1 00:00:20,760 --> 00:00:23,879 Hello, and welcome to the Dynasty Do Podcast. I am your host, 2 00:00:23,879 --> 00:00:26,960 Corey Evans. Thank you for checking out this week's episode. It is titled 3 00:00:27,000 --> 00:00:31,480 five Sunk Costs in Dynasty Leagues. The idea here if you're not familiar with 4 00:00:31,480 --> 00:00:36,320 the term or phrase sunk costs, it is essentially a player or draft pick 5 00:00:36,759 --> 00:00:40,880 that you've held on to for too long and its market value is no longer 6 00:00:41,119 --> 00:00:44,159 a where it used to be or B where you think it is supposed to 7 00:00:44,240 --> 00:00:47,560 be, otherwise referred to as a sunk cost or what you are no longer 8 00:00:47,840 --> 00:00:51,960 able to fetch any open market via trade. So I have five names if 9 00:00:51,960 --> 00:00:55,520 you consider if any of them are on your Dynasty rosters, you don't want 10 00:00:55,560 --> 00:00:58,159 to run to get rid of them for pays on a dollar, but consider 11 00:00:58,240 --> 00:01:00,840 shipping them away before the twenty twenty four season begins. A few call outs 12 00:01:00,880 --> 00:01:04,200 before I get into this week's content, Shout out to Kyle for joining Patreon 13 00:01:04,200 --> 00:01:07,480 and support me to ton. Patreon is the only spot we'll get my rookie 14 00:01:07,519 --> 00:01:11,840 rankings both pre and post draft, and then be sure take advantage of my 15 00:01:11,920 --> 00:01:18,480 expiring March promotion of seventeen that's one to seven percent off roster calls to celebrate 16 00:01:18,519 --> 00:01:23,000 Saint patri To Day and bring some good luck for our teams this upcoming campaign. 17 00:01:23,280 --> 00:01:26,760 So usually it's thirty bucks thirty minutes or fifty bucks four one hour. 18 00:01:26,879 --> 00:01:30,879 Go ahead and slash seventy percent off those prices for a roster call this month. 19 00:01:32,200 --> 00:01:36,000 If interested, you can hit me up on social media over on Instagram 20 00:01:36,120 --> 00:01:40,719 or Twitter, slash x as at Dynasty do pod the Dynasty Dude over on 21 00:01:40,760 --> 00:01:47,760 Facebook, or good old fashioned email dynastydupodatgmail dot com. Will suffice all right 22 00:01:47,920 --> 00:01:52,640 five cent costs in Dynasty leagues up. First, I have Nick Chubb who's 23 00:01:52,680 --> 00:01:56,879 twenty nine in December, so age is becoming an issue around his longevity and 24 00:01:56,959 --> 00:02:00,000 Dynasty. Don't forget. He tours mcl and meniscus during Week two of last 25 00:02:00,000 --> 00:02:04,400 season. It was a downright awful looking injury. It looked worse at the 26 00:02:04,400 --> 00:02:07,639 time sure enough ended up needing ACL surgery as well to clean up at that 27 00:02:07,719 --> 00:02:12,800 point basically his entire knee. Chubb is under contract with Cleveland until twenty twenty 28 00:02:12,800 --> 00:02:15,840 five. However, a four million option in dead cap as a post June 29 00:02:15,919 --> 00:02:21,120 first cut, it seems doubtful that Cleveland would exercise that move at this point 30 00:02:21,199 --> 00:02:24,719 with Jerome Ford, now Heim Hines and most recently Daranis Johnson as other primary 31 00:02:24,759 --> 00:02:29,159 running back depth options on the flip side, it cannot be ruled out because 32 00:02:29,199 --> 00:02:32,599 Jerome Ford filled in admirably Fork Chubb in twenty twenty three. If Chubb is 33 00:02:32,639 --> 00:02:37,240 released prior to post June first, or even traded, I don't think his 34 00:02:37,360 --> 00:02:40,759 value outlook changes all that much with Cleveland or another NFL franchise at this stage 35 00:02:40,879 --> 00:02:45,439 of his career. Now, Nick Chubb has been a model of consistency since 36 00:02:45,560 --> 00:02:50,080 entering the pro level in twenty eighteen for production durability at the RB position. 37 00:02:50,560 --> 00:02:53,879 That being said, he's approaching free agency and his age thirty campaign with one 38 00:02:53,919 --> 00:02:59,000 thousand, two hundred and thirty eight career regular season rushes of mileage on his 39 00:02:59,080 --> 00:03:01,159 body as well as on hundred twenty three receptions that takes his toll. In 40 00:03:01,199 --> 00:03:06,400 addition to the heavy ample usage Chubb saw at the college level and his devastating 41 00:03:06,400 --> 00:03:09,479 injury sustained during his Georgia days. Even if Trubb is able to return in 42 00:03:09,479 --> 00:03:14,400 the early to mid stages next season, it's hard to imagine him returning elites 43 00:03:14,520 --> 00:03:17,680 RB one value before because the Browns will more than likely ease him in action, 44 00:03:17,840 --> 00:03:22,840 especially if a contract extension is on the table of conversation, even if 45 00:03:22,879 --> 00:03:27,280 it's outside of Cleveland. Do you really think an NFL team post ACL surgery 46 00:03:27,360 --> 00:03:30,240 and a torn MCL along with niscus are going to rush a soon to be 47 00:03:30,280 --> 00:03:32,520 three yeard running back onto the gridiron when you could be at risk of a 48 00:03:32,520 --> 00:03:37,560 setback or just wear and tear of set and even further, that's the concern 49 00:03:37,599 --> 00:03:39,360 of Nick Chubb. That's why he's becoming a sunk cost before our eyes on 50 00:03:39,400 --> 00:03:43,439 a more positive spin in terms of being able to sell or cash out of 51 00:03:43,520 --> 00:03:46,520 Nick Chubb. His annual PPR finishes his twenty eighteen stand at RB seventeen, 52 00:03:46,800 --> 00:03:51,319 RB eight, RB eleven, RB thirteen, RB six, and RB eighty 53 00:03:51,319 --> 00:03:53,879 six with only one and a half games played last year. That equates to 54 00:03:54,000 --> 00:03:59,240 mid range RB one stock or rock solid R two status prior to that last 55 00:03:59,240 --> 00:04:02,520 season injury the shortened campaign. If people in your league or leagues are assuming 56 00:04:02,560 --> 00:04:05,879 that Nick Chubb of old is going to resurface, then be sure to pounce 57 00:04:05,879 --> 00:04:10,680 on the opportunity to pivot off of him as assumed to be if not already 58 00:04:10,680 --> 00:04:15,280 sunk cost in dynasty formats, and I'm thinking for picks late first or early 59 00:04:15,360 --> 00:04:18,399 second in super flex value amid to late first in one quarterback leagues. It 60 00:04:18,480 --> 00:04:23,399 might sound nucrative. Then again, the running back landscape and dynasty is paper 61 00:04:23,480 --> 00:04:26,920 thin in terms of workhorse, calber running backs. Nick Chubb fits that bill. 62 00:04:27,240 --> 00:04:29,800 The question is we'll ever see that version of him again? There are 63 00:04:29,839 --> 00:04:33,040 plenty of Nick Chubb enthusiasts out there who are going to put blinders on to 64 00:04:33,160 --> 00:04:39,120 his age and injury history. And Matthews your capitalize off of because as tremendous 65 00:04:39,160 --> 00:04:43,680 of a player that he's been over the stages of his NFL career. Unfortunately, 66 00:04:43,759 --> 00:04:46,000 Chubb is on the back nine of it from a fantasy perspective in terms 67 00:04:46,000 --> 00:04:49,480 of value. Up next is Miles Sanders, who will be twenty seven in 68 00:04:49,519 --> 00:04:55,959 May. Sanders is a prime example that a hefty free agent contract doesn't translate 69 00:04:56,000 --> 00:05:00,000 to guaranteed production in the NFL. Don't forget Miles signed a four year, 70 00:05:00,079 --> 00:05:03,439 year, twenty five point four million dollar deal last offseason with Carolina with thirteen 71 00:05:03,480 --> 00:05:08,759 million guaranteed, only to finish as the PPR RB fifty two with production of 72 00:05:08,759 --> 00:05:11,360 one twenty nine, four point thirty two and one on the ground for only 73 00:05:11,360 --> 00:05:15,399 three point three yards per carry ouch and then twenty seven for one fifty four 74 00:05:15,439 --> 00:05:17,319 as a receiver, all in sixteen games played. Sure, Sanders dealt with 75 00:05:17,439 --> 00:05:21,399 lingering or annoying injuries last season, but in sixteen games played he was the 76 00:05:21,480 --> 00:05:26,040 RB fifty two and full PPR. That is about as bad as it gets 77 00:05:26,079 --> 00:05:30,079 compared to the adper cost it took to acquire Sanders this time last year. 78 00:05:30,079 --> 00:05:32,680 In the assumption, heyb be a borderline RB one worst case RB two with 79 00:05:32,800 --> 00:05:38,279 the Panthers based on volume alone. That's after being a state line offense for 80 00:05:38,279 --> 00:05:41,519 Philadelphia from twenty nineteen to twenty twenty two. Is a former second rounder out 81 00:05:41,519 --> 00:05:45,920 of Penn States who produced as a PPR RB fourteen, twenty four, forty 82 00:05:45,959 --> 00:05:48,720 four, and fifteen during his tenure with the Eagles. So this is upside 83 00:05:48,800 --> 00:05:54,079 down value for Sanders. Year one of Carolina. Year two might offer a 84 00:05:54,079 --> 00:05:57,600 clean slate with a new coach staff with the Panthers. I'm not banking on 85 00:05:57,639 --> 00:06:00,519 that assumption. However, it proves that seame fit along the coaching staffs, 86 00:06:00,560 --> 00:06:04,800 make a huge impact or have a major influence on running back usage in today's 87 00:06:04,800 --> 00:06:10,399 committee approach at the position. Meanwhile, his teammate Chuba Hubbard was the PPRRB 88 00:06:10,480 --> 00:06:13,439 twenty seven and twenty twenty three with stats of two thirty eight nine to two 89 00:06:13,480 --> 00:06:15,040 pin five on the ground, three point eight yards per carry, and then 90 00:06:15,079 --> 00:06:18,040 thirty nine for two thirty three's receiver. And he does not turn twenty five 91 00:06:18,120 --> 00:06:21,600 until June. So Chewba Hubbard was far more effective in twenty twenty three. 92 00:06:21,959 --> 00:06:26,720 He is younger and at this point should have the leg up on Miles Sanders 93 00:06:26,920 --> 00:06:30,199 to be the one A in Carolina's projected RBBC. To make matters worse for 94 00:06:30,319 --> 00:06:34,720 Miles Sanders, Carolina's new head coach, Dave Canalis has already been more vocal 95 00:06:34,759 --> 00:06:41,120 about Chewba Hubbard than Sanders during offseason press conferences while discussing the Panthers running back 96 00:06:41,199 --> 00:06:44,600 room. Not to dismiss Sanders at all, it's just if you listen to 97 00:06:44,639 --> 00:06:49,560 what Canalys is preaching or stating he's more excited or incorporating Cuba skill set into 98 00:06:49,600 --> 00:06:53,959 what he envisions for the Panthers in twenty twenty four, is it Rashad white 99 00:06:54,040 --> 00:06:58,360 Roll. We will see Sanders is quickly becoming a sunk cost I would exit 100 00:06:58,560 --> 00:07:01,079 for a late twenty twenty four second in superflex or a mid second and one 101 00:07:01,120 --> 00:07:04,959 quarterback leagues. Is it possible that he flips the script and takes over as 102 00:07:05,000 --> 00:07:10,720 the RB one Carolina over Cuba, Sure, but the more likely outcome is 103 00:07:10,720 --> 00:07:14,560 that Sanders is now an RBBC member where he is no longer an alpha in 104 00:07:14,600 --> 00:07:16,480 the backfield, and we saw that come to the forefront in twenty twenty three 105 00:07:16,480 --> 00:07:20,839 despite the massive payday that he earned any open markets. So if Sanders is 106 00:07:21,040 --> 00:07:24,800 RB two or RB three in a donasy league, this is the time to 107 00:07:25,000 --> 00:07:29,839 try to bank on his name recognition and hope that your lead mates aren't necessarily 108 00:07:29,920 --> 00:07:33,199 diving deep and seeing just how efficient Cuba Hubber was a year ago, and 109 00:07:33,240 --> 00:07:36,920 that Dave Canal seems to be sold on Cuba over Miles, let alone Carolina, 110 00:07:36,920 --> 00:07:40,199 adding a day two or day through running back to push either of them 111 00:07:40,240 --> 00:07:44,240 for volume. Right now, it's not a great landscape situation for Miles Sanders 112 00:07:44,240 --> 00:07:46,319 to be in the bi lo appeal will be a third or a fourth, 113 00:07:46,360 --> 00:07:49,439 but nobody's going to sell that low with the name of his magnitude. How 114 00:07:49,439 --> 00:07:54,279 about Chris Godwin. He turned twenty eight in February. He's aging before our 115 00:07:54,279 --> 00:07:57,279 eyes a UFA in twenty twenty five, so on our contract for one more 116 00:07:57,360 --> 00:08:01,399 year. Tampa Bay did indeed decide to run it back with Baker Mayfield and 117 00:08:01,439 --> 00:08:05,560 Mike Evans thinking them to fresh contracts. Godwin could be next to nine for 118 00:08:05,560 --> 00:08:07,680 an extension. Sure, However, a change of scenery could be in the 119 00:08:07,680 --> 00:08:11,560 best interest for his dynasty value is the ages beyond the twenty twenty four season, 120 00:08:11,879 --> 00:08:16,360 because Godwin is quietly fading into a relevancy compared to what he used to 121 00:08:16,399 --> 00:08:18,439 be. Now, I'll provide that context soon. Last year alone, the 122 00:08:18,439 --> 00:08:22,519 wide receiver twenty nine and PPR formats eighty three ten twenty four and two twel 123 00:08:22,560 --> 00:08:26,360 point three years per catch, one hundred and thirty targets. The county stats 124 00:08:26,360 --> 00:08:28,120 weren't all that bad. Over eighty catches, one thousand yards, only two 125 00:08:28,160 --> 00:08:31,799 touchdowns a show for and that is where you really don't have the helium to 126 00:08:31,840 --> 00:08:35,440 produce much better than a wide receiver three, which is the exact category that 127 00:08:35,480 --> 00:08:39,600 Goblin fell into. That does make it three consecutive one thousand yard receiving campaigns 128 00:08:39,679 --> 00:08:43,440 For Chris Godwin, the issue is his TV production. I just alluded to 129 00:08:43,480 --> 00:08:46,320 it five three and two over that span of time, making him reliant upon 130 00:08:46,399 --> 00:08:50,720 said counting stats to be fantasy relevant. And if there's ever a dip and 131 00:08:50,799 --> 00:08:54,679 catches a yardage, Godwin is barely going to be in the flex radar Evans 132 00:08:54,720 --> 00:08:58,399 he's locked in as the wide receiver one Bobert Shad White will maintain a receiving 133 00:08:58,480 --> 00:09:01,399 role. Tampa Bay is also reported high on Trey Palmer, who show glimpses 134 00:09:01,480 --> 00:09:07,480 of not stardom, but at least starter quality talent last season, and that 135 00:09:07,559 --> 00:09:11,840 means Goblin could at some point become expendable or an afterthought to the offense without 136 00:09:11,919 --> 00:09:13,759 OC. Dave Canalis at the Helm, which I guess mentioned, is now 137 00:09:13,799 --> 00:09:18,799 the head coach in Carolina instead. Enter Liam Cohen. He's the new OC, 138 00:09:18,960 --> 00:09:20,919 and he actually previously worked with Baker Mayfield in twenty twenty two as the 139 00:09:22,000 --> 00:09:26,320 La RAMSOC when Baker lashed down there towards the end of the season. I've 140 00:09:26,360 --> 00:09:28,919 long been a proponent and fan of Chris Gobwin, so him being a sunk 141 00:09:28,960 --> 00:09:33,600 cost it pains men't even have this conversation former third rounder out of Penn State 142 00:09:33,639 --> 00:09:37,840 ack to twenty seventeen. His college film was extraordinary. I simply fear that 143 00:09:37,879 --> 00:09:41,960 he's nearing the end of his value life cycle for dimson purposes and is approaching, 144 00:09:41,000 --> 00:09:43,720 if not already, in that sunk cost territory or a point of no 145 00:09:43,840 --> 00:09:48,360 return. So look to pivot off of him or exit at a price. 146 00:09:48,480 --> 00:09:52,080 I'd say most is early mid second and super flex or a late first and 147 00:09:52,120 --> 00:09:54,039 one quarterback leagues, but based on all the hype in this year's class, 148 00:09:54,039 --> 00:09:58,320 you might have to settle for that mid to late second, which doesn't sound 149 00:09:58,399 --> 00:10:01,120 all that optimal. Basically, long story short, if you have Chris Gobin, 150 00:10:01,159 --> 00:10:03,120 you're a contender. He could be viewed as a hold, but if 151 00:10:03,159 --> 00:10:07,759 you're middle of the packer rebuilding, you need to strong consider exiting before it's 152 00:10:07,759 --> 00:10:11,480 too late. At his best, Goblin finishes the PPR wide Receiver two in 153 00:10:11,519 --> 00:10:15,480 twenty nineteen. Otherwise, he's performed as a wide receiver sixty seven, twenty 154 00:10:15,559 --> 00:10:18,480 nine, thirty one, sixteen nineteen, and twenty nine last season as a 155 00:10:18,480 --> 00:10:24,360 pro. That's borderline wide receiver two three value with a downward trend in stock, 156 00:10:24,720 --> 00:10:26,639 so at peak, he was a top five wide out, but all 157 00:10:26,679 --> 00:10:31,000 their campaigns again to the answer to the League of sixty seven, twenty nine, 158 00:10:31,120 --> 00:10:33,080 thirty one, sixteen nineteen to twenty nine, he's not a wide receiver 159 00:10:33,120 --> 00:10:37,759 one. He really hasn't been outside of twenty nineteen as wide receiver two and 160 00:10:37,840 --> 00:10:41,519 even last year on the wide Receiver three map. So don't overvalue Goblin because 161 00:10:41,559 --> 00:10:45,799 Baker's back with Tampa Bay. There's a lot of moving pieces in this offense. 162 00:10:45,919 --> 00:10:48,720 Goblin is no longer the focal point of it. Time for a quick 163 00:10:48,759 --> 00:10:52,399 break. I'll be back with two more sunk costs to describe in Dynasty break 164 00:10:52,399 --> 00:10:56,120 down what to do with them Before that, don't forget if you want access 165 00:10:56,120 --> 00:10:58,440 to a bonus episode per week, unlimited direct messages for any questions you have, 166 00:10:58,559 --> 00:11:01,879 as well as fifty five yeer up percent off all roster calls, then 167 00:11:01,919 --> 00:11:07,120 Patreon is a spot to be link in my bio of all social media counts 168 00:11:07,120 --> 00:11:09,480 al joined as well as in the show notes of every podcast episode. Even 169 00:11:09,519 --> 00:11:13,759 simpler Patreon dot com Patreon mobile app. It's only five dollars per month to 170 00:11:13,799 --> 00:11:18,159 the minimum right now, great time to become a member. You'll get access 171 00:11:18,240 --> 00:11:20,600 immediately to my pre draft rankings quarterback, running back, wide receiver, all 172 00:11:20,600 --> 00:11:26,080 published episode and tiered form Google sheets tight end this week, and then a 173 00:11:26,120 --> 00:11:28,720 top fifty next week. It's the only spot you'll find my pre draft in 174 00:11:28,799 --> 00:11:33,759 post draft Regie rankings, as well as in season veteran plus Ricky rankings combined 175 00:11:33,080 --> 00:11:35,960 for only five bucks. It's a good deal. Don't miss out once again. 176 00:11:35,960 --> 00:11:39,919 It's Patreon dot com. All the links in my social media or podcast 177 00:11:41,000 --> 00:11:46,960 bios be right back after that quick break. Christian Watson comes to mind as 178 00:11:46,960 --> 00:11:50,600 the sunk cost twenty five in May. Still relatively young, he's under contract 179 00:11:50,600 --> 00:11:54,679 with Green Bands Will twenty twenty six. A former second round pick out North 180 00:11:54,720 --> 00:11:58,799 Kota, States in twenty twenty two, a lack of availability with soft tissue 181 00:11:58,799 --> 00:12:03,759 injuries has cost while series playing time during his rookie and software NFL campaigns. 182 00:12:03,000 --> 00:12:07,360 It is now legitimately up for debates who Green Bay's most valuable wide receiver is 183 00:12:07,399 --> 00:12:11,279 to roster and dynasty, between Christian Watson, Jayden Reed Heck, even Romeo 184 00:12:11,360 --> 00:12:16,840 Dobbs or d'antavion Wicks at cost, because cost is everything when you're comparing wideouts 185 00:12:16,879 --> 00:12:20,320 in the same team. Sometimes the cheaper asset is better than overspending on someone 186 00:12:20,360 --> 00:12:24,159 like Watson or Reed Anyway, twenty twenty two, Watson delivered a forty one 187 00:12:24,320 --> 00:12:28,720 six' eleven and seven log fourteen point nine yus per ketch on sixty six targets 188 00:12:28,720 --> 00:12:33,360 as a PPR wide receiver forty one lackluster. Twenty twenty three was worse twenty 189 00:12:33,440 --> 00:12:35,159 eight four, twenty two and five for fifteen point one years per ketch on 190 00:12:35,200 --> 00:12:39,879 fifty three targets as a PPR wide receiver sixty eight RAND three. Year three 191 00:12:39,159 --> 00:12:43,919 is actually a make up break campaign for the often injured Christian Watson. Sure 192 00:12:45,000 --> 00:12:48,679 Jordan Love and a sending talent, so we want exposure to his pass catchers, 193 00:12:48,720 --> 00:12:52,759 as becoming a desire for most Dynasty enthusiasts. Dilemma is Watson more often 194 00:12:52,759 --> 00:12:58,480 than not comes with a steeper price tag than his peers on Green Bay's wide 195 00:12:58,519 --> 00:13:03,559 out depth charts, because this seems so much higher when in actuality he's managed 196 00:13:03,600 --> 00:13:07,360 to deliver wide receiver four, wid receiver five, or even wide receiver six 197 00:13:07,480 --> 00:13:11,000 numbers. So far as a rookie or sophomore from a fantasy perspective, value, 198 00:13:11,080 --> 00:13:13,960 Christian Watson inside a top one hundred players overall, whether it be super 199 00:13:13,960 --> 00:13:18,440 flex or one quarterback leagues, seems farfetched or risky. Entering his third NFL 200 00:13:18,480 --> 00:13:22,519 season in terms of rookie draft capital, that places him on the early to 201 00:13:22,559 --> 00:13:26,679 mid twenty twenty four second price range, where I simply prefer to hit the 202 00:13:26,679 --> 00:13:28,720 reset button on a player, clean slate, clean bill of health, and 203 00:13:28,759 --> 00:13:33,360 hopefully be able to provide more consistency alawment durability. That's so key. Availability, 204 00:13:33,440 --> 00:13:37,320 I say it over and over again, is the best ability. From 205 00:13:37,360 --> 00:13:41,559 a fantasy perspective. If you have someone playing sixteen seventeen games, it's better 206 00:13:41,600 --> 00:13:45,080 than perhaps a better talent with a higher ceiling to play as five, six, 207 00:13:45,200 --> 00:13:48,279 seven, eight games. You need consistency week in, week out for 208 00:13:48,360 --> 00:13:52,279 your lineup. It's worth noting that Christian Watson plans to undergo offseason medical testing 209 00:13:52,320 --> 00:13:56,080 to determine why he's battled reoccurring hamstering injuries in the NFL. To me, 210 00:13:56,559 --> 00:14:01,080 that sounds like the definition of a red flag, and diet or training methods 211 00:14:01,120 --> 00:14:07,879 are possible solutions. But a player seeking additional help or resources because of soft 212 00:14:07,879 --> 00:14:09,279 tissue issues, to me, means that they're not going to go away, 213 00:14:09,360 --> 00:14:13,600 and it was also an issue for him in college. So Christian Watson is 214 00:14:13,600 --> 00:14:16,840 someone I'm easily fading in Dynasty unless the price is a steal. I'm talking 215 00:14:18,000 --> 00:14:20,000 a late second or third. At that point, sure it's worth the theoretical 216 00:14:20,080 --> 00:14:24,879 upside sunk costs territories approaching, especially with the emergence of Jayden Reed and all 217 00:14:24,879 --> 00:14:28,600 of the movie pieces in the Packers offense. Even without Aaron Jones, you 218 00:14:28,639 --> 00:14:33,000 know Josh Jacobs, who's a workhorse, the wide receivers, Reed, Dobbs, 219 00:14:33,159 --> 00:14:37,799 Wicks, Melton tight Ends, Luke Muskrave, Tooker, Kraft. The 220 00:14:37,879 --> 00:14:41,159 bottom line is that if Watson is his time, there are replacement options ready 221 00:14:41,240 --> 00:14:45,840 willing to be as good or better. And that's what's so dangerous about investing 222 00:14:45,879 --> 00:14:48,080 a premium into Watson in twenty twenty four, and then last, but not 223 00:14:48,240 --> 00:14:52,279 least, perhaps the most controversial name. That's why I saved it perhaps best 224 00:14:52,279 --> 00:14:54,240 for last. It's justin Herbert hear me out. He turned twenty six a 225 00:14:54,279 --> 00:14:58,279 few weeks ago, so as a quarterback, that's a lot to look forward 226 00:14:58,320 --> 00:15:01,360 to in terms of career. Arc underwent surgery in December of last season to 227 00:15:01,440 --> 00:15:05,679 address a fracture of right index finger, which is a throwing hand. We 228 00:15:05,759 --> 00:15:09,519 knew that the end of his twenty twenty three campaign was near after he suffered 229 00:15:09,519 --> 00:15:13,200 that ailment. He was the quarterback seventeen last year, six point the pet 230 00:15:13,279 --> 00:15:16,480 in touchdown leagues, three thousand, one hundred and thirty four yards passing, 231 00:15:16,519 --> 00:15:20,600 twenty touchdown seven picks, sixty five point one completion percentage rate for six point 232 00:15:20,679 --> 00:15:24,080 nine yard press attempt, and fifty two two twenty eight and three as a 233 00:15:24,159 --> 00:15:28,559 rusher. His previous Fantasy finishes are quarterback nine twenty twenty, Quarterback two twenty 234 00:15:28,600 --> 00:15:31,720 twenty one, and quarterback eleven twenty twenty two. So that was three straight 235 00:15:31,799 --> 00:15:33,759 quarterback one finishes in a twelve team league, and then last year was a 236 00:15:33,840 --> 00:15:39,039 quarterback two due to injury and missing some time. Herbert's talent isn't in question. 237 00:15:39,159 --> 00:15:41,080 Instead, it's the departure of Keenan Allen to the Bears, Mike Williams 238 00:15:41,159 --> 00:15:46,080 the Jets, Austin Eckler to Washington, and Gerald Everett to Chicago, not 239 00:15:46,159 --> 00:15:50,519 to mention the most important factor that being new head coach Jim Harbaugh, who 240 00:15:50,559 --> 00:15:54,279 is as run focused as it gets, along with O C. Greg Roman, 241 00:15:54,600 --> 00:15:58,720 who is also an old school established a run offensive mind, expect Herbert's 242 00:15:58,720 --> 00:16:02,200 passing volume to decrease cosiderably in twenty twenty four compared to his career norms or 243 00:16:02,240 --> 00:16:06,320 totals to dates of five ninety five, six seventy two, six ninety nine 244 00:16:06,360 --> 00:16:08,399 and four forty six per year. A lack of passing volume is going to 245 00:16:08,559 --> 00:16:12,720 undoubtedly lower his floor and ceiling in fantasy. So unless Herbert sees an increase 246 00:16:14,000 --> 00:16:15,600 conversely in rushing output, it's fair to question if he's even going to be 247 00:16:15,639 --> 00:16:19,120 a quarterback one or top twelve option at his position Under Jim Harball and Greg 248 00:16:19,200 --> 00:16:23,000 Rohman. His annual rushing logs since twenty twenty are fifty five, two thirty 249 00:16:23,000 --> 00:16:26,399 four and five sixty three, three h two and three fifty four for one 250 00:16:26,519 --> 00:16:30,679 forty seven and last year fifty two two twenty eight three. That's a baseline 251 00:16:30,759 --> 00:16:34,080 or average of fifty six rushes for two hunred twenty seven yards and two touchdowns. 252 00:16:34,440 --> 00:16:37,720 That's not going to get it done if the passing volume doesn't increase or 253 00:16:37,759 --> 00:16:41,039 in this case, remains status quote. It as a matter of how much 254 00:16:41,159 --> 00:16:45,840 decreases under Harbaugh. With that context, in mine quarterbacks I'd rather roster over 255 00:16:45,960 --> 00:16:48,720 Justin Herbert in Dynasty now include Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts, 256 00:16:48,799 --> 00:16:52,159 Laar Jackson, j Stroud, Joe Burrow, Kyler Murray, Trevor Lawrence, 257 00:16:52,320 --> 00:16:56,399 Caleb Williams, Anthony Richardson, possibly even Dak Prescott, even with the Offield 258 00:16:56,399 --> 00:17:00,720 allegations. That's a little risky. We don't know the details there. Jordan 259 00:17:00,759 --> 00:17:04,960 Love, even Jaden Daniels. That's how fearful I am that Justin Herbert is 260 00:17:06,000 --> 00:17:08,759 going to be basically put into a game manager role. If you're concerned about 261 00:17:08,839 --> 00:17:12,599 JJ McCarthy as a prospect, that is what Jim Harball is going to do 262 00:17:12,640 --> 00:17:18,319 to Justin Herbert. He's going to become more of a facilitator than outright game 263 00:17:18,440 --> 00:17:22,720 changer. Especially with the current supporting cast of Gus Edwards. You have at 264 00:17:22,720 --> 00:17:27,000 wide receiver Joshua Palmer, Quentin Johnston at tight end, a combination of Will 265 00:17:27,039 --> 00:17:33,319 Disley and other veteran talents. It's not a great infrastructure or environment for Herbert 266 00:17:33,359 --> 00:17:37,079 to thrive, let alone any other player rookie included, unless it's someone like 267 00:17:37,079 --> 00:17:41,359 Thelik Neighbors Romaduonzay. Then potentially there'll be some appealing upside or a stack. 268 00:17:41,759 --> 00:17:45,160 Right now, Herbert carries more name recognition than actual value. Take advantage of 269 00:17:45,200 --> 00:17:49,079 his previous success in your league if members don't realize his stock is trading the 270 00:17:49,079 --> 00:17:53,519 wrong direction. Again, it's not a talent issue, but sometimes understanding scheme 271 00:17:53,640 --> 00:17:59,119 and coaching tendencies like Harbaugh and in this case Roman is more important than a 272 00:17:59,119 --> 00:18:02,240 player's talent. And keep in mind that Herbert is under contract till twenty thirty, 273 00:18:02,240 --> 00:18:04,200 so there's no clear escape outside of a trade, which seems unlikely for 274 00:18:04,240 --> 00:18:08,039 a franchise cornerstone a quarterback, just based on the amount due or how much 275 00:18:08,039 --> 00:18:12,839 you would alter the course of basically giving up the farm a future draft capital 276 00:18:12,880 --> 00:18:17,839 to lock in a quarterback of his level. So basically we're in't the situation 277 00:18:17,960 --> 00:18:19,519 of if you have Herbert in a supervis league, if he's your quarterback one, 278 00:18:19,680 --> 00:18:22,400 I'd be concerned. If it's your quarterback two, it's not as bad. 279 00:18:22,440 --> 00:18:25,920 At least you have an anchor at quarterback one. But in a one 280 00:18:26,000 --> 00:18:27,799 quarterback league, rolling out justin Herbert in twenty twenty four is going to be 281 00:18:27,839 --> 00:18:30,960 a roller coasters you going to be Peaks Valleys. The volume will decrease, 282 00:18:32,279 --> 00:18:34,920 in part due to a new coaching staff along with a weaker supporting cast than 283 00:18:34,920 --> 00:18:38,200 what we've been used to during his time with the Chargers. Two dates that 284 00:18:38,240 --> 00:18:42,000 will do it. Hope you enjoyed my five sunk costs in Dinasha League's episode 285 00:18:42,000 --> 00:18:47,039 once again. Those were Nick Chubb, Miles Sanders, Chris Godwin, Christian 286 00:18:47,039 --> 00:18:49,279 Watson, and Justin Herbert. As a recap am, I saying, immediately 287 00:18:49,319 --> 00:18:53,200 sell all these players at a discount. No, it's about finding the pulse 288 00:18:53,279 --> 00:18:57,880 of your league mates if they're aware of the situations where these roles could decrease 289 00:18:57,920 --> 00:19:03,799 and or becoming at risk of approaching sun cost territory. I'd rather have seventy 290 00:19:03,799 --> 00:19:06,799 five cents on a dollar than fifty to twenty five cents. And if that 291 00:19:06,839 --> 00:19:08,440 means cashing out to your early and you're too late, so be it. 292 00:19:08,720 --> 00:19:12,559 You have to be active and ahead, be proactive, not reactive in dynasty 293 00:19:12,599 --> 00:19:15,480 in these five names, I think fit that criteria to a t. Thank 294 00:19:15,480 --> 00:19:18,799 you all for listening. Don't forget to take advantage of my seventeen percent off 295 00:19:18,880 --> 00:19:25,000 roster call promotion before that expires until next time. This is the Dynostaur checking 296 00:19:25,000 --> 00:19:26,559 out. I'll be back next week with a brand new episode. Talk to 297 00:19:26,559 --> 00:19:48,880 you then see you.