WEBVTT 1 00:00:00.160 --> 00:00:04.360 So it's official, as I predicted last year when we heard about the one 2 00:00:04.440 --> 00:00:11.839 year delay in funding the remaining two hundred million dollars that the State of California 3 00:00:11.919 --> 00:00:18.679 had pledged to the City of Fresno for downtown infrastructure development. And this is 4 00:00:18.760 --> 00:00:23.320 to help develop things basically a lot of like infrastructure stuff like sewage stuff, 5 00:00:23.480 --> 00:00:29.559 water drain stuff that is needed if we're going to do all the revitalization things 6 00:00:29.600 --> 00:00:34.159 that we want to do in downtown Fresno, if we want to have you 7 00:00:34.200 --> 00:00:38.159 know, something like ten thousand more people living in downtown and more business being 8 00:00:38.240 --> 00:00:40.880 driven to downtown as a result of more people living there, and blah blah 9 00:00:40.880 --> 00:00:45.600 blah blah blah blah blah, if we want to finish up all the construction 10 00:00:45.960 --> 00:00:50.799 problems that are happening in the Chinatown area with you know, trying to get 11 00:00:50.840 --> 00:00:57.000 ready for that high speed rail station. It's now official that Gavin Newsom has 12 00:00:57.119 --> 00:01:00.600 told Jerry Dyer, hey, you know, so our original plan was to 13 00:01:00.640 --> 00:01:03.799 give you this remaining two hundred million dollars. Well, we're now delaying it 14 00:01:03.840 --> 00:01:11.159 by two years, not just one year, and this is a huge problem 15 00:01:11.640 --> 00:01:19.799 for the city. So Dyer has some more there's some more quotes from Dire 16 00:01:19.879 --> 00:01:25.200 about this topic. This delay and funding, he says, coupled with prolonged 17 00:01:25.239 --> 00:01:30.359 street closures from high speed rail construction, is devastating our downtown in Chinatown revitalization 18 00:01:30.519 --> 00:01:34.359 efforts. Dyer said, I was shocked to hear there would be a possibility 19 00:01:34.359 --> 00:01:38.439 of a second year of it being deferred. Uh, this is a dire. 20 00:01:38.519 --> 00:01:42.319 In comments to reporters from Frisno Bee, the reason is we had ramped 21 00:01:42.439 --> 00:01:47.400 up our hiring for our Capital projects department, and we have a lot of 22 00:01:47.439 --> 00:01:51.319 things in motion in terms of planning and pending contracts. Now those things are 23 00:01:51.319 --> 00:01:53.760 possibly going to have to be put on hold, which means we can't continue 24 00:01:53.760 --> 00:02:04.239 with construction. The state's budget swings up it Now, why is this happening? 25 00:02:04.319 --> 00:02:12.639 Why is this happening? As I've said, California is dependent on tax 26 00:02:13.439 --> 00:02:22.759 revenue from a relatively small band of taxpayers, of high net worth taxpayers. 27 00:02:23.560 --> 00:02:30.759 Now I think we're getting some more details of this. George Skelton, is 28 00:02:30.800 --> 00:02:36.360 a columnist for the La Times, is reporting the big change is not actually 29 00:02:37.560 --> 00:02:45.039 in income tax revenue. It's coming from capital gains tax revenue. Right, 30 00:02:46.520 --> 00:02:50.400 So Repetita uvonn to people. Hear the phrase capital gains taxes all the time, 31 00:02:50.439 --> 00:02:53.319 maybe some of you don't understand what it is. Capital gains taxes is 32 00:02:53.360 --> 00:03:01.240 the tax that you pay when you cash out on some investment. Okay, 33 00:03:02.319 --> 00:03:08.439 you buy stock at this price. Let's say you buy a bunch of stock 34 00:03:08.479 --> 00:03:13.719 and it's worth two hundred dollars, and then you sell when the stock is 35 00:03:13.759 --> 00:03:17.800 worth two thousand dollars. You're going to pay a certain amount of tax on 36 00:03:17.840 --> 00:03:23.840 that eighteen hundred dollars increase in value, and that's called your capital gains tax. 37 00:03:23.520 --> 00:03:30.759 Now, generally capital gains taxes are capital gains the money you make off 38 00:03:30.800 --> 00:03:42.479 an investment. Capital gains taxes are lower than most normal income taxes. So 39 00:03:42.520 --> 00:03:46.800 I think it's something like fifteen percent. So whatever, fifteen percent of your 40 00:03:46.840 --> 00:03:50.360 eighteen hundred dollars that you made. Again, you bought stock for two hundred 41 00:03:50.360 --> 00:03:53.120 dollars, you sold it at two thousand dollars, you made eighteen hundred dollars. 42 00:03:53.280 --> 00:03:57.719 You got to pay fifteen percent of that eighteen hundred in capital gains tax. 43 00:04:00.120 --> 00:04:10.319 LA Times columnist George Skelton reported that in twenty twenty one, the States 44 00:04:10.439 --> 00:04:17.079 rich made up twenty five percent of all personal income taxes collected in twenty twenty 45 00:04:17.120 --> 00:04:26.240 one, So capital gains taxes from wealthy taxpayers made up twenty five percent of 46 00:04:26.279 --> 00:04:35.079 all the revenue that the state collected. A year later, the state was 47 00:04:35.120 --> 00:04:41.000 getting half that amount. So in twenty twenty one, when you know, 48 00:04:41.079 --> 00:04:44.160 hey, we all were having a budget surplus, we're doing great. We 49 00:04:44.199 --> 00:04:49.720 also had all this COVID money. Basically people had, people were getting lots 50 00:04:49.720 --> 00:04:55.199 of investments, the people were selling their stock, realizing their capital gains, 51 00:04:55.600 --> 00:05:00.240 and the state was getting a bunch of revenue from capital gains tax Twenty five 52 00:05:00.319 --> 00:05:05.720 percent of all the revenue the state was getting was from capital gains taxes. 53 00:05:06.600 --> 00:05:14.040 A year later, capital gains fell to just thirteen percent of what the state 54 00:05:14.360 --> 00:05:29.720 was collecting, an eighteen billion dollar drop in capital gains revenues. So that's 55 00:05:29.800 --> 00:05:36.720 the that the fact that the state is not collecting as much revenue. This 56 00:05:36.879 --> 00:05:43.120 is at the heart of why I don't think this downtown Fresno project's ever gonna 57 00:05:43.120 --> 00:05:48.720 happen. Okay, the state made this grand, grandiose pledge to die in 58 00:05:48.720 --> 00:05:54.279 the city of Fresno. Coming off of again, like twenty twenty one, 59 00:05:54.439 --> 00:05:59.279 twenty twenty two, we were seeing in twenty twenty one, we were seeing 60 00:05:59.279 --> 00:06:05.519 this this massive budget surplus that California had, and it was in part driven 61 00:06:05.600 --> 00:06:12.959 by you know, we were coming off of still a largely successful Trump economy. 62 00:06:13.279 --> 00:06:18.600 Inflation hadn't really kicked in. People still felt fairly bullish on the economy, 63 00:06:20.360 --> 00:06:25.519 and we had all this in spite of COVID being this massive disruption. 64 00:06:25.680 --> 00:06:33.439 We had all this federal COVID money flood again. So basically the state was 65 00:06:33.439 --> 00:06:36.959 in this very bullish mode and Newsome makes this, oh, yeah, we'll 66 00:06:38.000 --> 00:06:44.199 give you two hundred and fifty million dollars. Sure. Well, the next 67 00:06:44.279 --> 00:06:49.040 two years we see and we saw this with twenty twenty three, we saw 68 00:06:49.079 --> 00:06:53.399 this with twenty twenty four. We're seeing it in twenty twenty four. We're 69 00:06:53.439 --> 00:06:59.240 looking at massive budget deficits as we come grinding to the reality of what the 70 00:06:59.240 --> 00:07:06.000 Biden econ looks like and what California taxpayer revenue into the state's coffers is looking 71 00:07:06.120 --> 00:07:14.279 like in this era, which is not good. We're getting far less in 72 00:07:14.319 --> 00:07:23.319 capital gains tax revenue, and basically the amount this is this is not complicated. 73 00:07:23.399 --> 00:07:28.120 The amount of money we are getting from taxpayers paying their taxes is not 74 00:07:28.360 --> 00:07:34.360 enough to cover the expense of what the state has to pay for. Slash 75 00:07:34.720 --> 00:07:43.160 wants to pay for and wants get sacrificed at the altar of needs. I'm 76 00:07:43.199 --> 00:07:48.279 sure Gavin Newsom would like downtown Fresno to be revitalized, but it's probably not 77 00:07:48.480 --> 00:07:53.639 the thing that keeps him up at night. It's probably not the most important 78 00:07:53.639 --> 00:08:01.879 thing in the world to him, and so that's gonna get sacrificed. And 79 00:08:01.920 --> 00:08:07.800 now we're two years into this getting sacrificed, and I guess I'm just wondering 80 00:08:09.439 --> 00:08:16.240 how many years will this get kicked down the can before? You know, 81 00:08:16.519 --> 00:08:20.160 how many years is this gonna get kicked down the can before eventually either Newsome 82 00:08:20.759 --> 00:08:24.040 or the next governor tells Fresno sorry, that this is just not happening. 83 00:08:26.759 --> 00:08:28.199 I mean, does it need a three year delay, a four year delay, 84 00:08:28.199 --> 00:08:39.000 a five year delay before we come to that conclusion. Do we need 85 00:08:39.039 --> 00:08:41.639 a new governor to come in to be the bad guy or the bad girl 86 00:08:43.320 --> 00:08:46.840 to say, hey, listen, I know Gavin Newsom promises to you, 87 00:08:46.960 --> 00:08:50.639 but I'm the new sheriff in charge now, and look, we this is 88 00:08:50.679 --> 00:08:58.679 just not gonna happen. I just don't really know what's gonna happen, what's 89 00:08:58.759 --> 00:09:03.759 gonna change in our economic circumstances that that's gonna you know, rocket jet fuel 90 00:09:03.240 --> 00:09:09.679 tax revenues into the state. Especially I think post COVID there were a lot 91 00:09:09.720 --> 00:09:15.440 of people who left the state. And again this is this is a reality 92 00:09:15.480 --> 00:09:20.720 of California politics. We are highly dependent on the tax revenues of a very 93 00:09:20.759 --> 00:09:28.639 small band of people, their income tax revenue, their capital gains tax revenue. 94 00:09:28.720 --> 00:09:35.039 It's really a very small crust of Californians whose tax dollars are propping up 95 00:09:35.080 --> 00:09:39.360 the whole system, the whole structure of the state budget. And if they 96 00:09:39.480 --> 00:09:45.000 leave, or if they're keeping their powder dry with their investments, which seems 97 00:09:45.000 --> 00:09:48.120 to be what's happened. That seems to be one of the big things. 98 00:09:48.159 --> 00:09:54.200 That's an eighteen billion dollar drop right there between twenty twenty one to twenty twenty 99 00:09:54.240 --> 00:10:03.039 two. Was all these uber rich people just holding onto their investments. They 100 00:10:03.039 --> 00:10:05.360 all cashed out. I guess in twenty twenty one now they're just holding onto 101 00:10:05.360 --> 00:10:11.559 their investments. They're they're keeping their powder dry. So we're not getting their 102 00:10:11.559 --> 00:10:24.799 capital gains tax revenue. So I guess I just don't know how California's economy 103 00:10:24.840 --> 00:10:28.480 is going to so fundamentally change, like what is going to spur the California 104 00:10:28.480 --> 00:10:35.919 economy. Honestly, the possible upturn of the economy that might come around as 105 00:10:35.919 --> 00:10:43.080 a result of a Trump presidency might be the single best thing for this prospect 106 00:10:43.240 --> 00:10:48.200 of downtown Presno ever getting this hundred million dollars, because again, under the 107 00:10:48.320 --> 00:10:54.759 current circumstances, I just don't see this happening. And every year that goes 108 00:10:54.840 --> 00:11:01.200 by, that one hundred million dollars become that that two hundred million dollars. 109 00:11:01.279 --> 00:11:05.679 Rather so again, it was Newsom gave a two hundred fifty million dollar pledge. 110 00:11:05.720 --> 00:11:09.480 He gave us the first fifty million. We were supposed to get two 111 00:11:09.480 --> 00:11:13.279 annual installed. It was supposed to be a three year installment thing. Fifty 112 00:11:13.320 --> 00:11:16.240 million one year, one hundred million the next year, one hundred million the 113 00:11:16.279 --> 00:11:20.720 next year. And I think we got the first fifty million in twenty two. 114 00:11:20.000 --> 00:11:24.519 We were supposed to get one hundred and twenty three. Didn't Then we 115 00:11:24.519 --> 00:11:26.879 were supposed to get one hundred We didn't get that one hundred and twenty twenty 116 00:11:26.879 --> 00:11:33.559 three. Oh, we're just gonna delay it by a year. Now, 117 00:11:33.559 --> 00:11:37.639 We're not gonna get that first hundred million in twenty twenty four, so we're 118 00:11:37.639 --> 00:11:41.960 talking twenty five and twenty six. We're gonna get that next hundred million. 119 00:11:41.200 --> 00:11:46.960 By the way, the next governor's election is in twenty twenty six. By 120 00:11:48.039 --> 00:11:52.159 twenty twenty seven, if we kick this can down the road one more year, 121 00:11:52.200 --> 00:11:56.639 we might have another governor making the decision over whether or not we're even 122 00:11:56.679 --> 00:12:03.000 gonna get the remainder of this money. And I think the city has to 123 00:12:03.039 --> 00:12:09.399 ask itself, I think, and you know, presumably these are smart people. 124 00:12:09.879 --> 00:12:16.200 I'm sure they're having these discussions right now. What are our plans if 125 00:12:18.120 --> 00:12:20.399 we only get one hundred million of this? What are our plans if we 126 00:12:20.480 --> 00:12:24.000 don't get a red scent of it? What's the plan if we delay it 127 00:12:24.000 --> 00:12:31.480 by another year? Or are we just totally stuck? Is the because let 128 00:12:31.559 --> 00:12:37.600 me tell you the You drive in downtown Fresno, you drive in the Chinatown 129 00:12:37.639 --> 00:12:46.519 district around there, you drive sort of I'm trying to get my bearings directionally 130 00:12:46.840 --> 00:12:54.120 south and west of Grizzly Stadium. It's a ghost town out there. It's 131 00:12:54.320 --> 00:12:58.200 just we are so hung up with all the construction that needs to happen for 132 00:12:58.200 --> 00:13:09.799 the high speed rail, well it it looks frankly dystopian. And I just 133 00:13:09.159 --> 00:13:15.000 think Gavin Newsom, it almost it almost would have been better if Newsom hadn't 134 00:13:15.159 --> 00:13:18.960 roped us into this whole thing, because I think we got I think Dyer 135 00:13:18.080 --> 00:13:24.120 got sold to Bill of Goods. I think Newsom made this grandiose problem in 136 00:13:24.159 --> 00:13:31.000 a bumper time, and now that things are lean, he's not. Newsom's 137 00:13:31.039 --> 00:13:37.360 not going to be able to deliver. And for Newsom this is you know, 138 00:13:39.159 --> 00:13:43.559 he he fundamentally does not care. And he there you know he does 139 00:13:43.600 --> 00:13:48.200 not care. And a new governor again, if this can gets kicked into 140 00:13:48.240 --> 00:13:56.639 twenty twenty seven, a new governor is not going to care. Like a 141 00:13:56.679 --> 00:14:05.720 new governor is not gonna feel obligate to keep the word of Gavin Newsom when 142 00:14:05.759 --> 00:14:11.120 we return a devastating takedown of Governor Newsom's budget projections for the year. That's 143 00:14:11.159 --> 00:14:18.320 next on The John Gerardy Show. As city leaders in Fresno are reeling from 144 00:14:18.759 --> 00:14:24.559 yet another year long delay of the promise two hundred million dollars in state funding 145 00:14:24.600 --> 00:14:33.039 for downtown Fresno revitalization, called it I called it. To be specific, 146 00:14:33.159 --> 00:14:37.120 I called it. I predicted that this would not come through. I predicted 147 00:14:37.120 --> 00:14:41.240 that after that first one year delay, that highly unlikely was going to come 148 00:14:41.279 --> 00:14:48.240 in the next year. Because the basic reality California's budgetary situation is unsustainable. 149 00:14:48.600 --> 00:14:52.879 We are dependent on too few people supporting a budget that is too large, 150 00:14:54.320 --> 00:14:58.519 too few people with not enough money supporting a budget that's too large. We 151 00:14:58.559 --> 00:15:03.399 made all these grandiose plans when we had that sort of post COVID bump where 152 00:15:03.399 --> 00:15:07.519 we had a budget surplus. I think that's where this idea that the state 153 00:15:07.639 --> 00:15:13.799 would give fresnow two hundred fifty million dollars came from. Now that we're facing 154 00:15:13.840 --> 00:15:18.600 deficit spending, guess what, Downtown Presnent revitalization is just not a very high 155 00:15:18.600 --> 00:15:22.440 priority on Gavin Newsom's list. I don't know that we're ever going to get 156 00:15:22.440 --> 00:15:30.960 that money. So Roger Niello, California State Senator, has a great piece 157 00:15:31.679 --> 00:15:39.440 looking at sort of Newsom's state of denial regarding the budget. On Friday, 158 00:15:39.480 --> 00:15:43.600 Governor Gavin Newsom presented his revised budget. So, for those who don't know, 159 00:15:45.000 --> 00:15:48.000 the way it works in California is the governor introduces kind of a preliminary 160 00:15:48.080 --> 00:15:56.440 budget early in the legislative year, and then come May, so a month 161 00:15:56.679 --> 00:16:03.799 after tax day, after he's gotten tax revenues in, the governor gives a 162 00:16:03.879 --> 00:16:07.919 sort of adjusted budget. So that's where we are now. Last Friday, 163 00:16:08.000 --> 00:16:14.759 Governor Newsom gave this adjusted budget, and that from this adjustment comes the news. 164 00:16:15.120 --> 00:16:18.240 Sorry, Fresno, you know that one hundred million dollars we said we'd 165 00:16:18.240 --> 00:16:19.679 give you this year and then one hundred million next year. Yeah, we're 166 00:16:19.720 --> 00:16:29.919 pushing that back one more year. So Roger Niello's California state senator writes this, 167 00:16:30.320 --> 00:16:36.559 I am concerned that the governor's budget banks on rosy revenue projections and continues 168 00:16:36.600 --> 00:16:40.840 a legacy of reckless spending that began during the democrats decade long control of the 169 00:16:40.840 --> 00:16:45.440 budget process. One party rule has fed unsustainable spending, and California is on 170 00:16:45.480 --> 00:16:48.840 a path of deficit spending for years to come. In fact, the reckless 171 00:16:48.879 --> 00:16:53.600 spending is how a staggering ninety eight billion dollar surplus in twenty twenty two, 172 00:16:56.159 --> 00:17:02.000 when Gavin Newsom made this grandiose play edge to Jerry Dyer, When we had 173 00:17:02.039 --> 00:17:07.359 a ninety eight billion dollar surplus in twenty twenty two turned into an equally staggering 174 00:17:07.519 --> 00:17:11.160 seventy three billion dollar deficit, according to a non part as an estimate, 175 00:17:11.240 --> 00:17:15.839 in just two years. In May of twenty twenty two, Newsom proudly proclaimed 176 00:17:15.839 --> 00:17:19.400 the ninety eight billion dollar surplus for the upcoming budget year, a surplus fueled 177 00:17:19.400 --> 00:17:25.680 in large part by federal pandemic spending, ding ding ding, and a Silicon 178 00:17:25.759 --> 00:17:32.160 Valley stock market boom. Both were short term factors. We were not living 179 00:17:32.279 --> 00:17:36.400 in some new budget normal. Thank you. This is what I keep saying 180 00:17:36.400 --> 00:17:41.960 about the Fresno angle of this. Twenty twenty two Newsom makes this grand pledge 181 00:17:42.000 --> 00:17:48.160 to dire but it was based off these black swan events that just were not 182 00:17:48.240 --> 00:17:52.440 going to happen again. One getting all this federal COVID money, and two 183 00:17:52.680 --> 00:17:57.720 a little Silicon Valley stock boom where you know, as the be pointed out, 184 00:18:00.039 --> 00:18:07.480 capital gains tax revenue to the state dropped like a stone even just between 185 00:18:07.480 --> 00:18:11.880 twenty twenty one to twenty twenty two. So you're getting less than capital gains 186 00:18:11.920 --> 00:18:17.200 tax revenue because the stock market's calming down, you don't have all this federal 187 00:18:17.240 --> 00:18:21.920 COVID money, and that normal, I think, is what's resulting in the 188 00:18:22.000 --> 00:18:26.079 state having deficit deficit, deficit deficit. And if the state's gonna have deficit 189 00:18:26.079 --> 00:18:30.240 deficit deficit deficit, they're not gonna have room for one hundred million dollars this 190 00:18:30.319 --> 00:18:40.920 year and one hundred million dollars next year for Fresno. Niello continues, We 191 00:18:40.960 --> 00:18:45.920 are not living in some new budget normal, but the governor and Democratic legislators 192 00:18:47.000 --> 00:18:49.720 chose to spend as though the good times would never end. In January of 193 00:18:49.720 --> 00:18:53.559 twenty twenty three, Newsom introduced his proposed budget for the upcoming year. A 194 00:18:53.680 --> 00:18:59.559 nearly twenty two billion dollar deficit loomed. Steps to curbs spending should have been 195 00:18:59.559 --> 00:19:03.680 implemented immediately, but they were not in May of twenty twenty three. So 196 00:19:03.759 --> 00:19:07.079 again, this is the schedule by which the governor does the budget, introduces 197 00:19:07.079 --> 00:19:11.039 it in January, does an adjustment in May. In May of twenty twenty 198 00:19:11.039 --> 00:19:15.880 three, the deficit had ballooned to an estimated thirty two billions twenty two billion 199 00:19:15.920 --> 00:19:19.200 to thirty two billion, and the forecast from the Governor's Finance Department indicated the 200 00:19:19.200 --> 00:19:26.839 deficit of at least fifteen billion dollars for each of the following three years instead 201 00:19:26.839 --> 00:19:32.759 of addressing the deficit by bringing spending in line with revenues. Newsoman Democratic legislators 202 00:19:32.880 --> 00:19:37.720 leaned into borrowing, fund shifts and other gimmicks to paper over the deficit for 203 00:19:37.759 --> 00:19:42.799 the year. By early last December. After analyzing tax data following the November 204 00:19:42.839 --> 00:19:48.599 tax filing deadline, the Legislative Analyst's Office projected a sixty eight billion dollar deficit 205 00:19:49.359 --> 00:19:53.279 by this past February. Based on tax receipts through January. The LAO TO 206 00:19:53.440 --> 00:19:59.400 uped its deficit forecast to seventy three billion, and that's about where we stand 207 00:19:59.480 --> 00:20:03.839 now, despite the governor's claim that the deficit is smaller. In the past, 208 00:20:03.920 --> 00:20:08.240 California's budgetary process was more inclusive. Without a supermajority of Democrats in controlled 209 00:20:08.279 --> 00:20:15.799 decisions required broader consensus, necessitating a conference committee where divers voices could contribute to 210 00:20:15.839 --> 00:20:21.119 the fiscal dialogue. This system fostered negotiations and compromises, ensuring consideration of a 211 00:20:21.160 --> 00:20:26.839 wide array of perspectives in the budget making process. It was transparent. Now 212 00:20:26.200 --> 00:20:30.960 it's just the governor and Democrat leadership making all the decisions, mostly behind closed 213 00:20:32.000 --> 00:20:36.240 doors. The governor claims he is fiscally prudent, but that's not really the 214 00:20:36.279 --> 00:20:38.960 case. He continues to spend recklessly on costly programs that have made the fiscal 215 00:20:40.000 --> 00:20:45.160 hole much worse. For example, of the gimmicks that he's using, the 216 00:20:45.160 --> 00:20:49.640 Governor's claiming one point six billion dollars in budget savings by shifting the payroll due 217 00:20:49.720 --> 00:20:53.960 on the last day of this fiscal year to the first day of the next. 218 00:20:55.519 --> 00:21:00.000 That's purely accounting sleight of hand. Postponing the payment by twenty four hours 219 00:21:00.640 --> 00:21:03.640 merely creates an illusion of savings. No, not one dollar is saved, 220 00:21:04.079 --> 00:21:10.039 and next year's deficit is now worse. The takeaway from all this one party 221 00:21:10.119 --> 00:21:14.119 rule is drowning this state and debt. Borrowing from future revenues, shifting funds 222 00:21:14.119 --> 00:21:18.559 from other accounts, and deploying accounting gimmickry are short sighted tactics and ignore the 223 00:21:18.640 --> 00:21:22.400 root cause of the deficit, unsustainable spending. The need for transparency in the 224 00:21:22.440 --> 00:21:27.839 budget making process has never been greater by the way governor dropped his budget update 225 00:21:27.880 --> 00:21:33.160 off dropped his budget update on a Friday, days before he jetted off to 226 00:21:33.200 --> 00:21:37.200 Italy. That says a lot right there. It shouldn't be this way. 227 00:21:37.240 --> 00:21:41.160 It's time for California to embrace genuine physical solutions, heat expert advice, and 228 00:21:41.240 --> 00:21:47.519 move beyond the mirage of temporary fixes. Really good piece, really good piece 229 00:21:47.720 --> 00:21:52.000 by again Roger Niello, California state Senator. I think he's from kind of 230 00:21:52.039 --> 00:21:59.519 northern California, near Placer County. And with that rosy picture of things, 231 00:22:00.119 --> 00:22:04.400 I will again affirm my contention, We're never going to get this money. 232 00:22:04.480 --> 00:22:11.519 We're never going to get that two hundred million unless some crazy I don't know, 233 00:22:11.599 --> 00:22:22.440 stock market bubble happens or some other event happens with a big federal bailout. 234 00:22:22.720 --> 00:22:33.559 I just don't see a likely scenario during this governorship of US getting that 235 00:22:33.599 --> 00:22:37.240 two hundred million dollars for Fresno. If this is how the budget, if 236 00:22:37.240 --> 00:22:45.480 this is really the norm, and twenty twenty two was the exception, then 237 00:22:45.720 --> 00:22:48.920 this twenty twenty two plan of fifty million dollars one year, that one hundred 238 00:22:48.920 --> 00:22:51.480 million dollars next year, that one hundred million dollars next year, that twenty 239 00:22:51.519 --> 00:22:56.640 twenty two plan is not going to work because twenty twenty two was the aberration. 240 00:22:56.279 --> 00:23:02.039 Twenty twenty three and twenty twenty four big def big deficit. That is 241 00:23:02.079 --> 00:23:06.440 the norm, and they're not going to find the money for us, not 242 00:23:06.559 --> 00:23:11.440 during this governorship, and once we get a pharaoh who knows not Joseph, 243 00:23:11.920 --> 00:23:19.200 I think this deal is over when we return. Why Republicans make total morons 244 00:23:19.240 --> 00:23:26.000 of themselves by thinking the government should not do good things? Next on the 245 00:23:26.079 --> 00:23:38.400 John Gerardi Show, Republicans have developed about fifty years of libertarian brainworms that they 246 00:23:38.440 --> 00:23:45.720 can't get out. Like the brainworm eating away at RFK Junior's brain, Republicans 247 00:23:45.839 --> 00:23:56.640 cannot shake this libertarian instinct fearing, well, that's big government, this idiotic 248 00:23:56.279 --> 00:24:03.079 non argument that they selectively apply fly when they want to. Basically when they 249 00:24:03.200 --> 00:24:11.359 selectively apply when it's just something they don't like, and it makes Republicans sometimes 250 00:24:11.440 --> 00:24:18.240 look like complete idiots. I've seen two examples of this, and it gives 251 00:24:18.240 --> 00:24:26.119 me the opportunity to talk about this sort of more fundamental philosophical thing. First, 252 00:24:26.720 --> 00:24:30.319 I saw a Republican, well not a Republican, some kind of kind 253 00:24:30.359 --> 00:24:37.160 of crazy lady on Twitter, some one of these MAGA accounts who occasionally has 254 00:24:37.160 --> 00:24:41.920 something smart to say, but often is in maga Looney tune Land, who 255 00:24:41.599 --> 00:24:51.440 was looking at a member of the House of Representatives was introducing safety legislation regarding 256 00:24:51.559 --> 00:25:04.519 table saws. Table saws are notoriously dangerous tools. They're extremely dangerous. They're 257 00:25:04.559 --> 00:25:12.960 responsible for lots and lots of accidents. People have lost fingers from table saws. 258 00:25:14.279 --> 00:25:19.640 It's my only real introduction to table saws was working in my grandpa's workshop 259 00:25:19.960 --> 00:25:26.039 shed and we were doing woodworking stuff when I was growing up, and he 260 00:25:26.119 --> 00:25:30.079 was like, all right, don't touch the table saw. You let me 261 00:25:30.640 --> 00:25:38.079 touch the table saw. Stay away from the table saw. Now, there 262 00:25:38.119 --> 00:25:47.440 are some new developments in certain kinds of table saws that they have the safety 263 00:25:47.480 --> 00:25:56.200 mechanisms in them where and I've seen like videos of this where these new safety 264 00:25:56.200 --> 00:25:59.400 standards and table saws. And by the way, i am not a contractor. 265 00:25:59.440 --> 00:26:03.119 I am not an expert on table saws. Okay, so bear with 266 00:26:03.160 --> 00:26:07.160 me, but I've seen videos of this. I'm sure it's much more expensive 267 00:26:07.160 --> 00:26:11.960 than just producing a normal table saw. But basically there's these new kind of 268 00:26:12.000 --> 00:26:19.680 safety mechanisms for table saws where I've seen demonstrations of it, people holding a 269 00:26:19.720 --> 00:26:26.599 hot dog close to the blade of a table saw, and that at the 270 00:26:26.680 --> 00:26:36.160 even the slightest touch of something that doesn't feel like wood. Basically, I 271 00:26:36.160 --> 00:26:41.960 guess of softer material, softer tissue. It results in I don't know, 272 00:26:41.000 --> 00:26:48.119 some kind of signal, electric signal, something being triggered instantaneously for the table 273 00:26:48.160 --> 00:26:52.200 sauce to slam on the brakes and stop. And you can see that the 274 00:26:52.200 --> 00:26:59.720 hot dog is barely grazed by the blade. And so the idea being that 275 00:27:00.039 --> 00:27:04.319 this is a safety mechanism to allow table saws to be much safer if someone's 276 00:27:04.359 --> 00:27:11.799 finger, If someone's finger comes into contact with the blade for a you know, 277 00:27:11.279 --> 00:27:15.799 nano second, even for a fraction of a fraction of a fraction of 278 00:27:15.839 --> 00:27:21.920 a second, it stops the blade hole. This seems like a good idea, 279 00:27:22.000 --> 00:27:26.319 and this conservative person say, this is ridiculous. Why are we mandating 280 00:27:26.359 --> 00:27:36.119 stuff like this? This should be a question of choice. And this is 281 00:27:36.160 --> 00:27:41.119 the thing I hate about the way conservatives think about things. I again, 282 00:27:41.519 --> 00:27:45.880 maybe I'm wandering into a field that I know too little of. I'm willing 283 00:27:45.920 --> 00:27:48.480 to admit that. You know, you get a microphone in front of your 284 00:27:48.480 --> 00:27:52.279 face, and all of a sudden, you think you're you know God's gift 285 00:27:52.319 --> 00:27:56.079 to mankind, and you know all things about all topics, and if any 286 00:27:56.079 --> 00:28:00.000 of you are contractors at Fresno Johnny go to Twitter dot com slash Fresno john 287 00:28:00.119 --> 00:28:06.799 at President Johnny, tell me I'm an idiot. The idea that safety regulations 288 00:28:07.319 --> 00:28:15.880 are bad makes conservatives look like idiots. Seat Belts are another example of this. 289 00:28:17.119 --> 00:28:26.440 Seat belts manifestly, obviously and clearly save thousands of lives. It is 290 00:28:26.599 --> 00:28:41.160 so obviously a massive, massively beneficial regulation. To insist on safety, to 291 00:28:41.240 --> 00:28:44.400 insist on seat belts, it is better for everybody. It's better on the 292 00:28:44.400 --> 00:28:48.599 healthcare system, better on ears, better on better on the individual. It 293 00:28:48.680 --> 00:28:56.319 is good. A further instance of this, And I feel like I'm gonna 294 00:28:56.880 --> 00:29:00.960 go from things that you're least on board hang on, Hay in there with 295 00:29:00.000 --> 00:29:03.799 me, radio audience. I think I'm gonna go gradually go from stuff you're 296 00:29:03.880 --> 00:29:07.000 less on board with to more on board with, to more on board with. 297 00:29:07.759 --> 00:29:11.759 So maybe I wasn't getting all of you with the table saw a thing. 298 00:29:11.680 --> 00:29:15.079 I think maybe I've got a few more of you with seat belts because 299 00:29:15.119 --> 00:29:19.319 you all wear seat belts, or ninety nine percent of you. Now I 300 00:29:19.400 --> 00:29:26.839 come to a bill in the state of Missouri, a bipartisan bill aimed at 301 00:29:26.880 --> 00:29:33.720 banning all child marriages in Missouri is facing opposition from Republicans, which may hinder 302 00:29:33.759 --> 00:29:40.960 its passage into law. Why is the government intervening in people's personal lives? 303 00:29:41.000 --> 00:29:51.559 To this extent, question Representative Dean Van Shoyak, why is the government intervening 304 00:29:51.839 --> 00:30:00.240 in people's personal lives? All? Right? First, is this i idea 305 00:30:00.279 --> 00:30:07.079 of intervening in your personal life. The government can intervene in your personal life 306 00:30:07.400 --> 00:30:12.359 in a bunch of ways, and it should. If you're beating up your 307 00:30:12.400 --> 00:30:18.160 wife or you're beating up your kid in the privacy of your home, the 308 00:30:18.240 --> 00:30:30.119 government should get involved. If you're privately dealing crack from your house, the 309 00:30:30.160 --> 00:30:34.039 government should get involved. This idea that, oh, I'm doing this in 310 00:30:34.039 --> 00:30:37.519 the privacy, What business is it of the government to interfere in the privacy 311 00:30:37.559 --> 00:30:41.640 of my home? Certain things, yeah, certain things we want to respect 312 00:30:41.640 --> 00:30:45.079 the privacy of the home. There's a wide area of that. But the 313 00:30:45.200 --> 00:30:48.440 very fact that something's being done in private does not mean the government shouldn't be 314 00:30:48.480 --> 00:30:55.799 involved. If it's really bad, if it's something that's really deleterious to public 315 00:30:55.960 --> 00:31:04.759 order, if it's something that's really deleterious to the social fabric of our society. 316 00:31:06.839 --> 00:31:11.440 This is the fundamental difference of opinion between what i'd say this tug of 317 00:31:11.480 --> 00:31:17.720 war in conservatism, between Enlightenment ideas on the one hand and the Bible on 318 00:31:17.799 --> 00:31:25.359 the other, or more classical philosophical approaches to the role of government. The 319 00:31:25.519 --> 00:31:32.839 Enlightenment idea is that we cannot fundamentally know what is good. We do not 320 00:31:33.160 --> 00:31:37.519 fundamentally know what is right and what is wrong. We do not know any 321 00:31:37.680 --> 00:31:45.079 objective moral truth that is out there. Therefore, the role of the government 322 00:31:45.160 --> 00:31:49.880 is not to impose some objective moral truth, but simply to give people the 323 00:31:51.000 --> 00:31:55.559 biggest platform for choosing the good for themselves, as long as you're not stepping 324 00:31:55.559 --> 00:31:59.640 on other people's toes, and it's the stepping on other people's toes that's the 325 00:31:59.680 --> 00:32:01.880 stuff. If we regulate, so murder. We can regulate because you're stepping 326 00:32:01.920 --> 00:32:13.839 on other people's toes. But if people make a free choice that's not infringing 327 00:32:13.880 --> 00:32:22.359 on anyone else's free choices, then go for it. The classical approach to 328 00:32:22.480 --> 00:32:30.960 government, though there is Detelian or i'd say Biblical approach, is that no, 329 00:32:30.079 --> 00:32:35.920 we can know what is right and what is wrong. There is an 330 00:32:35.960 --> 00:32:39.200 objective moral order out there, and government can help direct us to it, 331 00:32:42.440 --> 00:32:49.000 to guide us to what is right by condemning what is wrong, so long 332 00:32:49.039 --> 00:32:52.720 as our condemnation of what is wrong doesn't lead to more worse outcomes on the 333 00:32:52.759 --> 00:32:58.880 side. And really, at the end, a lot of people might say 334 00:32:59.519 --> 00:33:01.359 that there's strict libertarians in that sense, but they don't really mean it. 335 00:33:02.000 --> 00:33:07.200 In our society, we don't even believe it. Why is prostitution illegal in 336 00:33:07.319 --> 00:33:13.240 most of the United States of America Because it's bad. It's bad, and 337 00:33:14.000 --> 00:33:19.359 frankly, it's hard to really trust that people engaged in prostitution are really making 338 00:33:19.480 --> 00:33:24.880 free choices. Why Because it's a desperate thing. It's something that's often the 339 00:33:24.880 --> 00:33:35.920 fruit of massive crippling, bad social positioning, whether massive need for material support, 340 00:33:36.319 --> 00:33:44.240 a drug habit, or just being a victim of sex trafficking. And 341 00:33:44.279 --> 00:33:46.599 this is just what I hate. I wish Republicans would just have a sense 342 00:33:46.720 --> 00:33:52.359 of this is a good thing to do, versus this is not a good 343 00:33:52.359 --> 00:34:00.519 thing to do. This constant idea, Well, it's manifest here's this manifestly 344 00:34:00.839 --> 00:34:09.239 dangerous piece of technology that's chopping off fingers left and right. And now we're 345 00:34:09.239 --> 00:34:13.840 gonna hold the line that we shouldn't have you know consumer safety regulations? Why? 346 00:34:13.920 --> 00:34:16.039 Well, because of capitalist society, the best outcome will always happen. 347 00:34:16.280 --> 00:34:23.360 No, the best outcome is not always gonna happen unless the company manufacturing the 348 00:34:23.400 --> 00:34:34.000 table saws is sued or unless they are sued into making something safe. Basically, 349 00:34:34.039 --> 00:34:39.000 some kind of governmental related, law related intervention is gonna have to force 350 00:34:39.079 --> 00:34:45.360 these companies to make products that are safer. It's what ultimately we had to 351 00:34:45.360 --> 00:34:52.920 do with the automotive industry. And furthermore, when you get to the idea 352 00:34:52.920 --> 00:34:57.400 of hey, here's a propose, here's a proposal that we shouldn't allow children 353 00:34:57.480 --> 00:35:00.280 to get married. It leads to all kinds of abusive situations. Of the 354 00:35:00.320 --> 00:35:02.679 time, when children get married in this state, it's leading to abusive situations. 355 00:35:04.159 --> 00:35:07.880 We should ban it. You have to be eighteen to get married. 356 00:35:07.639 --> 00:35:13.559 Now. I think there are possibly reasonable people one side or the other. 357 00:35:13.679 --> 00:35:16.400 But I think the worst argument is, well, are we interfering in people's 358 00:35:16.519 --> 00:35:22.679 private lives too much? Like this idea that the government shouldn't touch something that's 359 00:35:22.760 --> 00:35:28.800 private. Marriage is a public institution. Of course the states should regulate it. 360 00:35:28.960 --> 00:35:32.000 Of course the state should oversee it. It's the public institution. It's 361 00:35:32.039 --> 00:35:44.599 the building block of society. And if child marriage is being repeatedly abused in 362 00:35:44.719 --> 00:35:52.760 order to facilitate abusive situations, yes, the states should step in because we 363 00:35:52.880 --> 00:35:55.199 know what is right and what is wrong, or we have confidence in what 364 00:35:55.280 --> 00:35:59.679 is right and what is wrong. Maybe some people disagree on that vision, 365 00:36:00.119 --> 00:36:08.119 but I think there's an objective truth out there that we can know. Take 366 00:36:08.280 --> 00:36:14.800 the libertarian brainworm out of your head. When we return. President Biden's pretty 367 00:36:15.159 --> 00:36:19.280 upset about all these polls that make it look like Donald Trump's going to win. 368 00:36:19.360 --> 00:36:24.480 That's next done the John Gerardy Show. So there's all these new polls 369 00:36:24.559 --> 00:36:29.719 out. I think it's this New York Times Siena pole which is going battleground 370 00:36:29.719 --> 00:36:35.159 state by battleground state and showing that Trump is winn, winn, winning, 371 00:36:35.239 --> 00:36:39.480 winning in all these different battleground states. He's neck to neck, if not 372 00:36:39.559 --> 00:36:45.840 ahead, in even the popular vote, which if Trump wins the popular vote, 373 00:36:45.880 --> 00:36:50.880 I think the path for Biden to win the electoral college is a pretty 374 00:36:50.960 --> 00:36:58.519 darn slim, and it's leading to the Biden administration just sort of flailing, 375 00:36:58.559 --> 00:37:00.320 sort of, Oh, the polls are all wrong. The polls are all 376 00:37:00.360 --> 00:37:06.079 wrong, and now we're getting all the sort of negotiations back and forth about 377 00:37:06.119 --> 00:37:10.320 the presidential debates, where Biden's basically I just want presidential debates with no audience 378 00:37:10.760 --> 00:37:15.199 because that would kind of distract him, and I want him only on these 379 00:37:15.280 --> 00:37:22.199 networks, the network's most friendly to him. And so the Trump people like, 380 00:37:22.239 --> 00:37:24.519 all right, sure, sounds good, why don't we do these two 381 00:37:24.559 --> 00:37:29.000 additional debates also, So now I guess we're going back and forth about whether 382 00:37:29.000 --> 00:37:34.719 we're going to have two debates or four. I think Trump's going to win. 383 00:37:36.519 --> 00:37:39.880 I'll admit around this time last year, I thought Trump was going to 384 00:37:39.880 --> 00:37:45.679 lose. I thought I think the general strategy was the Democrats weren't going to 385 00:37:45.679 --> 00:37:49.800 bring any of their prosecutions until this year. Trump would be in the midst 386 00:37:49.840 --> 00:37:52.280 of all of his legal battles and being convicted of things right now, and 387 00:37:52.320 --> 00:37:55.079 that would lead him to lose the election. I just don't think this New 388 00:37:55.119 --> 00:37:59.639 York trial is really sticking, and I just don't know even if he is 389 00:37:59.719 --> 00:38:04.079 convict, he's not going to serve a day in jail likely, and I 390 00:38:04.119 --> 00:38:06.519 just don't think it's going to have the same impact because I think people have 391 00:38:06.639 --> 00:38:09.679 kind of already made up their minds. I don't know. I just I 392 00:38:09.679 --> 00:38:13.960 think he's gonna win. That'll do it for John Girardi's show. See y'all 393 00:38:13.960 --> 00:38:14.960 next time on Power Talk