You know, the Federal Reserve jamed interest rates up so fast. The economy
is holding on, but we definitely have you know, labor concerns how which
has got to drive inflation up, things of that nature. At the housing
concerns. You know, we're going to start seeing oil going up. They're
talking about one hundred dollars of barrel now. Maybe one hundred dollars of barrel
now isn't what one hundred dollars of barrel used to be ten years ago.
But that's still expensive for oil that's gonna show up in our pocket. So
I see meaningful downside in the market ahead. Now you are listening to Carrie
Let's Financial Survival Network, where you get valuable information you just can't find anywhere
else to thrive in today's trying times. You need the Financial Survival Network now
more than ever. Go to Financial Survival Network dot com and get your free
newsletter and gift. Financial Survival Network now more than ever. And welcome.
You are listening to watching the Financial Survival Network. I'm your host, Carry
Lotts. Well markets, what are they going to do? Our rates still
going to go higher. The Fed has taken a pause, but how long
will that pause last four. That's the question. I'd like to know your
opinion. How high will rates go? In your opinion, will we hit
double digits? Unlikely, but you never know. Hey, send us an
email k l at Kerry Lutz dot com. Right now, we've got our
good friend James Locke from poollock dot com with us. Hey, James,
great to have you back. And so the rates, what do you think
is going to happen here? I mean today, Hey, it's September twenty
five. Up until about a half hour ago, when I looked at markets,
they were pretty much read across the board. Is this a portent of
things to come? Or is it all just temporary? Now? I would
I would think it's in the ocasions of things to come. You know,
the Fed is indicated that we're going to stay here for a while, and
that actually spooked the markets a little bit. You know when when they didn't
raise rates the last at the last meeting, they basically came out and said,
hey, we didn't raise rates, but you guys are all off target,
right, We're not going to be lowering as soon as you thought,
right, And you know, when when do they think that, you know,
it's gonna come around. Probably we might start here in chatter in the
first quarter next year. But I don't know that they're going to be cutting
rates, you know, any time soon, but as far as the market
is concerned. And we'll come back to the rates in a second. But
when I was trading options, I was always you know, I'd love looking
at charts and graphs and then things like that. So this one popped up
on me. The the equal waiting. So if you think the SP five
hundred equal weigh everything, we're two percent lower than the two hundred day moving
average. And I know it's just numbers, right, and you got to
take things in big pictures. But you know, history maybe doesn't repeat itself,
but it's certainly shadows when it rhymes is and it twains Excuse to me,
that's right? Please say so the you know the number of times that
this has happened before August of ninety eight, January of two thousand, September
of oh seven, October of twenty eighteen, in March of twenty twenty,
right, those are all prominent dates in financial history, so to speak.
Right, So I don't know what the future has got to hold, you
know, no one, no one has that crystal wall. I can only
look backwards, just like everyone else. But I see, you know,
the Federal Reserve jammed interest rates up so fast. The economy is holding on,
but we definitely have you know, labor concerns how which has got to
drive inflation up, things of that nature, the housing concerns. You know,
we're going to start seeing oil going up. They're talking about one hundred
dollars a barrel now. Maybe one hundred dollars a barrel now isn't what one
hundred dollars a barrel used to be ten years ago. But that's still expensive
for oil, and that's gonna show up in our pocket. So I see
meaningful downside in the market ahead. Now does that mean there's gonna be a
crash? I don't think so. But I have no reason to sit here
and say that. You know, you should just be in there with both
fists trying to buy. But there's bargains. I mean, look, Baradzon
Wireless, I can get an eight percent to dividend. There is it worth
the risk for a Verizon? And I'm not asking you to recommend Verizon.
I'm just giving it as an example of a stock that that's really pumping out
the dividends or like a stock like Wanderines, right, yeah, really absolutely,
and and you know what our you know, our our our a we're
pumping out about four and a half four point six percent dividend portfolio on our
stocks. I'm not anti stock walktever. I'm a bowl just like just like
the next guy. Right. I want the market to go up, but
in this environment, I think what you're talking about when Morizon blaw brands is
you want to make sure you're getting paid, right. We want to make
sure we're we're getting paid the right amount to take that risk. So we're
taking risk for reward sake, not just risk for risk sake. Uh,
you know kind of you know Willy Nilly and and that sort of thing.
I mean, I have a client. I love him daily. He's awesome.
He's just in love with Apple stock. Now, I can't tell you,
like all Apple does is go up. I mean, Apple only goes
up, right, that's kind but you know at some point it might not.
Or you know the other thing is at some point, you know maybe
you need to diversify that a little bit. And that's where you're right.
There are lots of bargains out there. So you know, we could have
a trickle down in the SMP and all the way back down to you know,
four thousand or something like that, and you know, break the bank
anywhere. But there's certainly lots of stocks and dividend pat stocks out there that
you know, can provide opportunity that will hold their value and pay you a
good dividend along the way. So how much risk you think there is,
uh, you know, in these higher dividend paying stocks if the market,
the broader market takes a big dive. I think if you're in the right
ones, you should be able to break even. I don't I mean a
big dive, you know, when you say a big dive like twenty twenty
two we're talking about. Yeah, if you talk about you know, once
you start talking about over twenty percent, it's hard to get yourself to that
break even point. You know. We were able to in twenty twenty two,
you know, to come out in the black very by very little,
uh you know. And of course consequently those same dividend stocks aren't going to
be soaring as much as they were this year, right, So you know,
he didn't he didn't get hit on the way down, you're not going
to scoop. But on the way back. Uh, once you start talking
about thirty thirty five percent drop, now it's hard. You know, everything's
you know, when the tide goes that low, everything, all ships are
going to sink a little. But I mean, if you know, I
was even just talking about you're talking ten percent drop. There's you know,
there's no reason you shouldn't be able to maintain these higher dividend pieces. And
and like I said, and even find some nuggets in there that are moving
in the right direction. So I don't know that we're going to have a
thirty percent drop. Don't don't quote me on that one. Hey, nobody
knows the future, but we can kind of try to guess. We got
to guess, right, you don't know the future, You've got to guess,
So I guess, is there a defensive posture to take? So it's
dividends talks. Yeah, they'll oututions and you know what's what's crazy, and
it's it's even you know sometimes I even when I look at things, but
you know, I always like the real estate, you know world, and
this might you know, interest rates as high as they are, you know,
there's only there's only so much land out there. And you know,
we're seeing people with these very low mortgages holding on to their their properties now,
right, So for sure, So now there's like now there's you're reducing
inventory kind of naturally, or or the FED kind of reduced inventory naturally,
or that might have been an effect of what happened. And guess what.
Guess what that does. That's going to push you know, pressure on inflation,
which is what we're trying to fight and in the long you know,
in the long run. So you know, I do think there's value in
the in the real estate as well. What I would hope happens. And
you know, I know this is almost you know, and then we're gonna
happen. But we got this government shut down, you know, kind of
hanging over us on October one, and you know, that's that's a that's
a storm that's brewing. But if people can communicate and not get to a
shutdown, but figure out a way to balance the budget, right, that's
going to help curb inflation greater than any you know, any quarter point with
it. By the fact, that's never gonna happen, right, I mean,
you're ever going to balance the budget. I'm praying, hey, right,
happen back in the nineties with Clinton, right right, A lots of
fake balancing because they were stealing from the Social Security Trust Fund. And there's
no trust fund left so they don't have that little scam to pull anymore.
So how do they do it right? Well? And then listen, I'm
with you, I don't. I don't know that they're going to be able
to balance it. And I think shutting the government down that's a that's just
a political tactic move. It hurts more people than it helps. You know,
in the long run, you know, your social Security check is still
going to get paid if the government shuts down on the first, So there
isn't you know, that kind of concern. But any sort of movement to
you know better fiscal conservativist is going to, like I said, make a
much bigger effect on the American people and their pockets down the line. You
know, commerce always holds that card and they never play it because you know,
it doesn't doesn't get votes, right, and you know that's the that's
the problem. Yeah, So I'd like to I'd like to see them,
I'd like to see them do more to work together to avoid this government shutdown
on the first in such a way that's actually going to help UH. Perfect
relationship, you know, that would be that would be the ideal situation.
So where are we going to end up the year here, James, your
prediction, I don't I don't see us. I think to fed whenever they
have their meeting in November is they're going to keep beating the dram and they're
going to push that, you know, whenever races, you are going to
be cut even further out. I'd be surprised if we heard any kind of
positive news out of them. So I think we end up, you know,
closer to four thousand on the SMP than we do. To God,
We're gonna be checking you up and we're gonna see how close your prediction comes
to reality. James. Appreciate your coming on. Hey, thank you.
A question for James or myself? Shoot me an email k l at Krylotts
dot com. And if you got to if you want to find James's link,
Poollock dot com, it's in the show notes to this interview on Financial
Survival Network dot com. Just click it take you right there. While you're
there, sign up for your free newsletter. James, appreciate your time coming
on with us, and we will talk to you again by the end of
the year and hold your feet to the fire. Yeah that's fine, I
love it. Thanks Carry, Thanks for listening to Carry Letts's Financial Survival Network,
your solution to today's trying times. For the latest, go to Financial
Survival Network dot com. Financial Survival Network now more than ever,