Welcome to Fantasy Hockey Life, presented by fan Tracks, your source of information
and analysis to help you win your fantasy hockey league. Fuck up, not
a step on, stay lot f gosh. Here's your hosts, Jesse Sevier
and Victor Nuno. Fantasy Hockey Life back once again. It is Jesse Severe
from fan Tracks joining me across the glass, as they say, is Victor
Nuno from Daver Prospects. Victor, how you doing today? I'm doing awesome.
Jesse. It's gonna be it's gonna be back, and it's good to
hear how you're doing. How are you doing, man, I'm doing great.
I'm doing great. The summer is flying by and we are fully engaged
with these team previews. Victor, it's been a busy fantasy week. I
feel like I am definitely living that life this week with all the drafts,
slow draft going on everywhere, starting up, tidy drafts, all that type
of thing. But people might not know what that means. Victor. Do
you think people know what tidy means? Maybe you should explain it to them.
Yeah, we've been all up in the tidy the tiered dynasty league that
we set up last year. People said it couldn't be done, Jesse.
In fact, you're pre skeptical yourself. I'm one of them. I'm one
of them. Yeah, but it was a last year. It didn't really
look like a tier. It was flat, it was four divisions. We
got our winners, we were able to move people around. And now and
thanks to our good friend Brandon who makes some really nice images, we have
a website also thanks to him, and you can visualize the division that was
in my head from the beginning, and I think it's starting to make a
little bit more sense to people. You can see the top division, the
middle divisions, the bottom division, and this really is going to be like
a tier dynasty where you have to work your way up to the top.
You can get relegated to the bottom. And so we've been moving people around,
filling people in to their spots, getting new managers. We're gonna at
the end of this. We're at the time we're recording this, we have
actually just two spots left out of ninety six. So if you want in
to this really fun league, and you can read all about it at Fantasy
Hockeylife dot com, forward slash tidy t I d Y and you can get
on the waitlist if you're not going, if you don't, if you don't
not lucky enough to get in. But it's gonna be a great time.
The middle divisions are gonna play against each other to see who stays in Tier
two and who moves down to Tier three. It's gonna be a fun time.
So you and I jess here in different divisions, We're gonna work with
our division to score the most points to stay up in Tier two. It's
going to be a fun caveat So, yeah, it's a good time.
That's one of the perks of being a patron at fantasy hockey life. Yeah,
it'll be a weird subplot. It'll be fun. I've never done something
like that, but it will keep people engaged. I think late in the
season, maybe build a little bit of a league camaraderie. You might say,
hey, it's a tier dynasty. That's an oxymoron, because what if
I like to have prospects and I want to build not a maybe I don't
want to fully call it a tanking team, but a team that is based
on the future. Am I going to What's gonna happen? Look, if
you land in the very bottom position, you're in trouble. But there will
be plenty of people who get into this who are able to build a future
based team, a dynasty based team, but are able to thrive in the
league that they're in. And hey, you're building a dynasty team, So
Victor, it's gonna be fun and people can be a patron for that and
for many reasons we recommend it. But you don't have to be a patron
to get into our discord. The discord is free. You just have to
email us Fantasy Hockey Life at gmail dot com, hit Victor myself up at
Victor Newnio twelve or at fan Hockey Life, and Victor, I think that's
enough of the chitter chatter. We're going to get at her with Detroit Red
Wings talk right now. We are extremely pleased this day to be talking with
Max Boltman of the Athletic on the Detroit Red Wings. How you doing today,
Max, I'm doing great, guys, thanks for having me. Oh,
it's our pleasure, our honor to talk about these Detroit Red Wings,
a fascinating team. A couple of facts about the twenty twenty two twenty three
Detroit Red Wings fourth fewest shots in the NHL eight ninety save percentage was tied
for the eighth worst. Coupled with that, you can see how the season
came out. The STEVIEWIRA has been but slowburn rising so far point percentage is
increasing a little bit each year two seventy five, twenty nine, four fifty
one, last year forty eight. They peaked in late February where they were
still sitting with the twenty eight twenty two and eight mark. Then they finished
seven fifteen and two through the trade deadline and beyond still landed him twenty fifth
in points percentage. A lot of guys gone from what started out last year,
Tyler Tuzi, Philiponaic, Dominic Kubalik, Yaka Vrona, Alex Nandelkovic,
but there was some incoming talent. Do the Wings consider this year's team stronger
than last year's at least on paper? And do you see them when do
you see them challenging for a playoff spot? Max interesting that on paper question
because coming into last year there were a couple of really big names at the
top of the lineup who didn't actually end up playing much for them, that
being Tyler Bertuzzi, who broke both hands over the course of the year and
then obviously was traded, and Jacob rona who was in the player assistance program
for a lot of the year and then listen to the minors, traded.
If you asked it, probably at this time last year versus today, I
would guess their expectations are probably similar to what they would have been a year
ago. But I think because they were without those guys all of last season,
it comes out to them they should be better team this year than they
actually were last year, just maybe not all that much better on paper than
last year's team was. I think alex To Brinkett is more of a sure
thing than Jacob Bron, but there's a similar player type there right, kind
of this dead eye shooter, and I think to bring it is a level
up because he's actually put it together over these full seasons. He scored forty
goals twice. Verona scores at a crazy clip when he's on the ice,
but he's just not on the ice as much. And so then I think
they add in JT. Comfort I think can be a reasonable replacement for Tyler
Bertuzzi, and you see where one year over the next they've replaced those guys.
But the good news for them is the replacement is actually over not having
most both of those guys for most of the year. So that's where I
think the optimism is. I don't see him as a playoff team, but
I think they should be in the mix at least to come March, that
they're within striking distance and it should make for some more exciting hockey down the
stretch. One guy who will be leading the charge for that exciting hockey will
be Dylan Larkin. Yeah. Again, the bright spot of this team really,
I think, unavoidably is going to go down as the signature player of
this era of Red Wings hockey, which is not his fault because he has
been outstanding for a number of years here and in between. Presumably the streak
of playoff appearances in the next one and hopefully he'll still be going strong at
that time. His thirty two goals forty seven assists for seventy nine points in
eighty games line led the team by twenty three points. In shots shooting percentage
over one hundred shots taken, faceoff wins, faceoff win percentage, four time
on ice all led the team. The captain is now twenty seven starts an
eight point seven million per year, eight year deal this fall, signed just
before the trade deadline. When he was on the ice, the five on
five offense went from pretty miserable to league average at least twenty two percent increase
in expected goals for P sixty. Larkin is under the radar. How good
is this guy and how much better can at least his box score stats that
we're looking at get with the twenty three twenty four Wings. Yeah, that's
a great question of how much better they can. Yeah. I think that's
something that people have wondered throughout Larkin's tenure in Detroit, is what would this
player look like with a better supporting cast. I think you mentioned the shooting
percent. I think that's a really interesting thing to watch for people, especially
from a fantasy perspective. On one hand, you can look at it and
say, shot thirteen percent last season. That's three percent above his career average,
which you know of ten percent, which is really thirty percent higher than
that, and I think that could be a little scary for people. On
the other hand, I think you can look at it and say he shot
fourteen point six percent the year before. He actually already regressed last year into
those numbers. I think to brink it will help. I think my guess
is the numbers will stay right around there, whether it's seventy two points,
eighty five points, somewhere in that range. Right he had seventy nine last
year, That would be my guest for him right around thirty goals, right
around seventy five to eighty points. But you never know. You mix it,
Alex to brnk it should we should putting the puck on net a lot.
Dylan Larkin could be cleaning up some of those rebounds. Dylan ark And
could be getting some assists that Hen't wasn't getting last year by dishing to Alex
to brink it. So it is possible that he does have another level up
in him there. I just I think he's a great player, and I
think fantasy wise maybe has already hit what I think he will be. But
I think as he continues to grow, there is another level in here with
his defense that could make him an even more valuable player. And maybe if
you're maybe if you're in a bangers league or something, you can get some
kind of credit for that. But I think he's just a great player,
and certainly I think they're best player still a little more cider might give him
a run here. Hard to argue with that, but they certainly got another
really great player and Alex to bring it, and of course we have to
talk about him next. And he was a little disappointing, I think,
probably disappointing himself and a little disappointed with how things went down in Ottawa and
tried to make the best of that situation. I know that there was some
frustration with just like his being able to score, his shooting percentage was one
of the worst of his career. It's like almost five percentage points lower than
his average, and so that was a bit on the low end for him,
the lowest time on ice he's had in the past three seasons, and
his pdo IP in power play ip also all the lowest of his last three
seasons. So you have to imagine there's some positive regression coming here, and
especially in some of his underlyings, it certainly seems like he was snake bidden,
and I know some of the Ottawa press has described that like he hitting
the post and just getting a little bit unlucky. His contract four years at
some point eight million seems pretty reasonable for the high end score that he can
be second highest player on the team now behind captain Larkin. Sure seems like
he should get top tier deployment and regain some of that scoring prowess. So
Max, we have to know, do you think he can get back to
that point per game neighborhood he was in the past few seasons? Yes,
I do. Is Detroit going to be conducive to a forty goals season like
he did a couple of times in Chicago? My guess is not. He's
not going to be playing with any one quite like Patrick Kane, and I
think just Detroit and general knows that in order for their team to be successful,
there has to be a ton of defensive buying. But I think he
should be. He played a lot last year on the second line in Ottawa,
but with Josh Morris out, that wasn't quite as offensive a line as
I think you would have expected coming in. I think he should be playing
with Larkin a lot this year. Certainly he'll still be on the top power
play and maybe you get some positive regression just in that too. But my
guess is I think he does tick up right toward Larkin right around seventy five
to eighty points, and I think that would be a really successful year.
I think if he's thirty three, thirty four goals, seventy five or so
points, I think you're gonna be really happy with that if you're the Red
Wings. I don't know where he's going right now in fantasy. It'll be
interesting because he's one of these big offseason stories. I don't really think of
him as someone who goes crazy high and in drafts, although I admit that's
not my expertise, but I could see a world where he tacks a good
number onto what he did last season. Lucas Raymond, Boy, this is
a guy I'm curious about. Forty five points, seventeen goals, twenty eight
assists, and seventy four games last year under two shots to night seventeen twenty
three average time on ice. It seemed like a big regression from that fifty
seven point All Rookie Team season. Culprit seems to have been in part a
dropping shot total on the same shooting percentage of twelve point five percent. A
different version would note he also collided at Ben Sharratt turning into practice and sustained
a lower body injury that cost him eight games, and then he went scoreless
in the first five games back after that. Raymond's played a lot with Larking
over his first two years, and changes in this roster now have me worried
if that may be in doubt this year. You'll have to tell us if
that's the case. Is Raymond poised to jump back to that rookie season production
or even better, or is the second year more indicative of what Raymond is
going to be long term? I believe that his overall body of work and
pedigree says it's closer to what he was as I think he'll be better than
he was as a rookie long term. Up this guy was a top prospect
right and you knew two years ahead of his draft that he was a really
good player. He spent the draft year in the SHL, which when you're
a young player, is not going to give you gaudy point totals. But
he was tearing up his peers in his age group all the way up.
And I think for him to step right into the NHL and do what he
did gave you should have gave me a lot of confidence that, okay,
that this is who he is. Last year was a step back. I
think it does tell you that he's going to have to sort through some of
the adjustments maybe teams made on him, just the general adjustment to the pro
game that every young player has to take. Certainly, I think you want
to see him add muscle. That will be one of the biggest questions I
have coming into camp is does he look stronger? Because he look he can
fight through defenders a little better. But I do believe the Red Wings still
have a sixty plus point guy in Lucas Raymond. Is that this year?
Boy? They really hope so, And it might come down to who is
he playing with? Right I think it's not impossible if you could see him
on that line with Dylan Larkin and with alex to Brinkett. He's been with
Larkin the vast majority of his career so far. But it's also possible that
they are playing to bring in the Raymond on different lines. They're both smaller
offensive wingers. It wouldn't be shocking to see them split up, and if
that's the case, you could see Raymond's numbers take a little bit of a
hit. The Red Wings don't really have an offensive play driving center anywhere close
until on Larkin's level, Although injured. Coup is actually a really underrated passer,
and I could see Lucas Raymond's goal totals getting a bump if he plays
a lot with Cop, but certainly not to the neighborhood that I think I
would expect him if he's with Larkin. And the deployment is a huge thing
to watch here right from the beginning of training camp in late September. How
are they what looks are they going with? And I think it's going to
tell you a lot then, and it won't be decided, obviously, until
nothing's ever decided in the NHL. You can change your lines every single game
if you want to. But how they come out viewing that I think is
going to be a really good indicator of what kind of year Lucas Raymond will
have. I'm also curious to see on the power play, Alex de Brinket's
going to be in the spot that I think he has had the most success
at. He's gonna have to play on that opposite flank. He did it
a lot last year with David Perran. But when I was sorting through why
did his numbers dropped last year, one of the things I theorized was maybe
it's because he was not in that left flank on the power play. He
was having to create on his strong side, so to speak, not his
one timer side, while David Perran ran that flank. Now it's almost certainly
gonna be Alex to brink it there, and on a four year deal,
I think that kind of tells Lucas Ram is not probably getting that spot back
anytime soon. How what he took away from last year and playing on that
opposite flank, I think is a huge factor here too, for sure.
And David Perran, you mentioned he had twenty four goals, thirty two assists
fifty six points in a full set of eighty two games. He was second
in points on this team, two and a half shots a game, well
over hit per game. The thirty five year old Perron's first year of a
two year deal in Detroit was somewhat below what he was doing in his most
recent Saint Louis stint. He is the other first line right wing option maybe
for this team, depends how you scramble all these wingers up. Like you
said, if you're following the money, Perran would be in a top role.
He and Raymond flip flopped his linemates of Larkin quite a bit last year.
I think I understood one of your mail bank answers in The Athletic recently
to suggest Purran would be a good balance to to bring it on another wing.
But what should we expect to Purran for this last year before he presumably
returns to Saint Louis yet again like the monarch, butterflies migrate back every year.
That's right, Yeah, I think a big question will be the deployment.
We talked about that powerplay spot that I expect we'll go to the brink
it now. Does that move Puran down to It? Feels a little aniquated
to call it the NetFront role at this point because it seems like it's just
as much the goal line role, right you're facilitating from down there, and
then maybe you work to the NetFront for a tap and I think he'd be
excellent at it, to be honest, That's what I would do. But
we'll see what Derek Loan has in mind for him. I'm very curious,
but you alluded to my theory that he makes the most sense as the opposite
linemate for it to bring it, because I think he's really good down low.
He's really savvy. He's really hard to get the puck off of.
He brings a little more of that grit and a little more of heaviness,
frankly to that line that I think he can win some pocks for Larkin and
to bring it. Larkin's really good at that too. But I think you
don't want to ask your center to be below the offensive goal line too much
because they have all the defensive responsibility of getting back and I think having him
on that line would make a ton of sense. It's also another really smart
offensive player. He doesn't maybe have the foot speed that Larkin does, or
even to bring it does. It's just not who he is at this stage
in his career more really, it's some of the early stages in his career.
But I don't think that's a big problem, to be honest. I
used to think that was a big factor. I remember when they remonstrated and
joys Athena su to McDavid. I was convinced that that was what it was
going to take to really unlock Ath and to SeeU Is finally play him with
someone as fast as him. They didn't really get much time together. That
was the belief that was the COVID season, but it nevertheless, I think
it changed my perspective on what speedy players need to play with and who needs
to play with speedy players. It doesn't actually matter to me if they can
really keep that same pace, because it's just as good if they're coming in
as a trailer and the player with speed can find them. So I like
that idea for a line Larkin to bring it in Puran, but we'll see
other Edmonds choose to try them out. There's really a bunch of forwards on
this team, so I'm going to put two of them together, give you
pick them. We got Andrew Copp, we got JT. Comfer, and
there are different types of guys. Twenty eight year old cop notch forty two
points. He was tied for fifth on the team, took most of the
faceoffs that Larkin didn't. Between the two of them, sixty two percent of
the faceoff wins for the whole team. Confer was signed away from Colorado,
on the other hand, where he spent the first seven years of his NHL
time. He's got the second longest deal of anybody on the team now and
with the Abs, notched fifty two points in eighty two games at over twenty
minutes a night last year. Sounds like you're expecting him to play a lot
of center again. I'm cheating and looking at your mail bags, Max for
the team. Two of the more prominent signings of the team in recent years.
Who will have the bigger impact as Red Wing this coming season? Sure
this season are going forward? Whichever answer is better. It's funny because I
think they're such similar players. I think you know that they're both. They're
both Michigan centers first of all, and so it was Dylan Larkin. It's
funny that the Red Wings now have a three Wolverines down the middle. There
but two way guys that I don't think derive like the bulk of their value
from their point production. But Ken put some points on the board for you.
I think Cop really stands to have a bounce back. He entered last
season off of abdominal surgery and I think it really hampered him for the first
couple of months, and I think fully healthy down the stretch, you saw
him come on a little more. You saw him move a lot better,
I thought, And I think Comfer's arrival is going to take a big chunk
of the burden he was taking so many tough matchups last season because he was
one of their best matchup centers, and Comfort will be that too. Comfort.
Also, they didn't have a right shot center at all, and I
think Cop had to get put in a lot of starts that maybe weren't favorable
to him where he was on a dot. Maybe that is an advantageous to
a left shot center, and you lose that draw, you start in the
d zone and stuff piles on. I think having Comfort is going to really
help Andrew Cop and I would predict a bounce back for him in the neighborhood
of I think he had less than ten goals last year. I'm not saying
he's going to go back to being the twenty goal score he was the year
they signed him, but it wouldn't shock me if he's up at fifteen,
sixteen goals and over fifty points this season, partly because JT. Comfort took
some burden off of him, partly because he'll be healthier, and maybe he'll
be with Lucas Raymond, which would help to The Red Wings are just acquiring
all the Michigan players. That's the goal, yeah them In Columbus Yoh,
that's true. Yeah, that was really fun with Brindley this draft. Yeah,
and Fintilly and they got Wrenski in there. It's they're stacking him up,
yeah, which is funny for an Ohio team. That's right, that
team up North. Let's do another pick him here. I'm so interested to
get your take on a couple of these guys. Daniel Sprong, Jonathan Burgran.
Sprong did really incredible things for Seattle this season and eleven twenty five time
on ice, he put up twenty one goals and twenty five assists for forty
six points fifty seven point pace if you just look at even strength points per
sixty In the NHL, there's a bunch of superstars McDavid, dry Siddle,
Robertson, McKinnon, Kachuck, Gutrov, TJ Thompson, RNH, Jack Hughes,
Elias Petterson, and Daniel Sprong. One of these is not like the
other. I don't really understand how he doesn't get more time on ice because
he's clearly very good. Maybe some guys are just efficient and more time isn't
better. I guess that's possible, but it's not like he's bad defensively,
either like, he seems to be a very strong two way player, so
I'm wondering if he can even improve upon that. If he could get just
a little bit more time on ice, maybe he could be a sixty plus
point player sixty five. I don't know. And on the other hand,
Bergran played sixty seven games in the NHL last season, along with seven Etil
games and seven World Chant people only pace in the NHL with thirteen twenty eight
time on ice. Spron would love to get that much time on ice.
So what do you think about these two? Does Sprong get a bigger role,
can he up his strong production with or the low time on ice,
or does Bergrand take a big step forward? What do you think about There's
two ways to take the whenever you see a discrepancy like that in the purse
sixties, right like and this was a thing with Verona when he was in
Detroit to the first way you can look at it, and I think it's
the way that a lot of people choose to is, Oh, this guy's
clearly really good. He's not getting enough minutes. If they gave him more
minutes, he would ascended to the level of these other players who produce at
that rate. The other way to look at it is to say, he
produces at this rate and he's still not getting these minutes. What are we
missing that his coach is seeing that is causing him to not get those minutes.
Usually the answer is some kind of defensive fear or matchup fear that if
I put him out against X Y Z play He's going to get caved or
something like that, or they feel like they need to shelter the role.
And I'm very curious to see have not seen a ton of Sprong's game the
last couple of years, but I think when he came in, certainly the
offense was the big calling card. A Seattle obviously put up a ton of
goals last year, and so that's a pretty conducive scoring environment, even in
low minutes. But I'm very curious to see what he looks like in Detroit.
My guess is I think he and Bergan both probably will be more in
that like thirteen to fourteen minute range this year. Just because of the depth
of the Red Wings have added higher up in the lineup, I think is
going to take some minutes away. Dominic Kubalik was started out in a kind
of a similar down lineup role that Sprong did last year, but he worked
his way up mainly because the Red Wings were so banged up and so thin.
I'm not sure that the same thing is going to happen this year for
Sprong to get high lineup opportunities, but with three legit kind of top nine
centers now, I think the odds are good that he will get at least
sometime in the top nine with one of those guys, whether it's Cop or
Comfer, and either of those two, frankly could do that Joe Valno two.
It would be very interesting, I think to see a line of Bergan,
Joe Valno and Daniel Sprang, partly because Sprong is one of their best
pier finishers and Bergan is one of their best peer setup men. I think
at one point I even projected that as the fourth line, and I would
be very curious to see that as a line. Valeno actually has connections to
both of them, and Bergen are good friends, and I think he and
Daniel Sprung are from a similar area of Montreal, maybe trained together in the
summer, so it could be some interesting chemistry between those three if they were
play him together. I'm not sure that I'm expecting Sprong to repeat his numbers
from last year. I frankly, I think it's likely he takes a little
bit of a step back, but we'll see. And obviously the power plays
a big thing for him too. If if the Red Wings having kind of
a stronger second unit this year comes to fruition, as I know, they're
hoping he could be one of the guys who drives that, who benefits from
that as well. Burgan will be interesting. He is not. He's a
really exciting player. They don't have a lot of guys him with his creativity,
his vision. I don't think he's a lock to play every single night.
He's still a young player, and they're gonna harp on his defense and
they're gonna really want to make him prove that they can trust him. And
so there's I think a little bit of risk there. There's also a lot
of upsides. He's immensely talented, very smart player. Two guys I'm really
interested in seeing two And I don't know that I'm going to know a whole
lot for sure until we get twenty thirty games into the season. To tell
you how it's gonna go. This one is just fun for us. A
couple of depth guys who are, as you said, bangers league specialists.
Elmer Soderblam, Clym Coston. We'll put him head to head. It's like
Godzilla versus King Kong. Here. Elmer is six eight eight points in twenty
one games. Clem's only sixty three. But after he got free from Saint
Louis and spend a year in Edmonton, he put up twenty one points in
fifty seven games and was in the top twenty five forwards of six hundred who
qualified in minutes in terms of hits per sixty. He was hitting every time
he was out there, and Detroit liked him enough to bring him in for
two years two million per and presumably both are gonna have depthline roles. Are
either of them going to hang on to a significant role this season and maybe
not get the healthy scratches and get out there and throw some hits every night.
Between the two, I would take cost in all day in that.
I think Soderblum is six eight. He does not yet throw his body around.
His thing is more his skill. He's got frankly astounding hands for a
man his size, but did not carve out the full time role last year.
It's going to be on him to take somebody's spot going into this year,
and I think Costin they want to get tougher, and I think that's
why they brought him in. He's another one that I think is going to
have to fight for the role. But I really do see him playing sixty
five seventy plus games for the Red Wings. And you mentioned the hits per
sixty thing. That's exactly why they brought him in. It's exactly what they're
gonna want to see him do. Honestly, I'd probably take him even in
a non bangers format over Soderblum, but in a banger's format, I'm taking
him all day. Tremendous and in defense, the defenseman Gostas Bear is the
first up here. He's the forty fifth best defenseman in Fantasy hockey. Last
year he thrived in Arizona eighty two points in one hundred and thirty four games
across the two seasons he was there, two shots and a block per game,
rounded up the skill set twenty two and a half minutes when he was
in Arizona. Then he took a detour to Carolina and has moved to a
more crowded blue line in Detroit than he's seen in a few years. His
careers definitely had ups and downs, but honestly, it's been pretty good since
the late Philly time when he really was bottoming out. Sounds like you might
have him slotted in is at least a short term heronic replacement if I'm reading
right. But could he get a similar twenty two minutes a night, and
could he get some power play one time? Or they're just too many good
defenseman that we haven't talked about yet who were going to take that role.
It's possible that he could get power play one time. Yes, I think
that they want a power play quarterback. Would not shock me if they went
with him over more at Cider, But we're gonna have to see. I
think Cider is gonna want to have something to say about that too. In
terms of the ice time, I have to say, I'm not sure that
I see him getting twenty two and a half minutes in Detroit. Maybe it
could happen, certainly if he has power play one that helps his odds.
I think I see him more in the nineteen to twenty range, but we'll
see. I think when he did go to Carolina. He was playing seventeen
minutes a night, and Detroit's blood is not as good as Carolina, but
it's also a lot better than the Arizonas. And so I think he's gonna
have to carve out a second pair role to get into the twenties. I
think it's totally possible that he does that, but I don't see him playing
on the top pair. I think that Jake Walman and Mort Cider were excellent
faither last year. I assume they're going to stay together. And then the
Mings kind of have four guys who you would probably if you had your pick
of things, probably play all four of them on third bears, but two
of them are gonna have to play on the second, that being Shane Gossis
Bear, Ben Sharaz, Jesin Holland, Olimta, Simon Edvandson may work his
way into that mix at some point too. So he's got as good a
shot as any of those guys is playing on the second pair. But I
also would say all those guys have as good a shot of him of doing
it too. That's true training camp battle to sort out. If he gets
the minutes, you'd expect with Shane gossip Spier. Okay, you bring him
in, He's gonna get thirty to forty points for you on the back end,
probably ten goals on the back end, be a difference maker on the
power play. That's why you add him. But I think that even strength
role is probably going to determine just where that falls in that range. Yeah,
definitely. I was a little skeptable about that ad just because Cider has
done such a good job and they do have some other defenseman that can fill
that role. But he's there now, so we'll be interesting to see what
he does. And that's now shift to talk about most Cider as the one
d here. And he slid back a little bit from his rookie season fifty
point pace in his rookie season forty two point pace. Last season, his
block shots hits, his bash was rated at fourth for his position with similar
time on ice. He's just a beast in that regard. And when you
look at you mentioned him doing really well with Walman, and I think that
was a huge change. If you look at Michael Mica, Blake McCurdy has
some really good smooth ice time, it shows that in the beginning of the
season he was with Sharrott almost exclusively, and then that kind of switched close
to the middle of the season, and when you look at his replacements,
literally everyone on the ice with Cider made him worse except Jake Walman and Ben
Sharratt was quite the anchor for him. I think that was a big reason
why he maybe didn't do was what past season, And so I hope that
pairing continues with Walman because he seems to do much better and that seems to
open him up to do a little bit more. So do you expect maybe
a little bit more of a step forward from Cider this upcoming season playing with
Walman, maybe getting back to that fifty plus point pace that he had in
his rookie season. What do you think we can expect from most Cider this
year? Yeah, I do think that's reasonable and realistic. Part of it
depends on the power play. A lot of his production is going to come
on the power play. If he gets done to PP two, maybe your
expectations for the point totals change. I gotta say, though, while that's
true about he played a lot better with Walman, part of that is he
was just playing better, right, I think It's really easy to say once
he switched away from Sharatt he got better. But if you go back and
you watch some of those early season games last year, some of this was
just Cider off an amazing Calder winning rookie season, forcing plays early in the
season, And I would have a hard time blaming Ben Sharatte for that.
Sharrott did not have a great first season Detroit, There's no way around that.
But I think it's a little too convenient to just say, oh,
that's the reason that Cider started off a little slower too. I think that
was a lot of his own doing and he self corrected it as even as
his parent with Sharatt went on. And then I just think he and Walman
are a great fit together. They're both such excellent skaters, and frankly so
Sharratt, but Walman maybe not chasing the hits quite as much. The two
of them just seemed to really work well together, outstanding rush defenders, transition
the puck up ice really well, so that I do think that will be
remain a pairing next season. Is good for both of them. But I
don't think it's just quite as simple as getting him away from Sharatt fair,
that's why you're the expert analyst. No, that you're right. I'm sure
there was big expectations coming off the Calderwin and trying to do a little much.
And I do think it's interesting though, and what it does to a
player when someone like Sharad is chasing the big hit and the physicality, right,
It changes your read on the situation that might have affected Cider a little
bit different way. It changes what you have to do when your partner is
doing that. Yeah, Nope, I think so true, and it's a
valid thing for sure, But I do think that some of those turnovers were
just seemed to be him trying to make a big play sometimes. Yeah,
for sure. Let's talk about some of the other defensemen. You mentioned some
of them already, and I think the first two we already talked about are
the main ones that are going to get points for Fantasy. But I'm wondering
if anyone else can get close to thirty five point pace. We've talked about
Walman already. Mata, of course, I'm really excited about Semen Edmondson.
I wonder what kind of role he's going to have. He looked good at
times in his nine game sample size that were definitely some moments that didn't look
as good. But what do you think about Edmondson? Do you think he
can play more than nine games this season in the NHL? Can anyone get
more than thirty five points point pace that's not named Cider or gossips Bear The
best bet I think would be Walman. I don't think we saw the full
extent of his offense last season, but I also would say he's got a
huge shot and I expect he's going to get into the double digit goals this
year, may even be more valuable than just like the raw assists depending on
your league scoring set settings up, but I could see him getting into the
thirties and a lot of those being goals because he is a real weapon activating
and off the point. He'd be the guy I would watch Edmondson. I
do think he's going to play more than nine games this season that I think
he's gonna be a really good player for them. I'm not sure he's gonna
put up crazy point totals, although if he were to run the power play
that obviously would help. But I think I would take both Cider in Gossip
Spear ahead of him running the power play. I don't borrowing that power play
opportunity. I don't know that I see him getting into those kind of totals,
especially if he's going to start the potent actually injured. He had surgery
this offseason, so we'll see where he is in his recovery. But I
don't think he's going to be into the thirties this season. Obviously, different
keeper, dynasty, whatever, that's a different conversation. But yeah, I
think he's a really good player. I just don't know that I see him
getting those kind of point totals this season. Walman would be the guy I
would lead to. Yeah, that's fair. And I know you're a bit
of a prospect expert as well, and I've talked with some of the people
like Mitch Brown, who it's really interesting about these prospect defenseman. Right,
everyone wants to know who's going to run the power play in three to five
years, and obviously no one really knows the answer to that question. But
I know that some really think that Simon Edmondson is the most dynamic and has
the most upside, maybe even more than Cider or anyone else they have here.
Do you think beyond this season that he is the one with the highest
upside or do you think it's more even and really up in the air.
I would lean towards Cider, but I have to say I love Simon Advinson's
game. I think he's incredibly valuable, But just from a fantasy perspective,
I see at this point Evanston does. He's an absolutely gorgeous skater for his
size, and he has great hands. You don't see that out of six
six defensemen often, and I think that's why people will see him and go
the upside here is nuts, and I think that's true. But when I
think of what I have seen from him so far, the things that get
me the most excited are how good his defensive stick is, how much physicality
he's added into his game, and how good he's been transitioning the puck.
Those things are so valuable to an NHL team, and I think make him
for me a future top payer defenseman. But it's not so much yet.
It has not so much yet been all these power play plays. Now,
he does have a real knack for kind of keeping plays alive at the blue
line, and he can make somebody miss at the blue lines, set up
a goal, he had a couple of goals in his nine games last year,
so if you project that out, obviously that's very encouraging. But I
think just from a fantasy perspective, I probably would lean towards Cider, and
I think still in a team building perspective, i'd lean that way too.
But Evanson's upside is really promised. I just when I look at him,
I see more of this future true shutdown guy, you two way guy who
will drive offense, maybe just not be the one getting it in the goal
or assist column. And what an incredible pair that would be. Especially they
are opposite handedness, which makes for a very easy fitting. I'd play them
on different pairs just to make sure that I had one on the ice for
forty five to fifty minutes of every game. That's how I think about it.
Like for me, when you have a guy of that caliber or potential
caliber on your team, it's a huge benefit to know that you can breathe
easy for twenty to twenty five minutes a night. And if I have two,
I'd rather breathe easy for fifty minutes a night rather than breathe really easy
for those twenty five I play them together. Yeah, yeah, No.
It reminds me of like when there was Pronger and Nieda Meier playing together and
it was like, yeah, fifty minutes of the game, you just got
nothing when they were there. That's how I view it. Yeah, yeah,
it's a great point, fantastic. Let's talk about the goalies. The
Wings were ranked fourteenth in expected goals against P sixty and strength according to Evolving
Hockey. They gave up the twenty third actual goals, so a bit of
a slide there in terms of actual versus expected. Of course, mainly we
got to talk about Billy Husso. His first full season in Detroit didn't quite
go as I'm sure everyone would have liked coming over from Saint Louis. Playing
forty games last season where previously he had seventeen or sorry, forty last season
and then seventeen this season before the fifty six in Detroit may have been a
bit much, and he had a negative goal save above expected of seven point
seven eight As Delta. Fenwick was also negative at point four, but playing
a lot of games that might have been an issue for him. He's got
two years left at four point seventy five, very reasonable contract and definitely start
our money, but not breaking the bank. So Max, do you think
Husso was still going to be the unquestioned starter. I have to imagine so,
especially with Rhymer backing him up. I don't really see much of a
challenge there. I don't think their prospect goals are quite ready for the show
yet. So can we expect maybe a bounce back from him if maybe Rhymer
can give him a little bit more support then he had last year? Yeah,
I think that is what it comes down to. I do think the
workload seemed to catch up with him at various points. If you look at
the first two months or so and then the first few weeks out of the
All Star break, that's when he had his best numbers. As the game
started to stack up, that's where he started to have the tough stretches,
and I think you have to wonder if that was fatigue main culprits. You
mentioned Rhymer. Also, Alex Lyon is in there as a guy they brought
in, and it'll be curious. I would guess that Rhymer wins that job
at a camp, but it wouldn't shock me if at some point Alex Lyon
is the primary backup and whoever it is, they need to give Whoso I
think a little more of a breather. I don't know that needs to be
a ton. I think he can play forty five fifty games, but I
think just those extra six games can get you depending on where they're placed,
and they turn a two game week or three game week even into a four
game week, that really can put you in a tough spots. I think
that is the key to whether Whoso can bounce back, And frankly, I
think whether he bounces back is the key to this team is as good as
they think they can be and challenging for a playoff, or if they just
end up right back where they were this season. If he doesn't take a
step, it's very easy for me to envision them being another eighty to eighty
two point team. Let's picking on the top ten. But if he can
take a step, I think you can threaten ninety points, maybe even get
a little above ninety points if he's back to being the goal that he wasn't
Saint Louis. Yeah, very good point. I'm hopeful it seems like he
can. I want to ask you just one more question about the prospect goalies
and we cover them in a different part of the show, but I know
you're really plugged into the team. And Cosa obviously super high pedigree, taken
really early when they traded up in twenty twenty one, and Augustine is who
they took this year. Very different goalies, right, He's much smaller,
like, very competitive, came to the US NITP program, also more of
strong position, very structured in his movements, and Cosa big athletic, good
reactionary saves. It seems like they got the best of both worlds here.
I imagine Cosa still on track. I know some people look at the ECHL
time and think, oh, he's what a bust. They had to put
him in THETHL, But that was my design and he needed to get some
games and some confidence. I imagine he's still on track to maybe two to
three years from now, be their starter. So do you have any comments
on these guys? Yeah, I think it's a huge X factor for the
organization of how Costa develops, right, Like, he was always going to
be a longer term play when they picked him. They could have taken,
yes, for Walstett, who was more of the polished or thing, but
they went for the tools that Coast had, the size, the athleticism,
and I do think it's two or three years away still from the NHL.
Let alone as a starter might even be longer than that. More work to
do there, but that is a huge pivotal factor and how this rebuild goes.
If they can get him to be a top half of the league,
top fifteen starter in the NHL, it's just a massive piece for an NHL
team to have. And if he can't, and if he's just more of
a low end starter, that's going to set you back because it's it is
hard to find those guys. It's why I think they use the round pick
on him. Low end starters you can usually find. The Red Wings traded
a third round pick for one in Billy Husso a couple of years ago.
It's those top half of the league starters, those guys that win you playoff
series, that make it worth using a first round pick on a guy,
even a second round pick like they did on Trey Augustine, a very different
goalie, I think, a little more polished, probably a little quicker path
to the league in terms of from his draft day. They may end up
riding right about the same time, actually, and I'm very curious see how
it goes. He's a much different goalie, much smaller, but still pretty
athletic. It looks pretty comfortable in there. I think they need one of
those two guys to be a top fifteen kind of goal in the league,
and if not, they are going to have to use some major assets to
go find one. So it's a really big X factor for them in the
trajectory of the franchise. Wonderful stuff, Max, Who really appreciate all your
insights on this Detroit Red Wings team. Why don't you let people know if
they don't know already, how they can keep up with your work. Yeah.
The Athletic dot com is our website. You can click on the red
Wings tat and find my stuff that way. I'm on Twitter at at m
underscore Boltman, and you can generally just find me with some variation of that
on most of the platforms and Twitter imitations that have popped up. I gotta
admit I'm not checking them very often, but trying to be ready in case
that the need ever arises. But for now I'm still on on Twitter very
regularly. That's mainly where I post my stuff other than obviously our website tremendous.
YEP. Absolutely we'll be doing that. Max. Thanks so much for
coming on and talking red wings with us. My pleasure, guys. Glad
we finally got it to work out. Wilson, that's good fired passed up.
Oh my goodness, quick grab Now it's your weekly goalie talk with Cats
Silverman Cat's Instincts. Time again for Cat's Instincts with Cat Silverman from End Goal
mag. Of course, with Detroit, we have a really great goalie to
start with, and that is Sebastian Cosa. That was Detroit's twenty one first
round pick fifteenth overall. There was another Swedish goalie that went after that I
thought might have been a better choice, but we'll see how that works out.
Cosa six foot six, two hundred and nine pounds, very large frame.
He had a pretty weak performance at the World Juniors last year, and
this season was pretty interesting for him because after that he was demoted to the
ECHL, where he was actually really good. That might have been more just
about getting reps than any sort of other punishment, but his HL numbers do
look quite poor. During that three game stin small sample size his hockey prospecting.
It's interesting he's trended down since his stellar WHL days, and he still
looks like a fair number of decent goalie Stewart Skinner is one comp that looks
pretty similar to where he's at right now. And I was looking at sport
contract has some underlying numbers of like goal save above expected, save percentage above
expected, and most of these are actually really good, So maybe there is
a little bit more than just looking at the raw numbers. So Kat,
what do your instincts tell you about Cosa? Oh, that's a tough one,
because I like you. I thought there was there was another goaltender who
was available that year. Nobody really knows who that is. It was Jasper
Walstat, and I thought that he was the consensus number one that draft year,
and then they didn't take him, and I thought that was really weird.
I thought Sebastian Cosa was fine, but he was playing on a WHL
team that When I was talking to one of my one of my goalie coach
buddies over in the Prairies, he said, Oh, of course Kosa looks
good. He plays for such a powerful team that it would be a bigger
red flag if he didn't look good. So I watched some of his film
and I thought he looked creative. He's a big guy, and he still
manages to to get some speed going. He he doesn't get too complacent,
doesn't just use that that big frame we talked about, He doesn't just use
that to block pucks. He does a good job of remaining active with his
hands, trying to essentially plug up plays and hold the puck, make sure
that the puck's not going back out into traffic, because he just doesn't have
that same lateral reverse that some smaller, essentially more agile goalies can have.
But I didn't think he was the best goalie in that class. They took
him first, and then they made it known I believe, first that they
were sending him back to the Major Juniors as an overage player, which was
surprising, especially because the WHL didn't have as many shutdowns. It's not like
the OHL where they lost an entire year from COVID. But then they announced
that they were putting him in the ECHL this year, and I thought that
was actually smart all things considered. He didn't look necessarily ready to jump from
being behind a super powerful WHL team to the HL in a rebuilding system.
So giving him that step where he gets consistent reps and not making it seem
like a demotion mid season, just from the get go, saying hey,
this is where he's going, this is where we're assigning him. We're going
to keep him close, we're gonna keep an eye on him, and we're
we're not gonna mess around with floating him up and down because that can mess
with the kid's confidence. I thought that was a sneaky good move on their
part, and he did really well there. He didn't do super well during
his few games in the AHL, but that's okay. That a three game
sample size isn't anything that we need to look at as a huge red flag.
Yet, especially with the number of reps he got in Toledo this year,
I think we're just going to have to I think he's certainly not ready
to make the immediate jump. We've seen so many of those first round guys
over the last couple of years that looked like as soon as they at the
pros, they'd be ready to make their NHL call ups. So we talked
about Urslavaskarov with Nashville. We talked about Spencer Night and how quickly he went
up with Florida, and I just don't think that Cosa is in that tier.
I just don't think. And that's not any fault of his. He's
just not in that elite. Of course, he's going to be an NHL
starter tier. He just looks like a really good goalie who needs a couple
more years of development there. Yeah, I just think it's weird when the
Detroit Red Wings don't take the best suite available at any position, since they're
so heavily in trying to buck that trend so badly that they played themselves.
If I remember correctly, they also traded up for that pick, and I
was like, Oh, cool, they're gonna They're gonna trade up and get
well said, And nope, they took Cosa. We'll see. I'm speaking
of Spencer Night. He's going to come up in a second here because he
relates to the next goalie they took Trey Augustine. As in this recent draft
twenty twenty three second round pick. There was such a run of goalies there
in the second round is crazy. I was at the draft and one of
the one of the people saying, next to me said on the second day,
happy goalie Day, and I was like, what, oh, yeah,
it totally was goalie day. And they were fast and furious. And
I can't remember what number goalie Augustine went, but he was one of the
early ones and he's meant oh, I think he was like the third though,
which is crazy that in the second rounds there were that many in the
top quarter. Yeah, it was fast and furious all of a sudden,
it was disbuilding. Actually I have it right here. So it was Guyan
Harabel Augustine. You're right, he was the third. So Augustine six ft
one hundred and ninety pound goalie. He's actually from Michigan, southlyon Michigan going
he went. He was at the USNTDP who stationed there. He's a Michigan
guy, is going to Michigan State and he was drafted by the Michigan team.
So it's just all Michigan there. Great story for him and he was
really good for the us NTDP that the team was really good this year,
and sometimes that can be hard to play for such a high flying team.
And in that gold medal game for the UA teens, he the team looked
awful and he really kept a minute that whole game until they could figure out
their offense and score a couple of goals and win. So I from what
I've seen from him, and I know Golie expert, I really liked the
between the years part, like the compete level. He seems like he's really
got that even though he's not the biggest guy, and I don't know if
he's the most athletic, but I really like some of the intangibles that I've
seen from him, and looking at just some other USNTTP guys I mentioned Night,
he actually looks pretty similar to Spencer Night currently. His draft season equivalency
was slightly higher than Nights. Actually, of course we saw a nice linear
upward trajectory of Night though, So we don't know what's going to happen with
Augustine. But this system that he's in makes sense though too, because Cosa
is so much farther ahead. I think that's a kind of nice placement for
him. So, Cat, what are your instincts tell you about Augustine?
Does he have the potential to maybe challenge Cosa one day? It's going to
be years from now, but what do you think. I think it's smart
that Detroit went with a goaltender who potentially could spend four years developing in the
collegiate system, just because we like we saw with Coosa, there was whether
it was the right thing or not. There were people murmuring when he spent
an over gar, and there were people murmuring when he went to the ECHL,
and too many major junior guys. If you don't have that immediate confident
knowledge that either number one, they're going to need to spend a ten of
time in the HL, or number two that they're going to be ready to
go pro pretty quickly if you take them in those top rounds, it can
create just an arab uncertainty if they don't immediately follow the path that everyone wants
to see them on. So it's nice seeing someone that will get that breathing
room. I like we plays. I think that sometimes with the US and
the National Development Program, you see some guys who watching them play, you
hope that something is going to drastically change before they go pro because you just
don't really understand what makes them the best school in the United States. And
then others you've seen you really understand what they're doing there. And I'd say
he falls in the latter category, really seems to thrive and shine when plays
are getting really crowded around the net. He's good at seeing through traffic,
He's good at remaining calm, does a good job at just maintaining his structural
foundation when it comes to his technical game, even when the play in front
of him gets a little haywire. Which with the National Development program, just
because they play so many different teams from so many different levels throughout the course
of the year. They play college teams, they play USHL teams, a
lot of those guys play on the national teams they had to play at their
countries, and he just does a good job of maintaining Blake Spencer and I
just thought consistency in his game, where he knows his technical foundation and he
holds it regardless of the level of skill he's playing against, which is one
of the things that I liked seeing at night, and I'm hoping we'll get
to keep seeing it in August Seine two. Definitely, I'm excited for these
two and thanks so much for giving us your instincts on the Detroit Red Wings
goalies. Of course, we'll be back right after this good dynasty Diggs.
This is too good digging for the Detroit Red Wings. Victor's rankings have these
team ranked seventh, tied for seventh in the league. That's a summary of
the rankings of the time prospects on the team. Your Compulsory Weekly mentioned they
chose Nate Danielson in round one, which it's almost a meme at this point
because we've talked about Nate Danielson many times, and usually not in a complimentary
light, but we're not covering him today. We're also not covering Exel sandein
Pelica. We're covering some of the guys who were already in this prospect system.
Victory, you are very familiar with this system. You spend a lot
of time analyzing it for dabber prospects I know, and it starts out with
our no brainer. Who's our no brainer? Victor. One of my favorites,
Simon Edmondson. He was the twenty twenty one sixth overall pick. Six
foot six, two hundred and sixteen pound left handed d was in the HL
this season after a nine game NHL trial where he looked really good at times.
Watching those games, he definitely looked like he could hang. He probably
could have hanged all season, but I know they wanted to get him a
lot more reps and more role in the HL, so he spent most of
the time there. Five goals twenty two assists in fifty two games, and
in the two nine games he played with Detroit he had two goals, no
assist, which is weird. But he did have shoulder surgery in May first
and so that projects to have him out four to six months. As we
talked about earlier, that could be an issue with him and potentially not being
ready for training camp. That depends on how the recovery goes, how he's
feeling, and sometimes those Saints can get tweaked and be out longer. He's
got three years left on the entry level contract. Definitely should be in line
to compete for a major role this year, even with the Red Wings,
depending on how the shoulder feels. Jacob Stoller has his really awesome player cards
that he puts together, and he has sma Edmondson at a forty nine percent
game score, which is not great, but there's some really good parts and
also important to mention that he was a top pairing defenseman in the HL.
So the things that are really tops for him, the corsi against and expected
goals against were top ten percent of the league. He also had really good
finishing, and maybe that's hinted at in his two NHL goals. I don't
know that's interesting. He also was really high for goals and assists, but
really low in shots, which is interesting because he was a volume shooter growing
up in his previous spots, especially in Rogela, and his actual expected goals
for and Coursey four were not as good. So maybe that's just being a
younger guy in a really tough league. I'm not really sure what to make
of that, but overall, I don't think that this player card points to
any major issues with Edvanson. It might have just been the role he was
asked to play. But we need to learn a little bit more about what
makes c One Evanson so good, and from that we get to hear from
our FHL scout. Our scouting reports today are all from FHL scout Jeremy.
Jeremy, our chief scout, are awesome dude who just gets it done for
us, and we really appreciate this guy. He stepped in and did some
stuff last minute. Let's just say we have skating the first thing to say
about Evanson is the skating is elite. One of the best skating defensive prospects.
Long, powerful strides that allow him to cover ground quickly, very strong
on the skates, passing handling above average. Evans is not going to wow
anyone of his hands, says Jeremy. But he's an efficient past sort of
good vision. Shooting good doesn't seem much here, doesn't seem to join the
rush a ton isn't shooting to score from the point, which is rare among
defenseman anyway. Jeremy says IQ above average, good at reading the play both
offensively and defensively, defense, rush and in zone. Above average viscality in
front of the net will endear him to coaches and teammates, and he has
a deft poke check. I do find him stationary a bit often for my
liking, which keeps him from the elite rating. Best asset, then,
is speed, if coached and utilize correctly, that could be both an offensive
and defensive threat. Biggest concern. Doesn't look to shoot or create on his
own as much, seemingly reliant on teammates to drive the offense. Top tier
role. What's his top outcome? Top line power Play one if not brought
by Cider power Play two otherwise, Yes, Jeremy still thinks that Cider is
the better offensive talent of the two. And the median outcome for this guy
a really good second or third pairent, shutdown guy. Stylistic comparable he goes
with Charlie macavoy. So that's the eye test. Combined with those stats that
we just gave you. The information that we get from the NHL ranking shows
that he is about between first line and second line potential, not a bad
thing for a guy who's just breaking in. And in terms of a comparison,
Mason Black gives us Simon Evanson versus Pavlo Minschikov, and which one you'd
rather have on your fantasy team? The incredibly sexy anaheim Duck who's popping up,
popping out these days and has moved to the top of that ladder for
some or Edmonson, who's maybe he's been there for a couple of years perhaps,
And the poll came out Pablo Minschikov fifty four to forty six over Simone
Edmondson. Victor Evanson's your guy, but I know you're also a Minshikov stand,
So is this the same way do you see Minschikov in a buy a
nose? This is really tough. I do really like both of these and
I'm sure you can consider the system that each are in. And Minshikov obviously
has Zelwegger, and there's Drysdale and some other guys there too. I do
think he's probably the top of that crop. And actually, in our Mitch
Brown episode, we spent quite a bit of time offline talking to him about
these the duck situation, and he was interesting. He really talks about how
they're all a little different, so they can all be top pairing defenseman but
have different types of roles and so anyways, I think Minshikov is great,
and I do think he actually has pretty decent all around potential and top power
play kind of thing. And Edmondson similarly, can have some issues in terms
of being a little bit blocked. Obviously there's Cider there, there's some other
good defenseman. Wallman was good. Obviously they have Gosta spare now, so
it's gonna be a little bit tricky for him. But the thing I like
about both these guys is that their bash projects to be elite, So both
of them are going to have a really high floor. They have an offensive
upside, but they also have kind of an all around just do everything get
you points in lots of ways and a floor for them, and so I
like them both. Right now, currently have Edmondson ranked eighth and Minschikov thirteenth.
That probably sounds farther apart than it is. I think the full the
poll is fifty four forty six, and I think for me it's probably even
closer than that. It might just come down to team preference and how close
they are. And Evanson is literally ready to walk into the NHFL right now
as some of the shoulders fine, So that is potentially a tiebreaker for me,
and so I think God would lean Edmondson just because I've liked the progression
every step of the way. Minchikov is good as he has been, is
still on the OHL and still has to prove that he can do it at
another level. And Edmondson has basically been proving this in the professional ranks from
the very beginning, since he was playing in Sweden against bigger, tougher,
stronger competitions. Yeah, I'm gonna go Edmondson. It's pretty close. Though,
and both of these are great options. So if you look at the
hockey prospecting model, yeah, Edmondson is one year farther along, and so
his star potential has dropped a little bit, or actually it held steady twelve
percent. Didn't look quite as good, which is unfortunate. But as NHL
or probability is really high, and Minchikov actually raised his from nine percent to
twenty percent after his draft season, which is really nice. That's really hard
to do, especially in the OHL, So you gotta really like that.
And I would think that this basically looks similar for them. It's not too
much different. In terms of Sin's other comps. A lot of them are
really good. It's got some John Carlson justin Fulk. Sean Dursey is one
guy. I think he looks a lot alike, and I think, especially
for the strong peripheral coverage, that's probably a pretty appropriate comp that Nate put
in here. And really like that, so probably something similar. I think
Edmondson has more potential to be a one D than a Shan Dursey type does,
but we'll see. I like the size and the physicality that he has.
I should mention that the top down hockey model with Jay Fresh has a
much more conservative view of Edmondston. They have just four percent chance of being
a star, but a ninety nine percent chance of being an NHL or so,
so there's that chassee for sure. I think there's no doubt we're going
to see him playing at what is it Little Caesar's Marena these days, No
doubt about it. Victor. Next up, you've got your need to know
prospect. Who is it? Yeah, they need to know is Carter Mazer?
Twenty one third round pick, six foot zero, one hundred and seventy
two pound left wing. Played primarily in the NC DOUBAA this season for the
University of Denver. Won a national championship with them a couple of years ago,
and they were a little not as good this year. Still a really
strong NC DOUBA team and he had a fantastic season for them. He had
twenty two goals, fifteen assists thirty seven points in forty games. That's pretty
incredible production. He also had three goals three assists in six games for Grand
Rapids. That was pretty incredible to show off point per game potential in the
HL. At the end of his college season, Denver didn't go quite as
far this year. He also was then selected to represent the USA at the
World Championship against men. Remember this is a really weird tournament where they have
like college guys and pros that aren't in the NHL playoffs, and he did
pretty well. Four points in ten games may not sound like a lot,
but it's a pretty tough jump for him, and he definitely looked not out
of place there, So I think that's about as good as you can hope
for. He will probably be with Grand Rapids and start of the season.
I guess there's a possibility he pushes for a spot in camp, but I
don't really think he's ready, even though he looked really good in the HL.
Will benefit from a full season there. And he did sign his entry
level after leaving Denver this season, so he's definitely not going back there.
So that's good to know. But we need to learn a little bit more
about Carter Maser. So we get to hear this again from our boy Jeremy
stepping up. What do we got Jesse? Jeremy got it done. Talking
about Carter Major, he says the skating is above average, a good skater,
but could use to gain some strength on his feet. Passing handling average.
His mind works a bit faster than his hand, but the right ideas
there for passes. Shooting average to above average. He can pick his spots
when given time, but often seems reticent to shoot, and he looks for
the perfect opportunity. The IQ above average. Maser is good at finding soft
spots to wait for passes and also cut enough assum leans. Defensively, he
processes the game at an NHL level already for checking elite, he consistently hounds
the puck carrier, applying pressure and forcing bad decisions. Defense elite. A
true two hundred foot player, Miser is not afraid to go to the goal
line to goal line as a wing. He always looks for the right place
to be and helps out his teammates in the zone. So the best asset
is for checking and intensity. Biggest concern the offense is not translating, Jeremy
says. The hustle and attitude are there to the point where he will be
a fan favorite regardless of the role, but he may not be fantasy relevant.
Is warning there, of course, we need to keep that in mind.
Top tier role, where could he get up to second line all situations
guy is where Jeremy could see him peeking out tough matchups, penalty kill time,
net front on powerplay one or leading power play two. Despite the four
checking skill, does not see the banger upside on this guy and percent role.
The median outcome for mister Mazer bottom six energy forward with three points a
season. Stylistic comparable Yanni Gord everybody's favorite guy you'd love to have on your
team. The motor is similar, as is the ability to pitch in on
offense, even though the skills are not elite. The NHL ranking data for
the NHL EO similarity score comes out about to that just a touch above second
line potential is where Carter Maser comes in. And then we're going to compare
him, and we're going to compare him to Isaac Howard, who was the
first round pick of the Tampa Bay Lightning, not this year but last year.
And in comparing the poll came out Isaac Howard fifty four forty six.
Once again, the Red Wing loses buy and knows what happened to all the
Red Wing prospect towns who are waiting for their prospects to come up because they
didn't win this one. Is that how you would see it too, Victor,
Yeah, I definitely. I think it's closeness is close. I like
Maser, and as Jeremy mentioned, I'm just not sure that the offense is
going to translate to this top tier level. He is someone who just has
a nose for the net. Though he's fights, he has a good shot.
I think he can be a pretty depth, good depth scorer at the
NHL level. I'm just not sure, as he pointed out, how much
fantasy value that's going to have, right, Those kind of depth forwards usually
aren't too exciting. If she does twenty goals twenty assists, that's like,
probably pretty good for him, but not great for your fantasy team, right.
So I think Howard probably has a little bit more upside than that.
And he's in the Tampa Bay system, which is pretty devoid of pretty high
upside guys with talent, So I like that. I do think that Howard
probably has a higher upside, even though right now neither one of them look
that exciting. Maser has never really popped off to be that great, but
I think Howard still has a big, pretty good potential. He looks great
at He looked great last year at the USNTDB and transitioning to University of Minnesota
Duluth. That's a big step, and he didn't have the biggest role,
so being roughly half point per game wasn't too bad, but it made his
star potential shoot way down did Isaac Coward. So that's a little bit part
of what maybe looks a little off. He came in HEASA Coward came in
at forty percent chance of being a star, and I was down to twelve
percent. But I think that was just a kind of a rough bump at
the US at the NCAA, so I think he has a little bit more
upside than that. Major Basically, if you look at his hockey prospecting,
it's pretty sad he's zero percent chance of being a star all four years,
which is not what you want, Jesse, that's not what you want.
So I think, yeah, definitely has to go Howard here. There's more
potential, more upside. Frankly, I'm not even sure it's that close according
to according to this poll, just because maybe Major is doing a little bit
more now. So you might look at his HL production and go ooh,
that's fantastic. But I don't know. If I had Major, I would
sell him for Howard instantly, no question. And the rest of the comps
for Major looks like mostly replacement level guys. No one that's super that interesting.
Mkhil Volkov is one of the comps that Nate put in here, which
yeah, no one probably remembers, so not super exciting. Tap down hockey
model. Similarly pessimistic one percent chance of being a star for cater Carter Major
and actually only six percent chance of being an NHLer. That second number is
probably crazy low, but yeah, I don't really expect too much from him,
Jesse, but I think it's worth it in a league where you want
someone who's pretty close and you're going to find out right away for sure.
And Victor. The last of these who is the keep your eye on prospect
our keep your eye on is Marco Casper, twenty two eighth overall pick six
one two pounds center played a full season in the SHL for roguelub BK.
Eight goals fifteen assists in fifty two games. Wasn't what we were hoping for.
Twenty three points in fifty two games when he had eleven last year and
forty six and we were hoping for a lot more, especially he was playing
so young in the SHL and he's an April birthdate, so he's pretty much
playing the whole season a year younger than everyone, so he's hoping for a
little bit more progression. He played six more games and put up eleven twelve
more points, so that's not bad. You were hoping for a little bit
more progression from him. He did sign his entry level after that, and
he did play one game with the Detroit Red Wings broke his kneecap, actually
finished the game, which was crazy. Tough guy. Seems like he should
be fine ready for the HL next season. He probably will push for a
spot in camp, and with all the recent acquisitions they made down the middle,
I think it's possible that he could make the team because they probably won't
ask him to do anything in the top six, so you can probably handle
a bottom six roll. But we need to learn a little bit more about
micro Casper Jesse's so let's hear from RFHL S. Jeremy has been watching tape
and I think he's happy with it. Skating elite, Casper has both street
line speed and side to side movement. Both fast and shifty and should give
even NHL defenders fits along the board at coming out of the corners, passing
and handling above average. He's got a good shot, but he needs to
shoot more. He was much more a garbage collector and grinder in the games
I saw as opposed to a rush shooter IQ above average. Casper's anticipation on
rebounds and loose Pucks's phenomenal, often beating opponents to take them to take over
possession. Elite Casper is not overly physical, but is diligent on the puck
and good at creating chances off his pressure. Defense average strong in pursuit,
but he has a habit of getting sucked down low in the zone. He's
also a touch late to start hustling back after eternal So the biggest asset here
speed. He uses it to create chances on offense and force the play on
defense. Biggest concern lacks a bit of defensive effort at times, but Jeremy
suspects this won't be an issue. So what's the top outcome for this guy?
Jeremy thinks it could be a point per game top line center. That
would be perd arn nice for Detroit and the median outcome where this guy could
come out sixty sixty ish point second line center who gets some hits and the
stylistic comparable a higher upside Nasim Cadre. Everybody loved Naso Cadre a couple of
years ago. He got paid that guy, So maybe Marco Casper's got some
chances too. The pnhl E equivalency score or similarity score is coming out just
a little bit above second line potential. Matt Calvert, Scott Lawton, Rasmus
aspland are the guys who comes out similar too, so that's not quite as
enthused the numbers. But don't like him as much as Jeremy does. But
Marco Casper, in the poll that our good buddy Mason Black put up,
compared Marco Casper to Matthew Coronado of the Calgary Flames and late of the Harvard
Crimson, And for the third time in a row, the Detroit Red Wing
gets slightly nosed out by the competition Coronado over Casper fifty three forty seven.
In a split decision victor shouldn't we put cap shouldn't we give the Wings fans
one here? Or his Coronado the decisively better prospect. I think he is
better, and it's not that we don't like Casper, and I think in
real life I'm taking Casper for sure. I think having that middle six potentially
one see, you're going to take that all day, every day. But
I think Coronado has more value and fantasy. He's probably a winger, and
that can be a little bit easier to get relevance. When you're on the
wing. You don't have to do his much defensively. Not the Coronado is
bad defensively. He probably cheats a little bit for offense though, But yeah,
I think that he's better. You look at the trajectory on hockey prospecting
and he's been pretty much double or more of the star potential of Casper all
the whole way. It is worth noting, though, that Coronado is a
November birthday, so he's really old for his draft class, and Casper April
eighth is really young for his so there's not quite a year's worth of difference,
more than six months, So there's some potential difference there and that might
play in a little bit. So Casper still has more of a runway Coronado.
It's been a little easier for him to play against the tougher, bigger
competition. He's had some nice representation at the World Juniors. He's played at
Harvard the last two years been basically a point per game. I really like
this about Matt Coronado. He had exactly the same point totals in both his
NC Double A campaigns, thirty six points and thirty four games. Each time
freshman saw runn have to do any math to just know what the numbers are.
So I really appreciate that math. That's really smart of you. That's
probably why you're at Harvard. Good job. And but no, I think
he has more upside and he's knocking on the door. He played one game
for the Calgary Flames and he looked really good, and that one game,
it was like, why why did we not playing this guy more? Was
basically what it seemed like. He also went to the World Championships and we
talked about Carter Maser and Matt Coronado went and he had eight points in ten
games. So talking about looking really good, showing up Carter Maser there,
I guess a little bit. But no, I think Coronado has way more
upside. He's better in the prospect pool too. I definitely like him.
If you look at some of other Casper's comps, he's looking Maybe I didn't
say it, but he's down to eight percent chance of being a star now
forty seven percent chance of being an NHL, So a lot of his comps
look like kind of replacement level people or potentially bus Nick Bukes Dad is someone
who looks like in this model, mathematically not necessarily stylistically abused at it's a
much bigger, more kind of power forward type, but anyways, average producer.
That's potentially what we could have to look forward to for Casper. I
think that's a pretty possible outcome. Hopefully Casper can find more offense, and
as Jeremy said, maybe he does end up being more of a top of
the line player, but I think he could also easily settle into being just
a middle six center. So the top down hockey model also a little bit
more pessimistic six percent chance of being a star, sixty sixty five percent chance
of being an NHL or so. Yeah, definitely not as exciting for Casper,
but he's still a good player, and I am still excited that he
looks like he's going to be close to being NHL already. I think these
guys are both really close, but Cornaro being a year older, probably a
little bit closer. But yeah, that's all we have time for. You
can listen to my top ten lists if your patron on Patreon. I just
recorded a bunch of these, so you can even some of the ones we
haven't done yet. I actually did a couple of these, so banging a
bunch of them out. They're really hopefully interesting for your likst into And if
you're interested in doing some scouting with us, you can shoot me a DM
on Twitter, Discord, or send us an email. Get some really great
access to some good stats and videos. So if you're interested in, let
us know and we'll be right back after this. You close up a show,
Well that was a good time. How about that next Bolton? Wait
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