What is krack a acting Hardwoodknocks the listeners, I am dan Fa Valley coming
at you, fueled as always by caffee and plots of pop punk and Hardwood
Knocks. Adam is here for this episode. We dive into one of our
trademark mail bags. Had a ton of questions and all of them were spectacular,
So thank you. Keep those questions coming. You can always respond to
obviously the solicitation on Twitter at Hardwood Knox or at NBA Underscore Math, but
send questions in even if we haven't sent out a tweet for it. Since
we do do these weekly mail bags, we can store it for a different
time at FROMO zero nine you can add him or d m him. I'm
at Dana Valley fav a lle And before we get started. As I stumbled
through this, please remember to rate, review, and subscribe to hardwooknoxs ever
we get your podcast. If this is your first time listening to us for
whatever reason, please consider throwing us that permit subscription. We cover the entire
league at large, and we're pretty good at doing so. In my completely
unbiased, unskewed opinion, follow us on Twitter. I already mentioned it at
Hardwoknox. We're on YouTube as well. Hit that subscribe button YouTube dot com
s or a hardwo Knox will be right there and follow us on Instagram at
Hardwood Underscore Knox. Now let's dive into this mailbag. I think we had
like fifteen questions deepest time we got we got through a lot of them,
might have even been more than fifteen questions. Well, let's get through this
mailbag. Hello everyone, and welcome to the latest episode of Hardwood Knocks.
This is Adam from well Here with my fantastic co host Dan Favalley, coming
at you with our latest mailbag episode as we move a little bit deeper into
this twenty twenty one twenty two NBA season that has already produced a number of
compelling storylines and a number of twists and turns, and we're going to be
diving into those as soon as we find out. How Dan's doing today.
I am fantabulous. I'm fueled as usual by caffeine, lots of pop punk,
and of course the Hardwoodknox podcast. So how could I be doing anything
but grand? How are you doing? I'm good? I just these days
I just imagine that you're just like playing a constant bing bong in your head,
like whenever you're having a convert station, like you just keep hearing that
sound pop up again and again. Is that pretty accurate? Uh, it's
fairly accurate. It said, I keep hearing the bearded guy like doing r
like but like motor boats at whatever the hell he was doing during That is
the one that stuck with me the most. So uh, look, it's
a good time to be even a deadly disenchanted Knicks fan. They have the
Knicks have the best offense in the league as we record this number one in
point score possession about them, apples, it's pretty solid. I mean this
this team is super fun, seems good that the offense seems really good.
I'm I'm probably not doing quite as well as you because I have no reason
to actually cheer for the Knicks. But all is well. Yeah yeah,
yeah, yeah, I know, you know the same Tray Young who is
adjusting better than other stars are adjusting to the free throw rule changes. Just
putting that out there. Offense has been pretty spotty though, like it's been
bad, there's like a leeway there. But the Nets have been more disappointing
than Atlanta by Park. It does. It does feel like the source of
those half court frustrations, though, are more the supporting cast than Trey himself.
Though, because he has up to his two point efficiency, he's still
finding ways to get to the line. He's cutting back on his turnovers,
he's a little more engaged on defense. It feels like he has been the
huge bright spot for Atlanta, whereas a lot of the young role players who
were supposed to, if not take step forwards, at least continue down the
paths that they started during last year's Eastern Conference Finals run have not progressed as
expected. Yeah. Look, I think the team in general will start finishing
better at the rim, and they'll probably hit more of their threes. I
think they're Yeah, they're at sub thirty three percent on above the break three
point shooting. All that's down league wide this year. So we'll see the
average on above the break threes is thirty three point two percent right now,
So they're actually not that bad compared New Look. You know I feel about
the how if if you're panicking about the Hawks right now, just stop,
just go look up the definition of small sample size. Listened to the previous
episode, which Adam mentioned before, we start recording where I called it a
truth that the Atlanta Hawks will finish with the second best record in the Eastern
Conference. Probably not so spicy after watching how the nets at the Bucks have
played. But Milwaukee just is not healthy. I can't bring myself to panic
about that. I know that they're they've been so bad. But Dante DiVincenzo,
Brook Lopez and Drew Holiday and yes, I know Devincenzo hasn't played at
all. That's the point. They've all played a combined total seventy one minutes
this season. Come talk to me when that number grows a little bit.
Exactly. I have no reason to doubt this Bucks team, which has the
benefit of continuity following a title run. There's no reason to doubt this team
right now. We did not have any questions about the Bucks or the Hawks
for this mailbag, though, which normally drops on Monday's. Past tweks,
it's come on Tuesdays because of scheduling conflicts with myself and also Adam. It'll
probably get back to Monday's eventually. We assume who knows, We do whatever
the hell we want around here, but we do publish a mailbag a week
and the first question that we're gonna get to comes from Jacob Bourne. He
asked, is the Knicks five and one start a trick or treat? And
they could be six and one by the time you're listening to this or five
and two? But based off me just scoreboard watching right now says we're recording
this during games, I'm going to predict six in one. But Adam,
is the Nix's start a trick or a treat? I think it's more of
a treat. You know, obviously they're not gonna keep playing at like a
seventy win pace or whatever. Are you sure? No, absolutely not.
I've learned a long time ago not to be sure about anything whatsoever. But
it does feel like, you know, you touched on it already. Just
how good this offense has been, and we have reason to believe see last
year, that the defense is only going to improve. This team is healthy,
it's deeper. Julius Randall has continued to be a quality offensive hub.
RJ. Barrett seems to be taking strides in the right direction. We've had
a lot of people commenting on the NBA math TPA charts and pointing out that
RJ. Barrett is in exactly where you don't want to be, and then
citing like the defensive field goal percentage aloud when he's guarding people. First of
all, that status bogus, don't worry about it, but second of all,
like the DPS stuff like it does undersell what he's doing a little bit
because he is taking on difficult assignments and all that. So he's been totally
fine. And it feels like if you go top to bottom on this roster,
like Derrick Rose has been really effective on offense, Kemba Walker looks at
least somewhat resurgent, Mitchell Robinson is healthy. Just peace after piece is clicking,
and if all of them come together, especially with improved versions of Obi
Toppin and a version of Emmanuel Quickly who might eventually make a shot, this
team has a lot of juice. I have no reason to doubt that this
is a playoff lock closer to a legitimate contender than not. There is so
defensive field goal percentage when you're not talking about the rim, there's obviously a
lot of noise. Bogus feels like a stretch, But I think what you
said hits now on the head is even if it's not bogus. The scope
of the assignments that he's covering matters in this situation. He's like, but
I mean it is bogus though, because we have so much control of it's
better to force a pass than to have a shot go up against you in
most situations, Like, it's not accounting for the quality of the shot contests,
Like that's one of those stats where if you're citing it, it's either
agenda driven or you don't know any better, and neither of those is a
good thing. The thing that I think this team is more real than not.
Are they the best offense in the league. I don't know, And
I think what's been interesting, you do know, you do know what's been
interesting is that I don't know that they've done this because anyone, I mean
has Derek Roe has been their most consistent player this season. They've done it
because they have so many options, which is good. I don't think this
is a bad thing that if one's not working, they have all these other
guys that are gonna be able to create their own shots or make shots,
which is something they didn't have last year. Even RJ. Barrett included,
we have a question. I'll find it about his most improved Player case,
which is, you know, it's gonna be tough for him to win it,
I think because his offensive role is kind of so inconsistent. That works
for this team though, And so that question came from one and I'm gonna
just looping into this as can anyone compete with RJ. Barrett for most improved
Player? I think yes, I'll finish with that. It's the defense needs
to pick up. And like the net rating swings for their starting lineups are
all over the place, They've been not great defensively with those guys. I
think that speaks to the level of competition, how they're built. You have
Mitch Robinson and you know, Julius Rynold's got I think he's legitimately good on
defense. R J. Barrett's legitimately good on defense. I don't know how
much better this team is built to get defensively, though, and that would
be just something to monitor. Now. I don't think it matters even a
little bit if you're gonna have the best offense in the MBA if you're not
elite defensively, and I think, look, you look at just if you
dig into their their defensive you know, just just stats like, there's really
nothing that's a huge outlier. There's opponents are probably gonna start shooting better on
above the break threes against them, But they also had a good three point
defense last year, so maybe there's something there. It's also not we just
talked about how the league averages down so much to be tenth an opponent above
the break free throw percentage, that's not this huge outlier, even if you're
not responsible for it. I'm just curious to see, you know, as
where things stand now and you're saying that this team is the best offense in
the league nineteenth in defense. I don't want to say that they're ceiling.
I'm just curious whether they have the jet fuel without making a move to go
even higher. But I don't think there should be a question that this team
is more real than not for anything. And if anything, I'm a little
bit more impressed given how much relatively when you just dig into the data,
how much the starting lineup has struggled against other units. I'm actually pleasantly surprised
that they're not worse on the defensive end. You got rid of Reggie Bullock,
who is your most important offender. Yes, you've Mitchell Robinson coming back,
like this team isn't built to be elite defensively and it really leaned into
offense. Kemba Walker will always try harder than you think on defense. That
doesn't mean that he's good. Evan Fourniers like bad to whatever on that end,
and you're going to be playing other guys where you just don't have a
ton of real wings on this roster. And even if Julius Randall's good,
which I think he is, Mitchell Robinson's good, you're always gonna be I
think vulnerable, especially when it comes to defending the perimeter a little bit.
Again, you look at the opponent three point shooting percentage right now, it
doesn't matter. I'm just curious what the defensive ceiling on this team is.
To the question about RJ. Barrett being a most improved player, I think
there's probably a little bit less hesitation when he's working off the dribble than there
was last year. I'm just curious whether he'll have and we've seen how much
percentages and averages can swing in a game right now. This season, he
had that God I can't even remember the team, but he had the monstrous
performance over the week oh my god, I forget the team, but like
his his points per game average skyrocketed, and now of a sudden, he's
gone from shooting under thirty three percent on threes to like thirty eight point nine
percent. It's like we're still so early. And while I think he'll be
mentioned in the discussion, I think you're going to gravitate more towards people that
have these just larger roles where it's a tyler hero. I want to steer
clear from from second year players totally, So maybe I won't go like looking
at that Rob but even at Desmond Baine, who's a sophomore, might have
just a bigger case than Barrett. So I think maybe he if people really
dig into the I don't even know if it's defensive improvement, but the defensive
role that he plays this season, he should be at least mentioned if he
continues to keep this up at both ends. But I don't know if he's
going to have the jet fuel to be like a top three I don't think
he's even going to get mentioned. Like even after thirty five points against the
New Orleans Pelicans without brandon Ingram and they almost didn't win by the zombie New
Orleans Pelicans, Like, he's still averaging only seventeen point two points per game,
which is less than last year. I don't think there's any doubt that
RJ. Barrett is an improved basketball player. But being an improved basketball player
is not what wins you the most Improved Player award because you need statistical leaps
and he is not set up in a role on this next team that is
going on by design, absolutely, but he's not set up in a role
that's conducive to a massive points per game leap. He's not going to average
twenty points a game on this team. There are too many scoring options.
It's not how they're build. So I mean, I think you can throw
out a dozen candidates who are more likely to finish in the top three in
the Most Improved Player balloting down the road, Like right now, I would
think the easy favorite is Miles Bridges, who just looks dominant for the Charlotte
Hornets, has doubled his scoring average, almost touching twenty five points a game.
Right now, you could throw out Harrison Barnes. Is it sustainable.
Probably not, But if we're just talking about these early season samples, what
he's done in year ten is remarkable, John Morant making the superstar leap like
I think they are, just there are so many candidates that Barrette just isn't
set up to compete in that race, even if he is a better basketball
player, And I cannot emphasize that enough. That he continues to grow on
both ends and he's going to be more and more valuable to this Knicks team
as this Knicks team continues to get better, it's just not going to lead
to that kind of award consideration. And again it's by design relative to the
field last year and what voters look for. So I'm not saying that this
would be right if RJ gets the chef completely this year, but his case
as a sophomore is going to end up being stronger than it will be this
year for most improved play, I would agree with that. Let's look these
two questions in together because this one it's it's almost phrased like a joke,
but I feel like it. I mean, it feels like it bears asking.
But always Winter asked why is Yoki so good at basketball? And then
long time listener mirslov shook ass the Denver Nuggets have the second best net rating
for a starting five in the league. With Jamal Murray injured and mpj's forty
percent true shooting, Is this six game start by Nicole yokis better than the
one last year? Someone responded. Dussan responded, if anyone's interested, Yokich
is plus eighty in his first six games. Nuggets are plus twenty seven.
Nuggets without yokajer minus fifty three. The the extent to which Nikole Yoka just
had to carry this offense, even without Jamal Murray has been borderline harrowing,
especially when you look at how good Will Barton has been. Mpj's offensive performance
was scarier than anything I saw on Halloween weekend. So far this season,
he just he cannot throw the proverbial beach ball in the ocean from the beach.
Nothing is working. The shots look good until they leave his hands,
and that's just kind of been the story for a lot of the offensive pieces
in general, and it has forced Yokich into taking on even more of a
burden, though not necessarily as a scorer, where he's just like trying to
get guys involved. He's trying to go to work on the low blocks more
when the offensive breakdowns are happening. He's thrived as a rebounder. He's playing
a little bit more defense for a Nuggets team that has been one of the
best defensive squads in the NBA to this season. So I would argue that,
yeah, his start has been better because he's had to deal with even
more responsibility sands Jamal Murray for a vastly improved defensive team that while he's never
going to be the true defensive centerpiece, that result stems more from, you
know, the everybody chipping in forcing turnovers, not necessarily funneling everything towards him
Rudy Gobert style. He has had more responsibilities to shoulder in they have not
been too large for him. Yeah, I think that now more than ever,
there's a very legitimate case that he's the best player in basketball. He
I mean, I don't want to speak in hyperbolic terms, but he would
probably be my MVP pick right now. Jimmy Butler's right there. I think
Jimmy Butler would be mine right now. Funny enough, Jimmy Butler's still like
a fifty to one odds to win MVP. So if you're a betting person,
some Nuggets numbers to consider their offense ranks in the first percentile so far
without yo Kich. That is disgusting. They have some all backup or bench
heavy units that have just been an eyesore. I think Michael Malone in their
wins over the Mavericks and who else did they beat their past two games,
I'm just apparently my memories blanking over their past few games. I think he's
done a better job of sort of mixing up the rotations, and we did
see bones a little bit, I believe, but those units have been getting
killed, and I think you're gonna need to do Some people mentioned bringing Will
Barton to the bench. I don't think you need to do that. You
probably need to stagger him more heavily. I think what it's gonna come down
to, though, Michael Porter Jr. Just has to be better because he's
not been good. Look. When Nicole Yokich is on the floor, his
true shooting is forty three. When Nikolyyokich is off the floor, his true
shooting is thirty two point four. Overall last season, he was auging point
four six points per touch. He's at that's basically in half. This season,
he's at point two five five. I don't think those struggles are going
to continue. He's actually using, by the way, and I thought you'd
find this interesting. Fewer dribbles per touch this year than he did last year,
and so I do think his role is less streamlined because of the defensive
tension he's receiving. And I do think the Nuggets are asking him to make
different types of decisions, even if they're still relying heavily on note Yokich to
create everything and then even a Will Barton and maybe even a Monte Morris to
take more more complicated shots. The ceiling of this team, Nicole Yokich is
both it's floor and it's ceiling. But if they're gonna get like the bump
up Michael Porter Junior house, the past peoples, drag them down or take
them to another level, and I think that's what's going to be huge,
and it's yeah, they'll be scarier if he's gonna play better during the Yokich
minutes. I do think this team has to at least to some degree,
figure out the non Yokis minutes if they want to be that legit contender without
Murray. And I don't look at I look at this team is like having
quality depth. But if Michael Porter Junior is gonna play this poor ly to
where you can't even entertain he's averaging under ten minutes per game without Yoki on
the court, maybe they don't even I don't think you want necessarily more than
that. Do you want to play Michael Porter Junior. Yeah, you want
your two best players on the court for as much as possible, but you
need those minutes to be by far more productive. And he's just you know,
I don't there. We can go deeper and say what he needs to
do better, but I just feel like he's missing a bunch of shots and
looks that he was hitting last year, and they need those to go in
because that's going to drag them down. He's getting clean looks, they just
aren't falling. I think I think one fix right now, while the second
unit is in this early season, Malaise is moving Monte Morris to the bench
just to get that steadying presence who can seek out his own shot on occasion.
I think that makes a lot more sense than having these just these lineups
that are completely devoid of offensive ability. But I do have one more stat
just in support of Yokich being off to an unreal start to this season.
The b Ball Index is adjusted adjusted rim points saved per seventy five possessions leaderboard.
Do you want to guess where Yokis ranks at this stage of the season.
This is heading into games on November one third, He's fifth and the
top ten. We'll just we'll go through him real fast, because I think
it's helped show the validity of this metric. Isaiah Stewart and tenth, Rashaun
Holmes ninth, Nikola Vukovic eighth, Clint Capella seventh, Mobomba sixth, Yoki
fifth, Yaki Peartle fourth, Rudy Gobert third, Joel Mbiad second, and
Miles Turner first. It's a pretty solid list of bigs to be surrounded by
when you're talking about rim protection numbers. Yeah, look, and the stuff
with Yokis too. It does feel like the Nuggets are always really good earlier
in the season defensively, and maybe that's anecdotally correct and just factually wrong.
Every I just feel like in the start of every season we talk about how,
oh wow, Yoki's just playing really aggressively on defense, and he's coming
up to the level of the screen and at some point it's like, hey,
we've got to stop thinking that this is new. This like, this
is how they've used Yoki. He has great hands. I'm curious to see
whether it's something that sustains all year. It feels very much like the Nuggets
are always singer than you'd expect, maybe at the beginning and the end of
the year, like sort of that book end, but what happens during the
middle. Overall, though, the fact that they've been better on defense than
offense this year is probably almost encouraging. I wouldn't say it's definitely, but
it's got to be almost encouraging. I think it's good news ultimately when you
know that ya, Jamal Murray coming back at some point, Tony spookums who's
actually anti more LATCHI hey, longtime fan, is there a statistic or group
that can help relate if a team is fun to watch? Go Hornets?
So I was assuming this was for a Hornets thing. I don't know.
I mean, you can look at pace, but I think there's noise in
that. I like to look at the average and this isn't just a fun
factor, but this is what I when I'm trying to see how fast the
team is committed to playing. I want to look at the average time each
possession lasts for them, and so the Nuggets their seventh overall, but their
first after a made shot, and that's how you know at fifteen point nine
seconds the next closest team is the Lakers at sixteen point two. There are
like, if you're gonna play that fast after taking the ball out, that's
a team that likes to push, likes to get at defenses before they're fully
set. And I think that's a fair in this case. It seems like
an accurate barometer of how fun the Hornets can be to watch. But there
are I mean, you could look at probably a bunch of different depends on
what you like about. I might look at which team is taking the most
step back jumpers, because I'm gonna I'm gonna find that tantilizing. I think
my favorite thing about this question is we might have found the question where I'm
most confident in saying just go with the eye test, because like, yeah,
like fast paced teams can be fun. The Washington Wizards were the fastest
team in the league last year, and I don't know that they were that
much fun to watch on a nightly basis. You know, there's a difference
between teams getting out and running because they should and because they can. I
don't know that it's it's ultimately an inherently subjective question because what you enjoy watching
is going to be different. I mean, if if we can track like
alley oops thrown the step back jumpers, no, you could. You could
look at how many unassisted field goals they are, but then you're going to
be dealing with some James Harden dribble machines, you know, but like that,
some dunks are just not interesting. Absolutely, I don't know that I
would have one single metric that truly works. I mean, like maybe the
one I would lean to most would be like transition points per game, just
because ultimately it is fun to watch the teams that aren't just getting out and
running a lot, but are good at doing it. Maybe even transition points
per possession or even frequency, because then that's like it doesn't necessarily have to
end. Well, they just know that the free throws allowed per game like
something like that. Maybe if anyone is curious, though, the Hornets steph
and curries per team like something like that. The Hornets are ninth in transition
frequency and they're twelfth in transition efficiency. So there, and that's a great,
a great set of numbers that would support them being fun. Here's anything
that's that's my ultimate answer though, if I'm gonna if I'm gonna settle on
one, it's it's Steph Curries per team. Let's stick with the hornets here
from Jake g And I think that answer your final one is sound. Is
there a Jake g Ass? Is there a history of Miles Miles Bridges type
improvement to start a season? If so, how sustainable has it been?
There is? To my recollection and during the brief research I did, I
have not seen anyone make the statistical leap necessarily when they're past their rookie to
sophomore to thirty like three to four. I don't know that I've seen someone
double their scoring output seeing their usage increase by nearly ten percentage points. I
will say, when you look at his efficient and see like this is not
something he's doing drastically different compared to last year, sixty one point four percent
on his twos. It comes on double the volume, but it's up from
fifty nine point three percent last season thirty seven percent on threes again coming on
more volume, but he actually shot forty percent from three last year. He's
doing more work off the dribble. When you're looking at him going inside the
arc. I think his passing is like the same. It's more so reactionary
than someone who has like this type of great four sight. That's not really
a problem. I don't know what he is on defense, aside from I
would call him positionally malleable, which I do think is mostly a compliment.
No one springs to mind when you're looking statistically at this, maybe to you
where I see this, and it's in terms of raw scoring, because like
it's not like it's assists numbers or upper town. It's his usage is skyrocketed,
and he's just he went from twelve point seven points to twenty four point
six. I can't really think of anything off the top of my head,
like this is a weird one. But the first name that came to mind.
Do you remember back in twentyeen when Andrew Nicholson for the Orlando Magic like
kind of went off at the start of the year. He started with eighteen
points in the season opener on eight of ten shooting, then at thirteen nine
and seventeen in the next three games, like even that is at a much
smaller scale and ultimately proved unsustainable. The best comparison might be like Harrison Barnes
from this year, where all of a sudden the scoring numbers are just absolutely
skyrocketing, except he's doing it in a tenth season. I think we've reached
the point with Bridges where it doesn't just feel like an early season aberration.
And maybe it's still too early to say that, but it seems pretty clear
that the Hornets are intent on featuring him in the offense, both in transition
and within the half court, and that he's responding well to it. That
he's playing with an ideal teammate in LaMelo Ball who both wants to and can
get him the ball in a lot of advantageous situations. So I don't know
that I have a great comparison, because ultimately we remember where the numbers normalize
two more than we do these ridiculously hot ten game starts to a season.
So there probably are others like this out there that we just forget about because
they weren't ultimately sustainable. The one I thought about, and it's a similar
time one year two to three was twenty eighteen twenty nineteen Siakham, where he
went from eight points as a sophomore to seventeen points as a as a third
year player. So I was usage skyrocket the Raptors win the title that year.
And it was also a situation where he was not the number one option
first team, and Myles Bridges is not you know, he's gonna score,
but like he's not the one who's running the offense a majority of the time.
Jalen Brown went from thirteen to twenty point three in his fourth season,
Like maybe something like that, but even that's not quite on the same scale.
But what I what I took away from what you just said is that
you're picking the Hornets to win the title. That is, I don't know
how you got that from what I see. You said that when you're comparing
it to Siakham, like the Raptors went on and won the title that year,
So I see a pretty clear connection. Yeah, I mean, I
guess it's Gordon Hayward Kauai in this instance is La melo Quai Like I don't,
I don't, I don't know how we're that seems like quite the leap,
But yes, Hornets are gonna win the title. This question comes from
Paul Delores. Are the Chicago Bulls for real? Yeah? I think so.
I don't. I don't believe that they're a juggernaut in the Eastern Conference,
that they're a contender, But I do think they're for real as a
legitimate playoff team in the Eastern Conference. They have so much scoring firepower,
and it's clear that that guys like Alex Caruso, Javonte Green, like these
lower minute, high effort players are impacting the overall defensive intensity. I think
that this We said it as soon as the transaction happened. But Lonzo Ball
is a perfect fit for this team, alongside Zach Lavine, alongside Damarta Rosen,
and the roster makes a lot more sense than it has in previous years.
They are still benefiting from a pretty cushy start to their schedule, but
you can only play the people who are in front of you, and they've
played them pretty damn well. I'm with you. Some things that concern me
is I don't are I don't think the defense is gonna end up beating this
good I just I don't look at them, especially Patrick Williams is out for
the season now expected to be with his wrist injury. They do play an
aggressive style and yet like they're not failing their second and opponent turnover stores,
So maybe it holds and when you watch them, like they feel really active
and I don't think yes in size and then maybe by extension the scope of
assignments that he can cover. I don't know that you're losing a ton going
from Patrick Williams to Devonte greenmant screen is just really good defensively, and then
there are some things that you can look at and say, Okay, this
team is eighth in point score per possession and they're starting lineup is just not
performing up to snuff offensively. Yet a lot of that I think is Vooch
just is not one of the biggest disappointments by far, almost made my biggest
disappointment list when I did ten for Bleach Report. It's just that he's been
better than I expected defensively, so it's felt weird including him and he will
normalize eventually. So there's like there needs to be more evidence to be found,
but what we've seen, and this will tie into another question that I'll
mention, we're getting to a point where like once you get ten games in
I think it was NBA dot Com did this study where it's like it's normally
twenty games are pretty telltale how the standings are going to finish, but that
you can glean a lot, if not a majority, of accurate information from
the first ten or eleven games of a season. And so we are quickly
reaching that point, like we're six, Like six games is not a lot.
But if they go through ten games and they're eight and two, or
they go through twelve games and they're nine and three, like, yeah,
you're gonna have to take them seriously. I do think I land with you,
and there's nothing I guess there's nothing scientific about my answer here. I
just don't think that they're going to end up being right now. If you
look at them, you would say, oh, they are one of the
three or four most serious contenders in the East. I don't know if I
eventually land there for them, I still have the nets, the Hawks and
the Bucks in front of them. I'm very much inclined to put the heat
there at this point, so I feel I don't want to just credit what
they've done. But like, if we get the game like twelve fifteen and
their defense is still in the top five, then it's probably time to rethink
even what would let's call it our hardwood Knox is optimistic takes on the Bulls
because that becomes a whole different spectrum of outcomes for them. I'm comfortable pegging
these Bulls right around like five or six in the Eastern Conference at this point.
That's what a lot of people had them though, is my point?
Yeah, and yeah, I know, and I don't think that they've done
enough to convince me to elevate that ceiling right now. But considering we're talking
about an organization that has not made the playoffs since twenty seventeen, that hasn't
won a playoff series since twenty fifteen, that's a great finish. I'm totally
with you. I'm just saying I think when people are asking if they want
to know if the Bulls are legitimate title consider or odd and I would say,
like, we need to see and the Bulls are not going to play
it an eighty three point three win percentage, right, But I feel comfortable
saying that what would it let's fast, Let's say this is their reck through
twelve games, they are ten and two they are seventh in defense, ninth
and offense. Are you ready to call them a contender then? Or is
it still too early for you. Let's see they play Boston as we're recording
this, then Philly, then Philly, then Brooklyn, the Dallas and then
Golden State. Yeah, if they're ten and two, I'm ready to say
that they're a legitimate contendent. That's also they have benefited at the beginning.
So far, they've beaten Detroit, the Zion Williams, the Zion Williamson Lists,
New Orleans Pelicans. Might be easier to say for future reference, it
would be Detroit the first, second time Toronto in Toronto is a good win,
but that Toronto team is still figuring out what it is. And then
the marquee victory was Saturday night beating the Utah jass. That's one and a
half good wins of those first five, and that, in a nutshell,
is why it's really hard to buy into it being anything more than a validation
of where they were expected to be before the season started. This next question
is semi related to this, Mike, are meant as statistically how many games
into a season is a good representation or innertator of where an NBA team will
end up by season end, I said when I was poking around for this
one. NBA dot Com recently did something where they mentioned that it was like
twenty or twenty one games is absolutely telltale of the standings, But they also
just said that there's more of a correlation when you're ten or eleven games in
as well. I think also a few years ago Tom Haberstrow when he was
at ESPN, did a study on this and it was very clear, like
nineteen to twenty one games. I hope I'm not misremembering correctly. I couldn't
find it, so that would be the like when you get to twenty games,
Like that would be the Adam and I can sit here and say everything
we just said about the Bulls and it would hold very little weight the wait
and see approach, or we would hold a lot less weight if the Bulls
were this good twenty games into the season, because it seems like at the
quarter pole and a lot of that. I think what goes into that at
that point, you've probably seen some teams who started out hot have faded.
There are maybe more sellers, teams that are catering to more gradual timelines,
and there's just more of a distinct pecking order, So it's just easier to
separate once you get maybe fourteen to fifteen in and then you let those games
unfold a little bit more. I'm just curious whether this season could be a
little bit different because of how many teams are ostensibly trying to win now where
maybe that twenty to twenty one game mark still makes sense, But as the
NBA dot Com article proposed, maybe eleven and twelve games really isn't that telltale
just because of how many teams are so engaged in trying to you know,
the play in tournament, having that type of impact trying to win. Now.
Look, there's a reason that at NBA Math and our rolling team ratings,
that we have it set up to be a team's performance over a twenty
game stretch, and that we don't publicize those results until we're twenty games into
the season, because that is typically the benchmark for when things from a statistical
standpoint become more indicative of season long performance. I don't have any numbers to
back this up, frankly, because I have not had enough time to really
dive in and test out the hypothesis, but I would suspect that it is
becoming a little bit less indicative of the season long results as the NBA shifts
more and more into the three point heavy league, that it has become just
because there's a little bit more of variance and outcomes on a night tonight basis,
so you can have a little bit more noise over that twenty games sample.
I would wager that whereas it might have been like eighteen games twenty years
ago, that it's going to be more like twenty five games these days.
But again, like there is nothing backing that up. That is pure conjecture.
It seems like a pretty smart, informed type of guess. Also be
really dumb. What's that? It could also be really dumb. I have
no idea. That's how I approach most of the things. You say.
That's very really dumb. Let's see, so this next question comes from the
NBA chicken. Who has the worst bench unit? And why is it the
Nuggets? I will say I might be more inclined to like kind of wait
and just see, like to let the season develop before we're gonna look at
the because I look at the Nuggets actual bench players, and I think you
can make a case that, Okay, this this offense might end up being
pretty bad, Like who are you running the offense through? If you keep
your rotation the same. I'm just fewer than ten games in. I don't
know whether I'm going to declare a state of emergency for any team's depth unless
you thought it was going to be like this huge issue coming in. I
will say, statistically, the Nuggets bench has the worst point differential per one,
the second worst point differential prone hundred possessions. Would you care to venture
who has the worst only the Thunder because they don't have any talent. No,
I would just argue that the talent is so close together that the bench
blacks. Are you mean differential between starters and bench or just differential between the
bench and the opposing bench. It's the bench in the opposing bench. It's
just a minute that I think the reserves have played on the court. However,
NBA dot Com is sorting it there. The Orlando Magic have the worst,
and that's at least in part fueled by their starting lineup has been a
lot better than I expected. So you're dealing with that drop off there.
If I had to pick another candidate and I know you could say that Thunder
having the worst bench. If you were looking from a gap of starting lineup
town to bench talent on the same team, maybe you would view this differently.
I think this selection might fit both sets of criteria. I'm officially concerned
about the Boston Celtics reserves. I know everyone kind of touted them as the
super deep team when you kind of look at their top five guys to what's
coming up after Josh Richardson's not the same Josh Richardson. I guess there's a
case if like Dennis Shrewder is having a good game, I'm just I don't
know, you're the players you're starting. It always looked like the Nuggets we're
gonna get or the Nuggets the Celtics, we're gonna get pretty iffy after their
top six or seven guys. And right now they have the third worst bench
differential in the league. So and I there's you know, there's probably a
lot of noise in there too, because you have like Shrewder has started three
games for them this year, Killingiams has started two because Al Horford miss missed
some time. But like looking at their core bench players, and I would
still include shrewder in that one, like Josh Richardson, Romeo Langford, Peyton
Pritchard, and like they haven't even you know, Peyton Pritchard shooting terribly.
Romo Lanfe has been a lot better than I expected this season, But that's
a bench where I feel like it could be a feaster famine type situation.
So I would personally keep my eye on them. And I also look at
the thunder bench is going to be pretty bad, So like, if you
want to throw that out there, I think we should just throw out all
the bottom feeding teams, because yeah, Detroit is going to have just a
terrible, terrible bench unit, as is Houston, as is Oklahoma City,
as is Orlando. So where do you end on this the Pelicans bench,
it's not very fun at all. But I'm just do they fall into the
bad team because even without Zion, I think I think they have to right
now, especially because without Zion and without brandon Ingram for a portion of this
season already, like it's it's gotten even thinner. I guess what I'm just
I'm wondering how he would impact their second unit offense, because if you if
you put him in the starting lineup, he probably replaces herb Jones, and
then your second unit, like in terms of creators, is still the same,
Like Saturanski's not playing his huge role. What is Kyra lewis doing for
you? I guess you can move into Kiel Alexander Walker to the bench,
but is he even ready to sort of run those units? And so it
feels like they could be just one of the worst offensive benches in the league.
And I will say a lot of people have done the whole I can't
believe they gave up Lonzo Ball for that return. I actually agree, but
Lonzo Ball was not the guy. I think he's in like the fourth percentile
of pick and roll efficiency right now. It's like he wasn't the guy that
was going to settle units on his own. I think they should have kept
him. I want to make that clear. But that's addition, Yeah,
yeah, that did. The disingeneous argument to make is, oh, they
would be much better off looking at their let's say, reserve offense or just
offensive depth creation depth with him, because that's just never been his game.
Can I nominate the Phoenix Suns as a sneaky contender for this answer? They
didn't? You can, and I just want to add very quickly. I
was shocked and this is a terrible look that they decline a third year option
on Jalen Smith, the tenth overall pick in the twenty nineteen draft. Great
sign, but yeah, I mean, like, right now, that bench,
that bench unit, the true second team is looking at two of the
three between Jalen Smith, JaVale McGee and Frank Kaminsky, Cam Johnson, and
then two of the three of Landry sham At, Alfred Payton and Cameron Payne.
It's hard to get excited about that one, like unless you're unless you're
banking on campaign being exactly what he was during last postseason's last postseason's run to
the NBA Finals, and even then it's not that good, especially for a
legitimate contending team. Yeah, that's and look, missing Dario Sarr hurts them
a lot. I'm just not sure it's han. He would totally revamp that,
I do think. And his deal wasn't that dissimilar, Like you couldn't
you still had basically half your mL E. There wasn't a way to like
keep Tory Craig that would To me, that was borderline Excuse me, that
was borderline shameful that they let him walk. I know you got abdel Nador
back on a good deal, but he was so important defensively and was hitting
threes for you. It's just a subtibly good offensive rebounder that was just These
are all things again, no one was gonna like run the offense for the
second unit, but that's something that would have definitely improved there their immediate depth,
and I'm just you know you had I think with they have four point
nine million leftover of the mid level, that's actually not that much less than
Tory Craig ended up signing for. And you're gonna tell me that you couldn't
have gotten Davao for slightly less than than five point five. So I'm I'm
with you. They could be a nomination. I think there is just some
talent there, so I would be inclined to think that they'll get better.
It's just like looking at their starting lineup data is once again terrible, but
that unit was able to progress to a better mean. I would expect them
to do the same. But that's a I think that's a really good selection,
and I don't think that the bench is to blame for Phoenix's slow start.
I mean, like, yeah, mckelbridge has been disappointing, Devin Booker
has been a little bit disappointing. Jay Crowder has been an abject disaster.
But the bench does not have any standout play right now, and unless Cam
Johnson dials back the clock about a year, it doesn't look like that's going
to change. It feels like in less Johnson is the guy to take a
step fort and he could very well move into the starting lineup. This is
a low floor, low ceiling bench, which is not what you want as
a contender with a lot of older pieces. They are still my title pick.
Don't you worry, phoenix on Zan. They are still my title pick
because I refused to move off them. Here's an interesting question, and we
actually have not talked about him that much since the season started. Calvin Johnson
asked, what is Evan Mobley's ceiling? I want you to take this one
first so that I can gloat afterwards, because I know that we diverged a
lot in our pre draft analysis of Evan Mobley. Is there? So I
was wrong about Evan Mobley, And I want to make it clear I never
said he was gonna be a bad NBA player. I didn't love the fit
in Cleveland. I also didn't think he deserved to be like third on everybody's
board. Maybe I've just been jaded against drafting bigs in general. I also
looked you need to take my draft takes. I say this all the time
with a you know, a metric ton of salt, because I only get
shit deep into the draft and for the college season's basically already over. I
did not know he could guard all five positions. They have him on the
perimeter so much that it's almost if Jared Allen wasn't on the court a bunch
with him, he would almost hate how much he was on the perimeter for
them. The way he can see the game to him in the half court
or offensively, just having another creator to go through is just absolutely mind melting.
I don't know what his ceiling is because he's not he's People have called
him Yannis two point zero. There's a different He's just not as explosive as
you see. Some Chris Bosh Anthony Davis comparisons floated around there, and I
just feel like his game is not as sudden as Anthony Davis is. Might
be the best way to put it, his offensive ceiling. I don't want
to say it's higher than Davis is, but it's definitely he has a more
expansive portfolio of skills. Davis has never been that type of passer, especially
when Davis was coming into the league, when his offense was a legitimate question
mark, Like a bigger Draymond Green. I don't know if that's that.
Like two f I just I can't come up with him. I'm genuinely asking,
I don't have one either, because he does feel like this new,
evolutionary big I guess because of his size, we have to call him that,
but he's not really that. He can fill so many different roles,
And I think that's the answer to this question, is that we don't have
a comparison for him because there are so many different directions that he could blossom.
And the future is even more tantalizing than I thought it would be.
And I thought that he was closer to being the number one pick than dropping
out of the top three, just in terms of sheer talent going into the
draft, Like, if you're a Cleveland fan, be super excited about him
and what he's going to become, because we just don't know and It's baffling
that a rookie looks this advanced this soon, especially as a twenty year old
rookie who's coming in without a lot of high level collegiate experience and can just
capably fill so many different roles and niches on both ends of the floor this
early in his first season, Like, I have no idea where we should
put his ceiling right now. Do you think he's ceiling is higher on defense
or offense? I have no idea. Okay, probably defense, because just
that versatility to like truly cover all five positions is what every single team in
the NBA covets right now. And I don't know how much I trust his
long range jumper at this point, and that's a significant hole for anybody in
today's NBA. So I think, probably by default, defense has to be
the answer. But at the same time, given what he's already shown off
the dribble as a passer, as a finisher, like, I don't really
want to rule out the idea that he could become a three point marksman.
He's hitting eighty percent of his free throws on three point six attempts per game.
Again, as a twenty year old rookie, do you think that's a
swing skill? Like this is what's going to separate in from being an all
NBA staple to a slash MVP candidate whatever that that you still think that that's
a swing skill. I think so. I mean it feels like a bam
auto bio like development is pretty realistic for him, but I think that he
can also exceed that at this point, which might sound hyperbolic, but like
watch him play and then try to think anything is hyperbolic. Yeah, he's
so good. I just man, you talk about prospects I missed on,
and especially when you about probly get it because you were never questioning the skill.
You were questioning just the fit in today's NBA and whether it's worth spending
a pick on a big And I don't think either of us realize the extent
to which he's not really a big, even if he does stand seven feet
tall, right, and it's I don't know that. I'm sure it's happened
that I've missed on a prospect that I still thought would be good, but
like, wasn't that high Like this is we're talking about someone who I think
people generally thought it was going to be a really good basketball player, and
it's somehow obliterated expectations just even by that type of measure. So great,
great job by Cleveland. I still don't know that I love Alan in him
long term, but when you watch them now, it's just I believe they're
referred to as FROBLI now FROBLI. I did see that. I actually like
it, so I'll roll with it as long as they like it. I
don't like using nicknames that players don't like. I was gutted to hear that
Darius Garland didn't like Sexceland. But then I think he came out and said
he was actually fine with it, that that was a joke, so we
get to call him sexcellent. Still Cleveland with a nice diad nicknames right now,
shout out Cleveland. We have two Raptors related questions here that apparently have
to scroll through because Oh Armored Monkey asked, how has Scottie Barnes start been
compared to other great rookies? So it's so early, but I just did
this to sort of filter it out. There's only been one rookie in NBA
history who has averaged twenty five points at ten rebounds one steel per one hundred
possessions while shooting fifty eight percent or better on twos. It was DeAndre Ayton,
but I don't even think that you would say was this all time great
rookie for me. Scotty Barnes has just been most encouraging as someone with the
field as a passer, and then his mid range game has come along faster
than I thought it was. Shooting is clearly going to be a swing skill
for him, and I think he's gonna eventually end up being like a very
disruptive defender who isn't you know, doesn't need to be someone that you need
to worry about necessarily fouling a ton. And even now, like you know,
given what he does, two point eight pails for thirty six minutes.
That's not high by any stretch. So he's been look the biggest shock with
him, and I think everyone was puzzled how the Raptors went with him over
Jalen Suggs. And I think when you look at the structure of the team
now, the two things that stand out is they very clearly needed a bigger
wing initiator type to maximize fred Van Fleet, which Jalen Suggs is not.
And then also Scottie Barnes does not look like the project that he was supposed
to be like. He just looks like someone who's ready to play now.
So I don't know where he's going to end up for the season, but
that ends up being like a wow. MASSI in his front office and his
scouts and just anyone who went into sort of impacting this decision, they clearly
might have just been the smartest people in the room here because Scotty Barnes is
just he looks great. I think Scotty Barnes is to me what Evan Mobley
is to you. Where I thought he'd be a really good NBA player,
I didn't know that it would happen this quickly that his ceiling would look quite
this high. I mean, we are ultimately talking about a guy who averaged
ten point three points per game twenty three point eight points per a hundred possessions
during his loan season at Florida State and in the NBA, granted only in
a seven game sample, he's already up to eighteen point one points per game
and twenty five point five points per one hundred possessions. And he looks good
doing it because he can already fill so many different roles. He looks comfortable
operating off the ball and filling cracks within a defense. He looks comfortable handling
the ball, passing off of the bounce like these are skills that it seemed
like he could have because he was that proverbial army knife prospect in this year's
draft class. But it was supposed to take time for him to put that
together. He was supposed to be making more of an impact as this game
changing, versatile defender, especially alongside o g Naobi where they could just switch
on everything and for him to be disadvanced this quickly on the offensive end,
another guy where it just seems like the sky is the limit, where he
could very clearly be Toronto's best player in a few years. I need to
see like more of just the offensive development. But there's for sure that type
of a ceiling and if we want, if you want to sort of get
into the just historical results here. So he's on pace right now, he's
averaging. This is in the perfect way to do this. But I'm just
trying to see like an impact of a rookie who plays a lot point one
six wind shares for forty eight minutes the last five rookies to do that while
playing at least fifteen hundred minutes. Again, he's not at that point yet.
Ben simmons in twenty seventeen, twenty eighteen, Nicole Yokichi twenty sixteen,
NICOLEA. Miritich twenty fourteen, twenty fifteen, Kawhi Leonard twenty eleven, twenty
twelve, and Chris paul In two thousand and five, two thousand and six.
If he sticks, and I'm not saying he will, that would be
hell a good company to be in. And yes, I just said Hella,
it's twenty twenty one, just in case you'd forgotten. I know I
should I say what's up after that too. It's this friggy class in general
has been really fun to this point in the season, Like it's it's really
early, but you know, even beyond those guys that we just talked about
in Evan Mobley and Scotty Barnes, like Chris Duarte and Friends, Wagner and
Josh Giddey and Alpreyn Changoon and Delano Banton for Toronto and Bones Highland and Denver,
like, there's been a lot of fun contributors. Two things you're gonna
know this an, but what a friggin segue to our next question that you
just made without knowing it. By the way, Adam does these things off
the cuff. But two friends Wagner after watching him in Summer League, I
was just I wasn't out on him, but I was just sort of like
and then seeing that he was playing a on a three, and I still
think he should have been more of before. He's a dark horse rookie of
the year cause that dude can play. Yeah, it's so early right now.
If he just continues to do what he's doing on offense and then you
see some of these other guys fade, he would have a legitimate you know,
people will still gravitate towards the bigger names. If Scotty Barnes is still
there, if Evan Mobley is still playing like this, obviously he's probably been
the third or fourth, no worse than the fifth best rookie right now.
Absolutely, his touch around the basket so much better than I anticipated, just
to feel for the game, it's it's really impressive. Orlando has something there.
This question comes from Omar Ranya Delano Delano Bandon. That's the question.
Mine melting mind blown emoji fireworks emoji. Yeah. I mean, I'll admit
that I don't know much about him, Like I know that he was a
second round draft pick, that he went to Nebraska, one of those guys
where he just was not on my pre draft radar. I did not have
a outing report going in. But he has looked like that do everything role
player that Toronto seems to be able to find whenever Massiah Jerry wants one.
I mean, I don't know that he's going to develop into a star because
I don't know how scalable this production is. But the fact that he has
handled himself nicely on the defensive end while guarding wings, while guarding big men,
the fact that he's hitting half of his three pointers to this point,
Like if he can develop into a three and D player for this team,
like it's another another notch in a in the cap for a Jerry here.
His defense is absolutely absurd, And I saw there's like sections of raptors Twitter
that like weren't excited that people were focusing on a shooting This is like a
defensive prospect who can put pressure on the defense closer to the basket, Like
shooting becomes a swing skill then in that situation, and just right now he's
shooting forty three percent from mid range, even better on log mid range jumpers,
and and he's just he's what is he a total of like two of
four from three or something like that, he's three of six. So look
what a fine by them. And I think that answers the other question that
we had was where was this who's been the second the best second round rookie
this season so far? Came from from Johnny. I'm curious if anybody else
sort of stands out there for you, but I think him, by far
and away has been Lano Banton has been the best after him. If I
had to pick, I think I'd go with herb Jones. He's also been
a monster defensively, and then you talk about shooting being a swing skill.
If he can hit threes like that's the he's going to be just an absurdly
good NBA player. I think Banton is the obvious choice right now. Jeremiah
Robinson Earl playing some big minutes, but beyond that, like no one has
really gotten on the floor. Yeah, the only other guy with over fifty
minutes to this point is Iodasumu, but he hasn't really stood out, his
shot hasn't been falling yet. And then Sandro and I have not yet learned
how to pronounce his last name, which is bad of me, so I'm
not going to try right now. But I think it's pretty clearly Banton.
Yeah, I think Herb Jones has a case. But when Banton is outperformed
what would have been my expectations for him offensively? I think I'm with you
where it's clearly been bantoned to this point. So let's get Let's see if
we can get through a couple more here. We have a question on an
awards, but I'd like to do a pod on that separately. So let's
let's let's skip that one. Dada, that was a mean one about the
about the Denver Nuggets after the first five Carson Cox, I have these bookmarked.
I just keep scrolling past them. Carson Cox. As after the first
couple of games of this season, who you think won the Wizards, Lakers,
Russell Westbrook trade. Probably the Wizards. You know, they have been
more competitive than expected. They managed to parlay Westbrook into a number of different
contributors. I do think that there is something to plummet in Kyle Kuzma,
even if he's continued to be a little bit inconsistent in Washington, like,
there are skills there on both ends of the floor if you can piece them
together. Montrez Harrold has been awesome for this team. Westbrook has not fit
in Los Angeles at this point, and I think that's the biggest thing.
It was always going to be an awkward fit. I am wildly concerned about
the Lakers and Anthony Davis. The five minutes have not been great, and
I think when you look at why, it makes sense because last year you
have Lebron or Kyle Kuzma at the four, and then also KCP and Alice
Caruso both or at least one of would have been on the court. Kuzma,
KCP, and carus are all gone town Hornton tell Grass and played yet
this season, So you have mellow at the four during a lot of those
minutes. That's going to leave you vulnerable defensively. I'm with you on the
Westbrook stuff. I think I think it was clear that the Wizards won it
in the moment for what they needed to do, just based off what the
team needs to accomplish with the Lakers. I think they shortened their rotation,
they shrunk the floor, and maybe they elevated their ceiling without Lebron, but
they didn't be much functionally to elevate it with Lebron. The Wizards, deep
into their rotation, broke up one huge contract into more digestible one. So
if they want to pivot, they can, And that's huge because what if
Bradley Beal wants I mean, I don't know why he'd want out at this
point, but like, you were built to sort of compete in the East
now, but if you need to pivot, we're able to do that a
lot easier, not just this season, but next season as well. So
looking at where both the teams were, you can understand why. You can
understand I wouldn't have done it, so I want to make that clear,
But you can understand why the Lakers went with Russell Westbrook. Even in the
moment though if you didn't think it was disaster trade for the Lakers, and
maybe it turns out not to be a disaster trade for the Lakers, it
was pretty clear that the Wizards just got the better round of that deal given
what both teams were angling to do. Where if you're the Lakers. You
want to increase your championship ceiling or without question, beyond argument, bring yourself
closer to a title. They didn't do that. There was this was a
hit or miss acquisition. It was combustible. The Wizards just did something discernible
distinct, and that was absolutely huge, given that they were sort of trapped
and wandering in the wilderness to that point. And I think the other thing
that has happened here that I hesitate to even bring up because I don't want
it to be true, is that this team is still like it needs Lebron
James to be able to turn back the clock, and I don't remember Lebron
getting off to a less notable start to a season like granted, still trying
to get healthy. It's only played five games, so we're dealing with a
small sample on a team that is adjusting. With Russell Westbrook in the fold,
but he hasn't averaged this few points per game since his rookie season,
this few rebounds per games since his rookie season, this lower field goal percentage
since his rookie season, and he's doing that while playing thirty seven point two
minutes per game, which is his most since twenty sixteen seventeen. It it
doesn't feel like that same ceiling is there, like that same switches there.
And maybe it's because he's just not really putting the pedal to the metal at
this early stage of the season, trying to allow guys to figure out their
roles on this new look Lakers team. But I don't know, like it's
the same feeling I had during the playoffs last year where it just didn't feel
like he had that same aura of inevitability, except magnified this time. Like
he's still an amazingly effective basketball player who is unquestionably an All Star and going
to be in the All NBA conversation. But it just I continue to get
this feeling that Father time is finally starting to affect him a little bit,
and that's the last thing that this Lakers team needs, because if that's the
case, this ceiling is drastically lower. There's definitely a concern to be said.
You mentioned his scoring and then also just looking at his rim frequency if
he is going and just to put that into context, he's reaching the room
on thirty six percent of his shots this year. That would be his lowest
mark since two thousand and eighty two thousand and nine, which that was still
prime Lebron, but it's you know, the past two years have even been
a drop off from his first two seasons in LA. I will say what's
probably encouraging is his three point shooting. I mean, and he's taking some
really difficult attempts. But I'm with you, there's the blow by aspect doesn't
seem like it's there, and maybe he just works his way into form.
I think a bigger part of that is just spacing around him, get by
guys when you have room to maneuver. But I think it's also manifesting on
the defensive end, and that's probably where there's even more of an adjustment period.
But he's looked less involved and less impactful on defense than I can ever
remember Lebron's Lebron being, which is going to screw them up if it remains
that way. I do think watching him, it feels more of like a
choice than a I think so too, which is and I don't ever want
to write off Lebron, who you know, I've rooted for the guy for
almost two decades at this point. Just it's tough to admit, but I
think like it is a real conversation that has to happen and is probably happening
internally in LA, like what do we do if Lebron is not all Caps
Lebron anymore? Two final questions here, This one's a very fascinating one.
On the essays asked, is de Jante Murray a high end starter or better?
Right now? I think the answer is clearly better. He has been
magnificent to start the season. I can't get over the I don't know if
you want to call it a leap, but they've put the keys to the
offense in his hands, and know the offense isn't great, he's gotten so
much better as a passer, and like his escape dribbles, where no,
he's not necessarily going to hit these jumpers off of them, but he's gonna
find ways to just escape, like the escapism dribbles are there, and he's
going to find guys, great chemistry with Jako Peartle, just knowing where guys
are moving. He's you know, he's not going to make the All Star
team just because of how deep it is for the guards, but he's way
better than a high end. So he's a fringe star for me right now.
I'm just curious would you put him, and I had thought about this,
would you put him, even if it was as a dark horse in
the most improved player discussion. I look at just what he as a score.
I don't know if there's been enough development there. His actual shoot just
not flash year down from last year. Yeah, like he's not shooting as
well from mid ranger on threes as he was last year. So, but
he is a better player, and I think he's he's definitely I wouldn't just
call him a high end starter. I would call him much better than that.
I think slightly better than that is where I've been landing. I'm looking
at the Crystal Basketball Grades, the project that we do at NBA Math where
we grade every player going into the season on a one to twelve scale,
and on that scale, the designation for a high end starter non all stars
a seven. An All Star candidate is an eight, mid tier starter,
a solid starter, as we call it as a six. There's john Te
Murray in the preseason edition of this project, tied with Colin Sexton at sixty
third overall at six point five six. So just making the cutoff for the
high end starter, you were actually the highest on him. You gave him
an All Star grade of eight. You were the only one that did so.
I gave him a seven. So it makes sense to me that you're
still a little bit higher on him. But I think it's a pretty accurate
thing to call him at this stage, and for anyone who cares his number.
Seventeen point eight points, eight point eight assists, eight point five rebounds,
and he's been playing a lot, he's been playing more minutes, so
like that is inflated by by design. He's shooting forty five point nine percent
on twos, which would is lower than last year. He's also shooting thirty
one point eight percent on threes, which is basically right in the line with
last year. I'm still pretty bullish. I'm worried to be there, but
this might just be this might be peaked John Day Murray where there's going to
be peaks and valleys. To repeat myself as a score, But like,
he's a better pastor and he probably should just not probably he should be mentioned
in the All Defense discussion basically every single year. It feels a little bit
like the RJ. Barrett discussion to me, where we know that he's a
better basketball player, that he is a vastly improved basketball player, but it's
just not conducive to the most improved player argument. The final question here,
and this feels like a good place to wrap because we began the podcast mentioning
this. Thomas Rodriguez asked, what's Jimmy Butler's TPA versus actual NBA player RG?
So I have his TPA pulled up for this season. He is third
in the league behind Yannis at number two, and as if there was ever
any doubt, Nicole Yokis at number one, So he is third in TPA.
Where would you rank him, whether you want, let's do this two
ways. Where would you rank him right now based off only what we've seen,
no other games coming sure, as the player in the league, and
then moving forward, what would you project him as for the rest of the
year. I think at this stage of the season it's a toss up between
him and Yokis for best Player and MVP honors. If we were just basing
it solely like a blind resume test where player reputations did not matter whatsoever,
it's those two as the leaders of the NBA this season. I think you
can have Kevin Durant janis, maybe Paul George and Steph as like a one
B tier, but Butler is in conversation for the absolute best player in the
world based solely on what we've seen this season. He's a very high energy,
high effort player, and given how much he's expended at the start of
this year, I don't know how sustainable this peak version of him is.
So I feel pretty comfortable saying that he's probably going to heavy air quotes here
regress into being eight to ten, which is about where you would have had
him if you were optimistic heading into the season. And look, I think
that's fair. He has just been There's nothing about his offensive game that's really
changed, which is why I would be encouraged, and look, I want
to get this on our chests. The reaction to Butler's offseason extension was overwhelmingly
uncomfortably pro billionaire proprietor maybe that contract, which runs through his age thirty sixth
season, doesn't age well. Who cares? Keeping superstars is critical to championship
runs and the heat forget about their championship chances. I would argue that they
might be the most win now team in the NBA. Even more so maybe
not more so than the Lakers because bam at Obio is younger than Davis.
But just looking at what they did with Lowry Gimming Butler the extension. Look,
they're one of the three to five most win now teams in the league.
What's equally cringey? Just because someone signs a deal that you don't like
in some it doesn't mean that they're automatically gonna start sucking, Like this is
worst case scenario is maybe the final two years, final three years of the
five total years left on his deal look bad. We still have like at
least two years. I would argue, of peak Jimmy Butler basketball, and
he's coming off it was arguably a career best campaign. People only seem to
remember there was that flame out in the playoffs. He was probably exhausted.
He were coming off the shortest offseason in sports history. If you want to
wait it to some extent, sure, but that's not the Jimmy Butler that
you're just going to remember. So I almost wouldn't even play that. It's
still early caveat here. He's shooting a worse percentage from mid range. He's
at thirty seven point five percent from three but he's actually taking few or threes,
so that's even if that comes down, it's not this huge part of
his game. And the new focus on like these organic offensive movements, they
haven't impacted him. He's getting to the line basically just as often. And
I think when you've looked at him, he's always felt more like a natural
brute force than sort of this like inorganic off, off, off off Broadway
play actor. And I'm just throwing shade at James Harden there, so I
know, I think, do I think he's gonna twenty five plus points on
sixty two plus tree shooting percentage all year? My guests would take the under
on both. But this could wind up if the heat care enough about the
regular season. I think that might be the biggest caveat of all here.
I might. As of right now, he's clearly top two, top three
on the MVP ballot. Yokich is I think Yokhich is number one. I
don't know, Butler might be there anyway, regardless. Like I said,
it's a toss up. I do think that his place in the MVP ballot,
let's say top three, is eminently sustainable, because what are we I'm
just I'm looking at him, but there's a different there's a difference. Sorry,
sorry to interrupt there, but like I'm answering from the standpoint of like
player rankings, not MVP ballot, because I do think, given his importance
to the Heat, that his spot on an MVP ballot supersedes his placement and
player rankings. So yes, yeah, that's a great point. I guess
what I would diverge that I would think he was probably eight to ten last
year, and because he's been better so far, I mean, you started
naming the people that I would definitely take over him, and let's play the
brutally on his card. There's Jannis, there's Yokich I go Steph, I
go Durant. That is it that I'm guaranteeing for the rest of the season,
which you're absolutely guaranteeing that, like lebron we already mentioned the concerns there.
You know that I've been more broke from Lebronze agent curve than than you,
for sure. And there are other players that can work that. You
know, James Harden, what about Luca No oh no, no, look
look indeed, maybe is he gonna play enough? Healthy Kauai, He's not
playing this season. If he does, it's gonna be like fifteen games.
Probably, Who would you guarantee beyond the four that I mentioned, I guess
would be my question. Guarantee. I'm comfortable putting Luca in there because no
matter how much Jason Kidd tries to fuck him up, he's still just that
good. Yeah, beyond that, Like, that's that's where I think.
And again, like you know, as as I've spent more and more time
doing this, I've I've gotten I've I've gained more affinity for ranking and tears
rather than than just specific ranks. I enjoy the rankings discussion in general.
But I do agree with you, and I know set part now of the
athletic is in the mid range Theory book is pretty bullish on the tears,
and I do agree there that's definitely fair. Yeah, I mean, like
again, looking at the Crystal Basketball Project, Butler checked in at sixteenth.
That's too low. I think that he's I think he's seen he was sixteen.
He was responsible name names right now, Honestly, no one was what
did I give him? You and Bryan to Porrek were the only people to
give him a ten. Everyone else gave him A nine cowards. You're all
cowards. And I love every single person who participated, I think, but
you're all cowards. But I think, like you know, you said,
Jannis Yokich, k D and Steph, I'm gonna throw Luca in that top
tier. Maybe we can have two like sub tiers within that top tier.
But then I think, like you're looking at embiid Harden, the Lillard,
Anthony Davis, Paul George not going to mention Lebron at all that Lebron and
like and like Jimmy Butler, I think that's a reasonable. Next year,
let's throw a big Aaron there, who's just been phenomenal to start the season.
You want to talk about a guy who deserves some love on MVP ballots
right now, No, we haven't mentioned at this point. His offense has
been fantastic. It's a wild that, let's say, the betting consensus appears
to be catching up because he's better than twenty to one to win MVP right
now, and just for context, Jimmy Butler's forty nine to one at this
moment, I think Bear was nineteen to one or something. That's people will
quibble, they think he should be third or fourth whatever, and he doesn't
what happened at fourth odds, which is knowing what people value in the MVP
discussion. The factical bear absolutely sniffing twenty to one is incredible. But point
being, I think that that Butler is firmly in the midst of that like
six to twelve tier. Where you have him in that is immaterial to me.
I don't care if you have him twelve, if you have him six,
I think he firmly belongs in that same tier as Lebron Embiide Harden,
Dame Anthony Davis like those those names. Granted that that relies on James Harden
and Damian Lillard, remembering that they're James Harden and Damian Lillard, but that's
for another discussion. This was fantastic as usual. Thank everyone for their great
questions. Some of the takes are already aging poorly because it looks like the
NIS will be five and two instead of six and one because the Raptors have
decided never to miss a shot from beyond the arc. Also shout out to
the person who went in our comments and said we didn't talk about the Jazz
in the last podcast, even though they have the best record in the NBA.
When we were talking about basically surprises the Jazz having the best record in
the NBA. We'rudy Gobert being this good. It's not a surprise, And
I don't know that we do the best job talking about every team. We're
not just focusing on like the smaller market. So I would just like to
say, I know I'm biased, but to that person, why will not
name? Fuck you? Thank you to everyone out too delivered. I'm sorry
that got under my skin because of how much we actually talk about the Jazz.
Like if anyone came out us and said we don't talk enough about nuggets
of the Jazz on this podcast, I'm sorry you and Gobert, I think
fourth on your MVP ballot last year, So I'm gonna get defensive and play
that card there. We've had a couple of videos about how like Gobert continues
to be just massively underrated and we're not looking We're wrong all the time.
I'm wrong most of the time. I'm sure that we don't talk about that.
You know, maybe we didn't talk about the Calves enough, and we
did talk about Evan Mobile a bad example. We don't talk about the Pistons
enough or something. I apologize we comtly get large. I think we are
only moderately in suffer and that comment implied that we were exceedingly insufferable, so
it naturally got under my skin a little bit. Anyway, if you've made
it this far, please please remember to rate, review and subscribe to Hardwareknox
wherever you get your podcasts, five star ratings and written reviews. Help us
out a ton on iTunes, whether you use it or not. Follow us
on Twitter at Hardwoodknox. Subscribe to our YouTube channel YouTube dot com search hardware
Knox you will come up. Follow us on Instagram at Hardwood Underscore Knox.
Until next time, leave it. The shout out to the one the only
getting some run in Dallas and I saw a subgenre of mavericks Twitter climboring him
to start. Frank Niel Keena