The decision making process. An understanding of the decision making process provides the pilot
with the foundation for developing ad M and SRM skills. While some situations such
as engine failure, require an immediate pilot response using established procedures, there is
usually time during a flight to analyze any changes that occur, gather information,
and assess risk before reaching a decision. Risk management and risk intervention is much
more than the simple definitions of the term might suggest. Risk management and risk
intervention are decision making processes designed to systematically identify hazards, assess the degree of
risk, and determine the best course of action. These processes involve the identification
of hazards, followed by assessments of the risks, analysis of the controls,
making control decisions using the controls, and monitoring the results. The steps leading
to this decision constitute a decision making process. Three models of a structured framework
for problem solving and decision making are the five P the three P, the
three with Care and Team, the O O, DA and Decide models.
They provide assistance in organizing the decision process. All these models have been identified
as helpful to the single pilot in organizing Critical Decisions sr M and the five
P Check. Sr M is about how to gather information, analyze it,
and make decisions. Learning how to identify problems, analyze the information, and
make informed and timely decisions is not as straightforward as the training involved in learning
specific maneuvers. Learning how to judge a situation and how to think in the
endless variety of situations encountered, while flying out in the real world, is
more difficult. There is no one right answer in ADM. Rather, each
pilot is expected to analyze each situation in light of experienced level, personal minimums,
and current physical and mental readiness level and make his or her own decision.
SRM sounds good on paper, but it requires a way for pilots to
understand and use it in their daily flights. One practical application is called the
five pas refer to Figure seventeen Dash seven. The five pis consists of the
plan, the plane, the pilot, the passengers, and the programming.
Each of these areas consists of a set of challenges and opportunities that face a
single pilot, and each can substantially increase or decrease the risk of successfully completing
the flight based on the pilot's ability to make informed and timely decisions. The
five p's are used to evaluate the pilot's current situation at key decision points during
the flight or when an emergency arises. These decision points include preflight, pre
takeoff, hourly or at the midpoint of the flight, predescent, and just
prior to the final approach fix or for visual Flight Rules v FR operations,
just prior to entering the traffic pattern. The five p's are based on the
idea that pilots have essentially five variables that impact his or her environment and that
can cause the pilot to make a single critical decision or several less critical decisions
that, when added together, can create a critical outcome. These variables are
the plan, the plane, the pilot, the passengers, and the programming.
This concept stems from the belief that current decision making models tended to be
reactionary in nature. A change has to occur and be detected to drive a
risk management decision by the pilot. For instance, many pilots use risk management
sheet that are filled out by the pilot prior to take off. These form
a catalog of risks that may be encountered that day and turn them into numerical
values. If the total exceeds a certain level, the flight is altered or
canceled. Informal research shows that while these are useful documents for teaching risk factors,
they are almost never used outside of formal training programs. The five P
concept is an attempt to take the information contained in those sheets and in other
available models and use it. The five P concept relies on the pilot to
adopt a scheduled review of the critical variables at points in the flight where decisions
are most likely to be effective. For instance, the easiest point to cancel
the flight due to bad weather is before the pilot and passengers walk out the
door and load the aircraft. So the first decision point is preflight in the
flight planning room, where all the information is readily ailable to make a sound
decision, and where communication and fixed base operator FBO services are readily available to
make alternate travel plans. The second easiest point in the flight to make a
critical safety decision is just prior to takeoff. Few pilots have ever had to
make an emergency takeoff. While the point of the five P check is to
help the pilot fly, the correct application of the five p before takeoff is
to assist in making a reason to go no go decision based on all the
information available. That decision will usually be to go with certain restrictions and changes,
but may also be a no go. The key point is that these
two points in the process of flying are critical go no go points on each
and every flight. The third place to review the five piece is at the
midpoint of the flight. Often pilots may wait until the Automated Terminal Information Service
ADIS is in range to check weather. Yet at this point in the flight,
many good options have already passed behind the aircraft and pilot. Additionally,
fatigue and low altitude hypoxia serve to rob the pilot of much of his or
her energy by the end of a long and tiring flight day. This leads
to a transition from a decision making mode to an acceptance mode on the part
of the pilot. If the flight is longer than two hours, the five
PEA checks should be conducted hourly. The last two decision points are just prior
to descent into the terminal area and just prior to the final approach fix or
at VFR just prior to entering the traffic pattern. As preparations for landing commence.
Most pilots execute approaches with the expectation that they will land out of the
approach every time. A healthier approach requires the pilot to assume that changing conditions
the five peas again will cause the pilot to divert or execute the mist approach
on every approach. This keeps the pile alert to all manner of conditions that
may increase risk and threaten the safe conduct of the flight. Diverting from cruise
altitude saves fuel, allows unhurried use of the autopilot, and is less reactive
in nature. Diverting from the final approach fix, while more difficult, still
allows the pilot to plan and coordinate better rather than executing a futile mist approach.
Let's look at a detailed discussion of each of the five pas. The
plan. The plan can also be called the mission or the task. It
contains the basic elements of cross country planning, weather, route, fuel publications,
currency, etc. The plan should be reviewed and updated several times during
the course of the flight. A delayed takeoff due to maintenance, fast moving
weather, and a short notice TFR may all radically alter the plan. The
plan is not only about the flight plan, but also all the events that
surround the flight and allow the pilot to accomplish the mission. The plan is
always being updated and modified, and is especially responsive to changes in the other
four remaining ps. If for no other reason, the five feet check reminds
the pilot that the day's flight plan is real life and subject to change at
any time. Obviously, weather is a huge part of any plan. The
addition of data link weather information gives the advanced avionics pilot a real advantage in
inclement weather, but only if the pilot is trained to retrieve and evaluate to
weather in real time without sacrificing situational awareness. And of course, weather information
should drive a decision, even if that decision is to continue on the current
plan. Pilots of aircraft without data link weather should get updated, whether in
flight through a Flight Service Station FSS and or flight watch the plane. Both
the plan and the plane are fairly familiar to most pilots. The plane consists
of the usual array of mechanical and cosmetic issues that every aircraft pilot, owner
or operator can identify. With the advent of advanced avionics, the plane has
expanded to include database currency, automation status and emergency backup systems that were unknown
a few years ago. Much has been written about single pilot IFR flight,
both with and without an autopilot. While this is a personal decision, it
is just that a decision low IFR in a non autopilot equipped aircraft may depend
on several of the other pas to be discussed. Pilot proficiency, currency,
and fatigue are among them. The pilot flying, especially when used for business
transportation, can expose the pilot to high altitude flying, long distance and endurance
and more challenging weather. An advanced avionics aircraft, simply due to their advanced
capabilities, can expose a pilot to even more of these stresses. The traditional
i M Safe checklist see page seventeen, Dash six is a good start.
The combination of late night pilot fatigue and the effects of sustained flight above five
thousand feet may cause pilots to become less discerning, less critical of information,
less decisive, and more compliant and accepting. Just as the most critical portion
of the flight approaches, for instance a night instrument approach in the weather after
a four hour flight, the pilot's guard is down the most the five p
process helps a pilot recognize the physiological situation at the end of the flight before
takeoff, and continues to update personal conditions as the flight progresses. Once risks
are identified, the pilot is in an infinitely better place to make alternate plans
that lessen the effect of these factors and provide a safer solution the passengers.
One of the key differences between CRM and sr M is the way passengers interact
with the pilot. The pilot of a highly capable single engine aircraft has entered
into a very personal relationship with the passengers. In fact, the pilot and
passengers sit within an arm's reach all of the time. The desire of the
passengers to make airline connections or important business meetings easily enters into this pilot's decision
making loop. Done in a healthy and open way, this can be a
positive factor. Consider a flight to Dullest Airport and the passengers, both close
friends and business partners, need to get to Washington, d C. For
an important meeting. The weather is fr all the way to southern Virginia then
turns to low I FR as the pilot approach is Dullest. A pilot employing
the five P approach might consider reserving a rental car at an airport in northern
North Carolina or southern Virginia to coincide with a refueling stop. Thus the passengers
have a way to get to Washington, and the pilot has an out to
avoid being pressured into continuing the flight if the conditions do not improve. Passengers
can also be pilots. If no one is designated as pilot in command PC
and unplanned circumstances arise, the decision making styles of several self confident pilots may
come into conflict. Pilots also need to understand that non pilots may not understand
the level of risk involved in the flight. There is an element of risk
in every flight. That is why SRM calls it risk management, not risk
elimination. While a pilot may feel comfortable with the risk present in a night
I FR flight, the passengers may not. A pilot employing SRM should ensure
the passengers are involved in the decision making and given tasks and duties to keep
them busy and involved. If upon factual description of the risk present, the
passengers decide to buy an airline ticket or rent a car, then a good
decision has generally been made. This discussion also allows the pilot to move past
what he or she thinks the passengers want to do and find out what they
actually want to do. This removes self induced pressure from the pilot. The
programming the advanced avionics aircraft adds an entirely new dimension to the way general aviation
aircraft are flown. The electronic instrument displays GPS and autopilot reduced pilot workload in
increased pilot situational awareness. While programming and operation of these devices are fairly simple
and straightforward, unlike the analog instruments they replace, they tend to capture the
pilot's attention and hold it for long periods of time. To avoid this phenomenon,
the pilot should plan in advance when and where the programming for approaches,
route changes, and airport information gathering should be accomplished as well as times it
should not. Pilot familiarity with the equipment, the route, the local air
traffic control environment, and personal capabilities vis vi the automation should drive when,
where and how the automation is programmed and used. The pilot should also consider
what his or her capabilities are In response, to last minute changes of the
approach and the reprogramming required an ability to make large scale changes a reroute,
for instance, while hand flying the aircraft. Since formats are not standardized,
simply moving from one manufacturer's equipment to another should give the pilot pause and require
more conservative planning and decisions. The SRM process is simple. At least five
times before and during the flight, the pilot should review and consider the plan,
the plane, the pilot, the passengers, and the programming and make
the appropriate decision required by the current situation. It is often said that failure
to make a decision is a decision under SRM and the five p's. Even
the decision to make no changes to the current plan is made through a careful
consideration of all the risk factors present. End of Part three of Chapter seventeen.