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So a lot of the market right
now is expecting the interest rates to draw.

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Why, because this is what the
Fed has done, at least over

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the last forty years. We get
into financial trouble, they dropped the interest

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rate. The challenge is is that
Powell recognizes the vulgar mistake that was made.

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The vulgars thought that the inflation was
going down. He went down with

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it, and then ultimately inflation took
off and went through the roof and we

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had to you know, Jack the
tenure treasury up to almost sixteen percent back

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in September nineteen eighty one. And
so there's a big mistake that he's certainly

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trying to ignore. You are listening
to Carrie Letz's Financial Survival Network, where

10
00:00:37,960 --> 00:00:43,439
you get valuable information you just can't
find anywhere else to thrive in today's trying

11
00:00:43,479 --> 00:00:49,079
times. You need the Financial Survival
Network now more than ever. Go to

12
00:00:49,159 --> 00:00:55,920
Financial Survivalnetwork dot com and get your
free newsletter and gift. Financial Survival Network

13
00:00:56,359 --> 00:01:03,680
now more than ever, And welcome
you are watching and listening to the Financial

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00:01:03,719 --> 00:01:08,879
Survival Network. I'm your host,
Carrie Lutz is eleven twelve, twenty three

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and hey, lot's happening will this
be a crash month? Will October be

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the nail in the coffin of the
US and global stock markets? I'm beginning

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to think not every day that goes
by is another day the crash hasn't occurred.

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But one thing that's happening is inflation. And it just reminds me of

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a commercial from McDonald's where this little
kid goes, daddy, what's inflation and

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he says, well, son,
inflation is when the price of everything goes

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up and your daddy's salary stays the
same and actually could be going down.

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So, hey, inflation. We
get a CPI print today, and well,

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David Strzuski is with us now,
David, so what do we make

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of the latest CPI number? Well, as far as the CPI goes,

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I think there's a few things that
we should really be paying attention to right

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now. Number one is that the
CPI is not necessarily reflective of what the

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average individual is experiencing with their purchasing
power. So the example you just gave

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was great, Hey, daddy,
why is everything getting so expensive? Because

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I'm making the same amount and we've
got some challenges here, and so you

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know what we have right now?
Is a challenge with printing and spending that

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the government's doing. I believe the
FED has their thesis completely backwards. They

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believe that there's so much money chasing
too few of items out there. That

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was certainly true under COVID when we
had all that gridlock there in the supply

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chain. But today, the average
family is putting more on the credit card

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right now just to afford day to
day life because we've not necessarily had you

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know, responsible fiscal policy modeled for
us by the government or even the large

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financial institutions. We just spent put
more on the card and on we go.

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And so as we're looking at our
CPI numbers right now, numbers came

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in hotter than expected, and so
I was expecting that that would occur.

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I thought it would actually be a
little bit higher. And the reason why

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it didn't actually go up as high
as I thought it would be was actually

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because the US dollar is stronger this
month than it was last month. And

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actually, if we have a stronger
dollar, that means that our dollars go

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further, at least on the producer
side and with more international type of exposure.

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But we have you know, a
higher read Another thing to note about

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CPI is that we're not going back
to pre twenty twenty prices. This means

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increases from this moment forward. That
spells big problems right now for the average

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family who's making fifty to seventy five
thousand dollars a year. You're trying to

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figure out, you know, how
to make ends meet a long time ago.

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And now we're experiencing higher oil prices
and you know, really as well,

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over three hundred union shutdowns this year
alone, which is ultimately going to

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you know, be resulting in higher
prices. Why because the pricing power of

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these companies has to raise the price
to the consumer if they have to pay

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more per hour, bigger benefits,
less work hours, whatever the situation might

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be. But there are workers striking
all over the place because they do not

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have enough pricing power. So I
think that the CPI is going to continue

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to go up. We've seen it
actually since June. It started ticking back

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up. July it was up,
August was up, Septembers now up.

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And so that's called a trend.
And so when we see one happen,

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it's not necessarily a trend. Four
consecutive that would be a trend that's developed

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in now. They will also say
that, you know, when you you

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know, get out at energy and
food prices, you know that that came

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down point one percent this last year
or sorry, this last month, if

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the end, and so exactly.
And I again, they manipulate these figures

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and they don't necessarily reflect the average
person's personal CPI. What are they actually

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spending on. No one's buying a
house every month as an example. But

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housing prices are the reason why you
know the CPI is rising because you know,

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it's never been more expensive to own
a house. So anyway, this

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is just new inflation that's that's being
added because of the print and spend economics

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that President Biden has has ultimately been
authorizing and Congress has been allowing. And

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you know, we find ourselves at
a really weird place here today, Carrie,

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which might we might go into,
you know, talking about, you

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know, what the Fed might do
next, but also the fact that you

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know, the House is in disarray, and we've got to November fifteenth to

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you know, to not be on
this you know, punted time frame for

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the government shut down. We got
to pass twelve budgets. We've got to

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get a new Speaker of the House. And oh, by the way,

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there's impeachment proceedings against President Biden that
are going on that look quite nefigurious.

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So you know, there's a lot
that's that's taking place right now, and

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I think that we're going to see
a lot change here in the next forty

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five days. Isn't that his son's
name nefarious? I think that might be

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his middle name, Hunter Nefarius Biden
to have that, right, Yeah,

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I think that might be right.
All right, So most protected man in

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the world, really, I mean, this guy's gotten away with so much.

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I'll go back to Winston Churchill.
He said God looks after children drunks

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in the United States of America.
Hey, well, and said, your

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lips to God's ears. As long
as he's still looking after us right now,

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I need him, so I needed
With what's going on, I think

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he might have even given up on
us. But hey, let's not get

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religious here. There's enough economic things
to make your head spin. Numbers coming

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up, and what you're expecting here, David, Okay, Well, so

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what I'm expecting next is that you
know, the feed is going to be

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meeting here again. So we've had
eleven rate hikes. You know, are

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they going to go up a quarter
point more? I don't think so.

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You know, the five point five
you know, increases that they've done haven't

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necessarily, you know, brought inflation
down yet. And I believe that it's

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actually the case could be made that
we've actually lost the inflation battle. And

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by the way, we didn't even
get PCEE, you know, the Fed's

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favorite indicator, didn't even get below
four yet. You know, we're running

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out of time for this lag effect
to kick in. And it's a big

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problem because Powell was eighteen months late
essentially in acting on this inflation. Hey,

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it's transitory, et cetera, et
cetera. So I think that he's

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had it wrong the whole time.
And his biggest mistake is that he hasn't

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even talked to Congress about their deficit
spending and you know, and said to

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them, you guys, you can't
keep doing this. It's it's counterintuitive to

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what I'm trying to do. So
a lot of the market right now is

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expecting the interest rates to draw why, because this is what the Fed has

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done at least over the last forty
years. We get into financial trouble,

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they dropped the interest rate. The
challenge is is that Powell recognizes the Vulcar

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mistake that was made. You know, they Vulcars thought that, you know,

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the inflation was going down. He
went down with it, and then

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ultimately inflation took off and went through
the roof and we had to you know,

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jack the tenure treasury up to almost
sixteen percent back in September nineteen eighty

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one. And so there's a big
mistake that he's certainly trying to ignore.

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And I don't think that he's going
to move on further rate increases until,

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you know, until we really see
a trend developed. But you know,

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we were supposed to be an easing
already, Carrie, it was supposed to

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happen back in July. So I
listen, bring the higher for longer revelation.

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Yeah, where's the Powell pivot when
you need it? Yeah, there's

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no more Powell pivot right now.
That Powell pivot would be only as a

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result of significant job losses, which
if you can just give me two seconds

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on that. I have some stats
that I don't think many people are aware

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of. One of those things is
that if you just look at the raw

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data and I don't have it in
front of me right here, but you

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can look this up if we don't
use the seasonally adjust jobs numbers that just

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came out, but we just look
at the raw numbers. Do you know

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that we lost over eight hundred thousand
jobs just this last month. That was

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the highest amount of losses that we
had since April twenty twenty. April twenty

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twenty was the middle of COVID,
That's what all these job losses were occurring.

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And so you know, so here
we are with eight hundred thousand it's

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like eight sixty maybe thousand losses,
and then we had you know, one

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point one million gains, but most
of those were part time work. This

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is people taking second or maybe even
third jobs. That's not healthy a healthy

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economy. It's also a lot easier
to take a job than it is to

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create a job. So if you're
letting go of all these employees, I'm

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telling you right now, we are
not in a position as a nation just

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say, man, this is a
healthy place. We're going to see this

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bull really come back here with strength. People are taking those second and third

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jobs that they really don't want.
I mean, no one wants to work

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a second or third, but they're
going to because they need to have for

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their life. They don't want to
foreclose their house, et cetera. So

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the system's getting repriced right now with
this, this this big credit change,

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with interest rates raising and yet to
David, you know, the real estate

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market continuing, prices going up in
most markets across the country, inventory being

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at an all time low. Obviously, many of you in there are locked

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into your three percent mortgages. Like
imagine that a mortgage becomes an asset and

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a millstone around your neck. So
interesting. You know, we sit at

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opposite sides of the table for a
bank, you know, our liability,

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the mortgage is their asset. That's
it. Yeah, And so in twenty

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twenty, twenty twenty one, fifty
percent of homeowners in America refinanced at three

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percent rates. Well, those three
percent rates are far below what inflation is

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running at right now and what you
should be getting for longer term thirty year

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00:11:01,759 --> 00:11:03,279
investments of capital. I mean,
we just saw the thirty year you know,

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hit five percent, sixteen year high
this last week, and so you

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00:11:09,480 --> 00:11:13,440
know, this is not good for
the banks. Additionally, there's not a

156
00:11:13,480 --> 00:11:16,960
lot of new money going into the
banks right now. So not only do

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I personally anticipate a recession that's going
to begin, you know, probably first

158
00:11:20,320 --> 00:11:24,799
maybe second quarter next year, but
I'm also expecting that we're going to see

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this simultaneously happen with a financial crisis
in banking. Now, recessions come and

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go, financial crisises, these are
bigger shifts, and it really comes down

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to the money supply and how this
all works. But the banks can't compete

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00:11:37,240 --> 00:11:41,720
with the ten year treasury or with
the Treasury in general. Why because the

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Treasury is paying higher than point zero
one to nothing. They ensure more than

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00:11:45,759 --> 00:11:48,440
two hundred and fifty thousand that a
bank insurres. They ensure an indefinite amount

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00:11:48,440 --> 00:11:54,039
of money. The banks are just
money's getting sucked out, and they've been

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00:11:54,120 --> 00:11:58,240
leveraging up ten to one. And
so this is where I'm concerned. You

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know, you're down in Florida and
everything's still going up in the real estate

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00:12:01,240 --> 00:12:03,360
market. I'm in Washington State,
where the real estate market was so hot.

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I mean we literally led the nation, I believe through twenty and nineteen

170
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as far as where I specifically live
lived. But right right now we're seeing

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a stalled out, you know,
real estate market. I'm looking at houses

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00:12:18,919 --> 00:12:22,639
that are sitting there there in that
one hundred days now, and the only

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people that can really borrow are those
who don't need to borrow. You know,

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00:12:26,360 --> 00:12:30,759
you got plenty of cash to maybe
even buy it in cash, and

175
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the banks are being just real picky
eaters right now. I also talked to

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by Bank of America loan guy here
the other day and he said an average

177
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rate that he was getting for his
clients was better than eight percent, a

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little bit higher than eight percent.
And I said, how many out of

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ten that you believe could qualify or
should qualify are actually getting their mortgages?

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00:12:50,399 --> 00:12:54,919
He said, seven are probably not
getting their mortgages. Only three or thirty

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00:12:54,919 --> 00:12:58,000
percent of applicants that he was specifically
working with or getting mortgages today. So

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00:12:58,039 --> 00:13:03,480
even if you wanted about, it's
really challenging to do. So this is

183
00:13:03,559 --> 00:13:07,159
not a great moment in that.
But real estate's a lagging indicator. It's

184
00:13:07,159 --> 00:13:09,279
a slower mover because you know,
it takes time to get a house to

185
00:13:09,360 --> 00:13:13,039
market, it takes time people to
find, it takes time to the finance,

186
00:13:13,080 --> 00:13:16,320
et cetera. So it's a it
takes a minute for that one to

187
00:13:16,320 --> 00:13:20,840
show up. Yeah, the only
point I'd make is the fact is the

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00:13:20,919 --> 00:13:26,679
migration which is fed the demand in
the South. And we're not just talking

189
00:13:26,720 --> 00:13:35,559
Florida, We're talking Texas, We're
talking our Mississippian Georgia, the Carolina Tennessee,

190
00:13:35,840 --> 00:13:39,480
all these Tennessee continue. Yeah,
nobody really moves to Kentucky unless they

191
00:13:39,519 --> 00:13:46,320
like bourbon a lot. But seriously, those people who are selling in the

192
00:13:46,080 --> 00:13:50,399
in the failing states and cities don't
care about the rate. They're willing to

193
00:13:50,440 --> 00:13:56,679
pay eight percent mortgage rates to get
out of Dodge. That's what's different than

194
00:13:56,720 --> 00:14:00,960
any other market we've ever seen.
So assuming they can call they got good

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00:14:01,000 --> 00:14:05,120
credit, you know, they sold
their home. They're getting out of Dodge.

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00:14:05,679 --> 00:14:09,080
That's what's feeding the demand here.
And honestly, David, I don't

197
00:14:09,120 --> 00:14:16,039
see anything that's going to stop that
trend unless these failed cities and states do

198
00:14:16,440 --> 00:14:24,120
little things like prosecute to shoplifters and
prosecute to criminals and have crackdowns. Right

199
00:14:24,720 --> 00:14:28,720
I thought that's what our system was
supposed to be doing. Anyway, right

200
00:14:28,080 --> 00:14:31,919
now, we were this nation of
rural law, and that's why we were

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00:14:31,960 --> 00:14:35,519
the helping stem. We have it
own wusiness with you got it all wrong.

202
00:14:35,120 --> 00:14:41,679
The criminals are victims, okay,
and we need to make sure that

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00:14:41,720 --> 00:14:46,240
their needs are met. You know, So the criminals need to be coddled

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and they need to be encouraged to
continue their criminal pursuits. And that's exactly

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the policies. And then they can't
figure out why people are leaving, why

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downtown San Francisco is a ghost city. You know what was encouraging David There

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was just a law past that,
uh that the erstwhile moronic governor of the

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of California I won't I won't mention
his name signed which forces people, uh

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who are homeless or on drugs to
either get treatment or go to jail.

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Okay. So yeah, I think
that we're there's a huge mental health pandemic

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that's taking place right now, whether
we're talking to oh wow, you know,

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people that are confused about other areas
or other things. We've got setting

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all touring over our border right now, very powerful stuff. And so go

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to rehab or go to jail.
I mean, that's that's a you know,

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we need to probably make ultimatums like
that on some level. But at

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the same time, how does that
actually benefit somebody. I think there might

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be some better approaches here in the
twenty first century how to get I take

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it to some of this. We
need to treat these things for what they

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are, mental health, crisis,
addiction, whatever it is, whether it's

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alcohol, drugs or whatever is that's
right, is a mental health issue,

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not a criminal issue. Okay,
becomes criminal when you steal this support your

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habit. But were they to treat
it that way, that would mean the

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price of illicit drugs would go way
way down, and it would kill the

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profit in the market. And I'm
convinced the powers that beat don't want that

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under any circumstances. David, Well, the other thing is that you know

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Newsstem's got some law where you can
steal up to one thousand dollars per occurrence.

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Go do it several times per day. We're not even going to charge

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you. So we're encouraging people right
now with how we write the law I

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just signed last night, you know
the little deal outside the grocery store.

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Washington State's done some weird stuff as
well. We no longer allow our police

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officers to pursue people that they've turned
on the lights that pull over after a

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mile they got to let them go. We're literally encouraging people, Well,

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hey, just don't pull over and
you won't get a ticket. Or if

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you've got drugs in the car,
you're doing whatever, just don't even don't

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even do it. Ignore them.
Yeah, have a card shop. How

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is that going to help out?
Have a car chase? Exactly? That's

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called life imitating cops. Well,
we got to let it go at that.

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If you've got a question, Comma
David or myself. The email address

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is Kitty l at Kerrie Lutz dot
com. David, tell us your website

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where we find you. Link will
be in the show notes of this interview

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on Financial Survival Network dot com.
Yeah, my organizations called Sound Planning Group

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MYSPG dot com is is our website. We've got a lot of great resources

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up there. I've got classes and
different things that I teach about out of

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the line of portfolio today given where
we are right now, some of the

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things we just discussed. But Carrie, it's always a pleasure to be with

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you here and you know, looking
forward to doing it again in the future.

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Oh yeah, we'll probably talk to
you next month when more numbers come

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out and more depression sets in Hey, if we can manage to get through

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October without a crash, yeah,
I think we're doing pretty good. It

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would be uh yeah, I mean, I think if we can get through

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November fifteenth, which is when that
you know, we've got to have a

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House speaker, we got to get
stuff passed or the government shuts down.

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I think that's the big one.
And you know, Moody's is now looking

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at downgrading US as a nation.
So those are my big you know,

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kind of wave points here coming up
in the next thirty days or so.

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All right, Matt, Hey,
be well, thanks a lot, all

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right, you too, take care. Thanks for listening to carry Letz's Financial

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00:18:25,599 --> 00:18:30,799
Survival Network, your solution to today's
trying times. For the latest, go

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00:18:30,880 --> 00:18:37,359
to Financial Survivalnetwork dot com. Financial
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