No one country benefited more from globalization than Jina, though of course, if
that's the case, we're clearly going through a deglobalization phase now in the world,
so no country should have to pay more of a price because of that
than China. So again, like I said, this year, we'll probably
play a crucial role. There is concern now that they are in such a
deflationary spiral that they should be cutting rates and other things. You're listening to
Carrie Lutz's Financial Survival Network, where you get valuable information you just can't find
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are listening to and watching the Financial Survival Network. I'm your host, Carrie
Lutz. Well, it's exactly midway through January of twenty twenty four. We're
a touch of base with our old friend Peter Grandich. Bind Tim at Petergranditch
dot com. The links in the show notes. If you've got a question,
comment on our conversation, or anything else, should be an email at
kl at Carrie LUTs dot com. Peter, great to have you back on
the show. So you're looking into the future there, and what you're seeing
is pretty bleak, isn't it. Well? Yeah, I began the year
by stating that we basically now have a true perfect storm of social, political,
and economic woes, that it still still can be as far as three
to five years away from fully being implemented. But once it is, it's
called a rival or surpassed what the Great Depression impact America to And so it's
not a bullish stance. I believe philosophy is its preservation of capital, not
capital appreciation. That's important now. All right, So you're more concerned about
return of investment rather than return on investment, correct? All right? So
how do you do that? Like many of you out there are confused,
not sure what to do. The market's been good for so long and you
think it's just going to keep going, But what if it's not. Well,
that's a key point, Kerry. The vast majority of Americans are living
in a lifestyle at least one, if not two levels above what they're truly
their finances support, and everybody says how they do it. It's simple they
borrow, and they also have taken on a lifestyle that almost demands above average
returns. And for a lot of years, as you and I spoke,
even before we started, the markets managed to do that. Not only has
become harder and harder, the people that would aid it no longer have a
free reign to do so. And that's the FED. The FED is really
not got to be in a position to just pop mo money at free will,
as it has in the past, and so I think the first thing
one should do is is to look at how they're living and and see if
budget wise they can live with less is more. That's been my philosophy for
almost twenty years. I could live at a higher lifestyle, I could have
a bigger car, I could have a bigger home, and some people might
feel that there'd be more joy in that, but it also in this lifestyle
that I chosen to live, makes it more at peace, no debt,
easy to meet my monthly needs based on what I do. So I think
that's the first order. Once that's done, then of course there are places
where I don't want to be, and clearly there's no question that even if
you want to be in general, equities. The US stock market is so
more overvalued than compatible companies outside the US that if you need to want to
be in general equals these at least look outside the US. The US market
is not only frauthy, it's highly highly valued. Yeah, well, it's
been overvalued for a long time. And what did demand say? The market
can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. Right, yeah, with
Kerry, you know. So in twenty twenty one, I made the decision
that by the end of the year to be out of general equity's not related
to resources, and suggests it to others, including in our planning group here
in the US that we deal with US residents the same and people said,
oh my god, what would you do? And I said, I would
want it rather own gold. And of course gold is always going to be
hated by the financial service industry. They treated like kryptonite. And now it
has even a new group of haters, the crypto nuts. But the bottom
line is in the last two years, even with the rebound that the stock
market had last year, gold still outperformed it. But where it really gets
interesting, and then you do and I go back a long time. Nine
out of our one hundred investment advisors. They'll tell you, oh, stock
since the new letting began clearly outperformed gold, when the fact is gold since
January first, two thousand has even outperformed the stock market. So I still
think there's places, but I'm more focused on preserving one and a half versus
trying to dramatically increase it. And one of the places where I believe preservation
of capital can be, you know, pretty well counted on it, and
that's the gold market right now, right, all right, that's very true
what you say. We know, like golden has gone up tenfold basically since
two thousand, right, yeah, it's gone up about almost seven hundred percent,
while the S and P five the S and P five hundred, any
if you reinvested the dividends is less than that. And yet most people would
say that the stock market absolutely greatly outperformed gold. Then listen. The interesting
about the gold market now always two reasons, one fundamental ones technical. The
fundamental is we've never seen such massive physical buy in by the people that have
the money, the central banks. And then technically we're approaching levels now where
it never really traded before. And therefore, once we get above, and
I think the round number is critical here, the twenty one hundred. Once
people start to hear a twenty one one hundred and something goal price, it's
going to bring in all sorts of momentum and there won't be that resistance of
people. Oh, I'm just glad I got back to here. Let me
get out. And that's where I really think that we accelerate. And I
think we're going to do that in the first quarter of this year. I
think we're going to We're going to print and stay above twenty one hundred,
and that's really going to accelerate the interest in the goal market. So what
about the impact of cryptocurrencies on precious metals. Do you think there's been an
impact? Oh, no question about it. And where the impact has been
is not so much in the physical market, but the things related to particularly
mining shares and particularly the junior resource mark. That market clearly has been impacted
in two ways, not only by people buying crypto currencies versus junior resource stocks,
but also the way that companies used to be able to market to individual
investors has changed dramatically. There's very few financial advisors left in North America that
builds book of businesses around junior resource stocks because commissions are next to nothing or
nothing. And therefore, when you used to get one financial advisor interested in
your company and three or four hundred of their clients came in, now you
got to get to those same three hundred and four hundred that they still exist
almost on a one to one basis. So part of the junior resource market
and mining shares in general has been impacted by crypto, but not so much
to physical market. The physical market, particularly outside of the United States,
is growing stronger. We're witnessing so much more interest now coming out of Asia.
We're also wishing, we thankfully seeing Asia take more control of the goal
market and the market. That's why the raids that happened in the paper market
steel here are not long lasting like they used to be. Right, And
it looks like every time gold now is getting ready to break two thousand,
we have some geopolitical incident that takes place. Have you noticed that too,
Yeah, but you know, here we are at two thousand and something and
for many days now, Harry, And it was a number that seen just
six months ago or twelve months ago, elusive that we couldn't even get to
that. It's a market that I like to describe. It's the Rodney Danger
field of investment. It's no respect and it is before dreading really well.
And I think it's only got to accelerate into a much stronger market which is
going to seem more widespread participation. So you know, we talk about the
Rodney Danger Field of the investment world. You know, you and I dating
ourselves a bit. We both remember really well, I actually met him once,
and you know, it's it's going to change for sure. But like
just the crypto has kind of taken all of Gold's luster and run with it,
and you have to wonder, you know, is there something more behind
it than just people having an infatuation with cryptos or is there is there something
maybe nefarious or I hate to be a conspiracy theorist, but you know,
as it turns out, us conspiracy theorists have been right way more than we've
been wrong here, Peter, No, I agree with that, But you
know what's not what's lost in this. I don't want to call it discussion
because the crypto people don't want to have a discussion. It's not their way
or the highway. But so much money has been lost in crypto when you
look outside of just bitcoin and you look at just what happened in the last
three years, so much money has been lost there. And also people like
to bring up, well, look how much bitcoin is up. It's true,
but there weren't a lot of people participating when it was at those low
prices. Much of the public came in at these levels we're at now or
even higher, and that's just typical of a distribution pattern. And I don't
see the embracing you know, carried the first go around in bigcoin a few
years ago. It was all pushed about how everybody was going to use it
instead of money, and every time somebody made an announcement master car or somebody's
going to eat it was that was another bullish reason that never took hold.
Now, the technology hasn't changed. It's still in a very hard technology for
all the things it's supposed to do. And what's really really interesting is you
have a guy like Larry Frank who just a few years ago called it like
every name in the book wouldn't touch it with a ten foot poll. The
technology has change. Bitcoin now is the same as it was a few years
ago, but suddenly he thinks it's the greatest thing since sliced bread white because
they want to make money trading it through you know, exchange, trade of
funds and so forth and so on. So I just continue to see a
lot of hope and conjecture, but I don't see the reality and the usage
of it, other than the fact that also in you and I have been
around the block this mania that's in it. There's no room for discussion.
And when people are that caught up on anything, on any one thing and
have no room to hear ad anything other than it can only go up,
and it's the best thing in the world. You have to avoid or actually
sell those type of things, no matter what they were. If they were
saying the same things about gold now that they say about bitcoin, I would
get out of gold. It's so true. It reminds you of the political
discussion or lack thereof, that's taking place in the country and the world right
now. There's no room for discussion about anything anymore, is there. I
think that's part of the crisis that's coming. I want to switch gears a
little bit talk about China. Initially it looked like China was going to run
the world but now China's economy is collapsing so fast. They're built and road
initiative, which many have called the bribe and rape initiative, is falling flat
on its face. And their infrastructure that they we're so proud of spent trillions
of dollars over the past thirty forty years seems to be collapsing faster than their
stock markets. Is there a way back for China? Is this just disinformation
being thrown out there by the West, or is there some truth to it?
Well, we're old enough to remember that a lot of the descriptions of
China in recent years, whether the description is given to Japan in the seventies
and eighties, they were going to be to take it over the world.
They were going to become the economic powerhouse and all. And of course nothing
is further from the truth. Now for them, I think we're still a
state. The verdict is still out on China. I do think you bring
up an important part that China is not the slam dunk nor and this is
very important if we believe on this coming financial crisis. Let's not forget that
back in two thousand and eight, they were one of the reasons the whole
world didn't collapse because they were strong enough economically to prevent and help support the
stabilization, if that's what you want to call it. That time. We
never rided ourselves of the financial problems at that point in time. But they're
not in that same position to do that now. Although the flummation of the
bricks at all, of that is going to be something again that's going to
be negative for the US and negative for the dollar at all. But I
think the jury is still out. I do think the interesting thing that's happening
there is there is a switch to consume the driven economy versus an exporting economy.
And the more that they do that, the more the people there want
more of twenty first century lifestyle. They don't want to live under communist rules.
So we may be shocked to surprise that China as we know it will
still exist, but the ion fist that runs it may not be able to
keep running it in the way they did. But I still think the jury's
out. Carry But you're right, this should be far more concerned about China
now than we just had a few years ago. Yeah, I just find
it interesting, you know, they seem to be in a protracted, multifascined
collapse, much like the West, but it looks like it's unfolding faster.
And in two thousand and eight, yeah, they jumped in and they printed
money and you know, use their dollar reserves to help bolster their domestic demand,
which maybe did mitigate the collapse a bit, but perhaps they were just
putting off the inevitable. But this multifaceted moral, ethical, infrastructure, economic,
stock market. You know, we could argue all day about the origins
of a certain pandemic, but it becomes more and more obvious by the day.
It originated there with the help of certain individuals in our own power structure.
But it looks like they're getting their come up ins here in terms of
just this collapse. I mean, you look at these to food drag construction
projects. They have their high speed rail, and it just seems like they
cut a lot of corners to get where they are today, and maybe they
cut too many. Well, it's very odd to look anywhere around the world
and see strength economic or what have you. Whether you look in Europe,
good pots of ases there are. You know, obviously indiers coming a much
lower base, so it can look like it's growing but one of the things
that again has crippled in a sense a good part of the world is the
amount of debt that the world has taken on. And nowhere is that more
important now in the US with thirty four trillion in debt going to fifty trillion,
hay in our interests expence is going to become a major concern over the
next couple of years. So again, you brought up one of many,
many reasons not to be very enthusiastics about general equity markets, China being one
of them. Yeah, yeah, soon, and that demand that they're trying
to facilitate through domestic shifted from international. You see hundreds of Western companies and
Japan Korean companies for that matter. Asian companies are abandoning China are decoupling.
And I don't know if it has to do with the global health issue that
they unleashed on the planet or whether there is just natural cyclical happenings there,
but I do find it kind of interesting. It reminds me of the tale
of Japan thirty years ago. They were going to take over the world.
Then you know they've had the lost couple of decades here, Peter, Yeah,
I spoke about that before, and no one country benefited more from globalization
than China. So of course, if that's the case, we're clearly going
through a deglobalization phase now in the world, so no country should have to
pay more of a price because of that than China. So again, like
I said, this year will probably play a crucial role. There is concern
now that they are in such a deflationary spiral that they should be cutting rates
and other things. Last night they didn't do it in one of their bank
rates, which gaves some people more concern, and the were even weaker.
So it is something, as you noted, very worth watching in the coming
weeks and months. It could very well just wind up adding a fuel to
the fire, right absolutely all right, Peter, We still find you at
Peter Grandage dot com. Go sign up there for Peter's blog. If you
got any questions or comments, kl at Carrie LUTs dot com. You'll find
a link to Peter's site in the show notes to this interview on Financial Survival
Network dot com. Make sure you sign up for your free newsletter. Peter.
Great getting in touch with you again, talking to you, and we'll
definitely be talking to you soon again. Thank you Gary much carry thanks for
listening to Carrie Letz's Financial Survival Network, your solution to today's trying times.
For the latest, go to Financial Survivalnetwork dot com. Financial Survival Network now
more than ever,