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We're to take the s TOB five
hundred and show it so you know,

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year to date it's up like eighteen
percent, right, But if you show

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the equal weight version of that,
which just buys an equal weighting of each

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of the five hundred companies in the
SEBA one hundred, it's only up like

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three percent. And so it shows
it that capitalization and that concentration is really

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driving the returns. Now, that's
normal for a portfolio. The problem is

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is what happens when those stocks have
a bad day, or what happens when

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those spiraling like self correct. Well, that's when it can get really,

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really ugly. You're listening to Carrie
Let's's Financial Survival Network, where you get

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00:00:38,119 --> 00:00:43,759
valuable information you just can't find anywhere
else to thrive in today's trying times.

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00:00:43,960 --> 00:00:50,479
You need the Financial Survival Network now
more than ever. Go to Financial Survivalnetwork

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00:00:50,520 --> 00:00:57,280
dot com and get your free newsletter
and gift. Financial Survival Network now more

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than ever. Ed Welcome, you
are listening to and watching the Financial Survival

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00:01:04,200 --> 00:01:10,280
Network. And hey, we got
numbers coming out, stock markets going higher.

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The world is safe for democracy.
Eddie Gifford's here you discuss Eddie great

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to have you back, So,
hey, what's up? Well? I

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mean, I don't know if the
world is safe safe safe. You know,

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it's funny because we got this GDP
report and everything seems like it's just

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going so well or came in higher
than expected. But you know a lot

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of that was due to government spending. When you really dig into the report

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and you see what's happened to the
consumer and consumer is not spending as planned

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as the consumer came in underestimate.
So you know, there's definitely a lot

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going around what going on right now
that a lot of people are excited about

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because the market's near all time highs. Again, of course they're not all

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time highs of view cal for inflation. And then, you know, just

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to take things a little bit further, when you look at the inner market

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relationships and what's going on the surface
right now, there's a lot of things

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that are blinking kind of a yellow
warning light right now. So you know,

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is Santa on schedule? I mean, right now, I would say

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it appears that is the case,
but I also think he might be going,

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you know, through a train track
and then he might get a side

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swiped by the xenter market relationships.
So he's not careful, all right,

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So you think the GDP numbers are
fishy, I think that everything has been

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fishy since the beginning of the year, whether we're talking about CPI, we're

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talking about GDP. It just seems
like a lot of this stuff. The

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market just feels a lot more rigged
lately. Not that not that Adams always

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felt that way a little bit,
but it just feels like there's someone behind

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the curtain pulling the strings. And
you know, every time that it seems

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like we're gonna break somehow magnificently,
we bounce back and it's pretty rapid.

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I mean, we look at last
month, everyone was calling for dooming gloam

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and you know, I would say
that it was a justified doing loom based

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on what's going on, and we
saw that thing bounce back faster than anything

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we've seen, even faster than COVID. So that's not normal behavior, you

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know. And when you when you
look at the markets over the last three

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years, most of the games have
happened like right in conjunction with earnings,

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right basically like the seven days at
the end of the calendar month, and

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that typically happens in bear market.
It's not in bull markets. So there's

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just a lot of like weird things, weird anomalies that are occurring that make

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you feel like you're in a bear
market. But yet we're right at or

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close to all time highs at least
in the SNP and the QQQ, the

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DAS, DAC of course, Russell
and retail and are telling another story.

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So usually it's the small caps that
prevail to the upside or that the that

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provide the confirmation, and right now
the small companies are struggling. Yeah,

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so uh, you know, the
economy looks bleak, but don't the stocks

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climb on a wall of worry?
Well and generally speaking, yes, I

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mean we've had like this wall of
worry all year and the stocks have kind

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of like drifted upwards. Of course, you know, it's what stocks are

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we talking about. There's a ton
of concentration right now. That Magnificent seven

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make up seven percent of this at
B five hundred right now. And if

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you were to just you know,
showing a client this the other day,

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we were to take the s to
B five hundred and show it, you

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know, year to date it's up
like eighteen percent, right, But if

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you show the equal weight version of
that which just buys an equal weighting of

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each of the five hundred companies in
the se Grade one hundred. It's only

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at like three percent, and so
it shows that capitalization and that concentration is

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really driving the returns. Now,
that's normal for a portfolio. The problem

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is is what happens when those stocks
have a bad day, or what happens

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when those spieling like self correct.
Well, that that's when it can get

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really really ugly. You know,
I'm not saying run and put your hand

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or a mattress and just and don't
invest. You have to invest. I

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mean, we've got to beat this
thing called inflation that wasn't really nowadays.

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But if you are investing, you
just got to make sure that you have

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a Yeah, you have to have
a reason to get in. You have

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to have a reason to get out. And those have to be predetermined.

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And you can't just decide one day
only think I'm gonna buy Apple and then

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the next dex they'd be like,
oh, I think I'm going to get

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out of Apple. That's not how
it works. Not If you want to

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be successful long term, you need
to have a discipline strategy that you follow

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that has a predetermined reason to get
out, and I think that a lot

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of portfolios are missing that unfortunately.
All Right, so you're not convinced about

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this bull market yet, are you. I'm definitely not. I think there's

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just too too many things under the
surface, too many cracks under the surface.

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The consumer is, yeah, they
consider is spending it's fantastic, right,

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And the government it's spending, it's
fantastic, except for when all that

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spending is built on debt. What
that leads to is a significant bubble.

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And you know, I don't know
if we're in the same snare that we

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were in like two thousand and seven
inch prior to the two thousand and two

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thousand and nine financial crisis, but
it's starting to feel similar. I Mean,

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the difference this time is it's our
government that's really in trouble, and

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the consumer is in trouble too because
of all these high interest rates and just

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because of the high credit card balances
that we're seeing. So the only thing

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that's saving us is a lot of
people were smart enough to refinance every COVID

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and so they have a little house
payment. But you know, the more

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they consume, the more the other
debt goes up and then at some point

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you hit a wall because we don't
have that eliminated credit line like the government

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has, so unfortunately no, so
we're going to hit that and when we

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do, it's not going to be
pretty, no doubt, no doubt.

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So when are we going to hit
it? Well, if I had a

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crystal ball, we'd all be kauzillionaires, right, Kerrie, I think that,

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you know, if we're looking at
it, If we're I would I

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would be looking out probably six to
nine months now. I could definitely see

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it being pushed to the other side
of the election, just from the standpoint

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that our leadership is shouldn't They're very
very good at kicking cans down the road,

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and so obviously if they can get
it to the other side of the

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election and they can blame it on
the new president, that that's that's that's

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a much easier way to do things. Right. Sore to think that there's

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not politics involved, you know,
and silly. I mean, we've we've

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seen how political things have become a
little five to six years and and and

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we're heading into next year, which
is an election year, which probably means

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a lot more yelling and screaming at
each other. Uh so you know,

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whenever we can do it to basically
distract what actually going on and Whi's actually

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going on, is that consumers are
have a hard out of time paying their

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bills, their max out on credit
cards. There's that they're not going to

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go and refinance the house to you
know, consolidate, because now they got

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to go from three percent orders to
seven percent orders to do that. So

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it's, uh, it's gonna hit
that point. And I think that it's

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one of those things where we'll all
look back and be like, oh,

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that was so obvious, right,
But it's it always it always surprises you

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still. You know. It's like, yeah, I remember when my uh

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my grandmother was really sick and then
it was like a new shoes in the

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passway. But when she did,
it's still hitting. Was like the same

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thing with these financial events. It's
like you know they're coming, you know

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they're coming, and then they get
You're like, oh, man, I

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knew what was going to happen.
I didn't do anything about it, right,

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So I don't think this time is
different, you know, That's what

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they keep telling us. Yeah,
all right, so what are we supposed

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to do here. You're supposed to
just sit here and wait for it to

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happen. Well, I think that
when we're looking into the end of this

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year, I think that, you
know, we're in an okay spot.

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When we look at kind of like
the metrics, the market internals and and

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what's going on, that looks like
we do have some upside edd into the

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end of the year. I would
definitely have stops and targets in place on

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my portfolio, you know, like
that the holding goes down my fifteenth birth

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site kind of loose. There's no
reason to hold on to it if it's

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if it's not doing what it's supposed
to be doing, and as it rises,

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take some profits on the way up. That's a way to kind of

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put somebody in your pocket. I'm
a I'm a Vegas guy, So yeah,

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you know that the casinos are down
the street from me, and the

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first role is get that, get
get your gallant money back into your pocket

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as soon as possible, right.
So yeah, So it's just be disciplined

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in what you're doing, don't be
scared. But at the same time,

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it's okay to be nimble and flexible. And right now cash is pained five

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00:10:01,919 --> 00:10:05,519
percent. I'm not a fan of
just holding cash, and I understand why

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a person would. Okay, so
so cash is king. I thought cash

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was trash, but I guess I
was wrong. So you think we're going

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to have an event. But of
course you're in the same boat as the

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00:10:22,480 --> 00:10:24,399
rest of us. None of us
know when, no, if we could

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00:10:24,440 --> 00:10:30,039
call that, and that's what gets
movies made about us. Right well,

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but I mean that it would be
it's coming. I mean, and it

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feels like this is this low peus, but like it's when it actually reaches

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00:10:41,120 --> 00:10:46,039
its indpoint. It's it's usually sudden, it's usually fast, it's usually very

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00:10:46,039 --> 00:10:52,120
painful, that's for sure. Hey, so what about the gold going up?

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00:10:52,240 --> 00:10:54,360
But what do you read into that? And the dollar goes sound?

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00:10:54,639 --> 00:10:58,840
So gold has been the primary thing
that I've been watching over the last two

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00:10:58,879 --> 00:11:03,120
weeks. You know, goal is
is definitely giving us a warning signal.

156
00:11:03,240 --> 00:11:07,039
Right now, it's it's starting to
it's been out performing would or lumber.

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00:11:07,919 --> 00:11:11,000
It's starting to outperform S and B
five hundred. And then even if you

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00:11:11,080 --> 00:11:15,080
go and you look on like the
other side of the risk off cell,

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00:11:15,759 --> 00:11:20,600
the TLT has also been outperforming the
SNP and has also been outperforming high yields.

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00:11:20,600 --> 00:11:26,320
So those are typically risk off warnings. The only thing that we're seeing

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00:11:26,360 --> 00:11:33,320
that usually like tips over to is
utilities versus the SMP. Right now,

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00:11:33,879 --> 00:11:37,519
SMP is still outperforming utilities by a
little bit. Of course, it just

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00:11:37,559 --> 00:11:41,879
depends on the timeframe that you're looking
at. But we see that flip too,

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00:11:41,919 --> 00:11:46,000
and we're kind of in like a
one risk off type scenario that means

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00:11:46,240 --> 00:11:52,480
heads your portfolio if that happens or
you know, takes the profits for sure.

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00:11:52,960 --> 00:11:56,240
Yeah, yeah, all right,
I buy it? All right,

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00:11:56,639 --> 00:11:58,919
Eddie, where do we find you
these days? How do we connect to

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00:12:00,120 --> 00:12:05,360
you on the web? Same Samuel
Attactive wealth dot com, slash Eddie Dash

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00:12:05,399 --> 00:12:09,200
Gifford or just jump on the Google
ipened Eddie Giffer. That's Eddie with a

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00:12:09,360 --> 00:12:13,399
Y E D D Y Giffer to
g I F F O r D and

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00:12:13,799 --> 00:12:18,279
you might even find me on this
show. So all right, and the

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00:12:18,360 --> 00:12:22,519
links in the show that it's this
interview on Financial Survival Network dot com.

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00:12:22,600 --> 00:12:26,840
Make sure you go there, sign
up for your free newsletter, and if

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00:12:26,840 --> 00:12:31,159
you got a question for Eddie or
myself, emails k l at Carrie LUTs

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00:12:31,200 --> 00:12:35,320
dot com. Eddie, appreciate you
taking time out for your busy day and

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00:12:35,679 --> 00:12:39,720
sharing your wisdom with us. We're
just gonna sit back and see what happens

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00:12:39,799 --> 00:12:43,200
next. All right, sounds good? Thanks? Okay, thanks for listening

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00:12:43,240 --> 00:12:50,440
to Carrie Letz's Financial Survival Network,
your solution to today's trying times. For

179
00:12:50,519 --> 00:12:56,759
the latest, go to Financial Survival
Network dot com. Financial Survival Network now

180
00:12:56,919 --> 00:13:03,039
more than ever. Cruis