To see. The thing is when you ask me timeframe, I don't know
how long it's going to take to get to one or the other, but
I can say that over the next few weeks to maybe a month's time,
the market is going to likely tell us which way it intends to go in
the bigger picture. You're listening to Carrie Letts's Financial Survival Network where you get
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more than ever. And welcome. You are listening to the Financial Survival Network.
I'm your host, Carrie Letts. Markets Well, they've been up or
sideways, they haven't really been declining much. And the person you're about to
hear from kind of cold this several months ago when the rest of the street
was panicking, he held tight. And who's the smarter person. I'm talking
about av Gilbert And the site is Elliott Wavetrader dot net. And if you've
got a question for Avvy myself kl at Kerry Lutz dot com is the email
address AVI. Welcome back, So you're mostly right. Well, thank you
for having me back, and you know that's the goal. I know it's
the goal. But there's a lot of people out there. Look, let's
face it, there's a million newsletters, a million people pretend to know what's
going on or claim they know what's going on, and yet often the boat
is missed. And yet in your case, I wouldn't say we've gone up
to new records yet, but you did say you expressed a confidence in the
market that was completely lacking from virtually every other forecaster out there. Yeah,
I mean the market. I can't say that the structure has been clean,
but the overall path has been relatively clear. I was actually discussing this with
some of our members today and when we were looking for the bottoming structure back
down in a thirty five hundred region on the S and P five hundred,
we we actually laid out the general path we expected for the market to take
up to forty three hundred plus. We expected we get a rally towards the
forty one hundred to forty one fifty region, a pull back consolidation back to
maybe about thirty eight hundred thirty nine hundred and then and then another rally to
forty three hundred plus. Overall, that's pretty much what the market has done
right now. And over the last week or two, I've been highlighting what
we call the danger zone entire members, and that was basically between forty three
seventy five to about forty four thirty three, about fifty point fifty to sixty
point zone that we call the danger zone that we were reaching before we topped.
And I said, from this zone, we could see a very sizable
decline. But I'm going to need to see something very very specific off that
top for me to consider that we're going to be seeing a very very sizable
decline. That's started yet and I haven't seen it yet. So what is
the tip off? What particular formation, what activity is it? Volumetric?
Is is it piercing? Support levels? Two hundred day moving average? What
are we looking at? Well, it's basically an elliot wave construct. I'm
looking for whether the market gives us five waves down off a high or simply
a corrective back off a high, and each one will give me a different
action to do. Okay, all right, So we're looking for the next
wave and well, what you know, you've been following the market for decades.
Here, what's your gut telling you? I gotta tell you, I
have learned many, many years ago to avoid gut trading. For me,
all I want to know is what is the market telling me? What is
my gut dinner tell me? Is one thing. I just wanted to know
what the market is telling me, And the market is telling me to be
very very cautious. At this point in time when everybody started getting very very
bullish as we were heading to forty four hundred, I was telling everybody,
guys, it's time to now race stops on all your holdings and or raise
cash because we are a very very dangerous posture right now, and we have
to let the market let us know over the next couple of weeks exactly what
we need to do, whether we're going to short the market, or whether
we're going to go back into the market and possibly look at the next higher
target of maybe forty eight hundred on the SMP back to the highs uh huh.
Okay, So you got a time frame, you know, they always
say you could ask somebody where the market's going, or you could ask them
when it's going to go. But you should never predict both because invariably it'll
be wrong to see. The thing is, when you ask me timeframe,
I don't know how long it's going to take to get to one or the
other, but I can say that over the next few weeks to maybe a
month's time, the market is going to likely tell us which way it intends
to go in the bigger picture. Okay, I'll buy that, because you
know it's there are times when you just you can't really tell, but caution
should be the buy word. But what about the concept that markets markets climb
on a wall of worry? I mean, I mean, what they're really
saying is it's more of a contrarian perspective. You know, when everybody is
bullish, that's when you get a market high. When everybody is barish,
that's when you get a market low. And you know, the extent,
the extent to which people the extent to which people will be following that wall
of worry is what is going to tell you how far are you from a
market top? You know how much of worry is there, and that I'll
tell you how far you are from the market top. I think it was
pretty clear that last week, there really wasn't much in the way of worry
as many of the people that I know that have been bearish for this twenty
seven percent rally started turning bullish. There really isn't much surprize that we got
to pull back here. Okay, So you can't just be a contrarian,
though, right, because now sometimes the masses are correct, right, yes,
and that and that's that's the thing that Elliott wave analysis tells us.
You know, if you try, if the bulls are running and you try
to be contrarian, oftentimes you'll get stampeded. You have to know, you
have to have a better context for the market. And that's what Elliott wave
analysis provides us. It provides us a much much better context where we are
in the overall trend. Hey, you know what happens to two contrarians at
the bull own at pump pump alone right in Spain? Right, what happens
to contrarians there? They get go or get right over run over. So
but but often though being a contrarian really is the way to go, right,
you have to know when to as you said it, right, you
have to be you have to know when to be a contrarian. You can't
be a contrarian on you have to know when to be a contrarian. Right,
So at this point is I guess, I guess you already answered the
question. But you know this bowl market here has been going on quite a
while. It's resistance more or less called where it was heading. Um,
I guess I guess we sit back and we wait. Huh, Well,
I can give you some specifics. Let me give you some specifics for those
that are team they're playing the whole game. Um, right now, we
have support in forty two seventy five, the forty three sixteen, forty three
seventeen, that's the support we've been focusing on. As long as the market
holds over that support, I'm looking to see if we generate a structure that's
next going to pointing us to forty five hundred. So, assuming the market
holds that support and gives me that next setup, I'm going to be looking
to a rally to forty five hundred. Now that will be a very key
point. If the market breaks down from that forty five hundred top in a
five wave structure, that's likely going to tell me we're going back down to
three thousand or lower. And I know that sounds wild, but that's the
way the structure is set up right now. If at any point in Timmic,
whether it's from the high we struck at about forty four forty eight,
or if we go to forty five hundred and then get a five wave structure
down that breaks support, that opens the door to a setup that gives us
a crash later this year. Okay, However, however, if the market
continues, Yeah, but these are the parameters. If the market continues to
hold the support and all pull back door corrected, and we get the forty
five hundred, and we pull back correctively again to move back over forty five
hundred from there could be a key long entry for some that the like a
lot of risk, because that's set up with pointing uts directly up to forty
eight hundred pretty quickly. I guess it comes down to what Yogi Berra said
in his Infinite Wisdom, when you come to a fork in the road,
take it. Yeah, exactly, all right, so exactly, but you
have to be able to recognize that that's the only issue. Okay, let's
look at all right, dollar, what are we seeing with the dollar?
I will say that I'm looking for again, it depends on your time frame.
I'm looking for a rally, probably back up towards the one five,
one oh six, one oh seven region on the dollar, and then I'm
looking for a multi month pull back again. Effectively, what I'm seeing is
that the market is going to chop within a range for it could be as
long as the next five to ten years. I'm looking at a major range
in the dollar. Now, yeah, fascinating. Well, you know,
nobody a few people out there were really forecasting the strength in the dollar,
and I guess in a large measure that's what really caused a short squeeze right
in the dollar. You know, the old thing that the death of the
dollar has been greatly exaggerated, right exactly. In my opinion, we were
looking for a rally in the dollar. I didn't think we were going to
go over one to eleven on the Dixie, but we went as high as
one fifteen. But I was looking for you know, I was looking for
a turn in the dollar at the time. It definitely spiked through my one
to eleven right to the one fifteen and then spike right back down. So
you know, I guess there was some type of a throw over move.
But now I'm looking for, you know, pretty much a long term consolidation
in the dollar. And I think that long term consolidation, I think it
could take us at least at least three to five years. But if we
get that long term consolidation, I think it'll set us up for another rally
higher in the dollar and as we look out towards the end of this decade
into the next. Okay, So now let's look at the metals markets.
Um, you know, they never seek, they never fail to disappoint at
some level or another. Right, pretty much? It definitely, it definitely
has pulled back deeper than I had initially wanted to see, but the overall
structure remains the same. It's basically a corrective pullback that should set up the
next major, major bull move in the metals. Okay, So so we're
in a consolidation there as well, then, right? Yes, Okay,
So how much lower can it go? Could it go down to seventeen hundreds
and mid seventeen hundreds or are we looking definitely not my not my expectation.
I'm looking for us to bottom out, you know, I'm where in this
nineteen hundred region, okay, in the nineteen hundred. Yeah, you know,
like I'm not good at this. That's why I have people like you
guys in because I just don't know. I'm the first to admit it,
um, but I do. I do find it kind of interesting that that
it could be so so misunderstood, you know, And so I will tell
you. I'm not going to tell you that I know for certain there's nothing.
I mean, I used to be a tax attorning many many years ago,
and he needs to have a joke. There's only three definite things in
life, and everybody knows two death taxes, and then we added and then
we added tax reform. But you know that's an old tax. It's hardy
to joke. But you know the thoughts of that. An there's nothing definite
in whites, but we look at the market through a perspective of probabilities.
Well that's really all it is. I'm a recovering attorney myself here, of
you didn't then we ever talked about it. And look, it's like you
say, you know there's certain things you know unknown you know who is it?
Rumsfeld said, there is known unknowns, and there's unknown unknowns and right,
we're dealing with more of those unknown unknowns than I think we ever have
before. I don't know, we we always have, you know, it's
it's a recency bias to some extent. We always have our chal oranges.
There are always issues that come up in life and in the markets, and
you know, yeah, the issues may be different, but overall the challenges
are generally the same. Okay. So you know, I know you don't
really talk about the war in Ukraine and all that, except as it maybe
it affects affects markets. But you got any opinions on it? What's up?
Yea? You know? I actually I actually um gave a I gave
the keynote address at the Money Show in Las Vegas, and we had a
question and answer session after I finished my speech, and there was an older
gentleman I've just wrote about this. There was an old gentleman that that stood
up and asked the question. He said, what's my opinion about what's going
to happen in the market if there's a the session and cessation of fighting?
So, you know, being a lawyer, I decided to answer his question
with a question, and I asked him, well, what happened what do
you think happened to the market when what happened on the day that Russia entered
Ukraine? What happened on the exact day of the invasion of Ukraine. So
he said to him, well, clearly the market went down. So I
said, I think they're going to be a little shocked if I tell you
the market began a ten plus percent rally on the exact announcement that Russia entered
Ukraine. And I literally have to tell him, you know, you have
to take your chin up off the floor. So you know, I wrote
an article about this actually just today on Seeking Alpha, literally about this exact
issue about you know, how events out there. We all have a certain
expectation of what events are going to do to the market. Sometimes we're right,
sometimes we're wrong. But why would we be wrong if on the day
that Russia enters Ukraine that ain't they invade, the market's going to start a
really strong rally. That makes no sense. Another example was when we had
the October thirteenth CPI report, everybody was so certain that it's worth that expected
we'd be dropping five percent. We actually rallied six percent off that morning low
that day, So you know, the question is why does this happen?
It's because we're looking in the wrong place. Events can be a catalyst to
a market move, it doesn't necessarily mean that the substance of the event will
provide the direction for that market move, and we see that so often.
Yeah, and that's what people have an archlimic stuffy Yeah, and I will
admit to Yeah, I'm no expert in it either, but certain things you
just expect to happen. Who has it to? Eisenhower said, things are
things are more like they are now than they've ever been before, right,
that's right, right, Yeah, but Eisenhower said it, And I know,
you know, so I love that we can really be somewhat humble about
it, that we really can't tell, you know, with the specificity that
so many people out there want, and that things you believe certain things,
and then they turn out not to be true and you turn out to be
wrong. Right, I mean, that's really what colors down to. So
that's why we don't ollow events really well, well, we'll notice events to
be potential catalysts, but the substance of the event really doesn't matter to us.
Yeah, Yeah, And I totally totally agree with that I think.
I think it just it's just we make assumptions in life, and then when
the assumptions don't happen, we make excuses for the assumptions not happening, right
and yeah, so but all right, any other markets, interest rates,
interest rates, everybody's talking about interest rates. Well, we've been consolidating for
quite some time here um and ultimately, I mean, I think maybe we
can get one more fight down, maybe, but I'm looking for this to
resolve higher as we look out towards the end of the year. I don't
have any structure that is clear early telling me that I want to put a
lot of money to it just yet. But the annual path seems suggesting that
we're this consolidation will ultimately result in another leg higher over the next half a
year. It's the year, all right, all right, I can I
think that's reasonable. By the way, I apologize, that's in TLT,
which means rates coming down. Yeah, all right. So then and then
everything is tied in with that. Housing, the housing stocks and how closely
you follow the ETF home or this sector. But they seem to have been
surprisingly strong in light of what's going on. Housing. It really is based
upon pockets. So you know, I'm not I don't follow housing that closely.
So I really am not going to a pind okay, But but angerous
rates are tied into it, right and yeah, so so I just enjoy
the exercise of watching it and then seeing whether it comes true or not.
But all right, so, uh, any other markets we should be looking
at here that you think are at turning points or major inflection points. Let's
take a peep um USO. We know, do the OYL WTI, so
on and so forth. I think we're going to see lower lows in that
complex. Um. I'm looking for a small rally first. Ideally, uh,
you know, for example, the USO, i'd like to see US
approaching maybe I'd like to maybe approach US seventy the seventy region on USO.
But ultimately I think we're going to see one more lower low before any sustainable
rally begins. But if I'm being at longer term, going out to twenty
twenty four twenty twenty five, I would probably sink a boat right now on
the complex. But I would like to see one more lower low, okay,
and that gas any un g? I actually I don't I don't track
Nat Gass one of my other analysts do. For what I remember, um,
I think he's looking a little bit lower. But overall, if you're
taking a very dowd approach, it's a bottom instructure. Okay, all right,
Well, hey, interesting times ahead, that's for sure. I just
tell us the best place to find you how we connect with you on the
web at Elliott Way and Trader dot net with two l's and two ts Elliott
Wave Trader dot net. All right, and the link is in the show
notes to this interview on Financial Survival Network dot com. You got a question
for av shoot me an email k l at Kerry Lutz dot com. And
while you're at the site, just to sign up for your free newsletter.
Got one going out now I think you'll enjoy. By the way, if
you're coming to the Rick Rules Symposium in booka raton Florida, seven twenty four
to seven twenty seven of this year, I will be having hosting a little
meet up and love to see you there. Just shoot the email and I'll
make plans to do it. Ave a pleasure. Thanks so much, as
always for shedding some light and a varying Marquis situation. Thank you very much
for having me back. Thanks for listening to Carrie Letz's Financial Survival Network,
your solution to today's trying times. For the latest, go to Financial Survival
Network dot com. Financial Survival Network now more than ever,