WEBVTT

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Hey, everybody, Welcome into the
Thinking Crypto podcast. You're home for cryptocurrency

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00:00:12.400 --> 00:00:16.239
news and interviews. On your way
in, please hit that subscribe button as

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00:00:16.280 --> 00:00:19.399
well as the thumbs up button and
leave a comment below. If you're listening

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on a podcast platform such as Spotify
or Apple, please leave a five star

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rating and review. Folks, I
think it's no secret that the crypto market

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has pulled back. It's a sea
of red on the coin market, capitalist

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Bitcoin of course, pulling back Ethereum
and the rest of the alts. So

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what's happening here? Well, folks, tomorrow we're going to hear from Jerome

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Powell and the Fed. We're going
to have an FOMC hearing, and we've

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seen historically there is huge volatility in
the week of these meetings. Right things

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are just choppy. It's so volatile. This includes the stock market, and

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of course crypto is extra volatile,
volatile squared you want to call it that.

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So this is a expected But what
does this pullback mean? Doesn't mean

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that we've hit the top this is
the end of the bull market right now,

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there's no indication of that, meaning
that bitcoin is still holding key support

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levels now if it breaks below sixty
k and starts heading down to the fifties.

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I'm going to be concerned. I'm
being very transparent with you guys.

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That's where myself and others are going
to have to go back to the drawing

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board and say what happened here?
How has the thesis changed? Right right

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now? The thesis is we are
in a up trend. We are in

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a macro bullmarket, and until those
support levels break, folks, then we

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can say bull market's over. Something
is different this time around, and we

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see Bitcoin on the daily huge red
candle, but once again still hovering in

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the sixty thousands, the DXY,
the Dollar Currency Index, pumping looking strong.

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However, that doesn't mean it's going
to go to new all time highs

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here or continue moving upwards. It
could break downward. So the takeaway here

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is we got let the dust settle, we got to let things calm down.

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And there's a mixture of things.
One, Bitcoin was super over extended

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in that massive run up before they're
having where it touch new all time highs.

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That of course never happened in the
history of bitcoin. And I think

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we were so overbought, so over
extended, we needed this extended cool down

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period and people were still greedy.
You look at the Bitcoin Fear and Greed

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index over the past week, even
months, greed, greed, greed.

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Right. But historically we've seen in
bull markets, if you go look at

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the charts, we've had some deep
corrections which brought fear into the market.

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And I experienced some of those in
twenty sixteen, twenty seventeen, and then

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of course twenty twenty into twenty twenty
one. And we need those flushouts right

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to reset the system, and then
we keep moving upwards. So my thesis

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is still we are in a macro
bull market. We are in a uptrend,

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and I don't expect us to be
topping out anytime soon. I still

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think we have a phase three to
go to where we're going to to see

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massive euphoria blow off top activity.
Now, as always, anything is possible,

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but hear me out, what is
the probability of such scenario playing out?

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There is a bowl case and there's
a bear case. Right now,

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I think the bowl case has the
higher probability of playing out. But every

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dog has its day and sometimes things
change on us, even if it's been

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going on for decades, right,
So I want to make sure I'm being

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balanced here, and you understand my
approach and that I am thinking of different

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scenarios and not ignoring scenarios. I'm
not some moon boy here just telling you

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forget about the Bears. They're going
to get destroyed. No, the Bears

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could win this battle, but the
probability of them doing it is low.

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So just please understand me, because
I know some people are going to come

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into comments and say, oh,
you're this and that right, But it's

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like no, as an educated inform
investor, putting our emotions to the side,

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we want to look at both scenarios
and see which scenario has the highest

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probability of playing out. Now,
many different analysts are weighing in because people

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are getting fearful. Here. Kevin
Spence and who's been sharing the bitcoin parabolic

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curve model, which is the textbook
model, and it's playing out perfectly.

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He says, crypto social media today, why is it going down? And

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he shared a macro chart showing hey, we're building support levels here, higher

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highs, higher lows. Even Chris
Berninski weighed in. He said, people

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getting too bearish. In my opinion, most things look solid. This volume

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is minor today, the flush later
this week the springboard. He says,

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you look at this chart and choose
to be bearish, like why? So?

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Once again, as I stated before, his chart is showing that we

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have not broken key support levels.
Even if we were to go to sixty

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K, we have not broken or
invalidated the uptrend, so that is still

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in play here. Tech dev says, we've been here before, forty two

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months after the start of an already
ended long compression. Hovering at the prior

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high press again, he's the top
band banned with squeezed and bounced. Expansion

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has begun. Next leg pois to
accelerate. So what does this mean?

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Though, with the news that we
may hear from the Fed tomorrow, so

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I have a few thoughts on this. On one hand, I see that

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the FED has paused their rate hikes
right, That in itself is bullish.

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That means they're not going to continue
to raise and make capital more expensive.

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Don't get me wrong. People want
the rates to be cut, and we

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saw him in twenty twenty three as
the FED was raising rates, and even

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as they were pausing at the beginning
this year, the markets were running up.

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The markets are forward looking. They
know the FED can only go so

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far before they destroy the economy.
And it's a presidential election year, and

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historically that means there's a lot of
liquidity that's pumped into the markets and that

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any sitting president is going to want
to look make the stock market and economy

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look great. Right, it goes
for Democrats or Republicans. So what we

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may hear from Jerome Powell tomorrow is
that he's probably going to say, hey,

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we're still paused, and that raycuts
are coming later this year or early

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twenty twenty five. So that will
give the signal to the markets, hey,

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cheaper capital is coming, and then
there's a Biden rumor sell the news

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event. And what we've seen historically
is when they actually start executing those ray

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cuts, the markets start to tank. We've seen it time and time again.

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The data doesn't lie. So,
like I said in my newsletter earlier

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this year, the markets are front
running those ray cuts in my opinion,

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but when they actually do cut the
rates, then you know there might be

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a sell off. That's what we've
seen historically, So we'll see what happens

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tomorrow. Obviously, this is all
correlated to global liquidity, cryptos, stocks

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and all these assets, so I
don't think Biden would want to go into

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the election with the markets not looking
great, and he'll want the stock markets

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looking great. And once again,
it could have been Trump, it could

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have been somebody else. But this
is my thesis and I could be wrong,

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and I would love to hear what
you guys have to say about this

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issue. Now. Of course,
bitcoin is leading in all the social media

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mentions. This data is brought to
you by Sentiment, which is a partner

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of the podcast. As far as
negative to positive sentiment, there is some

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negative sentiment which is at thirty eight
point seventy six, pretty high compared to

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the positive sentiment of forty five percent. So people are starting to feel the

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fear. But in my experience being
here for multiple bullmarket cycles, this is

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bullish. When you have fear in
a bull market, in a macro bull

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market, that's very bullish, right, folks. For those my ogs who've

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been here before, you know what
I'm talking about. For retailing these folks

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to get scared and run away,
and then the markets do the contrarian move.

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Right. When everyone's bullish, the
markets can tank, and then when

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everyone's fearful, the market's pumped.
We've seen this time and time again and

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how it works. So fascinating stuff. And if you want to get a

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pro account for Sentiment you can check
out the link in and description. You

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can get a discount using the code
thinking Crypto Now. Brian Armstrong, based

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CEO, tweeted out the following Today. He says in DC this week talking

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about Washington, DC, excited by
all the bipartisan momentum as the Senate takes

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up drafting bills in the wake of
FIT twenty one. It's time to get

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some clear rules for crypto. This
is great. We need coinbase, we

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need the industry to keep putting the
pressure, keep the momentum going. Because

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we were able to get Democrats to
join Republicans to not only repeal SAB one

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to one in the House and the
Senate, but also get the FIT twenty

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one regulation bill out of the House. We need to get through the Senate

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now. This could be a catalyst
that if it is approved this year,

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that it could drive the markets insane, right because it will be an incredible

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narrative that there is clear regulations in
the United States of America. So let's

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keep an eye out on this.
But very very bullish news and remember money

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talks, and we've seen Coinbasse,
Ripple and A sixteen Z and a bunch

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of other companies started donating to the
political campaign funds for pro crypto candidates.

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So it's going to be a very
fascinating election. And we see Donald Trump

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has come out and positioned himself as
the pro crypto candidate. So crypto is

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in the mainstream now, guys in
the spotlight. Now, speaking of Ripple,

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we got some news here. They
tweeted out earlier this year, Ripple

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announced its intent to acquire Standard Custody, and today we're pleased to share that

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the acquisition is now complete. If
you guys recall I've often had Jack McDonald,

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who is the CEO of Standard Custody
as well as poly Sign. Now,

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some things didn't go well for poly
Sign, and I'll try to get

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Jack back on the podcast to talk
about it. But part of the acquisition,

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Jack remains as the CEO Standard Custody, which is now owned by Ripple,

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but he will also become the senior
vice president of stable coins at Ripple

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to lead the team there as they
launched their stable coin. I think it's

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going to be r l USD,
So interesting things happening. I'm going to

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try to get him on and to
give you guys the details. Brad Garlinghouse,

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Ripple CEO, tweeted out the news
saying two major acquisitions in approximately one

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year under Ripple's belt with Medico and
Standard custody, and a big welcome to

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Jack McDonald. Jack is no stranger
to the xrpl's ecosystem and to me thrilled

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to have him join team Ripple leading
our stable coin initiatives. So once again

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I'll try to get you guys the
details. Now, a great place you

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can buy bitcoin, XRP, solana, etherrem and all your all coins is

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Uphold, which is a great crypto
platform. I've been using them since twenty

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00:10:33.440 --> 00:10:37.279
eighteen. They have two hundred and
sixty plus cryptocurrencies. You can also trade

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00:10:37.320 --> 00:10:39.879
precious metals such as gold, silver, palladium, and platinum. So if

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00:10:39.960 --> 00:10:43.279
you'd like to learn more about Uphold, check out the link in the description.

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00:10:43.399 --> 00:10:46.440
Now, moving ahead, we got
some news here that ZK sink to

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distribute twenty one billion ZK tokens.
Matter Labs heralds the largest distributions of tokens

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to users amongst major l twos.
So this is a massive air drop.

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So the developers of Ethereum Layer two, ZK sinc Era and ZK Stack are

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preparing to air drop a token titled
ZK. Following in the footsteps of dozens

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of protocols, the team at matter
Labs has looked to avoid some of the

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pitfalls that have tripped up competitors in
the public's eye. For starters to scale

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two thirds allocated to the community distribution, including a seventeen point five percent allocation

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for an air drop. Here's a
quote. A seventeen point five air drop

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to six hundred and ninety five two
hundred and thirty two walls is the largest

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00:11:33.600 --> 00:11:39.639
distribution of tokens to users amongst major
layer twos. Matter Labs that in a

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blog post all air Drop tokens will
be unlocked and transferable from day one with

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no vesting period. That had been
a point of contention following Iigen layers Igentoken

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release for example. So, look, I love air drops. You know

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some of these that have worked out
well for me, like the Flare token

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air drop and I have not participated
in this, but I'm going to look

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into how I can potentially get some
of this air drob so FYI for you

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guys, and I'll let you know
as I find out more, but I

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highly recommend you do your own research
as well. So the rest of the

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community allocation to be administered by the
ZK Singh Foundation and an on chain governance

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process dubbed ZK Nation. The remaining
one third of the twenty one billion total

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ZK will go to investors and the
Matter Labs team over a four year investing

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period with one year cliff. That
means no team and investor tokens should be

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expected to hit the market in mass
until June twenty twenty five. Previously,

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Starkware postponed its team unlock in response
to criticism following the release of the STRK

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token in February. So, folks
like I said, this is pretty cool,

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and I love air drops going out
to the community to get people to

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start using these air jobs and start
getting interest in the blockchain, and for

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people to build and steak and do
all these great things. Now, we

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also got news here that liquid restaking
platform Melo launches with Symbiotic, So liquid

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restaking project Melo launch Today's set to
be the flagship of Symbiotic, which also

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just launch. Melo aims to decentralize
LRT creation and allow depositors to choose between

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varying risk profiles. Here's a quote. Melo enables depositors more flexibility regarding their

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desired level of exposure to risk while
still benefiting from the liquidity of staked assets.

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This is achieved by dynamically adjusting strategies
within each vault based on real time

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risk assessments and market conditions, the
team claims and according to their documentation,

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so this is an interesting update.
Mellow will be the first and flagship LRT

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for Symbiotic, which also launched today
and seeks to compete with Eigenlayer in the

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liquid restaking arena, which has grown
rapidly over the last year. I can

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00:14:01.240 --> 00:14:05.039
later currently boast around twenty billion dollars
in total value locked. So I don't

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know much about restaking, to be
honest with you guys, I have to

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do more research here and I'm going
to look into it though, and I'll

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00:14:11.919 --> 00:14:16.919
try to maybe don a video dedicated
to it about what is restaking and is

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00:14:16.919 --> 00:14:20.279
it safe? Right, because you
don't want to lose your funds and you

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00:14:20.279 --> 00:14:22.480
don't want to put your stuff in
something that's going to get drained and all

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00:14:22.519 --> 00:14:26.360
that, we've seen a lot of
exploits with DeFi. I do believe DeFi

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is the future, but I think
just like Web one point zero, it's

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not perfect right or near perfect at
all, and there's a lot of vulnerabilities

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and it can be exploited. So
we have to be careful here. And

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I'm being honest. I love crypto. I believe in this technology, but

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I'm no idiot. I was born
at night, but not last night,

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and I don't want to lose my
fund. So you do have to be

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careful with these things, and you
have to let them prove themselves, give

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them some time to get people on
board and test it out and show that

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they have the security layers and much
more so. Just an flo on that,

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folks. Well, folks, that's
the news. Let me know what

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you think. Leave your thoughts and
comments below. What do you think the

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Fed is going to do tomorrow and
how that will impact markets. I think

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everybody's going to be paying attention to
that because it will tell us what's going

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to happen next. As I shared
with my thesis earlier, I believe the

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bull market is still alive and until
the chart show it's invalidated. Then you

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know, we'll have to adjust accordingly, but we'll have to be patient and

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see what comes out tomorrow. Now, folks, I'm going to be publishing

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my interview with Charles Hoskinson of Cardono. Be sure you have the notification bell

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enabled publishing that interview in the morning. You don't want to miss it.

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It's a good one. It's a
long interview, but we touched on a

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lot of things and it's just something
you definitely want to watch, even if

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you're not a card Ono holder.
Folks, don't forget to also grab a

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copy of my book Rethinking Crypto and
Amazon. Grab a copy, leave a

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00:15:52.279 --> 00:15:54.799
rating and review, Grab a couple
copies for your friends and family. Thank

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you, guys. I appreciate you
all, and I'll talk to you all

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later. A task tsk TSK tsk
t