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You know, the Federal Reserve jamed
interest rates up so fast. The economy

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is holding on, but we definitely
have you know, labor concerns how which

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has got to drive inflation up,
things of that nature. At the housing

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concerns. You know, we're going
to start seeing oil going up. They're

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talking about one hundred dollars of barrel
now. Maybe one hundred dollars of barrel

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now isn't what one hundred dollars of
barrel used to be ten years ago.

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But that's still expensive for oil that's
gonna show up in our pocket. So

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I see meaningful downside in the market
ahead. Now you are listening to Carrie

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00:00:32,799 --> 00:00:38,479
Let's Financial Survival Network, where you
get valuable information you just can't find anywhere

10
00:00:38,479 --> 00:00:44,679
else to thrive in today's trying times. You need the Financial Survival Network now

11
00:00:44,880 --> 00:00:49,640
more than ever. Go to Financial
Survival Network dot com and get your free

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00:00:49,679 --> 00:00:59,799
newsletter and gift. Financial Survival Network
now more than ever. And welcome.

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00:01:00,280 --> 00:01:03,359
You are listening to watching the Financial
Survival Network. I'm your host, Carry

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Lotts. Well markets, what are
they going to do? Our rates still

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going to go higher. The Fed
has taken a pause, but how long

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will that pause last four. That's
the question. I'd like to know your

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opinion. How high will rates go? In your opinion, will we hit

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double digits? Unlikely, but you
never know. Hey, send us an

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email k l at Kerry Lutz dot
com. Right now, we've got our

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good friend James Locke from poollock dot
com with us. Hey, James,

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great to have you back. And
so the rates, what do you think

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is going to happen here? I
mean today, Hey, it's September twenty

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five. Up until about a half
hour ago, when I looked at markets,

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they were pretty much read across the
board. Is this a portent of

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things to come? Or is it
all just temporary? Now? I would

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I would think it's in the ocasions
of things to come. You know,

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the Fed is indicated that we're going
to stay here for a while, and

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that actually spooked the markets a little
bit. You know when when they didn't

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raise rates the last at the last
meeting, they basically came out and said,

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hey, we didn't raise rates,
but you guys are all off target,

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right, We're not going to be
lowering as soon as you thought,

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right, And you know, when
when do they think that, you know,

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it's gonna come around. Probably we
might start here in chatter in the

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first quarter next year. But I
don't know that they're going to be cutting

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rates, you know, any time
soon, but as far as the market

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is concerned. And we'll come back
to the rates in a second. But

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when I was trading options, I
was always you know, I'd love looking

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at charts and graphs and then things
like that. So this one popped up

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on me. The the equal waiting. So if you think the SP five

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hundred equal weigh everything, we're two
percent lower than the two hundred day moving

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average. And I know it's just
numbers, right, and you got to

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take things in big pictures. But
you know, history maybe doesn't repeat itself,

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but it's certainly shadows when it rhymes
is and it twains Excuse to me,

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that's right? Please say so the
you know the number of times that

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this has happened before August of ninety
eight, January of two thousand, September

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of oh seven, October of twenty
eighteen, in March of twenty twenty,

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right, those are all prominent dates
in financial history, so to speak.

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Right, So I don't know what
the future has got to hold, you

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know, no one, no one
has that crystal wall. I can only

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look backwards, just like everyone else. But I see, you know,

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the Federal Reserve jammed interest rates up
so fast. The economy is holding on,

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but we definitely have you know,
labor concerns how which has got to

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drive inflation up, things of that
nature, the housing concerns. You know,

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we're going to start seeing oil going
up. They're talking about one hundred

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dollars a barrel now. Maybe one
hundred dollars a barrel now isn't what one

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hundred dollars a barrel used to be
ten years ago. But that's still expensive

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for oil, and that's gonna show
up in our pocket. So I see

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meaningful downside in the market ahead.
Now does that mean there's gonna be a

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crash? I don't think so.
But I have no reason to sit here

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and say that. You know,
you should just be in there with both

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fists trying to buy. But there's
bargains. I mean, look, Baradzon

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Wireless, I can get an eight
percent to dividend. There is it worth

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the risk for a Verizon? And
I'm not asking you to recommend Verizon.

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I'm just giving it as an example
of a stock that that's really pumping out

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the dividends or like a stock like
Wanderines, right, yeah, really absolutely,

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and and you know what our you
know, our our our a we're

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pumping out about four and a half
four point six percent dividend portfolio on our

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stocks. I'm not anti stock walktever. I'm a bowl just like just like

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the next guy. Right. I
want the market to go up, but

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in this environment, I think what
you're talking about when Morizon blaw brands is

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you want to make sure you're getting
paid, right. We want to make

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sure we're we're getting paid the right
amount to take that risk. So we're

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taking risk for reward sake, not
just risk for risk sake. Uh,

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you know kind of you know Willy
Nilly and and that sort of thing.

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I mean, I have a client. I love him daily. He's awesome.

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He's just in love with Apple stock. Now, I can't tell you,

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like all Apple does is go up. I mean, Apple only goes

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up, right, that's kind but
you know at some point it might not.

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Or you know the other thing is
at some point, you know maybe

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you need to diversify that a little
bit. And that's where you're right.

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There are lots of bargains out there. So you know, we could have

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a trickle down in the SMP and
all the way back down to you know,

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four thousand or something like that,
and you know, break the bank

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anywhere. But there's certainly lots of
stocks and dividend pat stocks out there that

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you know, can provide opportunity that
will hold their value and pay you a

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good dividend along the way. So
how much risk you think there is,

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uh, you know, in these
higher dividend paying stocks if the market,

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the broader market takes a big dive. I think if you're in the right

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ones, you should be able to
break even. I don't I mean a

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big dive, you know, when
you say a big dive like twenty twenty

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two we're talking about. Yeah,
if you talk about you know, once

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you start talking about over twenty percent, it's hard to get yourself to that

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break even point. You know.
We were able to in twenty twenty two,

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you know, to come out in
the black very by very little,

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uh you know. And of course
consequently those same dividend stocks aren't going to

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be soaring as much as they were
this year, right, So you know,

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he didn't he didn't get hit on
the way down, you're not going

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to scoop. But on the way
back. Uh, once you start talking

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about thirty thirty five percent drop,
now it's hard. You know, everything's

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you know, when the tide goes
that low, everything, all ships are

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going to sink a little. But
I mean, if you know, I

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was even just talking about you're talking
ten percent drop. There's you know,

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there's no reason you shouldn't be able
to maintain these higher dividend pieces. And

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and like I said, and even
find some nuggets in there that are moving

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in the right direction. So I
don't know that we're going to have a

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thirty percent drop. Don't don't quote
me on that one. Hey, nobody

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knows the future, but we can
kind of try to guess. We got

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to guess, right, you don't
know the future, You've got to guess,

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So I guess, is there a
defensive posture to take? So it's

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dividends talks. Yeah, they'll oututions
and you know what's what's crazy, and

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it's it's even you know sometimes I
even when I look at things, but

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you know, I always like the
real estate, you know world, and

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this might you know, interest rates
as high as they are, you know,

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there's only there's only so much land
out there. And you know,

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we're seeing people with these very low
mortgages holding on to their their properties now,

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right, So for sure, So
now there's like now there's you're reducing

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inventory kind of naturally, or or
the FED kind of reduced inventory naturally,

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or that might have been an effect
of what happened. And guess what.

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Guess what that does. That's going
to push you know, pressure on inflation,

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which is what we're trying to fight
and in the long you know,

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in the long run. So you
know, I do think there's value in

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the in the real estate as well. What I would hope happens. And

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you know, I know this is
almost you know, and then we're gonna

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happen. But we got this government
shut down, you know, kind of

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hanging over us on October one,
and you know, that's that's a that's

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a storm that's brewing. But if
people can communicate and not get to a

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shutdown, but figure out a way
to balance the budget, right, that's

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going to help curb inflation greater than
any you know, any quarter point with

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it. By the fact, that's
never gonna happen, right, I mean,

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you're ever going to balance the budget. I'm praying, hey, right,

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happen back in the nineties with Clinton, right right, A lots of

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fake balancing because they were stealing from
the Social Security Trust Fund. And there's

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no trust fund left so they don't
have that little scam to pull anymore.

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So how do they do it right? Well? And then listen, I'm

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with you, I don't. I
don't know that they're going to be able

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to balance it. And I think
shutting the government down that's a that's just

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a political tactic move. It hurts
more people than it helps. You know,

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in the long run, you know, your social Security check is still

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going to get paid if the government
shuts down on the first, So there

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isn't you know, that kind of
concern. But any sort of movement to

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you know better fiscal conservativist is going
to, like I said, make a

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00:10:05,120 --> 00:10:11,200
much bigger effect on the American people
and their pockets down the line. You

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00:10:11,200 --> 00:10:15,879
know, commerce always holds that card
and they never play it because you know,

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it doesn't doesn't get votes, right, and you know that's the that's

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the problem. Yeah, So I'd
like to I'd like to see them,

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I'd like to see them do more
to work together to avoid this government shutdown

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on the first in such a way
that's actually going to help UH. Perfect

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relationship, you know, that would
be that would be the ideal situation.

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So where are we going to end
up the year here, James, your

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00:10:39,600 --> 00:10:45,840
prediction, I don't I don't see
us. I think to fed whenever they

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have their meeting in November is they're
going to keep beating the dram and they're

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going to push that, you know, whenever races, you are going to

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be cut even further out. I'd
be surprised if we heard any kind of

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positive news out of them. So
I think we end up, you know,

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00:11:01,679 --> 00:11:07,120
closer to four thousand on the SMP
than we do. To God,

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00:11:07,519 --> 00:11:13,240
We're gonna be checking you up and
we're gonna see how close your prediction comes

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00:11:13,279 --> 00:11:16,879
to reality. James. Appreciate your
coming on. Hey, thank you.

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00:11:16,000 --> 00:11:22,279
A question for James or myself?
Shoot me an email k l at Krylotts

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00:11:22,360 --> 00:11:26,840
dot com. And if you got
to if you want to find James's link,

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00:11:28,120 --> 00:11:31,120
Poollock dot com, it's in the
show notes to this interview on Financial

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00:11:31,159 --> 00:11:35,600
Survival Network dot com. Just click
it take you right there. While you're

162
00:11:35,639 --> 00:11:39,600
there, sign up for your free
newsletter. James, appreciate your time coming

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00:11:39,639 --> 00:11:43,799
on with us, and we will
talk to you again by the end of

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00:11:43,799 --> 00:11:46,919
the year and hold your feet to
the fire. Yeah that's fine, I

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love it. Thanks Carry, Thanks
for listening to Carry Letts's Financial Survival Network,

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00:11:52,519 --> 00:11:58,320
your solution to today's trying times.
For the latest, go to Financial

167
00:11:58,399 --> 00:12:03,000
Survival Network dot com. Financial Survival
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