WEBVTT

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Not five miles an hour riding too
his head. He hopping down first with

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the lumpbonius face, and on the
very next pitch he up and stole second

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face with gretest be he wasn't born, he had yes uniform. Welcome to

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episode twenty three of the Prospect Besides
podcast. I am your host Nate Handy,

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joining me as always is Matt the
Rook and joining us tonight the very

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special guest Beck you might know him, is at upper Beck Dynasty. Dugout.

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How are you, gentlemen? Excellent? So excited to have the Points

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League genius on mister upper Beck,
upper being your first name, right,

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that's that's right, can go by
yes, a grist name, upper last

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name, surname Beck. Yeah,
that's on the birth certificate. It's great

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to be here, guys. Thanks
for having me on. Yeah, thanks

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for coming. I've been super curious
to ask you. So it's been about

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thirty years since your big mainstream loser
hit. What has been going on over

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the last thirty years that you went
from that to now the Prospect b Sides

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podcast. Well, you know,
they don't tell you this about the music

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industry, but it only takes one
and then you can coast for about thirty

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years and eventually the money drives up
and you end up on a podcast with

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Nate and the rook Moving Up,
Man Moving Up. Fantastic. This is

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the second hit. We should be
so lucky having you on. I mean,

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you've been a busy guy over the
past couple of weeks. You know,

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posted excellent piece of work for US
Points leaders in your Top one hundred,

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and have done a bit of the
podcast circuit as well. We are

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thrilled that you have carved on some
time to join us here on the B

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sides. But why do you start
by giving us a little bit of background,

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like how'd you get into baseball,
how'd you get into playing fantasy?

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And you know, why did you
start writing about it? Yeah? Well,

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one, thank you for the praise
that feels a little gratuitous. I

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love baseball. I've loved baseball from
a young age. It's funny. I

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actually my dad had no interest in
baseball, and when I started t ball,

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he kind of like jumped off the
deep end. He immediately became a

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Brewer season ticket holder and we would
go to just a ton of them every

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year. He also gave them away
for business and whatnot. But for me,

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it started at a very early age, and then you know, my

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dad kind of got into it through
me, so it's always been kind of

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a father son thing. I've been
to probably three hundred something Brewers games,

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kind of grew up in Miller Park, I will not call it an American

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family field, and kept playing through
high school. I decided not to pursue

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that at a D two or D
three level in college, and so it's

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just been a lifelong passion. If
I could choose how to spend any given

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day, it would almost definitely be
in a ballpark. That's why I love

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the Arizona Fall League so much,
because I get to do it three times

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in one day every once in a
while. Took a brief hiatus from baseball

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while I was in college. I
actually became, you know, the dreaded

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fantasy football guy that is going to
talk to you about their draft strategy in

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econ one to one in some sweaty
lecture hall, and then kind of boomeranged

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right back to it. So I've
been back in the swing, you know,

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for five six years now, and
decided, you know, I've got

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all of these baseball and baseball adjacent
thoughts bouncing around. They're a little deafening.

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Let's get these down on papers so
I don't go crazy nice now,

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Beck, you're a cheesehead. Now, I too, have lived in Wisconsin.

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I don't know if this is a
northeast Wisconsin thing strictly or not,

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but like, do you have a
favorite supper club? Oh, that is

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a very northern Wisconsin thing to ask. I don't. I've been to a

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number of them. There's one just
outside of Madison, Wisconsin. If the

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name strikes me while we're doing the
podcast, I'll just blurt it out.

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Okay, right on. Now,
I'm a huge I'm a huge supper club

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guy. So I've spent some time
in Minnesota and Wisconsin, but I can't

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say I'm familiar with a supper club. What is that for US West coasties?

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Essentially? And I don't know,
it's it's been a minute, so

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I've lived in Wisconsin, so maybe
they've evolved a little bit. But I

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think part of the whole the steak
of a supper club is that there isn't

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really anything that evolves. It's basically
like a nineteen sixties style menu more or

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less. So some classic you know, fair and then in Wisconsin, especially

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in northeast, you'll have like a
Friday fish fry special of some sort.

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They're often darkly lit restaurants, not
very very modern looking. I wouldn't say

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padded arm rests on the bar is
pretty much I don't know, maybe not

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one hundred percent across the board's supper
club feature, but part of it.

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You come in, you sit at
the bar, you have a couple of

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drinks. While you're waiting, they
usually will have some like cheese and crackers,

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different fair like that out while you're
waiting, You go in, you

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eat your meal, you eat your
your fish fry or your prime rib or

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what have you. And then it's
kind of customary to have a frozen alcoholic

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beverage of some sort of grasshopper,
brandy Alexander something like that. But yeah,

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it's just kind of like your your
Friday night, it's Saturday night,

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fancy dinner and yeah, interesting,
Okay, it's the height of class for

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people who carry it like a point
oh eight bac. It's true. It's

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true, all right, that makes
a lot of sense. My host dad,

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when I lived in Minnesota and played
there, he loved fishing on the

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lakes, in the summertime and loved
talking about the fish fry afterwards. And

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you know, I've done like West
coast fishing, river fishing, and deep

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sea fishing. And then I come
to Minnesota and we're up in these tiny

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little lakes, you know, fishing
for crappie and a little bit of walleye

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maybe if if we get lucky,
and then we come back with like thirty

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of these little tiny crappies and then
just fry them all up. And I'd

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never done that, and all the
Midwestern boys that we were with were like,

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Oh, no, this is this
is what we do everywhere. Yeah,

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this is standard. I still it's
been over twenty years since I've moved

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to Colorado, and still every Friday
night, I'm like, God, damn

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it, I need a fish fry. Yeah, and that a fishing is

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huge around here. I mean,
there is kind of an ideological war between

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Minnesota and Wisconsin on who actually has
more lakes. It's proven Wisconsin, definitely,

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I think. So the root of
the argument is how the DNR in

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each state actually defines a lake.
In Minnesota, the definition of a lake

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is much smaller than that of Wisconsin, and so officially recorded Minnesota has more

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lakes, but their criteria is much
less restrictive. They're cheaters, is what

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that saying. Yeah, not in
so many words, but yeah, I

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love it. We're on a really
niche fantasy baseball podcast and we're talking about

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the ontological definitions of what constitutes a
lake in between Wisconsin and Minnesota. This

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is gold, boys gold that I've
seen bar fights start. Oh yeah,

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this is not This is the heated
argument. It's serious business. Now.

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What the challenge is is how do
you segue from that to anything resembling fantasy

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baseball. It's a bit of an
impossible task. But you know what's also

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an impossible task is coming up with
coherent, useful rankings for points leagues.

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And you're the points league guy,
and personally, this has been my favorite

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kinds of formats to play. You
know, I started on the roto side,

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classic categories, but I have been
drawn to the more what I would

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say, varied and interesting challenges posed
by points leagues, like getting a Wisconsin

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I and I'm min a Sultan to
agree on the definition of a lake.

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How do you put out rankings that
make sense across all these different kinds of

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points leagues that is one of life's
great questions. I jumped into the whole

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points league thing with a little bit
of naivete about how varied that experience can

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be, and so when I set
out, we did some research on how

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are the primary platforms for fantasy baseball
different across their point scoring settings, and

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how might that influence the way that
you construct a team that also varies beyond

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just the point scoring settings themselves,
also varies across head to head or season

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long points. Those kinds of things
can have a big bearing on how you

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might approach that particular problem. Eventually, I ended up running a poll and

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saying like, Okay, if you're
a points league person, where are you

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spending most of your time, where
is the majority of your leagues hosted?

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And it ended up being pretty overwhelmingly
fan tracks. It wasn't even a plurality,

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it was a majority outright. Almost
all of my work is tailored specifically

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for fan tracks, and then once
I've settled those ranks, I will adjust

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them if I get questions from folks
about, hey, I have this Yahoo

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league or ESPN or god forbid,
CBS, here's how I might translate those

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things. But in general, there
are some principles that you can pull forward

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that I think are helpful. Shorthand, and now, Beck, do you

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play in just strictly points leagues or
do you play in other formats as well?

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It is my preferred format, and
it is also predominant format that I

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play. I do have a league
or two out there some stragglers that are

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still cats or Roto. But if
I'm joining any new leagues, unless it's

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you know, something like TGFBI,
I am probably playing a points format right

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on. I tend to prefer points
as well personally what I started playing many

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years ago. Nont my two cents. I mean, we don't have to

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get into this too much here.
It's not like a debate to me.

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But but things like Roto and categories
is an extremely different game to me than

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points. Roto had to have that
sort of thing to me, that's more

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of like a numbers game. That's
more of like a stat game where points

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now you can argue all day long
how well they do it. But I

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think a good points scoring system comes
up with one single number to value a

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player offensively, and it's more of
a of a baseball game, if you

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will, in my opinion. Anyways, sometimes you can tell talking to somebody

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and I have friends like this,
and this is and being judgmental, but

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it's like, man, your your
scope of what a good baseball player is

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is very much with rotisserie style league
lenses on my friend, I'm sorry,

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but Jonathan VR is not that great
of a player or was it or whatever?

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Right, But like like you're saying, within points leagues, there's a

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lot of different scoring. For me, the first first thing that I kind

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of look at it at a points
league is like, okay, what's the

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difference between a stolen base and a
home run? Points wise? You know,

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roster size, league size, What
what does the waiverpool look like?

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I think is very important. What's
what's the free replacement level player that you

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can have producing? And then off
of that, to me, all the

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all the player values go off of
how different that player can be, how

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much better that player can be in
relation to what's free out there? And

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uh, and I know, Beck, I I'd asked you this. I

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mean, this is probably a little
while ago, probably when I, you

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know, first discovered that you were
stopped doing music and we're doing baseball stuff.

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I was like, hey, man, in your top one hundred,

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how many pictures do you put in
that? Because I lean very heavy,

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I'm going after pictures. I feel
like if you can get a top tier

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picture, that's such bigger advantage than
getting the top toier hitter. So how

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many pictures did you did you put
in your top one hundred? We're going

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to be pulling off the top of
the head here, so bear with me.

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But I think it was somewhere between
twenty five and thirty. I know

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if this was Nate's list, that
number would probably be closer to an even

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split fifty to fifty. I do
think that you're right there is in most

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points formats probably greater value and absolutely
spiking on a prospect arm. At the

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same time, translating a minor league
picture into a rotation guy who's gonna throw

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thirty starts a year is very difficult. I think that's more difficult than you

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know, producing a top of the
scale. Bat think that's fair. It's

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back. I just double checked you
and it was twenty seven, so right

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down and nailed it. Yeah.
I don't know if you saw this back,

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but someone in the Dynasty dugout.
I think yesterday was like, okay,

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this guy in my points league is
drafting all pitchers. Yeah, that

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was going to work. But then
when you started asking the guy about it,

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sorted making a lot more sense to
me. Right, they had only

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like nine hitters in their starting lineup. It was like a twelve team league,

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small benches. It's like, well, then that makes a ton of

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sense to me that you because you
would just pick up your average hitter for

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nothing. So yeah, exactly,
And I mean if it's if you're able

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to just stack pitchers with two starts
and essentially have a league average hitter on

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the wire for free, that might
make a little bit of sense. The

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one thing that was weird about that, and just for context for everybody,

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someone was in the discord talking about
how they were fourteen rounds into a startup

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draft and there was a team in
their league that had drafted fourteen straight pitchers,

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which is a little reminiscent of like
the Angels in twenty twenty one,

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where they just took twenty straight arms
in the MLB draft, so a little

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bit higher stakes. You know,
Nate was poking and proud in a little

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bit trying to understand, well,
is this as crazy as it seems?

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And as we learn more, it
started you know, to feel a little

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bit like a viable strategy or at
least something worth trying. The only thing

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that held me up was there was
no trading in this league. It was

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kind of a draft and hold,
And so with that surplus, what are

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you really doing? You know,
there's not the ability to deal one a

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way and improve around the margins of
your team. But given the how relatively

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shallow the starting lineup was for bats, made a little bit of sense to

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me. Yeah, we've talked about
this before too, Nate, with depending

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on your format, if you aren't
capped per week or per day in how

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many starters you can run out there. Even if your porn's format really tries

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to depress the value of pictures,
it still can be an optimal strategy to

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have no hitters on your bench.
Just run the men out there of your

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starting lineup, and if you've got
a bunch of stud pictures that you can

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roll through every single day. Like
one of the leagues that I play in

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is like that, and the points
the highest point scorers are always hitters,

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and it's like out of the top
thirty, maybe three or pitchers, but

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we don't have start caps, and
so all of the good teams have their

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full bench. Eight players on their
bench are all starting pitchers that you just

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run through, and so you want
two three, four starters going a day,

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and that's how you win your head
to head matchups, not with you

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know, Aaron Judge and a bunch
of studs in your starting lineup. So

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it's an interesting thing that your points
format can really skew. It can be

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really different based on how you set
that up and what are the rules.

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Definitely, yeah, I mean rule
number one for antacy any fantasy league is

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understand your scoring settings and your format. A little shocking how often I go

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into like two catcher leagues and people
don't realize that and don't adjust the way

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that they're constructing a team, or
it's a five outfielder league and people are

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just not catching on. And so
it sounds very reductive. But the number

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one thing you have to do as
a fantasy player is understand the game that

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you're playing. That even gets it. You know, one of the things

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that we touched on before, or
fan track standard points has one setup whether

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you know what the value is for
a stolen base versus a home run.

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But you took a shot at setting
up a points format too, and I

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was curious, how did you go
about that, What were some of the

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things that went into that, and
when you were trying to think about how

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you want to set up the points
in a league. Yeah, it was

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an interesting experience. I feel very
grateful to have had the ability to play

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test some of the ideas that I
had about what the ideal point scoring format

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would be, you know, a
baseball fantasy baseball utopia. It would,

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in my opinion, a points format
would replicate to the best of its ability,

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the product on the field and how
valuable players are in real baseball.

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I don't think that's possible in rotisserie, just because you're highlighting you know,

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ten categories five across hitting, five
across pitching that may or may not have

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any bearing on the actual outcome of
a baseball game. And so I wanted

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to start there to a degree.
But what I was really focus on was

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how do we create a league where
the balance between hitting and pitching is as

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optimal as it can be and there
are as few kind of loopholes, for

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lack of a better term, where
you're rolling out three or four starting pitchers,

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for example, you know your example
previously and you would have to focus

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on constructing a more full and complete
team. So what did you land on?

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How did you express that? Because
you know, one of the formats

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that I think a decent number of
people play is the autnew points format on

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Fangraphs, which tries to get a
little bit of that with you know,

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they I think, do contracts as
well as express the point values as it

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relates to the linear weights of WHOBA
and things like that. But that's,

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you know, maybe a little bit
more in depth than some people want to

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get into. So how did you
take that same idea and then convert that

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into a points format? I will
say we primarily focused on the balance between

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pitching and hitting, and the biggest
part of that was pulling three or five

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years of history oracle outputs and then
running them through different point scoring settings to

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ensure that, you know, for
the top twenty five there was a relatively

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even split between pitchers and hitters.
The top fifty there is a relatively even

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split. The standard deviation between the
top player, you know, whatever of

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whatever population or whatever position were relatively
similar so that you don't have you know,

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people cycling relief pitchers or starting pitchers
or hoarding a ton of bench bats.

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You have to kind of organically build
each part of your roster with equal

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care, or have a strategy right
where it's like you might have a better

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starting rotation and then you got to
make do with your bats or vice versa,

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which incidentally is the problem that many
Major league teams have to go through.

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Or you could just be the Rockies
and just kind of not care,

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just have good deer and just there
you go. I mean, you don't

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have to worry about park factor or
a bad owner or anything like that.

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Ideally quick tangent. Just while I'm
on the rock, did you see Nate

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the article on fangrafts today. No, Oh, my goodness, you're gonna

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love it. It's a Michael Bauman
special, who I think is their funniest

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writer at the moment, and he
took a crack at how he can make

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this current version of the Rockies one
hundred and seven win team with changing nothing,

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and it's it is very funny.
But also it just looks at the

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futility of the exercise too, that
it's like literally one in many billions of

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chance, they all hit their ninetieth
percent ale or better, and that gets

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up to one hundred and seven wins, which is like anyway that it was.

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It made me think of you when
I was reading that one this afternoon.

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I'm sure it did. I don't
know if you did this back when

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you started playing points leagues, but
I mean, I think you're essentially trying

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to come up with like a fantasy
like war, right. I mean,

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it's kind of impossible to get one
metric that will just, you know,

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measure the totality of the value of
a player, But essentially I think that's

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what you're trying to do with the
scoring system, right. And the mistake

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that I made in my early days
of points was I mean, I guess

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I didn't really realize it at the
time, but I had some sort of

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projection system. I was guessing what
a player's production might be for the year,

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translating that to the amount of points
they would score. Me line those

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up from the most to the least, and hey, that's how I'm gonna

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draft my guys. Well, that
fails to what's something we alluded to earlier,

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but that fails to like measure the
relation of that player to its position

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and where you can use it and
how the point values will drop as you

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move down a list of hitters as
opposed to pitchers, et cetera. I'm

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a bit of a spreadsheet jockey in
my professional life, and so one thing

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I always recommend to people who are
either starting with Fantasy Baseball and their first

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foray is going to be a points
league, or someone that is transitioning from

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rotisserie, which is by far the
most widely available format, play with projections.

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Understand, you know, if I
run whatever your favorite projection system is

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through the scoring settings, how does
everything shake out and how should that change

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my draft strategy? And maybe the
most important thing is find kind of the

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cutoff of your player pool, how
many players are going to be rostered,

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and then start to calculate that above
replacement value for every player that's going to

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be rostered, and you can start
to get a sense of like where might

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there be positional scarcity and how might
I need to prioritize different parts of my

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team throughout a draft. And then
you know that also holds true every year

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when your league starts back up,
I mean, dynasties kind of you know,

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around the clock, but when you're
you know, jumping back into waivers

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are open again, calculate that again, update your projections, and really understand

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the lay of the land in your
league. I saw somebody asking about that

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in the Dynasty Dugout discord the other
day, and they had payed a couple

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of us and we're asking for some
input about some specific players, and as

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like, well, you know what
I would do is start with the Fangrafts

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auction calculator. And if you don't
want to build out your own full spreadsheet

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and do the nitty gritty work that
Beck's talking about, it's a great place

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to start. And even if it
doesn't have all of the categories or all

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of the different points permutations that you
need for your specific league, it is

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a great sanity check to see what
are the values do I need to think

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differently about a player based on this
particular point settings. And it's actually a

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great segue into the exercise that I
cooked up for us today that one of

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us at least did some homework for. We're going to explore that topic a

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little bit. So I play in
a bunch of different points league's formats and

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I love it both because of what
Nate was talking about earlier that I think

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there's something really fun about trying to
distill the value from very different shapes of

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production into one set of points one
point total. And it's so different depending

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on the league that you're playing in. It's not just rinse and repeat the

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same five y five or six by
six head to head categories. Leagues that

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fantasy Baseball came from, there's a
place for that, but points leagues and

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the fact that they value things so
differently, it kind of messes with your

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head when you first do it,
and you're like, wait, this player

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is a top fifty player, No
way, how can that possibly be?

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He's like barely rosterble in the major
leagues. And I think that that is

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an interesting nuance that I think that
even in the Dynasty dug At discord,

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which people are pretty good about saying
what their league type is and trying to

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be upfront about their valuations, I
think sometimes we underestimate how big the shifts

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can be in valuing players. So
what I did is I cooked up a

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little exercise and excuse for us to
talk about some sort of weird players that

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their the shape of their production might
not be recognized by the five by five

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community as particularly noteworthy, but in
certain points formats they might stand out.

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So we've got three different kinds of
points formats. The Beck points League,

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which think of that as like this
one is close to linear weights, so

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players that are good in the major
leagues generally are good in this format.

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It's i would say, more true
to their on field like real world value,

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you know, accepting defense. Then
there's a power focused format, which

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is one of the ones that I
play in, where the points are kind

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of ridiculous. It's like power hitters
reign supreme. Strikeouts basically don't matter,

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and so people like even well,
we'll get into that. There are some

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interesting names that pop in that kind
of a format. And then there's another

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format which you see in various points
leagues, which is really similar to one

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that Nate and I play in,
which is a strikeout penalty heavy league.

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So this is where, yeah,
you get points for all these other things,

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but compared to the negative penalty from
a strikeout, you really have to

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pay attention to that case rate.
And we'll share the kind of formats either

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in the show description or somewhere on
the social medias. I don't know how

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that all works, but I think
the ny can figure that out. But

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we're going to talk about some different
guys, different players at sort of your

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top fifty level, your top two
hundred bat that might play way up in

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that particular league. And then somebody
that's a deep league target, so five

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hundred, four hundred plus in sort
of NFBC draft lingo, but maybe it

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is actually like a top two hundred
or top two fifty bat. And then

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we'll talk a little bit about some
prospects and how that might change depending on

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the kind of league that you're into, your your own personal valuation, and

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how you might want to adjust how
you look at appoints league's top one hundred

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with your own league's lens in it
does? Does that make sense? Makes

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perfect sense to me? All right? Well, Beck, well you're the

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guest, so we'll start with you, like thinking it from a top one

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00:24:56.720 --> 00:25:00.839
hundred NFBC kind of bat, you
know, going routinely in that ADP,

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but someone that might actually push for
top twenty five, top twenty value given

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your format. So we'll start with
the Beck's format. Who's a name that

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00:25:11.319 --> 00:25:15.440
might jump out that is, you
know, back end top one hundred NFBC

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value, but sits maybe in your
top twenty five for a Beck Points League

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valuation. Sure neither of these maybe
broach the top twenty five value. They

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also both play up very significantly in
a heavy K penalty format. Generally speaking,

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they are much more valuable than where
they go in roto formats. The

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two names that I have in mind
for the BES Points League is Stephen Kwan's

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not going to strike out at all, great defender, he's a compiler.

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He's going to, you know,
get six hundred, six hundred and fifty

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00:25:48.279 --> 00:25:53.079
played appearances the top of Cleveland's lineup
and is just as steady as they come.

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There is a strikeout penalty in the
Beck's Points League format, it's half

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a point. That's pretty standard,
but he plays way up there. And

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again it's by virtue of he's not
going to bleed points by way of strikeout.

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He's going to be on base a
lot, he's going to make a

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ton of contact, he's going to
compile. All of those things are extremely

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valuable. And then maybe the second
name, similar archetype or the same archetype

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more or less is Luis Rise,
who routinely goes outside the top one hundred,

378
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but also routinely finishes around the fifty
to seventy five mark in Fantrak Standard

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00:26:23.559 --> 00:26:29.599
and in this particular scoring setting in
a very similar fashion, again not striking

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out, getting on base a lot, making things happen with balls in play,

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00:26:33.319 --> 00:26:37.160
and compiling just a ton of play
appearances. Those are both great call

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outs and ones that pop on a
Beck format and certainly on a strikeout heavy

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00:26:42.599 --> 00:26:47.720
penalty format as well. I'll jump
in with a guy or two of mine

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and then we'll toss it over to
Nate. For me. One of these

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00:26:49.880 --> 00:26:56.359
guys that I think is consistently undervalued
relative to a five x five format is

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Alex Bregman. So he's another one
that has underwhelming exsit velocities but really strong

387
00:27:03.200 --> 00:27:07.160
plate discipline. You know, he
limits strikeouts really really well, especially for

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00:27:07.240 --> 00:27:11.039
someone who is kind of selling out
for the power that he has, so

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00:27:11.079 --> 00:27:15.319
trying to pull a lot of flyballs. That can lead to increased strikeout rates,

390
00:27:15.319 --> 00:27:19.279
but for Alex Bregman it does not, and he puts up you know,

391
00:27:19.519 --> 00:27:25.759
ninety to ninety five runs and RBIs
twenty twenty five home runs every year,

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00:27:26.000 --> 00:27:30.000
and that translates to really strong production
in a Beck type points league because

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he limits the strikeouts so much so
Bregman, to me, is one of

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00:27:33.400 --> 00:27:37.799
the classic archetypes of how does he
keep doing this? How do you know?

395
00:27:37.839 --> 00:27:40.920
He's sort of medium for a five
x five format, even in his

396
00:27:41.000 --> 00:27:45.759
best years, but for a points
league format he is an exceptionally good hitter

397
00:27:45.000 --> 00:27:48.880
and that translates really well. And
then the other one that I wanted to

398
00:27:48.759 --> 00:27:55.519
touch on was Xander Bogart's, who
I think some maybe have slid him down

399
00:27:55.559 --> 00:28:00.400
their dynasty boards or their prefless from
his last couple of years, But you

400
00:28:00.440 --> 00:28:03.599
look at the shape of his production, and even though some of the exit

401
00:28:03.640 --> 00:28:07.480
velocities I think are trending the wrong
way, he still provides a really really

402
00:28:07.519 --> 00:28:12.759
great return. Given points league set
up like bex where the strikeouts are limited,

403
00:28:12.799 --> 00:28:17.319
he still has power. He's fleet
enough of foot that he's going to

404
00:28:17.319 --> 00:28:22.839
swipe a bag or two or fifteen. And I think that those across the

405
00:28:22.920 --> 00:28:27.240
board production that can play up even
more in a points league rather than someone

406
00:28:27.319 --> 00:28:32.519
that maybe in your five x five
is like a steals only kind of producer

407
00:28:32.759 --> 00:28:37.480
or a home run only producer,
whereas in a points format someone like Bogarts

408
00:28:37.599 --> 00:28:41.400
or Regman, they are likely to
return top thirty, top forty, value

409
00:28:41.519 --> 00:28:47.519
and both are going, you know, after like about pick hundred in NFBCS.

410
00:28:47.559 --> 00:28:49.519
So I think those are ones that, like they become kind of superstars

411
00:28:49.720 --> 00:28:55.799
in a points league format, whereas
they are undervalued in others. May you

412
00:28:55.799 --> 00:28:57.839
got anybody? No? I mean, I think you guys kind of nailed

413
00:28:59.160 --> 00:29:00.319
the bigger ones. Yeah, I
don't. I don't know if I have

414
00:29:00.400 --> 00:29:03.200
anyone. I want to say,
is push his top twenty five that you

415
00:29:03.240 --> 00:29:07.359
guys haven't mentioned? All right,
Well, how about I don't go ahead

416
00:29:07.400 --> 00:29:11.920
back about top twenty five. I'm
just thinking as you were walking through Bregman

417
00:29:11.240 --> 00:29:15.599
and Bogie, a couple of other
names come to mind. One is Brian

418
00:29:15.640 --> 00:29:21.400
Reynolds. Probably not thought of as
an elite fantasy asset, plays very much

419
00:29:21.480 --> 00:29:23.680
so up in points formats. He
doesn't use his legs, a ton doesn't

420
00:29:23.680 --> 00:29:27.000
strike out, A ton plays for
the Pirates, So it's off and overlooked

421
00:29:27.039 --> 00:29:30.160
and is again going to get a
ton of played appearances, going to rack

422
00:29:30.279 --> 00:29:33.240
up a lot of those counting stats, going to put twenty five balls in

423
00:29:33.279 --> 00:29:37.759
the seats. One of my favorites
to target right around pick one hundred.

424
00:29:37.920 --> 00:29:41.119
I would value him closer to top
fifty, top sixty and then another one

425
00:29:41.160 --> 00:29:45.599
that has been you know, pretty
free for a while in terms of you

426
00:29:45.640 --> 00:29:48.799
know, going outside the top one
fifty. Max Munsey was also an excellent

427
00:29:49.000 --> 00:29:52.359
Dynasty asset for a very long time. I'm still kind of buying the dip

428
00:29:52.440 --> 00:29:56.200
on him, and plays really well
in the Becks Points League and any Points

429
00:29:56.279 --> 00:29:59.599
league, you know, for the
most part. I won't speak for every

430
00:29:59.640 --> 00:30:03.599
league because there are some strange ones
out there, but generally speaking, Max

431
00:30:03.640 --> 00:30:06.680
months he's been a good investment over
the last four five years. Good good

432
00:30:06.680 --> 00:30:11.000
shouts both. Royce Lewis seems like
a guy who might produce top twenty five

433
00:30:11.119 --> 00:30:15.519
ish that isn't isn't there yet in
this format, right, Yeah. I

434
00:30:15.519 --> 00:30:18.000
mean he's a guy that I think
he showed quite a bit of the ceiling

435
00:30:18.119 --> 00:30:22.400
last year. And I will say
I've tried to acquire him recently because I've

436
00:30:22.400 --> 00:30:26.440
got a couple of gaps for third
basement. It just so happens in a

437
00:30:26.440 --> 00:30:30.279
couple of my teams, and he
appears near untouchable. So I don't know

438
00:30:30.279 --> 00:30:33.279
if he's in that top one hundred
anymore. He's he's i think closer to

439
00:30:33.680 --> 00:30:37.920
at value these days, just you
know, hit five Grand Slams in a

440
00:30:37.000 --> 00:30:41.920
year and people apparently start paying attention
fair enough. But let's let's talk in

441
00:30:41.119 --> 00:30:45.079
one of those kind of funkier format
formats, Nate, this format that I

442
00:30:45.119 --> 00:30:48.279
put in there is very you know, the point scoring itself is skewed a

443
00:30:48.319 --> 00:30:51.799
little bit higher. I guess I
could have translated it down, so it

444
00:30:51.839 --> 00:30:55.240
was more on a format with some
of the other ones that we play.

445
00:30:55.279 --> 00:31:00.000
But it's very, very power heavy. So for the listeners at home,

446
00:31:00.279 --> 00:31:03.359
if you hit a home run,
solo home run is sixteen points just one

447
00:31:03.440 --> 00:31:07.680
solo home run, and a strikeout
is minus one. So you can hit

448
00:31:07.720 --> 00:31:11.839
a lot of homers or not even
that many homers and strike out an absurd

449
00:31:11.880 --> 00:31:15.480
amount of times and you're still not
dipping into the negative. So with the

450
00:31:17.599 --> 00:31:21.119
create this league, Jake Berger was
a stud in this league, I tell

451
00:31:21.160 --> 00:31:25.519
you that. So with that in
mind, though, Nate, is there

452
00:31:25.599 --> 00:31:27.920
anybody that pops to mind for you
in that, like, you know,

453
00:31:29.119 --> 00:31:33.440
call it top one hundred plus or
minus thirty picks or something, but you

454
00:31:33.440 --> 00:31:37.960
could see pushing top twenty five ish
value this upcoming year. All right,

455
00:31:37.000 --> 00:31:40.960
So someone who's kind of outside the
top one hundred but might hit a shit

456
00:31:41.039 --> 00:31:44.079
ton of home runs this year,
So what you're saying, Yeah, yeah,

457
00:31:44.119 --> 00:31:48.359
well, I mean there's I might
just start with the Reds given their

458
00:31:48.400 --> 00:31:51.559
ballparking what have you. But uh, I don't know, maybe not necessarily

459
00:31:51.599 --> 00:31:55.559
a player that I that I that's
my style. But in Canarcy on Strand

460
00:31:55.559 --> 00:31:57.440
seems like a guy who I mean, if you hit enough home runs in

461
00:31:57.440 --> 00:32:01.200
that league, like who were the
top twenty five players in that league last

462
00:32:01.279 --> 00:32:05.000
year? He seems like a guy
who could hit enough home runs. Maybe

463
00:32:05.000 --> 00:32:07.920
Berger could hit enough home runs.
I don't know where Tristan Casa sits right

464
00:32:07.920 --> 00:32:12.720
now, but he seems like you
could hit enough hit for enough power to

465
00:32:12.759 --> 00:32:15.640
be I don't know, Top twenty
five might be pushing it, but yeah,

466
00:32:15.640 --> 00:32:17.559
I don't know. I think of
the three like that's that's probably the

467
00:32:17.559 --> 00:32:22.720
one, and I think that could
push top twenty five value with with a

468
00:32:22.759 --> 00:32:24.480
full season of what he showed down
the stretch last year, I think that's

469
00:32:24.519 --> 00:32:28.960
a good shout. I'll turn over
to Beck, who jumps out in a

470
00:32:29.200 --> 00:32:31.599
power focused league like this, I
mean, Kyle Swarber's kind of the classic

471
00:32:31.640 --> 00:32:36.799
one, just a total windmill.
Almost got to fifty last year. I

472
00:32:36.799 --> 00:32:42.920
mean, he's still probably a top
fifty guy in most point scoring formats simply

473
00:32:42.960 --> 00:32:46.799
because of the power and the OBP
kind of flour there, So not a

474
00:32:46.880 --> 00:32:52.119
huge jump. I'd like sola I'd
like Solaire there too, the large park

475
00:32:52.240 --> 00:32:55.480
home run specialist. Do you think
he's gonna hit thirty? Why not?

476
00:32:55.640 --> 00:33:00.000
I mean, obviously health and why
would that now be in him to do

477
00:33:00.039 --> 00:33:07.480
It's got a thirty home run hitter
in like twenty years since mister Barry Bonds.

478
00:33:07.640 --> 00:33:15.119
Yeah really yeah, it started seventeen
different left fielders and seventeen seasons without

479
00:33:15.400 --> 00:33:19.640
a thirty plus home run back.
He had a gob with the Royals,

480
00:33:19.759 --> 00:33:23.440
he hit a lot with the Marlins. Yeah, a different air there and

481
00:33:23.480 --> 00:33:28.039
what have you. But I don't
think I mean, if there's somebody who's

482
00:33:28.079 --> 00:33:30.279
going to do it, I think
he's a good pick to be that guy.

483
00:33:30.440 --> 00:33:36.400
Another name that comes to mind for
that format for me is Nolan Gorman.

484
00:33:36.720 --> 00:33:39.880
I think having that that's a good
run at second base with, you

485
00:33:39.920 --> 00:33:44.680
know, in a format where you're
able to stomach some of that with feels

486
00:33:44.720 --> 00:33:46.759
like a good shout. Maybe a
little bit deeper. Someone like Matt Wallner

487
00:33:47.000 --> 00:33:52.839
could be a very valuable outfielder despite
him being a windmill for a very long

488
00:33:52.880 --> 00:33:55.559
time, even as a minor leaguer. And I think he'll get a good

489
00:33:55.559 --> 00:33:59.359
amount of run in Minnesota, so
that might be a place where I'm trying

490
00:33:59.359 --> 00:34:02.960
to hitch my wagon for a cheaper
than true value price. We'll get into

491
00:34:04.000 --> 00:34:07.799
the deep shots here here in a
minute. Sticking in the kind of top

492
00:34:07.920 --> 00:34:13.960
tier, a guy that I really
like way above his current draft position is

493
00:34:14.239 --> 00:34:17.519
Dansby Swanson. So Swanson has been, you know, knock on wood,

494
00:34:17.519 --> 00:34:22.400
a pillar of health as well.
I know that Nate loves talking about Cubs

495
00:34:22.679 --> 00:34:25.400
and it hurts me as a Braves
fan a little bit to see him in

496
00:34:25.440 --> 00:34:30.639
that cubby blue instead of with the
Braves. But Swanson, both as a

497
00:34:30.639 --> 00:34:36.320
shortstop and one that has done a
pretty good job optimizing for his power,

498
00:34:36.519 --> 00:34:38.480
I think, is one that plays
way up in this kind of format.

499
00:34:38.519 --> 00:34:43.320
And when I was looking at my
rankings and I think this is towards the

500
00:34:43.400 --> 00:34:46.039
end of the season last year,
I was like, man, Swanson continues

501
00:34:46.079 --> 00:34:50.559
to produce in this kind of format
because he gets a lot of his production

502
00:34:50.719 --> 00:34:54.000
out of his home runs. But
he's also one of those compilers and he's

503
00:34:54.039 --> 00:34:58.920
on base a lot. He got
I think six hundred and fifty played appearances

504
00:34:59.039 --> 00:35:01.519
last year. He's played in one
hundred and sixty games for like the last

505
00:35:01.679 --> 00:35:07.639
three seasons. And doing that and
showing that health as a skill and hitting

506
00:35:07.679 --> 00:35:12.519
at the top of the a pretty
good Cubs lineup is a good way to,

507
00:35:13.000 --> 00:35:16.239
uh, to optimize for your your
points leagues too. So Swanson,

508
00:35:16.280 --> 00:35:21.320
even though he's like in the one
twenties, I think for NFBCS, think

509
00:35:21.320 --> 00:35:25.960
he's going to return like top thirty
hitter value for this upcoming season, power

510
00:35:27.039 --> 00:35:30.280
heavy focus league. So he's one
if you've got you might knock on the

511
00:35:30.320 --> 00:35:36.360
door and see if Swanson's available,
if your leak rewards that kind of that

512
00:35:36.480 --> 00:35:39.039
shape of production. I think your
guy Ozuna is another one too. I

513
00:35:39.039 --> 00:35:43.039
don't think we oh yeah mentioned him. Yeah, he's a good one for

514
00:35:43.079 --> 00:35:47.480
sure, for sure, My guy
Ozuna from the Braves your best friend.

515
00:35:47.559 --> 00:35:51.480
That's such a good meme. That's
it's so memorable. Well, we already

516
00:35:51.480 --> 00:35:54.440
started diving into it a little bit, but let's let's go aroun deeper.

517
00:35:54.679 --> 00:35:59.760
And we've already mentioned a couple of
names I think from this tier. You

518
00:35:59.760 --> 00:36:02.599
know, somebody that's like maybe a
top two hundred, top two fifty bat

519
00:36:02.719 --> 00:36:07.480
in a five x five league,
but is firmly top one hundred or top

520
00:36:07.519 --> 00:36:12.000
seventy five for you. And I'll
kick it off just with the new Stephen

521
00:36:12.079 --> 00:36:15.599
Kwan, we'll call him with Jung
Huli, who like Stephen Kwan. I

522
00:36:15.599 --> 00:36:19.480
think he's gonna have similar shape of
production and that he's not going to strike

523
00:36:19.519 --> 00:36:21.679
out a lot. He's not going
to hit for a ton of power,

524
00:36:21.920 --> 00:36:27.519
but isn't gonna cause a lot of
negative points for your teams, and it

525
00:36:27.679 --> 00:36:30.920
might take a little bit for him
to adjust to the league. So this

526
00:36:30.199 --> 00:36:37.079
again is like your prior shouldn't change
very much with the first weeks of the

527
00:36:37.119 --> 00:36:42.280
season, and that includes spring training. So if Lee struggles as you might

528
00:36:42.320 --> 00:36:45.280
expect him to, because folks like
Hassan Kim did the same in the transition

529
00:36:45.320 --> 00:36:49.599
from the KBO to the MLB,
you might want to keep an eye on

530
00:36:49.719 --> 00:36:53.920
the Jung Huli owner and see if
they are expressing frustration over the early production,

531
00:36:54.119 --> 00:37:00.239
especially in a strikeout penalty heavy league, because that I have a feeling

532
00:37:00.280 --> 00:37:04.599
that he's going to be a really, really strong asset that is currently going

533
00:37:04.639 --> 00:37:07.320
you know about two hundred, you
know, late first round in fypdes is

534
00:37:07.360 --> 00:37:12.800
what I've seen, and in redrafts
like late two hundreds or sorry, early

535
00:37:12.840 --> 00:37:17.400
two hundreds, but in your strikeout
heavy penalty formats, that might be a

536
00:37:17.440 --> 00:37:21.480
really good target, especially if he
scuffles out of the gate, because I

537
00:37:21.480 --> 00:37:24.079
think he's going to look a lot
like Stephen Kwan with maybe a couple more

538
00:37:24.119 --> 00:37:29.679
homers and a little bit lower batting
average at least to start, but any

539
00:37:30.199 --> 00:37:34.280
very very similar production. So Joha
Lee is one that I'm certainly targeting in

540
00:37:34.320 --> 00:37:37.360
that mid tier range, and I'm
hoping to acquire a share to maybe in

541
00:37:37.920 --> 00:37:40.519
one of the leagues that we play
in. Nate Beck, who you got

542
00:37:40.559 --> 00:37:45.599
in this kind of mid tier range, like thinking about or a strikeout penalty

543
00:37:45.639 --> 00:37:49.599
heavy format or a BEX league points
league format that is in that kind of

544
00:37:49.639 --> 00:37:52.400
two hundred ish range, but you
think is firmly better than that. Yeah,

545
00:37:52.440 --> 00:37:55.440
I really like the Jung Huli shout. That's a great one. The

546
00:37:55.960 --> 00:38:00.880
name that I had in mind is
going or I just checked going earlier than

547
00:38:00.880 --> 00:38:04.239
two hundred. So if we need
to get a deeper name, swing back

548
00:38:04.239 --> 00:38:07.559
to me in a minute or two. But YONDI Diaz is one that is

549
00:38:07.920 --> 00:38:13.360
kind of continuously undervalued across all points
formats and only gets more valuable the steeper

550
00:38:13.400 --> 00:38:15.519
your K penalty is. Hits the
crap out of the ball is learning to

551
00:38:15.639 --> 00:38:19.960
put the ball in the air more
often, doesn't strike out. I like

552
00:38:20.039 --> 00:38:23.239
that raised lineup even without a pretty
notable you know, missing piece there,

553
00:38:23.519 --> 00:38:28.239
and he goes later than he should
all the time. And then maybe you

554
00:38:28.280 --> 00:38:30.840
know another name that I like in
K penalty formats that is going later is

555
00:38:30.840 --> 00:38:36.280
Bryson Stott. He is projected for
like a seventeen percent strikeout rate. Obviously,

556
00:38:36.400 --> 00:38:38.559
as your penalty it gets a little
bit higher, He's going to play

557
00:38:38.679 --> 00:38:43.320
up even more simply because you're avoiding
the loss of that point kind of broke

558
00:38:43.360 --> 00:38:46.159
out a little bit last year.
I like him as a cog in the

559
00:38:46.199 --> 00:38:51.199
potent Phillies lineup, and you're gonna
get him really cheap. He might also

560
00:38:51.280 --> 00:38:55.519
carry multi positional eligibility in some formats, which is a nice bonus, nice

561
00:38:55.519 --> 00:38:59.679
one. I'm a big DZ fan. I've got in a bunch of places,

562
00:39:00.719 --> 00:39:02.320
Nate, who you got who you
got in this kind of range for?

563
00:39:02.639 --> 00:39:05.960
I mean, I know Beck will
back me up here. But I

564
00:39:06.079 --> 00:39:07.880
like seal Relick. I mean,
this might be a little bit deeper than

565
00:39:07.920 --> 00:39:12.719
the range we're talking about, but
yes, this sort of scoring, let's

566
00:39:12.760 --> 00:39:15.599
go. Yes, what is it
about Frelick's production that speaks to you,

567
00:39:15.679 --> 00:39:19.800
Nate? Well, you know he's
pretty high contact, right, he's speedy.

568
00:39:19.960 --> 00:39:22.119
I don't know how many bags do
you think he's going to steal back?

569
00:39:22.159 --> 00:39:25.360
Because I've gone back and forth between
thinking that he could be like a

570
00:39:25.480 --> 00:39:30.800
forty bag guy to yeah, maybe
not so much. Yeah, I don't

571
00:39:30.840 --> 00:39:34.280
know, And this is more conjecture
on my part than it is anything else.

572
00:39:34.320 --> 00:39:38.039
But the Brewers are feigning like they
might move him all over the diamond.

573
00:39:38.320 --> 00:39:42.480
He may not be as focused on
swiping bags if he's trying to play

574
00:39:42.719 --> 00:39:47.079
elite outfield defense and also pick up
second base and third base duties. He

575
00:39:47.360 --> 00:39:52.119
certainly has some straight line speed.
He's shown a propensity to steal a bag

576
00:39:52.199 --> 00:39:55.079
here and there. I think of
him as more of a twenty solen based

577
00:39:55.119 --> 00:39:59.320
guy. But at the same time, who knows what the rule changes his

578
00:39:59.599 --> 00:40:02.920
second full year as a pro or
as a big leaguer. I should say

579
00:40:04.239 --> 00:40:07.079
maybe he is a little bit more
comfortable swiping a bag and then the other

580
00:40:07.119 --> 00:40:10.079
thing that's a little bit difficult is
the Bruce have ANUE head coach. I

581
00:40:10.119 --> 00:40:15.800
don't really know what his philosophy is
going to be on stealing bases and how

582
00:40:15.800 --> 00:40:20.000
aggressive they're going to be. So
the range of outcomes for his kind of

583
00:40:20.079 --> 00:40:23.519
stolen based output I think lives between
like fifteen and thirty. Well, I

584
00:40:23.559 --> 00:40:29.320
will say when when Pat Murphy coached
against yours, truly their team stole a

585
00:40:29.360 --> 00:40:32.440
lot of bases. That was a
huge part of the ASU teams when he

586
00:40:32.480 --> 00:40:36.880
was the head coach there. So
I don't think he's had a big league

587
00:40:37.119 --> 00:40:39.159
head coaching job before, right,
He's a bench coach guy. Yeah,

588
00:40:39.199 --> 00:40:43.719
So I mean maybe he'll revert to
some of those roots when back when he

589
00:40:43.760 --> 00:40:45.519
was the boss at ASU, it
was just a lot of fun to watch.

590
00:40:45.679 --> 00:40:49.280
I would be very pleased if that
were the style of ball we were

591
00:40:49.280 --> 00:40:52.079
playing with we my team and I
if that was the style of ball we

592
00:40:52.119 --> 00:40:57.320
were playing with such a young group
of players, I would enjoy that a

593
00:40:57.320 --> 00:41:00.639
lot. Just to better answer your
question, Matt, just Janaire speaking,

594
00:41:00.920 --> 00:41:04.559
the guy who's strikeouts aren't going to
be shouldn't be that big of a deal.

595
00:41:04.599 --> 00:41:06.159
He's going to put the ball in
the play a lot, but he

596
00:41:06.239 --> 00:41:10.239
just he doesn't have probably like the
impact that makes him super enticing in your

597
00:41:10.400 --> 00:41:14.559
rotisserie leagues and what have you.
And how do folks say that he's a

598
00:41:14.639 --> 00:41:17.559
very good pure hitter. But yeah, he's a very good pure here,

599
00:41:17.639 --> 00:41:21.360
but I don't want him on my
fantasy team, on my road road team

600
00:41:22.000 --> 00:41:27.320
era, and he's a Hall of
Famer. I think Frelic's a great one

601
00:41:27.400 --> 00:41:30.039
and fits really well with that archetype
that we're kind of hitting on here with

602
00:41:30.119 --> 00:41:36.920
Lee and Kwan, and I dropped
to these points in the fangrafts auction calculator

603
00:41:37.000 --> 00:41:40.639
and Frelick it says in their redrafts
are going to ninety one, but he's

604
00:41:40.800 --> 00:41:45.719
ninety second overall as a hitter.
So that is like huge value in this

605
00:41:45.800 --> 00:41:49.360
kind of league. And so again
it just speaks to you if you know

606
00:41:49.400 --> 00:41:52.000
your format, you can get some
real steals in here, and to go

607
00:41:52.079 --> 00:41:58.400
even like deeper, like like our
B side territory that I like, Richie

608
00:41:58.400 --> 00:42:02.239
Pelacio's something like that too, as
a potential real late round or waiver wire

609
00:42:02.400 --> 00:42:07.920
type guy. It's very high either
the show sheet, we've got another layer

610
00:42:07.960 --> 00:42:15.920
deeper to go all right man in
this same range for like power production,

611
00:42:15.119 --> 00:42:21.719
I was surprised at how well our
guy Ezekiel Tovar showed out. So this

612
00:42:21.840 --> 00:42:24.840
is in that same kind of like
going after pick two hundred, but for

613
00:42:25.400 --> 00:42:30.079
power focused league. The thing that
I think plays up for Tovar in that

614
00:42:30.199 --> 00:42:34.199
kind of league is A He's going
to get a lot of plate appearances like

615
00:42:34.239 --> 00:42:37.199
that's still going to be a productive
offense, and he's going to hit near

616
00:42:37.199 --> 00:42:40.519
the top of it. And B
his problem isn't hitting the ball, it's

617
00:42:40.760 --> 00:42:45.760
that he tries to swing at everything
and that can play up in this kind

618
00:42:45.760 --> 00:42:49.199
of format. So even if it
leads to a slightly elevated strikeout rate,

619
00:42:49.280 --> 00:42:52.880
he still hits the ball reasonably hard. He is a good runner, and

620
00:42:52.920 --> 00:42:57.639
I think plays up in some points
leagues higher than you might expect given how

621
00:42:57.679 --> 00:43:00.440
he had sort of an up and
down early introduction to the major leagues.

622
00:43:00.559 --> 00:43:04.960
But also something I think Nate has
touched on before is that he's still so

623
00:43:05.199 --> 00:43:08.599
young that this is a guy that
we should expect some progression from, some

624
00:43:08.679 --> 00:43:13.880
growth from the ink is not yet
dry on the kind of player that Tovar

625
00:43:14.000 --> 00:43:16.079
is going to be, and in
this kind of a format. I think

626
00:43:16.119 --> 00:43:21.440
he plays up quite a bit.
I like Tovar in your points formats,

627
00:43:21.519 --> 00:43:23.719
maybe even more than I do in
your five x five formats, and I'm

628
00:43:23.760 --> 00:43:28.519
a fan in that format too,
but it's perhaps not in like the A

629
00:43:28.599 --> 00:43:31.400
Beck kind of format or a strikeout
heavy penalty format, because I still think

630
00:43:31.400 --> 00:43:36.519
he has work to do on taking
walks and limiting his strikeouts. But I

631
00:43:36.679 --> 00:43:39.880
like the rest of what he does, and that's not insignificant in a power

632
00:43:39.920 --> 00:43:44.840
focus league. So even though he's
going around pick two hundred in ADP,

633
00:43:45.280 --> 00:43:49.800
I think he could push top fifty
value this year with just a tiny step

634
00:43:49.840 --> 00:43:52.639
forward. So Tovar's a shout that
I thought Nate would even appreciate, you

635
00:43:52.719 --> 00:43:57.519
bet. The last one that I
wanted to touch on in this kind of

636
00:43:57.519 --> 00:44:01.280
top two hundred range is a guy
that anybody who plays in OBP or points

637
00:44:01.360 --> 00:44:07.760
league formats knows is a top performer
is Brandon Nemo. And you don't get

638
00:44:07.800 --> 00:44:12.199
points for sprinting down to first base, at least in any of the leagues

639
00:44:12.199 --> 00:44:15.400
that I play in after taking a
walk, But the man takes so many

640
00:44:15.440 --> 00:44:17.400
walks he gets to do that sprint
a lot, and you know, maybe

641
00:44:17.440 --> 00:44:22.360
you can weasel that into your points
formats updates. But Brandon Nimo, with

642
00:44:22.800 --> 00:44:28.159
such an OBP focus format, he's
turned himself into a hitter that hits for

643
00:44:28.519 --> 00:44:31.800
enough power that he can really take
advantage of the walks. He knows the

644
00:44:31.840 --> 00:44:37.679
strike zone really really well, and
it plays up huge in most points league

645
00:44:37.760 --> 00:44:42.679
formats such that, like, I
think he's firmly a top fifty hitter,

646
00:44:42.880 --> 00:44:46.239
even though in a five x five
format he's going around pick like one eighty

647
00:44:46.360 --> 00:44:51.400
or something. So Nimo's another one
that it almost doesn't matter your points league

648
00:44:51.440 --> 00:44:54.559
formats. If there's any OBP bent
at all, he's gonna play way way

649
00:44:54.639 --> 00:44:59.239
up. All right, Beck,
kick us off here. Top five hundred,

650
00:44:59.320 --> 00:45:00.880
so five hundred plus or minus one
hundred, you know, like in

651
00:45:01.239 --> 00:45:07.239
that pretty deep range. But someone
that you think is like twelve team relevant,

652
00:45:07.360 --> 00:45:09.440
so top two hundred, top two
fifty hitter in that kind of a

653
00:45:09.480 --> 00:45:14.320
format, who you got for these
deeper leagues, and you know, pick

654
00:45:14.360 --> 00:45:16.599
a format and go from there.
Yeah, I'm going to focus on power

655
00:45:16.719 --> 00:45:21.199
first, just because I think that
is where the most names are popping for

656
00:45:21.280 --> 00:45:22.559
me. The first is going to
be we're going to talk about more Cubs

657
00:45:22.639 --> 00:45:30.280
Nate, so just beware. But
the two headed monster that is Patrick Wisdom

658
00:45:30.400 --> 00:45:34.480
and Christopher Morel. Less so Morell. I think there's a very loud contingent

659
00:45:34.639 --> 00:45:39.079
of Christopher Morel fans, and I
would imagine his ADP is not quite as

660
00:45:39.239 --> 00:45:44.840
deep so as to qualify for this
category. But Patrick Wisdom for sure always

661
00:45:44.880 --> 00:45:49.280
been kind of a load to mid
thirties strikeout guy, but a ton of

662
00:45:49.320 --> 00:45:52.239
power. And so if you're being
rewarded for that and you're not really being

663
00:45:52.280 --> 00:45:55.159
penalized for strikeouts, I think that
is a place where you could throw a

664
00:45:55.239 --> 00:45:59.719
dart and you know, find yourself
with a top two fifty player or someone

665
00:45:59.760 --> 00:46:04.039
who is twelve team relevant at a
shallower position. The other thing, you

666
00:46:04.119 --> 00:46:07.159
know, that is maybe important to
chat about here when we're getting into really

667
00:46:07.239 --> 00:46:14.159
deep names who have obvious bats ball
or played discipline issues, is that strikeouts

668
00:46:14.519 --> 00:46:17.760
can be an existential threat to playing
time. You've certainly seen that play out

669
00:46:19.039 --> 00:46:22.599
with Patrick Wisdom throughout his career.
At the same time, he's maybe an

670
00:46:22.599 --> 00:46:29.000
injury or some some roster kerfuffle away
from being a very relevant player, and

671
00:46:29.079 --> 00:46:31.920
so as the season plays on,
I'm not saying go out and roster Patrick

672
00:46:31.920 --> 00:46:36.079
Wisdom in a twelve team format.
But if you're going to take a stab,

673
00:46:36.320 --> 00:46:38.360
you know, at the very end
of fifty round draft and hold that

674
00:46:38.400 --> 00:46:43.239
somehow has you know this format,
that might be a good stab, or

675
00:46:43.440 --> 00:46:45.440
you know, just pay attention to
what's going on with the Cubs. There's

676
00:46:45.480 --> 00:46:50.880
obviously Michael Bush might be in line
for some starts at third base. Chris

677
00:46:50.920 --> 00:46:52.840
Morel again, very similar player,
a lot of swing and miss, a

678
00:46:52.880 --> 00:46:57.599
lot of power there. But I
think that's a place you could train your

679
00:46:57.639 --> 00:47:00.199
attention. And then a deep name
that I've actually run out in you know,

680
00:47:00.239 --> 00:47:06.960
some twenty four or thirty team points
formats at first base is Ryan Noda.

681
00:47:07.199 --> 00:47:13.519
Similar issues with plate discipline and contact
ability, but huge power on a

682
00:47:13.599 --> 00:47:16.119
bad team. Sometimes you got to
turn over some rocks to find what you're

683
00:47:16.159 --> 00:47:20.079
looking for there, especially if you're
in a very deep league. Ryan Noda

684
00:47:20.159 --> 00:47:23.039
is a guy that I could see
paying off pretty handsomely because nobody else is

685
00:47:23.079 --> 00:47:30.000
looking there. Nobody else is looking
in Oakland or wherever Oakland is headed for

686
00:47:30.679 --> 00:47:34.519
that kind of production. Those are
both so good back And I was going

687
00:47:34.599 --> 00:47:40.320
to talk about not that you stole
that from me. Yeah, our Wisdom

688
00:47:40.320 --> 00:47:44.360
real quick before you saw two for
them. I mean, I know it's

689
00:47:44.360 --> 00:47:46.280
spring training and whatever, but maybe
I just want to get them the most

690
00:47:46.320 --> 00:47:50.400
aide. Well, I mean they
pull them after two at bats anyways,

691
00:47:50.719 --> 00:47:52.519
yeah, right now. But I
thought that was kind of interesting. That's

692
00:47:52.559 --> 00:47:57.039
definitely a good a good shout in
this kind of a league, and Wisdom,

693
00:47:57.079 --> 00:48:00.079
I think is a really interesting one. There was an article on fangrafts

694
00:48:00.079 --> 00:48:04.960
today. Clearly I had some time
after my meetings this afternoon I was reading

695
00:48:05.000 --> 00:48:08.760
fangrafts. But Davey Andrews on Fangrafts
just wrote a great article with the title

696
00:48:08.920 --> 00:48:15.400
tromps per whiff per womps. Tromps
per womps and those kinds of guys are

697
00:48:15.480 --> 00:48:21.079
great for this format. The gist
of the article was who gets the most

698
00:48:21.199 --> 00:48:27.440
out of their balls that they really
scaled so like a barrel plus basically.

699
00:48:27.719 --> 00:48:30.320
And some of the names that pop
in this list are really really interesting.

700
00:48:30.360 --> 00:48:35.079
And Patrick Wisdom over the past four
years has like a top three name on

701
00:48:35.119 --> 00:48:37.880
this. When he hits a ball
hard, when he really gets it on

702
00:48:37.960 --> 00:48:40.400
the nails, it's a home run
like so so often. I think those

703
00:48:40.400 --> 00:48:43.920
are the kinds of guys that play
up. One of my guys that I've

704
00:48:43.920 --> 00:48:46.440
talked about on the show before and
I can't quit is Joey Gallo, who

705
00:48:46.719 --> 00:48:52.760
is right at the top of the
trompiest swompers in all of Major League Baseball.

706
00:48:52.960 --> 00:48:55.960
Joey Gallo is the epitome of this
kind of league. He's gonna a

707
00:48:57.079 --> 00:49:00.320
career batting average of one ninety seven, but he hits a crapload of homer's

708
00:49:00.639 --> 00:49:05.280
and when it doesn't matter if you
strike out two hundred times in this kind

709
00:49:05.320 --> 00:49:07.559
of a format, like Joey gallow
is going to be useful even if it's

710
00:49:07.639 --> 00:49:10.920
us a bench bat who gets four
hundred and fifty play appearances. He's got

711
00:49:10.960 --> 00:49:16.559
first base outfield eligibility. It's not
a profile without its flaws, but he's

712
00:49:16.719 --> 00:49:22.119
certainly useful in a really, really
power heavy focused format. So Joey Gallo

713
00:49:22.199 --> 00:49:27.719
fits right in there with Wisdom and
Noah as a big time power guys that

714
00:49:27.840 --> 00:49:34.280
can be useful in deeper, deeper
formats broader commentary on how to conjure up

715
00:49:34.440 --> 00:49:37.239
you know names like this. Gallo
is or has been, the poster boy,

716
00:49:37.440 --> 00:49:43.000
poster man of three true outcomes baseball
for a very long time. And

717
00:49:43.079 --> 00:49:47.239
that's almost what you're looking for for
undervalued players in a format like this is

718
00:49:47.440 --> 00:49:52.239
who is going to walk a bunch, Who's going to trump a bunch?

719
00:49:52.360 --> 00:49:54.760
As I understand it, that's to
mean a very hard hit home run,

720
00:49:54.840 --> 00:49:57.920
and who's going to strike out a
bunch where it's not going to hurt you?

721
00:49:58.159 --> 00:50:00.320
Absolutely, all right, Nate.
These guys were like we've already talked

722
00:50:00.360 --> 00:50:05.159
about, I think in in past
episodes, like Ivan Herrera. I think

723
00:50:05.199 --> 00:50:09.239
he'd be good a good catcher for
the uh you know, the higher contact

724
00:50:09.840 --> 00:50:15.480
ratio type stuff, doesn't strike out
a bunch, power wise guy that we

725
00:50:15.559 --> 00:50:17.800
talked about, but I mean Dominic
Canzone. I think if he gets the

726
00:50:17.800 --> 00:50:22.079
playing time he's got like Tobar,
if he can cut down the chase a

727
00:50:22.119 --> 00:50:25.320
little bit, I think he's got
some big home run potential there. We've

728
00:50:25.320 --> 00:50:29.920
we've talked about Richie Pelasios too.
I don't know what the playing time is

729
00:50:29.960 --> 00:50:31.519
going to be like there, but
he's a really interesting bat to me.

730
00:50:32.000 --> 00:50:37.239
High contact, might might be coming
into hitting for some more power, might

731
00:50:37.280 --> 00:50:39.440
be hitting the right shape to hit
some home runs. Yeah, and then

732
00:50:39.480 --> 00:50:43.159
and then nota was like I said, was kind of the other guys that

733
00:50:43.159 --> 00:50:45.239
that kind of came to mind for
me, one of the ones that came

734
00:50:45.280 --> 00:50:52.639
to mind thinking more of the backpoint
League or the more real life focus production

735
00:50:52.960 --> 00:50:57.800
that I think rightly he's become a
bit of a meme. But Anthony Rendon

736
00:50:58.199 --> 00:51:04.480
intrigues me. The guy has shown
solid plate skills and still has a bit

737
00:51:04.519 --> 00:51:07.800
of power in the bat. He
was hurt for all of last year more

738
00:51:07.920 --> 00:51:09.760
or less, and most of the
year before that, and doesn't really like

739
00:51:09.840 --> 00:51:14.920
baseball and doesn't really want to be
there, certainly doesn't want to answer any

740
00:51:15.000 --> 00:51:20.320
questions from the media. But I
still kind of buy the skills in the

741
00:51:20.400 --> 00:51:24.960
bat. Think he's going to continue
to be high double's decent homer source with

742
00:51:25.400 --> 00:51:29.840
solid production. He's not going to
strike out a ton, He's still going

743
00:51:29.880 --> 00:51:32.480
to walk, you know, nine
ten percent of the time, and that

744
00:51:32.880 --> 00:51:37.880
really I think plays in your points
league's formats, and especially given his lengthy

745
00:51:37.920 --> 00:51:42.159
absences over the past couple of years. If you you know, knock on

746
00:51:42.199 --> 00:51:45.199
wood and hope that those are behind
him, and he's hitting behind Trout and

747
00:51:45.239 --> 00:51:50.559
Shaneuel and Luis Rinhifo, I don't
know who else is hitting at the top

748
00:51:50.559 --> 00:51:53.480
of that lineup, but that's valuable
and this deep, I mean, he's

749
00:51:53.519 --> 00:51:57.639
going like after pick four hundred,
I think, And in your dynasty leagues,

750
00:51:57.920 --> 00:52:01.199
I bet your manager who owns same
is willing to cut bait after his

751
00:52:01.440 --> 00:52:06.719
just awful last couple of years.
So that's one that I really like for

752
00:52:06.880 --> 00:52:09.679
a Beck type format or something closer
to fan Trek standards that I think,

753
00:52:09.719 --> 00:52:13.880
even if you only get four hundred, four hundred and fifty plate appearances out

754
00:52:13.880 --> 00:52:16.719
of him, the rate stat production
is going to be pretty good. And

755
00:52:16.760 --> 00:52:21.320
when he's not playing, he's probably
on the IL and you just stash him

756
00:52:21.360 --> 00:52:23.559
on the IL and plug it in
with whatever you can pull off the wire.

757
00:52:23.639 --> 00:52:28.039
And that I like too, And
especially if you're in a league where

758
00:52:28.039 --> 00:52:30.719
you've got a lot of aisle slots
or unlimited aisle slots, I love going

759
00:52:30.800 --> 00:52:36.559
after the injured players because you add
the elite production to whatever you get off

760
00:52:36.599 --> 00:52:38.800
the waiver wire and add that up
and you're like, now you're looking at

761
00:52:38.880 --> 00:52:43.719
instead of top four hundred, top
three hundred, top two hundred player returns,

762
00:52:43.960 --> 00:52:47.719
now you're looking at that actual lineup
slot has earned you top one hundred

763
00:52:47.880 --> 00:52:52.920
value over the course of the full
year. So that's an underrated thing too,

764
00:52:52.159 --> 00:52:57.920
is trying to optimize your lineup spot
rather than just the player themselves.

765
00:52:58.039 --> 00:53:02.119
And one way to do that is
targeting oft injured stars. And I think

766
00:53:02.199 --> 00:53:07.199
Rendon still has earned our trust in
that way. And we'll we'll see how

767
00:53:07.199 --> 00:53:09.920
this year goes. I mean,
he could just not show up again for

768
00:53:10.000 --> 00:53:14.519
most of the year, but I
still like him at certainly your draft costs

769
00:53:14.920 --> 00:53:19.320
or your dynasty acquisition costs for your
competing teams here. If you're draft like

770
00:53:19.360 --> 00:53:22.239
a power focus league right now,
what we're trying to stick to, like

771
00:53:22.280 --> 00:53:28.480
twelve teams, right I'd be really
curious where Beef Goodman Hunter Goodman might be

772
00:53:28.880 --> 00:53:30.639
available to pop in your draft.
I feel like he'd be a great guy

773
00:53:30.639 --> 00:53:34.519
in a league like that, if
you could get him as a bench guy

774
00:53:34.719 --> 00:53:37.159
just out of your draft, and
then you know, if he doesn't make

775
00:53:37.199 --> 00:53:39.000
the club out the gate or struggles
where he's like, okay, cool,

776
00:53:39.039 --> 00:53:43.519
now I got my easy drop for
my first waiver way or whatever. With

777
00:53:44.000 --> 00:53:45.880
the potential in there to I mean, we know he's led the miners and

778
00:53:46.039 --> 00:53:49.960
home runs the last couple of years, like he's got it in him if

779
00:53:49.960 --> 00:53:53.519
he just has to prove the lass
final stake here absolutely, And another one

780
00:53:53.599 --> 00:53:59.360
from the Rockies too is Blackman.
Charlie Blackman, They're still going to play

781
00:53:59.440 --> 00:54:01.239
him and plug him in at the
top of the lineup again because the Rockies

782
00:54:01.280 --> 00:54:06.719
have no idea what they're doing,
like they're playing a thirty nine year old

783
00:54:06.840 --> 00:54:10.159
DH in right field a lot of
the times. But I'm just saying,

784
00:54:10.360 --> 00:54:15.639
I'm saying the guy still, the
guy still makes contact a decent amount,

785
00:54:15.920 --> 00:54:20.559
He hits line drives. Playing him
at home as part of a platoon for

786
00:54:20.760 --> 00:54:23.840
your outfield, you can do worse
across a lot of points formats. And

787
00:54:24.239 --> 00:54:28.960
I've long been a fan of Charlie
Blackman. He's been on tons of my

788
00:54:29.000 --> 00:54:32.480
teams throughout the years, and I
still think there's something of value there even

789
00:54:32.519 --> 00:54:38.159
in your fifteen team leagues if you
use him right and if you optimize him

790
00:54:38.199 --> 00:54:42.760
for home starts and all of that. But I still think the shape of

791
00:54:42.760 --> 00:54:45.400
production is going to be pretty solid
for your most of your kinds of points

792
00:54:45.480 --> 00:54:49.000
leagues. For points, yeah,
that's a good call. And Matt,

793
00:54:49.079 --> 00:54:52.440
just for the record, I don't
think there was one young Rockies bath from

794
00:54:52.480 --> 00:54:58.159
last year that I did not see
praise Charlie Blackman for helping them last season.

795
00:54:58.280 --> 00:55:00.159
So I love him. I love
him. He's there's value in that,

796
00:55:00.239 --> 00:55:06.440
and that is why my friend.
Indeed, I've got a couple more

797
00:55:06.480 --> 00:55:08.920
that came to mind while while you
let's go, what do you got so

798
00:55:09.280 --> 00:55:12.559
some power ones? And I was
also, you know, I was helpful

799
00:55:12.599 --> 00:55:16.239
to kind of flip through NFBC ADPs. Two that come to mind immediately for

800
00:55:16.519 --> 00:55:21.239
kind of deeper picks that could pay
far better value than they're going right now.

801
00:55:21.360 --> 00:55:23.599
One is Gary Sanchez. He showed
a lot of growth in the hitter

802
00:55:23.719 --> 00:55:28.079
last year, is now in a
much friendlier ballpark, is probably going to

803
00:55:28.079 --> 00:55:31.840
split catching duties to some degree with
William Contreras. He will also DH a

804
00:55:31.840 --> 00:55:37.119
lot, and I really like him
in Miller Park. He's going around pick

805
00:55:37.159 --> 00:55:39.079
five hundred. I think I'm not
sure quick Scan had him, you know,

806
00:55:39.079 --> 00:55:44.360
between four and five hundred. Another
one Adam Duval. He has been

807
00:55:44.400 --> 00:55:47.079
super consistent in all points formats for
a long time. Doesn't like to stay

808
00:55:47.119 --> 00:55:50.880
on any given team, you know, over the last few years for longer

809
00:55:50.920 --> 00:55:53.360
than a single season. But should
you know, with enough playing time hit

810
00:55:53.679 --> 00:55:58.079
you know, twenty five twenty eight
home runs, and be very very cheap

811
00:55:58.079 --> 00:56:00.239
to acquire. So he jumps to
mind as well, all along the same

812
00:56:00.280 --> 00:56:06.000
lines as Charlie Blackman or where were
you previously? Rendon? Rendon reminded me

813
00:56:06.039 --> 00:56:08.840
of this player, Justin Turner now
with the Blue Jays. You know,

814
00:56:08.840 --> 00:56:12.960
a guy who's just been chugging along
in points formats for so long, doesn't

815
00:56:12.960 --> 00:56:15.599
strike out very often, walks a
fair bit, is going to run into

816
00:56:15.719 --> 00:56:19.840
his fair amount of home runs.
Maybe my concern for him this year is

817
00:56:19.840 --> 00:56:22.960
there are so many young players vying
for playing time at third base, and

818
00:56:23.000 --> 00:56:28.000
who knows how Toronto is going to
treat their DH. But with enough playing

819
00:56:28.039 --> 00:56:32.519
time and kind of cobbling together guys
with similar skill sets at the roster spot,

820
00:56:32.679 --> 00:56:37.239
you know, focus more on the
roster spot or the lineup spot,

821
00:56:37.360 --> 00:56:39.960
then the name could be a good
way to frankenstein your way into better production

822
00:56:40.079 --> 00:56:45.960
than the draft cost. Absolutely,
if your format likes to credit Ribby's RBI,

823
00:56:45.079 --> 00:56:49.480
is I still like jose Bray you
he was pretty good worse than last

824
00:56:49.559 --> 00:56:52.039
year? Well, he was pretty
good. I mean, so guy went

825
00:56:52.079 --> 00:56:53.920
to a new team, had a
few couple of rough months, but he

826
00:56:54.000 --> 00:56:58.760
was pretty good after that. Yeah, he's certainly closed pretty well. It's

827
00:56:58.800 --> 00:57:00.280
going to be a good offense.
I mean, he's got a long track

828
00:57:00.320 --> 00:57:04.920
record of lots of ribbies and he's
pretty dirt cheap right now. Yes,

829
00:57:05.199 --> 00:57:07.800
yes he is. He did also
make my soul leave my body. I

830
00:57:07.960 --> 00:57:13.519
was at a Twins Astros playoff game
and I was actively making fun of Dusty

831
00:57:13.599 --> 00:57:15.920
Baker for where he was hitting jose
A Brew and then he sailed the ball

832
00:57:15.960 --> 00:57:21.519
over my head in left field.
So you know, that's the way it

833
00:57:21.559 --> 00:57:25.599
goes. A classic complaining about Dusty
and the team still wins every time.

834
00:57:25.840 --> 00:57:30.920
Yeah, the only other one.
What do you guys think about Jake Crounworth.

835
00:57:30.320 --> 00:57:35.400
You think he's gonna bounce back.
I mean, he's one that I

836
00:57:35.480 --> 00:57:38.519
really liked him as a hitter for
the past few years, but it does

837
00:57:38.519 --> 00:57:45.360
seem like he's trending down. The
infield has gotten so crowded in San Diego

838
00:57:45.440 --> 00:57:49.760
that he's now playing first base.
He still retains second base eligibility in most

839
00:57:49.800 --> 00:57:52.039
places, I think, but he
might not after this year if he's gonna

840
00:57:52.119 --> 00:57:54.960
play first base all year. What
do you guys think about him? He's

841
00:57:55.000 --> 00:57:59.800
one that popped up for me.
I've got him on I think one team

842
00:57:59.840 --> 00:58:02.559
of mine and he's more of a
bench bat. But is there hope for

843
00:58:02.760 --> 00:58:07.280
a bounce back and some I think
a return to form or is this a

844
00:58:07.360 --> 00:58:12.679
continued trend where he might get pushed
out by some of the young infielders in

845
00:58:12.719 --> 00:58:15.760
San Diego. I think he might
get pushed out. There are a lot

846
00:58:15.760 --> 00:58:20.679
of promising that's there. His average
exit velocity has been trending in the wrong

847
00:58:20.719 --> 00:58:23.199
way for the last three years.
That is kind of born true in his

848
00:58:23.239 --> 00:58:27.239
home run to fly ball rate.
I think it was something like six and

849
00:58:27.320 --> 00:58:30.960
a half percent last year, just
well below the league average of nine percent.

850
00:58:31.119 --> 00:58:35.119
You know, to hold down a
first base spot, whether that be

851
00:58:35.199 --> 00:58:37.280
for the San Diego Padres or for
my fantasy team, I do want a

852
00:58:37.280 --> 00:58:39.800
little bit more from him. That
said, you know, it's not a

853
00:58:39.840 --> 00:58:44.079
disastrous profile. He's not going to
strike out a bunch. You know,

854
00:58:44.119 --> 00:58:46.880
he runs pretty league average strikeout rates. He also walks a fair bit,

855
00:58:47.079 --> 00:58:51.880
so the you know, the foundation
is there. I think it really just

856
00:58:52.119 --> 00:58:54.239
comes down to is he going to
hit the ball in the air enough and

857
00:58:55.000 --> 00:58:58.480
hard enough? You know, in
the air. I don't know that I'm

858
00:58:58.480 --> 00:59:01.480
necessarily a believer there. Yeah,
I think the only thing is he should

859
00:59:01.559 --> 00:59:07.400
still run a significantly better than league
average strikeout rate. I agree with you,

860
00:59:07.440 --> 00:59:10.119
the rest of the production is trending
the wrong direction. In San Diego

861
00:59:10.400 --> 00:59:15.760
generally isn't a great place to hit, especially for hitters like him who don't

862
00:59:15.880 --> 00:59:22.960
have quite the power of your Tatises
or your Bogart's or Machado's. So I'm

863
00:59:22.079 --> 00:59:27.000
nervous about this one. But he
is a guy that might play up a

864
00:59:27.039 --> 00:59:30.000
little bit in a points format versus
a five x five for sure, where

865
00:59:30.519 --> 00:59:36.760
he's probably not roster bowl in most
leagues or is way for fodder. But

866
00:59:37.440 --> 00:59:39.079
maybe there's something more in there.
I don't know. He kind of seems

867
00:59:39.119 --> 00:59:43.320
like should he should be like the
mark the line, like, Okay,

868
00:59:43.639 --> 00:59:45.920
I need to have my hitters on
my roster just better than him. If

869
00:59:45.960 --> 00:59:49.320
I need somebody, I'll get him, you know. Yeah, Yeah,

870
00:59:49.320 --> 00:59:53.480
I mean he was I think projected
by a couple of the projection systems for

871
00:59:53.599 --> 00:59:59.639
right around one hundred WRC plus going
for this upcoming season. So again,

872
01:00:00.000 --> 01:00:01.880
I probably want more from that from
your first base or your corner and field

873
01:00:01.880 --> 01:00:06.320
position. To Beck's point, but
yeah, just as like as as a

874
01:00:06.360 --> 01:00:09.440
waiver wire point that might be a
good line against which to judge the production

875
01:00:09.519 --> 01:00:14.159
on your current roster. Yeah.
Yeah, I will say around like one,

876
01:00:14.559 --> 01:00:17.400
the majority of my leagues are deep
leagues, so twenty teams or deeper,

877
01:00:17.719 --> 01:00:22.679
usually deeper than twenty teams, And
so I'm used to kind of peddling

878
01:00:22.760 --> 01:00:25.920
in the Jake Croninworth neighborhood, and
in twenty twenty one, I probably would

879
01:00:25.960 --> 01:00:30.000
have given up something rather valuable to
have that kind of production able to slot

880
01:00:30.079 --> 01:00:34.199
in and out of my lineup.
And so if he's able to get back

881
01:00:34.239 --> 01:00:37.679
there, especially when we're talking about
costs to acquire, it's it's not out

882
01:00:37.719 --> 01:00:39.719
of the question that he has,
you know, kind of a twenty twenty

883
01:00:39.920 --> 01:00:44.559
twenty twenty one renaissance. Things just
haven't been really trending in the right direction

884
01:00:44.599 --> 01:00:46.800
for him. So Beck, you
like twenty teamers or deeper. I currently

885
01:00:46.840 --> 01:00:52.039
don't play in any twenty team leagues, but I will say my championship ratio

886
01:00:52.159 --> 01:00:58.000
is highest in twenty team had to
head categories. Wow, And dude,

887
01:00:58.039 --> 01:01:00.760
I just played them like points leagues. I just straight up played them like

888
01:01:00.800 --> 01:01:05.079
points leagues. And I was never
the best team during the regular season,

889
01:01:05.159 --> 01:01:07.679
But I get in as, like
the sixth seed or something like that,

890
01:01:07.760 --> 01:01:10.280
and I was just trying to gear
it up to be firing at the right

891
01:01:10.320 --> 01:01:13.639
time. And yeah, yeah,
I don't know. I just always thought

892
01:01:13.639 --> 01:01:15.239
it was funny. Got into it. I was just like, man,

893
01:01:15.280 --> 01:01:17.320
I'm not sure how to play this. Just played it like a twelve team,

894
01:01:17.760 --> 01:01:21.960
fifteen teen points league, and it
were there. You go, gotta

895
01:01:22.000 --> 01:01:24.119
get hot at the right time.
Yeah. Right. One of my sixteen

896
01:01:24.159 --> 01:01:29.679
team head to head leagues that I'm
in, I have been a top four

897
01:01:29.719 --> 01:01:32.719
team every single year that I've been
in this league. It's like five years

898
01:01:32.800 --> 01:01:36.280
or something been in the top four. And you get a buy in your

899
01:01:36.280 --> 01:01:38.920
first round. So that's huge,
right, Like that's one less matchup that

900
01:01:39.000 --> 01:01:43.519
you're not rolling the dice on.
Huge. But I always lose in that

901
01:01:43.559 --> 01:01:46.199
second round to team like yours,
Nate, it's like six or seventh.

902
01:01:46.400 --> 01:01:51.840
It's coming in. Just happens to
line up their starters. Nobody cares about

903
01:01:51.840 --> 01:01:53.360
your wins in April, Dude,
they don't mean shit. I know.

904
01:01:53.719 --> 01:01:59.400
I know. At least that league
pays out for the top four in the

905
01:01:59.440 --> 01:02:02.400
regular seas and as well as the
playoffs. I'm a fan of You got

906
01:02:02.400 --> 01:02:06.960
to reward the good teams, not
just the lucky ones like me. That's

907
01:02:07.599 --> 01:02:09.239
I Actually, I don't think I
would play in a head to head league

908
01:02:09.239 --> 01:02:14.320
that didn't have some sort of regular
season payout. There's just too much variance.

909
01:02:14.360 --> 01:02:17.000
For you guys, big fans of
the NBA's in season tournament as well.

910
01:02:17.079 --> 01:02:20.920
I have no opinion. I have
no idea what you're were talking about.

911
01:02:21.159 --> 01:02:25.719
Yeah, not not a huge NBA
guy. They do they do an

912
01:02:25.760 --> 01:02:30.519
in season tournament now where it's like
so they can sell more tickets jerseys.

913
01:02:30.559 --> 01:02:35.920
I don't know. It's but the
Lakers they're pretty amp. They're pretty amped

914
01:02:35.920 --> 01:02:38.440
that they wanted this year. Those
games were actually pretty fun. There wasn't,

915
01:02:38.559 --> 01:02:42.559
you know, much of anything on
the line except for prize money for

916
01:02:42.599 --> 01:02:46.519
the players. But forwards the end
of the tournament like it felt a little

917
01:02:46.519 --> 01:02:52.840
bit like playoff basketball in the middle
of the season. Interesting. All right,

918
01:02:52.960 --> 01:02:57.320
Well, let's roll into the more
interesting thing, at least to us

919
01:02:57.400 --> 01:03:00.280
B siders, which is talking prospects. You know, anybody can go on

920
01:03:00.360 --> 01:03:06.639
fangrafts and run the auction calculator and
figure out some points stuff there. But

921
01:03:06.880 --> 01:03:10.480
the real nuance, the real deep
league players know, you got to do

922
01:03:10.559 --> 01:03:15.719
this for your prospects too. Thankfully, Nate, we've got on Beck to

923
01:03:15.840 --> 01:03:20.559
help us translate his top one hundred
points league format for some of these different

924
01:03:20.679 --> 01:03:23.000
variations that we might play. So
we're going to do kind of the same

925
01:03:23.079 --> 01:03:28.079
thing, maybe a bit quick hitter, and talk about some prospects that we

926
01:03:28.239 --> 01:03:32.000
like, that are that we think
should be a top ten valued prospect given

927
01:03:32.280 --> 01:03:37.400
these different points leagues valuations. So
same kind of thing like cream of the

928
01:03:37.400 --> 01:03:42.079
crop, middle tier, like has
value and you might you might like them

929
01:03:42.079 --> 01:03:45.360
better given the format. And then
some deeper names that we think should play

930
01:03:45.440 --> 01:03:51.599
up given the format. Let's start
with Beck format again and I'll kick us

931
01:03:51.599 --> 01:03:53.480
off with a couple of names,
and maybe we can talk about these two

932
01:03:53.519 --> 01:03:58.920
guys and as you guys think of
some other examples. I think for me,

933
01:03:59.159 --> 01:04:02.800
when I was looking at what values
kind of played up in closer to

934
01:04:02.880 --> 01:04:08.199
real world value, you know,
the high walks definitely played up. But

935
01:04:08.599 --> 01:04:12.519
the thing that kept coming back to
me was a lot of playing time.

936
01:04:12.719 --> 01:04:15.280
And the two guys that I picked
is like, I think these guys might

937
01:04:15.400 --> 01:04:20.519
be top ten valued prospects in a
Beck points leagues, if not right now,

938
01:04:20.719 --> 01:04:27.280
really soon is Pete Crow Armstrong and
Jet Williams, so neither guy.

939
01:04:27.840 --> 01:04:30.559
I think they're both kind of in
the fifties thirty to fifty for a lot

940
01:04:30.559 --> 01:04:36.440
of people, but both to me
scream as big points league value guys because

941
01:04:36.880 --> 01:04:42.760
one, for PCA, I think
he's gonna play six hundred plus played appearances

942
01:04:42.840 --> 01:04:46.639
once he makes the major leagues.
The glove is actually very very good,

943
01:04:46.920 --> 01:04:50.400
one of the very best in the
minors, and the rest of the shape

944
01:04:50.440 --> 01:04:57.159
of his production is also solid.
So I'm a little bit skeptical on the

945
01:04:57.199 --> 01:05:00.679
power, a little bit skeptical on
the hit tool. I think that his

946
01:05:00.079 --> 01:05:03.599
fly balls might help those play up
a little bit. But in your points

947
01:05:03.679 --> 01:05:06.840
leagues, the steals and then the
playing time I think are going to be

948
01:05:06.920 --> 01:05:11.320
huge. And then I've been a
big Jet Williams fan. I've been beating

949
01:05:11.320 --> 01:05:15.000
this drum for a while. I
was sold by the shape of his production

950
01:05:15.119 --> 01:05:19.440
last year, the high walks,
getting to his power and being able to

951
01:05:19.440 --> 01:05:24.239
play and up the middle position.
He's probably not a shortstop, but centerfield,

952
01:05:24.320 --> 01:05:27.679
second base. He seems like a
solid defender from my looks. I

953
01:05:27.679 --> 01:05:31.119
think that these are guys that play
way up in a points league versus a

954
01:05:31.119 --> 01:05:34.239
categories league. But I think that
might be a touch controversial. So what

955
01:05:34.239 --> 01:05:38.639
do you guys think about those guys
are? Do you have some better examples?

956
01:05:38.760 --> 01:05:42.679
I'm going to start with Jet primarily
because of a player we named earlier,

957
01:05:42.719 --> 01:05:45.199
and this was actually a comment that
you left while you were editing my

958
01:05:45.360 --> 01:05:49.559
top one hundred is the things that
Jet is going to have to be really

959
01:05:49.599 --> 01:05:54.840
good at in order to be a
top ten prospect are the same things that

960
01:05:54.880 --> 01:05:58.239
Alex Bregman is really good at,
which is pulling his fly balls in the

961
01:05:58.280 --> 01:06:01.719
air. So seeing him his name
on the rundown sheet after you know we've

962
01:06:01.760 --> 01:06:05.760
already discussed Alex Bregman makes a ton
of sense to me. I do think

963
01:06:05.800 --> 01:06:12.559
that this kind of top ten potential
also exists in Rotisseriy formats, where the

964
01:06:12.559 --> 01:06:15.800
stolen bases are going to play way
up. Maybe you know another argument in

965
01:06:15.840 --> 01:06:20.039
his favor for something like fan Trak
Standard or even a Becks points league,

966
01:06:20.079 --> 01:06:23.519
which feels very weird coming out of
my mouth, by the way, kind

967
01:06:23.559 --> 01:06:26.920
of referring to it in the third
person, But is that a stolen base

968
01:06:27.079 --> 01:06:31.039
in fan Track Standard actually carries the
same weight in terms of points scored as

969
01:06:31.079 --> 01:06:34.440
a double. And so if you're
thinking that Jet is primarily going to be

970
01:06:34.480 --> 01:06:38.760
a doubles hitter who's going to pull
his fly balls in the air to maximize

971
01:06:38.760 --> 01:06:43.280
home run output, if you are
projecting him to be a forty or fifty

972
01:06:43.320 --> 01:06:46.559
stolen base kind of guy at the
major league level, you're essentially tacking on

973
01:06:46.679 --> 01:06:50.639
forty doubles. Now, again,
you'd have to do that relative to you

974
01:06:50.679 --> 01:06:56.199
know, whatever a replacement value stolen
base figure is, but that's still excess

975
01:06:56.280 --> 01:06:59.599
value to kind of root for.
And then, if I'm reading this correctly

976
01:06:59.760 --> 01:07:02.880
the points League, a stolen base
is actually more valuable than a double.

977
01:07:02.960 --> 01:07:06.719
Total bases are one point twenty five, two bags two point five, A

978
01:07:06.719 --> 01:07:11.800
stolen base is three. Now,
success rate matters here because a caught stealing

979
01:07:11.880 --> 01:07:15.079
is minus one and a half.
But regardless, if he's racking up,

980
01:07:15.199 --> 01:07:17.320
you know, something like forty stolen
bases getting caught, you know, on

981
01:07:17.400 --> 01:07:23.119
twenty percent of his attempts, it's
still surplus value in Jet's favor. And

982
01:07:23.199 --> 01:07:27.559
so I like that shout. I
think if he can do it again against

983
01:07:27.760 --> 01:07:31.960
upper miners pitching and show that he's
able to kind of hold the baton over

984
01:07:32.000 --> 01:07:36.000
the canyon, and pull his fly
balls, and that is a skill and

985
01:07:36.079 --> 01:07:41.679
not incidental. Then I'm totally on
board with with jet I wanted to touch

986
01:07:41.719 --> 01:07:45.400
on that one in particular. Anyone
else jumped to you for thinking like that

987
01:07:45.679 --> 01:07:49.920
maybe is a little bit further down
your rankings or that you're just particularly high

988
01:07:49.920 --> 01:07:53.760
on. I know you thought deeply
about this in your top one hundred,

989
01:07:53.840 --> 01:07:58.000
but someone that might be in your
top twenty, top twenty five that other

990
01:07:58.039 --> 01:08:00.920
folks don't quite have as high and
why that might work for you. I

991
01:08:00.920 --> 01:08:05.159
think the maybe the poster child of
this, and folks who are active in

992
01:08:05.199 --> 01:08:09.599
the Dynasty dugout community are maybe a
little bit tired of me beating this drum.

993
01:08:09.679 --> 01:08:13.960
But Joey Ortiz comes to mind for
similar reasons that you cited for PCA,

994
01:08:14.280 --> 01:08:17.479
in that he is an elite infield
defender with a lot of versatility.

995
01:08:17.680 --> 01:08:21.840
He can play kind of all of
the infield positions sans first base. In

996
01:08:21.880 --> 01:08:27.800
Milwaukee, he's in a better park
now and is ostensibly going to just compile.

997
01:08:27.960 --> 01:08:30.239
He also hits the ball quite hard
and doesn't strike out very often.

998
01:08:30.399 --> 01:08:34.359
He made elite zone contact in twenty
twenty three, while his eggs of velocities

999
01:08:34.439 --> 01:08:38.119
jumped her over year, and so
I'm a big fan. Kind of the

1000
01:08:38.159 --> 01:08:42.000
demerits or the detractors in his profile
are going to be that he puts the

1001
01:08:42.000 --> 01:08:45.279
ball on the ground too often,
and I think that's the direct result of

1002
01:08:45.560 --> 01:08:48.520
a little bit of an unsavory chase
rate. He chased at like a thirty

1003
01:08:48.520 --> 01:08:53.840
three percent clip in twenty twenty three. And so if he's able to cut

1004
01:08:53.920 --> 01:08:58.199
down on that out of zone swing
or perhaps make less contact when he's swinging

1005
01:08:58.239 --> 01:09:00.359
out of the zone, I think
his launch angle wi naturally improve and that'll

1006
01:09:00.359 --> 01:09:02.760
help him play up. And again, you know, part of the driver

1007
01:09:02.840 --> 01:09:06.760
here is that he's going to be
playing a lot because he's an excellent defender.

1008
01:09:06.880 --> 01:09:10.199
I like that one a lot.
I'm a big Joey Ortiz fan.

1009
01:09:10.840 --> 01:09:14.680
Not too sizzling here. Like back, I think you gave both these guys

1010
01:09:14.720 --> 01:09:18.760
pretty high ranks in your points But
like if you were to put Colson Montgomery

1011
01:09:18.840 --> 01:09:23.319
or Chased a louder like in the
top ten already for points leagues, I

1012
01:09:23.359 --> 01:09:27.399
wouldn't argue against that. Agreed.
They both landed in the fifteen to twenty

1013
01:09:27.479 --> 01:09:30.800
range For me Y, I think
Colson might have been fourteen, and yeah,

1014
01:09:30.920 --> 01:09:32.279
I would have a hard time arguing
with anybody that wanted to push them

1015
01:09:32.279 --> 01:09:35.000
as high as eight, nine or
ten for similar reasons. You know,

1016
01:09:35.039 --> 01:09:39.560
a great plate discipline, ability to
draw a walk, figure to project for

1017
01:09:39.640 --> 01:09:42.720
above average power at the major league
level, chased a latter hit a home

1018
01:09:42.800 --> 01:09:46.720
run yesterday, like I was agast
at it was majestic, And yeah,

1019
01:09:46.760 --> 01:09:51.000
I think they play well kind of
in any points format, particularly the best

1020
01:09:51.039 --> 01:09:54.960
points league, where you know,
drawing a walk or a hit by pitch

1021
01:09:55.319 --> 01:10:00.199
is twice as valuable as a strikeout
is negative realize this until I looked at

1022
01:10:00.199 --> 01:10:04.119
a couple of my points leagues,
that they value a stolen base the same

1023
01:10:04.199 --> 01:10:06.479
value as a home run. Now, granted, with a home run you

1024
01:10:06.520 --> 01:10:10.560
get a run and an RBI and
all that other stuff added to it,

1025
01:10:10.640 --> 01:10:14.119
right, so it's not as valuable. But a guy like Bradfield, even

1026
01:10:14.239 --> 01:10:16.720
in point leagues, has become more
interested in me. I mean, if

1027
01:10:16.720 --> 01:10:21.520
that guy steals a crab ton of
bases and you're in a league like that,

1028
01:10:21.880 --> 01:10:25.760
he's going to be just as valuable
as some of your power hitters.

1029
01:10:26.199 --> 01:10:30.079
Let's let's use that as a jump
off to talk about the k penalty side

1030
01:10:30.119 --> 01:10:34.279
of things, because I also jotted
Bradfield down for the next tier down.

1031
01:10:34.439 --> 01:10:40.000
Really am sorry I did no,
but it's it's a great point somebody that

1032
01:10:40.119 --> 01:10:44.800
I think in those K penalty kinds
of leagues at al Amador, I think

1033
01:10:44.880 --> 01:10:48.359
that's like a top five kind of
prospect in those leagues. Jackson Merrill,

1034
01:10:48.600 --> 01:10:54.840
I think is another one that he's
with the proximity, with the skills,

1035
01:10:54.840 --> 01:10:59.359
with the bat. I think he's
one that is getting underrated in some points

1036
01:10:59.439 --> 01:11:03.000
leagues, but that next year down
sort of the guys who are outside of

1037
01:11:03.079 --> 01:11:06.520
most top one hundreds, but I
think should be firmly in a top one

1038
01:11:06.600 --> 01:11:10.760
hundred. Bradfield was the very first
one I thought of. Nate. I

1039
01:11:10.920 --> 01:11:14.840
just was in an FYPD in a
league that's kind of similar points to this

1040
01:11:15.279 --> 01:11:18.399
really heavy strikeout penalty. I didn't
have any picks. I'd sold all my

1041
01:11:18.520 --> 01:11:23.760
early picks, so I wasn't getting
your Colt Emerson's the elite talents, you

1042
01:11:23.800 --> 01:11:27.199
know, So I was having to
play a little bit farther down the FYPD

1043
01:11:27.600 --> 01:11:30.279
ranks, and Bradfield was one of
my very first targets. I think I

1044
01:11:30.319 --> 01:11:34.760
took Joindery Vargas first, Joiner Vargas
first, and then Bradfield was my next

1045
01:11:34.800 --> 01:11:41.520
pick because he has like a two
percent swinging strike rate last year, you

1046
01:11:41.560 --> 01:11:45.119
know, small sample one hundred plate
appearances or something, but two percent was

1047
01:11:45.279 --> 01:11:50.800
insane. And he is absolutely incredible
on the basis like if you if people

1048
01:11:50.920 --> 01:11:56.560
haven't watched him steal bases, I
don't think there's a good comp for this

1049
01:11:56.680 --> 01:12:00.840
because even someone like Ruiz Estuary Ruiz, who who is a prolific base steeler,

1050
01:12:01.119 --> 01:12:04.439
he's not as good at it as
Bradfield is. He might be as

1051
01:12:04.520 --> 01:12:11.319
fast or even faster, but Bradfield
was insane in a ball and in high

1052
01:12:11.319 --> 01:12:15.600
A he would get on first because
he's got great plate discipline too, tons

1053
01:12:15.640 --> 01:12:18.680
of walks, and then three pitches
later he's on third. Like he would

1054
01:12:18.720 --> 01:12:23.359
bluff a steal and everyone would be
all out of sorts, and then the

1055
01:12:23.399 --> 01:12:27.399
next pitch the pitcher would pull it
down, it bounce and he was already

1056
01:12:27.439 --> 01:12:31.079
going and he'd have second base stolen. He's an exceptionally talented base steeler.

1057
01:12:31.239 --> 01:12:36.960
Plus his OBP skills I think are
way underrated, and he's an incredible points

1058
01:12:36.960 --> 01:12:42.000
target just for those two things.
Now he's never gonna hit for power,

1059
01:12:42.239 --> 01:12:45.159
like the just the swing the way
it looks. But I think that because

1060
01:12:45.159 --> 01:12:50.159
he's so exceptionally good at the other
things, he's someone that I think is

1061
01:12:50.199 --> 01:12:56.279
like a top fifty value depending on
your format. So I definitely wanted to

1062
01:12:56.319 --> 01:12:58.640
highlight him, Nate, and that
that was a good shout. He did

1063
01:12:58.680 --> 01:13:02.359
get some consideration for the top hundred
when I was kind of starting in spreadsheet

1064
01:13:02.359 --> 01:13:06.079
for him, trying to figure out
how exactly might I group these players into

1065
01:13:06.119 --> 01:13:10.439
tiers, and he was, you
know, maybe in the top one fifty

1066
01:13:10.720 --> 01:13:15.479
ish, eventually fell out of consideration. But there is something to watching him

1067
01:13:15.800 --> 01:13:18.600
on defense and on the base paths
that is, I think you said it

1068
01:13:18.680 --> 01:13:23.159
majestic. There are players like as
sur Ruiz who steal a lot of basses

1069
01:13:23.439 --> 01:13:27.680
and it's exciting and it's very fun, but it's not necessarily beautiful in the

1070
01:13:27.720 --> 01:13:30.840
way that he is when he's on
the base path. So Bradfield very fun

1071
01:13:30.880 --> 01:13:34.239
to watch. Also, you know, an elite defender. So if we're

1072
01:13:34.239 --> 01:13:39.560
going to stay on you know,
the path of Hey Pca Joey Ortiz in

1073
01:13:39.640 --> 01:13:43.319
a similar mold, I think,
you know, Bradfield might even play,

1074
01:13:43.560 --> 01:13:48.159
you know, in Baltimore sooner than
people think, simply because the floor of

1075
01:13:48.199 --> 01:13:53.920
skills there is so so high.
I'm not sure they have another true center

1076
01:13:53.960 --> 01:13:58.319
fielder like Beavers might be able to
make it out there. I just I'm

1077
01:13:58.359 --> 01:14:01.079
not sure they've got anybody else that's
like a slam dunk. This guy can

1078
01:14:01.119 --> 01:14:04.720
play centerfield, and I'm pretty sure
Bradfield is that kind of guy. That's

1079
01:14:04.760 --> 01:14:09.199
another point, Like, yeah,
it's crowded there in Baltimore, and even

1080
01:14:09.199 --> 01:14:11.560
some of the other guys in Baltimore
that I really like, like you'r Matt

1081
01:14:11.600 --> 01:14:15.239
Corvas and some of the other guys. Some of those guys it might be

1082
01:14:15.279 --> 01:14:18.359
harder to find PT for. But
an elite up the middle defender who has

1083
01:14:18.479 --> 01:14:23.239
really weird shaped production, give me
that guy all day. I was just

1084
01:14:23.279 --> 01:14:25.760
going to say, the other guy
I see on your sheet for the k

1085
01:14:25.920 --> 01:14:30.760
penalties, Matt Beck. Did Kevin
McGonagall get any consideration for your top one

1086
01:14:30.840 --> 01:14:35.000
hundred points list? He did,
Obviously, he did not make it cut.

1087
01:14:36.319 --> 01:14:42.800
He actually had some pretty sterling reviews
by both Baseball America and Baseball Perspectus

1088
01:14:42.920 --> 01:14:45.119
as a guy who is pretty firmly
hit over power. Some of that is

1089
01:14:45.159 --> 01:14:48.960
driven by his stature. But you
know, when you're considering that the majority

1090
01:14:48.960 --> 01:14:53.760
of points formats do you have a
K penalty fantrak standard does not. He

1091
01:14:53.800 --> 01:14:58.720
did get some consideration there as a
pretty great bat to ball prep. And

1092
01:14:58.760 --> 01:15:00.279
again, you know, this is
so thing, where do you want to

1093
01:15:00.319 --> 01:15:04.800
base a top one hundred case on
good bats ball over a short sample post

1094
01:15:04.920 --> 01:15:11.079
draft and some kind of reviews from
him as a prep as a good you

1095
01:15:11.079 --> 01:15:15.039
know, in zone contact bat you
could certainly the physical tools don't overwhelm me

1096
01:15:15.560 --> 01:15:18.039
in the same way that some other
preps do. And then you know,

1097
01:15:18.079 --> 01:15:21.920
I would also think about there were
evaluators who were willing to put a seven

1098
01:15:23.079 --> 01:15:26.920
or an eight on Tamar Johnson's hit
tool prior to the draft, and then

1099
01:15:26.960 --> 01:15:30.439
he ran like forty to forty five
grade zone contact rates in the Florida State

1100
01:15:30.520 --> 01:15:33.800
League. And so all of that
to say, kind of pinning down a

1101
01:15:33.920 --> 01:15:39.520
prep hit tool without much to go
on in the way of professional data is

1102
01:15:39.560 --> 01:15:43.319
really difficult. And so McGonagall,
you know, was probably a first draft

1103
01:15:43.359 --> 01:15:45.000
guy. When I have the whole
list out to you know, maybe two

1104
01:15:45.119 --> 01:15:48.880
hundred bats and one hundred pitchers he
was in there. I do think when

1105
01:15:48.880 --> 01:15:53.119
I expand these ranks out to two
fifty, he'll feature, you know,

1106
01:15:53.199 --> 01:15:56.520
somewhere in the one to fifty range. But I was actually I was actually

1107
01:15:56.560 --> 01:15:59.920
just kind of kind of poking a
little bit there. But and Joe,

1108
01:16:00.359 --> 01:16:02.720
but uh, he is definitely a
guy who I think if you're if you're

1109
01:16:02.720 --> 01:16:05.640
a rod Oh player, I don't
think you're going to understand how valuable he

1110
01:16:05.720 --> 01:16:11.479
can be in right totally. Maybe
it's pretty, it's that's a that's a

1111
01:16:11.520 --> 01:16:15.800
pretty swing man, just so many
things that my back ass looks for in

1112
01:16:15.880 --> 01:16:20.119
swings like he's got it. Well, what I'll say about you, Nate,

1113
01:16:20.279 --> 01:16:24.720
is that I appreciate that you watch
all of these guys. There are

1114
01:16:24.920 --> 01:16:29.720
a lot of folks who, you
know, may rely on what the fangrafts

1115
01:16:29.760 --> 01:16:32.239
page says about them. There's nothing
wrong with that, But there is also

1116
01:16:32.399 --> 01:16:36.640
something to be said about seeing a
player on the field and what they look

1117
01:16:36.760 --> 01:16:42.319
like while they're compiling, you know, the stat line and understanding you know

1118
01:16:42.399 --> 01:16:45.520
to what degree that may translate simply
by the way they go about their business.

1119
01:16:45.640 --> 01:16:49.279
And so I do appreciate that you
make a very earnest attempt to get

1120
01:16:49.279 --> 01:16:53.840
your eyes on all these guys look
you as well. I've been a fan

1121
01:16:53.880 --> 01:16:57.880
of you cutting up some video lately
and getting into that that's that's all.

1122
01:16:59.239 --> 01:17:02.520
Yeah, yeah, looking at all
the stats, looking at all the matrics,

1123
01:17:02.520 --> 01:17:06.000
all that sort of stuff, and
then just watching baseball, and in

1124
01:17:06.039 --> 01:17:08.960
a lot of ways, I kind
of feel like, even if you're just

1125
01:17:09.039 --> 01:17:12.760
like strictly one, I think you
can come to some pretty pretty dang good

1126
01:17:12.800 --> 01:17:16.600
conclusions about players either way. You
know that whole discussion is not to say

1127
01:17:16.720 --> 01:17:19.319
that there's a right or a wrong
way to do it. I do think

1128
01:17:19.319 --> 01:17:24.760
that you should be doing both,
though there's both is the best, both

1129
01:17:24.800 --> 01:17:27.840
as the best. That's the new
tagline, why not both? You know?

1130
01:17:28.680 --> 01:17:31.800
Funny line from a movie to me
whatever. I was going to use

1131
01:17:31.800 --> 01:17:34.720
this as a springboard, though,
to talk about a guy that I've barely

1132
01:17:34.760 --> 01:17:40.800
seen any video of. So he's
one that I on the short list of

1133
01:17:40.840 --> 01:17:45.399
my top two or three folks that
I'm most excited to see this year is

1134
01:17:45.600 --> 01:17:48.880
Robert Klas. He's someone that I've
seen a little bit of Granny DSL footage

1135
01:17:49.039 --> 01:17:54.920
of some hype videos, and it's
so hard to tell much from those because

1136
01:17:54.920 --> 01:17:59.680
anybody can look good and VP we
I had one teammate in particular who put

1137
01:17:59.720 --> 01:18:04.760
on the most spectacular VP. He
was absolutely incredible, majestic home runs.

1138
01:18:04.800 --> 01:18:09.680
Every single swing looked the part,
you know, six to two, physically

1139
01:18:09.800 --> 01:18:13.079
imposing cut up. I think he's
a personal trainer still, so he still

1140
01:18:13.119 --> 01:18:16.119
looks great. But he hit all
these incredible home runs. But if the

1141
01:18:16.159 --> 01:18:19.600
pitch was not an eighty four mile
an hour fastball, which we would see

1142
01:18:19.640 --> 01:18:24.800
like midweek bad pitchers, he could
crush those guys. But if they threw

1143
01:18:24.840 --> 01:18:27.039
a change up, he was going
to swing and miss. If it was

1144
01:18:27.159 --> 01:18:30.760
eighty eight or above, he was
gonna wi. But it looked majestic in

1145
01:18:30.840 --> 01:18:32.720
batting practice. And so there's only
so much that you can tell from those

1146
01:18:32.800 --> 01:18:38.560
kinds of looks. Now, Robert
Klaus has put up some pretty impressive numbers

1147
01:18:38.760 --> 01:18:43.279
on the stat sheet. Had a
very very good DSL line as a seventeen

1148
01:18:43.359 --> 01:18:46.079
year old, which matters at this
age putting up you know, I think

1149
01:18:46.079 --> 01:18:50.800
it's like a one to fifty some
WRC plus with a pretty solid shape or

1150
01:18:50.800 --> 01:18:55.359
production, not too many strikeouts,
some good homers, stole some bags.

1151
01:18:55.439 --> 01:18:58.399
You look at that stat line and
that checks a lot of boxes. But

1152
01:18:58.479 --> 01:19:03.640
the thing to me that is so
exciting about him is Baseball America reported his

1153
01:19:03.800 --> 01:19:09.520
exit velocity, his ninetieth percentile exiblocity
at one oh seven point two. That

1154
01:19:09.760 --> 01:19:15.920
is absolutely insane, Like it's so
good that I actually can't really get my

1155
01:19:15.000 --> 01:19:18.600
head around it. And I feel
like I've taken a little bit of a

1156
01:19:18.600 --> 01:19:21.720
crazy pill, like I did the
red blue, red pill, blue pill

1157
01:19:21.920 --> 01:19:26.039
in the matrix and after I saw
that number, and I was like,

1158
01:19:26.079 --> 01:19:30.159
a seventeen year old did that in
professional baseball, like dsl's professional baseball.

1159
01:19:30.239 --> 01:19:34.039
That is wild. And for contexts, I wrote this up in the Dynasty

1160
01:19:34.239 --> 01:19:39.439
Got Discord the other day for context, that's the same ninetieth percentile exit velocity

1161
01:19:39.479 --> 01:19:44.000
that Juan Soto had last year.
That's the same. That's better than a

1162
01:19:44.039 --> 01:19:47.279
bunch of guys that you think of
as like power hitters, major leaguers,

1163
01:19:47.479 --> 01:19:50.680
grown ass men, and this kid
did it as a seventeen year old.

1164
01:19:50.760 --> 01:19:55.159
Some of this might be some hot
guns in the DSL. Some of this

1165
01:19:55.239 --> 01:19:59.720
might be small sample performance, and
I want to see it against higher level

1166
01:19:59.720 --> 01:20:02.199
pitching. Some of the pitching in
the DSL is notoriously pretty bad. At

1167
01:20:02.199 --> 01:20:06.279
the same time, Junior Cam and
Arrow didn't do this Amidor didn't do this.

1168
01:20:06.720 --> 01:20:11.640
You Andrey Vargas didn't do this.
Nobody has done this that I've seen

1169
01:20:11.880 --> 01:20:15.640
reported. When Baseball America went through
like the best exit velocities at different age

1170
01:20:15.760 --> 01:20:19.399
levels, you had to get up
to twenty one year old, twenty year

1171
01:20:19.399 --> 01:20:23.920
olds and junior cam and arrow to
see somebody that hit the ball harder and

1172
01:20:24.000 --> 01:20:29.600
the ninetieth percent I'll exit velow than
Callaus did. So I've got him here

1173
01:20:29.640 --> 01:20:33.239
in this power bat. Like the
error bars are huge, there might be

1174
01:20:33.279 --> 01:20:38.199
some strikeout problems. I'm not sure
what else we're going to get out of

1175
01:20:38.199 --> 01:20:41.239
this, and I have no idea
even if that those evs are real,

1176
01:20:41.399 --> 01:20:44.560
but even the potential for that,
how this guy is in a top one

1177
01:20:44.640 --> 01:20:47.279
hundred consideration for a lot of people, I don't really know, Like I

1178
01:20:47.319 --> 01:20:51.119
don't know what else you want to
see from a DSL person to get that

1179
01:20:51.199 --> 01:20:57.239
kind of consideration. I'm betting that
it's real or mostly real. And even

1180
01:20:57.279 --> 01:21:01.039
if it's like ninety five ninety percent
real, this is a no doubt top

1181
01:21:01.039 --> 01:21:05.319
one hundred in consideration for a top
twenty five bat next year. If he

1182
01:21:05.359 --> 01:21:10.560
does anything even remotely close to this
state side, I love that shout.

1183
01:21:10.920 --> 01:21:15.000
I think, and I just wrote
this in a piece for the Dynasty Dugout,

1184
01:21:15.039 --> 01:21:19.000
but one of the most profitable demographics
to invest in, you know,

1185
01:21:19.039 --> 01:21:25.520
in terms of prospects, is the
DSL standout that not very many people have

1186
01:21:25.600 --> 01:21:29.640
laid eyes on who have an outlier
trait. I think I wrote this with

1187
01:21:29.720 --> 01:21:33.680
regards to well In Francisca of the
Cleveland Guardians. I think that is overwhelmingly

1188
01:21:33.760 --> 01:21:40.119
true for Robert Klaus. You don't
see a one hundred and seven ninetieth percentile

1189
01:21:40.159 --> 01:21:42.920
EGXIT velocity coming out of the DSL. You just don't see it. I'm

1190
01:21:42.960 --> 01:21:45.079
actually like, I'm racking my brain
for anything close to that, and it's

1191
01:21:45.199 --> 01:21:49.199
I can't conjure anything up. Of
course, of course the risk is massive,

1192
01:21:49.399 --> 01:21:54.039
but when you are the cost to
get in is, you know,

1193
01:21:54.119 --> 01:21:57.399
like a top two hundred prospect.
I think this is a place where you

1194
01:21:57.439 --> 01:22:00.239
can jump in kind of with both
feet and without a parachute still find a

1195
01:22:00.239 --> 01:22:04.439
pretty soft landing. So he is
one that I am immensely intrigued with.

1196
01:22:04.520 --> 01:22:09.600
But again I think the what's driving
the delta between what he did in the

1197
01:22:09.600 --> 01:22:14.600
stat sheet, what his underlying numbers
say, and the actual you know value

1198
01:22:14.760 --> 01:22:17.279
is that nobody's really seen him.
You know, you can check out you

1199
01:22:17.319 --> 01:22:21.199
know, Instagram reels, you can
find some you know, grainy cell phone

1200
01:22:21.239 --> 01:22:27.159
footage. Until we have you know, an infrastructure where DSL games are at

1201
01:22:27.239 --> 01:22:30.000
least recorded, you know, in
some capacity and available for public consumption,

1202
01:22:30.359 --> 01:22:32.760
this is going to continue to be
a trend. And so you know,

1203
01:22:32.880 --> 01:22:39.520
even outside of kind of the DSL
guys who are getting propped up pretty heavily.

1204
01:22:39.600 --> 01:22:43.359
You know, you mentioned you took
you Andrew Vargas in an FYPD recently,

1205
01:22:43.640 --> 01:22:46.159
kind of those players that live in
a lot of one hundred to two

1206
01:22:46.199 --> 01:22:51.640
hundred ranges simply because rankers, writers, prospectors don't know what to do with

1207
01:22:51.680 --> 01:22:56.399
them because they have not seen them. That's a place I would be targeting

1208
01:22:56.479 --> 01:22:59.359
at this point in the calendar.
They're kind of interesting because they don't have

1209
01:22:59.439 --> 01:23:00.960
like a complex lead. So all
these guys are going to go straight from

1210
01:23:00.960 --> 01:23:03.680
the DSL to a ball, which
is fun for us. We get to

1211
01:23:03.720 --> 01:23:06.680
see them quickly. We don't have
that in between the year or whatever.

1212
01:23:06.760 --> 01:23:11.279
But sometimes I wonder if that's a
bit of a detriment for some of these

1213
01:23:11.319 --> 01:23:15.279
players to maybe not have that little
in between level, and it might be

1214
01:23:15.399 --> 01:23:19.079
that might be something to remember.
Actually, if Klas does struggle next year

1215
01:23:19.159 --> 01:23:24.479
as an eighteen year old in full
season ball, assuming they bring him stateside,

1216
01:23:24.520 --> 01:23:28.640
that might be another little buying opportunity
here. You know, we'll see

1217
01:23:28.960 --> 01:23:32.039
it'll like desinated, don't. I
don't think it was to the level of

1218
01:23:32.119 --> 01:23:36.479
Klas, but I think Bettencourt had
some nice exi velocities for his age as

1219
01:23:36.520 --> 01:23:40.640
well too. It just turns out
that Bettencourt just hits the ball really hard

1220
01:23:40.680 --> 01:23:43.840
into the ground all the freaking times. Yeah. Yeah, that's the other

1221
01:23:43.880 --> 01:23:47.199
thing Kalas doesn't. He's thirty seven
percent flyball, thirty six percent groundball,

1222
01:23:47.239 --> 01:23:51.319
twenty six point five line drive,
Like that is my like ideal, Like

1223
01:23:51.399 --> 01:23:57.960
you want to talk about ideal production, it's like thirty eight percent of flyball,

1224
01:23:58.039 --> 01:24:00.479
ground ball, and then twenty four
percent line drives. Like that's the

1225
01:24:00.520 --> 01:24:05.520
best guys, the elite producers look
like that, other than Akunya, who's

1226
01:24:05.600 --> 01:24:10.119
just super weird. But while we're
on the topic, you're an excellent writer.

1227
01:24:10.439 --> 01:24:14.199
I would love to read a piece
from you on like what is your

1228
01:24:14.199 --> 01:24:17.600
platonic ideal for a minor leaguer?
Maybe even by age cohort, because I

1229
01:24:17.640 --> 01:24:23.039
know that you've done some research and
writing in the past on how to project

1230
01:24:23.079 --> 01:24:27.279
players as a mature and so for
selfish reasons, I would love to have

1231
01:24:27.319 --> 01:24:30.439
a longer form piece of content from
you on that topic. I'll give you

1232
01:24:30.520 --> 01:24:35.359
my short answer without any of a
detail behind it. But I like two

1233
01:24:35.600 --> 01:24:40.399
kind of competing views of hitters.
I like hitters that are really boring,

1234
01:24:40.640 --> 01:24:45.680
so ones that have sort of even
production, that do a little bit of

1235
01:24:45.680 --> 01:24:48.079
everything, but nothing is outstanding,
because I think those people get underrated.

1236
01:24:48.159 --> 01:24:53.279
So if they've got a solid strikeout
rate, a slightly above average walk rate,

1237
01:24:53.439 --> 01:24:56.279
okay, homers, but they'll swipe
a bag or two. Like a

1238
01:24:56.319 --> 01:24:59.680
guy that I point to you is
a friend of mine who embodies this a

1239
01:24:59.720 --> 01:25:01.319
bit as Mark Kanna. I think
Mark Kannon is that kind of guy.

1240
01:25:01.359 --> 01:25:04.079
He's a little bit better on the
obp side, but he does the rest

1241
01:25:04.079 --> 01:25:08.640
of the things well. He's not
elite power, he's not elite speed,

1242
01:25:08.680 --> 01:25:12.479
but he gets some homers, gets
some bags, and I think gets underrated

1243
01:25:12.520 --> 01:25:15.720
by a lot of people because it's
even production across the board. And then

1244
01:25:16.000 --> 01:25:21.119
the other direction is I love weirdos. So someone that is just fully outlier

1245
01:25:21.319 --> 01:25:25.880
in one direction, even if it's
a sort of bad direction for part of

1246
01:25:25.920 --> 01:25:30.439
their production, it's still I find
that interesting and I think you can succeed

1247
01:25:30.720 --> 01:25:32.479
that way. And this is definitely
true of pictures. Nate and I have

1248
01:25:32.479 --> 01:25:36.279
talked about that a lot. Being
weird as a pitcher is how you are

1249
01:25:36.319 --> 01:25:41.720
good. And some of some of
the quote unquote weird is like I throw

1250
01:25:41.800 --> 01:25:45.319
one hundred miles an hour right,
like that's a rare skill. But I

1251
01:25:45.359 --> 01:25:51.359
also appreciate the super strange lefty that
throws from way up the first baseline and

1252
01:25:51.439 --> 01:25:57.239
has great extension. And I'm talking
about Bradford Nate because I watched most of

1253
01:25:57.279 --> 01:26:00.000
his start today and I was like, fuck, yeah, this guy's awesome.

1254
01:26:00.119 --> 01:26:02.640
So like, I think he got
as many whiffs as how who was

1255
01:26:02.680 --> 01:26:08.520
he pitching against today? He's pitching
against somebody really good Yamamoto. Yeah,

1256
01:26:08.560 --> 01:26:11.319
that's who he's going against today,
And and he got as many whiffs as

1257
01:26:11.359 --> 01:26:15.359
Yamamoto did. I was like,
damn, Like, let's go Cody.

1258
01:26:15.039 --> 01:26:19.039
So I love those weirdos too,
and that that's true on the hitting side.

1259
01:26:19.119 --> 01:26:23.239
What should we be looking for sort
of what is that platonic ideal.

1260
01:26:23.439 --> 01:26:27.399
Yeah, I like that a lot. When you said you like weird pitchers,

1261
01:26:27.760 --> 01:26:30.560
particularly lefties that throw down the first
baseline and have great extension, I

1262
01:26:30.600 --> 01:26:33.760
was ready to say in unison with
you, Cooper Jerpy, and then out

1263
01:26:33.760 --> 01:26:40.039
came Cody Bradford. Jerpy's another one
that people were kind of down on him

1264
01:26:40.039 --> 01:26:42.760
because the villa was down. The
thing I was down on him was that

1265
01:26:42.920 --> 01:26:45.680
his command was bad. But his
command was not bad in college, and

1266
01:26:45.720 --> 01:26:49.359
I saw him at Oregon State and
I really liked him. I thought,

1267
01:26:49.479 --> 01:26:53.720
this is a very interesting arm that
I think is going to have some success,

1268
01:26:53.880 --> 01:26:57.479
definitely like a major leaguer. But
then the command was bad and the

1269
01:26:57.560 --> 01:27:00.680
villa was down a bit. But
seeing the vilo up a bit this year,

1270
01:27:00.800 --> 01:27:03.079
I mean, if he's sitting at
ninety two and everything else is so

1271
01:27:03.479 --> 01:27:08.239
outlier, nobody's going to hit that
fastball, and if nobody's hitting the fastball,

1272
01:27:08.439 --> 01:27:10.960
all the other things play up.
I mean, I'm a fan of

1273
01:27:11.000 --> 01:27:13.920
that kind of that kind of an
arm for sure. Yeah, Yeah,

1274
01:27:13.960 --> 01:27:16.560
totally another one that jumps to mind, just as like a spring training velo

1275
01:27:16.720 --> 01:27:19.760
jump. Human Lynn, I don't
know if you were a human Linn guy

1276
01:27:20.039 --> 01:27:25.000
previously but him sitting ninety two to
ninety four after being like an eighty nine

1277
01:27:25.159 --> 01:27:29.159
ninety guy last year super interesting,
especially with the performance that he had last

1278
01:27:29.199 --> 01:27:32.279
year. Another one along that line
that I really liked a couple of years

1279
01:27:32.319 --> 01:27:35.399
ago, and then the Vilo jump
happened and it hasn't quite all click.

1280
01:27:35.439 --> 01:27:39.720
But I was watching today is Joey
Kintillo. So same thing. When he

1281
01:27:39.840 --> 01:27:43.600
was in the low miners. He
was throwing topping out it like ninety ninety

1282
01:27:43.640 --> 01:27:45.880
one, but was getting a ton
of strikeouts because he's got that good extension,

1283
01:27:45.960 --> 01:27:49.239
great ride in his fastball, and
he's a lefty and all of those

1284
01:27:49.239 --> 01:27:54.600
things were helping his miners' numbers pop. But everyone was like, this isn't

1285
01:27:54.600 --> 01:27:57.359
a guy because he doesn't throw hard, And you know, I hate that,

1286
01:27:57.720 --> 01:28:01.119
just as like the end of the
conversation drives me absolutely insane. It's

1287
01:28:01.119 --> 01:28:05.520
another that's one of the articles that
I'm close to finishing. But Cantillo hasn't

1288
01:28:05.560 --> 01:28:10.760
been able to put it together because
he did have decent command, and as

1289
01:28:10.880 --> 01:28:14.760
the velocity jumped for him, he's
now like routinely in the mid to upper

1290
01:28:14.880 --> 01:28:17.880
nineties. I think he's like ninety
six or something. Today and his walk

1291
01:28:17.960 --> 01:28:21.279
rates have really gone way up,
and even today, like he had a

1292
01:28:21.319 --> 01:28:25.680
bunch of non competitive pitches. When
he's in the zone, it looks great,

1293
01:28:25.960 --> 01:28:28.800
but his command really has taken a
step back with that, So I

1294
01:28:28.840 --> 01:28:31.079
hope that isn't the case with someone
like Lynn or another one that we've talked

1295
01:28:31.079 --> 01:28:35.560
about a little bit is Will Dion, who has dominated the low miners at

1296
01:28:35.720 --> 01:28:40.600
eighty nine. Like, the guy
can't crack ninety, but the numbers are

1297
01:28:40.600 --> 01:28:44.880
incredible, and it's because of all
of the other things about his fastball,

1298
01:28:45.199 --> 01:28:48.239
the vertical approach, angle, the
spin that he gets, the deception and

1299
01:28:48.319 --> 01:28:53.680
extension that he gets, all our
standard deviation are better than the average,

1300
01:28:53.680 --> 01:28:58.000
and that makes the pitch play up
even though the velocity isn't good. And

1301
01:28:58.319 --> 01:29:01.399
if he gets a tick or two, then you're talking about Clayton Kershaw like

1302
01:29:01.800 --> 01:29:06.520
no kidding, like actually Clayton Kershaw
level deception. So he's He's not Clayton

1303
01:29:06.600 --> 01:29:11.960
Kershaw yet, but he's one that
I really want to see if he can

1304
01:29:12.000 --> 01:29:15.880
get to drive line or tread and
get a tick or two of extra velocity

1305
01:29:15.920 --> 01:29:18.600
because everything else looks so good to
me. Are you in on Joey Cantillo

1306
01:29:18.960 --> 01:29:23.920
as a big league arm this year. I think roster resource has him in

1307
01:29:23.960 --> 01:29:28.800
the Guardian's rotation. I've got some
shares. I'm not confident about it,

1308
01:29:28.840 --> 01:29:32.640
and that's mostly the command related thing. I think the pitches are still good,

1309
01:29:32.720 --> 01:29:36.000
but he sits in that range of
he's going to get some innings.

1310
01:29:36.039 --> 01:29:39.600
I think they're going to be ugly. He's not going to go deep into

1311
01:29:39.600 --> 01:29:44.479
starts. And if it doesn't go
well, do they downshift him into the

1312
01:29:44.520 --> 01:29:47.079
long relief role or shuttle him back
to triple A Like I want to.

1313
01:29:47.199 --> 01:29:50.159
I want him to succeed because I've
been on him for a while, but

1314
01:29:50.319 --> 01:29:55.960
it's been a frustrating ride just because
I'm not sure the command is there.

1315
01:29:56.000 --> 01:29:59.279
And even watching today, like he
gave a great he's a great guy,

1316
01:29:59.520 --> 01:30:04.000
like super smart. His interview after
his outing today was really interesting worth listening

1317
01:30:04.039 --> 01:30:09.439
to. Sure, but he talked
about how he's like trying to command the

1318
01:30:09.479 --> 01:30:12.119
different pitch shapes, and you saw
when he would go to his slider,

1319
01:30:12.239 --> 01:30:15.239
like he would just flip it out
of his hand and it would miss way

1320
01:30:15.560 --> 01:30:17.600
armside and it's like that's not the
place you want to miss with that pitch.

1321
01:30:17.680 --> 01:30:21.560
And he had a couple of wild
pitch kurveballs that he just spiked.

1322
01:30:21.600 --> 01:30:27.760
He's got so much potential, but
at least in this look today, I'm

1323
01:30:27.800 --> 01:30:30.960
not especially encouraged, and so my
prior of like, he's probably going to

1324
01:30:31.000 --> 01:30:34.720
be a high walk, inefficient guy, which is disappointing as an outcome when

1325
01:30:34.760 --> 01:30:38.000
I was like, I thought this
was a command guy, kind of under

1326
01:30:38.039 --> 01:30:41.720
the radar lefty, and instead he's
more of a power pitcher who might end

1327
01:30:41.800 --> 01:30:45.239
up in the back end of a
bullpen, which is still fine. You

1328
01:30:45.279 --> 01:30:47.600
know, he's a good pitcher,
but I had hopes for him being a

1329
01:30:47.960 --> 01:30:51.960
starter, and I'm not sure he's
there yet. Yeah, the forecasting players

1330
01:30:53.000 --> 01:30:57.119
is so hard. I like,
how do you how do you anticipate something

1331
01:30:57.159 --> 01:31:01.159
like that from a guy like Cantillo, who you know, was ostensibly at

1332
01:31:01.199 --> 01:31:06.880
one point a command guy, and
as he developed into more velocity and more

1333
01:31:06.920 --> 01:31:13.279
movement, you know, is the
prognostication for him has totally changed. Nate,

1334
01:31:13.319 --> 01:31:15.079
I was going to kick it over
to you because one of the things

1335
01:31:15.119 --> 01:31:18.560
that we've talked about recently is that
tool that your your buddy put together in

1336
01:31:18.960 --> 01:31:25.119
how does how often do pictures make
it past the third inning, which in

1337
01:31:25.159 --> 01:31:29.359
the minor leagues, like that's a
decent test of is this guy considered a

1338
01:31:29.399 --> 01:31:33.600
starter and how does their production hold
up after that point? And Nate's pulled

1339
01:31:33.600 --> 01:31:36.880
a bunch of guys that who are
top one hundred worthy. For a lot

1340
01:31:36.880 --> 01:31:41.560
of people whose production just tanks after
the third inning, you might want to

1341
01:31:41.600 --> 01:31:47.439
look on those pitchers a bit more
skeptically than someone that can withstand the times

1342
01:31:47.439 --> 01:31:51.079
for the order penalty. It's a
progression, right, Just because he struggled

1343
01:31:51.079 --> 01:31:56.000
once one season with that doesn't mean
that's forever. But you know, there's

1344
01:31:56.039 --> 01:31:59.880
lots of different formulas that can make
it work, right, especially with pitching

1345
01:32:00.079 --> 01:32:03.760
and projection systems for the upcoming year, they're all kind of on Cantillo.

1346
01:32:03.960 --> 01:32:09.600
They're pretty The lowest projection system projects
him for a four to four era as

1347
01:32:09.640 --> 01:32:12.680
a starter next year in limited time. Like they're not saying he's going to

1348
01:32:12.760 --> 01:32:16.159
open the year in the rotation or
anything, but four to four is really

1349
01:32:16.199 --> 01:32:20.680
really good projection for a minor leaguer. For context, I think there are

1350
01:32:20.720 --> 01:32:24.560
like three off the top of my
head that I can think of, and

1351
01:32:25.439 --> 01:32:29.359
minor leaguers that get that kind of
projection and they haven't yet debuted, and

1352
01:32:29.640 --> 01:32:33.119
this is like better than Kate Horton, better than Jackson Job. I mean

1353
01:32:33.199 --> 01:32:38.199
it's like that for context, this
is up there with the best pitchers in

1354
01:32:38.239 --> 01:32:42.840
the minor leagues. I just personally
remain a little bit skeptical about how useful

1355
01:32:42.840 --> 01:32:45.039
it's going to be. If he
continues to run a four and a half

1356
01:32:45.079 --> 01:32:49.439
to five walk rate per nine,
I would say Cantillo last inning three,

1357
01:32:49.479 --> 01:32:55.199
four, six or excuse me,
four or five six. A lot of

1358
01:32:55.239 --> 01:33:00.239
these were better, except the it
looks like his command gets looser, walks

1359
01:33:00.279 --> 01:33:03.880
more strikes out more whip was a
little bit higher through less percentage of strikes.

1360
01:33:04.039 --> 01:33:08.720
That makes sense. I kind of
forgot that Logan Allen existed altogether.

1361
01:33:08.960 --> 01:33:12.239
That is to say, Kintillo is
projected to start in triple A, with

1362
01:33:12.399 --> 01:33:17.039
the Guardian's rotation being rounded out by
Logan Allen and Gavin Williams they have at

1363
01:33:17.039 --> 01:33:20.279
the five there. I don't know
how much you can really rely on the

1364
01:33:20.319 --> 01:33:25.680
health of Shane Bieber and Triest and
Mackenzie for a full season at this point,

1365
01:33:25.760 --> 01:33:29.560
but Kintilla will not likely start in
the rotation for Cleveland. Yeah,

1366
01:33:29.680 --> 01:33:32.000
I do think he's going to see
some starts in Cleveland this year, though,

1367
01:33:32.199 --> 01:33:35.840
Yeah, we'll see. He's one
that I've liked for a long time,

1368
01:33:35.960 --> 01:33:44.680
so I'm hopeful much longer than your
thirty minutes. We kept back way

1369
01:33:44.720 --> 01:33:47.760
longer than his thirty minutes, and
we talked a bunch about pictures. The

1370
01:33:47.800 --> 01:33:53.920
whole point of this I was only
talk about we were talking about and you

1371
01:33:54.000 --> 01:33:57.119
reserved the last twenty minutes for pictures. That's the kind of guy you are.

1372
01:33:57.520 --> 01:34:00.920
No, I would never do something
like that. I wanted to ask

1373
01:34:00.000 --> 01:34:03.680
you. I wanted to ask you
real quick. So your top one hundred

1374
01:34:03.720 --> 01:34:08.079
points list? Was your was your
big off season project? You did some

1375
01:34:08.199 --> 01:34:12.319
fantastic write ups, lengthy in depth, looked at a lot of real players.

1376
01:34:12.800 --> 01:34:16.399
This question is it doesn't It isn't
just strictly about players. It can

1377
01:34:16.479 --> 01:34:20.000
be it can be whatever you want
about your process about I don't know anything,

1378
01:34:20.079 --> 01:34:25.920
But what was the biggest your biggest
takeaway from doing that project? What

1379
01:34:25.960 --> 01:34:28.239
did you learn doing that? What
would you say was the number one thing

1380
01:34:28.279 --> 01:34:31.960
you learned. There's a number of
things. One is that one hundred is

1381
01:34:32.000 --> 01:34:36.640
not a natural cutoff. There are
a number of players between like fifty and

1382
01:34:36.640 --> 01:34:41.520
one hundred and seventy five that all
you know, in some order probably could

1383
01:34:41.520 --> 01:34:46.159
have fit in a top one hundred. I think the drop off from definitely

1384
01:34:46.720 --> 01:34:51.279
you know, a major leaguer to
maybe a major leaguer happens a good major

1385
01:34:51.359 --> 01:34:58.279
leaguer happens earlier in a prospect list
than most dynasty players treat it. I

1386
01:34:58.319 --> 01:35:03.279
think simply because you you'll have like
a dynasty ranking and then a prospect ranking

1387
01:35:03.439 --> 01:35:08.319
broken out, you kind of conflate
top one hundred prospect with you know,

1388
01:35:08.520 --> 01:35:11.359
that's got to be a valuable or
in the top one hundred. There's a

1389
01:35:11.399 --> 01:35:15.119
glob there's a glob of players from
like you know, sixty or seventy five

1390
01:35:15.279 --> 01:35:18.960
out another one hundred that all got
serious consideration for that. So that's maybe

1391
01:35:18.960 --> 01:35:23.600
thing number one is that any top
one hundred could really be a top one

1392
01:35:23.640 --> 01:35:27.439
fifty without any real degradation to skill, and you know, at some point

1393
01:35:27.479 --> 01:35:30.760
it becomes personal preference. The second
thing is I learned a lot about what

1394
01:35:30.840 --> 01:35:33.800
I care about, kind of maybe
counter to Matt's point, and I think

1395
01:35:33.800 --> 01:35:39.439
there's some merit here where if you
do everything pretty well and maybe nothing outstanding,

1396
01:35:39.640 --> 01:35:44.359
the likelihood that you are a solid
big league ballplayer is maybe higher than

1397
01:35:44.359 --> 01:35:46.840
your perceived value simply because you don't
jump out in any regard. I have

1398
01:35:46.880 --> 01:35:51.279
a really hard time with those players
because there's less for me to grab onto.

1399
01:35:51.680 --> 01:35:55.000
You know, I can't say,
look, this guy hits the ball

1400
01:35:55.079 --> 01:35:59.720
really hard and if everything clicks right, maybe that translates to something like twenty

1401
01:35:59.760 --> 01:36:03.239
five thirty home runs, or this
guy is an elite defender with some speed

1402
01:36:03.479 --> 01:36:08.680
and is certainly going to be in
the lineup every day. On that basis

1403
01:36:08.720 --> 01:36:13.520
alone. Those guys that you know
are maybe fives across the board and you're

1404
01:36:13.560 --> 01:36:15.720
hoping that the sum of their parts, that they are greater than the sum

1405
01:36:15.760 --> 01:36:18.439
of their parts, are tricky for
me to nail down, and I kind

1406
01:36:18.439 --> 01:36:23.000
of shy away from them. Do
you have a platonic ideal of that kind

1407
01:36:23.039 --> 01:36:27.119
of guy in your head? Just
thinking about who maybe was just outside the

1408
01:36:27.159 --> 01:36:29.720
top one hundred, But you're like, it's just because he's a bunch of

1409
01:36:29.720 --> 01:36:32.399
fives. Yeah, Maybe the two
guys that were in the top one hundred

1410
01:36:32.560 --> 01:36:36.520
that I think most embody this,
the highest ranked one that comes to mind

1411
01:36:36.600 --> 01:36:42.319
is probably Curtis Mead, where he's
just a good hitter that hits good,

1412
01:36:42.479 --> 01:36:45.279
and he's not necessarily flashy. But
I think, you know, if it's

1413
01:36:45.279 --> 01:36:48.359
a fifty five on the hit tool
and maybe a fifty five on the power

1414
01:36:48.479 --> 01:36:53.119
and he's gonna have multiple position eligibility, I don't really care so much that

1415
01:36:53.119 --> 01:36:55.720
the raiser are going to jerk him
around. That's just a player that I

1416
01:36:55.840 --> 01:36:58.640
want, And a lot of that
comes down to watching the film and seeing

1417
01:36:58.720 --> 01:37:00.880
a player that is better than the
some of his parts and then the other,

1418
01:37:01.239 --> 01:37:05.039
which I think is like truly fives
across the board. But does one

1419
01:37:05.119 --> 01:37:10.600
thing particularly well? Is Thomas A
jayc That's actually who I was thinking of

1420
01:37:10.680 --> 01:37:15.159
too. That's fantastic. I put
him about as high as I could defend.

1421
01:37:15.399 --> 01:37:18.000
And what he does really well is
he hits the ball. He maximizes

1422
01:37:18.000 --> 01:37:21.800
his bad and ball output with good
angles. He pulls his flyballs in the

1423
01:37:21.800 --> 01:37:27.800
air. I am becoming more and
more accustomed to the idea that that is

1424
01:37:27.840 --> 01:37:30.600
a skill. You can call that
the esak Parates effect. But you know,

1425
01:37:30.680 --> 01:37:34.159
he's another one where I struggle with
what to do with him because I

1426
01:37:34.159 --> 01:37:39.760
think he is a regular. I
don't know if he's like a first division

1427
01:37:39.760 --> 01:37:42.359
regular. He might be a second
division regular, But I think he's going

1428
01:37:42.439 --> 01:37:45.399
to play a lot, and I
think that pulling your fly balls is a

1429
01:37:45.439 --> 01:37:47.520
skill. The thesis statement there is
I learned a lot about what I care

1430
01:37:47.560 --> 01:37:51.199
about with certain prospects. Beck it
sounds to me with this last case here,

1431
01:37:51.199 --> 01:37:56.359
that you kind of like young hitting
prospects that swing the battle lot because

1432
01:37:56.359 --> 01:38:01.159
I feel like Sagasi's development was part
of being pretty aggressive. Yeah, for

1433
01:38:01.199 --> 01:38:04.479
sure. You know, I also
wonder a little bit, you know,

1434
01:38:04.680 --> 01:38:09.560
with him, there was some hitter
friendly environments going on as well. He

1435
01:38:09.600 --> 01:38:13.039
played in the Texas League in both
organizations he was in, which is funny,

1436
01:38:13.079 --> 01:38:15.600
and so you know there may be
some of that too. It's a

1437
01:38:15.600 --> 01:38:18.720
long way of saying like, these
are our players that I like because I've

1438
01:38:18.720 --> 01:38:23.920
watched them and I can see how
maybe this production comes together and is better

1439
01:38:24.319 --> 01:38:27.680
than all of the tools in their
belt. But the ground beneath me feels

1440
01:38:27.720 --> 01:38:31.159
a little unsteady. At the same
time, I tend to prioritize players that

1441
01:38:31.760 --> 01:38:38.520
I think there's a cohort of Dynasty
players who will say I'm not interested in

1442
01:38:38.640 --> 01:38:42.520
rostering a prospect who might be in
above average regular. I only want to

1443
01:38:42.640 --> 01:38:45.600
roster players that have you know,
one hundredth percentile outcome. That is an

1444
01:38:45.720 --> 01:38:50.079
MVP, you know, and so
guys that have that kind of potential I

1445
01:38:50.520 --> 01:38:56.079
placed pretty high, even if there
is a rather stark flaw. The two

1446
01:38:56.119 --> 01:38:59.039
that come to mind, and I
know Matt is a fan of one or

1447
01:38:59.079 --> 01:39:01.960
both of them, Old Rodriguez and
Spencer Jones. I look at those guys

1448
01:39:02.199 --> 01:39:08.600
and what they're able to do from
a power perspective, and it's staggering to

1449
01:39:08.640 --> 01:39:11.439
me. Both of them have you
know, a little bit of in zone

1450
01:39:11.479 --> 01:39:15.079
with Emmanuel Riguez comes to mind.
Nate specifically with your comment, because I

1451
01:39:15.119 --> 01:39:17.039
like him a lot, and he
does not he refuses to swing the bat,

1452
01:39:18.039 --> 01:39:21.960
and so you know, I find
myself gravitating towards these guys that have

1453
01:39:23.319 --> 01:39:26.319
a true carrying tool. And if
there's more than that, then excellent.

1454
01:39:26.319 --> 01:39:29.039
I'm going to stuff you weigh up
a list, but I struggle with the

1455
01:39:29.079 --> 01:39:31.920
players that are maybe fives across the
board. It's interesting though, Like you

1456
01:39:31.960 --> 01:39:35.560
know, you play in deeper leagues, and I totally understand the like you

1457
01:39:35.600 --> 01:39:39.720
know, I call it like superstar
hunting. There's some formats in some leagues,

1458
01:39:39.760 --> 01:39:42.000
but that's all I'm going to do. Yep. But then there's others

1459
01:39:42.039 --> 01:39:44.720
where it's like if you're playing like
a thirty team where maybe even the twenty,

1460
01:39:44.760 --> 01:39:46.319
it's like I got to get something
out of my draft picks, like

1461
01:39:46.439 --> 01:39:51.159
there is more of a realistic baseball
organization type thing there is. I can't

1462
01:39:51.199 --> 01:39:55.720
just strike out on all these big
swings. I got to get something out

1463
01:39:55.760 --> 01:39:59.640
of this. You're totally right.
A lot of this is format dependent,

1464
01:40:00.079 --> 01:40:03.600
of course, like I would value
someone like trying to pull another name that

1465
01:40:03.640 --> 01:40:08.000
I haven't already said, maybe like
a Luis Laura where and this is a

1466
01:40:08.000 --> 01:40:10.960
guy who would play well in a
K penalty league, but who I think

1467
01:40:11.319 --> 01:40:16.239
is an interesting dart throw for bat
to ball as a leading tool without you

1468
01:40:16.279 --> 01:40:19.640
know, maybe something that I think
could make him an MVP. Those guys

1469
01:40:19.680 --> 01:40:25.279
become more intriguing to me in my
thirty team league where I have to constantly

1470
01:40:25.640 --> 01:40:29.840
refuel this team with minor leaguers or
I'm going to fall out of contention pretty

1471
01:40:29.880 --> 01:40:32.560
quickly. One guy that you did
put in the back area, I think

1472
01:40:32.560 --> 01:40:36.600
he was in maybe the late eighties
or nineties for you, was Graham Paully.

1473
01:40:36.800 --> 01:40:42.880
And he's another one that I think
his shape of production looks like maybe

1474
01:40:42.920 --> 01:40:47.239
the contact skills or a tick above
average that might be the only plus,

1475
01:40:47.319 --> 01:40:54.000
like fifty five maybe sixty there.
Everything else seems like fifties or around his

1476
01:40:54.319 --> 01:40:58.279
skill set. But he's a guy
that I end up gravitating towards two as

1477
01:40:58.439 --> 01:41:01.079
one that I think the combination of
all of those things together, that he's

1478
01:41:01.119 --> 01:41:04.840
got a little bit of power,
he's got decent to maybe slightly better than

1479
01:41:04.920 --> 01:41:10.279
decent contact. He'll swipe some bags. I really like grand Polly. I've

1480
01:41:10.319 --> 01:41:14.119
found myself staring at him in a
bunch of fypds lately and come away with

1481
01:41:14.199 --> 01:41:16.479
him in a couple of them because
I'm like, I actually think this guy's

1482
01:41:16.640 --> 01:41:20.600
a regular, and whether he's a
first division regular, whether it's going to

1483
01:41:20.680 --> 01:41:25.119
take some more seasoning, he needs
to do something more, But I am

1484
01:41:25.199 --> 01:41:29.239
kind of sold on him as like
an example of that five So maybe one

1485
01:41:29.439 --> 01:41:31.600
tool is a little bit better than
that, but that I feel pretty confident

1486
01:41:31.640 --> 01:41:35.880
in those, and I like him
as a Matt You do you stare at

1487
01:41:36.079 --> 01:41:42.119
Graham Paulie in the same fashion you
stare at Colt Emerson's photoshopped by photos.

1488
01:41:43.479 --> 01:41:46.520
Well, one of those is for
my private time, and the other is

1489
01:41:46.560 --> 01:41:53.520
for my fantasy baseball time, so
it's different. It's different. I and

1490
01:41:53.600 --> 01:41:56.279
I did this when I was on
Welsh's show. I don't want to do

1491
01:41:56.279 --> 01:41:59.840
too many callbacks to that, but
I had a moment on his show where

1492
01:41:59.840 --> 01:42:04.119
I realized, you know, if
I'm going to have James Wood at thirteen

1493
01:42:04.239 --> 01:42:08.840
or whatever I had him at,
why is Spencer Jones at thirty? That

1494
01:42:08.880 --> 01:42:13.479
feels like a disconnect that I have
not reconciled. I feel similarly about Thomas

1495
01:42:13.520 --> 01:42:16.399
to Jay Z and Grand Paully.
Grand Polly was a player that I gravitated

1496
01:42:16.399 --> 01:42:20.199
towards because I got to see him
at the AFL and he didn't necessarily wow

1497
01:42:20.359 --> 01:42:26.439
with performance out there. He's a
player I think that the production has,

1498
01:42:26.720 --> 01:42:30.840
you know, born out that he
is maybe an above average hitter with maybe

1499
01:42:30.880 --> 01:42:34.159
above average power, and everything else
is maybe average or fringe average. But

1500
01:42:34.319 --> 01:42:41.319
he looks like there's more. He
is rather physically impressive, and I don't

1501
01:42:41.399 --> 01:42:45.560
think he's done developing yet. I
don't think that's a controversial stance to have

1502
01:42:45.680 --> 01:42:49.039
for somebody that has not yet played
in MLB. But he's one where I

1503
01:42:49.119 --> 01:42:53.439
look at him and I think there's
more in the tank. So even if

1504
01:42:53.479 --> 01:42:57.279
it's fifty five, fifty five and
then fives across the board, I think

1505
01:42:57.279 --> 01:43:00.199
there's potential for more. Yet,
I really like Grandpaully. He's super fun

1506
01:43:00.239 --> 01:43:01.439
to watch. I like it.
I just got a couple of shares,

1507
01:43:01.520 --> 01:43:05.199
so I'm hopeful for more. I
wonder what his playing time will look like

1508
01:43:05.239 --> 01:43:10.439
this year. They have an interesting
roster construction in San Diego. They do,

1509
01:43:10.640 --> 01:43:15.239
and have they played him in any
odd spots because they're playing maryl in

1510
01:43:15.279 --> 01:43:18.319
the center field and left field.
Has Polly gotten any time out there.

1511
01:43:18.439 --> 01:43:24.399
I'm actually a little curious if they'll
Because we spent some time talking about Jake

1512
01:43:24.399 --> 01:43:29.119
Croninworth. I almost wonder if he's
not like a rip chord option at first

1513
01:43:29.119 --> 01:43:32.279
base. One thing I did find
with Grand Polly he pinched ran on Monday

1514
01:43:32.520 --> 01:43:36.720
and then took the field at first
base for Jake Croninworth. So interesting.

1515
01:43:38.000 --> 01:43:42.119
Maybe maybe something to watch there as
the season wears on. We talked about

1516
01:43:42.119 --> 01:43:45.199
this at the outset too, and
it is definitely over reaction season in every

1517
01:43:45.279 --> 01:43:49.680
direction. But it's so hard not
to. I have so many shares of

1518
01:43:49.760 --> 01:43:55.399
Joe Musgrove and the guy has gotten
like zero outs in two outings already,

1519
01:43:55.760 --> 01:43:58.880
and it's like gave me a headache. When I saw a second outing,

1520
01:43:58.920 --> 01:44:01.159
I was like immediately stressed and like, listen, do I need to be

1521
01:44:01.199 --> 01:44:05.079
stressed about Joe Muskrove on a global
level? No? Do I need to

1522
01:44:05.079 --> 01:44:09.520
be stressed about it for my fantasy
teams? Like also no, Like there's

1523
01:44:09.560 --> 01:44:12.479
a lot of time, a lot
of things that can happen. You should

1524
01:44:12.479 --> 01:44:15.840
be you should change your opinions about
players very slowly at this time of year.

1525
01:44:15.920 --> 01:44:19.199
But it's hard not to when you're
like, oh my god, Spencer

1526
01:44:19.239 --> 01:44:23.279
Jones hit a ford in se many
foot home run like he's the best player

1527
01:44:23.279 --> 01:44:26.319
ever. Joe Muscrove hasn't gotten it
out in a week, Like, oh

1528
01:44:26.359 --> 01:44:30.039
my god, he's terrible. You
know, It's it's hard not to really

1529
01:44:30.479 --> 01:44:32.439
like trying to cipher through and like, what what do you think is a

1530
01:44:32.479 --> 01:44:36.159
real substantial thing to pay attention to
him? What isn't one thing I wanted

1531
01:44:36.199 --> 01:44:41.199
to ask you, Matt was because
I know you're not a huge fan of

1532
01:44:41.279 --> 01:44:44.960
him, I don't think, but
to me, Casey Miz throwing as hard

1533
01:44:44.960 --> 01:44:48.640
as he has been is super interesting
to me. Well, and the pitch

1534
01:44:48.640 --> 01:44:54.880
shaped change too, I mean,
I'm kinda interested, you know. I

1535
01:44:54.920 --> 01:44:58.159
think Detroit's a great place to pitch. I actually like a lot of their

1536
01:44:58.199 --> 01:45:01.840
pitchers, and I wonder if they're
doing something right there in terms of the

1537
01:45:01.920 --> 01:45:04.640
development. I don't know, I
don't know what's going on there. Beck,

1538
01:45:04.680 --> 01:45:08.119
what do you say? You got
any thoughts on myz? I mean,

1539
01:45:08.359 --> 01:45:13.079
I was really excited for him coming
out of college, and it's pretty

1540
01:45:13.119 --> 01:45:18.680
astounding how quickly the kind of glut
of pitching talent that the Tigers went out

1541
01:45:18.720 --> 01:45:24.199
and drafted in the you know,
the late teens, if I'm allowed to

1542
01:45:24.199 --> 01:45:26.439
call it that, it's only twenty
twenty four, kind of fell apart,

1543
01:45:26.640 --> 01:45:29.920
you know, him and Matt Manning, and they invested a lot of draft

1544
01:45:29.920 --> 01:45:33.000
capital there. I want Casey Mize
to be great, but I'm also trying

1545
01:45:33.039 --> 01:45:36.399
to do, you know, what
Matt is doing. Kind of take it

1546
01:45:36.439 --> 01:45:41.119
as it comes. If he keeps
looking fantastic, I want to be slow

1547
01:45:41.239 --> 01:45:44.000
to change my opinion, but I
loved him out of the draft, and

1548
01:45:44.000 --> 01:45:45.359
this feels like, you know,
I don't want to overreact, but it

1549
01:45:45.359 --> 01:45:49.479
feels like maybe realizing a dream for
Casey Mice. One thing that I think

1550
01:45:49.600 --> 01:45:54.479
is good about spring training. If
we're paying attention, there's a lot of

1551
01:45:54.520 --> 01:45:57.079
examples and a lot of highlights,
and a lot of things that you will

1552
01:45:57.079 --> 01:46:01.359
see where it's like stuff changes stuff
and progress, and it can progress differently

1553
01:46:01.560 --> 01:46:05.800
than a guy's ability to execute pitches, Like it's much more coachable. And

1554
01:46:05.840 --> 01:46:10.880
I think you see that vividly during
spring training. You know, maybe some

1555
01:46:10.920 --> 01:46:15.800
of these velocity gains or sharper pitches
don't last over the long haul or what

1556
01:46:15.960 --> 01:46:18.600
have you. Yeah, And with
pitching in particular, that's where like you

1557
01:46:18.720 --> 01:46:24.119
might try and change your mind a
little bit faster, Like if a pitch

1558
01:46:24.119 --> 01:46:28.560
shape is different, if someone is
up a couple ticks, those things tend

1559
01:46:28.600 --> 01:46:32.079
to matter and tend to stick,
like it's usually the product of something that

1560
01:46:32.119 --> 01:46:36.560
they have changed with effort and intention, And when they do that, it

1561
01:46:36.640 --> 01:46:43.199
often does lead to production changes in
season. As we've talked about before,

1562
01:46:43.279 --> 01:46:46.640
Nate, like pitchers can change so
freaking fast. Then if you aren't paying

1563
01:46:46.640 --> 01:46:50.760
attention really closely, you can miss
those guys. So I would say,

1564
01:46:50.760 --> 01:46:55.960
like, nice current events, man, pitching these current events Like that's that's

1565
01:46:55.960 --> 01:46:59.880
why I tried to do that Prospect
Pitching review list and on a weekly basis,

1566
01:47:00.079 --> 01:47:02.520
what's new, what's new with this
guy? Especially some of those levels

1567
01:47:02.520 --> 01:47:05.520
and some of those ages, like
there are things that can change pretty rapidly,

1568
01:47:05.720 --> 01:47:09.800
or there are just guys who are
just humming along doing the same exact

1569
01:47:09.840 --> 01:47:13.720
thing for several years. Well,
and that's what I do on the Statcast

1570
01:47:13.760 --> 01:47:16.720
leaderboards during spring training is I mostly
just look at the pictures and see what's

1571
01:47:16.760 --> 01:47:20.399
the delta from their twenty twenty three. So I see is spin changing,

1572
01:47:20.560 --> 01:47:25.199
is the shape of the pitch change
velocity, and that you know, the

1573
01:47:25.279 --> 01:47:29.800
results don't don't really matter. It
can hurt your feelings and make you stressed.

1574
01:47:30.000 --> 01:47:31.840
As I said about mister Joe Musgrove
figured it out, can hurt their

1575
01:47:31.920 --> 01:47:36.399
value on the trade table. It
can, but generally it has to be

1576
01:47:36.520 --> 01:47:42.560
such outlier performance for the results to
actually signal any kind of change. You

1577
01:47:42.600 --> 01:47:45.039
know that people have looked at this
time and time again. Strikeouts for hitters,

1578
01:47:45.039 --> 01:47:50.520
strikeouts for pictures like that might signal
a small change in your underlying estimate

1579
01:47:50.600 --> 01:47:55.840
as to their true talent level,
but you mostly should ignore the results.

1580
01:47:56.000 --> 01:48:00.760
But looking at some of the component
pieces, has the quote unquote stuff changed

1581
01:48:01.079 --> 01:48:05.600
That can signal something like because it
can change fast, and it can be

1582
01:48:05.760 --> 01:48:11.239
a sticky improvement or degradation too,
and that's something to keep an eye out

1583
01:48:11.279 --> 01:48:14.920
for. You know. It's it's
funny, Matt. Every episode you just

1584
01:48:15.239 --> 01:48:17.840
talk, you say out loud,
pitching is so much better than hitting,

1585
01:48:17.880 --> 01:48:21.199
and you just can't come around to
it. Man, when you're just gonna

1586
01:48:21.239 --> 01:48:29.319
accept this better? No, I
okay, I have a lot of thoughts

1587
01:48:29.359 --> 01:48:31.359
here. I think pitching is more
fun to scout. I think it is

1588
01:48:31.600 --> 01:48:38.760
like they're hitting to some degree,
feels more mechanical because the inputs and outputs

1589
01:48:38.760 --> 01:48:42.319
of evaluation. I think if there's
there's almost more of a rubric for it.

1590
01:48:42.359 --> 01:48:45.039
But pitching, Nate, you're an
artist. I think there's an art

1591
01:48:45.079 --> 01:48:48.199
to it that we're still figuring out
how to quantify. And actually a point

1592
01:48:48.239 --> 01:48:51.319
I wanted to make them. You
know, it's it's best shape of our

1593
01:48:51.359 --> 01:48:56.079
life season for people getting takes off
on Twitter as well as, like Matt,

1594
01:48:56.159 --> 01:48:58.239
to your point, kind of the
two things to look out for are

1595
01:48:58.279 --> 01:49:03.319
jumps in velocity and material changes to
arsenals and stuff. And I've seen some

1596
01:49:03.399 --> 01:49:09.760
people talk about jumps in velocity on
like a one inning outing or a two

1597
01:49:09.840 --> 01:49:13.199
inning outing. I don't really care
as much about that if I wanted to

1598
01:49:13.239 --> 01:49:15.399
shove say Casey myes and the pen
and say, look, he throws ninety

1599
01:49:15.439 --> 01:49:19.640
eight. Now that's great, but
he's still got to go five innings as

1600
01:49:19.680 --> 01:49:24.119
a starter. So you know,
you can more or less disregards his first

1601
01:49:24.159 --> 01:49:28.079
time out, his velocities up in
the first inning. You know, he's

1602
01:49:28.119 --> 01:49:31.239
thrown fifteen pitches. And then you
know, on the I think you said

1603
01:49:31.239 --> 01:49:36.760
it correctly, on arsenal changes or
developing a new pitch, is production is

1604
01:49:36.800 --> 01:49:41.520
going to change. We don't know
if that's good or bad. Necessarily,

1605
01:49:41.560 --> 01:49:44.600
it's something to take note of.
But like you know, Bryce Miller adding

1606
01:49:44.600 --> 01:49:47.800
a splitter probably good. He could
use another weapon. I don't know if

1607
01:49:47.800 --> 01:49:53.000
that's necessarily going to be a good
pitch for him over the course of an

1608
01:49:53.119 --> 01:49:57.039
entire regular season, right, And
I don't know if he has a good

1609
01:49:57.079 --> 01:50:00.000
grasp on how to deploy it in
real game situations. And so, yes,

1610
01:50:00.039 --> 01:50:04.000
it's notable and something you know that
I want to give my attention to.

1611
01:50:04.399 --> 01:50:08.399
At the same time, it's really
hard to say, hey, this

1612
01:50:08.600 --> 01:50:13.479
portends good things for any given picture. For SURELL said well said yeah,

1613
01:50:13.720 --> 01:50:15.199
and you know, just and there's
a whole other level too. Like Matt

1614
01:50:15.239 --> 01:50:17.159
and I have talked about, it's
like, how do you use it?

1615
01:50:17.319 --> 01:50:19.640
How well do you use it?
Do you know when to use it?

1616
01:50:20.800 --> 01:50:24.920
Switch the order that you use it, and it might work well. You

1617
01:50:24.960 --> 01:50:29.760
know, a ninety nine mile per
hour fastball and a nice chainsaw, you

1618
01:50:29.800 --> 01:50:31.720
know, in a vacuum. We're
both very nice tools, but if you

1619
01:50:31.760 --> 01:50:35.840
got them in the wrong hands,
they're useless or somewhat useless. Be should

1620
01:50:35.840 --> 01:50:39.720
we get you out of here?
I have to leave you with one thing.

1621
01:50:39.760 --> 01:50:44.439
So I recently moved from Rochester,
Minnesota back to Minneapolis after like a

1622
01:50:44.479 --> 01:50:47.840
two and a half year hiatus,
and we bought a house. I realize

1623
01:50:48.279 --> 01:50:51.199
over the course of the episode that
there is a supper club like less than

1624
01:50:51.199 --> 01:50:57.159
two miles from me. I'm going
to keep the name of the supper club

1625
01:50:57.199 --> 01:51:00.520
to myself, simply because I don't
feel like doxing myself. I will let

1626
01:51:00.600 --> 01:51:02.079
the two of you know. Actually, Matt, maybe this is more important

1627
01:51:02.079 --> 01:51:04.119
for you. You can look it
up. You can take, you know,

1628
01:51:04.239 --> 01:51:08.439
a swing through some of the pictures
and you'll understand the vibe. It's

1629
01:51:08.520 --> 01:51:11.720
right on a lake. We have
not yet been patrons of the supper club,

1630
01:51:11.880 --> 01:51:15.520
but I am excited for a summer
night out on the patio. Oh,

1631
01:51:15.760 --> 01:51:19.720
I'm so jealous. It's been like
a more than a decade now since

1632
01:51:19.760 --> 01:51:26.039
I've been back to Minnesota to visit
my friends out there. I need to

1633
01:51:26.039 --> 01:51:29.079
make a summer trip out and see. I've never been to target Field.

1634
01:51:29.119 --> 01:51:31.920
I've only been to the Metrodome.
You. I love target Field a little

1635
01:51:31.920 --> 01:51:35.239
bit biased because you know, the
Twins are my al team, but it's

1636
01:51:35.279 --> 01:51:38.920
a it's a great ballpark. I
recommend you getting out, and I would

1637
01:51:38.920 --> 01:51:40.960
love to catch a game if you're
ever in the area. Well, when

1638
01:51:41.039 --> 01:51:45.880
we make our millions with our podcasts, I going to suggest this earlier that

1639
01:51:45.920 --> 01:51:48.600
we, you know, set up
shopping the Dominican for part of the year,

1640
01:51:48.680 --> 01:51:51.119
you know, a couple of months. We'll rent it out the rest

1641
01:51:51.119 --> 01:51:55.560
of the time. But then we'll
just hang out at major League games.

1642
01:51:55.720 --> 01:52:00.760
Here you go, when money's not
an object. That's man. Thank you

1643
01:52:00.800 --> 01:52:03.199
so much for your time. Anything
else you wanna you wanna tell folks about

1644
01:52:03.239 --> 01:52:06.479
Beck Yeah, we've covered a lot
here. My Top one hundred is out.

1645
01:52:06.520 --> 01:52:10.319
It's one hundred and ten pages long. Matt helped me edit it.

1646
01:52:10.520 --> 01:52:13.840
So you know, to some degree, I'm still indebted to him, Nate,

1647
01:52:13.880 --> 01:52:15.600
I'm indebted to you for inviting me
on the pod. This has been

1648
01:52:15.640 --> 01:52:18.840
a great time. For those of
you who are still listening and are still

1649
01:52:18.840 --> 01:52:21.960
interested in future work that I may
have going on. You can find me

1650
01:52:23.000 --> 01:52:27.039
on Twitter. Almost everything that I
write ends up on that platform anyway.

1651
01:52:27.319 --> 01:52:30.319
Otherwise, check out the Dynasty dugout. It's the Dynasty dugout dot com.

1652
01:52:30.399 --> 01:52:34.479
Chris just went full time. I'm
sure anybody listening to this is already intimately

1653
01:52:34.560 --> 01:52:39.800
acquainted with Chris or otherwise acquainted with
Chris. He just went full time.

1654
01:52:39.840 --> 01:52:43.319
He's putting out a ton of work
on the site, So recommend checking it

1655
01:52:43.359 --> 01:52:46.800
out, if not for anything that
I happen to type up for Chris's work

1656
01:52:46.920 --> 01:52:50.000
right on. Thank you awesome having
you back. This was great, This

1657
01:52:50.159 --> 01:52:54.439
was fantastic. I would do this
again. Let's we'll have you back for

1658
01:52:54.479 --> 01:52:57.760
sure. I can't. I can't
wait until the season starts and I got

1659
01:52:57.800 --> 01:53:01.319
some like undrafted picture that like just
totally blew me away and I get to

1660
01:53:01.560 --> 01:53:04.520
get to talk about him. Yeah, yeah, that'll be great. Let's

1661
01:53:04.560 --> 01:53:08.840
uh, let's have Chicago Farmer take
this out. Be well, and we'll

1662
01:53:08.880 --> 01:53:12.039
talk to you next time later.
Take care of guys within an hour.

1663
01:53:12.520 --> 01:53:18.000
Riding to his head, he hop
him down the first with the lump bone

1664
01:53:18.039 --> 01:53:24.720
in his face, and on the
very next pitch he up in stove second

1665
01:53:24.800 --> 01:53:36.760
face with greatst speed. He wasn't
born. He had the dirty Yes uniform.