What is up, fellow thermonuclear a efforts. I am Dan Pavalley coming at
you with another episode of the Hardware Knock Podcast. Before we get started very
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I probably will put this on po pod, the actual YouTube podcast,
but I will put it in the the actual audio podcast because I do feel
loyalty to the listeners that have stuck with me all these years. And it's
not a it's not a crisis of self or anything. But I am currently
in the process of moving. I know I'm very fortunate to do so,
but there's a lot of work being done to the house that I just purchased
because we're morons and bought a house in this market. Again, we were
lucky enough to be able to do it. So my schedule is going to
be just more chaotic. I will still try and put out between four and
six episodes a week, which is what I've been doing. The quality of
content will be as good as it has been, which is to say it
will completely suck. But if the schedules sometimes maybe there might be leaner weeks.
That is why the other thing is with the interests of full transparency is
like I said, Grant and I we do this is more of a passion
project. The ad revenue as of right now has just been slashed, and
so we're have to put our priorities where like you know, the money sort
of lies there. And I'm not going like the podcast is always going to
be free. That's not what I'm getting at this isn't a preamble to anything
along those lines, but I did want to explain just in Kate the content
is down, or for also our Discord members. I'm watching the conversations.
I'll try and participate as much as possible, but I'm maybe asking for some
you know, if I don't get back to you right away, or if
I'm not as active over the next month or so. Just wanted to explain
to you the reason why. Like I said, I will still aim to
put out four to six episodes a week even if the Discord thing is down.
If my activity is down, I will still be watching on Discord.
So rest assured there, but I wanted to give I feel like I've been
less active in there over the past five days and I just felt obligated to
give an explanation there. And like I said, if it the podcast does
get leaner, I think we can always guarantee you at least two episodes a
week, which is what we used to do, and then I uped it
to four to six because I enjoy this. It also forces me to cover
the league as much as possible, and I love interacting with our listeners and
that's really the only driving force behind this is that there's people who are listening.
I don't understand why all the time, but they're so fun to talk
to in the DMS and the Discord, and so while I'm at the moment
overwhelmed with stuff to do, I you know, I have not been ready
to forfeit that type of just relationship with our listeners and people to talk hoops
with. But again, just if it does get leaner, there will still
be two podcasts a week because we do do things. You know, both
of Grant and I are full time at Pleach Report. Everyone knows that I
do some other consulting on the side, and like, I'm going to have
to put the priority as to what makes the most financial sense here. Again,
the quality of the podcast will still suck, so it won't suck any
less, but I wanted to give the listeners to, you know, audio
wise, like you guys have stuck with us and the Discord members specifically,
just wanted to give that little spiel there. Let's move on to just some
trade news murmurings. There were a lot of injuries over the end in the
NBA over the weekend. I couldn't keep track of it. While it's in
the process of doing things to my house going back through it. I'm just
exhausted from the sheer amount of injuries. A lot of them were going to
talk about though, at least some of the most noteworthy ones in our Eastern
Conference Questions Pod, which is coming at you Wednesday and Friday of this week,
so the day before and then the day after Thanksgiving. I'm not going
to touch upon them here. And there was also, you know, if
we need to blow through it, like Russell Westbrooks X ray came back negative
on his I think even Marcus Smart might return the lineup on Monday. Did
not catch that Celtics game, so I might have been off on the news
there. But we'll get into some of those injuries. If you have specific
questions about one, you could DM me or you can ask a question on
discord and we will hit it in kind. I wanted to focus on some
There was, like you know, mark Stein and Shams had reported some stuff
over the weekend. I think I saw some fan bases sort of lusting after
a zach Lavine trade when he was benched in the fourth quarter by head coach
Billy Donovan. Zach Lavine said there was no ill feelings between him and Pulls
coach Donovan that came from Darnel Mayberry of the Athletic Lavigne was upset though when
he was benched. I think it was whether they playing the magic. He
was one of fourteen from the floor. He said, this is per Mayberry.
Me and Billy talk all the time. It's a tough decision. Obviously,
I'm a repetitive guy. I want to play. I just told him
I feel like I've earned the right to go out there and try to play
through a bad game. His decision was to try to do the best thing
for the team, which I respect. If we want obviously, I would
have been a static we lost. I wasn't. I had a terrible game.
Just noteworthy, Lavigne battling these stuff. Shooting forty six point two percent
on twos this year, which would be the lowest of his career since his
rookie season, and he's getting to the line at a career low clip clip
Still, he's been shooting twenty three point five percent from three over his past
four games as well. Just something to monitor because he's still so young.
But he's only twenty seven and he's going to turn twenty eight. It'll be
in March, but he's coming off another knee problem, and like his performances
like waxed and waned and Ed didn't flowed more than normal this season during the
first year of a five year deal. The Bulls, who were as I
before I started recording this, were pummeling the Celtics. They're sort of just
hovering on the sub middle of the Eastern Conference, and they just have a
lot of, I think inward questions to kind of ask themselves at this point
there, you know, being eleventh in the East, that's not where you
want to stay. You're still only six games outside of first place, if
we're going to frame it that way. But this is just this is just
a team to watch because it just feels like there's something off there that they're
them in Miami. I just can't you know, we can get into the
Sixers with their injuries, and we're gonna talk about all these teams again more
more in depth shortly Grant and I. But the Heat and Bulls just give
me like weird vibes that I can't wrap my head around. And I'm I
might be a little bit more concerned with Miami because my expectations were higher,
but just the Zach Lavine rough stretch that he's currently having, uh and just
like looking at digging into some of the the sort of the offensive splits for
him. I do think it's worth monitoring there. Not to think that,
I not to say that I think he is going to wind up on the
trade block this year, but it's just it's just something feels off in Chicago.
That's That's where I'm at with this. H So we had trade murmuries
basically focused on the Hawks and the Jazz or John Collins centric mark Stein said
John Collins was nearly dealt to the Kings over the off season, and then
sources also told The Sign that momentum is building on all sides for Collins to
be traded during this season and that his name will be at the four of
the February trade deadline rumor mill That is not really shocking at this point.
He has been marginalized in Atlanta's offense. When you look at last year specifically,
John Collins had thirty three point three front court touches for thirty six minutes
and at twenty point five usage rate. This season, he's down to twenty
two point six front court touches for thirty six minutes, and his US's rate
is around sixteen. You add another ball dominant guy de Jante Marie to an
offense that already had trade Young, and then you also sort of moved Collins
away from being your primary screener with the addition of Clint Capella in the first
place a few seasons ago. His counting stats, his advanced stats, like
anything that's prided on volume, is going to be diminished. I think it's
probably he would be better off in a different situation. I don't know if
you're Atlanta, though, what are you looking to get for him? Stein
mentions that they could be in the Jay crowd are running and we'll mention the
Phoenix in a second. But you're not. You're Atlanta. You're trying to
win, now, are you trading? You're not trading John Collins for picks
and prospects, and Stein ordered that the Jazz have interested in John Collins.
That would be super interesting. They're already just trying to play five out.
I don't know what that package looks like. They have extra first round picks
for days, they have salary that they could send in and out. But
if you're Atlanta. Who are you really looking for here? Is this like
you want Mollie Beasley and picks or like is Kelly Olynik involved in that?
I'm assuming maybe people think that they would want lowry marketing. I'm assuming the
Jazz want to keep lowry marketing. The Jazz are still in first in the
West, and if they're going to go, imagine the Jazz getting John Collins
and just making the wind now move after everyone thought they were at the front
of the line for Victor wemban Yama this year. That would just be the
storylines already incredible because their first in the West. That would just be astounding
to me. And we're talking about their offense has been potent as hell already.
I don't look more shooting, and I do wonder if, like,
can you feed him enough in this offense to where his touches would be appreciably
higher. I think you should get around it. I just look at like
you're not dealing with anyone who is heliocentric on this team, between Colin Sexton
and Jordan Clarkson and Mike Conley and Larry Market and like you're not. There's
no one who has to cannibalize all these offensive possessions. I don't know that
I want to see them throw it to John Collins in the post and let
him work there. But you could certainly carve out more possessions with him as
a screener. Now would I advocate for the Jazz to do it. It
just depends on costs because I viewed Collins and there is a running joke here
as infinitely scalable and can fit anywhere on offense, and even like on Atlanta
he could fit with what he's doing now is just not going to be this
glitzy role. There's not room for it. It feels like he's buried too
much of the time. It's just like you're at the point in the Jazz
rebuild where it does still feel a little bit too early. But if the
cost has dropped so much because they just want to get rid of the three
years and seventy eight point five million left on his deal or something, because
they know they have the Hunter extension kicking in. They they're paying Clink Compel,
or they thinking about de Chante Murray's next deal. They're paying Trey Young.
That's interesting. Maybe they consider like on Echo Kungo or someone who could
play with Clink Compel eventually or he's their big guy the future, and they
don't even they're not that married to Capella. I honestly don't know. Collins
was supposed to be dealt over the summer to the Kings would have been weird,
like the way they're playing now. I guess what would they have the
top offense in the league, but I'm assuming Barnes would have been involved,
and I do think their defense would suffer quite a bit if you go from
Barnes and Murray and Sabonis to Collins, Sabonis and Murray. But the King
clearly had a vision and that was just to assemble a crap ton of shooting
and look ats working. They have the second best officers in the league right
now, so that would have been fascinating. I would bet against them becoming
involved again, even though Harrison Barnes is probably been a little bit better or
has been a little bit better recently, underachieved overall in the season. I
would think that the Caden's aren't trying to really rock the boat here though,
and they already went ahead and made the deal for Kevin Hurder. I don't
know if it was supposed to be part of a larger context deal like with
both of those guys have wound up in Sacramento very curiously what the deal would
have looked like there, But I'm assuming it would have been like Harrison,
Barnes and Collins sort of as the meat and potatoes of that deal. Seams
did mention that the Sons might be in on John Collins, but that they
didn't want the three years and seventy eight point five million dollars left on his
deal. I'm just gonna go ahead and say it. If they don't want
that, then they don't want John Collins. I don't think that deals egregious.
Again, his role has changed a lot. It's diminished in land,
a lot that is not obscene money by by any measure. For someone who
is talented offensively as John Collins do. I think that he would be a
great fit for Phoenix. I'd rather see him consolidate into someone who's just more
of a ball handler, whether they're on the wings or a guard position.
At this point, John Gambadoro came out pretty forcefully and did say that the
Sons would not be interested in and John Collins, So I would bet against
that, Like having been a thing, or if it was, it's probably
the fact that it got out of all means that it's dead in the first
place. But this sort of moves on to the other name. That's sort
of banning about the trade room as much Jay Crowder Stein wrote there was a
good bit of buzz that Phoenix was finally making progress on a Crowder deal,
one that would likely land him with one of his most ardent suitors, which
was Milwaukee. Yet no trade materialized, and by weeks end, chattered begun
to resurface that Atlanta remains a potential Crowder destination. It should not be discounted.
I guess it's like sort of a third party team there. I'm just
curious as to the framework of a Milwaukee deal. If Grayson Allen's involved,
like the Suns there, there has to be a third and fourth team there.
The Sons don't need Grayson Allen. Was Milwaukee trading a distant first round
pick, and I believe they can trade at twenty twenty nine first right now,
So like, I wouldn't give that up for Jay Crowder. But if
they were willing to, is that enough? You know that plus Allen to
get Jay crowd would you do if your Phoenix just to you know, arm
yourself with the additional asset, which gets into a really interesting discussion about the
Suns and how urgent lee should they be looking to move Jay Crowder because on
the one hand, you're looking at CP three out right heal injury still and
there's something on that in a moment that I found interesting too. I threw
in here Cam Johnson out recovering from at Niscus injury. Deandrean's looked kind of
better over the past few games, but Cal bridges on fire good minutes from
Cameron Payne, Like how much do you lean on the depth that you have
now? It still feels like you could use from when you're at full strength,
someone who is, by far and away you're sixth best player. And
if you think that's Cameron Payne, all right, Like, then roll forward
and maybe see if you can let this march closer to the trade deadline and
see what materializes. The name I've kept coming back to, and it's not
an original name, but like Eric Gordon, seems to make so much sense
for this team. I also wonder can you get away with not giving a
first round pick for him if you're asking Houston to take on money beyond this
season, You probably can't. But they do have kJ Martin floating around in
there in Houston, and they have like a superfluous number of sort of like
forward types. At this point, Jay Shawn Tait eventually come back. Usman
Gruba has been getting minutes. They have Jabari Smith Junior, who's playing uh,
you know, alongside of Big almost all the time. They have Terry
Tarry Easton, who, yeah, he's six eight, he could play the
three, but he also play the four. Would you be able to move
on for Martin Gordon and like you get a first and then I would say
Crowder and Shammitt from Phoenix, or I guess you could look at it as
maybe if you do want all expiring money here, Dario Sarch is in the
last year of his deal, so you go Sharich Crowder for Gordon and Martin?
Are you giving up? Like, well, I guess you could do
those two salaries straight up for Gordon Sharch and Crowder for Gordon. And then
if you're Houston, are you're trying to get like a pick for crowded Alter
and so maybe you get Gorn without costing yourself first round pick. But maybe
if your Phoenix, you can do twenty twenty three and Scharch and Crowder for
Gordon and Martin, and I don't I don't hate that deal for them.
I think kJ Martin would bring a nice element of rim pressure to that team.
Three point shooting can be iffy if he's not like ultra ride open and
firing off the catch. But I think that's someone that they could make work
on that roster and is a very versatile defender, and I think he gives
you more offense than a Joshua Kogie and sometimes even more than a Tory Craig
sometimes, so like you don't necessarily have to cater towards one side of the
ball as much with him. But what I like about Eric Gordon is to
me, yes, you have CP three, you have Devin Booker, You
can play Gordon at the three in those situations. Would you be reluctant to
do so? In the playoffs, maybe you're gonna be much more likely to
play him though than Payne with Booker and Paul and so if Michael Bridges can
keep this up, especially his quick decision making, maybe you feel more confident
in him being that third ball handler in certain lineups, or maybe you think
it's Cam Johnson, because hey, if Cam Johnson, if it's Michael Bridges
an Eton with Gordon and CP three and Booker, it's because you're sat Cam
Johnson. It's Gordon gonna be better than Cam Johnson certain matchups. Honestly don't
know. That's alnot kind of why though, it might make more sense to
like acquire a guard, because if you know that you're locked in to like
all of those five guys in your closing lineup, that sort of the next
thing that you would need off the bend is just that their ball handler.
It's easier to get that in the guard most of the time. And this
brings me to my point about CP three. Monty Billie has had this quote
over the weekend. Came from Jerald Borgette and it was He's Monty Uli said
this, Chris Paul is not ready to play the way he feels he needs
to be. We feel he's still not there yet. Chris wants to be
out there. You may see him shooting, but there's a ton more to
it than just getting up shots. There are other things and other check marks
that we have to get past. When I see him shooting. I get
excited, but we still have to get him to a certain place. That
sorry was via Asy Central. This one was via Jerald Borgette. Monty Williams
on Chris Paul's nagging sore right heel. I can't really speak to that.
It's probably taking a bit longer than people thought it would because we haven't heard,
we haven't shared like what it is, and it's just how we operate.
I find that hysterical that he's just sort of admitting, Oh, we
don't fucking tell you guys about injuries. It's like the Knick should sort of
come out and do that something like we're not going to be transparent at all,
So fuck that. But like, if this is more serious than we
were led to believe, the Sun's even thought you need like that. I
would think that extra guard juice and the fact that Eric Gordon is someone who
could come in and then play alongside CP three or Booker or both at the
same time. Like I think he can hold up defensively. He's stout enough,
like just kind of like strong enough to hold up as a three in
certain lineups. I think it's an ideal acquisition. And I also think it's
ideal, not because his money comes off the books unless you win a title
this year, but the opportunity cost of getting him shouldn't be more than this
year's first round pick. And if you're the Suns, you have to plan
around the next star becoming available, being on Kevin Durant's wish list, if
and when he decides he wants another trade from Brooklyn. And so if it
only cost you the twenty twenty three first, you can still build workable trade
packages where you're not going to be encumbered were I'm talking this season two,
like getting a first in twenty twenty five, like that's like that could be
sort of on the standard fair. Now, when you're looking at like that,
if you're expecting that's the first round picks the Nets or another team to
glean in a superstar trade, that's not egregious. And so if you're not
giving up more than your twenty twenty three first round pick or even your twenty
twenty three first round pick, or maybe you're able to structure it so you're
not gonna need this, but it's protected for X this year and then it
turns into two seconds, like there's no rollover. So you're unencumbering yourself even
more in future trades. That would seem to make a lot of sense.
There are no other names that could be out there. Maybe they're on a
smaller scale. Maybe Phoenix believes that they can sort of navigate this regular season
stretch because they're a machine and reevaluate at the trade deadline. I'm not against
that either. I think a move needs to be made at some point though,
and I've really liked Eric Gordon for this team for a while. I
don't know that I would give up a first round pick alone on its face
for a half season of Eric Gordon. But if you throw kJ Martin in
there, I do think things would start to get a little more interesting there.
And I've been through other Phoenix on his trade targets, so you can
go check out. That was a segment on both podcasts and YouTube, so
you could look for it. I will say just the name that I would
watch if he's healthy, which I don't know how healthy was going to be.
I thought Cody Martin would be a really good fit in Charlotte, and
he's out right now, so he's not a really good fit. But that
would just be again another name where it's not bankrupting you of your assets.
You're still keeping yourself flexible and asset rich for future deals. But the Jay
Crowder stuff beyond well, I really want to know what the framework of that
Milwaukee trade reportedly was Atlanta for Crowder. I want to know what they're giving
up, Like, are they trading another pick? There are only a select
few picks that they can trade after giving up de Jean Day Murray. Where
they giving up Jo and Johnson in that deal? And is that a team
that like is he someone who intrigues Phoenix there? And there needs to be
other money involved on top of that too, So I'm still very curious where
Jay Crowder ends up. And I guess the Suns a play well enough to
where there doesn't need to be urgency. I guess I'm a little bit surprised
that there's not more urgency though, But also this could just be a matter
and not to you know, use the butt word like eighty times of just
letting the trademarket develop. Closer to December fifteenth, We're almost We're almost,
they are, folks, It's like less than four weeks away. So that
might be what teams or what the Suns are sort of thinking it don't know.
And also Jay Crowder's value is I guess it's not getting any lower.
It's also not getting any higher, Like it's I'm just bottomed out because he's
not with the team, and so I'm still very intrigued to see where he
ends up. And I would be very curious into the framework of that reported
Milwaukee deal. The Knicks, surprise, surprise, were involved in some trade
rumors. They apparently are This is Pert Michael's Scoto of Hoops Hype. They're
reluctant to part with the first round pick to move off Evan four days contract.
He's one guaranteed season after this one, and then the fourth year of
his contracts the team option. He's basically fallen out of the Knicks' rotation and
so you're not boosting his trade value by doing that, and he's owed almost
nineteen million next year. Also this Persecojo, it's believed that Emmanuel Quickly and
Derrick Rose are available as well as Miles McBride. Because of how crowded the
backcourt is in New York. That is, I guess somewhat interesting. I
would if you're moving Derrick Rose is fine He even said he doesn't know what
his place on this team is. Maybe there are teams that could actually use
him to if they think they're gonna be able to get fifteen to twenty minutes
reliably out of him per game for the rest of the season. And his
contract, it's he only had two guaranteed years, so this is you know,
he's functionally an expiring contract. Quickly's interesting. Offense has been all over
the place, defensive effort has been really good this year. Your backcourt rotation
is not so stuffed that it's like, hey, let's get rid of Quickly
and Rose and McBride. And so I'm thinking it's moved one of these guys,
and Rose would make the most sense there. I wonder if the Knicks
would use Quickly if it meant getting off a four days contract. That feels
a little bit just like selling too low on ammanual Quickly there, But I
could see a point given out well Jalen Brunson is played. And also I
don't know if this is trying to gear more of the teams toward Julius Randall,
but it also could help to give RJ. Barrett some more run as
the primary ball handler. With more shooters around him. RJ. Barrett plus
Pench lineups. R J. Barrett plus lineups independent of Julius Randall's basically what
I'm getting at. So maybe that would be the logic behind trading Derek Rose
and Immanuel Quickly And like Myles McBride, I'm just we know the Knicks have
designs on bigger fish than just like sort of this trade where they're clearing out
of rotation spot unless their season just sort of completely takes a nose dive and
they decide like, oh, we're gonna rebuild. Quickly's name is just it
feels like being undervalued by New York or that Quickly is the one that might
want out of New York because it's gonna be extension knowledgeable, just like Obi
after the season and his role has been probably more steadier than ever this year,
but not understanding where you stand to the relative to the rest of the
organization that actually get frustrating. There have been nights where what was the game
it was like a week or two ago at this point where like you just
tips the sides like no, like, yeah, Derek Rose is our guy
to come off the bench first, So it's just the Knicks are really tough
to read with what they would be doing on the trade market. I just
don't to me, maybe Quickly's reputation has been inflated a little bit by playing
in New York. But I do think he's more than just this afterthought.
He's been a better defender, I think than a lot of people will realize.
And if you give him like more space to operate, I think that
he ends up being not a floor general, but that we see his offs
of value ascend and then also sort of level off or be more steady,
more reliable than it has been in New York. Going to dive into I
already did check out the video of the biggest disappointment from every NBA team,
an article published by my co worker Zach Buckley over a Bleach report. He
did the inverse of that every team's biggest surprise for the start of this season.
Let's go through those trying to do this very quickly and see what again
live reaction haven't seen this yet, and just see what he came up with,
what we agree, what we disagree with, and let's just generally go
off. Okay, we are onto the Atlanta Hawks winning with defense. I
would say that that's probably a fair surprise as well. I think when you
look at the roster, you might expect them to skew towards offense. They've
only been sixteenth in point score per possession, though a lot of that has
been just really bad shooting. Don't get to the foul line their eighth and
defense meanwhile, it might be a little bit of shooting luck caked in.
This is a team that doesn't force turnovers but also fouls a lot. But
still, yeah count me. Look, they have their point differentials like only
plus point seven prone hundred possessions, but top eight. I thought their offense
still would have performed their defense at my point, even after the Kevin Herder
trading him and then acquiring Jante Murray Boston Celtic Sam Houser's ascension from afterthought to
asset us people in Boston, they are not surprised by this. But he
is just a capslock bold text Italic shooter, and he's got real motion to
him as well. So definitely their most I guess performer that you would have
not definitely predicted to stand out that did Brooklynnett's Edmund Sumner the difference maker.
Yeah, look, He's had some pretty rough games where I thought he was
dribbling too much. But this guy is comfortable getting out transition, putting the
ball in his hand, attacking in the half court. I'm not sure that
you would have thought he needed to be such a critical part of the Nets
rotation this year either. Some injuries definitely opened the door for that. But
he's been really good and just a high energy player for them because we moved
around a lot on the defensive end as well. The Seon Hornets Dennis Smith
J're making good things happen. Yeah, it's like the defense Dennis Smith Junior
last time I checked, was like in the top five or seven of the
elections per game. He's been setting up the offense really well. This is
by far not just the biggest surprise in the Hornets, but it's, you
know, the one of the He's one of the biggest surprise in the NBA.
He said that he was going to consider an NFL career just just a
few months before, so just everything better finishing at the rim for him and
also lowering his turnover rate. The Chicago Bulls, Goran Dragas got his groove
back. It's almost like the MAVs wanting to sign him and play every third
day was one of the dumbest things that you heard over the offseason, because
that's in fact what it was. It's uncomfortable how much the Bulls have needed
Goran Dragets this year, but it's also just like giving him a steadying as
a steadying presence, someone who's been able to do things to the ball in
his hand but also play well off others a little bit. Uh, it
feels like Gorn Drags excuse me, is an impact player once more after sort
of the past two years of hovering between and then certainly last year when he
just doesn't even really play is buried in Toronto for most of the season.
So just like the reports there I guess, or did he report I can't
remember, but I'm shocked at how well he's playing. But it's still equally
shocked at the MAVs wanted to sign him only to play like five minutes a
game or every third days. Just an age thirty six year old who's really
putting together some of my sufficiency in like sub twenty minutes a night. But
that's fine. Cleveland Cavaliers Dean Wade making a leap this is This is still
surprising. I think he's immerged, just like the definitive. Yeah, we
need to he would have to close when he's healthy. He's going to close
it the three for us, and that's how it should be. I thought
maybe Isaaca Coro, who's been a disaster on offense, and then maybe even
Jenny Osman or Charasi Vert would work their way into that conversation or we'd be
let's think it's reclamoring for the Cavs to make a trade more urgently than we
have. They've had some just iffy moments of late, but this guy is
twenty five and he's just sort of everywhere he needs to be on defense,
knocking down his threes. Dallas Maverick Spencer to what he doesn't miss it from
distance their biggest surprise. Yeah, I wrote off, not didn't write off,
but I wrote off Spencer to be shooting as just sort of this late
season anomaly with the Mavericks. He's tantalized with efficient outside shooting in the asked
only to see it regress. He's kept it up this year. This is
just like you know, someone who's a career thirty two point two percent shooter,
and now he's at forty five point nine percent and Perbuckly, that is
wild. Will he keep it up, We'll have to see. The Mavericks
certainly need him too, because they don't have a ton of other options to
just reliably score. Let forget about dribbling. Even though he's one of the
two most important ball handlers on the roster, they just don't have a ton
of people who can consistently stretch the floor at the moment, like we've seen
maxic Cleland go through some rough stretches Diddal Forreggie Bullock and also Tim Hardaway Hardaway
Junior as well. So he's been hyper important, definitely out for my expectation.
Deveren his bones highlands outside the arc touch I'm gonna disagree here. He
was such a good shooter last season, Mike off the dribble as a spot
up guy. There was just some really good live dribble passing from him as
well. So and I've actually been disappointed in some of the decisions he's made
inside the arc this year, and he's been I feel like almost worst defensively,
or maybe I'm just more keyed in onto his flaws. I don't have
to say just like Christian Brown playing a role on this team would be most
surprising for me, or maybe even the Nuggets being so bad protecting the basket
this year, just because it's not Nicolea Yoki's fault, but they're allowing over
seventy percent over a seventy percent conversion rate at the rim. Yes, Is
Yoki's responsible for that because you have to bring him up so high for him
to work defensively, Yes, But I thought they just had enough talent behind
him to where that wasn't going to be as huge of an issue. So
Bone's been great, But I'm not really surprised. I mean, whatever number
even's Michael Porter Jr. Okay, he was shooting it at the store clipped
from three for a while. That doesn't surprise me. Detroit Pistons the rookies
readiness, Yeah, I think that's fair. John and During specifically, whatever
you thought of Jay and Ivy, We're gonna get to see more run with
him independent of Kade now that kid's dealing with that shin injury. But I've
been really impressed with Joel and Durran just looks ready to sort of make an
impact, changing shots around the basket and just looks like he is a going
to be like a dominant finisher when he gets going downhill and if teammates could
find him. So I have been from what i've scene of Jones during just
absolutely blown away. And it's not it doesn't look like somebody's just sort of
capitalizing on his physical tools, but that there's actual feel there was Jay and
Ivy. I still just want to see how him and Kate are gonna work
out long term. But I think he's been really good. When you look
at him, I see people Comparemon and John Morant. I see the vision
sometimes with him as a passer and some of the things he does after he
leaves his feet. So I get it. That was a good one.
Buck Cold and Stay Worris Stephen Curry posting several career marks. I would probably
say the well, so we have to it's positive surprises, which why dever
Nuggets room protection wouldn't have worked. The Christian Brown roll would still bid it
for me. That kind of has to be good. Cold State. I
would say Anthony Lamb being like, you know, the seventh most important player
in their rotation to date this season was probably a surprise, but he's been
dominant, like he's gonna third thirty five by the end of this year.
It's his age thirty four campaign, and he's just absolutely annihilating defenses. And
the Warriors are killing opponents when he's on the floor. Surprise, surprise,
they're getting trucked when he's off. He belongs to the MPP discussion. To
be this good at age thirty four, I think that's even by his standards,
it's been surprising Houston rockets the often of output of defensive specialists. Chari
Eason, Yeah, for sure, he's gonna be a three point shooting and
then some like some really just hit some really tough layups and nice runners.
He's in great Usman Gruba shooting eighty seven plus percent from three, a whopping
seven of eight, making some really nice passes. We've seen him put the
ball on the floor, seems to be processing things at a higher speed.
So I think you could absolutely go this route for them. That was a
fantastic pick. Buckley the Yeah, this was a great one. Indiana Pacers
elite offense. Yeah, I just think you looked at the roster and thought
they were more on the inexperienced side that it was. Oh Okay, this
team was just naturally gonna be bad, and instead they're excuse me, nine
and six, and they have the ninth best offense, pumping in one hundred
and fourteen point seven points per one hundred possessions. They're really good offensive rebounding
team. Then you turn the ball over a lot, they get the line
a good amount. Two They also they're out and transition a bunch. I
believe they are out and transition the second most of any team in the league.
So they played pretty fast their seventh and average offensive possession time. I
know that because I just something about it. Yeah, I didn't see this
coming, you could. I thought Albert was gonna be good. But Benned
Nick Mathren averaging over nineteen points a game on sixty plus true shooting. He's
just been absolutely great, like with the ball in his hands, without the
ball in his hands. So yeah, that's definitely been their biggest surprise.
Maybe some of the stuff Miles Turners did, but he's only been healthy a
short time. The Clippers John Wall looks like John Waugh, sure, I
think, yeah, But he's been like one of the worst shooters in the
league this year from mid range and three point range maybe has to be expected.
The on ball speed is still intact, though, so I think that's
fair. And look, let's let's be honest, we're kind of hard up
for good surprises and Clippers land this year. Their performance has normalized recently,
and their defense has been dominant, And that might be the other thing that
I know that they're built to defend, but like they are second in points
allowed per possession, and they don't force turnovers, they don't fail. I
guess you would expect that they're not like super hyper aggressive. They're just blanketing.
And then you have a lot of old and slower wings or interchangeable guys
the front court. But it's just it's working for them. And so I
would say second in defense given how much time KWHI Leonard is myths, and
then also given how reliant they are on a John Wall Reggie Jackson, that's
been a bigger surprise to me. The Lakers, Lonnie Walker the fourth making
good on his potential? Is it that? Is it Austin Reeves? Is
it Russ kind of looking at home off the bench? I think could be
any of these things. Lonnie Walker the fourth is a good one, though
I will say I wrote about this. I was flabbergasted how well he's fitting
to the larger context of the offense, where it's like, yeah, he
can do his on ball stuff, but he's been moving really well without the
ball too, and I just viewed him as someone wouldn't be able to do
that, especially within the confined spaces of the Lakers offense. Menvis grisly,
he's Desmond's being shot creation. I think this is the answer, because we
know how good Desmond Band was from last year, but now he's taking even
more of his baskets are going on assisted, and we are someone who's like,
I think he's tripled or doubled the number of picking rolls that he's running
per game or something just an absurd like that. So he's took a rookie
to sophomore leap and then made another leap on top of that, like we
don't. You don't normally see two gargage Wan leaps consecutively from players who like
weren't build as stars to begin with. He was his rookie season, he
was this modestly bordering, unsparingly used specialty shooter, and now he's the grizzlies
second most important half court creator. He's out right now, but like that
is just not a transition I ever saw coming shout out to Desmond Bay.
He's fantastic. Miami Heat, Max Shru's taking another leap. I think you
have to go with this one just because the Heat have been I guess wildly
disappointing. Overall, half court offense is kind of a mess. They definitely
miss PG. Tucker Bam is not taking a step on offense. Lowry's been
touching go. I know they've dealt with some injuries and absences this season.
Victor Oldiepo hasn't even played yet. I think he can maybe also go as
Tyler Hero sort of impressed, Like maybe his numbers have come down a little
bit, but he's been Everyone thought he was going to transition to more of
like sort of this off ball role. He's not as focused on passing year,
but he's really he's been slinging it for a lot. Maybe that's just
not surprising to you after watching him his entire career, but he's been like
kind of on fire for most of the season off the dribble. But like
the Heat, as that Buckey wrote, they're like a worse version of last
season squads that they're not really impacting, they're not really shocking or along anybody
Walkee Bucks Javon carter understanding the assignment. Is that a surprise? I guess
like the way he's playing is just very Javonne Cartery. But this is another
team that's sort of hard up for surprises because they are who we expected them
to be, and that's pretty dominant. Even though they've had they've they've lost
a few games that might make you, you know, get your attention.
Then Jannis has been struggling from the fallin sub sixty percent. There been struggling
from me outside as well. Shooting like under thirty percent from mid range,
under thirty percent on three has not looked great. I think what I would
also go with is that there this is surprising to me that they are such
so good at defending both the rim and the three point line right now,
like we just don't they have They're the third best protecting team in the league,
and then they're limiting the amount of shots that their opponents are taking from
three this year their fourth So there, when you're looking at volume, let's
do it this way. They ranking the top five of both a volume allowed
both at the rim and from the three point line. That is really really
hard to do. And if I had to guess, they're the only team
that's doing it right now, No, Boston, Boston, Milwaukee, which
is just funny because Boston's defense without Robert Williams a third, maybe because they're
not forcing as many turnovers, it has pulled back a bit. But I
think that's my bigger surprise Forlwaukee because I look at Jevon Carter, him playing
such a big role. I get it, but we've seen him do this
before. It's just that he didn't do it in Brooklyn. He did it
for a time in Phoenix. So I'm gonna go with the how the Bucks
were like all of a sudden, just like limiting three point attempts when they
were giving those up readily for so long. Minnesota, timber Mostry and Princess
Sizzling slash line. I think that's fair. There's a team that's like,
probably hasn't too many other surprises if you wanted to go with some of the
playoff Jellen Noelle or even Jordan McLoughlin at points, but now we're sort of
reaching. John Well cooled off after a pretty hot start, So I think
this is the answer. And Tory Prince kind of showed signs of life last
year, and now you're talking about someone who's going for over forty two percent
of his threes when that had sort of been dragged down a bit in previous
levels. At his Buckley notes, he's like kind of slashing fifty forty ninety
at the moment. Not a huge free throw guy in terms of volume,
we're shooting over nine there. This is the He's really critical to their spacing
because that's the team that still needs it is figuring themselves out on the offensive
end. Pelicans Trey Murphy's emergence for New Orleans. Yeah, I think people
sort of saw flashes of this last season, but he's outplayed Herb Jones at
this point. I'm not sure that a lot of people expected that to happen,
So I would think that's definitely a surprise. And he's shown everything from
just motion shooting, to being able to defend up and down the positional spectrum
to even just sort of having like some quick decision making with the ball on
his hands. So I think za's definitely it. There're certainly not a rosy
or surprise unless you want to focus on Jose Alvarado. I guess you could
go there, New York Knicks, Tims Trucks, the top a rattel.
He first busted out against the Sixers a while ago when there was no Embiid,
no hard and the Knicks were down. If you able to come back.
The numbers on that lineup are not great. But he has gone to
it a little or I would say a lot more often because it was relative
to never going to it. That's probably the biggest surprise that he's gone there.
I mean, because it's certainly not he hasn't staggered Randall and RJ Barrett
enough. I think John Brunts has been fantastic, But did you really expect
that you could go with RJ Barrett's finishing. He's been terrible by it.
If you look at his go back, look at r J Barrett his first
five games, that his next seven, and then his last five. Just
such a roller coaster this year. But if he wanted to focus on his
finishing, which is now dropped, it was up for a second. So
that really can't be it now that I think about it. So what is
the what is the pleasant surprise for the knicks Manuel Quickly's defense. I think
he just looks like he's been like one of their feistiest or v fistiest perimeter
defender that they've had this year. So do you go ahead? Maybe some
Cam's reddish emergence too. He's played some really hyper engaged minutes when he's been
given the opportunity for them. I think I would lean more swords to one
of those two just because Tims hasn't I would say, consistently tried to the
top end Randall lineup. That's so I would slightly disagree there. I did
that. It wasn't good for a laugh, Oklahoma, said he shaygold Stosander
joined the MVP race. I think you can go with Alexei pokers Chefsky being
so good this year. But yeah, Shay Goosander, as we recorded this
has been a top ten player. He was fifth in my last MVP ladder.
No one predicted that twenty percent of the way through the season. As
high as anyone was on Sander, I thought I was pretty high. No
one predicted that. That's easy. He's just been mind meltingly brilliant is the
only way to describe it. And the thunder of winning the minutes he's on
the court. By the way, Orlando Magic bow balls breakout. Yeah,
there's people who are just like, why do we need Victor win b Nama
win bow balls already in the league. His value when you look at his
ball skills, it's just sort of a wing type on offense. He's giving
you some defensive disruption as well, but it looks really fluid and just like
it's coming together this season, and some of the layups he can finish from
like it feels like eighteen feet out and he's just able to finger roll it
in. He's been great, and yeah, I thought, I guess I
thought his career was over, but they resigned him. It was to an
Afterthorp deal, and I didn't think there's gonna be a pathway to minutes for
him, and like injuries have sort of carved out away. I don't think
we ever should have banked on Jonathan Isaac being available, like Palaman Carol missing
some time. But I'm just like, immediately usurping Mobamba in the rotation.
Yeah, easy, And he's been great for Orlando. Philadephi seventy six ers
dominant defense. I'm going to say yes because they fucking sucked in transition to
start the year, and their numbers haven't even all the way rebounded. But
you look at how injured they've been, Joel, we missed sometime and he's
about to miss more time. And then you were playing with James Harden a
bunch. Maxie feels like he has regressed on the defensive end since his rookie
season. We even since last year. Yes, you did at PJ.
Tucker, you have the anti Melt and you have Daniel House. But I
think you just look at the names on this roster and it's it's like,
okay, well Harden and beat Maxie. That's going to be an offensive Enny.
No. I mean, the Sixers have been wildly uninventive on the offensive
end, but they're fourth now in points allowed per possession on defense. They're
also just like they're forcing a ship ton of turnovers. And I think you
look at the personnel. Tucker Melton even like Maxie being there, Daniel House
having forgotten about him, but many minutes that Paul read gets, plus Joel
Embid, I guess we should have seen it. But they're in the top
seven of both opponent effective field goal percentage and turnovers forced. That's big for
them. So I do think that's been a surprise. I don't really know
that you could look at a player singular player though and think otherwise. Though
maybe Joel Embiid just putting up like Will Chamberlain like numbers when he came back
from the first injury, Phoenix Sons, michaelbrid just going berserk. I yes,
so it's a surprise because I kind of thought like and we had talked
about on the podcast, and all of a sudden he starts exploding immediately afterwards,
not him settling down, running a ton of picking rolls, which people
wondered if he could do. He is just super aggressive, making decisions so
quick on the ball, not just in terms of moving it, but now
actually looking to school, firing off threes, get moving with the ball in
his hands, and actually putting pressure on the defense, maybe not getting all
the way the basket, but putting the defenses in rotation or forcing them to
react. That's a big surprise. I think you get to a point where,
oh, year, where was it five of Mchael Bridges, and it's
just like, oh, he's going to be he might be your like fifth
best offensive player, but no, there've been nights now, especially for Chris
Paul out he's propped up the help prop up the Suns of their second best
offensive player. I will say, I feel like the bigger surprise for me
has been just the overall depth, the fact that they've been able to navigate
no j Crowder, no Chris Paul, cam Johnson also getting injured, and
like Tory Craig is stepping up Jock Landale like, oh no, he didn't
play the other night, but he's also just giving you really solid minutes.
But we're gonna give a look to Bismack Biyama, which Wayne Rights come in
and he's really tough to get by. On defense, we've gotten some really
big minutes from Damian Leo will throw Joshua Kogi in there to try and juice
up our stopping power. Their depth is surprising more than anything. I thought
they were a very top heavy team, and I think the talent discrepancy still
implies that, but they're deeper than advertised. It turns out Poland Trailblazers the
top ten defensive I mean, yeah, all things Blazers there. On the
defense, they've played small when they play big with Nurkis at the five.
Obviously, they've just been able to make things happen, and they are currently
as we record this, they have phone outside the top ten. They are
top eleven, but that's still higher than I would have pegged them. For
opponent they are twentieth and opponent affective field goal percentage, but they don't force
turnovers a ton. They're also not fouling a ton. They do a pretty
good job on the defensive glass. I think they just have a lot of
really high IQ guys. When you look at defensively, Josh Hart, Jeremy
Grant, Nurkis knows how to play in the coverage that you throw him in.
I think Anfrey Simon's Damian Lillard both been better this year. Not to
say they've been the driving force behind the defense, but I think they've both
been better, and Dame has been I think he's still out. I don't
think he returned. He was out for one or two weeks. I think
it certainly helps, like giving the some of the different looks with having Watford
and Justice Swinslow and Drew u Banks, like all of those guys have been
able to give him good varying minutes in the front court. I'm absolutely floor
as the defensive perform it. If you were told me Gabrol eleventh sixteen games
into the season and Gary Payton the second still hadn't played, I would have
just told you that you were lying to me. I probably would have said
some more choice words, like you were a fucking idiot. Z Acrimino.
Kings Kevin Hrder can't miss. Yeah, this is just like he is,
like an effective field goal percentage of a million on off the dribble looks right
now. I think that's a fair surprise. Is it could also be Darren
Fox and during all NBA territory. Could it also be just that the Kings
are second overall in point score possession. Maybe you're not too shocked by that
when you look at the talent on this roster, but like second point scorper
was the second, like only behind Boston. Boston being one in itself is
kind of disarming. So there, and the Kings have the top effective field
goal percentage in the league. They don't turn the ball over either, getting
to the line of bunch. I think the macro of their offense is most
surprising. Maybe it shouldn't be because they were built to score with the bonus
and Fox and Monk and Herder Barnes coming around a little bit now, and
then Kagan Murray's been solid for them. So yeah, I guess Herd has
been the most surprising player unless you just kind of thought darreon Fox was what
he was and that was a human roller coaster and wasn't going to enter sure
fire all star slash potential All NBA territory. But yeah, I fade this
one too, and it's probably pretty actur. I think either or there Santatonto's
first trade, Jones taking it all in stride. Maybe maybe this is just
like he is clearly their best game manager. Someone who doesn't turn the ball
over is going to give you a steady number of assists. It hits some
nice midrane jumpers. I'm gonna go with Devin Missel though he's not necessarily slowing
down and orchestrating the entire offense, but he's been one of the most efficient
pick and roll scorers in the entire MBA. That's not that's like, I'm
not lying to you. He was averaging last time I checked, he was
like averaging one point one two points per possession as a pick and roll ball
handler, which is ridiculously high. That has surprised me more than Trey Jones,
who was sort of that studying presence last year as well. Toronto Raptors
Pasco scacom chasing second Most Improved Player award. This is spicy buck. Is
he in the conversation for that, man? I don't know if he's in
the conversation for a second for say, second most Improved Player award, And
the fact that he's injured, like that's not going to help whatever case he's
making, whether it's for MVP just by virtue of volume, but the spiciness
year as the Raptors are just so unbelievably banged up. I mean, you're
looking at him, he's like, yeah, I don't I don't know this
is But who's again, who's the bigger surprise that I'm trying to figure this
out in real time? Pascal Siakam twenty four point eight point seven point seven
assists. Yeah, okay, hitting fifty one point nine percent of his twos.
His three point volume is is about the same. So is this percentage?
Yeah? I think I think that's the one, unless you wanted to
go with like o Gianna Nobi a little bit, or is it Christian Coloco
coming in and blocking everything known to man? Even that's probably not a surprising
I think you can also say if if the season ended today, would Pascal
Siakom be one of the top ten MVP candidates and would you have predicted that?
That might be the even bigger surprise here. But that's yeah, whoa
man, buck, I didn't see you phrasing it like that. Love it
you touch has everything? Yeah, looks the first in the West. They
have the fourth best offense in the league, their fourth in offensive rebounding rate.
They turn the ball over a lot, they don't get to the line,
ever, their defense is twenty fourth, It doesn't matter. They have
a positive point. They have the seventh biggest net rating in the league right
now. Lowry market In just looks great. Looks like an all star,
hitting a great deal of shots, throwing some nice passes. Colin Sexton improving
his shot selection to cut out on some of those. It still has a
lot of junkie twos, but not taking as many pull up jumpers, and
they've spaced the floor for him to get to the rim. More. Jordan
Clarkson just deciding to turn into like a really good passer. Now, Mike
Conley going from oh financial albatroz when you look at his contract to could the
Mavericks trade for him already? Just like Molie Beasley, just like never missing
from three and taking them in droves. Rocker Castler coming in and just like
looking not as you know, slow as I thought he would on defense,
but also grasping NBA defense, I think better than I thought he was going
to Kelly Olynnock sort of reinventing his stock here. This team has been deep,
it's been fun there. First in the West, eighteen games in the
season, first in the West, how are they not the biggest surprise in
the entire league? And then finally we have the Washington Wizards. Jordan Goodwins
seizing his moment. Man did not see this one coming, Like, yeah,
that's yeah. I think that's paved the way with Corey Christopher's injuries for
sure. And then they don't they apparently don't want to play. There's the
lawn right injury and they definitely don't want to play. Johnny Davis. If
you are looking for a spicier surprise here, I think, look, Buck
kind of hits it. On the head in that I don't know that they're
necessarily would be one. There's not one that stand out. It's before his
ankle injury, the Rocket, the Rockets, the Wizards kind of sided that,
Hey, Ruya, Chamora is going to be just like the vessel through
which we funnel all of our second unit offense. That probably surprised me a
little bit. The other thing, and I think I think the numbers may
have normalized too much for this to hold. But like Kris stops porzingis in,
the post was working at one point and it still is. Yeah,
I might go with Christops's post play hurting fifty four point five percent on post
ups that the seventy seventh percent tile efficiency never been his strong suits. That
would be my actual surprise. If you want to go with Jordan Goodwin,
that's fine. That's gonna do it for this one. Like I said,
we're going to have our one question for every Eastern Conference team coming out this
week, and there will probably be another episode or two faked in as well.
Please remember, if you've made it this far, hit that sub button
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follow us in the social media channel's links are on the screen or panels are
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and as always I leave the shout out third one, the only,
the legendary Frank Nila Keena