1 00:00:00,160 --> 00:00:03,640 To see. The thing is when you ask me timeframe, I don't know 2 00:00:03,680 --> 00:00:07,160 how long it's going to take to get to one or the other, but 3 00:00:07,280 --> 00:00:12,839 I can say that over the next few weeks to maybe a month's time, 4 00:00:13,119 --> 00:00:18,679 the market is going to likely tell us which way it intends to go in 5 00:00:18,719 --> 00:00:23,960 the bigger picture. You're listening to Carrie Letts's Financial Survival Network where you get 6 00:00:24,039 --> 00:00:29,760 valuable information you just can't find anywhere else to thrive in today's trying times. 7 00:00:29,879 --> 00:00:35,920 You need the Financial Survival Network now more than ever. Go to Financial Survival 8 00:00:36,000 --> 00:00:42,399 Network dot com and get your free newsletter and gift. Financial Survival Network now 9 00:00:42,920 --> 00:00:51,320 more than ever. And welcome. You are listening to the Financial Survival Network. 10 00:00:51,359 --> 00:00:55,560 I'm your host, Carrie Letts. Markets Well, they've been up or 11 00:00:55,759 --> 00:00:59,799 sideways, they haven't really been declining much. And the person you're about to 12 00:00:59,840 --> 00:01:04,079 hear from kind of cold this several months ago when the rest of the street 13 00:01:04,159 --> 00:01:08,519 was panicking, he held tight. And who's the smarter person. I'm talking 14 00:01:08,560 --> 00:01:15,480 about av Gilbert And the site is Elliott Wavetrader dot net. And if you've 15 00:01:15,480 --> 00:01:19,400 got a question for Avvy myself kl at Kerry Lutz dot com is the email 16 00:01:19,400 --> 00:01:25,920 address AVI. Welcome back, So you're mostly right. Well, thank you 17 00:01:25,959 --> 00:01:30,480 for having me back, and you know that's the goal. I know it's 18 00:01:30,480 --> 00:01:33,400 the goal. But there's a lot of people out there. Look, let's 19 00:01:33,400 --> 00:01:38,159 face it, there's a million newsletters, a million people pretend to know what's 20 00:01:38,200 --> 00:01:44,079 going on or claim they know what's going on, and yet often the boat 21 00:01:44,280 --> 00:01:47,599 is missed. And yet in your case, I wouldn't say we've gone up 22 00:01:47,599 --> 00:01:52,319 to new records yet, but you did say you expressed a confidence in the 23 00:01:52,400 --> 00:01:59,439 market that was completely lacking from virtually every other forecaster out there. Yeah, 24 00:01:59,480 --> 00:02:04,840 I mean the market. I can't say that the structure has been clean, 25 00:02:05,640 --> 00:02:10,479 but the overall path has been relatively clear. I was actually discussing this with 26 00:02:10,520 --> 00:02:15,280 some of our members today and when we were looking for the bottoming structure back 27 00:02:15,319 --> 00:02:19,919 down in a thirty five hundred region on the S and P five hundred, 28 00:02:20,280 --> 00:02:24,479 we we actually laid out the general path we expected for the market to take 29 00:02:24,560 --> 00:02:30,000 up to forty three hundred plus. We expected we get a rally towards the 30 00:02:30,080 --> 00:02:35,120 forty one hundred to forty one fifty region, a pull back consolidation back to 31 00:02:35,199 --> 00:02:39,080 maybe about thirty eight hundred thirty nine hundred and then and then another rally to 32 00:02:39,159 --> 00:02:44,879 forty three hundred plus. Overall, that's pretty much what the market has done 33 00:02:44,960 --> 00:02:53,199 right now. And over the last week or two, I've been highlighting what 34 00:02:53,639 --> 00:02:59,199 we call the danger zone entire members, and that was basically between forty three 35 00:02:59,360 --> 00:03:05,960 seventy five to about forty four thirty three, about fifty point fifty to sixty 36 00:03:05,960 --> 00:03:09,159 point zone that we call the danger zone that we were reaching before we topped. 37 00:03:09,520 --> 00:03:15,199 And I said, from this zone, we could see a very sizable 38 00:03:15,240 --> 00:03:22,439 decline. But I'm going to need to see something very very specific off that 39 00:03:22,840 --> 00:03:27,360 top for me to consider that we're going to be seeing a very very sizable 40 00:03:27,400 --> 00:03:31,560 decline. That's started yet and I haven't seen it yet. So what is 41 00:03:31,639 --> 00:03:38,719 the tip off? What particular formation, what activity is it? Volumetric? 42 00:03:39,159 --> 00:03:45,879 Is is it piercing? Support levels? Two hundred day moving average? What 43 00:03:46,599 --> 00:03:51,840 are we looking at? Well, it's basically an elliot wave construct. I'm 44 00:03:51,919 --> 00:03:58,479 looking for whether the market gives us five waves down off a high or simply 45 00:03:58,599 --> 00:04:04,400 a corrective back off a high, and each one will give me a different 46 00:04:04,439 --> 00:04:10,840 action to do. Okay, all right, So we're looking for the next 47 00:04:10,919 --> 00:04:15,319 wave and well, what you know, you've been following the market for decades. 48 00:04:15,360 --> 00:04:19,399 Here, what's your gut telling you? I gotta tell you, I 49 00:04:19,439 --> 00:04:25,519 have learned many, many years ago to avoid gut trading. For me, 50 00:04:25,879 --> 00:04:29,240 all I want to know is what is the market telling me? What is 51 00:04:29,279 --> 00:04:30,519 my gut dinner tell me? Is one thing. I just wanted to know 52 00:04:30,560 --> 00:04:34,079 what the market is telling me, And the market is telling me to be 53 00:04:34,199 --> 00:04:39,600 very very cautious. At this point in time when everybody started getting very very 54 00:04:39,720 --> 00:04:44,040 bullish as we were heading to forty four hundred, I was telling everybody, 55 00:04:44,079 --> 00:04:48,519 guys, it's time to now race stops on all your holdings and or raise 56 00:04:48,800 --> 00:04:55,439 cash because we are a very very dangerous posture right now, and we have 57 00:04:55,480 --> 00:04:59,800 to let the market let us know over the next couple of weeks exactly what 58 00:04:59,800 --> 00:05:02,199 we need to do, whether we're going to short the market, or whether 59 00:05:02,199 --> 00:05:05,959 we're going to go back into the market and possibly look at the next higher 60 00:05:06,000 --> 00:05:11,480 target of maybe forty eight hundred on the SMP back to the highs uh huh. 61 00:05:12,120 --> 00:05:15,360 Okay, So you got a time frame, you know, they always 62 00:05:15,399 --> 00:05:19,120 say you could ask somebody where the market's going, or you could ask them 63 00:05:19,560 --> 00:05:24,680 when it's going to go. But you should never predict both because invariably it'll 64 00:05:24,720 --> 00:05:28,040 be wrong to see. The thing is, when you ask me timeframe, 65 00:05:28,439 --> 00:05:31,040 I don't know how long it's going to take to get to one or the 66 00:05:31,079 --> 00:05:36,279 other, but I can say that over the next few weeks to maybe a 67 00:05:36,439 --> 00:05:43,600 month's time, the market is going to likely tell us which way it intends 68 00:05:43,639 --> 00:05:47,519 to go in the bigger picture. Okay, I'll buy that, because you 69 00:05:47,600 --> 00:05:53,680 know it's there are times when you just you can't really tell, but caution 70 00:05:54,160 --> 00:05:59,920 should be the buy word. But what about the concept that markets markets climb 71 00:06:00,000 --> 00:06:05,199 on a wall of worry? I mean, I mean, what they're really 72 00:06:05,240 --> 00:06:11,120 saying is it's more of a contrarian perspective. You know, when everybody is 73 00:06:11,360 --> 00:06:15,000 bullish, that's when you get a market high. When everybody is barish, 74 00:06:15,040 --> 00:06:18,920 that's when you get a market low. And you know, the extent, 75 00:06:19,319 --> 00:06:27,120 the extent to which people the extent to which people will be following that wall 76 00:06:27,160 --> 00:06:30,920 of worry is what is going to tell you how far are you from a 77 00:06:30,040 --> 00:06:33,439 market top? You know how much of worry is there, and that I'll 78 00:06:33,439 --> 00:06:36,279 tell you how far you are from the market top. I think it was 79 00:06:36,319 --> 00:06:43,040 pretty clear that last week, there really wasn't much in the way of worry 80 00:06:43,160 --> 00:06:46,839 as many of the people that I know that have been bearish for this twenty 81 00:06:46,839 --> 00:06:51,639 seven percent rally started turning bullish. There really isn't much surprize that we got 82 00:06:51,639 --> 00:06:58,839 to pull back here. Okay, So you can't just be a contrarian, 83 00:06:58,879 --> 00:07:03,240 though, right, because now sometimes the masses are correct, right, yes, 84 00:07:03,319 --> 00:07:08,000 and that and that's that's the thing that Elliott wave analysis tells us. 85 00:07:08,120 --> 00:07:11,399 You know, if you try, if the bulls are running and you try 86 00:07:11,519 --> 00:07:16,040 to be contrarian, oftentimes you'll get stampeded. You have to know, you 87 00:07:16,079 --> 00:07:19,600 have to have a better context for the market. And that's what Elliott wave 88 00:07:19,639 --> 00:07:25,759 analysis provides us. It provides us a much much better context where we are 89 00:07:25,800 --> 00:07:30,079 in the overall trend. Hey, you know what happens to two contrarians at 90 00:07:30,120 --> 00:07:35,959 the bull own at pump pump alone right in Spain? Right, what happens 91 00:07:36,000 --> 00:07:42,920 to contrarians there? They get go or get right over run over. So 92 00:07:43,360 --> 00:07:48,879 but but often though being a contrarian really is the way to go, right, 93 00:07:50,800 --> 00:07:53,920 you have to know when to as you said it, right, you 94 00:07:53,959 --> 00:07:57,040 have to be you have to know when to be a contrarian. You can't 95 00:07:57,040 --> 00:08:01,720 be a contrarian on you have to know when to be a contrarian. Right, 96 00:08:01,279 --> 00:08:07,480 So at this point is I guess, I guess you already answered the 97 00:08:07,519 --> 00:08:11,439 question. But you know this bowl market here has been going on quite a 98 00:08:11,439 --> 00:08:18,920 while. It's resistance more or less called where it was heading. Um, 99 00:08:20,199 --> 00:08:22,480 I guess I guess we sit back and we wait. Huh, Well, 100 00:08:22,480 --> 00:08:26,839 I can give you some specifics. Let me give you some specifics for those 101 00:08:26,920 --> 00:08:31,240 that are team they're playing the whole game. Um, right now, we 102 00:08:31,360 --> 00:08:37,440 have support in forty two seventy five, the forty three sixteen, forty three 103 00:08:37,519 --> 00:08:41,480 seventeen, that's the support we've been focusing on. As long as the market 104 00:08:41,519 --> 00:08:48,440 holds over that support, I'm looking to see if we generate a structure that's 105 00:08:48,559 --> 00:08:52,679 next going to pointing us to forty five hundred. So, assuming the market 106 00:08:52,720 --> 00:08:56,480 holds that support and gives me that next setup, I'm going to be looking 107 00:08:56,519 --> 00:09:03,120 to a rally to forty five hundred. Now that will be a very key 108 00:09:03,200 --> 00:09:09,120 point. If the market breaks down from that forty five hundred top in a 109 00:09:09,200 --> 00:09:13,799 five wave structure, that's likely going to tell me we're going back down to 110 00:09:13,879 --> 00:09:18,559 three thousand or lower. And I know that sounds wild, but that's the 111 00:09:18,600 --> 00:09:22,919 way the structure is set up right now. If at any point in Timmic, 112 00:09:22,159 --> 00:09:26,720 whether it's from the high we struck at about forty four forty eight, 113 00:09:26,159 --> 00:09:31,480 or if we go to forty five hundred and then get a five wave structure 114 00:09:31,559 --> 00:09:35,559 down that breaks support, that opens the door to a setup that gives us 115 00:09:35,559 --> 00:09:41,960 a crash later this year. Okay, However, however, if the market 116 00:09:41,000 --> 00:09:46,919 continues, Yeah, but these are the parameters. If the market continues to 117 00:09:46,000 --> 00:09:50,360 hold the support and all pull back door corrected, and we get the forty 118 00:09:50,360 --> 00:09:56,440 five hundred, and we pull back correctively again to move back over forty five 119 00:09:56,559 --> 00:10:00,399 hundred from there could be a key long entry for some that the like a 120 00:10:00,399 --> 00:10:03,519 lot of risk, because that's set up with pointing uts directly up to forty 121 00:10:03,559 --> 00:10:09,360 eight hundred pretty quickly. I guess it comes down to what Yogi Berra said 122 00:10:09,919 --> 00:10:13,600 in his Infinite Wisdom, when you come to a fork in the road, 123 00:10:13,720 --> 00:10:18,440 take it. Yeah, exactly, all right, so exactly, but you 124 00:10:18,480 --> 00:10:22,399 have to be able to recognize that that's the only issue. Okay, let's 125 00:10:22,440 --> 00:10:26,320 look at all right, dollar, what are we seeing with the dollar? 126 00:10:28,279 --> 00:10:33,799 I will say that I'm looking for again, it depends on your time frame. 127 00:10:35,159 --> 00:10:39,559 I'm looking for a rally, probably back up towards the one five, 128 00:10:39,679 --> 00:10:43,080 one oh six, one oh seven region on the dollar, and then I'm 129 00:10:43,080 --> 00:10:48,320 looking for a multi month pull back again. Effectively, what I'm seeing is 130 00:10:48,360 --> 00:10:54,240 that the market is going to chop within a range for it could be as 131 00:10:54,279 --> 00:10:58,840 long as the next five to ten years. I'm looking at a major range 132 00:11:00,879 --> 00:11:03,600 in the dollar. Now, yeah, fascinating. Well, you know, 133 00:11:03,919 --> 00:11:09,559 nobody a few people out there were really forecasting the strength in the dollar, 134 00:11:09,919 --> 00:11:16,039 and I guess in a large measure that's what really caused a short squeeze right 135 00:11:16,200 --> 00:11:20,679 in the dollar. You know, the old thing that the death of the 136 00:11:20,720 --> 00:11:26,919 dollar has been greatly exaggerated, right exactly. In my opinion, we were 137 00:11:26,960 --> 00:11:30,720 looking for a rally in the dollar. I didn't think we were going to 138 00:11:30,799 --> 00:11:33,360 go over one to eleven on the Dixie, but we went as high as 139 00:11:33,399 --> 00:11:37,639 one fifteen. But I was looking for you know, I was looking for 140 00:11:37,679 --> 00:11:41,840 a turn in the dollar at the time. It definitely spiked through my one 141 00:11:41,840 --> 00:11:46,519 to eleven right to the one fifteen and then spike right back down. So 142 00:11:46,720 --> 00:11:50,320 you know, I guess there was some type of a throw over move. 143 00:11:50,600 --> 00:11:54,919 But now I'm looking for, you know, pretty much a long term consolidation 144 00:11:54,039 --> 00:11:58,879 in the dollar. And I think that long term consolidation, I think it 145 00:11:58,919 --> 00:12:01,840 could take us at least at least three to five years. But if we 146 00:12:01,960 --> 00:12:05,720 get that long term consolidation, I think it'll set us up for another rally 147 00:12:05,840 --> 00:12:11,039 higher in the dollar and as we look out towards the end of this decade 148 00:12:11,080 --> 00:12:18,120 into the next. Okay, So now let's look at the metals markets. 149 00:12:18,639 --> 00:12:22,159 Um, you know, they never seek, they never fail to disappoint at 150 00:12:22,200 --> 00:12:28,200 some level or another. Right, pretty much? It definitely, it definitely 151 00:12:28,240 --> 00:12:31,799 has pulled back deeper than I had initially wanted to see, but the overall 152 00:12:31,840 --> 00:12:37,720 structure remains the same. It's basically a corrective pullback that should set up the 153 00:12:37,759 --> 00:12:43,480 next major, major bull move in the metals. Okay, So so we're 154 00:12:43,480 --> 00:12:46,080 in a consolidation there as well, then, right? Yes, Okay, 155 00:12:46,480 --> 00:12:50,440 So how much lower can it go? Could it go down to seventeen hundreds 156 00:12:50,480 --> 00:12:56,399 and mid seventeen hundreds or are we looking definitely not my not my expectation. 157 00:12:56,799 --> 00:13:00,679 I'm looking for us to bottom out, you know, I'm where in this 158 00:13:00,799 --> 00:13:05,240 nineteen hundred region, okay, in the nineteen hundred. Yeah, you know, 159 00:13:05,320 --> 00:13:09,759 like I'm not good at this. That's why I have people like you 160 00:13:09,759 --> 00:13:13,360 guys in because I just don't know. I'm the first to admit it, 161 00:13:13,960 --> 00:13:20,480 um, but I do. I do find it kind of interesting that that 162 00:13:22,000 --> 00:13:26,240 it could be so so misunderstood, you know, And so I will tell 163 00:13:26,320 --> 00:13:30,240 you. I'm not going to tell you that I know for certain there's nothing. 164 00:13:30,399 --> 00:13:33,240 I mean, I used to be a tax attorning many many years ago, 165 00:13:33,679 --> 00:13:37,399 and he needs to have a joke. There's only three definite things in 166 00:13:37,440 --> 00:13:41,279 life, and everybody knows two death taxes, and then we added and then 167 00:13:41,320 --> 00:13:43,919 we added tax reform. But you know that's an old tax. It's hardy 168 00:13:43,919 --> 00:13:48,480 to joke. But you know the thoughts of that. An there's nothing definite 169 00:13:48,480 --> 00:13:52,600 in whites, but we look at the market through a perspective of probabilities. 170 00:13:52,240 --> 00:13:56,799 Well that's really all it is. I'm a recovering attorney myself here, of 171 00:13:58,000 --> 00:14:01,480 you didn't then we ever talked about it. And look, it's like you 172 00:14:01,519 --> 00:14:07,399 say, you know there's certain things you know unknown you know who is it? 173 00:14:07,559 --> 00:14:13,000 Rumsfeld said, there is known unknowns, and there's unknown unknowns and right, 174 00:14:13,200 --> 00:14:18,559 we're dealing with more of those unknown unknowns than I think we ever have 175 00:14:18,799 --> 00:14:22,480 before. I don't know, we we always have, you know, it's 176 00:14:22,600 --> 00:14:26,200 it's a recency bias to some extent. We always have our chal oranges. 177 00:14:26,440 --> 00:14:30,879 There are always issues that come up in life and in the markets, and 178 00:14:30,960 --> 00:14:33,840 you know, yeah, the issues may be different, but overall the challenges 179 00:14:33,879 --> 00:14:39,360 are generally the same. Okay. So you know, I know you don't 180 00:14:39,360 --> 00:14:43,159 really talk about the war in Ukraine and all that, except as it maybe 181 00:14:43,159 --> 00:14:52,480 it affects affects markets. But you got any opinions on it? What's up? 182 00:14:52,720 --> 00:14:58,080 Yea? You know? I actually I actually um gave a I gave 183 00:14:58,159 --> 00:15:03,200 the keynote address at the Money Show in Las Vegas, and we had a 184 00:15:03,279 --> 00:15:07,639 question and answer session after I finished my speech, and there was an older 185 00:15:07,679 --> 00:15:09,960 gentleman I've just wrote about this. There was an old gentleman that that stood 186 00:15:11,039 --> 00:15:13,480 up and asked the question. He said, what's my opinion about what's going 187 00:15:13,559 --> 00:15:18,720 to happen in the market if there's a the session and cessation of fighting? 188 00:15:20,519 --> 00:15:22,720 So, you know, being a lawyer, I decided to answer his question 189 00:15:22,879 --> 00:15:28,399 with a question, and I asked him, well, what happened what do 190 00:15:28,440 --> 00:15:33,279 you think happened to the market when what happened on the day that Russia entered 191 00:15:33,519 --> 00:15:39,120 Ukraine? What happened on the exact day of the invasion of Ukraine. So 192 00:15:39,200 --> 00:15:43,360 he said to him, well, clearly the market went down. So I 193 00:15:43,399 --> 00:15:46,879 said, I think they're going to be a little shocked if I tell you 194 00:15:46,360 --> 00:15:54,559 the market began a ten plus percent rally on the exact announcement that Russia entered 195 00:15:54,679 --> 00:15:58,600 Ukraine. And I literally have to tell him, you know, you have 196 00:16:00,000 --> 00:16:03,639 to take your chin up off the floor. So you know, I wrote 197 00:16:03,679 --> 00:16:10,279 an article about this actually just today on Seeking Alpha, literally about this exact 198 00:16:10,360 --> 00:16:14,519 issue about you know, how events out there. We all have a certain 199 00:16:14,559 --> 00:16:18,759 expectation of what events are going to do to the market. Sometimes we're right, 200 00:16:19,120 --> 00:16:23,360 sometimes we're wrong. But why would we be wrong if on the day 201 00:16:23,399 --> 00:16:29,799 that Russia enters Ukraine that ain't they invade, the market's going to start a 202 00:16:29,879 --> 00:16:36,080 really strong rally. That makes no sense. Another example was when we had 203 00:16:36,159 --> 00:16:41,600 the October thirteenth CPI report, everybody was so certain that it's worth that expected 204 00:16:41,639 --> 00:16:47,799 we'd be dropping five percent. We actually rallied six percent off that morning low 205 00:16:47,919 --> 00:16:52,080 that day, So you know, the question is why does this happen? 206 00:16:52,320 --> 00:16:56,519 It's because we're looking in the wrong place. Events can be a catalyst to 207 00:16:56,600 --> 00:17:00,960 a market move, it doesn't necessarily mean that the substance of the event will 208 00:17:02,000 --> 00:17:06,359 provide the direction for that market move, and we see that so often. 209 00:17:07,359 --> 00:17:11,319 Yeah, and that's what people have an archlimic stuffy Yeah, and I will 210 00:17:11,400 --> 00:17:17,799 admit to Yeah, I'm no expert in it either, but certain things you 211 00:17:17,960 --> 00:17:22,319 just expect to happen. Who has it to? Eisenhower said, things are 212 00:17:22,799 --> 00:17:26,519 things are more like they are now than they've ever been before, right, 213 00:17:30,440 --> 00:17:34,880 that's right, right, Yeah, but Eisenhower said it, And I know, 214 00:17:36,279 --> 00:17:41,480 you know, so I love that we can really be somewhat humble about 215 00:17:41,519 --> 00:17:47,880 it, that we really can't tell, you know, with the specificity that 216 00:17:48,640 --> 00:17:53,519 so many people out there want, and that things you believe certain things, 217 00:17:53,920 --> 00:17:56,759 and then they turn out not to be true and you turn out to be 218 00:17:56,880 --> 00:18:02,640 wrong. Right, I mean, that's really what colors down to. So 219 00:18:03,839 --> 00:18:08,400 that's why we don't ollow events really well, well, we'll notice events to 220 00:18:08,559 --> 00:18:14,799 be potential catalysts, but the substance of the event really doesn't matter to us. 221 00:18:15,720 --> 00:18:18,920 Yeah, Yeah, And I totally totally agree with that I think. 222 00:18:19,880 --> 00:18:26,680 I think it just it's just we make assumptions in life, and then when 223 00:18:26,720 --> 00:18:32,880 the assumptions don't happen, we make excuses for the assumptions not happening, right 224 00:18:33,200 --> 00:18:37,839 and yeah, so but all right, any other markets, interest rates, 225 00:18:37,920 --> 00:18:42,039 interest rates, everybody's talking about interest rates. Well, we've been consolidating for 226 00:18:42,279 --> 00:18:48,279 quite some time here um and ultimately, I mean, I think maybe we 227 00:18:48,359 --> 00:18:52,400 can get one more fight down, maybe, but I'm looking for this to 228 00:18:52,680 --> 00:18:57,039 resolve higher as we look out towards the end of the year. I don't 229 00:18:57,119 --> 00:19:02,880 have any structure that is clear early telling me that I want to put a 230 00:19:02,960 --> 00:19:07,880 lot of money to it just yet. But the annual path seems suggesting that 231 00:19:08,000 --> 00:19:14,680 we're this consolidation will ultimately result in another leg higher over the next half a 232 00:19:14,799 --> 00:19:18,559 year. It's the year, all right, all right, I can I 233 00:19:18,680 --> 00:19:22,759 think that's reasonable. By the way, I apologize, that's in TLT, 234 00:19:22,200 --> 00:19:26,559 which means rates coming down. Yeah, all right. So then and then 235 00:19:26,720 --> 00:19:32,920 everything is tied in with that. Housing, the housing stocks and how closely 236 00:19:32,960 --> 00:19:37,680 you follow the ETF home or this sector. But they seem to have been 237 00:19:37,920 --> 00:19:44,039 surprisingly strong in light of what's going on. Housing. It really is based 238 00:19:44,119 --> 00:19:49,640 upon pockets. So you know, I'm not I don't follow housing that closely. 239 00:19:51,079 --> 00:19:55,599 So I really am not going to a pind okay, But but angerous 240 00:19:55,720 --> 00:20:02,400 rates are tied into it, right and yeah, so so I just enjoy 241 00:20:02,559 --> 00:20:07,960 the exercise of watching it and then seeing whether it comes true or not. 242 00:20:08,480 --> 00:20:14,359 But all right, so, uh, any other markets we should be looking 243 00:20:14,400 --> 00:20:18,000 at here that you think are at turning points or major inflection points. Let's 244 00:20:18,039 --> 00:20:25,200 take a peep um USO. We know, do the OYL WTI, so 245 00:20:25,400 --> 00:20:30,599 on and so forth. I think we're going to see lower lows in that 246 00:20:30,799 --> 00:20:37,480 complex. Um. I'm looking for a small rally first. Ideally, uh, 247 00:20:37,759 --> 00:20:40,960 you know, for example, the USO, i'd like to see US 248 00:20:41,000 --> 00:20:47,279 approaching maybe I'd like to maybe approach US seventy the seventy region on USO. 249 00:20:48,359 --> 00:20:52,119 But ultimately I think we're going to see one more lower low before any sustainable 250 00:20:52,240 --> 00:20:57,079 rally begins. But if I'm being at longer term, going out to twenty 251 00:20:57,160 --> 00:21:02,400 twenty four twenty twenty five, I would probably sink a boat right now on 252 00:21:02,799 --> 00:21:06,839 the complex. But I would like to see one more lower low, okay, 253 00:21:07,160 --> 00:21:11,839 and that gas any un g? I actually I don't I don't track 254 00:21:11,960 --> 00:21:17,000 Nat Gass one of my other analysts do. For what I remember, um, 255 00:21:17,079 --> 00:21:19,480 I think he's looking a little bit lower. But overall, if you're 256 00:21:19,519 --> 00:21:26,440 taking a very dowd approach, it's a bottom instructure. Okay, all right, 257 00:21:26,920 --> 00:21:30,119 Well, hey, interesting times ahead, that's for sure. I just 258 00:21:30,200 --> 00:21:33,559 tell us the best place to find you how we connect with you on the 259 00:21:33,640 --> 00:21:40,279 web at Elliott Way and Trader dot net with two l's and two ts Elliott 260 00:21:40,319 --> 00:21:42,960 Wave Trader dot net. All right, and the link is in the show 261 00:21:44,039 --> 00:21:48,359 notes to this interview on Financial Survival Network dot com. You got a question 262 00:21:48,519 --> 00:21:53,119 for av shoot me an email k l at Kerry Lutz dot com. And 263 00:21:53,440 --> 00:21:57,000 while you're at the site, just to sign up for your free newsletter. 264 00:21:57,079 --> 00:22:02,000 Got one going out now I think you'll enjoy. By the way, if 265 00:22:02,039 --> 00:22:07,039 you're coming to the Rick Rules Symposium in booka raton Florida, seven twenty four 266 00:22:07,480 --> 00:22:11,880 to seven twenty seven of this year, I will be having hosting a little 267 00:22:12,000 --> 00:22:17,119 meet up and love to see you there. Just shoot the email and I'll 268 00:22:17,160 --> 00:22:19,839 make plans to do it. Ave a pleasure. Thanks so much, as 269 00:22:19,960 --> 00:22:25,920 always for shedding some light and a varying Marquis situation. Thank you very much 270 00:22:25,960 --> 00:22:30,680 for having me back. Thanks for listening to Carrie Letz's Financial Survival Network, 271 00:22:30,920 --> 00:22:36,319 your solution to today's trying times. For the latest, go to Financial Survival 272 00:22:36,480 --> 00:22:41,359 Network dot com. Financial Survival Network now more than ever,