For your seven billion dollars. We allegod it to each other, and there
is an ace of ninety percent. They are SMEs that generate eighty percent give
me twenty minutes of your time and I, in return, would give you
information on the most relevant issues in foreign trade, tax and customs with a
human touch and make a truck, a telese magas podcast and Mexica Hello.
How about good afternoon welcome to one more edition of let' s make a
barter welcome to the graduate Alejandro Mayor, How nice to see you anyway I
look here green how welcome do we look? You see good evening well seen
how good? For today is apart from that we are closing November, for
already closing the songs of two thousand twenty- four, of two thousand twenty
- three, truth and preparing for two thousand twenty- four. And precisely
because today will tell us the prospects of international trade for two thousand twenty-
four and allow me to present his countenance. Alejandro Mayor is currently director of
drakeond Plcience for the Americas region at Flex Manufacturing and is responsible for improving the
business regulations compliance program for Canada, Mexico, Costa Rica, Brazil and with
a special focus on U S customs, which includes export control. The ISA
Trake Omplightes program with more than twenty years of experience in international regulatory compliance,
customs taxes and logistics, has worked in manufacturing companies such as Emerson, the
Electric Pistion Automotive and Ford Motor Company, foreign trade service companies and consultancy such
as japey Morgan Chase, now part of Livingstone, and logistics companies Rider Systems
and baux Global. Chenker didn' t say it right. Mainly in Mexico,
the United States and Latin America. He has collaborated with some associations of
maquiladoras and exporters INDIX as part of customs committees in Chihuahua, Nuevo leon reinosais
Ciudad Juárez. He is currently a member of the Foreign Trade Compliance Committee at
the Work COMPLICINCE Association Capítulo México. He is also a member of the Committee
on Exports and Customs Operations at the Competing Technology Industry and Association in the California
Valley, United States, at cc licon Valley. Alejandro holds a degree in
administration with a specialty in marketing from the Chihuahua Institute of Technology, a specialty
in business English from TECH Monterrey, studies in financial law from the Autonomous University
of Chihuahua and senior management from the Banking and Commercial School. Well and currently
I am also always taking advantage of my commercial is a student of the Master
' s Degree in the right to a duer and foreign trade in traiting the
College Campus Baja California. Well, well, welcome to Alejandro, you know
you have 45 minutes, fifty minutes for your presentation and then we move on
to questions and answers. Thank you very much, scholars, thank you all.
Nice to greet you and see you again today. We prepare good information
is a lot of information. We encapsulate it here to give them a perspective
of what we see based on the information we have received, what we have
to work on every day and what it has been this year, really this
year, because this one was emerging from pandemic. We came from many things
and we have some expectations and so that' s where I want to take
them good. This first of all, we all started by recapitulating how we
left the previous two or three years, not this, towards the end of
two thousand twenty, that as a result of coming out of the pharon and
the running of the one caused by the pandemic, from this Sars covid Tos,
because the economy was in a very complicated situation for all countries. Not
gross domestic product to the economy. In Latin America, about ten percent fell.
However, countries like Venezuela, as this was at least thirty percent.
There were in a number of situations where some industries practically disappeared, new industries
emerged and others re- enacted. The World Bank set up a four-
axis programme to restore the economy and restore the good of the Community. First
of all, it was to preserve life, save lives like going to the
place. Second, it was to protect the poorest and most vulnerable. It
would then begin to set up a sustainable plan based on growth and employment.
And the other is a growth in orderly reconstruction. Billions of dollars were basically
spent, since it is the health population to attend social emergencies, it was
to attend economic emergencies and start talking or reviewing long- term goals, restructuring
health systems, human capital and everything that has to do with the well-
being of the population. He really wanted to, because the task was very
complex. And that' s how we started the year two thousand twenty-
three. For the first time in a long time we did not have a
beginning of year like the one that was waiting for us, with basically complicated
situations and important challenges in all regions of the world, here in America,
because we had the United States at a major risk of falling into economic recession,
because the demand of all customers and buyers the confidence fell to very low
levels and there was neither to produce nivine economy. The Government had to help
there with many tax incentive programmes and economic incentives. There was no trust,
people didn' t want to go back to work. There were many fears,
many fears and because, as we know, the United States and Europe
are the great consumers of this planet in Latin America, because we had one
that was beginning to happen. Or we were already in fear of an ideological
crisis, a political crisis, because mainly by actors who were assuming power or
who were at the level in complicated situations, their images of very worn-
out leadership, by how the health contingency was avoided, some of them heavily
burdened towards populism, or populism both right and left, and a series of
complex situations for the region, not, as I mentioned, a fall in
the economy of almost ten percent regional and in countries up to twenty or thirty
Europe, because it is suffering the onslaughts and consequences of the war or the
invasion of Urusia, Ukraine, and this everything that was involved, because the
energy crisis was badistically. China and the United States, involved in that trade
struggle and China, also collapsing their economy, for having been in total confinement.
And there for the topic of covid Not so, this one waited for
us the year in Mexico, because, besides that, at the end of
this year, at the end of January, the government decides to take out
its master plan of collection and control focused on several things. It is not
first, as established in its strategy, and to increase and and efficiency of
the collection, to focus on the big taxpayers, to improve the area of
the coast fiscal, to review the foreign trade, towards actions of geneticization,
to focus on all the productive sectors and above all, to manage the compliance,
schemes of evasion, schemes of corruption and, basically, a strengthening and,
orenti an intensification of those of the audits. The concepts to review,
therefore, everything related to the tax on consumption, the tax, the production
of services, all activities in foreign trade, the verification of compliance with the
certification and IBAEPS and all that are balances in all the practically electronic, automotive,
electrical, entertainment, construction, trade sectors, basically all the productive areas
of the country. And there it was published and we were given the warning
that they came seriously and came with everything. A few months later and for
September and after the publication of your indicators, we can confirm that basically your
program was a success. Why. Because the collection was for control. If
you can see this graph, which is the first on the top left,
we can disturb that the collection estimates towards the end of September two thousand twenty
- three. Was it fifty- two thousand two hundred and twenty- one
million pesos in the same period? But forgive in euro June in the same
period? But two thousand nineteen the collection was twenty- four thousand four hundred
thirty- six million, and it means that in just four years the government
doubled the collection by foreign trade control acts. It is quite profitable in terms
of the collection efficiency, since of each weight invested in infrastructure, in acts
of control or in programs of control, intelligence and revisions that the SAT has
been doing has gone from seventy- three one pesos of return that they had
in two thousand nineteen to two hundred two. Indeed, the productivity indices that
have been sata have been impressive issues of regulation and efficiency, as they have
also had an efficiency year by year of more than two digits. Nothing more
in the area of foreign trade, for this, from the year twenty-
two thousand twenty- two to two thousand twenty- three there is an efficiency
of twenty- eight percent and therefore marginal thirty- nine percent. This in
the last four years, as I say to you, with one with an
evolution of more than two digits, a growth of more than two digits.
Not home visits, as well, foreign trade companies, as they also increased
by 12 percent. And the contributions to the various taxes, as they have
also not improved much in foreign trade, because there was a variation of one
point, two percent. But, because it has to do as much with
the east volumes and as with the contru as with the east. Taxes.
Not the issue of validations and certification checks of companies and bayebs, as there
have also been a total of 500 reviews here this year. Differences and margins
are also quite large cancellations, as they went from thirty cancellations of certifications to
forty- seven so far this year. That is, considering that this information
is at the end of the second quarter of the fiscal year two thousand twenty
- three and based on the SAT monitoring report, imagine therefore everything that will
change if in that trend, potentially can double the number of cancellations the number
of requirements, as it also went up from one hundred and fourteen hundred ninety
- four. Then it has been very aggressive, but also very successful.
This program, the strategy has worked wonderfully for them. It is a theme
that, year after year, has been perfecting, has been learning, has
been evolving. And so, obviously, as far as income tax is concerned,
that the largest contributor or where the most revenue comes from today, because
that is the manufacturing sector, following, therefore, commercial financial action by major
or large contributors And so, at the end of professional services, then the
answer is served them. Yes, that' s the good news for them,
for us if it' s already served you, because it' s
very likely that you' ve come to this collection strategy plan, because to
stay and control. Now, in economic terms, what has happened to the
economy, despite the challenges we faced as the good year began imports and exports.
In a publication, a report of the INEGI reports at the end of
September, it is mentioned that for the first time throughout the year we achieved
a cyprabit among exports and imports. They have a record figure of exports by
the world of the four hundred and ninety- five seven hundred and ninety-
four million dollars, against, therefore, imports of five hundred and three that
we had at the end of September. We had there is an important super
habeit and foreign direct investment. It was another document, another report that came
out by the Secretary of Economy at the end of September. They estimate that
at the end of the year we will have a figure of thirty- seven
hundred million and, according to surveys that the Bank of Mexico makes to the
private initiative, it is expected that by the same year, there will be
an increase of one billion dollars in terms of the growth of the economy,
since the International Monetary Fund made estimates at the beginning of the year, at
the end of last year, of growth for Mexico of two percent. Today,
the Bank of Mexico’ s estimates of how we’ re closing this
year are three percent. Private initiative. According to the same bank of Mexico,
three three point two percent of growth is predicted and the sa predicts that
we would close the year with a growth of three point five. Actually,
with all this activity and right now, we are going to talk about the
beginning of all this and everything that is happening today, because it was not
so bad for us, considering that we had a year full of challenges,
full of certainty and full of complex and complicated situations, because we have known
how to navigate well and consistently for the syndile estimates of inflation by the end
of the year the Bank of Mexico, because I told you that we had
an inflation rate of four one by the way. The ZAT foresees four or
five four point five percent in private sethera a four. This is the growth
estimates for next year. The International Monetary Fund gives a little more confidence and
this one foresees that we can grow forgiveness to a two point four at the
end of this year, and the Bank of Mexico makes projection based on a
two one, a little more conservative. The SAT, therefore, continues with
that, with that, this inertia, with that positivism that we can achieve
a three point five, the private initiative, because in a three point two
the inflationary indexes are equal. In general, less inflation was shown than we
had this year. So, as we have seen, we came from a
rather uncertain environment, quite complex, quite complicated. This pandemic, because it
came together, together with the new administration, the new political regime in which
we are today, there was any amount of doubt. I say despite everything,
because it was not so bad for us economically and for the country and
we started the two thousand twenty- three with certain locales and uncertainty, but
in general, the numbers are good. The performance of the economy has been
good, despite and then to say in this way, despite the fact that
this government has in its development plan the subject of international trade. You are
reviewing the document of the National Development Plan. There is once mention of the
word export and the word international trade, foreign trade. It' s not
coming, it' s not coming, it' s not considered a strategy.
And yet we are moving forward. Now what awaits us next year in
the global environment. Well, now we have a lot more variables of many
types, which is what awaits us in two thousand twenty- four. Or
first of all, because the issue of the trade conflict between the United States
and China follows one of the questions you were and change the administration of the
President, of the President of the Trump the President was going to change or
they were going to remove the sanctions regime and this tax and that to a
large extent helped us a lot and it was the beginning of the famous Neve
Shorting. President Vaya has followed that line and not only has he followed,
but he has tightened the sanctions measures on the subject of microchips, microprocessors,
the subject of this whole electronic war. I have put many sanctions and regulations
on exports, mainly to China, but it also includes other countries such as
Russia, Ukraine and so on. The issue of health contingency, for it
is something that came to stay. We do not know at what point there
may be another pandemic. There it' s gonna be dormant. We already
live that issue, we already operate it, but it' s going to
be there and it' s going to be part of our lives. The
issue of organized crime worldwide, as it is a rather growing concern. It
doesn' t matter what region of the world we' re going to.
We' re going to have concerns about terrorism issues, organized crime issues,
drug trafficking, illegal trafficking issues. Today we are going to see you a
little more agenda or list of concerns for the supply chain and now we have
another new concern. We started the year with the war Russia Ukraine. Russia
' s invasion of Ukraine seemed, as Vladimirpoting called it at the time,
to be a military exercise and because we have been going through the year and
this truth not for a few weeks ago we started with the conflicts in the
Middle East, in Israel, right now, there is an apparent truce to
return hostages and all this. However, Israel is determined to leave with everything
in this conflict, which can have a major complicated escalation. Trade sanctions are
something. It is a regime the Gemen sansonse has always existed in geopolitics and
in international economy, but they have shown great success. And so it is
precisely the European Community that launched an important sanctions package in the middle of the
year against products of Russian origin, initially. Initially because it is a package
of several these types of products oriented towards the production has ons, steel products,
metals and iron in general, putting a blockade on them how it impacts
us, because it impacts us in an impressive way to all those that we
have export or business in Europe, because the problem with the sanctions on a
global level and this type of sanctions of blockade is that we have to show
that what we sell does not have incorporated in their material processes of the country
in question and particularly of Europe, because we have a situation. Europe as
an economic community imposes sanctions, but the application of the same country by country,
customs by customs, entity by entity, changes greatly. So, if
today we have exports to Germany, but also to Portugal, but also Italy,
it is very likely that the same sanction will affect us, but the
application will be different. The requirements are different and that makes foreign trade more
complicated. On the other hand, we have the fight or war against the
front in America and a very important crisis talking about opioids, against cocaine use
in Central Europe. This has quite strong logistical implications. It has applications for
our country and for Latin America and for North Africa, complicated on security issues,
on economic issues, on issues of possible sanctions and blockades. And,
most importantly, the humanitarian health crisis that this leads to all the deaths by
people who consume these patients and everything that is around organized crime. Another no
minor issue is elections. Right now, let' s see a section of
all the countries that in two thousand twenty- four enter elections or have important
elections. Climate change issues. We' ve already seen what happened in Cancún,
a pressing thing about not being thought of as a tropical storm, about
the time it became or category five. We see drought crises. I don
' t rain where it used to rain and it rains where it rains before
it rains. We need to see how it' s coming this winter.
These are issues that will affect the world economy. The arrival of artificial intelligence,
because it is another issue of concern, because it has to be regulated
and it has to be maintained as a tool than those that the population,
that humans can use for the benefit of us and that we do not lose
control. The concern remains that the world economy will fall into recession for all
of these or for any of these different factors that come under control and say,
the humanitarian crises we have around the world. The issue of migrants was
seen reading a document and to make this presentation of the ono where it says
that around the world there are an estimated six point five million people suffering complex
and complicated situations due to immigration issues, whether they are migrating or leaving their
countries from homes because of a war conflict, as was every placer of the
migration that has occurred from the invasion Ukraine, the whole issue of the Middle
East, to escape from regimes of totalitarian governments, monarchies, lack of opportunities.
All this collapses the trade all the situation that we are dividing on the
border to the north of the country, since it is not a minor issue
like what we live in Laredo, city in Juárez, a few weeks ago
that practically stopped customs and brought important problems to the economy. And we see
that there is migration in all parts of the world and the strongest, because
obviously they are Europe because of all the migration of people that comes basically from
North Africa and Asia, China, Taiwan, East, some regions of Korea,
even the Philippines, that are looking for better opportunities in Europe and that
are collapsing or creating problems in countries, countries like Sweden, by countries like
Germany, like Spain, France, that have historically been very receptive, very
open and very humanitarian when receiving migrants, because today they are being reduced.
Besides this, there are other kinds of social problems that come, that come
together. Unfortunately, not all migration comes looking for opportunities. That' s
where we saw that they' re going to commit crime or they' re
organized crime gang parks, and the same thing happens in Mexico. A terrible
subject, very complex to solve and, unfortunately, it is almost from there,
since the beginning of humanity. So if you can see the board of
variables factors that threaten or put global trade at risk, to international trade this
year, because it really is much broader than how we started the two thousand
twenty- three and well, a not minor issue because it is the relationship
between the United States and China. There are things that confront them, but
there are things that unite them what things confront them? Well, we already
know everything starts with the issue of commercial war, by having the community and
the control of the production of chips, microchips, semiconductors, that in my
intervention a couple of months ago we talked about this, geopolitics and why all
this is important. Then it is more and nothing less than what is based
or the foundation of engineering of all that is artificial intelligence. All chips,
semiconductors, all microprocessors, all these are basically the souls and brains of computers
and supercomputers. Whoever wins this war, because he wins everything, because one
issue of confrontation is Russia' s alliance with China, not openly, but
it is well known that the Prime Minister of China does not sympathize enough with
bladiamerputing and the Taiwan conflict. Conflict Taiwan has very important nuances, because Taiwan
is a key part in the production of chips, microprocessors and semiconductors. Historically,
therefore, there has been an intention of China to annex it within its
colonies and Taiwan, for it has been resisting and to this day, as
it is a free country, and trade sanctions, however, also have things
in common. They' ve got things that bring them together. One of
these. From the last Asia Pacific Summit in California, the bases for what
is the military creation channel, all arms control, all weapons and weapons of
mass destruction were restored. All these agreements were resumed. They had broken up
a few months ago with the visit of the United States Secretariat of State to
Taiwan, precisely because the Chinese Government took it as a provocation. And so
this was taken up again. They took there for those express the regulation on
my global on the issue of artificial intelligence. A few weeks ago there was
also an international summit precisely where we talked about how to regulate and how to
control artificial intelligence by understanding it as a risk and to the population. No.
It was then the first time in many months that China and the United
States had sat down to discuss a common theme. Another, for it is
war than the front line. Over there. Many columnists say that along with
this summit that there was Asia Pacific, there was the famous Fantanyl Summit,
not this meeting that President Baden and President Himny Ping had to talk about how
to stop the flow of chemical precursors and some other elements from China to Mexico,
because let' s say, because the opposite Nihilo, many procursors are
even legal, the pharmaceutical industry is used for your medicines reach Mexico and so,
there are quite located laboratories of production of people by thread in several states
of the country. Many of these have been deactivated and basically, because it
was a call from the President of the United States to tell China we need
cooperation help, because no one cares or serves us that our people begin to
die because of aste. No, we can' t get out of control
Two main issues. Drugs, opioids, mainly in front of thread and second,
artificial intelligence, are real and strong threats to the population. And another,
because it is a talk with a view to starting to work together on
strategies for health contingencies problems. In this there is a change of 180 degrees
against the stance of President Trump. They remember when the issue of the pandemic
came up, of the health emergency for covid because what President Trump did first
was to blame China. It would appear months after we learned many things,
which we understood a lot, because there is a desire to start cooperating on
scientific collaboration and to see how we can protect ourselves. So it' s
a relationship and I put it here to illustrate it as a puzzle, because
it' s certainly very complicated and has many, many points, but Mexico
is in the middle of all this. In the fight against Nile, Mexico
is involved, because of the issue of drug trafficking, because our government has
not been efficient in controlling this situation. On the issue of the semiconductor struggle,
Mexico can also benefit and is involved. And on the subject of sanctions
as well. So, that medium, this whole thing is in Mexico.
And anything that happens between these donations, between these two leaders, affects us
or directly benefits us next point, as the elections are geopolitical in what happens
in the world. Good this year. This year there will be elections in
seventy- six countries of the world. Look at one thing if, according
to no one hundred and ninety- five countries are registered. Seventy- six
countries, as they are about thirty percent of countries. However, in the
population, it is enough for the population to vote to cast a vote.
It represents something like four billion people. Fifty- one percent of the world
' s population is going to cast a vote in this in this two thousand
twenty- four, the eight most populous countries in the world, which are
India, the United States, Indonesia, Pakistan, Brazil, Bangladesh, Russia
and Mexico, are going to enter elections, elections that can be national,
presidential, chamber, parliamentary or even local. And here in the most interesting
piece of information about me, it was the one that drew my attention.
Fifty- six percent of the domestic product, a global gross. This is
going to be at stake in an election. Look at the transcendent. What
is this for international trade purposes. Fifty more than half of the world'
s economy is going to change hands, because politics that' s not that
night of powers to see who manages best and where it' s going to
change hands for the better. They' re going to follow the same political
party, in the same ideology, in it but it' s going to
change hands. That' s super transcendent. And besides, we have four
very important points. The United States is the most powerful country on the planet
and still very little, but the strongest economy in this world is going to
change its President. And it' s super relevant because only, because there
are two, is President Baiden' s re- election and President Trump'
s re- election. And because this has created an atmosphere of polarization,
an atmosphere of struggle among the population, because they are very different political visions
and that can change the course of many things. We saw that before we
got to President Bairen, we didn' t have that crisis and that problem
we had with Russia. It is said and in another speech that I had
the comment that I read an article that President Trump' s enemy is China,
the friend President valent Es Rucia. What was the difference between these two,
that one competition is economic and the other is ideological. So for us,
for Mexico, there are also differences between one winning another Mexico, because
Mexico is the second largest economy in all of Latin America, after Brazil.
We' re America' s main trading partner. Look at the relevance of
this. America is practically going to change its President and we are among the
most important trading partners in China. For everything we have been bringing from technology
transparency, from net shopping and all this in Europe is going to change your
Parliament. They will enter elections after the pandemic, after much polarization and many
discussions on various issues, mainly what position to take in the face of Russia
' s invasion of Ukraine and what political and financial costs it has brought to
Europe, also issues of migration, of humanitarian aid to other countries, of
collaboration and, of course, of economic crisis. And so Taiwan that,
as I had told them, Taiwans key piece in the war of chips and
microchips as doctors are going to change president. And here, obviously, what
I have read is that the position or political party in power sympathizes in some
way more with the United States and, what is the position, sympathizes more
with China. Then the world is completely divided. Now we have seen recent
changes in governments, from totally contrary regimes, which we have just seen in
Argentina from a left- wing regime to an ultra- right regime, which
also happened in the Netherlands. What happens to this and why it' s
not good, regardless of whether we agree with the regimes from left to right,
however this gives politics a total turnaround. When a regime change or a
President Wilder who corresponds to a different regime than he was, he has to
take other actions to legitimize himself. Not and not necessarily. That' s
what the population needs. They are precisely in destroying what was already there and
building to prove that that is better. So it is a very complex,
very complicated environment, with all the problems on the world agenda, having the
fact of having half of the economy at stake and half of the game of
economy and power in elections, because it will be a fairly interesting and quite
complex year in some regions and, obviously, the international economy and trade and
foreign trade will obviously be affected by issues of insecurity or regional risks. The
Inter- American Committee to Fight Terrorism here in Latin America defined this year its
list of main threats and vulnerabilities. What Hike is hurting the Latin American region
on security issues and listed as follows: The vulnerability and threat to security today
is drug trafficking. Drug trafficking. I was struck by a lot of attention
and had the opportunity to attend a national security workshop that the supplies that was
in Mexico City a couple of months ago organized by the NAM, by the
SAT and by several security agencies in channels or ministers, precisely the Inter-
American Committee against Terrorism and one thing was talked about that the truth did surprise
me and said today all the agendas of all sectors of society are dictated by
organized crime and make the analogy that of some form of our lives that were
dictated by that not. Today we live in developments, in private divisions,
with security security issues. The issue of CITYPD, of certification noa, has
precisely an answer, a question of security. We don' t go out
at night. We try not to go to such or good places because of
security issues. Too bad. Unfortunately, I believe that all of us,
to some extent, have been victims of crime on any side of it and
of what we are seeing, whether they have threatened us, who have extorted
us or who have extorted us, who have robbed us. All of us
at some point in life have been victims of eloquence. And this is not
a minor issue. So, the security schedule and the supply give establishes this.
Drug trafficking and arms trafficking as the two main concerns. Then the piratery
and the crime of extortion trafficking and human trafficking. Obviously, it is a
very unfortunate or unfortunate consequence of all this migration across countries. The hijacking and
some two new, good not new, or that are gaining a lot of
ground that is to use Latin America, obviously, by all that manufacturing and
production capacity in proliferation weapons, of weapons of mass destruction through the famous goods
of dual use pieces, subassembles goods that can be used for a lathe,
can also be used for the manufacture of a cannon. What he said about
chemicals for certain medicines, which can be used as drug agents and the crime
of money laundering or money laundering or tax evasion, for the purpose of simulating
acts and money laundering. That' s the whole picture we live in today,
and that' s another variable that' s more than what to take
care of and that directly affects foreign trade. What else, then, well,
we have the near Shorting, the Ishorlings. Talked a lot. I
believe that we have all attended seminars, attended together, finished sides, because
nir Shorreng is one of the wonderful things that happen to the country. It
has been called for Mexico, as it is in the right place at the
right time. Basically it has to do with many many coming industry. I
am another new one, the Ne Shorring, who sees a lot of attention
being given in big cities in Mexico City, mainly Guarajara, Monterrey, which
has to do with the newer shorring intellectual, companies that either have operation in
Mexico, and mainly the inditovisual industry, of the creative industry, that are
establishing themselves here to develop, to hire creative engineers and that from here they
manage advertising campaigns, they manage them call centers, they manage applications and they
are looking for talents here in Mexico, they are bilingual, they have a
good level of education and they serve them. This neer shorring doesn' t
look like we have it in the maquiladoras, in the manufacturing industry, but
it' s a reality today. The challenges we face in Mexico are mainly
infrastructure, not ports, airports, roads with water activity, water for human
consumption. This is how we' re going to do it and that'
s why today was also my comment even though we didn' t have an
industrial strategy, an industry, a foreign trade strategy in Mexico, because it
' s been in the right place right now, because all that avalanche of
new businesses has arrived in the country. But the big challenge we have is
how we' re going to generate energy if we don' t have a
clean energy strategy. We don' t have blackouts. The generation of energy
through the CFE, because it is two hundred percent more expensive than what legal
certainty is being used, because real estate law, because in order to run
out of industrial parks, is scarce, the fair fiscal policy that, although
it is a great opportunity, as we were seen, so that for the
Ministry of Finance and the Government to make resources, how do we do so
that those resources are used minne so that we do not start to about controlling
the companies to such an extent that they said to leave that, in a
few words, we do not kill them in golden eggs. The education system,
what happened with the new Mexican School leaves aside many important issues, subjects
of English management, mathematics, many that eventually go to this generation that already
came from the pandemic, with some delay disconnection, because we have a risk
that a generation will lose efficiency in productivity and the issue of security. Today
we' re going to see some figures of how much security costs Mexico.
Another less issue, what makes them the least, is the labor reform in
Mexico. Why I want to talk to you about labor reform, because it
will eventually affect us in logistics and international trade. What it' s about.
Well, it all started or the one we all bring into mind,
because it' s outsourcing. It is that the spirit of having these reforms
is to ensure better conditions for the collaborators, that they are seen more by
them, that they have more space, quality time and that we have international
competitiveness, that we have more vacation days, that we have things that the
workers have internationally. And so outsourcing was one of them. Much was found
and if there were companies where employees were hired to work in the same worker,
even at the level of stress, but with less different working conditions.
There are currently some 500 initiatives in the chambers of senators' deputies in the
area of social and labour security for changes and evolution, and not to treasure
a data for almost fifty years that were not touched and that there were reforms
to labor and social security rotation in Mexico. What are the four main ones
that are to come or that are already almost a fact, since the main
one in which the most is spoken is the reduction of the working time.
Much is said that Mexico is the country according to the or of the bass
that works the most hours, but it is not the most, the most
eastern, the most efficient. So according to these data and estimates between the
AUTE and the International Fund of Manners, the countries that have the best productivity
have to work at an average of thirty- six to forty hours a week.
It means that we have to make a lot of progress in working culture.
It doesn' t mean that working more is working better. This one
I think is excellent, which is the older adults. This initiative is focused
on ensuring that all companies in Mexico have or ensure that at least five percent
of their workforce includes adults over 60 years of age. That is, this
is a wonder of dignified vacation, as they are the increase of the holiday
premium and the number of ten or holidays. The worthy aguinaldo that goes from
fifteen days to thirty days, that this is a problem on several sides.
Practically who would gain more x the government, because it increases payroll control,
the employer has to pay more and the employee, of course, its deduction
in greater. There are not the biggest companies today do not offer an aguinaldo
of more than fifteen days, twenty days, thirty days. But only you
get a cup or a 15- day check on this one if you get
30 days of leginaldo, especially if you' re going to be taxed.
Teleworking, as it is another that involves additional benefits for the employer in matters
of Internet payment. Encina, because this is important because eventually our operations are
going to be more expensive. Eventually one day our anal people will come to
tell us I can no longer work six days a week. So I have
to work five and the sixth we have to pay for extra time because it
' s going to load it to you and the carrier is going to tell
us that it' s going to be more expensive Or, because it'
s not going to be able to help us on Saturdays anymore, because it
' s going to close our virtual supplier is our supplier in Mexico. He
' s gonna tell us two things. Either I don' t produce you
that day or it' s going to be more expensive for you to produce
all this Where it' s going to lead to an increase in inflation.
So what we should be watching right now from foreign trade all these areas,
see what' s going on, because eventually it' s going to affect
us. Just as outsourcing impacted all those companies, especially the large manufacturing companies
that always had inside the Banal agency and the staff, doing the experiments inside
the Fred Foster, carrying the logistics, inside the storekeeper, but they didn
' t pay for it, but the company paid for it. And now
he had to check that payroll. Well, and all this, because it
' s still going to impact. Not now. With all this and considering
that we are facing an end to Sexenius, there may be an economic crisis
at the end of Sexenius. We who are of a certain age, about
and we grew up in the eighties in the seventies. Thus, we grew
up in a shadow of a hegemonic party, which was the PRI with a
centralism and with and with one and with one and with a very similar form
to how power is exercised today. And so it was, it was all
known that every one who changed a President, because it was a big crisis.
The dollar was skyrocketing, food was scarce, inflation would be up and
this, and so stories of terror, the crisis the energy of the seventies,
with President López Portillo, this with Miguel de Madrid of nine hundred eighty
- two. At the same time, the change from the President of Salinas
de Gortari to the President of Doctor Cedillo, where, therefore, the economy
collapsed and since the change of President Fox to Acá, we had been living
a relative calm. Then all these things lead us to think. Something can
happen, because there is no risk. Fortunately, I think I was listening
there, seeing myself documenting, because there are no elements to consider an economic
crisis, because there is confidence in the country, therefore for the productive sectors
of our country and for its foreign investors. The theme of New Schoring is
a reality and we live a historic opportunity. However, there are important points
of concern for Canal two thousand twenty- four. He or the good one,
because the next president, because Samuel snuck in there. But basically whoever
takes over the presidency is going to have very important challenges. The number one
is the increase in historical debt according to data from the Bank of Mexico and
the SAT at the end of September. The estimates are that we close the
fiscal year with a debt between pull and a net debt of fourteen billion pesos,
which represents forty- five point, five percent of pil debt contracted to
pay the current expenditure. Because this debt, because it' s from the
bad debt we tell you, not that what it means, it means that
bringing a little bit of our personal economy, that we spend ourselves or that
we have committed debts, half of our income, half of our salary,
half of our fortnights of our weeks is already to pay debts. And this
means it' s bad, toxic debt, contracted for current spending. So
here to talk about buying the credit card in which the cinema already the restaurant
buys the errand to buy clothes. There really wasn' t a debt for
infrastructure. The only works that are coming mesity, because it is a flagship
works of the President, two mouths, the refinery between Valle and the airport
ifa that, certainly because if they are going to give any benefit to the
economic population, but they are transectional works that probably do not see its benefits
in six more years. No, then we' re engaged right now.
What we haven' t generated and that' s no more debt. It
lacks all the compound interest that this debt represents. It' s hey.
If I had right now, those fourteen billion pesos, I pay the debt
and I stay with Sars, as it would be going back to the subject
of our house, our credit card. But since we don' t have
it right now, that capacity we have to make payments and bo and there
are debt bonds that have been issued with the International Human Monetary Fund works with
all these, what is the payment plus the interest. Then, then,
it is already the practice. Maybe it' s not forty- five,
maybe it' s fifty- two or sixty or seventy percent of the gross
domestic product. If to that we add that today we do not have organisms
that venerate Mexico. At this historic moment, we do not have a pro
- Mexico. The Ministry of the Economy does not have a Under- Secretary
for the Promotion of the State. Basically the promoters of Mexico have been us,
in our companies, in our companies. What we have seen has been
the private sector and it has been by chance. It is indeed a rather
important risk not for those who come to the presidency, because a country is
going to be involved. Few words. The issue of pensions is another issue.
Also currently estimates are that the cost of pensions for the twenty- four
people who are already reaching the retirement age, this represents six percent of GDP.
Now it makes a little more sense of that reform than of workers inserting
into their workforce people of more than a hundred years old. There' s
no money to pay for that. All and above all those of us who
live in the lims law of seventy- three and the ninety that we have
our capacity and our complete liquidation, we are going to place a very complicated
burden on the Government. It costs insecurity, as you say right now.
Insecurity is something that is not alone, it is out of control and in
each and every region of this country where we see there is a security issue
According to this, the survey of security issues of INEGIP at the end of
September of two thousand dietitrés is predicted that in the end the exercise, because
it will reach two percent pir is very high. I mean, imagine.
We already have the demanded fifty percent, fifty percent of the income to pay
more debt, six percent of the GDP plus, another two percent of insecurity.
But whatever comes and we don' t get a pandemic that doesn'
t reach us. Another other, this other, another, another subject like
that of Acapulco, etc, Well, because we' re really going to
be in a very complicated and very complex situation. Not what we have to
do, because we face regulations, because it is a graph of how we
can react. It' s pending. We, as executives or people in
the foreign trade of customs, are obliged to inform ourselves and to study,
already, since back to what time I am customs and I am my process,
I am logistic and I find nothing to carry and bring things and I
leave them customs. I' m a sledgehammer. To me bring and as
today we are obliged to have access to this information in what is happening in
the world. It' s definitely going to affect us, it' s
going to affect our cubicles, our work. What we have to do a
map yes conceptual is, therefore, to analyze the changes that, just as
they come today, there is information everywhere, there are groups of Whatsapp up
in Tiktok, there are those who explain the resolutions, of the Miscellaneous,
of the rules. What is to come, are the anticipated ones and then
you have to interpret those changes to see how, based on our professional activity,
the business that we work in, what we do affects us or benefits
us. Be a benefit, a tax incentive, or be a risk or
a point of concern, as was the master of oversight at the time.
Who is we have at hand our savannah agents, who is the foreign trade
advisor. By excellence, there are external consultants offices dedicated to this. There
' s no bad external consultant. It all depends on how much openness we
have to teach him our operation and guide him so that he can help us
better. There are all chambers and associations and suppliers of compliance systems. Once
we have this is, define the action plan, I have a problem,
I have a contingency, calculate risks, calculate the golden opportunity and then go
sit down with the management of our organizations, with the managers and tell them
what we have to do. We have to come back a very quick thing
for days. The areas will be considered as a priority in the twenty-
four, as they are tariff classification. Why classifications come out was like number
one. The system of sanctions on us in the world of foreign trade means
that the failure of the clergy, the sanctions on steel and metals are all
contained in Chapter seventy- three seventy- four to seventy- eight of the
customs law. It' s over 1, 500 items. Then we have
to see our merchandise catalogue. If we fall into one of those reading the
regulation and if we embark that country or if we bring in that country,
see what we have to do. Then we saw it in Mexico, the
changes in tariff fractions to steel to hydrocarbons plus the ones that come are going
to keep coming the Escellaria frisone. What we have to do to ensure that
our birth classifications are correct and well determined. The determination of country of origin,
as it goes hand in hand with the sanctions regime, because it punishes
the country of origin or the country of destination. Don' t sell it
to countries related to China, don' t sell it to countries related to
Russia, don' t sell it to entities related to drug trafficking, to
organized crime. Check this one' s contracts. Now the issue of forced
labour is also going to come to us, to change everything, to see
there are specific places in the world that are identified by the UN and by
all and by the governments, like where there are issues of child exploitation,
of forced labor and that, basically, they are punishing us for buying it.
Hence, and like everything else, the problem with sanctions regimes as before.
It has to do with one thing, to prove the origin, to
prove that I am transforming, to prove that I am not bringing it here,
to prove that it does not contain matters of it, the truth,
the customs valuation, because it is this one in matters, because obviously,
tax payment has a lot to do with it. How much toy with ran
how much I' m bringing in, what is my document I' m
using to import, what I' m telling customs, how much the goods
are worth, because that' s the basis on which I' m paying
in taxes. However, if I' m buying, if I' m
bringing consigned, if I' m being commissioned to carry out a service job,
I have to know what the value is and the owner of goods.
How he did to assign the value of goods the issue of understatement, because
also of military responsibilities, the incremental costs and compliance of the IMIX, since
everything we have of counter- food, control of assets, certification of IVAFS,
for the topic precisely of this program, this of strategic plan, of
control and the safety in logistic meat, why, for the concerns of international
security. So, of all this that we saw and talked about and that
we learned today, because how do I do it tomorrow that I did it
again in my work, in my cubicle, in my office, that I
talk my donal agent. These are the issues on which we recommend, focus,
put controls, because everything that is happening in the world will eventually affect
us. Well, we' re way out of time. I' m
offering you an apology It' s five minutes. He' ll only do
too much information, and I hope you' ll have something left in your
good fortune. Follow me in stellar networks, your orders for any doubt,
comment or input. Thank you very much, Alejandro. I think a very
interesting topic to reflect on for everyone. Here came two comments, some of
which I saw resolved. However, I don' t know if you want
to comment. Question, Juan, what did you think of the elections of
the next two thousand twenty- four will affect foreign trade. Yes, definitely,
it can definitely affect us and a lot or maybe the stop won'
t go out to affect us. It' s just going to change,
it' s going to change no and we have to, as I was
saying, we have to study a lot to know what things were like in
the past and we have to get a lot of information to know what'
s coming and be prepared. That' s what can happen today. If
you tell us in two thousand fifteen everything that was going to happen with the
arrival of President Trump, remember what we thought President Trump is going to cancel
the Free Trade Agreement, he' s going to put a wall on what
happened two years later and put the trade war with China and help us wonder.
Then you have to be prepared to read very well the things that happen.
It is and it also tells us here that what is your opinion about
the forty- hour day and that if it will be adopted in twenty-
four or up to twenty- five, it is just in plenary. This
is about to pass the senators through the times It' s hardly going to
stay in this period. It' s probably moving until the April- east
period. I personally think that, as it is an election year and as
it has to do for the well- being of the workers, it will
go forward. I think so. The subject is like there. Not a
document I was reading mentioned Chile, which in Chile did the same thing to
reduce working hours. I think they and even fifty to forty hours, but
they did it staggered, they chose the industries, they chose the days,
they worked schemes even of mixed ontarios and in a period of about ten twelve
months they were, they were turning it around. That' s the thing,
but I think it will, will it? He' s gonna go,
' cause they' re gonna see each other. All these changes are
actually very good and we need them to be more competitive. The thing is,
they' re gonna cost a lot of money. So, this,
that' s the one where everything' s gonna get stuck. Yeah,
yeah, yeah, yeah, there' s gonna be a big burden for
a lot of companies, right, and they' re gonna forgive, sorry.
No. No, I don' t. He said that for many
companies who knows if they can bear that burden. No yes, and it
' s an effect I don' t, because the sure thing is that
you don' t keep that burden, because they transfer it to the service
thing, to the corsus, the product. There' s more money,
but the prices go away, there' s more inflation, and then we
don' t want it, because then the inflation, because it beats the
credit and beats it a lot like things and then after that, it'
s good. There are many congratulations on important issues and about being alert,
right well, and because right now I open the microphone for our panelists ahead,
I think the engineer opened the microphone. First thanks, thanks, Toña,
hey Alex. What data you' ve given us, what hard data
you' ve given us and what interesting things we' ve put together.
I say and to finish plasmas, the three readers of the harmonized system classification,
valuation, origin. These are things that we need to be very conscious,
very present. If you heard, since the eighth amendment doesn' t
come in two thousand twenty- seven. I know, then, that a
year is coming to two thousand and twenty- eight. Yes, yes,
exactly, and and it' s a very important point, because the world
customs regression. You' re also thinking about what' s going on with
the humorous system, what' s going to happen with the whole rate and
all this, and there' s really hard data on all this stuff you
' re giving us. Not that of the debts of fourteen billion pesos,
son, what a hard debt we have and what important issues we have to
think about. In two thousand twenty- four we come very strong. We
' re going to close this year too with a lot of trouble and all
that, and so congratulations, you gave us a great, a great talk,
a plant is very interesting, very important and worthy to think about.
Thank you, Alex, a hug is mast. Thank you, thank you
for the word forward view, thank you engineer, thank you, repeat,
it is my extraordinary alex of time you have given us the whole year that
is coming to an end. There are really two visions here. One of
those who generate wealth, or we know, generate a weight, and the
other people who generate laws without knowing how that resource is generated. That'
s always going to be the conflict, not right now, but they don
' t call it liberals or conservatives, and so on. But the most
dangerous thing is to be making laws and not knowing the productivity that we have
as a country. And that is something very vital Albricias and I sometimes become
an entrepreneur, my entrepreneur, yes, it is hard the burden to keep
us in force. We' ve done well, we' re here,
but there are times when it' s just the pure payments, payments that
have to be made. However, I also agree with Enrique. I was
shocked right now by the debt we have of fourteen billion pesos we go from
in this matches that we had a manageable balance. It has increased and therefore,
irresponsibly because you in your exhibition, you commented that well, because we
have not realized therefore the salaries and salaries that have to be paid in the
aspect of works of thousands and millions of pesos that we are already no longer
at any end in clean energies and we continue to insist on making one,
one, in two mouths, one of oil to be the gasolines. Yeah,
so, yes, it' s worrying and it' s spent a
lot. Well, but congratulations, Alex Thank you, thank you, thank
you very much, thank you for your participation and your data. That'
s very kind of you. Thanks from Auntie. Greetings, my Henry.
Thank you very much. View, well, then we will proceed to the
delivery of the recognition for Alejandro tele se Magazim and let' s make a
barter grant the present recognition to the graduate Alejandro Mayor for bartering in the virtual
conversation with the topic perspectives of international trade two thousand twenty- four. The
twenty- ninth day of November of two thousand and twenty- three is signed
by our President, Dr Octavio de la Torre and teacher Daniela. We'
ve reached the end of today' s barge. Thank you so much for
joining us. Let' s make a barter v asom an FTA event.
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