Welcome to Fantasy Hockey Life, presented by fan Tracks, your source of information
and analysis to help you win your fantasy hockey league. Fuck off, that's
a step on. Stay lost. Here's your hosts Jesse Sevier and Victor Nuno
Fantasy Hockey Live backgrounds and Aaron to talk about the wonderful world of Fanny fantasy
Hockey. I am Jesse Severe from fan Tracks, joining me across the glass
Victor Nuno of Dauber Prospects. Victor, how you doing today? I'm good,
Jesse, and you might have just accidentally created a new sport, Fannie
Hockey. What is that? Fanny Hockey. That's right, and that's what
life is all about, is Fanny hockey. That's how this is gonna roll.
Yeah, Victor and I We've said this before, but we're almost to
the loopy zone of our recordings for today. Next week it's going to be
even tougher for us, I think, but we have been in this recording
for several hours. That doesn't matter. We're pressing on because we love fantasy
hockey, Victor and we love talking about it. And we're just wrapping up
our some of our rookie drafts. By the time people hear this, we
probably will be wrapped up on our rookie drafts. But it has been that
season once again, Victor. How many drafts? How many leagues totally do
you have this year? I have? I counted them up. I'm in
about twenty three leagues. Twenty of them I commission and as we don't play
in all those leagues though, because sometimes we're just running them for other people.
But yeah, it's a lot. It's a lot of leagues, and
for some reason, they all some of them happened already, but a lot
of them ended up happening this same weekend that we're recording. So it's a
lot to keep track of because all these different drafts are running at the same
time and people have issues they draft the wrong player or whatever. But also
there's just a lot to keep draft of. Like all of a sudden,
you're trying to make sure everything is running smoothly, and then then your pick
is up and you're like, oh, shoot, I actually have to think
about who I want in this league, which always makes it a bit tough.
But yeah, it's a little bit to keep straight, but it's a
good time. I've had a couple of leagues where I've had some pretty decent
players fall to me, which is always nice, but in general it's been
it's been a lot of frustration about getting sniped and all that, which is
part of the fun of draft. Absolutely, that's what I call fun.
Victor, That's what I call fun. Yeah, if people want to have
that kind of fun. It's not too late. There's why am I saying
it's not too late, and it's only the middle of August. It's actually
getting a little bit to crunch time to formula leagues, especially if it's slow.
Draft one place if you're looking for like minded individuals to talk about your
fantasy drafts and or maybe try to come together and find a group of people
who are good at fantasy hockey who would like to draft with you, come
to our Discord server. It is free to join and all you have to
do to get in there is email us Fantasy Hockey Life at gmail dot com,
hit myself up on x at fan Hockey Life, or Victor at Victor
Newnio twelve and Victor. There are more things if you want to get into
all the things that we have going on, including the Patreon. Tell people
what they could have if they wanted to be a part of that. Yeah,
great stuff over the Patreon. One of the biggest things the Tier dynasty
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get filled in as it becomes available. You have to be a patron to
do that. We also have show notes, we have patron casts, We
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out to for that prep as well, so you get other content as well.
And there's the rank list I think is the biggest thing in the prospect
ranks, so you can see forward, d goalie and twenty twenty three ranks
all in there. We also have the average Draft Position project, which please
share your drafts with us, and we're collating all that for all the patrons
to see. And it's really fun, really good stuff going on there,
so check that out if you want to support the show at patreon dot com
slash Fantasy Hockey Life. That's enough of this. It's time to get to
the show talking to Pittsburgh Penguins right after this. We'll please to be joined
tonight by a man who does Pittsburgh Penguins content for that website, The Athletic.
It is Jesse Marshall. Jesse, how you doing join? While gentlemen,
appreciate you having me on again, Absolutely, we appreciate somebody who can
come and help us work through the Pittsburgh Penguins because they really are one of
the fascinating teams of the offseason. They've had a lot of there's been some
change. This is a team that had the longest active playoffs break in North
American sports sixteen years and ended this year by one standings point, so close,
and something's really went right for the team. If you would have asked
me said the Pens missed the playoffs, I would have said it was probably
because their top two stars weren't healthy. But Crosby and Malcolm were healthy.
That was definitely no gimme coming in the injuries and performance to clients popped up
elsewhere in the roster, I would suggest, and we'll get your takes on
this too. The team has really aggressively worked for so long to keep a
competitive team on the ice around Sidney Crosby, which isn't a bad idea,
But the bill is starting to come due for that lack of homegrown top talent.
The Pens as a team last year at the fifth most shots, the
seventh most shots against, slightly below average and say percentage, but otherwise mostly
were in the middle of the road statistically, which was again where they ended
up in the standings. The team has a new GM has made some He's
already made some big moves this offseason that took out a couple of the tougher
contracts that were probably not the greatest thing for the Penguins success going forward.
So do you think the Penguins think they've done enough to get the team back
in the playoffs with a puncher's chance at a deep run this year? Jesse,
Yes, with the caveat of I don't know that the work's done.
Like the rumor mill is the rumor mill, right, and you take everything
with a grain of salt. But I do think overall that there's like credence
to the reports we hear of there being like this floated interest in Thomas Tatar
would be that would be a monumental ad if they can not monumental, but
it'd be a big ad considering all the other stuff. When you stack it
on top of all the other things they've done, it would just take them
that much closer. So I think that the answer is I think Kyle Dubis
thinks so. I think his answer would be yes. But again, I
just don't get the sense that he has completed his work, and I still
think that there are some problem contracts on the team. Jeff Carter is probably
the one. I'm sure we'll talk about at some point in the show,
potentially jettising that off the team and maybe bringing in a guy like a Thomas
Tatar who's looking for more than one year, doesn't want to do a one
year bridge deal and put all his chips in on that one year and what
if a shooting percentage were to go in the toilet. Now he's compromised at
getting another deal after that. So convoluted answer, but yes and no in
the sense that they still want they're not. I don't know that we have
a complete body of work to judge yet, but I think that the work
that they've done so far you mentioned at one standing point, right, you
gotta feel at least pretty confident that they've added that in the work that they've
done this offseason. Yeah, definitely, we'll be curious to see if they
make any other moves. Let's get into the main forwards that we're going to
talk about, and of course when I start with their star, Sidney Crosby
is still kicking. He's still doing great. We thought he'd be around the
eighteen to twenty eighth best forward in fantasy. He was righting there in nineteen
and we'll talk about will be projection for the future. It may have been
a down year for the Penguins, but not for Crosby. As a thirty
six year old. He kept up his elite production. Ninety three point pace
is about what he's done the past five seasons or so, give or take,
and that's what he did this year. Thirty three goals, sixty assists
for those ninety three points and twenty seven power play points is great. He's
got two years left at that eight point seven million, and you look at
some of the underlyings and it hasn't really regressed much. He's still really good
defensively, still generating a lot of offense. It's not like he's getting lucky
or anything like that. And I know last year when you were on,
I asked you how long he could keep this up and it seems like his
game is poised to age continue to age well as he gets older. So
do you see any kind of fall off coming from Crosby or is he just
going to be in this range eighty five to one hundred point player again this
season and maybe for another one or two after that. I mean, it
could be twenty thirty five twenty forty Victor, and I'd probably give you the
answer yes to that question. I don't think that there'd ever be a time
right but against him. I'll tell you this, guys, I watched I
turned forty this year, and I so. The reason I tell you that
is I'm old enough to have watched the entirety of Sidney Crosby's professional hockey career,
every game of it. But I also caught most of Mario's two,
especially the back end right. And I don't think there's ever really appropriate levels
of comparison between Crosby and Lemieux. When Crosby is so young, everybody wanted
to shove that comparison down your throat in Pittsburgh and try to force it to
fit, and I don't think it does. They're two totally different players.
What they share and what makes Sidney Crosby immune to this sort of standard age
based degradation is his the under the combination of vision and hockey sense that they
had. As they got older, that evolved and changed, and they no
longer became players that would go down baryling down the ice ninety nine miles an
hour, bowling people over or shoving them off. For dea and through four
or five guys. They were using the eyes in the back of their head,
changing the tempo, slowing the game down, drawing defenders in and exploiting
the open space. All those little tricks that you don't need to be operating
in one hundred miles an hour to do successfully. And if you look at
last year, Sidney Crosby ninety nine percentile and high danger passes and general in
zone shot assists. That's why. Because he can manipulate the pace of the
game, it can draw people in, magnetize people into him, and then
distribute the puck to a Jake Gensil or Ricard Raquel or maybe even an Eric
Carlson this year and boom. That's so as time has worn on, his
playmaking ability has become the foundation of his game more than it was in prior
times of his career. His goal scoring, although very strong last year,
Like I don't think his backhand is still a magical lethality every time. He's
nice, but it's he's not Deacon through five six guys anymore. That's just
the way it is. He doesn't have that pension for his game anymore.
But again, the hockey sense, the vision, the tempo control, the
ability to find people without telling the defense and the opposing goaltender what he's about
to do. I'm sorry. I'll put that up against Connor McDavid in the
elite players the league any day of the week. And while if some of
those physical elements may not exist, I don't think there's a smarter player in
the league right now, especially since Patrice Bergeron retired. But I yeah,
I so to answer your long answer, Victor, but I don't think it's
I'm not betting against him. Yeah, I've seen too much at this point
in my life to know. And the fact that he has this full off
season right where I think he's used to carrying like nagging things into the postseason
and having a short recovery period. He's coming back hungry, rested, healthy,
dangerous combination of things for Sidney Grosby, so I think it'll be more
of the same this year. Frank, I put him in the exact I
wouldn't be surprised if he gave you the same point. Total health depending obviously
it's a big part of this, but I wouldn't be surprised if in the
exact same window you just mentioned. Tremendous of Guiney Malkin. I just mentioned
about the health. If Guinny Malkin played a full eighty two games for the
first time since two thousand and eight, two thousand and nine, some of
those years were just missing a little bit. A lot of those years were
missing a lot. His point per game pace was like clockwork, with three
shots per game, over half a hit, under half a block. Right
around there, thirty six power play points were the fourth highest in if Guinny
malkin sixteen year career. He's not cup your Malkin. He's not at that
point, but he definitely is on an upward trajectory from when he bottomed out
a little bit in the COVID year, but back on this late renaissance.
If he can keep this performance going, it seems very fair that he's going
to be paid six point one million dollars for the next three campaigns. From
Pittsburgh's standpoint, do you think Malkin is going to be able to keep this
performance up healthy for a couple more years? Jesse, That's the big question,
right. It's the health piece, and a lot of the injuries that
he's been dealt over the course of the last couple of years have been lower
body like soft tissue injuries that you always wonder about, right, knock on
wood, you don't. Those are always a little tenuous. I think if
he stays healthy, yes, for sure. His shot rates were down last
year at a pretty stark rate. I think that's probably an anomaly. I
don't expect that to continue into this season. I think I'll get himself back
up there again. Potential for an appearance with a new linemate this year in
Riley Smith, who I think does a lot of transitional dirty work. That'll
take a load off of Mulkin and give him the opportunity to get back to
shooting and using his really advanced offensive skill set. I think a lot of
it will depend, excuse you, guys on Brian Rust who didn't have his
best season last year. That'll think a player that I expect to see a
with Malkin. Some of I think Malkin's numbers are down because Russ's finishing ability
was not his anywhere near his best last season. I think looking at the
sheer, Malkin could easily hit eight hundred assists. I think the dynamic of
the Penguins defense has changed in a way that Malkin and Letang are going to
spend way more time together potentially this year, and if it doesn't play out
like that, he's gonna get Eric Carlson really nice consolation prize. And again,
so the reason I mentioned this to you guys overall, Victor and just
I think Malkin's strength is in a lower burden of transitional puck carrying hockey.
If he can be the guy that gets the first pass right across the offensive
blue line, you put the puck in his hand in that transitional period,
as opposed to him taking it from deep behind his own the defensive zone and
trying to beat two thousand and nine Malkin and beat two or three guys like
that environment for him a lot better. I think that he's going to find
himself in a spot, whether it be from the Riley Smith perspective, or
again let Tang or Carlson, where the burden is just lessened on him and
he could be more of that trigger man. That's what I look forward to.
I think that's where he's at his best, and if he can get
those shot rates back up while maintaining the level of playmaking he had last year,
I think you could see. Even it's crazy to say thirty seven thirty
eight year old player gets an uptick after a point per game season, but
I don't think that's unreasonable to say given the environment he's going to find himself
in, which is, by the way, is heavy offensive zone deployments,
tons of time with really good puck moving defenseman. Hey, that's I think
for me anyway, that's a recipe for success for Guinny Walkin. Sounds like
a really good recipe to me. Yeah. Let's talk about the next forward
here, Jake Genzl and he was right in line where Jesse and I had
him coming in the season. We thought he'd be around between twenty and twenty
fifth best forward. He was number twenty five, and we thought of him
as a top tier forward this year. I don't know based on his season,
he had a bit of a down year. He was under a point
per game for the first time after being over point per game for the previous
three seasons, or at least point per game pace, and regress to his
twenty eighteen nineteen point pace this past season, where he was in that mid
to highs seventy range. So this season thirty six goals, thirty seven assists
for seventy seven point pace, lots of shots, lots of power play points,
decent blocks two actually pretty good for block shots hits at his position.
Contract year one year left at six million. That might play in here.
One thing that was interesting about Gunzil this year. He was much worse defensively,
at least by evolving Hockey's metrics expected goals against, and of course he
gains for sixties, so that was interesting. Do you think Jesse the Gunsil's
ninety point seasons are more of an outlier? Was this past season the bigger
outlier and we can expect him to move back up this upcoming season. I
would say that I think you'd expect him to move back up this upcoming season,
but he's going to miss some time. I think the Penguin has quite
honestly been a little bit generous with their advice on when they think he's going
to be back to the lineup. The original we'll say worst case scenario,
Victor will take it to the extreme. Here is twelve weeks, right,
that would put you him getting back in practice and skating with the team again
and reacclimating himself to contact at the end of October. How many weeks does
it take to get yourself ready again? I don't know. It's a week.
You're in a November now, that's if everything goes well. So he's
gonna miss time. The question is how equipped is he to deal with the
rigors of the schedule when he gets back in the lineup coming off of a
lower body ankle injury that required surgery. We don't know what version of Jake
Genzl we're going to get now that being said, Super high hockey IQ,
the son of a really good coach, Mike Genzl, is an amazing coach
himself, and you get that sense when you watch him play, and he's
probably the most adept line meat that has ever been built for Sidney Crosby just
because of his again, IQ and ability to digest the nuance of the game
that Crosby is like dumping on you like a waterfall constantly. It takes a
special kind of player to be able to deal with that. When you take
that into seration with how much better the Penguins power play is, we're talking
about over two and a half expected goals generated with Denzel on the ice for
the power play as opposed to not. He needs a really critical piece to
this offensive machine. Finishing down a little bit late last year, Like you,
I think that's really what bid him, is that the puck, especially
at the beginning of the year, was not going in. It took him
a while to catch up on the goal scoring side again pace wise, victor
pace wise. I would question whether he'll get there this year because of the
nature of his injury, and we don't know anytime it's ankle or knee or
anything like that. You just wonder about the impact it will have to a
player's mobility. Mobility is a big part of what Jake Denzil does. If
you look, if he comes back healthy, no issue. I would say,
great fantasy option if you're okay with taking the hit on games missed at
the front end, because he's probably gonna miss if at best a handful.
There's no way less than five games. In my opinion, I think he's
right around best case scenario five games. Worst case scenario, you're in a
November. But if it comes back well equipped, I think he's a guy
that could score at a ninety point pace. He's going to be again in
an environment with Sidney Crosby, Recard Rickell and it maybe Eric Carlson gonna really
be a fruitful thing for him. Do you just question where he is health
wise and what impact this injury potentially has to his health. The other thing
I'll say, though I'm contradicting myself now Victor, is that there's a potential
and I don't know this, but some people speculate was last year's down year
because he had a nagging ankle injury. Did he pick up this ankle injury
in the Beauty League and it's just like a new thing, or did he
carry it into the offseason it got better the Beauty League reactivated it. I
think there was a sense verbage wise in there from the Penguins that hinted that
maybe it was something that had bothered him before. We don't know that,
so maybe we're fixing a problem here I don't know, but at the end
of the day, you're still cutting a month of production potentially out of his
total points. Rickard Raquel I underestimated this guy coming into the year, and
that veteran seemed to thrive in his first full year in Western Pennsylvania played a
full eighty two second highest career scoring line twenty eight goals thirty two assists.
He also notched three shots and close to two hits a game Gold for US
fantasy types. Got a career high and average power play tom on ice at
three eighteen. In Pittsburgh's powerplay it wasn't quite what it once was, but
it's an awfully nice place to be to score some points, and those career
high twenty one power play points were a reason for Raquel's scoring jump overall.
He moved back and forth during the season between the Crosby Genssel line and the
Malcot Zucker line, and his five by five remaining contract is tied for the
longest future term of a Pittsburgh forward. What clicked for this guy coming in
and do you expect it to continue? Jesse, I do expect it to
continue. I think what clicked for him is he played a bit of a
light diet version, if you will, of some of the great things that
Chris Coonits did on that line traditionally with Sidney Crosby for a number of years,
which really is puck or treeble, winning those battles on the boards,
going to the front of the net and putting a stick on the ice in
some cases letting Sidney Crosby bank the pucking off of him. Not. I
don't want to be diminutive of Ricard Riquel, because he's turned out to be
a heck of a finisher. I think we've seen that throughout his career.
There's been moments in time where he'll put one in the net and you'll see
it on NHL tonight and you'll be like, what, who was that?
Brings you to the edge of your seat. Now that was back a little
bit last year. Twenty eight goals is a lot of goals, right.
That's a testament to his ability to get to scoring areas and make himself available.
So it's very simplistic, right, There's no magic sauce here. It's
all the traditional things that you would expect out of a player, getting to
the traditional areas, getting to the tough areas, winning those battles and getting
available and peeling off of a defender has done wonders for him. The nice
thing is, in Ricard Raquel's case, Mike Sullivan doesn't usually like to switch
things up in the top six, but if he does, he goes from
playing with Sidney Crosby to playing with a guinea Malkin. If you're from drafting
a winger perspective and fantasy, you want to consider the centers they're playing with.
There's no bad option for Raquel here right Like you're not going to see
him on the third line in Pittsburgh. He's I will say, this guy's
with the addition of Raquel of excuse me, Errett Carlson, it is fair
to wonder what the powerplay situation looks like for him. And do the Penguins
go to two D Do they put Latang and Carlson on the top unit together
and just go with three forwards? Because if they're going with three forwards,
Ricard Rackel is probably not going to be one right when healthy. You're probably
looking at like against Will Crosby Malkin situation. So does that chunk a bit
of points away from him? Possibly We'll see what that looks like but a
situation worth monitoring, but still very great value. I think for a guy
who's not usually a household name, you get in maybe twenty five goals from
him next year. That's still a really good number. And by the way,
Ricard Raquel in the Evolving Hockey model of goals above replacement, was the
third most valuable skeeter on the Pittsburgh Penguins last year, behind Sidney Crosby and
Josh Archibald go home Evolving Hockey's model. I think you're drunk, sa sample
size. There you go, Riley Smith, Riley Smith. You mentioned him,
Jesse, and certainly Pittsburgh fans are going to get a first look at
him. But we all watched him a lot this spring in summer in Vegas's
Stanley Cup run. Vegas's cap nightmare led them to move this original misfit for
a third round pick. This is not a guy who we expected to come
in or will expect to come in as a superstar, but it seems pretty
likely to win that left wing lottery. Like you said, maybe with Egenny
Malkin is what I think I heard you suggest. But a steady average guy
since the Knights inception and is a pretty reasonable contract for the next couple of
years. Nice bit of business. But in terms of his performance on the
ice, do you think that he will look about the same way he did
in Vegas or do you think that he's gonna extract gold playing with no pun
intend at Golden Knights with the Penguins that he's going to get here. That's
a great question, Jesse. I don't know we're going to see him in
a traditional goal scoring type of a role on that line. And again I
mentioned this earlier. His strength I think was defensive play, which Malkin needs.
A ton of transition which Malkin needs help with, and somebody who could
just do that raquel job I told you about on the top line. They
need that on the second line. And that's what Riley Smith does. He's
that conduit for me that brings that whole thing the other He's going to create
space, get to the dirty areas and make himself available. That I think
takes burden off of both Malkin and Rust in differing ways. That allows them
to focus on the things that they're good at. That also doesn't I'm gonna
contradict myself here in a second Jesse. But you traditionally wouldn't think that a
role like that would also beget you a ton of points, right, and
maybe not be the focal point of that line offensively. But Richard Keel was
doing that job and he just scored twenty eight goals. So maybe I don't
know what I'm talking about. I'll say this. I think he's this line
is going to be used again in a very I mentioned this earlier, in
a very offensive way. Mike Sullivan is going to deploy them in the offensive
zone in situations where they need a goal. They're going to feed the minutes
that are really offensive in nature. So if you think last year fifty six
points in what seventy eight games, I think he's definitely gonna be an environment
to potentially crack that. I just don't think that from a goal scoring perspective,
I'm expecting a lot assists. You know, maybe we will see a
career high there, given how good he is in transition in his role in
this line, But I expect him to have a great impact on the line's
defensive work and to get a ton of minutes on the penalty kill. So
if you're in a league that awards points for defensive stats and blocks and things
of that nature. Something to keep an eye on, because I think he
will be I would venture to say, gentlemen, probably the forward that gets
the most minutes on the penalty kill for the Penguins this year. I think
that's why they went out and got him, especially because this is a real
big pain point for them. Last year they just work a little bit of
a mess on the penalty kill. They didn't have a lot of aggressive nature
to them, not anyone that was really going on there and trying to push
the pace. That's what Smith does. It is very active out there,
and I think that that's something to keep an eye on. Is he's going
to get a lot of minutes and probably some second team power play time as
well, potentially well. Brian rust I mentioned how Raquel spent about half the
time with crossbe half the time with Malkin. Rust was on the other end
of that, seesaw in terms of switching back and forth between the lines.
According to the data we have, I've always liked rust production on this team.
He continued to point the post two and a half shots with more than
a hit per game, those are nice stats. Scoring was rough though this
past year nine point five percent shooting, way below his career twelve point three
percent shooting, and he ended up with twenty goals and twenty six assists in
those games that he did play. Was it that bounces for Rust last year?
Could he rebound a payoff for the five years left on the contract he
has? And while you're talking about that, the other thing I'm curious about
is you've talked about who's going to be on which line and what's the intel
based on there? Is this something you're reading the tea leaves and you're understanding
to the team. Has there been some quotes from coaches and stuff like that
have come out that have really let us know how telegraph what's going to happen
here? But anyway, Brian Rust, Yeah, so a couple of things,
right, I think taking your questions in reverse order, I think what
we came to learn last year is that both Mike Sullivan and Sidney Crosbike Ricard
Raquel on that top line. That seemed to be something that made everyone really
happy. So I'm expecting that to be the traditionally from a time on ice
perspective and an deployment perspective, it's rust and Malkin then have that sort of
like traditional historical chemistry. Now you mentioned the shooting percentage, Jesse, that's
right, I'm gonna throw another one at you. Two rush attempts and rush
offense put him in the forty sixth percentile of NHL forwards on that bucket last
year, and if you look at all of Russ's historically strong seasons, that
number's way higher. So his ability to be successful offensively seems to be tied
to how much rush offense he generates career year that he had not that long
ago in the past, from the points perspective, was in the ninety sixth
percentile and transition offense that year. Not a mystery, right like this,
I think these two things very much go hand in hand with each other.
When he's not feeling confident, he's a deferring type of a player, right,
He's not getting into positions to finish, He's sending that puck over to
Malkin, good, bad or worse, and becomes a little bit of a
pass. The problem with him traditionally has been consistency and the ability to put
it together for really long stretches of time. Again, going to have.
I think, regardless of where you find him, probably going to get another
crack inside the top six to start the year, probably on the Malkin line.
One of that line is going to get one of carl Center letang.
You would think, on how the split works, I'm going to be a
much different environment for him, potentially for the better. It comes down to
does that finish come back We don't know, and what does his transition offense
look like? And I feel like you can set your watch to it just
in terms of when his approach changes and dials back in that area. I
think it in hampers him. Think it hampers his ability to get into finishing
areas and be effective. Another thing I'll call out with Rust guys is that
power play piece right odd to real estate that's getting eaten up by Eric Carlson.
You assume we don't know what that looks like yet, We don't know
how they're gonna aline it or what the plan is there. But Brian Rust
is traditionally a guy that on that top unit when they're running four forwards here
and there that I wonder if that might change now you mentioned like Jeff Carter.
Of course there's several other forwards on this team, but just in terms
of from a fantasy perspective, getting into these top lines, is there anybody
else you think is regularly going to crack the top producing lines on this team?
Jesse? Just generally speaking, I'll throw a name at you to keep
an eye on that had I think some utility around them last year was Nola
Chari, who's now in here and reacquired by Kyle Dubis on a new three
year contract. It's given him a decent chunk of cash year. It all
really does all the things well that you'd come to expect from a bottom six
forward, plays with energy, hits a lot blocks, a lot of shots,
a lot of momentum stealing skill sets. I think he's gonna play a
big chunk of time again on the penalty kill in Pittsburgh, an area that
really need rebuilt after a lot of inconstrust, inconsistent struggles last year and really
lack a sense of urgency, so a cherry I think, like the other
players, Dubis has brought in posts that strong defensive return keeps the puck out
of the out of his own zone altogether. But the given the fact that
he's a puck retriever that north the South pace, constantly putting himself in positions
to generate a lot of takeaways. I expect Mike Sullivan loves that kind of
guy, right, and that true utility forward that can fill in a gap
anywhere up and down the lineup without causing at the significant level of nosedive drop
off. He's not going to score a ton of points, right, But
I think given the style of play that he employs and the way the Penguins
four check, that is a name that may see surprise time in the top
sex talk about the gap that a Jake Genzl creates at the beginning of a
season. Hey, maybe that's the face we see filling in that time here
and there alongside Sidney Crosby in a rotational base. I don't know, we'll
see, but it's I think one of significance for me and that when you're
around and hear people talk about the signing, it's one that everyone in the
organization seems to be like, low key abuzz about and a player that Kyle
Deubis and his staff developed a great affinity for in their previous experience with Yeah,
great stuff on the forwards. We're gonna move on to the blue line
now, and for the first time in a long time, we were not
going to talk Chris Latang first when we come to this blue line. So,
yeah, I wonder what happened. Yeah, so Eric Carlson, obviously
we are get to cover him again because previously we covered him in the San
Jose team preview. But now he's a Penguin and we gotta dissect what's going
to happen here. You've already alluded to some of the big question marks here.
We don't really know how they're going to set up the power play.
We could talk all about what he did in San Jose, but I don't
think any of that's really that relevant to what's going to happen in Pittsburgh because
he had all the time, all the opportunity, and things are going to
shift now they have two great offensive defense when they have great offensive weapons at
forward, But do they line one of them up and a shooting role?
Do they do they put them both out there? Do they alternate? I
saw what happened with Burns and Carlson, and it just never really worked with
the two of them out there. And obviously lit Tang's a different player,
But you what is your sense of what they're gonna do. It's gonna these
two could just eat into their fantasy relevance and neither can be as good,
or they could somehow make it work and they're both great players. But what
is your sense of how they're gonna work this out? Jesse? Yeah,
I think they're both gonna play twenty six minutes at night, I do.
I think that's what's gonna happen is the Penguins are going to really deploy two
pairings hot, and then that turns their third pairing, which will have Pierre
Olivier, Joseph and I and probably Chad Rue Wheedle, that is going to
be scantily used, probably mostly after special team situations, post power play,
things of that nature. Those guys will handle those minutes extraordinarily well, but
they're just going to be scant I think that you'll probably see, if I
had to guess, Marcus Patterson be the guy who plays alongside Eric Carlson.
Patterson being the more defensive specialist, really not concerned about joining the rush or
participating in offense at all. That to me screams Eric Carlson partner. Because
you need somebody back there to take care of the business that will undoubtedly get
made from him joining the rush and being that sort of fourth forward that will
put I think a little bit of it's that defensive defenseman that allows him to
flip the switch and not be concerned about what's going on defensively, so he'll
have that going for him. Look, this is just a puck mover right
at the end of the day, a guy who can distribute and move the
puck in an absolutely insane way, who's probably looking at a situation where he's
going to get a scooping helping of minutes with Sidney Crosby, who we just
said is still one of the best players in the world when it comes to
seeing the play and breaking it down and making offensive contribution. At the end
of the day, this is going to be a unique circumstance for him,
and I think one that I will never You'll never catch me saying that.
I think another hundred point season is on the horizon for him, right because
that's so hard to do and we hadn't seen it happen for some time for
a reason. But I don't think that you write him off. I don't
think he's going to drop down to the eighty point threshold all of a sudden
and just crash and burn. I still think that there's a lot of value
here. The Penguins are just for me anyway. You take the Crosby thing
into consideration. Against will be there when he gets back, But just the
system is I think a little bit more aggressive and more welcoming of his sort
of philosophies, if you will. So all of that into consideration, right,
I think you're looking at a much different situation for him going into this
year. Let's not neglect Chris Latang though, because he is He's an outstanding
defenseman in his own right. He was actually the eighth best defenseman in fantasy
hockey last year and absolute top tier guy. These two years of good health
were great, those two. That is, in the last year it fell
off. He missed some time off the ice, there was some knicks and
bruises, and then there was some really nasty personal stuff that he was dealing
with as well. That certainly is not on him. If you allege that
he doesn't stick injuries out, if you want to say that it's because he's
not tough enough, dude took a puck to the face, was bleeding everywhere,
and came back out the next game. Last year, Latang is tough,
There's no doubt about it. Optimistic view would be that forty one points
in a sixty four game season will bounce back in the new year in past
those challenges of last year. The pessimist would say, he's thirty six.
He's sharing the blue line with a better offensive defenseman for probably the first time
in his career. I would venture to guess, which side are you on?
What kind of Chryst Latang performance do you think that we'll see this year?
Jesse. The interesting thing here is you start to get into the nuance
of how his environment's changed. If not just a Carlson Pieces partner for the
first time in a long time, is not Brian Doom And I think most
people in Pittsburgh would tell you that's a good thing. Last year that just
that partnership did not work. Dumolin struggled mightily. The sort of quote unquote
safety valve for Latang was no longer there, and did this harmony between that
unit affected both of their play negatively. So Ryan Grave steps in and he
is, for all intents and purposes, the guy who's probably going to get
the minutes alongside Latang in this new and new rebuilt defense from Kyle Dubis.
And I think most people are expecting that to be a positive, potentially even
to lessen the burden. And I'll give you guys an example too. Think
of it this way. Jesse teams last year targeted Brian Dumlin on entry right
knowing that whether they were dumping it in, skating it in, they were
going to press him and create a burden on Christang that potentially this year that
goes away. And I think that just from a thinking of from the perspective
of being a defenseman, that really changes your mindset and how often you can
take a green light when it's presented to you to jump into the play,
to pinch, to be risky if you don't have that nagging thought in the
back of your head of this hasn't been working out. My partners struggling,
we have. We've been allowing a ton of odd man rushes. All of
the video review is about us, that's not about You're Probably you're gonna be
a little bit more hesitant. So I think this is a situation potentially Jesse
or Iron Sharp AND's iron and I know you're not. You're not going to
see Carlson and Latange play together. I think unless it's the end of a
game and Mike Sullivan's putting out the Transformer Juggernaut to try to get a goal,
all intents and purposes aside, that'll exist, right, But we haven't
traditionally seen Mike Sullivan used Smalkin and Crosby together. That was very much a
thing that Michelle Terran and Dan Bosman would save for the end of a game
or when they were down a goal and needed one. But he won't.
He doesn't even really do that anymore. I think that they'll distinctly carry their
own identities on this team. Those identities will be inherently similar, but I
think that they'll be separate enough that outside of the power play, we may
not really see them interact much at all. Yeah, and I think you
said they're both right shots, Latang and Carlson, So like you said,
you don't want to have him out there too long together, or at least
it's not optimal. So Ryan Graves, I will just say, yeah,
he is definitely a guy that the Penguins are investing in, and he played
for the Devil's last two seasons. Last year, point every three games,
two shots, two blocks, and a hit every game twenty minutes. He
was out there for seventy eight games, and he's got a long future investment
of six years four point five her. He really was getting buried in New
Jersey's defensive system. But he should really get a good opportunity, like you
said, with the Penguins. So in terms of his importance to Latang,
I think you've covered that. You see a impact in terms of Graves himself
being somebody who's going to have good production stats for this team. Again,
we're going to be looking at him in a situation where he's gonna be deployed
even strength and a lot of high leverage offensive situations. But here's what I'm
looking at, guys. His quality of competitions about to get a significant moment
and quality of players he sees on the other side of the ice, some
of the difficulties of deployments. Potentially that'll all change. They are not going
to ask him to be a transitional puck distributor on this pairing. That is
not going to be the ask. I think if he can do that,
if Latang gets targeted if you will, and they're really loading up on him.
A graves can do it great, But I just I don't know what
this role, if you will, spells for him offensively. Although the environment
will be friendly to him and all who have talented players around him, I
just I don't know that they're going to ask him to do things that put
him in a position to score a lot of points. Namely, we know
Latang likes to join the play. We know he's going to want to join
the rush. You can't have two defensemen on the same pairing doing that work.
You have no one back. You could do it, but you'd look
a lot like the Buffalo Sabers from a couple of years ago. So I
think that ultimately, when you get down to it, I'm providing a tale
of caution here from a fantasy perspective, because I know I think the potential
is high, it also comes with a great bitter risk just in that deployment.
Wise, in his role, you may see him be asked to be
a little bit more discerning about how he participates in the game offensively. Yeah,
good points, Especially the quality of competition. That's a really underrated thing
that people just assume you can increase minutes or switch them around. It's not
equivalent. It's not the same. Yeah, and let me throw this at
you two Victor. Last year he was just really not good at all in
elevating his teammates with passing. And I think that's why the Penguins are comfortable
with him not having this like super active role in the offensive side. Is
I think it's like sub ten percentile defensively in terms of like passes that led
to a shot or a scoring chance. He throws a lot of rubber at
the net. Sure, yeah, great at that, but I think that
he lacks the discernment. But if you think about that logically, like super
low percentile and setting up passes and shot attempts for your teammates super high percentile
and taking the shots yourself, that kind of tells a little bit of a
narrative, right, like, I don't maybe you're taking too many shots.
I don't know, So I think maybe that's I think why maybe the Penguins
are like comfortable saying, hey, cool, we're not even gonna put you
in that situation. We're not going to ask you to do that. Go
out there and follow fifty eight Yeah, that's a good plan. Just follow
him. I want to ask you about a couple of the depth defensemen you
mentioned Pierre Olivier, Joseph Poj and Tye Smith is another guy. Both these
guys are two young players who haven't quite translated their games successfully. I would
say to the NHL. We did see Smith spent some time in the HL
and then came back and did a little bit better in the NHL, and
Poj has been someone who's been They spend most of the time this season in
the NHL and in a little bit more of a sheltered, isolated role.
So you mentioned that you thought Poj would be third line. Do you think
ty Smith gets a look do Either of these guys have probably not upside this
year because they got the two big guns now, but what do you think
the future holes for these two? Yeah, ty Smith rough year, not
cap casualty at the start of things, didn't get any time with the team.
It's just a result of the situation from a money perspective. Run Hextall,
I think, really put himself in a pickle there at the start of
the year, but then didn't play well enough in the American Hockey League to
wow, anyone or warrant some kind of call up. Didn't play his way
into the league, and then when he was in the NHL, it was
fine, it was okay, but it wasn't. You wouldn't. I don't
think, say, you know anything better than what Pierre Olivia Joseph gave you.
So look this again. I think this is going to be a really
reduced role for whoever gets this job. I think you're talking about limited minutes
and a very much a babysat deployment, if you will. That's spoon fed
in a way of playing t ball. Here a little bit. You've got
tang and or Carlson taking up a lot of the tough stuff, and then
you're left with your bat and clean up. I think I think it's gonna
be Poj. He exhibited a lot of offensive competence for his role last year.
I don't think I matriculated in terms of points, but if you look
at the micro data, he was able to support the play in ways that
I don't think Tye Smith was. So I think it's Poj's job to lose.
I expect him to use a little bit more of the game's played savvy
he has in recent history to his advantage. But again, this role has
just been neutered so badly by the arrival of Eric Carlson that it's just almost
fruitless to even sniff around these parts, just because at the end of the
day, I think it's just really going to be a limited role. Yeah,
good point. All right, let's move on to the goalies. So
the Penguins had the twenty second ranked expected goals against per sixty according to Evolving
Hockey, gave up only the nineteenth ranked actual goals, so they were a
little bit better than expected. Tristan Jarry got the big contract five point three
seventy five for five years. He was pretty good overall in terms of like
volume nine or nine say percentage, but his goals expect goals above expected was
a little negative, as was his delta Fenwick at even strength, so he
a little bit underperformed there. And they don't have Cases the Smith anymore.
They have a new backup. Do you think Jarry's role changes at all?
I got the money, he's the guy. I'm not sure we can expect
too much different from him. Maybe a little bit improvement from those numbers.
What do you think Jarry season has in store. I don't think anyone knows
the victor spin the wheel, Where does the land? Where does the Tristan
Jarry wheel land Today? There's a gross lack of consistency around his performance.
We have to acknowledge that first, and then we have to talk about his
availability. Right, his health is a problem. Last year especially, he
was nagged all season long by recurring I don't know nobody really ever said it
was the hip, but you get the sense from watching him that it was
the hip. And he kept referencing like an issue that was affecting his mobility,
so growing hip something like that. Right, Maybe one of those two
that is what the wheel landed on last season is that we got this incomplete
picture of Tristan Jarry because of his health. And then the last year's we
got this incomplete picture of Tristan Jarry because of his health. And then the
year before that it was really good and he got to the All Star Game
and then it fell out. Two things, I'll tell you one, health
consistency tantamount to the Penguins getting into the postseason. Because Alex Nidelkovic I don't
think is the solution long term at goal. I don't think that they've that's
a that's a that to me is perhaps an equivalency to Casey to Smith,
and just Casey to Smith, someone else who had consistency issues and appearance issues
that that may have been the core of the decision to move on there.
But Jarr's got to get it. He's got to prove a lot of stuff
to people. People in Pittsburgh are very skeptical of this contract. I don't
like giving term to goalies period, unless they're Igor Sterkin or one of the
generational talents that you have out there right now. I just I'm so leery
of it. And with Jarry we have there's just so many things that have
never playoffs. His playoff track record up to this point is abysmal, abysmal,
not good at all, horrible. You take that hand in hand and
you look, and I'll say this, people maybe listening to this podcast saying,
oh, Jesse, you're crazy. There's no difference between the regular season
and the playoffs for a goalie. Tell that to Sergey Bobrovski, like up
to this year, but this is a totally different guy in the postseason than
he was in the regular season. And I you just don't have that solution.
That answer doesn't exist for Tristan Jerry, and that's such a big question
mark, right, It's a huge question mark. And then there's chunks of
the regular season where he lights out best guy in the league, all Star
caliber golie that like you come back from the All Star Game and it's like
the bottom falls out. So he's just never stretched it end to end.
He's never been a starting goalie from the beginning to the year of the year
to the end of the year. That has never happened, right, Like,
he's never given you that full example of what he can do in a
consistent and regular basis. Kyle Dubez is betting he's going to do that this
year, but it would be the first time that had happened. So I
guess color me skept the goal, right you old George W. Bush say
fool me once, shame on me, fol me twice, Yanga, fool
me again. That's how I am right now. I just until I see
it. It's great to talk about the possibilities, guys, but there are
just possibilities until they matriculate. Let me tell you something, Jesse. There's
a lot of people who listen to the shows that say, Jesse, you're
crazy, but none of it that you said, so you don't have to
worry about that. Instead, you've brought us some great takes tonight. Information
on this Penguins team. Why don't you let people know how they can keep
up with all the work you've got going out there, Jesse. Yeah,
Penguins specific work you'll find at the Athletic dot com. I'm just talking about
them there, but then at mckeyons they let me talk about whatever I want.
In the National Hockey League that's usually non Penguin related. So depending on
what you're in the mood to read, one of the two are generally opposite
of each other. So generally Penguin's at the Athletic and everything else in mckeens
talky outstanding. Thank you so much for coming on today, Jesse, and
good luck following those Penguins this year. Yeah. Just you know your listeners
won't know this, guys, but I made you punt the show from yesterday
to today because I had a child that wouldn't sleep. Thanks for being flexible
as always, appreciate it, No no problem, Glad to have you here.
Wilson. That's good. Fire passed up Oh my goodness, walk go
with a cat quick grab. Now it's your weekly Goalie Talk with Cats Silverman
Cat's Instincts. Time again for Cat's Instincts with Cat Silverman of INGL Mag Pittsburgh
Penguin Edition. And we definitely have a couple of good ones here to talk
about. I wouldn't say that their system has a ton of depth, but
they got I think at least one really good one, maybe two. And
the first one we're gonna talk about Joel or Joel bloom Quist, twenty twenty
second round pick by Pittsburgh six two hundred and eighty three pounds. Kim up
in the car pat system, and we know you like that system for goalies,
and he was in car Pot pretty much the whole season this past year,
played one game in the HL. I believe there was even some discussion
of him blowing off some international appearance that because he wanted to come to North
America and be in the HL. He also played one game last season in
the HL, so anyways, interesting for him. His trajectory looks decent.
He's up at twenty seven percent chance of being an NHL with a really strong
LEGA performance this year. He's got some decent comps. One of them.
I think that seems to fit a little bit as Jordan Binnington, who's an
average starter in the Liga. Some of his underlying numbers show that he was
one of the better goalies and saved percentage above expected, but more average and
goal save above expected. So kat is bloom Quist the next starter for the
Pens. What do your instincts tell us about Yoel Bloomquist now that he is
the only goaltender left from that little era? Were they nice a little slew
of goaltenders if they have traded playing to the Anaheim Ducks to join Lucas Dostall
there, Yeah, I think he's probably the next starter. He's an interesting
goaltender because he is a Finnish national. He's from a unique part of Finland.
He's from right across the border from Sweden, so he's actually a Swedish
speaking Finnish player with a Swedish name, which is fun. The only other
player that I know from that area is a former Vancouver Canucks draft pick,
Jonathan Elatti, who played for the junior system. I believe he played for
the national team when they won silver back in twenty ten or eleven. And
that's just like a fun little area where the players get access to some of
the Swedish goaltending systems. But then they also are a Finnish nationality, so
they get to go and play in the fin on the Finnish teams. And
you see that in the way the Bomquist plays because a lot of those Finnish
goaltenders are a little more aggressive. They like to come out to the top
of the crease. They play a little bit more of a vertical game where
they move forward and backwards very aggressively. They stay a little bit lower and
from Vlomcosts you see a little bit more of that Swedish style where he stays
a little bit more conservative, a little closer to the goal line, makes
more of those lateral movements, stays just a little bit calmer, and has
a more instinctive game from his knees than he does from his feet. But
he's a lot of fun to watch because he does play such a good hybrid
system where he gets some of the aggression and he's able to use his hands
really nicely like some of the Finnish goaltenders, and then he gets that good
smooth skating from some of the Swedish goaltenders and really seems to know when to
utilize different parts of his game to thrive. So I'm excited to see how
he does. It seems like he's ravenous to come to North America and start
playing here, which is exciting for Penns fans in particular. I think that
having a goaltender that you know is going to be a promising prospect who really
wants to come over and play in your system. That's all any team can
ever hope for. So I think he probably will need a year of HL
time at least, but it looks like he's been doing well over in Finland,
so we'll see how he does when he comes over. Yeah, his
one game each of the last two seasons probably not enough in the HL too
get acclimated. So yeah, we'll give it a year. We'll check back.
Anon blown Quiz, I love that about the blend of Swedish and Finnish
styles that hopefully he takes the best of both worlds. That would be the
ideal. Super cool. All right, let's talk about the next guy,
and that is Sergei Muroshov. He was twenty twenty two, fourth round pick
six one hundred seventy pound. He's in the locomotive system over there in Russia.
Primarily played in the MHL this past season, but did have one KHL
game which went very well, thank you very much. And he actually looks
really good in the Hockey pros specking system. I'm pretty sure that this system
favors MHL goals if I remember correctly, and from what I've seen, it
definitely does. He's up at forty six percent chance of being an NHLer,
which is really high, and he started at forty three. So he's got
a bunch of really interesting comps, guys like Philip Gustafson, Kelly klang Leet
Nabakov which is not the Genny version of the Nabakoff, and Nikolai Hobby Bullen
is actually someone that he looks somewhat like in this system, and that would
be a good outcome. He was a pretty good NHLer. It's in the
MHL system for the sport contract. They have these underlyings and he was like
near the top of that league and just about every metric save percent above expected,
goal save above expected So, Kat, what are your instincts tell us
about Sergey Miershov. He looks like he's going to be a lot of fun
whatever is going on in Euros level right now and the Locomotive system. I
know that the Arizona Hearties picked two players from there. I believe both of
their first round picks we're from that system. So whatever they're doing over there,
it's exciting the NHL emensely, which is great. But I was looking
up some of Miroshov's numbers and stats and a little bit about his style,
and he looks like he was almost out playing the rest of the MHL last
year, like he should have been playing at a higher level, because just
to start off the season beside the last year, the year before, he
had six shutouts in the first two or three months of the season. He
was the number one goaltender for the month for a couple of months in there
at that league level. But it's good that he got the game reps in
because that's where sometimes you see when a goaltender looks like they're doing really well
and then they essentially get bumped up and don't get to play as many games
because they're trapped in the system behind someone else. So I don't think he's
going to come over to North America anytime soon, because the jump from the
MHL. Usually you see those players go to either the VHL or KHL full
time for a year or two first and then come over. But it'll be
exciting to see how he does when he moves to play against what, for
lack of a better term, I can really only describe as players who look
more up to his speed because he was out playing his competition in the last
couple of years biowide margins. So Pittsburgh seems to be doing that. They
keep taking these guys who they can hold on too, that really they don't
need to immediately make room for, but who look absolutely stellar wherever they're playing.
So they're not taking any of those high flying bets that they're not taking
guys that have two games played in a league somewhere else that are super tall,
but we don't really have any knowledge of. They're taking guys that they're
getting good sample sizes from, which is smartened, which I think is the
responsible way to accumulate your goaltending system, which they need at this point.
They have Trisan, Jarry and I believe still Casey to Smith, who are
good goaltenders, but they're reaching the point where within the next couple of years
they're going to need to start bringing someone else up to the NHL level,
And it seems like they're doing a good job of keeping their timeline where it'll
be a seamless transition for them, which is handy. Yeah, so,
sir Gray Murshav, maybe to three years down the line, maybe he'll keep
progressing and be one of their be a future goaltender for the Pens. Thanks
so much, Kat for giving us your instincts on the Pittsburgh Penguin goalie system.
Will be back right after this the Dynas b J the Pittsburgh Penguin edition
of The Dynasty dig Boy. This is gonna be It's gonna be an episode
because Victor, you only have this system ranked twenty ninth, and that is
based on a low volume of prospects in whom you have interest. In fact,
today we are only we are breaking precedent the entire history of the Dynasty
dig I think we've covered three every one of these team preview episodes too.
Now it's only going to be two, and let's start out Victor with your
no brainer. No brainer is Braden Jager. Yes, their best prospect is
the one they just drafted. That is the state of this system. Pittsburgh's
first round pick, fourteenth overall from twenty twenty three. He's a six foot
one hundred and seventy pound center. He had twenty goals and fifty assists for
seventy eight points and sixty seven games for Moosejaw of the WHL, his D
minus one. He was both a WHL and CHL Rookie of the Year,
so that's pretty fantastic. Didn't he had a really good draft season, but
it wasn't maybe as good in terms of that perspective his draft season. He
did win the Clinka Gretzky Gold of Canada, which was nice, and due
to his age, he has two more years likely of WHL before he can
go to the HL unless he makes like a really big jump there, which
is possible. At this point, he's still unsigned with the team, but
I would imagine they're going to give him a contract as their best prospect.
In terms of the tracking data from Mitch Brown, overall, he's at a
sixty seventh percentile offense though was definitely the best part where he was at eighty
fourth goals per sixty sorry expected goals per sixty just above one standard deviation,
so around eighty seventh percent dial or so, and the slot passes and slop
pass success also really good. He also was really good in primary points involvement,
which was good game score. The worst part is definitely his defense,
just a twenty fifth percentile defender. Pretty much all of his metrics look pretty
pretty ugly, pretty red. In particular, some of his transition data,
like controlled exits for sixty, he looks pretty low, but some of it
looks pretty good, like his entry is in relative success. So there's a
mixed bag there in terms of his transition in defense, but offense looks really
good. And to hear a little bit more about Braden Yeager, let's hear
from our FHL scout. Yes, indeed, Victor, and our scout today
is Tony good old Tony Montreal Man. In his different iterations of Fantasy play,
he says that Braden Yeager has good skating and is always around the puck,
passing and handling good as well. Usually shoots first and ask questions later.
In terms of that shooting, a borderline elite shot, ready to shoot
all the time from the top of the face off dots down to the goal
line. He is deadly IQ, he says. Braden Yeager seems to have
a great IQ able to get a shot, offensive anticipation top notch. Didn't
see a whole lot of defense out of him in his looks at Yeager,
but he did see some shorthanded time and the panic meter seems to be zero
for checking. Another thing that Tony didn't observe. A whole lot of needs
to be more aggressive to be successful at the NHL level for defense. Also
didn't see a whole lot of defense he was playing. Maybe should say that
Tony saw him more modern day defense where you use your stick to block shots.
The asset Tony rinked out his best was the play in the offensive zone.
High IQ, borderline elite shot. That offensive stuff you're talking about,
Victor, and the biggest concern lack of defense and aggressiveness in the ozone the
top tier potential. What's the top outcome we could get out of mister Yeager?
Tier one offense is this thing borderline elite shots, some ability to get
them through, although that's dependent on teammates getting him the puck, lots of
power play time. The median outcome for him doesn't get more aggressive and play
defense a little bit better. He's probably more of a Tier three power play
type with limited third line minutes. Stylistic comparable he would say, Tony would
say a better skating, A way better skating and hopefully more consistent scoring.
Tomash Tatar. In terms of the p NHL E equivalency model from our NHL
rank King Mason Black, he's my king. He sees Braden Yeager's numbers taking
him between first line and second line potential, his top similarity score Dustin Brown,
that'd be a nice career, and second and third Joe Polano and Matt
Beniers. These things I always this is cool stuff, all right. Braden
Yeager is up in the competition against uber US national development team score Gay Pero,
and in terms of Yeager versus Pero, who were both drafted this year,
Yeager nine spots ahead of Pero. Pero comes out away ahead. In
terms of the public results. People seemed to like all them points that he
was scoring with the national team, and so it was seventy five to twenty
five in terms of proportion. Victor, Is it that lopsided Paro over Yeager?
I think so, but that's not to say that Yeager isn't a good
prospect because he is. He's just the best prospect on a really bad pool.
But yeah, I like Yeager. I think he certainly has some pretty
decent potential. But gay Pero the records he broke at the USNTD B I
think of all the best fours that have come through the USNTDP, like your
Matthews and your Killers and Jack Hughes, gay pro outdid them all, and
people can say, and I certainly have to some extent that I thought he
was a bit of a passenger. But he's still an excellent player who knows
how to score and who knows how to get to the right places. He
has Fittspeed's kind of a problem, but he's just such a smart player and
the way he creates and adapts two of the players around him and generates offense.
The biggest concern for me for Paro is that he's in the Ranger system,
who has pretty much shown that they are terrible at developing prospects, and
gay pro needs a lot of development. He needs time, he needs certain
things to work on. It's good that he's going in the college route.
It's bad that he's going with his buddies, although he may not play with
him the whole time, but he really needs to round out his game.
But I think if Perro does, and you hit the ninetieth percentile outcome or
even the eightieth or seventieth percentile outcome, I think gay Pro is going to
have a much better NHL career than Braden Yeager. So yeah, I would
smash that button for gay Pro as well. I think he has much higher
upside. The hockey prospecting has him more than double the star potential of Braden
Jager at fifty three percent to nineteen, and the NHL or probability is also
higher. If you look at some of the comparables for Braden Jager, there's
some pretty good ones. A lot of them are Brandon Saw and Matthew Perro
types, and then of course there's a token Brady Kachuk that no one is
really but he is a star potential with the lower who ended up who started
with a much lower potential and ended up excelling and succeeding in all of those
areas. So Yeager probably a lot less likely to be a star than Prow
and some of these other guys. The top down hockey model a little more
pessimistic on him, but eight percent chance of being a star, thirty four
percent chance of being in an each other. Not horrible, but definitely a
little bit downballot for Braden Aager. Yeah, I think he's still still good.
He's going to be their prize prospect for a while, just like Samuel
Poulan was for so many years, and then it looks like he's going to
be a bust. So we'll see about Yeager. I hope he doesn't end
up that way, but at this point, who knows. It can go
a lot of different ways. We'll have to wait and see how he develops.
That was number one victor. Now we're going to talk about your other
guy. Who is your keep your eye on prospect? Who is it?
Yeah, so the only other one we're talking about in this system basically is
Owen Pickering. Pick Pickering, That's what I always say. Right now,
we'll see twenty twenty two first round pick, twenty first overall, six four
one hundred and eighty five pound left handed d really large frame and needed to
grow into that and has to some extent. Nine goals thirty six assists in
sixty one games for Swift current of the WHL. He also played eight games
for the Wilkes Barre Scrand Penguins, which was nice. Didn't have any points,
but it was nice to see him get a little bit of a look
there in the HL after the WHL season. But he will be back in
the in the WHL sorry this upcoming season. He's a January twenty seven birthdays,
so not eligible for the full AHL season this upcoming year. Looking at
the tracking data, Pickering looks really great pretty much across the board. A
little bit lower on defensive coursie against, but good at denying entries and retrievals.
Pickering's expected goals per sixty is one of the tops in the entire CHL
for a defenseman. That's pretty incredible. You don't usually see defenseman get quite
that high, so that was that's really great to see, and a lot
of his other metrics are really good. Some of his transition play is a
really good advantages created expected primary points game score all that looks pretty fantastic for
Pickering. So looks like he's going to be able to translate his game to
the next level, which is nice to see. I don't know how many
points he's going to score. He starting his cooring a LON jr. So
let's have to see if that can transfer to the HL. But let's hear
a little bit more about Owen pickering from our FHL scout, Jesse. Our
FHL scout in this case is Punit, and he has the following to say
about pickering In terms of skating good east west skater with strong forward acceleration and
long strides. Puck handling average to good. When in the defensive zone,
he tends to make short crisp passes to the open man or out rather than
long stretch passes. He's shown that he's able to carry the puck out of
the defensive zone, but typically defers to the short pass. The talent is
there, the confidence may so far be lacking the shot. A powerful slap
shot and wrist shot, has no hesitation in shooting, comfortable in skating up
closer to get a more accurate shot when the opportunity arises. IQ he uses
his stick and size to prevent zone entries. However, he does easily get
caught in scenarios where he's unable to focus on multiple attackers, which may give
up puck possession. At times defense the defensive skills need improvement. He needs
to be more aggressive when the puck carrier enters the zone. He allows too
much time and space for the opposition, which gives them an opportunity to plan
ahead when entering the zone. Seems to rely on his size and reach rather
than closing the gap. The best asset good forward skating and speed from a
stationary position. Good to average forward skating and lateral movement when positioned on blueline
making shots or keeping the puck in opposing team zone long stick difficult for opposing
players to gauge how much space they have. Six four height is an advantage,
biggest concern plus the backward skating it needs improvement. Crossover still look unrefined.
He may still be getting used to his overall frame, which may be
a contributor to his skating development. His skill level is trying to catch up
with his body development. He also needs to put on a little more weight
to match his height. While in front of the net. He tends to
get pushed around when jockeying for position. So what's the top tier outcome here?
For pickering? Tier two? If he can increase his shot rate and
add more size to his frame as a defenseman. He's not shy when it
comes to taking the shot, but could definitely shoot a little more. Best
case is that top four defenseman most likely tier the median outcome top tier three
based on his entry into the NHL. Tier three is widely regarded as a
shutdown defender an effective playmaker. Depending on what's in front of him at Pittsburgh,
he may have a solid chance to pushing his way up higher. Stylistic
comparable from a Penn's player, Comparable maybe similar to a Brian Dumlin, but
with higher upside summary. Pickering looks good for the most part, but doesn't
look as confident on the ice as he did when he played on the Broncos.
Could be a new system, new team, is just getting used to
everything being different. Our NHL rank King Mason Black has him pulling himself up
over the second line potential this year. His number one cop Kale Flurry and
then Rasmus Rista Lyinen and Jared's Virgin and Owen Pickerin is going to be compared
in the poll today to Shamus Casey, one of the big the big defenseman
of that draft, but one actually who went a full round after pickering in
it. So the poll out there, the NHL ranking poll where the public
had devoted it took Shamus Casey pretty decisively, fifty eight to forty two.
Victor. Is that what you would do with Pickering versus Casey? Oh?
I said pick pickering, but I'm not sure about that. It's interesting.
So I didn't realize this, but someone mentioned this on Twitter and I looked
it up, and it turns out that Shamus Casey, a defenseman has been
playing, was playing some center and the NC Double A at the University of
Michigan, which is interesting. And I'm not really sure if that's a long
term plan or just because they had too many defenseman what But if he has
the potential to switch to being a center, I'm not really sure if that's
good for him. But it is just interesting to notice he was really good
and maybe that explains some of his increased point potential in the NC Double A
if you're playing forward. He had twenty nine points in thirty seven games for
a sixty seven p NHL E which is pretty nice. But yeah, again,
if you're doing that with some for admnutes, I didn't I couldn't find
out exactly how many minutes he played where, but it is interesting to see.
I'm not sure how the Devils feel about that either, probably drafted as
a defenseman and wanted him to stay there. But Casey did increase his star
potential up to twenty one percent after fifteen in his draft season, so it
seems I think I'd rather go with Casey. So I think I'll go with
the listeners here or the poll voters. But I do think that it's a
little disappointing the system that Casey is in. Right's got so many people ahead
of him. We've obviously you've got Hamilton there, and you have Luke Hughes,
and you have Simonnemas there. So I don't think that Casey really factors
in in terms of getting any powerplay time there for a very long time.
And from that perspective, you might want to take pickering because he's going to
be one of the few high end prospects that they're going to have. Of
course, by the time he gets there, I think Pittsburgh might be in
a full rebuild, so it might not be terribly exciting. So I think
you do have to keep into it, keep it all into account a little
bit. But either one of these guys might be traded. In fact,
I think they're both candidates to be traded because of the team situation, so
in that sense, they might both be interesting. But I would take Casey.
Pickering, for his part, has just an eight percent chance of being
a star, and he kept that steady a year to year, so it'll
be interesting to see if he is able to increase that. His NHLA probability
went up but his star potential stayed the same. In terms of some other
guys he looks like in the Hockey Prospecting model, and he looks like George
and Spence, who we don't really know what he's going to be yet,
And another one he looks like is Kevin Shattenkirk, who is certainly a star,
had some struggles with two way play, but had a lot of power
play time. I'm not sure that I necessarily see that so much from Pickering,
but he could step into that role if needed, so yeah, a
little bit of a lower upside. The Jay Fresh card also looks pretty pessimistic
on Pickering, just two percent chance of being a star and sixteen percent chance
of being an NHL or so a little bit more disappointing overall, this whole
system pretty disappointing, sad actually, And we were going to talk about the
third guy, but I was pointed out to us that he's playing with Philip
Plander's playing overseas, and I didn't really see anyone interesting to talk about.
So rather than do that, we'll just mention these two. And usually we'd
say there's a lot more guys to talk about, but there really aren't.
But I will still try to make my way through a top ten list of
the Pittsburgh Penguin prospects. That is going to be a challenge, Jesse,
but that's going to happen. And if you're interested in doing some scouting with
us, you can give me a damn on Twitter or Discord or email us.
Yeah, if you run out of prospects on that show, Victor,
just start ranking something else. Top ten chewing Gums, Top ten television shows
of nineteen ninety five. Who whatever you want to do if you're run out
of time, I don't mind that. I'm sure the patrons in one either.
The voice you hear after this music will be me quoting up, finishing
up in just a minute bit. A couple of things to remind you of
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So listen to that if you're into a little more prospect Talk, and you
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