Welcome to Fantasy Hockey Life, presented by fan Tracks, your source of information
and analysis to help you win your fantasy hockey league. Fuck off, that's
a step hit on. Stay lost, fool. Here's your hosts, Jesse
sup Here and Victor Nunjo. Fantasy Hockey Live backs once again to talk fantasy
hockey. Is Jesse Severe of band Tracks and joining me. It's Victor Neunio.
Victor, how you doing today? I'm doing awesome, Jesse. Definitely
excited to talk some stars. I have a soft spot for the fifty eight
year old Joe Pavelski. He's doing great things still and I'm excited to hear
more about him and these stars that have a lot of fantasy upsides. So
can't wait to dig into that. Can't wait till also hear how you're doing?
Yeah, what is it? The stars at night are clean and bright
deep in the heart of Texas, go down in the heart of I'm not
sure I like this because anybody from Texas is extremely bothered by the way I
just did that. That's fun, but hopefully the people who are bothered by
do not include our special guest today, Taylor Barrett, who is going to
talk with us about those Dallas stars, Victor. Before we get there,
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NUNO twelve VIIC t O R and U n O one two. But they
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it. Victor, tell them about that. Yeah, great stuff at the
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Fantasy Hockey Life. That's good stuff. People should take a look at that,
but right now they should take a look at the Dallas Stars. Right
after this, we'd like to welcome today a guest from Defending Big d.
It is Taylor Bear. Taylor, how you doing to talk about the Dallas
Stars? Love it? Dog Basu Summer. Let's go talk to MACKI gotta
love it, gotta love it. The Dallas Star is the best of the
four professional sports teams in the metro area, slightly ahead of the Rangers,
and then probably the Mavericks after that, and then I don't know, there's
some other team down there somewhere, but nobody needs to pay attention to that.
This is the way to build rapport with a guest and sult their favorite
team within the first thirty seconds of the interview. All right, Taylor,
I'm recovering. I am not actually Cowboys fans. You are not Unsilt TV
at all. Oh nice. Just anybody who tunes into this podcast to listen
because it's Dallas content, well, immediately tune out. That's all right,
that's all right. I'm flailing, I'm recovering, but I'm ready to talk
stars. Let's talk about this team from last year, because I'd say it
was a pretty successful season. They were fourth in the West, so you
would think maybe a little down to the standings, but there were only three
points separating them from first place Vegas, and they made it all the way
to the Stanley Cup semifinals, where they lost too again Vegas. You don't
hear as much about Dallas, but in the last five years, these guys
have gone to the first round of gone out, second round, conference finals,
and Cup finals. Pretty remarkable. They've made it to each round once.
I can think of some teams that would not have minded that record.
In recent years. They've allowed the third fewest goals against. Last year,
they scored the seventh most on the eighth most shots. The power play was
very effective twenty five percent, fifth best execution in the league, and the
penalty killed was smothering eighty three point five percent was the third best. There's
seven point eight PIM per game, the league's sixth fewest. Might surprise playoff
watchers who saw the Jamie Ben's stuff. We'll get to him. Maybe that's
too soon, I shouldn't bring him up. But the team definitely has an
older coret cadre players and a newer cadre. Does this team believe that they
can get those two timelines of players together for another Cup Finals appearance? Taylor,
Yeah, they absolutely do. I think they actually have a very solid
blend of the two now. Like I think in season's past they've been maybe
a little bit too heavy on veteran presence not enough on the younger guys.
I think that patience that the GM Jim Nill always preaches about young prospects has
paid off for them. We've seen rupe hints bloom. You saw Jason Robertson
come in after a season in the AHL and just completely crush it. Didn't
suffer a sophomore slump. It's gotten better every year. Young kid like Wyatt
Johnson comes in at the at training camp. Last years. It makes a
team as a nineteen year old and they have a whole slew of them coming
up through the ranks now too, So I think there's a lot of optimism
for the Stars that they can continuously turn over key positions and key roles on
the team to some of these younger players. As guys like Tyler Sagan who
are coming off from major injuries try to recapture their game, or a decline
of a power forward like Jamie Benn, you can slot him down further down
the lineup better because you've got all these young guys that can take on those
roles. So I think there's a lot to like about Dallas. You started
with the guy who, as you say, crushing at Jason Robertson, boy,
Dallas just grew themselves a superstar. Forty six goals, sixty three assists,
one hundred and nine points in eighty two games at twenty three years old.
Four shots a game, forty one power play points. That's just crazy.
That's just crazy, Victor and I seem as a Tier one player next
year. Want to field time slip by quickly. This guy's first game in
the NHL came the month before the pandemic, and now he's an established NHL
veteran. Robertson Pavelski and hints more on. The two later played the most
five on five minutes together of any line in the NHL. I saw.
Robertson's goals were seventh overall in the NHL, and its overall points total second
highest in the fifty six years of Stars history, behind only the eighty one
one hundred fourteen points of Bobby Smith back when every goal was being scored and
high offense. Ara, let's just say so, Jason Robertson historic season,
all the stats off the page. What do you expect for the encore?
Honestly, just more of the same. He's been really consistent. Think about
Jason Robertson that I find absolutely fascinating. He is such a student of the
game, so he said last offseason he looked at all of the goals he
had scored and realized he hadn't really scored much on a one timer. So
he literally spent the summer working on his one timer to try to put that
into his arsenal. So like, he's always looking for ways to enhance his
game, to get better, to give himself more tools. And the thing
about Jason Robertson is he's not the fastest guy out there. He's not the
flashiest guy out there, he just always seems to find the right place at
the right time. He is just has his uncanny knack for timing, and
all of a sudden the goal goes in and you go, wait, how
did he even get there? Like, how did you just forget that Jason
Robertson existed? But I think because he doesn't have the flash of this speed,
teams underestimate him to a degree. But also you've got Rupy Hints,
who's super speedy, and Joe Pavelski, who's a wizard at scoring on the
same line. So it's like a choose your own adventure of who you're going
to try to shut down that particular night. You mentioned Rupe Hints, and
this is another guy who just blew up again last year thirty seven goals,
thirty eight assists for seventy five points and seventy three games. That was the
career highd points for the fin An upper body injury took him out of a
handful of games in mid January, but otherwise he stayed pretty consistently in the
lineup. His twenty four playoff points were actually tied for third in the NHL,
only a couple of Golden Knights stopped him and they got to play another
round. Hints also puts up two and a half shots a game, half
a hit, half a block. Not to nitpick, but the stats I
was looking at Taylor did not back up the silky votes he got last year.
It seems like the defense was maybe just a little more league average than
it was outstanding. But maybe maybe I'm seeing that incorrectly. What's the upside
of Rube Hints and what are you expecting this coming year? Before I address
that, I want to address the silky thing. So I think that the
stats only tell part of the story. With Rupe Hints. I think they
think, like, if you're not consistently watching Stars Hockey, you don't understand
the impact that he has on both sides of the puck. He does a
lot of things that turns defensive rushes to back to offense for his team.
He can shut that down because he is so fast and he is an incredible
threat on the penalty kill. So while the stats made up back it up
up, I will say he easily is going to grow into a Selkie contender
because he's just so good and he's just so fast. And when you have
a guy out there who can run like a Connor McDavid, he's gonna he's
gonna get noticed. And the fact that the Dallas Stars saw Luke Glendinning depart
this offseason just probably means that Hints ends up with more penalty killing time,
and I think that just makes that case stronger in terms of what to expect
from him this coming season. I think a lot of that is going to
boil down to how Dallas decides to line up their offense. I think there
is a lot of people talking about breaking up that trio the Captain American and
his wingmates. I think that there's some consideration to be had for trying maybe
like Whyatt Johnston between and then dropping Hints down it into that two C role
and maybe trying him out with Duchane and Tyler Sagan and see if you can
unlock some offensive potential for those guys. But I think it's actually really hard
to sit here in August and say, yeah, definitely break up the one
of the best scoring lines in all of hockey. But it's nice that they
have that option to go back to. So for me, I think it
comes down to how his utilization like pans out this year. But I can't
imagine him regressing. I only imagine him being able to provide more in terms
of that like penalty killing side. Yeah, the fantasy gms of hence Pavelski
and Robertson don't like that idea, but certainly for Why Johnston, that would
be incredible. We'll get to him a little bit later, but now we
are going to talk about the aforementioned Captain America, Joe Pavelski. I think
Jesse and I were a little too pessimistic on him coming into this season.
We were thinking he might be around the fiftieth rank forward. He ended up
at thirty seven, thirty seventh overall, and I have to say, you
know, at the beginning of this three year contract he had at seven million.
I did not see this coming. I was a long time Sharks fan.
I really loved Joe Pavelski, and I really hoped that he would continue
to do well. But I just because he's so slow and he was slowing
down, I was skeptical. He's proven that he doesn't need that right,
especially with the right linemates that he has, and he's so smart about where
to be and close to the net. At tipping pucks. He's so good,
and even though that first year in Dallas was subpar, he's been fantastic.
And I'm really not sure at this point when his production is going to
fall off, because it just seems like he continues to do really well.
Twenty eight goals forty forty nine to seventy seven point paced last season, along
with twenty seven power play points just incredible, and his hits, blocks,
and shots were sixty seventh at his position. He has been better in the
past, but that's still pretty good, and it seems like he's signing these
one year contracts now three point five million for this year in a cap league.
That's gold for basically a top line player, So you got a lot
like that. The one thing I don't like is looking at his Rampom chart
on Evolving Hockey, his actual goals per sixty were like nearly triple his expected
goals. But I also think that's something he can do because he does like
to stand near the net and tip pucks, and so I've seen this before
from him. He either doesn't get a shot or he tips it and it
goes in. So it's like that can be a really high percentage play because
of how he does it. So I guess Taylor a lot of rambling to
ask you, what do you think Pavelski can do this year? Any truth
to the rumors that he's actually Benjamin Button as a hockey player. I think
that maybe housing Whyatt Johnston kept him young last season. So he's talked a
lot about that here in Dallas, about how the youth on the team,
the Jason Robertson and and Johnston and Miro he's skinning on the back end,
and how he's excited to play hockey like he's excited to come to the rink
every day. They have a legit shot to win. The one year contract
thing I think is overblown a little bit. I think he just recognizes that
at his age he doesn't need multi year deals. I think that there's pretty
much an understood agreement that he's going to be here as long as he wants
to be here in Dallas, at least because the team has a legit shot
at winning the Cup, and that's the thing that at this point is most
important for him. His son like plays hockey here, plays with some of
the other guys on the team and their kids, and I think just from
off the ice perspective, it's been a really good fit for him. Yeah,
he struggled to just that first year away from San Jose. I think
any player would after spending ten plus years in one spot, But he's really
brought it on. And I think playing with Robertson and Hints like, there's
just something about these three players in each of their unique skills that just meshes
so well. And I think if two years of this the league hasn't figured
out how to slow them down. I don't know that a third year is
going to change that story. Yeah, for sure, Now that's good stuff.
I think he's going to keep producing as long as he's there. And
we already talked about why Johnston. I was going to pose him to you
as a bit of a pickum, but I just want to focus on Johnston
because he's so good and so incredible what he's done. He was a bit
of a surprise to make the team. I mean, he was really young
all season. He's in March fourteenth birthday, which something means he played the
entire pretty much the entire season as a nineteen year old, and his forty
one point pace may not seem that great. To people. But remember he
was nineteen for the entire season, and I pulled up this list, Taylor,
I want everyone to hear this. They were only twelve NHL forwards in
their entire history who played all eighty two games as a nineteen year old and
had more points than Whytt Johnson. So here's your list. Connor McDavid,
Stephen stamp Coos, Patrick Kane, Patrick Laney, Austin Matthews, Clean Color,
Lucas, Raymond, John Tavers, Gabe Blandiscog Jerome again La Sebastianajo,
and Pierre Luke Dubois. That's it. Those are all really good NHLers or
the best in the league slash future Hall of famers. So that's a list
of why Johnson is amongst and it's really incredible what he's done, even though
some of his underlyings maybe don't look that great. They're pretty average, which
I think for a nineteen year old, and the toughest league in the world
is really good. So you have to take all that with a grain of
salt. I think that there might be another gear here for Johnson. I
think that he might. I don't know that he's going to double his point
total in this year. But I think he can take another big step,
maybe get in that seventy point range. What do you expect from why Johnson
this year? I agree, and I think as the season went on,
Why Johnson earned the trust of the coaching staff, not just on the offensive
side, but also on the defensive side of the puck. He was often
being put out at the end of the game to hold one goal leads because
he's a responsible player, and I think that they're going to be looking as
a coaching staff to see if they can get him increase minutes. I think
the logical conclusion to that is maybe he doesn't pair next to Jamie Benn this
season. Now. I think there's some concern that if you don't put Jamie
Binn next to Wyatt Johnston, then Ben's numbers continue to decline and maybe there's
not a good fit. So he Johnson could end up being a byproduct of
just circumstance and sacrificing his stats for the good of the whole. But I
think that he could start seeing time on the penalty kill. I think he
could potentially play a larger role in that second power play unit, fill in
on the first fire play in case of injuries or if they just want to
give it a different look some nights. So I think that for me my
expectation for Whyatt Johnston, I easily could see him having a fifty point plus
season this year. I don't think that's so far out of the realm of
possibility. I think a lot of it's going to come down to who he
ultimately ends up lining up next to. If he gets elevated to a top
line and he plays with Joe Pavelski and Jason robertson sixty seventy points, like
easily, those guys just feed each other. I don't know. He's the
one that I have my eye on the most. I think in training camp
to see how they mix up the forwards because of the addition of Matt Dushane.
I think it kind of changes changes the game a little bit. Jamie
Ben, I think it could be summed up as where the heck did that
come from? The thirty three year old captain didn't quite recapture the ross trophy
form of a decade ago, but he got close. Would you believe three
point six two points per sixty were a career high for Jamie Ben? His
rates in those fund Dallas days. The freewheel in Dallas days never topped three
point two five per sixty. Now we's three point six two per sixty,
a career high seventeen point four percent on just under two and a half shots
a game. Yeah, that helps. And that denominator of less than sixteen
minutes on the ice, which is surprising. That was the lowest sense of
rookie year. Help explain that anomaly, But don't ruin my good vibes here.
He still throws over a hit a game. He and rookie White Johnston
were locked at the hip all year to very good effect. The advanced stats
suggest the defense isn't quite as strong these days from the tough vet, but
the scoring in the offense was just amazing. Was last year anomaly or is
there a reason to believe in this continued late career seventy point a year type
renaissance. I think there was reason to believe that he could keep this pace.
Primarily two things happened. One, you mentioned why Johnston. I think
playing with a fresh young guy and a guy who's so created with the puck
reinvigorated his game a little bit. But two, do you even actually changed
his offseason workout and training regiment before the last season, so I think he
realized that he needed to get a little leaner, he needed to be able
to maybe try to find a little bit more speed or at least maintain where
he's in terms of his skating. And so he came into camp looking really
good. And I know everybody says that every year, like, oh,
he's the best shape he's ever been, but I think you could actually say
that about Jamie Benn and it feel I'm must true. But and I think
the rejection in minutes are actually have played well for him because I think there's
a lot less what's the word, I'm looking for, a lot less desperation
for him to be the guy, like he can now just be another guy
because so many of these other offensive players have popped off, like Robertson and
Hints and pabil Sky and Johnston, and so I think that he has less
less weight of the world on him, so to speak, less on his
own shoulders. And then they also reduce the quality of those minutes as well,
in terms of he's not going out and playing on the penalty kill as
often as he had been in the past, like he had always been a
two way guy for them, so he's playing less of those grinding minutes and
so I think that balance has helped him to focus on offense and it's played
out really well for him. Of the two guys who have been identified with
his franchise for a long time, the other Tyler Sagan, that's the guy
I always think is going to have the bounce back, and like he said,
injuries. He had fifty points in seventy six games with two and a
half shots a game over a hit per game. Continues to be an excellent
faceoff guy, by the way, fifty four point seven percent on eight hundred
and seventy faceoffs last year. This was the first time in Sagan's nine healthy
years in Dallas aside from the two hip years where Jamie Ben was not his
top linematee they actually played together only five percent of the time at five on
five, they just weren't together. Sagan is still only thirty one years old,
but he's taken some mileage over the years. There's no doubt about it
that six years stretch of his mid twenties where he was seventy and eighty plus
points a year are a little bit in the rear view mirror now, and
he's just coming back in the back half of this eight year, nearly ten
million dollars a year contract. He definitely was not playing with those top six
players. That's part of the explanation. He's playing with some down ballid players
for sure, compared to the elite on this franchise. But what do you
expect from Tyler Sagan going into next year? Is this kind of the new
normal with Tyler? We should just shell out his body has got him to
this point where he's going to be a little bit more of a depth guy
on this team. Or do you think that there's a possibility he could bounce
back to look like the Tyler Sagan a five years ago. I think Tyler
Sagan is the one guy that is the hardest to project on this team for
next season because for me, he was victim last year to Mason Marchmont's historically
bad stretch where he the poor kid, could not score a goal, like
literally could not hit the broadside of a barn with a shot. I think
it was over thirty games between goals for him. So when you've got a
that is struggling that much, there's only so much tyler Sagan can do on
the ice to help that situation, So I think that having I think his
bounce back probably depends on who he's playing with, and so that's why I
think the acquisition of Matt Dushane could be really pivotal for this team, because
I wonder if there is some potential chemistry and magic that can be unlocked if
you put those two on a line together and then rotate out either Marchmont or
maybe it's another young guy or a more responsible two way forward on that line,
and maybe there's something there. And so I do I think, I
hate to say it, but his season is definitively going to just track back
to who he's playing with, and that second power play unit is has been
may I will say, like most of the scoring comes from the top unit.
You expect that, but the danger has also mostly come from that top
unit as well. Here's the second unit A lot of times just was put
out there to get the top guys rest. So I think I would like
to see maybe some mix up on that, and I think if they can
get some good personnel going on the second unit, maybe you see an uptick
because Sagan will still get power play time the aforementioned Matt Duchane new addition to
this stall's probably the most prominent new addition to the top lines of this team.
Dallas plucked him off waivers Nashville decided to clean the books and move him
out. That seven year, eight million per contract that Nashville had has turned
into a one year, three million dollars prove it deal for the Dallas Stars.
Twenty two goals, thirty four assists for fifty six points and seventy one
games. It wasn't a horrible year, but he wasn't going to be part
of Nashville's plants, certainly especially in the salary area. He hurt his hand
towards the end of the year and he was shut down. And all this
came year after Ducing is just red hot eighty six point in seventy eight game
season where he got damnpell at All Star votes. He's just one year off
that at this point. Certainly, the nineteen percent shooting that he had a
couple of years ago was going to regress back to something more like his thirteen
percent career mark, and it did so. Du Shane is just getting to
this Dallas Stars team, so obviously he's not a guy who you spent all
of last year watching, But how do you think he will be used and
how much do you think he could produce as a Dallas star. Yeah,
it's funny you say that, but he was in the division, so we
saw him quite a bit actually over the course of the last few seasons.
I think he's probably really excited to finally be on the winning side of the
Dallas Nashville narrative between the Winner Classic and John Kleenberg's overtime game or round score
to eliminate them in the first round a few years back. I think he's
probably pretty excited to be on the team that looks like they're on the upswing.
And I think you get a lot out of guys that are mote evated
from being bought out, from wanting to prove and now you're in division,
so now you get to be like, hey, look at me, and
look at me a lot this year. And I think again, he's another
guy that is going to benefit from not having to be the guy that This
Dallas offense is pretty deep, which is good and you need that depth.
But I think as long as he can come in and find some chemistry with
at least one guy. I think he's going to be an option on special
teams, He's going to be an option on power play, all that good
stuff. So I think maybe fifty points seems pretty reasonable for a third line
guy. Probably he's probably projected to be third line I don't see why not.
Honestly, like at this point, I'm just like, I think Dallas
is going all in on just let's just score all the goals. Can be
average when you have Jake Oddinger back there too, so we don't Maybe we
don't need to be the top defensive team in the league, but we can
match up against anybody. If you want to play one game, we can
figure that out. But we can also we're also comfortable in the five four
games. I hear that scoring all the goals is a good strategy in the
game of hockey, so Vegas would tell you, yes, all right.
Mason Marchmont, you mentioned him. He is a bit of a late bloomer.
His forty seven point fifty four game year for the President's Trophy Cats a
couple of years ago made the twenty eight year old a lot of paper four
years times four point five for the Stars Superstar contract, but pretty darn good
for a guy who popped up that year. The first of those years saw
him with a career high average timonies at fifteen forty two, but as you
mentioned, the scoring was not there, only thirty one points in sixty nine
games. Impact wasn't all that strong in the advanced numbers. He actually posted
a negative goals above replacement for the year according to Evolving Hockey, and he
missed a month late in the campaign from a knee injury, but came back
for the end of the season. In the playoffs, he was a regular
partner on Sagan's line. Sagan's line. Is he likely to have that role
again? You've mentioned how maybe he would flip around somewhere in that bottom six,
and could you see any change to the results? It is he just
going to get some better luck this year or what? I can't imagine he
goes through another thirty plus game goal scoring goal less streak, So I imagine
that. I imagine, Yes, I think he gets a little bit of
bounced back. I think that the human element with Marchmont can't be understated either.
Last season he lost his dad in the off season right before he signed
with Dallas. He so he changed teams. He last a very important person
to him, and I think that people forget like you don't just bounce like
you. You're not a robot. You can't just turn those emotions off.
You can't just be like, oh like probably something that I imagine was a
big bond for them. Maybe he called his dad after every game and talked
about his game like you don't know, and so to have that taken from
him. I think there's probably a lot of very human reasons why the season
went the way it did with Mason last season, and I think he gets
a lot of patience because of it. I think that you have to just
as a human person, you have to give him that space to deal as
he needs to. In terms of his actual scoring for this coming season,
I do imagine he has a little bit of a bounce back. I think
he's now more familiar with the system, familiar with what is expected out of
him. Again, doesn't have to be the guy. I think that Dallas
has basically already made it known. Yeah, you make this, but we
don't expect you to. You don't have to try to prove it every game.
We've got guys higher up the lineup that carry the weight of the offense,
So just go play your game. But he'll still get powerplay time.
He'll still get that in that bottom six role. Even I think he has
a bounce back season personally tremendous, and then one more point pick him among
veterans on the team of Guinea Dad Knof, Sam Steele, the thirty four
year old of Guiney is on his fifth team of the twenty twenties. He's
a scorer for higher at this point. And the twenty five year old Steel
had a better year last year with the Wild than he ever did with the
Doctor. Half point per game type situation with this guy who you got dat
nav versus Steel. I think dat Knof mainly because he is like a Pete
the Board guy. Like he has signed with Pete the Boor's teams several times
over the course of his career, so I think he's just familiar with what
Pete wants in his system, what he expects out of him. I think
that he really brought something that was missing on that third line with Jamie Binn
and White Johnston. His wrap around goal in the playoffs, if you I
don't think it can be understated how traumatized the Dallas Stars fan bases by wrap
around attempts because Jamie Binn St Louis sec it around a few years ago.
It goes in completely different vibe and then he and then every attempt like ever
since has never gone in and so Dallas has just been cursed and don'tov broke
it like he did it. He did that this year. I think there's
a lots of for him. For Sam Steele, I just have a sinking
feeling that he's going to end up being at thirteenth fourteenth forward that I just
don't know if there's enough, like just not knowing enough about him and looking
at the depth chart, I just don't know how consistently he's going to be
in the lineup this season. Yeah, that's very fair. Let's talk about
one more little thing. We are going to discuss the youngsters in a separate
part of the show. But I'm just wondering if you think Bork or Stan
Covin will make the team or have any significant impact this year beyond a nine
game slide. I don't know that the nine game is actually a situation for
either of those guys. Covin has now aged out, so he will be
in the HL this season, and Bork was in the HL last season,
So I don't think that is the concern or consideration for the stars from training
camp. I think there's a lot of depths and unless one of them just
really shows out or provides something that is not on the depth chart right now,
Like if Bork comes in as an incredible penalty killer at the NHL level
in preseason, maybe he makes the fourth line role because that's something that Dallas
is going to need to replace with Glenda NaN's departure. I would personally love
to see Stankovin just come out and completely crush it and make the team out
of camp. I think that he has a he just has a motor on
him that he just plays this all out, just constant attack game. That
is something that Dallas could use a little spark of in that kind of middle
six. But I don't think it's worth him being up in Dallas if he's
only going to be playing in fourth line minutes. Send him to the HL,
put him on your top line, get him big boy minutes down there,
just because I think a lot you can really destroy a young guy's confidence
if you don't put him in a role where he's going to succeed. And
Stankovin projects as a top six forward. So if you don't have a top
six spot for him, put him in a top six spot down in the
AHL, let him cook for a season, and then with j Donov or
whoever aging out next year not resigning, or whoever they trade out at the
deadline, then I think it opens up a spot for him. No,
I guess there is the long winded answer. No, I don't think either
one of them make a significant impact. But I could see a situation where
Stankovin goes down to the HL and then pulls a Thomas Harley where he gets
called up at the end of the season and then makes an incredible impact in
the playoffs. So I for the regular season, I would say probably not.
It wouldn't bet on either of them. Oh, we're gonna get to
some Thomas Harley talk, but yeah, thank you for that. First.
I would love to see Stanky do some great stuff, even at the end
of the season, if not earlier. But yeah, he's definitely got my
eye on him. So yeah, watch training camp, watch watch defending Big
D and I'm sure you'll be covering all that. Let's move on to the
D now though the defenseman me or High Skin and of course as the first
guy we got to talk about Jesse and I missed on him. I would
say we were thinking he'd be somewhere on the thirty to fiftieth best defenseman in
Fantasy, and he finished as number eight all four seasons. Previously being roughly
a forty point defenseman, High Skinn finally broke out for nearly a point per
game. Eleven goals sixty two assists is how he got to his seventy six
point pace, along with thirty four power play points, which was a monster
number considering he had hit eleven twice in the previous two seasons. We figured
that would happen with more opportunity and deployment coming his way at Klingberg moving on,
but that was a massive step forward. He's never been the biggest bash
guy sixty first at his position, but obviously with more minutes he is doing
a fair amount of that. He's got six years left at eight point four
or five million, seems like a great number for one of the top d
in the league. And we always think of him as being more two way.
I always do anyways, and he's certainly great defensively, but his power
play numbers are off the charts, like he was incredible last year on the
man advantage's expected goals practically broke the chart out Evolving Hockey, So he was
fantastic, And the main difference I see in his underlyings is that he had
one more minute of time on ice that went straight to the power play time
on ice. His shooting percentage IP and PDO were pretty in line considering like
who he is and what we expect, so I don't really see a reason
why he can't keep doing this. So Taylor is nearly a point per game
high skin in here to stay. Yes, you are all finally seeing the
Mirro hayskinning that we have been touting here in Dallas, and that more people
should watch more consistently because he is just phenomenal at the game. He I
think he's been spending a lot of time before practice with a certain Joe Pavelski
and learning where Joe Pavelski likes those point shots to be kind of placed for
his ideal tipping situations. So I think that Miro is truly coming into his
own. He's truly starting to own that blue line as the guy for years,
he's been behind John Klingberg and had deferred to him. I think that
this year they really talked to Miro about not deferring to his veteran partner and
really taking the offensive. If the shots there, go get it. Like
I think the system that Peterboord has plays to Mirro Hayskin and strengths very well,
and I don't see them changing that because it was pretty successful for them
in the first year. Yeah, I think it's funny you say all that
he did all of this dragging around Ryan Seuter on his side. So if
you envision a future where Ryan Suter is no longer on the Dallas Stars roster,
you I think you just see more and more opportunity for him to continue
to grow and put up points. There are several other defensemen who make a
real life impact. It's hard for us fantasy folks because some of them,
the Lendell's of the world, don't have as much for a fantasy side.
But are there any other defenseman on this team you think might get us a
thirty five point season this year? Oh? Thomas Harley, without a doubt.
I think that he is a perfect example of a guy coming back motivated
like he I think it's expected and thought that he was ready to make the
team out of training camp last season. The team said, we need you
to get some time in the HL. First, you're gonna be our first
call up in terms of injuries, and then they were the healthiest team in
the league, which you can't expect that to continue. So I think that
Thomas Harley is going to have a real opportunity to come in and be the
guy on the second power play unit potentially. I think that's something they're definitely
going to look at in training camp to see if there's Like I said,
that second power play unit needs something because it was at times very ineffective last
season, so trying out some different things there and some tweaks. I think
in personnel he's gonna have a lot of opportunity to take that on. And
I think he'll also have a lot of opportunity to really drive a second pair
if he doesn't end up paired next to mirrorhy Skinning. I'd like to see
him on a pairing where he is the guy and not just a guy,
so pairing him next to him EASTA Lindel. Even though Lindell has got to
be the funniest guy from a fantasy perspective, just because he's just there.
Like his underlying numbers are always so bad, but he is effective. Still,
I don't he's an anomaly. I don't under quite understand. The eye
tests and the underline stats with him never seemed to match. But having a
veteran guy like him next to Thomas Harley, I think could give him a
lot of confidence and honestly probably could improve Lindell's game too, because Lindell,
for the longest time was next to a guy John Kleenberg, who wanted the
puck all the time, who wanted to be the puck mover, and he
was happy to make that first pass and let him go. I think Thomas
Harley could be great in that kind of situations. Yeah. I think the
defense is the one where I am the most curious to see how they end
up lining up these guys, because one thing I know for sure is ease
Lindel and Jonny Hawk and Paw cannot be appearing like that is just it's disaster.
Yeah, that sounds tough, And if you heard any screaming coming from
CALIFORNI to move Thomas Harley up the lineup. It was coming for me because
I was so wanting that, and he was, yeah, as you said,
being more just a guy, and he was incredible I thought watching him
in the playoffs, especially as it got harder and the rush chances against were
coming fast and furious, and he was doing much better than everyone not named
mirror Hi Skinnin on the team. He just got better as the rounds got
as they went deeper. Thomas Harley's game just got better and better every game,
and he was awarded more minutes I think as a result. So I
imagine that the coaching staff has got to be pretty excited to have him in
the lineup full time this season, and maybe his insertion into the lineup takes
some minutes off of guys that don't need it anymore. Yeah, that's a
nice way of putting it. So yeah, get your Thomas Harley Shares.
I'm very excited about him. Let's move on to the goalies. The Stars
were ranked third and spect goals against per sixty and conceded the fourth number of
actuables, so they're pretty in line with what would be expected a really good
defensive team. And of course we have to start with Jake Ottinger. What
a stud the Otter was. He was what we'd hoped or thought he could
be. Third and wins seven and state percentage for volume goalies fifteenth and delta
Fenwick for goalies over twelve hundred minutes and seventeenth and goals save above expected for
thirty seven eleven and eleven record nine nineteen say percentage five shoutouts. My favorite
thing about him, aside from his cool nickname, is that in cap leagues
he has a really great cap hit. Of all the top goalies, he's
probably the most affordable. Had four million for two more years before he's an
RFA. I imagine that number goes up quite a bit at that point.
But he's just a stud. So Taylor, it seems like Ottinger has really
arrived in this sort of elite goalie conversation, especially with the Stars being a
good team. And I have to imagine he can just maintain what he did
last year. Is that about? What do you expect from him? Or
maybe a step forward. I think he'd like to see a little step forward.
Personally, I think that he played too many games last season injury to
Scott Wedgwood. Down the stretch saw Jake Ottinger play a number of games in
a row and he struggled a little bit when it's that stretch was just not
as good for him. And then the other thing that I think people forget
is Autinger actually got hurt and then he played through an injury all season and
all playoffs. And so I think that one percent healthy Jake Ottinger coming back
this season. Hopefully Scott Wedgwood doesn't have another injury like he did last season
that kept him out and Jake and they can better split and give better give
more rest to Ottinger to have him fresher for the playoffs, because I think
they expect to have another deep run this season. The problem I think in
Dallas is that there's not a really good third option in this system. So
if Ottinger gets hurt, Dallas is going to sink. Because there's Wedgewood is
fine as a backup, you do not want him as your number one starter
for a long stretch of any time. And they don't really feel confident that
they have a guy who could come in and actually win games behind Wedgewoods.
So I think for Ottinger it's gonna all boil down to just staying healthy.
Yeah, for sure. I was going to ask you a little bit about
at Wedgewall, which is one of the best Twitter handles for Wedgewood, And
yeah, it seems like he was really really great human. I don't want
he is a great person, but he's just on the backside of his career,
so like he's a perfect backup in my opinion, be clear. Yeah,
And I was going to ask you if you thought he would get more
than his twenty one games he had last year, because he was really good
in those appearances. And as you mentioned, spelling Odinger a little bit,
it seems might be good. It definitely seemed like Ottinger like the volume affected
him a little bit, especially at the end. I just saw him like
make letting goals and make some mistakes that he wasn't making earlier in the season,
which was really unfortunate timing obviously. But yeah, you think Wedgwood plays
a little more, let's say Ottinger doesn't. Didn't. Ottinger said that the
playing time wasn't didn't impact him at all. I think it was probably more
that he was injured during that stretch and he just didn't want to let on
and so when people were it's a natural conclusion that if he's playing a lot
of games and struggling, then you know the issue is a number of games.
And he said he wants to be like a Vassilevski, he wants to
play sixty plus games this season and be the backbone in the playoffs. But
it was also just his first first full season realistically, so he expects a
lot out of himself. I think there's a good reason why he expects a
lot out of himself. But I do think if they could find a little
bit better balance between Wedgwood and Attinger, like, I think maybe thirty games
for Wedgwood is probably the more ideal from Dallas perspective, and I think barrin
injury Wedgewood should get that. I think he's shown and the guys are showing
confidence that they believe he's going to make the save that they need when he's
a nut. So yeah, I think maybe a little bit more playtime this
season for Wedgie as the team calls him. All right, Taylor, this
has been some great insight on the Dallas Stars. Why don't you let people
know how they can follow you at defending Big D and anywhere else they should
be following you out there. Yeah. Yeah, on all the socials.
My handle is Taylor D. Baird. D is my middle initial and then
convenient for defending big D and then yeah at definite big D. I also
write for nhil dot com in town, so you can find me a little
bit everywhere. Tremendous. Thanks so much for being on today, Taylor.
Yeah, thanks for having me, Guys Wilson. Then that's good fires passed
off, goodness quick grab. Now it's your weekly goalie talk with Kats Silverman
Cat's Instincts. Time again for Kat's Instincts with Kats Silverman in Gold mag Dallas
Star edition of course, and had a couple of interesting guys here. The
first one Adam Shiel, twenty four year old undrafted player six foot four hundred
ninety pounds playing mainly in the ECHL this past year, and his numbers were
pretty good there thirty seven games, one point ninety seven ga nine thirty two
save percentage. He actually played a bunch of playoff games in their run in
the playoffs and looked really good doing it, and it got a couple of
games in with the Texas Stars didn't look so good and so it's actually his
second year mainly in the AHL e CHL. He got a little bit three
years seasons ago, a little bit of time in the AHL, and then
he was a product of the North Dakota Collegiance system and so a little bit
older. And I was looking at some of the underlyings at sport Logic.
They don't look so good for him. Actually, some of his say percentage
above expected numbers are they're closer to league average, which is not what you
would want from one of your top prospects. But tell us a little bit
about Adam Shield. Did they sign a nice little project here that has some
potential? What do you think? Dallas is a wild card for me?
I feel like both in the way that they dropped their goaltenders and in kind
of what they do at the NHL level with their goalies. They love guys
who you don't really know what's going on with them on the ice, and
you don't always love the underlying numbers, but somehow it works. Most notably,
they've had a they had Anti Miami, they had Kari Letton, and
they had Anton Hudobin there for a little bit, maybe my favorite to interview.
He was their go to guy for a couple of years there, and
when I asked him about his technical style one time, he was like,
what technical style? Do I stop the puck? Yeah? Does it go
in the next No? It does not. Is that my style? It
sure is? And I was like, I love you. And that's what
they seem to go for it. They don't see. You see some of
the teams go for a really structure and they pick goaltenders that all have a
very similar technical style to their game, which makes it easier for them to
almost draft and develop and for the team to create a system in front of
them. You saw it in Saint Louis where they really went with a lot
of guys who were good at essentially initiating that first pass breakout from the defensive
zone and Dallas goes in the opposite direction. And that's where I put Adam
shield he. I was watching a couple of highlights from both the HL and
the c HL this last year, and he's really good at not panicking when
he allows a nasty rebound and the puck comes right back to him, so
he says cool under pressure. He has really quick feet. He reminded me
of some of the top tier collegiate goalies who are able to stay cool when
the defensive system in front of just hasn't matured the way that you would want
to see it. But that being said, he also didn't necessarily help his
team in any way by controlling the plane, creating a consistent pattern to when
he released the puck, when he held onto it, when he decided to
allow a rebound, what direction he sent his rebounds. It was all a
very quick reactions, quick instincts, but a very reactionary based game. I
don't know. He might be in their system realistically, just to get them
through the next couple of years, get them over that hump, because they
do have a star and Jake gott in jury right now, so they don't
necessarily need to have someone else who's banging on the door, because they certainly
don't want to repeat of their Jack Campbell incident where they had a really good
start, didn't really have a spot for him, He remained a prospect a
little too long, started to lose confidence, and essentially they ended up having
to send him off to essentially become a reclamation project somewhere else. And I
think they've become hyper aware of that in Dallas. But no, I'm not
super excited to see Adam Shiel in the NHL because I don't know if it
will happen. But as a prospect, I think he's fun to watch and
I don't think he's going to do any damage, which I think is as
good as you can say for them right now. The Adam Shiel or sorry,
the Jack Campbell incident sounds like a band, a good band name.
That'd be a really good band to play at ac out there in Austin.
All right, So the next guy is Matt Murray. No, you didn't
miss hear that. There is another Matt Murray. He's another undrafted, undersized
player. And he's the other Matt Murray. I guess you could call him.
He's twenty five years old. He's had a pretty interesting trajectory. First
of all, he's six one ninety four pounds, so not like super small,
but definitely a little bit under size. He's first of all, he's
Canadian, and then he went he was in the AJHL, then he went
to the USAHL, probably in hopes of getting drafted. I actually looked okay
in terms of his round numbers, but didn't get drafted. Went to UMass
played a bunch there all four years, sorry, five years, and never
really got a look, and then basically signed an ato with the Texas Stars,
and he was great in the six game sample in twenty one twenty two,
and then basically they brought him back this past year and he was the
main guy there in Texas for the Stars. And looking at his underlyings,
one of one thing that's really impressive about him is his save percent above expected
was one of the tops in the AHL this past year, So that's good.
So the question, Kat is what ringstings tell us about Matt Murray?
Is he the second coming of Matt Murray? I hope not because the Matt
Murray is I believe on long term injured reserve and may not play again anytime
soon. But from a hopeful NHL or perspective, I think he's got a
shot just because he has maintained so much consistency. He looked good in the
AJHL, he looked fine in the USAHL. I thought he looked really good
at UMass. He did take advantage of that extra COVID year. Even though
he managed to play through all four years of eligibility, he took that extra
year and he played, and he got his ATO, and he's been playing
really well. And sometimes when you see guys who very clearly want to get
drafted and go pro and things aren't working out in their favor, you start
seeing them almost panic, and so their technique slides a little. If they're
not getting the looks on the ice that they want. They transferred to another
school, they sign a pro tryout in the ECHL after their third or fourth
year of college, just hoping that someone will see them play a pro game.
And he's remained a patient and rolled with it and hasn't seen his technique
slip at all. I think he's got a really good skating foundation, which
is good because he doesn't need that extra little bit of speed since he has
a little on the smaller side. Didn't notice anything in the games that I
watched that suggested that he had the most top tier instincts or reaction time.
His tracking looked just fine. Everything about his game just looked fine. But
I think that's a testament in his favor, since he has been stuck a
level below where he wants to be almost every years he didn't get drafted,
he spent an extra year in college he's been playing in the HL. They
signed another guy. I think the fact that he hasn't seen any slips in
his game is a sign that he peep us, enjoys what he's doing,
and even though it's undoubtedly frustrating to not be seeing that upwards movement that I'm
sure he wants, he's being patient about it, and I don't think at
this point I think we'd know if he was going to be a star in
NHL or because he would have seen a big jump forward at this point his
technique and in his style. But I think he could make a really good
tweener with some call up potential, maybe even like a Carter Hutton type player,
able to become a career backup with just solid, consistent numbers and a
solid consistent technical foundation that doesn't ever reach NHL starter potential but never really drops
off either. So if that's the best case for him, I think that's
pretty good. And if that's the best case for Dallas, that's someone teams
need in their system, so good on them. Yeah, definitely. And
I forgot to mention he did play a couple of three games in the NHL
this season, which didn't go particularly well. But he was there. They
didn't go well, but they didn't go as poorly as we've seen some other
guys make their NHL debuts, so we can't complain too much about that.
No, and as you said, could be a useful guy in the system.
So thank you so much for giving us your instincts on the Dallas Stars
goalies. We'll be back right after this. The Dynasty dig back marked by
Dallas Stars DYNA Dynasty Dig. Victor ranked the system square in the middle sixteenth
and the Stars didn't get to play in the draft very much this year.
They didn't get to pick until the sixties. That doesn't matter, Victor,
you've already said the name. I know what you're gonna say right now.
The no brainer for the Dallas Stars is Logan stank Covin. It's Stanky Time,
twenty twenty one, second round pick by Dallas. Yeah, he's still
only five foot eight. That is always the knock on him. He hasn't
really grown. He's got a little thicker one hundred and seventy pounds now.
He played his fourth season in the WHL for Kamloops, where he's been there
captain for the last two years. Thirty four goals sixty three assists in forty
eight games during the regular season was pretty pretty good, along with some pretty
nice playoff performance thirty points in fourteen games. He a member captain of the
Memorial Cup hosts Blazers did not quite get it done, but they he was
really good. It wasn't really his fault, that's for sure. He looked
great all throughout. He had three goals and eight assists for Canada at the
World Juniors and route to a gold medal, his third gold for Canada,
a U eighteen gold and two U twenty golds. He's signed his entry level
deal, so he should be either in the NHL or the HL. As
wescussed previously and looking at some of his tracking data with Mitch Brown's project,
he ranks out at one hundred overall one hundred. That's pretty good out of
one hundred. Offense at nine nine transition game out of ninety nine. The
only thing that's a little bit lower is the defense, which he ranks at
sixty eight, which isn't terrible, but his defensive play his CORSI against was
a little bit below average. Most of the rest of the numbers, including
his transition success entries exits, his off puck assists, his advantages created all
that looks excellent, really good, including his best asset, which is probably
his playmaking his expected primary assist for sixty off the charts. Really good stuff
there from Mitch Brown's data on the tracking data. But we need to dial
in a little bit more Jesse. So let's hear from our FHL scout on
logan Stankovin and our scout on this one is branded Thank you Brandon for forgetting
this one done. Great guy skating for stank Ovin. He's a high torch
skater, generates speed off acceleration, keeps producing force while cruising around slower speeds
or positional work with the puck like on the power play. He has an
acute sense of edgework and we'll use tea pushes and shuffles to create separation and
add a layer of evasiveness passing in handling, Steinkovin's an efficient puck carrier,
always seems to poised to do something with the puck. Very slick and confident
hands. Is comfortable using all aspects of his blades to keep a play alive
or create a new. Accurate passes with confident finesse and with purpose, shooting
wide range of shot styles, from high skilled dragging wrist shots with altered angles
using the defender as a screen, to outside edge risterers, the deflections,
and one touch snapshots. Stankovin is content with not waiting for the perfect shot
to arise and uses this to his advantage, as the goaltender is then less
prone to be set for the shot. IQ is thinking the game several steps
ahead of the rest of the ice, especially when the puck is on the
stick. Poised and comfortable in holding the puck and being the driver of the
play without the puck, anticipating where the play will develop. Always engaged and
attentive. After making a ass he's often on the move to capitalize on some
newly opened up real estate or checking if he's an F one. He's very
direct in this approach, and we'll put pressure on the opponents. Even the
goaltender with a fairly full head of steam. Defense very responsible in the d
zone, can be both pesky and tenacious in pursuit of the puck. Skating
and timing have allowed him to disrupt plays just before they become critical threats.
His best asset intelligence mixed with his motor and the biggest concerned faceoffs if expected
to continue on it as a center in the pros. The heights of minor
concern, but general size and stability is not. So. What is the
top possible outcome for staink Copen and Brandon says ninety plus point top line volume
shooter deployed in all situations would be frightening if playing with a similar dynamic play
driving linemate. Lucky for everybody else, Dallas doesn't have any of those fiftieth
percentile tier outcome for this guy middle sixth forward fifty to sixty points. Some
special teams work where his progress and ceiling is stunted by the physical rigors of
the NHL game, And as stylistic comparable the stable yet dynamic skating style of
Sidney Crosby and Nathan McKinnon, mixed with Marner's flow and census for the game
and Patty Kane's stick handling, it sounds like we've created Frankenstein's hockey player right
there, and to be very afraid. The NHL rank King data and poll
he comes out as above first line in terms of his p NHL E equivalency,
looking like a Jeff Skinner or Mark Stone and the competition, the head
to head is set up against Shane Wright, who would have believed that two
years ago that this was going to be a competition, and in fact the
competition went to Logan staink Covin Oversheen Wright, Shane Right, the ultimate Bilow.
Maybe Steinkovin is a cell high right now. I don't know, Victor.
Do you think Logan stain Covin is easily the victor Oversheen Right in competition?
Yeah? I do. I would definitely rather have Logan stan Covin then
Shane Wright. I know it may seem a little strange to some based on
where they were drafted, stan Covin being a second round pick and Right being
the presumed number one for a long time, and then in and up down
at four fourth overall, But yeah, I think that the upside is still
quite high for stank Covin, and I like how much he's improved his projection
even after a few years, which is something that Wright had such a weird
year. We talked about it previously, playing in a lot of different leagues
and getting bounced around. It was hard for him to really show what he
could do. But he did look good in the OHL when he was there.
That was the place he played the most. But I think that stank
Covin has more points upside right now, it actually does look like Right has
more star potential. He's hovering at that sixty percent mark, and they're both
pretty much locks to be NHL or S. Stank Covin a little bit lower
at forty percent, but he's got that really nice upward trajectory, whereas Right
it's been a little bit flat and being balanced all around. So I like
me some stank Covin. You know this, And in terms of Stankovin's own
comps, he has a couple of really good ones like Miroslav Shaitan, Saku
Koivu. The one that Ny put here is Brandon Sod, which is not
nearly as exciting and actually has a downward trajectory, So I don't like that
one as much. But I do think stank Covin is someone who is going
to play in the NHL. I don't think the size is going to be
an issue, and he's a dynamic playmaker and I don't think he's gonna fall
into the trap of that might happen with Shane wright, which is they might
put him in more two way situations, and especially the way Seattle has always
run their lines, it would be very frustrating because he's just going to be
another guy. He's going to get sixteen to eighteen minutes and be anywhere from
the first to third line. So that's also a little disappointing for We'll see,
maybe that'll change. The top down Hawk model has stank covid at fourteen
percent chance of being a star and sixty three percent chance of being an NHLer.
This model is always more conservative, so those numbers are still pretty good.
But yeah, I like me some. I like with some stanky Jesse
boy, I know you do, Victor. Let's move on to the need
to know prospect. Who is it? The need to know is Christian Cairou
Dallas's second round pick from last year twenty twenty two. Five ten hundred and
eighty three pound right hand a. D was nearly a point per game last
season and this season went over in two stints he was with the Eerie Otters
before he got traded to the Sarnia Sting. He was over point per game
in both places, a little bit lower in the playoffs for Sarnia, but
twenty goals fifty seven assists in sixty four games combined with both Erie and Sarnia.
And reminder that he's literally about as old as you can be for his
draft season September sixteenth birth date, so that means he was just as old
as you can be, so that maybe a little bit lowers his runway in
terms of how much he can improve from here. And yes, in case
you hadn't heard, he is Jordan Cairo's little brother. And in terms of
the rest of the information we got to hear from our FHL scouts about Christian
Cairou and our FHL scout this time is Jeremy once again, love you,
Jeremy. Thanks for the work on this. Skating for Cairo. Elite smooth
stride that allows him to get back in position or join the rush and the
traditional game passing and handling is above average. His passing's fine, but not
elite. He holds the puck well and shields with his body better than someone
his size should be able to. Shooting is above average, making it a
very good shot here. If you put him in the skills competition, I
bet it look great, says Jeremy isn't particularly well utilize, though, so
that's one of the biggest spaces for growth. IQ elite. He has good
instinct for when to join the rush or pinch versus staying back. Additionally,
his vision with the puck is very good. He will patiently hold on to
it for teammates to join him in the zone defense above average. Cairo's rush
defense is phenomenal. He's fast, has a quick stick, and is good
at gapping up. His end zone is a bit worse, but at least
average. Positionally sound, but lacks a bit of tenacity or aggression in front
of the net. Best asset is the IQ. He's a smart player,
is Kirou. He's very good at deciding when to join the runch or pinch
versus gapping up. Biggest concern size. I know we're all about dynamic,
small right handed d in the league, says Jeremy, But Kira doesn't quite
have that elite skill set. He profiles more as a steady two way transitional
guy, which is a bit harder to make it if you're undersized. So
the top tier that Jeremy sees him coming out at would be a second pairing
minute muncher with occasional power play one stints. Probably more of a steady guy
than a dynamic top pairing guy. Fifty percentile role the middle outcome for this
guy, third pairing sixteen minutes a night, d if his offense does play
uppers size becomes an issue. There's no bad skill here, so the floor
should be pretty safe. Stylistic comparable a small Adam Larson. His gap control
and movement off the puck is similar, and Larson has some offense when given
the green light as well. Cairo's p NHL E similarity score has trended upwards
to actually first line potential just right now. Connor Timmins, Kandre Miller,
Joe Marrow at the top matches on p NHL E and the competition. We're
going to put him in for the NHL Rank King poll as Christian Kaira reversus
Christian Luno of the Anaheim Ducks, the number two pick in the draft last
year, actually taken three picks after Christian Kirou in the same draft, and
it went up and everybody loves them. Some Anaheim Duck the men because Christian
Luno knowses out Christian Kirou fifty two to forty eight. I don't know,
Victor, I thought you were a Cairous stand in the past. Are you
in favor of him coming out of Luno? Are the people correct that Luno
is the better pick? I really do Luno. I also really appreciate this
report from Jeremy because Cairou has some really good instincts. He has some offensive
flashes. I think he has a really good shot. He's really adept at
getting puck on net. But as he mentions like, some of these things
might not fully translate and he might be more of just a transitional two way
guy and not nearly as exciting and fantasy. So that makes me a little
bit worried. He is a little bit smaller, too, so that's slightly
concerning. Luno has three inches on him. I think both of these teams
draft really well. So if you're trying to think which organization do I trust?
I really trust Anaheim Duck Defenseman. They have done an amazing job.
Just look at their track record of drafting defenseman. It's outstanding. Dallas also
has done pretty well recently. Obviously, they made some really great second round
picks like Henson Robertson stan Covin, So I think this also bodes well for
them, but I would take Luno. I think that he's probably less likely
to be a regular NHLO. If you were just betting on the two hundred
game idea, like who's more likely play two hundred games, I think it's
probably Kiru, But in terms of upside for fantasy, I think it's Luno,
So I would take him. I think that's what you want. You
want that twenty to thirty percent outcome That maybe is less likely, but if
it hits, you're super happy, and Kiru all the more likely might end
up just being an average roster kind of player that's not super exciting, and
so then you'd be a little bit bummed if it all worked out. And
looking at hockey prospecting between these two, Kiru is at thirteen percent chance of
being a star, Luno at twenty one percent, and as you mentioned,
they were drafted in the same year, right near each other, so no
big difference there, except Luno is a little bit younger. I also think
that the runaway for Kirou is something really important to keep in mind. As
someone who's always been bigger, older and stronger than most of his competition,
that advantage is going to disappear for him pretty soon, and it's going to
be really interesting to see how he transitions to that. If he does really
well, then great, then that concern is a layed. But it's quite
possible that he struggles a lot because he's always been bigger than everyone and he's
not going to be and he might struggle with how to adapt to that situation.
So we'll have to see. But yeah, I like Luno here.
They're both the same in terms of NHL or probability, and if you just
look at Cairou's numbers, he's got some pretty good comps. The one outlier
I would say is Andre Markov, who was a star producer, so yeah,
that would be a great outcome, But most of them are more average,
like Stefan Robida and Zach Jones, who were still waiting to see what
he looks like. He could end up being someone like Roboda, who's not
average producer. Top down hockey model pretty conservative on Cairous six percent chance of
being a star, seventy eight percent chance of being an NHL er, so
yeah, there's some more conservative there. Jessie sounds like I'm gonna skip Christian
Caiou in the last round of our prospect draft that we're in right now,
Victor, Let's move on. Who's the keep your eye on prospect keep your
eye on is Maverick Bork. We also mentioned him briefly thirtieth overall pick,
eighty five pounds center. I thought he might make the team last year since
Johnston was miners eligible and could be sent down, and I knew that Borke
could be in the HL. He was going to be a pro either way.
But it obviously didn't turn out that way. But Borke did go down
and did pretty well in the HL forty seven points in seventy games, including
four more and eight playoff games. That was pretty great. People were clamoring
for him to get an opportunity in Dallas because he was looking so well.
As Taylor mentioned, they just didn't have the space. They were healthy,
they didn't really need him to come up. But he is someone who's extremely
NHL ready, and he's got tears left on the entry level, so we
should be seeing him have a role here relatively soon. But what is your
take? What does our scouts take? Jesse on Maverick Pork. Our scout
the FHL scout on this case was William skating NHL average skating good strides with
good top speed often finds him not moving his feet enough, but this is
more in the involvement than the skating. Passing and handling can protect the puckle
and not around the board. Rate passer mainly due to his IQ and the
aforementioned IQ probably already more than NHL level ready. He can read the play
before it even develops. He can find the open space easily, uses his
stick for clever deflections and stick lift against defenders panic meter very low. Has
an idea what he wants to do and the pressure doesn't affect it. For
checking, usually not the first guy in the ford check bad habit of turning
in front of the demon instead of instigating contact defense are really smart player,
so anticipation in the D zone isn't a problem, but is involved it is.
He often stands still holding the middle of the zone but rarely jumps into
play to defend. With his anticipation in top speed, he can back check
and help defenders on most odd man rushes. Best assets hockey IQ. Biggest
concern physicality. He can easily get pushed off the puck along the board.
Not the biggest, but doesn't he's not afraid of contact. The playoff game
against Milwaukee that he watched proved that he can play those playoff games, but
will need to gain strength and wait to help him so the top tier outcome.
He could see tier two. In an ideal world, he could stay
a year or two in the HL and then take Pavelski's spot when he retires.
Strength and weakness are very similar to what Pavelski is and with his hockey,
IQ can fit in perfectly. With hints and Robertson fifty percentile medium is
scoring top nine all the tools offensively to produce at least forty to fifty points.
Maverick Bork's potential is coming out as having dropped a little bit. In
the p NHL E equivalences. Christian Fishers is number one, Nazimcadre number two,
Jason Robertson number three. The model is having a day lookat a that.
But anyway, Maverick Bork versus recent drafty Oliver More, we love our
Oliver Moore, the new Blackhawk versus the twenty twenty first rounder of the Stars,
and who are you going to take? Oliver Moore is the name in
people's minds and he comes out pretty significantly ahead of Maverick Bork seventy percent to
thirty percent. Victor, do you want Oliver Moore more than Maverick Bork?
It was right there for you, do you want Oliver more than Bork?
You didn't have to add the other more that. There you go, Victor,
Come on, jeez, yeah, no, I don't. What's interesting
about this is that more I don't think any team on draft Day had their
future five to ten years of where their position is in the lineup blocked in
more than Oliver more Right when they drafted him after Connor Berdard, it was
like, here, you're going to be our number two or three center for
the next decade, basically, that's what they said. And obviously having the
potential to play with Bidart, although I think that's a little less likely since
they played the same position. I do think that it might help. Maybe
they can on the power play together. Maybe maybe Badarta play on his wings.
Sometimes you never know it's possible. But I do think he's gonna end
up just being a second fiddle where he doesn't really get the best guys to
play with, the best opportunity all that kind of stuff. So I do
think that More is a much better real life player than he is a fantasy
asset. And I have to tell you, of all the people I talked
to scouts with in Nashville, I was the most. My mind was changed
the most on all of them. More so many of them just really didn't
see any dynamism there. The fact that his body moves faster than his brain
can keep up. And that's a big concern because he's no one doubts that
he's super fast. But if he ends up becoming the next Andrew Cogliano,
you're gonna be super disappointed and taking him really early in your draft. So
I think a lot of this. I think this poll is very slanted towards
recency bias and what everyone's seeing. And if you wanted to give Bork to
take more and kick the decision down the line a little bit, sure,
I'm fine with that. I don't think that Bork is so like amazing that
you're going to regret that massively. But I do still like Bork. I
think he's super smart. I think he has a lot of ability. I
think his two way game is a little underrated. I think he can,
as Taylor mentioned, slide in and maybe play some penalty kill and be more
of a two way guy that they need him to be, with still having
some good offensive upside and maybe getting some powerplay times. I like More.
I think if I just had to choose blindly between the two, I would
take Bork. I also like how he's very nh already. More is going
to be at least a few years, three to four years, and we'll
let to see what he develops into. I think it's very likely that all
over More is just the bottom six checking center, and that's disappointing in fantasy,
but he certainly has a really high potential. If you look at them
on the Hockey Prospecting model, More was just a little bit ahead of where
Mavick Bork was in their draft season, and Bork has he's thought up and
down, but right now he's about half of where he started. He started
thirty percent, now he's at fifteen percent. So he's been able to held
that relatively steady. More started at nearly fifty percent and of star potential and
anyways, so I do Bork a little bit better for what he's been able
to maintain. I have a feeling that More will really fall off and that
star potential will trend down pretty heavily. We'll see, though. Bork has
some pretty good comps, guys like Jeffrey Loopele is a decent one. One
of the ones I think he looks the most like is Timo Meyer. They're
also both guys from the queue, and their equivalences are pretty similar. In
fact, Bork's numbers look much better than Meyers. He started higher, he
ended higher in the model, and so IM not saying that he's going to
be better than Timo Meyer. Obviously they're different kinds of players, but I
think there's a chance that he ends up being more like Meyer than he than
one of the other comps here it's Alex Kneelander. I think he's more likely
to end up like Meyer than he is like Alex Kneelander. So I guess
there's that. The Jay Fresh card has him pretty pessimistic five percent chance of
being a star, twenty nine percent chance of being an NHLA from Maverick Pork,
so a little more pessimistic, but overall I do like him. I
really think we need to keep our eye on him, and we need to
see how things go in camp and see what opportunities he gets. Jesse.
There are more guys we could talk about, but there's no time here.
If you're a patron, you can listen to my top ten lists, which
I just did a whole bunch of on Patreon. If you're interesting doing some
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If you darn right, you come right back to the shows, Yes,
sir, a couple of things you ought to know before we leave here
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Victor Newno. Twelve VI C t O R n U n O one two
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