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Chapter nine of Aviation Instructor's Handbook.
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recordings are in the public domain.
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visit LibriVox dot org. Aviation Instructor's
Handbook f A A dash H DASH eighty

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eighty three DASH nine A Chapter nine
Risk Management Introduction. Pull the throttleback,

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Lenore, a Certificated Flight Instructor c
F I ordered the student, Jennifer,

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as the revolutions per minute or p
M climbed past two thousand on engine start

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up, I did, I did
both. Jennifer and Lenore grabbed the mixture

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and pulled. The engine went from
a deafening roar to silence. They looked

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at each other. What happened,
asked Jennifer. I don't know. Let's

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check the engine, Leonora said.
Ten minutes later, they had removed the

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cowling from the SESSA one fifty two. A quick engine check gave them the

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answer. The throttle rod end was
not connected to the carburetor arm. No

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bolt, no nut, just air
between the rod end and the arm.

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Jennifer looked at Lenore, What had
this happened? In flight? What I

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want to know? Leonora said,
is how this happened at all. The

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annual inspection was signed off yesterday.
The previous day, the annual inspection had

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been signed off after lengthy inspection by
a local facility. Several mechanics had been

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involved in the inspection, including the
owner Slash A student who had installed a

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headliner. The mechanic with the inspection
authorization i A who signed off the annual

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was supervising several annuals, so most
of the maintenance was performed by other mechanics.

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After the inspection, the engine had
been run up according to the usual

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post inspection procedures. The student and
instructor had flown the airplane for a half

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hour familiarization flight. The next day's
engine start resulted in a runaway engine,

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with the apparent cause due to the
lack of a throttle rod end hardware being

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safetyat. Three dificient areas in this
annual inspection were identified by a round table

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discussion group of Aircraft and power Plant
A and P mechanics and the student.

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These areas were lack of responsibility checklist
misuse, complacency, lack of responsibility.

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No one took responsibility for the entire
inspection. The chances of something being overlooked

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increase with an increase in the number
of mechanics involved in an inspection. The

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responsible person is removed from the actual
procedure. The student remembers hearing the IA

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ask one of the engine mechanics about
the throttle. However, the question was

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vague, the answer was vague,
and the rod end was not safetiat checklist

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misuse. All checklists have a line
item regarding inspection of the engine controls for

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rigging and safe. Perhaps the throttle
rod end had been disconnected for maintenance after

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the IA had signed off the control
inspection. In that case, a discrepancy

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should have been entered onto the discrepancy
sheet stating reconnect and safety throttle rod end.

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Complacency an insidious and hard to identify
attitude. Each of the mechanics involved

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in the incident thought someone else had
inspected the throttle rod end. The IA

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signed off the annual inspection because he
had either asked the mechanics about the items

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on the checklist, or in his
frequent visits to the airplane, had inspected

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the various items himself and decided that
was good enough. Complacency crippled the mechanics

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quality of work by removing any thoughts
of double checking each other's work. While

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a definite answer to the question of
what happened remains a matter of speculation,

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professional mechanics should heed warning signs of
potential problems. The combination of a lengthy

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inspection, numerous technicians, an overworked
supervisor, a poor checklist, and vague

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communication should raise a red flag of
caution. Although the ultimate responsibility for the

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safety of any flight rests with the
pilot in command PIC, it is not

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unreasonable for the PIC to assume that
mechanics also take their responsibilities seriously. This

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scenario underscores the need for safety risk
management at all levels of aviation. Safety

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risk management, a formal system of
hazard identification and analysis is essential for keeping

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risk at acceptable levels. Part of
this process is selecting the appropriate controls to

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mitigate the risk of the identified hazard. The primary objective of risk management is

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accident prevention, which is achieved by
proactively identifying, assessing, and eliminating or

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controlling safety related hazards to acceptable levels. This chapter discusses safety risk management in

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the aviation community, looking at it
as preemptive rather than reactive. The principles

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of risk management and the tools for
teaching risk management in the flight training environment

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are addressed in Chapter eight Techniques of
Flight Instruction. Defining risk management. Risk

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is defined as the probability and possible
severity of accident or loss from exposure to

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various hazards, including injury to people
and loss of resources Figure nine Dash one.

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All Federal Aviation Administration FAA operations in
the United States involve risk and required

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decisions that include risk assessment and risk
management. Risk management, a formalized way

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of thinking about these topics, is
the logical process of weighing the potential costs

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of risks against the possible benefits of
allowing these risks to stand uncontrolled. Risk

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management is a decision making process designed
to identify hazards, systematically, assess degree

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of risk, and determine the best
course of action. Key terms are hazard

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a present condition, event, object, or circumstance that could lead to or

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contribute to an unplanned or undesired event, such as an accident. It is

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a source of danger. For example, a nick in the propeller represents a

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hazard. Risk the future impact of
a hazard that is not controlled or illuminated.

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It is the possibility of loss or
injury. The level of risk is

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measured by the number of people or
resources affected exposure, the extent of possible

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loss, severity, and the likelihood
of loss probability. Safety freedom from those

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conditions that can cause death, injury, occupational illness, or damage to or

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loss of equipment or property, or
damage to the environment. Note that absolute

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safety is not possible because complete freedom
from all hazardous conditions is not possible.

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Therefore, safety is a relative term
that implies a level of risk that is

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both perceived and accepted. Figure nine
Dash one text types of risk. Total

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risk the sum of identified and unidentified
risks identified risk risk, which has been

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determined through various analysis techniques. The
first task of system safety is to identify,

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within practical limitations, all possible risks
unidentified risk risk not yet identified.

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Some unidentified risks are subsequently identified when
a mishap occurs. Some risk is never

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known. An acceptable risk risk which
cannot be tolerated by the managing activity.

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It is a subset of identified risk
that must be eliminated or are controlled.

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Acceptable risk. Acceptable risk is the
part of identified risk that is allowed to

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persist without further engineering or management action. Making. This decision is a difficult

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yet necessary responsibility of the managing activity. This decision is made with full knowledge

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that it is the user who is
exposed to the risk. Residual risk.

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Residual risk is the risk left over
after system safety efforts have been fully employed.

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It is not necessarily the same as
acceptable risk. Residual risk is the

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sum of acceptable risk and unidentified risk. This is the total risk passed on

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to the user. End of Figure
nine, Dash one text Principles of risk

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management except no unnecessary risk. Unnecessary
risk is that which carries no commensurate returns

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in terms of benefits or opportunities.
Everything involves risk. The most logical choices

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for accomplishing an operation are those that
meet all requirements with a minimum acceptable risk.

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The corollary to this axiom is accept
necessary risk required to complete the operation

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or task. Successfully. Flying is
impossible without risk, but unnecessary risk comes

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without a corresponding return. If flying
a new airplane for the first time,

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a c FI might determine that the
risk of making the flight in low instrument

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flight rules if R conditions is unnecessary
make risk decisions at the appropriate level.

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Anyone can make a risk decision,
However, the appropriate decision maker is the

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person who can develop and implement risk
controls. The decision maker must be authorized

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to accept levels of risk typical of
the planned operation. In a single pilot

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situation, the pilot makes the decisi
to accept certain levels of risk. In

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the maintenance facility and aviation maintenance technician
AMT may need to elevate decisions to the

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next level in the chain of management
upon determining that those controls available to him

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or her will not reduce residual risk
to an acceptable level. Accept risk when

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benefits outweigh the costs. All identified
benefits should be compared against all identified costs.

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Even high risk endeavors may be undertaken
when there is clear knowledge that the

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sum of the benefits exceeds the sum
of the costs. For example, in

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any flying activity, it is necessary
to accept some dewree of risk. A

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day of good weather, for example, is a much better time to fly

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an unfamiliar airplane for the first time
than a day with low instrument flight rules.

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If our conditions integrate risk management into
planning at all levels, risks are

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more easily assay and managed in the
planning stages of an operation. The later

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changes are made in the process of
planning and executing an operation, the more

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expensive and time consuming they become.
Because risk is an unavoidable part of every

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flight, safety requires the use of
appropriate and effective risk management, not just

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in the pre flight planning stage,
but in all stages of the flight risk

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management process. Risk management is a
simple process which identifies operational hazards and takes

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reasonable measures to reduce risk to personnel, equipment, and the mission. Step

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one, identify the hazard. A
hazard is defined as any real or potential

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condition that can cause degradation, injury, illness, death, or damage to

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or loss of equipment or property.
Experience, common sense and specific analytical tools

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help identify risks. Step two assess
the risk. The assessment step is the

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application of quantitative and qualitative measures to
determine the level of risk associated with specific

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hazards. This process defines the probability
and severity of an accident that could result

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from the hazards based upon the exposure
of humans or assets to the hazards.

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Step three analyze risk control measures.
Investigate specific strategies and tools that reduce,

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mitigate, or eliminate the risk.
All risks have two components, one probability

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of occurrence. Two severity of the
hazard. Effective control measures reduce or eliminate

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at least one of these. The
analysis must take into account the overall costs

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and benefits of remedial actions, providing
alternative choices if possible. Step four make

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control decisions. Identify the appropriate decision
maker. That decision maker must choose the

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best control or combination of controls based
on the analysis of steps one and two.

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Step five implement risk controls. A
plan for applying the selected controls must

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be formulated. The time, materials, and personnel needed to put these measures

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in place must be provided. Step
six supervise and review. Once controls are

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in place, the process must be
reevaluated periodically to insure their effectiveness. People

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at every level must fulfill their respective
roles to assure the controls are maintained over

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time. The risk management process continues
throughout the life cycle of the system,

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mission, or activity implementing the risk
management process. To derive maximum benefit from

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this powerful tool, it must be
used properly. The following principles are essential

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apply the steps in sequence. Each
step is a building block for the next

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and must be completed before proceeding to
the next. If a hazard identification step

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is interrupted to focus on the control
of a particular hazard. More important hazards

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may be overlooked. Until all hazards
are identified, the remainder of the process

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is not effective. Maintain a balance
in the process. All steps are important.

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Allocate the time and resources to perform
all apply the process in a cycle.

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The supervise and review step should include
a brand new look at the operation

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being analyzed to see whether new hazards
can be identified. Involve people in the

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process, ensure that risk controls or
mission supportive, and the people who must

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do the work see them as positive
actions. The people who are actually exposed

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to risks usually know best what works
and what does not. Level of risk

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The level of risk posed by a
given hazard is measured in terms of severity,

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extent of the possible loss, probability, likelihood that a hazard will cause

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a loss, Assessing risk. Assessment
of risk is an important part of good

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risk management. For example, the
hazard of a nick in the propeller poses

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a risk only if the airplane is
flown. If the damaged prop is exposed

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to the constant vibration of normal engine
operation, there is a high risk that

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it could fracture and cause catastrophic damage
to the engine and or airframe and the

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passengers. Every flight has hazards and
some level of risks associated with it.

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It is critical that pilots and especially
students, are able to differentiate in advance

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between a low risk flight and a
high risk flight, and then establish a

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review process and develop risk mitigation strategies
to address flights through out that range.

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For the single pilot, assessing risk
is not as simple as it sounds.

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For example, the pilot acts as
his or her own quality control in making

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decisions. If a fatigued pilot who
has flown sixteen hours is asked if he

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or she is too tired to continue
flying, the answer may be no.

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Most pilots are goal oriented, and
when asked to accept a flight, there

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is a tendency to deny personal limitations
while adding weight to issues not germane to

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the mission. For example, pilots
of helicopter Emergency services EMS have been known

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to make flight decisions that add significant
weight to the patient's welfare. These pilots

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add weight to intangible factors the patient
in this case, and fail to appropriately

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quantify actual hazards such as fatigue or
weather when making flight decisions. The single

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pilot who has no other crew member
for consultation, must wrestle with the intangible

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factors that draw one into a hazardous
position. Therefore, he or she has

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greater vulnerability than a full crew.
Examining National Transportation Safety Board NTSB reports and

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other accident research can help a pilot
learn to assess risk more effectively. For

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example, the accident rate during night
VFR decreases by nearly fifty percent once a

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pilot obtains one hundred hours and continues
to decrease until the one follows an hour

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level. The data suggests that for
the first five hundred dollars, pilots flying

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VFR at night might want to establish
higher personal limitations than are required by the

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regulations, and, if applicable,
applying instrument flying skills to this environment.

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Several risk assessment models are available to
assist in the process of assessing risk.

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The models, all taking slightly different
approaches, seek a common goal of assessing

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risk in an objective manner. The
most basic tool is the risk matrix Figure

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nine. Dash two assesses two items, the likelihood of an event occurring and

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the consequences of that event. Likelihood
of an event likelihood is nothing more than

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taking a situation and determining the probability
of its occurrence. It is rated as

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probable, occasional, remote, or
improbable. For example, a pilot is

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flying from point A to point B
fifty miles in marginal visual flight rules m

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VFR conditions. The likelihood of encountering
potential instrument meteorological conditions i MC is the

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first question the pilot needs to answer. The Experiences of other pilots, coupled

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with the four cast might cause the
pilot to assign occasional to determine the probability

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of encountering IMC. The following are
guidelines for making assignments. Probable. An

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event will occur several times. Occasional, an event will probably occur sometime Remote.

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An event is unlikely to occur but
is possible. Improbable. An event

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is highly unlikely to occur. The
severity of an event. The next element

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is the severity or consequences of a
pilot's actions. It can relate to injury

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and or damage. If the individual
in the example above is not an instrument

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flight rules IFR pilot, what are
the consequences of encountering inadvertent i AMC?

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In this case, because the pilot
is not IFR rated, the consequences are

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catastrophic. The following are guidelines for
this assignment. Catastrophic in fatalities total loss,

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critical, severe injury, major damage, marginal minor injury, minor damage,

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00:20:11,359 --> 00:20:18,640
negligible less than minor injury, less
than minor system damage. Simply connecting

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00:20:18,640 --> 00:20:22,160
the two factors are shown in Figure
nine. Dash two indicates the risk is

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00:20:22,240 --> 00:20:26,720
high and the pilot must either not
fly or fly only after finding ways to

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00:20:26,759 --> 00:20:34,200
mitigate, eliminate, or control the
risk. Mitigating risk risk assessment is only

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00:20:34,240 --> 00:20:38,960
part of the equation. After determining
the level of risk, the pilot needs

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00:20:38,960 --> 00:20:44,319
to mitigate their risk. For example, the pilot flying from point A to

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00:20:44,400 --> 00:20:49,559
point B fifty miles in m VFR
conditions has several ways to reduce risk.

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00:20:51,559 --> 00:20:57,119
Wait for the weather to improve to
good visual flight rules VFR conditions. Take

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00:20:57,160 --> 00:21:02,680
a pilot who is rated as an
I of our pilot, delay the flight,

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00:21:03,519 --> 00:21:11,480
cancel the flight, drive I'm safe, I am safe checklist. One

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00:21:11,480 --> 00:21:17,440
of the best ways that single pilots
can mitigate risk is to use the I'm

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00:21:17,599 --> 00:21:22,440
Safe checklist Figure nine, Dash three
to determine physical and mental readiness for flying

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00:21:23,640 --> 00:21:32,319
one illness, Am I sick Illness
is an obvious pilot risk. Two medication

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00:21:32,759 --> 00:21:36,480
Am I taking any medicines that might
affect my judgment or make me drowsy?

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00:21:37,599 --> 00:21:42,039
Three? Stress? Am I under
psychological pressure from the job? Do I

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have money, health, or family
problems? Stress causes concentration and performance problems.

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00:21:48,599 --> 00:21:53,839
While the regulations list medical conditions that
require grounding, stress is not among

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them. The pilot should consider the
effects of stress on performance. Four Alcohol

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Have I been drinking within eight hours? Within twenty four hours? As little

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00:22:06,640 --> 00:22:11,079
as one ounce of liquor, one
bottle of beer or four ounces of wine

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00:22:11,440 --> 00:22:18,759
can impair flying skills. Alcohol also
renders a pilot more susceptible to disorientation and

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00:22:18,039 --> 00:22:26,200
hypoxia. Five Fatigue Am I tired
and not adequately rested? Fatigue continues to

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00:22:26,240 --> 00:22:30,319
be one of the most insidious hazards
to flight safety, as it may not

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00:22:30,400 --> 00:22:37,359
be apparent to a pilot until serious
errors are made. Six Eating Have I

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00:22:37,440 --> 00:22:44,839
eaten enough of the proper foods to
keep adequately nourished during the entire flight The

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00:22:45,000 --> 00:22:52,720
pa VEE PAVE checklist. Another way
to mitigate risk is to perceive hazards by

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00:22:52,720 --> 00:22:57,519
incorporating the PAVE Checklist into all stages
of flight planning. The pilot divides the

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00:22:57,599 --> 00:23:07,599
risks of flight to four categories p
Pilot in Command pic, A, aircraft

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00:23:10,119 --> 00:23:18,440
V, Environment and E External Pressures
PAVE, which form part of the pilot's

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00:23:18,480 --> 00:23:22,920
decision making process. With the PAVE
Checklist, pilots have a simple way to

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00:23:22,960 --> 00:23:29,519
remember each category to examine for risk
prior to each flight. Once a pilot

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00:23:29,559 --> 00:23:33,680
identifies the risk of a flight,
he or she needs to decide whether the

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00:23:33,759 --> 00:23:38,559
risk or combination of risks can be
managed safely and successfully. If not,

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00:23:38,960 --> 00:23:44,160
make the decision to cancel the flight. If the pilot decides to continue with

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00:23:44,200 --> 00:23:48,519
the flight, he or she should
develop strategies to mitigate the risks. One

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00:23:48,559 --> 00:23:53,400
way a pilot can control the risks
is to set personal minimums for items in

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00:23:53,440 --> 00:24:00,960
each risk category. These are limits
unique to that individual pilots current level of

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00:24:00,000 --> 00:24:07,240
experience and proficiency. For example,
the aircraft may have a maximum crosswind component

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00:24:07,279 --> 00:24:12,039
of fifteen knots listed in the Aircraft
Flight Manual AFM, and the pilot has

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00:24:12,079 --> 00:24:18,519
experienced with ten knots of direct crosswind, it could be unsafe to exceed ten

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00:24:18,599 --> 00:24:23,799
knots cross wind component without additional training. Therefore, the ten knots crosswind experience

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00:24:23,880 --> 00:24:32,720
level is that pilot's personal limitation until
additional training with a certificated flight instructor CFI

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00:24:32,880 --> 00:24:37,799
provides the pilot with additional experience for
flying in crosswinds that exceed ten knots.

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00:24:38,599 --> 00:24:44,720
One of the most important concepts that
safe pilots understand is the difference between what

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00:24:44,920 --> 00:24:49,039
is legal in terms of the regulations
and what is smart or safe in terms

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00:24:49,079 --> 00:24:57,240
of pilot experience and proficiency. P
equals Pilot in command PIC. The pilot

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00:24:57,319 --> 00:25:02,039
is one of the risk factors in
a fly. The pilot must ask am

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00:25:02,039 --> 00:25:06,680
I ready for this trip? In
terms of experience, currency, physical and

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00:25:06,720 --> 00:25:12,079
emotional conditions. The I'm safe checklist, combined with proficiency, recency, and

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00:25:12,160 --> 00:25:21,319
currency, provides the answers A equals
aircraft? What limitations will an aircraft impose

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00:25:21,400 --> 00:25:26,240
upon the trip? Ask the following
questions, Is this the right aircraft for

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00:25:26,279 --> 00:25:32,400
the flight? Am I familiar with
and current in this aircraft? Aircraft performance

257
00:25:32,440 --> 00:25:37,319
figures and the AFM are based on
a brand new aircraft flown by a professional

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00:25:37,319 --> 00:25:44,720
test pilot. Keep that in mind
while assessing personal and aircraft performance. Is

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00:25:44,720 --> 00:25:49,319
this aircraft equipped for the flight.
Instruments, lights, navigation, and communication

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00:25:49,359 --> 00:25:56,240
equipment adequate. Can this aircraft use
the runways available for the trip with an

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00:25:56,240 --> 00:26:02,039
adequate margin of safety under the conditions
to be flown? Can this aircraft carry

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00:26:02,079 --> 00:26:07,160
the plans load? Can this aircraft
operate at the altitudes needed for the trip?

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00:26:07,480 --> 00:26:14,559
Does this aircraft have sufficient fuel capacity
with reserves for trip legs planned?

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00:26:15,519 --> 00:26:22,920
Does the fuel quantity delivered match the
fuel quantity ordered v equals environment Weather is

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00:26:22,960 --> 00:26:30,039
a major environmental consideration. Earlier,
it was suggested pilots set their own personal

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00:26:30,119 --> 00:26:36,039
minimums, especially when it comes to
weather. As pilots evaluate the weather for

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00:26:36,119 --> 00:26:41,000
a particular flight, they should consider
the following. What of the current ceiling

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00:26:41,079 --> 00:26:45,799
and visibility in mountainous terrain? Consider
having higher minimums for ceiling and visibility,

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00:26:47,200 --> 00:26:52,400
particularly if the terrain is unfamiliar.
Consider the possibility that the weather may be

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00:26:52,480 --> 00:26:57,960
different than forecast, Have alternative plans, and be ready and willing to divert

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00:26:59,279 --> 00:27:03,960
should an unexpected change occur. Consider
the winds at the airports being used and

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00:27:04,039 --> 00:27:10,160
the strength of the cross wind component. If flying in mountainous terrain, consider

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00:27:10,200 --> 00:27:15,960
whether there are strong winds aloft strong
winds in mountainous terrain can cause severe turbulence

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00:27:15,000 --> 00:27:19,480
and down drafts, and can be
very hazardous for aircraft even when there is

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00:27:19,519 --> 00:27:26,920
no other significant weather. Are there
any thunderstorms present or forecast? If there

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00:27:26,960 --> 00:27:30,839
are clouds, is there any icing
current or forecast? What does the temperature

277
00:27:30,880 --> 00:27:36,880
dew point spread and the current temperature
at altitude? Can descent be made safely

278
00:27:36,960 --> 00:27:41,559
all along the route? If icing
conditions are encountered. Is the pilot experienced

279
00:27:41,559 --> 00:27:48,240
at operating the aircraft's de icing or
anti icing equipment? Is this equipment in

280
00:27:48,319 --> 00:27:52,799
good condition and functional for what icing
conditions? Is the aircraft rated if any?

281
00:27:53,960 --> 00:28:00,480
Evaluation of terrain is another important component
of analyzing the flight environment. To

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00:28:00,559 --> 00:28:06,319
avoid terrain and obstacles, especially at
night or in low visibility, determine safe

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00:28:06,359 --> 00:28:12,359
altitudes in advance by using altitudes shown
on VFR and IR charts. During preflight

284
00:28:12,440 --> 00:28:19,599
planning, use maximum elevation figures me
efs, and other easily obtainable data to

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00:28:19,640 --> 00:28:27,480
minimize chances of an in flight collision
with terrain or obstacles. Airport considerations include

286
00:28:27,880 --> 00:28:37,759
what lights are available at the destination
and alternate airports VASI slash, PAPI or

287
00:28:37,799 --> 00:28:42,319
ils glide slope guidance. Is the
terminal airport equipped with them? Are they

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00:28:42,400 --> 00:28:47,920
working? Will the pilot need to
use the radio to activate the airport lights?

289
00:28:48,400 --> 00:28:56,440
Check the notices to airmen NOTAMs,
no tams for closed runways or airports.

290
00:28:56,400 --> 00:29:02,799
Look for runway or beacon lights out
near by towers, etc. Choose

291
00:29:02,799 --> 00:29:07,599
the flight route wisely. An engine
failure gives the nearby airports and terrain supreme

292
00:29:07,640 --> 00:29:15,799
importance. Are there shorter or obstructed
fields at the destination and or alternate airports.

293
00:29:15,920 --> 00:29:22,640
Airspace considerations include if the trip is
over remote areas or appropriate clothing,

294
00:29:22,799 --> 00:29:26,880
water, and survival gear on board
in the event of a forced landing.

295
00:29:27,160 --> 00:29:33,000
If the trip includes flying over water
or unpopulated areas with a chance of losing

296
00:29:33,160 --> 00:29:38,279
visual reference to the horizon, the
pilot must be current equipped and qualified to

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00:29:38,319 --> 00:29:47,119
fly IFR, check the airspace and
temporary flight restrictions TFRs along the route of

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00:29:47,160 --> 00:29:52,119
flight. Night flying requires a special
consideration. If the trip includes flying at

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00:29:52,240 --> 00:29:57,519
night, over water or unpopulated areas
with the chance of losing visual reference to

300
00:29:57,519 --> 00:30:02,920
the horizon, the pilot it must
be prepared to fly. IFR, will

301
00:30:02,960 --> 00:30:07,799
the flight conditions allow a safe emergency
landing? At night preflight. All aircraft

302
00:30:07,880 --> 00:30:15,440
lights interior and exterior for night flight
carry at least two flashlights, one for

303
00:30:15,559 --> 00:30:21,319
exterior preflight and a smaller one that
can be dimmed and kept nearby. E

304
00:30:21,319 --> 00:30:26,960
equals external pressures. External pressures or
influences external to the flight that create a

305
00:30:27,000 --> 00:30:32,000
sense of pressure to complete a flight, often at the expense of safety.

306
00:30:32,720 --> 00:30:37,720
Factors that can be external pressures include
the following someone waiting at the airport for

307
00:30:37,759 --> 00:30:42,119
the flight's arrival, a passenger the
pilot does not want to disappoint, the

308
00:30:42,200 --> 00:30:48,440
desire to demonstrate pilot qualifications, the
desire to impress someone. Probably the two

309
00:30:48,440 --> 00:30:55,839
most dangerous words in aviation are watch
this, the desire to satisfy a specific

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00:30:55,880 --> 00:31:00,960
personal goal, get home itis,
get their itis, and let's go itis.

311
00:31:03,160 --> 00:31:08,799
The pilot's general goal completion orientation,
emotional pressure associated with acknowledging that skill

312
00:31:08,799 --> 00:31:12,240
and experience levels may be lower than
a pilot would like them to be.

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00:31:12,960 --> 00:31:18,720
Pride can be a powerful external factor. Management of external pressure is a single

314
00:31:18,759 --> 00:31:25,599
most important key to risk management because
it is the one risk factor category that

315
00:31:25,680 --> 00:31:30,680
can cause a pilot to ignore all
the other risk factors. External pressures put

316
00:31:30,680 --> 00:31:36,240
time related pressure on the pilot and
figure into a majority of accidents. The

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00:31:36,400 --> 00:31:41,960
use of personal standard operating procedures SOOPS
is one way to manage external pressures.

318
00:31:42,839 --> 00:31:47,759
The goal is to supply a release
for the external pressures of a flight.

319
00:31:48,680 --> 00:31:52,720
These procedures include, but are not
limited, to allow time on a trip

320
00:31:52,839 --> 00:31:57,319
for an extra fuel stop or to
make an unexpected landing because of weather.

321
00:31:59,480 --> 00:32:05,839
Have all plans for a late arrival
or make backup airline reservations for must be

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00:32:05,920 --> 00:32:09,759
their trips. For really important trips, plan to leave early enough so that

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00:32:09,799 --> 00:32:15,480
there would still be time to drive
to the destination. Advise those who are

324
00:32:15,519 --> 00:32:20,319
waiting at the destination that the arrival
may be delayed, know how to notify

325
00:32:20,400 --> 00:32:27,599
them when delays are encountered. Manage
passenger expectations. Make sure passengers know that

326
00:32:27,680 --> 00:32:30,200
they might not arrive on a firm
schedule, and if they must arrive at

327
00:32:30,200 --> 00:32:36,880
a certain time, they should make
alternative plans. Eliminate pressure to return home,

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00:32:37,519 --> 00:32:40,880
even on a casual day flight,
by carrying a small overnight kit containing

329
00:32:40,920 --> 00:32:46,440
prescriptions, contact lens, solutions,
toiletries, or other necessities on every flight.

330
00:32:47,599 --> 00:32:52,799
The key to managing external pressure is
to be ready for and accept delays.

331
00:32:52,440 --> 00:32:57,920
Remember that people get delayed when traveling
on airb lines, driving a car,

332
00:32:58,160 --> 00:33:00,400
or taking a bus. The pilot
its goal is to manage risk,

333
00:33:00,640 --> 00:33:07,200
not create hazards. During each flight, decisions must be made regarding events involving

334
00:33:07,240 --> 00:33:15,079
interactions between the four risk elements pic, aircraft, environment, and external pressures.

335
00:33:16,079 --> 00:33:21,839
The decision making process involves an evaluation
of each of these risk elements to

336
00:33:21,839 --> 00:33:29,000
achieve an accurate perception of the flight
situation nine DASH four three P model for

337
00:33:29,119 --> 00:33:36,680
Pilots. Risk management is a decision
making process designing to perceive hazards, systematically,

338
00:33:37,119 --> 00:33:40,680
assess the degree of risk associated with
the hazard, and determine the best

339
00:33:40,759 --> 00:33:47,319
course of action. See apen x
F for example. The perceived process perform

340
00:33:47,960 --> 00:33:55,119
three P model for Aeronautical Decision Making
ADM offers a simple, practical and structured

341
00:33:55,160 --> 00:34:01,319
way for pilots to manage risk figure
nine DASH. To use the three P

342
00:34:01,559 --> 00:34:08,360
model, the pilot perceives a given
set of circumstances for a flight, processes

343
00:34:08,559 --> 00:34:15,360
by evaluating the impact of those circumstances
on flight safety performs by implementing the best

344
00:34:15,440 --> 00:34:21,760
course of action. In the first
step, the goal is to develop situational

345
00:34:21,800 --> 00:34:28,559
awareness by perceiving hazards, which are
present events, objects, or circumstances that

346
00:34:28,639 --> 00:34:34,559
could contribute to an undesired future event. In this step, the pilot systematically

347
00:34:34,599 --> 00:34:40,320
identifies and lists hazards associated with all
aspects of the flight pilot, aircraft environment,

348
00:34:40,519 --> 00:34:45,880
and external pressures. It is important
to consider how individual hazards might combine.

349
00:34:46,519 --> 00:34:51,719
Consider, for example, the hazard
that arises when a new instrument pilot

350
00:34:51,800 --> 00:34:55,840
with no experience in actual instrument conditions
wants to make a cross country flight to

351
00:34:55,920 --> 00:35:01,519
an airport with low ceilings in order
to attend an important business meeting. In

352
00:35:01,599 --> 00:35:06,519
the second step, the goal is
to process this information to determine whether the

353
00:35:06,719 --> 00:35:12,719
identified hazards constitute risk, which is
defined as the future impact of a hazard

354
00:35:12,800 --> 00:35:16,880
that is not controlled or eliminated.
The degree of risk posed by a given

355
00:35:16,920 --> 00:35:23,000
hazard can be measured in terms of
exposure, number of people or resources affected,

356
00:35:23,760 --> 00:35:30,280
severity, extent of possible loss,
and probability the likelihood that a hazard

357
00:35:30,320 --> 00:35:35,440
will cause a loss. If the
hazard is low ceilings, for example,

358
00:35:36,119 --> 00:35:38,760
the level of risk depends on a
number of other factors, such as pilot

359
00:35:38,800 --> 00:35:45,440
training and experience, aircraft equipment,
and fuel capacity. In the third step,

360
00:35:45,639 --> 00:35:51,679
the goal is to perform by taking
action to eliminate hazards or mitigate risk,

361
00:35:52,320 --> 00:35:57,800
and then continuously evaluate the outcome of
this action. With the example of

362
00:35:57,800 --> 00:36:02,440
low ceilings at destination, for instance, the pilot can perform good ADM by

363
00:36:02,480 --> 00:36:08,280
selecting a suitable alternate, knowing where
to find good weather and carrying sufficient fuel

364
00:36:08,320 --> 00:36:13,920
to reach it. This course of
action would mitigate the risk. The pilot

365
00:36:14,000 --> 00:36:19,760
also has the option to eliminate it
entirely by waiting for better weather. Once

366
00:36:19,800 --> 00:36:23,719
the pilot has completed the three P
decision process and selected a course of action,

367
00:36:24,119 --> 00:36:29,920
the process begins again because the set
of circumstances brought about by the course

368
00:36:29,920 --> 00:36:36,840
of action requires analysis. The decision
making process is a continuous loop of perceiving,

369
00:36:37,079 --> 00:36:42,079
processing, and performing. It is
never too early to start teaching students

370
00:36:42,119 --> 00:36:47,039
about risk management. Using the three
P model gives CFIS a tool to teach

371
00:36:47,079 --> 00:36:52,760
them a structured, efficient and systematic
way to identify hazards, assess risk,

372
00:36:53,159 --> 00:37:00,119
and implement effective risk controls. Practicing
risk management needs to be as automatic in

373
00:37:00,159 --> 00:37:07,239
general aviation GA flying as basic aircraft
control. Consider making the three P discussion

374
00:37:07,519 --> 00:37:13,400
a standard feature of the preflight discussion. As is true for other flying skills.

375
00:37:14,199 --> 00:37:20,719
Risk management habits are best developed through
repetition and consistent adherence to specific procedures

376
00:37:22,119 --> 00:37:28,159
hazard list. For aviation technicians,
amts should learn about risk management early in

377
00:37:28,199 --> 00:37:34,559
training. Also, instructors tasked with
integrating risk management into instruction can turn to

378
00:37:34,639 --> 00:37:39,320
hazard assessments that identify the safety risks
associated with the facility being used, the

379
00:37:39,360 --> 00:37:45,639
tools used in the procedure, and
are the job being performed. The process

380
00:37:45,679 --> 00:37:50,800
for identifying hazards can be accomplished through
the use of checklists, lessons learned,

381
00:37:51,280 --> 00:37:59,360
compliance inspections, SLASH audits, accidents
SLASH near misses, regulatory developments, and

382
00:37:59,639 --> 00:38:06,239
brain storming sessions. For example,
aviation accident reports from the National Transportation Safety

383
00:38:06,280 --> 00:38:12,400
Board and TSB can be used to
generate discussions pertaining to faulty maintenance that led

384
00:38:12,440 --> 00:38:17,360
to aircraft accidents. All available sources
should be used for identifying, characterizing,

385
00:38:17,400 --> 00:38:23,119
and controlling safety risks. The three
P model can also be adapted for use

386
00:38:23,199 --> 00:38:28,920
in a non flight environment, such
as a maintenance facility. For example,

387
00:38:29,119 --> 00:38:35,039
the AMT perceives a hazard, processes
its impact on shop or personnel safety,

388
00:38:35,599 --> 00:38:39,679
and then performs by implementing the best
course of action to mitigate the perceived risk.

389
00:38:42,119 --> 00:38:47,760
Pilot self assessment setting personal minimums is
an important step in mitigating risk and

390
00:38:47,880 --> 00:38:53,079
safe pilots know how to properly self
assessed. For example, in the opening

391
00:38:53,159 --> 00:38:59,480
scenario, the aircraft Merry plans to
fly may have a maximum crosswind component of

392
00:38:59,480 --> 00:39:05,760
fifteen knots listed in the Aircraft Flight
Manual AFM, but she only has experience

393
00:39:05,800 --> 00:39:09,719
with ten knots of direct crosswind.
It could be unsafe to exceed a ten

394
00:39:09,760 --> 00:39:15,559
knot cross wind component without additional training. Therefore, the ten knot crosswind experience

395
00:39:15,679 --> 00:39:22,960
level is Mary's personal limitation until additional
training with Daniel provides her with the additional

396
00:39:22,000 --> 00:39:30,039
experience for flying and crosswinds that exceed
ten knots. Pilots and training must be

397
00:39:30,079 --> 00:39:34,840
taught that exercising good judgment begins prior
to taking the controls of an aircraft.

398
00:39:35,519 --> 00:39:40,480
Often pilots thoroughly check their aircraft to
determine airworthiness, yet do not evaluate their

399
00:39:40,480 --> 00:39:45,480
own fitness for flight. Just as
a checklist is used when preflighting an aircraft,

400
00:39:45,840 --> 00:39:51,639
a personal checklist based on such factors
as experience, currency, and comfort

401
00:39:51,719 --> 00:39:55,800
level can help determine if a pilot
is prepared for a particular flight. The

402
00:39:55,960 --> 00:40:02,360
FAA's Personal Minimums Checklist, located in
Appendix D is an excellent tool for pilots

403
00:40:02,400 --> 00:40:10,199
to use in self assessment. This
checklist reflects the pavee pave approach to risk

404
00:40:10,320 --> 00:40:17,079
mitigation discussed in the previous paragraphs.
Worksheets for a more in depth risk assessment

405
00:40:17,119 --> 00:40:24,000
are located in the FAA SLASH Industry
Training Standards Personal and Weather Risk Assessment Guide,

406
00:40:24,519 --> 00:40:31,559
located online at www dot FAA dot
gov. This guide is designed to

407
00:40:31,599 --> 00:40:39,880
assist pilots in developing personal, standardized
procedures for accomplishing PIC responsibilities and in making

408
00:40:40,000 --> 00:40:47,119
better preflight and in flight weather decisions. CFIS should stress that frequent review of

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00:40:47,159 --> 00:40:53,559
the Personal Guide keeps the information fresh
and increases up pilot's ability to recognize the

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conditions in which a new risk assessment
should be made, a key element in

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00:40:58,719 --> 00:41:02,480
the decision making process. End of
Part one of Chapter nine