1 00:00:03,799 --> 00:00:13,439 Welcome to Fantasy Hockey Life, presented by fan Tracks, your source of information 2 00:00:13,480 --> 00:00:17,120 and analysis to help you win your fantasy hockey league. Fuck off, that's 3 00:00:17,160 --> 00:00:23,800 a step on. Stay lost. Here's your hosts Jesse Sevier and Victor Nuno 4 00:00:24,239 --> 00:00:29,440 Fantasy Hockey Live backgrounds and Aaron to talk about the wonderful world of Fanny fantasy 5 00:00:29,440 --> 00:00:34,520 Hockey. I am Jesse Severe from fan Tracks, joining me across the glass 6 00:00:34,679 --> 00:00:40,119 Victor Nuno of Dauber Prospects. Victor, how you doing today? I'm good, 7 00:00:40,200 --> 00:00:44,039 Jesse, and you might have just accidentally created a new sport, Fannie 8 00:00:44,039 --> 00:00:47,920 Hockey. What is that? Fanny Hockey. That's right, and that's what 9 00:00:48,039 --> 00:00:52,000 life is all about, is Fanny hockey. That's how this is gonna roll. 10 00:00:52,119 --> 00:00:56,359 Yeah, Victor and I We've said this before, but we're almost to 11 00:00:56,399 --> 00:01:00,560 the loopy zone of our recordings for today. Next week it's going to be 12 00:01:00,880 --> 00:01:03,519 even tougher for us, I think, but we have been in this recording 13 00:01:03,560 --> 00:01:07,719 for several hours. That doesn't matter. We're pressing on because we love fantasy 14 00:01:07,719 --> 00:01:12,079 hockey, Victor and we love talking about it. And we're just wrapping up 15 00:01:12,079 --> 00:01:15,400 our some of our rookie drafts. By the time people hear this, we 16 00:01:15,480 --> 00:01:21,040 probably will be wrapped up on our rookie drafts. But it has been that 17 00:01:21,079 --> 00:01:23,120 season once again, Victor. How many drafts? How many leagues totally do 18 00:01:23,120 --> 00:01:30,040 you have this year? I have? I counted them up. I'm in 19 00:01:30,079 --> 00:01:36,359 about twenty three leagues. Twenty of them I commission and as we don't play 20 00:01:36,400 --> 00:01:38,959 in all those leagues though, because sometimes we're just running them for other people. 21 00:01:40,079 --> 00:01:42,400 But yeah, it's a lot. It's a lot of leagues, and 22 00:01:42,480 --> 00:01:46,680 for some reason, they all some of them happened already, but a lot 23 00:01:46,719 --> 00:01:49,519 of them ended up happening this same weekend that we're recording. So it's a 24 00:01:49,560 --> 00:01:53,400 lot to keep track of because all these different drafts are running at the same 25 00:01:53,439 --> 00:01:59,079 time and people have issues they draft the wrong player or whatever. But also 26 00:02:00,120 --> 00:02:02,000 there's just a lot to keep draft of. Like all of a sudden, 27 00:02:02,079 --> 00:02:06,920 you're trying to make sure everything is running smoothly, and then then your pick 28 00:02:07,120 --> 00:02:08,159 is up and you're like, oh, shoot, I actually have to think 29 00:02:08,199 --> 00:02:13,919 about who I want in this league, which always makes it a bit tough. 30 00:02:14,000 --> 00:02:15,719 But yeah, it's a little bit to keep straight, but it's a 31 00:02:15,759 --> 00:02:19,879 good time. I've had a couple of leagues where I've had some pretty decent 32 00:02:19,919 --> 00:02:23,759 players fall to me, which is always nice, but in general it's been 33 00:02:23,960 --> 00:02:27,400 it's been a lot of frustration about getting sniped and all that, which is 34 00:02:27,400 --> 00:02:30,319 part of the fun of draft. Absolutely, that's what I call fun. 35 00:02:30,400 --> 00:02:32,360 Victor, That's what I call fun. Yeah, if people want to have 36 00:02:32,439 --> 00:02:36,599 that kind of fun. It's not too late. There's why am I saying 37 00:02:36,639 --> 00:02:38,439 it's not too late, and it's only the middle of August. It's actually 38 00:02:38,439 --> 00:02:42,800 getting a little bit to crunch time to formula leagues, especially if it's slow. 39 00:02:42,879 --> 00:02:46,120 Draft one place if you're looking for like minded individuals to talk about your 40 00:02:46,120 --> 00:02:52,719 fantasy drafts and or maybe try to come together and find a group of people 41 00:02:52,800 --> 00:02:57,680 who are good at fantasy hockey who would like to draft with you, come 42 00:02:57,719 --> 00:03:00,599 to our Discord server. It is free to join and all you have to 43 00:03:00,639 --> 00:03:05,400 do to get in there is email us Fantasy Hockey Life at gmail dot com, 44 00:03:05,560 --> 00:03:09,319 hit myself up on x at fan Hockey Life, or Victor at Victor 45 00:03:09,400 --> 00:03:15,360 Newnio twelve and Victor. There are more things if you want to get into 46 00:03:15,039 --> 00:03:19,319 all the things that we have going on, including the Patreon. Tell people 47 00:03:19,360 --> 00:03:23,879 what they could have if they wanted to be a part of that. Yeah, 48 00:03:23,919 --> 00:03:25,879 great stuff over the Patreon. One of the biggest things the Tier dynasty 49 00:03:25,960 --> 00:03:30,319 that we're already full for, but you can jump on the waiting list and 50 00:03:30,680 --> 00:03:34,840 get filled in as it becomes available. You have to be a patron to 51 00:03:34,840 --> 00:03:38,199 do that. We also have show notes, we have patron casts, We 52 00:03:38,240 --> 00:03:43,039 have top ten lists for the prospects on there, and a bunch of others 53 00:03:43,039 --> 00:03:46,639 show. Whenever I guess on another show, I usually send the show notes 54 00:03:46,680 --> 00:03:51,520 out to for that prep as well, so you get other content as well. 55 00:03:51,639 --> 00:03:54,159 And there's the rank list I think is the biggest thing in the prospect 56 00:03:54,240 --> 00:03:59,479 ranks, so you can see forward, d goalie and twenty twenty three ranks 57 00:03:59,560 --> 00:04:02,680 all in there. We also have the average Draft Position project, which please 58 00:04:02,719 --> 00:04:05,879 share your drafts with us, and we're collating all that for all the patrons 59 00:04:05,879 --> 00:04:09,599 to see. And it's really fun, really good stuff going on there, 60 00:04:09,680 --> 00:04:13,080 so check that out if you want to support the show at patreon dot com 61 00:04:13,120 --> 00:04:17,199 slash Fantasy Hockey Life. That's enough of this. It's time to get to 62 00:04:17,240 --> 00:04:29,000 the show talking to Pittsburgh Penguins right after this. We'll please to be joined 63 00:04:29,040 --> 00:04:33,920 tonight by a man who does Pittsburgh Penguins content for that website, The Athletic. 64 00:04:34,360 --> 00:04:38,800 It is Jesse Marshall. Jesse, how you doing join? While gentlemen, 65 00:04:38,920 --> 00:04:43,800 appreciate you having me on again, Absolutely, we appreciate somebody who can 66 00:04:43,920 --> 00:04:48,560 come and help us work through the Pittsburgh Penguins because they really are one of 67 00:04:48,600 --> 00:04:53,480 the fascinating teams of the offseason. They've had a lot of there's been some 68 00:04:53,600 --> 00:04:57,639 change. This is a team that had the longest active playoffs break in North 69 00:04:57,680 --> 00:05:02,959 American sports sixteen years and ended this year by one standings point, so close, 70 00:05:03,639 --> 00:05:08,079 and something's really went right for the team. If you would have asked 71 00:05:08,079 --> 00:05:11,079 me said the Pens missed the playoffs, I would have said it was probably 72 00:05:11,120 --> 00:05:15,920 because their top two stars weren't healthy. But Crosby and Malcolm were healthy. 73 00:05:15,000 --> 00:05:19,680 That was definitely no gimme coming in the injuries and performance to clients popped up 74 00:05:19,720 --> 00:05:23,759 elsewhere in the roster, I would suggest, and we'll get your takes on 75 00:05:23,800 --> 00:05:28,000 this too. The team has really aggressively worked for so long to keep a 76 00:05:28,040 --> 00:05:32,319 competitive team on the ice around Sidney Crosby, which isn't a bad idea, 77 00:05:32,399 --> 00:05:36,439 But the bill is starting to come due for that lack of homegrown top talent. 78 00:05:38,120 --> 00:05:40,800 The Pens as a team last year at the fifth most shots, the 79 00:05:40,879 --> 00:05:45,839 seventh most shots against, slightly below average and say percentage, but otherwise mostly 80 00:05:45,920 --> 00:05:47,680 were in the middle of the road statistically, which was again where they ended 81 00:05:47,759 --> 00:05:51,720 up in the standings. The team has a new GM has made some He's 82 00:05:51,920 --> 00:05:56,759 already made some big moves this offseason that took out a couple of the tougher 83 00:05:56,800 --> 00:06:01,120 contracts that were probably not the greatest thing for the Penguins success going forward. 84 00:06:01,560 --> 00:06:04,680 So do you think the Penguins think they've done enough to get the team back 85 00:06:04,720 --> 00:06:08,639 in the playoffs with a puncher's chance at a deep run this year? Jesse, 86 00:06:10,519 --> 00:06:15,399 Yes, with the caveat of I don't know that the work's done. 87 00:06:16,000 --> 00:06:19,480 Like the rumor mill is the rumor mill, right, and you take everything 88 00:06:19,480 --> 00:06:24,959 with a grain of salt. But I do think overall that there's like credence 89 00:06:25,160 --> 00:06:29,439 to the reports we hear of there being like this floated interest in Thomas Tatar 90 00:06:30,160 --> 00:06:32,519 would be that would be a monumental ad if they can not monumental, but 91 00:06:32,519 --> 00:06:34,959 it'd be a big ad considering all the other stuff. When you stack it 92 00:06:35,000 --> 00:06:38,959 on top of all the other things they've done, it would just take them 93 00:06:39,000 --> 00:06:42,680 that much closer. So I think that the answer is I think Kyle Dubis 94 00:06:42,759 --> 00:06:46,519 thinks so. I think his answer would be yes. But again, I 95 00:06:46,680 --> 00:06:50,639 just don't get the sense that he has completed his work, and I still 96 00:06:50,680 --> 00:06:56,720 think that there are some problem contracts on the team. Jeff Carter is probably 97 00:06:56,759 --> 00:06:59,279 the one. I'm sure we'll talk about at some point in the show, 98 00:07:00,240 --> 00:07:04,439 potentially jettising that off the team and maybe bringing in a guy like a Thomas 99 00:07:04,480 --> 00:07:08,000 Tatar who's looking for more than one year, doesn't want to do a one 100 00:07:08,040 --> 00:07:12,199 year bridge deal and put all his chips in on that one year and what 101 00:07:12,240 --> 00:07:15,199 if a shooting percentage were to go in the toilet. Now he's compromised at 102 00:07:15,199 --> 00:07:21,120 getting another deal after that. So convoluted answer, but yes and no in 103 00:07:21,160 --> 00:07:24,839 the sense that they still want they're not. I don't know that we have 104 00:07:24,959 --> 00:07:28,560 a complete body of work to judge yet, but I think that the work 105 00:07:28,600 --> 00:07:31,279 that they've done so far you mentioned at one standing point, right, you 106 00:07:31,360 --> 00:07:36,360 gotta feel at least pretty confident that they've added that in the work that they've 107 00:07:36,399 --> 00:07:42,680 done this offseason. Yeah, definitely, we'll be curious to see if they 108 00:07:42,720 --> 00:07:46,160 make any other moves. Let's get into the main forwards that we're going to 109 00:07:46,199 --> 00:07:48,399 talk about, and of course when I start with their star, Sidney Crosby 110 00:07:49,279 --> 00:07:55,040 is still kicking. He's still doing great. We thought he'd be around the 111 00:07:55,079 --> 00:07:58,680 eighteen to twenty eighth best forward in fantasy. He was righting there in nineteen 112 00:07:59,240 --> 00:08:03,000 and we'll talk about will be projection for the future. It may have been 113 00:08:03,000 --> 00:08:05,680 a down year for the Penguins, but not for Crosby. As a thirty 114 00:08:05,680 --> 00:08:09,240 six year old. He kept up his elite production. Ninety three point pace 115 00:08:09,519 --> 00:08:11,759 is about what he's done the past five seasons or so, give or take, 116 00:08:13,160 --> 00:08:15,879 and that's what he did this year. Thirty three goals, sixty assists 117 00:08:15,920 --> 00:08:20,639 for those ninety three points and twenty seven power play points is great. He's 118 00:08:20,680 --> 00:08:22,639 got two years left at that eight point seven million, and you look at 119 00:08:22,680 --> 00:08:28,040 some of the underlyings and it hasn't really regressed much. He's still really good 120 00:08:28,079 --> 00:08:31,120 defensively, still generating a lot of offense. It's not like he's getting lucky 121 00:08:31,199 --> 00:08:33,720 or anything like that. And I know last year when you were on, 122 00:08:33,759 --> 00:08:37,679 I asked you how long he could keep this up and it seems like his 123 00:08:37,799 --> 00:08:41,720 game is poised to age continue to age well as he gets older. So 124 00:08:41,799 --> 00:08:43,600 do you see any kind of fall off coming from Crosby or is he just 125 00:08:43,600 --> 00:08:48,759 going to be in this range eighty five to one hundred point player again this 126 00:08:48,799 --> 00:08:52,200 season and maybe for another one or two after that. I mean, it 127 00:08:52,240 --> 00:08:56,679 could be twenty thirty five twenty forty Victor, and I'd probably give you the 128 00:08:56,720 --> 00:08:58,480 answer yes to that question. I don't think that there'd ever be a time 129 00:08:58,559 --> 00:09:03,679 right but against him. I'll tell you this, guys, I watched I 130 00:09:03,799 --> 00:09:05,960 turned forty this year, and I so. The reason I tell you that 131 00:09:07,039 --> 00:09:11,399 is I'm old enough to have watched the entirety of Sidney Crosby's professional hockey career, 132 00:09:11,399 --> 00:09:16,000 every game of it. But I also caught most of Mario's two, 133 00:09:16,759 --> 00:09:22,279 especially the back end right. And I don't think there's ever really appropriate levels 134 00:09:22,320 --> 00:09:26,639 of comparison between Crosby and Lemieux. When Crosby is so young, everybody wanted 135 00:09:26,679 --> 00:09:30,759 to shove that comparison down your throat in Pittsburgh and try to force it to 136 00:09:30,840 --> 00:09:33,759 fit, and I don't think it does. They're two totally different players. 137 00:09:33,879 --> 00:09:41,240 What they share and what makes Sidney Crosby immune to this sort of standard age 138 00:09:41,240 --> 00:09:46,679 based degradation is his the under the combination of vision and hockey sense that they 139 00:09:46,679 --> 00:09:52,960 had. As they got older, that evolved and changed, and they no 140 00:09:52,039 --> 00:09:56,720 longer became players that would go down baryling down the ice ninety nine miles an 141 00:09:56,759 --> 00:10:00,480 hour, bowling people over or shoving them off. For dea and through four 142 00:10:00,559 --> 00:10:03,480 or five guys. They were using the eyes in the back of their head, 143 00:10:03,600 --> 00:10:07,759 changing the tempo, slowing the game down, drawing defenders in and exploiting 144 00:10:07,799 --> 00:10:11,240 the open space. All those little tricks that you don't need to be operating 145 00:10:11,240 --> 00:10:15,320 in one hundred miles an hour to do successfully. And if you look at 146 00:10:15,360 --> 00:10:18,759 last year, Sidney Crosby ninety nine percentile and high danger passes and general in 147 00:10:18,919 --> 00:10:24,480 zone shot assists. That's why. Because he can manipulate the pace of the 148 00:10:24,519 --> 00:10:28,639 game, it can draw people in, magnetize people into him, and then 149 00:10:28,799 --> 00:10:31,399 distribute the puck to a Jake Gensil or Ricard Raquel or maybe even an Eric 150 00:10:31,399 --> 00:10:35,960 Carlson this year and boom. That's so as time has worn on, his 151 00:10:37,960 --> 00:10:43,799 playmaking ability has become the foundation of his game more than it was in prior 152 00:10:45,039 --> 00:10:48,120 times of his career. His goal scoring, although very strong last year, 153 00:10:48,320 --> 00:10:54,480 Like I don't think his backhand is still a magical lethality every time. He's 154 00:10:54,759 --> 00:10:58,559 nice, but it's he's not Deacon through five six guys anymore. That's just 155 00:10:58,600 --> 00:11:03,679 the way it is. He doesn't have that pension for his game anymore. 156 00:11:03,720 --> 00:11:09,080 But again, the hockey sense, the vision, the tempo control, the 157 00:11:09,120 --> 00:11:13,799 ability to find people without telling the defense and the opposing goaltender what he's about 158 00:11:13,840 --> 00:11:18,320 to do. I'm sorry. I'll put that up against Connor McDavid in the 159 00:11:18,360 --> 00:11:22,000 elite players the league any day of the week. And while if some of 160 00:11:22,000 --> 00:11:26,120 those physical elements may not exist, I don't think there's a smarter player in 161 00:11:26,120 --> 00:11:28,519 the league right now, especially since Patrice Bergeron retired. But I yeah, 162 00:11:28,559 --> 00:11:33,080 I so to answer your long answer, Victor, but I don't think it's 163 00:11:33,200 --> 00:11:37,039 I'm not betting against him. Yeah, I've seen too much at this point 164 00:11:37,120 --> 00:11:41,639 in my life to know. And the fact that he has this full off 165 00:11:41,679 --> 00:11:46,720 season right where I think he's used to carrying like nagging things into the postseason 166 00:11:46,840 --> 00:11:54,759 and having a short recovery period. He's coming back hungry, rested, healthy, 167 00:11:54,399 --> 00:11:58,960 dangerous combination of things for Sidney Grosby, so I think it'll be more 168 00:11:58,960 --> 00:12:01,080 of the same this year. Frank, I put him in the exact I 169 00:12:01,080 --> 00:12:05,279 wouldn't be surprised if he gave you the same point. Total health depending obviously 170 00:12:05,320 --> 00:12:07,919 it's a big part of this, but I wouldn't be surprised if in the 171 00:12:07,960 --> 00:12:16,120 exact same window you just mentioned. Tremendous of Guiney Malkin. I just mentioned 172 00:12:16,200 --> 00:12:18,480 about the health. If Guinny Malkin played a full eighty two games for the 173 00:12:18,519 --> 00:12:22,120 first time since two thousand and eight, two thousand and nine, some of 174 00:12:22,159 --> 00:12:26,320 those years were just missing a little bit. A lot of those years were 175 00:12:26,320 --> 00:12:31,080 missing a lot. His point per game pace was like clockwork, with three 176 00:12:31,159 --> 00:12:33,679 shots per game, over half a hit, under half a block. Right 177 00:12:33,720 --> 00:12:39,120 around there, thirty six power play points were the fourth highest in if Guinny 178 00:12:39,159 --> 00:12:43,000 malkin sixteen year career. He's not cup your Malkin. He's not at that 179 00:12:43,080 --> 00:12:48,279 point, but he definitely is on an upward trajectory from when he bottomed out 180 00:12:48,320 --> 00:12:50,919 a little bit in the COVID year, but back on this late renaissance. 181 00:12:52,080 --> 00:12:56,000 If he can keep this performance going, it seems very fair that he's going 182 00:12:56,039 --> 00:13:00,000 to be paid six point one million dollars for the next three campaigns. From 183 00:13:00,080 --> 00:13:03,480 Pittsburgh's standpoint, do you think Malkin is going to be able to keep this 184 00:13:03,639 --> 00:13:09,679 performance up healthy for a couple more years? Jesse, That's the big question, 185 00:13:09,759 --> 00:13:11,080 right. It's the health piece, and a lot of the injuries that 186 00:13:11,120 --> 00:13:15,480 he's been dealt over the course of the last couple of years have been lower 187 00:13:15,559 --> 00:13:20,679 body like soft tissue injuries that you always wonder about, right, knock on 188 00:13:20,720 --> 00:13:24,519 wood, you don't. Those are always a little tenuous. I think if 189 00:13:24,559 --> 00:13:28,000 he stays healthy, yes, for sure. His shot rates were down last 190 00:13:28,039 --> 00:13:31,480 year at a pretty stark rate. I think that's probably an anomaly. I 191 00:13:31,519 --> 00:13:35,159 don't expect that to continue into this season. I think I'll get himself back 192 00:13:35,240 --> 00:13:41,159 up there again. Potential for an appearance with a new linemate this year in 193 00:13:41,279 --> 00:13:45,360 Riley Smith, who I think does a lot of transitional dirty work. That'll 194 00:13:45,399 --> 00:13:48,960 take a load off of Mulkin and give him the opportunity to get back to 195 00:13:48,000 --> 00:13:52,440 shooting and using his really advanced offensive skill set. I think a lot of 196 00:13:52,440 --> 00:13:56,000 it will depend, excuse you, guys on Brian Rust who didn't have his 197 00:13:56,039 --> 00:13:58,879 best season last year. That'll think a player that I expect to see a 198 00:14:00,200 --> 00:14:03,639 with Malkin. Some of I think Malkin's numbers are down because Russ's finishing ability 199 00:14:03,720 --> 00:14:09,240 was not his anywhere near his best last season. I think looking at the 200 00:14:09,279 --> 00:14:13,000 sheer, Malkin could easily hit eight hundred assists. I think the dynamic of 201 00:14:13,039 --> 00:14:16,879 the Penguins defense has changed in a way that Malkin and Letang are going to 202 00:14:16,919 --> 00:14:20,080 spend way more time together potentially this year, and if it doesn't play out 203 00:14:20,120 --> 00:14:24,360 like that, he's gonna get Eric Carlson really nice consolation prize. And again, 204 00:14:24,440 --> 00:14:28,639 so the reason I mentioned this to you guys overall, Victor and just 205 00:14:28,879 --> 00:14:35,639 I think Malkin's strength is in a lower burden of transitional puck carrying hockey. 206 00:14:35,960 --> 00:14:39,600 If he can be the guy that gets the first pass right across the offensive 207 00:14:39,600 --> 00:14:41,919 blue line, you put the puck in his hand in that transitional period, 208 00:14:43,320 --> 00:14:46,960 as opposed to him taking it from deep behind his own the defensive zone and 209 00:14:46,799 --> 00:14:52,559 trying to beat two thousand and nine Malkin and beat two or three guys like 210 00:14:52,799 --> 00:14:56,960 that environment for him a lot better. I think that he's going to find 211 00:14:56,080 --> 00:15:01,320 himself in a spot, whether it be from the Riley Smith perspective, or 212 00:15:01,480 --> 00:15:03,759 again let Tang or Carlson, where the burden is just lessened on him and 213 00:15:03,799 --> 00:15:07,000 he could be more of that trigger man. That's what I look forward to. 214 00:15:07,399 --> 00:15:09,919 I think that's where he's at his best, and if he can get 215 00:15:09,919 --> 00:15:15,080 those shot rates back up while maintaining the level of playmaking he had last year, 216 00:15:15,320 --> 00:15:18,120 I think you could see. Even it's crazy to say thirty seven thirty 217 00:15:18,159 --> 00:15:22,360 eight year old player gets an uptick after a point per game season, but 218 00:15:22,440 --> 00:15:26,840 I don't think that's unreasonable to say given the environment he's going to find himself 219 00:15:26,840 --> 00:15:28,279 in, which is, by the way, is heavy offensive zone deployments, 220 00:15:31,000 --> 00:15:33,960 tons of time with really good puck moving defenseman. Hey, that's I think 221 00:15:35,120 --> 00:15:39,919 for me anyway, that's a recipe for success for Guinny Walkin. Sounds like 222 00:15:39,919 --> 00:15:43,600 a really good recipe to me. Yeah. Let's talk about the next forward 223 00:15:43,639 --> 00:15:46,200 here, Jake Genzl and he was right in line where Jesse and I had 224 00:15:46,279 --> 00:15:50,039 him coming in the season. We thought he'd be around between twenty and twenty 225 00:15:50,039 --> 00:15:52,360 fifth best forward. He was number twenty five, and we thought of him 226 00:15:52,360 --> 00:15:56,320 as a top tier forward this year. I don't know based on his season, 227 00:15:56,000 --> 00:15:58,960 he had a bit of a down year. He was under a point 228 00:16:00,039 --> 00:16:03,399 per game for the first time after being over point per game for the previous 229 00:16:03,399 --> 00:16:07,480 three seasons, or at least point per game pace, and regress to his 230 00:16:07,480 --> 00:16:11,240 twenty eighteen nineteen point pace this past season, where he was in that mid 231 00:16:11,320 --> 00:16:15,720 to highs seventy range. So this season thirty six goals, thirty seven assists 232 00:16:15,720 --> 00:16:18,159 for seventy seven point pace, lots of shots, lots of power play points, 233 00:16:18,200 --> 00:16:22,840 decent blocks two actually pretty good for block shots hits at his position. 234 00:16:22,440 --> 00:16:26,320 Contract year one year left at six million. That might play in here. 235 00:16:26,840 --> 00:16:30,440 One thing that was interesting about Gunzil this year. He was much worse defensively, 236 00:16:30,519 --> 00:16:34,240 at least by evolving Hockey's metrics expected goals against, and of course he 237 00:16:34,320 --> 00:16:38,759 gains for sixties, so that was interesting. Do you think Jesse the Gunsil's 238 00:16:38,840 --> 00:16:42,840 ninety point seasons are more of an outlier? Was this past season the bigger 239 00:16:42,879 --> 00:16:47,519 outlier and we can expect him to move back up this upcoming season. I 240 00:16:47,519 --> 00:16:51,039 would say that I think you'd expect him to move back up this upcoming season, 241 00:16:51,080 --> 00:16:53,159 but he's going to miss some time. I think the Penguin has quite 242 00:16:53,159 --> 00:16:56,600 honestly been a little bit generous with their advice on when they think he's going 243 00:16:56,679 --> 00:17:00,600 to be back to the lineup. The original we'll say worst case scenario, 244 00:17:00,759 --> 00:17:04,559 Victor will take it to the extreme. Here is twelve weeks, right, 245 00:17:04,680 --> 00:17:08,920 that would put you him getting back in practice and skating with the team again 246 00:17:08,920 --> 00:17:14,880 and reacclimating himself to contact at the end of October. How many weeks does 247 00:17:14,880 --> 00:17:17,200 it take to get yourself ready again? I don't know. It's a week. 248 00:17:17,599 --> 00:17:19,799 You're in a November now, that's if everything goes well. So he's 249 00:17:19,839 --> 00:17:25,319 gonna miss time. The question is how equipped is he to deal with the 250 00:17:25,400 --> 00:17:26,839 rigors of the schedule when he gets back in the lineup coming off of a 251 00:17:26,839 --> 00:17:32,440 lower body ankle injury that required surgery. We don't know what version of Jake 252 00:17:32,480 --> 00:17:36,640 Genzl we're going to get now that being said, Super high hockey IQ, 253 00:17:37,119 --> 00:17:40,440 the son of a really good coach, Mike Genzl, is an amazing coach 254 00:17:40,519 --> 00:17:42,480 himself, and you get that sense when you watch him play, and he's 255 00:17:42,519 --> 00:17:47,720 probably the most adept line meat that has ever been built for Sidney Crosby just 256 00:17:47,759 --> 00:17:52,480 because of his again, IQ and ability to digest the nuance of the game 257 00:17:52,480 --> 00:17:56,880 that Crosby is like dumping on you like a waterfall constantly. It takes a 258 00:17:56,960 --> 00:17:59,440 special kind of player to be able to deal with that. When you take 259 00:17:59,480 --> 00:18:03,200 that into seration with how much better the Penguins power play is, we're talking 260 00:18:03,240 --> 00:18:07,440 about over two and a half expected goals generated with Denzel on the ice for 261 00:18:07,480 --> 00:18:12,119 the power play as opposed to not. He needs a really critical piece to 262 00:18:12,200 --> 00:18:17,480 this offensive machine. Finishing down a little bit late last year, Like you, 263 00:18:17,640 --> 00:18:19,440 I think that's really what bid him, is that the puck, especially 264 00:18:19,480 --> 00:18:22,000 at the beginning of the year, was not going in. It took him 265 00:18:22,000 --> 00:18:26,319 a while to catch up on the goal scoring side again pace wise, victor 266 00:18:26,759 --> 00:18:33,039 pace wise. I would question whether he'll get there this year because of the 267 00:18:33,160 --> 00:18:37,839 nature of his injury, and we don't know anytime it's ankle or knee or 268 00:18:37,880 --> 00:18:41,559 anything like that. You just wonder about the impact it will have to a 269 00:18:41,599 --> 00:18:45,200 player's mobility. Mobility is a big part of what Jake Denzil does. If 270 00:18:45,200 --> 00:18:48,519 you look, if he comes back healthy, no issue. I would say, 271 00:18:48,759 --> 00:18:52,920 great fantasy option if you're okay with taking the hit on games missed at 272 00:18:52,960 --> 00:18:56,559 the front end, because he's probably gonna miss if at best a handful. 273 00:18:59,160 --> 00:19:00,920 There's no way less than five games. In my opinion, I think he's 274 00:19:00,960 --> 00:19:04,519 right around best case scenario five games. Worst case scenario, you're in a 275 00:19:04,559 --> 00:19:10,920 November. But if it comes back well equipped, I think he's a guy 276 00:19:10,920 --> 00:19:12,440 that could score at a ninety point pace. He's going to be again in 277 00:19:12,480 --> 00:19:18,440 an environment with Sidney Crosby, Recard Rickell and it maybe Eric Carlson gonna really 278 00:19:18,480 --> 00:19:22,720 be a fruitful thing for him. Do you just question where he is health 279 00:19:22,799 --> 00:19:26,920 wise and what impact this injury potentially has to his health. The other thing 280 00:19:26,960 --> 00:19:33,359 I'll say, though I'm contradicting myself now Victor, is that there's a potential 281 00:19:33,720 --> 00:19:37,799 and I don't know this, but some people speculate was last year's down year 282 00:19:37,880 --> 00:19:41,920 because he had a nagging ankle injury. Did he pick up this ankle injury 283 00:19:41,920 --> 00:19:45,000 in the Beauty League and it's just like a new thing, or did he 284 00:19:45,079 --> 00:19:48,079 carry it into the offseason it got better the Beauty League reactivated it. I 285 00:19:48,119 --> 00:19:53,240 think there was a sense verbage wise in there from the Penguins that hinted that 286 00:19:53,279 --> 00:19:56,599 maybe it was something that had bothered him before. We don't know that, 287 00:19:56,759 --> 00:20:00,960 so maybe we're fixing a problem here I don't know, but at the end 288 00:20:00,000 --> 00:20:03,240 of the day, you're still cutting a month of production potentially out of his 289 00:20:03,480 --> 00:20:11,319 total points. Rickard Raquel I underestimated this guy coming into the year, and 290 00:20:11,640 --> 00:20:17,359 that veteran seemed to thrive in his first full year in Western Pennsylvania played a 291 00:20:17,400 --> 00:20:22,759 full eighty two second highest career scoring line twenty eight goals thirty two assists. 292 00:20:22,119 --> 00:20:26,680 He also notched three shots and close to two hits a game Gold for US 293 00:20:26,720 --> 00:20:30,240 fantasy types. Got a career high and average power play tom on ice at 294 00:20:30,240 --> 00:20:37,240 three eighteen. In Pittsburgh's powerplay it wasn't quite what it once was, but 295 00:20:37,279 --> 00:20:40,880 it's an awfully nice place to be to score some points, and those career 296 00:20:40,920 --> 00:20:45,359 high twenty one power play points were a reason for Raquel's scoring jump overall. 297 00:20:45,720 --> 00:20:48,279 He moved back and forth during the season between the Crosby Genssel line and the 298 00:20:48,279 --> 00:20:55,640 Malcot Zucker line, and his five by five remaining contract is tied for the 299 00:20:55,680 --> 00:20:59,920 longest future term of a Pittsburgh forward. What clicked for this guy coming in 300 00:21:00,200 --> 00:21:03,880 and do you expect it to continue? Jesse, I do expect it to 301 00:21:03,920 --> 00:21:07,079 continue. I think what clicked for him is he played a bit of a 302 00:21:07,160 --> 00:21:11,440 light diet version, if you will, of some of the great things that 303 00:21:11,839 --> 00:21:15,640 Chris Coonits did on that line traditionally with Sidney Crosby for a number of years, 304 00:21:15,680 --> 00:21:19,759 which really is puck or treeble, winning those battles on the boards, 305 00:21:19,799 --> 00:21:22,680 going to the front of the net and putting a stick on the ice in 306 00:21:22,720 --> 00:21:26,640 some cases letting Sidney Crosby bank the pucking off of him. Not. I 307 00:21:26,640 --> 00:21:29,440 don't want to be diminutive of Ricard Riquel, because he's turned out to be 308 00:21:29,480 --> 00:21:32,400 a heck of a finisher. I think we've seen that throughout his career. 309 00:21:32,759 --> 00:21:34,359 There's been moments in time where he'll put one in the net and you'll see 310 00:21:34,359 --> 00:21:37,759 it on NHL tonight and you'll be like, what, who was that? 311 00:21:37,039 --> 00:21:40,519 Brings you to the edge of your seat. Now that was back a little 312 00:21:40,519 --> 00:21:41,599 bit last year. Twenty eight goals is a lot of goals, right. 313 00:21:41,839 --> 00:21:47,359 That's a testament to his ability to get to scoring areas and make himself available. 314 00:21:47,559 --> 00:21:51,440 So it's very simplistic, right, There's no magic sauce here. It's 315 00:21:51,480 --> 00:21:55,200 all the traditional things that you would expect out of a player, getting to 316 00:21:55,240 --> 00:21:59,559 the traditional areas, getting to the tough areas, winning those battles and getting 317 00:22:00,079 --> 00:22:03,359 available and peeling off of a defender has done wonders for him. The nice 318 00:22:03,400 --> 00:22:08,160 thing is, in Ricard Raquel's case, Mike Sullivan doesn't usually like to switch 319 00:22:08,200 --> 00:22:12,079 things up in the top six, but if he does, he goes from 320 00:22:12,079 --> 00:22:17,359 playing with Sidney Crosby to playing with a guinea Malkin. If you're from drafting 321 00:22:17,359 --> 00:22:21,519 a winger perspective and fantasy, you want to consider the centers they're playing with. 322 00:22:22,000 --> 00:22:25,319 There's no bad option for Raquel here right Like you're not going to see 323 00:22:25,400 --> 00:22:27,799 him on the third line in Pittsburgh. He's I will say, this guy's 324 00:22:27,839 --> 00:22:32,880 with the addition of Raquel of excuse me, Errett Carlson, it is fair 325 00:22:32,880 --> 00:22:36,799 to wonder what the powerplay situation looks like for him. And do the Penguins 326 00:22:36,839 --> 00:22:41,559 go to two D Do they put Latang and Carlson on the top unit together 327 00:22:41,960 --> 00:22:44,319 and just go with three forwards? Because if they're going with three forwards, 328 00:22:44,519 --> 00:22:48,039 Ricard Rackel is probably not going to be one right when healthy. You're probably 329 00:22:48,039 --> 00:22:52,519 looking at like against Will Crosby Malkin situation. So does that chunk a bit 330 00:22:52,559 --> 00:22:56,720 of points away from him? Possibly We'll see what that looks like but a 331 00:22:56,759 --> 00:23:00,880 situation worth monitoring, but still very great value. I think for a guy 332 00:23:00,880 --> 00:23:03,640 who's not usually a household name, you get in maybe twenty five goals from 333 00:23:03,680 --> 00:23:07,920 him next year. That's still a really good number. And by the way, 334 00:23:08,079 --> 00:23:14,480 Ricard Raquel in the Evolving Hockey model of goals above replacement, was the 335 00:23:14,480 --> 00:23:19,000 third most valuable skeeter on the Pittsburgh Penguins last year, behind Sidney Crosby and 336 00:23:21,039 --> 00:23:26,599 Josh Archibald go home Evolving Hockey's model. I think you're drunk, sa sample 337 00:23:26,680 --> 00:23:29,920 size. There you go, Riley Smith, Riley Smith. You mentioned him, 338 00:23:30,079 --> 00:23:33,920 Jesse, and certainly Pittsburgh fans are going to get a first look at 339 00:23:33,000 --> 00:23:37,000 him. But we all watched him a lot this spring in summer in Vegas's 340 00:23:37,039 --> 00:23:42,400 Stanley Cup run. Vegas's cap nightmare led them to move this original misfit for 341 00:23:42,400 --> 00:23:47,319 a third round pick. This is not a guy who we expected to come 342 00:23:47,319 --> 00:23:49,079 in or will expect to come in as a superstar, but it seems pretty 343 00:23:49,119 --> 00:23:52,799 likely to win that left wing lottery. Like you said, maybe with Egenny 344 00:23:52,880 --> 00:23:57,000 Malkin is what I think I heard you suggest. But a steady average guy 345 00:23:57,039 --> 00:24:02,000 since the Knights inception and is a pretty reasonable contract for the next couple of 346 00:24:02,039 --> 00:24:04,319 years. Nice bit of business. But in terms of his performance on the 347 00:24:04,359 --> 00:24:08,079 ice, do you think that he will look about the same way he did 348 00:24:08,119 --> 00:24:12,279 in Vegas or do you think that he's gonna extract gold playing with no pun 349 00:24:12,279 --> 00:24:17,519 intend at Golden Knights with the Penguins that he's going to get here. That's 350 00:24:17,559 --> 00:24:21,160 a great question, Jesse. I don't know we're going to see him in 351 00:24:22,400 --> 00:24:26,599 a traditional goal scoring type of a role on that line. And again I 352 00:24:26,640 --> 00:24:30,400 mentioned this earlier. His strength I think was defensive play, which Malkin needs. 353 00:24:30,400 --> 00:24:34,720 A ton of transition which Malkin needs help with, and somebody who could 354 00:24:34,799 --> 00:24:38,680 just do that raquel job I told you about on the top line. They 355 00:24:38,720 --> 00:24:41,440 need that on the second line. And that's what Riley Smith does. He's 356 00:24:41,480 --> 00:24:45,759 that conduit for me that brings that whole thing the other He's going to create 357 00:24:45,799 --> 00:24:49,480 space, get to the dirty areas and make himself available. That I think 358 00:24:51,119 --> 00:24:56,799 takes burden off of both Malkin and Rust in differing ways. That allows them 359 00:24:56,839 --> 00:25:02,319 to focus on the things that they're good at. That also doesn't I'm gonna 360 00:25:02,319 --> 00:25:06,160 contradict myself here in a second Jesse. But you traditionally wouldn't think that a 361 00:25:06,279 --> 00:25:08,920 role like that would also beget you a ton of points, right, and 362 00:25:10,039 --> 00:25:14,440 maybe not be the focal point of that line offensively. But Richard Keel was 363 00:25:14,480 --> 00:25:17,920 doing that job and he just scored twenty eight goals. So maybe I don't 364 00:25:17,920 --> 00:25:21,759 know what I'm talking about. I'll say this. I think he's this line 365 00:25:21,839 --> 00:25:23,480 is going to be used again in a very I mentioned this earlier, in 366 00:25:23,559 --> 00:25:27,759 a very offensive way. Mike Sullivan is going to deploy them in the offensive 367 00:25:27,880 --> 00:25:32,519 zone in situations where they need a goal. They're going to feed the minutes 368 00:25:32,559 --> 00:25:34,839 that are really offensive in nature. So if you think last year fifty six 369 00:25:34,880 --> 00:25:38,640 points in what seventy eight games, I think he's definitely gonna be an environment 370 00:25:38,640 --> 00:25:45,200 to potentially crack that. I just don't think that from a goal scoring perspective, 371 00:25:45,200 --> 00:25:49,599 I'm expecting a lot assists. You know, maybe we will see a 372 00:25:49,599 --> 00:25:52,279 career high there, given how good he is in transition in his role in 373 00:25:52,319 --> 00:25:56,599 this line, But I expect him to have a great impact on the line's 374 00:25:56,640 --> 00:26:00,039 defensive work and to get a ton of minutes on the penalty kill. So 375 00:26:00,079 --> 00:26:03,359 if you're in a league that awards points for defensive stats and blocks and things 376 00:26:03,359 --> 00:26:07,039 of that nature. Something to keep an eye on, because I think he 377 00:26:07,119 --> 00:26:11,559 will be I would venture to say, gentlemen, probably the forward that gets 378 00:26:11,599 --> 00:26:15,039 the most minutes on the penalty kill for the Penguins this year. I think 379 00:26:15,039 --> 00:26:18,000 that's why they went out and got him, especially because this is a real 380 00:26:18,119 --> 00:26:22,680 big pain point for them. Last year they just work a little bit of 381 00:26:22,720 --> 00:26:25,480 a mess on the penalty kill. They didn't have a lot of aggressive nature 382 00:26:25,519 --> 00:26:27,160 to them, not anyone that was really going on there and trying to push 383 00:26:27,200 --> 00:26:30,440 the pace. That's what Smith does. It is very active out there, 384 00:26:30,440 --> 00:26:33,519 and I think that that's something to keep an eye on. Is he's going 385 00:26:33,599 --> 00:26:37,640 to get a lot of minutes and probably some second team power play time as 386 00:26:37,640 --> 00:26:45,720 well, potentially well. Brian rust I mentioned how Raquel spent about half the 387 00:26:45,720 --> 00:26:48,799 time with crossbe half the time with Malkin. Rust was on the other end 388 00:26:48,839 --> 00:26:52,079 of that, seesaw in terms of switching back and forth between the lines. 389 00:26:52,119 --> 00:26:56,599 According to the data we have, I've always liked rust production on this team. 390 00:26:56,680 --> 00:26:59,720 He continued to point the post two and a half shots with more than 391 00:26:59,720 --> 00:27:03,160 a hit per game, those are nice stats. Scoring was rough though this 392 00:27:03,240 --> 00:27:07,359 past year nine point five percent shooting, way below his career twelve point three 393 00:27:07,400 --> 00:27:11,880 percent shooting, and he ended up with twenty goals and twenty six assists in 394 00:27:11,440 --> 00:27:17,039 those games that he did play. Was it that bounces for Rust last year? 395 00:27:17,359 --> 00:27:21,880 Could he rebound a payoff for the five years left on the contract he 396 00:27:21,920 --> 00:27:25,119 has? And while you're talking about that, the other thing I'm curious about 397 00:27:25,200 --> 00:27:29,599 is you've talked about who's going to be on which line and what's the intel 398 00:27:29,640 --> 00:27:33,160 based on there? Is this something you're reading the tea leaves and you're understanding 399 00:27:33,200 --> 00:27:36,920 to the team. Has there been some quotes from coaches and stuff like that 400 00:27:36,960 --> 00:27:41,000 have come out that have really let us know how telegraph what's going to happen 401 00:27:41,039 --> 00:27:45,279 here? But anyway, Brian Rust, Yeah, so a couple of things, 402 00:27:45,400 --> 00:27:49,480 right, I think taking your questions in reverse order, I think what 403 00:27:49,519 --> 00:27:55,279 we came to learn last year is that both Mike Sullivan and Sidney Crosbike Ricard 404 00:27:55,359 --> 00:27:59,559 Raquel on that top line. That seemed to be something that made everyone really 405 00:27:59,640 --> 00:28:03,079 happy. So I'm expecting that to be the traditionally from a time on ice 406 00:28:03,119 --> 00:28:07,920 perspective and an deployment perspective, it's rust and Malkin then have that sort of 407 00:28:07,960 --> 00:28:12,480 like traditional historical chemistry. Now you mentioned the shooting percentage, Jesse, that's 408 00:28:12,559 --> 00:28:18,559 right, I'm gonna throw another one at you. Two rush attempts and rush 409 00:28:18,680 --> 00:28:22,839 offense put him in the forty sixth percentile of NHL forwards on that bucket last 410 00:28:22,880 --> 00:28:26,119 year, and if you look at all of Russ's historically strong seasons, that 411 00:28:26,200 --> 00:28:32,440 number's way higher. So his ability to be successful offensively seems to be tied 412 00:28:32,920 --> 00:28:37,559 to how much rush offense he generates career year that he had not that long 413 00:28:37,599 --> 00:28:41,480 ago in the past, from the points perspective, was in the ninety sixth 414 00:28:41,519 --> 00:28:45,880 percentile and transition offense that year. Not a mystery, right like this, 415 00:28:45,119 --> 00:28:48,880 I think these two things very much go hand in hand with each other. 416 00:28:48,240 --> 00:28:52,880 When he's not feeling confident, he's a deferring type of a player, right, 417 00:28:52,240 --> 00:28:55,880 He's not getting into positions to finish, He's sending that puck over to 418 00:28:55,920 --> 00:28:59,519 Malkin, good, bad or worse, and becomes a little bit of a 419 00:28:59,559 --> 00:29:03,839 pass. The problem with him traditionally has been consistency and the ability to put 420 00:29:03,839 --> 00:29:07,799 it together for really long stretches of time. Again, going to have. 421 00:29:08,000 --> 00:29:11,400 I think, regardless of where you find him, probably going to get another 422 00:29:11,400 --> 00:29:15,559 crack inside the top six to start the year, probably on the Malkin line. 423 00:29:15,359 --> 00:29:18,519 One of that line is going to get one of carl Center letang. 424 00:29:18,640 --> 00:29:22,640 You would think, on how the split works, I'm going to be a 425 00:29:22,720 --> 00:29:26,799 much different environment for him, potentially for the better. It comes down to 426 00:29:26,920 --> 00:29:33,599 does that finish come back We don't know, and what does his transition offense 427 00:29:33,640 --> 00:29:36,599 look like? And I feel like you can set your watch to it just 428 00:29:36,680 --> 00:29:41,359 in terms of when his approach changes and dials back in that area. I 429 00:29:41,400 --> 00:29:45,279 think it in hampers him. Think it hampers his ability to get into finishing 430 00:29:45,319 --> 00:29:48,559 areas and be effective. Another thing I'll call out with Rust guys is that 431 00:29:48,599 --> 00:29:52,279 power play piece right odd to real estate that's getting eaten up by Eric Carlson. 432 00:29:52,680 --> 00:29:55,200 You assume we don't know what that looks like yet, We don't know 433 00:29:55,200 --> 00:29:59,720 how they're gonna aline it or what the plan is there. But Brian Rust 434 00:29:59,759 --> 00:30:03,480 is traditionally a guy that on that top unit when they're running four forwards here 435 00:30:03,519 --> 00:30:11,960 and there that I wonder if that might change now you mentioned like Jeff Carter. 436 00:30:11,559 --> 00:30:15,799 Of course there's several other forwards on this team, but just in terms 437 00:30:15,920 --> 00:30:19,400 of from a fantasy perspective, getting into these top lines, is there anybody 438 00:30:19,400 --> 00:30:22,559 else you think is regularly going to crack the top producing lines on this team? 439 00:30:22,640 --> 00:30:26,039 Jesse? Just generally speaking, I'll throw a name at you to keep 440 00:30:26,039 --> 00:30:33,119 an eye on that had I think some utility around them last year was Nola 441 00:30:33,240 --> 00:30:37,559 Chari, who's now in here and reacquired by Kyle Dubis on a new three 442 00:30:37,640 --> 00:30:41,079 year contract. It's given him a decent chunk of cash year. It all 443 00:30:41,559 --> 00:30:45,000 really does all the things well that you'd come to expect from a bottom six 444 00:30:45,079 --> 00:30:48,240 forward, plays with energy, hits a lot blocks, a lot of shots, 445 00:30:48,640 --> 00:30:52,000 a lot of momentum stealing skill sets. I think he's gonna play a 446 00:30:52,000 --> 00:30:56,039 big chunk of time again on the penalty kill in Pittsburgh, an area that 447 00:30:56,079 --> 00:31:00,160 really need rebuilt after a lot of inconstrust, inconsistent struggles last year and really 448 00:31:00,319 --> 00:31:03,240 lack a sense of urgency, so a cherry I think, like the other 449 00:31:03,559 --> 00:31:08,279 players, Dubis has brought in posts that strong defensive return keeps the puck out 450 00:31:08,279 --> 00:31:12,279 of the out of his own zone altogether. But the given the fact that 451 00:31:12,319 --> 00:31:18,960 he's a puck retriever that north the South pace, constantly putting himself in positions 452 00:31:18,000 --> 00:31:22,480 to generate a lot of takeaways. I expect Mike Sullivan loves that kind of 453 00:31:22,519 --> 00:31:26,440 guy, right, and that true utility forward that can fill in a gap 454 00:31:26,480 --> 00:31:32,039 anywhere up and down the lineup without causing at the significant level of nosedive drop 455 00:31:32,079 --> 00:31:33,880 off. He's not going to score a ton of points, right, But 456 00:31:34,599 --> 00:31:40,440 I think given the style of play that he employs and the way the Penguins 457 00:31:40,480 --> 00:31:44,119 four check, that is a name that may see surprise time in the top 458 00:31:44,160 --> 00:31:47,839 sex talk about the gap that a Jake Genzl creates at the beginning of a 459 00:31:47,880 --> 00:31:52,400 season. Hey, maybe that's the face we see filling in that time here 460 00:31:52,400 --> 00:31:55,880 and there alongside Sidney Crosby in a rotational base. I don't know, we'll 461 00:31:55,920 --> 00:31:59,440 see, but it's I think one of significance for me and that when you're 462 00:31:59,440 --> 00:32:01,960 around and hear people talk about the signing, it's one that everyone in the 463 00:32:02,039 --> 00:32:07,880 organization seems to be like, low key abuzz about and a player that Kyle 464 00:32:07,920 --> 00:32:14,480 Deubis and his staff developed a great affinity for in their previous experience with Yeah, 465 00:32:14,559 --> 00:32:16,960 great stuff on the forwards. We're gonna move on to the blue line 466 00:32:17,000 --> 00:32:20,400 now, and for the first time in a long time, we were not 467 00:32:20,440 --> 00:32:22,720 going to talk Chris Latang first when we come to this blue line. So, 468 00:32:22,799 --> 00:32:27,480 yeah, I wonder what happened. Yeah, so Eric Carlson, obviously 469 00:32:27,599 --> 00:32:30,160 we are get to cover him again because previously we covered him in the San 470 00:32:30,200 --> 00:32:35,319 Jose team preview. But now he's a Penguin and we gotta dissect what's going 471 00:32:35,359 --> 00:32:38,160 to happen here. You've already alluded to some of the big question marks here. 472 00:32:38,200 --> 00:32:40,480 We don't really know how they're going to set up the power play. 473 00:32:40,519 --> 00:32:43,880 We could talk all about what he did in San Jose, but I don't 474 00:32:43,880 --> 00:32:46,200 think any of that's really that relevant to what's going to happen in Pittsburgh because 475 00:32:46,640 --> 00:32:51,000 he had all the time, all the opportunity, and things are going to 476 00:32:51,039 --> 00:32:54,599 shift now they have two great offensive defense when they have great offensive weapons at 477 00:32:54,599 --> 00:32:59,359 forward, But do they line one of them up and a shooting role? 478 00:32:59,400 --> 00:33:01,680 Do they do they put them both out there? Do they alternate? I 479 00:33:01,799 --> 00:33:07,000 saw what happened with Burns and Carlson, and it just never really worked with 480 00:33:07,000 --> 00:33:08,240 the two of them out there. And obviously lit Tang's a different player, 481 00:33:08,279 --> 00:33:13,160 But you what is your sense of what they're gonna do. It's gonna these 482 00:33:13,200 --> 00:33:16,400 two could just eat into their fantasy relevance and neither can be as good, 483 00:33:16,519 --> 00:33:20,319 or they could somehow make it work and they're both great players. But what 484 00:33:20,440 --> 00:33:22,640 is your sense of how they're gonna work this out? Jesse? Yeah, 485 00:33:22,680 --> 00:33:25,839 I think they're both gonna play twenty six minutes at night, I do. 486 00:33:27,039 --> 00:33:30,480 I think that's what's gonna happen is the Penguins are going to really deploy two 487 00:33:30,480 --> 00:33:35,240 pairings hot, and then that turns their third pairing, which will have Pierre 488 00:33:35,279 --> 00:33:37,880 Olivier, Joseph and I and probably Chad Rue Wheedle, that is going to 489 00:33:37,960 --> 00:33:44,519 be scantily used, probably mostly after special team situations, post power play, 490 00:33:44,880 --> 00:33:49,960 things of that nature. Those guys will handle those minutes extraordinarily well, but 491 00:33:50,000 --> 00:33:53,559 they're just going to be scant I think that you'll probably see, if I 492 00:33:53,599 --> 00:33:59,000 had to guess, Marcus Patterson be the guy who plays alongside Eric Carlson. 493 00:33:59,440 --> 00:34:04,799 Patterson being the more defensive specialist, really not concerned about joining the rush or 494 00:34:04,839 --> 00:34:08,599 participating in offense at all. That to me screams Eric Carlson partner. Because 495 00:34:08,800 --> 00:34:13,960 you need somebody back there to take care of the business that will undoubtedly get 496 00:34:14,000 --> 00:34:17,519 made from him joining the rush and being that sort of fourth forward that will 497 00:34:17,559 --> 00:34:22,320 put I think a little bit of it's that defensive defenseman that allows him to 498 00:34:22,320 --> 00:34:25,599 flip the switch and not be concerned about what's going on defensively, so he'll 499 00:34:25,639 --> 00:34:30,400 have that going for him. Look, this is just a puck mover right 500 00:34:30,440 --> 00:34:32,840 at the end of the day, a guy who can distribute and move the 501 00:34:32,880 --> 00:34:38,719 puck in an absolutely insane way, who's probably looking at a situation where he's 502 00:34:38,760 --> 00:34:44,239 going to get a scooping helping of minutes with Sidney Crosby, who we just 503 00:34:44,280 --> 00:34:45,880 said is still one of the best players in the world when it comes to 504 00:34:45,920 --> 00:34:50,920 seeing the play and breaking it down and making offensive contribution. At the end 505 00:34:50,920 --> 00:34:53,079 of the day, this is going to be a unique circumstance for him, 506 00:34:53,119 --> 00:34:58,280 and I think one that I will never You'll never catch me saying that. 507 00:34:58,360 --> 00:35:00,840 I think another hundred point season is on the horizon for him, right because 508 00:35:00,840 --> 00:35:07,559 that's so hard to do and we hadn't seen it happen for some time for 509 00:35:07,599 --> 00:35:12,320 a reason. But I don't think that you write him off. I don't 510 00:35:12,320 --> 00:35:15,519 think he's going to drop down to the eighty point threshold all of a sudden 511 00:35:15,559 --> 00:35:19,920 and just crash and burn. I still think that there's a lot of value 512 00:35:19,960 --> 00:35:23,760 here. The Penguins are just for me anyway. You take the Crosby thing 513 00:35:23,760 --> 00:35:28,480 into consideration. Against will be there when he gets back, But just the 514 00:35:28,639 --> 00:35:34,880 system is I think a little bit more aggressive and more welcoming of his sort 515 00:35:34,880 --> 00:35:38,360 of philosophies, if you will. So all of that into consideration, right, 516 00:35:38,400 --> 00:35:42,119 I think you're looking at a much different situation for him going into this 517 00:35:42,199 --> 00:35:47,000 year. Let's not neglect Chris Latang though, because he is He's an outstanding 518 00:35:47,039 --> 00:35:52,679 defenseman in his own right. He was actually the eighth best defenseman in fantasy 519 00:35:52,719 --> 00:35:57,360 hockey last year and absolute top tier guy. These two years of good health 520 00:35:57,400 --> 00:36:00,039 were great, those two. That is, in the last year it fell 521 00:36:00,079 --> 00:36:05,360 off. He missed some time off the ice, there was some knicks and 522 00:36:05,360 --> 00:36:08,159 bruises, and then there was some really nasty personal stuff that he was dealing 523 00:36:08,199 --> 00:36:14,000 with as well. That certainly is not on him. If you allege that 524 00:36:14,079 --> 00:36:16,960 he doesn't stick injuries out, if you want to say that it's because he's 525 00:36:17,000 --> 00:36:21,760 not tough enough, dude took a puck to the face, was bleeding everywhere, 526 00:36:21,800 --> 00:36:24,400 and came back out the next game. Last year, Latang is tough, 527 00:36:24,760 --> 00:36:30,079 There's no doubt about it. Optimistic view would be that forty one points 528 00:36:30,079 --> 00:36:34,159 in a sixty four game season will bounce back in the new year in past 529 00:36:34,280 --> 00:36:37,079 those challenges of last year. The pessimist would say, he's thirty six. 530 00:36:37,159 --> 00:36:42,599 He's sharing the blue line with a better offensive defenseman for probably the first time 531 00:36:42,639 --> 00:36:45,719 in his career. I would venture to guess, which side are you on? 532 00:36:45,880 --> 00:36:49,079 What kind of Chryst Latang performance do you think that we'll see this year? 533 00:36:49,159 --> 00:36:52,960 Jesse. The interesting thing here is you start to get into the nuance 534 00:36:52,000 --> 00:36:57,280 of how his environment's changed. If not just a Carlson Pieces partner for the 535 00:36:57,360 --> 00:37:00,199 first time in a long time, is not Brian Doom And I think most 536 00:37:00,239 --> 00:37:05,000 people in Pittsburgh would tell you that's a good thing. Last year that just 537 00:37:05,159 --> 00:37:09,039 that partnership did not work. Dumolin struggled mightily. The sort of quote unquote 538 00:37:09,039 --> 00:37:14,760 safety valve for Latang was no longer there, and did this harmony between that 539 00:37:14,920 --> 00:37:20,559 unit affected both of their play negatively. So Ryan Grave steps in and he 540 00:37:20,719 --> 00:37:22,800 is, for all intents and purposes, the guy who's probably going to get 541 00:37:22,800 --> 00:37:29,559 the minutes alongside Latang in this new and new rebuilt defense from Kyle Dubis. 542 00:37:29,559 --> 00:37:32,840 And I think most people are expecting that to be a positive, potentially even 543 00:37:32,880 --> 00:37:37,400 to lessen the burden. And I'll give you guys an example too. Think 544 00:37:37,400 --> 00:37:44,199 of it this way. Jesse teams last year targeted Brian Dumlin on entry right 545 00:37:44,400 --> 00:37:47,920 knowing that whether they were dumping it in, skating it in, they were 546 00:37:47,960 --> 00:37:53,559 going to press him and create a burden on Christang that potentially this year that 547 00:37:53,639 --> 00:37:58,679 goes away. And I think that just from a thinking of from the perspective 548 00:37:58,679 --> 00:38:01,880 of being a defenseman, that really changes your mindset and how often you can 549 00:38:01,920 --> 00:38:06,639 take a green light when it's presented to you to jump into the play, 550 00:38:06,679 --> 00:38:09,440 to pinch, to be risky if you don't have that nagging thought in the 551 00:38:09,440 --> 00:38:13,840 back of your head of this hasn't been working out. My partners struggling, 552 00:38:14,280 --> 00:38:16,679 we have. We've been allowing a ton of odd man rushes. All of 553 00:38:16,719 --> 00:38:22,000 the video review is about us, that's not about You're Probably you're gonna be 554 00:38:22,000 --> 00:38:27,159 a little bit more hesitant. So I think this is a situation potentially Jesse 555 00:38:27,320 --> 00:38:30,199 or Iron Sharp AND's iron and I know you're not. You're not going to 556 00:38:30,280 --> 00:38:35,719 see Carlson and Latange play together. I think unless it's the end of a 557 00:38:35,760 --> 00:38:40,480 game and Mike Sullivan's putting out the Transformer Juggernaut to try to get a goal, 558 00:38:40,800 --> 00:38:45,519 all intents and purposes aside, that'll exist, right, But we haven't 559 00:38:45,559 --> 00:38:50,920 traditionally seen Mike Sullivan used Smalkin and Crosby together. That was very much a 560 00:38:50,920 --> 00:38:52,880 thing that Michelle Terran and Dan Bosman would save for the end of a game 561 00:38:52,960 --> 00:38:55,320 or when they were down a goal and needed one. But he won't. 562 00:38:55,400 --> 00:39:00,400 He doesn't even really do that anymore. I think that they'll distinctly carry their 563 00:39:00,440 --> 00:39:05,840 own identities on this team. Those identities will be inherently similar, but I 564 00:39:05,880 --> 00:39:09,000 think that they'll be separate enough that outside of the power play, we may 565 00:39:09,039 --> 00:39:15,840 not really see them interact much at all. Yeah, and I think you 566 00:39:15,880 --> 00:39:19,079 said they're both right shots, Latang and Carlson, So like you said, 567 00:39:19,119 --> 00:39:21,519 you don't want to have him out there too long together, or at least 568 00:39:21,559 --> 00:39:24,880 it's not optimal. So Ryan Graves, I will just say, yeah, 569 00:39:24,920 --> 00:39:30,119 he is definitely a guy that the Penguins are investing in, and he played 570 00:39:30,159 --> 00:39:34,199 for the Devil's last two seasons. Last year, point every three games, 571 00:39:34,360 --> 00:39:37,760 two shots, two blocks, and a hit every game twenty minutes. He 572 00:39:37,880 --> 00:39:42,920 was out there for seventy eight games, and he's got a long future investment 573 00:39:43,079 --> 00:39:47,039 of six years four point five her. He really was getting buried in New 574 00:39:47,119 --> 00:39:52,280 Jersey's defensive system. But he should really get a good opportunity, like you 575 00:39:52,320 --> 00:39:57,199 said, with the Penguins. So in terms of his importance to Latang, 576 00:39:57,360 --> 00:40:00,960 I think you've covered that. You see a impact in terms of Graves himself 577 00:40:01,159 --> 00:40:07,239 being somebody who's going to have good production stats for this team. Again, 578 00:40:07,360 --> 00:40:09,920 we're going to be looking at him in a situation where he's gonna be deployed 579 00:40:10,000 --> 00:40:15,599 even strength and a lot of high leverage offensive situations. But here's what I'm 580 00:40:15,599 --> 00:40:17,760 looking at, guys. His quality of competitions about to get a significant moment 581 00:40:19,320 --> 00:40:22,320 and quality of players he sees on the other side of the ice, some 582 00:40:22,360 --> 00:40:28,199 of the difficulties of deployments. Potentially that'll all change. They are not going 583 00:40:28,280 --> 00:40:34,280 to ask him to be a transitional puck distributor on this pairing. That is 584 00:40:34,320 --> 00:40:36,920 not going to be the ask. I think if he can do that, 585 00:40:37,000 --> 00:40:39,840 if Latang gets targeted if you will, and they're really loading up on him. 586 00:40:39,960 --> 00:40:44,559 A graves can do it great, But I just I don't know what 587 00:40:44,599 --> 00:40:50,239 this role, if you will, spells for him offensively. Although the environment 588 00:40:50,280 --> 00:40:53,039 will be friendly to him and all who have talented players around him, I 589 00:40:53,159 --> 00:40:58,000 just I don't know that they're going to ask him to do things that put 590 00:40:58,079 --> 00:41:01,639 him in a position to score a lot of points. Namely, we know 591 00:41:01,800 --> 00:41:06,280 Latang likes to join the play. We know he's going to want to join 592 00:41:06,320 --> 00:41:09,119 the rush. You can't have two defensemen on the same pairing doing that work. 593 00:41:09,280 --> 00:41:13,519 You have no one back. You could do it, but you'd look 594 00:41:13,559 --> 00:41:15,360 a lot like the Buffalo Sabers from a couple of years ago. So I 595 00:41:15,880 --> 00:41:21,920 think that ultimately, when you get down to it, I'm providing a tale 596 00:41:21,960 --> 00:41:24,840 of caution here from a fantasy perspective, because I know I think the potential 597 00:41:24,960 --> 00:41:30,000 is high, it also comes with a great bitter risk just in that deployment. 598 00:41:30,039 --> 00:41:35,639 Wise, in his role, you may see him be asked to be 599 00:41:35,679 --> 00:41:43,760 a little bit more discerning about how he participates in the game offensively. Yeah, 600 00:41:43,800 --> 00:41:46,239 good points, Especially the quality of competition. That's a really underrated thing 601 00:41:46,280 --> 00:41:51,440 that people just assume you can increase minutes or switch them around. It's not 602 00:41:51,480 --> 00:41:53,519 equivalent. It's not the same. Yeah, and let me throw this at 603 00:41:53,519 --> 00:41:57,920 you two Victor. Last year he was just really not good at all in 604 00:41:58,000 --> 00:42:01,320 elevating his teammates with passing. And I think that's why the Penguins are comfortable 605 00:42:01,360 --> 00:42:07,199 with him not having this like super active role in the offensive side. Is 606 00:42:07,400 --> 00:42:13,519 I think it's like sub ten percentile defensively in terms of like passes that led 607 00:42:13,559 --> 00:42:15,880 to a shot or a scoring chance. He throws a lot of rubber at 608 00:42:15,880 --> 00:42:19,840 the net. Sure, yeah, great at that, but I think that 609 00:42:20,159 --> 00:42:23,360 he lacks the discernment. But if you think about that logically, like super 610 00:42:23,400 --> 00:42:29,480 low percentile and setting up passes and shot attempts for your teammates super high percentile 611 00:42:29,519 --> 00:42:31,599 and taking the shots yourself, that kind of tells a little bit of a 612 00:42:31,679 --> 00:42:37,000 narrative, right, like, I don't maybe you're taking too many shots. 613 00:42:37,000 --> 00:42:39,039 I don't know, So I think maybe that's I think why maybe the Penguins 614 00:42:39,039 --> 00:42:43,000 are like comfortable saying, hey, cool, we're not even gonna put you 615 00:42:43,079 --> 00:42:45,800 in that situation. We're not going to ask you to do that. Go 616 00:42:45,880 --> 00:42:51,239 out there and follow fifty eight Yeah, that's a good plan. Just follow 617 00:42:51,280 --> 00:42:53,639 him. I want to ask you about a couple of the depth defensemen you 618 00:42:53,719 --> 00:42:59,280 mentioned Pierre Olivier, Joseph Poj and Tye Smith is another guy. Both these 619 00:42:59,280 --> 00:43:04,079 guys are two young players who haven't quite translated their games successfully. I would 620 00:43:04,119 --> 00:43:08,480 say to the NHL. We did see Smith spent some time in the HL 621 00:43:08,679 --> 00:43:13,719 and then came back and did a little bit better in the NHL, and 622 00:43:13,800 --> 00:43:17,840 Poj has been someone who's been They spend most of the time this season in 623 00:43:17,880 --> 00:43:22,400 the NHL and in a little bit more of a sheltered, isolated role. 624 00:43:22,480 --> 00:43:25,000 So you mentioned that you thought Poj would be third line. Do you think 625 00:43:25,039 --> 00:43:30,440 ty Smith gets a look do Either of these guys have probably not upside this 626 00:43:30,519 --> 00:43:32,400 year because they got the two big guns now, but what do you think 627 00:43:32,440 --> 00:43:37,079 the future holes for these two? Yeah, ty Smith rough year, not 628 00:43:37,440 --> 00:43:42,119 cap casualty at the start of things, didn't get any time with the team. 629 00:43:42,119 --> 00:43:45,519 It's just a result of the situation from a money perspective. Run Hextall, 630 00:43:45,039 --> 00:43:47,480 I think, really put himself in a pickle there at the start of 631 00:43:47,480 --> 00:43:52,960 the year, but then didn't play well enough in the American Hockey League to 632 00:43:54,239 --> 00:44:00,480 wow, anyone or warrant some kind of call up. Didn't play his way 633 00:44:00,519 --> 00:44:01,519 into the league, and then when he was in the NHL, it was 634 00:44:01,559 --> 00:44:05,639 fine, it was okay, but it wasn't. You wouldn't. I don't 635 00:44:05,639 --> 00:44:08,360 think, say, you know anything better than what Pierre Olivia Joseph gave you. 636 00:44:08,920 --> 00:44:12,480 So look this again. I think this is going to be a really 637 00:44:12,519 --> 00:44:16,119 reduced role for whoever gets this job. I think you're talking about limited minutes 638 00:44:16,639 --> 00:44:21,960 and a very much a babysat deployment, if you will. That's spoon fed 639 00:44:22,039 --> 00:44:24,360 in a way of playing t ball. Here a little bit. You've got 640 00:44:24,400 --> 00:44:29,480 tang and or Carlson taking up a lot of the tough stuff, and then 641 00:44:29,480 --> 00:44:34,760 you're left with your bat and clean up. I think I think it's gonna 642 00:44:34,800 --> 00:44:42,159 be Poj. He exhibited a lot of offensive competence for his role last year. 643 00:44:42,559 --> 00:44:45,800 I don't think I matriculated in terms of points, but if you look 644 00:44:45,840 --> 00:44:49,159 at the micro data, he was able to support the play in ways that 645 00:44:49,199 --> 00:44:52,920 I don't think Tye Smith was. So I think it's Poj's job to lose. 646 00:44:53,480 --> 00:44:57,880 I expect him to use a little bit more of the game's played savvy 647 00:44:57,960 --> 00:45:02,800 he has in recent history to his advantage. But again, this role has 648 00:45:02,840 --> 00:45:07,639 just been neutered so badly by the arrival of Eric Carlson that it's just almost 649 00:45:07,639 --> 00:45:13,199 fruitless to even sniff around these parts, just because at the end of the 650 00:45:13,280 --> 00:45:17,400 day, I think it's just really going to be a limited role. Yeah, 651 00:45:17,559 --> 00:45:20,960 good point. All right, let's move on to the goalies. So 652 00:45:21,039 --> 00:45:24,760 the Penguins had the twenty second ranked expected goals against per sixty according to Evolving 653 00:45:24,800 --> 00:45:29,360 Hockey, gave up only the nineteenth ranked actual goals, so they were a 654 00:45:29,360 --> 00:45:34,239 little bit better than expected. Tristan Jarry got the big contract five point three 655 00:45:34,320 --> 00:45:37,679 seventy five for five years. He was pretty good overall in terms of like 656 00:45:37,800 --> 00:45:42,920 volume nine or nine say percentage, but his goals expect goals above expected was 657 00:45:42,920 --> 00:45:45,400 a little negative, as was his delta Fenwick at even strength, so he 658 00:45:45,480 --> 00:45:51,840 a little bit underperformed there. And they don't have Cases the Smith anymore. 659 00:45:51,920 --> 00:45:54,159 They have a new backup. Do you think Jarry's role changes at all? 660 00:45:54,199 --> 00:45:59,000 I got the money, he's the guy. I'm not sure we can expect 661 00:45:59,000 --> 00:46:01,800 too much different from him. Maybe a little bit improvement from those numbers. 662 00:46:01,800 --> 00:46:06,880 What do you think Jarry season has in store. I don't think anyone knows 663 00:46:06,880 --> 00:46:09,320 the victor spin the wheel, Where does the land? Where does the Tristan 664 00:46:09,400 --> 00:46:15,079 Jarry wheel land Today? There's a gross lack of consistency around his performance. 665 00:46:15,079 --> 00:46:16,679 We have to acknowledge that first, and then we have to talk about his 666 00:46:16,719 --> 00:46:21,679 availability. Right, his health is a problem. Last year especially, he 667 00:46:21,760 --> 00:46:27,000 was nagged all season long by recurring I don't know nobody really ever said it 668 00:46:27,039 --> 00:46:30,039 was the hip, but you get the sense from watching him that it was 669 00:46:30,079 --> 00:46:34,920 the hip. And he kept referencing like an issue that was affecting his mobility, 670 00:46:35,159 --> 00:46:38,360 so growing hip something like that. Right, Maybe one of those two 671 00:46:38,920 --> 00:46:45,199 that is what the wheel landed on last season is that we got this incomplete 672 00:46:45,199 --> 00:46:47,480 picture of Tristan Jarry because of his health. And then the last year's we 673 00:46:47,519 --> 00:46:52,480 got this incomplete picture of Tristan Jarry because of his health. And then the 674 00:46:52,800 --> 00:46:54,280 year before that it was really good and he got to the All Star Game 675 00:46:54,320 --> 00:46:58,519 and then it fell out. Two things, I'll tell you one, health 676 00:46:59,079 --> 00:47:06,199 consistency tantamount to the Penguins getting into the postseason. Because Alex Nidelkovic I don't 677 00:47:06,280 --> 00:47:10,639 think is the solution long term at goal. I don't think that they've that's 678 00:47:10,639 --> 00:47:15,480 a that's a that to me is perhaps an equivalency to Casey to Smith, 679 00:47:16,280 --> 00:47:21,480 and just Casey to Smith, someone else who had consistency issues and appearance issues 680 00:47:22,079 --> 00:47:24,000 that that may have been the core of the decision to move on there. 681 00:47:24,559 --> 00:47:28,480 But Jarr's got to get it. He's got to prove a lot of stuff 682 00:47:28,519 --> 00:47:31,639 to people. People in Pittsburgh are very skeptical of this contract. I don't 683 00:47:31,719 --> 00:47:37,920 like giving term to goalies period, unless they're Igor Sterkin or one of the 684 00:47:37,960 --> 00:47:42,039 generational talents that you have out there right now. I just I'm so leery 685 00:47:42,119 --> 00:47:44,880 of it. And with Jarry we have there's just so many things that have 686 00:47:44,960 --> 00:47:49,920 never playoffs. His playoff track record up to this point is abysmal, abysmal, 687 00:47:50,360 --> 00:47:54,199 not good at all, horrible. You take that hand in hand and 688 00:47:54,280 --> 00:47:58,199 you look, and I'll say this, people maybe listening to this podcast saying, 689 00:47:58,239 --> 00:48:01,519 oh, Jesse, you're crazy. There's no difference between the regular season 690 00:48:01,519 --> 00:48:07,920 and the playoffs for a goalie. Tell that to Sergey Bobrovski, like up 691 00:48:07,000 --> 00:48:10,320 to this year, but this is a totally different guy in the postseason than 692 00:48:10,320 --> 00:48:14,719 he was in the regular season. And I you just don't have that solution. 693 00:48:14,800 --> 00:48:17,239 That answer doesn't exist for Tristan Jerry, and that's such a big question 694 00:48:17,280 --> 00:48:22,159 mark, right, It's a huge question mark. And then there's chunks of 695 00:48:22,199 --> 00:48:25,920 the regular season where he lights out best guy in the league, all Star 696 00:48:27,000 --> 00:48:31,920 caliber golie that like you come back from the All Star Game and it's like 697 00:48:32,800 --> 00:48:37,679 the bottom falls out. So he's just never stretched it end to end. 698 00:48:37,119 --> 00:48:40,880 He's never been a starting goalie from the beginning to the year of the year 699 00:48:40,920 --> 00:48:44,599 to the end of the year. That has never happened, right, Like, 700 00:48:44,639 --> 00:48:46,920 he's never given you that full example of what he can do in a 701 00:48:46,960 --> 00:48:52,519 consistent and regular basis. Kyle Dubez is betting he's going to do that this 702 00:48:52,599 --> 00:48:54,920 year, but it would be the first time that had happened. So I 703 00:48:54,960 --> 00:49:00,159 guess color me skept the goal, right you old George W. Bush say 704 00:49:00,199 --> 00:49:02,039 fool me once, shame on me, fol me twice, Yanga, fool 705 00:49:02,039 --> 00:49:06,440 me again. That's how I am right now. I just until I see 706 00:49:06,480 --> 00:49:08,480 it. It's great to talk about the possibilities, guys, but there are 707 00:49:08,519 --> 00:49:12,760 just possibilities until they matriculate. Let me tell you something, Jesse. There's 708 00:49:12,800 --> 00:49:15,000 a lot of people who listen to the shows that say, Jesse, you're 709 00:49:15,039 --> 00:49:20,119 crazy, but none of it that you said, so you don't have to 710 00:49:20,119 --> 00:49:23,480 worry about that. Instead, you've brought us some great takes tonight. Information 711 00:49:23,519 --> 00:49:27,719 on this Penguins team. Why don't you let people know how they can keep 712 00:49:27,800 --> 00:49:30,599 up with all the work you've got going out there, Jesse. Yeah, 713 00:49:30,719 --> 00:49:35,360 Penguins specific work you'll find at the Athletic dot com. I'm just talking about 714 00:49:35,360 --> 00:49:37,440 them there, but then at mckeyons they let me talk about whatever I want. 715 00:49:37,480 --> 00:49:42,599 In the National Hockey League that's usually non Penguin related. So depending on 716 00:49:42,639 --> 00:49:45,480 what you're in the mood to read, one of the two are generally opposite 717 00:49:45,480 --> 00:49:49,519 of each other. So generally Penguin's at the Athletic and everything else in mckeens 718 00:49:49,519 --> 00:49:53,079 talky outstanding. Thank you so much for coming on today, Jesse, and 719 00:49:53,199 --> 00:49:57,719 good luck following those Penguins this year. Yeah. Just you know your listeners 720 00:49:57,719 --> 00:50:00,639 won't know this, guys, but I made you punt the show from yesterday 721 00:50:00,679 --> 00:50:04,199 to today because I had a child that wouldn't sleep. Thanks for being flexible 722 00:50:04,199 --> 00:50:07,840 as always, appreciate it, No no problem, Glad to have you here. 723 00:50:14,000 --> 00:50:19,119 Wilson. That's good. Fire passed up Oh my goodness, walk go 724 00:50:19,320 --> 00:50:27,480 with a cat quick grab. Now it's your weekly Goalie Talk with Cats Silverman 725 00:50:27,960 --> 00:50:34,039 Cat's Instincts. Time again for Cat's Instincts with Cat Silverman of INGL Mag Pittsburgh 726 00:50:34,199 --> 00:50:37,719 Penguin Edition. And we definitely have a couple of good ones here to talk 727 00:50:37,760 --> 00:50:40,639 about. I wouldn't say that their system has a ton of depth, but 728 00:50:40,719 --> 00:50:45,239 they got I think at least one really good one, maybe two. And 729 00:50:45,280 --> 00:50:49,960 the first one we're gonna talk about Joel or Joel bloom Quist, twenty twenty 730 00:50:50,000 --> 00:50:53,480 second round pick by Pittsburgh six two hundred and eighty three pounds. Kim up 731 00:50:53,480 --> 00:50:58,639 in the car pat system, and we know you like that system for goalies, 732 00:50:59,280 --> 00:51:04,159 and he was in car Pot pretty much the whole season this past year, 733 00:51:04,280 --> 00:51:07,519 played one game in the HL. I believe there was even some discussion 734 00:51:07,559 --> 00:51:13,679 of him blowing off some international appearance that because he wanted to come to North 735 00:51:13,719 --> 00:51:17,360 America and be in the HL. He also played one game last season in 736 00:51:17,400 --> 00:51:23,920 the HL, so anyways, interesting for him. His trajectory looks decent. 737 00:51:24,079 --> 00:51:28,800 He's up at twenty seven percent chance of being an NHL with a really strong 738 00:51:28,880 --> 00:51:31,599 LEGA performance this year. He's got some decent comps. One of them. 739 00:51:31,960 --> 00:51:37,679 I think that seems to fit a little bit as Jordan Binnington, who's an 740 00:51:37,679 --> 00:51:43,039 average starter in the Liga. Some of his underlying numbers show that he was 741 00:51:43,079 --> 00:51:45,880 one of the better goalies and saved percentage above expected, but more average and 742 00:51:45,920 --> 00:51:51,239 goal save above expected. So kat is bloom Quist the next starter for the 743 00:51:51,280 --> 00:51:55,360 Pens. What do your instincts tell us about Yoel Bloomquist now that he is 744 00:51:55,400 --> 00:52:00,960 the only goaltender left from that little era? Were they nice a little slew 745 00:52:00,039 --> 00:52:07,639 of goaltenders if they have traded playing to the Anaheim Ducks to join Lucas Dostall 746 00:52:07,719 --> 00:52:10,800 there, Yeah, I think he's probably the next starter. He's an interesting 747 00:52:10,840 --> 00:52:16,920 goaltender because he is a Finnish national. He's from a unique part of Finland. 748 00:52:16,960 --> 00:52:21,280 He's from right across the border from Sweden, so he's actually a Swedish 749 00:52:21,280 --> 00:52:25,079 speaking Finnish player with a Swedish name, which is fun. The only other 750 00:52:27,039 --> 00:52:30,920 player that I know from that area is a former Vancouver Canucks draft pick, 751 00:52:31,039 --> 00:52:36,880 Jonathan Elatti, who played for the junior system. I believe he played for 752 00:52:36,920 --> 00:52:40,079 the national team when they won silver back in twenty ten or eleven. And 753 00:52:40,199 --> 00:52:45,599 that's just like a fun little area where the players get access to some of 754 00:52:45,639 --> 00:52:51,360 the Swedish goaltending systems. But then they also are a Finnish nationality, so 755 00:52:51,360 --> 00:52:52,880 they get to go and play in the fin on the Finnish teams. And 756 00:52:53,559 --> 00:52:59,079 you see that in the way the Bomquist plays because a lot of those Finnish 757 00:52:59,159 --> 00:53:01,400 goaltenders are a little more aggressive. They like to come out to the top 758 00:53:01,440 --> 00:53:07,039 of the crease. They play a little bit more of a vertical game where 759 00:53:07,079 --> 00:53:12,079 they move forward and backwards very aggressively. They stay a little bit lower and 760 00:53:12,119 --> 00:53:15,559 from Vlomcosts you see a little bit more of that Swedish style where he stays 761 00:53:15,599 --> 00:53:17,519 a little bit more conservative, a little closer to the goal line, makes 762 00:53:17,519 --> 00:53:22,920 more of those lateral movements, stays just a little bit calmer, and has 763 00:53:22,000 --> 00:53:25,880 a more instinctive game from his knees than he does from his feet. But 764 00:53:25,920 --> 00:53:30,679 he's a lot of fun to watch because he does play such a good hybrid 765 00:53:30,719 --> 00:53:34,719 system where he gets some of the aggression and he's able to use his hands 766 00:53:34,760 --> 00:53:37,119 really nicely like some of the Finnish goaltenders, and then he gets that good 767 00:53:37,119 --> 00:53:44,079 smooth skating from some of the Swedish goaltenders and really seems to know when to 768 00:53:44,199 --> 00:53:47,719 utilize different parts of his game to thrive. So I'm excited to see how 769 00:53:47,719 --> 00:53:52,199 he does. It seems like he's ravenous to come to North America and start 770 00:53:52,199 --> 00:53:57,159 playing here, which is exciting for Penns fans in particular. I think that 771 00:53:58,000 --> 00:54:00,880 having a goaltender that you know is going to be a promising prospect who really 772 00:54:00,920 --> 00:54:05,079 wants to come over and play in your system. That's all any team can 773 00:54:05,119 --> 00:54:09,239 ever hope for. So I think he probably will need a year of HL 774 00:54:09,360 --> 00:54:15,079 time at least, but it looks like he's been doing well over in Finland, 775 00:54:15,199 --> 00:54:20,559 so we'll see how he does when he comes over. Yeah, his 776 00:54:20,880 --> 00:54:24,559 one game each of the last two seasons probably not enough in the HL too 777 00:54:25,280 --> 00:54:29,519 get acclimated. So yeah, we'll give it a year. We'll check back. 778 00:54:29,519 --> 00:54:32,400 Anon blown Quiz, I love that about the blend of Swedish and Finnish 779 00:54:32,639 --> 00:54:37,559 styles that hopefully he takes the best of both worlds. That would be the 780 00:54:37,639 --> 00:54:40,400 ideal. Super cool. All right, let's talk about the next guy, 781 00:54:40,519 --> 00:54:45,480 and that is Sergei Muroshov. He was twenty twenty two, fourth round pick 782 00:54:45,559 --> 00:54:50,000 six one hundred seventy pound. He's in the locomotive system over there in Russia. 783 00:54:50,119 --> 00:54:52,960 Primarily played in the MHL this past season, but did have one KHL 784 00:54:53,039 --> 00:54:58,440 game which went very well, thank you very much. And he actually looks 785 00:54:58,480 --> 00:55:01,320 really good in the Hockey pros specking system. I'm pretty sure that this system 786 00:55:01,480 --> 00:55:07,280 favors MHL goals if I remember correctly, and from what I've seen, it 787 00:55:07,320 --> 00:55:09,559 definitely does. He's up at forty six percent chance of being an NHLer, 788 00:55:09,639 --> 00:55:14,280 which is really high, and he started at forty three. So he's got 789 00:55:14,280 --> 00:55:17,880 a bunch of really interesting comps, guys like Philip Gustafson, Kelly klang Leet 790 00:55:17,960 --> 00:55:25,440 Nabakov which is not the Genny version of the Nabakoff, and Nikolai Hobby Bullen 791 00:55:25,559 --> 00:55:30,440 is actually someone that he looks somewhat like in this system, and that would 792 00:55:30,440 --> 00:55:32,920 be a good outcome. He was a pretty good NHLer. It's in the 793 00:55:34,039 --> 00:55:37,280 MHL system for the sport contract. They have these underlyings and he was like 794 00:55:37,440 --> 00:55:43,119 near the top of that league and just about every metric save percent above expected, 795 00:55:43,159 --> 00:55:45,360 goal save above expected So, Kat, what are your instincts tell us 796 00:55:45,360 --> 00:55:51,079 about Sergey Miershov. He looks like he's going to be a lot of fun 797 00:55:51,119 --> 00:55:54,039 whatever is going on in Euros level right now and the Locomotive system. I 798 00:55:54,079 --> 00:55:59,519 know that the Arizona Hearties picked two players from there. I believe both of 799 00:55:59,559 --> 00:56:04,039 their first round picks we're from that system. So whatever they're doing over there, 800 00:56:04,079 --> 00:56:08,119 it's exciting the NHL emensely, which is great. But I was looking 801 00:56:08,159 --> 00:56:13,239 up some of Miroshov's numbers and stats and a little bit about his style, 802 00:56:13,280 --> 00:56:19,800 and he looks like he was almost out playing the rest of the MHL last 803 00:56:19,880 --> 00:56:22,920 year, like he should have been playing at a higher level, because just 804 00:56:23,000 --> 00:56:25,960 to start off the season beside the last year, the year before, he 805 00:56:27,000 --> 00:56:30,840 had six shutouts in the first two or three months of the season. He 806 00:56:30,920 --> 00:56:35,519 was the number one goaltender for the month for a couple of months in there 807 00:56:35,559 --> 00:56:40,159 at that league level. But it's good that he got the game reps in 808 00:56:40,800 --> 00:56:45,239 because that's where sometimes you see when a goaltender looks like they're doing really well 809 00:56:45,480 --> 00:56:50,480 and then they essentially get bumped up and don't get to play as many games 810 00:56:50,519 --> 00:56:54,679 because they're trapped in the system behind someone else. So I don't think he's 811 00:56:54,960 --> 00:57:00,840 going to come over to North America anytime soon, because the jump from the 812 00:57:00,960 --> 00:57:05,760 MHL. Usually you see those players go to either the VHL or KHL full 813 00:57:05,760 --> 00:57:09,239 time for a year or two first and then come over. But it'll be 814 00:57:09,280 --> 00:57:14,440 exciting to see how he does when he moves to play against what, for 815 00:57:14,599 --> 00:57:16,920 lack of a better term, I can really only describe as players who look 816 00:57:17,039 --> 00:57:22,519 more up to his speed because he was out playing his competition in the last 817 00:57:22,599 --> 00:57:29,760 couple of years biowide margins. So Pittsburgh seems to be doing that. They 818 00:57:29,840 --> 00:57:35,280 keep taking these guys who they can hold on too, that really they don't 819 00:57:35,280 --> 00:57:39,079 need to immediately make room for, but who look absolutely stellar wherever they're playing. 820 00:57:39,440 --> 00:57:45,079 So they're not taking any of those high flying bets that they're not taking 821 00:57:45,119 --> 00:57:51,159 guys that have two games played in a league somewhere else that are super tall, 822 00:57:51,320 --> 00:57:53,360 but we don't really have any knowledge of. They're taking guys that they're 823 00:57:53,360 --> 00:57:57,639 getting good sample sizes from, which is smartened, which I think is the 824 00:57:57,760 --> 00:58:02,079 responsible way to accumulate your goaltending system, which they need at this point. 825 00:58:02,119 --> 00:58:06,760 They have Trisan, Jarry and I believe still Casey to Smith, who are 826 00:58:06,880 --> 00:58:10,159 good goaltenders, but they're reaching the point where within the next couple of years 827 00:58:10,159 --> 00:58:14,519 they're going to need to start bringing someone else up to the NHL level, 828 00:58:14,559 --> 00:58:17,480 And it seems like they're doing a good job of keeping their timeline where it'll 829 00:58:17,519 --> 00:58:22,280 be a seamless transition for them, which is handy. Yeah, so, 830 00:58:22,360 --> 00:58:27,719 sir Gray Murshav, maybe to three years down the line, maybe he'll keep 831 00:58:27,760 --> 00:58:32,760 progressing and be one of their be a future goaltender for the Pens. Thanks 832 00:58:32,800 --> 00:58:37,559 so much, Kat for giving us your instincts on the Pittsburgh Penguin goalie system. 833 00:58:37,559 --> 00:59:01,239 Will be back right after this the Dynas b J the Pittsburgh Penguin edition 834 00:59:01,559 --> 00:59:06,760 of The Dynasty dig Boy. This is gonna be It's gonna be an episode 835 00:59:06,840 --> 00:59:10,199 because Victor, you only have this system ranked twenty ninth, and that is 836 00:59:10,199 --> 00:59:15,559 based on a low volume of prospects in whom you have interest. In fact, 837 00:59:15,639 --> 00:59:21,599 today we are only we are breaking precedent the entire history of the Dynasty 838 00:59:21,679 --> 00:59:24,519 dig I think we've covered three every one of these team preview episodes too. 839 00:59:24,559 --> 00:59:29,840 Now it's only going to be two, and let's start out Victor with your 840 00:59:29,880 --> 00:59:36,079 no brainer. No brainer is Braden Jager. Yes, their best prospect is 841 00:59:36,119 --> 00:59:40,199 the one they just drafted. That is the state of this system. Pittsburgh's 842 00:59:40,199 --> 00:59:44,840 first round pick, fourteenth overall from twenty twenty three. He's a six foot 843 00:59:45,320 --> 00:59:50,760 one hundred and seventy pound center. He had twenty goals and fifty assists for 844 00:59:50,920 --> 00:59:54,519 seventy eight points and sixty seven games for Moosejaw of the WHL, his D 845 00:59:54,679 --> 00:59:59,119 minus one. He was both a WHL and CHL Rookie of the Year, 846 00:59:59,159 --> 01:00:02,480 so that's pretty fantastic. Didn't he had a really good draft season, but 847 01:00:02,480 --> 01:00:07,960 it wasn't maybe as good in terms of that perspective his draft season. He 848 01:00:07,960 --> 01:00:12,400 did win the Clinka Gretzky Gold of Canada, which was nice, and due 849 01:00:12,440 --> 01:00:15,199 to his age, he has two more years likely of WHL before he can 850 01:00:15,199 --> 01:00:19,000 go to the HL unless he makes like a really big jump there, which 851 01:00:19,039 --> 01:00:22,519 is possible. At this point, he's still unsigned with the team, but 852 01:00:22,559 --> 01:00:24,800 I would imagine they're going to give him a contract as their best prospect. 853 01:00:27,000 --> 01:00:30,440 In terms of the tracking data from Mitch Brown, overall, he's at a 854 01:00:30,519 --> 01:00:34,280 sixty seventh percentile offense though was definitely the best part where he was at eighty 855 01:00:34,280 --> 01:00:39,039 fourth goals per sixty sorry expected goals per sixty just above one standard deviation, 856 01:00:39,119 --> 01:00:45,960 so around eighty seventh percent dial or so, and the slot passes and slop 857 01:00:45,000 --> 01:00:50,360 pass success also really good. He also was really good in primary points involvement, 858 01:00:50,440 --> 01:00:53,920 which was good game score. The worst part is definitely his defense, 859 01:00:53,960 --> 01:00:59,440 just a twenty fifth percentile defender. Pretty much all of his metrics look pretty 860 01:00:59,599 --> 01:01:02,880 pretty ugly, pretty red. In particular, some of his transition data, 861 01:01:02,960 --> 01:01:06,599 like controlled exits for sixty, he looks pretty low, but some of it 862 01:01:06,599 --> 01:01:09,639 looks pretty good, like his entry is in relative success. So there's a 863 01:01:09,679 --> 01:01:14,320 mixed bag there in terms of his transition in defense, but offense looks really 864 01:01:14,320 --> 01:01:16,559 good. And to hear a little bit more about Braden Yeager, let's hear 865 01:01:16,639 --> 01:01:22,719 from our FHL scout. Yes, indeed, Victor, and our scout today 866 01:01:22,920 --> 01:01:30,400 is Tony good old Tony Montreal Man. In his different iterations of Fantasy play, 867 01:01:30,719 --> 01:01:35,360 he says that Braden Yeager has good skating and is always around the puck, 868 01:01:35,599 --> 01:01:39,199 passing and handling good as well. Usually shoots first and ask questions later. 869 01:01:40,039 --> 01:01:44,639 In terms of that shooting, a borderline elite shot, ready to shoot 870 01:01:44,679 --> 01:01:47,119 all the time from the top of the face off dots down to the goal 871 01:01:47,239 --> 01:01:52,880 line. He is deadly IQ, he says. Braden Yeager seems to have 872 01:01:52,880 --> 01:01:57,639 a great IQ able to get a shot, offensive anticipation top notch. Didn't 873 01:01:57,639 --> 01:02:00,880 see a whole lot of defense out of him in his looks at Yeager, 874 01:02:00,119 --> 01:02:04,960 but he did see some shorthanded time and the panic meter seems to be zero 875 01:02:05,559 --> 01:02:08,480 for checking. Another thing that Tony didn't observe. A whole lot of needs 876 01:02:08,480 --> 01:02:15,199 to be more aggressive to be successful at the NHL level for defense. Also 877 01:02:15,320 --> 01:02:19,280 didn't see a whole lot of defense he was playing. Maybe should say that 878 01:02:19,360 --> 01:02:22,480 Tony saw him more modern day defense where you use your stick to block shots. 879 01:02:22,920 --> 01:02:27,920 The asset Tony rinked out his best was the play in the offensive zone. 880 01:02:28,079 --> 01:02:30,320 High IQ, borderline elite shot. That offensive stuff you're talking about, 881 01:02:30,400 --> 01:02:37,280 Victor, and the biggest concern lack of defense and aggressiveness in the ozone the 882 01:02:37,320 --> 01:02:40,280 top tier potential. What's the top outcome we could get out of mister Yeager? 883 01:02:40,360 --> 01:02:45,559 Tier one offense is this thing borderline elite shots, some ability to get 884 01:02:45,559 --> 01:02:49,079 them through, although that's dependent on teammates getting him the puck, lots of 885 01:02:49,119 --> 01:02:53,960 power play time. The median outcome for him doesn't get more aggressive and play 886 01:02:54,159 --> 01:02:58,360 defense a little bit better. He's probably more of a Tier three power play 887 01:02:58,400 --> 01:03:04,000 type with limited third line minutes. Stylistic comparable he would say, Tony would 888 01:03:04,039 --> 01:03:07,079 say a better skating, A way better skating and hopefully more consistent scoring. 889 01:03:07,400 --> 01:03:14,960 Tomash Tatar. In terms of the p NHL E equivalency model from our NHL 890 01:03:15,119 --> 01:03:20,920 rank King Mason Black, he's my king. He sees Braden Yeager's numbers taking 891 01:03:21,000 --> 01:03:25,559 him between first line and second line potential, his top similarity score Dustin Brown, 892 01:03:25,679 --> 01:03:29,639 that'd be a nice career, and second and third Joe Polano and Matt 893 01:03:29,679 --> 01:03:34,159 Beniers. These things I always this is cool stuff, all right. Braden 894 01:03:34,239 --> 01:03:39,480 Yeager is up in the competition against uber US national development team score Gay Pero, 895 01:03:40,199 --> 01:03:45,159 and in terms of Yeager versus Pero, who were both drafted this year, 896 01:03:45,599 --> 01:03:50,920 Yeager nine spots ahead of Pero. Pero comes out away ahead. In 897 01:03:51,039 --> 01:03:55,039 terms of the public results. People seemed to like all them points that he 898 01:03:55,159 --> 01:04:00,639 was scoring with the national team, and so it was seventy five to twenty 899 01:04:00,639 --> 01:04:04,920 five in terms of proportion. Victor, Is it that lopsided Paro over Yeager? 900 01:04:06,960 --> 01:04:11,880 I think so, but that's not to say that Yeager isn't a good 901 01:04:11,920 --> 01:04:15,960 prospect because he is. He's just the best prospect on a really bad pool. 902 01:04:15,800 --> 01:04:19,119 But yeah, I like Yeager. I think he certainly has some pretty 903 01:04:19,119 --> 01:04:25,559 decent potential. But gay Pero the records he broke at the USNTD B I 904 01:04:25,559 --> 01:04:28,800 think of all the best fours that have come through the USNTDP, like your 905 01:04:28,800 --> 01:04:32,360 Matthews and your Killers and Jack Hughes, gay pro outdid them all, and 906 01:04:32,440 --> 01:04:35,360 people can say, and I certainly have to some extent that I thought he 907 01:04:35,400 --> 01:04:40,400 was a bit of a passenger. But he's still an excellent player who knows 908 01:04:40,440 --> 01:04:42,920 how to score and who knows how to get to the right places. He 909 01:04:43,000 --> 01:04:45,400 has Fittspeed's kind of a problem, but he's just such a smart player and 910 01:04:45,440 --> 01:04:49,239 the way he creates and adapts two of the players around him and generates offense. 911 01:04:50,079 --> 01:04:54,440 The biggest concern for me for Paro is that he's in the Ranger system, 912 01:04:54,480 --> 01:04:58,119 who has pretty much shown that they are terrible at developing prospects, and 913 01:04:58,239 --> 01:05:00,400 gay pro needs a lot of development. He needs time, he needs certain 914 01:05:00,400 --> 01:05:03,079 things to work on. It's good that he's going in the college route. 915 01:05:03,079 --> 01:05:05,599 It's bad that he's going with his buddies, although he may not play with 916 01:05:05,679 --> 01:05:09,480 him the whole time, but he really needs to round out his game. 917 01:05:10,039 --> 01:05:14,280 But I think if Perro does, and you hit the ninetieth percentile outcome or 918 01:05:14,320 --> 01:05:16,639 even the eightieth or seventieth percentile outcome, I think gay Pro is going to 919 01:05:16,719 --> 01:05:20,440 have a much better NHL career than Braden Yeager. So yeah, I would 920 01:05:20,480 --> 01:05:25,280 smash that button for gay Pro as well. I think he has much higher 921 01:05:25,320 --> 01:05:29,679 upside. The hockey prospecting has him more than double the star potential of Braden 922 01:05:29,719 --> 01:05:33,199 Jager at fifty three percent to nineteen, and the NHL or probability is also 923 01:05:33,280 --> 01:05:38,719 higher. If you look at some of the comparables for Braden Jager, there's 924 01:05:38,760 --> 01:05:41,840 some pretty good ones. A lot of them are Brandon Saw and Matthew Perro 925 01:05:42,039 --> 01:05:45,960 types, and then of course there's a token Brady Kachuk that no one is 926 01:05:46,000 --> 01:05:50,840 really but he is a star potential with the lower who ended up who started 927 01:05:50,880 --> 01:05:57,039 with a much lower potential and ended up excelling and succeeding in all of those 928 01:05:57,079 --> 01:06:01,199 areas. So Yeager probably a lot less likely to be a star than Prow 929 01:06:01,239 --> 01:06:04,400 and some of these other guys. The top down hockey model a little more 930 01:06:04,400 --> 01:06:08,519 pessimistic on him, but eight percent chance of being a star, thirty four 931 01:06:08,519 --> 01:06:11,960 percent chance of being in an each other. Not horrible, but definitely a 932 01:06:12,000 --> 01:06:15,239 little bit downballot for Braden Aager. Yeah, I think he's still still good. 933 01:06:15,360 --> 01:06:18,760 He's going to be their prize prospect for a while, just like Samuel 934 01:06:18,800 --> 01:06:21,840 Poulan was for so many years, and then it looks like he's going to 935 01:06:21,920 --> 01:06:27,119 be a bust. So we'll see about Yeager. I hope he doesn't end 936 01:06:27,199 --> 01:06:29,679 up that way, but at this point, who knows. It can go 937 01:06:29,719 --> 01:06:31,199 a lot of different ways. We'll have to wait and see how he develops. 938 01:06:33,920 --> 01:06:39,079 That was number one victor. Now we're going to talk about your other 939 01:06:39,119 --> 01:06:42,960 guy. Who is your keep your eye on prospect? Who is it? 940 01:06:44,440 --> 01:06:47,320 Yeah, so the only other one we're talking about in this system basically is 941 01:06:47,320 --> 01:06:51,280 Owen Pickering. Pick Pickering, That's what I always say. Right now, 942 01:06:51,280 --> 01:06:56,320 we'll see twenty twenty two first round pick, twenty first overall, six four 943 01:06:56,480 --> 01:07:01,280 one hundred and eighty five pound left handed d really large frame and needed to 944 01:07:01,320 --> 01:07:04,599 grow into that and has to some extent. Nine goals thirty six assists in 945 01:07:04,679 --> 01:07:09,920 sixty one games for Swift current of the WHL. He also played eight games 946 01:07:09,960 --> 01:07:13,320 for the Wilkes Barre Scrand Penguins, which was nice. Didn't have any points, 947 01:07:13,320 --> 01:07:15,079 but it was nice to see him get a little bit of a look 948 01:07:15,119 --> 01:07:18,719 there in the HL after the WHL season. But he will be back in 949 01:07:18,760 --> 01:07:24,039 the in the WHL sorry this upcoming season. He's a January twenty seven birthdays, 950 01:07:24,079 --> 01:07:28,639 so not eligible for the full AHL season this upcoming year. Looking at 951 01:07:28,639 --> 01:07:31,800 the tracking data, Pickering looks really great pretty much across the board. A 952 01:07:31,840 --> 01:07:38,599 little bit lower on defensive coursie against, but good at denying entries and retrievals. 953 01:07:39,239 --> 01:07:45,719 Pickering's expected goals per sixty is one of the tops in the entire CHL 954 01:07:45,800 --> 01:07:48,599 for a defenseman. That's pretty incredible. You don't usually see defenseman get quite 955 01:07:48,599 --> 01:07:53,079 that high, so that was that's really great to see, and a lot 956 01:07:53,079 --> 01:07:56,559 of his other metrics are really good. Some of his transition play is a 957 01:07:56,679 --> 01:08:01,239 really good advantages created expected primary points game score all that looks pretty fantastic for 958 01:08:01,280 --> 01:08:05,000 Pickering. So looks like he's going to be able to translate his game to 959 01:08:05,079 --> 01:08:08,480 the next level, which is nice to see. I don't know how many 960 01:08:08,480 --> 01:08:11,440 points he's going to score. He starting his cooring a LON jr. So 961 01:08:11,639 --> 01:08:14,320 let's have to see if that can transfer to the HL. But let's hear 962 01:08:14,360 --> 01:08:18,319 a little bit more about Owen pickering from our FHL scout, Jesse. Our 963 01:08:18,399 --> 01:08:23,159 FHL scout in this case is Punit, and he has the following to say 964 01:08:23,159 --> 01:08:28,960 about pickering In terms of skating good east west skater with strong forward acceleration and 965 01:08:29,159 --> 01:08:32,399 long strides. Puck handling average to good. When in the defensive zone, 966 01:08:32,439 --> 01:08:38,800 he tends to make short crisp passes to the open man or out rather than 967 01:08:38,880 --> 01:08:42,439 long stretch passes. He's shown that he's able to carry the puck out of 968 01:08:42,439 --> 01:08:45,479 the defensive zone, but typically defers to the short pass. The talent is 969 01:08:45,520 --> 01:08:50,479 there, the confidence may so far be lacking the shot. A powerful slap 970 01:08:50,520 --> 01:08:55,960 shot and wrist shot, has no hesitation in shooting, comfortable in skating up 971 01:08:56,000 --> 01:09:01,119 closer to get a more accurate shot when the opportunity arises. IQ he uses 972 01:09:01,159 --> 01:09:05,560 his stick and size to prevent zone entries. However, he does easily get 973 01:09:05,600 --> 01:09:11,319 caught in scenarios where he's unable to focus on multiple attackers, which may give 974 01:09:11,399 --> 01:09:15,720 up puck possession. At times defense the defensive skills need improvement. He needs 975 01:09:15,760 --> 01:09:19,560 to be more aggressive when the puck carrier enters the zone. He allows too 976 01:09:19,640 --> 01:09:24,680 much time and space for the opposition, which gives them an opportunity to plan 977 01:09:24,760 --> 01:09:28,600 ahead when entering the zone. Seems to rely on his size and reach rather 978 01:09:28,640 --> 01:09:34,279 than closing the gap. The best asset good forward skating and speed from a 979 01:09:34,359 --> 01:09:41,680 stationary position. Good to average forward skating and lateral movement when positioned on blueline 980 01:09:41,800 --> 01:09:46,279 making shots or keeping the puck in opposing team zone long stick difficult for opposing 981 01:09:46,319 --> 01:09:49,800 players to gauge how much space they have. Six four height is an advantage, 982 01:09:50,079 --> 01:09:56,479 biggest concern plus the backward skating it needs improvement. Crossover still look unrefined. 983 01:09:56,560 --> 01:09:59,760 He may still be getting used to his overall frame, which may be 984 01:09:59,840 --> 01:10:03,079 a contributor to his skating development. His skill level is trying to catch up 985 01:10:03,079 --> 01:10:06,399 with his body development. He also needs to put on a little more weight 986 01:10:06,399 --> 01:10:09,960 to match his height. While in front of the net. He tends to 987 01:10:09,960 --> 01:10:14,600 get pushed around when jockeying for position. So what's the top tier outcome here? 988 01:10:14,720 --> 01:10:16,840 For pickering? Tier two? If he can increase his shot rate and 989 01:10:16,880 --> 01:10:20,439 add more size to his frame as a defenseman. He's not shy when it 990 01:10:20,439 --> 01:10:24,600 comes to taking the shot, but could definitely shoot a little more. Best 991 01:10:24,640 --> 01:10:30,399 case is that top four defenseman most likely tier the median outcome top tier three 992 01:10:30,479 --> 01:10:35,640 based on his entry into the NHL. Tier three is widely regarded as a 993 01:10:35,640 --> 01:10:41,199 shutdown defender an effective playmaker. Depending on what's in front of him at Pittsburgh, 994 01:10:41,199 --> 01:10:45,119 he may have a solid chance to pushing his way up higher. Stylistic 995 01:10:45,159 --> 01:10:48,720 comparable from a Penn's player, Comparable maybe similar to a Brian Dumlin, but 996 01:10:48,760 --> 01:10:54,479 with higher upside summary. Pickering looks good for the most part, but doesn't 997 01:10:54,479 --> 01:10:57,880 look as confident on the ice as he did when he played on the Broncos. 998 01:10:57,960 --> 01:11:00,920 Could be a new system, new team, is just getting used to 999 01:11:00,960 --> 01:11:05,640 everything being different. Our NHL rank King Mason Black has him pulling himself up 1000 01:11:05,640 --> 01:11:10,960 over the second line potential this year. His number one cop Kale Flurry and 1001 01:11:11,000 --> 01:11:15,800 then Rasmus Rista Lyinen and Jared's Virgin and Owen Pickerin is going to be compared 1002 01:11:16,039 --> 01:11:21,560 in the poll today to Shamus Casey, one of the big the big defenseman 1003 01:11:21,600 --> 01:11:26,920 of that draft, but one actually who went a full round after pickering in 1004 01:11:27,000 --> 01:11:31,000 it. So the poll out there, the NHL ranking poll where the public 1005 01:11:31,039 --> 01:11:38,079 had devoted it took Shamus Casey pretty decisively, fifty eight to forty two. 1006 01:11:38,439 --> 01:11:44,800 Victor. Is that what you would do with Pickering versus Casey? Oh? 1007 01:11:44,840 --> 01:11:47,359 I said pick pickering, but I'm not sure about that. It's interesting. 1008 01:11:47,399 --> 01:11:53,119 So I didn't realize this, but someone mentioned this on Twitter and I looked 1009 01:11:53,159 --> 01:11:57,560 it up, and it turns out that Shamus Casey, a defenseman has been 1010 01:11:57,640 --> 01:12:00,520 playing, was playing some center and the NC Double A at the University of 1011 01:12:00,560 --> 01:12:04,800 Michigan, which is interesting. And I'm not really sure if that's a long 1012 01:12:04,880 --> 01:12:09,960 term plan or just because they had too many defenseman what But if he has 1013 01:12:10,000 --> 01:12:14,079 the potential to switch to being a center, I'm not really sure if that's 1014 01:12:14,159 --> 01:12:17,239 good for him. But it is just interesting to notice he was really good 1015 01:12:17,439 --> 01:12:20,920 and maybe that explains some of his increased point potential in the NC Double A 1016 01:12:20,960 --> 01:12:26,880 if you're playing forward. He had twenty nine points in thirty seven games for 1017 01:12:26,920 --> 01:12:30,399 a sixty seven p NHL E which is pretty nice. But yeah, again, 1018 01:12:30,439 --> 01:12:32,039 if you're doing that with some for admnutes, I didn't I couldn't find 1019 01:12:32,079 --> 01:12:36,039 out exactly how many minutes he played where, but it is interesting to see. 1020 01:12:36,039 --> 01:12:40,760 I'm not sure how the Devils feel about that either, probably drafted as 1021 01:12:40,760 --> 01:12:44,479 a defenseman and wanted him to stay there. But Casey did increase his star 1022 01:12:44,600 --> 01:12:47,239 potential up to twenty one percent after fifteen in his draft season, so it 1023 01:12:47,319 --> 01:12:50,920 seems I think I'd rather go with Casey. So I think I'll go with 1024 01:12:50,960 --> 01:12:56,960 the listeners here or the poll voters. But I do think that it's a 1025 01:12:57,000 --> 01:13:00,279 little disappointing the system that Casey is in. Right's got so many people ahead 1026 01:13:00,319 --> 01:13:06,079 of him. We've obviously you've got Hamilton there, and you have Luke Hughes, 1027 01:13:06,279 --> 01:13:12,000 and you have Simonnemas there. So I don't think that Casey really factors 1028 01:13:12,039 --> 01:13:15,960 in in terms of getting any powerplay time there for a very long time. 1029 01:13:15,079 --> 01:13:18,640 And from that perspective, you might want to take pickering because he's going to 1030 01:13:18,720 --> 01:13:23,319 be one of the few high end prospects that they're going to have. Of 1031 01:13:23,319 --> 01:13:26,159 course, by the time he gets there, I think Pittsburgh might be in 1032 01:13:26,199 --> 01:13:30,039 a full rebuild, so it might not be terribly exciting. So I think 1033 01:13:30,039 --> 01:13:32,920 you do have to keep into it, keep it all into account a little 1034 01:13:32,920 --> 01:13:35,000 bit. But either one of these guys might be traded. In fact, 1035 01:13:35,039 --> 01:13:39,760 I think they're both candidates to be traded because of the team situation, so 1036 01:13:40,279 --> 01:13:42,880 in that sense, they might both be interesting. But I would take Casey. 1037 01:13:43,479 --> 01:13:45,880 Pickering, for his part, has just an eight percent chance of being 1038 01:13:45,880 --> 01:13:48,960 a star, and he kept that steady a year to year, so it'll 1039 01:13:48,960 --> 01:13:53,960 be interesting to see if he is able to increase that. His NHLA probability 1040 01:13:54,000 --> 01:13:56,920 went up but his star potential stayed the same. In terms of some other 1041 01:13:56,920 --> 01:14:00,000 guys he looks like in the Hockey Prospecting model, and he looks like George 1042 01:14:00,000 --> 01:14:01,960 and Spence, who we don't really know what he's going to be yet, 1043 01:14:02,000 --> 01:14:05,039 And another one he looks like is Kevin Shattenkirk, who is certainly a star, 1044 01:14:05,800 --> 01:14:09,920 had some struggles with two way play, but had a lot of power 1045 01:14:09,920 --> 01:14:14,199 play time. I'm not sure that I necessarily see that so much from Pickering, 1046 01:14:14,279 --> 01:14:18,640 but he could step into that role if needed, so yeah, a 1047 01:14:18,680 --> 01:14:24,600 little bit of a lower upside. The Jay Fresh card also looks pretty pessimistic 1048 01:14:24,600 --> 01:14:27,760 on Pickering, just two percent chance of being a star and sixteen percent chance 1049 01:14:27,800 --> 01:14:30,520 of being an NHL or so a little bit more disappointing overall, this whole 1050 01:14:30,560 --> 01:14:34,560 system pretty disappointing, sad actually, And we were going to talk about the 1051 01:14:34,560 --> 01:14:38,640 third guy, but I was pointed out to us that he's playing with Philip 1052 01:14:38,680 --> 01:14:42,760 Plander's playing overseas, and I didn't really see anyone interesting to talk about. 1053 01:14:42,840 --> 01:14:45,479 So rather than do that, we'll just mention these two. And usually we'd 1054 01:14:45,479 --> 01:14:48,039 say there's a lot more guys to talk about, but there really aren't. 1055 01:14:48,119 --> 01:14:50,880 But I will still try to make my way through a top ten list of 1056 01:14:50,920 --> 01:14:56,119 the Pittsburgh Penguin prospects. That is going to be a challenge, Jesse, 1057 01:14:56,319 --> 01:14:59,399 but that's going to happen. And if you're interested in doing some scouting with 1058 01:14:59,479 --> 01:15:01,920 us, you can give me a damn on Twitter or Discord or email us. 1059 01:15:02,960 --> 01:15:06,079 Yeah, if you run out of prospects on that show, Victor, 1060 01:15:06,279 --> 01:15:13,520 just start ranking something else. Top ten chewing Gums, Top ten television shows 1061 01:15:13,680 --> 01:15:15,640 of nineteen ninety five. Who whatever you want to do if you're run out 1062 01:15:15,680 --> 01:15:18,760 of time, I don't mind that. I'm sure the patrons in one either. 1063 01:15:19,640 --> 01:15:34,199 The voice you hear after this music will be me quoting up, finishing 1064 01:15:34,279 --> 01:15:36,359 up in just a minute bit. A couple of things to remind you of 1065 01:15:36,479 --> 01:15:40,640 first of all, our shows brought to you by Fantracks. Fantracks dot com 1066 01:15:40,680 --> 01:15:45,119 best place to play fantasy sports. You can do all kinds of different customized 1067 01:15:45,119 --> 01:15:48,039 scoring, three way trades, real er auction salaries, deep minor players, 1068 01:15:48,079 --> 01:15:54,079 pools, etc. Fantrack's HQ has lots of fantasy content as well. There's 1069 01:15:54,079 --> 01:15:57,680 a whole bunch of articles coming up fantasy hockey. Those those folks are going 1070 01:15:57,760 --> 01:16:00,319 nuts over there. They're writing all kinds of stuff, plus articles on all 1071 01:16:00,359 --> 01:16:04,920 the other fantasy sports. There are many podcasts you can listen to on other 1072 01:16:04,960 --> 01:16:10,840 sports, including the Flag, Fantasy football you can listen to. You can 1073 01:16:10,880 --> 01:16:14,800 listen to a couple of baseball podcasts. There's all kinds of stuff there for 1074 01:16:14,880 --> 01:16:17,640 you. We're also brought to you by Dabber Hockey Dabber Prospects. We're on 1075 01:16:17,680 --> 01:16:21,680 their network. Victor covers the Red Wings, but he's also an editor for 1076 01:16:21,880 --> 01:16:27,680 Dabber Prospects and daber Prospects Report is a podcast at Victor and our friend Peter 1077 01:16:27,720 --> 01:16:31,880 Harlin host that has to do with hockey prospects, as one might think, 1078 01:16:31,960 --> 01:16:36,079 So listen to that if you're into a little more prospect Talk, and you 1079 01:16:36,159 --> 01:16:40,640 probably are. If you're here, you can follow me as well. I 1080 01:16:40,720 --> 01:16:45,600 have Dynasty Sports Life as another podcast that I do this week. I think 1081 01:16:45,600 --> 01:16:48,239 there's going to be a little bit of a mail bag coming on Tuesday, 1082 01:16:48,399 --> 01:16:53,760 so listen to that. I talk about all four Dynasty Sports and sometimes about 1083 01:16:53,800 --> 01:16:58,119 more than one at the same time. Follow on Twitter at fan Hockey Life 1084 01:16:58,199 --> 01:17:00,920 is me at Victor Nuno twelve I s t O R n U n O 1085 01:17:01,119 --> 01:17:06,439 one two is Victor. Subscribe, rate and review five stars anywhere, Apple 1086 01:17:06,479 --> 01:17:11,399 Podcasts, Spotify, wherever you get this podcast. Thank you for listening to 1087 01:17:11,439 --> 01:17:15,600 the show on the Pittsburgh Penguins and until next time, keep living that fantasy 1088 01:17:15,640 --> 01:17:15,600 hockey light bu