We're to take the s TOB five hundred and show it so you know,
year to date it's up like eighteen percent, right, But if you show
the equal weight version of that, which just buys an equal weighting of each
of the five hundred companies in the SEBA one hundred, it's only up like
three percent. And so it shows it that capitalization and that concentration is really
driving the returns. Now, that's normal for a portfolio. The problem is
is what happens when those stocks have a bad day, or what happens when
those spiraling like self correct. Well, that's when it can get really,
really ugly. You're listening to Carrie Let's's Financial Survival Network, where you get
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than ever. Ed Welcome, you are listening to and watching the Financial Survival
Network. And hey, we got numbers coming out, stock markets going higher.
The world is safe for democracy. Eddie Gifford's here you discuss Eddie great
to have you back, So, hey, what's up? Well? I
mean, I don't know if the world is safe safe safe. You know,
it's funny because we got this GDP report and everything seems like it's just
going so well or came in higher than expected. But you know a lot
of that was due to government spending. When you really dig into the report
and you see what's happened to the consumer and consumer is not spending as planned
as the consumer came in underestimate. So you know, there's definitely a lot
going around what going on right now that a lot of people are excited about
because the market's near all time highs. Again, of course they're not all
time highs of view cal for inflation. And then, you know, just
to take things a little bit further, when you look at the inner market
relationships and what's going on the surface right now, there's a lot of things
that are blinking kind of a yellow warning light right now. So you know,
is Santa on schedule? I mean, right now, I would say
it appears that is the case, but I also think he might be going,
you know, through a train track and then he might get a side
swiped by the xenter market relationships. So he's not careful, all right,
So you think the GDP numbers are fishy, I think that everything has been
fishy since the beginning of the year, whether we're talking about CPI, we're
talking about GDP. It just seems like a lot of this stuff. The
market just feels a lot more rigged lately. Not that not that Adams always
felt that way a little bit, but it just feels like there's someone behind
the curtain pulling the strings. And you know, every time that it seems
like we're gonna break somehow magnificently, we bounce back and it's pretty rapid.
I mean, we look at last month, everyone was calling for dooming gloam
and you know, I would say that it was a justified doing loom based
on what's going on, and we saw that thing bounce back faster than anything
we've seen, even faster than COVID. So that's not normal behavior, you
know. And when you when you look at the markets over the last three
years, most of the games have happened like right in conjunction with earnings,
right basically like the seven days at the end of the calendar month, and
that typically happens in bear market. It's not in bull markets. So there's
just a lot of like weird things, weird anomalies that are occurring that make
you feel like you're in a bear market. But yet we're right at or
close to all time highs at least in the SNP and the QQQ, the
DAS, DAC of course, Russell and retail and are telling another story.
So usually it's the small caps that prevail to the upside or that the that
provide the confirmation, and right now the small companies are struggling. Yeah,
so uh, you know, the economy looks bleak, but don't the stocks
climb on a wall of worry? Well and generally speaking, yes, I
mean we've had like this wall of worry all year and the stocks have kind
of like drifted upwards. Of course, you know, it's what stocks are
we talking about. There's a ton of concentration right now. That Magnificent seven
make up seven percent of this at B five hundred right now. And if
you were to just you know, showing a client this the other day,
we were to take the s to B five hundred and show it, you
know, year to date it's up like eighteen percent, right, But if
you show the equal weight version of that which just buys an equal weighting of
each of the five hundred companies in the se Grade one hundred. It's only
at like three percent, and so it shows that capitalization and that concentration is
really driving the returns. Now, that's normal for a portfolio. The problem
is is what happens when those stocks have a bad day, or what happens
when those spieling like self correct. Well, that that's when it can get
really really ugly. You know, I'm not saying run and put your hand
or a mattress and just and don't invest. You have to invest. I
mean, we've got to beat this thing called inflation that wasn't really nowadays.
But if you are investing, you just got to make sure that you have
a Yeah, you have to have a reason to get in. You have
to have a reason to get out. And those have to be predetermined.
And you can't just decide one day only think I'm gonna buy Apple and then
the next dex they'd be like, oh, I think I'm going to get
out of Apple. That's not how it works. Not If you want to
be successful long term, you need to have a discipline strategy that you follow
that has a predetermined reason to get out, and I think that a lot
of portfolios are missing that unfortunately. All Right, so you're not convinced about
this bull market yet, are you. I'm definitely not. I think there's
just too too many things under the surface, too many cracks under the surface.
The consumer is, yeah, they consider is spending it's fantastic, right,
And the government it's spending, it's fantastic, except for when all that
spending is built on debt. What that leads to is a significant bubble.
And you know, I don't know if we're in the same snare that we
were in like two thousand and seven inch prior to the two thousand and two
thousand and nine financial crisis, but it's starting to feel similar. I Mean,
the difference this time is it's our government that's really in trouble, and
the consumer is in trouble too because of all these high interest rates and just
because of the high credit card balances that we're seeing. So the only thing
that's saving us is a lot of people were smart enough to refinance every COVID
and so they have a little house payment. But you know, the more
they consume, the more the other debt goes up and then at some point
you hit a wall because we don't have that eliminated credit line like the government
has, so unfortunately no, so we're going to hit that and when we
do, it's not going to be pretty, no doubt, no doubt.
So when are we going to hit it? Well, if I had a
crystal ball, we'd all be kauzillionaires, right, Kerrie, I think that,
you know, if we're looking at it, If we're I would I
would be looking out probably six to nine months now. I could definitely see
it being pushed to the other side of the election, just from the standpoint
that our leadership is shouldn't They're very very good at kicking cans down the road,
and so obviously if they can get it to the other side of the
election and they can blame it on the new president, that that's that's that's
a much easier way to do things. Right. Sore to think that there's
not politics involved, you know, and silly. I mean, we've we've
seen how political things have become a little five to six years and and and
we're heading into next year, which is an election year, which probably means
a lot more yelling and screaming at each other. Uh so you know,
whenever we can do it to basically distract what actually going on and Whi's actually
going on, is that consumers are have a hard out of time paying their
bills, their max out on credit cards. There's that they're not going to
go and refinance the house to you know, consolidate, because now they got
to go from three percent orders to seven percent orders to do that. So
it's, uh, it's gonna hit that point. And I think that it's
one of those things where we'll all look back and be like, oh,
that was so obvious, right, But it's it always it always surprises you
still. You know. It's like, yeah, I remember when my uh
my grandmother was really sick and then it was like a new shoes in the
passway. But when she did, it's still hitting. Was like the same
thing with these financial events. It's like you know they're coming, you know
they're coming, and then they get You're like, oh, man, I
knew what was going to happen. I didn't do anything about it, right,
So I don't think this time is different, you know, That's what
they keep telling us. Yeah, all right, so what are we supposed
to do here. You're supposed to just sit here and wait for it to
happen. Well, I think that when we're looking into the end of this
year, I think that, you know, we're in an okay spot.
When we look at kind of like the metrics, the market internals and and
what's going on, that looks like we do have some upside edd into the
end of the year. I would definitely have stops and targets in place on
my portfolio, you know, like that the holding goes down my fifteenth birth
site kind of loose. There's no reason to hold on to it if it's
if it's not doing what it's supposed to be doing, and as it rises,
take some profits on the way up. That's a way to kind of
put somebody in your pocket. I'm a I'm a Vegas guy, So yeah,
you know that the casinos are down the street from me, and the
first role is get that, get get your gallant money back into your pocket
as soon as possible, right. So yeah, So it's just be disciplined
in what you're doing, don't be scared. But at the same time,
it's okay to be nimble and flexible. And right now cash is pained five
percent. I'm not a fan of just holding cash, and I understand why
a person would. Okay, so so cash is king. I thought cash
was trash, but I guess I was wrong. So you think we're going
to have an event. But of course you're in the same boat as the
rest of us. None of us know when, no, if we could
call that, and that's what gets movies made about us. Right well,
but I mean that it would be it's coming. I mean, and it
feels like this is this low peus, but like it's when it actually reaches
its indpoint. It's it's usually sudden, it's usually fast, it's usually very
painful, that's for sure. Hey, so what about the gold going up?
But what do you read into that? And the dollar goes sound?
So gold has been the primary thing that I've been watching over the last two
weeks. You know, goal is is definitely giving us a warning signal.
Right now, it's it's starting to it's been out performing would or lumber.
It's starting to outperform S and B five hundred. And then even if you
go and you look on like the other side of the risk off cell,
the TLT has also been outperforming the SNP and has also been outperforming high yields.
So those are typically risk off warnings. The only thing that we're seeing
that usually like tips over to is utilities versus the SMP. Right now,
SMP is still outperforming utilities by a little bit. Of course, it just
depends on the timeframe that you're looking at. But we see that flip too,
and we're kind of in like a one risk off type scenario that means
heads your portfolio if that happens or you know, takes the profits for sure.
Yeah, yeah, all right, I buy it? All right,
Eddie, where do we find you these days? How do we connect to
you on the web? Same Samuel Attactive wealth dot com, slash Eddie Dash
Gifford or just jump on the Google ipened Eddie Giffer. That's Eddie with a
Y E D D Y Giffer to g I F F O r D and
you might even find me on this show. So all right, and the
links in the show that it's this interview on Financial Survival Network dot com.
Make sure you go there, sign up for your free newsletter, and if
you got a question for Eddie or myself, emails k l at Carrie LUTs
dot com. Eddie, appreciate you taking time out for your busy day and
sharing your wisdom with us. We're just gonna sit back and see what happens
next. All right, sounds good? Thanks? Okay, thanks for listening
to Carrie Letz's Financial Survival Network, your solution to today's trying times. For
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