pulse
of your league mates if they're aware of the situations where these roles could decrease
and or becoming at risk of approaching sun cost territory. I'd rather have seventy
five cents on a dollar than fifty to twenty five cents. And if that
means cashing out to your early and you're too late, so be it.
You have to be active and ahead, be proactive, not reactive in dynasty
in these five names, I think fit that criteria to a t. Thank
you all for listening. Don't forget to take advantage of my seventeen percent off
roster call promotion before that expires until next time. This is the Dynostaur checking
out. I'll be back next week with a brand new episode. Talk to
you then see you.