What is up? What is crack Alacket? What it do? Hardware not
listeners? I am Damp Valley coming at you with another one question episode.
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we can dive into this question, the one I'm really sorting hanging on lately.
What is Colin Sexton worth? Is he underrated? How much is he
worth to the Cavaliers. What is going to be the end result of restricted
free agency for him? I feel like we Look, he's coming back from
a torn meniscus in his left knee, had surgery on that. If you're
the Calves, I get being concerned about where he fits into your team.
You have Karis Lavert. You also saw that you really did miss the type
of offense that he brings during the playoffs. And so I'm puzzled by that
report from Chris Pador. They've essentially offered a three year, forty million dollars
deal. I don't know if that is more indicative of how they view his
fit, how they view him, just value his value as a player overall.
Is it hedging against the injury. If he's going to sign for that
little, he shoul apply, try and get it to be shorter one plus
one or two plus one, hit free agency again after rebooting his value.
We're talking about someone who just missed most of his age twenty three season.
He's not old by any stretch. Maybe even just sign your qualifying offer at
this point and bet on yourself. There's still time. There's the Pacers,
the Spurs, they have cap space. They could throw him an offer sheet.
You could also work out sign and trades base. Your compensation makes it
difficult. It's not impossible. But the central focus here is should is Sexton
getting a raw deal? Yeah? I know you can say that the market
is whatever your market value is, whatever the actual markets willing to pay for
you. Okay, fine, and cap space dried up relatively quickly because they
didn't even really exist around free free agency. This summer business is being held
up by the Kevin Durant and Donovan Mitchell stuff. If the Spurs or Pacers
were going to get in on the Sexton sweep stakes, you have to imagine
that they would do so now. But it also probably speaks to how valuable
Colin Sexton is to the Cavaliers that we haven't heard a bunch of sign and
trade talks like the Calves not being open to that. Maybe they are more
open to it, but they're probably not because Karris Lavert, he's a free
agent after next year extension knowledgeable right now, and Sexton is important to the
team. And so you look at the criticisms of him, and I've listened
to some read some people are quick to say that he just can't be a
league guard. Okay, fucking fine. The Calves need him to be a
league guard. They never have really, but they certainly don't need him to
be one. Now, Darius Farland's there. They brought Ricky Rubio back,
and you also have the on ball skills of Evan Mobley to plumb as well.
You can look at Sexton's defense and say, okay, fine, like
it could be better. He's made places away from the ball, and I
think he could still probably be a pretty good on defender on ball defender,
even though he is on the smaller side. I'm looking at his offense and
Zeklo has phrased it thus Lee he might be the most undervalued or disrespected twenty
four points per game score in NBA history. I don't think that's hyperbole.
And so when you go back too, and you could throw a lot of
what happened in twenty one twenty two out of the equation. But when you
go back look at his twenty twenty twenty one season, in which he played
sixty games, a good amount of seventy two. Yeah, that's fine.
He averaged over twenty four points, averaged just over four assist per game,
and then shot fifty plus percent on twos and thirty seven plus percent on threes.
Here is the list of every single player to meet those benchmarks for an
entire season before they turned twenty five, Jason Tatum in twenty twenty two and
twenty one. Also, ironically, Trey did it this past year. Kevin
Durant did it in twenty twelve, twenty thirteen, Kyrie Irving did it in
twenty sixteen, seventeen. That is it. That is the entire fucking list,
and Sexon and Tatum were the two youngest players in league history to do
it. I know the era is different when you look at the pace or
when you look at the three ball. The names I've just rattled off,
though they've all been since two thy twelve, two thousand and thirteen, We're
not like defying eras here. I'm not saying he's on the level as any
of those players. Every single one of the players I just listen is a
better passer than Colin Sexton. Ironically, Joe Johnson did it in his age
twenty five season, so he just missed the cut. He's not a better
passer than Colin Sexton. I do think, and I want to start with
the passing. I do think like the passing qualms are overblown. There's tunnel
vision on drives. I get it. He's not gonna throw these super complicated
passes. But I think he's gotten a lot better at the kickouts on drives,
and yeah, they're the frequency of those isn't necessarily up, but the
quality of those passes when he's finding three point shooters and you look at some
of the Cavaliers is most common three point shooters in twenty twenty one, Kevin
Durant, Darius Garland, Torian Prince that season, Like these are all guys
that shot better than forty percent from three off passes from Colin Sexton. Dean
Wade actually led the team in three point attempts off of Sexton passes that year,
shot thirty seven point five percent on them. And yes, some of
the average I think has been when you look at that was dragged down just
by like Jetty has been having a ship show of a shooting season then,
and the Nacho Coro still sort of figuring it out. This is someone who
causes defenses to react on drives and passing. It's not the central part of
his game. I need to re embasize that it doesn't need to be.
He can be a secondary creator who is throwing the more than occasional kickout or
even just drop off, and I think, you know he has. We
haven't seen a ton of it just yet, but I feel like he can
have really good two man chemistry with Jared Allen, and we've even sort of
seen like the shuffle passes with him and Rubio on the court together. I
look at his scoring, though, that is an actual, like really important
commodity, and he's not the front scratch scorer who's gonna fire up these off
the dribble jumpers and be super efficient. You can look at his pull up
percentages over the course of his career, they have not been great. In
his rookie season, he hit thirty seven point four percent of his off the
dribble threes, very little volume there though. He has never had an effective
field goal percentage on pull up jumpers higher than forty five. His career highs
forty four point eight twenty nineteen twenty came close to matching that in twenty twenty
twenty one. That's like he's had moments where he's hitting those in between twos
on those off the dribble jumpers, but you're not counting on him to do
the you know, the James Harden step back the Jayson Tatum escape dribble three.
Even what Trey Young is able to do off the dribble, that's also
fine. He scores by himself in other ways, which says nothing of how
valuable he is as someone who just fits in to the larger context of your
offense. And again, I'm willing to throw a lot of what we saw
in twenty twenty twenty two out of the equation new teammates around him, and
it was an eleven game sample size, So I don't know how much to
read into that, or excuse me, I do know, and it's just
I'm not going to read much into it. But when he gets going downhill,
he has like a bunch of just different moves he can use to counter
what the defenses are giving him. He's gotten really good at like going right
and then going back to his left. He is getting really good at passing
guys by off of screens and finishing around the basket. We have seen his
rim frequency go up over the past three years. He's been in the eighty
third percent tile or better in each of the past three seasons, including this
last one. The caveat there when it comes to the volume of his field
goal attempts that are coming at the Rim, and then in each of the
past two years there was that major jump he shot sixty plus percent at the
Rim. In twenty twenty one he had another jump. He was shooting thirty
eight fifty three at the Rim this year, which is seventy two percent before
he was injured. They're real finishing there. Some of them are tough finishes,
but I think he has more speed than people give him credit for in
general, And mind you, a lot of this was coming with sub optimal
spacing for the Calves just in general. Like, yeah, there were certain
lineups where it really worked, but I also like that he did and this
speaks to I think why he can be so valuable. There's more plugin playness
to his offense, and there's the shooting, which I mean, I'll get
to in a midt, but I saw a little bit more in the minutes
that he logged with Ricky Rubio, where the Calves are having him set screens
away from the ball for him to come up and then have a ball screen
set for him, and he's able to go into these quicker actions and attack
and Colin Sexton going downhill matters. His drives have been supremely high volume since
his rookie season. Really, you look at his efficiency on them, they
were not super high to start off. But this is what he's shooting on
drives the past three seasons, including last year, forty seven point six percent,
forty seven point three percent, and fifty percent. That's like, yeah,
his past percentage has peaked around the thirty four to thirty five percent area.
That's actually not bad passing on one third of year drives. His assist
percentage was always on the lower end. I think that probably speaks more.
Yes, there's tunnel vision, but we also need to look at the quality
of talent around him. Last year he turned the ball over a bunch of
those situations. Again in eleven game sample size. Colin Sesson going downhill is
absolutely a threat, and he even has like sort of this little floatoresque game
too, And that's more where he can get it off, you know,
whether he's coming from the side angle or he's going dead on at the basket.
He can get it off over taller guys to fight his size, and
so that's been a big part of his scoring development too. And there's just
a shiftingness to him once he gets in the lane, I think the past,
even last year when he struggled, but looking back at twenty twenty one,
he's done a much better job of just not picking up his dribble or
bailing out too early. And that's open to other decisions a lot of times
for him as a score but also as a passer. If that's your second
or third best playmaker on the team, what is the problem. There is
value there, and then I'm just gonna go like this shooting is it's monstrous
is the word to use for it. Here's what he's shooting on catch and
shoot threes for his career forty four point three percent as a rookie, forty
two point one percent as a sophomore, forty point three percent in twenty twenty
twenty one. Then he was down to twenty three point three percent last season
again eleven games. I am very much of the mind that you have that
number is going to come up, Like, twenty three point three percent can't
be the norm when you're basically at forty two percent or a little bit higher
on catch and shoot threes for your career before that last season again in lea
up the eleven games, when you look at his catch and shoot touch in
general. The only time he in effective field goal percentage below sixty on those
looks. That is so valuable when you're one on a team that still isn't
chock full of great shooters or floor spacers in general. And then two,
you want people who can play off of Caris Lavit now, Darius Garland,
Ricky Rubio. That's why it makes so much sense to have Sexton come off
the bench next to Rubyo is they can play in tandem. Since Sexton's offensive
game is more malleable, he might not have that same captaincy or oversight of
the offense as a Darius Garland, as a Ricky Rubio. You might even
prefer Carris Lavert as a passer. That's fine, but he does so many
other things well on the offensive end, even independent of him being just this
if he unspectacular pull up shooter, and again when you pick the floaters into
that and some of his short mid rangers, like, there's something to plumb
there. He's just not the traditional escape dribble, complicated handle three point shooter.
That's fine. We don't need all of these guys to be that.
So, you know, are you concerned about his decision making out of the
pick and roll, Like, that's fine if you need to slow down your
offense and he's the one that's always going to be running it. He turned
the ball over on twenty three point four percent of his pick and rolls last
season. That was a career worst mark against sample size is just so small.
Do you need to care? He's never been super efficient scoring out of
the pick and roll. Career high effect the field goal percentage out of pick
and rolls was three seven point six came last year in twenty twenty one.
That's like, like, yes, he's an average to below average pick and
role player, that's not the end of the world when he is again not
the one a for your offense. And this is someone who in the past
two years, like he's done a great job upping his shooting foul percentage.
It's above twelve in each of the last two years twelve percent. And just
to contextualize that per creating the glass relative to his position, he's ranked in
the eighty six percent tile or better of shooting foul frequency. Last year,
we saw his free throw shooting really drop off. I think it was in
the low seventies. That was a little bit weird. There's value there too,
So this isn't someone who was just still bailing out too early, not
passing at all and not getting other opportunities at the foul line relative to the
role that he's playing. He's actually getting there quite frequently, and he's upped
his rim frequency progressively, sort of hovered like, yeah, there might have
been a medium, but the finishing the past two years, including last season,
was a lot better. So why wouldn't you want him on your team?
And the injury it matters. But if you're the Calves or constant's worth
more to you. That's just my point, just the draft tacks of it.
You could say whatever you want at the market. Right now, I
really feel like they're overplaying hand and it could come back to bite them in
the ass. If they don't budge they don't want to pay the luxury tax
this season, we'll get it. Like that's just stupid in itself. Dan
Gilbert is the second richest owner in the NBA. He's also the second richest
owner per Forbes in net worth just in professional sports, by the way,
at over thirty billion dollars. So I'm not gonna cry for him and a
prospective luxury tax bill, especially when oh, you know they did use the
mini mL E I guess to bring back Ricky Rubio. They were within close
enough to the apron where you probably could have thought about using the entire mL
E. And you want to Rubio back to get it. Could you've gotten
a better player? Digressing here very hard. You can make other moves to
get out of the tax and con Sexton, to me, is worth that
you're not, Like, yes, Alan Love is even sort of entrenched salary
so high. I think Jetty Osman is important to your shooting, to your
floor spacing. If you're that concerned about the tax, can you find someone
to take him and save let's say five million of a seven point four million
dollars salary and then make up the difference with like in the Sexton salary,
like even you know, forty over three years, we're talking about an average
annual value of like thirteen and change, so like bringing that up past fifteen,
I think he's worth that, even coming off the injury. If this
is something they know more about his vitals then we do. Sure, I
guess you can play your hand this way. But Colin Sexton probably had twenty
million. I can say with like a fair amount of certainty, probably had
twenty million dollars or close to it per year on the table for him and
extend talks him. Turning it down proves to be a mistake. Like if
you're the Calves, this is someone who even if it's like Dylan Windler,
can you find someone to take on his four million dollars salary? Like this
is someone who's actually worth taking room for on your roster to pay more.
And you don't also know what's going to happen with Karros Lavert just sort of
roll dice here and either would have sect In Sciences qualifying offer or you signed
a short term deal where he gets three agency and twenty three or twenty four
and then you risk losing him there. You might be compelled to extend Lavert
on a deal that you're not so comfortable with because you need another creator here.
We saw it with them later in the season in the playing games,
like they need Colin Secton. He is not the traditional self creator. If
you're looking for guys who are going to get into the lane, guys are
going to hit those off the rible jumpers in the lane or from beyond the
arc, but he puts pressure, consistent, real pressure on defenses. He's
actually a quality finisher. And if he's an average passer, fine, he's
he doesn't need to be your player there. And so I really am I
guess I'm not floored. It's it's it's the Calves with Dan Gilbert, and
they do have quite a bit through their credit, like wrapped up in Allen
and look, I think Gilbert has paid players in the past, but we've
also seen like extensions really drag out when you go back, HARKing back to
Tristan Thompson with Lebron and so this isn't like Calve's gonna Calve situation here.
I just feel like they're misplaying the hand. I would pay, like even
upping your offer to sixteen, I would pay comfortably. Yes, if you
get in the twenty million dollars range now coming off the injury, I get
it. And now you've paid Garland, you've paid Allan, You're gonna have
to pay Mobile. You view them as your top three players. I get
that too. Somewhere between sixteen and nineteen for Colin Sexton's seems eminently reasonable.
And if that gets him to sign even a three year deal with no outs.
It's totally worth it, and it doesn't break your bank when you're looking
at the salary cap that's rising. And so I think the Calvs should figure
out a way to offer him more and duck the acts. If that's what
they need to do, they should be offering him more. In my opinion,
I am I would also finally wrap up with this. I would just
advocate for a team trying to get in here and getting him pace. Your
compensation will be tough for anyone who's not the Pacers or the Spurs. I
wouldn't hate it if the Pacers went after context, and I know that they
have Chris Duarte and of course Tyr's Haliburton. You can play exit in Aliburton
together, and if you want to have Duarte at the three have Benedick Mathin
as well. Just I would try it, like, especially if it's gonna
cost lower than twenty or in the twenties, Like that's gonna be a movable
contract if you need to do it. And this is someone who is just
I won't say he's a universal fit on offense, but I'll use the word
everybody drink. It's scalable. What he does you put that within any offense
almost and he's going to be able to make an impact if you're expecting him
to be your primary floor generals, that's on you in the construct of your
team. Efficient actually efficient scores twenty one season. Even if you view it
as an anomaly that list, I would argue does not happen by accident when
you're dealing with the volume at which Sexton was playing and shooting. And look,
newsflash, he is shooting, including last year. He's now shot over
fifty percent on twos in each of the past three seasons, and he is
a career thirty seven point percent three point shooter. Last year's average is dragging
him down at twenty four point four percent. He has never averaged fewer than
sixteen points a game. Sometimes you need someone who can get buckets and be
your tertiary creator. That is Colin Sexton. And this is not, you
know, an aging Jamal Crawford or Lou Williams situation. He is bringing more
value than those guys. You don't even need to equate him to a Jordan
Clarkson who's had sort of a career renaissance. Maybe he's a little bit friskier
off the dribble gives you less rim pressure, nowhere near as good of a
passer. So I don't understand why the Calves are messing around. If I'm
the Pacers, I would look at it. If I'm the Mavericks, is
there a trade package I can offer that's gonna get Cleveland to bite a base.
Your compensation makes it tough, as does their unwillingness apparently to go into
the tax I'm like, I wouldn't even hate Sexton in Toronto. Their salary
matching is tough there. Now, you look at a team like the other
one that's braying to mind for me would be Orlando, Like that's someone they
could use with sugs and back Carrow there like, I don't know that Faults
or Hampton, like that's just it's just iffy. You're you don't need Sexton
to be your primary playmaker, but he's also probably a better playmaker than than
Hampton at this point, and you have faults, Like I said, it's
a very good pastor now even when Wilcarter Junior thanks Carroll's passing is gonna be
absurd. That's a team. Can you get involved with the sign and trade?
I believe Gary Harris can be immediately traded. And if I'm wrong,
you build stuff around Pence Ross. If not build stuff around the two of
them, someone go out there and pay Colin Sexton, because I'm not saying
this is someone who needs to get a MAX. Just some team pay him
what he's actually worth, which is a lot more to me than borderline mid level exception