Hello everyone, and welcome to the latest episode of Hardwood Knocks. This is
Outam Promill here with my fantastic co host Dan fa Valley, and today we're
going to be covering one interesting springboard stat if you want to call it that,
for each and every team in the Eastern Conference. So Dan and I
are going to alternate teams and we came in with these stats are current where
necessary, going into games played on Monday night, and kind of using these
as launching pads for bigger conversations about the teams for specific players, again focusing
only on the Eastern Conference. Before I kick it over to Dan, I
do want to encourage everyone to subscribe, rate review wherever you find this podcast.
We're available pretty much everywhere at this point. And also go ahead and
take some time and find us on YouTube. It's under Hardwood Knox and subscribe
there. We're trying really hard to get to over a thousand subscribers so that
we can start monetizing some of these videos and put out even more content.
And each everyone is very much appreciated. So with that out of the way,
how's it going, Dan? I am doing better than Royce O'Neil.
I actually just watched him get need in the O'Neills before we started podcasting,
so in the Utah Jazz game against the Spurs, so hopefully he's okay.
But other than that, I am grand how by yourself, as you can
probably tell, I am trying to fight through a sickness here. My voice
is going in and out a little bit here. I have tested negative for
COVID, so I'm pleased with that, and just dealing with some sort of
cold or flu or something. But I'm just gonna consider this my flu podcast.
Just gonna channel the inner Michael Jordan and just you know, talk the
hell out of it. I mean, you're calling your shot here, so
you better bring your a game as you as you fire up the Atlanta Hawks
stat machine. Yeah, so I think with the Hawks, I wanted to
focus on what I thought was the most important barometer of their progress between last
season and this season. So my numbers is minus four point zero and that's
their net rating without Trey Young on the floor per Basketball Reference. It was
supposed to improve this season just with the additions that they made with Delon Wright,
with Sharif Cooper coming in, with a bunch of wings who could still
handle the ball and provide that secondary creation that this team needs to thrive with
Trey Young still doing so much, and that hasn't been the case. For
reference, last year's number without him on the court was minus one point eight.
So this is trending in the wrong direction. And I can't quite tell
if I view that as a positive or a negative because the Hawks, much
like so many other teams, have struggled with continuity. They've had so many
players entering the COVID nineteen protocols, They've had a lot of injuries to deal
with. Is this something that we can expect to regress positively to a more
reasonable number that's at least comparable to last year's or is this a red flag
that this team is not constructed to go beyond where it got last season with
an Eastern Conference Finals appearance. So you're viewing it as a positive in a
sense that this tells them they're not at that level and they will proceed to
act accordingly. If that is the case. I wonder how they act accordingly.
Is it a consolidation trade. No, I'm genuinely I'm genuinely waffling between
it being a positive and a negative, And I think It's probably a little
of both, where the circumstances of this season have made it harder for them
to work those new additions into the lineup, again referring to Write and Shreef
Cooper, I think the talent is still there where this weakness could be addressed.
It just hasn't happened yet, and the Hawks have been mediocre as a
result. So I'm very much on the fence. I could I could be
swayed either way, because I think it's it's indicative of the struggles, but
not necessarily telling about the future. I get that I'd be curious to see
what that number was before they suffered. They're beat down by the Knicks,
which he did not play in, so I'm sure those numbers might actually skewing
even further towards the negative. But they have not made They've been one of
the most disappointing NBA teams this season, and I think there's you could pinpoint
a number of things Clint Coupella start. It's their defense has been god awful
for most of the season. They've been awful in the fourth quarter as well,
and I do think even the fourth quarter sort of telltale of them having
those bench of a units out there to start. There needs to be a
way to figure those things out, and I think I tend to lean towards
they need a consolidation trade. I don't know if they'll act that way.
And it's so tough with Cam Reddish, he's in and out of the rumor
mill, but it's at this point he's consistently healthier than DeAndre Hunter, and
he's not a throwaway asset. He's a year left on his rookie scale,
and the night that we're recording this, he went kaboom in the first half
of Atlanta's game. So it's it's just tough to read what this team could
do. But I think that they either need a trade that's going to help
them with those non trade minutes, or like to just boost them as a
defensive team somehow. They have a lot of talent up and down, and
I think even with the injuries, even with the league health and safety protocols,
they've clearly been one of the two or three biggest disappointments in the NBA
thus far. Yeah, I'm curious who you would have as a bigger disappointment,
because for me, I think Atlanta is probably number one, and I
still don't have too much long term concern. I'm not sure I would make
that consolidation trade that you referenced quite yet, just because I do still believe
in the pieces and the construction we saw work last year. This might just
be a regular season filled with a little bit more experimentation, a little bit
more reversion to the mid range, heavy less ball movement offense that we've typically
seen under Nate McMillan. But the personnel shouldn't be regressing and the fits still
make sense. So maybe it's just foolish of me, But I'm holding on
to hope here. I don't think it's foolish. I just think you get
to a point where we've been saying that for a while now with them,
even dating back to the season before, like look at all this town,
looking all this depths. Yea, and then especially the past two seasons because
of how they spent in the off season of twenty twenty. But no,
I don't think you're necessarily a fool. We're expecting it. I think it's
I'm speaking of and by the way, I think Atlanta it's probably the biggest
disappointment New York or the Lakers could be up there, and I'm not willing
to put the Lakers just because expectations were unrealistic from the start and we knew
that this is bad. Though, this is I will say the Lakers of
even if you didn't expect them to be like top three in the West,
they they've underachieved. Still see, I feel like I had them as a
fringe playoff team going into the year. So for me, it's like kind
of in line with what I expected. Well anyway, this next team could
be argued to be one of the bigger disappointments in the league, and it's
the Celtics. As we're recording this. They're in the bottom twelve of point
scored per possession on offense, and there's so many things wrong with their offense,
but I'm looking at just there their effective field goal percentage, which combines
two and three point efficiency on wide open jumpers outside ten feet, it's fifty
point four. That is low. It's twenty seven in the league. And
when you just couple that with the fact that they're a bottom five team,
when it comes to the frequency with which their share of the shots come at
the rim, you start to have some really big offensive problems. You're reliant
on the perimeter, and yet you're not shooting like these great clips from them.
And some of the biggest culprits that factor into the stat is out Horford
shooting thirty point nine percent on wide open threes, Dennis Shrewder an affective field
goal percentage of thirty three point nine on wide open jumpers. In general,
he's shooting twenty one point one on wide open two point jumpers and twenty five
percent on wide open threes. And then Marcus Smart he's shooting thirty three point
three percent on wide open two pointers. Not a huge sample size, they
account for a very small percentage of his shots. But this is just a
team that's not even necessarily getting a ton of easy shots. And then they're
not even consistently making some of the easy shots that they are taking, and
they are finishing well at the rim, they just don't get there a ton.
And so when you kind of factor it in with some turbulent three point
shooting from Jason Tatum, the level of difficulty on his looks, I get
it, but that's I think he's done a better job getting to the rim
and finishing through contact over the past couple of weeks, but their offense is
they have the talent to be better than eighteen nineteenth in point scored per possession.
And again there's a lot of inconsistencies factored in here, but we do
have some really key players not hitting some of their higher quality looks on the
season. I would expect some improvement there just as things regress to the mean.
But I also don't know that I'm that surprised given the construction of this
roster, because ultimately, like, who are you relying on as deadly perimeter
shooters. You've got Jason Tatum and Jaylen Brown, but they're subject to so
much defensive attention that it's harder to get those high quality looks off because the
pieces around them just aren't conducive to drawing defensive attention. You know, a
lot of the names you mentioned, Marcus Mark, Dennis, Shooter, Al
Horford, these aren't guys who we should expect to be knocked down shooters.
Granted, they should be hitting at a higher clip than they are on these
wide open looks, but I just I'm not that surprised by this one,
just because it seems like if Boston was going to have an Achilles Heel.
This is exactly what it was going to be. Yeah, I mean,
look another Aarnie Smith twenty two point two percent of wide open threes. They
just have guys they're supposed to be shooting better than they are in the rotation
that are not. I mean even when you look at some of the wide
open three point clips, like let's use yeah, I mean this is Peyton
Pritchard thirty four point one percent on wide open threes. Like that's had a
good year to begin with, but that's not great. Uh. Jalen Brown
has done his part there, but like Jason Tatum, you probably want him,
he's not getting a ton of wide open threes, and thirty seven point
five percent is higher than his clip for the season from deep. But that's
even just on wide open threes. I'm just saying that's probably around Lee average.
I haven't looked at the Lee average mark, and so you'd hope some
of these guys are eclipsing those marks. I don't know if I've hoped for
Boston's offense to be much better than this on the season, though. I
think if if you tell me that they'll finish in the bottom ten, I'll
say that they'll be better than that. But if you're gonna tell me that
they're gonna finish in the top thirteen, I'm probably gonna take the under.
Whereas I think they're gonna be below league average or around there, I'm right
there with you. Let's move on to the Brooklyn Nets, who are next
up here. I feel like with Brooklyn, so much of the conversation from
a national perspective has focused on the biggest names we've We've heard at nauseum how
Kevin Durant is fully recovered from the previous injuries and is in the MV race,
maybe even leading the MVP race on some ballots. We've heard about how
James Harden has had to fight to overcome the new foul rules and whether he's
been overrated in all of that discussion, and then Kyrie Irving. Obviously Patty
Mills has not gotten enough attention. So my number here is three, and
that's how many qualified players have hit at least forty four percent of their three
pointers during a qualified season while taking more than seven per game. Steph Curry
has done it three times, Duncan Robinson did it in twenty nineteen twenty,
and Clay Thompson did it in twenty seventeen eighteen. Patty Mills is on pace
to join them and actually has the largest on off swing among NETS rotation players.
I feel like he just needs more love in general for having a truly
stellar season that is making life on Durant and Harden that much easier and just
not getting any attention for doing it. That's probably fair. There's you obviously
have big stars there. They're gonna cast a shadow over what everyone else on
this roster is doing. And I do think that there have been a lot
of positive stories on this team in the face of Kye not being there,
the COVID stuff than just the extracurricular Kyrie stuff. Are they bringing him back?
Yes, they are bringing back always in the least health and safety protocols
hardened, having like a James Harden trademark game once every third game at this
point, every other game, whatever, it's been. So yeah, I
would totally agree with you there. I am surprised that maybe you didn't focus
on their defensive bit, because my question would be, do you think it's
real or fake? When you look at the results too, it's a little
fake. Yeah, it's they are. I'm not trying to overstep with the
stats here, but when I was looking through stuff, no, no,
go ahead. Mine was purely agenda driven. Mills deserves more attention Patty.
By the way, I didn't not that I didn't like that signing. I
was convinced towards the end of last year that Patty Mills might be done.
Then he goes off in the Olympics and I'm like, all right, it's
the Olympics. And then it's like, oh, no, you were just
fucking wrong. Patty Mills is a g and he has been has he been
there? He's been easily been their third most valuable player this year. Right,
maybe he could say LaMarcus Aldridge is in there, I would put Mills
well at and I'm right there with you where I expected this to be kind
of an irrelevant signing. I mean, his three point percentage of trended down
for each of the last three seasons. It seemed like he was having more
trouble generating open looks, and yeah, there's something to be said for the
luxury of playing with Durant, but he's looked incredible within the flow of this
offense. I'm the thing that still shocks me and maybe they'll just get I
don't want to say everything's been luck, but maybe they'll get you know,
for lack of a better word, lucky all season. But this is a
team that for most of the year. And yeah, now there's a ton
of noise in there, but there's six in points allowed per possession this year.
There is I don't I don't know that there's a faker team wide stat
out there right now than what the Nets have gotten. They have been the
best three point shooting defense in the league, which means that they've definitely been
fortunate opponents are shooting thirty one point four percent from three. The other thing
is that they have the fourth best half court defense in the NBA. But
they're not a good defensive rebounding team, and they're getting destroyed when they do
allow putbacks. And the other thing is they just don't have a good transition
defense. They are dead last in the NBA two in points allowed per possession
off a turnover. They're allowing almost one point five points per possession off a
turnover. That's a lot. I'm not Look, they're in the top ten
right now. All as she can do. You're playing the games that's what's
happened legitimately shocking. If that holds all season, my god, I'll be
floored. Oh would too. And I do think there's something to the idea
that as much attention as Brooklyn receives, and as much attention as the star
players receive, some of those pieces might be a little bit underrated on defense,
Like James Harden, for all the criticisms he's received, he's actually a
pretty competent post defender he can switch on to some bigger bodies. Durant has
been a defensive nightmare for the opposition for a while now, but because he's
just so damn good as a scorer, he does not receive enough credit for
being a fully well rounded player. It's more the aging veterans, whereas like,
do we really want to count on this keeping up for too long?
If they want to give thirty minutes a game to Nick Claxton, then sure,
maybe that'll happen. Well. I think that James Arnen has been atrocious
on defense this year, yes, but there's there's a functional use for him.
But at my point, like, he's not just a nightmare in a
bad way this time in every single situation. So I would mostly agree with
you, except for this season. I think that he's just been legitimately fringing
on useless there. I think that they've gotten like really good minutes out of
I mean, Nick Clacks has been good since he returned, Bruce Brown helped
him, DeAndre Benbley was playing a big role of points for them, James
Johnson has given them some really good minutes. Their defense has been again and
that some of it might be loved, but their defense has been legitimately good
this year statistically in certain areas. I just questioned whether it it will hold.
I didn't mean to derail the nets. The next thing. I'm on
the Charlotte Hornets, and there's been a lot of attention just paid to their
offense, which is high octane as hell and super fun to watch. There's
also been a lot of attention paid to their defense, which is probably the
worst in the league. It is statistically, but I would probably name one
or two teams that I would trust even less than them. I and a
lot of it's on the interior. Can they upgrade at center? I just
like so much attentions already been paid to that. I decided to focus on
Miles Bridges. I think that he's sort of fallen off the look at how
much this guy's improved ladder, and I've seen people citing his decline and efficiency.
There's just a ton of extra volume and a level of difficulty ascribed to
his field goal attempts. And so I looked at his paint touches this year,
and among the sixty players with at least one hundred paint touches on the
season, he is second in points percentage on those paint touches, which means
that he has scored one hundred and eight percentage of points relative to his number
of paint touches. The only player in front of him his Miles Turner.
He's had to make this an even simpler stat. Myles Bridges is shooting seventy
nine point eight percent on his pain touches this year. He has just been
he has improved a lot, and he's doing just a ton for Charlotte's offense.
And this was key to me. He's fourth in the league overall in
paint touches, so there really are using him. And when he gets moving
downhill, there are a ton of different things that he can do. Yes,
you'd like to see him shoot a higher clip from three. But this
is someone who I still believe, who I still think deserves to be in
the most improved player discussion, and who has been mostly really great for Charlotte
this year. So my primary takeaway from that is that you're essentially saying that
the rest of the league has miles to go before I can catch up with
the two front runners and paint touches. Wow, it was just it was
sitting right there. Always had to take it, I, you know,
knowing your track record. I'm actually surprised that you didn't interrupt me while I
was talking to relay that one. I was surprised that Miles Turner was first,
by the way, and I was not expecting that to be the name
you came up with. If I had to guess, I was gonna go
with Gobert just because his touches tend to be fairly limited around the basket,
and when he does, their alley loops are easy putbacks. Yeah, so
I might have misspoke there, But Miles Turner leads the league in field goal
percentage on paint touches with seventy nine point one among the sixty players that have
at least Andre Miles Bridges is second with seventy eight point six. When you
look at points percentage, Miles Bridges is actually seventh and the first one there.
I actually bet I'm going to tell you the name, and I bet
you'd be like, oh, yeah, the points percentage leader is Montras Harold,
followed by his on Whiteside, which is another like oh, I get
that, and then Rudy Gobert's third, Yoka just fourth, Javal McGee is
fifth, Turner is sixth, still higher than I thought eight and is seventh,
and Miles Bridges is eighth. And again to have those two, you
know, have those higher volume guys in just total paint touches, like to
know that Miles Bridges is so high up there and in total paint touches on
the season and to still be like that efficient just to be he's fourth overall
in the season just on all touches, so like that's early high number.
So he's been great for Charlotte this year. Was a moral of my story.
Would I would say on the point on the point percentage stat I'm most
impressed by Bridges, Yokichen Turner because that's not due to a limitation in their
role. You know, they have more offensive responsibilities than that Turner is task
with spacing the floor. Yokich is the hub of everything Denver does on offense,
and Bridges is a slasher, a high flyer, a guy who overpowers
players with his athleticism, not necessarily just rolls for the basket and catches lobs.
And that's not to diminish what Gobert and Whiteside and Harold do in their
roles, because obviously it's still hard to thrive within those, but there are
limitations to them. And I also do think there's something to your point about
Bridges still being in that MP discussion and not necessarily getting the credit. And
it's just it's one of those awards where the time at which you're perceived as
improving most most is so important, because those early season bursts of excellence,
if they're not maintained throughout the whole season, and it's like, Okay,
you actually declined throughout the season. And it's harder to compare the baseline of
the previous campaign to the entirety of the current one. I mean, he's
still upped his points per game average by seven points, his rebounding average by
one point two is assists by one point five. He's doing it while maintaining
an impressive level of efficiency with a drastically increased role within the Charlotte offense.
Like year over year, his improvement is so substantial, but month over month
it's less substantial, which is an unfair knock against his candidacy. It's Charlotte
is still the best three point shooting team in the league. By the way,
even though he is shooting I think around a career low from three.
I didn't even look at that number because I don't care. I just think
that I just think that he's been so good. There you go, so
move on to the Chicago Bulls. I did go with a little bit of
low hanging fruit here because I know that it has been discussed fairly prominently already.
But I went with seven point nine, which is Damar de Rosen's scoring
average in fourth quarters heading into Monday Night's game that leads the league. It
outpaces Janisan Dakumpo at seven point four, Kevin Durant at seven pointzer, and
Cole Anthony at seven point zero. Beyond that, he's slashing fifty two,
ninety five, five, eighty eight five and per thirty six minutes in the
fourth quarter, averaging thirty two point seven point seven point eight rebounds, four
point oh assists, and only one point eight turnovers. He has just been
absolutely sensational and he's currently checking in on the RPR MVP predictor at NBA math
at number eight in the MVP race. For us, personally, I think
it's under selling him, partially just because he's missed some time, miss a
little bit more time than the other primary contenders for the award. He deserves
every bit of MVP love that he's getting, and maybe a little beyond that
just for these herculean efforts in close games and crunch time scenarios and really as
a score throughout games. His game has just continued to progress, and he
looks so comfortable doing what he's best at, which is pulling up for those
long jumpers. Maybe you know, he is the classic defiant as to the
people who are like, oh, you know, the analytics say that's a
bad shot if you take along too or a mid range jumper, like it
depends on the player. For DeMar de Ros, and we're pretty pretty sure
at this point that those are not bad shots. And the pressure he just
puts on defense is because he can make those even we know Kevin Duran and
Chris Paul are going to shoot those shots a higher clip. But his I
think the actually the most important thing he's brought to Chicago this year is just
like that steadying decision maker with the ball in his hands. He's been one
of the highest iq most effective pick and roll ballhandlers in the league for more
than a half decade, I would say at this point, and to have
that now against Zach Lavine and this is this is not a stat two though,
is the number of All Star starters in the East that I think Chicago
should have because Zach Levine is quietly had. I think because the Bulls have
received so much pub with their new additions, with the Rosen sort of headlining
it. He has been magnificent this year. He has just been absolutely spectacular.
And when you look at de Rosen qualifying as a forward and Levin as
a guard, those two to me are easy starter votes. I'm right there
with you. I totally agree. I have the Cleveland Cavaliers. I'm gonna
start doing what you what you do with your with your stats. Nine That
is the rank of Darius Garland in unassisted points from three point range on the
season. They're only eight players who have tallied more unassisted three point looks than
Darius unassisted three point unassisted total three points like converted three points from beyond the
arc than Darius Garland. What a terrible way of where Vama to put it.
The other number on Darius Garland, no, which is similar here is
four. That is his rent, that is his rank and assists at the
rim. And this was all just to show that Darius Garland has made the
offensive leap this year. I know the Calves have been sort of this unspectacular
offensive team. They've been so good defensively, but with Colin Sexton out,
they don't just have a ton of great and established offensive weapons on the team.
He has really been the driving force of what they're doing. And to
have someone who is so comfortable now just taking off the dribble threes and if
anyone's actually curious as to what he's shooting, they're only four players who are
attempting four off the dribble threes per game and shooting better than thirty seven percent
on them. Steph Trey Kemba just saying and Darius Garland he probably I don't
know if he should be in the most Improved Flier discussion just because he was
doing a lot of this stuff towards the end of last season. He absolutely
belongs in the All Star conversation. So the primary stack here though, because
the assist at the rim when you look at who he plays with and just
how he does get his assist with his patients in the lane, some of
the lobs he throws, just what he can do when he gets to flow
a range is either taking it or we're really burning the defense with a pass
that didn't shock me, even though four is incredibly high, but ninth in
total unassisted just three points to their name. That's incredible, especially for a
player who struggled with his jumper at the beginning of his NBA career. Granted
he didn't have much college experience to fall back on. That transition was a
tough one, but the way he's developed is astounding to the point that feels
like he's a pretty reasonable fifty forty ninety candidate in years to come. And
when you couple that with the passing vision that we've seen from him, because
he's already one of the absolute best passers in the NBA. The instincts that
he has to feel for the game, Like he's one of those guys where
you can just tell that he's reading what the opposing defense is before the opposing
defense even knows what it's doing, and has the physical ability to make those
passes into tight windows. That's going to be a nightmare. To stop A
word I've used a lot this podcast so far, so I'll try to stop
using it. But I feel like we're going to see some twenty ten seasons
while he's pushing for inclusion in that fifty forty ninety club as one of the
premier offensive players. I think he is that good as a shooter and a
passer that as the calves continue to develop around him, the sky really feels
like the limit here. Yeah, and just to drive my point home,
here are the players that are in front of him in points generated and unassisted
threes, which was the way simpler way to say that, Zach Lavine,
Jason Tatum, Damian Lillard, Luca don Chich, James Harden, Donovan Mitchell,
Trey Young, and Steph Curry. And so that's shot company. Yeah,
that's pretty good company. Us. I do think he benefits from being
one of the very few players this year who has not missed significant time.
He's only missed two of Cleveland's games to this point. But still, like
that's not to discount from what he's doing overall. Yeah, it's the totals
or whatever. And then also there's the fact that Colin Sexton's not there.
And then like just some of the alternative options on the perimeter, whether it's
Ricky Rubio or Isaaca Korro, you probably want Jenny Osman as the second player
you trust to launch at three off the dribble on the calves this season.
That's you know, I think that contributes to But the efficiency in the volume,
I mean four off the dribble threees per game, hitting them at a
thirty seven plus percent quip. Kudos damn absolutely for the Detroit Pistons. I
will admit that I spent a while trying to find a good positive stat and
just I struggled to the point that I couldn't do it. Like I thought
about highlighting Isaiah Stewart's put back efficiency or the lottery odds that would have been
a positive. That's a good one. You know. Luca Garza has been
surprisingly adept at taking charges, albeit in a small sample size, but I
ended up going negative because that's kind of the slant of almost every Detroit stat
this season. So my numbers three, and that's the number of players on
the Pistons roster who have positive scores in offensive box plus minus. Would you
care to guess who they are? Three of them? Right? Three of
them? Isaiah Stewart. Isaiah Stewart is not one off to a bang up
start? Who is it? King Cunningham? Ed? Cunningham is getting close
but is not there yet? All right? So I'm just and are any
of the starters even one of them? Yes? Wow, it can't be.
It's not Jeremy Grant. Jeremy Grant is one of them? Really?
Yeah? Is there another starter? Is Kelly Olynic one of them? He's
barely is one of them? Okay, that's fine. Corey Joseph, You're
never gonna guess the third Hamadudiala, You're never going to guess the third saving
Lee Cashas Stanley, who has played twenty one minutes in one game. That's
that's all three. That's all three. That's it. I got nothing else.
It's depressing. I'm sorry to the Pistons fans for highlighting it, but
better luck next year. You just want to move on. I just want
to move on. I have I have the Pacers, and I went two
ways here. I know you asked me if I had multiple stats for every
team, and my answer was no, I do not. But they are
such a curiously bad team because you look at some of their vitals and they
shouldn't be here. And so I'm using this stat as a launching point into
my stat They are a plus thirteen point eight points per one hundred possessions when
Broadden, Lavert, Turner, and s A. Bonus share the floor.
That is a great net rating there. In the ninety five percent TiAl of
offense eighty nine percent dial of defense, there are some you know, whether
it's justin Holiday or Christa Wartey playing with them, they're still destroying opponents.
Take out to Arta or Holiday and put in Kelan Martin, they're still killing
opponents. Put in o'sha Broussette instead limited sample size, they're still slaughtering opponents.
And when you just look at how average are better they rank on defense
and offense this season, to just see how bad they are in the standings,
and so you start to dig deeper. There are a lot of problems
that they have, but this is still the stat that stands out to me.
They have a fifteen fifteen point four is the staff here. That is
their winning percentage in one possession games during the final two minutes. So games
in the final two minutes where the point where the point differential is within three
points of either side, they are two and eleven. That is the worst
winning percentage in the league. And to underscore how often they've played in these
situations, they're seventh in total minutes during these situations. They're also a total
of a minus forty in these minutes played. So we're talking about yeah,
okay, they might be seven in total minutes played during these one possession crunch
time situations in the final two minutes, that's still only a total of twenty
one minutes. They've been not scored by forty points in these twenty one minutes.
The only team that has a worse rob plus minus in these minutes is
the Boston Celtics, who are minus forty eight across thirty minutes of basketball there.
So they have struggled. You can look at their record and just three
point games whatever, but two and eleven in these adjusted crunch time situations,
and I would argue these are more valuable when looking at trying to diagnose what's
happening because one possession games in the final two minutes, those are games within
reach. This isn't like, oh, we was trailing by seven and then
we're able to cut it to four for a really quick second. You're in
the final two minutes within three points at least, and you have a two
an eleven record. This team, I still think can be better as currently
constructed. Will they I have no fucking idea. I have no idea.
I do think they need a trade just because the better version of this there's
still a cap on what they do. And I do question, and this
is coming from a Carrius Labert supporter, I just question how much worse they
would be without Carus Labert. And I know he's having kind of a moment
right now offensively, I still just question that what's truly baffling here, too,
is that this is not what you would expect from a team coached by
Rick Carlisle. You know, I this is the first time hearing of the
number, so I don't have any research to back this up. And I
would imagine that his teams in Dallas did not suffer through similar issues. I
do want to ask you, though, the Luca don or MAVs have they
that in crunch time last year? So yeah, Lucas struggled to shoot a
lot in crunch time because the offense was just too focused around him. But
I feel like previous iterations I don't really remember the same narrative emerging. I
am curious though, if you think that that's more of a fluke, just
driven by the inherent small nature of that sample in you know, those crunch
time situations, or if it's actually emblematic of bigger issues. So you know,
like for example, in baseball, one run games are typically almost luck
driven, where you can pretty reasonably expect it to regress back to a five
hundred record in one run games. Do you feel the same way here or
do you think it's more this is something that we need to be concerned about
for the rest of the season. I do think it's something we need to
be concerned about because among the other struggles here, I don't know that they
have a clear crunch time offensive pecking order or system in place. They've struggled
against zone defenses and how to bust them. They have Careslvert kind of throwing
shade at Rick Carlisle about the way he approaches busting zone defensive as we know
that, I don't think. I think the Bonus just fucking hates Rick Carlisle
just flat out I feel like that's the thing that we could sort of pick
up on. And then Myles Turner is unhappy with this role. He's taken
two shots in these situations, which is can you guess where he ranks on
the team and shots taken during these specific crunch time situations dead last, He's
seventh, so that's still pretty low. And again it's it's only a fourteen
minute sample size for him. But Jeremy Lamb has played in Les played four
minutes of these current size situations, taking more shot than you. I'd have
to go back and watch every single instance of this. But just they have
this, and then they also just have these uber bad, inexcusable losses.
Losing to a decimated Miami heat roster not once but twice. That's problematic,
And so I do think this is more emblematic than not. But I am
also on record as saying I think this team get them fully healthy, give
the keys of the offense to a shaper set, and they're going to be
a title contender. You heard it here first, Yeah, and probably only
here. Who's for the Miami Heat. My number is fifty three point eight.
That is their effective field goal percentage this season, which is actually fourth
in basketball. It trails only the Utah Jazz, Golden State Warriors, and
Phoenix Suns. And you know, last I heard, those are pretty good
teams to be grouped with this season. And I picked this because it's just
shocking to me, because I think going into this season, the expectation was
that Miami is going to be this defensive juggernaut who gums up everything for the
opposition and struggles to score on its own because Jimmy Butler is not a floor
spacer, Bam Autobio not necessarily a floor spacer. Even with the three point
shooters, it seemed like this roster had offensive limitations. And then you throw
in that Butler and Autubaio have both missed significant time and Duncan Robinson has missed
everything, and it just doesn't make any sense. And yet here we are,
and you know, it's largely a test estimate to when he's been healthy.
Butler's inside the ark, scoring, Tyler hero putting pressure on defenses from
everywhere, Max Struss becoming one of the NBA's better shooters just period. And
plenty of role players chipping in efficiently on the offense. Primary among them.
I would say PJ. Tucker too. I would never have guessed that Miami
was going to be a top ten offense and a top ten defense this season.
I didn't even know they were a top ten offense. That shows you
how much I know. I thought they were like twelve or thirteenth or something.
But that's they've dealt with not having them at a bid. It might
depend on where you look. I think on Basketball Reference it's seven and seven
for the two. Okay, Yeah, cleanland Glass has them thirteenth, So
that's outside of garbage time, and I'm sure they've probably benefited. They've played
the Pacers twice and beat them, so there's your Garben sick there. But
yeah, look, even if you're above average on offense, knowing how much
time Jimmy Butler miss, knowing bam Adebayo is still out, You've had miss
games just all over the place at this point, and I think at least
I did. I build them as one of the shallow the were teams leading
into the regular they were one of the most likely teams to disappoint in a
previous episode is where I had them pegged and they've they have more depth than
meets the eye, like they had you know, Dayne Dedman gave him some
good minutes before he went out of the lineup, and like I said,
Caleb Martin has been a revelation for them. Both the Martin brothers had been
good and you were you were all over the struss potential breakout, right.
I don't know if I think I was given a choice of if you had
to pick the non Tyler hero bench player to break out, I picked Max
Drews. I don't really know if that's just take the credit, all right?
This is my victory lap. Are we ready for the Milwaukee Bucks?
Always there? I feel like I've talked about the two other stats that I
looked at too much is that this team is killing opponents when they play with
Janie, Drew and Middleton, which I thought was important because it took the
Bucks a lot of climb the standings. I've also if anyone's been tracking Drew
Holiday is shooting roughly one trillion percent on step back jumpers this year, and
I've mentioned it and tweeted about it. So I didn't want to go that
route. But if you want to see your eyes pop out of your head,
you can look at that I went this route. Jannice is being doubled
on thirty five point four percent of his offensive possessions this year. That is
the highest in the league among like actual rotation players. Just for some context,
Joel Embiat is second at thirty four point five percent, and even like
Kevin Durant is being doubled on twenty seven point four percent of his possessions.
I know the roles are different, but I just thought that was interesting.
The Bucks, when Jannis is doubled, that's a team. As a team,
the Bucks are averaging one point two one points per possession. I don't
like making these comps, but the most efficient offense in the NBA outside of
garbage time or I think, no matter what filter you use at this point
is the Utah Jazz. They average one point one nine points per possession roughly,
so when Jannie is getting doubled, the Bucks are straight up anniling rival
defenses. And I think that has a lot to do with not only his
finishing, his just ability to blast through whatever's being thrown at him. But
he has become a better decision made when he's in those situations, and so
you can probably trust him to find the right teammate or find a teammate who's
going to swing it to another teammate to keep the ball moving. The Bucks
Man, Look, I'm gonna have Phoenix or Golden State as my title favorites
right now. The Bucks have a better case than Brooklyn. I think they're
right up. Look there. To me, right now, there are four
top contenders. I'm not even ready to put Brooklyn in there. I have
Utah, Milwaukee, Golden State, and Phoenix. Milwaukee is the toast of
the East to me, and Yannie of course, just a huge reason why
I think he deserves to be in the MVP discussion right with the other three
players we talk about most Steph, Yokich and KD. I also think he
probably needs more love at this point for Defensive Player of the Year when you
just look at his overall workload, but then just some of the lifts he's
had to make when he's been basically the only star in certain lineups, are
in certain games depending on who is available for Milwaukee. Yeah, I think
you can make an argument that this is the best basketball Yannis has ever played,
and it's largely because of how well he's processing everything on both ends to
the floor. The reads are quicker, ability to pass out of those double
teams in a beneficial way. It's happening a little bit faster. He's always
in the right spot on defense, He's more motivated there. It seems just
everything is clicking for this guy. He is He's been unbelievable this year,
so I'm right there with you. I think the double teams probably stem a
little bit from how many key players in Milwaukee have been missing time this year.
If there are such limited options around him, sure, why not,
but it's clearly not working, and that's just gonna make them even deadlier when
everyone is available again. I think also just the where if you look at
him me, he's still being double. A lot has to do with the
post, but when someone goes downhill, I think there's a tendency to overreact,
so you're going to see defenders sort of collapse on him. So we
probably like triple just bodies being close to him with how they're measuring the double
teams, whereas Kevin Durant, Yeah he's gonna'll drive to the hoop and stuff,
but he's not like Black, Like he's not rolling or diving a lot
of the time, and Jannest does that more often than him, So there's
there's context of all. But like, that's more than a third of his
possessions still right that he there's been classified a double team and to be that
efficient, I don't even want it. There's I'm not going to mention this
numbers. I actually might use it on the Western commers pots. So let's
actually just move on to my New York New York Knickerbockers. On spoiler alert,
We're gonna have more unembied in a little bit, but for the New
York Knicks, I'll be the first to admit that this is an agenda driven
one, not as much about the whole team or anything. But my number
is three point seven seven. So among the two hundred and sixty six players
who have logged at least four hundred minutes this season, only Rudy Gobert has
more dunks per thirty six minutes than Obi Toppin, Hally Coppin's at three point
seven seven, Rudy Gobert's at three point eight three. Rest of the top
ten, JaVale McGee at three point seven five, Daniel Gaffer, Jared Allen,
Montrez, Harrold, Mitchell Robinson, Robert Williams, Hassan Whiteside, and
Clint Capella. You know, I don't. I don't think there's anything particularly
notable about this stat except give Obi Toppin more minutes, stop making and put
up highlights at the end of games that are already decided. He has something
to contribute on offense, and I want to see more of it. I
think he could deserve more minutes two. I do think they've increased his role
to where I don't really get mad about his minutes. I might say,
is he playing forty a game? No, that's all I mean. I
guess we should get mad about it. I can't feel like my voice is
getting gravelier and gravellier as we get to the Tom Tipodeau coach team, so
I feel like this is appropriate. I'm gonna be honest. I don't know
if I've ever been less reliable for basketball takes than I have over the past
like two and a half to three weeks, and I hope I think everyone
should just self admit that they probably belong under the same umbrella because val in
consistent availability has been But look, if we want to go to the other
agenda route, I'm just going to reiterate a stat I made before. There
are four players attempting four off the dribble threes per game and shooting thirty seven
percent. Are better Kemba, Trey Young, Steph and Darius Garland. I
think we're the names. I know three of those names are right, and
one of the three that are so, Yeah, Kemba is playing now out
of necessity Derek Rose being injured players in health and safety protocols. I don't
think people claimed when anyone argued that Evan Forger should have been mentioned instead of
Kemba, that no one was watching the Knicks. I don't know that benching
either one of them was the answer. I just don't think that benching Kemba
Walker made all that much sense, is where I stood. I think this
team is in need of something that we can't even quantify at this point,
other than an increase in minutes for Obi Toppin that's the one thing that we
can point to and say, why isn't he playing. I'm gonna be honest.
I tried to go even deeper here and tried to show that Obi Toppin
was actually the most impressive high volume dunker in the NBA this season. I
can't because he's been assisted on eighty nine percent of his dunks and Gobert's at
eighty seven percent. So there's just I can't make the case. Next up
is the Orlando Magic. I decided to focus on a player, and I
almost want to Gary Harris rout here, but I didn't think this was really
fair, so I'll just mentioned really quickly, very quietly. Gary Harris is
shooting forty point three percent from three overs beast fifteen games, shooting fifty percent
on drives for the season. He's on an expiring contractor he makes too much
money, but if he's going to be good, serviceable on offense again,
if he hits the buyout market, or if they're willing to take on bad
money, call for Russell Westbrook or something like their teams that could really use
someone like him. I wanted to focus on Franz Wagner because I still think
when we talk about top rookies, and I do have another stat for a
rookie coming up, but we're gonna focus on Evan Mobley, Scottie Barnes,
even Alpern, Shane Good and Christal Art. They feel like I've gotten more
shine than a Franz Wagner. He has a long way to go in a
lot of aspects. If you want to trust some of the stuff he's gonna
do off the dribble. But he is shooting ten of fourteen on finger rolls
this year, which is seventy one percent, sixty four point three percent on
bank shots this year nine to fourteen, and he's also shooting around forty five
percent on floaters. And so this guy has an in between game that goes
well beyond him just spotting up from beyond the arc or capitalizing in open space.
There are real layers to his offensive game. I'm so interested to see
where his career ends up. He's been a little bit better to fit where
I should, a lot better defensively than I thought. He's played a ton
of three, which is a role that I really thought he couldn't satisfy in
the NBA. And then I'm overall just fascinated to see short of what he
becomes on offense, because this is someone who there's even been like very brief
glimpses of like, oh, there's that post touch. That was okay.
I think he's a little bit more physical when he's getting into bodies than people
think. And he still looked. You look at his when you start breaking
down his shots more sub forty percent on driving layups. Yeah, that's that's
a problem. But this is someone who I don't know if he's been one
of the top three rookies. Kake Cunningham is probably getting more mentioned there than
him and might just might deserve it by the end of the year, but
he has been This has been a really rock solid, if not exponentially better
rookie season from Franz Wagner and the Magic. However you feel about their future,
they've been not good this season. They've started racking up losses as we
get later into the schedule, but Franz Wagner has been one of the bright
spots for them. I think they've gotten a lot of bright spots out of
what projected us. They're starting five and now we've seen that get butchered because
of John Suggs getting injured and and all that, but he's maintained I think
his offensive glimpses into high efficiency more so than probably anyone on the team other
than Cole Anthony, who was even He's seen his ebbs and flows there,
but we've seen bomba drop off from shooting well. Wendell Carter Junior even there
as well. Joan Suggs was strugging all year before his injury. Franz Wagner
has been sort of that close to a constant, if not an actual constant.
You are on mute, mister Adam from a healthy ever, care to
come back and enjoy the discussion, Yeah, let's try that again. I
feel like with Wagner, took two or three games before it was like,
Yeah, this guy knows how to play on offense particularly, he's gonna be
really good. And he's crafty enough, he's skilled enough, he's physical enough
to score in a wide variety of situations. I do want to highlight Cole
Anthony again, just because he came up in one of my stats earlier seven
points per game in the fourth quarter, tied with Kevin Durant for third in
the NBA this season. He had endured a little more of a roller coaster
than than some of the other top scoring up and comers, but it's there,
and I feel like Orlando has to be thrilled with both him and Wagner's
emergencies because it feels like they're closer to having multiple centerpieces than they've been in
a long time. Yeah, because like, if you go back and make
your pick a five, I know there are players who are having better seasons
right now, but I still think Jaalen Suggs because you can't evaluate these picks.
We could do that in a vacuum and say, yeah, sure,
these are the guys that are having the best rookie seasons, but a long
term Jalen Suggs, that's still that's still a pick I'm making. If Scotty
Barnes is going for I think you might be able to talk. I love
Bones Island, Shane Good has been great, Duarte has been good. We're
talking about Franz Wagner. But if if jail Herbert Jones some love, what's
that give Herb Jones some love? Herb Jones. I don't know if I'm
gonna end up with the Pelicans in the next one, but if I don't
I have a Herb Jones stat that, my god, don't try shit on
Herb's gonna say rond Europe right, Philadelphia seventy six ers lately. Yeah,
My number here is twenty one point seven, and that is Joel Embiid's assist
ring, which is the highest of his career. He's also paired it with
the lowest turnover percentage of his career at ten point six percent, and I
think that's indicative of the strides he's continuously made to shore up his biggest weakness,
which is, maybe aside from availability, sometimes vulnerability when defense has doubled
down against him in the post. We've seen so many times in previous seasons
that he gets a little bit of tunnel vision and is particularly susceptible to a
defender coming from the weak side and knocking the ball out of his hands,
and we've consistently seen him get better at recognizing and avoiding those situations throughout his
career. We've seen his turnover percentage, with the exception of twenty nineteen twenty,
decline in every single season that he's played in the NBA, reaching its
low point at ten point six so far this season. But this year,
he's pairing that with the added vision as a distributor. He's it no longer
feels in those situations, like if he is being double teamed, if there's
a good post defender on him, He's not forcing the issue. He's not
even just looking to kick the ball out to a safe space. He's actively
looking to facilitate within the Philadelphia offense. The seventy six ers have still struggled.
Tobias Harris has disappointed Ben Simmons has yet to play or be traded.
There are issues up and down the roster, but Embied has not been among
them and has been improving on the offensive end. His ten point five turnover
percentage on post ups is not surprisingly the best of his career. As you
sort of like it mirrors his season. I didn't know what a season long
thirdod percentage was, so that sort of mirrors it. He's still been sloppier,
I think when he has to attack off the dribble this year, but
I don't know if that's a function of some of the town around him at
this point and can be maddening with some of his decision in double teams.
But I'm totally with you, this is a guy. When he's on the
floor, he is one of like the five most valuable players in the league.
I would argue, it's just is he ever on the floor enough to
actually be one of the five most valuable players in the league for an entire
season. And I wanted to highlight one like this because I think, particularly
with star players, we often fail to recognize those smaller scale improvements that they've
made to shore up the fewer weaknesses in their game. And it's it's pretty
clear to me that Embid has put in that effort, put in the film
study to recognize, diagnose, and apply himself in those situations. You're ready
to move on to the Toronto Raptors. Always this is I'm going with Scotty
Barnes here because the Raptors offense has been blah and predictably really bad in the
half court. But there's and Scotty Barnes is part of that because of some
of the stuff you need him do, he's not ready yet. He has
a rookie and then also he's not like, I don't think you trust him
to do all this creation off the dribble, even though he's a great I
would say he's going to be a very above average pastor for someone who plays
his position. But since November twenty first, he is shooting forty one point
six percent on threes, fifty four point two percent from mid range, fifty
eight point seven percent inside the restricted area, and fifty percent on drives.
He's an effective field goal percentage of around fifty five during this time on all
jumpers. That is going to be so massive for the Raptors moving forward.
I know he's not you know, taking these quick steph Curry like off the
dribble threes off the dribble jumpers. That is fine if you if he's going
to hit jumpers, whether they're you know, sort of dribbling into them,
casually hitting them off the catch, also being able to get inside and be
efficient there with the ball in his hands. You're gonna be able to use
him in such a wide variety of roles and there's going to be room to
operate for an Ogna Nobi, for a Pascal Siakam, Fred van Fleet.
Obviously, if he's going to be and we'll look at just a perimeter,
I guess seeing what he can shoot inside the restricted area not too surprising.
But if he's going to be above average from mid range on drives in general
and from three again, just given the quality of looks that he's getting,
they are some of them are not these complicated opportunities they're not supposed to But
you don't need more from him. I've been floored by that. And I
had another stat. I think people know how good he's been defensively for a
rookie, but I did want to throw this out there. I just didn't
settle on it. Three d and twenty nine players have logged at LEAs two
hundred and fifty minutes this season. Per b Ball Index, Scottie Barnes ranks
first in positional versatility on offense, which is when you look at the percentage
of possessions he's spent guarding each position, He's at like fifteen percent for each
at least fifteen percent across all five positions for the season. So they have
someone special there. And I'm going to be monitoring his offensive growth like a
hawk, because not only I can't even imagine world do for the raptors ceiling
if there's more levels to what he's accomplishing right now, but just him as
a player, what is the I think people just sort of viewed him as
even when he was at his best towards the beginning of the year, and
when he was first, you know, your first introduction to him, when
he realized he wasn't the project he was billed as. It was, Oh,
this might be a quaint all Star does a lot of really good things
defensively, but there will always be these holes in his offensive game. What
if the latter's just not true? What if there just aren't a ton of
holes in his offensive game? Two three, four years from now, We're
talking about someone that I think has been undersold. This isn't a fringe star
ceiling, maybe all star type ceiling. I think watching him, maybe I'm
sort of jumping the gate here. This feels like someone who has, if
everything works out, a SuperStar's peak, and if I had to hedge against
him getting there or not, I'm just gonna be the optimist here because we're
dealing with so much doom and gloom bullshit this year. I'm gonna say that
he comes closer to reaching it than not. But he's been I do think
the Rookie of the Year race is closer between him and Evan Mobley than it's
sometimes advertised as with you there. I think it's it's important to note the
expectations were coming in for Barnes, which was that he was supposed to be
a defensive menace and a work in progress on offense, and for him just
to explode on offense this early is astounding. Now, let's use NBA maths
offensive points added stat Real Fast. The top five in offensive points added among
this year's rookie class Eugene Amarui right now for the Dallas Mavericks in eighteen minutes
is at one point two six in fifth place Josh Primo and a small sample
for the Spurs at two point six six. Then we have who am I
missing? I think that was four and three, sorry, and then number
two is Jack Landel at seventeen point six three again in a super small sample,
and then Scotty Barnes number one, twenty three point four and nine hundred
and seventy three minutes. He has sustained an above average offensive performance in his
debut season, which just was never supposed to happen for him, and it's
been unbelievably impressive. My other stat for the Raptors that I just have to
get out there is just Fred VanVleet. That's it. That's the stat.
Even great this year, I mean he was great last year. Great leader,
great human, great player. He's just awesome. He is the Raptors.
I don't know if I'm too plugged into Raptors Twitter, and that's not
in I love Raptors Twitter, but they might lead the league and like the
most likable players to come through that team over the past two or three years.
Fred van Fleet is just so up there. I'm with you on everything
he said. There, that's the stat, Fred Fred van Fleet. His
likability percentage is infinity and then some wow. Yeah, I agree, absolutely
all right. So we'll finish it up with the Washington Wizards and I'll go
player focused again here. My number is fifty nine point six, which is
Denny Obvia's true shooting percentage over twelve games in December. It's the highest career
monthly mark he's posted yet since the first five games of his career last December.
You know, his defense has been the calling card to this point.
It's what has enabled him to get more run within this surprisingly competitive Washington rotation.
But the offense looks like it's starting to come around. The shots are
looking a little more smooth, a little more confident. He's able to find
the basket and transition, He's able to find some gaps sort of in the
half court set. If he is this player on offense and can move beyond
being that Swiss army knife who can fill so many different roles at an adequate
level, than Washington ceiling gets that much higher because it is still searching for
that player who can join Bradley Beale in the Star realm. And there are
a lot of really good role players, some of whom feel more significant roles
than others. I think, do you think it's fair to say that Montrez
Harold, as excellent as he's been, still probably a role player who kind
of capitalizes against bench players. Daniel Gafford, that high energy guy who might
not be scalable within a bigger role. If Obvious can be that number two
in Washington, If Ruey Hatchimura can be that number two in Washington, then
that team can as send a little bit higher in the Eastern Conference hierarchy and
obvious recent performances make it more reasonable to think that he could be that guy.
Yeah, Look, he's been magnificent on defense this year. I don't
know how many time it's gonna say magnificent in this podcast. And if there's
may be more than all same nightmare, yeah so, And if there is
another gear there offensively to where he can maintain a higher level consistently, he
becomes Could you argue that he's their most important long term player right now,
because what the hell is he's clearly their second. I don't want to be
too hyperbolic. Bill has said that he wants to be there, so I'm
not going to assume that he is going to be on the way out.
But he's no worse, no lower than their second most important long term player
right now. And it's really it's been a joy to see the progress that
he's made. And I do think Russell Westbrook catches a lot of ship that
I don't think he deserves. I man, the Westbrook discourse is so bad.
There's people who are trying to overcompensate by saying he's been pretty good this
year. He really hasn't. He's had high moments, but like he hasn't
been cool of the corner three point percentage. Yes, he's getting a little
bit more under control. It hasn't been a batter season for him. But
then there are people who just think that he's the root of everything wrong with
the Lakers, and aside from them consolidating a bunch of usable players into him,
at least two usable players I would say three, because they have that
first round pick into his salary. That the Lakers dumpster fire is not on
him. I do think he kind of held Denny Avia back a little bit
last year, at least looking at it offensively, and so I'm more captivated
and intrigued by Denny Avvia this season than I ever was at any point last
season. A totally fairtake. That does it for us. All fifteen teams
there probably did that more quickly than we normally do, at least for a
fifteen team podcast. Let us know if you have any cool numbers, or
if you liked any of our numbers. You can find Adam on Twitter at
for amos Ze or nine I'm at Dampa Valley if av Ali the show is
at Hardwood Knox. We've all the accounts to the MBA Math website at MBA
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it. The shout out to the one, the only, the most important
stat unto himself, Frank Neil Kid