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Welcome to another edition of the Chicks
on the Right podcast. We are with

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our good friend and sponsor of the
show, Zach Abraham from Bulwark Capital Management.

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And Zach, now that we know
inflation out of control once again,

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and the border crisis not showing signs
of slowing down, and now the Biden

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administration is trying to be all like, look at us go this job's report

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is amazing, three hundred and three
thousand new jobs. But then it turns

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out in the fine print one hundred
thousand of those or more are in it

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are by immigrants. So we want
to know why. We want to know

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your take on why businesses, American
businesses are relying so much on cheap labor

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in this economy. Well, I
mean because they want to maximize their profits.

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They don't care, right, So
you know it goes back to no,

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it's no, there's no there's get
in trouble for it, right,

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there's no no. And and unfortunately
this is a in my mind, this

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is a perfect example of regulatory capture, what we call regulatory capture, meaning

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when we talk about and I think
that you hear it, and it's not

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even so much intentional on if we're
looking at the Federal Reserve as an example.

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I don't even really think it's intentional. Like if you listen to them

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talk about they said something stunning the
other day and I can't remember who it

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was. Maybe it was Powell,
I know, you know what. I

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think it was Jannie Yellen and Laoe
Brainerd from the Treasury Economic Advisor. Yeah,

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and they were talking about like,
hey, you know making references.

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Hey, we need this, you
know, we got to get wages down.

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And I'm sitting there going okay,
like right, but this is you

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got to understand the way these people
think. At some point, what became

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good. Now there's always been this
relationship, but naturally it needs to have

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boundaries. So at some point,
what became good for the economy really means

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what is good for megacap companies?
Right? What is good for the companies

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that we want to hire us when
we're done? At the Federal Reserve?

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Right? And I don't think it's
intentional. I just I honestly think it's

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morphed into that. So you're battling
with inflation and they're focused on getting wages

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down. Okay, Now, if
you get wages down into an inflationary environment,

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right, So because the whole idea
economists believe that that that higher employ

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the only reason. They think the
only reason you get inflation is because of

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overemployment or full employment. They don't
believe that the government can spend too much

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money and create inflation. These people
are like, no, no, it's

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if you guys really knew the full
extent of it. You had to read

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through the FED minutes and realize what
these people think, you'd want to pull

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your hair out, right. So
their idea to deal with inflation is to

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bring more people into the country,
so competition for goods heats up and also

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lowers wages at the same time.
Yeah, I mean like that's but they

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can hire these people for less,
right, and so what so what what

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does that do to the labor market? Was that due to us? Well

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it certainly. And that's that's the
issue, is that they're sitting there going,

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oh, that's deflationary, right,
or that that's going to bring down

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inflation. Well you're like, yeah, but it's going to increase demand for

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goods and housing, right, So
so that's your strategy. It's not to

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bring down costs, but to bring
down wages. In an inflationary environment.

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But it shows you how flawed their
model of economics is. Yeah, and

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that's why they're wrong at every turn. That's why I was sitting there and

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we put out a tweet the other
day where I was like, look,

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we're not spiking the football and we're
not saying that we're brilliant and the Fed

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stupid. But you guys, remember
at the end of the year, I

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was telling you we expect inflation to
ramp back up on the first two quarters.

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Why because employment hadn't pulled back,
stock market and housing price says we're

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up. It was that simple.
You got to financialize. They're sitting there

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just flummcks by it. And and
the point I was putting out there was

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if if if some guys like us
sitting in our office over here in Tocoma,

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Washington, you know, they didn't
go to Ivy League schools and don't

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have NBA or excuse me, don't
have PhDs and economics and all that kind

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of stuff, if we can figure
it out. But supposedly as far as

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people right, they can, what
does it mean. It means they're worthless.

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It just means they're completely worthless.
Yeah, if all you did was

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do the opposite of what the FED
said, you'd have a really good track

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record. So then so then what
happens if Trump gets to office? Then

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does everything turn around? What do
you think? No? No, no,

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because you're at a point now and
and and look, you know,

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for the Trump fans out there,
I'm not bashing Trump, Okay, I'm

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just talking reality. Okay. Trump
ain't exactly a buttoned down, fiscally disciplined

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guy himself, right, so when
he comes in and that and that's the

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other problem you're at here. People
are like, we need to get this

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spending under control. Yeah, if
you want a really nasty recession, that's

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correct. But we're at a point
now in our opinion, and I think

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it's really hard to argue that if
you want growth in the economy, the

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government needs to spend ridiculous amounts of
money. If you want the government to

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have fiscal restraint and discipline, then
we're going to go through a really nasty

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recession. It's that simple. Those
horrible, horrible choices, Yeah they are.

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But did you get what I'm saying
though, Like, yeah, like

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everybody, you know, everybody,
just look at the math of it.

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It's totally their fault. They've done
this well and just look at the math

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of it. Okay. So and
these are like terms and it's pretty obvious.

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It's why I laugh so hard every
time somebody's like, the economy is

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so strong, economy is growing at
three three and a half percent, and

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you're running seven percent deficits. Yeah, that's it. I mean, that

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doesn't matter. Yeah. Literally,
you're literally like the boat is sinking and

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you're like, you know what I
mean, you're taking water in, you're

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like scooping water out. It's like
it's it's just like we're breaking even we're

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still drowning. We're drowning is what
we're doing. Yeah, which is why

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slowly, which is why I use
the bathtub analogy. Right, Yeah,

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Like these people walk into a bathroom, they see a hole in the bathtub,

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water all over the floor, and
I'm like, hey, we got

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to patch that hole, and they're
like no, no, we just need

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to get a higher flow faucet.
Yeah, oh my exact so true,

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that's exactly what's happening. Yeah,
And so like right, so if you

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think if you just sit there and
look at it and go, hey,

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what would happen? Not if we
balance the budget, what would happen if

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we got back to historically normal rate
deficit rates of two and a half to

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three percent. We'll do the math. Right, you're at seven percent,

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you're getting three to three and a
half percent growth, pup deficits back to

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three percent, you're in recession.
Yeah, it's gonna take massive mathive cuts.

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It's going to take like Argentina type
cuts. Oh my god. And

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see, this is why we're always
telling people that they need to get with

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you to do a risk review,
because now more than ever, when the

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world is this borked, we need
to be paying attention to the that we

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face in just the regular markets and
with everything in our financial portfolios. So

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how do people find you and learn
more about how they can get help from

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you and the folks at bullwork.
Yeah, I think pretty easy. So

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you can just google Know your Risk
Radio, Know your Risk Radio podcast,

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Bullwarkcapitalmanagement dot com. We're all over
the place. But yeah, it's low

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pressure. The biggest thing we're trying
to get out to people is listen.

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By definition, you have a portfolio
that is not suited for this environment.

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It's just not You have the record
low exposure to things like gold, to

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things like silver to things like oil
and net gas materials. You know,

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we're having a really good start to
the year right now and it's being driven

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by all those things. And you
look at every all these portfolios that come

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in, Nobody has any exposure to
that stuff. It's a portfolio built on

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low interest rates, low inflation.
It's the opposite of where we're at.

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And if you think that playbook's going
to work going forward, best of luck

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to you, because I wont okay. That's a pretty good warning. Well,

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thank you, and we hope people
reach out to you at know your

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risk com always great to have you. Thank you, Thank you, ladies,

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have a good one you too.
Investment advisory service is offered through Trek

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advice. Does not take into consideration

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your specific situation, and does not
intend to make an offer or solicitation for

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the sale or purchase of any securities
or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and

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are not guaranteed, and past performance
is no guarantee of future results. For

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with a qualified tax professional before implementing any

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