1 00:00:00,120 --> 00:00:03,839 What's going on with the economy and potentially what's coming. And then we're going 2 00:00:03,879 --> 00:00:09,199 to look at some technical analysis to look at the various financial markets that people 3 00:00:09,240 --> 00:00:14,000 are most interested the dollar, SMP gold, gold stocks, and treasure yields. 4 00:00:14,160 --> 00:00:19,280 You're listening to Carrie Lutz's Financial Survival Network, where you get valuable information 5 00:00:19,399 --> 00:00:24,760 you just can't find anywhere else to thrive in today's trying times. You need 6 00:00:24,800 --> 00:00:31,359 the Financial Survival Network now more than ever. Go to Financial Survivalnetwork dot com 7 00:00:31,399 --> 00:00:38,039 and get your free newsletter and gift. Financial Survival Network now more than ever. 8 00:00:41,520 --> 00:00:46,799 And welcome. You are listening to and watching the Financial Survival Network. 9 00:00:46,840 --> 00:00:51,359 I'm your host, Carrie Lutz, and we're here with our good friend Jim 10 00:00:51,399 --> 00:00:58,640 Welsh from macrotides dot com. And Jim's got some some info that he wants 11 00:00:58,679 --> 00:01:03,719 to share with you. Got any questions or comments, you can always send 12 00:01:03,719 --> 00:01:07,359 an email to me k l at kerry Lets dot com. In the meantime, 13 00:01:07,760 --> 00:01:12,159 Jim you find him at macrotides dot com. Jim. Great to have 14 00:01:12,200 --> 00:01:19,319 you back on so Hey, you got some new numbers for us. Great 15 00:01:19,319 --> 00:01:23,400 to be joining you, Carrie. As your viewers will see, we're going 16 00:01:23,480 --> 00:01:27,200 to look at the fundamental side of the equation in terms of what's going on 17 00:01:27,319 --> 00:01:30,760 with the economy and potentially what's coming. And then we're going to look at 18 00:01:30,760 --> 00:01:36,680 some technical analysis to look at the various financial markets that you know, people 19 00:01:36,719 --> 00:01:41,040 are most interested the dollar s and p gold, gold stocks, and treasure 20 00:01:41,120 --> 00:01:48,799 yields. So you know, as people may remember, the Bureau of Economic 21 00:01:48,840 --> 00:01:56,359 Analysis when they did their first revision a first quarter GDP, it dropped from 22 00:01:56,400 --> 00:02:02,040 one point six percent to one point three And as I discussed in various letters, 23 00:02:02,840 --> 00:02:10,000 that was a little misleading carry because the BEA subtracts imports, and the 24 00:02:10,039 --> 00:02:17,280 reason why is because they're trying to capture domestic production. So the point though, 25 00:02:17,439 --> 00:02:24,800 is if demand is so strong that it's being fulfilled from overseas, that 26 00:02:24,960 --> 00:02:30,560 doesn't reflect weakness. So they subtracted point nine percent from first quarter GDP. 27 00:02:31,159 --> 00:02:38,759 And the second thing is retailers paired inventories, which subtracted another point five Now, 28 00:02:38,800 --> 00:02:43,080 what happens is when they cut back on inventories, unless the economy slows 29 00:02:43,120 --> 00:02:46,599 immediately, over time, they're going to rebuild those inventories. So the point 30 00:02:46,599 --> 00:02:52,360 being is that one point three percent was really closer to two point seven when 31 00:02:52,400 --> 00:02:57,960 you adjust for these other factors. So the idea being is, do we 32 00:02:58,000 --> 00:03:00,520 need to be worry about a recession right here, right now. No. 33 00:03:01,360 --> 00:03:08,439 But I think what we're going to review is some indicators that suggest a market 34 00:03:08,719 --> 00:03:15,680 slowing in the economy is coming. And I like this quote from Somerset Vaughn. 35 00:03:15,840 --> 00:03:20,520 The fact that a great many people believe something is no guarantee of its 36 00:03:20,560 --> 00:03:25,159 truth. And look at the chart below which it shows that now eighty eight 37 00:03:25,560 --> 00:03:31,360 percent of economists has surveyed in the first week of June by Bloomberg don't think 38 00:03:31,400 --> 00:03:37,039 we have to worry about a recession. And the counterpoint is back in twenty 39 00:03:37,080 --> 00:03:42,520 twenty two, the majority of economists thought we were going to be in a 40 00:03:42,560 --> 00:03:45,439 recession, and if not, in twenty twenty two, twenty twenty three, 41 00:03:46,240 --> 00:03:50,800 and in twenty twenty two and twenty three. My point was job growth is 42 00:03:51,000 --> 00:03:54,280 really strong, consumers still have money, So the idea that we were going 43 00:03:54,319 --> 00:04:00,159 to have a recession in twenty twenty two or twenty twenty three was unlikely at 44 00:04:00,199 --> 00:04:01,759 this point. Though, just at a time when everyone else is like, 45 00:04:01,800 --> 00:04:04,919 hey, we don't have to worry about a recession, I think there are 46 00:04:05,000 --> 00:04:13,400 reasons why more caution is warranted. And so if we skipped down to the 47 00:04:13,400 --> 00:04:18,040 next page, you know, consumer spending has really been the linchpin under the 48 00:04:18,040 --> 00:04:25,800 economy, and the bank credit analyst has a model where they look at the 49 00:04:26,079 --> 00:04:32,800 individual state on employment numbers, they adjust him for the population in each state 50 00:04:33,439 --> 00:04:39,079 and come up with an adjusted unemployment rate and historically, going back to the 51 00:04:39,160 --> 00:04:42,839 late nineteen seventies, carry it. Anytime this has gone up by I think 52 00:04:42,879 --> 00:04:46,560 twenty five basis points, it's signaled a recession. There has never been a 53 00:04:46,560 --> 00:04:49,240 false positive. In other words, there's never been a time when it's, 54 00:04:49,240 --> 00:04:53,240 oh, yeah, we got to worry about a recession and then one didn't 55 00:04:53,279 --> 00:04:59,120 show up. So in March this gave a recession signal. And historically, 56 00:04:59,120 --> 00:05:01,439 going back to the lates seventies, the league time has been less than six 57 00:05:01,519 --> 00:05:05,680 months. So to me, again, I'm going to take from this not 58 00:05:05,720 --> 00:05:09,879 necessarily oh my god, the sky's going to be falling here six months from 59 00:05:09,920 --> 00:05:15,720 March, but that the notion that the the labor market is going to remain 60 00:05:15,839 --> 00:05:21,120 strong. This really casts doubt on whether that's going to be sustained. And 61 00:05:21,439 --> 00:05:27,480 the next chart kind of shows and it hasn't been getting a lot of attention. 62 00:05:28,360 --> 00:05:31,560 Is the unemployment rate bottom that three point four percent in April of twenty 63 00:05:31,639 --> 00:05:35,399 twenty three, So it's been kind of creeping higher. You know, it's 64 00:05:35,439 --> 00:05:41,000 like putting the frog in the pot on the stove and the temperature gets increased 65 00:05:41,079 --> 00:05:46,199 very gradually. Well, the unemployment rate's gone from three point four to four 66 00:05:46,240 --> 00:05:50,000 percent in May. Historically, going back to nineteen forty five, carry, 67 00:05:50,319 --> 00:05:57,040 whenever you've had this amount of increase, there has always been a recession. 68 00:05:57,519 --> 00:06:01,279 And again I'll say there's been a lot of usual aspects to this recovery. 69 00:06:01,680 --> 00:06:05,800 You know, one being the huge amount of government spending which is continuing. 70 00:06:06,319 --> 00:06:10,959 Uh, you know, the deficit for this year revised from i think one 71 00:06:11,040 --> 00:06:16,120 point five trillion from in February to one point nine trillion. So again what 72 00:06:16,160 --> 00:06:20,360 we're seeing is, hey, the consumer has been the linch pin and the 73 00:06:20,480 --> 00:06:25,959 labor market has been very beneficial. I think it's going to slow. This 74 00:06:26,199 --> 00:06:31,160 looks at yield curb inversions going back to like nineteen twenty eight, and what 75 00:06:31,240 --> 00:06:35,720 it chose is whenever there's been an inversion over three hundred and fifty days a 76 00:06:35,839 --> 00:06:40,600 recession. This surely followed, we're at about six hundred and three days. 77 00:06:40,879 --> 00:06:46,199 I think as of yesterday, you're late last week. So again my point 78 00:06:46,319 --> 00:06:48,079 is, oh, I'm not saying, oh the guy the sky fall and 79 00:06:48,160 --> 00:06:53,800 this guideline. It just raises the probability, in my point, my view, 80 00:06:54,600 --> 00:06:59,399 that we're going to see a market slowing in the economy as all these 81 00:06:59,439 --> 00:07:02,160 things kind of come home to bear. And you know, the FED has 82 00:07:02,160 --> 00:07:08,720 decided higher for longer, which didn't surprise me one bit. But the reality 83 00:07:08,959 --> 00:07:14,600 is for small businesses that used the banking system for funding, that higher for 84 00:07:14,720 --> 00:07:21,000 longer is significant because they're paying nine to eleven percent most small businesses to borrow 85 00:07:21,040 --> 00:07:27,480 money, and small businesses in this country create fifty percent of all new jobs. 86 00:07:28,319 --> 00:07:31,240 So the longer we go with these rates where they're at and Kerry, 87 00:07:31,759 --> 00:07:38,240 it's going to I think wigh on small businesses, and again that has implications 88 00:07:38,600 --> 00:07:43,199 for the labor market. All right, Yeah, So the number of days 89 00:07:43,279 --> 00:07:50,399 that this inverted yield curve has persisted for and really the Fed's been powerless to 90 00:07:50,439 --> 00:07:56,839 do anything about it really is sending out major alarm bells, isn't it. 91 00:07:57,519 --> 00:08:01,759 Yeah, I mean that to me, the takeaway value here these stats is 92 00:08:03,000 --> 00:08:09,639 again the economy is going to be slowing, I think markedly as we go 93 00:08:09,720 --> 00:08:13,839 towards the end of this year and especially next year, because I think commercial 94 00:08:13,879 --> 00:08:20,120 real estate is going to be a more significant problem next year. Last year 95 00:08:20,720 --> 00:08:24,120 banks did extend and pretend, in other words, loans can do, and 96 00:08:24,160 --> 00:08:26,319 they worked out some stuff pushing it off in the future. But as we 97 00:08:26,360 --> 00:08:31,159 all know, the home or the office market isn't improving. There's a glut 98 00:08:31,279 --> 00:08:37,720 of apartments out there, so we're seeing price declines in multifamily apartments. So 99 00:08:37,799 --> 00:08:41,039 again, this is a problem that's kind of in the back burner, out 100 00:08:41,080 --> 00:08:45,360 of sight, out of mind, But I think as we get into next 101 00:08:45,399 --> 00:08:52,879 year it will become more important. And obviously if the economy slows, you 102 00:08:52,919 --> 00:08:56,720 know, it's only going to worsen that situation. You know, investors have 103 00:08:56,759 --> 00:08:58,639 been focusing when is the FED going to cut? When's the Fed going to 104 00:08:58,720 --> 00:09:03,000 cut? So I went back and if you go to scroll down just a 105 00:09:03,039 --> 00:09:07,120 little bit, and I went back to winter recession started, and then where 106 00:09:07,200 --> 00:09:11,279 was the SMP when the Fed made the first rate cut? And then what 107 00:09:11,480 --> 00:09:16,879 subsequently happened, and what it shows is going back to nineteen sixty nine. 108 00:09:16,519 --> 00:09:20,799 In each of these instances other than nineteen ninety eight, there were kind of 109 00:09:20,840 --> 00:09:24,720 some special circumstances that were going on in nineteen ninety eight, But what you 110 00:09:24,759 --> 00:09:30,759 can see is more than eighty percent of the decline and the average decline was 111 00:09:30,759 --> 00:09:33,519 about thirty eight percent in these bear markets, eighty percent of the decline of 112 00:09:33,559 --> 00:09:39,679 the SMP happened after the first rate cut. So the reason is the Fed 113 00:09:39,960 --> 00:09:45,799 historically has not cut rates just because inflation came down. They cut rates because 114 00:09:45,840 --> 00:09:50,039 the economy slowed, the unemployment rates started ticking up, and they cut rates 115 00:09:50,080 --> 00:09:54,559 in order to if you will, like catch up, play ketchup, and 116 00:09:54,799 --> 00:10:01,679 soften the slowdown in the economy. Of course, that has implications for earnings. 117 00:10:01,320 --> 00:10:05,600 Right now, Wall Street expects runings to be up this year and next. 118 00:10:05,000 --> 00:10:09,200 The PE ratio is elevated relative to the average over time, and so 119 00:10:09,399 --> 00:10:15,879 historically that's why you get these big declines in the market when it realizes, 120 00:10:16,000 --> 00:10:18,799 oh my goodness, the economy is slowing. We're going into a recession. 121 00:10:20,240 --> 00:10:26,519 So you know, again, from a statistical standpoint, we're seeing indications the 122 00:10:26,519 --> 00:10:30,240 economy is going to slow, and at some point in time, the Fed's 123 00:10:30,240 --> 00:10:33,840 going to respond to it. But if the economy subsequently goes into recession, 124 00:10:35,360 --> 00:10:39,960 it historically has been really bad news for the stock market. Okay, all 125 00:10:39,039 --> 00:10:45,879 right, so you're full of joy, right, bubbly news here? Well, 126 00:10:45,919 --> 00:10:48,960 no, you know what it is, you know, Kerry, is 127 00:10:48,440 --> 00:10:52,720 I want to keep my head on a swivel. And so whenever there's a 128 00:10:52,840 --> 00:10:58,600 narrative out there that's widely embraced, I always want to kind of say, 129 00:10:58,639 --> 00:11:01,279 all right, is it justified? And always, for a period of time, 130 00:11:01,720 --> 00:11:05,360 whatever the narrative, it is justified. But at some point in time, 131 00:11:05,000 --> 00:11:11,000 the narrative runs its course, and the way to avoid getting hurt in 132 00:11:11,039 --> 00:11:16,440 the stock market or other financial markets is to kind of see it coming. 133 00:11:16,240 --> 00:11:22,240 So technically I'll use this analogy. You know, all we drive SIXU eighted 134 00:11:22,759 --> 00:11:28,200 cylinder engines and cars, and if all the cylinders are working together, we 135 00:11:28,320 --> 00:11:31,279 got great pickup when we step on the gas. Few economy is pretty good. 136 00:11:33,000 --> 00:11:37,759 Everything's Colpus said it. But when one of the cylinders or two of 137 00:11:37,799 --> 00:11:43,159 the cylinders start being out of sync with the others, well, acceleration isn't 138 00:11:43,200 --> 00:11:48,399 so good. Fuel economy goes down, and ultimately the engine breaks down. 139 00:11:48,559 --> 00:11:54,320 So the point in the stock market is in a healthy market, the averages 140 00:11:54,360 --> 00:11:58,200 are either going all up together, we're going all down together. It's kind 141 00:11:58,200 --> 00:12:03,879 of like, okay, everything is in gear. At inflection points, things 142 00:12:03,879 --> 00:12:07,320 start to to burn. And when you're at a market high, yes, 143 00:12:07,600 --> 00:12:13,279 yeah, yeah, okay, agree, you're a market high. What happens 144 00:12:13,399 --> 00:12:18,320 is, Hey, what we're seeing is look at the semiconductors and what they've 145 00:12:18,360 --> 00:12:24,080 done from May fifteen until June eighteenth, and what we can see is up 146 00:12:24,200 --> 00:12:28,919 nineteen percent. In the meantime, the broad market the New York composite seventeen 147 00:12:30,000 --> 00:12:35,919 hundred stocks that's down. Value Lying composite seventeen hundred stocks that's down. So 148 00:12:35,960 --> 00:12:41,240 we're seeing a huge bifurcation. So everyone talking about the economies are okay, 149 00:12:41,039 --> 00:12:46,879 but the behavior of some of the broad market averages carry suggests that there's more 150 00:12:46,960 --> 00:12:50,960 concerned under the surface. And this kind of discrepancy is normally what we have 151 00:12:52,039 --> 00:13:00,399 seen historically at important market tops. Everyone's excited about it. Nvidia, get 152 00:13:00,399 --> 00:13:05,320 it? Artificial intelligence? Is you gonna change the way we live? It 153 00:13:05,600 --> 00:13:07,879 is already? Yeah? You know, I mean I didn't tell you this, 154 00:13:07,960 --> 00:13:11,360 but I made a bos that looks just like you, Jim, so 155 00:13:11,440 --> 00:13:15,399 I don't need to interview you anymore. Isn't going to be our last interview 156 00:13:15,440 --> 00:13:18,720 here, you'll see, right right, I'm sure that bottill be even smarter. 157 00:13:18,080 --> 00:13:22,279 You just let it know what I say, much, right, Just 158 00:13:22,360 --> 00:13:24,080 let it just tell it what to say it that it'll take care of every 159 00:13:24,120 --> 00:13:28,039 It'll just go from there. You know, you can just you know, 160 00:13:28,399 --> 00:13:31,639 I can put my feet up and in fact, great, Well, what 161 00:13:31,720 --> 00:13:37,360 I wanted to point out is semiconductor structure obviously critical and at the forefront of 162 00:13:37,559 --> 00:13:43,519 artificial intelligence. People can't buy enough of them type of thing. But semiconductors 163 00:13:43,759 --> 00:13:48,919 are hugely cyclical. So if we scro down just a little bit, there's 164 00:13:48,960 --> 00:13:54,919 a table showing how this semiconductor one more down so what you can see, 165 00:13:56,440 --> 00:13:58,240 you know, coming off the dot com bubble, I mean, the Internet 166 00:13:58,360 --> 00:14:03,240 was amazing, right, I mean, talk about how badly the economy would 167 00:14:03,240 --> 00:14:09,840 have been during the pandemic if we didn't have the technology that existed now to 168 00:14:09,919 --> 00:14:13,120 do zoom meetings, to be able to do ordering online, and all the 169 00:14:13,159 --> 00:14:18,080 rest of them. All Right, the Internet certainly fulfilled whatever the hopes and 170 00:14:18,159 --> 00:14:22,840 dreams were back in two thousand, But as the economy slowed, companies were 171 00:14:22,879 --> 00:14:28,279 forced to cut costs and they stopped spending as much money. So you had 172 00:14:28,320 --> 00:14:33,159 stocks that had a very high pe ratio because they were growing at thirty percent 173 00:14:33,240 --> 00:14:37,120 or more, and all of a sudden, that growth is accelerated rapidly. 174 00:14:37,320 --> 00:14:39,639 So in the two thousand and one recession, which was a very mild recession, 175 00:14:39,720 --> 00:14:45,679 I think with GDP was not like one point four percent, the semis 176 00:14:45,679 --> 00:14:50,879 were down eighty three percent. Two thousand and eight deeper economic contraction, SEMI 177 00:14:50,039 --> 00:14:56,679 is down sixty five percent. So my point is this enthusiasm for AI and 178 00:14:56,679 --> 00:15:01,480 the semiconductor stocks, I understand it, But at the same time, I 179 00:15:01,480 --> 00:15:05,480 think some of the people that are barely in this believe that it will be 180 00:15:05,679 --> 00:15:11,279 immune to the business cycle. I'm sorry, if you get a recession. 181 00:15:11,879 --> 00:15:16,679 No company is completely immune to the business cycle. So my bet is that 182 00:15:18,919 --> 00:15:22,840 as we slow down between now and your end, I think a recession becomes 183 00:15:22,840 --> 00:15:26,440 a higher probability next year. I think, you know, the order rate 184 00:15:26,559 --> 00:15:33,039 for computer chips is going to slow initially and then drop. The other thing 185 00:15:33,080 --> 00:15:37,519 I'll point out is in the last twelve months or so, I think companies 186 00:15:37,519 --> 00:15:43,320 have bought fifty billion dollars worth of chips from Nvidio. Yeah, but it's 187 00:15:43,440 --> 00:15:48,240 those chips by those companies only generated about three billion of revenue. So I 188 00:15:48,279 --> 00:15:54,320 think there's this window of time where all this enthusiasm, but then there's going 189 00:15:54,360 --> 00:16:00,559 to be a valley as people struggle to monetize what they spent. That it's 190 00:16:00,600 --> 00:16:08,240 going to take time to convert artificial intelligence to meaningful, real world positive outcomes. 191 00:16:08,679 --> 00:16:14,080 And during that window time, if I'm right, what's going to happen 192 00:16:14,080 --> 00:16:18,039 to the order book bring VIDI and the other semiconductor stuff skid. Right, 193 00:16:18,399 --> 00:16:25,159 It's going to skid absolutely, So that to me is the warning. And 194 00:16:25,320 --> 00:16:27,639 let's go down a little bit further. One thing, I don't remember if 195 00:16:27,639 --> 00:16:32,080 I put that in here or not. Maybe I did. We'll see, 196 00:16:32,879 --> 00:16:37,600 okay, Before we leave to the semiconductor issue, in Vidia had a key 197 00:16:37,639 --> 00:16:44,200 reversal on June twentieth, so did the semiconductor in this The last time that 198 00:16:44,279 --> 00:16:49,559 happened was March eighth, and it ushered in a correction that ultimately in Vidia 199 00:16:49,600 --> 00:16:53,200 dropped twenty two percent by mid April, and the semis I think we're down 200 00:16:53,440 --> 00:16:57,480 maybe eleven or twelve percent, So that key reversal we saw a couple of 201 00:16:57,519 --> 00:17:02,399 days ago. I think think is kind of a clearing call that, all 202 00:17:02,480 --> 00:17:10,640 right, we're going to see these stocks undergo a correction. Lagged performance in 203 00:17:10,720 --> 00:17:14,440 the russell and the value line and the broad market. I don't think we're 204 00:17:14,440 --> 00:17:19,240 going to be able to see a rotation that cleanly the baton gets passed. 205 00:17:19,920 --> 00:17:25,400 So I think everything is set up. I was looking in late March for 206 00:17:25,440 --> 00:17:29,720 a five to seven percent correction. The S and P drop five point seven 207 00:17:29,799 --> 00:17:36,519 percent. I think we're close to something similar Kerrie over the next handful of 208 00:17:36,599 --> 00:17:42,759 weeks. So if I go back to the ancient era of Alan Greenspan, 209 00:17:44,279 --> 00:17:48,440 you would call this a rational exuberance. And it looks like it's coming to 210 00:17:48,480 --> 00:17:53,640 an end. Yeah, I think so. I mean again, at least 211 00:17:53,640 --> 00:18:00,000 in the short term, and then we'll see how the market corrects the pattern 212 00:18:00,079 --> 00:18:04,319 that develops to be able to disturn. All right, Is this just another 213 00:18:04,359 --> 00:18:07,960 correction like the one in April and we're going to have another rally to higher 214 00:18:08,039 --> 00:18:11,640 highs or is it going to be more menacing? I can't know that right 215 00:18:11,680 --> 00:18:15,839 now. All I know is the warning signs in terms of the divergencies with 216 00:18:15,920 --> 00:18:22,160 the marketing average is and the advanced decline line hasn't confirmed this new hive. 217 00:18:22,599 --> 00:18:26,880 Same thing happened in January twenty twenty two October two thousand and seven, and 218 00:18:26,920 --> 00:18:30,839 there's many other instances going back. So the table set, it really all 219 00:18:30,839 --> 00:18:37,079 comes down to carry does a reason to sell materialize whatever it may be, 220 00:18:37,079 --> 00:18:45,079 because the weakness of the market internally tells us that it'll struggle to deal with 221 00:18:45,119 --> 00:18:48,599 an increase in selling pressure. And that's the setup. Now it's just a 222 00:18:48,680 --> 00:18:52,960 question of what how important the reason to sell is. So we can look 223 00:18:52,960 --> 00:18:57,839 at gold in some of the markets and we could have liquidity issues that force 224 00:18:59,319 --> 00:19:04,759 liquidation in the stock market. We know when there's a liquidity matter, liquidity 225 00:19:04,920 --> 00:19:11,240 event, that the first thing people dump are stocks, right well, especially 226 00:19:11,319 --> 00:19:15,880 the heighthly liquid stocks, you know, and liquid the better. Yeah, 227 00:19:15,960 --> 00:19:18,440 And eventually you get down to the over owned stocks and when they go down 228 00:19:18,559 --> 00:19:22,920 enough, you know it's like get me out, all right. So in 229 00:19:22,000 --> 00:19:26,519 terms of gold, you know, the bigger picture is from the low at 230 00:19:26,519 --> 00:19:32,920 eighteen twelve, I think gold has had three waves up and we're in the 231 00:19:32,920 --> 00:19:38,440 middle of a wave for correction. We had a fake out where gold hopped 232 00:19:38,480 --> 00:19:44,960 above for one day, that upper declining red tround line reversed down on Friday, 233 00:19:45,799 --> 00:19:49,400 and I think the odds are gold is going to trade below the twenty 234 00:19:49,440 --> 00:19:52,759 two eighty two and we could see it as low as like twenty two p 235 00:19:53,000 --> 00:19:57,759 five based on retlacement levels and salt port. But once this correction is overcarry, 236 00:19:57,799 --> 00:20:02,720 I think we're going to see gold rally to the new all time high 237 00:20:03,119 --> 00:20:08,559 above twenty five hundred and potentially higher than that and taking one step at time. 238 00:20:10,000 --> 00:20:14,359 So how long you think that's going to be. Jim, My guess 239 00:20:14,440 --> 00:20:17,839 is gold will bottom in the next sixty days. That it could be thirty 240 00:20:17,920 --> 00:20:22,680 days that this correction. You know, we're nearing the end of the correction. 241 00:20:22,039 --> 00:20:27,720 I just think there's like one final wash here. As gold takes out 242 00:20:27,720 --> 00:20:33,000 that prior low, it's going to hit stops and so forth. But my 243 00:20:33,079 --> 00:20:38,039 point is, rather than being intimidated by it, it's an opportunity in my 244 00:20:38,160 --> 00:20:45,119 view, to be a buyer. The gold stocks very similar in the sense 245 00:20:45,200 --> 00:20:48,559 that if I'm right about gold pulling back, the gold stocks is measured by 246 00:20:48,599 --> 00:20:53,240 gd X the ETF. I think we'll have a period of weakness and then 247 00:20:53,279 --> 00:20:56,920 as you can see up there. I'm giving some instructions in terms of buying 248 00:20:57,119 --> 00:21:02,960 IAU, which is the goal ETF, because I'm going to be a buyer 249 00:21:03,240 --> 00:21:10,359 on the upcoming weakness and scale in a little bit based on gold drops below 250 00:21:10,519 --> 00:21:12,839 twenty two eighty two? Does it get down to twenty two forty? Okay, 251 00:21:12,880 --> 00:21:17,480 you want to buy someone? I like that chart. I do like 252 00:21:17,559 --> 00:21:25,160 it. Kind of cup and handle. You know, we saw the handle 253 00:21:25,240 --> 00:21:32,160 in gold and in silver, so you know now it's going to retrace a 254 00:21:32,200 --> 00:21:37,000 bit right kind of Yeah, yeah, I'm breadless, it's out. I 255 00:21:37,039 --> 00:21:40,640 didn't hit it here, mollis. Yeah. Yeah, they had a big 256 00:21:41,119 --> 00:21:45,759 cart and people got really bullish, you know, a month or two ago 257 00:21:45,200 --> 00:21:49,200 the double topped. Also yeah, and that you know from a tick issues, 258 00:21:49,319 --> 00:21:52,400 Oh okay, that looks ominous and so forth. You know. So 259 00:21:52,480 --> 00:21:57,119 again just from a price pattern standpoint, yeah, I think that really is 260 00:21:57,279 --> 00:22:03,160 looking chart. It's correct for a way four and wave five if items at 261 00:22:03,160 --> 00:22:10,400 twenty two to fifty twenty five fifty or higher becoming Yeah, and the gold 262 00:22:10,440 --> 00:22:14,839 stocks and you know I've really been lagging from yeah oh wow, yeah, 263 00:22:15,319 --> 00:22:18,400 well, and I think there's a catch up trade coming there and if you 264 00:22:18,480 --> 00:22:22,000 go down to a little bit further, uh carry, And of course this 265 00:22:22,119 --> 00:22:25,759 is going to be I think on your website so people can read all this 266 00:22:25,799 --> 00:22:30,000 step from They'll have a link in the shout out so you can download Jim's 267 00:22:30,039 --> 00:22:36,680 report and you know, get the ball belong on the podcast. Yeah. 268 00:22:36,759 --> 00:22:40,720 So anyway, I think GDX can drop to the low between thirty two and 269 00:22:40,759 --> 00:22:44,680 thirty two and a half. Thirty one and a half is possible based on 270 00:22:44,720 --> 00:22:49,680 a retracement of the big move from twenty five to thirty seven. I think 271 00:22:51,160 --> 00:22:56,000 Kimra or whatever your trace room was, whether it was fifty percent. That 272 00:22:56,119 --> 00:23:00,720 sounds about right, Mandy, Yeah six bucks, yea, yeah, it'd 273 00:23:00,759 --> 00:23:06,920 be fifty percent of retracement. But again, I think this weakness is a 274 00:23:06,920 --> 00:23:12,039 buying opportunity, and ultimately I think the next rally will take out the thirty 275 00:23:12,079 --> 00:23:18,200 seven dollars high that we saw or six weeks ago, and there was a 276 00:23:18,279 --> 00:23:23,200 hind going back a little bit further near forty one. So I think GDX 277 00:23:23,279 --> 00:23:29,279 is setting up a nice entry point or a rally that ultimately I think will 278 00:23:29,319 --> 00:23:32,920 take it up towards forty one, forty to forty one, So that'd be 279 00:23:32,920 --> 00:23:37,720 a pretty nice trade. So I wish you had a new months shorten there 280 00:23:37,880 --> 00:23:44,079 because Newmont's due to report some monster earnings because the price of gold has got 281 00:23:44,160 --> 00:23:49,240 up over two hundred and fifty dollars even if it's partly hedged since their last 282 00:23:49,240 --> 00:23:56,119 earnings report where it was like around nineteen hundred something, and their earnings are 283 00:23:56,119 --> 00:24:00,720 going up and the stock is doing absolutely nothing here. Yeah, I think 284 00:24:00,799 --> 00:24:04,599 one thing that's happened, Carrie, is money that maybe in the past would 285 00:24:04,640 --> 00:24:11,599 have traded the medals as well as the metal stocks is trading bitcoin. People 286 00:24:11,640 --> 00:24:15,359 are looking for action, okay in the past, Hey you want a beta, 287 00:24:15,559 --> 00:24:22,200 go buy you a gold stock or buy sold okay. TLT. I 288 00:24:22,079 --> 00:24:26,839 turned positive on TLT over the last couple of months. On average, we're 289 00:24:27,000 --> 00:24:32,920 long at around ninety one dollars of TLT. Again, my supposition is the 290 00:24:32,920 --> 00:24:38,920 economy is going to slow more than expected. That TLT declined from one seventy 291 00:24:40,079 --> 00:24:47,599 nine in BArch of twenty twenty forty in October of last year. So again, 292 00:24:47,640 --> 00:24:49,279 a three eight two retlacement I get you up to about one nineteen. 293 00:24:51,400 --> 00:24:55,319 So the initial rally went from eighty two to one hundred. That's eighteen bucks. 294 00:24:55,519 --> 00:24:57,200 You had eighteen bucks to eighty seven, you're at one oh five. 295 00:25:00,160 --> 00:25:06,799 So I think PLT is going higher, but at a minimum it should in 296 00:25:06,920 --> 00:25:11,079 terms of from the low in October of twenty three, get an A wave 297 00:25:11,160 --> 00:25:15,559 up to one hundred, a B wave down to one hundred or partly eighty 298 00:25:15,599 --> 00:25:18,960 seven and change. I think we're at the beginning of a C wave that 299 00:25:19,039 --> 00:25:25,480 will take TLT above the prior high at one hundred point five seven and potentially 300 00:25:25,599 --> 00:25:27,960 up to one oh five to one oh nine. And if the economy really 301 00:25:27,960 --> 00:25:36,480 goes into recession, that one nineteen number is a possibility. So yeah, 302 00:25:36,640 --> 00:25:42,400 I mean just again, make yeah longer term. I'mbarissed bonds, and the 303 00:25:42,440 --> 00:25:47,680 reason being is when it went from US seventy nine to eighty two, and 304 00:25:47,799 --> 00:25:51,440 I've got reports if anybody wants to see all this good stuff, it will 305 00:25:51,559 --> 00:25:56,160 decline in five waves. For me, that means the major trend in bond 306 00:25:56,240 --> 00:26:00,799 prices is down and yields are up. But after a five weight move, 307 00:26:00,839 --> 00:26:03,680 you're always going to get a retracement move, and that's where in the middle 308 00:26:03,720 --> 00:26:08,119 of that retlacement move. God, if we get a recession, the deficit 309 00:26:08,200 --> 00:26:11,400 is going to go from you know, one point nine trie into probably three 310 00:26:11,480 --> 00:26:15,519 tride. So the amount of supply the bond market is going to have to 311 00:26:15,559 --> 00:26:19,759 handle and the next recession and beyond, I think it can be able to 312 00:26:19,960 --> 00:26:22,960 yeah, exactly, Yeah, and that's why yields can go out. Yeah. 313 00:26:23,039 --> 00:26:27,079 Can you spell monetize? Good luck? You know? All right, 314 00:26:27,279 --> 00:26:33,839 So we got one more dollar real quick. That red shread line is just 315 00:26:34,319 --> 00:26:38,359 you know that one oh, it's I think a one oh six twenty five. 316 00:26:38,880 --> 00:26:42,640 We're flirting with that. So I've been looking for the dollar to top 317 00:26:42,680 --> 00:26:47,279 and roll over. But what's going on in Europe, But the French elections 318 00:26:47,519 --> 00:26:52,079 has caused the year old to be quite weak. It's fifty seven percent of 319 00:26:52,119 --> 00:26:56,039 the dollar index. The elections are going to be held June thirtieth and July 320 00:26:56,200 --> 00:27:02,279 seventh. So to me, if the dollar closes above that trend line again, 321 00:27:02,559 --> 00:27:06,440 that would not be good for gold. I don't think it's not good 322 00:27:06,440 --> 00:27:10,200 for the US economy. So to me, the dollars at kind of a 323 00:27:10,240 --> 00:27:15,640 critical lever level here up around one oh five seventy five. All right, 324 00:27:15,920 --> 00:27:18,000 all right, there's one more thing on the S and P. If we 325 00:27:18,039 --> 00:27:21,720 can just out do it real quick, Okay, sure, Well I'm looking 326 00:27:21,759 --> 00:27:25,079 for based on all this stuff we talked earlier, I think the S and 327 00:27:25,160 --> 00:27:29,200 P is set up for a five to seven percent correction or some price targets 328 00:27:29,359 --> 00:27:33,319 mentioned here. I think there's a shot carry that you could see one more 329 00:27:33,400 --> 00:27:37,519 rally above fifty five oh five to complete the move up from last April's low, 330 00:27:40,160 --> 00:27:42,319 and I think that would be a place to go short. All right, 331 00:27:42,640 --> 00:27:48,839 excellent here, really good info here. I've known you long enough to 332 00:27:48,960 --> 00:27:53,559 know that you know you're right a lot more often than you're wrong, and 333 00:27:55,680 --> 00:28:00,000 I think it's a reasonable analysis. One thing we didn't talk about don't really 334 00:28:00,200 --> 00:28:06,160 want to, of course, is the election and what's happening there, because 335 00:28:06,200 --> 00:28:10,440 that all figures into this. But maybe in ways we're not totally clear about 336 00:28:10,519 --> 00:28:12,880 right now, Hey, make sure you go over to Jim's site the links 337 00:28:12,920 --> 00:28:18,119 in the show notes of this interview on Financial Survival Network dot com. When 338 00:28:18,119 --> 00:28:22,920 you're there, sign up for your free newsletter and it's macrotides dot com. 339 00:28:22,039 --> 00:28:26,440 Questions, comments, et cetera. Kl at Carrie LUTs dot com. Jim, 340 00:28:26,640 --> 00:28:30,799 appreciate your sharing this with us. Again. The link is in the 341 00:28:30,839 --> 00:28:38,079 show notes to this interview to download Jim's report the PDF, and Jim provides 342 00:28:38,119 --> 00:28:41,880 that to you Gratus, and you might want to take a closer look at 343 00:28:41,920 --> 00:28:48,839 macrotides. Jim appreciate it all, and let me stop the share and we 344 00:28:48,920 --> 00:28:55,240 will everybody can get a good look at two good looking older gentlemen. Yeah, 345 00:28:55,279 --> 00:28:59,920 well that's it, especially that, right, yeah, the gentleman, 346 00:29:00,079 --> 00:29:03,759 right, not the older part. Yeah, well, well let's not talk 347 00:29:03,799 --> 00:29:10,039 about that. Yes, anything is like the economy and the market going down. 348 00:29:10,240 --> 00:29:14,559 I don't want to talk about my physical presence. They used to call 349 00:29:14,680 --> 00:29:19,880 that piling on in football, you know. Yeah, fifteen, I'm good, 350 00:29:21,160 --> 00:29:23,640 all right, Jim, A month or two be well, sounds good 351 00:29:23,680 --> 00:29:30,359 YouTube. Thanks for listening to carry Letz's Financial Survival Network, your solution to 352 00:29:30,440 --> 00:29:34,960 today's trying times. For the latest, go to Financial Survivalnetwork dot com. 353 00:29:34,960 --> 00:29:38,799 Financial Survival Network now more than ever.