WEBVTT

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Howdy and welcome to the Three two
Outcomes podcast presented by Baseball Perspectives. I'm

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your host, Ian Leftwitz, and
joining me as always from suburban Michigan,

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it is Ben Murphy. Ben,
how are you doing. I'm doing well.

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Ian. It's good to hear from
you. Thank you, you too.

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Um it is baseball season. Do
you get a baseball fever? I've

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had a couple of fevers so far
in the last month, but none of

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them were related to baseball. Hey
fever? Oh no, okay, muskrat

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love. Well, we'll work on
that until then. Joining us from our

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nation's capital as always is Jared Wise. Jared, how are you doing?

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Is muskrat love of fever? I
assumed that it was like a scratch of

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some stort. I never feel like
maybe I should check this like genius dot

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com and see if they annotated the
lyrics with some behind the scenes one would

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assume. I guess the fever that
I had doesn't have a name except for

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fever. When you have a little
kid, you just get sick a lot.

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So I've only had a fever twice
in twenty nineteen, So doing great.

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That's good. Yeah, Jared,
how is your baseball fever. Baseball

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started only for some of the teams. Jared, No, it's been it's

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yeah, it's really high, super
high. Do you think we did not

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record last week because the Orioles were
in first place and I ran out of

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material? I'm recently certain. Yes, I was waiting for the call and

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you guys just to show no interest
in I assumed. Yeah, there's a

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room on those bandwagon still if you
guys want to Japan. Yeah. Yeah,

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I could think of a couple of
players who like thrown out of a

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bad wagon. We'll get to that
though. Uh certainly saved groom. Um

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so yeah, any any impressions of
of the first week as as a baseball

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fan from your end, I'm glad
it's back. Glad it's back. Yeah,

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uh, right in a way.
And and that first so that you

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you did have the first series against
the Yankees as as uh an o glorious.

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Oh that was so good. Probably
isn't there? Yeah, yeah,

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feeling pretty confident that's going to be
the highlight of twenty nineteen. But it

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was, it was worth it.
Uh. Yeah, I've been watching I've

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been watching a lot of baseball.
I've been watched Um, I know shocker.

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UM. So far I've seen UM, I've seen about uh seven right

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games, and UH, I have
some thoughts we'll get We'll get to that

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in a second, because I have
a couple of overall impressions. But first

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I wanted to obviously lead off by
talking about UM. The top. The

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number one topic that I think,
UM, I think audiences love more than

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anything is us talking about our own
fantasy teams. So we are going to

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get to that before we start.
UM. Mailback, Captain, I have

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a question for you. Yes,
did you write into scoresheet a Baseball perspectives

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dot com to ask your question?
No? I didn't. Did anyone else

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know? That's bad news. We'll
answer questions no matter how silly. Probably

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probably better chance if they are sillier. Gotta be honest. So, uh

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baseball or not, we are.
We are looking for feedback and love.

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It's the only thing gives us validation. Please scoresheet at Baseball Perspectives dot com

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feel free to send us a question. Happy to talk on or off air.

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UM. So before we UM,
before we dive into the season.

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So we we came up with a
strategy, let's say, UM not entirely

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for content development for this podcast,
but not not for content development for this

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podcast before the season, Um,
where we would do something different. Um,

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do you want to do do you
want to introduce the concept? Um?

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Yes, we So we run a
bunch of teams together, and we

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decided that we are going to each
separately own a team, or Ben and

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I at least will each separately own
slash run a team. Yeah. I

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think in our collective names that we
will take control. I guess, I

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don't know. This is our opportunity
to be very explicit about the fact that

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Ian does everything, like literally everything
for all these teams. And that's why

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you agreed, so that realize and
appreciate just how much he does reach one

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of the teams. Yeah, at
least. And I think part of my

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motivation was because I would like to
have an opportunity to be a little bit

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more connected to baseball and I think
do something to alleviate a little bit of

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my guilt that Ian does everything for
us. I think it's also a little

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bit exciting just to have a little
bit more flexibility. So one of the

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things that we've always done for all
the teams that we've run together is like

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check with each other on stuff,
and that includes you know, any trade

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offers and things like that. And
I think sometimes, well almost all the

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time, that leads to like better
decisions for us because we balance each other

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well and we have a variety of
perspectives on things. But sometimes we're a

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little bit too thoughtful or at least
like it takes us a while to get

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back to people when we're tossing around
the relative merits of different options. And

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I think, you know the other
part of this is, you know,

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Jared and I each have one team, They're still a handful of other teams

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where Ian's doing literally everything and it's
sort of like a little sandbox for a

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yard tonight to try to make a
sandcastle or keep the neighborhood cat from peeing

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in it. So yeah, and
I would not say I do literally everything.

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Like any decision that we make that
I think would be fun to discuss,

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we discuss in just about every league. Like like I said in the

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past, I think we enjoy running
teams together because it gives us a chance

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to talk to one another about a
thing. But you know, this is

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our We just wanted to change things
up a little bit, and you know,

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I think give you all, I
think a little bit more hands on

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work with at least some teams.
So we have chosen a couple of teams

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in leagues that we feel are closest
to one year leagues. Actually that I'm

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thinking about it, yep. It
mitigates our opportunity to really running into the

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ground from Yes, well they're also
they were also our lower performing teams at

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the time that we made the decision, UM, which you know, so

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I I think for each of these
leagues we want to go into it and

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UM check in throughout the season on
these leagues and just see, you know,

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you can tell you can tell us
as the season goes on, what

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your strategies are, UM, how
you're planning to kind of attack what you

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see is the problems of the team, or UM build upon successes. UM.

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But let's let's get into specifics.
And I think this is the point

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at which anyone listening can follow along
by either I think clicking perhaps on a

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link that we will provide in the
notes to the leagues, or UM you

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can probably just google it as well. So one of our teams is in

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the league bl kings UM. And
then we will start with you, because

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this is your team. We actually
have talked about this team on the draft

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on this podcast before. Yeah,
during the draft, so we expansion draft

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of this team. Uh. And
for for anyone who wasn't listening, maybe

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recap that draft process and our decision
that went into it. Mike Trap,

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Mike Trout, Mike Troup. Uh. We went into a dispersal draft so

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that we could get Mike Trout,
and we did that, and then we

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renamed the team to three true trout
comes and we haven't looked back day.

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In the process of doing that,
we gave up a bunch of draft picks

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this year, so we're sort of
punting this year. UM. So the

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strategy is pretty straightforward Mike Trout and
twenty twenty. So we traded down a

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bunch of times in the spring draft. We drafted young guys or guys for

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upside. Well, we ian drafted
young guys guys for upside, guys that

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are hurt this year but might be
coming back and be useful next year.

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UM. We've tried to pursue trade
targets that fit similar criteria and it's perfect

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for me because I don't really have
to do anything. Um. We were

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joking before we started that like Ian
still went in and set up our lineup

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cards for US. Jared and I
both um and so I was looking at

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the lineup card that Ian set up. An Ian, I have to give

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you a quick shout out. Everything
is the same versus lefties and righties,

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except for Conforto and or US swap
between the five and six spots in the

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lineup like what like they both bat
against both handedness, but apparently Confortos at

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a little bit better against righties.
Um, that's not going to this team.

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This team is gonna lose so many
games, so many games. We

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have so far gone zero and nine
and we have an eight twenty five er.

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This is a team with Mike Trout
on. With Mike Trout on it,

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we are hitting two twenty two,
three, eighteen, three fifty six.

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So yeah, it's bad. It's
a bad team. Uh, and

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we hope it's less bad next year
when we have a full compliment of draft

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picks and you know, maybe healthy
Lance mc colors or something like that.

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Right. So, UM, just
to be like a little more specific about

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what's happened to the team since the
expansion draft, Um, we have we've

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taken a team that I would say
did not just have Mike Trout, to

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be clear. So we took Mike
Trout, we got Gia Carlos Stanton back.

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I think we uh we redrafted Adam
Eaton. Was that true? Um,

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Michael, I think Eaton came from
the other team, but we picked

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him up in the dispersonal Okay.
Um, so we have Wander Franco,

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who I actually saw last week,
which is very exciting. I know I'll

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get to that later. Um,
Sander Brogards during the draft too, I

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should have mentioned that. Yeah,
so we took a couple of players and

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then um turn them into Xander Brogarts. Right, I'm trying to pull up

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that trade as well. So I
think if we're talking about that, so

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our strategy behind getting Xander Brogarts,
I think pretty clear for rebuilding team.

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Um. You know, positional needs
are not important, um, and we're

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just trying to get I think,
literally the best players we can, right

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and if we move, Um,
I have the trade up. If you

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want me to read it, Yeah, go for it. Joe must Grove,

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Jake Lamb Adam Eaton around twelve pick
and around nineteen pick for Xander Bogarts.

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Yeah. So which definitely like losing
Joe Musgrove, a fan favorite of

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this fan that definitely hurt. You
know. I think Adam Eaton I still

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liked Jake Lamb, I think was
a player we drafted. Yeah, we

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had drafted him really early. I
think our first draft pick in the pre

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it's like a soft ten, and
we drafted him in like the eighth round

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or something like that. Yeah.
I think we did a very good job

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of pressing the aboard button at exactly
the right time on Jake Lamb. But

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you know, I think we see
Xander Bogarts as a first round talent.

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We were willing to crush our team
even more in order to go for it.

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But yeah, that leads us with
one pick, sure, which is

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probably not a great sign for our
success this year. Uh. And then

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we drafted a couple of players like
Lensmo Collars that you said, like Seanmanaiah,

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who I think are potentially coming back
mid season. Well, we also

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traded for d D. Glorious.
Oh, we did trade for Ddy Gregorius,

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right, So uh, you know, I think this is probably going

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to become clear because we did trade
for d D. Gregories before Xander Brogart.

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But now that we have both.
I think there's a very strong chance

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we will nurse D. D.
Gregorious back to health and then looked to

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flip him almost immediately, right,
Yeah, as soon as we had a

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local maximum for his value. I
think, yeah. Um. And you

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know, I I do feel like
this team is in pretty solid shape for

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UM fenty twenty, which is um. You know, I don't think we

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are. I don't think we want
to stay in and rebuild forever. I

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think we want to be competitive it
since next year. Yeah, I think

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we just sort of felt like missing
ten of the well ten draft picks off

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the top basically eleven through twenty one, made it so that it was basically

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impossible to compete this year anyway,
and it was very foolish to attempt to

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compete in the face of such long
odds. Much better to do everything we

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can for twenty twenty, when we'll
have that full complimented draft picks and hopefully

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even more talent. Right. And
you know, something that we've kind of

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said often on this podcast, both
in the current incarnation in the past,

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drafting with a goal in mind is
a great way to you know, it's

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a great way to see it even
in competitive leagues, if you could just

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vary the time window off where other
people are, you know, I think

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you have something. I think you
have a better chance of success drafting.

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Mike Trout. Also, it definitely
helps accelerate your mic trout Mike Trout.

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Um, Yeah, what I'm really
excited to listen back to is how the

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sound balance manages to take care of
that. Yeahing quick anecdote. So we

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got a tip from front of the
pod Eric Moyer that like the volumes a

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little low, so I try to
boost the volume. And I was like

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listening to it to see how well
it went. And I've been sick basically

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NonStop, and my already nasily voice
is like super nasily now that I'm sick,

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and I will never listen to the
podcast over again. I'm sorry.

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So if you want me to try
to fix it, I can, but

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I'm not ever going to check to
see how well it went. Hopefully the

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volumes a little higher though. Um
we're working on Yeah. We don't want

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to be terrible. We just don't
want to have to work to not be

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terrible. I have made it to
the point where I could actually listen to

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the podcast again and not hate myself. It's been a challenge, it's been

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a real ride trying to do that. So thank you for going on that

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journey. But I did want to
I do want to point something out just

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because this is a This is a
useful feature that I think maybe not everyone

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has seen, but friends of the
Pod, Rob mccun if, for those

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of you who are Baseball Perspective subscribers
you may have you may be familiar with

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the Scorcy Draft Aid, which we
have highly recommended and the Scoresy Team Tracker,

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which we also highly recommend as great
Scorcy tools. This year, he

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has added a taken Players report on
the Draft Aid And I think this is

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just like an incredibly useful benchmark that
I've been looking at repeatedly throughout the season.

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What is that It's a very simple
concept. I mean there are a

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number of different um, there are
a number of different concepts, different panels

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on this report, including um,
you know, projections for all players on

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your team versus righties versus lefties.
That helps you build and set a lineup.

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There's the list of top prospects taken
the mock draft list as well,

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so you can see who has taken
whom. The section that I find the

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most valuable is league ss SIM totals, where you can measure at different keeper

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levels the amount of talent that's on
your roster for this year versus other teams.

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And so with Kings, you know, I think what I've been looking

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at is something that I should have
said about half hour ago. Kings is

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a soft, soft ten league,
so that means there you can keep up

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to ten players, but you do
not have to keep ten players, which

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means that the value of your top
keepers are really the most important things,

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the very top keepers, because you
can kind of fill in the rest later.

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So I've been looking at the top
five keepers where we are third in

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the league, top eight, we
are sixth in the league, and we

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were in there. We were in
the twenties of the twenty fourteen league before

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the draft, so before we the
expansion draft. So I've I think this

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has been a real win for us, the ninety nine keeper version. We

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are not in first place. We're
not a second place. No, no,

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no, I would keep going,
I would keep doing the happy birthday

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thing, but but we are dead
last on the twenty four teams. So

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but you know, I think that's
one of those ways where you can say,

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um, Okay, here is this
horrible, horrible team that is going

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to win I think like an extraordinarily
few amount of games, and yet there

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is a sleeping giant here there.
The top five keepers are about as strong

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as anyone in the league, and
there are a number of ways to get

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there. This way, you can
just kind of ballpark it with your eyes.

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So I think that's an interesting Uh, it's interesting. I think we're

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gonna use it if we get questions
about your league. It's something that I'm

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definitely going to look at to try
to quickly figure out where your team is

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in relation to others. I suggest
at everyone again, if you if you

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like having scores sheet tools, I
think having a scoresheet a baseball perspective,

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fantasy fantasy membership is really valuable.
Saying that, not just as a or

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not even as as all perspective play, just as a person. It's a

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really helpful for a score sheet in
particular. Um, I think that's enough

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about Kings. Let's pivot to Jared
uh So. Your league is bl d

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W. Murphy or Dwayne Murphy.
I guess in the car and severer times.

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This is a venerable league that has
been around for a very long time,

241
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and it is a soft eight league. We've talked about it on the

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podcast Off and on, so very
similar lineup. M Jared, Do you

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want to introduce the team to us? Um? Yes, by name?

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Sure, we'll start there by reputation, but I would say by major concept

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and if not, I'm happy to
take that part and magic. We want

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to win. We want to win, yeah, okay, yeah, I

247
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think that's fair. So we want
to win this year. So it's a

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little bit of a different situation.
Yeah. Well, I mean you already

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introduced it as mostly a one year
league, which is sort of kind of

250
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right, right, A soft date
league in many ways functions as a one

251
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year league. In a few key
ways it does not, and we'll go

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into that and how it affected our
strategy. But yeah, I think mostly

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we've been looking for immediate success.
Yeah, it's hard to play like this

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for three years down the line.
It's hard to do that. So yeah,

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So what do you see as a
kind of your goals for this team

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as the owner? Other than winning? Winning is the only goal that is

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okay, I needs life, that
is everything. Um, how will you

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how will you achieve that? Goal. I have to say, whatever I'm

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doing is working out really great because
we have the second best record in the

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league at the twenty four teams.
So I'm doing so many things right that

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why would I change anything? Reasonable? Reasonable answer? Thank you? Just

262
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the steady hand on the tails.
Yes, yeah, you don't have to

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do too much is the key in
fantasy baseball. I I feel like we

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have to spoil this that like ten
minutes before we were starting to record,

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Jared's like, which league is my
league? So good work, good work?

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All right? My plan for this
league is great? Is have you

267
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continue to all the work. We
just take credit for it explicitly. I

268
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think it's a brilliant plan. Everyone
should do it. M Yeah. So

269
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I think this is an interesting team, and I think it's a team that

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has a lot m really a lot
in common with some of the most difficult

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questions we get because it is it
is really a team where the choice is

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between going for it and rebuilding,
and it's kind of stuck in the middle

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a little bit. Yeah, you
know, I think we've had a strong

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core that has, um you know, helped us win some regular season record

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winning team a couple of years ago
and obviously, Like who cares about the

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playoffs? Right? Those are random
anyway, Like I don't bother looking that

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up. But yeah, we've won
a couple of regular season you know,

278
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most wins. But now now the
core itself is aging. So we have

279
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players like Buster Posey, you know, Andrew McCutchen, who are within a

280
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couple of years of being out of
probably out of let's say eight soft eight

281
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keeper status. I think Steven Strasburg
for instance, fits there as well,

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and we don't have those younger players
behind them. And yet, you know,

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I don't think when you hear a
team in twenty nineteen based around Buster

284
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Posey, and Andrew mccutcheen and Streeven
Strasburg, that you're thinking, well,

285
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that's going to win the league.
So you know it, we're kind of

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caught between two masters here, and
so it's it's going to be very interesting

287
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to see how we make it and
whether we can either guide this team to

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win or you know, if we
were build and how we were build in

289
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this league one that is exceedingly tough
to rebuild in. Um So I would

290
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say one of the things we did
during the draft, because this is a

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one year league, because this is
a twenty four team league. As with

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the other this is also a blum
We did concentrate a lot on up the

293
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middle talent. You know, we
drafted should we keep Travishaw? We may

294
00:25:25.839 --> 00:25:33.359
have kept Travisshaw, but we also
drafted Marcus semi and early. We drafted

295
00:25:33.759 --> 00:25:37.720
Chad Pinder early. We have Buster
Posey. We drafted Jeff McNeil relatively early.

296
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And I think it leaves us with
a very interesting team because it's it's

297
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a team that feels like ours because
basically it has nine players who are like

298
00:25:53.079 --> 00:26:02.720
roughly equivalent in offensive talent, so
we don't have like stars, but everybody

299
00:26:02.839 --> 00:26:10.839
is like, yeah, pretty good
hitter. I think our pitching rotation is

300
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theoretically a little more shaky, but
we may have We may have hit Drew

301
00:26:15.279 --> 00:26:21.319
Pomerands, who I was looking at, who kind of picked up velocity in

302
00:26:21.359 --> 00:26:23.839
the offseason, who I'm interested in. I think Trevor Richards has looked pretty

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00:26:23.880 --> 00:26:29.200
good early on. I'm hoping Tyler
Skaggs is a breakout. I'm hoping Mike

304
00:26:29.279 --> 00:26:32.839
Minor is a breakout. This doesn't
sound like any sort of Pennant winning team.

305
00:26:32.880 --> 00:26:34.640
I have to be honest, saying
the name is back. But you

306
00:26:34.680 --> 00:26:38.640
know, with a twenty four team
league, sometimes you have to recalibrate expectations

307
00:26:38.640 --> 00:26:45.640
a little bit. You just don't
have the same kind of talent base that

308
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you might in a ten team.
Al Right now, and I've got those

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00:26:51.240 --> 00:26:55.440
draft results up, it looks like
we did keep Shaw. We took McNeil

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in the ninth round, Skaggs in
the tenth, Richards in the thirteenth.

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00:27:00.640 --> 00:27:06.039
I'm not sure if there's another player
you wanted me to check. Yeah,

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00:27:06.079 --> 00:27:11.640
I think we took Wilmore Flora's relatively
early. Yeah, second base. Yeah,

313
00:27:11.680 --> 00:27:15.599
so again, like I you know, maybe Jeff McNeill will turn into

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00:27:15.759 --> 00:27:22.079
a keeper. Certainly he's looked very
good in the early going. And some

315
00:27:22.200 --> 00:27:25.960
of it was like looking at a
player like Jeff McNeil whose challenge is really

316
00:27:25.960 --> 00:27:30.559
finding playing time on the roster on
a very deep Mets roster and saying,

317
00:27:30.599 --> 00:27:36.000
Okay, you know, maybe the
thing that is de valuing him is that

318
00:27:36.200 --> 00:27:41.440
he doesn't have enough playing time and
his um and he may not be able

319
00:27:41.480 --> 00:27:48.720
to, you know, provide ninth
round value this year. But given a

320
00:27:48.839 --> 00:27:53.319
year, given an offseason, maybe
you'll be able to get that in a

321
00:27:53.359 --> 00:27:57.039
future year and so while still getting
value this year. I think we tried

322
00:27:57.079 --> 00:28:02.640
the same thing with fran Bille Reyes, who so far this season, very

323
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early, it's just not looked like
does not look like that it's going to

324
00:28:04.880 --> 00:28:08.039
be paying off super well for us. But again, you know, get

325
00:28:08.079 --> 00:28:12.720
a player in a crowded situation,
see if just the innate talent is going

326
00:28:12.759 --> 00:28:18.839
to help us in a year to
come, and then just pretty swing pretty

327
00:28:18.880 --> 00:28:22.000
wildly on some breakout picks. You
know, I think chat easy Chad Pender

328
00:28:22.000 --> 00:28:26.359
in this league. We have Jackie
Bradley junior in this league. Those are

329
00:28:26.359 --> 00:28:33.759
a couple of just straight stat cast
darlings, I guess of the moment and

330
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just to see if they kind of
break out. You know, we had

331
00:28:37.440 --> 00:28:44.400
our April We had our April draft. So far we have it a little

332
00:28:44.400 --> 00:28:48.359
earlier in this league than in others. In this league, we uh kind

333
00:28:48.400 --> 00:28:56.720
of looked to shore up the offense
a little bit. So we had Chris

334
00:28:56.720 --> 00:29:08.880
Owings batting as our platoon third baseman, which is probably not ideal to have

335
00:29:08.960 --> 00:29:15.400
Chris Owings in your starting lineup.
So we ended up drafting let me just

336
00:29:15.559 --> 00:29:22.400
check to make sure we drafted Oh
Mark Reynolds to replace him. Oh,

337
00:29:22.480 --> 00:29:26.640
we had Chris Owings as the DH, which was really not good. We

338
00:29:26.680 --> 00:29:29.880
still have Chris Owings in our lineup, at least now he's in the field,

339
00:29:30.319 --> 00:29:36.640
which is a little better. But
you know, as as I said,

340
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it's really hard to fix when you
make a mistake like that in the

341
00:29:41.559 --> 00:29:45.599
spring draft, because, especially in
a deep league like this, there is

342
00:29:48.359 --> 00:29:56.759
you know, there's nothing left in
the positional for position players after a spring

343
00:29:56.839 --> 00:30:02.400
draft in this league. Hopefully this
something that the twenty sixth man next year

344
00:30:03.000 --> 00:30:07.079
is going to fix a little bit
um because you know, just with short

345
00:30:07.119 --> 00:30:12.000
benches everywhere, there's very little you
can do to make up for that except

346
00:30:12.000 --> 00:30:18.440
in a trade. Um, Jared, who have you looked for so far

347
00:30:18.440 --> 00:30:23.400
as a trade candidate? Well,
first of at Chris Owings, the DH

348
00:30:23.480 --> 00:30:26.960
feels like an indictment of just our
general strategy and approach to this thing,

349
00:30:26.960 --> 00:30:30.240
where we say, well, anyone
can play first base, anybody can DH,

350
00:30:30.279 --> 00:30:34.920
and then you end up with Chris
Owens Owings. Yeah, it's not

351
00:30:36.000 --> 00:30:42.599
great, it's not a great job, but um uh yeah, well we'll

352
00:30:42.640 --> 00:30:48.200
see how this league goes. I
think the challenge for this team is really

353
00:30:48.200 --> 00:30:52.400
going to be able to is going
to be to find a direction to go

354
00:30:52.480 --> 00:30:56.960
with it. Um, you know, we drafted a couple of rookies.

355
00:30:57.200 --> 00:31:03.160
Actually this year we drafted and Hayes
Um and we drafted Adlie Rushman. In

356
00:31:03.200 --> 00:31:07.759
this league, a team like that
really plays to Jared's strengths of his decisive

357
00:31:07.839 --> 00:31:15.440
decision making this and his decidedly Yeah, I'm out of decision making words,

358
00:31:15.480 --> 00:31:19.279
but I made a harp. Yeah, you know, we probably need to

359
00:31:19.319 --> 00:31:25.359
help Jared with figuring out the direction
of this team. Then. Yeah,

360
00:31:25.599 --> 00:31:29.160
Um, I think there's a chance
that we may see the writing on the

361
00:31:29.200 --> 00:31:32.680
wall in a couple months and then
try to pack it in early. I

362
00:31:32.759 --> 00:31:37.200
was gonna say when I loved Surprise, it seemed Yeah, it seemed like

363
00:31:37.200 --> 00:31:38.720
the pitchers were over their heads a
little bit. I know you called out

364
00:31:38.759 --> 00:31:44.720
their early season performances. Do you
expect them to keep it up? And

365
00:31:44.720 --> 00:31:48.000
and if we aren't at the top
of the division in a month, do

366
00:31:48.000 --> 00:31:53.079
you think it's going to be because
of the hitting or the pitching. Um.

367
00:31:53.200 --> 00:31:56.240
I think it will probably be the
lack of top end talent, to

368
00:31:56.279 --> 00:32:00.920
be honest, on both sides of
the ball. UM, I think if

369
00:32:00.920 --> 00:32:04.039
we aren't at the top of in
the month, it'll probably be because of

370
00:32:04.039 --> 00:32:07.759
the pitching. But I am looking
more for the pitching to surprise and hold

371
00:32:07.839 --> 00:32:10.559
up. And I think if we
are at the top of the month,

372
00:32:12.000 --> 00:32:15.039
it will probably be because the pitchers
are continuing to play over their heads a

373
00:32:15.079 --> 00:32:22.960
little bit. Okay, interesting,
but you know, this might be a

374
00:32:22.960 --> 00:32:28.000
pivotal year for our team, because
maybe this is the year where we pulled

375
00:32:28.039 --> 00:32:31.160
the trigger and trade Buster Posey and
Andrew mc cutcheon for whatever we can get.

376
00:32:31.400 --> 00:32:36.559
Everything falls all the way apart,
yeah, or George Springer and just

377
00:32:36.680 --> 00:32:40.559
see you know again, we're just
not going to get value back because this

378
00:32:40.599 --> 00:32:44.680
is not the league where you get
enough value back to usually make those kinds

379
00:32:44.720 --> 00:32:49.839
of trades worth it. But are
we going to Are we going to try

380
00:32:49.880 --> 00:32:53.200
to do maybe one or two fallow
years as we did when we first joined

381
00:32:53.200 --> 00:33:00.079
this league. We're even in a
soft eight we were keeping I think we

382
00:33:00.160 --> 00:33:04.119
kept Buster Posey for instance, in
the soft age a couple of years before

383
00:33:04.160 --> 00:33:10.480
he made the majors and just like
took a loss on that position over and

384
00:33:10.519 --> 00:33:15.359
over again for the chance to pay
off, which is again, if you're

385
00:33:15.799 --> 00:33:19.759
keeping young stars, you know,
that's something that's a little more appealing than

386
00:33:19.839 --> 00:33:28.559
keeping, um, you know,
potential prospects. I would say, so,

387
00:33:28.559 --> 00:33:30.680
so it's interesting. We'll check back
in maybe in a month, see

388
00:33:30.680 --> 00:33:38.440
how see how well the decision making
process is gone. It'll be going great

389
00:33:42.440 --> 00:33:45.480
what we're landing on. But you
know, this is I think also a

390
00:33:45.480 --> 00:33:49.839
case where you can look at our
teams to give us advice. If you

391
00:33:49.839 --> 00:33:54.319
have thoughts on our team sentence scoresheet
at Baseball Perspectives dot com, we will

392
00:33:54.400 --> 00:34:02.400
read it and try not to feel
bad about ourselves. Already passed that point,

393
00:34:06.720 --> 00:34:08.679
I have no probably left in my
ability to play fantasy baseball. So,

394
00:34:12.440 --> 00:34:15.639
um, I'm okay with being bad
at this. Yeah, so um,

395
00:34:15.880 --> 00:34:20.079
speaking of being bad at things,
Um, Jared, you've been watching

396
00:34:20.119 --> 00:34:23.360
the Orioles for a week. I'm
good at watching the Orioles. Yeah,

397
00:34:23.639 --> 00:34:27.440
No, you're good at watching the
Orioles. I was going to pivot to

398
00:34:28.239 --> 00:34:31.159
talking about a player who's maybe had
a rough week, and it is perhaps

399
00:34:31.280 --> 00:34:35.199
the story of baseball a moment I
was gonna say, even I know about

400
00:34:35.199 --> 00:34:38.599
this, That's what I'm able to
deal it is, um, And I

401
00:34:38.760 --> 00:34:45.440
don't mean to pick on him,
and I will try to pivot off Um,

402
00:34:45.920 --> 00:34:50.239
but you know, hopefully hopefully by
saying this, I am actually just

403
00:34:50.360 --> 00:34:53.000
chasing him to get a hit tonight. I haven't checked the results yet,

404
00:34:53.760 --> 00:34:58.920
but no, Chris Davis is over
the season so far. Chris Davis was

405
00:34:58.960 --> 00:35:02.880
over most of last season, especially
the end of it. Has now set

406
00:35:02.920 --> 00:35:07.960
a record fourth most consecutive at bats
without a hit. Is that is that

407
00:35:07.039 --> 00:35:14.400
correct? Shared? Yes, okay, Um not played appearances, but at

408
00:35:14.440 --> 00:35:22.039
bats twenty nineteen Orioles a team of
five distinction. I think he's went away

409
00:35:22.320 --> 00:35:27.760
from played appearances to something like that. He's close. Um, what is

410
00:35:27.800 --> 00:35:31.519
the remaining contract? I'm sure it's
over at the end of the year.

411
00:35:32.519 --> 00:35:40.239
Yeah, yeah, I mean you
don't want to like cut bait before the

412
00:35:40.280 --> 00:35:44.119
season ends, but yeah, I
think you're coming pretty close to the end

413
00:35:44.159 --> 00:35:47.199
of the rotten right. Surely,
how could he possibly be under contract for

414
00:35:47.639 --> 00:35:52.320
any longer than the end of this
year? I mean that would be he

415
00:35:52.480 --> 00:35:54.519
was the worst playing basebaster. How
could it be being that doesn't make any

416
00:35:54.559 --> 00:35:59.880
sense, like it was another three
years and ninety two million dollars that would

417
00:35:59.880 --> 00:36:02.400
be. I was gonna say they
at least getting like a good below market

418
00:36:02.480 --> 00:36:09.360
deal on him. He got that
extension because it was like a low per

419
00:36:09.480 --> 00:36:13.320
year rate, right right, Well, I am looking at him now,

420
00:36:13.360 --> 00:36:17.920
and six million dollars of it is
deferred each year, So I mean the

421
00:36:20.039 --> 00:36:23.639
new Bobby buddy a deal. But
I think the thing that he is like

422
00:36:23.760 --> 00:36:27.920
the silver lining if anything, is
that it did not cost them their best

423
00:36:28.000 --> 00:36:31.440
player. No, I mean,
why on earth would you give up your

424
00:36:31.480 --> 00:36:38.840
best player to hold on to Chris
Davis. That s Mark Trumbo a functionally

425
00:36:38.880 --> 00:36:45.679
equivalent player. The deferred money only
goes through twenty thirty seven, so I

426
00:36:45.719 --> 00:36:51.719
don't that's quite Bobby Budnita. Wait, I was on because I was coughing.

427
00:36:51.840 --> 00:36:57.679
What twenty thirty seven? Yeah,
so he's signed through twenty twenty two,

428
00:36:59.000 --> 00:37:05.599
but the deferred money only goes until
twenty thirty seven. So that's that's

429
00:37:05.639 --> 00:37:08.960
gonna be exciting. That's a fun
article that writes itself. Bro, my

430
00:37:09.119 --> 00:37:14.119
daughter's going to be in college when
Chris Davis is done getting paid by the

431
00:37:14.159 --> 00:37:20.400
Oils. Although possibly my favorite I'm
looking at Cott's contract now. My favorite

432
00:37:20.760 --> 00:37:25.639
bullet point outlining the contract is that
there is only limited no trade protection.

433
00:37:25.800 --> 00:37:36.239
He doesn't have full no trade protection
is just limited. So well, well

434
00:37:36.280 --> 00:37:43.639
he kind of has fallowed no trade. There's a difference between being untradeable and

435
00:37:43.760 --> 00:37:50.039
having no trade protection, right,
He's really ensured that. In another way,

436
00:37:52.440 --> 00:37:55.599
it's not true. I mean that's
a sign of his love of Baltimore.

437
00:37:55.920 --> 00:38:00.400
So I genuinely I don't mean to
pick on him because if anyone is

438
00:38:00.440 --> 00:38:04.920
going to uh and also strike,
players who strike out a lot just look

439
00:38:05.400 --> 00:38:09.679
horrible when they are slumping because they
were just not making you know, noctis.

440
00:38:10.440 --> 00:38:15.000
Yeah, so you know, I
think it looks even worse than it

441
00:38:15.199 --> 00:38:19.880
is. Um, of course,
what it is is the worst player in

442
00:38:19.960 --> 00:38:25.920
base so it's not like a feather
in his cap. But um, you

443
00:38:27.000 --> 00:38:30.880
know, I think this is the
year when players are just not getting hits

444
00:38:30.920 --> 00:38:34.840
anymore. I was thinking about this
because I you know, I was looking

445
00:38:34.840 --> 00:38:37.880
at the first week. Um you
know, I was watching some games and

446
00:38:38.679 --> 00:38:45.800
um, just over and over again. I was just watching like really average

447
00:38:45.880 --> 00:38:52.320
pictures just take no hitters. It's
like the fifth inning was it was David

448
00:38:52.360 --> 00:38:58.119
hess who had no. Six.
It was seven and then seven yeah,

449
00:38:58.559 --> 00:39:05.639
yeah, I uh god, almighty. It was like, um, you

450
00:39:05.719 --> 00:39:08.000
know I saw Chris Paddock, uh, you know, making his debut.

451
00:39:08.679 --> 00:39:14.920
That was a no hitter through four
Matt Moore had no hitter through five innings.

452
00:39:15.360 --> 00:39:17.679
Hey, Matt Moore is still good, right, And you love Chris

453
00:39:17.760 --> 00:39:22.960
Paddock, Yeah, and Srud Thornton
matched him. Um, but you know

454
00:39:22.000 --> 00:39:25.920
in his first start, I saw
Brad Peacock throw a bunch of hittings.

455
00:39:27.239 --> 00:39:31.840
You know, it was just um
and just up and down. All sorts

456
00:39:31.880 --> 00:39:37.559
of teams are um just you know, average to bad pictures or throwing two

457
00:39:37.639 --> 00:39:40.800
hitters, three hitters left and right. Um, and something has like just

458
00:39:42.880 --> 00:39:45.079
I don't want to say like broken
in baseball, but um, you know,

459
00:39:46.079 --> 00:39:52.719
I think it's a sign that something
has uh formidably changed when we're seeing

460
00:39:52.800 --> 00:39:57.480
things like that. And you know, I was thinking about what that means

461
00:39:57.800 --> 00:40:02.679
a little bit for U our team
and for Scuorti in general. We were

462
00:40:02.719 --> 00:40:09.400
talking us just a little bit off
fair about some concepts around this. Um.

463
00:40:09.960 --> 00:40:14.679
You know, there is an article
in Joe she Hands Valuable Newsletter.

464
00:40:14.800 --> 00:40:17.400
Again, That's another thing I would
suggest that anyone listening to the subscribe to

465
00:40:19.320 --> 00:40:22.800
about the death of the single.
And I've seen some pole up conversations around

466
00:40:22.880 --> 00:40:30.440
that on the Internet, But the
gist of it is that the single is

467
00:40:30.440 --> 00:40:35.280
almost gone as a offensive weapon,
and it does more than just like,

468
00:40:35.599 --> 00:40:38.199
okay, it's a three tro outcomes
game. Now everyone knows that. It's

469
00:40:38.199 --> 00:40:43.480
been great branding for us. Yeah, we pop up all over the place.

470
00:40:43.559 --> 00:40:51.000
It's great. How apprescient was one
of us. They're both effective marketing

471
00:40:51.039 --> 00:40:58.559
tool certainly not anything else that we
do. Yeah, our one bit of

472
00:40:58.639 --> 00:41:04.599
genius. It's just getting up the
SEO rankings there. Um. But you

473
00:41:04.719 --> 00:41:07.320
know, I think, um,
it's not just seeing the three child comes

474
00:41:07.400 --> 00:41:12.320
game, uh going, it's you
know, the single just all of a

475
00:41:12.360 --> 00:41:16.159
sudden, It makes sacrifice bunts pointless. It makes things like stone basis pointless

476
00:41:16.159 --> 00:41:20.280
because it requires you know, moving
the runner over and then moving the runner

477
00:41:20.320 --> 00:41:29.719
over again. Um. You know
that. Um. Basically, any you

478
00:41:29.840 --> 00:41:32.559
know, any strategy that kind of
moves the runner along is really relying on

479
00:41:32.599 --> 00:41:37.960
a hit that is in all likelihood
never going to come or be an extra

480
00:41:37.000 --> 00:41:44.039
mace hit if it does. Um
um, thus rendering the initial moving the

481
00:41:44.159 --> 00:41:49.760
runner over and right right. Um. And you know, I think it

482
00:41:49.920 --> 00:41:58.760
has moved the game, uh inexorably
towards this U batter picture confrontation that either

483
00:41:58.920 --> 00:42:04.760
ends and strike out or victory with
an extra mashter a home run, and

484
00:42:04.880 --> 00:42:10.599
this kind of all or nothing thing
that is has a lot of m kind

485
00:42:10.639 --> 00:42:15.159
of ramifications for the way that baseball
is being played. And you know,

486
00:42:15.679 --> 00:42:21.039
just thinking about that, because score
sheet is a league that is kind of

487
00:42:22.400 --> 00:42:28.480
the underlying engine. Probably it has
been built and settled in a different offensive

488
00:42:28.519 --> 00:42:34.440
era, to say the least,
you know that there is still a bunt

489
00:42:34.519 --> 00:42:37.719
column and a steel column and those
are really the actions that you can take

490
00:42:37.800 --> 00:42:43.079
and pinch hitting, and none of
those really happen anymore. You know.

491
00:42:43.159 --> 00:42:52.840
There isn't like a shift column or
that kind of you know, reflects the

492
00:42:52.880 --> 00:42:55.519
decisions being made today. But you
know, on the other hand, there

493
00:42:55.519 --> 00:43:02.159
are fewer decisions being made today.
So um, you know, I'm looking

494
00:43:02.239 --> 00:43:07.480
at these two hitters one hitters and
saying like, okay, how are you

495
00:43:07.559 --> 00:43:13.599
building a team this way? You
know, are we looking more even more

496
00:43:13.679 --> 00:43:20.519
towards slugging that over everything else?
If the system is expecting hits that just

497
00:43:20.639 --> 00:43:30.119
aren't going to show up in a
in a simulation, And then I guess

498
00:43:30.159 --> 00:43:35.719
the question is is that okay?
Because the system is really keying on ear

499
00:43:36.639 --> 00:43:42.480
and balancing everything else around it is
that kind of the natural the natural safeguard

500
00:43:42.920 --> 00:43:49.239
to avoid breaking the rest of the
simulation. And Ben, if it's okay,

501
00:43:49.280 --> 00:43:51.119
I'm going to turn it over to
you in a second, because I

502
00:43:51.159 --> 00:43:53.199
think you had a couple of thoughts
on like, Okay, if you're building

503
00:43:53.199 --> 00:44:04.119
a simulation, what is important?
Yeah, yeah, And I think it

504
00:44:04.239 --> 00:44:07.480
gets to some of what you were
saying about how score sheet was built and

505
00:44:07.719 --> 00:44:13.960
designed in a time when you know, baseball as a whole was just played

506
00:44:14.039 --> 00:44:17.840
differently. You know, the frequency
of events was different and the style was

507
00:44:17.920 --> 00:44:22.639
different. I hadn't thought about the
last part of what you said about how

508
00:44:22.679 --> 00:44:28.599
like the era matching sort of keeps
the run environment in check in a way

509
00:44:28.639 --> 00:44:32.360
that might cure some of those other
ills. A lot of what I had

510
00:44:32.400 --> 00:44:37.519
been thinking about when I sort of
brainstorm about this sort of thing is,

511
00:44:38.400 --> 00:44:42.679
you know, one of the things
that happen in real life that need to

512
00:44:44.199 --> 00:44:51.079
be tracked by the sims so that
people that are playing appreciate, you know,

513
00:44:51.280 --> 00:44:54.480
some some realism and also some fantasy, right, Like, we don't

514
00:44:54.559 --> 00:44:59.719
actually want it to be perfectly tied
to reality, because then we'd just be

515
00:45:00.239 --> 00:45:04.280
roto essentially right, it would be
completely deterministic, so right, or strat

516
00:45:04.440 --> 00:45:07.480
or something like that. Yeah,
And so finding the balance between you know,

517
00:45:07.639 --> 00:45:14.159
just one hundred percent replicating reality and
something that deviates so far from reality

518
00:45:14.199 --> 00:45:20.239
that it doesn't feel like our abilities
as fantasy players to evaluate talent or whatever,

519
00:45:21.159 --> 00:45:23.760
you know, have a bearing.
We want we want the thing that

520
00:45:23.880 --> 00:45:30.159
we see played in real life and
our ability to evaluate players as they play

521
00:45:30.639 --> 00:45:35.800
actual baseball to be something that informs
how well we play the fantasy game.

522
00:45:35.840 --> 00:45:38.239
And so you have to start a
pick, you know, and I think

523
00:45:38.280 --> 00:45:43.079
you could you could come up with
a ranking or something like that where you're

524
00:45:43.119 --> 00:45:46.840
like, well, home runs are
probably more important than triples, right,

525
00:45:46.880 --> 00:45:52.360
because home runs are happening more often, they have a more significant driving force

526
00:45:52.639 --> 00:45:59.239
on run expectancy and team performance and
all these other things. So you know,

527
00:45:59.320 --> 00:46:01.760
you could go through through the different
ways that a plate appearance can end

528
00:46:02.159 --> 00:46:06.599
and have a sense for, like, you know, which things are the

529
00:46:06.679 --> 00:46:10.480
most important in terms of how closely
they track between fantasy and reality. And

530
00:46:12.119 --> 00:46:19.000
my sense is that singles, unto
themselves, probably wouldn't be They'll probably be

531
00:46:19.039 --> 00:46:22.039
like in the middle third somewhere.
It's like my hunch, right, it

532
00:46:22.079 --> 00:46:25.079
wouldn't be at the bottom because again
maybe something like triples are down there or

533
00:46:25.880 --> 00:46:29.920
depending on how finally you want to
break it out, like the nature of

534
00:46:31.480 --> 00:46:36.440
you know, ground out versus lineout
versus flyball pop up, that type of

535
00:46:36.519 --> 00:46:40.639
thing. You know, the type
of batted ball out matters a little bit,

536
00:46:40.800 --> 00:46:46.719
but you know it doesn't matter as
much as maybe single versus double versus

537
00:46:47.039 --> 00:46:53.760
home run types of things. So
yeah, and I think one of the

538
00:46:53.800 --> 00:47:00.480
things that is interesting to me conceptually
about this is that, um, there's

539
00:47:00.480 --> 00:47:07.159
a real break point between something like
single, double, home run and ar

540
00:47:08.599 --> 00:47:14.159
right, because era is something that's
measuring outcome as opposed to like the result

541
00:47:14.199 --> 00:47:16.320
of it at bats. It's this
overall result of the game. It's this

542
00:47:16.400 --> 00:47:22.079
abstract concept, right, So you
know, if a if a pitcher,

543
00:47:22.039 --> 00:47:25.400
uh, let's say a J.
Burnett's it and allows let's say nine hits,

544
00:47:25.519 --> 00:47:31.079
nine walks, strikes out seven and
no runs, I think it's scoresheet

545
00:47:31.079 --> 00:47:37.039
there are going to allow no runs, yeah or something. The fact that

546
00:47:37.119 --> 00:47:39.320
they allowed no runs is way more
notable than the fact that they allowed nine

547
00:47:39.400 --> 00:47:47.800
hits, right, right, And
in this world where let's say a pictures

548
00:47:49.039 --> 00:47:53.239
pitch for five innings allowed two hits
and two runs both by home run.

549
00:47:55.679 --> 00:48:00.840
The thing that is most notable is
the two runs right picture strike at its

550
00:48:01.400 --> 00:48:10.840
functionally don't matter. Yeah, I
think that's generally true. The way that

551
00:48:10.920 --> 00:48:16.280
the batter gets out is not is
not that significant, and it's becoming even

552
00:48:16.360 --> 00:48:22.400
less significant, right. That's part
of what you're getting at with Like the

553
00:48:22.559 --> 00:48:27.239
decrease in singles is also like the
increase in strikeouts, and the fact that

554
00:48:29.079 --> 00:48:31.639
you know, the groundball to the
right side that used to advance the runner

555
00:48:31.800 --> 00:48:38.480
is less and less consequential as the
ability for that base advancement to have a

556
00:48:38.559 --> 00:48:44.159
difference in the sequencing and how many
runs are scored. Right, and you

557
00:48:44.280 --> 00:48:52.320
have batting averages essentially collapsing in real
baseball, mitigated somewhat by the home runs.

558
00:48:55.760 --> 00:49:02.360
So you know, I think what's
interesting in building a simulation or something

559
00:49:02.440 --> 00:49:07.400
like that would be this balance of
like, Okay, do we want to

560
00:49:07.559 --> 00:49:13.639
preserve this run environment that exists,
or do we want to try to simulate

561
00:49:14.719 --> 00:49:21.239
this batter picture outcome as the funk
as the key unit. And then you

562
00:49:21.320 --> 00:49:23.440
know, if you do that,
I think you're a little bit more susceptible

563
00:49:23.880 --> 00:49:30.599
to these types of changes in league. You think tying it more directly to

564
00:49:30.639 --> 00:49:36.480
the batter picture interaction leaves you susceptible
when the run environment changes. Yeah,

565
00:49:36.719 --> 00:49:42.920
Or I think as the batter picture, you know, if you haven't modeled

566
00:49:43.119 --> 00:49:49.280
let's say singles correctly, you know
there's no countervailing force that's saying, Okay,

567
00:49:49.440 --> 00:49:52.679
well, I don't care how the
team needs to score run here,

568
00:49:54.039 --> 00:50:01.559
it just happens, right. I
think also, if you did it correctly

569
00:50:02.519 --> 00:50:07.599
and the sims programmed to track to
reality closely enough in terms of the batter

570
00:50:07.679 --> 00:50:14.719
picture interaction, it would automatically correct
itself, right. And I think I

571
00:50:14.800 --> 00:50:16.960
think part of what we've talked about
is you sort of want to get to

572
00:50:17.039 --> 00:50:22.519
the lowest level that you can if
you're really going for realism, because it'll

573
00:50:22.599 --> 00:50:29.480
have a tendency to correct itself and
you won't see weird anomalous results that don't

574
00:50:29.519 --> 00:50:32.119
seem to track based on what you
would expect to happen, right, Like

575
00:50:32.360 --> 00:50:37.840
that example that you gave with like
the A. J. Burnett start doesn't

576
00:50:37.119 --> 00:50:43.199
and shouldn't probably happen very often,
right, right. And I think some

577
00:50:43.400 --> 00:50:46.239
of what we see in the like
run balancing or luck balancing types of things

578
00:50:46.280 --> 00:50:52.400
that happen in score sheet are situations
where like, this player's this batter's performance

579
00:50:53.239 --> 00:50:57.440
has to be like at a certain
level in order to sort of track to

580
00:50:58.320 --> 00:51:01.440
you know, they're like key perform
indicators from real life, like on base

581
00:51:01.519 --> 00:51:06.599
percentage or whatever. But because the
picture that they're facing, you know,

582
00:51:06.760 --> 00:51:10.719
has some luck and run balancing,
that means that they're gonna artificially suppressed run

583
00:51:10.760 --> 00:51:15.760
scoring. You get these sort of
like weird combinations of things where a lot

584
00:51:15.800 --> 00:51:21.119
of runners get stranded or the sequencing
as such that you know, things end

585
00:51:21.199 --> 00:51:23.480
up looking kind of wonky and you're
sort of like, well, you know,

586
00:51:23.519 --> 00:51:28.000
I guess you can chalk some of
that up to the randomness of sequencing,

587
00:51:28.079 --> 00:51:34.159
but at some point it's it looks
too weird to be believable. Whereas

588
00:51:34.159 --> 00:51:37.559
if you could really track to like
the nuts and bolts of the batter picture

589
00:51:37.559 --> 00:51:39.440
interaction, I think all that would
take care of itself, or would come

590
00:51:39.519 --> 00:51:47.360
much closer to taking care of itself. So yeah, Jared, I'm just

591
00:51:47.480 --> 00:51:53.760
curious what you know between the two, Like do you think kind of preserving

592
00:51:53.800 --> 00:52:00.800
the run environment might be more important
or you know, do you do you

593
00:52:00.960 --> 00:52:07.440
think this like fundamental unit is enough
to kind of carry a simulation through or

594
00:52:07.559 --> 00:52:10.719
is that something you'd be looking towards. Let's say, do you how do

595
00:52:10.800 --> 00:52:16.239
you want your David has start reflected
David has should only pitch no hitters.

596
00:52:16.880 --> 00:52:23.480
Um, I leaned towards the fundamental
unit. But may I ask a I've

597
00:52:23.519 --> 00:52:27.159
been thinking about like a somewhat related
question. I don't want to. I

598
00:52:27.199 --> 00:52:29.960
don't want to. They've hurt the
conversation. If you guys said more that

599
00:52:30.000 --> 00:52:32.519
you want to come on, Jo, this is a very focused exploration.

600
00:52:34.639 --> 00:52:37.719
Well, I've just been thinking about
it from like a more like one level

601
00:52:37.840 --> 00:52:43.480
up in terms of like interaction with
the sim And so my bias here is

602
00:52:43.559 --> 00:52:50.239
that I've never found the managing part
of stuff as interesting as the GM aspects.

603
00:52:50.599 --> 00:52:52.519
So like, I didn't play STRAT, but we had this board game

604
00:52:52.519 --> 00:52:55.760
called Superstar Baseball that was spec similar
of STRAT basically, and it for to

605
00:52:55.880 --> 00:52:59.320
me it was more fun it was
drafting the cards of the Hall of Famers

606
00:52:59.400 --> 00:53:01.400
rather than actually playing the games against
my brother. But it seems sort of

607
00:53:01.440 --> 00:53:06.360
deal. But so I guess my
question is and I think it's related because

608
00:53:06.599 --> 00:53:09.519
it seems like that's part of the
appeal of something like UM scoresheet is that

609
00:53:09.559 --> 00:53:12.320
you get to be the manager too, and you get to you know,

610
00:53:12.559 --> 00:53:15.119
just all other strategies that every every
battery decide steal or bunt or whatever the

611
00:53:15.159 --> 00:53:19.400
case may be. But it sounds
like, you know what we're talking about

612
00:53:19.440 --> 00:53:22.159
in this in the sort of environment
that the role of the manager, both

613
00:53:22.199 --> 00:53:30.199
in real life and in something like
scoresheet, is um plays less of a

614
00:53:30.360 --> 00:53:34.480
role in the SIM. And like, how how should how deep? What

615
00:53:34.599 --> 00:53:38.639
plays less of a role in the
SIM managerial strategy? Yeah? Right?

616
00:53:38.719 --> 00:53:42.119
Like if the single? If the
single is less important, then stealing and

617
00:53:42.320 --> 00:53:45.079
stealing and bunting are less important.
Then what are the lovers that a manager

618
00:53:45.519 --> 00:53:50.920
is has to pull? And how
much does one need to think about that

619
00:53:51.039 --> 00:53:54.360
when thinking about the SIM? Right? And a manager is pulling? Like

620
00:53:54.400 --> 00:53:58.079
if we talk about a major league
manager, the things that they are most

621
00:53:58.159 --> 00:54:02.239
doing are well, frank, listening
to the general manager, a like executing

622
00:54:02.280 --> 00:54:09.079
their will. But I would say
major league manager's biggest decisions are kind of

623
00:54:09.119 --> 00:54:17.599
setting the lineup based upon batter pitcher
interaction effects, right, so you usually

624
00:54:17.679 --> 00:54:23.480
handedness, but things like that,
I would say defensive positioning, and this

625
00:54:23.559 --> 00:54:28.159
would be the magial unit, right, including the bench coaches, defensive positioning,

626
00:54:28.719 --> 00:54:36.400
and then bullpen management. Sure,
it seemed like the three big levers,

627
00:54:36.719 --> 00:54:40.760
and I would say you're right that
none of those seem particularly well reflected

628
00:54:40.880 --> 00:54:45.079
right now. I think bullpen management
is the low hanging fruit there. The

629
00:54:45.280 --> 00:54:52.360
like picture substitution should be something that
are easier to have a fine tune wrench

630
00:54:52.400 --> 00:54:57.000
around, where like shifting and positioning
and stuff like that, it's going to

631
00:54:57.039 --> 00:55:02.239
be much tougher, Yeah, because
especially and you're already dealing with results shifting,

632
00:55:02.840 --> 00:55:07.960
so you can't like so shifting the
defense and then on top of that,

633
00:55:08.320 --> 00:55:15.519
dealing with shifted player results. I
think that's extremely messy too. Untangle.

634
00:55:16.519 --> 00:55:22.760
Sure, yeah, but you know
it does seem like that is the

635
00:55:22.880 --> 00:55:29.639
way that you know material decisions are
going, and it's kind of tough to

636
00:55:29.760 --> 00:55:32.599
say, like, Okay, this
player needs to bunt to the sixth ending

637
00:55:35.519 --> 00:55:40.199
when and have that be your decision
when you know so much energy is being

638
00:55:40.239 --> 00:55:49.679
focused elsewhere in the real world.
Yes, I agree with that, all

639
00:55:49.719 --> 00:55:53.440
right, Yes, so I think
it's interesting. I think we might pick

640
00:55:53.519 --> 00:55:59.239
that up. We're coming to the
end of our our audio recording window right

641
00:55:59.320 --> 00:56:01.960
now, though. I do want
to hivot and you know, if we

642
00:56:02.039 --> 00:56:05.519
have more to talk about on a
subject, that's great because you know what

643
00:56:05.639 --> 00:56:10.480
that means. That's a podcast topic
for next time. Um. But until

644
00:56:10.559 --> 00:56:15.400
then, UM can I I want
to tease the thing that we're going to

645
00:56:15.440 --> 00:56:19.880
talk about next time because I think
so Jared, you've talked about this before.

646
00:56:19.880 --> 00:56:23.400
It was like how realistic do you
really need it to be? You

647
00:56:23.519 --> 00:56:29.719
know, like what's the driver of
how fun it is? You know,

648
00:56:29.760 --> 00:56:32.320
because I think everything we're talking about
here is like, how can you gear

649
00:56:32.400 --> 00:56:36.920
it to be as realistic as possible? But maybe the better question is like

650
00:56:37.000 --> 00:56:39.800
how can you gear it to be
as fun as possible? And when are

651
00:56:39.800 --> 00:56:44.079
those the same thing? Yeah,
and for anyone who has made it this

652
00:56:44.239 --> 00:56:47.679
far and cares to share their thoughts, we want to hear them. Baseball

653
00:56:47.679 --> 00:56:52.039
Perspectives dot com. If you don't
have a good scoresheet, team question,

654
00:56:52.360 --> 00:56:55.840
at least chime in with your opinions
on sim stuff and we can share those

655
00:56:55.880 --> 00:57:01.320
on there. M Yeah, and
you know again, we'll probably ask that

656
00:57:01.960 --> 00:57:07.440
a little more upfront in the next
podcast. But until then, Ben,

657
00:57:08.000 --> 00:57:12.280
what is the best thing you saw
this week? I was gonna go with

658
00:57:13.199 --> 00:57:16.679
the Chris Davis stuff. Yeah,
first, and then I was like,

659
00:57:16.760 --> 00:57:20.760
well, I can't do that because
like and then you said, like you're

660
00:57:20.800 --> 00:57:29.639
gonna tease chat about that anyway,
So I couldn't go there. And one

661
00:57:29.679 --> 00:57:32.519
of the things that happens in the
timing of like when baseball starts that matters

662
00:57:32.519 --> 00:57:37.920
a little bit more in the northern
climates is the start of spring. So

663
00:57:37.000 --> 00:57:42.400
I was gonna go at the start
of spring. It's been wonderful weather around

664
00:57:42.679 --> 00:57:46.480
Michigan, and it's gonna be opportunity
to take a lease outside and it's fun

665
00:57:46.559 --> 00:57:51.400
to watch her like run around and
just sort of be outside for the first

666
00:57:51.440 --> 00:57:54.880
time when she's able to walk.
We're outside today, I was like taking

667
00:57:54.920 --> 00:58:00.199
the dogs out or whatever, and
like a huge gust of wind came like

668
00:58:00.800 --> 00:58:04.800
completely shocked her because you know,
you don't you don't think about her like

669
00:58:05.079 --> 00:58:08.800
she's spent her entire life indoors.
Basically, right, is really strange,

670
00:58:09.159 --> 00:58:13.199
right, right, Like, and
so like this is the thing about being

671
00:58:13.199 --> 00:58:15.960
a parent that is like continually rewarding. It's like you're like, oh wait,

672
00:58:16.119 --> 00:58:20.159
Like I never thought about what it
would be like to experience wind for

673
00:58:20.199 --> 00:58:23.039
the first time. So she has
just like very bewildered look on her face,

674
00:58:23.159 --> 00:58:28.920
like what is going on? It
was awesome. Yeah, definitely looking

675
00:58:28.960 --> 00:58:30.960
forward to spring, getting outside more, going on walks, that kind of

676
00:58:31.000 --> 00:58:36.280
thing. So you next time by
blowing on her. Yeah, so,

677
00:58:36.760 --> 00:58:39.000
and I have actually they have.
So babies have this reflex. You may

678
00:58:39.079 --> 00:58:42.480
may not be aware. I think
it called the diverse reflex. So like

679
00:58:43.000 --> 00:58:45.840
if they're crying and you blow on
them and it'll like startle them for a

680
00:58:45.880 --> 00:58:50.719
second and they'll stop crying. So
if you're willing to like hyperventilate yourself,

681
00:58:50.800 --> 00:58:54.960
you can sort of like mitigate really
terrible crying fits. So she definitely had

682
00:58:55.000 --> 00:59:00.400
like people blow on her face before. I won't say that, you know,

683
00:59:00.519 --> 00:59:02.519
let's a go to move of mine
or anything. But uh, it's

684
00:59:02.559 --> 00:59:07.440
not like the wind itself was completely
for like the notion of having like air

685
00:59:07.599 --> 00:59:10.719
moving around her. It was just
like, you know, of course there's

686
00:59:10.719 --> 00:59:14.519
a feeling on her and then like
all the trees are making all the noise

687
00:59:14.639 --> 00:59:17.079
and the leaves are kicking up,
and it's just anyway, Can I just

688
00:59:17.119 --> 00:59:21.360
say if if I were crying and
somebody blew on my face, I would

689
00:59:21.400 --> 00:59:24.920
be pretty startled too. Yeah,
yeah, yeah, yeah, they grow

690
00:59:25.000 --> 00:59:31.400
out of it after a while.
But um yeah, so it's a good

691
00:59:31.440 --> 00:59:37.039
s tragy for really, anyone who's
crying just get all up in their face.

692
00:59:38.360 --> 00:59:42.639
Um. So, Jared, what
is the best thing you saw this

693
00:59:42.760 --> 00:59:49.199
week? I'm gonna stretch the limits
of one thing and turn it into three

694
00:59:49.280 --> 00:59:54.159
things. Okay, but but no
vers real quick. Um. I don't

695
00:59:54.159 --> 00:59:57.880
know if you guys remember last podcast. I was like, man, Yankees

696
00:59:57.920 --> 01:00:00.400
are so good. Even if they
had two injuries to their hitters and two

697
01:00:00.440 --> 01:00:05.199
injuries to their pictures, It's still
be just fine. I'm just gonna leave

698
01:00:05.239 --> 01:00:08.039
that there for a second. Um, but the best thing I saw this

699
01:00:08.159 --> 01:00:15.119
week was I'm gonna get two things. It's it's uh interaction between fans and

700
01:00:15.199 --> 01:00:16.199
players. So going back to the
Chris Davis, I want to bring it

701
01:00:16.280 --> 01:00:21.280
up before. I was watching the
game last night when Chris Davis broke the

702
01:00:21.360 --> 01:00:27.760
record, and um, sorry,
I just love that. It's like the

703
01:00:27.840 --> 01:00:30.920
Cal ripping game. You know,
were you there with Chris Davis broke the

704
01:00:31.000 --> 01:00:37.840
record? Wait, Jared, weren't
you also there when Cal broth the record?

705
01:00:38.519 --> 01:00:43.119
So you're like witnessed all kinds of
oil records. I wasn't I wasn't

706
01:00:43.119 --> 01:00:46.639
in Baltimore yesterday. I was on
catch because there was only sixty five hundred

707
01:00:46.719 --> 01:00:52.199
people was the announced crowd, the
lowest attendance in Kenny Yards history. No

708
01:00:52.800 --> 01:00:58.079
get broken a few times this year, guys, but just them. And

709
01:00:58.199 --> 01:01:00.519
maybe this is maybe me was casting
it onto that. But the way that

710
01:01:00.599 --> 01:01:05.840
the fans treated um, Chris Davis
when he was up to tie and then

711
01:01:06.079 --> 01:01:08.960
to break the record was really positive. It felt positive. At least it

712
01:01:09.039 --> 01:01:12.960
felt like this is a situation where
they could have gotten on his case.

713
01:01:13.039 --> 01:01:14.920
And there are certainly tons of people
who are like, oh man, you're

714
01:01:14.920 --> 01:01:17.639
getting paid twenty three million dollars to
be absolutely terrible and and literally anybody else

715
01:01:17.679 --> 01:01:22.679
could do what Chris Davis is doing
because he's not doing anything. But at

716
01:01:22.760 --> 01:01:25.239
least in this one moment, it
was it felt kind of nice that the

717
01:01:25.320 --> 01:01:30.800
fans were, h we're not on
his case with this one at that,

718
01:01:30.960 --> 01:01:34.159
which must be a really truly terrible
moment in somebody's life. It's like the

719
01:01:34.280 --> 01:01:38.920
Rudy moment, right, sort of
yeah, you know what the opposite something

720
01:01:40.199 --> 01:01:43.320
well, but then he doesn't look
like he find he's getting a lot of

721
01:01:43.360 --> 01:01:45.639
money but like to be have all
this attention on just how terrible you are

722
01:01:45.840 --> 01:01:50.880
is gotten kind of rough and it
was somewhat supportive, you know, Yeah,

723
01:01:51.159 --> 01:01:54.760
it is a Bombers like I do
genuinely like as much as he is

724
01:01:54.760 --> 01:01:59.599
a rich person, I do genuinely
feel bad for him because I think there's

725
01:01:59.639 --> 01:02:05.000
a confluence of factors that yeah too
at this point. And it was actually

726
01:02:05.079 --> 01:02:07.599
kind of exciting watching it. I
gotta say, just you know, whether

727
01:02:07.639 --> 01:02:08.119
he's going to get a hit,
and I don't know if you guys saw,

728
01:02:08.199 --> 01:02:10.480
like on the last one he actually
hit the ball really well. As

729
01:02:10.480 --> 01:02:12.880
soon as he hit it, I
was like, oh man, he did

730
01:02:12.920 --> 01:02:15.119
it. And if you if you
look afterwards, like the hit probability on

731
01:02:15.199 --> 01:02:17.400
it, I was fifty eight percent
or something. Got unlucky. It was.

732
01:02:19.800 --> 01:02:22.000
It was kind of crazy. But
then just yep, unlucky. It's

733
01:02:22.039 --> 01:02:27.079
a good word for Chris Teas.
That's gonna be rough one we make all

734
01:02:27.119 --> 01:02:32.039
the records move over to stack cast. I was at the Nats game when

735
01:02:32.079 --> 01:02:36.360
I was last week, when I
was that, uh, Bryce Harper came

736
01:02:36.400 --> 01:02:39.400
back for the first game. Um, I managed to get free tickets and

737
01:02:39.480 --> 01:02:43.440
then because it's the Nats, their
beer concessant stopped working, so I got

738
01:02:43.480 --> 01:02:49.119
free beers. There's I mean win, but uh uh yeah. Just to

739
01:02:49.199 --> 01:02:52.559
see the reaction that that Bryce Harper
got when his first time up, I

740
01:02:52.599 --> 01:02:53.840
don't know if it was good or
bad, but it was just a thing.

741
01:02:53.960 --> 01:02:58.320
And to see NAT's fans passionate about
something I guess was nice, but

742
01:02:59.559 --> 01:03:01.599
it was. It's just kind of
interesting being there and seeing both the Nuts

743
01:03:01.599 --> 01:03:05.599
and the Phillies fans and there was
so much emotion there. It was fun

744
01:03:05.679 --> 01:03:07.840
to be there. I guess.
I don't have a judgment on him.

745
01:03:07.400 --> 01:03:09.920
Who was the person on Twitter that
wrote, like, why are you people

746
01:03:09.960 --> 01:03:17.079
booing? You were all Oriels fans
fifteen years ago. It's just such a

747
01:03:17.280 --> 01:03:22.360
remarkable troll. I appreciate it.
Yeah, No, I mean it's it's

748
01:03:22.400 --> 01:03:24.119
clearly fair. But I guess if
the Nuts are going to build their fans,

749
01:03:24.199 --> 01:03:27.039
you know, build their history of
something, this is sort of how

750
01:03:27.079 --> 01:03:30.760
it starts. That. Yeah,
and that was definitely a remarkable game.

751
01:03:31.159 --> 01:03:37.239
Um. You know, I was
gonna stretch the definition of best thing I

752
01:03:37.320 --> 01:03:39.760
saw this week because the best thing
I saw this week was not the Bryce

753
01:03:39.840 --> 01:03:45.679
Harper Nationals game. It was the
first Bryce Harper home game where he hit

754
01:03:45.960 --> 01:03:52.760
a home run in the eighth inning
and then was it the or late in

755
01:03:52.800 --> 01:03:54.519
the game. Um, So you
know, he came up and was just

756
01:03:54.599 --> 01:04:02.800
getting cheered by Phillies fans who are
obviously noted for their uh passion and love

757
01:04:03.000 --> 01:04:10.639
of the hometown craw hometown nine.
Um. And then you know, I

758
01:04:11.920 --> 01:04:15.599
kind of in his last bad of
his first game of you know, his

759
01:04:15.639 --> 01:04:18.840
Philly's career, he hits a mammoth
home run. He I mean, obviously

760
01:04:18.880 --> 01:04:28.519
he's been looking okay part of the
season. Yeah, I know. And

761
01:04:29.079 --> 01:04:33.000
the thing the thing that got me
about that well, to youth so one.

762
01:04:33.239 --> 01:04:38.960
You know, just uh, the
moment, the passion, the excitement

763
01:04:39.159 --> 01:04:41.840
in the standard you know, him
coming out, and it was like,

764
01:04:42.159 --> 01:04:45.000
oh, this is you know,
this is what makes sports exciting that you

765
01:04:45.280 --> 01:04:49.119
you know, you can't script things
and it just makes things all the more

766
01:04:49.199 --> 01:04:54.159
enjoyable for the fact that you know, when it does happen, it feels

767
01:04:55.440 --> 01:05:00.599
electric and alive. Um. But
that wasn't the best thing. The best

768
01:05:00.679 --> 01:05:03.679
thing I saw about that was that
ad as he was hitting the home run.

769
01:05:04.360 --> 01:05:13.199
On the replay, you could see
in his swing you see a bunch

770
01:05:13.280 --> 01:05:18.880
of fans rise and in the middle
of the fans looking like blend close in

771
01:05:18.960 --> 01:05:26.639
the natural is the Philly fanatics straight
to cabin with what I can only describe

772
01:05:26.679 --> 01:05:32.079
as a shocked expression. And everyone
is moving, and the Philly fanatic is

773
01:05:32.119 --> 01:05:40.400
just like staring at you dead on
with like surprise, joy, all the

774
01:05:40.480 --> 01:05:47.559
emotions that you can expect from felt. And you know, as everyone rises

775
01:05:48.000 --> 01:05:51.880
and uh, you know, eventually
you see this Philly fanatic just get ready

776
01:05:51.920 --> 01:05:58.920
to do his thing, his thing, obviously being less enjoyable, staring likely

777
01:05:59.599 --> 01:06:06.320
straight to camera. Uh you you
just appreciate, like, oh, this

778
01:06:06.559 --> 01:06:11.519
is this is amazing, This is
a moment, This is like wonder Boy

779
01:06:11.960 --> 01:06:16.159
all over again. I knew there
was a twist coming. I didn't see

780
01:06:16.159 --> 01:06:19.119
that one. That was pretty good. Maybe there is some magic in baseball

781
01:06:19.159 --> 01:06:30.800
after all. All right, So
on that note, please send us your

782
01:06:30.880 --> 01:06:36.199
thoughts, questions, memories other Philip
fanatic to Scoresheet at Baseball Perspectives dot com.

783
01:06:36.840 --> 01:06:41.440
Until then, on behalf of Ben
Murphony Jaredwis I mean Leftgwitz. Thanks

784
01:06:41.480 --> 01:06:42.679
again and have a great day.