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Teamhouse. Hello, everyone, welcome to

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another episode of I so On,
and I'm going to announce my interrot and

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the host introduction first because we never
rehearsed this so and then we'll get around

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to the guest I'm Andy Milburn,
I'm Jason Lyons, I'm Dimitrik on Tacos

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and today as a guest, we
have Alex Pleisis. He's a non resident

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Senior Fellow with the Atlantic Council.
Very interestingly, I think, I mean,

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his whole resume is interesting, but
of particular interest especially to our listeners.

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He's just taken over the the Terrorism
Studies Group. Is that right?

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Alex at the Atlantic Council. You
know, he's a and perhaps unlike some

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of the think tank think tank crowd, Alex has plenty of practical experience.

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He was Chief of Special Programs in
the under the Assistant Secretary of Defense for

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special operations some low intensity conflict.
It's so much easier saying, ASD sold

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that I get beating. Anyway,
kudos to you. That's one part of

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the Pentagon that I think, honestly, any anyone in soft probably does want

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to work, even if they don't
know it. Alex, I am turning

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it absolutely over to you and to
guide the discussion as you wish, topics

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of your choice. It is.
Thank you. That was a kind of

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introduction. I'd like to think of
myself as like the forest gump of the

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g Wat era, stumbling my way
through historical events. I have no business

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being involved with that's no way all
like Iraq, Yes, exactly, yeah,

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along those lines I mean of late. Yes, the terrorism studies program

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of the Council has been revamped obviously
in light of what has transpired, as

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we all know from guests and colleagues
in the community. You know, after

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the airport fell on Cobble, the
agency was basically told to take the Afghan

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maps off the wall. We've all
moved on. We're going to you know,

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pivot to the Pacific was the famous
phrase. We're going to look to

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the threats coming you know from China
and East China see and then South Chines

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see. And then all of a
sudden the terrorist said, hey, you

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may be done with us, but
we're not done with you globally and regionally.

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Right. So we spent better part
of twenty years going out after Sunni

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Cellfist. You know, Jihadis groups
across the region, you know, from

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Alkaita to Isis et cetera, who
were seen as a geostrategic threat, particularly

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with the existence of the caliphate under
Isis that you know, then dissipated due

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to combat operations. But then we've
seen a not a resurgence, but one

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that's been there the entire time under
you know, boiling right there under the

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surface, the boiling frog syndrome,
which was really the threat posed by Iranian

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state sponsorship of terrorist groups in the
region. And for the purpose of discussion,

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right the definition for terrorism we use
is politically motivated violence against civilians.

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So somebody is using acts of violence
against those civilians and the hopes that they

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can get them either as voters or
a you know, dictatorial regime, to

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get the regime itself to change its
behavior in line with whatever the group wants,

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is what we're talking about. So
for Iran in many cases that you

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know happens to be in Israel or
in other places, or against US forces

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to try to get us out of
the region where they don't want US based

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sort of nearby. So that's been
a focus on the counter terrorism side,

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and obviously immediate short term then being
Amas, which we you know kind of

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talked about and October seventh, so
my role at the Council in addition to

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the terrorism program, so part of
the N seven initiative or the Negev Forum,

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which is where the Abraham Accords were
sort of born, and so that's

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building on the work that the Abraham
Accords hadn't done. I was in Abu

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Dhabi last March, Bahrain last July, and I was supposed to land in

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Israel and October seventh, actually the
rest of my teammates in landed from the

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Council. We had about thirty members
of Congress that were that were coming,

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many of them we saw on television
immediately afterwards saying I was in Israel,

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and I was there under rocket attack, and they were there for our conference.

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What they were doing there, Ministers
from a number of Arab countries were

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coming, Billionaire financiers from New York
and from the States were coming in to

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talk about financial investment in the in
the region, improve the lives about Israelis

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and Palestinians. And then October seventh
happens and twelve hundred people are slaughtered,

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and probably the most sim the most
heinous fashion of scene. We'll kind of

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get into all that a little bit. I took two hundred hostages at that

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point, and I have to tell
you, having done began analysis on the

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fly at the Pentagon and senior leader
spaces and then you know, through the

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course of my career and sigh out
here or there, seeing the ISIS videos,

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seeing the al Qaeda videos, they
were very business like, for lack

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of a better term, black shadowy
figures. Remember you know Gihati John who

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was part of the Beatles, you
know, with the ISIS videos and some

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of the others, they would make
very serious policy statements, right. Their

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acts of violence were grotesque and what
they were doing to intimidate people, but

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it was policy base, right.
We want X, you know, we

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want you out of our lands.
The caliphit's going to take over. And

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even though we don't agree with what
they're doing or how they're pursuing it,

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it was seen as business with serious
business in the videos and meant to intimidate.

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I went to the Atlanta Council because
the Israeli Embassy provided the forty seven

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minutes of footage of the attack that
transpired in October seventh, and I have

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to tell you it was among the
most heinous things I've seen, not only

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for what had transpired and the callous
disregard for human life, even you know,

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women and children, but the maniacal
laughter. The phone calls back to

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mom and dad bragging about the fact
that they had just I just killed Jews.

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Mom, your son's a hero,
and you know, high fiving each

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other, giggling about what was going
on as they're you know, killing people

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in some pretty awful torturing folks.
Basically, there's no way to describe it.

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In some pretty awful ways. It
was almost indescribable. And if you

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think about the problem that we had
there, it was twenty five hundred people

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across the border from Gaza into Israel
to contemit these atrocities. This was not

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a cell of five to ten deranged
individual it's even a couple of cells.

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Twenty five hundred is a massive sample
size the population there that came across the

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border an unfortunately indicative of the indoctrination
into the terrorist ideology that Hamas has pursued

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for quite some time, and it
resulted in the deaths of the twelve hundred

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people in Israel. And what I
also, you know, you derived from

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looking at the situation is yeah,
I mean dealt with hostage cases. As

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part of my that was the other
part of my portfolio at Salek was hostage

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rescue. I was on the twenty
fifteen hostage Policy Review, where we created

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the Hostage Recovery Fusion Cell, We
created the Special Envoy for Hostage Affairs,

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which is currently Rodner Carston's his position. And you know, we wrote the

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Presidential Executive Order and the strategy for
responding to hostage events. Still deal with

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hostage cases, still helping hostage cases
in Afghanistan, I few other places around

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the world. And what the situation
told me when looking at is a couple

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of things off the bat. First
of all, there were some debates about

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whether or not Hamas truly knew the
scope of what it was doing. The

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hostages weren't taken from one kibbutz or
one small village. They were taken from

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all across southern Israel, from a
number of different cells that were operating right

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out of twenty five hundred people.
So it was clear from the onset that

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they were given instructions to take hostages
and bring them back to Gaza. And

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why would you take hostages in that
number. The only reason you would need

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that many hostages to bring back to
Gaza is if you were aware that what

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you were planning to do was so
incredibly big and spectacular. For lack of

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a better term, in terms of
the attack itself and the carnage it was

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going to cause. That you need
to mitigate the gap and military capabilities between

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the IDF and whatever Hamas has,
between rockets and fighters on the ground,

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and the way you do that is
by hostages. That's your negotiating chip,

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bargaining chip. Israel has to participated
in lopsided deals for years, releasing thousands

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of people and even you know,
murderers for dead bodies of Israeli citizens to

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bring them back. So Hamas knew
what it was doing and what it created

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is this nightmare scenario where you have
essentially Gaza eight by twenty five miles controlled

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by a terrorist organization that's effectively walled
and blocked off. It's often described as

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the most densely populator, and it's
not the most densely popular. I don't

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even think it makes top twenty five. But it is extremely densely populated.

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Out of two million people in that
small space, with an underground tunnel network

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five hundred kilometers or so, if
not more. It's basically a giant ant

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farm. I mean there's stuff all
over the place, and so you've got

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this densely populated environment that is non
permissive. With a hostile population there towards

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the Israelis, and with two hundred
hostages dispersed across a tunnel system and in

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buildings across the area, it makes
trying to conduct simultaneous hostage rescue operations virtually

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impossible. You've got small arms fired
RPGs and potentially shoulder fired missiles, manpads,

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et cetera. Make helicopter missions,
you know, and they're extremely difficult,

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right for any aerial insertion, you
know, trying to come over the

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beach is obviously difficult too, is
you're going to be seen coming, So

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you're really basically limited. That point
to a large scale ground incursion that we

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saw along with special operations for US
is trying to conduct limited raids and so

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you're really it puts you in a
shitty position, for lack of a better

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term, it really forces you into
a primary stance of negotiation to try to

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get the hostages released, because there
really isn't a good viable means. So

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Hamas really set themselves up in this
case to get what it is that they

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were looking for. Now, whether
they're going to get it, it doesn't

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look like that's going to happen here
at the end based on negotiations. But

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this was well planned, this was
well thought out. Yes, certainly,

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I mean no argument there. I
think you know, that's the you know,

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having spent a good deal of time
in this round the last six months

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up set on this program. The
sad thing is, you know, as

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as someone who really loves this,
is that I don't think that country will

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ever be the same again. I
can't. I just can't see it.

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I don't think that people outside the
country understand that. I think you know,

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and and I think at the same
time and this this may not be

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neither there here nor there, but
it's but I think it's an interesting aspect

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and I think I'm not sure what
the comment is on this, but you

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know, as masks whether or not, you know, as they try and

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distance themselves from some of the worst
random atrocities and yet claim clean you know,

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responsibility for others, you know,
it almost becomes irrelevant. But an

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interesting point I think is and worth
pointing out with no agenda, is that

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a lot of those people who got
out of regards who were common criminals or

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opportunists, sadly, and that is
what now the idea I thinks. I

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mean, I'm sorry the you know, the IDF thinks occurred in some of

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the kabutz is that weren't on the
map but were nevertheless act right, you

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hear the same thing, and I
think, you know, do you right

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your point? If you look at
the polling data coming out, they're ninety

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percent support for the war on Gaza, ninety percent for you know, eradicating

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Hamas for lack of a better term, fifteen percent you know, support for

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Prime Minister Notatan Yahoo, which is
which you think is rare, right,

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I mean, after nine eleven we
saw rally around the frost. That's not

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high, you know what I mean? Yeah, no, I mean having

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been there on surprise that it's not
hi. I didn't need anyone who liked

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them, you know, that's what
they're furious. But like you said,

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but but yeah, they've rallied.
That's absolutely the point. So so I

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wanted to now kind of jump forward
in and I know, you know,

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every time, no one can talk
about this discussion without getting angry calls,

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you know, and so on our
listeners know hopefully hey listen, this is

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we're going to go down this pop
because we need to just arguing either way

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as we get you know, fast
forward to where we are now, right

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and I believe and tell me if
this is you know, incorrect summer and

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then and then absolutely want to hear
your filth. So so you know,

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the things over the weekend, especially
in the Arab media, there was there

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were kind of optimistic rumors that her
Maas was going to and accept the latest

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proposal, which happened to be an
Egyptian broken one. Right and then and

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then sometimes Sunday morning, Israeli time, har Maas targeted an assembly era in

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there coron Chuan killing or Israeli soldiers
wounding, wounding nine right after that.

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So so that that in in in
you know, as far as the Israelis

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were concerned, Hey, that's all
bets are off right, sure, and

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that's it went into session and not
then that said, I'm sorry. The

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cabinet went into session, came out
by unanus unanimous vote, decided to go

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ahead with invasion of Rafa, her
mask her Mass's claim at the time,

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so us, hey, this was
self defense, so we're going to take

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Rafa anyway. That's why they were
there in that assembly area and the whole

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useless borrow of arguments. But as
the as the you know, kind of

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the initial shaping action start in a
phase that was estimated to take two to

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three weeks, you know, evacuation
of personnel, insertion of special operations forces,

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gathering an assembly, as all those
steps are taking place. Arguably William

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Burns was able to say, hey, look all this stuff is happening,

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you know, kind of the veiled
stake behind the carrot, and the carrot

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being potentially survival of Hamas leadership.
And that's and at that point Hamas counterproposed,

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but it wasn't the Egyptian proposal.
It had changed in at least two

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points that the Israelis regard is critical. And that's kind of where we are

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now agree. And I think,
you know, as you mentioned for listeners

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who are in there, you know, history starts for people on either side

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of this argument, either after Palestinians
or after Jews were killed and people argue

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to the death that were Who's if
you got the moral right here we're largely

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talking about here is the military tactics
and situation that on the ground that's going

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on. You can draw your own
conclusion about who's correct and who's not.

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And that's not. I'm not really
interested in getting into the moral rights and

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wrongs here so much as like we're
having a discussion about what's happening from a

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tactical perspective, from a strategy perspective, what's going well and what's not,

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and we and we talk, you
know, we talk about politics here too.

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Yeah, absolutely, I think,
you know, I think our listeners

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count on us to be as bipartisant
as we can, or at least if

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we present one view, can we
argue back. And we've got pretty good

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at that. That's fair. Yeah, feel free to express your views at

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all. Okay, I I think
so. I wrote on October eleventh that

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wrote a piece for the Atlantic Council
basically detailing exactly what's happening now, the

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military strategy, how it was going
to work. So from the beginning Prime

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Minister Nataniell who laid out what he
declared was his goal for the operation,

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which would be the demilitarization of a
moss Right. We know from twenty years

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of counter terrorism ourselves, you can't
kill an ideology with bombs and bullets.

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That's simply not going to fly,
right, But you can degrade and disrupt

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a terrorist organization such as isis right
in the caliphate or so called caliphate to

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the point where it's rendered and effective
and and operate the way that it was.

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But in order to do that in
an area that they control, you

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basically have to conduct a giant cort
on in search of Gaza, which are

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then going to break up into chunks, which is what they did. So

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if you you know, at the
beginning of the operation, they basically,

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I mean and as your well ware, you know, midway down Gaza is

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Wadi Gaza, like a wadi that
kind of goes across the little valley,

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and they declared that to be the
basically the line of advance, and they

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told everybody in northern Gaza to get
south, so they included the ect evacuation

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of Gaza city. Roughly a million
residents then fled south and Israel began conducting

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clearing operations inside the city. Hamas
remnants were they are the battalions, and

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they fought on. Hundreds of Israeli
soldiers have been killed. This was a

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real battle that's been going on.
You know, Hamas did stay and fight

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and the goal is to get the
strategic weapons and the fighters. But when

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I looked at the forty seven minute
video of what transpired that day, and

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that's again where some of the analysis
comes from. There were no strategic weapons.

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There weren't even really many technicals being
used. This was AK forty seven's

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pistols, knives and grenades, That's
what I saw. So the fighters themselves

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are what conducted that attack, that
threat to Israel, right, So for

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them it's the act of battalions on
the ground. So if your goal is

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to demilitarize Hamas and also ensure that
that type of attack doesn't happen again,

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and I don't mean from a radicalization
perspective, the people turn around say,

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well, gright, you're creating another
generation of radicalized individuals because they've been now

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subjected to total lost their families,
their homes, their livelihoods, and this

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is just going to be a perpetual
cycle of violence. That is one counter

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argument to go from a strictly military
perspective and achieving the objectives that were laid

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out in front of them. You
know, the only way you can really

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do that is you got to go
in and search, and so that would

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include remaining areas or raw fund everywhere
else. Because the second you pull out

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and all of a sudden, IMS
still has strategic stockpiles of rockets and everything

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else, and rockets are flying across
the border. The chiefs, the government

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who is responsible for ensuring this type
of tactics to happen again, look like

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utter in complete clowns. So that's
the political problem, never mind the actual

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military problem itself of not getting the
remaining fighters and the stockbillus. You're never

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going to get every AK forty seven, You're not going to get every single

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fighter. But again, it's about
disruption and degrading the institution to where it

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doesn't function, and you've got to
deal with the remnants sort of afterwards.

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And so the problem is when everybody
pushed south again. If you look at

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if you picture Gaza as a giant
rectangle for lack of a better term,

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and starting up the top and moving
south, everybody's essentially wedged between what's a

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wall on the right hand side or
the east side, and on the north

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side south side is a wall with
Egypt, and on the left is the

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Mediterranean Sea that Egypt that Israel has
basically a naval blockade. So it's a

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giant rectangle where everybody's stuck in the
center, and so everybody's now pushed south

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close to that wall with Egypt nearly
two million people. Infrastructure has been destroyed,

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so difficult in many cass sewage,
water are those types of things.

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Humanitarian conditions are extremely difficult on the
ground. I mean the Sidney McCain ahead

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the World Food Program has talked about
famine and other issues that are on the

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ground there which are very real.
I mean, we've been running rescue operations

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in Gaza since October, helping to
evacuate American citizens and allies, and it's

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the same thing you get from our
folks on the ground. You know,

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in terms of the conditions, they're
right. So the question then became,

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what the hell do you do with
the two million people trapped south and around

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the wall, and the Israeli answer
as well, we're gonna have to shuffle

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them around the battlespace literally like in
a circle, and as we move in,

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we'll push them one way or the
other and try to send people back

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north, although you don't want people
behind your rear flank. And so it

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became this, my god, this
humanitarian disaster. You know, we need

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to stop this operation. They're going
to have to go into rawling. You

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cannot achieve the military objective of demilitarization
and leave strategic areas where you've got known

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Hamas fighters and stockpiles of weapons intact
and expect to achieve your objective. It's

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simply not going to happen. So
when everybody's arging against them, looking from

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a military and security perspective, they're
going to have to do it. And

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then Hamas is like, well,
you know, we don't want this,

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We want to be fairly troops with
it all from Gaza. Yeah, you

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also opened a giant hole in the
fence and opened up hell for lack of

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a better term, with twenty five
hundred people coming across the border and slaughtering

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twelve hundred Israelis and probably the most
heinous way they've seen and relative decides their

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population. It's a very significant number
of people and there was not. And

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again the arguments are, well,
you know, we've been trapped like you

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know, caged animals in Gaza,
and this is you know, resistance fighting

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back against an oppressor who is unoccupied
territory and they have no business being here

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in the first place. The justifications
will go back and forth in terms of

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whether people should or shouldn't, whether
you believe it was the right thing to

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do or not. Five hundred people
across the border. They blew a hole

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and a billion dollar front system that
was out there, and they murdered twelve

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hundred people. Alex can I can
I just not, you know, certainly

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not argue that point. But to
talk about U the you know, the

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the operation itself, and and I
think, you know, I think it's

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fair to for me to share I
think at this stage a pessimistic assumption about

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the hostages. And sure it's not
easy for me to do that. I

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actually know you know, one of
the hostage families and have met, you

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know, But I I just it's
got to always be front and center as

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a strategic goal for the Israelis.
I understand that. But in practical terms,

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although it's importance remains great, I
think in practical terms, we you

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know, we we're looking at a
very long shot, right, you know,

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for for even getting the forty LT. But that's anyway, that's that's

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kind of that's something we can can
say here clear ye. But I understand

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in Israel, no, you know, that's a you cannot talk about that.

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But but from the from the perspective
military operation. Then as far as

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goals, as far as objectives,
you know, it's almost an opening.

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And it's not a secret. I
mean, there have been rumblings among IDF

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leadership about kind of lack of strategic
objectives. They have no problem. In

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fact, they insist that many of
them, I mean that Rafa has to

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be cleared. But they they're needing
kind of just like they're needing some kind

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of overall goal. Who takes over
from her mask? That's that's number one.

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How do you see that evolving?
Number two? Is you mentioned and

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we're all aware of this problem to
include of course the Israelis, the you

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know this whole clear and hold.
They just don't have demand power to hold

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Gaza. They haven't made an attempt
to do so. That isn't for tapical

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reasons. It's simply because they can't
keep three hundred thousand reservers tied down.

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So they've had to move out of
areas of Gaza. They have tried to,

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they have retained, you know,
they've kept solve in that they've they've

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got far better visibility of what goes
on. But the plain fact is,

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as they know at Hamas's backfield those
areas and retaken control, and that is

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always going to be a problem.
So those kind of questions are linked how

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how to solve that problem? Never
mind, you know, let's not even

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worry about well, let's not talk
about the hostages at this point, but

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those goals. So, I mean, I think it's it's actually probably the

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most point of question and the one
that needs to be answered the most.

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Quite frankly, there's an obsession with
RAFA right now because it's been the thing

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in the news, and you know, with a progressive administration on the US

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side and around the world, with
seeing a lot of sympathy for the Palestinians.

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It's my god, the humanitarian situation
we need to focus on. RAFA

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is going to be done, and
not that long. This is not going

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to be a very long operation.
As you mentioned, it pivots to the

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longer term question and it's one that
has actually probably I think the worst moan

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Israeli security perspective. Like you mentioned, who is going to take over security

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afterwards? Inside because you need to, like we talked about clear bill and

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holds, somebody has to provide security. Who is going to govern that space?

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Right? And then we talk about
reconstruction. If we look at the

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damage that we've seen, fifty percent
of buildings are damaged or destroyed in one

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capacity or another. It's going to
be a decade to rebuild, at least

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on most estimates. If the people
there don't accept the governing institution that is

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put on top of them, right, they may rise up against it.

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So if it's not a if the
Pelstony authority doesn't come in and they're not

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accepted, or somebody else outside of
Hamas right now, knowledge you have Hamas

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remnants that are going to rise up, but you may have the population that's

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going to rise up. And then
for security, if that security force ends

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up being the IDF and there's not
an outside force of contractors or a coalition

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of Arab states or whatever or else
has been proposed, you essentially end up

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with the Iractionnario and I hate using
these comparisons generalize ones to other conflicts,

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but if we think about it,
it's essentially where we are, right all

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right, We've taken Bagdad, and
we've we've beaten the Iraqi army in two

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thousand and three, fantastic. We're
a uniformed military force whose mission is to

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conduct military operations and defeat an adversary. Now you're telling me, I got

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a whole display. We could do
the security mission. Sure, Okay,

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who does governance? Anybody in here
do governance? Nation and state building?

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Who the hell is responsible for that? So and that's again when we had

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a population and an ingenious decision to
send the Iraqi army home without their weapons

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and have a bunch of military age
males without jobs or income who are now

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pissed off at what's going on.
Right, and at least there there was

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at least a democratic election of local
candidates who were not selected by the US.

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Eventually, right, there's a democracy
where you have a Shia majority government

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for the first time after Saddam was
removed. Right in Gaza, we're not

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even talking about that. So we're
talking about potentially these Raelies from what we're

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hearing of these so far, because
there's been no announcements to what the hell

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of plan is. Right again,
Rafa is the big thing. Great,

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what happens in two three weeks a
month when this is done? If the

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plan is for the IDF to remain
there at the security posture, also administer

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temporary governance and then start the reconstruction
process and try to find some alternative government

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against there hasn't been elections in the
Palestinia, a decision, by the way,

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which has tremendous economic and social implications
throughout Israelis society much. It's not

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an operation. It's not like deciding
to surge the military to Iron one hundred

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percent, as you mentioned, because
it's just simply not there from a size

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perspective, and the economic impact to
israel effort from the limited. You know,

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00:24:11.519 --> 00:24:12.200
the war went only on for a
few months. We've been at war

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00:24:12.240 --> 00:24:15.440
for twenty years in the US.
There was a pretty sizable impact the Israeli

385
00:24:15.480 --> 00:24:18.400
economy with people that we're missing.
We're seeing it Ukraine another small country as

386
00:24:18.400 --> 00:24:22.319
well. You know, thirty percent
of factories or thirty percent of production capacities

387
00:24:22.319 --> 00:24:26.240
down in many cases for Ukrainian factories
where people are off to work. So

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00:24:26.319 --> 00:24:27.799
the impacts are real, as you
mentioned, from an economic perspective as well

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00:24:27.839 --> 00:24:32.119
as societal. So even if that
wasn't the case, but it is,

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00:24:32.680 --> 00:24:36.200
you have to worry about that.
You don't have the numbers, and you

391
00:24:36.359 --> 00:24:37.480
end up with that point. So
for folks that are listening right, the

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00:24:37.519 --> 00:24:40.799
definition of what we're talking about here
is an insurgency where you have a group

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of people who are going to rise
up against the governing authority that they don't

394
00:24:42.720 --> 00:24:47.799
recognize as legitimate and against the security
apparatus in that case being the idea that

395
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they don't see is legitimate either.
And it only takes me. I mean,

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00:24:49.559 --> 00:24:52.480
we did this in Iraq for a
long time. I gave two years

397
00:24:52.519 --> 00:24:55.119
of my life almost in a country
that I'll never get back over weapons of

398
00:24:55.119 --> 00:24:59.920
mass destruction that didn't exist, fighting
in a counterinsurgency right and against an insert

399
00:25:00.000 --> 00:25:03.839
an insurgent force. And in this
case what happened hamas fighter's sticking their you

400
00:25:03.880 --> 00:25:06.759
know, rifle out of windows again. Like I said, you're not going

401
00:25:06.839 --> 00:25:10.279
to get every aka, every pistol
taking pot shots. That is rarely soldiers

402
00:25:10.400 --> 00:25:12.079
killed two, three, four today, five tomorrow. It doesn't take that

403
00:25:12.200 --> 00:25:15.200
much where that adds up over time
and you end up in the sustain It's

404
00:25:15.240 --> 00:25:19.359
actually Amasa's best case scenario. No
longer do they have to break through a

405
00:25:19.480 --> 00:25:22.759
fence to attack his fahlya soldiers.
They can do it in their own backyard,

406
00:25:23.359 --> 00:25:29.039
you know, And I and I
just you know one other comment,

407
00:25:29.440 --> 00:25:33.559
I guess just the kind of context. But the term occupation itself carries an

408
00:25:33.799 --> 00:25:41.839
incredible emotional historical weight in discussions with
the IDF, and I just turn them

409
00:25:41.880 --> 00:25:45.640
insout it now. I think one
hundred percent, right, is a very

410
00:25:45.640 --> 00:25:48.400
emotional term. I mean even the
way that you know, areas of gaz

411
00:25:48.440 --> 00:25:52.000
are described as you know, the
refugee camp, and people are thinking there's

412
00:25:52.039 --> 00:25:53.519
pitch tens, you know, somewhere
because they're used to seeing that elsewhere.

413
00:25:53.920 --> 00:25:56.799
And refugees are people who flee their
own homeland to go to another country,

414
00:25:56.880 --> 00:26:00.079
right, Otherwise they're internally displaced persons
by Definitely, if you're inside your own

415
00:26:00.079 --> 00:26:03.079
country, you're an IDP. If
you flee to a neighboring country orn outside

416
00:26:03.119 --> 00:26:06.960
country, you're a refugee. They're
not refugee gamps. People have been living

417
00:26:07.000 --> 00:26:10.359
there since nineteen forty eight, right. And the terminology is important because it's

418
00:26:11.000 --> 00:26:14.079
for them to evoke some emotion and
you know, a reflection of what they

419
00:26:14.119 --> 00:26:17.079
see as an occupation by the Israelis
of land that doesn't belong to them.

420
00:26:17.160 --> 00:26:19.519
Whereas this is the sovereign state of
Israel, and we've got people in our

421
00:26:19.559 --> 00:26:22.519
country or neighbors, they was like
preferred as a dangerous neighborhood, who want

422
00:26:22.519 --> 00:26:26.359
to kill us. So you're right, it's a very very different mindset.

423
00:26:26.400 --> 00:26:29.119
It does evoke a lot of emotion, and we're talking about it, and

424
00:26:29.400 --> 00:26:30.279
you know, there's a question of
whether or not there should be a two

425
00:26:30.319 --> 00:26:33.960
state solution or a one state solution, and unfortunately, this is the other

426
00:26:34.039 --> 00:26:37.960
conundrum that we need to talk about
as well as part of this. It's

427
00:26:37.039 --> 00:26:41.599
blatantly clear, based on the messaging
from the Arab States, Russia, hiling

428
00:26:41.720 --> 00:26:44.720
on, China, other major players
in the world, that they believe the

429
00:26:44.799 --> 00:26:48.359
solution to this is a Palestinian state
based on the sixty seven borders before that

430
00:26:48.480 --> 00:26:52.359
war, which a large squapth of
land in the West Bank with some land

431
00:26:52.400 --> 00:26:53.400
swaps as they'll call it, whatever
the hell that looks like. And then

432
00:26:53.440 --> 00:26:57.599
the guy's a strip. From an
Israeli perspective, forget the thinness of the

433
00:26:59.440 --> 00:27:02.839
state of Israel at those borders,
whether or not it's militarily defensible, eleven

434
00:27:02.880 --> 00:27:03.839
to nine miles wide, and it's
thin this point, right, you can

435
00:27:03.880 --> 00:27:07.240
cut the country in half. Put
that, just put that aside for a

436
00:27:07.319 --> 00:27:11.720
second. This is question of now
of whether a two state solutions possible.

437
00:27:11.880 --> 00:27:15.119
Is there somebody they can trust to
govern a neighboring state to give up that

438
00:27:15.240 --> 00:27:18.400
territory? Right these are? And
then are you rewarding terrorism by agreeing to

439
00:27:18.480 --> 00:27:22.519
a two state solution even if it's
not with Hamas after twelve hundred people were

440
00:27:22.559 --> 00:27:25.279
killed? And is that now going
to be seen as a forcing function for

441
00:27:25.359 --> 00:27:29.440
future policy? Ask on behalf of
other people? And politically inside and that's

442
00:27:29.440 --> 00:27:32.480
the other thing. Politically inside Israel, there isn't the appetite if you're looking

443
00:27:32.480 --> 00:27:34.440
at the polling data for a two
state solution right now, So you have

444
00:27:34.519 --> 00:27:37.839
that as just the general background for
what's going on, then there's the political

445
00:27:37.880 --> 00:27:41.839
reality. So for those of you
who are not following Israeli politics because it's

446
00:27:41.880 --> 00:27:44.759
not something most people would do.
So it's not you know, just it

447
00:27:44.880 --> 00:27:48.359
is what it is, Prime Minister
NATANYAHUO. It's a parliamentary style system.

448
00:27:48.920 --> 00:27:52.319
So it's a majority of the members
of parliament get together for a majority and

449
00:27:52.359 --> 00:27:56.480
then they elect their leader who becomes
the prime minister. In this case,

450
00:27:56.599 --> 00:27:59.200
due to a history of you know, then you always been one of the

451
00:27:59.200 --> 00:28:02.000
longest serving premiers in Israeli history.
He's got a couple of stints in and

452
00:28:02.119 --> 00:28:04.039
out of the job. There.
The coalition he had to put together to

453
00:28:04.079 --> 00:28:07.319
get the job includes you know,
what's described as the far right inside the

454
00:28:07.400 --> 00:28:11.759
Kanesset, which are groups of people
who are adamantly against a Palestinian state.

455
00:28:11.599 --> 00:28:15.359
You know, you know, Ben
Gavie's one who's very famous for being outspoken.

456
00:28:15.400 --> 00:28:17.839
I mean, he was so outspoken
and outlandish in his behavior. The

457
00:28:17.880 --> 00:28:21.640
Idea wouldn't let him join. He
actually didn't serve, which is rare in

458
00:28:21.720 --> 00:28:25.519
a country work service and mandatory conscription
and getting in not only just to serve,

459
00:28:25.559 --> 00:28:29.920
but which he is now Minister for
Security right, national security, right,

460
00:28:30.240 --> 00:28:32.000
and that touches on a couple of
things, like you're right, it's

461
00:28:32.000 --> 00:28:33.880
Minister for national security. And so
for folks who are looking at this problem

462
00:28:33.960 --> 00:28:37.880
set, you've got a guy who's
basically who's feelings towards the Palestinians was so

463
00:28:37.960 --> 00:28:41.640
great. He's now the Minister for
internal security, like like you mentioned Nation

464
00:28:41.680 --> 00:28:45.160
Security, guy who's made some outlandish
statements publicly, you know, like who

465
00:28:45.200 --> 00:28:48.079
cares about this? This is be
Israelis and the Palestinian rights don't matter,

466
00:28:48.920 --> 00:28:53.720
which has been not received well so
Natanyahu even if he wanted to make some

467
00:28:53.839 --> 00:28:57.920
more of these, you know what
would be seen as progressive gestures towards you

468
00:28:59.000 --> 00:29:03.799
know, in our state or what
not, Palestinian state. There's members of

469
00:29:03.839 --> 00:29:06.839
his cabinet who are adamantly opposed to
this. And when you have a razor

470
00:29:06.920 --> 00:29:08.240
thin majority like we're seeing in the
US right We've seen the shit show in

471
00:29:08.240 --> 00:29:11.519
the House of Representatives over the last
six months where it's like a game of

472
00:29:11.559 --> 00:29:12.640
musical chairs to forgere o that hol
the speaker is going to be every six

473
00:29:12.680 --> 00:29:17.720
weeks. It's basically the same thing
for the Israelis. Know who you know

474
00:29:18.319 --> 00:29:22.480
does something that's considered too brash or
too far is a concession. His government

475
00:29:22.519 --> 00:29:25.839
could literally collapse in terms of these
folks who pull out of the coalition and

476
00:29:26.039 --> 00:29:26.960
yeah, there's a war cabinet,
but at the end of the day,

477
00:29:26.960 --> 00:29:29.799
they could say, you know,
we're not doing this, and there's not

478
00:29:29.839 --> 00:29:32.400
a requirement to call for elections,
and he wants to remain in power.

479
00:29:32.839 --> 00:29:36.519
So you have this domestic political problem
with a razor thin majority and a group

480
00:29:36.559 --> 00:29:38.119
of people who are opposed to an
Arab state, and then you have a

481
00:29:38.160 --> 00:29:41.960
global community who is saying that we're
going to pay for this, will help

482
00:29:41.000 --> 00:29:45.839
with reconstruction, will recognize the state
of Israel, you know, in terms

483
00:29:45.839 --> 00:29:48.039
of the potential Saudi deal on the
table, but it all hinges upon the

484
00:29:48.079 --> 00:29:52.880
acceptance of a Palestinian state on the
sixty seven borders. And so the global

485
00:29:52.960 --> 00:29:59.119
community's viewpoint on this in many states, their desires and outcome for Palestinians is

486
00:29:59.319 --> 00:30:03.559
at stark contrast and odds to domestic
Israeli politics and the realities of the governing

487
00:30:03.880 --> 00:30:07.640
situation inside Israel. And so that
is probably one of the biggest problems that

488
00:30:07.640 --> 00:30:11.759
people aren't seeing. That's driving a
lot of the inability to get to get

489
00:30:11.839 --> 00:30:14.720
some of it's done, because you
got people saying you need to do this.

490
00:30:15.119 --> 00:30:18.079
People are in power, like I
can't do that. My government will

491
00:30:18.119 --> 00:30:19.279
collapse, and I want to remain
in power. And that's essentially what we're

492
00:30:19.279 --> 00:30:25.480
looking at. Sorry, yeah,
ahead to me real quick. You said

493
00:30:25.480 --> 00:30:29.039
something a while back. Sorry it
took me so long, but you had

494
00:30:29.359 --> 00:30:34.519
mentioned in the in the after you
know, the I don't know, but

495
00:30:34.759 --> 00:30:41.319
the possibility but you know, like
an Arab led uh not I guess occupation,

496
00:30:41.599 --> 00:30:48.359
but temporary governance perhaps or security or
something like that. Is there in

497
00:30:48.759 --> 00:30:53.000
whether officially or not, Is there
are there any Arab states that would be

498
00:30:53.119 --> 00:30:56.880
willing to raise your hand that you
know of and say, hey, we'll

499
00:30:56.480 --> 00:31:00.000
hold on to things, hold things
together until you get it. And my

500
00:31:00.119 --> 00:31:04.440
second part of that question would be
how long would the Palaestatan people be willing

501
00:31:04.480 --> 00:31:07.160
to put up with that? Because
that is another I could turn it to

502
00:31:07.240 --> 00:31:11.400
another occupation. So I will asge
that with yes. But so yes,

503
00:31:11.480 --> 00:31:17.000
there are, but with some conditions. You know, Gaza was administered by

504
00:31:17.039 --> 00:31:18.119
Egypt for quite some time. People
forget that, you know, historically,

505
00:31:18.119 --> 00:31:21.960
it's not the first time they've had
an outside the country that's helped to administer

506
00:31:22.119 --> 00:31:25.880
the situation there. Egypt also has
the highest anti Israeli sentiment in the entire

507
00:31:25.920 --> 00:31:27.680
Arab world. I think I think
a third of all Arabs live within six

508
00:31:27.759 --> 00:31:30.720
miles of then out river between Egypt
and Sudan. When you look at it,

509
00:31:30.759 --> 00:31:33.720
it's the epicenter of our culture and
language, one of the longest standing

510
00:31:33.759 --> 00:31:37.559
peace deals of Israel. But the
highest anti is really sentiment that's kind of

511
00:31:37.599 --> 00:31:40.519
around and there's no desire I think
for the Egyptians to do that. They're

512
00:31:40.559 --> 00:31:42.240
broke at this point they needed the
IMF loans. You know, Ceci's been

513
00:31:42.240 --> 00:31:45.880
trying to God to country the best
that he can, and they were worried

514
00:31:45.880 --> 00:31:48.680
about a permanent displacement the Palestinians.
And the reason that I mentioned this is

515
00:31:48.720 --> 00:31:52.599
tied directly to your question. For
an Arab forced to go into Gaza to

516
00:31:52.680 --> 00:31:56.079
provide security potentially have to shoot terrorists
that are trying to come out from a

517
00:31:56.200 --> 00:32:02.359
killing fellow Arabs, fellow Muslims,
and also pay for reconstruction without a commitment

518
00:32:02.400 --> 00:32:06.519
to a two state solution based on
the sixty seven borders or something that the

519
00:32:06.559 --> 00:32:09.880
Palestinian people would find acceptable for a
lot of the Arab states, and again

520
00:32:10.119 --> 00:32:14.160
the Egyptians with opening the gate to
the Sinai, the biggest concern that they

521
00:32:14.240 --> 00:32:16.799
have there is if this is a
permanent displacement and I open the gate,

522
00:32:16.920 --> 00:32:21.640
am I complicit in the end of
a Palestinian state that includes Gaza. Am

523
00:32:21.640 --> 00:32:23.680
I doing Israel's dirty work for me? And the same thing is kind of

524
00:32:23.759 --> 00:32:27.880
thought and spoken in the background,
but not publicly amongst the Arab states as

525
00:32:27.880 --> 00:32:30.640
they're looking the situation. If I
provide the security force here and I do

526
00:32:30.759 --> 00:32:37.759
the reconstruction and there's no Palestinian state. I essentially am green lighting the Israelis

527
00:32:37.839 --> 00:32:40.240
coming in conducting their actions in Gaza, all the death and destruction that took

528
00:32:40.279 --> 00:32:44.519
place. Whether you agree with Israel's
justification for doing so or not, it's

529
00:32:44.559 --> 00:32:49.359
the Raaly situation what's transpired. Am
I complicit now in that because I'm providing

530
00:32:49.400 --> 00:32:52.519
these services on the back end and
the Palestinians get nothing for it. So

531
00:32:52.559 --> 00:32:53.519
I think, yes, there are
states who are willing to do so,

532
00:32:53.720 --> 00:32:58.759
but it's going to require that to
be part of a comprehensive plan that includes

533
00:32:58.759 --> 00:33:01.359
a two state solution. And right
now, there's nothing for them to gain.

534
00:33:01.759 --> 00:33:05.680
There's absolutely nothing for them to gain
to come in and offer to do

535
00:33:05.799 --> 00:33:09.640
this. They're vilified, you know, by half the world, and they're

536
00:33:09.680 --> 00:33:14.880
not really achieving anything and that great
cost. And you know, honestly,

537
00:33:14.960 --> 00:33:19.599
the impetus behind normalization has nothing to
do with ideology. It's everything to do

538
00:33:19.799 --> 00:33:27.920
with the economies, right and so
and so why why in order to achieve

539
00:33:28.039 --> 00:33:32.680
that would any country volunteer to take
on a massive, unending, indefinite economic

540
00:33:32.799 --> 00:33:37.680
cost, not to mention all the
political baggage that comes with it. But

541
00:33:38.559 --> 00:33:42.559
I'm not sure that. You know, when I say we collectively us,

542
00:33:43.200 --> 00:33:46.279
I'm not sure that our State Department
always understands that. I think sometimes again,

543
00:33:46.599 --> 00:33:50.319
whether we're dealing with the Arab or
the Israeli side, we tend to

544
00:33:50.400 --> 00:33:54.119
mirror image our own goals and objectives
rather than you know, be able to

545
00:33:54.160 --> 00:33:58.519
see it through their eyes. You
mean not everybody's warrantogy goals are aligning,

546
00:34:00.440 --> 00:34:04.759
fix it and yeah, but I
mean inside and inside every Middle East,

547
00:34:04.799 --> 00:34:09.239
and it's just an American Texan struggling
to be waiting get his or even worse

548
00:34:09.280 --> 00:34:15.440
than New York helping the world.
That's the case, was that life from

549
00:34:15.719 --> 00:34:19.400
Block is like I would advise you
that there's certain areas of New York not

550
00:34:19.480 --> 00:34:21.360
to invade if you ever make it
to America. When he's talking to the

551
00:34:22.559 --> 00:34:30.639
the whole true, the reconstruction alone
is just a bad show. Can we

552
00:34:31.639 --> 00:34:37.000
can we touch on like what's going
on with the hostage negotiation? He's fire

553
00:34:37.079 --> 00:34:40.599
negotiation because there was like some back
and forth yesterday every you know, one

554
00:34:40.639 --> 00:34:44.519
side was saying yeah, we yeah, we agreed. The other side is

555
00:34:44.559 --> 00:34:46.199
like no, no, no,
we didn't. Yeah, So I think

556
00:34:46.239 --> 00:34:50.599
that's a great place to start.
So they originally started with two hundred hostages.

557
00:34:51.119 --> 00:34:52.760
Let me just make something equivalently clear
as far as I'm concerned from a

558
00:34:52.760 --> 00:34:57.920
policy perspective on these works. You
take hostages, you're holding them against their

559
00:34:57.960 --> 00:35:01.239
will. You were holding them inside
Gaza. The Israelis are telling you we

560
00:35:01.320 --> 00:35:06.039
are going to conduct military operations here
as a result of the attack that took

561
00:35:06.079 --> 00:35:10.199
place. It is your responsibility as
the hostage taker and you take your happy

562
00:35:10.239 --> 00:35:14.239
ass and the hostages with you out
of the combat area that's there. And

563
00:35:14.280 --> 00:35:15.440
if you can't to basically rodrop and
say hey, I can't do that.

564
00:35:15.480 --> 00:35:19.559
I realized we're talking in an idealistic
world, right that this is what's supposed

565
00:35:19.559 --> 00:35:22.760
to happen. But from a responsibility
standpoint, that is the truth. A

566
00:35:22.840 --> 00:35:25.119
mosto people is holding them against their
will. So out of those two hundred

567
00:35:25.119 --> 00:35:29.239
people, we did see that early
group of releases, right that the initial

568
00:35:29.280 --> 00:35:31.159
deal that saw you know, a
ceasefire that took place, and we saw

569
00:35:31.199 --> 00:35:36.079
the hostages being released, So we
saw that population dwindle. Since then,

570
00:35:36.119 --> 00:35:38.559
we've seen a number of bodies that
have been recovered either by as rarely special

571
00:35:38.639 --> 00:35:43.559
forces or by you know hamas videos
and announcing these people have died and then

572
00:35:43.559 --> 00:35:45.440
telling them it was Israel's fault as
means of propaganda. Whether it's true or

573
00:35:45.480 --> 00:35:50.119
not irrelevant because they were using it
for propaganda purposes. So, because how

574
00:35:50.159 --> 00:35:52.000
many people are actually left now Israel
knows in the literal sense, there are

575
00:35:52.039 --> 00:35:57.320
people who are missing who were assumed
taken on October seventh, who've either been

576
00:35:57.360 --> 00:35:59.760
seen on videos or whatever else,
so we know what kind of with that

577
00:36:00.119 --> 00:36:04.079
looks like, and most at least
state that they were taken alive. Right,

578
00:36:04.639 --> 00:36:07.920
because there's another category of people who
are missing though we don't know.

579
00:36:08.400 --> 00:36:13.039
Yeah, live for dead bodies and
people forget. The state of Israel was

580
00:36:13.039 --> 00:36:15.000
founded in the modern State of Israel
was founded in nineteen forty eight, right,

581
00:36:15.360 --> 00:36:19.800
So everybody had come from somewhere else
Zionism as they called it, starting

582
00:36:19.800 --> 00:36:22.639
the Zionis Congress starting the late eighteen
hundreds, right, started bringing people into

583
00:36:22.639 --> 00:36:25.159
the war of independence. The modern
state founded. The reason I mentioned it

584
00:36:25.280 --> 00:36:29.760
is there were waves of refugees and
immigrants that came to Israel, Jews from

585
00:36:29.760 --> 00:36:31.679
around the world and the after about
the World War two and where they're being

586
00:36:31.679 --> 00:36:36.320
oppressed in other places to come into
Israel to find the Jewish state, as

587
00:36:36.679 --> 00:36:38.679
you know, their rightful places as
a as a Jew in the world,

588
00:36:38.800 --> 00:36:42.519
that you are authorized to come to
Israel and become a citizen if you if

589
00:36:42.559 --> 00:36:45.440
you are a Jew, both in
terms of religium and also I forget the

590
00:36:45.440 --> 00:36:49.079
connection is one grand parent. I
forget what the bloodline requirement is. But

591
00:36:49.159 --> 00:36:51.440
everybody, the point is it became
somewhere else. So a lot of these

592
00:36:51.519 --> 00:36:54.320
hostages are dual citizens. They're dual
nationals because it's such a young country in

593
00:36:54.400 --> 00:36:58.719
terms of the modern state, that
the people hold dual citizenship from wherever their

594
00:36:58.760 --> 00:37:00.800
parents are. In some cases they
themselves were born if they're not first generation

595
00:37:00.880 --> 00:37:04.840
immigrants. I believe there's still five
Americans that are part of that that pool

596
00:37:04.960 --> 00:37:07.920
that's there. You've got a couple
of other problems. There was heinous sexual

597
00:37:07.000 --> 00:37:12.679
violence that took place on October seventh. You know there you've seen the videos

598
00:37:12.760 --> 00:37:15.280
of the Israeli female soldier in the
gray sweatpants with the trail of blood you

599
00:37:15.320 --> 00:37:19.280
know, from her the back to
the backside as she's being forced into a

600
00:37:19.360 --> 00:37:22.960
vehicle. While the sexual violence was
not in the forty seven minute video.

601
00:37:22.039 --> 00:37:25.360
I've seen enough. And then myself
outside of that video itself, and then

602
00:37:25.400 --> 00:37:30.239
also spoken enough people and survivors,
et cetera to know that it was real.

603
00:37:30.599 --> 00:37:34.760
I fear that there are a number
of female hostages or soldiers who may

604
00:37:34.800 --> 00:37:37.159
not come back as a result of
not wanting them, not wanting to tell

605
00:37:37.199 --> 00:37:39.280
that story. It is a real
rim fear that I have that I don't

606
00:37:39.280 --> 00:37:43.079
have anything other than a suspicion based
on the way things have gone down.

607
00:37:43.679 --> 00:37:46.440
But then more important that you mentioned
in recent days they've been negotating last couple

608
00:37:46.440 --> 00:37:51.559
of weeks. The asked was for
forty women, children and elderly as part

609
00:37:51.599 --> 00:37:53.800
of that deal, and Amas basically
came back and said, we don't have

610
00:37:54.000 --> 00:37:58.880
that many that we can find.
Right, Well, you took them,

611
00:37:59.000 --> 00:38:00.239
so when you're saying can't find them, it's not like you know, you

612
00:38:00.559 --> 00:38:04.679
put somebody somewhere like you're responsible for
them. And I asked, is it

613
00:38:04.800 --> 00:38:07.159
just Hamas that's holding the hostages or
is it like Islamichi Hoad Are there other

614
00:38:07.199 --> 00:38:12.000
groups? There were multiple, So
to start out with, you had Hamas

615
00:38:12.440 --> 00:38:15.719
Palestinian, Islamichi had and then as
Andy rightfully noted, you had a bunch

616
00:38:15.760 --> 00:38:19.320
of local criminal shitbags who also broke
through the hole in the fence that well

617
00:38:19.360 --> 00:38:21.719
Hamas sold the responsible and they created
the whole. They let they let these

618
00:38:21.840 --> 00:38:24.199
you know, pat but multiple groups
that were holding them, which was part

619
00:38:24.239 --> 00:38:27.840
of the problem. And again in
the hostage situation, the first thing you

620
00:38:27.880 --> 00:38:30.519
want to do is you want to
establish who's holding them as much you could

621
00:38:30.519 --> 00:38:32.039
figure out who these people are,
who's the decision maker on the release,

622
00:38:32.400 --> 00:38:35.400
get to them, figure out what
the hell they want? Can you actually

623
00:38:35.440 --> 00:38:37.079
give them something that's not a policy
concession, it's a terrorist and can you

624
00:38:37.119 --> 00:38:39.400
get these people released? That's what
you're looking to do in these situations,

625
00:38:39.480 --> 00:38:43.039
right, part of the problem.
That was part of the reason they were

626
00:38:43.079 --> 00:38:45.519
asking for those initial members tool ladies. I think the first ones they let

627
00:38:45.519 --> 00:38:46.599
out in the very beginning, and
that was I think proof that they were

628
00:38:46.679 --> 00:38:50.480
negotiating with the right people. Do
you have kind of command and control to

629
00:38:50.519 --> 00:38:52.559
actually release hostages? And that was
part of the establishment of that that,

630
00:38:52.639 --> 00:38:55.920
Okay, these people are real,
but you're right, does PIJ have some

631
00:38:57.000 --> 00:38:59.119
folks to other people? Yeah?
And I think that that may be part

632
00:38:59.159 --> 00:39:01.039
of it. There still should be
forty people that Hamas has alone to be

633
00:39:01.079 --> 00:39:04.280
able to get their hands on.
Some of it could be a means of

634
00:39:04.280 --> 00:39:07.039
communication issues. But yes, Israel
was bombing and they're conducting military average.

635
00:39:07.079 --> 00:39:10.119
But they told you they were conducting
military options. They told you where they

636
00:39:10.159 --> 00:39:14.880
were conducting military operations, So all
of those hostages should be safe in southern

637
00:39:14.920 --> 00:39:19.039
Gaza, somewhere out and away from
remain military operations were conducted. If Hamas

638
00:39:19.079 --> 00:39:22.360
actually did what they were supposed to
do, my fear is that either due

639
00:39:22.440 --> 00:39:27.079
to military activity, you know,
the combat up north, or you know,

640
00:39:27.199 --> 00:39:29.800
over time, not being able to
sustain these people whatever else, that

641
00:39:30.079 --> 00:39:34.400
people died during that. So I
don't believe that all of the remaining hostages

642
00:39:34.440 --> 00:39:37.079
are alive. I don't know how
many. I don't have numbers. I'm

643
00:39:37.119 --> 00:39:39.440
certainly not going to speculate and play
with people's emotions and toys. But when

644
00:39:39.440 --> 00:39:44.480
you've got a terrorist organization who is
asking for things that they want is the

645
00:39:44.559 --> 00:39:47.039
reason they took the hostages in the
first place, and they can't produce them

646
00:39:47.079 --> 00:39:51.320
the hostages that they're supposed to in
order to get what they want, that's

647
00:39:51.360 --> 00:39:53.639
a problem because again, if they
weren't asking for things, who gives a

648
00:39:53.639 --> 00:39:55.920
shit, you know, whether we
keep them alive or kill them or whatever

649
00:39:57.000 --> 00:39:59.760
else. And then from a terrorist
perspective, it doesn't matter. You took

650
00:39:59.760 --> 00:40:01.880
the hostages because you knew you were
going to need them. You knew the

651
00:40:02.000 --> 00:40:06.440
only way this situation was going to
end in your favor was through a negotiated

652
00:40:06.480 --> 00:40:10.159
settlement, because the IDF has overwhelming
military superior and advantage over you. So

653
00:40:10.360 --> 00:40:14.559
going into that and knowing that's what
how Mass's intentions were. If they can't

654
00:40:14.599 --> 00:40:16.599
produce the hostages, the only conclusion
you can draw from at that point is

655
00:40:16.599 --> 00:40:21.280
they're either in community or they're out
of communication, which is unlikely given the

656
00:40:21.320 --> 00:40:23.199
way Kasa functions and where everything is, and more likely, unfortunately, that

657
00:40:23.239 --> 00:40:27.039
there's more deceased than I think that
people are willing to admit at this point.

658
00:40:27.119 --> 00:40:30.280
I mean, that's the conclusion that
one has to draw logically. So

659
00:40:30.000 --> 00:40:37.280
my background on hostage negotiation is dealing
with my granddaughter and trying to get her

660
00:40:37.320 --> 00:40:40.800
to go to the bathroom. So
let me ask a simple Hollywood question.

661
00:40:40.960 --> 00:40:46.400
I'm sure people asking and these sorts
of things. Are the families involved or

662
00:40:46.519 --> 00:40:49.920
is it kind of like, okay, we'll take it from here. We'll

663
00:40:49.960 --> 00:40:52.039
let you know. It depends,
right, so in this particular case,

664
00:40:52.079 --> 00:40:55.360
the families are unlikely to be involved, and that's due to the fact that

665
00:40:55.400 --> 00:41:00.920
hostage takers are not looking for concessions
from the family through the family or they

666
00:41:00.000 --> 00:41:04.599
trying to communicate with the Israeli government
through the family. Right, they've taken

667
00:41:04.639 --> 00:41:07.800
into very public fashion and their negotiates
taking place and cutter, you know,

668
00:41:08.039 --> 00:41:17.400
with the representatives of different The people
on the ground are unlikely to be in

669
00:41:17.440 --> 00:41:20.599
communication. It's open. This is
open. It's not something I'm you know,

670
00:41:20.679 --> 00:41:22.480
sharing, I'm out a government,
I have a clearance anymore. I'm

671
00:41:22.519 --> 00:41:25.239
not revealing classified. Their signals intelligence
is good. I mean they understand what's

672
00:41:25.280 --> 00:41:29.360
going on inside there, which I
know sounds insane in the aftermath of October

673
00:41:29.360 --> 00:41:30.800
seventh, but they surge capabilities and
they've got a pretty good feel for what

674
00:41:30.800 --> 00:41:36.079
the hell's going on the ground.
So if they were making phone calls out

675
00:41:36.119 --> 00:41:37.559
with housages, talking to families,
et cetera, would be be a big

676
00:41:37.599 --> 00:41:40.639
problem. Which the reason they ran
hard phone lines under the ground is a

677
00:41:40.719 --> 00:41:44.480
means of evasion from the Israelis because
they know what that looks like. So

678
00:41:44.599 --> 00:41:50.000
communication is extremely unlikely. If they
need to put pressure on the Israeli governments,

679
00:41:50.079 --> 00:41:52.880
or they'll try to activate the families
by releasing these videos of people showing

680
00:41:52.920 --> 00:41:54.760
that they're still alive, to get
them fired up and go protest and try

681
00:41:54.800 --> 00:41:58.960
to agree. That's all means to
pressure a deal that Hamas believes is in

682
00:41:58.960 --> 00:42:00.599
its favor. That's the reason all
that shenanigans has kind of taken place.

683
00:42:01.280 --> 00:42:05.880
So I don't die. The families
are not that involved here, and the

684
00:42:05.960 --> 00:42:07.519
role of third parties, which normally
get like folks like me and whatever else.

685
00:42:07.679 --> 00:42:10.119
It's not an appropriate time for me
or someone else like me to try

686
00:42:10.119 --> 00:42:15.360
to insert myself in that situation where
it's very delicate ongoing negotiations at the governmental

687
00:42:15.440 --> 00:42:16.599
level, and unless they need help, where you have some sort of unique

688
00:42:16.599 --> 00:42:20.440
thing you can bring the table,
you end up meddling and causing problems.

689
00:42:20.559 --> 00:42:24.960
Right, that's perfect, thank you. It's not one of those situations I've

690
00:42:25.000 --> 00:42:30.679
observed myself. In your opinion,
Alex, do you think hostages will be

691
00:42:30.800 --> 00:42:37.400
released? Because I can't see how
MAS going for hostages being released without a

692
00:42:37.760 --> 00:42:40.039
deal on a ceasefire, and it
doesn't seem like Israel is interested in that

693
00:42:40.239 --> 00:42:45.239
at all. So I think the
big problem and the biggest disconnect in all

694
00:42:45.239 --> 00:42:51.280
of this is Moss wants a complete
ceasefire and a complete withdrawal of Israeli forces

695
00:42:51.360 --> 00:42:53.360
from Gaza. And it's like the
guy who beats the shit out of you,

696
00:42:53.400 --> 00:42:55.519
and you show up with a gun
and point out, well, you

697
00:42:55.559 --> 00:42:58.639
know, I actually didn't mean to
beat the shit out of you. I'm

698
00:42:58.679 --> 00:43:00.679
really sorry about that. I promise
not to do it again, even though

699
00:43:00.679 --> 00:43:02.400
I've been spewing nothing but genocid wal
you know, rhetoric. If I ever

700
00:43:02.480 --> 00:43:06.360
got my hands on you again,
you know, snap your neck. I

701
00:43:06.440 --> 00:43:07.400
mean, it's the center stud of
these Raelis feel going at it right.

702
00:43:07.440 --> 00:43:10.280
And like I said, if the
military objective is to you know, demilitarized

703
00:43:10.320 --> 00:43:14.000
Moss, they have to go into
Rafa and the battle therefore is not over.

704
00:43:14.360 --> 00:43:15.719
And they're not going to withdraw because
who the hell is going to provide

705
00:43:15.760 --> 00:43:19.440
security. They're not going to allow
a Hamas to reform in the vacuum,

706
00:43:20.400 --> 00:43:22.199
you know, to the extent possible. Again, that's yet to be seen.

707
00:43:22.239 --> 00:43:24.519
Over time. As Andy mentioned,
people you know creeping back up north

708
00:43:24.559 --> 00:43:28.800
and you know, and you know, reoccupying areas so that that ship show

709
00:43:28.880 --> 00:43:31.000
is already coming We're already going to
see that that battle line coming. Hamas

710
00:43:31.159 --> 00:43:36.000
continued existence in the form of governance
and a governing structure inside Gaza is a

711
00:43:36.039 --> 00:43:37.480
non starter for anybody in the West. It's a non starter for most Arab

712
00:43:37.519 --> 00:43:40.599
states. They don't like Hamas.
This is not like buying closed doors folks

713
00:43:40.639 --> 00:43:44.320
like I hate those guys. I
wish the war wasn't being prosecuted this ways,

714
00:43:44.360 --> 00:43:45.679
but I'm really not. You know, all that upset about Hamas no

715
00:43:45.719 --> 00:43:50.280
longer existing as institution. They're not
exactly a well liked group amongst most of

716
00:43:50.280 --> 00:43:52.639
the arb states. So the the
issue is, then, is there a

717
00:43:52.719 --> 00:43:57.840
willingness to accept reality. You picked
the fight you can't win. You can

718
00:43:57.880 --> 00:44:00.239
have a respite for a while.
You could, perhaps, you know,

719
00:44:00.679 --> 00:44:04.239
ease the conditions for folks on the
ground that are there, perhaps even negotiate

720
00:44:04.280 --> 00:44:06.280
your own exit, like you mentioned, to save your own ass and go

721
00:44:06.320 --> 00:44:07.639
to some other country and try to
live to fight another day. All those

722
00:44:07.679 --> 00:44:10.320
fucking guys are dead men walking,
every last one of them. The Mosada

723
00:44:10.400 --> 00:44:13.360
is going to get their hands on
them and they are going to die.

724
00:44:13.440 --> 00:44:15.639
I don't care where they are on
the face of this earth. That is

725
00:44:15.719 --> 00:44:17.239
one prediction I will make. I
will not make a lot of military predictions.

726
00:44:17.559 --> 00:44:21.599
Those men will not survive. They
will eventually say Israel's going to get

727
00:44:21.639 --> 00:44:23.519
them. So since Sinwar who's in
charge, who, by the way,

728
00:44:23.599 --> 00:44:27.440
is a sociopath. The guy is
a psycho, the one who's elected to

729
00:44:27.480 --> 00:44:31.800
take over Hamas. He was the
internal security enforcer for Hamas. At one

730
00:44:31.840 --> 00:44:36.960
point he went to prison for only
almost twenty years inside Israel. He was

731
00:44:37.000 --> 00:44:38.800
one of the ones that was released
for a Gilliat Shalit back in six At

732
00:44:38.840 --> 00:44:44.239
that point he had brain cancer and
was and survived because an Israeli neurosurgeon removed

733
00:44:44.239 --> 00:44:47.199
the tumor from his brain. So
he had murdered Palestinians and I think plans

734
00:44:47.199 --> 00:44:50.840
to kill Israeli soldiers back then,
and that's why he ended up going to

735
00:44:50.920 --> 00:44:52.320
jail and he got out. He's
run on the show now from the tunnels

736
00:44:52.719 --> 00:44:57.119
under Gaza. He's the one that
everybody's basically waiting on to say yes or

737
00:44:57.199 --> 00:45:00.840
no on this Teal And so far
it seems like Micheal and some of the

738
00:45:00.880 --> 00:45:02.840
others who were in you know,
in different plays in do Hard and Negotiating

739
00:45:02.880 --> 00:45:07.320
or wherever they happened to be hiding. It sounds like there's more favor from

740
00:45:07.320 --> 00:45:09.880
those outside to try to negotiate a
deal, and he's basically like, no,

741
00:45:10.039 --> 00:45:13.239
it's not going to happen. So
the question of whether or not there's

742
00:45:13.239 --> 00:45:16.719
a deal and hostages is going to
get out is depend upon Hamas accepting the

743
00:45:16.760 --> 00:45:22.039
fact this war will continue at some
point. You pick the fight that you

744
00:45:22.119 --> 00:45:23.679
know you can't win, and the
Israelis are going to finish it one way

745
00:45:23.760 --> 00:45:27.719
or the other, right, And
it's whether or not you're willing to give

746
00:45:27.760 --> 00:45:30.000
some reprieve to the Palestindian people and
release some you know, innocent civilians and

747
00:45:30.000 --> 00:45:34.719
everything else if they're interested in doing
that, and so far, you know

748
00:45:34.760 --> 00:45:37.840
what came back yesterday was that they
significantly produced the number of postages to be

749
00:45:37.920 --> 00:45:40.000
released and also extended the timeframe in
which they would be released, like three

750
00:45:40.039 --> 00:45:44.119
a week or something like that,
as opposed to three a day, which

751
00:45:44.199 --> 00:45:47.199
is a non starter for the Israelis. So it would take Hamas getting serious

752
00:45:47.239 --> 00:45:51.440
on releasing the hostage as well as
accepting the long term fate that Israel's going

753
00:45:51.480 --> 00:45:52.480
to continue to fight. Look,
if you don't want fight, you shouldn't

754
00:45:52.519 --> 00:45:54.519
start in the first place, right, and their argument's going to be,

755
00:45:54.559 --> 00:45:58.800
well, then we'll continue to hold
the hostages and at some point Israel's going

756
00:45:58.840 --> 00:46:00.039
to have to go in and try
to recover the to themselves and take the

757
00:46:00.159 --> 00:46:04.360
territory, or there's going to have
to be a deal settlement. But the

758
00:46:04.519 --> 00:46:07.480
terms that were put on the table
yesterday, from a security perspective and politically

759
00:46:07.480 --> 00:46:09.800
in Israel, non starter, not
gonna happen. And then and then,

760
00:46:10.199 --> 00:46:14.440
and Alex stick correct me if I'm
wrong. Then you've got this really convoluted

761
00:46:15.280 --> 00:46:19.320
kind of chain of communication for the
negotiations, right, So not even the

762
00:46:19.440 --> 00:46:22.079
US are in the room. The
israelis not so, and the parties are

763
00:46:22.199 --> 00:46:29.719
not And then the parties that Hamas
sends to Doha can't make decisions for Hamas,

764
00:46:29.840 --> 00:46:31.519
right, They've got to And as
you said, Alex, for some

765
00:46:32.159 --> 00:46:37.840
somehow they're connecting with Sindjah beneath you
know, beneath Kaza to get his final

766
00:46:37.960 --> 00:46:42.239
say so on things. And it's
like what's real Taliban, And in Doha

767
00:46:42.280 --> 00:46:45.960
as well, it's the light of
misfit. Everybody there's a mouthpiece, but

768
00:46:45.079 --> 00:46:47.480
we can make any decision. They
go go back to Kanda Arkabo to get

769
00:46:47.480 --> 00:46:51.280
a decision render. So yeah,
you have that problem, and then it

770
00:46:51.320 --> 00:46:52.960
sounds like yesterday. Another shit show
is the fact that this you know,

771
00:46:53.400 --> 00:46:58.480
negotiation allegedly was taking place without the
Israeli's dollars that there changing to the terms

772
00:47:00.119 --> 00:47:04.000
saying yeah, and the way I
read that was Hamaskan O I like this,

773
00:47:04.440 --> 00:47:07.000
this I could deal with. Everybody's
been saying that it's Hamasa's fault for

774
00:47:07.039 --> 00:47:09.280
saying no. So I'm going to
come out publicly and I'm now going to

775
00:47:09.320 --> 00:47:13.639
say yes, I've accepted the terms
of this deal. At the same time,

776
00:47:13.679 --> 00:47:16.320
political pressures bounting in Israel for a
deal to be accepted and basically trying

777
00:47:16.360 --> 00:47:19.599
to throw the ball over the Israeli
car. Well, we accept the terms

778
00:47:19.599 --> 00:47:21.800
of the deal. It's like Congress
plays the game, right, we passed

779
00:47:21.840 --> 00:47:23.400
the law, We're going home on
break. Yeah, but your law coming

780
00:47:23.440 --> 00:47:27.239
out of one chamber of the other
is completely unacceptable to the other side.

781
00:47:27.280 --> 00:47:29.559
So I don't even fun if you
pass it and you're going back home from

782
00:47:29.559 --> 00:47:32.000
wherever you're from, it's it's that's
not gonna fly. And that's essentially what

783
00:47:32.039 --> 00:47:35.719
we landed on yesterday. As it's
like, I'm glad you negotiate with yourself

784
00:47:35.760 --> 00:47:37.920
and came up with a deal that
you thought is feasible. Doesn't work for

785
00:47:37.039 --> 00:47:42.440
us. We're going into rafa until
you guys get serious. So the Israelis

786
00:47:42.440 --> 00:47:45.239
are basically saying, hey, that
deal is in a fucking sushi menu.

787
00:47:45.760 --> 00:47:49.639
Yeah, exactly. Yeah, there
will be hostages released, there will yeah,

788
00:47:50.320 --> 00:47:52.840
yeah, I mean it's in business, business too. You're a businessman

789
00:47:52.840 --> 00:47:54.559
as well, in addition to having
time and service. When you you know,

790
00:47:54.679 --> 00:47:58.840
forget Donald the r of the deal, there's only so many levers of

791
00:47:58.920 --> 00:48:00.840
power you can pull inside of deal
structure. Right, you've got terms,

792
00:48:00.880 --> 00:48:04.639
you know, payment terms net thirty, net forty five, net sixty.

793
00:48:04.760 --> 00:48:07.800
Right, you know how much profit
margin you're going to have, what other

794
00:48:07.840 --> 00:48:09.760
conditions you can have or terms on
the sale that's going to be beneficial to

795
00:48:09.800 --> 00:48:13.920
somebody else. Right, you can
tweak those levers, but it deal's got

796
00:48:13.960 --> 00:48:15.159
to be good for both sides unless
some of these backs. And at the

797
00:48:15.239 --> 00:48:19.199
end of the day, Hamas is
trying to pull all those levers in its

798
00:48:19.199 --> 00:48:22.239
favor and Israel is never going to
accept that. But Alex, I don't

799
00:48:22.320 --> 00:48:24.880
see any shaded air in the then
diagram at all, you know. So,

800
00:48:25.719 --> 00:48:30.599
so you know, as far as
organizations, possibly there's some wiggle room,

801
00:48:30.920 --> 00:48:36.199
you know, Israel Hamas maybe some
wiggle room, maybe kind of a

802
00:48:36.440 --> 00:48:39.960
Tunisian type exit for the leadership.
As you said that the Israeli snow will

803
00:48:40.000 --> 00:48:44.039
only be temporary, right, you
know, I mean it took them,

804
00:48:44.280 --> 00:48:46.199
It took them twenty four years,
but they got air faed in the end.

805
00:48:46.360 --> 00:48:52.519
Right. Well, it's actually but
actually fascinating story. If we got

806
00:48:52.559 --> 00:48:54.519
time for that. When you're done, I want to hit that piece because

807
00:48:54.519 --> 00:48:59.360
actually, yeah, yeah, you're
going to steal to stop talking. I

808
00:48:59.360 --> 00:49:02.079
would love to hear that. So
Arafat. So I got to meet one

809
00:49:02.079 --> 00:49:05.559
of the agency doctors at one point
and kind of told us the story about

810
00:49:05.639 --> 00:49:07.760
what had happened with Arafat because it
kind of came up as a means because

811
00:49:07.800 --> 00:49:12.440
his job was to assess the health
of foreigners and see how they're doing right,

812
00:49:12.920 --> 00:49:15.800
and so everybody I was looking for
antidote anecdotes are cool stories when you

813
00:49:15.840 --> 00:49:17.280
go to training classes in the community
and said, well, you know,

814
00:49:17.440 --> 00:49:22.239
Arafat, he actually died, and
you know he's like the Israelis didn't didn't

815
00:49:22.280 --> 00:49:23.800
actually get him and I said,
what do you means? He said,

816
00:49:23.840 --> 00:49:27.039
but they kind of did. I
said, can you explain what you mean?

817
00:49:27.480 --> 00:49:30.119
And he said, well, he
got sick. He ended up with

818
00:49:30.199 --> 00:49:31.960
septis semia where he had you know, the infection had gotten so bad I

819
00:49:31.960 --> 00:49:36.239
got in bloodstream and when he was
septi scemic and required surgery, he was

820
00:49:36.280 --> 00:49:37.119
in France, right, so he
was supposed to have surgery. I believe

821
00:49:37.119 --> 00:49:39.480
he was in Paris where they were
going to conduct the surgery, and supposed

822
00:49:39.480 --> 00:49:43.239
the French doctors got together, like
with the septi seemia that's here and the

823
00:49:43.280 --> 00:49:45.119
conditions and his age and everything else, there's a good chance he's going to

824
00:49:45.159 --> 00:49:47.559
die in the operating table. I'm
not fucking touching him. I'm going to

825
00:49:47.599 --> 00:49:51.920
be the one labeled as responsible for
killing Arafat on the table. And he

826
00:49:52.159 --> 00:49:53.679
was so paranoid that the Israelis would
get him, you know, in a

827
00:49:53.760 --> 00:49:57.760
medical situation, they would get to
him, like in a hospital somewhere,

828
00:49:58.159 --> 00:50:00.119
that he held off on medical treatment
till the very end, until it was

829
00:50:00.159 --> 00:50:02.599
too late. So he's like,
well, the Israelis didn't get him.

830
00:50:02.599 --> 00:50:07.679
It was the paranoia that they had
induced in him after years of assassination attempts

831
00:50:07.880 --> 00:50:09.719
that actually caused him not to seek
medical treatment until it was too late,

832
00:50:09.800 --> 00:50:12.960
and for the French to go,
fuck this, I'm not touching him.

833
00:50:13.679 --> 00:50:16.280
That is such a great no.
I mean, that's such a great story.

834
00:50:16.320 --> 00:50:21.159
I mean the irony because how many
times did Marsat try to kill him?

835
00:50:21.159 --> 00:50:24.039
I Meangman, you know in that
book Rise and Kill First. If

836
00:50:24.079 --> 00:50:31.559
you look up assassination attempts on Arafat, it's like, I mean, asan

837
00:50:31.599 --> 00:50:35.119
barrock at one point when he was
prime minister, because he had been there

838
00:50:35.159 --> 00:50:38.079
and dealt the force equivalent commander in
terms of uh Syria. McCall right.

839
00:50:38.639 --> 00:50:42.800
I think at one point in his
book he talked about standing there with like

840
00:50:42.840 --> 00:50:45.199
a I don't know if it was
an RPG or like a shoulder fired rocket

841
00:50:45.239 --> 00:50:46.679
that he was in a field that
was supposed to be aimed at killing Arafat.

842
00:50:47.000 --> 00:50:50.639
And then then Arafat's in charge.
Eight years later, he's the prime

843
00:50:50.679 --> 00:50:52.519
minister and the two of them were
trying to negotiate a peacedale. I mean

844
00:50:52.599 --> 00:50:57.119
exactly that. It's just give you
an illusture of example of how fucked up

845
00:50:57.119 --> 00:51:02.079
the politics are there at that point. But there's some symmetry there when Malacham.

846
00:51:02.480 --> 00:51:07.360
When Bagan wanted to visit the UK
in nineteen seventy seven, the British

847
00:51:07.400 --> 00:51:16.039
had to remove a a an arrest
warrant for murder for for connection with the

848
00:51:17.159 --> 00:51:22.920
blowing up the hotel. David back
in when does that forty five forty one

849
00:51:23.000 --> 00:51:28.400
there in the forties? Absolutely insane? I mean one day you were fighting

850
00:51:28.440 --> 00:51:31.519
one next to your that's right,
yeah, and they found out almost at

851
00:51:31.519 --> 00:51:37.239
the last minute. It was a
hilarious story. Special Branch is that's awesome,

852
00:51:37.719 --> 00:51:44.039
but we need to be there for
the arrival summit ceremony because we've that

853
00:51:44.199 --> 00:51:50.360
is insane. I got one more
question about the whole What does Egypt do

854
00:51:50.480 --> 00:51:52.800
because like there's been some talk about
Egypt kind of spinning up and is not

855
00:51:53.000 --> 00:51:57.639
interested in like like you said,
like you know, a million refugees coming

856
00:51:57.679 --> 00:52:01.480
through there, you know that border. See does the Egyptian military do anything?

857
00:52:01.519 --> 00:52:06.880
Do they spin up I don't see
it now, spin up perhaps on

858
00:52:06.960 --> 00:52:08.440
the other side of a fence to
make sure that people escape, because there

859
00:52:08.440 --> 00:52:12.320
were some reports yesterday that you know
it must be blow try to blow a

860
00:52:12.320 --> 00:52:15.280
whole the fence to cause chaos and
let the palestin the in start of escape

861
00:52:15.280 --> 00:52:16.880
the situation. The reality is,
if you talk to the vest majority of

862
00:52:16.920 --> 00:52:21.079
Pealestinians, yes they would, they
would like humanitarian assistants. They don't want

863
00:52:21.079 --> 00:52:22.519
to leave. They want their own
country. So by them leaving, right,

864
00:52:22.559 --> 00:52:24.440
they're not going to get they want. I think there's people be happy

865
00:52:24.480 --> 00:52:27.559
refugees and get the hell out of
Gaza. Don't get me wrong, given

866
00:52:27.559 --> 00:52:30.199
the circumstances. But for the Egyptians, they're not going to start a war

867
00:52:30.280 --> 00:52:32.400
with these railies. They're not going
to There won't be military you know,

868
00:52:32.639 --> 00:52:36.800
you know, uh clashes between the
two so to speak. It would be

869
00:52:37.159 --> 00:52:39.480
the situation's sort of unforeseeable. They
do have one of the oldest I mean,

870
00:52:39.559 --> 00:52:43.840
let's not forget look how far we
are into this war and the conditions

871
00:52:43.840 --> 00:52:45.760
that you see in Gaza and what
the you know people are talking about.

872
00:52:46.280 --> 00:52:50.880
They still have diplomatic relations, you
know, with a number of countries,

873
00:52:50.880 --> 00:52:52.039
they have peace treaties with it.
Right, they haven't suspended, they haven't

874
00:52:52.039 --> 00:52:55.760
pulled thembasters. So we haven't even
gotten to the point where we start,

875
00:52:55.880 --> 00:53:00.400
like the diplomatic dictance that starts before
that the combat starts where it's like,

876
00:53:00.400 --> 00:53:02.320
Okay, I'm going to recall this
guy for consultations. Now I'm going to

877
00:53:02.360 --> 00:53:05.920
pull the ambassador from here. We're
going to degrade, you know, our

878
00:53:06.320 --> 00:53:09.280
status here in this country. We
haven't even started executing through those diplomatic steps

879
00:53:09.360 --> 00:53:13.639
yet, never mind getting down to
a military conflict between the two states.

880
00:53:13.679 --> 00:53:16.119
So I think of anything, it's
potentially we see them, you know,

881
00:53:16.239 --> 00:53:21.639
providing security around around Gos and to
make sure people don't come into Egypt.

882
00:53:21.719 --> 00:53:23.360
But I don't I don't see them
them going inside. They don't want touch

883
00:53:23.360 --> 00:53:27.039
it, as we're mentioned earlier,
as any mentioned too, for political reasons,

884
00:53:27.360 --> 00:53:29.840
for economic reasons. They don't want
to do it. It's they would

885
00:53:29.920 --> 00:53:31.639
like this is a they don't want
to touch this with a ten foot pole,

886
00:53:31.679 --> 00:53:37.400
nless they have to. And and
also to be clear, for the

887
00:53:37.519 --> 00:53:40.679
Israelis, having CC and control in
Egypt is the best of a number of

888
00:53:40.760 --> 00:53:45.039
bad options. You know, they
have delighted that it's not more sea still

889
00:53:45.119 --> 00:53:50.199
on the Muslim Brotherhood, but who
you know, the Cross is an offshoot

890
00:53:50.199 --> 00:53:55.760
of the Muslim Brotherhood. So and
there is and there's more collaboration and cooperation

891
00:53:55.960 --> 00:54:01.360
behind the scenes than people realize is
the Egyptian government is sensitive to its own

892
00:54:01.400 --> 00:54:07.880
public, who as wait, so
hates Csraeli's but that the pragmatists, you

893
00:54:07.960 --> 00:54:14.559
know at the desert they are are. So what happens now? What's your

894
00:54:14.599 --> 00:54:20.320
best prediction? I know that's horribly
unfair, but we've got we've got nothing

895
00:54:20.440 --> 00:54:22.280
closer to an expert. I know
you don't like been cool an expert.

896
00:54:22.440 --> 00:54:28.920
God help you wait, I can't
imagine anyone closer to an expert. So,

897
00:54:30.679 --> 00:54:35.000
I mean, how I see it
going. The key decision that still

898
00:54:35.079 --> 00:54:37.280
has to be rendered is by sin
More and whether or not he's willing to

899
00:54:37.360 --> 00:54:40.639
accept reality on some of these major
points in the deal. So far it

900
00:54:40.800 --> 00:54:45.119
seems to be a bridge too far
that they're unwilling to do that. Israel

901
00:54:45.280 --> 00:54:49.360
will go into Rafa. It's going
to happen sooner, or it's going to

902
00:54:49.480 --> 00:54:52.960
happen later. I believe that the
IDF will be asked to provide security inside

903
00:54:53.000 --> 00:54:57.400
of Gaza, at least initially while
they're there there is I mean, we

904
00:54:57.519 --> 00:55:01.280
are too close to the end of
an operation of with no mobilization of forces

905
00:55:01.320 --> 00:55:05.880
from an Arab country to expect them
to be the day after scenario to take

906
00:55:05.920 --> 00:55:09.440
over security. So the short term
and the midterm is becoming increasingly clear.

907
00:55:09.840 --> 00:55:14.840
What is still unclear this point is
a long term solution for governance post war,

908
00:55:14.920 --> 00:55:17.320
reconstruction and security, and that is
where I think we're going to attempt

909
00:55:17.360 --> 00:55:22.320
to see some more US broker deals
in the background and trying to see this

910
00:55:22.400 --> 00:55:28.440
normalization go on. The sticking point
I mentioned on one side more he's willing

911
00:55:28.480 --> 00:55:31.320
to accept reality there. The other
sticking point then for the longer term solution

912
00:55:32.360 --> 00:55:38.840
is whether or not Israel is going
to move towards the state Tuesday, Alex,

913
00:55:38.880 --> 00:55:45.599
you're breaking up a little bit there
towards the sixty seven middle. Yeah,

914
00:55:45.599 --> 00:55:50.000
Alex, Sorry we lost you there. You got a little choppy just

915
00:55:50.079 --> 00:55:53.719
from the lost pomp. Yeah.
As you're telling you about the state solution,

916
00:55:54.559 --> 00:55:59.039
it was, you know, a
sense it that the whole thing.

917
00:55:59.280 --> 00:56:02.360
So for the folks or you know, pro two state solution, there isn't

918
00:56:02.400 --> 00:56:06.800
the domestic support inside of Israel for
that. So again, if I mentioned

919
00:56:06.840 --> 00:56:10.519
sin war being the short term issue
in terms of his willingness to accept reality

920
00:56:10.639 --> 00:56:15.679
and what's not going to happen as
the result of the negotiated settlement to the

921
00:56:15.039 --> 00:56:19.039
war. There's a long term issue
that has to be addressed, which is

922
00:56:19.159 --> 00:56:22.039
on the Israeli side, which is
the you know, a two state solution,

923
00:56:22.519 --> 00:56:24.199
and there isn't the domestic will Ford
right now. And for folks again

924
00:56:24.360 --> 00:56:29.320
not following Israeli politics, well,
nen Yah who just gets out of office,

925
00:56:29.360 --> 00:56:30.320
this is all going to get solved. You know, he's a conservative

926
00:56:30.400 --> 00:56:32.920
loan and you know he doesn't want
a two state solutions never going to happen

927
00:56:34.079 --> 00:56:36.199
if you look at the polling data. First of all, he's really left,

928
00:56:36.239 --> 00:56:37.960
has been decimated. He's really left
in politics, but relatively doesn't really

929
00:56:37.960 --> 00:56:42.880
exist in terms of a functioning entity
right now. Those days are long gone,

930
00:56:42.880 --> 00:56:45.000
and who knows what happens in the
future. But you know Benny Gantz

931
00:56:45.119 --> 00:56:47.599
is likely going to come in afterwards. And while he comes with a lot

932
00:56:47.679 --> 00:56:52.760
less the political legal baggage that Netanyahu
does, if you look at his stances

933
00:56:52.800 --> 00:56:54.599
on the war and the other people
in the wark Habin, their stances are

934
00:56:54.800 --> 00:56:58.079
just as firm as that who is
on a lot of these issues, and

935
00:56:58.119 --> 00:57:01.559
they're subject to the same public opinion
poll and votes as Netanyahuz. And so

936
00:57:02.159 --> 00:57:06.000
there's two things that in order for
this really to get moved. There's two

937
00:57:06.079 --> 00:57:10.360
things that have to get solved.
Sinmar has to accept reality for this war

938
00:57:10.519 --> 00:57:13.920
is not going to end on his
terms, and the fact that he wants

939
00:57:13.960 --> 00:57:15.719
these Raelies out in a permanent ceasefire. That's great. I want a golden

940
00:57:15.760 --> 00:57:19.119
Ferrari. No one's parking one of
my driveway next weekening it to happen.

941
00:57:19.360 --> 00:57:22.280
And the long term, there needs
to be some sort of willingness to move

942
00:57:22.440 --> 00:57:25.960
towards a two state solution but not
make it look like it's rewarding terrorism,

943
00:57:27.000 --> 00:57:30.119
which is a difficult balancing act in
order for us to see a realistic foreign

944
00:57:30.199 --> 00:57:35.880
security force and investment in reconstruction to
take place. So unfortunately, we are

945
00:57:35.960 --> 00:57:38.719
coming close to the end of the
end for the end of becoming shortly for

946
00:57:38.800 --> 00:57:42.400
Rafick. It's a small area that
needs to get cleared. We are getting

947
00:57:42.519 --> 00:57:45.000
very close to where the day after
scenario is supposed to start, where the

948
00:57:45.079 --> 00:57:49.199
day after scenario is completely undefined.
And so that is the biggest concern that

949
00:57:49.239 --> 00:57:52.719
I see in front of us right
now is the coming insurgency that I believe

950
00:57:52.840 --> 00:57:58.880
is coming. Yikes, Alex,
I'm not going to make a flippant come

951
00:57:58.960 --> 00:58:01.679
in at the end about you wassend
on a on a high note because you

952
00:58:01.760 --> 00:58:07.920
know, I think sadly you are
right on tugget. I'm a Mets fan.

953
00:58:08.000 --> 00:58:13.360
There's always next season. Oh god, yeah, you know if I

954
00:58:13.400 --> 00:58:15.880
always a sports fan. I think
it's something pathetic to say, you know,

955
00:58:16.000 --> 00:58:20.599
to try and raise our spirits right
at the end. But instead I'm

956
00:58:20.639 --> 00:58:22.920
gonna turn over to d all Right, Alex, everybody can find you on

957
00:58:22.960 --> 00:58:29.719
Twitter and LinkedIn obviously, right,
Alex plezis what's your Twitter handle? I'm

958
00:58:29.719 --> 00:58:31.239
gonna put it all in the description
anyway, so if anyone love it,

959
00:58:31.559 --> 00:58:35.039
fellow Greek has to stop to try
to get that last name correct. You

960
00:58:35.119 --> 00:58:37.000
know, it's that because you try
to pronounce it the other time. And

961
00:58:37.039 --> 00:58:39.519
I was just gonna say, pleizzis. I mean I heard, I think,

962
00:58:39.559 --> 00:58:43.800
probably the most insulting comment, which
you can't even you know, say

963
00:58:43.840 --> 00:58:45.360
in this environment anymore. Boot camp
twenty years ago, I had a drill

964
00:58:45.400 --> 00:58:47.599
sergeant and looked at me and goes, do you know what pleza is?

965
00:58:47.679 --> 00:58:50.719
I was like, what, you
know those moments where you're like, oh

966
00:58:50.719 --> 00:58:52.320
God, what's coming? Because that's
the one part of the buffalo the natives

967
00:58:52.320 --> 00:58:55.480
would need. I didn't even know
how. I sat there utterly stuck.

968
00:58:55.519 --> 00:59:00.960
I didn't even had to respond to
that. It's so for Twitter, it's

969
00:59:00.039 --> 00:59:05.280
at A L e x P L
I T s A s so at Alex

970
00:59:05.320 --> 00:59:07.559
bleitzis and linkedin' the same subs Alex
Bleitzas. All right, I'm gonna leave

971
00:59:07.559 --> 00:59:12.880
all the links in the description,
of course Andy's award winning book. Congratulations

972
00:59:12.960 --> 00:59:15.760
Andy, congratulations. Maybe yeah,
the link will be in the description.

973
00:59:16.000 --> 00:59:20.039
That's the last episode. You need
to do that, But I appreciate it,

974
00:59:20.199 --> 00:59:23.119
all right, higl buying a copy
of you guys having a Bandy's book.

975
00:59:23.199 --> 00:59:27.880
Yeah, it's incredible, it is
good. Yeah, well, thank

976
00:59:27.920 --> 00:59:30.199
you? What else? Okay,
if you're listening to us, rate and

977
00:59:30.239 --> 00:59:35.400
review. If you're watching us,
like and subscribe, check out our Patreon,

978
00:59:35.519 --> 00:59:38.800
Patreon dot com slash the Teamhouse.
We have a really important guest tomorrow

979
00:59:38.840 --> 00:59:44.320
on the Teamhouse. Adam Gamal.
He wrote the unit. Uh yeah,

980
00:59:44.360 --> 00:59:46.199
he's in studio too, but I'm
gonna be blocking his face out live,

981
00:59:46.280 --> 00:59:50.239
so hopefully I don't screw that up
and show his identity. There's another Team

982
00:59:50.280 --> 00:59:55.199
House podcast. Yeah, can you
imagine the actually yeah, you audacity you

983
00:59:55.280 --> 00:59:59.119
know what they see me and Jason. Everyone wants to be us. Huh

984
00:59:59.440 --> 01:00:02.599
exactly. It's not that, it's
not that fucking Jack Jack Something Murphy,

985
01:00:04.840 --> 01:00:09.920
Jack Murphy, that Green Beret rabble
rouser, another musclehead, Dave popped it,

986
01:00:10.000 --> 01:00:16.239
said warrior scollar right to one of
these. Thanks als, We really

987
01:00:16.280 --> 01:00:21.119
appreciate that. Yeah, you guys
awesome. That was guys. You do